Thursday, June 28, 2012

2012 First Round NBA Mock Draft

Much like I said last year, undoubtedly there will be a ton of trades deeming this "mock" draft essentially useless but I want to get on record what I think each general manager should do with each pick:

1. New Orleans Hornets - Anthony Davis (PF, 6'11", 222 lbs, 9'0" reach, 7'6" wingspan, Kentucky, 19 years old) - The biggest lock to go #1 overall since the 2003 NBA Draft when LeBron James was the first pick.

2. Charlotte Bobcats - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (SF, 6'8", 233 lbs, 8'9" reach, 7'0" wingspan, Kentucky, 18 years old) - Will start for the Bobcats on opening night next season at small forward, especially after the Bobcats shipped Corey Maggette to Detroit for Ben Gordon and a protected first round pick in the 2013 NBA Draft.  Great trade for the Bobcats, not something that occurs very often but now that techno-genius general manager Rich Cho is running the front office, look for the Bobcats to improve despite losing the Davis Sweepstakes even though they had the best odds of winning the lottery. 

3. Washington Wizards - Bradley Beal (SG, 6'5", 202 lbs, 8'3" reach, 6'8" wingspan, Florida, 18 years old) - Despite my man crush for Jordan Crawford, Beal gives the Wizards the perfect shooting guard to compliment point guard John Wall. 

4. Cleveland Cavaliers - Harrison Barnes (SF, 6'8", 228 lbs, 8'6" reach, 6'10" wingspan, UNC, 20 years old) - The Cavs would love to get Beal but Barnes makes just as much sense. 

5. Sacramento Kings - Thomas Robinson (PF, 6'9", 244 lbs, 8'10" reach, 7'4" wingspan, Kansas, 21 years old) - Could go as high as 2nd overall on talent but Robinson doesn't feel like the right fit for anyone until the Kings so they should be ecstatic to add get Robinson without having to trade up in the draft. 

6. Portland Trail Blazers (via Brooklyn Nets) -  Andre Drummond (C, 7'0", 279 lbs, 9'2" reach, 7'6" wingspan, UConn, 18 years old) - Forget the curse of Sam Bowie and Greg Oden ... Drummond has the highest upside of any player in the draft unfortunately he has one of the lowest floors as well.

7. Golden State Warriors - Damian Lillard (SG, 6'3", 189 lbs, 8'0" reach, 6'8" wingspan, Weber State, 21 years old) - Hard to say whether Lillard is a good stats against bad competition guy or a stud that will step up his game at the next level.

8. Toronto Raptors - Dion Waiters (SG, 6'4", 221 lbs, 8'2" reach, 6'7" wingspan, Syracuse, 20 years old) - Has Top 5 potential so this is a nice value at 8. 

9. Detroit Pistons - John Henson (PF, 6'10", 216 lbs, 9'2" reach, 7'5" wingspan, UNC, 21 years old) - Needs to add 20 pounds of muscle if he wants to play a real power forward/center but if Henson can add the aforementioned muscle mass he could be the second best player in the draft. 

10. New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota Timberwolves) - Perry Jones (PF, 6'11", 234 lbs, 8'11" reach, 7'2" wingspan, Baylor, 20 years old) - Would have gone in the Top 5 in the 2011 NBA Draft so getting him with the 10th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft shows that good things come to those who wait. 

11. Portland Trail Blazers - Austin Rivers (SG, 6'5", 203 lbs, 8'1" reach, 6'7" wingspan, Duke, 19 years old) - After adding a center with the 5th pick, getting a shooter makes a ton of sense. 

12. Houston Rockets (via Milwaukee Bucks) - Meyers Leonard (C, 7'1", 250 lbs, 9'1" reach, 7'3" wingspan, Illinois, 20 years old) - This seems like a boom-or-bust pick that I totally support because Leonard feels like a potential All-Star if he can focus. 

13. Phoenix Suns - Jeremy Lamb (SG, 6'5", 179 lbs, 8'5" reach, 6'11" wingspan, UConn, 20 years old) - I wonder whether the fact that Rivers comes from NBA bloodlines (father currently coaches the Boston Celtics) is making me undervalue Lamb because it feels like Lamb should go somewhere in the Top 10 on talent alone but I just couldn't find a spot for him. 

14. Milwaukee Bucks (via Houston Rockets) - Tyler Zeller (C, 7'0", 247 lbs, 8'8" reach, 7'0" wingspan, UNC, 22 years old) - After trading down as a part of the Dalembert trade, I still think it makes sense to draft a center. Zeller feels a little bit like Tyler Hansbrough 2.0 in terms of motor plus three inches of height.  Zeller doesn't have as much potential upside as Leonard but has a much higher floor than Leonard. 

15. Philadelphia 76ers - Terrence Jones (PF, 6'10", 252 lbs, 8'10" reach, 7'2" wingspan, Kentucky, 20 years old) - Seeing a guy like Jones drop out of the lottery speaks to the depth of this draft.  The first five players seem like locks but from 6 to 20 it seems like they all have an equal chance of success. 

16. Houston Rockets (via New York Knicks) - Terrence Ross (SG, 6'7", 197 lbs, 8'5" reach, 6'7" wingspan, Washington, 21 years old) - A lanky scorer is exactly what the Rockets need, which is exactly what they will get in Ross. 

17. Dallas Mavericks - Moe Harkless (SF, 6'9", 207 lbs, 8'8" reach, 7'0" wingspan, St. John's, 21 years old) - I hate to besmirch a guy with the first name Moe but he has Marcus Haslip written all over him so I probably should have put him lower.

18. Houston Rockets (via Minnesota Timberwolves via Utah Jazz) - Arnett Moultrie (PF, 6'11", 233 lbs, 8'11" reach, 7'2" wingspan, Mississippi St., 21 years old) - Hard to pass on a quality body that can play anywhere from 3 to 5 with the 18th pick.

19. Orlando Magic - Kendall Marshall (PG, 6'4", 198 lbs, 7'11" reach, 6'6" wingspan, UNC, 20 years old) - Jameer Nelson has always been a ho-hum point guard, Marshall looks to have a slightly bigger upside but adding a guy like Marshall feels uninspired if they are trying to entice Dwight Howard to stay in Orlando. 

20. Denver Nuggets - Marquis Teague (PG, 6'2", 180 lbs, 8'3" reach, 6'7" wingspan, Kentucky, 19 years old) - I can't necessarily blame Teague for entering the draft but another season in college most likely would have cemented him as a Top 10 and possibly a Top 5 pick. 

21. Boston Celtics - Royce White (SF, 6'8", 261 lbs, 8'9" reach, 7'0" wingspan, Iowa State, 21 years old) - Might be the lock of the draft if all the reports are true.  With how hot White's stock has been over the last week though, I could actually see him going higher in the draft so the Celtics might have to trade up if they are that enamored with White. 

22. Boston Celtics (via L.A. Clippers) - Fab Melo (C, 7'0", 255 lbs, 9'2" reach, 7'2" wingspan, Syracuse, 22 years old) - I would be shocked if the Celtics didn't resign KG, which will make him a great task master to keep Melo in line and help him fulfill his potential. 

23. Atlanta Hawks - Andrew Nicholson (PF, 6'10", 234 lbs, 8'11" reach, 7'4" wingspan, St. Bonaventure, 22 years old) - Always hard to project how small school guys will do in the pros but with Nicholson's wingspan he is well worth the risk. 

24. Cleveland Cavaliers (via L.A. Lakers) - Quincy Miller (SF, 6'10", 219 lbs, 9'1" reach, 7'1" wingspan, Baylor, 19 years old) - I so wanted to give the Cavs an up and coming point guard to make the Ramon Session trade even more preposterous than it already is but with Kyrie Irving in the fold, it doesn't make sense for the Cavs to draft a center.  As a result, I gave them what might be the steal of the draft at 24 since I see Miller as borderline lottery pick talent. 

25. Memphis Grizzlies - Tony Wroten Jr. (PG, 6'6", 203 lbs, 8'5" reach, 6'9" wingspan, Washington, 19 years old) - More of a passer than a shooter but seems to have the passing gene, which as Ricky Rubio showed, is an innate quality that can very rarely be taught. 

26. Indiana Pacers - Jared Sullinger (PF, 6'9", 268 lbs, 8'11" reach, 7'1" wingspan, Ohio State, 20 years old) - Taking Sullinger in the Top 15 seemed ridiculous to me even before the revelations about his creaky back.  For Sullinger's sake I hope I am wrong but he feels like the second coming of Tractor Traylor. 

27. Miami Heat - Draymond Green (SF, 6'8", 236 lbs, 8'10" reach, 7'1" wingspan, Michigan State, 22 years old) - No one thing stands out about Green's game, he's just an all around solid player.

28. Oklahoma City Thunder - Evan Fournier (SG, 6'7", 206 lbs, 8'7" reach, 6'8" wingspan, France, 19 years old) - Hitting home runs is a lot harder in the late twenties than in the Top 5.  Fournier has the talent to be draft a much higher pick but it's not clear whether he will play in the NBA next year or will stay in Europe for a few more years so his stock took a slight hit. 

29. Chicago Bulls - Will Barton (SG, 6'6", 174 lbs, 8'7" reach, 6'10" wingspan, Memphis, 21 years old) - Didn't project to go in the first round when the draft process started but Barton is the perfect example of how the draft process helps certain guys by giving them exposure to teams to help push them up draft boards. 

30. Golden State Warriors (via San Antonio Spurs) - Jeff Taylor (SF, 6'7", 212 lbs, 8'9" reach, 6'11" wingspan, Vanderbilt, 23 years old) - A great pick because Taylor plays great defense, which is a rare commodity for the Warriors since historically they play absolutely no defense.

Related Posts:
- Wednesday What (Might) Happen - 2012 NBA Draft First Round Preview for the Bucks
- Quick Thoughts - Bucks/Rockets 2012 NBA Draft Day Eve Trade
- Wednesday What (Might) Happen - 2012 NBA Draft Second Round Preview for the Bucks
- Wednesday What (Should) Happen - Advice for John Hammond

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

2012 NBA Draft First Round Preview for John Hammond

The NBA Draft is more of an exact science in terms of coverage than the NFL Draft because there is a smaller pool of players to focus on since the NBA Draft involves only 60 picks while the 2012 NFL Draft had 253 picks.

I previewed some guys I thought the Bucks should target in the second round with the 42nd pick, now let's move onto the first round of the 2012 NBA Draft.

In case you missed it, the Milwaukee Bucks made a trade with the Houston Rockets.  Despite getting Samuel Dalembert, presumably their starting center now for next season as a part of the trade, the Bucks should still consider adding a center with the 14th pick.  In fact I am fine with the Bucks taking a player at any position besides point guard.

I am going to publish my "mock" draft for the first round of the 2012 NBA Draft tomorrow.  In a preview of coming attractions, I would be shocked if these guys were not the first nine players (listed in alphabetical order) selected in the 2012 NBA Draft thus they will most likely not be available at the 14th pick for the Bucks: Harrison Barnes (SF, 6'8", 228 lbs, 8'6" reach, 6'10" wingspan, UNC, 20 years old), Bradley Beal (SG, 6'5", 202 lbs, 8'3" reach, 6'8" wingspan, Florida, 18 years old), Anthony Davis (PF, 6'11", 222 lbs, 9'0" reach, 7'6" wingspan, Kentucky, 19 years old), Andre Drummond (C, 7'0", 279 lbs, 9'2" reach, 7'6" wingspan, UConn, 18 years old), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (SF, 6'8", 233 lbs, 8'9" reach, 7'0" wingspan, Kentucky, 18 years old), John Henson (PF, 6'10", 216 lbs, 9'2" reach, 7'5" wingspan, UNC, 21 years old), Damian Lillard (SG, 6'3", 189 lbs, 8'0" reach, 6'8" wingspan, Weber State, 21 years old), Thomas Robinson (PF, 6'9", 244 lbs, 8'10" reach, 7'4" wingspan, Kansas, 21 years old), and Dion Waiters (SG, 6'4", 221 lbs, 8'2" reach, 6'7" wingspan, Syracuse, 20 years old).

Obviously I would support the Bucks taking anyone listed above besides Lillard.  With the nine bell cows of the draft out of the way (you can read my quick thoughts on each of them tomorrow). That leaves a pool of 10 guys the Bucks should target along with another 10 guys that feel like reaches at the 14th pick in the draft.  Here are my Top 10 realistic targets in order:

#1) Meyers Leonard (C, 7'1", 250 lbs, 9'1" reach, 7'3" wingspan, Illinois, 20 years old) - My draft crush on Leonard started months ago but most mock drafts had Leonard as a borderline lottery pick.  As the player evaluation process has played out over the last few months, unfortunately Leonard has shot up draft boards and looks like a potential Top 10 pick.

#2) Tyler Zeller (C, 7'0", 247 lbs, 8'8" reach, 7'0" wingspan, UNC, 22 years old) - Perfect running mate for Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis.  I question whether Zeller will ever be able to add enough muscle to be able to play with his back to the basket but he would be fun to watch as the center for the running and gunning Bucks.

#3) Austin Rivers (SG, 6'5", 203 lbs, 8'1" reach, 6'7" wingspan, Duke, 19 years old) - Don't like that Rivers is too cool to visit the Bucks because there is a very good chance that he will still be on the board at 14.  This is probably not a good time to remind people that Yi Jianlian also refused to workout for the Bucks.

#4) Jeremy Lamb (SG, 6'5", 179 lbs, 8'5" reach, 6'11" wingspan, UConn, 20 years old) - Injuries limited Lamb's ability to workout for teams the last few days but his body of work at UConn shows he is worthy of being the 14th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft

#5) Terrence Ross (SG, 6'7", 197 lbs, 8'5" reach, 6'7" wingspan, Washington, 21 years old) - If Ross went to a bigger program than Washington I would probably have him ranked higher on this list.  Either way, Ross looks like a flat our scorer that could step in for Monta Ellis when he declines his $11 million player option for the 2013-14 NBA season. 

#6) Terrence Jones (PF, 6'10", 252 lbs, 8'10" reach, 7'2" wingspan, Kentucky, 20 years old) - Despite having what feels like 10 power forwards on the current roster, Jones looks the next Vin Baker sans the drinking problem so it might be too enticing to pass on Jones.

#7) Perry Jones (PF, 6'11", 234 lbs, 8'11" reach, 7'2" wingspan, Baylor, 20 years old) - Let's make it two Jonesi in a row.  Drafting Perry Jones would give the Bucks two former Baylor power forwards.  Although Baylor is starting to build a quality program, not sure any NBA teams needs more than one Baylor power forward.

#8) Fab Melo (C, 7'0", 255 lbs, 9'2" reach, 7'2" wingspan, Syracuse, 22 years old) - More of a positional pick than a talent pick but an interesting selection if the Bucks think they can motivate Melo.

#9) Quincy Miller (SF, 6'10", 219 lbs, 9'1" reach, 7'1" wingspan, Baylor, 19 years old) - Miller has a huge upside much like his collegiate teammate Perry Jones but is coming off a serious knee injury, which makes me very nervous.

#10) Moe Harkless (SF, 6'9", 207 lbs, 8'8" reach, 7'0" wingspan, St. John's, 21 years old) - There are certain guys in every draft that I can't put my finger on why I dislike.  Harkless is that exact guy for me this year.  If the Bucks end up taking Harkless I can make one guarantee, I will never buy his jersey on principle alone.  Even if Harkless turns into a First Team All-NBA player, it will always bother me that I didn't see it so I will be forced to shun Harkless forever just because of this short paragraph about him.  If you are wondering, yes I am hoping I just reversed jinxed Harkless into becoming an NBA superstar for the Bucks.


I would be shocked if the Bucks passed on any of the aforementioned 19 players described in favor of any of the next 10 guys.  Just in case, here are my quick thoughts on the "next 10" guys:

- Marquis Teague (PG, 6'2", 180 lbs, 8'3" reach, 6'7" wingspan, Kentucky, 19 years old) - I almost included Teague in the Top 10 players to target despite Brandon Jennings being the best player currently on the roster. Teague could be the next Rajon Rondo a few years down the road but the Bucks need to win now so I can't see them reaching for Teague. 

- Tony Wroten Jr. (PG, 6'6", 203 lbs, 8'5" reach, 6'9" wingspan, Washington, 19 years old) - Like his teammate Terrence Ross slightly more but Wroten seems like a boom-or-bust prospect that should go in the early 20's.

- Draymond Green (SF, 6'8", 236 lbs, 8'10" reach, 7'1" wingspan, Michigan State, 22 years old) - The definition of a non-sexy first round pick will be productive early in his NBA career because of his ability to score.

- Arnett Moultrie (PF, 6'11", 233 lbs, 8'11" reach, 7'2" wingspan, Mississippi St., 21 years old) - If Moultrie played for a bigger program I would have given him more credence but I frankly didn't see him play enough against legitimate competition to get a good enough feel.

- Royce White (SF, 6'8", 261 lbs, 8'9" reach, 7'0" wingspan, Iowa State, 21 years old) - Apparently the Celtics love White and I actually share their sentiments.  Keep in mind that unless the Celtics make a trade they own the 21st and 22nd picks in the first round of the 2012 NBA Draft.  That is a long way of saying that White may be a good pro but taking him 14th overall feels too early.

- Evan Fournier (SG, 6'7", 206 lbs, 8'7" reach, 6'8" wingspan, France, 19 years old) - Intriguing prospect that the Bucks should target if they trade back in the first round. 

- Kendall Marshall (PG, 6'4", 198 lbs, 7'11" reach, 6'6" wingspan, UNC, 20 years old) - Teague and Wroten seem to have a ton more potential than Marshall so if the Bucks are going to take a point guard, I hope they swing for the fences with Teague or Wroten instead of Marshall. 

- Andrew Nicholson (PF, 6'10", 234 lbs, 8'11" reach, 7'4" wingspan, St. Bonaventure, 22 years old) - As I said earlier, its always hard to project how small school guys will do in the pros so I say pass on Nicholson until models can better account for how small school guys project at the next level. 

- Jared Sullinger (PF, 6'9", 268 lbs, 8'11" reach, 7'1" wingspan, Ohio State, 20 years old) - Injuries aside I would not touch new-school Tractor Traylor with a 10-foot pole.

- Will Barton (SG, 6'6", 174 lbs, 8'7" reach, 6'10" wingspan, Memphis, 21 years old) - A guy like Barton, much like Ross and Wroten, are intriguing because they all bring length to the shooting guard position but again Barton is not worth the 14th pick...may be the 24th pick...not the 14th pick.

Thanks for sticking around to hear my rambling thoughts on the 20 most likely guys that the Bucks should target.  Check back tomorrow for my full first round "mock" draft, which is a depiction of what I would do if I were the general manager of each team and had to make a selection instead of trading the pick.


Related Posts:
- Quick Thoughts - Bucks/Rockets 2012 NBA Draft Day Eve Trade
- Wednesday What (Might) Happen - 2012 NBA Draft Second Round Preview for the Bucks
- Wednesday What (Should) Happen - Advice for John Hammond

Review of Bucks/Rockets 2012 NBA Draft Day Eve Trade

For the second year in a row Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond made a trade on the eve of the draft.  Last year the Bucks pulled off a three team trade on the day of the draft.

This year the Bucks pulled off a two team trade the day before the draft.  The Bucks traded Jon Brockman, Jon Leuer, Shaun Livingston, and the 12th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft to the Houston Rockets for Samuel Dalembert, the 14th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, a future second round pick, and cash considerations.

Despite giving up three players and only taking back one, the Bucks added roughly $1.5 million (that might be covered by the "cash considerations" of the trade) in salary for next season in the trade presuming that the Bucks exercise their $6.7 million team option for Dalembert for next season.  The Rockets could gain a fair amount of cap space by declining their $3.5 million team option for Livingston for next season while only being on the hook for less than $2 million dollars for Brockman ($1 million) and Leuer ($800,000) for next season.

The Bucks were clearly targeting a center in the 2012 NBA Draft.  Well now they have one, unfortunately Dalembert is 31-years-old instead of 21-years-old.

For a quick background on Dalembert, he was drafted 26th overall by the Philadelphia 76ers in the 2001 NBA Draft.  Dalembert is 6'11" and usually averages a "Double High-Single" as I like to call it.  A Double High-Single means a player usually averages more than five but less than 10 points and 10 rebounds a game.  That player rarely puts up huge games (i.e. 20 points and 14 rebounds) but also rarely puts up a stink bomb (i.e. 4 points and 3 rebounds).  Finally Dalembert finished 10th in the league last year with 1.7 blocks a game and has averaged 1.9 blocks for his career.

I don't mind the trade although I am a sucker for feel good stories like Livingston so I am sad to see him go despite his production diminishing as last season dragged on.  Plus it looks like I can technically claim victory on dangling Brockman for a second round pick...thanks for reading my advice Mr. Hammond.

I guarantee the sticking point of the trade was including Leuer.  I am on record right before as well as right after the 2011 NBA Draft saying that Leuer will be a solid rotation guy in the NBA.  With one year under his belt, Leuer looks on his way to fulfilling those expectations.

Before the trade the Rockets held the 14th, 16th, and 18th picks in the first round of the 2012 NBA Draft.  My guess is that the Rockets offered the 18th pick instead of the 14th pick in return unless Leuer was included.  Although the 2012 NBA Draft is a deep draft, I am guessing (like my speculation on top of speculation when I have no inside information) that the Bucks did not want to move out of the lottery so they relented and included Leuer in order to get the 14th pick instead of the 18th pick in return.

One final point.  I never like being on the other side of a trade with Houston Rocket's general manager Daryl Morey aka Dork Elvis as Bill Simmons calls him.  Although this trade seems like a good one on paper, Morey is always looking two steps ahead while Hammond always feels like he is dealing with the present catastrophe instead of looking two steps ahead.

Check back later tonight for my post on the players that the Bucks should target with the 14th pick instead of the 12th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft.


Related Posts:
- Wednesday What (Might) Happen - 2012 NBA Draft Second Round Preview for the Bucks
- Wednesday What (Should) Happen - Advice for John Hammond

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

2012 NBA Draft Second Round Preview for John Hammond

It's hard to speculate on who will be available when the Milwaukee Bucks choose a player with the 42nd pick in the 2012 NBA Draft so this is less prognostication and more conjecture.  I broke the players that I think the Bucks should target into tiers, differently than how I handled this post last year, to give Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond and Company some players to strongly should consider drafting in the second round of the 2012 NBA Draft:

Second Round Centers:
All of the players listed here (and some others that I left off the list to keep this post manageable) look like fine back-up NBA centers thus I support the Bucks drafting any of these guys in the second round since it is such a need: Henry Sims (C, 7'0", 241 lbs, Georgetown, 22 years old), Festus Ezeli (C, 7'0", 264 lbs, Vanderbilt, 22 years old), Garrett Stutz (C, 7'0", 255 lbs, Wichita State, 22 years old), Robert Sacre (C, 7'0", 263 lbs, Gonzaga, 23 years old), and Kyle O'Quinn (C, 6'10", 241 lbs, Norfolk State, 22 years old).
Foreign Affair:
All of the players listed here (and some others that I left off the list to keep this post manageable) look like second round talents that the Bucks could stash in Europe for a few years (think Ersan Illyasova) to mature before they are subjected to the rigors of the NBA: Furkan Aldemir (PF, 6'9", 220 lbs, Turkey, 20 years old), Kostas Papanikolaou (SF, 6'8", 230 lbs, Greece, 21 years old), Tomas Satoransky (SG, 6'8", 201 lbs, Czach Republic, 20 years old), Tornike Shengelia (SF, 6'9" 220 lbs, Georgia, 20 years old), and Kostas Sloukas (PG, 6'3", 210 lbs, Greece, 22 years old).

Battle Tested Collegiate Veterans:
This used to be a compliment but the NBA Draft is all about potential instead of production.  As a result, I think its time for GM's to start looking at actual production instead of potential.  All these guys proved in college that they can be a consistent rotation guy in the NBA:
- Robbie Hummel (SF, 6'9", 218 lbs, Purdue, 23 years old) - Feels a little like DeJuan Blair in terms of injury history.  If Hummel stayed healthy in college he would have been a lottery pick, which makes taking him in the middle of the second round a reasonable gamble. 
- Darius Miller (SF, 6'8", 233 lbs, Kentucky, 22 years old) - With how much talent Kentucky brings in each year, its more of a compliment to the program than a knock on Miller that he never really started in college.
- Quincy Acy (SF, 6'6", 224 lbs, Baylor, 21 years old) - Baylor is slowly turning into an NBA factory.  If the Bucks added Acy that would give them two Baylor players, which is two more than I would have ever guessed. 
- John Shurna (SF, 6'8", 222 lbs, Northwestern, 22 years old) - This is the 4th small forward in a row that I targeted for the Bucks.  Although it is not a huge need, Shurna is an absolute sharp shooter from long distance.  In fact he reminds me a little of Steve Novak, which until a year ago would not have been a huge compliment, but now is enough to rationalize taking him.
- Chris Johnson (SG, 6'6", 184, lbs, Dayton, 22 years old) - I already turned my father-in-law into a Packers fan and he loves all things Dayton basketball so if the Bucks draft Johnson I might be able to convert him into a Bucks fan as well.

Collegiate Cheeseheads:
Some might think that these are no brainer "pandering" picks like drafting Jon Leuer in the second round of the 2012 NBA but as Leuer showed last year and all these guys below will show in the years to come, they all have a place in the NBA:
- Jae Crowder (SF, 6'7", 241 lbs, Marquette, 21 years old) - Although Crowder didn't work out for the Bucks, they know what Crowder brings to the table ... a high energy guy that provides instant offense and above average defense. 
- Darius Johnson-Odom (SF, 6'3", 212 lbs, Marquette, 22 years old) - Unlike Crowder, DJO actually worked out for the Bucks.  DJO projects as a hybrid PG/SG and would be a great guy to takeover the swing backup guard spot for Beno Udrih for the 2013-14 NBA season. 
- Jordan Taylor (PG, 6'2", 193 lbs, Wisconsin, 22 years old) - How the mighty have fallen.  Taylor had a great junior year followed by a lackluster senior year.  I am guessing that Taylor falls somewhere in between his junior year and senior year in terms of NBA production. Although Taylor projects more as a free agent than a draftable guy, if the Bucks trade back in the second round they should definitely draft Taylor because it is always risky counting on being able to sign rookie free agents after the draft since 29 other teams are involved.

Check back next Wednesday for my look at potential first round targets for the Milwaukee Bucks in the and next Thursday for my first round "mock" draft.


Related Posts:
- Wednesday What (Should) Happen - Advice for John Hammond

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Advice for Building the 2012-13 Milwaukee Bucks for John Hammond

If you look back at my final player rankings for the 2011-12 Milwaukee Bucks, there was a fair amount of depth but there are no real superstars.  Unfortunately the NBA is driven by stars and it doesn't look like any big time free agents will ever sign in Milwaukee so my 10 suggestions for Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond are all reasonable moves to give the 2012-13 Milwaukee Bucks a chance to make the playoffs.  Much like I did last year but in a more streamlined fashion this year; here is what Hammond should do this off-season:

#10) Exercise the $762,195 team option for Jon Leuer and the $3.5 million team option for Shaun Livingston for next season: Both of those guys are a bargain at those prices, which makes this the no-brainer decision of the off-season.

#9) Despite desperately needing a true center, say goodbye to Kwame Brown and his $7 million expiring contract: Brown was essentially a salary inclusion in the Ellis/Udoh for Bogut Trade since Brown never actually played for the Bucks.  I am almost positive that it is against NBA rules to sign a player for $1, but even that feels like it would be overpaying for Brown.

#8) Dangle Jon Brockman and his $1 million expiring contract for the 2012-13 season for a second-round pick: This isn't just because Hammond has had more hits in the second round (The Prince and Jon Leuer) than the first round (Brandon Jennings).  I actually think second round picks are an undervalued commodity in the NBA because those players are paid very little money by NBA standards for the first few years and teams usually have the right to match any offer those players receive for their second contract.  Plus the Bucks are much better off with an extra pick in the second round in the 2012 NBA Draft than Brockman riding the pine for the 2012-13 season.

#7) Read my previews of the players the Bucks should target in the first and second round of the 2012 NBA Draft on the last two Wednesdays before the 2012 NBA Draft: No I don't have a big ego but I do love all professional drafts so Hammond and Company should benefit from that love.

#6) Create some competition between Ekpe Udoh and Larry Sanders for the back-up tweener power forward/center spot behind Drew Gooden: Sadly Hammond fails to learn from his mistakes so he keeps amassing borderline centers that project more as power forwards instead of investing in an actual center (wait for #2 though because I have a solution for the center position).  Until the Bucks wise up, they will be in no man's land literally and figuratively at the center position.

#5) Feel out Monta Ellis's agent to see what Ellis is currently thinking about doing with his $11 million player option for the 2013-14 NBA season: If the Bucks play well next season, there is a decent chance that Ellis picks up his player option.  If the Bucks struggle, Ellis will most likely decline his option so that he can test the free agent market.  Don't get me wrong, Ellis is a flawed NBA player since his offensive prowess outshines his defensive output but is the perfect irrational confidence guy on a talented team (i.e. a great third banana) but is currently the first or second banana on the roster.  Plus Ellis is the best shooting guard the Bucks have had since Ray Allen, which is a direct knock on Michael Redd.

#4) Gauge the trade market for Mike Dunleavey Jr: As I said at the start of the season, I am not a fan of Dunleavey for very petty reasons but he earned my respect last season.  Add in that Dunleavey is only (I say only by NBA standards since I am positive I will never earn $3.75 million in my entire life) scheduled to earn $3.75 million and he is the perfect 6th or 7th guy off the bench for a contender.  Any of the current contenders would be much better off with Dunleavey than any non-lottery draft pick (that means any pick after the 14th pick in the first round) they could add in the 2012 NBA Draft so Hammond should actively try to trade Dunleavey while his value is high.

#3) Low-ball Carlos Delfino to see if the Bucks can keep him on the roster at a relatively modest price: When you take into account injuries and raw physical talent, Dunleavey is more valuable than Delfino right now so that means the Bucks should try to sign Delfino for less than $3.75 million a year or they will be overpaying for Delfino.  Fortunately for Delfino but unfortunately for Bucks fans Hammond has had a thing for Delfino since the Detroit Pistons drafted Delfino with the 25th pick in the 2003 NBA Draft.  Yes that is the same draft that the Pistons took Darko Milicic with the 2nd pick instead of Carmelo Anthony (3rd overall), Chris Bosh (4th overall), Dwyane Wade (5th overall), or David West (18th overall).  I guess the only good news is that luckily Hammond hasn't tried to add Milicic to the roster.

#2) Sign two, you read that correctly, two offer sheets for restricted free agent centers: First offer Roy Hibbert an extravagant front-end loaded long-term contract.  When the Indiana Pacers match that contract, offer Omer Asik 50% of what you offered Hibbert.  Obviously Hibbert would be a much bigger coup thus carries a much higher price tag than Asik but both players could start at center right now for the 2012-13 Milwaukee Bucks so adding either would be a great deal.  Most likely Hibbert and Asik will re-sign with their current team but since both are division "rivals" (Pacers and Bulls respectively) the Bucks would be dumb not to drive their price up at the very least and hit a home run on the off chance that they could lure either center to Milwaukee.

#1) Presuming that neither Hibbert or Asik actually sign with the Bucks, offer what feels like slightly below the already inflated market value for Ersan Ilyasova: That seems like horrible advice but since Ilyasova is the quintessential good stats on a bad team guy last year, he is one of the most overrated players heading for the free agent market.  Throughout the season I sung Ilyasova's praises but the last thing the Bucks need to do is overpay for a guy that will never be a franchise guy.  Much like Ellis, Ilyasova would be a great a third or fourth banana just not a first or second banana so he doesn't deserve to be paid like a first or second banana.  That is a long way of saying that Ilyasova deserves to be paid about or not much more than the mid-level exception.  Trust me, Ilyasova will make much more, I'm just telling you what he should be paid on the open market.

The ten point plan seems very doable in theory.  Let's hope Hammond and Company considers following at least some of my advice.