Showing posts with label Erik Walden. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Erik Walden. Show all posts

Saturday, November 10, 2012

Ranking "In Memoriam" Packers midway through 2012

There has been a fair amount of roster turnover for the 2012 Green Bay Packers.  In just nine weeks, six players that started the season on the initial 53-man roster were either cut or put on injured reserve.  To get a feel for how much the Packers are missing each of the six players no longer on the initial 53-man roster, here is a quick look at where I ranked the six of them in my initial player rankings:

#52) Brandian Ross (CB) - the biggest surprise to me on the initial 53-man roster was cut and signed to the practice squad to make way for Erik Walden once he served his one game suspension for off the field transgressions.  Ross was signed to the Oakland Raiders 53-man roster by former Green Bay Packers director of player personal Reggie McKenzie, who is now the general manger for the Oakland Raiders.  Look for a number of players that are cut by the Packers over the next few years to land with the Raiders thanks to McKenzie's connection to the Packers.

#49) Phillip Merling (DL) - I questioned the decision to keep Merling instead of Daniel Muir but either one was going to be cut once Mike Neal returned from suspension a quarter of the way through the season anyhow since Neal clearly has incriminating information on one of the higher ups in the Packers organization.

#47) Brandon Saine (RB) - A quality special teams player that never got a real chance to play offensively is lost for the season with a knee injury.  Fellow running back Alex Green went through the same thing between last year so Green will be a good resource for Saine since next year will be a make-or-break year for Saine's NFL career.

#31) Cedric Benson (RB) - I have always been skeptical that the Packers actually need a three-down running back.  After seeing how well Benson performed in limited action early in the season running with a real purpose, he suffered a lis franc injury.  The Packers put Benson on the "modified injured reserve" so they have the option to add him back to the active roster eight weeks from October 10th.  Hopefully Benson can return healthy because the Packers have gotten below average results from their other running back (Green, Kuhn, and Starks).

#20) D.J. Smith (MLB) - According to NFL advanced stats nerds, middle linebacker and safety are two easiest positions to replace on defense.  Since the Packers play a 3-4 defense they need at least two middle linebackers.  The Packers lost their best middle linebacker (Desmond Bishop) before the season started so it looked like they could ill afford to lose their second best middle linebacker as well.  A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones have been pretty good filling in for Bishop and Smith so may be the stat hears are right.

#15) Nick Perry (OLB) - When news reports surfaced that Perry was "going for a second opinion on his knee" he was actually having season ending hand surgery.  Perry being lost for the season coincided with Claymaker getting hurt as well so the Packers might be forced to start two new outside linebackers when they return from their bye.  Obviously Claymaker is irreplaceable but I feel confident that Erik Walden is better than Perry now (may be not in 2013 though) so that might actually be an upgrade.  Leaving Walden aside though, I question whether Dezman Moses or Frank Zombo can even be 50% of Claymaker.

Thompson replaced the six players discussed above with Andrew Quarless (TE), Mike Neal (DE), Greg Van Roten (OG), Erik Walden (OLB), Johnny White (RB), and Frank Zombo (OLB).  Check back tomorrow for where I rank the new roster additions along with their 47 teammates in my mid-season player rankings for the current 53-man Green Bay Packers roster.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

2012 Green Bay Packers Should Play Some 4-3


We all know the Green Bay Packers’ offense led by Aaron Rodgers can pick up big chunks of passing yards with great flourish, just look at how they dismantled one of the premier defenses on the road last week against the Texans to hand them their first loss of 2012.  Unfortunately, the defense can give up big chunks of passing yards with similar spectacle.  In order to strengthen the prospects for another Super Bowl title, this has to stop.  One way to strengthen the defense in this area is to play some snaps in a 4-3 defense as opposed to the traditional 3-4 defense.

Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers changed the formation from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4 defense when the Packers hired him in 2009.  Initially, the Packers transitioned smoothly to the 3-4 scheme.  After letting defensive lineman Cullen Jenkins leave via free agency before the 2011 NFL season though, the Packers struggled to create a consistent pass rush from the defensive line.  As a result, the Packers gave up 4,796 passing yards last year, which is the most in NFL history.  Since the Packers finished the 2011 regular season with a 15-1 record, we can chalk up some of those lost passing yards to opponents who attempted to minimize the point differential created by the stellar Packer offense.  The majority of the yards, however, are due to the fact that the Packers did not create enough pressure on the other team’s quarterback.  The Packers cannot retroactively re-sign Jenkins, so they need to consider other options in order to have an effective pass defense for the rest of 2012.

General manager Ted Thompson addressed the Packers’ lack of pass rush when he selected defensive end/outside linebacker Nick Perry from USC and defensive lineman Jerel Worthy from Michigan State with the Packers' first two picks in the 2012 NFL Draft.  Those first two selections by Thompson marked the start of an unprecedented six-pick run of drafting defensive players.

The SackSEER 2.0 Model developed by Football Outsiders projected Perry to be the most effective pass rusher coming out of the 2012 NFL Draft. While that projection seems impressive, it is important to remember that the model factored in Perry’s collegiate production as a defensive end in a 4-3 defense, not the 3-4 defense used by the Packers.  Worthy is a versatile player that could play either defensive tackle in a 4-3 defense or any position along the defensive line in the 3-4 defense as long as he gives 100% effort in the NFL.  Both Perry and Worthy project as versatile players in the NFL that can play in almost any defensive scheme on a long term basis, but they look like better fits for a 4-3 defensive scheme in the short-term.  Perry even expressed an interest in playing defensive end in a 4-3 scheme as opposed to outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme before the 2012 NFL Draft.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the Packers should change their entire defensive scheme based on a couple of rookies.  The Packers now have a number of new players that fit a 4-3 scheme though, so they have the ability to play a few snaps a game in the 4-3 defense.  This will benefit the Packers because it will give them another way to attack teams defensively and help stymie strong offenses.  Plus, allowing rookies to play in schemes where they are comfortable will assist them in making a smooth transition from college football to the NFL.  That smooth transition only serves the Packers well in the long run.

I know the Packers only played a traditional 3-4 defense for roughly 1/3rd of all their defensive snaps in 2011, but lowering that number a little by increasing the number of snaps they play in a 4-3 defense in 2012 plays to the Packers’ strengths and will keep opposing offenses on their toes.  If that doesn’t convince you yet, the Packers lost their two best middle linebackers for the season already. Desmond Bishop got hurt in the preseason and D.J. Smith got hurt last week against the Texans.  All of a sudden the Packers only have one traditional middle linebackers on their roster in A.J. Hawk.  Besides Hawk, the Packers will have to lean on a number of backups with little game experience playing middle linebacker.

Let me be clear, I am not advocating a wholesale shift from a 3-4 to a 4-3, but if the defensive line and linebackers can create a little more pressure via a 4-3 scheme for a handful of snaps a game, it will allow the secondary to continue to create turnovers while surrendering less yards.  The Packers should at least experiment with a 4-3 defense with B.J. Raji, Ryan Pickett, Jerel Worthy, and Nick Perry along the defensive line and Clay Matthews, A.J. Hawk, and Erik Walden at linebacker.  A few snaps a game in a 4-3 defense might be a solution to some of their defensive woes.

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

2012 Green Bay Packers Roster 4.0

The roster is rounding into form with three preseason game in the books on the road v. Chargers, at home v. Browns, and on the road v. Bengals.  Based on what I've seen so far, here are my final thoughts on what the 53-man roster and 8-man practice squad should look for the 2012 Green Bay Packers:

Quarterback (2): Aaron Rodgers and Graham Harrell
Analysis: I've been saying this all preseason but it couldn't be more true this week, Harrell is playing for his roster spot.  If Harrell doesn't perform well this week, the Packers will be forced to add another signal caller.

Running Back (3): Cedric Benson, James Starks, and Alex Green
Analysis: With the emergence of Benson as a legitimate every down back, I decided to cut Brandon Saine so the Packers can keep an extra wide receiver since they are a throwing team first that runs occasionally.

Fullback (1): John Kuhn
Analysis: Every time Kuhn touches the ball on the road you really get a feel for how well Packers fans travel because you can hear a very loud "Kuuuhhhhnnnn" on the television broadcast.

Tight End (4): Jermichael Finley, Tom Crabtree, D.J. Williams, and Ryan Taylor
PUP (1): Andrew Quarless
Analysis: With Quarless officially on the PUP list, every other tight end can breathe a sigh of relief because it has become a Ted Thompson rule to keep at least four tight ends the last few years.

Wide Receiver (6)
: Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver, Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Jarrett Boykin
Analysis: Last preseason there was a ton of talk about whether the Packers would keep five tight ends, this preseason the talk centered on whether the Packers would keep six wide receivers.  It was tough to choose between Diondre Borel, Jarrett Boykin, Tori Gurley, and Dale Moss because all four have been impressive in short stings this preseason.  Since I am going to visit my sister-in-law this weekend at Virgina Tech, I gave the final roster spot to Boykin, the career leader in receptions and receiving yards for Virgina Tech.

Tackle (3): Bryan Bulaga, Marshall Newhouse, and Derek Sherrod
Analysis: I am rolling the dice here that Sherrod is healthy enough to be active, which is why Andrew Datko didn't make the 53-man roster but it would not surprise me if Sherrod ended up on the PUP list thus opening a roster spot for Datko or a player cut from another team on the 53-man roster.

Guard (4): Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang, Reggie Wells, and Don Barclay
Analysis: Too bad that Ray Dominguez had to go on injured reserve but luckily Barclay has performed well to give the Packers a quality, young backup to go along with an old-fart like Wells.

Center (2): Jeff Saturday and Even Dietrich-Smith
Analysis: So far so good for Saturday but since this could be his last NFL season, I would be shocked if he could make it through the entire season healthy so EDS better be ready to play.

Defensive End (3)
: Jerel Worthy, C.J. Wilson, and Phillip Merling
Suspended (1): Mike Neal
Analysis: I could see Merling getting cut in favor of a waiver wire pick-up but for now, Merling sticks just because of his experience in the 3-4 defense.

Defensive Tackle (4): B.J. Raji, Ryan Pickett, Mike Daniels, and Daniel Muir
Analysis: Much like Merling, I could see Muir getting cut for a waiver wire pick-up as well.

Outside Linebacker (4)
: Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, Brad Jones, and Dezman Moses
Suspended: Erik Walden
PUP (1): Frank Zombo
Analysis: Perry has done enough to lock down the starting outside linebacker spot opposite Claymaker.  The more interesting question is what guy will be first off the bench because Walden and Moses have played very well.  Since Walden is suspend Week 1, it gives the Packers the flexibility to hold another player on the 53-man roster or claim someone off waivers for a one week trial before activating Walden.

Middle Linebacker (5): D.J. Smith, A.J. Hawk, Robert Francois, Jamari Lattimore, and Terrell Manning
Analysis: For how well all the backup outside linebackers played in the preseason, the backup middle linebackers have been fairly quiet so I would not be surprised if Francois, Lattimore, or Manning get cut before Week 2 so the Packers can activate Walden.

Cornerback (5): Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, Davon House, Casey Hayward, and Jarrett Bush
Analysis: Besides Williams, the Packers have four lottery tickets at cornerback.  If two lottery tickets payoff, the pass defense will improve drastically in 2012.  Anything less than two winning tickets and the secondary struggle much like they did in 2011.
 
Safety (4)
: Charles Woodson, Morgan Burnett, Jerron McMillian, and M.D. Jennings
Analysis: Based on draft position alone the Packers will keep McMillian, which makes it a three horse race for one spot between Anthony Levine, M.D. Jennings, and Sean Richardson. Based on his impressive combination of size (6'2") and speed (4.47 40-yard dash), I almost kept Richardson instead of Jennings but since Jennings has been in the system a year longer than Richardson, I gave Jennings the roster spot.

Specialists (3): Mason Crosby (K), Tim Masthay (P), and Brett Goode (LS)
Analysis: Nothing to add here, let's just hope all three specialist stay healthy in 2012.

Practice Squad (8): B.J. Coleman (QB), Andrew Datko (T), Tori Gurley (WR), Anthony Levine (S), Otis Merrill (CB), Sean Richardson (S), Brandon Saine (RB), and Greg Van Roten (G)
Analysis: A few weeks ago I said the Packers would not have as talented of a practice squad as they did the last few years.  After getting to see three preseason games, I take back that assertion.  Besides the eight guys mentioned above, the Packers could fill a talented second practice squad with Brandon Bostick (TE), Diondre Borel (WR), Nic Cooper (FB), Sampson Genus (C), Dale Moss (WR), Brandian Ross (CB), Vic So'oto (OLB), and Marc Tyler (RB).

Check back tomorrow for my quick thoughts on the Packers/Chiefs preseason game and Friday for my quick thoughts on the actual final roster cut-downs.

Saturday, August 20, 2011

2011 Preseason Week 2 - Packers/Cardinals Review

Sorry about the delayed "Quick Thoughts" post on the Packers/Cardinals preseason game, I was unable to see the replay of the game on the NFL Network until later on Saturday night. With my apology out of the way, here are my quick thoughts on the Packers/Cardinal preseason game:

#1) Player that hurt his stock most: Derek Sherrod struggled at both left guard and left tackle so it looks like Sherrod's chances of opening the season as one of the five starters along the offensive line ended against the Cardinals. As a result, absent injury, the starting offensive line (left to right) for the 2011 Green Bay Packers will be: Chad Clifton (LT), T.J. Lang (LG), Scott Wells (C), Josh Sitton (RG), and Bryan Bulaga (RT).

#2) Player that helped his stock most: The Packers have a ton of undrafted free agents that would make most NFL rosters but since the Packers already had 53 guys worthy of being on their opening 53-man roster before the 2011 NFL Draft, there are going to be a ton of guys worth keeping on the active roster that will most likely get cut. Just look at a few of the undrafted free agents that are having a good training camp but are still long shots to make the opening day 53-man roster: running back (Brandon Saine), wide receiver (Chastin West, Diondre Borel, and Tory Gurley), and cornerback (Brandian Ross and Josh Gordy).

#3) Position to watch: Since left guard was already handled above and a number of guys fighting to start at defensive end (Mike Neal and Lawrence Guy) sat out with injury, let's look at the starting outside linebacker spot opposite Clay Matthews. After Brad Jones struggled at the start of training camp, the starting outside linebacker spot opposite Clay Matthews looked like a two horse race between Erik Walden and Frank Zombo. Neither player did much to grab hold of the starting job although Zombo played slightly better than Walden against the Cardinals. Look for Walden and Zombo to get a ton of snaps next week against the Colts so the Packers can pick one of them to be the opening day starter opposite Clay Matthews.

#4) Injuries: C.J. Wilson (concussion) and Randall Cobb (bruised knee) were the only players that suffered anything more than a minor injury against the Cardinals. No further injury information was available about either player but look for the Packers to be cautious with both players because both are virtually guaranteed roster spots on the opening day 53-man roster as long as their injuries are not too serious.

Final Note: Last week roughly 30,000 fans attended the Packers/Browns preseason game in Cleveland. This week 67,688 fans attended the Packers/Cardinals game in Green Bay, which is still roughly 5,000 below capacity at Lambeau Field but much better than 40,000 below capacity like in Cleveland last weekend. Green Bay is a very unique place and fans are especially excited about the Packers since they won Super Bowl XLV but 35,000 more fans showing up in Green Bay than in Cleveland is embarrassing for the mistake by the lake.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Week 17 of 2010 - Packers/Bears Review

The Green Bay Packers dispatched the Chicago Bears 10-3 to secure the 6th seed in the playoffs. Despite losing to the Packers, the Bears still lead the all-time series 92-83-6 (including the postseason). Here are the things that stood out to me from the Packers/Bears game from Week 17 of the 2010 regular season:

The Timeout by Lovie Smith:
With a little over a minute left in the 3rd quarter the Bears were facing a 3rd and 15 from their own 45-yard line. Bears head coach Lovie Smith called a timeout right before the ball was snapped. None of the players on the field realized and the Bears picked up the first down. Thanks to the time out the Bears did not pick up the first down on their actual attempt and were forced to punt.

Jordy Nelson:
On 3rd and 15 from their own 41-yard line the Packers ran a wide receiver screen for Jordy Nelson. The play was designed and blocked perfectly. If Nelson went inside instead of heading for the sidelines, which he should be doing anyhow since the Packers were trying to run down the clock, Nelson would have picked up the first down. Instead, Nelson got stopped a yard short and the Packers were forced to punt.

Tramon Williams punt return:
I have long been critical of the Packers using starting cornerback Tramon Williams as their primary punt returner because an injury to Williams on a punt return would be catastrophic for the Packers’ defense. I guess today is the reason why the Packers decided to stick with Williams despite the potential injury risk. After making the first guy miss, Williams gave the offense their best starting field position of the day. It was a nice return by Williams but I still contend that Sam Shields or Pat Lee have the same ability back there to make a return like Williams did on that play. All Williams had to do was make the first guy miss because the punt was perfectly blocked for may be the first time all season. Please McCarthy, put another guy back there to return punts.

Packers special teams still gave up a big return:
After tying the score 3-3 instead of going up 7-3 despite having 1st and goal from the Bears’ 1-yard line, the Packers tried a short high kick to limit the return. Despite having good intentions, the Packers gave up a big return and the Bears got the ball at midfield with 2:32 left in the 3rd quarter with the game tied 3-3. I have been very critical of special teams coach Shawn Slocum all season and this is just more evidence why Slocum looks out-coached more often than not.

Erik Walden filling in at outside linebacker:
The Packers have been in “next guy up” mode at the outside linebacker spot opposite Clay Matthews all season. The Packers already lost two outside linebackers for the season to injury (Brad Jones and Brady Poppinga) while another guy (Frank Zombo) has been out for an extended period of time. In a sign that this might be a magical season despite all the injuries that the Packers suffered the 4th guy in line to play, who was acquired during the season, put together one of the best defensive performances of the season. For the day Walden had 11 tackles and 3 sacks. Performances like that continue to earn Packers general manager Ted Thompson goodwill with the fans. Although Walden is anything but a household name even in Green Bay, he showed the promise that the Packers saw in him earlier in the season.

Bryan Bulaga looked like a rookie:
For the second week in a row the Packers faced one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. Rookie offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga had possibly his worst game of the season. Not only did Bulaga commit silly penalties but he was consistently beat. Bulaga is only a rookie so days like that are expected. The Packers need to make better in game adjustments to help Bulaga when he struggles because the competition is only going to be fiercer in the playoffs.

Cover Bears wide receiver Rashied Davis:
Bears quarterback Jay Cutler tends to lock onto receivers, which either results in careless interceptions or a big day for that receiver. Davis was the leading receiver for the Bears (7 catches for 63 yards). Granted that is not a huge day for a receiver but it seemed like Cutler locked onto Davis on every third down play and still completed most of those passes. The Packers have to recognize that better and make the proper adjustments.

Packer punter Tim Masthay’s impressive performance:
Packers special teams maven Jarrett Bush downed a punt at the Bears’ 2-yard line to force the Bears to go 98-yards in less than 5 minutes to have a chance to end the Packers’ season on a two-point conversion. That was set-up by yet another impressive punt by Masthay. Coming into the season punter was probably the weakest position on the team but as crazy as it sounds, Masthay is turning into an above average NFL punter.

Mike McCarthy finally calling a play-action pass at the goaline:
After failing to score a touchdown despite having a 1st and goal at the Bears’ 1-yard at the end of the 3rd quarter, McCarthy finally wised up and called something different than his usual fullback dive up the middle. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers found a wide-open Donald Lee for the only touchdown of the game. McCarthy would probably say running in short yardage situations set-up that pass but it has taken way too long for McCarthy to realize that passing is better than running in that situation.

Jay Cutler somehow stayed healthy:
If this game was supposed to help Cutler prepare for his first ever post-season start it can only be teaching via the negative. For the day Cutler was 21 for 39 throwing for 168 yards, 2 interceptions, and was sacked 6 times...yikes.

Lovie Smith:
In Lovie Smith’s first press conference as head coach of the Chicago Bears he said that his #1 goal was to beat the Green Bay Packers. I give Smith credit for playing the game as if it mattered despite the fact that the Bears were already locked into the 2nd seed. As Smith intimated, you never want to let your divisional rival get into the playoffs. Smith is now 4-3 at Lambeau Field, 5-5 against Mike McCarthy, and 8-6 overall against the Packers. Will the Packers and Bears meet again in the playoffs? Odds say no because they have only met once in the post season and that was all the way back in 1941. Either way give Smith credit, he did his best to keep the Packers out of the playoffs.

Tip of the cap to Peter King:
Peter King in his Monday Morning Quarterback column compared the best three year stretch for Bart Starr and Brett Favre (keep in mind that Favre won three MVPs in 1995-1997) with Aaron Rodgers' first three years in the league:

- Rodgers (2008-10): 27-20 record, 2 playoff appearances, 12,723 passing yards, 86 touchdowns, 31 interceptions for a 99.4 passer rating.

- Starr (1964-66): 29-10-2 record, 2 playoff appearances, 6,456 passing yards, 45 touchdowns, 16 interceptions for a 97.0 passer rating.

- Favre (1995-97): 37-11 record, 3 playoff appearances, 12,179 passing yards, 112 touchdowns, 42 interceptions for a 96.1 passer rating.

Final regular season thoughts:
- Aaron Rodgers’ 98.4 career regular season passer rating is the best in NFL history for a quarterback with a minimum 1,500 career passes.
- The 2010 Green Bay Packers went 10-6 in the regular season. Of those six loses all of them came by four points or less: two overtime losses by a field goal, two losses in the waning seconds of the 4th quarter on field goals, and two losses by four points on the road minus Aaron Rodgers in crunch time.
- The 2010 Green Bay Packers never trailed by more than 7 points throughout the entire regular season. That is the first time that has happened since the AFL/NFL merger.
- The 2010 Green Bay Packers outscored their opponents by 187 points, which lead the entire NFL.

All of the aforementioned stats make the 2010 Green Bay Packers one of the most dangerous teams heading into the playoffs despite the fact that they are a 6th seed. The Packers’ road to the Super Bowl must come via three road playoff victories but with how well they are playing anything can happen.