Building The 25 - Brewers Trade for Outfielder Gerardo Parra

There were grumblings that Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin was trying to make a C.C. Sabathia-esque splash at the trade deadline to help the Brewers push The 25 to the next level.  David Price (formerly) of the Tampa Bay Rays was the C.C. Sabathia of this trade deadline given that both are dominate left-handed starting pitchers.  The only difference between 2014 Price and 2008 Sabathia are their contractual situations.  When the Brewers acquired Sabathia from the Cleveland Indians at the 2008 trade deadline, they knew it was a rental for just that season since Sabathia was due to become a free agent at the end of the season.  Conversely, Price is signed through next season so that increases his value slightly over 2008 Sabathia.

The Brewers gave up outfielder Michael Brantley, pitcher Rob Bryson, pitcher Zach Jackson and first-baseman Matt LaPorta to get Sabathia.  At the time LaPorta was the centerpiece of the trade but Michael Brantley (actually the "player to be named later" in the trade that is usually a short-list of guys that the Indians could choose from later) ended up being the best of the bunch.  Ultimately the Rays moved Price to the Detroit Tigers in a three-team deal that also involved the Seattle Mariners. The Rays got left-handed pitcher Drew Smyly and minor league infielder Willy Adames from the Tigers as well as infielder Nick Franklin from the Mariners.  The Mariners got center-fielder Austin Jackson from the Tigers.

Just to muddy the waters a little more, the compensation rules were slightly different when the Brewers acquired Sabathia than they are now, which increased Sabathia's value despite the fact that the Brewers knew there was a 1% chance that Sabathia would re-sign with them.  All the Brewers had to do after the season was tender Sabathia a one-year, qualifying offer so they would at least get draft pick compensation for "losing" Sabathia to free agency.  There was virtually no chance that Sabathia was going to accept a one-year offer given how much he could command on the free agent market so the qualifying offer was always a farce.

Ultimately Sabathia signed an eight-year, $186 million contract with the New York Yankees and the Brewers got 39th pick in the 2009 MLB Draft as compensation, which they used to select outfielder Kentrail Davis.  Right now Davis is stuck in Double-A, which is disappointing given his draft status.  Unless Davis can pick things up in the next year, I do not see him as a part of the long-terms plans at the big league level for the Brewers.  That trick to get draft pick compensation is no longer an option under the new collective bargaining agreement.  In order to get draft pick compensation under the new CBA, a player has to be on The 25 for at least one season.  That means the Tigers will get draft pick compensation if they lose Price after next season but the Brewers would not have gotten draft pick compensation if they lost Sabathia in 2014 like they did in 2008.

Instead of making a splash, Melvin made a slight ripple when he acquired outfielder Gerardo Parra from the Arizona Diamondbacks for minor-leaguers Anthony Banda (left-handed pitcher) and Mitch Haniger (outfielder).  Although Parra has struggled offensively this season hitting just .259, he is two-time Gold Glove winner so we know he can field his position.  Parra also gives the Brewers a left-handed bat in the outfield that they desperately need since each of their starters (Kris Davis, Carlos Gomez, and Ryan Braun) hits from the right side.  In terms of Parra's contract situation, the Brewers have him under team control through 2015 if they like but if Parra declines that tender after the 2015 season and signs elsewhere, at least the Brewers can get draft pick compensation if they tender him for the next two seasons.

In terms of what the Brewers gave up, Hainger is clearly the better of the two prospects.  The Brewers drafted Hainger 38th overall in the 2012 MLB Draft and is one of the better prospects in their somewhat disappointing farm system. So far Hainger has been alright hitting .255 in Double-A this season.  This trade finally allows the Diamondbacks to get Banda.  Originally the Diamondbacks drafted Banda in the 33rd round of the 2011 MLB Draft but Banda did not sign so he entered the 2012 MLB Draft and the Brewers took Banda in the 10th round of that draft.  So far Banda has been decent in 2014 posting a 3.66 ERA in Single-A so far this season.

Hainger projects as a utility outfielder while Banda does not project as anything better than a left-handed reliever so that doesn't seem like too much to give up to get a legitimate 4th outfielder, especially since their current 4th outfielder Logan Schafer is batting a measly .183 this season.  Plus, current starting left-fielder Kris Davis is hitting just .232 against right-handers while Parra is hitting .271 against right handers so I see the Brewers platooning Davis and Parra the rest of 2014 with Davis starting against left-handers and Parra starting against right-handers.

If Melvin just held onto outfielder Nori Aoki instead of trading him for left-hander Will Smith, there would have been no need to acquire Parra.  At the time of the Aoki/Smith trade I hated it but given how well Smith has pitched this year out of the bullpen, the Aoki/Smith trade does not look as bad now as I thought it would.  Landing Parra is not a Sabathia-esque acquisition but clearly the asking price for Price (no pun intended) was too high for the Brewers given that their farm system is so devoid of high-end talent that I am not even sure they could have made the Rays a legitimate offer for Price.  Truthfully it is just nice to see the Brewers in a pennant race and thus buyers at the trade deadline instead of sellers.

Although training camp is starting for the Green Bay Packers so I will have a ton of Packers posts, I will do my best to post more on the Brewers thru the end of the season given that they are in the midst of one of the most pleasantly surprising seasons in the last decade as they make a legitimate run at winning the N.L. Central and making the playoffs for the first time since 2011.

The 25 - My First In-Person Look at 2014 Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers currently own the best record in baseball, which is probably the biggest surprise of the 2014 MLB season so far.  Following my first installment of The 25 on opening day, I decided that I would wait for my first in-season update until I saw the Brewers in-person.  Last night I got to see the Brewers play the Cincinnati Reds on the road at The Great American Ballpark with Cheesehead Chick and In-Law Cheese.

The game was poised to be a pitcher's duel given that Gallardo went into the game with a 1.91 ERA while Cueto had a 1.15 ERA. Gallardo turned in his first bum performance of the season given that he allowed more than three runs over six innings for the first time in seven starts in 2014.  Unfortunately for the Brewers, Cueto was stellar for the Reds.  On that topic, a local pizza restaurant runs a promotion that if the Reds strikeout 11 guys they giveaway a small pizza to each ticket holder.  Cueto came close in the 8th with almost the entire stadium chanting PIZZA, PIZZA, PIZZA at the top of their lungs.  A guy a few rows behind us got so excited that he yelled "I JUST WANT TO EAT" at the top of his lungs.  Unfortunately for the Reds faithful, Cueto was unable to seal the deal so although the Reds won, their fans will not be able to get their free small pizza that they apparently desperately need.  High comedy all around.

While we are on the topic of food, the Reds have great food options throughout the stadium.  My favorite spot is next to the right field fair pole.  Not only does the food stand offer the local fair of the opposing team (they fittingly had beer brats) but they also have a ton of tasty Leinenkugel beers on tap that you can mix and match.  My favorite combo is the Honey Bear, which is 1/2 glass of Leinenkugel's Honey Weiss and 1/2 glass of Leinenkugel's Berry Weiss.  The cherry on top is that you can watch the relievers for the opposing team warm up right around the corner from the concession stand I just described.  If the opposing team's fans want to feel at home with some tasty local food and drinks while keeping an eye on their relievers, they should get tickets by the right field fair pole.

Without further adu, here are my updated rankings to The 25 following my first in-person look at the Brewers this season:

Player Rankings

1. Jean Segura (SS, LR 1) 2. Carlos Gomez (CF, LR 2) 3. Jonathan Lucroy (C, LR 3) 4. Yovani Gallardo (RSP, LR 6) 5. Wily Peralta (RSP, LR 8) 6. Kyle Lohse (RSP, LR 5) 7. Matt Garza (RSP, LR 7) 8. Tyler Thornburg (RSP, LR 9) 9. Scooter Gennett (2B, LR 10) 10. Francisco Rodriguez (RRP, LR 20) 11. Marco Estrada (RSP, LR 11) 12. Khris Davis (LF, LR 12) 13. Will Smith (LRP, LR 14) 14. Aramis Ramirez (3B, LR 16) 15. Brandon Kintzler (RRP, LR 15) 16. Logan Schafer (LF, LR 18) 17. Martin Maldonado (C, LR 22) 18. Zach Duke (LRP, LR 21) 19. Lyle Overbay (1B, LR 24) 20. Wei-Chung Wang (RRP, LR 17) 21. Mark Reynolds (1B, LR 19) 22. Jeff Bianchi (3B, LR 23) 23. Caleb Gindl (OF, NR N/A) 24. Rob Wooten (RRP, NR N/A) 25. Rickie Weeks (2B, LR 25)

Disabled List

1. Ryan Braun (RF, 15-DL) 2. Jim Henderson (RRP, 15-DL) 3. Tom Gorzelanny (LRP, 15-DL)

#2) Carlos Gomez (CF, LR 2): Baseball has an unwritten code that Gomez refuses to follow, which certainly gets under the skin of the opposing team.  Sure I wish Gomez ran out sacrifice fly instead of admiring them but every other Brewer comes to his defense on a regular basis so I guess the fact that Gomez bucks the normal baseball trends is fine with me.  Add in that Gomez is becoming one of the best centerfielders in baseball four years later than expected and that makes him the most interesting player currently on The 25. With all due respect to Nyjer "Tony Plush" Morgan, I am not sure there is a Brewer more liked by his team and more loathed by the opposition than Gomez in franchise history.  It is almost as if Gomez was put on earth to get under the skin of sanctimoniousness Cardinals players and fans.

#10) Francisco Rodriguez (RRP, LR 20): Going into the season it looked like Jim Henderson was going to be the closer but after a shaky end to spring training, the Brewers went with K-Rod instead of Henderson.  So far K-Rod is perfect with an 0.00 ERA over 17 innings thanks to 24 strikeouts while allowing just four walks and seven hits.  I am not a huge fan of saves as a legitimate MLB stat but the fact that K-Rod tied an all-time record of most saves before May 1st with 13 just shows you how well things are going for the Brewers so far this season.  Given that K-Rod is currently a perfect 14-for-14, I see a couple rough outings coming up sometime soon but we might as well enjoy the tide till K-Rod falters.

#12) Khris Davis (LF, LR 12): The Brewers are taking the anti-Moneyball approach by trying to do as much damage as possible, early in at-bats, against starting pitchers.  That means instead of working the count, the Brewers are swinging early and often if they see a pitch they like.  That is great if you can get to the starting pitcher but if you don't, that allows starters to work longer into the game since they do not rack up huge pitch counts.  Davis seems like the biggest culprit of the anti-Moneyball approach, which worked last season but has not been as successful this year.  Sure Davis has a ton of time to turn things around but if he continues to struggle it will bring my problems with the Aoki/Myers trade to fruition.

It is only the beginning of May but given the (monotony) length of a baseball season, the fact that the Brewers get along so well is powered by more than just Everybody Wei-Chung Tonight, Pharrell Williams, or just Hank the Dog.  If this trend continues, I see the Brewers actually being buyers at the trade deadline to help jump start their playoff run.

The 25 - 0 Down and 162 (& hopefully more) to Go

For those new to this space, The 25 is much like The 53 posts that I do for the Green Bay Packers or The 15 posts that I do for the Milwaukee Bucks.  For each iteration of the post throughout the season I rank the trade value of the entire active roster based on age, contract, health, and reasonable expected future performance.  Instead of writing a short blurb about each player, I will focus on a few with the most interesting changes since the last post.  Basically this post is meant to help Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin properly value his assets for potential trades while simultaneously shinning light the biggest needs on The 25.

If that seems too abstract let me go over a simple example.  Right fielder Ryan Braun is probably the most talented player on The 25 despite coming off a 65-game suspension for use of performance enhancing drugs (PED's).  When you factor in Braun's mega contract and age, there are actually other players on The 25 that are more desirable to the other 29 MLB general managers so that is why he is not ranked number one.  Without further adu, here are my initial rankings of The 25 of the Brewers in 2014:

Player Rankings

1. Jean Segura (SS) 2. Carlos Gomez (CF) 3. Jonathan Lucroy (C) 4. Ryan Braun (RF) 5. Kyle Lohse (RSP) 6. Yovani Gallardo (RSP) 7. Matt Garza (RSP) 8. Wily Peralta (RSP) 9. Tyler Thornburg (RSP) 10. Scooter Gennett (2B) 11. Marco Estrada (RSP) 12. Khris Davis (LF) 13. Jim Henderson (RRP) 14. Will Smith (LRP) 15. Brandon Kintzler (RRP) 16. Aramis Ramirez (3B) 17. Wei-Chung Wang (RRP) 18. Logan Schafer (LF) 19. Mark Reynolds (1B) 20. Francisco Rodriguez (RRP) 21. Zach Duke (LRP) 22. Martin Maldonado (C) 23. Jeff Bianchi (3B) 24. Lyle Overbay (1B) 25. Rickie Weeks (2B)

Disabled List

1. Tom Gorzelanny (LRP, 15-DL)

#1) Jean Segura (SS): Melvin is going to look back at Opening Day 2014 as the start of the official count down to Segura's exit from Milwaukee.  Melvin and Segura's agent discussed an extension but apparently were so far off that negotiations brown down right after they started.  The Atlanta Braves recently signed shortstop Andrelton Simmons to a seven-year, $58 million contract.  That is a little rich compared to what Segura should command but is at least a relevant data point for the negotiations.  I actually don't understand Melvin's thinking given that the the first long-term contract extension for young studs (e.g. Tampa Bay Rays third basemen Evan Longoria's six-year, $17 million contract with three years and $30 million in rolling guarantees with a $3 million buyout to stretch it to a ridiculously affordable nine-year, $47 million contract or Braun's initial eight-year, $45 million contract) are NOT financially crippling. The Brewers should get Segura locked up long-term on the cheap(er) now but proceed cautiously on his second long-term extension because that one can be a back breaker (e.g. Braun's five-year, $105 million extension).

#4) Ryan Braun (RF): We know that Braun tested positive for the use of some performance enhancing drug in the same season he was voted the N.L. MVP.  Braun fought the positive results and ultimately pulled the reverse Al Capone. We know Braun was ultimately suspended but the specifics of why Braun was suspended for 65-games is still not completely flushed out given that he apparently negotiated a shorter suspension.  That worked out well for Braun since last season he was scheduled to earn $8.5 million before his 65-game suspension so he lost out on $3.4 million (65/162 * $8.5 million) but returns to the field this season when his salary jumps to $10 million before going to $12 million in 2015.

I am sure fans will cheer Braun in the home opener and sanctimonious baseball writers, the same ones that blindly covered the Bonds/Sosa/McGwire PED fueled home-run era with kid gloves, will decry Brewers fans as stupid.  I am torn on this one because if Braun wasn't so indignant when he won his PED suspension appeal, I might cut him some slack but the way he savagely attacked the sample collector is unforgivable to me.

Plus Braun roped in Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers into backing his "innocence".  Since then, Rodgers severed his personal and professional (used to co-own 8-Twelve MVP Bar & Grill) ties with Braun.  The Brewers have Braun under contract through at least 2020 so let's hope the healing process can being today.  Hopefully if Braun can put up decent numbers while clean, at least that would allow the Brewers to get some assets in return for Braun but if Braun struggles sans PED's then Melvin has a potential franchise crippling contract on The 25 for almost a decade.

#10) Scooter Gennett (2B): Hopefully we are in the infancy of another home grown youth movement for the Brewers.  In the mid-to-late 2000's the Brewers graduated the likes of Braun, Prince Fielder, and Rickie Weeks from their farm system.  Since then, they failed to graduate an everyday player from the farm system that they drafted at any position besides catcher.  Gennett is gunning to replace the much maligned and overpaid Weeks, which is one of the last everyday players Melvin drafted and developed.  Besides Gennett, Melvin is placing tons of faith in left fielder Khris Davis to give the Brewers two graduates of their farm system via the draft as opening day starters for the first time since the late 2000's.

#17) Wei-Chung Wang (RRP): The most improbable member of The 25 went from pitching in single-A for the Pittsburgh Pirates last season to the majors this season.  Melvin selected Wang in the Rule 5 Draft, which means Wang has to stay on The 25 (or disable list) for the entire 2014 season or be sent back to the Pirates for half the amount the Brewers originally paid for Wang.  That condition on Wang's contract with the associated "buy-out" for sending him back to the Pirates makes it seem like he did not earn his spot on The 25 but in spring training Wang posted a 3.86 ERA to earn his spot on The 25 irrespective of the conditions of his contract.

I am not a huge fan of making broad season predictions, especially in baseball because teams evolve throughout the lengthy season, but for some reason I have a good feeling about the Brewers this season.  I am not ready to guarantee they will make the playoffs but I think it is more likely than not that they make the post-season for just the 5th time in 46 seasons and the first time since 2011.

For those lucky enough to attend Opening Day as the Brewers host the Braves, enjoy.  Make sure to check back in this space for regular coverage of the front office moves by Melvin throughout the season.

Building The 25 - 2014 Milwaukee Brewers Spring Training Preview

Welcome to my fifth annual Milwaukee Brewers spring training preview (2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013).  The Brewers enter spring training with at least 58 players in contention for The 25. Absent injury, 16 roster spots on The 25 are virtual locks, which leaves nine available roster spots.  That is the most roster spots on The 25 "available" going into spring training since 2010.  Below you will find a quick analysis of the entire roster heading into spring training along with my pre-spring training thoughts on what players Brewers general manager Doug Melvin should keep on The 25.

Catcher:
- Guaranteed: Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonado
- Borderline: None
- Long-shot: Robinzon Diaz, Cameron Garfield, Matt Pagnozzi, and Adam Weisenburger
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: This is the least dramatic battle of spring training given that the Brewers seem committed to Lucroy and Maldonado for the near term.  At one point it looked like Maldonado might be a nice trade piece but he struggled last season so absent a huge change, Maldonado better bring something more to the table than quality haircuts if he wants a spot on The 25 past 2014.

Infielders:
- Guaranteed: Scooter Gennett (2B), Aramis Ramirez (1B), and Jean Segura (SS)
- Borderline: Jeff Bianchi (UTL), Taylor Green (3B), Juan Francisco (1B), Elian Herrera (UTL), Lyle Overbay (1B), Mark Reynolds (1B/3B), and Rickie Weeks (2B)
- Long-shot: Irving Falu (2B), Hector Gomez (SS), Sean Halton (1B), Hunter Morris (1B), Jason Rogers (UTL), and Eugenio Velez (UTL)
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: If healthy, I see the left side of the infield settled much like the catcher spot with Segura at shortstop and Ramirez at third base.  Unfortunately the right side of the infield is anything but settled.  The Brewers want to play Gennett at second but they have a ton of money invested in Weeks.  Thus the Brewers hope Weeks has a huge spring training and another team suffers a serious injury at second base so they can move Weeks for a low-level prospect and some salary relief, but the likelihood of both of those things happening are fairly low so the Brewers will most likely keep Gennett and Weeks on The 25.  If you think second base is unsettled, first based is even worse.  The three front-runners seem to be Francisco, Overbay, and Reynolds.  Overbay and Reynolds might help this season but are not long-term answers at first base while Francisco could be a long-term answer if he figures out some plate discipline and how to play defense.  At some point the Brewers need to see what they have in Morris, which will not happen this year given all the other left-handed hitting first basemen currently ahead of him on the depth chart.  Although I am still a long-term believer in Francisco, I would give Overbay and Reynolds the inside track on making The 25 ahead of Francisco at this point.  With all due respect to Weeks, I hope a change of scenery helps him fulfill the promise that was expected of him the last two season so at this point I would keep Bianchi, Gennett, Herrera, Ramirez, Reynolds and Segura.

Outfielders:
- Guaranteed: Ryan Braun (RF), Khris Davis (LF), and Carlos Gomez (CF)
- Borderline: Caleb Gindl (OF) and Logan Schafer (OF)
- Long-shot: Kentrail Davis (OF), Mitch Haniger (OF), and Kevin Mattison (OF)
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: The Brewers moved Ryan Braun to right field and traded outfielder Nori Aoki to the Kansas City Royals to make way for Khris Davis to start in left field.  Professional baseball players are constantly under tons of pressure to perform.  Given all the changes the Brewers made to get Davis into the starting lineup after only 136 major league at-bats in 56 games in 2013, I almost feel like the Brewers are setting him up to fail.  That doesn't even factor in that Gomez will likely regress from his 8.9 WAR performance last season given that his previous high watermark was 2.3 WAR.  Plus Braun, the unfortunate face of the franchise for the next decade, is returning for a 65-game suspension for getting caught using PED's.  I see the Brewers keeping Schafer as their fourth outfielder unless Gindl has a huge spring training but the more important thing to watch is how the starting outfielders perform to open 2014.

Starting Pitching:
- Guaranteed: Marco Estrada (R), Yovani Gallardo (R), Matt Garza (R), Kyle Lohse (R), and Wily Peralta (R)
- Borderline: None
- Long-shot: None
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: Melvin locked in the starting rotation when he drastically overpaid Garza instead of keeping the 5th spot in the rotation open for a cost-effective competition between guys like Fiers and Thornburg.  Making all five guys locks for The 25 is based on all five starting pitchers staying healthy through spring training.  If that turns out to be true, for how anticlimactic the starting rotation competition will be, the fight for the seven spots in the bullpen will be very interesting.

Relief Pitching:
- Guaranteed: Tom Gorzelanny (L), Jim Henderson (R), and Francisco Rodríguez (R)
- Borderline: Zach Duke (L), Mike Fiers (R), Brandon Kintzler (R), Will Smith (L), Tyler Thornburg (R), Wei-Chung Wang (L), and Rob Wooten (R)
- Long-shot: Michael Blazek (R), Hiram Burgos (R), Jose De La Torre (R), Alfredo Figaro (R), David Goforth (R), Brooks Hall (R), Donovan Hand (R), Johnny Hellweg (R), Dustin Molleken (R), Jimmy Nelson (R), Michael Olmsted (R), Ariel Pena (R), and Kevin Shackelford (R)
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: The Brewers will give Duke, Smith, and Wang every chance to make The 25 for different reasons.  Duke will most likely ask for his release if he does not make The 25, there will be egg on Melvin's face if Smith struggles since he gave up Aoki to get his services, and Wang must be offered back to the Pittsburgh Pirates if he doesn't make The 25.  I would personally keep Duke, Gorzelanny, Henderson, Kintzler, Rodriguez, Smith, and Wooten.  That would allow Thornburg to keep his arm stretched out as the ace of the starting rotation of their minor league AAA affiliate.

Opening Day Lineup:
1. Carlos Gomez (CF)
2. Jean Segura (SS)
3. Ryan Braun (RF)
4. Aramis Ramirez (3B)
5. Mark Reynolds (1B)
6. Jonathan Lucroy (C)
7. Scotter Gennett (2B)
8. Khris Davis (LF)
9. Matt Garza (R)

Starting Rotation:
1. Matt Garza (R)
2. Kyle Lohse (R)
3. Yovani Gallardo (R)
4. Wily Peralta (R)
5. Marco Estrada (R)

Closer:
1. Jim Henderson (R)
2. Francisco Rodríguez (R)

If Melvin makes any more big signings or trades, check back for full coverage in this space.  If Melvin proceeds with the status quo throughout spring training, make sure to check back on opening day for my initial The 25 post.

Building The 25 - K-Rod Returns, Again

In Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin's annual reconstruction of the bullpen he decided to add Francisco Rodriguez (K-Rod) to The 25 for the third time in the last four years.  K-Rod signed a one-year deal with a $3.25 million base salary and $500,000 in incentives.  Although $3.25 million feels a too rich for a player K-Rod's ability, thankfully the Brewers only inked him to a one-year deal.

For kicks let's trace the relationship between K-Rod and the Brewers.  Melvin originally traded for K-Rod following the 2011 All-Star break to bolster the bullpen for a playoff run.  K-Rod pitched well in 2011 but struggled in 2012, which kept him out of baseball to start the 2013 season.  The Brewers brought K-Rod back last season when their closer spot was in disarray due to John Axford's struggles.  K-Rod performed well, which allowed the Brewers to trade him to the Baltimore Orioles for minor league third-baseman Nick Delmonico.  K-Rod struggled for the Orioles, which is part of the reason he was still available so close to the start of spring training this season.

With K-Rod in the fold, apparently the Brewers are planning to start the season with Jim Henderson as their closer but K-Rod would most likely be the next option if Henderson struggles.  After that the Brewers do not have another viable option at closer, which shows you the lack of depth the Brewers currently have in their bullpen.  Given all the young arms the Brewers have in their farm system that project as middle to end of the rotation starters, Melvin should start looking at whether any of those guys could help in the bullpen over the next few years in preparation for starting down the road.

While I don't love the K-Rod signing, I like it much more than the Garza signing or the Aoki trade.  I presume this is Melvin's last big addition to The 25 before spring training.  If not, check back for full coverage in this space.  If things remain quiet for the next week, make sure to check back on the eve of pitchers and catchers reporting for my traditional spring training preview for the Brewers.

Building The 25 - Brewers drastically overpay Garza

Up until a few days ago the only significant moves Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin made to The 25 were two separate trades. Melvin traded away relief pitcher Burke Badenhop and outfielder Norichika Aoki for what amounted to a couple left-handed pitching lottery tickets in Luis Ortega and Will Myers respectively.  Towards the middle of last week I even discussed how proud I was of Melvin showing fiscal restraint instead of handing out huge free agent contracts this off-season as a peace offering for what the team put their fans through last season.

Well it was all too good to be true.  Late last week reports leaked that the Brewers signed free agent starting pitcher Matt Garza to a four-year, $52 million deal.  The Brewers initially refuted that report via Twitter, which gave me hope that Melvin was rethinking whether to break the first of the five rules I gave him for how to build The 25 for 2014.  Ultimately the Brewers and Garza agreed to a four-year, $50 million deal could end up being a five-year, $67 million deal.  The Brewers ultimately announced the signing at the team's annual fan fest, which was free this year as a peace offering for what the team put their fans through last season.

Before I breakdown the largest contract ever given to a starting pitcher in Brewers franchise history in more depth, I thought I would give a little background on the starting pitching situation for the Brewers before the Garza signing to show why they did not need to overpay yet another free agent starting pitcher.  Going into the off-season, four of the five spots in their starting rotation were set essentially set in stone: Kyle Lohse, Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada.  The fifth spot in the rotation looked like it was going to be a competition between guys currently in the farm system with the strongest candidates being Hiram Burgos, Mike Fiers, Johnny Hellweg, Jimmy Nelson, and Tyler Thornburg.  After the Brewers traded for Smith and signed Zach Duke to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. the Brewers had a ton of legitimate candidates fighting for the final starting spot in the rotation and the long relief role in the bullpen.

With Garza on The 25, if healthy, the starting rotation will be Garza, Lohse, Gallardo, Peralta, and Estrada in some order.  Given that the Brewers are not really in a win-now mode, I would much rather see them go into spring training with all their young guys fighting for the final spot in the rotation.  If one of the five odds on starters gets hurt in spring training, pending some drastic change in the performance in spring training, I would give Thornburg the first chance followed by Fiers, Burgos, Smith, Nelson, Hellweg, and Duke.

The first four years of Garza's deal are fairly straightforward with him earning $12.5 million in each of those years.  The only real quirks of the first four years of the deal is that Garza deferred $2 million each year that is paid annually on December 15th starting in 2018 through 2021.  Besides that, Garza can earn an extra $500,000 each time he starts 30 games or throws 190 innings in a season over the first four years of the deal.  If Garza achieves all of that, it makes the first four years of the deal worth $54 million.  The fifth year of this deal in 2018 is where this deal gets complicated.

According to Cot's on Contracts, Garza has a $13 million vesting option in 2018 if he meets three conditions in the first four years of the deal: starts 110 games, throws at least 115 innings in 2017, and does NOT end the 2017 season on the disabled list.  If Garza does NOT satisfy all three conditions, there are two other potential outcomes.  One, if Garza spends an extended period of time on the disabled list during the first four years of the deal, which is defined as 130 days over 183 day period of time, the Brewers can retain Garza's services for just $1 million in 2018.  Two, if Garza does not spend an extended period of time on the disabled list the Brewers can exercise their team option to retain his services in 2018 for $5 million.

As I discussed when I reviewed the Aoki/Smith trade, a win on the free agent market costs $6 million.  Leaving 2018 aside for now that means Garza will have to produce at least two wins above replacement (WAR) a season to justify his contract from 2014-2017.  Garza put together impressive seasons in 2008 (3.3 WAR) and 2009 (3.5 WAR).  After that, Garza's WAR numbers didn't break two besides 2011 (2.8 WAR). Last season Garza registered 1.4 WAR thanks mostly to pitching well for the Chicago Cubs following a long stint on the disabled list to the start the season.  The Cubs traded Garza to the Texas Rangers but Garza struggled for the Ranger.  Since Garza was traded mid-season last year the one silver lining is that unlike when owner Mark Attanasio signed Lohse to a three-year, $33 million deal last year, the Brewers did not forfeit their first round pick in the 2014 MLB Draft to sign Garza.

Unless Garza finds a legal fountain of youth that can also keep him healthy, the Brewers severely overpaid him each of the first four years of the deal.  Given how injury prone Garza has been throughout his career the only good part of the Garza deal is that the Brewers made the $13 million vesting option for the fifth year contingent on Garza staying healthy throughout the entire deal, which seems highly unlikely given his long injury history.

The Brewers are now paying six players on The 25 at least $10 million in 2014: Lohse ($11 million), right fielder Ryan Braun ($11 million), Gallardo ($11.5 million), second baseman Rickie Weeks ($12 million), Garza ($12.5 million), and third basemen Aramis Ramirez ($16 million).  Luckily Weeks, Ramirez, and possibly Gallaro ($13 million club option with $600,000 buyout) come off the books in 2015 so the Brewers can clean-up their bloated 2014 payroll.

I expect things to be quiet on the personal front until pitchers and catchers report on February 15th but if the Brewers decide to grossly overpay another veteran like they did with the Garza signing, make sure to check back for full coverage in this space.

Building The 25 - Melvin shows fiscal restraint

Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin avoided salary arbitration with right-handed starting pitcher Marco Estrada and first/third baseman Juan Francisco when he signed both to one-year deals essentially guaranteeing each a spot on The 25 for 2014.  Estrada, in his second year of salary arbitration, signed a one-year deal worth $3.3 million.  Francisco, in his first year of salary arbitration, signed a one-year deal worth $1.35 million.  Sure either player could have tried for slightly more money via the arbitration process but that usually only results in a slight bump for players of their stature and it comes at the expense of hearing the club rip apart your resume in the arbitration hearing.

More important than the deal just discussed, Melvin signed a ton of guys throughout the month of January to minor league contracts with an invite to spring training, which are exactly the kind of deals that I encouraged Melvin to sign in my advice to him for how to build The 25 for 2014.  The three most notable names that Melvin signed to the low-risk, potentially high-reward deals are left-handed pitcher Zach Duke, first/third baseman Mark Reynolds, and first baseman Lyle Overbay.

As a rookie Duke posted a 1.81 era and 3.4 wins above replacement (WAR) in just 14 starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2005.  That performance was good enough for Duke to finish fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting that season while current Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks finished tied for sixth.  Duke posted a 4.47 ERA and 2.7 WAR in 34 starts the following year.  Unfortunately following such a promising start to his career, Duke only posted one other season of above 2 WAR, which happened in 2009.  Since then Duke battled injuries and ineffectiveness as he played for a number of teams.  There is still a chance that Duke can turn things around given that he does not turn 31 till after the start of the 2014 season, which is why I am fine with Melvin taking a flyer on Duke.

After losing Corey Hart to the Seattle Mariners, the Brewers were left with Juan Francisco, Sean Halton, and Hunter Morris fighting for the starting spot at first base.  If I were in charge, I would give Morris every chance to win the starting job at first base even though he struggled a bit moving from AA to AAA last season.  Instead of giving Morris a chance, it looks like the Brewers are going to give a pair a guys that played first based for the New York Yankees last season in Reynolds and Overbay every chance to make The 25 this season.

Reynolds posted some impressive offensive WAR numbers early in his career but those came with severe strikeouts problems and defensive limitations that made him a little more than above average major leaguer despite his impressive offensive numbers.  The upshot with Reynolds is that much like Duke, he is not going to turn 31 until after the start of the 2014 season so I like that low-risk (one-year, $2 million deal with $500,00 in incentives) signing as well.

The Brewers originally added Overbay to The 25 along with Chris Capuano, Craig Counsell, Chad Moeller, Jorge De La Rosa and Junior Spivey in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks for Shane Nance, Richie Sexson, and Noochie Varner.  After two successful offensive campaigns with the Brewers in 2005 and 2006, the Brewers traded Overbay along with Ty Taubenheim to the Toronto Blue Jays for Dave Bush, Gabe Gross and Zach Jackson.  I can't say this often but the Brewers went two-for-two in their Overbay related trades.

Ultimately I think Reynolds has the best shot to make The 25 even though the Brewers are more familiar with Overbay because teams rarely sign guys like Reynolds unless they are going to give them every chance to make The 25.  The beauty of signing veterans to minor league contracts with an invite to spring training instead of splashing big money on free agents is that if they struggle in spring training, the Brewers can walkaway with almost zero financial ramifications.  If a couple of the guys perform well in spring training, the Brewers bought themselves inexpensive veterans for 2014, which is the fiscally prudent move given that 2014 looks like it will be a transition year anyhow.

Building The 25 - Brewers trade Aoki to Royals for Smith

Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin violated one of the five general rules that I gave him for how to approach this off-season when he traded starting right fielder Norichika Aoki to the Kansas City Royals for left-handed pitcher Will Smith.  Let's table the fact that Aoki became a huge fan favorite in just two years in Milwaukee and evaluate the trade as objectively as possible.

Despite Aoki being 31 and Smith only being 24, they both only have two years of MLB experience because Aoki played professionally in Japan from 2004-11.  Over the last two years Aoki put up seasons of 3.5 (2012) and 3.0 (2013) wins above replacement (WAR). After starting 16 games and throwing 89.2 innings for the Royals in 2012, Smith worked almost exclusively out of the bullpen in 2013 logging just 33.1 innings. That means over the last two years Smith put up 0.0 WAR, which means Smith was nothing better than a borderline major league baseball player while Aoki added 6.5 wins over that same time frame.

According to Jonah Keri's Baseball Dictionary for Grantland.com, a win on the open market costs $6 million, which made Aoki a steal for the Brewers the last two years since he produced 6.5 wins but only cost them $7.25 million ($2.5 million posting fee and $4.75 million in salary and performance bonuses).  Yes, there is a chance that Aoki will regress in 2014 since he turns 32 before the start of the season but the Brewers only owed him a little less than $2 million.  I know that Aoki was a seasoned professional when he joined the Brewers in 2012 while Smith was a young, developing left-handed but two years later it does not look like Smith has improved very much.

Sure Aoki is set to become a free agent after 2014 while Smith is not able to become a free agent until 2020 but my guess is that the Brewers could have extended Aoki through 2015 or 2016 for an average of $2.5 million a year.  I am sure part of the reason the Brewers made the trade was that they wanted to give promising young outfielder Khris Davis a chance to start in 2014 but I am still not sure that justified trading Aoki for what amounts to a glorified lottery ticket.  There was going to be a market for Aoki all the way up to the trade deadline at the end of July so if Davis proved he was worthy of starting over Aoki in 2014, the Brewers could have moved Aoki at some point before the trade deadline for a player like Smith.  If Davis struggled, the Brewers could have kept Aoki at the trade deadline if they were in playoff contention.

Although I didn't like the Aoki for Smith deal because the Brewers traded a known commodity for what amounts to an enticing lottery ticket, I am not always against the Brewers making a trade for a lottery ticket.  Earlier this off-season Melvin traded right-handed reliever Burke Badenhop to the Boston Red Sox for left-handed minor leaguer Luis Ortega.  I didn't mind that deal since last season Badenhop was -0.3 wins above replacement while Ortega is a 20-year-older that had success in the lowest level of the minor leagues despite his slight build 5'10" and 155 lbs.  There are tons of Bradenhops (below average relief pitchers) and Ortegas (young, left-handed pitcher) so I would rather role the dice on Ortega at the expense of Badenhop because Ortega's potentially higher ceiling.

Back to the Aoki/Smith deal for my final thoughts.  Best case scenario Davis picks up in 2014 where he left off in 2013 and the Brewers bought low on a left-handed relief pitcher in Smith for 2014 that they can turn into a starter down the road.  Worst case scenario, Davis and Smith struggle while Aoki continues to be Aoki.  My best guess is that Davis is a slightly above average outfielder while Smith serves as a middle reliever in 2014, which is why I do not think Smith was enough for Melvin to get in return for Aoki.

Building The 25 - Advice for Doug Melvin heading into 2014

Expectations were high for the Milwaukee Brewers going into 2013 but the season ended up being the most trying season in the last decade.  The 65-game suspension of left fielder Ryan Braun, the face of the franchise, exacerbated an already hopeless season.  I have to admit that even before Braun's suspension, my interest in following the team on a daily basis waned.  I did my best to keep up but the product that Brewers general manager Doug Melvin put on the field was less than stellar despite having huge seasons from shortstop Jean Segura and center fielder Carlos Gomez.  All of that meant I couldn't wait for the 2013 World Series to finish so that we can look towards 2014.

The 2013 World Series pitted the Boston Red Sox against the St. Louis Cardinals.  Going into the 2013 World Series, each team won two World Series titles in the last nine years.  I know New England sports fans have become downright intolerable given that they've won a championship in each of the four major sports in the last decade but at least the Red Sox are not a divisional opponent like the Cardinals.  From a Cheesehead perspective, if the Cardinals would have won the 2013 World Series, it would have been their third World Series in eight years.  The Brewers have only made the playoffs twice over that time-frame without even coming close to winning a World Series so that meant I actually wanted to see the Red Sox win their third World Series title in the last decade.

Thankfully the Red Sox defeated the Cardinals in six games to win the 2013 World Series.  I am sure you will read glowing takes on the 2013 World Series but I was quite underwhelmed with the play on the field even though all the games besides the first and last of the series were close.  That may sound like sour grapes given what a nightmare last season was for the Brewers or it may be that my interest in baseball in general is decreasing.  Either way, the one thing I know for sure is that with the 2013 World Series in the books, we can finally look towards the 2014 season.

Here are five general rules for how Melvin should approach the off-season to build The 25 for 2014.  When Melvin starts making moves, I will review those decisions through the lenses of my five general rules.  Without further adu, here are my five general rules for Melvin.

#1) Do NOT hand out any long-term, expensive contracts this off-seasons.  Fan always clamor for general managers to sign the biggest free agents thinking that will be a long-term solution. Unfortunately in baseball, given that players are under team control for seven major league seasons, most free agents are already in decline when they are available for the other 29 MLB teams to sign.  Before the start of last season Brewers owner Mark Attanasio apparently went behind Melvin's back to sign former Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Lohse to a three-year, $33 million contract that also cost the Brewers their first round pick in the 2013 MLB Draft.  Although the Lohse signing will most likely not turn out as bad as the four-year, $42 million contract the Brewers gave former Cardinals starting pitcher Jeff Suppan, both show how much the Brewers have to overpay in the free agent market for starting pitchers on the decline.  Even when the Brewers proactively lock in players long-term like they did with Braun twice, having those guaranteed deals on the books are always a risk too.  The way MLB's revenue structure is so dependent on local revenue, small market teams like the Brewers can barely afford expensive, long-term deals.  When those deals go bad like they did in Suppan's case, it hampers the franchise for a number of seasons, which is why they are not worth the risk for the Brewers.

#2) Give young players every chance to start, within reason.  As mentioned above, there are varying reports on whether Attansio signed Lohse without consulting Melvin.  Even if that is not true, Attanasio clearly did not believe in the starting pitchers that Melvin assembled going into 2013.  In 2014 the Brewers need to see if Mike Fiers, Wily Peralta or Tyler Thornburg can finally give the Brewers a legitimate starting pitcher out of their farm system for the first time since Yovanni Gallardo.  In terms of positional players, the Brewers are high on outfielder Khris Davis, second baseman Scooter Gennett, and shortstop Jean Segura.  Of all the players just discussed, after just one season, Segura looks like a superstar in the making.  The Brewers need to approach Segura soon about an extension because he is about to price himself out of any kind of Evan Longoria-eque six-year, $17.5 million contract that contained three expensive club options at the end of the six-year deal ($7.5 million in 2014 with $3 million buyout, $11 million in 2015, and 11.5 million in 2016).  If that's the case, the Brewers might as well go year-to-yea with Segura knowing he will leave a free agent following the 2018 season.

#3) Hoard all cheap contracts.  The Brewers have a couple of great contracts with right fielder Norichika Aoki signed to a two-year, $2.5 million contract with a club option for 2014 and catcher Jonathan Lucroy signed to five-year, $11 million through 2016 with a club option for 2017.  The Brewers picked up what turned out to be a little less than $2 million option (thanks to some performance bonuses) on Aoki for 2014.  That gives the Brewers a leadoff hitter and starting right fielder on the cheap.  Although the Brewers like Davis and Aoki is in his early 30's, they should approach Aoki about signing a two or three year contract extension that averages around $2 million a season since he will be a free agent after 2014.  In my previous general rule I said to give young players every chance to start so even if Davis is effective in the outfield in 2014, the Brewers could use Aoki as a 4th outfielder for the next couples seasons if they pay him $2 million or less a year.  Moving to Lucroy, the Brewers have him under control for a manageable number though at least 2016.  Even if injuries prevent Lucroy from catching through 2016, for how much they are paying him, they could move him to first base while having him serve as a backup catcher.

#4) Sign cheap, short-term deals to reload the bullpen. Almost every season Melvin remakes the bullpen with a combination of resurrecting careers of players that were left for dead like John Axford or signing somewhat cost-effective free agents like left-hander Tom Gorzelanny (two-years, $5.7 million).  Part of why Melvin has to remake the bullpen is that the lack of quality starting pitching taxes the bullpen so by the end of the season, the bullpen arms are maxed out.  I know it is fairly simplistic to say a bad starting rotation leads to a bad bullpen but it is true, which is why the Brewers need to see if they can actually build a starting rotation through their farm system to help them from burning out and rebuilding their bullpen on an annual basis.

#5) If you decide to ignore #1, at least sign players to front-end loaded deals. The Brewers signed third-baseman Aramis Ramirez to a three-year, $36 million contract.  As a part of that deal Ramirez earned $6 million in 2012, $10 million in 2013, and is scheduled to earn $16 million in 2014 with $6 million of his 2014 compensation deferred into the future.  Ramirez and the Brewers hold an expensive mutual option with a $4 million buyout for 2015.  Sadly, Ramirez doesn't have the worst contract on the books for next season since often injured second basemen Rickie Weeks is hopefully finishing the four-year, $38.5 million deal he signed in February of 2011.  Weeks earned $3.5 million in 2011, $10 million in 2012, $10 million in 2013, and is scheduled to earn $11 million in 2014.  There is an $11.5 million vesting option for 2015 with a $1 million buyout that the Brewers will make sure does not vest.  That means the Brewers will pay Ramirez and Weeks $5 million in 2015 to play elsewhere.  I understand the time value of money but that runs completely contrary to the value players as they age.  Although I still think baseball players will find a way to skirt MLB's testing and use performance enhancing drugs, long gone are the days of players in their mid-30's having "career" years.  The Brewers need to stop getting stuck on the back end of horrible contracts like they are right now with Ramirez and Weeks.  If those deals were front-end loaded, they could flip either of those guys to an American League team looking for a designated hitter in the midst of a playoff run for a pretty good minor league prospect.  Instead the Brewers are mostly stuck with both guys unless they eat almost the entire contract in a trade that nets them a low-level minor league prospect.

Make sure to check back as the off-season unfolds for my full thoughts on each move made by Attanasio and/or Melvin viewed through the prism of the five general rules provided above.

2013 MLB Trade Deadline Advice for Doug Melvin

For the last four years at the NBA Trade Deadline I gave very specific advice to Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond for how to improve the roster (2010, 2011, 2012, & 2013).  This is my first year doing the same thing for Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline.  Here is my five-point-plan for how Melvin should approach the 2013 MLB Trade Deadline:

#1) Move at least one of the three "closers" for prospects.  I say "closers" because John Axford was supposed to be the closer for the Brewers this season but struggled to start the season, which opened the door for Jim Henderson and K-Rod.  When you factor in age and contract, I would much rather trade K-Rod or Axford than Henderson but I totally support the Brewers moving any of the three for future assets.

#2) Hold onto starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo unless offered a Greinke-esque return.  The Brewers have Gallardo under control through 2015.  Sure Gallardo's contract jumps from $7.75 million to $11.25 million next season and has a $13 million ($0.6 million buyout) club option for 2015 but that also means the Brewers could have a borderline ace under control through 2015.  Gallardo has pitched for the Brewers so long that people forget he is still only 27-years old, which means Gallardo still has a decade left in his career.  The velocity on Gallardo's fastball has decreased over the last few seasons and to make matters worse he was arrested earlier this season for driving under the influence of alcohol but he is still a low-end ace so the Brewers should keep strongly consider keeping Gallardo.

#3) Hold onto any and all prospects.  The Brewers have as much of a chance of making the playoffs this year as I do of leveraging the advice I dispense on this blog into becoming the next general manager of one of the Cheesehead professional sports franchises.  The Brewers need to continue to build for the future instead of making short-term trades with negative long-term consequences.

#4) Do not trade catcher Jonathan Lucroy, starting pitcher Kyle Lohse, shortstop Jean Segura, right fielder Norichika Aoki, center fielder Carlos Gomez, and left fielder Ryan Braun.  The Brewers have Lucroy, Lohse, Segura, and Aoki on team friendly deals through at least 2014 so that makes them virtually untouchable in my book.  The Brewers have larger financial commitments to Gomez and Braun but with Gomez finally fulfilling the promise that made him the centerpiece of the Johan Santana trade and PED stink hanging over Braun there is no way the Brewers would get equal value for either player at this point.  Lohse and Aoki are the most likely of the six to get traded but I would resist overtures even for them unless the Brewers get a Godfather offer.

#5) Entertain offers for Aramis Ramirez and Rickie Weeks as long as you don't have to eat more than $5 million of either of their contracts.  I know this feels like selling low on Ramirez since he is having a disappointing season this year compared to last year and is currently on the DL but he is owed $16 million next season, which is about $10 million too much.  Plus moving Ramirez will allow the Brewers to see whether Juan Francisco is a long-term answer at third base.  Weeks is on the books for $10 million this seasons, $11 million for next season, and has a $11.5 million vesting option (if healthy at end of 2014 season and has 600 PAs in 2014 or 1,200 PAs in 2013-14) for 2015.  Despite hitting well going into the All-Star break, Weeks is still a Jeff Suppan-esque lightning rod for Brewers fans. Much like Ramirez, the Brewers are on the hook for way too much money for Weeks.  The payroll relief alone of trading either Ramirez or Weeks without assuming their entire contract would make the 2013 MLB Trade Deadline a success for the Brewers.

I wish I knew more minor league players outside of the Brewers' farm system so that I could give Melvin specific players to target but unfortunately I don't at this point.  I promise in next year's incarnation of this column I will give Melvin or the new general manger of the Brewers specific minor league players to target.  Whether Melvin follows my blueprint or charts his own path, if Melvin makes any moves, check back for my full breakdown.

I Went There - Ryan Braun Faces More PED Related Scrutiny

Ben, Alex, Jason, & Cheesehead Sports Nut (left to right).

I finally got to see the 2013 Milwaukee Brewers play for the first time in-person last night at Miller Park.  My cousin Jason was in from Colorado so I took the train up to Milwaukee from Chicago to attend the game with Mama Cheese, Papa Cheese, and part of the extended Bojar Family (Jason, Jim, Marykay, Alex, Eve, Ben, and Becky).

The Brewers were outmatched most of the night trailing by three runs heading into the bottom of the 8th inning but tied the score thanks in large part to shortstop Jean Segura's triple that plated Rickie Weeks and Norichika Aoki.  The Brewers won in the 10th inning thanks to an RBI single by Yuniesky Betancourt that plated Carlos Gomez.  In a Miller Park first for me, the post-game interview was conducted in Spanish with the interviewer summarizing Betancourt's answers in English before he got the celebratory shaving cream pie-in-the-face.

I took a quick look at my Twitter feed on the ride back to the Parental Cheese Palace and saw the ESPN report that Major League Baseball is going after Ryan Braun and everyone else mentioned in the Biogenesis saga.  Before I read the ESPN report, I planned on writing a post about how it was time for teams to buck conventional baseball wisdom (e.g. using your closer only for a "save" situation), about the recent roster moves by general manager Doug Melvin (traded minor league pitcher Thomas Keeling for infielder Juan Francisco, called up second baseman Scooter Gennett from the minors, sent Mike Fiers back down to the minors, and released infielder Alex Gonzalez), and how despite having the worst record in the National League the Brewers still look a little too talented offensively despite their lack of quality pitching to give up on 2013 already.  All of sudden those topics seems trivial with the specter that Ryan Braun, the face of the franchise, might be suspended for 100 games for the use of performance enhancing drugs.

Although Braun escaped suspension once before when Shyam Das cast the deciding vote to overturn his 50-game suspension for testing positive for PED's, it enraged MLB because they thought Braun's suspension should have been upheld.  Braun's name surfaced on documents along with other high profile MLB players suspected of using PED's earlier this year.  According to Braun, his legal team retained Biogenesis owner Tony Bosch's "consulting services" as a part of appealing his positive test results for the use of PED's.  That excuse seems flimsy at best but is probably the best possible spin his public relations team could muster.  This was just the in that MLB wanted to make an example of Braun and the other MLB players associated with the Biogenesis documents.

Even if MLB suspends Braun and others MLB player associated with Biogenesis, they will always have stink of PED's hanging over their sport so I am not sure that making an example of these guys achieves MLB's goal.  NFL players routinely get suspended for the use of PED's but that does not seem to diminish their accomplishments presumably because football is such a brutal sport.  Reports are that MLB is seeking to suspend anyone associated with Biogenesis documents for 100 games: 50 games for purchasing PED's and 50 games for lying to MLB.

I am not sure what MLB is trying to accomplish with these suspensions.  Keep in mind that MLB filed a lawsuit in March against Bosch and a handful of his Biogenesis business associates for "interfering with baseball contracts" under the legal theory of tortious interference presumably to try to squeeze as much information out of them as possible to mount a case against the players mentioned in the various Biogenesis documents obtained by media outlets.

MLB recently deposed Dr. Daniel Carpman, an anti-aging specialist that has been  identified in some Biogenesis documents.  Unfortunately the details of Dr. Carpman's deposition have not become public.  That means that so far only Bosch and Dr. Carpman are cooperating while other known associates of Bosch such as Carlos Acevedo and Juan Carlos Nunez (a registered MLB agents that apparently put Bosch in touch with a number of the MLB players named in the investigation) have been resistant to cooperate with MLB's investigation of Biogenesis.

I assume that Bosch is going to tell MLB what they want to hear with respect to the use of PED's by the players in question, especially because MLB has agreed to cover Bosch's legal fees if the government brings a case against Bosch.  That is obviously huge for Bosch because he is reportedly broke so getting his future legal bills covered might be reason enough to cooperate with MLB.  Even if Bosch provides documentation (e.g. canceled checks, text messages, FedEx shipment information, etc.), I would hope that MLB gets more authentication of the documents than just Bosch's word before they start suspending players.

This is not the first time that baseball used shady individuals to take down some of the biggest names in the sport.  In the Pete Rose gambling investigation they essentially traded the testimony of felon Ron Peters for a letter to a judge requesting leniency for Peters' punishment.  In the Roger Clemens PED investigation they relied on Brian McNamee and helped broker a deal with the government to get McNamee immunity from federal prosecution.

The biggest problem for Braun with the most recent revelations is that players can be suspended under the Joint Drug Agreement without ever actually testing positive for PED's.  MLB just needs to show the purchase, receipt, or use of performance enhancing drugs to obtain a suspension.  That said, to suspend Braun based on the flimsy documents and testimony of Bosch seems asinine but you never know given how salty they were about Braun pulling the Reverse Al Capone.

The outcome of this investigation will have huge financial ramifications on the Brewers and Braun because after this season the Brewers have Braun under contract for at least seven (possibly eight) more years for at least $121 million and possibly $132 million ($12 million in 2014, $14 million in 2015, $19 million in 2016, $19 million in 2017, $19 million in 2018, $18 million in 2019, $16 million in 2020, and $15 million mutual option with a $4 million buyout in 2021).  If Braun is suspended because of his association with Bosch and Biogenesis, as crazy as it sounds, the Brewers might have to look into voiding Braun's contract or trading him for pennies on the dollar because any of his accomplishments will come with a huge asterisk.

Greinke traded to the Angels

The wait is over, Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin finally traded Zack Greinke.  I say finally because with how much the Brewers struggled this year it was not if but when Greinke would be traded.

There are a number of stats driven blogs that will break down how well the players the Brewers acquired from the Angels performed in the minor leagues.  I am more interested in comparing what the Brewers gave up to acquire Greinke with what the Brewers just got for Greinke.

Two years ago the Brewers acquired Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt (SS) for Lorenzo Cain (CF, 6'2), Alcides Escobar (SS, 6'1"), Jake Odorizzi (RHP, 6'2"), and Jeremey Jeffress (RHP, 6'1").

Melvin traded Greinke to the Los Angeles Angels for three high-level minor league prospects: Jean Segura (SS, 5'10"), John Hellweg (RHP, 6'9"), and Ariel Pena (RHP, 6'6").

Escobar is a better defensive shortstop than Segura (top rated Angels' prospect behind Mike Trout going into 2012) but Segura possesses a better upside offensively over Escobar so let's call that a wash.

Odorizzi and Jeffress projected about as good as Hellweg (4th rated Angels' prospect going into 2012) and Pena (9th rated Angels' prospect going into 2012) project currently so let's call that a wash as well, especially when you consider that Jeffress is one positive drug test from never playing major league baseball again.

That leaves Cain v. Betancourt for one season and Greinke for 49 starts.  With all due respect to Cain's potential, the Brewers would not have made the playoffs last season without Greinke so by the Allen Brown transitive property that makes the Brewers a winner.

Before we start anointing Melvin executive of the year, let's not forget that Greinke is a bona fide ace while the three players the Brewers got in return are prospects aka lottery tickets.

Earlier today I said the Brewers should keep Zack Greinke to give fans a reason to buy tickets or tune in every fifth day to see Greinke pitch.  Furthermore, I thought the Brewers should hold onto Greinke mostly because they would get a compensatory pick after the first round in the 2013 MLB Draft if they lost Greinke to free agency.

To quote the late, great Jerry Orbach: when I'm wrong, I say I'm wrong.  I thought there was no way that the Brewers could get three top prospects for that might only amount to a two-month rental of Zack Greinke. Furthermore, according to the new CBA if the Angels lose Greinke to free agency this off-season, they get no draft pick compensation.

As I said above, a prospect is a lottery ticket but for the first time in my lifetime the Brewers actually have a number of lottery tickets (Tyler Thornburg, Wily Peralta, John Hellweg, Ariel Pena, Taylor Jungmann, Jimmy Nelson, and Jed Bradley) that look like they might actually pay off by pitching consistently in the big leagues in 2013 or 2014.  Add in that Segura should be the starting shortstop for the Brewers in 2013 at the latest and the Brewers have a ton of young, quality players.

The Brewers may never have a pitcher quite like the quirky Greinke ever again.  I will never forget Greinke saying he thought the Steelers would beat the Packers a week before Super Bowl XLV at Brewers On Deck in 2011, which was his first public appearance as a Milwaukee Brewer.

All of Greinke's quirks aside, much like C.C. Sabathia, Greinke will go down as one of the best "comet" pitchers in Milwaukee Brewers franchise history.  Here's hoping that sooner rather than later the Brewers get to cash all three of the lottery tickets they acquired today for Greinke.

2012 Milwaukee Brewers Initial Player Rankings

After winning the N.L. Central in 2011 most of the national media is picking the Brewers to finish no higher than 3rd in the N.L. Central in 2012 thanks in large part to losing Prince Fielder to the Detroit.

The 2012 Milwaukee Brewers have 162 chances to prove those national pundits wrong. If they do, it will be thanks in large part to the 25 guys that made the opening day roster for the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers. Just like I did last year, here are my initial rankings of the Milwaukee Brewers opening day roster:

#25) Travis Ishikawa (1B/OF): Tough to see utility man Brooks Conrad miss out on the final roster spot to Ishikawa, especially since Conrad is a switch hitter while Ishikawa is just another left-handed bat on the bench at this point.

#24) Cesar Izturis (SS): I don't usually put too much stock in spring training numbers but with how bad Izturis played in spring training it is clear that absent suffering a serious injury Izturis had a guaranteed roster spot at the start of spring training. That's a ton of faith to put in a guy in his early 30's that missed most of 2011 with various injuries.

#23) Tim Dillard (RHP): After getting the Carlos Villanueva treatment (being shuffled between the bullpen and starting rotation based on need) the last few years, Dillard looked like a lost pitcher. In 2010 the now departed pitching coach Rick Peterson suggested that Dillard try a sidearm delivery. That's the best advice Dillard ever got because just a few years later Dillard (out of minor league options) earned his roster spot using his sidearm approach (posted a sub-3 ERA in spring training).

#22) George Kottaras (C): Although I am an unabashed fan of Martin Maldando thanks mostly to his barber skills, it makes baseball sense to keep Kottaras instead of Maldanado as the back-up catcher.

#21) Kameron Loe (RHP): Hard to say whether Loe failed to live up to expectations or got Dusty Bakered the last few years by Macha and Roenicke. If you don't understand the Baker reference, read any article about Mark Prior's injury issues. The Brewers have their 7th (Veras), 8th (K-Rod), and 9th (Axford) inning options set heading into 2012 so Loe has a chance for a breakout year because the Brewers have a ton of quality relievers and expectations are low (no pun intended) for Loe in 2012.

#20) Manny Parra (LHP): Speaking of low expectations, after an injury riddled 2011 season the fact that Parra is out of minor league options basically forced the Brewers to keep Parra over fellow lefty reliever Zach Braddock because Braddock still has minor league options. Once the regular season starts Parra will have to actually perform well because his injury history, lack of minor league options, and shaky performances even when healthy makes Parra a prime candidate to get cut in 2012.

#19) Norichika Aoki (OF): The former member of the Yakult Swallows of Japan's Central League is a three time batting champ and six time Gold Glove winner over eight seasons. Aoki looked lost at the plate at the start of spring training but after what is now being deemed a magical meeting with manager Ron Roenicke, Aoki turned things around at the plate by the end of spring training. Aoki ended up hitting just below .300 in spring training to help the Brewers feel more comfortable about bidding $2.5 million for the right to sign Aoki to what ended up being a two-year, $2.25 million contract with a $1.5 million club option ($.25 million buyout) for 2014.

#18) Jose Veras (RHP): The Brewers acquired Veras from the Pittsburgh Pirates for the under achieving Casey McGehee. I know McGehee looked lost at the end of 2011 but I still would rather platoon McGehee with Green instead of signing Ramirez. Since the Brewers made the trade, let's deal with Veras. Most avid Brewers fans know that Hawkins and Saito were the 7th inning options for the Brewers last year. Since both guys are pitching elsewhere in 2012, the Brewers are looking for Veras to be the 7th inning guy this year.

#17) Carlos Gomez (CF): The guy that was essentially the centerpiece of what the Twins acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade looks like just another guy with speeds. Luckily for Gomez the Brewers plan to be aggressive on the base-paths this year so Gomez's speed will be utilized to the fullest extent.

#16) Marco Estrada (RHP): Held up fairly well last year despite shifting between the starting rotation and long-relief. Since 3/5ths of the 2012 starting rotation (Greinke, Marcum, & Wolf) can be free agents after this season, Estrada looks like a prime candidate to move into the starting rotation in 2013.

#15) Mat Gamel (1B): Although Gamel struggled defensively at 3rd base it would be downright shocking if Gamel isn't a better defender at 1st base than Price Fielder. Keep in mind that Fielder lead the National League in errors with 15 last year. Plus Gamel will have much more range than the stout and short Fielder. Defensive improvements is the good news, the bad news is that Gamel is a shell of Fielder offensively. Fortunately if Gamel can play better defensively there might be a smaller drop-off at first than is currently expected.

#14) Shaun Marcum (RHP): The regular season road warrior of starting pitching last year (lead the league with a 2.21 ERA) absolutely collapsed in the playoffs. Marcum decided to tweak his delivery in the off-season and predictably struggled with injuries throughout spring training. I will see Marcum pitch in-person with Cheesehead Chick, UP, & Sam tomorrow night against the Cubs at Wrigley Field so hopefully Marcum picks up where he left off in the regular season as opposed to the post-season.

#13) Alex Gonzalez (SS): The Brewers had a .982 fielding percentage last year, which seems good, but they only finished 22nd out of 30 teams. Yuniesky Betancourt had the 3rd most errors at shortstop with 21 errors but much like Braun, Betancourt is so limited defensively that if he could get to more balls his error total would be even higher. The Brewers signed Gonzalez almost entirely for his glove but after he hit close to .500 in spring training, expectation are mounting for Gonzalez not only defensively but offensively as well.

#12) Chris Narveson (LHP): Performed great in 2011 and might be the best 5th starter of my lifetime following the Milwaukee Brewers. At least some of Narveson's success has to do with the fact that he faces mostly 5th starters though so its hard to tell whether Narveson could ever be a middle of the rotation guy.

#11) Francisco Rodriguez (RHP): Posted a 1.86 ERA in 31 games after joining the Brewers in a shock trade from the New York Mets. K-Rod thought that impressive performance for the Brewers last year would net him a closer job this off-season. Obviously it didn't so K-Rod came back to the Brewers as possibly the most expensive set-up guy in baseball despite voicing displeasure with that role towards the end of last season.

#10) Nyjer Morgan (CF): Other guys that remind me of Morgan are Milton Bradley, Stephen Jackson, and Metta World Peace. When things are going good guys like Bradley, Jackson, World Peace, and Morgan seem like great teammates. Once the losing streak hits though watch out, because all of the guys just mentioned turn into locker room cancers. Hopefully the Brewers challenge for the division title in 2012 but if they struggle, Morgan will turn into a locker room cancer.

#9) Randy Wolf (LHP): The rich-man's A.J. Hawk of the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers bears a striking resemblance to former Brewer Geoff Jenkins. This post is getting long so let's keep moving.

#8) Aramis Ramirez (3B): When Casey McGehee was Ramirez's backup the Chicago Cubs tried to pass McGehee through waivers but the Brewers scooped up McGehee. As late as opening day last year I thought McGehee was the long-term answer at 3rd base but after an extended slump at the plate it became apparent that McGehee is a below average defender and a streaky hitter at best. Instead of simply promoting Taylor Green the Brewers woefully overpaid for Ramirez who is a below average defender (like McGehee) but is a much better contact hitter (unlike McGehee). Ian Stewart is currently playing 3rd base for the Cubs this year so if history is out guide he better get ready to start at 3rd base for the 2015 Milwaukee Brewers.

#7) Jonathan Lucroy (C): My buddy Sug's nephew is a huge Lucroy fan. In fact he likes Lucroy so much that he dislikes Wolf because Kottaras was Wolf's person catcher. Something tells me the Jonathan Lucroy Fan Club is fairly empty but after signing a very club friendly contract I am guessing Sug's nephew will have some competition for President of the Jonathan Lucroy Fan Club.

#6) Corey Hart (RF/1B): After plodding through a second consecutive injury riddle spring training the Brewers are taking a leap of faith that Hart can stay healthy and thrive in the 5th spot in the line-up hitting behind Ramirez instead of Fielder. It may sound overly simplistic but if Hart struggles in the five hole there will be a big negative waterfall effect felt throughout the entire line-up.

#5) John Axford (RHP): It's going to be hard for Axford to best his 2011 performance after converting 46 saves of his 48 save opportunities. Odds are that Axford regresses slightly but even if Axford converts 90% of his save opportunities he will give the Brewers a good chance to challenge for the N.L. Central title again.

#4) Rickie Weeks (2B): Even after missing a month and a half of the 2011 season Weeks tied for the most errors of any 2nd baseman in the National League. Normally Weeks covers up his defensive limitations with his offensive prowess but Weeks struggled at the plate when he returned from injury in 2011. Hopefully Weeks can return to the healthy version of himself in 2012.

#3) Yovani Gallardo (RHP): In 2011 Gallardo posted his third consecutive season with 200-strikeouts, which is for the first time any pitcher did that in franchise history. Thanks in large part to those strikeouts, Gallardo notched a career best 17 wins and 3.52 ERA in 2011. As crazy as it sounds, I expect Gallardo to improve in 2012. Although FIP (fielding independent pitching) is a much better indicator of performance, wins is still how most fans measure starting pitchers so to give a prediction everyone can appreciate, I expect Gallardo to post 20 wins in 2012 for the first time in his career.

#2) Zack Greinke (RHP): Although Gallardo was the opening day starter, Greinke (and his quirky personality) is the best starting pitcher on the roster according to almost any statistical measure.

#1) Ryan Braun (LF): After pulling the Reverse Al Capone, Braun still refuses to tell the whole story about his "failed" drug test. Unless Braun shares the whole story that unearths some nuggets that have not become public knowledge if I had to bet my life I would say Braun used some form of performance enhancing drugs last season.

I hope you enjoyed the wall-to-wall Milwaukee Brewers coverage throughout the last week. Check back tomorrow for my quick thoughts on seeing the Brewers in person at Wrigley Field. Check back throughout the upcoming weeks for other Cheesehead sports coverage.


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2012 Milwaukee Brewers - Most Overpaid and Most Underpaid

Welcome to you second annual overpaid/underpaid post. Milwaukee Brewers majority owner Mark Attanasio has consistently increased payroll since buying the team in 2005. In less than 10 years Attanasio has increased payroll from roughly $27 million in 2004 to over $100 million for the first time in franchise history in 2012. Keep in mind the Brewers will eclipse $100 million in payroll as Prince Fielder and his $15.5 million salary from 2011 comes off the books since Fielder signed a monster contract with the Detroit Tigers. As you can imagine, a fair amount of guys from 2011 made the list this season. Here is my take on the most overpaid and underpaid players on the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers opening day roster:

Overpaid:
Honorable Mention: Shaun Marcum (RHP, $7.725 million) and Cesar Izturis (SS, $875,000)

#5) Aramis Ramirez (3B, $6 million): Last year Ramirez had an uptick in his performance at the plate hitting .306 with 26 home runs and 93 RBI (flawed stat) in a contract year so 2012 has regression written all over it. It's not so much the $6 million that Ramirez will earn in 2012, its the fact that the Brewers have a more than competent option in Triple-A in Taylor Green that would only cost them $500,000 in 2012. Add in that the Brewers signed Ramirez to a back-end loaded three-year, $36 million contract and unless Ramirez gets traded he will be on this list through 2014.

#4) Corey Hart (RF, $9 million): The Brewers have a couple impressive minor league outfield prospects (Caleb Gindl and Logan Schafer) that are currently blocked at the major league level by Hart. I would much rather pay Gindl $500,000 than Hart $9 million but that doesn't sell tickets.

#3) Randy Wolf (LHP, $9.5 million): When you fail to draft quality starting pitchers you are forced to overpay for middle of the rotation starting pitchers in free agency like the Brewers did with Wolf. Thanks to some decent drafts the last few seasons the Brewers finally have a bunch of potential starting pitchers at all levels of their minor league system (Jed Bradley, Taylor Jungmann, Wily Peralta, Cody Scarpetta, and Tyler Thornburg) that project as potential major league starting pitchers. The Brewers hold a $10 million option on Wolf for 2013 with a $1.5 million buyout. The progress of some of their minor league pitchers will go a long way towards determining if the Brewers pick-up Wolf's option. Hopefully if those guys continue to develop the Brewers might not have to overpay for guys like Wolf in the future.

#2) Rickie Weeks (2B, $10 million): Injuries have derailed the two-time collegiate batting champ since he joined the Brewers. Injuries aside, Weeks is nothing more than a below average fielding 2nd baseman and an above average offensive player with speed. That previous sentence doesn't describe a guy worth $10 million. With Scooter Gennett scheduled to start at 2nd base in Double-A this year, the Brewers have a younger and cheaper option nipping at Weeks' injured riddled heels.

#1) K-Rod (RHP, $8 million): After a soft market for closers didn't get K-Rod a mega-closer-contract that his agent (Scott Boras) promised he accepted arbitration to earn $8 million in 2012, which is more money that the rest of bullpen is scheduled to earn combined (Kameron Loe owed $2.175 million, Jose Veras owed $2 million, Manny Parra owed $1.2 million, John Axford owed $525,000, Marco Estrada owed $486,000, and Tim Dillard owed $482,000). K-Rod better cash his checks and keep his mouth shut this year because last year K-Rod complained about being just a set-up guy as opposed to the closer despite the fact that closer John Axford put together arguably the best closer performance in franchise history.


Underpaid:
Honorable Mention: Chris Narveson (LHP, $500,000) and Marco Estrada (RHP, $486,000)

#5) Jonathan Lucroy (C, $500,000): The Brewers and Lucroy recently agreed to a five-year (possibly six) contract worth a minimum of $11 million and a maximum of $18 million (if the Brewers exercise their $5.25 million option for 2017). The Brewers priced in a raise if Lucroy qualifies as a "Super Two" player following 2012 because that means that Lucroy would only have two seasons at league minimum instead of three before becoming arbitration eligible for the next four seasons. In order to qualify as "Super Two" Lucroy will have to finish in the top 22% of a complicated MLB algorithm, which he projects to do just barely. If Lucroy does not qualify for Super Two status he will earn much less in 2013 ($750,000 v. $1.9 million) otherwise the rest of the base salaries are similar. Here is the breakdown of what Lucroy will earn if he does NOT qualify for "Super Two" status in 2012: $750,00 in 2013, $2 million in 2014, $3 million in 2015, and $4 million in 2016. If Lucroy does qualify for "Super Two" status in 2012 he will earn: $1.9 million in 2013, $2.3 million in 2014, $3.3 million in 2015, and $4.25 million in 2016. "Super Two" status aside, I love the contract even if Lucroy has one or two below average seasons between now and 2017 for one simple reason, veteran backup catchers make at least $1 million a year so the Brewers are getting a younger starting catcher with a much bigger upside for about the same amount for at least the next five seasons.

#4) John Axford (RHP, $525,000): The Brewers are currently talking with Axford's representatives about a long-term contract extension. Despite everything I just said about Lucroy it makes no sense to do the same thing with Axford because of how unpredictable closer performances are year-to-year besides the super human Mariano Rivera. Axford is not even salary arbitration eligible till 2013 meaning he cannot become a free agent till after the 2016 season at the earliest. The Brewers should go year-to-year with Axford. If Axford performs well for the next few years, the Brewers will pay for it. If Axford struggles, the Brewers don't have to worry about a long-term financial commitment. I guess that's a long way of saying I think its worth paying long-term for catching as opposed to saves.

#3) Zack Greinke (RHP, $13.5 million): If the Brewers did not have the reigning N.L. MVP (Ryan Braun) and their opening day starter (Yovani Gallardo) earning less than Greinke combined, I would have Greinke #1 on this list despite being the highest paid player on the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers. Greinke is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2012 season and has been without an agent all off-season as the Brewers tried to sign him long-term. In the interim the San Francisco Giants signed right handed starting pitcher Matt Cain to a six-year, $127.5 million contract. While that is great financial news for the Cain and Greinke families, it's a big blow to the Brewers. If you look at Cain's numbers (69-73 with a 3.35 ERA in 204 games) v. Greinke's numbers (76-73 with a 3.82 ERA in 238 games), Greinke still has a better resume since he pitched in the American League for a good portion of those start en route to winning the CY Young in 2009. Cain is 11 months younger that Greinke, which makes age less of a factor. Now that Greinke re-hired his old agent Casey Close that moved from Creative Artists Agency to Excel Sports Management, the Brewers better get ready to pay Greinke at least $20 million a year if they want to keep him in Milwaukee.

#2) Yovani Gallardo (RHP, $5.5 million): Only a handful of teams can truly claim to have more than one "Ace" in their starting rotation. Salary aside I would much rather have Greinke and his quirky personality than Gallardo. When you factor in that Gallardo is scheduled to earn $8 million less than Greinke in 2012 then Gallardo becomes much more valuable to me than Greinke. Even if Greinke leaves after 2012, at least the Brewers have Gallardo signed through 2014.

#1) Ryan Braun (LF, $6 million): Thanks to Braun pulling the Reverse Al Capone the Brewers will get the reigning NL MVP's services for only $6 million...enough said.

A special thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for providing all the financial data used for this post.

Check back the rest of the week and throughout the weekend for a ton of Milwaukee Brewers coverage as the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers open the defense of their 2011 N.L. Central Title against their hated rival and 2011 World Series champs the St. Louis Cardinals.


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