Since this post is going to get lengthy, I will make the introduction short. These rankings are based on a combination of ability, age, contract Status, and strength at the position. With that in mind, here are my initial rankings of the 2011 Green Bay Packers roster:
#53) M.D. Jennings (S) - The biggest surprise to make the 53-man roster might only be on the actual roster for a short time because the Packers need to add at least one more interior offensive lineman.
#52) Evan Dietrich-Smith (G/C) - Another surprise member of the 53-man roster ahead of Nick McDonald (cut) and Caleb Schlauderaff (traded). Dietrich-Smith can play guard and center so versatility is probably the main reason why he made the 53-man roster.
#51) Jamari Lattimore (OLB) - With Frank Zombo hurt, Lattimore gives the Packers depth at outside linebacker. Once Zombo is healthy, look for Lattimore to get cut and hopefully added to the practice squad.
#50) Pat Lee (CB) - Did not start at Auburn till his senior year yet the Packer used a second round draft pick on him in the 2008 NFL Draft. This will be Lee's fourth year in the league but unfortunately he has more years in the NFL than memorable plays.
#49) Brad Jones (OLB) - Has struggled to regain his form in 2011 after a promising start to the 2010 season (started five games and appeared in seven games) was cut short by injury. Some Packers coaches compared Jones to Chad Brown (former Steeler and Seahawk) but he is a homeless man's Chad Brown at best. It is put up or shut up time for Jones because the Packers have a ton of young outside linebackers vying for playing time.
#48) D.J. Williams (TE) - An undersized, athletic tight end that needs to prove the Packers made the right decision keeping him as their 5th tight end.
#47) Robert Francois (MLB) - After Nick Barnett and Brandon Chillar were cut the Packers suddenly went from having the deepest group of middle linebackers in the NFL to being rather thin at the position after their two starters. Francois showed promise in the preseason but still looks like a mediocre backup at best.
#46) Davon House (CB) - A fast (4.41 second 40-yard dash) rookie cornerback with raw athletic talent that is an unknown commodity because injuries limited his repetitions throughout the preseason.
#45) C.J. Wilson (DE) - Registered 21 tackles, six QB hits, and one sack in 2010. Those are not terrible numbers since the 3-4 defense is not set-up for defensive lineman to put up big numbers. It is more important that Wilson eats up blockers in running and passing situations to open up big play opportunities for linebackers and defensive backs.
#44) D.J. Smith (MLB) - A bit undersized (5'11" and 240 lbs) for a prototypical 3-4 middle linebacker that makes up for being undersized by being an absolute tackling machine.
#43) Tom Crabtree (TE) - Not the most polished tight end on the roster but does a little bit of everything well. Crabtree's strongest asset is his blocking ability, which makes him a candidate to play both tight end and fullback since the Packers traded Quinn Johnson.
#42) Alex Green (RB) - The departure of Brandon Jackson left the Packers searching for a new 3rd down back. Green is trying to prove that he is not a one-hit wonder that benefited from playing in a pass first offense at Hawaii. If Green can improve his blocking ability he looks like the ideal candidate to be the new 3rd down back.
#41) Ryan Taylor (TE) - A few weeks ago it looked like Taylor was fighting for a practice squad spot and now he is fighting for the backup tight end spot behind starter Jermichael Finley. Much like Crabtree, Taylor blocks well so he has a chance to play tight end and fullback.
#40) Jarius Wynn (DE) - Defensive lineman in the 3-4 defense are asked to do all the dirty work (eat up blockers) without having free reign for any of the glory (sacks and tackles for a loss) most of the time. That doesn't diminish how important defensive lineman are in the 3-4 defense though. Look for Wynn to continue to do the dirty work along the defensive line for the Packers in 2011.
#39) Derek Sherrod (OT) - At 6'5" and 320 pounds, Sherrod is the left tackle of the future in Green Bay after struggling at left guard throughout the preseason. The coaching staff should not be surprised that Sherrod struggled as a left guard because he started 47 games (appearing in 49 games total) at left tackle at Mississippi State. Hopefully Sherrod will settle in at left tackle because the Packers are one Chad Clifton injury away from needing a new blindside protector for Aaron Rodgers.
#38) Frank Zombo (OLB) - Transitioned to playing outside linebacker in his rookie season in the NFL in 2010 after playing defensive end in college. Zombo had four sacks (including the only sack in Super Bowl XLV), six tackles for a loss, two forced fumbles, and seven quarterback hits. Unfortunately Zombo broke his shoulder blade in the preseason and his availability for 2011 is up in the air otherwise he would be ranked 10 spots higher.
#37) Marshall Newhouse (OT) - The 3rd tackle on the depth chart despite the fact that the Packer drafted Derek Sherrod in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft. Look for Newhouse to fill in at either tackle position as opposed to Sherrod if either Clifton or Bulaga get hurt in 2011.
#36) Randall Cobb (WR) - Although he might not be healthy enough to play in the season opener, when healthy, Cobb will help the Packers improve in the return game because they were horrible in 2010: 26th in kickoff return average and 22nd in punt return average. In fact the Packers have not had a kickoff return for a touchdown since Allen Rossum's 92-yard return against the Colts in November of 2000.
#35) Vic So'oto (OLB) - The pleasant surprise of the 2011 preseason for the Green Bay Packers played well against the Colts and the Chiefs to not only secure a roster spot but also serves as the primary backup spot at outside linebacker. I know it seems crazy but So’oto looks like the second coming of James Harrison.
#34) Andrew Quarless (TE) - A homeless man's Jermichael Finley has a ton of young competition (Williams, Crabtree, and Taylor) for playing time in 2011. Look for Quarless to improve his blocking or find his playing time severely limited.
#33) John Kuhn (FB/RB) - The only fullback on the 53-man roster is really more of a tweener fullback/running back then a true blocking fullback. Look for Kuhn to fill multiple roles (fullback, running back, and special teams) in 2011 to justify his three-year, $7.5 million contract extension.
#32) Jarrett Bush (CB/S) - Is the hardest non-starter on the roster to figure out. Bush plays great on special teams most of the time. Unfortunately on defense Bush is like temperamental14-year-old girl, sometimes he plays great on defense and sometimes he looks absolutely lost. Bush's special teams makes him worthy of a roster spot, the wild card is how he will do on defense in 2011.
#31) Brett Goode (LS) - Clean as the long snapper for the last three years (89 punts and 94 place kicks), hopefully Goode can continue that form in 2011 because you never want to hear the long snapper talked about because if his name comes up it means he made a horrible gaffe.
#30) Charlie Peprah (S) - Signed a two-year, $2 million contract ($150,000 guaranteed) in the off-season to give the Packers a quality back-up safety to Collins and Burnett.
#29) Matt Flynn (QB) - At some point Flynn will be an NFL starter but for all the praise he got after his performance against the Patriots with Rodgers sidelined with a concussion at the end of last season, Flynn is still a bit of an unknown commodity. Hopefully Flynn will not get any extended looks in 2011 besides moping up in garbage time because that would mean Rodgers was seriously injured again.
#28) Howard Green (DE/DT) - Big Sexy of the defensive line will be called upon often to play in 2011 because he is the primary back-up at both defensive end and defensive tackle.
#27) Mason Crosby (K) - Moving the kickoff to the 35-yard line will help Crosby but that doesn't mean he is worth the five-year, $14.75 million deal ($3 million guaranteed) he signed after the lockout was lifted. Compare that deal to the four-year, $12 million deal ($3.5 million guaranteed) that Ryan Longwell got from the Minnesota Vikings. I guess that is the going rate for a kicker but Crosby has only converted 78.1% of his FG attempts and 219 of 220 PATs. Crosby’s below average numbers are due in part to kicking in Green Bay but he is still an average kicker at best that is being paid like a borderline Pro Bowl kicker. Let’s compare recent Packer kickers. Crosby is better than Chris Jackie who converted 76.4% of his kicks in Green Bay from 1989 to 1996 but not better than Ryan Longwell who converted 80.9% of his kicks in Green Bay from 1997 to 2005. Crosby makes the kicks he should make (67 of 75 (89.3%) inside 40-yards and makes some of the longer kicks 26 of 37 (70.4%) from between 40 and 49-yards. Unfortunately Crosby is only 1 for 4 in game winning kicks as well (made a 42-yarder in his NFL debut but missed from 52, 38, and 53). There are only 32 starting place kickers in the NFL and Crosby has been below average since the Packers drafted him: 2007 - 26th (79.5%), 2008 - 28th (79.4%), 2009 - Tied for 25th (75.0%), and 2010 - 26th (78.6%).
#26) Mike Neal (DE) - Missed three games with an abdominal strain to start his NFL career in 2010. When Neal returned he registered three tackles, one sack, and one forced fumble. Unfortunately Neal suffered a season ending shoulder injury Week 5. Keep all of that in mind as you try to process that the Packers are expecting Neal to start at defensive end in place of the now departed Cullen Jenkins. Unfortunately Neal is not even a lock to be healthy enough to play in the opener so you can see why Big Sexy (Howard Green) is so important to the 2011 Green Bay Packers.
#25) T.J. Lang (OG) - After an early camp battle with rookie Derek Sherrod for the starting left guard spot, Lang beat out Sherrod with a good performance against the Arizona Cardinals earlier in the preseason. Hopefully we get the impressive 2009 version of T.J. Lang as opposed to the lackluster 2010 version.
#24) Ryan Grant (RB) - The Packers paid Grant a big roster bonus ($1.75 million) at the start of training camp and then re-negotiated Grant's contract so that he makes $1 million less in 2011 but the entire contract is guaranteed. Grant turns 29 during the 2011 season but Grant's body is not really that old because he has only played a few full NFL season. How well Grant and Starks play in 2011 will go a long way towards determining where Grant plays in 2012.
#23) James Jones (WR) - After catching 50 passes for 679 yards and five touchdowns as a borderline starting wide receiver for the Packers in 2010, it looked like Jones was going to break the bank to become a primary receiver for another team. Thanks to one of the deepest groups of free agent wide receivers in NFL history, Jones didn’t break the bank and ended up signing a three-year, $9.6 million deal ($1.5 million guaranteed) with the Packers. Jones needs to limit his drops in big situations because he dropped 10 balls in 2010, five that could have gone for TDs (against Dolphins, Jets, Giants, Eagles in the playoffs, and Steelers in Super Bowl XLV). If Jones limits his drops, he signed one of the most club friendly contracts ever.
#22) James Starks (RB) - Adopted a gluten free diet during the lockout and gained eight pounds to tip the scales at 225 pounds. After a number of impressive performances at the end of the 2010 season, look for Starks to pick up where he left off with an improved body physically to become the primary ball carrier by the end of the season.
#21) Tim Masthay (P) - Preformed very well in 2010: 13th in gross punt average (43.9 yards), 18th in net punt average (37.6 yards), and 16th in placing punts inside the 20 yard line (25 times). If Masthay kicks as well in 2011 as he did in 2010, look for the Packers to sign Masthay long-term.
#20) Donald Driver (WR) - The "starter" at wide receiver opposite Greg Jennings is just 41 yards shy of breaking James Lofton's teams record for most receiving yards in franchise history (9,656 yards). Kudos to Driver in advance of breaking Lofton's record, he is one of the classiest guys in franchise history. For everyone that is anointing Nelson and Jones as bigger threats than Driver, slow down because Driver has been defying the odds his entire career. I expect Driver to have a great bounce back season in 2011.
#19) Morgan Burnett (S) - After an lost rookie season to a knee injury, Burnett opens 2011 as the starter at safety opposite Nick Collins. As long as Burnett can stay healthy, he looks like the next great safety in the making in Green Bay.
#18) Erik Walden (OLB) - It is nice to have some consistency opposite Matthews with Walden because last season the Packers started four different guys (including playoffs) opposite Matthews: Robert Francois (1 game), Erik Walden (5 games), Brad Jones (5 games), and Frank Zombo (9 games).
#17) Jordy Nelson (WR) - For all the praise Nelson is receiving throughout the preseason let's not forget that he did not put up huge numbers in 2010 with 45 catches for 582 yards and two touchdowns. I know Nelson had a nice statistical performance in Super Bowl XLV with nine catches and 140 receiving yards but he dropped a sure touchdown in that game. Let's hope Nelson can have a breakout season in a contract year in 2011 to earn the big extension the Packers presumably already have in the works.
#16) Sam Shields (CB) - Allowed four TDs and 10 plays of 20-yards or more in 2010. Those stats don't seem great but Shields played much better then just the raw statistics. In fact, Peter King ranked Shields as the 100th best player in the NFL in 2010. Not too shabby for a guy that wasn't even drafted in the 2010 NFL Draft. The Packers lured Shields to Green Bay with a $7,500 signing bonus that might go down as the most cost effective signing bonus in franchise history.
#15) Ryan Pickett (DT) - Registered a tackle every seven snaps in 2010. Although Pickett will be a big part of the defensive line in 2011 if he stays healthy, look for him to regress statistically in 2011 because he is moving from defensive end to defensive tackle.
#14) Chad Clifton (OT) - In what might be Clifton's last season in Green Bay let's hope he can stay healthy for the whole season because an injury to Clifton might force the Packers to shuffle the entire offensive line (move Bulaga to left tackle, move Lang to right tackle, and insert a new player at left guard) because Newhouse and Sherrod don't look like starting left tackles in the NFL yet.
#13) A.J. Hawk (MLB) - The Business HJ of middle linebackers signed a five-year, $33.75 million contract ($10.95 million guaranteed) right before the start of the lockout. Hawk plays almost every down contributing 666 tackles, 33 passes defended, 15 tackles for a loss, 10 sacks, 8 INTs, 4 fumble recoveries, and 2 forced fumbles for his career. That seems great but Hawk was the 5th pick in the 2006 NFL Draft. When you are picked that high, you expect more explosive plays.
#12) Bryan Bulaga (OT) - The new school Mark Tauscher in Green Bay sans the glorious neck beard had an all-around impressive rookie season in 2010. In fact a very compelling argument could be made that without Bulaga in the fold, the Green Bay Packers would not have won Super Bowl XLV.
#11) Desmond Bishop (MLB) - Following former starting middle linebacker Nick Barnett's season ending injury, Bishop shed the "Mr. August" title making 150 tackles, 3 sacks, and a pick-six in the final 16 games of the season (including playoffs). The Packers rewarded Bishop with a four-year, $18 million extension. Having Bishop and Hawk in the fold made Nick Barnett expendable but it was still sad to see Barnett go after all he contributed in his Packer career (started 107 of 128 regular season games, registered 575 tackles, 15.5 sacks, and 9 interceptions. Barnett was healthy at the start of his career, he only missed two games in his first five years in the league but a torn ACL in 2008 (missed 8 games) and wrist injury in 2010 (missed 12 games) made him expendable. Barnett signed a three-year, $12 million deal with the Buffalo Bills ($6 guaranteed) after getting cut by the Packers. It will be interesting to track Bishop and Barnett the next few years to see if the Packers made the right decision going with the younger guy.
#10) Scott Wells (C) - Despite trying to replace Wells every year with a bigger guy, Wells (6'2" and 300 lbs) continues to anchor the offensive line. With Evan Dietrich-Smith as the only real back-up at guard or center, if Wells is lost for an extended period of time the Packers season could go south in no time.
#9) Jermichael Finley (TE) - Reminds me of Rickie Weeks. There is no denying his talent but Finley missed 15 games in three years and only finished one season healthy. Finley needs to prove he can stay healthy before the Packers invest a large amount of money in Finley since he is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent following the 2011 season.
#8) Nick Collins (S) - Has a knack for getting his hands on the ball, whether he catches it is another story. Although Collins had four interceptions in 2010 (remember the pick-six in Super Bowl XLV), that total could be even bigger because Collins dropped five interceptions in 2010.
#7) Charles Woodson (CB) - Has been an absolute turnover machine since joining the Packers. Woodson has 48 takeaways in five seasons in Green Bay (including playoffs). For all those that think Woodson is getting a little long in the tooth, let’s not forget that Woodson set season career highs in 2010 with 115 tackles and five forced fumbles. Woodson will play in the slot in 2011 to allow him to continue to play as a hybrid cornerback/safety.
#6) B.J. Raji (DE) - Lead all defensive lineman with 1,070 snaps in 2010 where he registered 6.5 sacks, 12 QB hits, and 12 QB pressures. The Packers moved Raji to defensive end to let him get after the quarterback more in 2011 so look for Raji to increase his sacks, QB hits, and QB pressures.
#5) Josh Sitton (OG) - With the influx of big, fast defensive tackles there has been a waterfall effect that impacted offensive guards. Six or seven years ago guard was not that highly paid of a position but the only way to counteract the influx of stud defensive tackles is an influx of big offensive guards. As a result the undisputed stud of the offensive line just signed a five-year extension with the team keeping Sitton in Green Bay through the 2016 season. The numbers of Sitton's extension have not been revealed but look for Sitton to justifiably be one of the highest guards in the NFL.
#4) Tramon Williams (CB) - In 2010 Williams only gave up one touchdown and six plays of 20-yards or more. The Packers rewarded Williams with a nice contract extension last year before a myriad of cornerbacks signed even more lucrative deals. As crazy as it sounds, Williams is the undisputed best cornerback on the roster (sorry Chuck) so if Williams continues to play as well has he did in 2010 the Packers might have to renegotiate the extension that Williams signed in 2010 sooner rather than later.
#3) Greg Jennings (WR) - The offense struggled to utilize Jennings and Finley while Finley was healthy for the first part of the 2010 season. The only positive thing about losing Finley last year was that Jennings thrived in Finley’s absence. The Packers will need to get Jennings and Finley to co-exist in 2011. If they can, the Packers will have the most explosive offense in the NFL.
#2) Clay Matthews (OLB) - In only two years in the NFL Matthews already registered 23.5 sacks. Very accomplished former outside linebacker and current outside linebacker coach Kevin Greene called Matthews the most complete OLB he's ever seen. I could say more but Clay's numbers and Greene's quote says it all.
#1) Aaron Rodgers (QB) - I mean this in all sincerity, if Rodgers plays anything like he did against the Falcons in the playoffs last year he is going to start collecting Lombardi and MVP trophies yearly for the next decade.
Check back Wednesday for more Packer coverage ahead of their season opener Thursday in Green Bay against the Saints that pits the last two Super Bowl champs.
Showing posts with label Shawn Slocum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Shawn Slocum. Show all posts
Sunday, September 4, 2011
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Week 12 of 2010 - Packers/Falcons Review
Everybody likes to talk about home field advantage but very few teams actually have a home field advantage. Most NFL teams besides the Miami Dolphins would rather play at home than on the road, but that does not always translate into a better record at home versus on the road.
That is not the case for the Atlanta Falcons; they truly have a home field advantage. Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is 18-1 at home (only loss was to Denver in 2008 when he was a rookie) and head coach Mike Smith is 18-3 at home. The aforementioned numbers were not a promising sign for the Green Bay Packers when they visited the Georgia Dome to play the Atlanta Falcons in Week 12 of the 2010 NFL season.
Before we get to the actual game, Fox likes to give a few “nuggets of information” about each team right before kickoff. Here are the Fox nuggets for the Packers:
- Head coach Mike McCarthy is 45-29 as head coach of the Packers.
- The Packers currently rank 13th in total offense
- The Packers currently rank 12th in total defense
- The Packers currently have the best plus/minus ratio in the NFL with a +106 point scoring margin
As a quick side note, I charted the first half of the game for Football Outsiders, so I will have more detailed thoughts on the first half than the second half most likely.
Onto the game. The Falcons got the ball to start the game and put together a balanced drive with a nice mix of play calls. During the Falcons' opening drive Fox flashed some very telling stats titled "How Falcons Win". Fox pointed out that the Falcons have a +10 turnover ratio, 21 drives lasting 5 minutes or longer (most in the NFL), and average only 2 offensive penalties a game (2nd best in the NFL).
The Falcons did their best to hit that penalty average on the opening drive when starting middle linebacker Desmond Bishop drew a late hit call on offensive lineman Harvey Dahl. The 15-yard penalty put Atlanta in a 3rd and 20 situation at the Green Bay 34-yard line instead of 3rd and 5 at the Green Bay 19-yard line. That was a big difference because the Falcons picked up 14 yards on the next play that would have kept the drive alive without the personal foul. Instead, the Falcons had to settle for a Matt Bryant field goal to take a 3-0 lead.
On the ensuing kickoff, Packers’ nickel cornerback and return man Sam Shields decided to return the kick despite the fact that he received it 5-yards deep in the end zone. Shields only got back to the 10-yard line...probably should have settled for the touch back Sammy.
Following the short return, the Packers went three-and-out on a couple sneaks by quarterback Aaron Rodgers and a 1-yard run by running back Brandon Jackson. Rodgers looked to have picked up the first down on a third-down scramble, but slid before the first down. I can't get mad at Rodgers for avoiding the hit in that situation, smarter to punt than to take a big shot considering Rodgers has already suffered a concussion this year.
Onto the punt, special teams maven Jarrett Bush downed the punt despite a half dozen other Packers standing around the ball. Bush stepped out of bounds, so by rule he can't be the first one to touch the ball when he comes back in bounds. As a result the Packers were penalized 5 unnecessary yards. There are much bigger issues on special teams than 5-yard penalties, but little mistakes like that continue to keep Packers’ special teams coach Shawn Slocum on the hot seat.
The Packers didn't hold the ball on offense long enough for Fox to flash the "How Packers Win" stats...not a good sign. Fox highlighted the Packers’ +8 turnover ratio, 87 points off takeaways (best in NFL), and 18 points off giveaways (tied for 2nd best in NFL).
Back to the game. After two runs by the Falcons, undrafted rookie outside linebacker Frank Zombo beat Falcons left tackle Sam Baker for an easy sack of quarterback Matt Ryan on 3rd down to force the Falcons to punt.
For the second special teams play in a row the Packers were penalized. This time it was an illegal block in the back by former Atlanta Falcons practice squad member and current Packers back-up running back Dimitri Nance. See what I mean about the little things on special teams?
The Packers started running a modified no-huddle offense on their next drive. Thanks to a 15-yard facemask penalty, the Packers moved into Falcons’ territory in short order. After a throw to wide receiver Donald Driver for a first down, Rodgers picked up another first down with his feet but was forced to use a timeout facing a 1st and 10 at the Falcons' 13-yard line.
Coming out of the timeout the Packers picked up a few more yards on the ground with Jackson. Facing a 2nd and 6 at the Falcons' 9-yard line, the Packers went with an empty backfield (4 receivers and 1 tight end) but Rodgers decided to pull it down and run again. Unfortunately Rodgers came up a yard short of the first down.
On 3rd and 1, the Packers gave the ball to Nance hoping he could punish his former employer, but Nance could not pick it up. As a result, the Packers were forced to attempt a short field goal. If the Packers had a decent running game they might have gone for it on 4th and 1, unfortunately the Packers are horrible in short yardages situations as we will reinforce soon. Packers place kicker Mason Crosby made the chip shot field goal to tie the game 3-3.
The Packers forced a three-and-out on the Falcons' next possession. Following the punt, the Packers got the ball back at their own 15-yard line. As the game came back from commercial, we saw the familiar sight of cornerback Pat Lee on the training table. Not to beat a dead horse, but when has Pat Lee been health for any prolonged stretch for the Packers?
Back to the game. The Packers ran a short slant to seldom-used 5th wide receiver Brett Swain that went for a 31-yard gain. A 15-yard personal foul got tacked on (3rd of the game for the Falcons already) at the end of the play because Swain was hit out of bounds.
Coming off the big gain, the Packers stuck with the 4 and 5 wide receiver set. That scheme allowed the Packers to dink and dunk their way down into the red zone against the Falcons suspect secondary.
While in the red zone the Packers called consecutive wide receiver hitches to wide receiver James Jones. Avid readers of the blog know I have a love/hate relationship with Jones. Based on the last two plays we are currently in the love phase. Jones' second catch netted the Packers a 1st and goal at the Falcons' 2-yard line.
On first down the Packers finally ran the U-70 package where backup offensive lineman T.J. Lang is inserted as the 6th offensive lineman. McCarthy called a play action pass on the play that resulted in a miscommunication between the fullback Quinn Johnson and Rodgers. It looked like the pass was intended for tight end Andrew Quarless but Johnson got in the way. That play is a great example of the injury problems the Packers have had to deal with in 2010. Instead of throwing a jump ball to tight end Jermichael Finley in that situation, the Packers were forced to use guys like Quarless and Johnson in the red zone.
The Packers spread out the defense with 5 wide receivers (if you count Quarless as a wide receiver in the slot) on 2nd and goal from the Falcons' 2-yard line. Rodgers tried to sneak it up the middle but was stuffed at the Falcons' 1-yard line. On 3rd and goal from the Falcons' 1-yard line Rodgers tried to sneak it again but fumbled the ball.
If the fumble was not bad enough, the ball somehow ended up into the end zone where the Falcons recovered the ball for a touchback. Oddly enough that was Rodgers' first fumble of the season, which could not have come at a worse time. Fox focused their cameras on McCarthy after the fumble. The only thing McCarthy said was "wow" in a nonchalant manner. That’s it McCarthy? Thanks for the fire and emotion, way to keep the team fired up.
I know this sounds dumb, but in a weird way the Packers have a better shot at scoring a touchdown if they are facing a first and goal from the 10-yard line as opposed to the 2-yard line. I know this seems counter intuitive but the playbook shrinks at the 1-yard line because the Packers cannot pick up a yard or two on the ground to save their life. The Packers have better personnel at wide receiver/tight end as opposed to running back/full back. Furthermore, the Packers have a ton of plays that work from longer distances and very few that work in short yardage situations. As a result, the short yardage situations have been the Achilles heel of the Packers the last few years.
Sorry for that mini jag, following the Rodgers fumble the Falcons took over at their own 20-yard line. The Falcons moved the ball well; mixing in some runs and passes to get the ball into Packers’ territory with a little less than 5 minutes remaining in the half.
After a nice sack by Packers defensive end Cullen Jenkins and an incomplete pass, the Falcons faced a 3rd and 19 from their own 48-yard line. In what looked like a dump off for only a few yards, Falcons fullback Ovie Mughelli eluded both cornerback Charles Woodson and safety Charlie Peprah to set-up a 4th and 3 at the Packers' 36-yard line.
Instead of kicking a field goal, Falcons head coach Mike Smith decided to go for it. Matt Ryan surveyed the field and found all world tight end Tony Gonzalez for an apparent first down. McCarthy had 30 seconds to review the "catch" but decided to let the play stand. Why not challenge the play McCarthy? After the game McCarthy said that he did not have enough information at the time. Really? I have more information at home on my couch watching the game on television than you do as the head coach of the team I am watching? If that is the case then the NFL needs to make some changes because I should not have more information with a beer in my hand than the head coach. Just to beat the dead horse, McCarthy should have at least thrown the challenge flag based on how big of a conversion that was at that point in the game. Even if McCarthy lost the challenge, he still would have had one for the rest of the game.
Following the boneheaded non-challenge by McCarthy, the Falcons ran for a short gain to get to the two-minute warning with the game tied 3-3. Coming out of the two-minute warning the Falcons went back to Gonzalez for a big gain to set-up a 1st and goal from the 5-yard line.
Following two short runs, the Falcons faced a 3rd and goal from the 4-yard line coming out of a timeout with 12 second remaining in the half. The Falcons obviously threw, and guess who caught the ball? Yeah, Gonzalez was wide open for an easy touchdown. That catch allowed Gonzalez to pass Jimmy Smith and move into 15th place on the NFL's career receiving list. I am not a defensive genius like Dom Capers but I think you put at least one guy on the best tight end to ever play in the NFL. Much like Bubba Franks back in the day for the Packers, whenever the Falcons are in a goal line situation there should always be at least one defender on Gonzalez. Last year Charles Woodson shadowed tight end Jason Witten in the red zone and was a big reason why the Packers beat the Cowboys. Why not do the same thing against the Flacons?
Much like I did last week in my recap of the Packers/Vikings game in the Humpty Dumpty Dome, let's play the "what if" game for second. What if the Packers scored a touchdown instead of fumbling the ball? The Packers would be up 10-3 and worst-case scenario they are tied 10-10 at halftime. Even better, let the fumble stand but what if McCarthy challenges the Gonzalez "catch" on 4th down? The Packers get the ball back tied 3-3 and most likely come away with some points. If not, the Packers bleed the clock and go into the half tied 3-3. Instead the Packers trailed 10-3 at half against possibly the best team in the NFC. Add in that Atlanta is a superb home team and you can see why the Packers cannot afford the aforementioned errors (Rodgers’ fumble and McCarthy’s failure to challenge) if they expect to win games.
The half time stats look like this according to Fox:
- Packers: 4 possessions, 28 rushing yards, 2 plays over 20-yards, and 13:07 time of possession.
- Falcons: 4 possessions, 57 rushing yards, 1 play over 20-yards, and 16:53 time of possession.
Why flash the rushing stats Fox? You know this is the match up of possibly the two best young quarterbacks in the NFL right? Again I am not a television executive but I think you want to highlight Aaron Rodgers v. Matt Ryan, not Brandon Jackson v. Michael Turner.
Shields opened the second half with a decent return. The Packers used the empty backfield to start the second half. Instead of sticking with what works, McCarthy tried to run on second and short but Jackson lost five yards. On 3rd down the Packers failed to pick up enough yards for the first down and were forced to punt. Let's second-guess the play calling a little bit while we are here. 2nd and 2 turned into 3rd and 7 because McCarthy called a run. Can we officially give up on the run or do you need more evidence?
When the Falcons got the ball back the Packers gave up a long run on first down. After picking up a first down, the Falcons failed to move the ball and were forced to punt.
Following a Tramon Williams fair catch, the Packers started their next offensive drive in the 5 wide receiver set and picked up 9 yards. On second down the Packers ran the ball for no gain. Why do you continue to call running plays that result in a loss of yards? McCarthy, when your team is good at throwing the ball and you are playing in a dome…just throw the ball. On 3rd and 1 McCarthy calls a flea-flicker that goes for a big gain to wide receiver Greg Jennings. That might be the first play call that I have agreed with in a while.
Following the big gain the Packers spread out the defense and Rodgers picked up yards with his feet. As Rodgers went to the ground he took a pretty big hit. Probably a legal hit but I don't get why a quarterbacks slide if they are going to get hit anyways. Don’t get me wrong, the NFL treats quarterbacks like porcelain dolls on every play besides when the quarterback slides. That is part of the reason why the defenseless quarterback rule still remains a mystery to me.
Following a bad pass by Rodgers, the Packers faced a 3rd and 1 at the Falcons' 29-yard line. The Packers lined up in the I-Formation with 2 tight ends and 1 wide receiver. That is a formation that looks like an obvious running formation considering the personnel, especially when you factor in the down and distance. Instead, the Packers went deep and Rodgers completed a perfect pass to wide receiver Jordy Nelson. As the last play shows, the Packers are 100 times better throwing the ball than running the ball...way to have a pair on that play call McCarthy.
The Packers capped off the drive with an empty backfield for a designed quarterback sneak. Again great play-call McCarthy. I give McCarthy credit for learning from his mistakes in the first half. Following the extra point, the game is tied at 10-10.
When the Falcons got the ball back they were penalized for a false start. The Falcons followed that play call with an inside hand off, seemed like a wasted play call ala former Packer head coach Mike Sherman to me. The Falcons picked up a few yards the next play on what looked like a blatant hold on outside linebacker Clay Matthews. The Packers followed that up by burning a timeout for having too many men on the field. Wasting a timeout there is inexcusable...two steps forward and two steps back for McCarthy.
On 3rd and 9 the Falcons picked up the first down with Jason Snelling taking a dump off and beating three Packer linebackers for a first down. Following a short run by Turner, the Falcons picked up a few yards to set-up a 3rd and 6 at their own 35-yard line. The Falcons picked up the first down on an easy pass and catch between Ryan and White.
On the next play the Falcons ran a play action tight end dump off. The Packers sold out on the run and left Gonzalez wide open. The Packers got greedy on that play because if they stayed in their lanes, Gonzalez would have been covered. On the following play the Falcons shoved the ball down the Packers throat for a big gain on the ground. Turner is hard to tackle but the Packers have to do a better job than that at tackling.
A few more positive runs netted the Falcons a 1st and goal from the Packers' 1-yard line. Despite having a formidable backfield the Packers did a nice job on 1st and 2nd down to keep the Falcons out of the end zone. On 3rd down the Falcons went to Gonzalez but he was ruled short of the end zone on the play. Smith challenged the play but the was confirmed by the replay. I am not too sure why Smith challenged the play, there was a visible bobble on the initial replay. On 4th and inches the Falcons went for it and walked into the end zone. That play shows the difference between the Packers and the Falcons. One team can pick up a yard in a pinch (Falcons) while the other (Packers) cannot pick up a yard to save their life. Sometimes it is the little things that determine whether a team is a playoff team or a Super Bowl champion, unfortunately the Packers really struggle in short yardage situations which might come back to haunt them this year.
Quick digression. For my money, Turner is exactly the type of running back the Packers need. Turner is hard to tackle and falls forward almost every time he touches the ball. When Turner was a free agent after the 2007 season the Packers were not yet completely sold on Ryan Grant. Ultimately the Packers caved amid the Favre drama and signed Grant to a lucrative four-year contract. A few months earlier the Packers could have had Michael Turner for much less than they paid Grant because the Falcons ultimately signed Turner to a six-year, $34.5 million contract with $15 million guaranteed. The Packers would rather have Turner than Grant at this point. With so many teams transitioning to a two running back scheme, it still boogles my mind that Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson didn't make a run (no pun intended) at Turner. Obviously with Grant hurt this year it seems easy to say, but a backfield of Turner and Grant for the last three years would have given the Packers possibility the best one-two punch at running back in the NFL.
On the kickoff return following the Falcons’ touchdown the Packers were flagged for 15-yard facemask personal foul. I guess I don't understand the facemask rule because kick returner Sam Shields should be able to stiff-arm a player right? That was a shaky call at best in my opinion. The only thing that makes sense is that Shields was going out of bounds so he did not need to stiff-arm the defender, but we are in fact still playing tackle football in the NFL not two-hand tag right?
Following the penalty the Packers came out in the 5 wide receiver set to pick up an easy first down followed by another nice run by Rodgers. The Packers got greedy and went 5 wide again looking to run another quarterback sneak but the Falcons sniffed it out and stopped it for no gain. In case you were wondering how bad the Packers are at running the ball, with 12 minutes left in the game Rodgers was the only Packer with positive rushing yards on the day.
The Packers ran a screen for Kuhn to net 9 yards, which set up a 3rd and 1. The Packers actually picked up a first down on the ground with Jackson to move the ball to mid-field. The Packers ran Jackson again for a few yards. Following a throw to Jennings, the Packers faced another 3rd and 1. Instead of going heavy the Packers spread out the Falcons and Rodgers took a shot down field that fell incomplete.
Instead of punting, McCarthy decided to go for it on 4th and 1 at the Falcons' 41-yard line. The Falcons blitzed, which forced Rodgers to unload it a little faster than he wanted. Rodgers missed wide receiver Donald Driver by inches, which forced a turnover on downs giving the Falcons the ball back up 17-10 with 9 minutes remaining.
I like that McCarthy took a chance on that play. I might have kept more blockers in to protect Rodgers on 4th down, but I have no problem with the Packers going for it in that situation.
The Falcons moved the ball a little bit when they got the ball back but the Packers defense stopped the Falcons, which gave the Packers offense the ball back down a touchdown with 6 minutes remaining. On first down the Packers ran the ball. That makes no sense to me, not only does it get the clock rolling but also running is not the Packers' strength.
Following the run, Rodgers hit Quarless on consecutive plays to move the Packers to their own 40-yard line. Following an 8-yard run by Jackson, Rodgers picked up the first down on a scramble to set up a 1st and 10 from the Falcons' 45-yard line. Rodgers lucked out not getting intercepted on the next play, but made up for it by hitting Jennings for another first down.
Rodgers dumped off the ball to Jackson for another nice gain. Rodgers found Jones in the back of the end zone on the next play but Jones was unable to get both his feet down in the end zone. Brian Billick talked about a rule change that the NFL recently made. Under the old rule, if a player was "forced out of bounds" without getting both feet down it could still be called a catch. I generally think the NFL is making rules more complicated, but this is one instance where the NFL simplified things. The rule now is that the player has to get both feet down in bounds or it is not a catch...smart change.
On 3rd and 1 the ball was snapped before Rodgers expected the ball. Rodgers threw the ball incomplete setting up a 4th and 1 at the Falcons' 21-yard line. It looked like the Packers didn't get off the snap in time to beat the play clock but it turned out that the Falcons jumped off sides. Either way, Rodgers took full advantage of the free play and threw a shovel pass to Jones that got the Packers a 1st and goal from the Falcons' 3-yard line. On the next play Rodgers was stripped but luckily fell on the ball to get the game to the two-minute warning.
On 2nd and goal from the Falcons' 6-yard line Rodgers threw behind Jones to avoid a blitz. On 3rd down the Packers called a naked running back screen. That play call makes absolutely no sense to me. The Packers should run more screen, but not down by the goal line with the game on the line.
On 4th and goal from the Falcons' 6-yard line rookie right tackle Bryan Bulaga got called for a false start. Former Baltimore Ravens head coach and current Fox commentator Brian Billick made the point I described above about how more room might actually be better for the Packers. On 4th and goal from the Falcons' 11-yard line Rodgers took the snap, bought time with his feet and uncorked an absolute laser to Nelson for a touchdown. Following the extra point the Packers tied the game up 17-17 with 56 seconds remaining in he game.
On the ensuing kickoff the Packers special teams basically gave the game away. Not only did they surrender a 40-yard return, but also a 15-yard facemask penalty by back-up linebacker Matt Wilhelm allowed the Falcons to take over at midfield with one timeout. Let me pile on a little more to the point I made above about special teams coach Shawn Slocum. I understand that there have been some injuries to players on special teams, but how do the Packers surrender such a big play on special teams with less than a minute left and Slocum still has a job?
On 1st down the Packers not only gave up a 9-yard catch to Roddy White, but they let White get out of bounds to stop the clock. On 2nd down the Falcons picked up the first down through the air but the clock continued to roll.
On the next play the Packers brought an all-out-blitz but still gave up an easy reception to the sidelines for a 4-yard gain. Again the Packers let the Falcons use the sideline to set-up a 3rd and 3 at the Packers' 32-yard line with 18 second remaining. The Falcons ran a roll out on 3rd down that almost resulted in a sack until Ryan threw it away.
McCarthy used his last timeout right before the field goal attempt. Why? The NFL is a copycat league so everyone does that. Okay fine but the bigger issue is that the Packers no longer had a way to stop the clock when they get the ball back. As we will see soon that doesn't matter for this game, but McCarthy should keep that in mind down the road because every second counts and those timeouts can always be used better than to “ice the kicker”.
On the actual field goal attempt following timeout, Bryant hit the ball perfectly to put the Falcons up 20-17. That left the Packers with 9 seconds to pull off a miracle. The ensuing kickoff wasted 7 seconds, leaving only 2 seconds on the clock for the Packers. On the final play of the game Jennings picked up a bunch of yards but his flip to Driver to keep the play alive went out of bounds. 68,204 were treated to a possible NFC Championship preview that saw the Falcons continue to assert their home field advantage. Ryan moved his home record to 19-1.
As a result the Packers fell 20-17. Somehow this goes as a loss for Rodgers. Yes Rodgers did fumble at the goal line, but that is because the Packers are horrible at picking up short yardage so they put their franchise quarterback in harms way on 3rd and 1. If the Packers running backs could do anything in short yardage situations, they wouldn’t need their franchise quarterback to sneak in those situations. Instead, the Packers could pound it in with an actual NFL running back. Unfortunately Brandon Jackson and Dimitri Nance are not starting caliber NFL running backs at this point.
For the day Rodgers was 26 for 34 for 344 yards and 1 touchdown for a 114.5 quarterback rating. Rodgers also picked up 51 yards on the ground and 1 touchdown (13th of his career and most in the NFL since 2008). As I have argued many times over, Rodgers’ game is suited for indoor games. Rodgers has averaged 288.7 yards passing over nine dome starts.
Ryan was 24 of 28 for 197 yards and 1 touchdown for a passer rating of 108. Ryan also notched his 12th fourth quarter comeback. I hate the Matty Ice nickname but 12 fourth quarter comebacks in less than three years is pretty impressive.
Coming into their match-up the Packers lead the all-time series 12-11. As we all know by now, the Falcons tied up the series and gave us a potential NFC Championship preview. The loss to Atlanta also marks the Packers 4th loss by three points this season…a disturbing trend that is going to have to change if the Packers want to make a legitimate playoff push. It also pushed Mike McCarthy’s record to 5-14 and Aaron Rodgers’ record to 2-12 in games decided by four points or fewer.
Green Bay Packer general manager Ted Thompson placed two more players on injured reserve, moving the season total up to lucky 13. Recently signed reserve tight end Spencer Havner was activated for the first time since rejoining the Packers. Havner aggravated his left hamstring against the Falcons, which will see him miss the rest of the 2010 season. Since Havner was placed on injured reserve, he only made one appearance for the Packers in 2010.
Back-up middle linebacker Brandon Chillar was lost for the season with a left shoulder injury. Chillar has played hurt for almost the entire season. With the emergence of Bishop the loss of Chillar is not that bad unless the Packers lose Bishop or Hawk before the end of 2010…knock on wood please because I might have just put the hex on them.
Robert Francois (LB) and Josh Gordy (CB) were signed to the active roster from the practice squad in place of Havner and Chillar. Gordy is a 5’11”, 185-pound rookie that has Sam Shields like speed. Gordy ran a 4.35 second 40-yard dash and looks like another raw cornerback that the Packers can use on special teams. Francois is making s repeat appearance on the active roster. Francois is a 6’2”, 255-pound linebacker that has been with the Packers at various points over the last two years. Much like Gordy, François looks like a special teams player at best. Terrance Smith (WR) and Curtis Young (LB/DE) replaced Francois and Gordy on the practice squad. Not much to say about Smith or Young so let’s move on.
With all of the backup moves out of the way, let’s move on to the Tramon Williams extension. Williams’ extension has been covered a number of different places with Andrew Brandt at the National Football Post giving a great insiders perspective but that has never stopped me from adding my take. Williams got a much-deserved four-year, $33 million extension with $11 million in guarantees. The deal averages $8.25 million per year (14th among all NFL cornerbacks), which makes Williams the 4th highest paid Packers behind Aaron Rodgers, Charles Woodson, and Greg Jennings. In a bit of an oddity, Williams signed the deal last week but was not announced until earlier this week. The Packers had to do something because Williams was playing on a one-year, $3.043 million tender (36th among NFL cornerbacks) that would have allowed him to become a free agent after the 2010 season. Here is an annual breakdown of the deal:
- 2010: $6 million signing bonus, $14.4 million base salary but only makes $5.1 million this year because the salary is pro-rated over 17 weeks ($11.1 million) = 11.1 million maximum
- 2011: $1 million base salary, $2.2 million roster bonus (due 30th day of the league year), $300,000 game day bonus ($18,750 for each game he is on the 45-man active roster), and $100,000 workout bonus = $3.6 million maximum
- 2012: $2.3 million base salary, $2.5 million roster bonus (due 15th day of the league year), $300,000 game day bonus ($18,750 for each game he is on the 45-man active roster), and $300,000 workout bonus = $5.4 million maximum
- 2013: $5.9 million base salary, $300,000 game day bonus ($18,750 for each game he is on the 45-man active roster), and $300,000 workout bonus = $6.5 million maximum
- 2014: $6.9 million base salary, $300,000 game day bonus ($18,750 for each game he is on the 45-man active roster), and $300,000 workout bonus = $7.5 million maximum
Finally Williams has a $250,000 escalator in his contract if he makes the Pro Bowl in 2011 through 2014, which I expect him to earn in 2011.
Was the extension worth it? Based on Williams’s performance in 2010 I would say so. Williams has not allowed a touchdown this year, amassed only 1 penalty, has 4 interceptions, and has defended 16 passes. As stated above, Williams will be the 14th highest paid cornerback in the NFL. Williams is on the cusp of becoming one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL so only being the 14th highest paid cornerback in the NFL seems like a good deal.
When Williams’s extension expires, he will only be 31. Odds are, the Packers and Williams will renegotiate that deal even before that because there is not any guaranteed money in the last two years of the deal.
Williams probably could have gotten more money if he waited till after the season but Williams always wanted to stay in Green Bay (who can blame him) and has a chance to renegotiate starting in 2013 because he will no longer have any guarantees for 2013 and 2014.
My ratings for each move on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the best possible score:
- Havner placed on IR: 3 (why did TT resign him?)
- Chillar placed on IR: 7 (let him get healthy for 2011)
- Gordy added to 53-man roster: 4 (should he play in front of Underwood?)
- Francois added to 53-man roster: 4 (don’t cover up the long snapper ever again)
- Smith added to the practice squad: 1 (no need for a 6th receiver)
- Young added to the practice squad: 3 (more combo DE/OLB are a good thing for 3-4 teams like the Packers)
- Williams Extension: 10 (pay the man his money…he earned it)
That is not the case for the Atlanta Falcons; they truly have a home field advantage. Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is 18-1 at home (only loss was to Denver in 2008 when he was a rookie) and head coach Mike Smith is 18-3 at home. The aforementioned numbers were not a promising sign for the Green Bay Packers when they visited the Georgia Dome to play the Atlanta Falcons in Week 12 of the 2010 NFL season.
Before we get to the actual game, Fox likes to give a few “nuggets of information” about each team right before kickoff. Here are the Fox nuggets for the Packers:
- Head coach Mike McCarthy is 45-29 as head coach of the Packers.
- The Packers currently rank 13th in total offense
- The Packers currently rank 12th in total defense
- The Packers currently have the best plus/minus ratio in the NFL with a +106 point scoring margin
As a quick side note, I charted the first half of the game for Football Outsiders, so I will have more detailed thoughts on the first half than the second half most likely.
Onto the game. The Falcons got the ball to start the game and put together a balanced drive with a nice mix of play calls. During the Falcons' opening drive Fox flashed some very telling stats titled "How Falcons Win". Fox pointed out that the Falcons have a +10 turnover ratio, 21 drives lasting 5 minutes or longer (most in the NFL), and average only 2 offensive penalties a game (2nd best in the NFL).
The Falcons did their best to hit that penalty average on the opening drive when starting middle linebacker Desmond Bishop drew a late hit call on offensive lineman Harvey Dahl. The 15-yard penalty put Atlanta in a 3rd and 20 situation at the Green Bay 34-yard line instead of 3rd and 5 at the Green Bay 19-yard line. That was a big difference because the Falcons picked up 14 yards on the next play that would have kept the drive alive without the personal foul. Instead, the Falcons had to settle for a Matt Bryant field goal to take a 3-0 lead.
On the ensuing kickoff, Packers’ nickel cornerback and return man Sam Shields decided to return the kick despite the fact that he received it 5-yards deep in the end zone. Shields only got back to the 10-yard line...probably should have settled for the touch back Sammy.
Following the short return, the Packers went three-and-out on a couple sneaks by quarterback Aaron Rodgers and a 1-yard run by running back Brandon Jackson. Rodgers looked to have picked up the first down on a third-down scramble, but slid before the first down. I can't get mad at Rodgers for avoiding the hit in that situation, smarter to punt than to take a big shot considering Rodgers has already suffered a concussion this year.
Onto the punt, special teams maven Jarrett Bush downed the punt despite a half dozen other Packers standing around the ball. Bush stepped out of bounds, so by rule he can't be the first one to touch the ball when he comes back in bounds. As a result the Packers were penalized 5 unnecessary yards. There are much bigger issues on special teams than 5-yard penalties, but little mistakes like that continue to keep Packers’ special teams coach Shawn Slocum on the hot seat.
The Packers didn't hold the ball on offense long enough for Fox to flash the "How Packers Win" stats...not a good sign. Fox highlighted the Packers’ +8 turnover ratio, 87 points off takeaways (best in NFL), and 18 points off giveaways (tied for 2nd best in NFL).
Back to the game. After two runs by the Falcons, undrafted rookie outside linebacker Frank Zombo beat Falcons left tackle Sam Baker for an easy sack of quarterback Matt Ryan on 3rd down to force the Falcons to punt.
For the second special teams play in a row the Packers were penalized. This time it was an illegal block in the back by former Atlanta Falcons practice squad member and current Packers back-up running back Dimitri Nance. See what I mean about the little things on special teams?
The Packers started running a modified no-huddle offense on their next drive. Thanks to a 15-yard facemask penalty, the Packers moved into Falcons’ territory in short order. After a throw to wide receiver Donald Driver for a first down, Rodgers picked up another first down with his feet but was forced to use a timeout facing a 1st and 10 at the Falcons' 13-yard line.
Coming out of the timeout the Packers picked up a few more yards on the ground with Jackson. Facing a 2nd and 6 at the Falcons' 9-yard line, the Packers went with an empty backfield (4 receivers and 1 tight end) but Rodgers decided to pull it down and run again. Unfortunately Rodgers came up a yard short of the first down.
On 3rd and 1, the Packers gave the ball to Nance hoping he could punish his former employer, but Nance could not pick it up. As a result, the Packers were forced to attempt a short field goal. If the Packers had a decent running game they might have gone for it on 4th and 1, unfortunately the Packers are horrible in short yardages situations as we will reinforce soon. Packers place kicker Mason Crosby made the chip shot field goal to tie the game 3-3.
The Packers forced a three-and-out on the Falcons' next possession. Following the punt, the Packers got the ball back at their own 15-yard line. As the game came back from commercial, we saw the familiar sight of cornerback Pat Lee on the training table. Not to beat a dead horse, but when has Pat Lee been health for any prolonged stretch for the Packers?
Back to the game. The Packers ran a short slant to seldom-used 5th wide receiver Brett Swain that went for a 31-yard gain. A 15-yard personal foul got tacked on (3rd of the game for the Falcons already) at the end of the play because Swain was hit out of bounds.
Coming off the big gain, the Packers stuck with the 4 and 5 wide receiver set. That scheme allowed the Packers to dink and dunk their way down into the red zone against the Falcons suspect secondary.
While in the red zone the Packers called consecutive wide receiver hitches to wide receiver James Jones. Avid readers of the blog know I have a love/hate relationship with Jones. Based on the last two plays we are currently in the love phase. Jones' second catch netted the Packers a 1st and goal at the Falcons' 2-yard line.
On first down the Packers finally ran the U-70 package where backup offensive lineman T.J. Lang is inserted as the 6th offensive lineman. McCarthy called a play action pass on the play that resulted in a miscommunication between the fullback Quinn Johnson and Rodgers. It looked like the pass was intended for tight end Andrew Quarless but Johnson got in the way. That play is a great example of the injury problems the Packers have had to deal with in 2010. Instead of throwing a jump ball to tight end Jermichael Finley in that situation, the Packers were forced to use guys like Quarless and Johnson in the red zone.
The Packers spread out the defense with 5 wide receivers (if you count Quarless as a wide receiver in the slot) on 2nd and goal from the Falcons' 2-yard line. Rodgers tried to sneak it up the middle but was stuffed at the Falcons' 1-yard line. On 3rd and goal from the Falcons' 1-yard line Rodgers tried to sneak it again but fumbled the ball.
If the fumble was not bad enough, the ball somehow ended up into the end zone where the Falcons recovered the ball for a touchback. Oddly enough that was Rodgers' first fumble of the season, which could not have come at a worse time. Fox focused their cameras on McCarthy after the fumble. The only thing McCarthy said was "wow" in a nonchalant manner. That’s it McCarthy? Thanks for the fire and emotion, way to keep the team fired up.
I know this sounds dumb, but in a weird way the Packers have a better shot at scoring a touchdown if they are facing a first and goal from the 10-yard line as opposed to the 2-yard line. I know this seems counter intuitive but the playbook shrinks at the 1-yard line because the Packers cannot pick up a yard or two on the ground to save their life. The Packers have better personnel at wide receiver/tight end as opposed to running back/full back. Furthermore, the Packers have a ton of plays that work from longer distances and very few that work in short yardage situations. As a result, the short yardage situations have been the Achilles heel of the Packers the last few years.
Sorry for that mini jag, following the Rodgers fumble the Falcons took over at their own 20-yard line. The Falcons moved the ball well; mixing in some runs and passes to get the ball into Packers’ territory with a little less than 5 minutes remaining in the half.
After a nice sack by Packers defensive end Cullen Jenkins and an incomplete pass, the Falcons faced a 3rd and 19 from their own 48-yard line. In what looked like a dump off for only a few yards, Falcons fullback Ovie Mughelli eluded both cornerback Charles Woodson and safety Charlie Peprah to set-up a 4th and 3 at the Packers' 36-yard line.
Instead of kicking a field goal, Falcons head coach Mike Smith decided to go for it. Matt Ryan surveyed the field and found all world tight end Tony Gonzalez for an apparent first down. McCarthy had 30 seconds to review the "catch" but decided to let the play stand. Why not challenge the play McCarthy? After the game McCarthy said that he did not have enough information at the time. Really? I have more information at home on my couch watching the game on television than you do as the head coach of the team I am watching? If that is the case then the NFL needs to make some changes because I should not have more information with a beer in my hand than the head coach. Just to beat the dead horse, McCarthy should have at least thrown the challenge flag based on how big of a conversion that was at that point in the game. Even if McCarthy lost the challenge, he still would have had one for the rest of the game.
Following the boneheaded non-challenge by McCarthy, the Falcons ran for a short gain to get to the two-minute warning with the game tied 3-3. Coming out of the two-minute warning the Falcons went back to Gonzalez for a big gain to set-up a 1st and goal from the 5-yard line.
Following two short runs, the Falcons faced a 3rd and goal from the 4-yard line coming out of a timeout with 12 second remaining in the half. The Falcons obviously threw, and guess who caught the ball? Yeah, Gonzalez was wide open for an easy touchdown. That catch allowed Gonzalez to pass Jimmy Smith and move into 15th place on the NFL's career receiving list. I am not a defensive genius like Dom Capers but I think you put at least one guy on the best tight end to ever play in the NFL. Much like Bubba Franks back in the day for the Packers, whenever the Falcons are in a goal line situation there should always be at least one defender on Gonzalez. Last year Charles Woodson shadowed tight end Jason Witten in the red zone and was a big reason why the Packers beat the Cowboys. Why not do the same thing against the Flacons?
Much like I did last week in my recap of the Packers/Vikings game in the Humpty Dumpty Dome, let's play the "what if" game for second. What if the Packers scored a touchdown instead of fumbling the ball? The Packers would be up 10-3 and worst-case scenario they are tied 10-10 at halftime. Even better, let the fumble stand but what if McCarthy challenges the Gonzalez "catch" on 4th down? The Packers get the ball back tied 3-3 and most likely come away with some points. If not, the Packers bleed the clock and go into the half tied 3-3. Instead the Packers trailed 10-3 at half against possibly the best team in the NFC. Add in that Atlanta is a superb home team and you can see why the Packers cannot afford the aforementioned errors (Rodgers’ fumble and McCarthy’s failure to challenge) if they expect to win games.
The half time stats look like this according to Fox:
- Packers: 4 possessions, 28 rushing yards, 2 plays over 20-yards, and 13:07 time of possession.
- Falcons: 4 possessions, 57 rushing yards, 1 play over 20-yards, and 16:53 time of possession.
Why flash the rushing stats Fox? You know this is the match up of possibly the two best young quarterbacks in the NFL right? Again I am not a television executive but I think you want to highlight Aaron Rodgers v. Matt Ryan, not Brandon Jackson v. Michael Turner.
Shields opened the second half with a decent return. The Packers used the empty backfield to start the second half. Instead of sticking with what works, McCarthy tried to run on second and short but Jackson lost five yards. On 3rd down the Packers failed to pick up enough yards for the first down and were forced to punt. Let's second-guess the play calling a little bit while we are here. 2nd and 2 turned into 3rd and 7 because McCarthy called a run. Can we officially give up on the run or do you need more evidence?
When the Falcons got the ball back the Packers gave up a long run on first down. After picking up a first down, the Falcons failed to move the ball and were forced to punt.
Following a Tramon Williams fair catch, the Packers started their next offensive drive in the 5 wide receiver set and picked up 9 yards. On second down the Packers ran the ball for no gain. Why do you continue to call running plays that result in a loss of yards? McCarthy, when your team is good at throwing the ball and you are playing in a dome…just throw the ball. On 3rd and 1 McCarthy calls a flea-flicker that goes for a big gain to wide receiver Greg Jennings. That might be the first play call that I have agreed with in a while.
Following the big gain the Packers spread out the defense and Rodgers picked up yards with his feet. As Rodgers went to the ground he took a pretty big hit. Probably a legal hit but I don't get why a quarterbacks slide if they are going to get hit anyways. Don’t get me wrong, the NFL treats quarterbacks like porcelain dolls on every play besides when the quarterback slides. That is part of the reason why the defenseless quarterback rule still remains a mystery to me.
Following a bad pass by Rodgers, the Packers faced a 3rd and 1 at the Falcons' 29-yard line. The Packers lined up in the I-Formation with 2 tight ends and 1 wide receiver. That is a formation that looks like an obvious running formation considering the personnel, especially when you factor in the down and distance. Instead, the Packers went deep and Rodgers completed a perfect pass to wide receiver Jordy Nelson. As the last play shows, the Packers are 100 times better throwing the ball than running the ball...way to have a pair on that play call McCarthy.
The Packers capped off the drive with an empty backfield for a designed quarterback sneak. Again great play-call McCarthy. I give McCarthy credit for learning from his mistakes in the first half. Following the extra point, the game is tied at 10-10.
When the Falcons got the ball back they were penalized for a false start. The Falcons followed that play call with an inside hand off, seemed like a wasted play call ala former Packer head coach Mike Sherman to me. The Falcons picked up a few yards the next play on what looked like a blatant hold on outside linebacker Clay Matthews. The Packers followed that up by burning a timeout for having too many men on the field. Wasting a timeout there is inexcusable...two steps forward and two steps back for McCarthy.
On 3rd and 9 the Falcons picked up the first down with Jason Snelling taking a dump off and beating three Packer linebackers for a first down. Following a short run by Turner, the Falcons picked up a few yards to set-up a 3rd and 6 at their own 35-yard line. The Falcons picked up the first down on an easy pass and catch between Ryan and White.
On the next play the Falcons ran a play action tight end dump off. The Packers sold out on the run and left Gonzalez wide open. The Packers got greedy on that play because if they stayed in their lanes, Gonzalez would have been covered. On the following play the Falcons shoved the ball down the Packers throat for a big gain on the ground. Turner is hard to tackle but the Packers have to do a better job than that at tackling.
A few more positive runs netted the Falcons a 1st and goal from the Packers' 1-yard line. Despite having a formidable backfield the Packers did a nice job on 1st and 2nd down to keep the Falcons out of the end zone. On 3rd down the Falcons went to Gonzalez but he was ruled short of the end zone on the play. Smith challenged the play but the was confirmed by the replay. I am not too sure why Smith challenged the play, there was a visible bobble on the initial replay. On 4th and inches the Falcons went for it and walked into the end zone. That play shows the difference between the Packers and the Falcons. One team can pick up a yard in a pinch (Falcons) while the other (Packers) cannot pick up a yard to save their life. Sometimes it is the little things that determine whether a team is a playoff team or a Super Bowl champion, unfortunately the Packers really struggle in short yardage situations which might come back to haunt them this year.
Quick digression. For my money, Turner is exactly the type of running back the Packers need. Turner is hard to tackle and falls forward almost every time he touches the ball. When Turner was a free agent after the 2007 season the Packers were not yet completely sold on Ryan Grant. Ultimately the Packers caved amid the Favre drama and signed Grant to a lucrative four-year contract. A few months earlier the Packers could have had Michael Turner for much less than they paid Grant because the Falcons ultimately signed Turner to a six-year, $34.5 million contract with $15 million guaranteed. The Packers would rather have Turner than Grant at this point. With so many teams transitioning to a two running back scheme, it still boogles my mind that Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson didn't make a run (no pun intended) at Turner. Obviously with Grant hurt this year it seems easy to say, but a backfield of Turner and Grant for the last three years would have given the Packers possibility the best one-two punch at running back in the NFL.
On the kickoff return following the Falcons’ touchdown the Packers were flagged for 15-yard facemask personal foul. I guess I don't understand the facemask rule because kick returner Sam Shields should be able to stiff-arm a player right? That was a shaky call at best in my opinion. The only thing that makes sense is that Shields was going out of bounds so he did not need to stiff-arm the defender, but we are in fact still playing tackle football in the NFL not two-hand tag right?
Following the penalty the Packers came out in the 5 wide receiver set to pick up an easy first down followed by another nice run by Rodgers. The Packers got greedy and went 5 wide again looking to run another quarterback sneak but the Falcons sniffed it out and stopped it for no gain. In case you were wondering how bad the Packers are at running the ball, with 12 minutes left in the game Rodgers was the only Packer with positive rushing yards on the day.
The Packers ran a screen for Kuhn to net 9 yards, which set up a 3rd and 1. The Packers actually picked up a first down on the ground with Jackson to move the ball to mid-field. The Packers ran Jackson again for a few yards. Following a throw to Jennings, the Packers faced another 3rd and 1. Instead of going heavy the Packers spread out the Falcons and Rodgers took a shot down field that fell incomplete.
Instead of punting, McCarthy decided to go for it on 4th and 1 at the Falcons' 41-yard line. The Falcons blitzed, which forced Rodgers to unload it a little faster than he wanted. Rodgers missed wide receiver Donald Driver by inches, which forced a turnover on downs giving the Falcons the ball back up 17-10 with 9 minutes remaining.
I like that McCarthy took a chance on that play. I might have kept more blockers in to protect Rodgers on 4th down, but I have no problem with the Packers going for it in that situation.
The Falcons moved the ball a little bit when they got the ball back but the Packers defense stopped the Falcons, which gave the Packers offense the ball back down a touchdown with 6 minutes remaining. On first down the Packers ran the ball. That makes no sense to me, not only does it get the clock rolling but also running is not the Packers' strength.
Following the run, Rodgers hit Quarless on consecutive plays to move the Packers to their own 40-yard line. Following an 8-yard run by Jackson, Rodgers picked up the first down on a scramble to set up a 1st and 10 from the Falcons' 45-yard line. Rodgers lucked out not getting intercepted on the next play, but made up for it by hitting Jennings for another first down.
Rodgers dumped off the ball to Jackson for another nice gain. Rodgers found Jones in the back of the end zone on the next play but Jones was unable to get both his feet down in the end zone. Brian Billick talked about a rule change that the NFL recently made. Under the old rule, if a player was "forced out of bounds" without getting both feet down it could still be called a catch. I generally think the NFL is making rules more complicated, but this is one instance where the NFL simplified things. The rule now is that the player has to get both feet down in bounds or it is not a catch...smart change.
On 3rd and 1 the ball was snapped before Rodgers expected the ball. Rodgers threw the ball incomplete setting up a 4th and 1 at the Falcons' 21-yard line. It looked like the Packers didn't get off the snap in time to beat the play clock but it turned out that the Falcons jumped off sides. Either way, Rodgers took full advantage of the free play and threw a shovel pass to Jones that got the Packers a 1st and goal from the Falcons' 3-yard line. On the next play Rodgers was stripped but luckily fell on the ball to get the game to the two-minute warning.
On 2nd and goal from the Falcons' 6-yard line Rodgers threw behind Jones to avoid a blitz. On 3rd down the Packers called a naked running back screen. That play call makes absolutely no sense to me. The Packers should run more screen, but not down by the goal line with the game on the line.
On 4th and goal from the Falcons' 6-yard line rookie right tackle Bryan Bulaga got called for a false start. Former Baltimore Ravens head coach and current Fox commentator Brian Billick made the point I described above about how more room might actually be better for the Packers. On 4th and goal from the Falcons' 11-yard line Rodgers took the snap, bought time with his feet and uncorked an absolute laser to Nelson for a touchdown. Following the extra point the Packers tied the game up 17-17 with 56 seconds remaining in he game.
On the ensuing kickoff the Packers special teams basically gave the game away. Not only did they surrender a 40-yard return, but also a 15-yard facemask penalty by back-up linebacker Matt Wilhelm allowed the Falcons to take over at midfield with one timeout. Let me pile on a little more to the point I made above about special teams coach Shawn Slocum. I understand that there have been some injuries to players on special teams, but how do the Packers surrender such a big play on special teams with less than a minute left and Slocum still has a job?
On 1st down the Packers not only gave up a 9-yard catch to Roddy White, but they let White get out of bounds to stop the clock. On 2nd down the Falcons picked up the first down through the air but the clock continued to roll.
On the next play the Packers brought an all-out-blitz but still gave up an easy reception to the sidelines for a 4-yard gain. Again the Packers let the Falcons use the sideline to set-up a 3rd and 3 at the Packers' 32-yard line with 18 second remaining. The Falcons ran a roll out on 3rd down that almost resulted in a sack until Ryan threw it away.
McCarthy used his last timeout right before the field goal attempt. Why? The NFL is a copycat league so everyone does that. Okay fine but the bigger issue is that the Packers no longer had a way to stop the clock when they get the ball back. As we will see soon that doesn't matter for this game, but McCarthy should keep that in mind down the road because every second counts and those timeouts can always be used better than to “ice the kicker”.
On the actual field goal attempt following timeout, Bryant hit the ball perfectly to put the Falcons up 20-17. That left the Packers with 9 seconds to pull off a miracle. The ensuing kickoff wasted 7 seconds, leaving only 2 seconds on the clock for the Packers. On the final play of the game Jennings picked up a bunch of yards but his flip to Driver to keep the play alive went out of bounds. 68,204 were treated to a possible NFC Championship preview that saw the Falcons continue to assert their home field advantage. Ryan moved his home record to 19-1.
As a result the Packers fell 20-17. Somehow this goes as a loss for Rodgers. Yes Rodgers did fumble at the goal line, but that is because the Packers are horrible at picking up short yardage so they put their franchise quarterback in harms way on 3rd and 1. If the Packers running backs could do anything in short yardage situations, they wouldn’t need their franchise quarterback to sneak in those situations. Instead, the Packers could pound it in with an actual NFL running back. Unfortunately Brandon Jackson and Dimitri Nance are not starting caliber NFL running backs at this point.
For the day Rodgers was 26 for 34 for 344 yards and 1 touchdown for a 114.5 quarterback rating. Rodgers also picked up 51 yards on the ground and 1 touchdown (13th of his career and most in the NFL since 2008). As I have argued many times over, Rodgers’ game is suited for indoor games. Rodgers has averaged 288.7 yards passing over nine dome starts.
Ryan was 24 of 28 for 197 yards and 1 touchdown for a passer rating of 108. Ryan also notched his 12th fourth quarter comeback. I hate the Matty Ice nickname but 12 fourth quarter comebacks in less than three years is pretty impressive.
Coming into their match-up the Packers lead the all-time series 12-11. As we all know by now, the Falcons tied up the series and gave us a potential NFC Championship preview. The loss to Atlanta also marks the Packers 4th loss by three points this season…a disturbing trend that is going to have to change if the Packers want to make a legitimate playoff push. It also pushed Mike McCarthy’s record to 5-14 and Aaron Rodgers’ record to 2-12 in games decided by four points or fewer.
Green Bay Packer general manager Ted Thompson placed two more players on injured reserve, moving the season total up to lucky 13. Recently signed reserve tight end Spencer Havner was activated for the first time since rejoining the Packers. Havner aggravated his left hamstring against the Falcons, which will see him miss the rest of the 2010 season. Since Havner was placed on injured reserve, he only made one appearance for the Packers in 2010.
Back-up middle linebacker Brandon Chillar was lost for the season with a left shoulder injury. Chillar has played hurt for almost the entire season. With the emergence of Bishop the loss of Chillar is not that bad unless the Packers lose Bishop or Hawk before the end of 2010…knock on wood please because I might have just put the hex on them.
Robert Francois (LB) and Josh Gordy (CB) were signed to the active roster from the practice squad in place of Havner and Chillar. Gordy is a 5’11”, 185-pound rookie that has Sam Shields like speed. Gordy ran a 4.35 second 40-yard dash and looks like another raw cornerback that the Packers can use on special teams. Francois is making s repeat appearance on the active roster. Francois is a 6’2”, 255-pound linebacker that has been with the Packers at various points over the last two years. Much like Gordy, François looks like a special teams player at best. Terrance Smith (WR) and Curtis Young (LB/DE) replaced Francois and Gordy on the practice squad. Not much to say about Smith or Young so let’s move on.
With all of the backup moves out of the way, let’s move on to the Tramon Williams extension. Williams’ extension has been covered a number of different places with Andrew Brandt at the National Football Post giving a great insiders perspective but that has never stopped me from adding my take. Williams got a much-deserved four-year, $33 million extension with $11 million in guarantees. The deal averages $8.25 million per year (14th among all NFL cornerbacks), which makes Williams the 4th highest paid Packers behind Aaron Rodgers, Charles Woodson, and Greg Jennings. In a bit of an oddity, Williams signed the deal last week but was not announced until earlier this week. The Packers had to do something because Williams was playing on a one-year, $3.043 million tender (36th among NFL cornerbacks) that would have allowed him to become a free agent after the 2010 season. Here is an annual breakdown of the deal:
- 2010: $6 million signing bonus, $14.4 million base salary but only makes $5.1 million this year because the salary is pro-rated over 17 weeks ($11.1 million) = 11.1 million maximum
- 2011: $1 million base salary, $2.2 million roster bonus (due 30th day of the league year), $300,000 game day bonus ($18,750 for each game he is on the 45-man active roster), and $100,000 workout bonus = $3.6 million maximum
- 2012: $2.3 million base salary, $2.5 million roster bonus (due 15th day of the league year), $300,000 game day bonus ($18,750 for each game he is on the 45-man active roster), and $300,000 workout bonus = $5.4 million maximum
- 2013: $5.9 million base salary, $300,000 game day bonus ($18,750 for each game he is on the 45-man active roster), and $300,000 workout bonus = $6.5 million maximum
- 2014: $6.9 million base salary, $300,000 game day bonus ($18,750 for each game he is on the 45-man active roster), and $300,000 workout bonus = $7.5 million maximum
Finally Williams has a $250,000 escalator in his contract if he makes the Pro Bowl in 2011 through 2014, which I expect him to earn in 2011.
Was the extension worth it? Based on Williams’s performance in 2010 I would say so. Williams has not allowed a touchdown this year, amassed only 1 penalty, has 4 interceptions, and has defended 16 passes. As stated above, Williams will be the 14th highest paid cornerback in the NFL. Williams is on the cusp of becoming one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL so only being the 14th highest paid cornerback in the NFL seems like a good deal.
When Williams’s extension expires, he will only be 31. Odds are, the Packers and Williams will renegotiate that deal even before that because there is not any guaranteed money in the last two years of the deal.
Williams probably could have gotten more money if he waited till after the season but Williams always wanted to stay in Green Bay (who can blame him) and has a chance to renegotiate starting in 2013 because he will no longer have any guarantees for 2013 and 2014.
My ratings for each move on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the best possible score:
- Havner placed on IR: 3 (why did TT resign him?)
- Chillar placed on IR: 7 (let him get healthy for 2011)
- Gordy added to 53-man roster: 4 (should he play in front of Underwood?)
- Francois added to 53-man roster: 4 (don’t cover up the long snapper ever again)
- Smith added to the practice squad: 1 (no need for a 6th receiver)
- Young added to the practice squad: 3 (more combo DE/OLB are a good thing for 3-4 teams like the Packers)
- Williams Extension: 10 (pay the man his money…he earned it)
Friday, November 27, 2009
2009 Thanksgiving Day Packers v. Lions Analyzed
The Green Bay Packers extended their winning streak to three games by beating the lowly Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day. The NFL clings to certain traditions that seem woefully outdated. One of them is giving the Detroit Lions a home game every Thanksgiving. The Lions have sputtered as a franchise over the last decade under the direction of Matt Millen. Detroit's last win on Thanksgiving came in 2003 and they have lost 8 of their last 9 games on Thanksgiving Day. The only plausible justification besides "tradition" that the NFL can use to rationalize giving Detroit a home game every Thanksgiving is the easy ratings ANY Thanksgiving NFL games generates.
Most American families get together on Thanksgiving Day for a big meal and watch sports in a food induced comma. The higher ups in the NFL know that Detroit has not been competitive in the last decade as explained above but they still schedule them on Thanksgiving. This is genius on the NFL's part. They bank rating because of the day NOT the teams. As a result they have a crappy team (Detroit) host a home game that they actually sell out (few and far between for a number of reasons as of late) and almost all of America tunes in (gives random family members something to talk about).
Enough of my rambling, I am going to mix up the "Top 5 Plays Analyzed" column for the Thanksgiving clash between Green Bay and Detroit. There were "5 microcosms" in this game, both good and bad, that will have a large bearing on the rest of the season for Green Bay. Here are this season's microcosms illuminated through important plays in the Packers/Lions game:
#5) The Ageless Donald Driver:
Green Bay leads 13-7, Green Bay ball on the Detroit 7 yard line, 3rd and 5 with 6:43 left in the 3rd quarter: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) threw short right to Donald Driver (Green Bay) for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Analysis:
Coming into the 2009 NFL season, Greg Jennings looked to be the go to wide receiver on the Green Bay Packers. Through 11 games, Driver has emerged as the #1 wide receiver on Green Bay not Greg Jennings. Here is a comparison of Driver's and Jennings's stats for 2009:
- Donald Driver: 53 catches, 845 yards and 5 touchdowns.
- Greg Jennings: 47 catches, 722 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Driver's assent from a 7th round draft pick in the 1999 NFL Draft to a go to wide receiver in the NFL is nothing short of amazing. Check out this video here, if your eyes didn't well then you need to re-evaluate whether you are in fact a caring person. Driver is hands down the most likable person on the Green Bay Packers.
#4) Mike McCarthy's Game Management:
Green Bay Leads 27-7, Green Bay ball on their own 1 yard line, 2nd and 10 with 9:22 left in the fourth quarter: Ryan Grant (Green Bay) ran right to GB -1 for -2 yards, FUMBLES and the ball is RECOVERED by Jordan Dizon (Detroit) at the Green Bay -1 yard line, TOUCHDOWN. Green Bay challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. Ryan Grant (Green Bay) tackled in the End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY.
Analysis:
This play illustrates the good and the bad for Mike McCarthy. It was a horrible play call by Mike McCarthy from the 1 yard line. Ryan Grant is not fast enough to bump a run outside from the 1 yard line. If that play stood as called on the field the score would have been 27-14 with 9 minutes to go in the fourth quarter. The game would have probably still been out of reach but McCarthy astutely challenged the play and it was reversed. McCarthy later challenged a play that was overturned making him 2 for 2 on Thanksgiving and and 4 of 8 on the season. Although I vehemently disagree with the play call (the bad), McCarthy kept a cool head and challenged the ruling on the field (the good). Something clicked against Dallas a few weeks ago and McCarthy started making in game adjustments that he has not made in the past. Hopefully that means McCarthy is more in tune with the game instead of impersonating Andy Reid (the most clueless coaches in the NFL when it comes to game management).
#3) Aaron Rodgers on 3rd Down:
Detroit leads 7-0, Green Bay ball on their own 25 yard line, 3rd and 11 with 13 second left in the 1st quarter: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) threw deep right to Donald Driver (Green Bay) to the Detroit 7 yard line for 68 yards.
Analysis:
Aaron Rodgers had ample time to scan the defense before unleashing an absolute bomb (he claimed after the game he threw it as far as he possibly could, roughly 70 yards). Rodgers is the highest rated passer in the NFL on 3rd down and that trend continued on Thanksgiving Day, Green Bay converted 9 of 16 plays. Earlier in the seasons a number of pundits complained that Rodgers was holding onto the ball too long, which lead to a number of unnecessary sacks. Over the last few weeks Rodgers has extended plays with his pocket presence and ability to scramble. What were sacks earlier in the season are turning into completed passes or scrambles for positive yards. If this trend continues, Green Bay might be playing deep into January thanks to Aaron Rodgers.
#2) Issues on Special Teams:
Game tied 0-0, start of the game: Jason Hanson (Detroit) kicks 71 yards from the Detroit 30 yard line to the Green Bay -1 yard line. Jordy Nelson (Green Bay) returned the ball to the Green Bay 21 yard line for 22 yards but FUMBLES, ball RECOVERED by Detroit at the Green Bay 20 yard line.
Analysis:
Here is a quick snap shot of the negative special teams plays against Detroit: 4 penalties, 2 kick off returns of over 30 yards given up, 1 fumble and 1 missed field goal. Those are all unacceptable for a team fighting for a wild card spot. Luckily Green Bay played Detroit this week. The only touchdown Green Bay surrendered was set-up by the short field Detroit (got the ball at the Green Bay 20 yard line) had as a result of Jordy Nelson's fumble to start the game.
Atari Bigby was penalized for one of the most blatant and useless blocks in the back I have ever seen on special teams. Mason Crosby has missed a field goal in 7 of 11 games this season. In fairness, 4 of those came from over 50 yards but the missed field goals, penalties and poor decisions continue on special teams. Green Bay has to stick with their special teams coach Shawn Slocum (assistant under Mike Stock last year...not exactly a strong branch of the Bill Walsh coaching tree) for the rest of the season at this point. Hopefully they get better as a unit but through 11 games this season there is no reason to believe that will happen.
#1) Charles Woodson:
Green Bay leads 27-12, Detroit ball on their own 33 yard line, 1st and 10 with 3:55 left in the 4th quarter: Matthew Stafford (Detroit) threw short right intended for Calvin Johnson (Detroit) INTERCEPTED by Charles Woodson (Green Bay) at the Detroit 38 yard line and returned 38 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.
Analysis:
Charles Woodson has been the best player on the Green Bay Packers in 2009 and is making a strong bid for NFL defensive player of the year. Woodson continued his stellar play on Thanksgiving: 7 tackles, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble and 1 defensive touchdown.
Despite his impressive play on the field on Thanksgiving, Woodson did something even more impressive off the field on Thanksgiving. Woodson started off Thanksgiving by donating $2 million to the his alma mater, the University of Michigan, to help build a pediatric hospital.
Most American families get together on Thanksgiving Day for a big meal and watch sports in a food induced comma. The higher ups in the NFL know that Detroit has not been competitive in the last decade as explained above but they still schedule them on Thanksgiving. This is genius on the NFL's part. They bank rating because of the day NOT the teams. As a result they have a crappy team (Detroit) host a home game that they actually sell out (few and far between for a number of reasons as of late) and almost all of America tunes in (gives random family members something to talk about).
Enough of my rambling, I am going to mix up the "Top 5 Plays Analyzed" column for the Thanksgiving clash between Green Bay and Detroit. There were "5 microcosms" in this game, both good and bad, that will have a large bearing on the rest of the season for Green Bay. Here are this season's microcosms illuminated through important plays in the Packers/Lions game:
#5) The Ageless Donald Driver:
Green Bay leads 13-7, Green Bay ball on the Detroit 7 yard line, 3rd and 5 with 6:43 left in the 3rd quarter: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) threw short right to Donald Driver (Green Bay) for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Analysis:
Coming into the 2009 NFL season, Greg Jennings looked to be the go to wide receiver on the Green Bay Packers. Through 11 games, Driver has emerged as the #1 wide receiver on Green Bay not Greg Jennings. Here is a comparison of Driver's and Jennings's stats for 2009:
- Donald Driver: 53 catches, 845 yards and 5 touchdowns.
- Greg Jennings: 47 catches, 722 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Driver's assent from a 7th round draft pick in the 1999 NFL Draft to a go to wide receiver in the NFL is nothing short of amazing. Check out this video here, if your eyes didn't well then you need to re-evaluate whether you are in fact a caring person. Driver is hands down the most likable person on the Green Bay Packers.
#4) Mike McCarthy's Game Management:
Green Bay Leads 27-7, Green Bay ball on their own 1 yard line, 2nd and 10 with 9:22 left in the fourth quarter: Ryan Grant (Green Bay) ran right to GB -1 for -2 yards, FUMBLES and the ball is RECOVERED by Jordan Dizon (Detroit) at the Green Bay -1 yard line, TOUCHDOWN. Green Bay challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. Ryan Grant (Green Bay) tackled in the End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY.
Analysis:
This play illustrates the good and the bad for Mike McCarthy. It was a horrible play call by Mike McCarthy from the 1 yard line. Ryan Grant is not fast enough to bump a run outside from the 1 yard line. If that play stood as called on the field the score would have been 27-14 with 9 minutes to go in the fourth quarter. The game would have probably still been out of reach but McCarthy astutely challenged the play and it was reversed. McCarthy later challenged a play that was overturned making him 2 for 2 on Thanksgiving and and 4 of 8 on the season. Although I vehemently disagree with the play call (the bad), McCarthy kept a cool head and challenged the ruling on the field (the good). Something clicked against Dallas a few weeks ago and McCarthy started making in game adjustments that he has not made in the past. Hopefully that means McCarthy is more in tune with the game instead of impersonating Andy Reid (the most clueless coaches in the NFL when it comes to game management).
#3) Aaron Rodgers on 3rd Down:
Detroit leads 7-0, Green Bay ball on their own 25 yard line, 3rd and 11 with 13 second left in the 1st quarter: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) threw deep right to Donald Driver (Green Bay) to the Detroit 7 yard line for 68 yards.
Analysis:
Aaron Rodgers had ample time to scan the defense before unleashing an absolute bomb (he claimed after the game he threw it as far as he possibly could, roughly 70 yards). Rodgers is the highest rated passer in the NFL on 3rd down and that trend continued on Thanksgiving Day, Green Bay converted 9 of 16 plays. Earlier in the seasons a number of pundits complained that Rodgers was holding onto the ball too long, which lead to a number of unnecessary sacks. Over the last few weeks Rodgers has extended plays with his pocket presence and ability to scramble. What were sacks earlier in the season are turning into completed passes or scrambles for positive yards. If this trend continues, Green Bay might be playing deep into January thanks to Aaron Rodgers.
#2) Issues on Special Teams:
Game tied 0-0, start of the game: Jason Hanson (Detroit) kicks 71 yards from the Detroit 30 yard line to the Green Bay -1 yard line. Jordy Nelson (Green Bay) returned the ball to the Green Bay 21 yard line for 22 yards but FUMBLES, ball RECOVERED by Detroit at the Green Bay 20 yard line.
Analysis:
Here is a quick snap shot of the negative special teams plays against Detroit: 4 penalties, 2 kick off returns of over 30 yards given up, 1 fumble and 1 missed field goal. Those are all unacceptable for a team fighting for a wild card spot. Luckily Green Bay played Detroit this week. The only touchdown Green Bay surrendered was set-up by the short field Detroit (got the ball at the Green Bay 20 yard line) had as a result of Jordy Nelson's fumble to start the game.
Atari Bigby was penalized for one of the most blatant and useless blocks in the back I have ever seen on special teams. Mason Crosby has missed a field goal in 7 of 11 games this season. In fairness, 4 of those came from over 50 yards but the missed field goals, penalties and poor decisions continue on special teams. Green Bay has to stick with their special teams coach Shawn Slocum (assistant under Mike Stock last year...not exactly a strong branch of the Bill Walsh coaching tree) for the rest of the season at this point. Hopefully they get better as a unit but through 11 games this season there is no reason to believe that will happen.
#1) Charles Woodson:
Green Bay leads 27-12, Detroit ball on their own 33 yard line, 1st and 10 with 3:55 left in the 4th quarter: Matthew Stafford (Detroit) threw short right intended for Calvin Johnson (Detroit) INTERCEPTED by Charles Woodson (Green Bay) at the Detroit 38 yard line and returned 38 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.
Analysis:
Charles Woodson has been the best player on the Green Bay Packers in 2009 and is making a strong bid for NFL defensive player of the year. Woodson continued his stellar play on Thanksgiving: 7 tackles, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble and 1 defensive touchdown.
Despite his impressive play on the field on Thanksgiving, Woodson did something even more impressive off the field on Thanksgiving. Woodson started off Thanksgiving by donating $2 million to the his alma mater, the University of Michigan, to help build a pediatric hospital.
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