Friday, February 17, 2017

Building The 15 - (Another) Plea to Stand Pat at the 2017 NBA Trade Deadline

This is the 8th year (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016) that I've provided NBA Trade Deadline advice to Milwaukee Bucks (nominal) general manager John Hammond.  I used "(nominal)" because Jason Kidd's fingerprints are all over The 15 and the Bucks have their future GM in assistant GM Justin Zanik so while Hammond is still technically in charge, it is hard to determine whether he actually has final say on moves and I haven't even mentioned the trio of guys that bought the Bucks from Herb Kohl.

While the Bucks won their last three games going into the 2017 NBA All-Star break, they dropped seven of their last 11 games and literally limped into the All-Star break after Jabari Parker tore the same ACL for the second time in just three NBA seasons.  I'd like to think that my advice in this column would be the same if Parker were healthy but frankly it changes things slightly now that the Bucks have what looks like a reason to tank just once more before they open their new arena for the 2018-19 NBA season that I will forever refer to as The Beer Barrel.  I say what looks like a reason because the Bucks were struggling before Parker's injury but now they can semi-couch tanking as a result of losing Parker for 12 months.

The financial ramifications of Parker's serious knee injuries could be catastrophic for not only him but frankly the Bucks too.  After Parker missed most of his rookie season in the NBA due to tearing his left ACL in mid-December of 2014, he actually started his second season in the NBA healthy and put up pretty decent numbers given that he returned to the court in less than 12 months following a serious knee injuryThis season Parker's offensive game went to the next level averaging just a nick over 20 points a game while adding a three point shot to his offensive repertoire.  NBA players can sign extensions that start after their rookie contract following their third NBA season but given that Parker will miss more than half of his fourth NBA season recovering from a second tear to his left ACL, it will be hard for the Bucks to commit a max contract before next season because there is no way to know whether Parker will ever be the same player again.  I hate to be too fatalist about Parker's career given that he is still only 21 years old but midway through this season I thought there was a chance he would push for an All-Star appearance in the next couple seasons, now I (sadly) question whether he will ever make an All-Star team.

On a more positive note, the Bucks have two members of The 15 participating this weekend in some of the 2017 NBA All-Star Weekend festivities.  Rookie Malcom Brogdon aka Right Handed Michael Redd is playing in the NBA Rising Stars Game and The Greek Freak is participating in the NBA All-Star game to give the Bucks their first All-Star since the aforementioned Michael Redd played in the 2004 NBA All-Star Game in Los Angeles.

I will do my duty and post fake trades for Hammond/Kidd/Zanik/ownership but unless the Bucks are able to off-load another one of the crap contracts they signed this off-season, I would rather they just stand pat.  Realistically The Greek Freak is the only untouchable on The 15 but despite injury concerns for both, I would classify Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker as virtually untouchable so it would take a very special package to land Middleton or Parker.

As I've said many times in the past, I would hate to see the Bucks part with any future first round picks given that is really their only way of adding transcendent talent to The 15; see Freak, The Greek and Parker, Jabari.  I am even reticent to include a second round draft pick too because although the Bucks still have extra second round picks, given some of the crap contracts the Bucks currently have on The 15, I would much rather see them focus more on drafting and developing instead of overpaying on the free agent market.

NBA trades are mostly about shuffling around expensive contracts in hopes that a change of scenery turns one team's trash into another team's treasure, which is why I wrote an NBA General Manager Buyer's Remorse Day post a couple years ago.  With the 2017 NBA Trade Deadline (Thursday, February 23rd at 2:00 PM CST) rapidly approaching, here are my favorite somewhat plausible trades (least favorite to most favorite) that I put together for Hammond's review with an assist from ESPN's NBA Trade Machine that he could float to other general manager this weekend at the 2017 NBA All-Star Weekend in New Orleans:

#5) Bucks trade Jason Terry (G) to the Atlanta Hawks for a second round pick:
Terry recently said that he wants to play two more seasons in the NBA but not sure he will have that option.  Either way, this trade would bring things full circle for Terry by taking him back to where his NBA career started.  Not sure what Terry brings to the table at this point other than a strong locker room presence for a playoff bound team that might be able to occasionally give you a spark off the bench.  Of the five trades potential trades that I am going to float, I actually think this one has a realistic change of happening but barely registers on the sexy scale.  I see the Hawks looking to do something bigger than a deal like this to help their playoff push so I don't see this deal going down unless the Hawks strike out across the board with all other bigger deals and try to pull this one off right before the trade deadline.

Bucks trade Matthew Dellavedova (G) to the Indiana Pacers for Jeff Teague (G):
Whenever a team is trying to pander to their star that could leave town, they inevitably overpay; see James, LeBron's first rodeo in Cleveland.  Indiana Pacers small forward Paul George can opt-out of his contract at the end of next season and he has yet to commit to the Pacers long-term so word is that the Pacers are willing to overpay to keep George happy.  I've admired Teague for a long time and given that he is an expiring contract, the Pacers get a worse player but more cost certainty in Dellavedova.  I love this deal for the Bucks and hate it for the Pacers so that is why it is the first one floated because Pacers president Larry Bird would be foolish to make this deal.  Then again, desperate times sometimes call for desperate measures.

#3) Bucks trade John Henson (PF/C) to the Phoenix Suns for Brandon Knight (PG):
I wanted to dangle Matthew Dellavedova instead of Henson but even though Knight has struggled this season so much that he is relegated to a reserve role, Dellavedova has had an even worse season so the Bucks need to part with a guy that seems to have a ton of promise but sadly doesn't deliver as much on the promise as much as he should.  I am talking about Henson but that last sentence describes Knight's tenure in Phoenix too so this seems like a perfect trade for both teams.  In hindsight there is no question that Hammond should have taken the Top 5 protected pick instead of MCW when he traded Knight to the Suns.  I see Henson and Knight as slightly distressed assets.  Given that the NBA has a glut of big-men and unless you can shoot a three you are becoming a dinosaur in the league, I would rather see the Bucks take a flier on Knight regaining his 2013 through 2015 form than hold onto Henson.

#2) Bucks trade Greg Monroe (C) and Jason Terry (G) to the Orlando Magic for Nikola Vucevic (C) and Mario Hezonja (SG):
I am obligated to float at least one Greg Monroe trade.  Initially I thought about Monroe to the Denver Nuggets for power forward Kenneth Faried.  I've long been a fan of the Manimal and it seems like the Nuggets are always looking to move him but don't think the potential of only a few months of Monroe is enough for Manimal even though Monroe has had a nice offensive resurgence this season after a disappointing first season in Milwaukee.  There are very few subpar GM's left in the NBA but thankfully Rob Hennigan is one of them and still in charge of the Magic.  Sure the Magic got the better end of the J.J. Redick/Tobias Harris deal but this is the same guy that in the last 12 months turned Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova, and Domantas Sabonis into a couple months of Serge Ibaka only to flip Ibaka to the Toronto Raptors for Terrence Ross and a late first round pick in the 2017 NBA Draft.  Pretty easy to say you'd rather have Oladipo/Sabonis than Ross/2017 late first rounder.  While Vucevic seems like the headliner of the deal for the Bucks given that he is a quality front court player, I actually still think Hezonja is a superstar in the making despite struggling so far in his NBA career.  While Monroe has developed into a quality offense first guy to bring off the bench at center, there is a chance that Hezonja develops into a starting shooting guard or worst case a heat check guy to bring off the bench in crunch time.  Given what I said earlier about the NBA having a glut of quality big guys and skewing towards shooting as many three as possible, I would much rather have an offense first shooting guard than an offense first center.

#1) Bucks trade Khris Middleton (SG/SF) and Jason Terry (PG/SG) to the Boston Celtics for Amir Johnson (C), Jaylen Brown (SF), and the Brooklyn Nets' 2018 first round pick:
I know this is going to make Celtics fans head explode because they always overvalue their guys but frankly the Celtics get more long-term cost certainty at the expensive of a couple super interesting lottery tickets in this deal, which is exactly what they need given all the potential flux that their roster is going to go through in the next 18 months.  Middleton is on a criminally team friendly NBA contract given that he is in the second year of a five-year, $70 million contract that actually pays him less each season starting next season.  The one caveat to that is Middleton owns a player option on the last season but if Middleton is playing so well that he is going to opt-out to sign a big money deal, better to have him plant some roots in Boston ahead of signing that extension.  While Middleton is not truly a superstar, he is a prototypical 3-and-D guy.  Besides having a Top 10 player on your team, the most valuable thing in the NBA right now is having as many 3-and-D guys as possible.  Speaking of 3-and-D guys, Brown is the wildcard.  Right now Brown is shooting 30% from three but take that with a grain of salt because he is a 20-year old NBA rookie.  Some thought the Celtics reached for Brown with the 3rd pick in the 2016 NBA Draft but there is a chance that he becomes one of the best defenders in the NBA in a couple seasons, which is the perfect guy to pair with The Greek Freak and Parker.  If Brown can develop a long-distance shot, the Celtics will be kicking themselves for trading him away but there is no guarantee that Brown can add that dimension to his game.  There is a chance that Tony Snell can give the Bucks 75% of Middleton's production at 75% of Middleton's price so that allows the Bucks to proactively push back their window of being a real Eastern Conference contender a season or two, which coincides perfectly with the opening of The Beer Barrel.  Finally, the Celtics have to cash in some of their draft picks because there are only 15 players allowed on NBA roster and it feels like they have 15 picks in the next three NBA Drafts.  Sure the 2018 Brooklyn Nets could be a Top 3 pick but a Middleton in the hand is definitely better than a Brown and a bird in the bush given that the Celtics are making a legitimate run at winning the Eastern conference this season.

If Hammond actually makes another move before the 2017 NBA Trade Deadline, which I am on records as hoping he doesn't, check back for full coverage in this space.  In the meantime, enjoy watching Right Handed Michael Redd and The Greek Freak in the 2017 NBA All-Star Weekend festivities in New Orleans.

Saturday, December 5, 2015

(I Wish) I Went There - Rodgers-to-Rodgers

I know it is cliche to write about how much technology has changed how we consume sports but it bears at least a mention following the Thursday Night Football game between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in Detroit.  The game ended on arguably the most improbable regular season throw-and-catch in franchise history when Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers found tight end Richard Rodgers for a 61-yard touchdown for the Packers to take the lead for the first time in the game with no time left on the clock.  For the next 24 hours, I clicked through my Twitter feed and ran countless Google searches to relive one of the most exciting moments in Packers' franchise history.  Here are my five favorite screenshots/tweets/videos of Rodger-to-Rodgers:

#5) Dean Blandino: Some say that the Packers should not have even had the chance to run that play because the referees should not have assessed Lions defensive lineman Devin Taylor with a face-mask penalty on the previous desperation play to give the Packers an un-timed play to end the game but Dean Blandino, the Vice President of Officiating for the NFL, points out in his tweet that it looked like a face-mask in real time.  This seems like the perfect time for me to explain my "Gold Ticket Challenge" idea.  Simply put, every team would have one Golden Ticket Challenge each game that they can use on one play to review any aspect of that play.  In this instance, assuming Lions head coach Jim Caldwell did not already use his Golden Ticket Challenge, he would have challenged whether it was actually a face-mask penalty on Tayor.  Even reviewing the play in slow-motion it looks like the defender grazed Rodgers's face-mask.  After watching the replay at least a dozen time sin slow-motion I can't deny it was probably not a face-mask on Taylor but I totally understand why the ref threw the flag.  Sadly for the Lions and their fans, the NFL still has not implemented my Golden Ticket Challenge rule yet since certain aspects of plays (e.g. pass interference, face-mask, and other judgment calls that potentially have large consequences) are not currently reviewable.

#4) BigCat: Let's not forget that the Lions beat the Packers in Green Bay a couple weeks ago for their first win in the state of Wisconsin since 1991 so this improbable win actually feels like payback despite the fact that the Packers have dominated the Lions for the last couple decades given that the Packers won 26 of the last 33 games between the two teams.

#3) Albert Breer: I appreciate Breer's honesty but it might be a little aggressive for him to call-out the Lions like that given that he is a national reporter for the NFL Network so I presume that Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin and possibly the rest of the Lions organization will not be very forthright with Breer going forward.

#2) Deez Nuts: Oh, so sad for Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford.

#1) Brandicle: I tried to check whether the person that shot this video secretly works as a videographer for NFL Network but he has a protected Twitter account so let this serve as a thank you Brandon, you shot the best (possibly) amateur video of one of the greatest regular season moments in Packer franchise history.

If the Packers lost to the Lions on Thursday, they risked becoming the 3rd team in NFL history to miss the playoffs after starting the season 6-0.  Thankfully the 2015 Packers will now not join the 2003 Minnesota Vikings and the 2009 Denver Broncos since they beat the Lions in dramatic fashion to improve to 8-4 unless they lose out.  Every Cheesehead sports fan hopes Rodgers-to-Rodgers is the play that rights the ship and gives them a chance to march towards a Super Bowl 50 win.

Monday, August 24, 2015

Building The 53 - 2015 Preseason Week 2 - Packers/Steelers Review

The biggest talking point following the Green Bay Packers/Pittsburgh Steelers preseason game will be on the fact that the Packers lost Jordy Nelson for the season to a torn ACL on a non-contact play.  There is no question that the way that Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson and head coach Mike McCarthy approach the preseason will be altered based the fact that the Packers lost Nelson for the season in a meaningless game.  Here are a few other thoughts on how the Packers/Steelers preseason game impacted The 53:

Player that hurt his stock most - Tim Masthay: The Packers signed former Alabama punter Cody Mandell in the off-season to give Masthay some competition.  Reports are that Mandell was a pain on and off the field given that he was NOT able to establish a rapport with Crosby as a holder and apparently is quite cocky.  Even though Mandell is no longer with the Packers, Masthay's performance against the Steelers is the personification of how he is still too inconsistent to just give him the starting punter job to open the season.  Masthay averaged 43.3 yards per punt with a long 56 yard punt against the Steelers.  That all sounds good but remember that Masthay had a 29 yard punt too, which is unacceptable in the NFL.  Masthay is veering into A.J. Hawk territory where I honestly wonder if he has incriminating pictures of Green Bay Packers president Mark Murphy, Thompson, or McCarthy.   Odds are that Masthay will be the punter for the Packers in 2015 because of his familiarity as a holder for Crosby but if Masthay continues to struggle through the rest of the preseason and a quality punter gets cut during final roster cut-downs, I hope Thompson considers adding that punter in place of Masthay.

Player that helped his stock most - Aaron Ripkowski: Given that fullback John Kuhn went to college at Shippensburg University and was on the practice squad for the Steelers to finish the 2005 NFL season, it is only fitting that we discuss the heir apparent to fullback/core special teamer John Kuhn when the Packers are in Pittsburgh.  Ripkowski had two special teams tackles against the Steelers, which will go a long way to convincing Thompson to keep two fullbacks, which seems borderline crazy in 2015.  Sure the fullback position seems to be going the way of the dodo but let's not forget that the Packers actually had three fullbacks on The 53 when they won Super Bowl XLV (Korey Hall, Kuhn, and Quinn Johnson).  Given that Kuhn is 33 years old while Ripkowski is just 22 years old and signed to a cap-friendly rookie contract, I actually think Ripkowski is more of a lock for The 53 than Kuhn to open the 2015 NFL season.

Position to watch - Wide Receiver: There is no question that Nelson has been highly productive the last two seasons so his presence will be sorely missed in 2015.  For those that don't remember the exact numbers, Nelson caught 85 passes for 1,314 yards and eight touchdowns in 2013.  Somehow Nelson bested those marks across the board in 2014 with 98 catches, 1,519 yards, and 13 touchdowns.  That is a ton of production to replace but the Packers look stacked with young potential at wide receiver given that if everyone is healthy the Packers have six legitimate candidates for five or six spots on The 53: Randall Cobb (25 years old, 5'10", 192 lbs), Davante Adams (22 years old, 6'1", 215 lbs), Ty Montgomery (22 years old, 6'0", 216 lbs), Jeff Janis (24 years old, 6'3", 219 lbs), Myles White (25 years old, 6'0", 190 lbs), and Jared Abbrederis (24 years old, 6'1" and 195 lbs).  I get it that Nelson is the bell-cow of the wide receiver group but if Janis can fulfill all the promise that the Packers saw in him before the 2014 NFL Draft, I see him as a poor man's Nelson for 2015 and Janis is 4th on the depth chart.  There is talk that former Packer wide receivers James Jones (New York Giants) and Jarrett Boykin (Carolina Panthers) will NOT make The 53 for their respective teams so the Packers also have the option to bring back one of those guys too if they are NOT confident enough in the six-pack of Cobb, Adams, Montgomery, Janis, White, and Abbrederis.

Final Note: The Nelson injury might be the tipping point for the Packers.  Usually the 3rd NFL preseason game is when the starters play the most but I would be shocked to see quarterback Aaron Rodgers take even one snap in that game.  Nelson was NOT the only injury of note from the game, unfortunately the Packers suffered a number of other injuries to players that will be on The 53 in 2015.  Rodgers looked to have tweaked his wrist, rookie cornerback Damarious Randall battled dehydration, and both right guard T.J. Lang and quarterback Scott Tolzien suffered concussions.  The Steelers looked to have lost starting center Maurkice Pouncey for an extended period of time too with an ankle injury.  Injuries are a part of the game but everyone hates to see that happen in preseason games.  I am NOT sure the answer is to sit all the starters for the next two games though because I fear that would mean the starters would go into the regular season opener on the road against the Chicago Bears too rusty.  I am fine with sitting guys like Rodgers and running back Eddie Lacy but given all the question marks on defense, I hope the Packers give their starters on defense at least some reps in the next two games.

Unless the Packers make any significant roster moves before their next preseason game at home next Saturday against the Philadelphia Eagles, check back next Sunday for my review of how the Packers/Eagles preseason game impacts Building The 53.

Friday, August 14, 2015

Building The 53 - 2015 Preseason Week 1 - Packers/Patriots Review

Going into the 2015 NFL preseason almost everything on offense is settled given that the Packers project to return every starter while almost everything on defense is equally unsettled given that the Packers need to replace at least one starter at both linebacker and cornerback.  Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson will keep a close eye on everything throughout training camp but I am sure there will be an extra focus on the defensive side of the ball given all the personnel changes.  With that in mind, here are a few of my thoughts on how the Packers/Patriots preseason game impacted The 53:

Player that hurt his stock most - Don Barclay: Going into the training camp, I thought Barclay was a borderline lock to make The 53 so I made him one of the nine Most Likelies*.  Barclay is still rehabbing a knee injury that cost him the entire 2014 NFL season and he looked rusty in his first preseason action.  Assuming that all the offensive lineman are healthy, the starters left to right project as follows: David Bakhtiari (LT), Josh Sitton (LG), Corey Linsley (C), T.J. Lang (RG), and Bryan Bulaga (RT).  For the first time in a long time, the Packers actually have some quality depth along the offensive line in Matt Rotheram (G), JC Tretter (C/G), Lane Taylor (G), Jeremy Vujnovich (T), and Josh Walker (G).  It seems crazy to say this but assuming that every offensive lineman is healthy and Thompson keeps eight offensive lineman on The 53 to open the season, Barclay's spot on The 53 could be in jeopardy given the emergence of all the other young pups.

Player that helped his stock most - LaDarius Gunter:  There is no doubt that Gunter turned some heads in practice given the he is the only defensive back with multiple interceptions of Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in training camp and he continued his impressive play in his first preseason game action when he picked off backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in the 3rd quarter. Despite the fact that Thompson used his first two picks in the 2015 NFL Draft on defensive backs when he drafted Damarious Randall (Arizona State) and Quinten Rollins (Miami University), it still looks like Gunter is going to make The 53 as an undrafted free agent.  Randall sat out against the Patriots with a groin injury but assuming all cornerbacks are healthy and the Packers leave Micah Hyde at safety, here is how the cornerback depth chart currently looks: Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, Rollins, Randall, Gunter, and Demetri Goodson.

Position to watch - Defensive Line: Letroy Guion and Mike Daniels, two of the three presumptive starters along the defensive line sat out the Patriots game due to injury.  That gave a number of backups the chance to show they belong.  Here is a breakdown of the snap counts for each of the defensive lineman against the Patriots: Datone Jones (30), Mike Pennel (30), Bruce Gaston (26), Khyri Thornton (20), Josh Boyd (12), B.J. Raji (11), Christian Ringo (10), and Lavon Hooks (6).  The fact that Pennel and Gaston got more snaps than Thornton is NOT a good sign for Thornton given that this training camp seems to be make-or-break for the former 3rd round pick of the 2014 NFL Draft after he spent the entire 2014 NFL season on injured reserve since there was little chance he would have made The 53 to open the 2014 NFL season.  Given that Jones (suspended for Week 1) and Guion (suspended through Week 3 pending his appeal) will (most likely) be suspended to start the 2015 NFL season, there look to be five spots available along the defensive line for other guys.  If I had to handicap the guys for those five spots, here is how I would hand them out as of today: Daniels, Boyd, Raji, Pennel, and Gaston.  That leaves Thornton and Ringo on the outside looking in at this point but thankfully they have the rest of training camp and three more preseason games to change Thompson's mind.

Final Note: I can't tell you how sick I am of hearing about Deflategate.  If Tom Brady was more forthright, the NFL would have turned the page.  Since that didn't happened, we've been forced to endure one of the most mind-numbing NFL stories in a long time.  If you are a Patriots fan then you think the NFL is out to get you and that NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is out to retroactively re-punish the Patriots more for Spygate since many think Goodell let the Patriots off easy given how close he is with Patriots owner Robert Kraft.  If you are a fan of the other 31 NFL teams, you see a dysfunctional commissioner in Goodell that somehow botched what seemed to be a fairly straight forward process.  Ultimately I assume that Brady will NOT miss any games but the fact is that no one wins given how horribly this process has been handled by everyone.

Unless the Packers make any significant roster moves before their next preseason game on the road next Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers, check back next Monday for my review of how the Packers/Steelers preseason game impacts Building The 53.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Building The 53 - The Most Likelies*

Yesterday I gave you my 35 locks* to make The 53, here are the 9 guys that I think will most likely* make The 53:
Quarterback: Brett Hundley

Running BackNone
Fullback: John Kuhn and Aaron Ripkowski 
Wide Receiver: Jeff Janis
Tight End
Offensive Tackle: Don Barclay
Offensive Guard: None

Center: None
Defensive End: None
Defensive Tackle: None
Middle Linebacker: Nate Palmer and Jake Ryan

Outside Linebacker: None
Cornerback: None

Safety: Sean Richardson
Specialist: Tim Masthay

That means absent injury, there are really only 9 roster spots on The 53 up for grabs going into training camp.  Check back tomorrow for my initial thoughts on how those final 9 roster spots will shake out.