Review of Bucks/Rockets 2012 NBA Draft Day Eve Trade

For the second year in a row Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond made a trade on the eve of the draft.  Last year the Bucks pulled off a three team trade on the day of the draft.

This year the Bucks pulled off a two team trade the day before the draft.  The Bucks traded Jon Brockman, Jon Leuer, Shaun Livingston, and the 12th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft to the Houston Rockets for Samuel Dalembert, the 14th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, a future second round pick, and cash considerations.

Despite giving up three players and only taking back one, the Bucks added roughly $1.5 million (that might be covered by the "cash considerations" of the trade) in salary for next season in the trade presuming that the Bucks exercise their $6.7 million team option for Dalembert for next season.  The Rockets could gain a fair amount of cap space by declining their $3.5 million team option for Livingston for next season while only being on the hook for less than $2 million dollars for Brockman ($1 million) and Leuer ($800,000) for next season.

The Bucks were clearly targeting a center in the 2012 NBA Draft.  Well now they have one, unfortunately Dalembert is 31-years-old instead of 21-years-old.

For a quick background on Dalembert, he was drafted 26th overall by the Philadelphia 76ers in the 2001 NBA Draft.  Dalembert is 6'11" and usually averages a "Double High-Single" as I like to call it.  A Double High-Single means a player usually averages more than five but less than 10 points and 10 rebounds a game.  That player rarely puts up huge games (i.e. 20 points and 14 rebounds) but also rarely puts up a stink bomb (i.e. 4 points and 3 rebounds).  Finally Dalembert finished 10th in the league last year with 1.7 blocks a game and has averaged 1.9 blocks for his career.

I don't mind the trade although I am a sucker for feel good stories like Livingston so I am sad to see him go despite his production diminishing as last season dragged on.  Plus it looks like I can technically claim victory on dangling Brockman for a second round pick...thanks for reading my advice Mr. Hammond.

I guarantee the sticking point of the trade was including Leuer.  I am on record right before as well as right after the 2011 NBA Draft saying that Leuer will be a solid rotation guy in the NBA.  With one year under his belt, Leuer looks on his way to fulfilling those expectations.

Before the trade the Rockets held the 14th, 16th, and 18th picks in the first round of the 2012 NBA Draft.  My guess is that the Rockets offered the 18th pick instead of the 14th pick in return unless Leuer was included.  Although the 2012 NBA Draft is a deep draft, I am guessing (like my speculation on top of speculation when I have no inside information) that the Bucks did not want to move out of the lottery so they relented and included Leuer in order to get the 14th pick instead of the 18th pick in return.

One final point.  I never like being on the other side of a trade with Houston Rocket's general manager Daryl Morey aka Dork Elvis as Bill Simmons calls him.  Although this trade seems like a good one on paper, Morey is always looking two steps ahead while Hammond always feels like he is dealing with the present catastrophe instead of looking two steps ahead.

Check back later tonight for my post on the players that the Bucks should target with the 14th pick instead of the 12th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft.


Related Posts:
- Wednesday What (Might) Happen - 2012 NBA Draft Second Round Preview for the Bucks
- Wednesday What (Should) Happen - Advice for John Hammond

2012 Milwaukee Brewers - Most Overpaid and Most Underpaid

Welcome to you second annual overpaid/underpaid post. Milwaukee Brewers majority owner Mark Attanasio has consistently increased payroll since buying the team in 2005. In less than 10 years Attanasio has increased payroll from roughly $27 million in 2004 to over $100 million for the first time in franchise history in 2012. Keep in mind the Brewers will eclipse $100 million in payroll as Prince Fielder and his $15.5 million salary from 2011 comes off the books since Fielder signed a monster contract with the Detroit Tigers. As you can imagine, a fair amount of guys from 2011 made the list this season. Here is my take on the most overpaid and underpaid players on the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers opening day roster:

Overpaid:
Honorable Mention: Shaun Marcum (RHP, $7.725 million) and Cesar Izturis (SS, $875,000)

#5) Aramis Ramirez (3B, $6 million): Last year Ramirez had an uptick in his performance at the plate hitting .306 with 26 home runs and 93 RBI (flawed stat) in a contract year so 2012 has regression written all over it. It's not so much the $6 million that Ramirez will earn in 2012, its the fact that the Brewers have a more than competent option in Triple-A in Taylor Green that would only cost them $500,000 in 2012. Add in that the Brewers signed Ramirez to a back-end loaded three-year, $36 million contract and unless Ramirez gets traded he will be on this list through 2014.

#4) Corey Hart (RF, $9 million): The Brewers have a couple impressive minor league outfield prospects (Caleb Gindl and Logan Schafer) that are currently blocked at the major league level by Hart. I would much rather pay Gindl $500,000 than Hart $9 million but that doesn't sell tickets.

#3) Randy Wolf (LHP, $9.5 million): When you fail to draft quality starting pitchers you are forced to overpay for middle of the rotation starting pitchers in free agency like the Brewers did with Wolf. Thanks to some decent drafts the last few seasons the Brewers finally have a bunch of potential starting pitchers at all levels of their minor league system (Jed Bradley, Taylor Jungmann, Wily Peralta, Cody Scarpetta, and Tyler Thornburg) that project as potential major league starting pitchers. The Brewers hold a $10 million option on Wolf for 2013 with a $1.5 million buyout. The progress of some of their minor league pitchers will go a long way towards determining if the Brewers pick-up Wolf's option. Hopefully if those guys continue to develop the Brewers might not have to overpay for guys like Wolf in the future.

#2) Rickie Weeks (2B, $10 million): Injuries have derailed the two-time collegiate batting champ since he joined the Brewers. Injuries aside, Weeks is nothing more than a below average fielding 2nd baseman and an above average offensive player with speed. That previous sentence doesn't describe a guy worth $10 million. With Scooter Gennett scheduled to start at 2nd base in Double-A this year, the Brewers have a younger and cheaper option nipping at Weeks' injured riddled heels.

#1) K-Rod (RHP, $8 million): After a soft market for closers didn't get K-Rod a mega-closer-contract that his agent (Scott Boras) promised he accepted arbitration to earn $8 million in 2012, which is more money that the rest of bullpen is scheduled to earn combined (Kameron Loe owed $2.175 million, Jose Veras owed $2 million, Manny Parra owed $1.2 million, John Axford owed $525,000, Marco Estrada owed $486,000, and Tim Dillard owed $482,000). K-Rod better cash his checks and keep his mouth shut this year because last year K-Rod complained about being just a set-up guy as opposed to the closer despite the fact that closer John Axford put together arguably the best closer performance in franchise history.


Underpaid:
Honorable Mention: Chris Narveson (LHP, $500,000) and Marco Estrada (RHP, $486,000)

#5) Jonathan Lucroy (C, $500,000): The Brewers and Lucroy recently agreed to a five-year (possibly six) contract worth a minimum of $11 million and a maximum of $18 million (if the Brewers exercise their $5.25 million option for 2017). The Brewers priced in a raise if Lucroy qualifies as a "Super Two" player following 2012 because that means that Lucroy would only have two seasons at league minimum instead of three before becoming arbitration eligible for the next four seasons. In order to qualify as "Super Two" Lucroy will have to finish in the top 22% of a complicated MLB algorithm, which he projects to do just barely. If Lucroy does not qualify for Super Two status he will earn much less in 2013 ($750,000 v. $1.9 million) otherwise the rest of the base salaries are similar. Here is the breakdown of what Lucroy will earn if he does NOT qualify for "Super Two" status in 2012: $750,00 in 2013, $2 million in 2014, $3 million in 2015, and $4 million in 2016. If Lucroy does qualify for "Super Two" status in 2012 he will earn: $1.9 million in 2013, $2.3 million in 2014, $3.3 million in 2015, and $4.25 million in 2016. "Super Two" status aside, I love the contract even if Lucroy has one or two below average seasons between now and 2017 for one simple reason, veteran backup catchers make at least $1 million a year so the Brewers are getting a younger starting catcher with a much bigger upside for about the same amount for at least the next five seasons.

#4) John Axford (RHP, $525,000): The Brewers are currently talking with Axford's representatives about a long-term contract extension. Despite everything I just said about Lucroy it makes no sense to do the same thing with Axford because of how unpredictable closer performances are year-to-year besides the super human Mariano Rivera. Axford is not even salary arbitration eligible till 2013 meaning he cannot become a free agent till after the 2016 season at the earliest. The Brewers should go year-to-year with Axford. If Axford performs well for the next few years, the Brewers will pay for it. If Axford struggles, the Brewers don't have to worry about a long-term financial commitment. I guess that's a long way of saying I think its worth paying long-term for catching as opposed to saves.

#3) Zack Greinke (RHP, $13.5 million): If the Brewers did not have the reigning N.L. MVP (Ryan Braun) and their opening day starter (Yovani Gallardo) earning less than Greinke combined, I would have Greinke #1 on this list despite being the highest paid player on the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers. Greinke is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2012 season and has been without an agent all off-season as the Brewers tried to sign him long-term. In the interim the San Francisco Giants signed right handed starting pitcher Matt Cain to a six-year, $127.5 million contract. While that is great financial news for the Cain and Greinke families, it's a big blow to the Brewers. If you look at Cain's numbers (69-73 with a 3.35 ERA in 204 games) v. Greinke's numbers (76-73 with a 3.82 ERA in 238 games), Greinke still has a better resume since he pitched in the American League for a good portion of those start en route to winning the CY Young in 2009. Cain is 11 months younger that Greinke, which makes age less of a factor. Now that Greinke re-hired his old agent Casey Close that moved from Creative Artists Agency to Excel Sports Management, the Brewers better get ready to pay Greinke at least $20 million a year if they want to keep him in Milwaukee.

#2) Yovani Gallardo (RHP, $5.5 million): Only a handful of teams can truly claim to have more than one "Ace" in their starting rotation. Salary aside I would much rather have Greinke and his quirky personality than Gallardo. When you factor in that Gallardo is scheduled to earn $8 million less than Greinke in 2012 then Gallardo becomes much more valuable to me than Greinke. Even if Greinke leaves after 2012, at least the Brewers have Gallardo signed through 2014.

#1) Ryan Braun (LF, $6 million): Thanks to Braun pulling the Reverse Al Capone the Brewers will get the reigning NL MVP's services for only $6 million...enough said.

A special thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for providing all the financial data used for this post.

Check back the rest of the week and throughout the weekend for a ton of Milwaukee Brewers coverage as the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers open the defense of their 2011 N.L. Central Title against their hated rival and 2011 World Series champs the St. Louis Cardinals.


Related Posts:
- Quick Thoughts - 2012 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster
- Quick Thoughts - Braun pulls the Reverse Al Capone
- Wednesday What (Should) Happen - 2012 Milwaukee Brewers Spring Training Preview

Bucks trade Bogut & Jackson to Warriors for Ellis

Multiple national media outlets are crediting the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel with breaking the news that the Milwaukee Bucks traded Andrew Bogut (C) and Stephen Jackson (SG/SF) to the Golden State Warriors for Monte Ellis (SG), Ekpe Udoh (PF), and Kwame Brown (C).

For the last three years I gave Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond my advice about how to approach the NBA Trade Deadline: 2010, 2011, and 2012.

Monte Ellis was actually a guy that I targeted for the Bucks in 2010 when I suggested that the Bucks trade the expiring contracts of Joe Alexander (SF), Kurt Thomas (PF), and Luke Ridnour (PG) to the Warriors for Monta Ellis (SG) and Anthony Randolph (PF). Obviously I suggested that deal in 2010 to give the Warriors salary cap relief.

Last week I dedicated an entire blog post to seeing how the Milwaukee Bucks could dump Stephen Jackson. One of the trades I proposed was for the the Bucks to trade Jackson and Bogut to the Detroit Pistons for Ben Gordon (SG), Charlie Villanueva (SF), and Greg Monroe (C).

Long term I would much rather have Monroe than Ellis. It is a tougher call whether I would rather have Gordon, Monroe, and Villanueva or Brown, Ellis, and Udoh. Unfortunately I would probably rather have Monroe et al. than Ellis et al. but since the Bucks got Ellis et al. let's look at that deal.

The financial commitments now facing the Warriors:
- Bogut makes $12.1 million this year, $13.2 million in 2012-13, and $14.2 million in 2013-14
- Jackson makes $9.3 million this year and $10.1 million in 2012-13

The financial commitments now facing the Bucks:
- Ellis makes $11 million this year, $11 million in 2012-13, and holds a $11 million player option in 2013-14
- Udoh makes $3.3 million this year, $3.5 million in 2012-13, $4.5 million team option in 2013-14, and $6 million qualifying offer in 2014-15
- Brown makes $7 million this year

The Bucks gained a ton of financial flexibility since Ellis can opt-out after the 2012-13 season and the Bucks can decline their team option on Udoh for the 2013-14 season. Add in that there is a rumored 15% trade kicker in Bogut's contract and this trade starts to look like a financial train wreck for the Warriors. The Bucks clearly got the better financial end of this deal.

Finances aside, this trade is going to be judged by whether Bogut or Ellis has a more success NBA career. Both players were drafted in the 2005 NBA Draft. Bogut was the 1st pick in the draft while Ellis was the 40th pick in the draft.

I will still never forget the night the Bucks won the right to draft Bogut. The ping-pong balls fell the right way and the Bucks had to choose between Bogut and Marvin Williams.

Many will remember that Deron Williams went 3rd to the Utah Jazz and Chris Paul went 4th to the L.A. Clippers. The Atlanta Hawks had the 2nd pick in the 2005 NBA Draft and were clearly going to draft Bogut or Marvin Williams depending on what the Bucks did with the first pick.

Obviously the Bucks and Hawks are kicking themselves for passing on Deron Williams and Chris Paul with the Hawks looking much more foolish than the Bucks. At least the Bucks thought they were drafting a franchise center, a rare commodity in the NBA while there are tons of players in the NBA with the same game as Marvin Williams. Ironically of the top four picks in the 2005 NBA Draft the worst of the four players is Marvin Williams yet he is the only player left on the team that drafted him.

It's hard to compare shooting guards and centers but over seven injury riddled seasons Bogut averaged 12.7 points and 9.3 rebounds. Over seven similarly injury riddled seasons Ellis averaged 19.6 points and 4.4 assists.

When Bogut suffered a horrific injury at the end of the 2009-10 regular season there some talk that Bogut would never be the same player. Bogut slowly returned to form last season and looked poised for a big year until he suffered another potential season ending injury. When you isolate each injury that Bogut suffered they seem like freak accidents but at some point when they keep happening to the same person on the basketball court, that player is injury prone. Ellis has battled his own injury problems but the Bucks are gambling that Ellis will be healthier over the next few season than Bogut, which seems like a fairly safe bet at this point.

It will be interesting to see how the always defensive minded Milwaukee Bucks head coach Scott Skiles deals with an offense first and defense last shooting guard like Monta Ellis. My bet is that Skiles either gets Ellis to play at least a little bit of defense or both Ellis and Skiles are working for someone other than the Bucks in a few years.

The Bucks also also got an actual center in the trade, Kwame Brown. Whether the Bucks can get anything out of Brown remains to be seen but they will need some production out of Brown because besides him, the Bucks have a ton of tweener big men (Jon Brockman, Drew Gooden, Tobias Harris, Jon Leuer, Ersan Ilyasova, Larry Sanders, and Ekpe Udoh) on the roster.

Udoh is the other player the Bucks acquired from the Warriors. While Ellis is a shoot first, defend second player. Udoh looks like exact opposite type of player, which make him a very valuable asset.

Barring another trade or injury with the combo of Brandon Jennings at point guard and Monta Ellis at shooting guard through at least the 2012-13 season, the Bucks might have the most exciting back court in Eastern Conference.

Up until this trade I was pulling for the Bucks to tank the season to get a high draft pick. ESPN.com writer John Hollinger claims this trade gives the Bucks +4 wins and the Warriors -9 wins. I want to see how the new squad plays for a few games before passing judgment.

The Milwaukee Bucks were able to grab the headline right as NFL Free Agency opened and the NFL announced that Green Bay Packers defensive end Michael Neal will be suspended for the use of performance enhancing drugs.

Bucks fans will most likely get to see their new pieces in action this Friday when the Bucks visit the Golden State Warriors.

Milwaukee Brewers Speak Out

Sorry that there has been a lack of Milwaukee Brewers posts despite the fact that the team is making one of only a handful of playoff runs in my lifetime. In even worse news, this post is going to quickly look at the comments two current Brewers made at the worst possible time since the team has been sputtering lately.

Former closer turned set-up man K-Rod voiced his displeasure with being the primary set-up guy as a opposed to being the closer. When the Brewers acquired K-Rod from the New York Mets a few months ago, I thought there would be issues. Fortunately there have not been any public issues until K-Rod recently voiced his displeasure with not being given a chance to close games.

Current closer John Axford has converted a club record 39 consecutive saves so I am not sure why K-Rod thinks he should be the closer. Fortunately for K-Rod his comments are merely a footnote to Prince Fielder's recent comments.

In an interview set to air on Sunday with Brewers announcer Brian Anderson, Fielder talks about how this is probably his last season playing for the Milwaukee Brewers. Why did Fielder have to state the obvious about 2012 while fans are just trying to enjoy 2011? For what has felt like 15 years now, we've known that there is a 1% chance that Fielder plays for the Brewers in 2012 since he is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent following the 2011 season.

Normally I applaud athletes for being candid but not at the expense of the team, especially when their team is in the middle of a playoff run. The comments by K-Rod and Fielder hopefully will not have a lasting impact on their playoff run but it sure didn't help.

One final note, K-Rod and Fielder are both represented by "super" agent Scott Boras. That doesn't necessarily mean that the comments were timed to drop at the same time but I would not put it past Boras. We know there is no way Fielder will be allowed to take a hometown discount thanks to Boras. Re-read that sentence, Boras not Fielder holds the cards to his future.

K-Rod and Fielder should focus on making headlines with positive play on the field not negative comments during interviews if they want to see the Brewers make a legitimate playoff run this season.

Super Bowl XLV Rings Disperse Around the NFL

After the NFL Lockout was finally lifted the Green Bay Packers cut five veterans: Nick Barnett (MLB), Brandon Chillar (MLB), Justin Harrell (DL), Brady Poppinga (OLB), and Mark Tauscher (T). Besides Chillar, the rest of the guys cut never played for another NFL franchise but unfortunately father time or injuries caught up with all of them.

Chillar (recently injured), Harrell (perpetually hurt), and Tauscher (old and injured) have not signed with another team yet while the other guys signed with different NFL teams:
- Nick Barnett signed a three-year, $11.5 million contract ($1.5 million signing bonus) with the Buffalo Bills.
- Brady Poppinga signed a one-year, $685,000 veteran minimum contract with the St. Louis Rams.

All of the players cut by the Packers allowed them to trim roughly $15.4 million off their 2011 salary cap* with roughly $2 million in "dead money" hitting their salary cap in 2012 thanks NFL accounting rules. For how sad it is to see all of the veterans go, the youth movement continues in Green Bay so the cuts are understandable.

The Green Bay Packers had 11 unrestricted free agents: Atari Bigby (S), Daryn Colledge (G), Mason Crosby (K), Korey Hall (FB), Brandon Jackson (RB), Cullen Jenkins (DE), James Jones (WR), John Kuhn (FB), Anthony Smith (S), Jason Spitz (G), and Matt Wilhelm (LB) once the lockout was lifted. Predictably Green Bay Packer general manager Ted Thompson let most of those guys leave via free agency without even offering them a legitimate contract offer:
- Daryn Colledge signed a five-year, $27.5 million contract ($7.5 million signing bonus) with the Arizona Cardinals.
- Korey Hall signed a two-year, $2.1 million ($400,000 signing bonus) contract with the New Orleans Saints.
- Brandon Jackson signed a two-year, $4.5 million ($1 million signing bonus) contract with the Cleveland Browns.
- Cullen Jenkins signed a five-year, $25 million contract with the Philadelphia Eagles.
- Jason Spitz signed a three-year, $5.25 million contract ($750,000 signing bonus) with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
- Anthony Smith signed a contract for an undisclosed amount with the Tennessee Titans.

Of the guys that the Packer decided not to resign, Jenkins is the only guy that I would have tried to resign if I was general manager Ted Thompson. The Eagles will only pay Jenkins $4 million in 2011 and have an out where they can terminate the contract with very small cap ramifications if Jenkins struggles in 2011 according to various reports. At that price, especially with the question marks along the defensive line for the Packers, Jenkins should have been resigned. Besides Jenkins the Packers have younger, better, and cheaper options than the guys they let leave via free agency.

With eight of the 11 unrestricted free agents signing elsewhere or remaining free agents** that means that the Packers only resigned three of their 11 unrestricted free agents:
- Mason Crosby signed a five-year, $14.75 million contract with a $3 million signing bonus.
- James Jones signed a three-year, $9.5 million contract with a $1.5 million signing bonus.
- John Kuhn signed a three-year, $7.5 million contract with a $750,000 signing bonus.

Crosby signed one of the richest contracts ever given to an NFL kicker, which feels a little expensive based on Crosby being merely an average NFL kicker. Jones resigning with the Packers shows that general managers around the league are either think that Jones was a product of playing in one of the most potent offenses in the NFL or they think Jones will continue to drop passes in important situations. Either way the Packers were able to resign Jones at a reasonable price to give the 2011 Green Bay Packers the most prolific wide receiving core in the NFL heading into the 2011 NFL preseason. The Kuhn deal makes the most sense of three contracts because it gives the Packers hybrid running back, fullback, and special teams player that fits perfectly on the team.

There were some other minor contracts signed in the last week*** that barely deserve a mention. The free agency period for the Green Bay Packers proceeded exactly how most people thought it would, older guys were cut or let go via free agency while younger guys (besides Crosby) were retained at a reasonable price. Check back for more Green Bay Packers coverage as the preseason kicks into high gear.


Footnote:
* = Barnett ($5 million), Tauscher ($4.5 million), Poppinga ($2.3 million), Chillar ($2.3 million), and Harrell ($1.3 million).

** = Atari Bigby and Matt Wilhelm remain unsigned.

*** = Restricted free agents Brett Swain (WR) and Spencer Havner (TE/LB) resigned with the Packers but look like prime candidates to get cut at the end of training camp while former Packer Donald Lee (TE) signed a one-year, $850,000 contract ($40,000 signing bonus) with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Review of 2011 MLB Trade Deadline for the Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin made four trades before the 2011 MLB Trade Deadline. None of the deals were as ambitious as the C.C. Sabathia trade the Brewers made in 2008* or the Zack Greinke trade before this season**. Despite not making a big splash, the four moves Melvin made before the trade deadline set the Brewers up with the right bench guys to make a strong playoff run:

#1) Acquired K-Rod (P) from the New York Mets for two players to be named: Fortunately it looks like K-Rod is going to be the primary set-up guy for closer John Axford for the rest of the year. There is not much more I can say about this trade that I didn't say a few weeks ago.

#2) Traded Wil Nieves (C) to the Atlanta Braves for cash: Apparently the cash was a grand total of $1. Nieves is an old, washed up catcher so I am not even sure I can complain about the deal.

#3) Acquired Felipe Lopez (INF) from the Tampa Bay Rays for cash: On paper Lopez gives the Brewers a ton of options around the infield, which they desperately need since there is no timetable for when Rickie Weeks will return. Apparently someone in management checked with the team leaders, presumably Braun and Fielder, to make sure they wanted the sometimes volatile Lopez in the locker room. The team leaders signed off so who am I to question the deal.

#4) Acquired Jerry Hairston Jr. (INF/OF) from the Washington Nationals for Erik Komatsu (OF): Some might questions this move with Komatsu being named the Brewers' Minor League Player of the Year in 2010. Let's keep Komatsu's value in perspective, he is a prospect that projects as a corner outfielder at best. The Brewers are all set with Braun and Hart as corner outfielders for the next few years so Komatsu is expendable. Plus Hairston is a guy that can play six positions on the field, which is a rare commodity for a team looking to make a playoff run.

Check back throughout the stretch run as the Brewers look to make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2008.


Footnote:
* = Sabathia went 11-2 with a 1.62 ERA the rest of the season to almost single-handily pitch the Brewers into the playoffs for the first time in 26 years.

** = Gave the Milwaukee Brewers their first co-Aces (Gallardo and Greinke) in franchise history.

The K-Rod Trade

It is obvious that K-Rod has put together quite impressive numbers throughout his career*. If K-Rod was acquired to be the primary set-up guy to closer John Axford, I am 100% behind the trade. With Kameron Loe sputtering as the primary set-up guy to closer John Axford, the Brewers needed a better 8th inning option. Unfortunately based on Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin's comments, it looks like the Brewers are going to have dual-closers following the K-Rod trade.

If the Brewers do in fact go with dual-closers I don't like the K-Rod deal for two non-statistical reasons. First, it messes up the pecking order in the bullpen. Second, even though it is not my money, the Brewers took on a big chunk of payroll in the K-Rod trade (reportedly $5 million) so they will probably not be able to take on more money via trade if they want to upgrade the left side of their infield for a playoff run. Let's delve into each of my issues with a deal in more detail:

First, the "closer by committee" strategy never seems to work. For better or worse baseball players are like little children, they need to be fed three time a day and need to live a very structured life. That is even more pronounced in the bullpen because the entire staff is built from the end of the game forward. Until the K-Rod trade everyone in the bullpen knew that John Axford was the closer but now the Brewers have two guys that might end the game. The bullpen seemed like a tight group from an outsiders perspective despite the fact that they struggled through injuries (Hawkins and Saito) and ineffectiveness (Braddock and Loe).

K-Rod's presence as the dual-closer will stunt the growth of the deserving closer John Axford. One way to remedy this situation is to use K-Rod as the primary set-up man and the second option at closer. Most managers bring in their closer in the top of the 9th if the game is tied when they are at home. In those specific spots I would pitch K-Rod as well as all the other standard 8th inning set-up spots. Besides those specific situations just mentioned, I would allow John Axford to stay in the traditional closer role since he has thrived** in that spot since assuming that role once Trevor Hoffman lost his mojo in 2010. Sometimes closers only work in short spurts (Danny Kolb, Solomon Torres, and Derrick Turnbow) but Axford has been very good in his sophomore campaign as closer in 2011*** so I am completely opposed to going closer by committee.

Second, the Brewers will not be able to add any more money to their payroll after adding K-Rod. That means the Brewers are stuck with Yuniesky Betancourt and Casey McGehee making up the left side of the infield for the stretch run. The Brewers only have spot starters on the bench in the big leagues (Craig Counsell and Josh Wilson) and no real viable options in the minors (Erick Almonte, Mat Gamel, Andy Gonzalez, Taylor Green, and Edwin Maysonet). That means the Brewers would have to look outside the organization to improve at shortstop or third base. Brewers owner Mark Attanasio has added money in the past (i.e. C.C. Sabathia) and it looks like K-Rod is the big moved as opposed to adding the more coveted New York Met...shortstop Jose Reyes.

Quick side note. I saw Gallardo and Greinke pitch in person a few weeks back at Wrigley Field. It just so happened that general manager Doug Melvin and assistant general manager Gord Ash sat in a box above my seats. Following Greinke's start (a loss where Greinke looked absolutely lost on the mound), Melvin (left) and Ash (right) were leaving Wrigley Field as you can see in the picture when a Brewer fan behind me yelled "come on Doug (Melvin) trade for Jose Reyes (shortstop for the New York Mets)". Melvin did a double-take, which actually got me excited. There is a .001% chance that the Brewers go after Reyes now, especially following the Greinke, Marcum, and K-Rod trades. Trading for Reyes at this point would leave me as the top prospect in the Brewers' farm system.

All of the above analysis did not even take into account that K-Rod was involved in a physical altercation in the locker room last year or the fact that he recently hired Scott Boras as his agent. Don't get me wrong, K-Rod deserves to be a closer somewhere in baseball based on his performance in 2011**** just not Milwaukee. I understand teams want to stock pile quality arms but I don't get why Melvin would add an established closer with issues (K-Rod) when you have a young closer with no issues (Axford) to work as dual-closers. Even if the Brewers don't have to give the Mets very good prospects for K-Rod, the trade still doesn't seem worth it unless K-Rod is the set-up man who gets an occasional spot save opportunity when Axford is overworked.


Footnotes:
* = 32-27 record, 773 strikeouts in 619 2/3 innings (good for 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings), 2.54 ERA and 291 career saves (129 more than Mariano Rivera at the same age) in 573 relief appearances.

** = Converted roughly 90% of his save opportunities (47 of 52).

*** = In 42 appearances Axford has a 2-2 record, 23 saves and a 2.83 ERA thanks to allowing only 17 walks and 39 hits while striking out 53 batters over 41 1/3 innings.

**** = Converted 23 of 26 save opportunities, 3.16 ERA, and 1.41 WHIP.

2011 NBA Draft Day Trade for Milwaukee Bucks

Although I am going to post my traditional Sunday Funday post where I give my thoughts on the Milwaukee Bucks' 2011 NBA Draft, I had to do a special Wednesday What Happened post to dissect the big draft day trade between the Milwaukee Bucks, Charlotte Bobcats, and Sacramento Kings.

After running a fiscally tight ship for his first few years as general manager of the Milwaukee Bucks, John Hammond painted himself in a corner last summer when he traded for Corey Maggette, signed John Salmons to a ludicrous contract extension, and signed Drew Gooden to the mid-level exception. After seeing those pieces not work well together last year, Hammond decided to make a big trade. Here is the breakdown of the deal:

Milwaukee Bucks* get:
- Stephen Jackson (SG/SF)
- Beno Udrih (PG/SG)
- Shaun Livingston (PG)
- 19th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft: Tobias Harris (SF/PF)

Charlotte Bobcats** get:
- Corey Maggette (SF)
- 7th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft: Bismark Biyambo (PF)

"Sacramento"*** Kings get:
- John Salmons (SG)
- 10th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft: Jimmer Freddette (PG/SG)

At first blush this looks like a salary dump by the Milwaukee Bucks. According to HoopsHype the Bucks shipped off $45,346,207**** in long-term money committed to Maggette and Salmons while they took on $37,862,500***** in long-term money committed to Livingston, Udrih, and Jackson. At the very least Herb Kohl saved $7,483,707 million in the trade by not giving up very much in the process.

The pieces that the Bucks added fit their team much better than the ones they gave up in the trade. Stephen Jackson has proven to be a temperamental guy in the past (one of the main guys involved in The Malice at the Palace) but he is a flat out scorer that the Bucks desperately need. Udrih is a similar player to Luke Ridnour, a key contributor to the 2009-10 Milwaukee Bucks playoff run. Shaun Livingston is one of the greatest players that never was because injuries really derailed his once promising career. It has been a sad fall from being the 4th player drafted in the 2004 NBA Draft to here but Livingston will only be 26 years old the next time the Bucks take the court so there is still time for Livingston to resurrect his career.

Juxtapose that with the guys that the Bucks gave up in the trade. Maggette never fit the system in Milwaukee and has been a locker room cancer at every one of his NBA stops. Salmons never regained his 2009-10 form after getting hurt going into the 2010-11 season. As a result the Bucks really didn't give up a ton to get the players they got. Furthermore they free up money for the 2013-14 season when there will most likely be a hard cap in the NBA.

I see two problems with the deal. One, if John Hammond just signed Luke Ridnour to the four-year, $16 million contract****** that the Minnesota Timberwolves signed him to last off-season, the Bucks would have been just fine. The Bucks could have let Salmons leave via free agency and never traded for Corey Maggette.

Second, moving down from the 10th pick to the 19th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft the Bucks gave up a chance to get a bunch of guys they had an interest in drafting. I will leave my thoughts on the decision to take Tobias Harris instead of Kenneth Faried for my Sunday Funday post about the 2011 NBA Draft for the Milwaukee Bucks but needless to say this trade would get more support from me if the Bucks made a better pick at 19.

Still the Bucks look like the winner in the trade because they added better pieces. The Bobcats come a close second in the trade because moving from 19th to 7th in the 2011 NBA Draft allowed them to draft my draft crush Bismark Biyambo...the next coming of Serge Ibaka. Unfortunately they had to give up Jackson for Maggette to move up. For the sake of Biyambo please put Maggette's locker as far away from his as possible MJ. Finally the Kings are in huge financial trouble yet they took on long-term money in the trade while moving down in the draft. Normally that would not be a big deal because to move from the 7th pick to the 10th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft because it is considered one of the weakest drafts in years but somehow Kentucky point guard Brandon Knight slipped to 8th in the draft. As a result the Kings lost out on their chance to add Knight so they were forced to deprive the Utah Jazz of The Jimmer.

Long story short, after watching the aforementioned pieces play together last season Hammond decided to shuffle the deck again in hopes of limiting the damage, albeit damage of his own doing. Hammond better hope that the guys that went from 10th to 18th******* in the 2011 NBA Draft never turn into superstars because that will be the achilles heel of the trade if Tobias Harris turns out to be a flop.

Footnotes:
* = Traded away Corey Maggette, John Salmons, and the 10th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft

** = Traded away Stephen Jackson, Livingston, and the 19th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft

*** = You notice I put Sacramento in quotes because their bankrupt owners tried to move out of Sacramento but couldn't pull it off...good guys. Anyhow they traded away Beno Udrih and the 7th overall pick in the draft.

**** = Corey Maggette is owed $21,186,207 ($10,262,069 in 2011-12 and $10,924,138 in 2012-13) and John Salmons is owed $24,160,000 ($8,500,000 in 2011-12, $8,080,000 in 2012-13, $7,580,000 in 2013-14, and $7,000,000 team option in 2014-15 that would push the value of the contract to $31,160,000 but I didn't include that because there is a 1% chance that the Kings will pick up that team option for the 2014-15 season).

***** = Shaun Livingston is owed $3,500,000 in 2011-12 with a team option for $3,500,000 for 2012-13; Beno Udrih is owed $15,042,500 ($7,232,500 in 2011-12 and $7,810,000 player option for 2012-13), Stephen Jackson is owed $19,320,000 ($9,260,000 for 2011-12 and $10,060,000 for 2012-13).

****** = $4,000,000 for 2010-11, $3,680,000 for 2011-12, $4,000,000 for 2012-13, and $4,320,000 for 2013-14.

******* = Jimmer Fredette (PG/SG), Klay Thompson (SG/SF), Alec Burks (SG), Markieff Morris (PF), Marcus Morris (PF), Kawhi Leonard (SF), Nikola Vučević (PF), Iman Shumpert (PG/SG), and Chris Singleton (PF).

Buzz Williams Contract Extension

Buzz Williams finally got a chance to be a head coach at the University of New Orleans for the 2006-07 season after working as an assistant coach for more than 15 years*. In what can only be characterized as a lackluster campaign, Williams compiled a 14–17 record including a 7–9 record in the lowly Sun Belt Conference in his first season as head coach of the University of New Orleans for the 2006-07 season. Instead of sticking around for a second season as the head coach of the University of New Orleans, Williams left to be an assistant for the Marquette Warriors under head coach Tom Crean.

Most observers questioned why Williams would leave a head coaching position for an assistant coaching position at the time although a fair argument could be made that being an assistant coach at Marquette is a better job than being a head coach at the University of New Orleans. That debate was not necessary less than a year later because following the 2007-08 season, despite the Hoosiers men's basketball program being hampered by NCAA sanctions thanks to the NCAA violating text messaging prowess of current Milwaukee Bucks assistant Kelvin Sampson, Tom Crean packed up his sun tanning beds and moved them south to coach the Indiana Hoosiers. I have said it a millions times already so for the 1,000,001th time: Tom Crean is a fool for leaving Marquette for Indiana.

Instead of staying at a stable program (Marquette) where Crean could have milked his 2003 NCAA Final Four appearance (really more of a testament to Dwayne Wade, Travis Diener, Steve Novak, and Robert Jackson than Crean though in my book) for another decade, Crean left for a formerly famous program (Indiana) that has less scholarships available thanks to the aforementioned NCAA sanctions. Crean looks to have one of the best recruiting classes heading into the 2011-12 season but we all know that doesn't always translate into wins. Let me take it one step further. If I was a betting man, I would say Crean not only has a shorter tenure at Indiana than Williams but Crean will earn less money from Indiana than Williams will earn from Marquette.

With Crean tanning in Indiana, Marquette named Buzz Williams their 16th head coach**. Williams has put together quite an impressive resume since taking over as head coach of the Warriors for the 2008-09 season. Williams and the Warriors made three straight NCAA Tournament appearances: got to the second round in 2009***, lost in the first round in 2010****, and made the Sweet Sixteen in 2011****. All told Williams is 69-37 overall, 32-22 in the Big East, and 3-3 in the NCAA Tournament as head coach of the Marquette Warriors.

Williams already earned millions of dollars in just the three years in charge of the Warriors. Based on tax returns filed by Marquette University (through June 30, 2011), Williams earned $2,800,347 in 2009 thanks in large-part to a one-time $1,987,203 bonus. Furthermore Team Buzz Williams, a limited partnership that Williams runs, paid Williams an additional $397,500 in 2009. Williams most likely runs his speaking engagements and basketball camps through Team Buzz Williams. All told, Williams made $3,197,847 in 2009 alone. As a point of comparison, Marquette woman's basketball coach Terri Mitchell earned $417,985 in 2009.

There are differing numbers as to what Williams earned in 2010. According to USA Today, Williams only earned $876,282 in 2010 while other sources claim that Williams earned $1.6 million in 2010 as a part of a six-year rollover contract.

Recently Arkansas and Oklahoma showed interest in hiring Williams. Much like Crean leaving Marquette for Indiana, it would have made no sense for Williams to leave for either of those programs, especially since Oklahoma is still in hot water thank to Kalvin Sampson's texting prowess there before he left to commit similar violations at Indiana. Luckily for Williams, interest form Arkansas and Oklahoma allowed him to negotiate another raise. Marquette added an undisclosed number of years (presumably more than six years though) at roughly $2 million a year on a rolling basis. It is unclear what buyout was added to the new deal (presumably more than $3 million).

Although I have not read the actual contract, if it were my money, I would not have offered Williams the extension. Ask Notre Dame how they feel about the gargantuan extension they gave Charlie Weis. The only thing that makes sense about the contract is that it contains rolling salaries with a buyout provision. As long as the buyout is not too large, at least Marquette is able to move on for less than the full value of the contract if Williams struggles over the next few seasons.

For all those naysayers that said Williams should have stayed at the University of New Orleans, Williams is laughing all the way to the bank. The 38-year old Buzz Williams is already a very rich man and is on the cusp of being even richer if he fulfills the rest of his contract. Plus college coaches always need at least six years remaining on their contract to appease recruits so Williams will be offered raises and extensions every few years to make sure he is locked up for at least six years into the future until he leaves Marquette.

College basketball and football coaching salaries are skyrocketing much like CEO compensation. Buzz Williams is going to make somewhere in the neighborhood of $2.5 million for the 2011-12 season to coach a college basketball team. Obviously that is what the market will bear so good for Buzz but shame on college athletic departments in general. Once one coach gets a nice bump in compensation, every other school has to fall in line. I am not advocating that coaches shouldn't get paid well but at some point the raises and extensions spin out of control. At this point it seems like the extension given to Buzz Williams is just another example of how these raises and extensions have done exactly that, spun out of control.

Footnotes:
* = Navarro College (1990–92), Oklahoma City University (1992-94), University of Texas at Arlington (1994-98), Texas A&M University–Kingsville (1998-99), Northwestern State University (1999–00), Colorado State University (2000–04), and Texas A&M University (2004–06).

** = Ralph Risch (1916–17), John J. Ryan (1918–20), Frank Murray (1920–29), Cord Lipe (1929–30), Bill Chandler (1930–51), Tex Winter (1951–53), Jack Nagle (1953–58), Eddie Hickey (1958–64), Al McGuire (1964–77), Hank Raymonds (1977–83), Rick Majerus (1983–86), Bob Dukiet (1986–89), Kevin O'Neill (1989–94), Mike Deane (1994–99), and Tom Crean (1999–08).

*** = 6th seeded Marquette beat 11th seeded Utah State 58-57 and 6th seeded Marquette lost to 3rd seeded Missouri 83-79

**** = 6th seeded Marquette lost to 11th seeded Washington 80-78

***** = 11th seeded Marquette beat 6th seeded Xavier 66-55, 11th seeded Marquette beat 3rd seeded Syracuse 66-62, and 11th seeded Marquette lost to 2nd seeded University of North Carolina 81-63.

Ranking Injured Reserve List for 2010 Green Bay Packers

The 2010 Green Bay Packers suffered 16 season ending injuries on their way to Super Bowl XLV. With so many injuries, I thought it would be interesting to rank the 16 players on injured reserve as a little complimentary Super Bowl XLV coverage. Luckily the Packers suffered most of those injuries early in the season so their back-ups were able to get almost a full season under their belt. There are various accounts of how many games the 16 players on injured reserve missed but the prevailing numbers are that players missed 180 regular season games due to injury with 12 starters missing 86 regular season games. Here are my rankings for the players currently on injured reserve:

#16 - Justin Harrell (DE): Jamal Reynolds must love how much of a bust Harrell has become since it let's Reynolds off the hook. With Brian Brohm no longer on the roster, Harrell stands as general manager Ted Thompson's worst draft pick currently still associated with the Packers.

#15 - Josh Bell (CB): Gave up the touchdown to Mike Wallace as time expired to give the Steelers a 37-36 victory over the Packers the last time the two teams met in Pittsburgh in 2009. Bell didn't even make the opening day 53-man roster this year but the Packers saw enough in Bell to put him on injured reserve as opposed to reaching an injury settlement.

#14 - Anthony Levine (S): There are too many able bodied safeties (Bigby, Burnett, Bush, Collins, Martin, Peprah, and Smith) on the roster for Levine to have a realistic shot of wearing the Green and Gold on Sundays anytime soon.

#13 - Spencer Havner (TE): According to various sources, Havner thought he was the best tight end on the roster in training camp. Havner was obviously wrong because the Packer kept four other tight ends (Crabtree, Finley, Lee, and Quarless) ahead of him. If healthy, Havner has a chance to make the roster in 2011 because he is good on special teams and can fill in at linebacker in a pinch.

#12 - Anthony Smith (S): It still perplexes me why Smith was cut in favor of Aaron Rouse at the end of the 2009 training camp. The only way Smith returns to the Packers in 2011 is if Bigby, Martin, and Peprah are not on the roster.

#11 - Brady Poppinga (OLB): Much like safety, the Packers have a ton of young outside linebackers on the roster (Briggs, Francois, Jones, Walden, and Zombo) so Poppinga's time in Green Bay has most likely come to an end. Furthermore, Poppinga looks better suited to play outside linebacker in a 4-3 defense as opposed to a 3-4 defense. If Poppinga is healthy in 2011 he will be playing somewhere else in a 4-3 defense.

#10 - Marshall Newhouse (G/T): The Packers see Newhouse as a developmental prospect with a chance to be their left tackle of the future. With how well Chad Clifton played in 2010, the only way Newhouse sees the field in 2011 is if the Packers suffer a number of injuries along the offensive line. That means 2012 looks like the year for Newhouse to break into the starting lineup.

#9 - Derrick Martin (S): Much like Jarrett Bush, Martin is a special teams ace that is worth a roster spot for that reason alone despite being a liability on defense. Martin has a chance to make the roster in 2011 but it might come down to whether the Packers want to keep Bigby or Martin. If I were in charge, Martin would get the roster spot over Bigby.

#8 - Brandon Chillar (MLB): When the Packers signed Chillar to a four-year extension that runs through the 2013 season he looked like a perfect combo linebacker and special teams contributor with a secure roster spot. Chillar struggled at outside linebacker in training camp so he can only contribute at middle linebacker and on special teams. With the emergence of Desmond Bishop at middle linebacker, Chillar will have to show ability at outside linebacker in 2011 or possibly look for a new home in 2011.

#7 - Mark Tauscher (RT): The Packers asked Tauscher to rehab in Green Bay and help mentor rookie offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga. Tauscher complied but might have helped Bulaga too much because Bulaga owns the right tackle spot no matter how healthy Tauscher is at the start of 2011. With a hefty base salary in 2011, Tauscher might be informally asked to retire so the Packers are not forced to cut him.

#6 - Morgan Burnett (S): The emergence of Charlie Peprah at safety made up for the loss of promising rookie Morgan Burnett. In 2011 Burnett has to prove that he can stay healthy before the Packers hand him the starting safety spot next to Nick Collins.

#5 - Michael Neal (DE): Showed flashes of being a beast along the defensive line but injuries claimed most of Neal's rookie season. Nose tackle B.J. Raji struggled with injuries in his rookie season and flourished this year in his second season in the NFL. Hopefully Neal can follow a similar path and become a force along the defensive line in 2011.

#4 - Brad Jones (OLB): The emergence of Erik Walden and Frank Zombo shows that whoever lines up at the other outside linebacker spot opposite of Clay Matthews will most likely thrive. When healthy, Jones is a better option than Walden or Zombo but all three players struggled with injuries in 2010. Unless the Packers use an early draft choice on an outside linebacker in the 2011 NFL Draft, whoever is healthiest in 2011 deserves a chance to start opposite Matthews.

#3 - Nick Barnett (MLB): Suffering a season ending injury for the second time in three years has called into question how Barnett fits in long-term in Green Bay. Barnett is signed through the 2012 season with high base salaries of $6 million in 2011 and $6.5 million in 2012. According to various talent evaluators, Barnett does not have the right body type to contribute at outside linebacker. That may be true but the Packers play more exotic defensive packages than the standard 3-4 defense. As a result, Barnett deserves the chance to make the 2011 opening day roster.

#2 - Ryan Grant (RB): The Packers lost Grant for the season in Week 1 in Philadelphia. The Packers’ inability to generate a rushing game in 2010 after they lost Grant for the season shows how valuable Grant is to the Packers' rushing offense. The zone blocking scheme the Packers use favors a running back that makes one cut and hits the hole. Ironically it wasn't till the Packers re-visited Philadelphia in the playoffs that they put together another impressive game on the ground when rookie running back James Starks set a Packer rookie playoff rushing record. The running back depth chart going into 2011 should be: Ryan Grant, James Starks, 2011 draft pick, and John Kuhn. That would leave Brandon Jackson off the roster. I know Jackson has improved his blocking which makes him a good 3rd down back but Jackson showed this season that he is not a starting NFL running back.

#1 - Jermichael Finley (TE): Too tall to cover with a defensive back and too fast to cover with a linebacker, Finley is a physical freak that has a chance to be a real NFL superstar. The Packers geared their 2010 offense around Finley so when he was lost for the season it took the Packers a few weeks to get back in rhythm. It will be interesting to see how the Packers re-integrate Finley in their offensive scheme in 2011.

With how well the back-ups played in place of the aforementioned players, only a handful of the players currently on injured reserve will be on the 2011 Green Bay Packers opening day roster. Here are my current guesses for how likely it is that the 16 players above make the 2011 opening day roster:

No Chance: Bell, Harrell, Levine, and Poppinga

Slight Chance: Havner, Martin, Smith, and Tauscher

Great Chance: Barnett, Chillar, and Newhouse

Lock: Burnett, Finley, Grant, Jones, and Neal

Check back throughout the week for more Super Bowl XLV coverage.

2010 Divisional Round Playoff Review of Packers/Falcons

The Green Bay Packers killed two birds with one stone by beating the Atlanta Falcons 48-21 in Atlanta to punch their ticket to the NFC Championship Game against the Chicago Bears in Chicago. For one, the Packers avenged their Week 12 loss to the Falcons in Atlanta. More importantly, the Packers finally avenged their first home playoff loss in franchise history when the Michael Vick lead Atlanta Falcons beat the Packers 27 to 7 on Saturday, January 4, 2003. I saw the miserable playoff loss with my buddies Fernando, Gaber, and Sug at a bar in Punta Gorda, Florida. The Packers (the only holdovers are Chad Clifton, Donald Driver, and Mark Tauscher) enacted sweet revenge for us and the rest of Packers Nation eight years later. It took eight years but we can officially put that loss behind us and just remember the good times had in Punta Gorda fellas. Here are the things that stood out to me from the Green Bay Packers’ 48-21 win over the Atlanta Falcons:

Aaron Rodgers:
Against the Falcons Rodgers was 31 for 36 with 366 passing yards, 3 touchdowns (1 rushing touchdown) for a 136.8 passer rating. Rodgers really spread the ball around to his receivers: Greg Jennings (8 catches for 101 yards), Donald Driver (6 catches for 79 yards), Jordy Nelson (8 catches for 79 yards), and James Jones (4 catches for 75 yards).

Statistically speaking how well did Rodgers play against the Falcons? Football Outsiders have a statistic called “DYAR” or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement*. Basically it shows the degree of difficulty on the performance over an average player. Rodgers’ performance was the 4th best DYAR playoff performance since 1993 meaning great quarterbacks such as Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, and Ben Roethlisberger never had a game as good as Rodgers did against the Falcons. Who had the best playoff performance ever? Unfortunately it was Kurt Warner’s 385 DYAR (29 for 33, 382 yards for 5 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and 1 sack) against the Packers last year in their 51-45 overtime thriller.

In three playoff games with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the Packers’ offense has averaged 38 points a game. Furthermore, Rodgers became the 1st quarterback in NFL history to throw more than 10 touchdowns in his first 3 playoff games.


Christopher Owens:
Brian Williams beat out Christopher Owns for the nickel cornerback job for the Atlanta Falcons at the start of the season. Williams was inactive for the game so the Packers picked on Owens all day. After giving up a 102-yard kickoff return to Eric Weems, the longest play in playoff history, the Packers were down 14-7. That proved to be the last time the Packers trailed for the rest of the game because they drew two penalties on Owens that helped the Packers tie the game up at 14-14. As shown above, Rodgers spread the ball around to all of his wide receivers. Rodgers went after Owens for most the game because whoever was covered by Owens looked like Rodgers’ first read on most plays. Let’s move from the worst cornerback on the day to the best cornerback on the day.


Tramon Williams:
Cornerback Tramon Williams had two interceptions against the Falcons, both coming at the end of the first half to swing the game from competitive to a beat down. Let’s set the stage. The game was tied at 14 with two minutes left in the half when the Falcons gave up a sack to cornerback Charles Woodson that set-up a 3rd and 21 for the Falcons from the Packers’ 26-yard line. Instead of attempting a safe throw, Matt Ryan went for it all and threw an interception to Tramon Williams in the end zone. The Packers capitalized on the interception to go up 21-14.

The Falcons got the ball back with less than a minute remaining in the first half down 21-14. Thanks to consecutive pass interference penalties on Sam Shields and Tramon Williams the Falcons had the ball on the Packers’ 26-yard line. Following a sack by Claymaker, the Falcons were forced to use their last timeout of the half which gave them the ball on the Packers’ 35-yard line with 10 seconds left in the half. Despite having one of the best place kickers (Matt Bryant) in the NFL, the Falcons tried to pick up a few more yards on an out route. The smart play was to attempt a field goal to only trail 21-17 at the half. Instead, Tramon Williams stepped in front of the pass and returned it 70-yards for a touchdown to give the Packers a 28-14 lead heading into halftime.


The artist formerly known as Matty Ice:
Everyone used to like to call Matt Ryan "Matty Ice". Well he was Matty Ice against the Packers...ice cold. Ryan pushed his playoff record to 0-2 with 6 turnovers and a safety. Just to add insult to injury, Ryan lost more games in the last three weeks (2 games) in the Georgia Dome than he lost there in the previous three years (1 game). Ryan is clearly one of the best, young quarterbacks in the NFL but Rodgers catapulted ahead of Ryan in the quarterback pantheon because playoff wins are unfortunately how most quarterbacks are judged.


35 Consecutive Points Scored:
Following an NFL post season record 102-yard kickoff return by Eric Weems, the Green Bay Packers rattled off 35 unanswered points. Punter Tim Masthay's only work on the day was serving as a holder for the multitude of kicks (3 field goal attempts and 6 extra point attempts) for place kicker Mason Crosby. The Packers out-gained the Falcons 442 yards to 194 yards. Thanks in large part to Rodgers working the pocket perfectly on 3rd down, the Packers converted 8 of their 12 opportunities while the Falcons only converted 3 of their 10 opportunities.


Why the Pro Bowl is a joke:
Matt Ryan and Brent Grimes were voted into the Pro Bowl ahead of Aaron Rodgers and Tramon Williams. Don’t get me wrong, the Packers are sending an undeserved player in left tackle Chad Clifton in a “career achievement” vote but Rodgers and Williams might be two of the best three players on their team right now along with outside linebacker Clay Matthews. As a Packer fan I hope the Packer Pro Bowl representatives (Clifton, Collins, Jennings, Matthews, and Woodson) are unable to play in the Pro Bowl because they are getting ready for the Super Bowl but this game is a microcosm of how the Pro Bowl system is flawed.

Playoffs by the numbers:
In 1990 the NFL expanded the playoffs to include 12 teams. From 1990 to 2004, no 6th seed ever defeated a 1st seed. Since then, being a 6th seed is not all that bad. Starting in 2005, the 6th seed has defeated the 1st seed five times including twice this year (Packers over Falcons and Jets over Patriots).

From 1990 through 2001 teams with a bye in the first round of the playoffs went 39-9 in their first playoff game. In 2002 the NFL changed from 6 divisions to 8 divisions. Despite the number of divisions changing, the number of teams that made the playoffs stayed at 12. Something changed though. Starting in 2003, bye teams have gone 18-14 in their first playoff games and only 12-12 since 2005. Road teams only won 30% of playoff games up till 2005, since then road teams have won 45% of the time.

Finally, the Packers became the first team in post-season history to score at least 45 points in consecutive years. Check back for NFC Championship coverage on the blog this week as the Packers prepare for only their second post-season meeting with the Bears. The Packers will be looking to enact revenge for their loss to the Bears in their first post-season meeting on December 14, 1941 at Wrigley Field.

Footnotes:
* = Gives the value of the quarterback's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here. (Source)

2010 Wildcard Round Playoff Review of Packers/Eagles

The Green Bay Packers went on the road to beat the Philadelphia Eagles for the second time this season. Here are the biggest things that stood out to me from the Packers' 21-16 playoff victory over the Eagles:

Bottled up Michael Vick:
Let’s not forget that outside linebacker Clay Matthews is a big reason why Michael Vick is quarterbacking the Philadelphia Eagles. The Packers played the Eagles in Week 1 in Philadelphia. It was supposed to be Kevin Kolb’s coming out party after the Eagles traded quarterback Donovan McNabb to their division rival the Washington Redskins. Unfortunately for Kolb, Matthews knocked him out of the game with a concussion on a clean hit. Michael Vick came in to throw for 175 yards and run for 103 yards. Vick almost lead the Eagles to a come from behind victory over the Packers. In their second meeting of the season on the same field Vick threw for 292 yards and ran for 33 yards but it was not enough to beat the Packers. Vick threw an ill-advised pass up for grabs in the end zone that was intercepted by Tramon Williams to seal a victory for the Packers.

Miscues hurt both teams:
Usually in a playoff game if either team makes a critical mistake it leads to a loss. Both the Packers and Eagles made miscues that canceled their respective errors out. The Packers defense made a nice stand on the first drive but on the ensuing punt much maligned (mostly for off the field reasons) backup cornerback Brandon Underwood touched the ball with his foot despite the fact that the rest of the Packers special teams was trying to get away from the ball.

The touch was recovered by the Eagles giving them great field position. The Eagles were unable to punch the ball into the end zone and were forced to settle for a 41-yard field goal attempt by David Akers. Very uncharacteristically, Akers missed the field goal. Most Packer fans would consider that miss a make-up for the fumble since the Eagles did not “deserve” to get the ball anyway. Akers later missed from even closer on a 34-yard attempt.

Those missed field goals were covered up by the Packers own miscues. Right before halftime Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers found wide receiver James Jones in stride for what should have been a 63-yard touchdown. Unfortunately Jones dropped the ball so the Packers only lead 14-3 as opposed to 21-3 at halftime.

Not only did the half end in a whimper for the Packers but they started the second half with another big gaffe. Rodgers was stripped by Eagles defensive lineman Darryl Tapp on the first possession of the second half. Eagle defensive lineman Juqua Parker recovered the fumble at the Packers’ 24-yard line.

As you can see, the Packers and Eagles both had some major miscues that essentially canceled each other out.

James Starks:
After rushing for only 101 yards in three regular season games, rookie running back James Starks rushed for a rookie playoff franchise record 123 yards. Greg Gabriel, the former Director of College Scouting for the Chicago Bears and current contributor to National Football Post, recently pointed out that James Starks was almost a Chicago Bear. Although Starks contributed very little in the regular season due to injury, his performance against the Eagles justified Packers general manager Ted Thompson’s decision to use a 6th round pick in the 2010 NFL Draft on the often injured Starks. Keep in mind that if Starks had a clean bill of healthy he was a potential first round pick in the making after his junior year in college.

Aaron Rodgers:
Coming into the game Rodgers had a 0-1 playoff record but Rodgers really only made two mistakes in his first playoff performance against the Arizona Cardinals. Unfortunately one of them directly lead to the Packers losing. Fast forward to this year, Rodgers completed 18 of 27 passes. Rodgers had a pretty good game against the Eagles in a win but played much better last year in the Packers' playoff loss to the Cardinals. Aaron Rodgers' two playoff starts show that quarterbacks get too much credit when they win (i.e. Eagles playoff victory) and too much blame when they lose (i.e. Cardinals playoff loss).

What should the Eagles do with Michael Vick:
With the Eagles’ 2010 campaign coming to a disappointing end, the Eagles need to decide what to do at the quarterback position. After trading away a franchise quarterback (Donovan McNabb) in the off-season, they still have two potential franchise quarterbacks on the roster. The Eagles have Kevin Kolb under contract for the 2011 season for a little more than a million dollars. Michael Vick is set to become a free agent, which means the Eagles might be forced to put the franchise tag on Michael. It is amazing to think what happened between Vick’s last playoff start, the 2005 NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia playing for the Atlanta Falcons and today. Vick spent 18 months in federal prison for participating in a dog fighting operation. Vick’s jail time cost him two NFL seasons and millions of dollars. The Eagles put their faith in Michael Vick when no other team trusted Vick, how will that trust impact their negotiations?

Packers finally win a playoff game in Philadelphia:
Third times a charm. The Vince Lombardi lead Packers lost to the Eagles in the 1960 NFL Championship, which turned out to be Lombardi’s only playoff defeat. Even better the Packers officially put to bed “4th and 26” from a playoff game in Philadelphia that took place on Sunday, January 11, 2004. The Eagles were facing a 4th and 26 from their own 25 yard line, trailing the Packers by three points with 1:12 remaining in the game. Thanks to questionable coverage by Nick Barnett and Darren Sharper, former Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb hit wide receiver Freddie Mitchell for a 28-yard gain to keep the Eagles alive. The Eagles kicked a field goal to send the game into overtime. Following an overtime interception by Favre, the Packers lost to the Eagles on a David Akers field goal.

With their playoff victory over the Eagles, the Packers now head to Atlanta to face the #1 seeded Atlanta Falcons. Check back for more Packers playoff coverage.

Week 17 of 2010 - Packers/Bears Review

The Green Bay Packers dispatched the Chicago Bears 10-3 to secure the 6th seed in the playoffs. Despite losing to the Packers, the Bears still lead the all-time series 92-83-6 (including the postseason). Here are the things that stood out to me from the Packers/Bears game from Week 17 of the 2010 regular season:

The Timeout by Lovie Smith:
With a little over a minute left in the 3rd quarter the Bears were facing a 3rd and 15 from their own 45-yard line. Bears head coach Lovie Smith called a timeout right before the ball was snapped. None of the players on the field realized and the Bears picked up the first down. Thanks to the time out the Bears did not pick up the first down on their actual attempt and were forced to punt.

Jordy Nelson:
On 3rd and 15 from their own 41-yard line the Packers ran a wide receiver screen for Jordy Nelson. The play was designed and blocked perfectly. If Nelson went inside instead of heading for the sidelines, which he should be doing anyhow since the Packers were trying to run down the clock, Nelson would have picked up the first down. Instead, Nelson got stopped a yard short and the Packers were forced to punt.

Tramon Williams punt return:
I have long been critical of the Packers using starting cornerback Tramon Williams as their primary punt returner because an injury to Williams on a punt return would be catastrophic for the Packers’ defense. I guess today is the reason why the Packers decided to stick with Williams despite the potential injury risk. After making the first guy miss, Williams gave the offense their best starting field position of the day. It was a nice return by Williams but I still contend that Sam Shields or Pat Lee have the same ability back there to make a return like Williams did on that play. All Williams had to do was make the first guy miss because the punt was perfectly blocked for may be the first time all season. Please McCarthy, put another guy back there to return punts.

Packers special teams still gave up a big return:
After tying the score 3-3 instead of going up 7-3 despite having 1st and goal from the Bears’ 1-yard line, the Packers tried a short high kick to limit the return. Despite having good intentions, the Packers gave up a big return and the Bears got the ball at midfield with 2:32 left in the 3rd quarter with the game tied 3-3. I have been very critical of special teams coach Shawn Slocum all season and this is just more evidence why Slocum looks out-coached more often than not.

Erik Walden filling in at outside linebacker:
The Packers have been in “next guy up” mode at the outside linebacker spot opposite Clay Matthews all season. The Packers already lost two outside linebackers for the season to injury (Brad Jones and Brady Poppinga) while another guy (Frank Zombo) has been out for an extended period of time. In a sign that this might be a magical season despite all the injuries that the Packers suffered the 4th guy in line to play, who was acquired during the season, put together one of the best defensive performances of the season. For the day Walden had 11 tackles and 3 sacks. Performances like that continue to earn Packers general manager Ted Thompson goodwill with the fans. Although Walden is anything but a household name even in Green Bay, he showed the promise that the Packers saw in him earlier in the season.

Bryan Bulaga looked like a rookie:
For the second week in a row the Packers faced one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. Rookie offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga had possibly his worst game of the season. Not only did Bulaga commit silly penalties but he was consistently beat. Bulaga is only a rookie so days like that are expected. The Packers need to make better in game adjustments to help Bulaga when he struggles because the competition is only going to be fiercer in the playoffs.

Cover Bears wide receiver Rashied Davis:
Bears quarterback Jay Cutler tends to lock onto receivers, which either results in careless interceptions or a big day for that receiver. Davis was the leading receiver for the Bears (7 catches for 63 yards). Granted that is not a huge day for a receiver but it seemed like Cutler locked onto Davis on every third down play and still completed most of those passes. The Packers have to recognize that better and make the proper adjustments.

Packer punter Tim Masthay’s impressive performance:
Packers special teams maven Jarrett Bush downed a punt at the Bears’ 2-yard line to force the Bears to go 98-yards in less than 5 minutes to have a chance to end the Packers’ season on a two-point conversion. That was set-up by yet another impressive punt by Masthay. Coming into the season punter was probably the weakest position on the team but as crazy as it sounds, Masthay is turning into an above average NFL punter.

Mike McCarthy finally calling a play-action pass at the goaline:
After failing to score a touchdown despite having a 1st and goal at the Bears’ 1-yard at the end of the 3rd quarter, McCarthy finally wised up and called something different than his usual fullback dive up the middle. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers found a wide-open Donald Lee for the only touchdown of the game. McCarthy would probably say running in short yardage situations set-up that pass but it has taken way too long for McCarthy to realize that passing is better than running in that situation.

Jay Cutler somehow stayed healthy:
If this game was supposed to help Cutler prepare for his first ever post-season start it can only be teaching via the negative. For the day Cutler was 21 for 39 throwing for 168 yards, 2 interceptions, and was sacked 6 times...yikes.

Lovie Smith:
In Lovie Smith’s first press conference as head coach of the Chicago Bears he said that his #1 goal was to beat the Green Bay Packers. I give Smith credit for playing the game as if it mattered despite the fact that the Bears were already locked into the 2nd seed. As Smith intimated, you never want to let your divisional rival get into the playoffs. Smith is now 4-3 at Lambeau Field, 5-5 against Mike McCarthy, and 8-6 overall against the Packers. Will the Packers and Bears meet again in the playoffs? Odds say no because they have only met once in the post season and that was all the way back in 1941. Either way give Smith credit, he did his best to keep the Packers out of the playoffs.

Tip of the cap to Peter King:
Peter King in his Monday Morning Quarterback column compared the best three year stretch for Bart Starr and Brett Favre (keep in mind that Favre won three MVPs in 1995-1997) with Aaron Rodgers' first three years in the league:

- Rodgers (2008-10): 27-20 record, 2 playoff appearances, 12,723 passing yards, 86 touchdowns, 31 interceptions for a 99.4 passer rating.

- Starr (1964-66): 29-10-2 record, 2 playoff appearances, 6,456 passing yards, 45 touchdowns, 16 interceptions for a 97.0 passer rating.

- Favre (1995-97): 37-11 record, 3 playoff appearances, 12,179 passing yards, 112 touchdowns, 42 interceptions for a 96.1 passer rating.

Final regular season thoughts:
- Aaron Rodgers’ 98.4 career regular season passer rating is the best in NFL history for a quarterback with a minimum 1,500 career passes.
- The 2010 Green Bay Packers went 10-6 in the regular season. Of those six loses all of them came by four points or less: two overtime losses by a field goal, two losses in the waning seconds of the 4th quarter on field goals, and two losses by four points on the road minus Aaron Rodgers in crunch time.
- The 2010 Green Bay Packers never trailed by more than 7 points throughout the entire regular season. That is the first time that has happened since the AFL/NFL merger.
- The 2010 Green Bay Packers outscored their opponents by 187 points, which lead the entire NFL.

All of the aforementioned stats make the 2010 Green Bay Packers one of the most dangerous teams heading into the playoffs despite the fact that they are a 6th seed. The Packers’ road to the Super Bowl must come via three road playoff victories but with how well they are playing anything can happen.

Week 12 of 2010 - Packers/Falcons Review

Everybody likes to talk about home field advantage but very few teams actually have a home field advantage. Most NFL teams besides the Miami Dolphins would rather play at home than on the road, but that does not always translate into a better record at home versus on the road.

That is not the case for the Atlanta Falcons; they truly have a home field advantage. Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is 18-1 at home (only loss was to Denver in 2008 when he was a rookie) and head coach Mike Smith is 18-3 at home. The aforementioned numbers were not a promising sign for the Green Bay Packers when they visited the Georgia Dome to play the Atlanta Falcons in Week 12 of the 2010 NFL season.

Before we get to the actual game, Fox likes to give a few “nuggets of information” about each team right before kickoff. Here are the Fox nuggets for the Packers:
- Head coach Mike McCarthy is 45-29 as head coach of the Packers.
- The Packers currently rank 13th in total offense
- The Packers currently rank 12th in total defense
- The Packers currently have the best plus/minus ratio in the NFL with a +106 point scoring margin

As a quick side note, I charted the first half of the game for Football Outsiders, so I will have more detailed thoughts on the first half than the second half most likely.

Onto the game. The Falcons got the ball to start the game and put together a balanced drive with a nice mix of play calls. During the Falcons' opening drive Fox flashed some very telling stats titled "How Falcons Win". Fox pointed out that the Falcons have a +10 turnover ratio, 21 drives lasting 5 minutes or longer (most in the NFL), and average only 2 offensive penalties a game (2nd best in the NFL).

The Falcons did their best to hit that penalty average on the opening drive when starting middle linebacker Desmond Bishop drew a late hit call on offensive lineman Harvey Dahl. The 15-yard penalty put Atlanta in a 3rd and 20 situation at the Green Bay 34-yard line instead of 3rd and 5 at the Green Bay 19-yard line. That was a big difference because the Falcons picked up 14 yards on the next play that would have kept the drive alive without the personal foul. Instead, the Falcons had to settle for a Matt Bryant field goal to take a 3-0 lead.

On the ensuing kickoff, Packers’ nickel cornerback and return man Sam Shields decided to return the kick despite the fact that he received it 5-yards deep in the end zone. Shields only got back to the 10-yard line...probably should have settled for the touch back Sammy.

Following the short return, the Packers went three-and-out on a couple sneaks by quarterback Aaron Rodgers and a 1-yard run by running back Brandon Jackson. Rodgers looked to have picked up the first down on a third-down scramble, but slid before the first down. I can't get mad at Rodgers for avoiding the hit in that situation, smarter to punt than to take a big shot considering Rodgers has already suffered a concussion this year.

Onto the punt, special teams maven Jarrett Bush downed the punt despite a half dozen other Packers standing around the ball. Bush stepped out of bounds, so by rule he can't be the first one to touch the ball when he comes back in bounds. As a result the Packers were penalized 5 unnecessary yards. There are much bigger issues on special teams than 5-yard penalties, but little mistakes like that continue to keep Packers’ special teams coach Shawn Slocum on the hot seat.

The Packers didn't hold the ball on offense long enough for Fox to flash the "How Packers Win" stats...not a good sign. Fox highlighted the Packers’ +8 turnover ratio, 87 points off takeaways (best in NFL), and 18 points off giveaways (tied for 2nd best in NFL).

Back to the game. After two runs by the Falcons, undrafted rookie outside linebacker Frank Zombo beat Falcons left tackle Sam Baker for an easy sack of quarterback Matt Ryan on 3rd down to force the Falcons to punt.

For the second special teams play in a row the Packers were penalized. This time it was an illegal block in the back by former Atlanta Falcons practice squad member and current Packers back-up running back Dimitri Nance. See what I mean about the little things on special teams?

The Packers started running a modified no-huddle offense on their next drive. Thanks to a 15-yard facemask penalty, the Packers moved into Falcons’ territory in short order. After a throw to wide receiver Donald Driver for a first down, Rodgers picked up another first down with his feet but was forced to use a timeout facing a 1st and 10 at the Falcons' 13-yard line.

Coming out of the timeout the Packers picked up a few more yards on the ground with Jackson. Facing a 2nd and 6 at the Falcons' 9-yard line, the Packers went with an empty backfield (4 receivers and 1 tight end) but Rodgers decided to pull it down and run again. Unfortunately Rodgers came up a yard short of the first down.

On 3rd and 1, the Packers gave the ball to Nance hoping he could punish his former employer, but Nance could not pick it up. As a result, the Packers were forced to attempt a short field goal. If the Packers had a decent running game they might have gone for it on 4th and 1, unfortunately the Packers are horrible in short yardages situations as we will reinforce soon. Packers place kicker Mason Crosby made the chip shot field goal to tie the game 3-3.

The Packers forced a three-and-out on the Falcons' next possession. Following the punt, the Packers got the ball back at their own 15-yard line. As the game came back from commercial, we saw the familiar sight of cornerback Pat Lee on the training table. Not to beat a dead horse, but when has Pat Lee been health for any prolonged stretch for the Packers?

Back to the game. The Packers ran a short slant to seldom-used 5th wide receiver Brett Swain that went for a 31-yard gain. A 15-yard personal foul got tacked on (3rd of the game for the Falcons already) at the end of the play because Swain was hit out of bounds.

Coming off the big gain, the Packers stuck with the 4 and 5 wide receiver set. That scheme allowed the Packers to dink and dunk their way down into the red zone against the Falcons suspect secondary.

While in the red zone the Packers called consecutive wide receiver hitches to wide receiver James Jones. Avid readers of the blog know I have a love/hate relationship with Jones. Based on the last two plays we are currently in the love phase. Jones' second catch netted the Packers a 1st and goal at the Falcons' 2-yard line.

On first down the Packers finally ran the U-70 package where backup offensive lineman T.J. Lang is inserted as the 6th offensive lineman. McCarthy called a play action pass on the play that resulted in a miscommunication between the fullback Quinn Johnson and Rodgers. It looked like the pass was intended for tight end Andrew Quarless but Johnson got in the way. That play is a great example of the injury problems the Packers have had to deal with in 2010. Instead of throwing a jump ball to tight end Jermichael Finley in that situation, the Packers were forced to use guys like Quarless and Johnson in the red zone.

The Packers spread out the defense with 5 wide receivers (if you count Quarless as a wide receiver in the slot) on 2nd and goal from the Falcons' 2-yard line. Rodgers tried to sneak it up the middle but was stuffed at the Falcons' 1-yard line. On 3rd and goal from the Falcons' 1-yard line Rodgers tried to sneak it again but fumbled the ball.

If the fumble was not bad enough, the ball somehow ended up into the end zone where the Falcons recovered the ball for a touchback. Oddly enough that was Rodgers' first fumble of the season, which could not have come at a worse time. Fox focused their cameras on McCarthy after the fumble. The only thing McCarthy said was "wow" in a nonchalant manner. That’s it McCarthy? Thanks for the fire and emotion, way to keep the team fired up.

I know this sounds dumb, but in a weird way the Packers have a better shot at scoring a touchdown if they are facing a first and goal from the 10-yard line as opposed to the 2-yard line. I know this seems counter intuitive but the playbook shrinks at the 1-yard line because the Packers cannot pick up a yard or two on the ground to save their life. The Packers have better personnel at wide receiver/tight end as opposed to running back/full back. Furthermore, the Packers have a ton of plays that work from longer distances and very few that work in short yardage situations. As a result, the short yardage situations have been the Achilles heel of the Packers the last few years.

Sorry for that mini jag, following the Rodgers fumble the Falcons took over at their own 20-yard line. The Falcons moved the ball well; mixing in some runs and passes to get the ball into Packers’ territory with a little less than 5 minutes remaining in the half.

After a nice sack by Packers defensive end Cullen Jenkins and an incomplete pass, the Falcons faced a 3rd and 19 from their own 48-yard line. In what looked like a dump off for only a few yards, Falcons fullback Ovie Mughelli eluded both cornerback Charles Woodson and safety Charlie Peprah to set-up a 4th and 3 at the Packers' 36-yard line.

Instead of kicking a field goal, Falcons head coach Mike Smith decided to go for it. Matt Ryan surveyed the field and found all world tight end Tony Gonzalez for an apparent first down. McCarthy had 30 seconds to review the "catch" but decided to let the play stand. Why not challenge the play McCarthy? After the game McCarthy said that he did not have enough information at the time. Really? I have more information at home on my couch watching the game on television than you do as the head coach of the team I am watching? If that is the case then the NFL needs to make some changes because I should not have more information with a beer in my hand than the head coach. Just to beat the dead horse, McCarthy should have at least thrown the challenge flag based on how big of a conversion that was at that point in the game. Even if McCarthy lost the challenge, he still would have had one for the rest of the game.

Following the boneheaded non-challenge by McCarthy, the Falcons ran for a short gain to get to the two-minute warning with the game tied 3-3. Coming out of the two-minute warning the Falcons went back to Gonzalez for a big gain to set-up a 1st and goal from the 5-yard line.

Following two short runs, the Falcons faced a 3rd and goal from the 4-yard line coming out of a timeout with 12 second remaining in the half. The Falcons obviously threw, and guess who caught the ball? Yeah, Gonzalez was wide open for an easy touchdown. That catch allowed Gonzalez to pass Jimmy Smith and move into 15th place on the NFL's career receiving list. I am not a defensive genius like Dom Capers but I think you put at least one guy on the best tight end to ever play in the NFL. Much like Bubba Franks back in the day for the Packers, whenever the Falcons are in a goal line situation there should always be at least one defender on Gonzalez. Last year Charles Woodson shadowed tight end Jason Witten in the red zone and was a big reason why the Packers beat the Cowboys. Why not do the same thing against the Flacons?

Much like I did last week in my recap of the Packers/Vikings game in the Humpty Dumpty Dome, let's play the "what if" game for second. What if the Packers scored a touchdown instead of fumbling the ball? The Packers would be up 10-3 and worst-case scenario they are tied 10-10 at halftime. Even better, let the fumble stand but what if McCarthy challenges the Gonzalez "catch" on 4th down? The Packers get the ball back tied 3-3 and most likely come away with some points. If not, the Packers bleed the clock and go into the half tied 3-3. Instead the Packers trailed 10-3 at half against possibly the best team in the NFC. Add in that Atlanta is a superb home team and you can see why the Packers cannot afford the aforementioned errors (Rodgers’ fumble and McCarthy’s failure to challenge) if they expect to win games.

The half time stats look like this according to Fox:
- Packers: 4 possessions, 28 rushing yards, 2 plays over 20-yards, and 13:07 time of possession.
- Falcons: 4 possessions, 57 rushing yards, 1 play over 20-yards, and 16:53 time of possession.

Why flash the rushing stats Fox? You know this is the match up of possibly the two best young quarterbacks in the NFL right? Again I am not a television executive but I think you want to highlight Aaron Rodgers v. Matt Ryan, not Brandon Jackson v. Michael Turner.

Shields opened the second half with a decent return. The Packers used the empty backfield to start the second half. Instead of sticking with what works, McCarthy tried to run on second and short but Jackson lost five yards. On 3rd down the Packers failed to pick up enough yards for the first down and were forced to punt. Let's second-guess the play calling a little bit while we are here. 2nd and 2 turned into 3rd and 7 because McCarthy called a run. Can we officially give up on the run or do you need more evidence?

When the Falcons got the ball back the Packers gave up a long run on first down. After picking up a first down, the Falcons failed to move the ball and were forced to punt.

Following a Tramon Williams fair catch, the Packers started their next offensive drive in the 5 wide receiver set and picked up 9 yards. On second down the Packers ran the ball for no gain. Why do you continue to call running plays that result in a loss of yards? McCarthy, when your team is good at throwing the ball and you are playing in a dome…just throw the ball. On 3rd and 1 McCarthy calls a flea-flicker that goes for a big gain to wide receiver Greg Jennings. That might be the first play call that I have agreed with in a while.

Following the big gain the Packers spread out the defense and Rodgers picked up yards with his feet. As Rodgers went to the ground he took a pretty big hit. Probably a legal hit but I don't get why a quarterbacks slide if they are going to get hit anyways. Don’t get me wrong, the NFL treats quarterbacks like porcelain dolls on every play besides when the quarterback slides. That is part of the reason why the defenseless quarterback rule still remains a mystery to me.

Following a bad pass by Rodgers, the Packers faced a 3rd and 1 at the Falcons' 29-yard line. The Packers lined up in the I-Formation with 2 tight ends and 1 wide receiver. That is a formation that looks like an obvious running formation considering the personnel, especially when you factor in the down and distance. Instead, the Packers went deep and Rodgers completed a perfect pass to wide receiver Jordy Nelson. As the last play shows, the Packers are 100 times better throwing the ball than running the ball...way to have a pair on that play call McCarthy.

The Packers capped off the drive with an empty backfield for a designed quarterback sneak. Again great play-call McCarthy. I give McCarthy credit for learning from his mistakes in the first half. Following the extra point, the game is tied at 10-10.

When the Falcons got the ball back they were penalized for a false start. The Falcons followed that play call with an inside hand off, seemed like a wasted play call ala former Packer head coach Mike Sherman to me. The Falcons picked up a few yards the next play on what looked like a blatant hold on outside linebacker Clay Matthews. The Packers followed that up by burning a timeout for having too many men on the field. Wasting a timeout there is inexcusable...two steps forward and two steps back for McCarthy.

On 3rd and 9 the Falcons picked up the first down with Jason Snelling taking a dump off and beating three Packer linebackers for a first down. Following a short run by Turner, the Falcons picked up a few yards to set-up a 3rd and 6 at their own 35-yard line. The Falcons picked up the first down on an easy pass and catch between Ryan and White.

On the next play the Falcons ran a play action tight end dump off. The Packers sold out on the run and left Gonzalez wide open. The Packers got greedy on that play because if they stayed in their lanes, Gonzalez would have been covered. On the following play the Falcons shoved the ball down the Packers throat for a big gain on the ground. Turner is hard to tackle but the Packers have to do a better job than that at tackling.

A few more positive runs netted the Falcons a 1st and goal from the Packers' 1-yard line. Despite having a formidable backfield the Packers did a nice job on 1st and 2nd down to keep the Falcons out of the end zone. On 3rd down the Falcons went to Gonzalez but he was ruled short of the end zone on the play. Smith challenged the play but the was confirmed by the replay. I am not too sure why Smith challenged the play, there was a visible bobble on the initial replay. On 4th and inches the Falcons went for it and walked into the end zone. That play shows the difference between the Packers and the Falcons. One team can pick up a yard in a pinch (Falcons) while the other (Packers) cannot pick up a yard to save their life. Sometimes it is the little things that determine whether a team is a playoff team or a Super Bowl champion, unfortunately the Packers really struggle in short yardage situations which might come back to haunt them this year.

Quick digression. For my money, Turner is exactly the type of running back the Packers need. Turner is hard to tackle and falls forward almost every time he touches the ball. When Turner was a free agent after the 2007 season the Packers were not yet completely sold on Ryan Grant. Ultimately the Packers caved amid the Favre drama and signed Grant to a lucrative four-year contract. A few months earlier the Packers could have had Michael Turner for much less than they paid Grant because the Falcons ultimately signed Turner to a six-year, $34.5 million contract with $15 million guaranteed. The Packers would rather have Turner than Grant at this point. With so many teams transitioning to a two running back scheme, it still boogles my mind that Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson didn't make a run (no pun intended) at Turner. Obviously with Grant hurt this year it seems easy to say, but a backfield of Turner and Grant for the last three years would have given the Packers possibility the best one-two punch at running back in the NFL.

On the kickoff return following the Falcons’ touchdown the Packers were flagged for 15-yard facemask personal foul. I guess I don't understand the facemask rule because kick returner Sam Shields should be able to stiff-arm a player right? That was a shaky call at best in my opinion. The only thing that makes sense is that Shields was going out of bounds so he did not need to stiff-arm the defender, but we are in fact still playing tackle football in the NFL not two-hand tag right?

Following the penalty the Packers came out in the 5 wide receiver set to pick up an easy first down followed by another nice run by Rodgers. The Packers got greedy and went 5 wide again looking to run another quarterback sneak but the Falcons sniffed it out and stopped it for no gain. In case you were wondering how bad the Packers are at running the ball, with 12 minutes left in the game Rodgers was the only Packer with positive rushing yards on the day.

The Packers ran a screen for Kuhn to net 9 yards, which set up a 3rd and 1. The Packers actually picked up a first down on the ground with Jackson to move the ball to mid-field. The Packers ran Jackson again for a few yards. Following a throw to Jennings, the Packers faced another 3rd and 1. Instead of going heavy the Packers spread out the Falcons and Rodgers took a shot down field that fell incomplete.

Instead of punting, McCarthy decided to go for it on 4th and 1 at the Falcons' 41-yard line. The Falcons blitzed, which forced Rodgers to unload it a little faster than he wanted. Rodgers missed wide receiver Donald Driver by inches, which forced a turnover on downs giving the Falcons the ball back up 17-10 with 9 minutes remaining.

I like that McCarthy took a chance on that play. I might have kept more blockers in to protect Rodgers on 4th down, but I have no problem with the Packers going for it in that situation.

The Falcons moved the ball a little bit when they got the ball back but the Packers defense stopped the Falcons, which gave the Packers offense the ball back down a touchdown with 6 minutes remaining. On first down the Packers ran the ball. That makes no sense to me, not only does it get the clock rolling but also running is not the Packers' strength.

Following the run, Rodgers hit Quarless on consecutive plays to move the Packers to their own 40-yard line. Following an 8-yard run by Jackson, Rodgers picked up the first down on a scramble to set up a 1st and 10 from the Falcons' 45-yard line. Rodgers lucked out not getting intercepted on the next play, but made up for it by hitting Jennings for another first down.

Rodgers dumped off the ball to Jackson for another nice gain. Rodgers found Jones in the back of the end zone on the next play but Jones was unable to get both his feet down in the end zone. Brian Billick talked about a rule change that the NFL recently made. Under the old rule, if a player was "forced out of bounds" without getting both feet down it could still be called a catch. I generally think the NFL is making rules more complicated, but this is one instance where the NFL simplified things. The rule now is that the player has to get both feet down in bounds or it is not a catch...smart change.

On 3rd and 1 the ball was snapped before Rodgers expected the ball. Rodgers threw the ball incomplete setting up a 4th and 1 at the Falcons' 21-yard line. It looked like the Packers didn't get off the snap in time to beat the play clock but it turned out that the Falcons jumped off sides. Either way, Rodgers took full advantage of the free play and threw a shovel pass to Jones that got the Packers a 1st and goal from the Falcons' 3-yard line. On the next play Rodgers was stripped but luckily fell on the ball to get the game to the two-minute warning.

On 2nd and goal from the Falcons' 6-yard line Rodgers threw behind Jones to avoid a blitz. On 3rd down the Packers called a naked running back screen. That play call makes absolutely no sense to me. The Packers should run more screen, but not down by the goal line with the game on the line.

On 4th and goal from the Falcons' 6-yard line rookie right tackle Bryan Bulaga got called for a false start. Former Baltimore Ravens head coach and current Fox commentator Brian Billick made the point I described above about how more room might actually be better for the Packers. On 4th and goal from the Falcons' 11-yard line Rodgers took the snap, bought time with his feet and uncorked an absolute laser to Nelson for a touchdown. Following the extra point the Packers tied the game up 17-17 with 56 seconds remaining in he game.

On the ensuing kickoff the Packers special teams basically gave the game away. Not only did they surrender a 40-yard return, but also a 15-yard facemask penalty by back-up linebacker Matt Wilhelm allowed the Falcons to take over at midfield with one timeout. Let me pile on a little more to the point I made above about special teams coach Shawn Slocum. I understand that there have been some injuries to players on special teams, but how do the Packers surrender such a big play on special teams with less than a minute left and Slocum still has a job?

On 1st down the Packers not only gave up a 9-yard catch to Roddy White, but they let White get out of bounds to stop the clock. On 2nd down the Falcons picked up the first down through the air but the clock continued to roll.

On the next play the Packers brought an all-out-blitz but still gave up an easy reception to the sidelines for a 4-yard gain. Again the Packers let the Falcons use the sideline to set-up a 3rd and 3 at the Packers' 32-yard line with 18 second remaining. The Falcons ran a roll out on 3rd down that almost resulted in a sack until Ryan threw it away.

McCarthy used his last timeout right before the field goal attempt. Why? The NFL is a copycat league so everyone does that. Okay fine but the bigger issue is that the Packers no longer had a way to stop the clock when they get the ball back. As we will see soon that doesn't matter for this game, but McCarthy should keep that in mind down the road because every second counts and those timeouts can always be used better than to “ice the kicker”.

On the actual field goal attempt following timeout, Bryant hit the ball perfectly to put the Falcons up 20-17. That left the Packers with 9 seconds to pull off a miracle. The ensuing kickoff wasted 7 seconds, leaving only 2 seconds on the clock for the Packers. On the final play of the game Jennings picked up a bunch of yards but his flip to Driver to keep the play alive went out of bounds. 68,204 were treated to a possible NFC Championship preview that saw the Falcons continue to assert their home field advantage. Ryan moved his home record to 19-1.

As a result the Packers fell 20-17. Somehow this goes as a loss for Rodgers. Yes Rodgers did fumble at the goal line, but that is because the Packers are horrible at picking up short yardage so they put their franchise quarterback in harms way on 3rd and 1. If the Packers running backs could do anything in short yardage situations, they wouldn’t need their franchise quarterback to sneak in those situations. Instead, the Packers could pound it in with an actual NFL running back. Unfortunately Brandon Jackson and Dimitri Nance are not starting caliber NFL running backs at this point.

For the day Rodgers was 26 for 34 for 344 yards and 1 touchdown for a 114.5 quarterback rating. Rodgers also picked up 51 yards on the ground and 1 touchdown (13th of his career and most in the NFL since 2008). As I have argued many times over, Rodgers’ game is suited for indoor games. Rodgers has averaged 288.7 yards passing over nine dome starts.

Ryan was 24 of 28 for 197 yards and 1 touchdown for a passer rating of 108. Ryan also notched his 12th fourth quarter comeback. I hate the Matty Ice nickname but 12 fourth quarter comebacks in less than three years is pretty impressive.

Coming into their match-up the Packers lead the all-time series 12-11. As we all know by now, the Falcons tied up the series and gave us a potential NFC Championship preview. The loss to Atlanta also marks the Packers 4th loss by three points this season…a disturbing trend that is going to have to change if the Packers want to make a legitimate playoff push. It also pushed Mike McCarthy’s record to 5-14 and Aaron Rodgers’ record to 2-12 in games decided by four points or fewer.

Green Bay Packer general manager Ted Thompson placed two more players on injured reserve, moving the season total up to lucky 13. Recently signed reserve tight end Spencer Havner was activated for the first time since rejoining the Packers. Havner aggravated his left hamstring against the Falcons, which will see him miss the rest of the 2010 season. Since Havner was placed on injured reserve, he only made one appearance for the Packers in 2010.

Back-up middle linebacker Brandon Chillar was lost for the season with a left shoulder injury. Chillar has played hurt for almost the entire season. With the emergence of Bishop the loss of Chillar is not that bad unless the Packers lose Bishop or Hawk before the end of 2010…knock on wood please because I might have just put the hex on them.

Robert Francois (LB) and Josh Gordy (CB) were signed to the active roster from the practice squad in place of Havner and Chillar. Gordy is a 5’11”, 185-pound rookie that has Sam Shields like speed. Gordy ran a 4.35 second 40-yard dash and looks like another raw cornerback that the Packers can use on special teams. Francois is making s repeat appearance on the active roster. Francois is a 6’2”, 255-pound linebacker that has been with the Packers at various points over the last two years. Much like Gordy, François looks like a special teams player at best. Terrance Smith (WR) and Curtis Young (LB/DE) replaced Francois and Gordy on the practice squad. Not much to say about Smith or Young so let’s move on.

With all of the backup moves out of the way, let’s move on to the Tramon Williams extension. Williams’ extension has been covered a number of different places with Andrew Brandt at the National Football Post giving a great insiders perspective but that has never stopped me from adding my take. Williams got a much-deserved four-year, $33 million extension with $11 million in guarantees. The deal averages $8.25 million per year (14th among all NFL cornerbacks), which makes Williams the 4th highest paid Packers behind Aaron Rodgers, Charles Woodson, and Greg Jennings. In a bit of an oddity, Williams signed the deal last week but was not announced until earlier this week. The Packers had to do something because Williams was playing on a one-year, $3.043 million tender (36th among NFL cornerbacks) that would have allowed him to become a free agent after the 2010 season. Here is an annual breakdown of the deal:
- 2010: $6 million signing bonus, $14.4 million base salary but only makes $5.1 million this year because the salary is pro-rated over 17 weeks ($11.1 million) = 11.1 million maximum
- 2011: $1 million base salary, $2.2 million roster bonus (due 30th day of the league year), $300,000 game day bonus ($18,750 for each game he is on the 45-man active roster), and $100,000 workout bonus = $3.6 million maximum
- 2012: $2.3 million base salary, $2.5 million roster bonus (due 15th day of the league year), $300,000 game day bonus ($18,750 for each game he is on the 45-man active roster), and $300,000 workout bonus = $5.4 million maximum
- 2013: $5.9 million base salary, $300,000 game day bonus ($18,750 for each game he is on the 45-man active roster), and $300,000 workout bonus = $6.5 million maximum
- 2014: $6.9 million base salary, $300,000 game day bonus ($18,750 for each game he is on the 45-man active roster), and $300,000 workout bonus = $7.5 million maximum

Finally Williams has a $250,000 escalator in his contract if he makes the Pro Bowl in 2011 through 2014, which I expect him to earn in 2011.

Was the extension worth it? Based on Williams’s performance in 2010 I would say so. Williams has not allowed a touchdown this year, amassed only 1 penalty, has 4 interceptions, and has defended 16 passes. As stated above, Williams will be the 14th highest paid cornerback in the NFL. Williams is on the cusp of becoming one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL so only being the 14th highest paid cornerback in the NFL seems like a good deal.

When Williams’s extension expires, he will only be 31. Odds are, the Packers and Williams will renegotiate that deal even before that because there is not any guaranteed money in the last two years of the deal.

Williams probably could have gotten more money if he waited till after the season but Williams always wanted to stay in Green Bay (who can blame him) and has a chance to renegotiate starting in 2013 because he will no longer have any guarantees for 2013 and 2014.

My ratings for each move on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the best possible score:
- Havner placed on IR: 3 (why did TT resign him?)
- Chillar placed on IR: 7 (let him get healthy for 2011)
- Gordy added to 53-man roster: 4 (should he play in front of Underwood?)
- Francois added to 53-man roster: 4 (don’t cover up the long snapper ever again)
- Smith added to the practice squad: 1 (no need for a 6th receiver)
- Young added to the practice squad: 3 (more combo DE/OLB are a good thing for 3-4 teams like the Packers)
- Williams Extension: 10 (pay the man his money…he earned it)