Showing posts with label 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks. Show all posts

Sunday, February 22, 2015

Building The 15 - Building The 15 - Bucks Trade Knight for MCW, Ennis, and Plumlee

A few hours before the 2015 NBA Trade Deadline it looked like it would be one of the quietest NBA trade deadlines in the last decade until a flurry of moves that all emanated from the Phoenix Suns and rippled through the NBA almost broke Twitter.  As all NBA pundits besides my current favorite NBA writer Grantland's Zach Lowe since his wife just had a baby girl tried to get as much information out as possible about all of the franchise altering trades.

As a whole I ultimately think the Suns got much worse in the short term given that they traded three very interesting point guards in Goran Dragic, Isaiah Thomas, and Tyler Ennis as well as a tasty 2015 first round draft pick (L.A. Lakers pick that is Top 5 protected) for essentially combo guard Brandon Knight and three future first round picks (a 2016 first rounder from the Celtics via the Cavs with Top 10 protection as well as two first rounders from the Miami Heat one from the 2017, 2018, or 2019 draft depending on certain conditions and the other is 2021 unprotected).  Sure there are more players and details involved in those deals but if the Suns just tried to cultivate the back court of Dragic and Eric Bledsoe last off-season, they might have had the most interesting back court in the NBA besides the Golden State Warriors (Stephen Curry and Clay Thompson) for the next five years.  Instead the Suns took Ennis with the 18th pick in the 2014 NBA Draft and acquired Thomas in a sign-and-trade from the Kings, which basically guaranteed that Dragic was going to walk this off-season given that it left the Suns with a crowded back court and an unhappy Dragic.  There was no question that Dragic was going to get traded since his agent publicly said as much.  The question was where would Dragic end up.  Ultimately Dragic went to the Heat but the most interesting move the Suns made was a three-team deal that involved the Milwaukee Bucks and the Philadelphia 76ers.

The Bucks/76ers/Suns trade was the biggest surprise of the deadline because almost every one of the other big names moved at the trade deadline (Arron Afflalo, Dragic, Reggie Jackson, and Enes Kanter) were shopped for weeks leading up to the trade deadline while the two biggest pieces in the Bucks/76ers/Suns three-teamer, point guards Brandon Knight and Michael Carter-Williams ("MCW"), were NOT floated in almost any NBA trade deadline rumors.  Here are the general parameters of the Bucks/76ers/Suns trade with the former employee for each player in parenthesis:
- Bucks get MCW (76ers), Ennis (Suns), and power forward Miles Plumlee (Suns)
- 76ers get 2015 Top 5 protected L.A. Lakers first round pick (Suns)
- Suns get Knight (Bucks) and Kendall Marshall (Suns)

There is no question that Knight is the best player in the trade but he also has the most uncertain future give that he is scheduled to become a restricted agent this summer since he was the 8th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft but could NOT agree to an extension with the Bucks last off-season.  The real question is whether MCW or the draft pick is the second best player in the trade.  MCW is averaging 15 points, 7.4 assists, and 6.2 rebounds this season.  That makes MCW and Russell Westbrook the only current 15-7-6 guys but take that with a grain of salt because MCW is shooting just 26% from three-point land and 39.6% from the field.  That means MCW is a chucker on the worst team in the NBA, which is a far cry from what Westbrook is doing to keep the Oklahoma City Thunder in the playoff hunt sans Kevin Durant.

In order for the 76ers to get the pick from the Lakers it has to fall out of the Top 5, which is no guarantee given that the Lakers currently have the 4th worst record in the NBA with a fair amount of distance between the Lakers and the 5th worst team in the NBA right now the Orlando Magic given that the Magic currently have five more wins than the Lakers with less than 30 games to play in the regular season.  Given the dire cap situation for the Lakers, their only hope of being relevant for Kobe's last few years in the NBA is a Patrick Ewing-esque NBA Lottery fix.  I know the current commissioner Adam Silver seems like a much more upstanding individual than former NBA commissioner David Stern but the Lakers struggling is trouble for the NBA so I bet the Lakers keep the pick in 2015.

There are a million and one places that you can go to read in grave detail about how MCW is one of the worst three-pointer shooters in the NBA.  Given how much NBA teams besides the Phil Jackson lead New York Knicks and Byron Scott coached Lakers realize how important the three point shot is in 2015, it does perplex me a little that Hammond apparently doesn't care how damaging that is offensively that it is to downgrade from Knight to MCW.

There are really only two far fetched on-court justifications that make sense to me.  One, Hammond is trying to build a defensive oriented team with the long longest wingspan at every position in the NBA by trotting out MCW at point guard, The Greek Freak at shooting guard, Jabari at small forward, John Henson at power forward, and a warm body at center. Two, Hammond actually thinks that Bucks head coach Jason Kidd can work with MCW to improve his shot much like Kidd did with Knight.  If Kidd is going to fix MCW's shot, he should look at what the New Orleans Pelicans were able to do with Anthony Davis.  I get that MCW is no Anthony Davis but we are talking about shot fundamentals.  Save used to release the ball in front of his face but now he has a much higher release point.  According to ESPN's Kirk Goldsberry that changed Davis from Josh Smith level of efficiency into Durant level of efficiency.  The first justification is potentially believable but the second one is a couple year project.

I was very critical about new Bucks owner Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry trading for Kidd.  I am not ready to recant that entire post because my main beef was not that I thought Kidd would be a horrible coach.  My two biggest beefs were that the owners handled the process incorrectly because they made the move behind Hammond's back.  I can honestly live with that but my bigger worry was that I thought it was a precursor to turning over the general manager responsibilities to Kidd, which gave me horrible flashbacks of when Mike Sherman served as dual head coach and general manager for the Green Bay Packers.  Given how well the Bucks have played despite being without rookie small forward Jabari Parker, arguably the most talented player on The 15, I see Hammond around a long time now unless this trade submarines the franchise thanks to The 15 that Hammond built for the Bucks.

Let's assume the Lakers somehow get the 6th pick in the 2015 NBA Draft so they have to give it to the 76ers.  Right now Chad Ford has UCLA power forward Kevon Looney rated 6th and Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein rated 7th in his Top 100 players in the 2015 NBA Draft.  Although both of those players have interesting upsides, I would probably still rather have MCW over both of those guys.  If the Lakers end up with a Top 5 pick then this trade looks borderline horrible for the 76ers since they gave away a great defensive but horrible offensive point guard to get yet another draft pick.  I know 76ers general manager Sam Hinkey seems like a smart guy but two in the bush is not always better than a bird in the hand.

One way or another the Bucks are going to commit a ton of money to their young nucleus over the next three or four years so I honestly think this is more about covering up that they made a $30 million mist this summer when they failed to get Knight signed to a contract extension last off-season than adding a better player.  As I mentioned in my first look at The 15 this season, it seemed like last off-season the floor for a contract extension for Knight was four-years, $32 million while the ceiling was four-years, $48 million.  Given how Knight thrived this season, I honestly think he could sign a five-year, $90 million extension since he posses a very unique skill set and there are a ton of NBA teams with cap space this off-season.

The most interesting player in the trade is Ennis.  My 2014 and 2015 NBA Trade Deadline advice posts for Hammond show my affinity for Suns combo guard Archie Goodwin.  The Suns used to have essentially seven guards on their roster (Bledsoe, Reggie Bullock, Dragic, Zoran Dragic, Ennis, Goodwin, Gerald Green, and Thomas) before they sent the Dragic brothers to the Heat, Thomas to the Boston Celtics, and Ennis to the Bucks.  Sure the Suns got Knight and Marcus Thornton back but I would rather have Goran Dragic than Knight, Thomas than Thornton, and time will tell whether Ennis is worthy of getting regular NBA minutes given that he is only a rookie.  It looks like Goodwin will be the beneficiary of increased playing time thanks to the mass exodus at the guard position from Phoneix.  It will be interesting to see if Ennis or Goodwin blossom into a better NBA player because I would have bet on Goodwin instead of Ennis but most of that is due to my unending desire to replace Ray Allen with a quality shooting guard as opposed to adding another backup point guard when the Bucks already had a couple in the fold.

Assuming the Bucks are able to buyout with center Larry Sanders, after all of the moves above that leaves the Bucks with roughly $15 million in cap space this off-season.  As crazy as it sounds, I could see both players that Hammond traded to the Suns actually playing for the Bucks next season.  Given that Marshall is coming off a season ending knee injury, I can't see another NBA team claiming him after the Suns waive him so I could see him coming back.  It will be much trickier for Hammond to get Knight to come back.  If I were Hammond, I would throw the a huge font-loaded contract with declining yearly salaries over the life of the contract at Knight this off-season.  If the Suns match, great.  If not, the Bucks get Knight back and possibly pay the tax next season until Mayo and Pachullia become free agents after next season, which will allow the Bucks to open up another $13 million in cap space to work out an extensions for their bevy of talented players still on rookie contracts.

These is a slim chance that Knight returns to the Bucks this off-season, which second contract extension logjam given that the there are a ton of guys currently on The 15 that were taken in the first round of the the last three NBA Drafts so if they are worth anything they are due big contract extensions in the near future:

In the 2012 NBA Draft the Bucks drafted power forward/center Jon Henson with the14th pick and just added Plumlee, who was the 26th pick in that same draft.  That means Henson and Plumlee are due contract extensions following the 2015-16 NBA season, I expect Henson's to be in the $8 to $10 million per year range, which I would expect to be three or four times larger than Plumlee's on a per year basis.

In 2013 NBA Draft the 76ers drafted MCW was the 11th pick and the Bucks drafted The Greek Freak with the 15th pick.  Both players look like potential franchise players with The Greek Freak having a much higher ceiling but MCW having a much higher floor.  I say potential because both need to make big strides offensively in the next 18 months to fulfill their lofty expectations.  That means unless MCW or The Greek Freak suffer career ending injuries over the next two seasons (knocking on wood as I type), they will both most likely sign very lucrative contracts with some NBA team following the 2016-17 NBA season.

That leaves the 2014 NBA Draft when the Bucks drafted Jabari with the 2nd pick and Ennis was the 18th pick.  Injuries cut Parker's seasons short but absent that being a career ending injury, the Bucks would sign Parker long-term right now if the CBA allowed it.  The jury is still out on Ennis so luckily the Bucks have a couple seasons to see what he can do before they need to make any long-term decisions on Ennis.

The NBA's new revenue deal kicks in a few years from now, which will dramatically increase the salary cap but my hopes was that the Bucks would already have extended most of their non-max core, which would make each of those deals look even more cost-effective in a couple seasons.  One school of thought is that Hammond can continue to punt on rookies at the end of their first contract when they are on the verge of singing expensive extensions (Knight) for young guys that are NOT as talented but cost a fraction for the next few seasons (MCW, Ennis, and Plumlee).  Unfortunately those deals will become fewer and far between given that there are fewer Billy Kings still in charge of NBA teams.

The other thing that worries me about the Knight trade is that it opens up the Bucks to another silly mid-level deal for a useless veteran to help spend some of their available cap space since I find it highly unlikely that they will be able to attract a top-flight free agent this off-season.  Hopefully if The 15 continues to improve, the Bucks will be able to entice tasty free agents to sign with them down the road but I do NOT see it happening this off-season.

For the first time in a while I wanted Hammond to sit tight at the NBA Trade Deadline given how well the Bucks player recently (won 8 of 9 heading into the All-Star Break) but instead Hammond made a blockbuster deal.  Despite losing Jabari for the season in mid-December, the Bucks have continued to be a tough match-up for most teams because of how well they play defensively.  Once healthy, MCW will only add to that defensive prowess, the question is where the scoring will come from since Knight was the team's leading scorer before Hammond traded him to the Suns.  Sure MCW put up points for the 76ers but he did it as inefficiently as possible for the worst team in the NBA.  Remember, even the worst NBA teams still usually score 85 to 90 points a game so someone has to score.

It will be interesting to see how all the new pieces jell over the next few weeks.  If the Bucks can go on a nice winning streak, I could actually see them push the Bulls for the Central Division title.  The more likely scenario is that the Bucks struggle for a couple weeks to find their offensive identity and plummet to the 6th or 7th seed in the east.  Either way, it will be interesting to see how this plays out because if MCW is NOT a fit long-term, the 2015 NBA Trade Deadline will be the day Hammond NOT only traded Knight but also the day he started to process of agitating Parker and The Greek Freak to the point that they consider leaving Milwaukee for greener pastures.  If MCW learns how to shoot then the 2015 NBA Trade Deadline will go down as the day that Hammond turned water into wine...welcome to Milwaukee MCW...no pressure.

Friday, February 13, 2015

Building The 15 - A Plea to Stand Pat at the 2015 NBA Trade Deadline

This is the 6th year (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014) that I've provided NBA Trade Deadline advice to Milwaukee Bucks (co) general manager John Hammond.  I used "(co)" because the last couple moves to The 15 had Bucks head coach Jason Kidd's hands all over them, which makes me think Kidd is transitioning into a role of head coach and general manager.  I've clearly been critical of Kidd in the past because he has only been an NBA coach for one season and already has ambitions of having his hand in front office moves too, which is what got him traded to the Bucks in the first place.  If I owned the Bucks, I would have Kidd focus on coaching and let Hammond handle Building The 15.

The Bucks won 8 of 9 games going into the NBA All-Star break but have really only beaten up on the scrubs with a 23-6 record v. sub-.500 teams and 8-19 v. above-.500 teams.  Either way, the Bucks still have two members of The 15 participating this weekend in some of the 2015 NBA All-Star Weekend festivities.  The Greek Freak is playing in the NBA Rising Stars Game and is in the slam dunk contest while Brandon Knight is participating in the skills competition.  I will do my duty and post fake trades for Hammond but this is the first season in a while that I hope the Bucks sit tight at the trade deadline unless they are able to pull of a one-sided deal with a desperate team in "win-now" mode that does NOT compromise the top of The 15 because I like the top end of The 15.  It should take a huge return to pry away Brandon Knight or John Henson but The Greek Freak and Jabari Parker are truly the only two untouchables on The 15.  Had things not gone so far south with center Larry Sanders, this advice column might have been similar to 2012 when I focused on every way possible for Hammond to trade Stephen Jackson but the Bucks and Sanders are currently working on a buyout so there is no way another NBA team would trade for Sanders at this point.

As I've said many times in the past, I would hate to see the Bucks part with any future first round picks given that is really their best way of adding talent.  I am even reticent to include a second round draft pick too because although the Bucks still have extra second round picks, they don't have that many extra picks given that they traded two to the Brooklyn Nets to acquire head coach Jason Kidd.

NBA trades are mostly about shuffling around expensive contracts in hopes that a change of scenery turns one team's trash into another team's treasure, which is why I wrote my first (annual hopefully) NBA General Manager Buyer's Remorse Day post.  With the 2015 NBA Trade Deadline (Thursday, February 19th at 2:00 PM CST) rapidly approaching, here are my favorite somewhat plausible trades (least favorite to most favorite) that I put together for Hammond's review with an assist from ESPN's NBA Trade Machine that he could float to other general manager this weekend at NBA All-Star Weekend in New York:

#5) Bucks trade John Henson (PF/C) to the Utah Jazz for Enes Kanter (C):
There have been rumblings for months that Kanter wants out of Utah and given that he is a restricted free agent at the end of the season, I am sure that Jazz management has evaluated a number of ways to get something in return for Kanter.  It is too bad for the Jazz that the situation has deteriorate so much because Kanter is an offense first big man that shows flashes of being a dominate NBA center.  I know Kanter struggles defensively but the Bucks need offense much more than defense at this point. Sure there is an outside chance that the Jazz could hold onto Kanter instead of trading him in the hopes of mending fences but given that their relationship is most likely beyond repair, it would be nice for the Jazz to get another legitimate defensive presence to pair with Rudy Goebert in Henson.  Add in that Henson is under team control on the cheap for a season longer than Kanter and this trade actually looks to favor the Jazz so I think they would actually have to throw in a future second rounder to get this deal done.

#4) Bucks trade Johnny O'Bryant III (PF) to the Orlando Magic for Andrew Nicholson (PF):
The Magic apparently do NOT see Nicholson as a part of their long-term plans, which makes his $2.3 million salary for the 2015-16 season awfully expensive if they do NOT view him as a potential building block.  This trade allows the Magic to save a little money given that the rookie O'Bryant signed a three-year, $2.4 million contract but only the first two years are guaranteed so the Magic could keep O'Bryant for the 2016-17 season for roughly $1 million or could cut him without any salary cap ramifications.  Given that O'Bryant is only a rookie it seems too early to give up on him but this trade has more to do with the fact that I am bummed that the Bucks drafted O'Bryant instead of Big Dogg's son with the 36th pick in the 2014 NBA Draft.  There is a good chance that Nicholson wallows on the bench if Hammond actually acquires him but I am still not ready to give up on him so I am fine with the Bucks taking on slightly more salary in this trade (hey, its not my money anyhow since I am no longer acting like I am Bucks owner) on the off chance that Nicholson can figure out his game in Milwaukee.

#3) Bucks trade Zaza Pachulia (C) to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Anthony Bennett (PF):
This trade is mostly to needle my Minnesota friends, especially my buddy Nick given that he is one of the biggest NBA fans I know.  My buddy Sug and I were on record as saying Wiggins for K-Love alone felt like the Timberwolves were getting the better end of the deal.  The fact that the Timberwolves got (fat) Anthony Bennett too honestly seemed like gilding the lily.  At this point it seems like only the Cleveland Cavaliers thought that Bennett was worth the first pick in the 2013 NBA Draft.  What makes that pick even more painful is that the Cavs could have just taken combo guard Victor Oladipo (my unabashed draft crush of the 2013 NBA Draft), which would have been a huge upgrade over Dion Waiters.  Before the 2013 NBA Draft it seemed like the debate was whether Oladipo or Nerlens Noel should go 1st overall but Noel had a knee injury that hurt his draft stock.  Even if the Cavs passed on Oladipo, they should have taken Noel because it would have saved them from giving the perpetually injured Anderson Varejao a three-year, $30 million extension.  Sadly it looks like Bennett will be a bust, which is why I am trying to give the Timberwolves an out to add a somewhat cost-effective NBA center while the Bucks get a perpetually overweight power forward to go to the fattest NBA city.  On second thought, may be this is a better deal for the Timberwovles so let's just move on.

#2) Bucks trade O.J. Mayo (SG) and Jerryd Bayless (PG) to the Phoenix Suns for Goran Dragic (SG), Zoran Dragic (SG), and Archie Goodwin (SG):
Much like Kanter, the relationship between the better Dragic brother and Suns management is so strained that it is beyond repair.  I guess the Suns got here when they signed combo guard Eric Beldsoe to a five-year, $70 million contract and Isaiah Thomas to a four-year, $27 million contract (deescalates in annual value each season).  I am not sure what money that leaves for Dragic but it certainly means if he is on the Suns past the trade deadline that he is going to decline his $7.5 million player option for next season so the Suns will get nothing in return for a borderline Top 10 point guard.  Given the salary structure of the NBA, I bet Dragic signs an even bigger deal that Bledsoe did and apparently is only interested in playing in a big market so it feels like the Bucks might actually be giving up too much to rent Dragic for a playoff run but the cherry on top is Goodwin.  Unfortunately for Jordan Crawford, I've moved onto Goodwin as my sneaking good shooting guard that I think could have a relevant NBA playoff moment off the bench.  I see Goodwin as Gary Neal without the locker room baggage.  That or Goodwin is the Desmond Mason of the Ray Allen heist.  Trust me, I know Mayo is no Allen but I mention it only because at the time of the Allen/Payton deal some justified it by saying that Mason could be the best long-term asset in the deal, which was clearly NOT the case.

#1) Bucks trade O.J. Mayo (SG) and Jerryd Bayless (PG) to the New Orleans Pelicans for Eric Gordon (SG):
It is Masters-esque so cue Jim Nance's voice. "Hello friends and welcome to Cheesehead Sport Nut's annual tradition of somehow fake trading for the perpetually injured shooting guard Eric Goron.  I want to welcome in my boyfriend partner Sir Nick Faldo to break down how crazy this is."  What can I say, I am a sucker for Gordon.  If the Bucks just held onto Ray Allen, I would NOT be forced to try to conjure up deals for (potential) franchise shooting guards.  Honestly with how well Brandon Knight has been playing this year, I somehow think that can rub off on Gordon to somehow make him not only healthy but potentially salvageable.  Plus, I secretly want to give The Brow an unencumbered salary cap this summer for the Pelicans to go after another useful player, which is totally doable if they can move Gordon's crazy contract ($15 million this season and $15.5 million player option for next season).

If Hammond actually makes a move, which I am on records as hoping he doesn't do, check back for full coverage in this space.  In the meantime, enjoy watching The Greek Freak and Brandon Knight participate in the NBA All-Star Weekend festivities.  Hopefully one of them will actually play in the NBA All-Star Game in the next couple seasons.

Sunday, February 1, 2015

The 15 - Super Bowl Diversion Thanks to Rampant Roster Turnover

I figured I would run my monthly look at The 15 on Super Bowl Sunday as a nice diversion for Cheesehead sports fans like me that are probably still reeling from the improbable loss the Green Bay Packers suffered in the NFC Championship Game against the Seattle Seahawks.  In much more positive Cheesehead sports related developments, it is official that the 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks are not only inching towards becoming a lock for the NBA playoffs but besides the Atlanta Hawks they are arguably the best story in the NBA right now.  The Bucks won four of their last five games (only loss was a close one on the road the San Antonio Spurs) to close out the month of January with a record of 25-22.  This is all coming as The 15 is suddenly in major flux.  I thought the biggest shuffle to the minutes on The 15 was going to be filling the 29.5 minutes per game from the fallout of rookie small forward Jabari Parker's torn ACL.  It turns out that was just the start of not only a churn in the minutes on The 15 but also the members of The 15.  Keep in mind that The 15 contained 15 guaranteed contracts at the start of the season when Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond guaranteed backup point guard Kendall Marshall's contract two and a half months early than he needed to, which loomed large on the roster decisions that I am about to discuss.  Here are my updated thoughts on The 15:

2) Brandon Knight (PG, LR 3): I know this seems borderline crazy to put Knight ahead of rookie small forward Jabari Parker but I did this for two reasons.  One, Parker is out for the season with a knee injury so that hurts his trade value even though it seems like his ceiling is potentially limitless.  Two, Knight is putting up a very impressive 18.4 PER so far this season.  I know that Knight is going to be a restricted free agent this summer and could be a borderline max contract guy but the Bucks hold the cards for how they want to handle Knight going forward so the better Knight plays, the more he is going to cost the Bucks.  The real question that I do not quite know the answer to yet is whether Knight is truly evolving as a player or if Jason Kidd is really a much better NBA coach than I am thought he could ever be.  Only time will tell but so far the results are impressive.

The 15 4.0 for 2014-15
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 1)
2. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 3)
3. Jabari Parker (SF/PF, LR 2)
4. John Henson (PF/C, LR 4)
5. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 6)
6. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 7)
7. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 5)
8. Jared Dudley (SG/SF, LR 8)
9. Kendall Marshall (PG, LR 10)
10. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 11)
11. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG, LR 12)
12. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF, LR 14)
13. Damien Inglis (SF, LR 15)
14. Kenyon Martin (PF, N/R)
15. Jorge Gutierrez (PG, N/R)
Suspended
Larry Sanders
Cut
Nate Wolters (PG)
4) John Henson (PF/C, LR 4): My favorite full-time NBA writer is currently Zach Lowe from Grantland.com.  Lowe's boss Bill Simmons is close but he is NOT a full-time NBA writer, which gives Zach the nod.  Leaving my parsing of Grantland's content aside, Lowe had a great post on The Arrival of John Henson.  I am not sure I can add anything more to what Lowe wrote about Henson on the court.  Off the court though, we now officially know that Henson is a real building block for the Bucks.  The questions is how much will that building block cost.  My guess is in the $10 to $12 million per year range, which seems awfully expensive until you realize the Bucks signed currently suspended center Larry Sanders to a four-year, $44 million contract for his defense alone.  While Henson might not be quite as good defensively as Sanders yet but there is no question that Henson is much more polished offensively than Sanders, which might push Henson's price even higher when he is a restricted free agent following the 2015-15 NBA season.

14) Kenyon Martin (PF, N/R): The Bucks waived young, promising point guard Nate Wolters to clear a roster spot for over-the-hill power forward Kenyon Martin.  After the Bucks signed Martin to a couple 10-day contracts, they signed him for the rest of the season even though he has contributed just 1.6 points per game while averaging only 8.5 minutes a game in his 10 appearances.  I know Kidd and Martin are former teammates but that does NOT qualify the 37 year old Martin for a spot on The 15 over Wolters despite the lack of front-court depth.  Let's not forget that Martin played just 50 games over the last two seasons for the New York Knicks so it is not like the Bucks found this diamond in the rough.  I thought Kidd would stick to coaching and Hammond would stick to Building The 15 but this move makes me think Kidd is slowly taking over the front office too, which is what initially worried me when the Bucks traded for Kidd.

15) Jorge Gutierrez (PG, N/R): Just to add insult to injury, literally.  The Bucks lost promising backup point guard Kendall Marshall to a torn ACL when they played the Knicks on January 15th in London.  Let's not forget that the Bucks cut Wolters less than a week before that game to make way for Martin.  Since the NBA foolishly does NOT employ an injured reserve list that meant the Bucks needed to add another point guard so they added another player with ties to Kidd (played for the Nets last year when Kidd was the coach).  Again, it begs the question, is Hammond or Kidd running the front office?  Either way, it seems like Kidd didn't like Wolters very much.  I am not sure why but I can tell you that 99 our of 100 NBA personnel people would rather have Wolters than Gutierrez sadly Kidd, I mean Hammond, is that one guy.

Make sure to check back in a couple weeks for my 6th annual NBA Trade Deadline advice post for Hammond and/or Kidd depending on which one is making the roster decisions at that point.

Thursday, January 1, 2015

The 15 - Even Without Parker the Bucks Continue to Win

In my first two iterations of The 15 this year I was much more bullish on the 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks than most.  At the start of the season I deemed them a playoff worthy team and I did NOT back down from that in my next look at the team I just hedged by saying that I wanted to see the Bucks beat some better teams before we made them a playoff lock.  Since that post it has been the best of times and the worst of times for the Bucks all in one month.  The worst of times was December 15, 2014 but NOT for the reasons that I mentioned in my inaugural NBA General Manager's Buyers Remorse Day post.  Instead that day rookie small forward Jabari Parker tore his ACL to end his promising rookie season in a road win over the Phoenix Suns thanks to a crazy bank shot by shooting guard/small forward Khris Middleton.  The Bucks could have packed it in for the season but they showed some heart going 4-4 over their next games to finish the calendar year 2014 with a 17-16 record, which is two more wins then they had all last season.  Here are my updated rankings to The 15:

2) Jabari Parker (SF/PF, LR 2): When Bucks general manager John Hammond drafted Parker with the second pick in the 2014 NBA Draft it seemed like the ultimate no-lose pick.  If the 1st pick in the draft Andrew Wiggins turns out to be a stud that is NOT on Hammond given that Wiggins and Parker were the consensus top two picks in the draft.  My hope is that this is NOT a Marvin Williams situation where it turns out that some of the guys taken after Parker (Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart, etc.) show that there should have been more thought about whether there were other guys worth going in the Top 2 of the draft.  When Parker got hurt he was second on the Bucks in points per game (12.3) and minutes (29.5) but that should not be a surprise since he looked like an NBA-ready scorer during his freshman season at Duke.  What was a pleasant surprise is that Parker was at least serviceable on defense, which is much more than the Bucks thought they were getting in Parker's rookie year given how much he struggled defensively during his lone college season.  I wish Parker a speedy recovery and safe recovery.  No need to rush Parker back form such a serious injury.  I would rather have Parker sit out the first part of the 2015-16 season on the off-chance that it helps him not only decrease the chances of him suffering another catastrophic knee injury but it also allows him to come back at full-speed instead of playing 20 games at 75% to start the season because the Bucks need to look at Parker as a 15 year asset even if he decides to leave after five years.  If you question that theory, ask the Chicago Bulls how they feel about Derrick Rose re-injuring his knee a second time.

The 15 3.0 for 2014-15
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 1)
2. Jabari Parker (SF/PF, LR 2)
3. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 3)
4. John Henson (PF/C, LR 4)
5. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 5)
6. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 7)
7. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 9)
8. Jared Dudley (SG/SF, LR 8)
9. Larry Sanders (C, LR 6)
10. Kendall Marshall (PG, LR 10)
11. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 13)
12. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG, LR 12)
13. Nate Wolters (PG, LR 11)
14. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF, LR 14)
15. Damien Inglis (SF, LR 15)
9) Larry Sanders (C, LR 6): The Bucks have been without Sanders's services for the last four games due to "illness".  I put that in quotes because Larry Sanders is entering the Tyson Zone (copyright Bill Simmons).  We know that off the court Sanders enjoys fighting and smoking pot.  I am not judging, in fact I think one of those two things should be legal.  Unfortunately for Sanders he plays in a league where neither are legal and there are consequences for both so it will be interesting to see if he ever plays for the Bucks again.  In my my first look at The 15 this season I said this season was going to be a crossroads for Sanders and clearly he is getting to the end of the road.  At this point I am not sure the Bucks could trade him for anything so I might have him ranked too high at 9 but whenever I try to move him further down I get flashes of him turning into a more offensively polished Ben Wallace and pound my head against the keyboard in disappointment at how wrong things have gone for Sanders over the last couple seasons.

11) Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 13): It takes a big man to admit mistakes and I might finally be coming around on Pachulia.  Don't get me wrong, I still stand by my assertion that he is overpaid and was one of the worst moves two off-seasons ago.  I am not sure how much Gustavo Ayon signed for with Real Madrid but I know it is less than Pachulia is making.  So far this doesn't sound like much of a mea culpa but I am getting there.  Certain positions in professional sports are more expensive to fill than you think they should be.  Take backup catcher, because of service time alone most backup catchers make upwards of $1 million a year for catching every 5th day.  That seems like way too much money for their contributions on the field but that doesn't take into account all the intangible things they are doing with the starting catcher and pitchers when they are not in the game.  The same might be true for backup centers too.  I don't think Hammond ever thought Pachulia would be the de facto starting center given how highly (great pun huh) they thought of Sanders but even given all of the issues with Sanders off the court but Pachulia has been very effective in that role.  It turns out that skill set costs a few million more on the open market than I thought but it is has been indispensable for the Bucks this season.

I hope everyone is having a good start to 2015.  Make sure to check back at the end of January for my thoughts on The 15, which will form the basis for my annual NBA Trade Deadline advice post for Hammond in mid-February.

Monday, December 15, 2014

Building The 15 - NBA General Manager Buyer's Remorse Day

Despite front offices becoming much more savvy in the last decade thanks to the use of advanced stats, there are still NBA owners (I'm looking at you Vivek Ranadivé) and general managers (I'm looking at your Billy King) that cannot help themselves from making short-sided draft picks or handing out ridiculous free agents contracts.  The number of owners and general managers that fit the description just provided is decreasing each year, which is too bad because those folks make a number of decisions that I love to second-guess.  December 15th marks the first day that teams can trade a player they signed in the off-season.  Although mulligans are not allowed on these deals, NBA teams love to trade bad contracts for bad contracts in hopes that one man's trash is another man's treasure.  As a result, I thought I would help Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond wade through some of these bad contracts.

Although it seems like these bad contracts are going away, let's not forget that the NBA's revenue will dramatically increase in a couple years when their new nine-year, $24 billion national television contract kicks in, which means the salary cap will sky rocket too, so I hope NBA owners and general managers will revert back to their old ways of giving out more ridiculous contracts.  There is a very good chance that will happen given that some estimates have the salary cap going up as much as $21 million between the 2016-17 and the 2017-18 season from $66 million in 2016-17 to $87 million in 2017-18.  Besides being great economic news to NBA players and agents, this will also provide more silly decisions for people like me to second guess.

Here are a couple outlandish trades for Hammond to consider that involve players that signed a free agent contract last off-season:

Bucks trade Ersan Ilyasova (PF) & O.J. Mayo (SG) to the Phoenix Suns for Eric Bledsoe (PG/SG) and Archie Goodwin (SG):
Hammond would make this deal even if it meant giving up a future first round pick, something I rarely sign-off on doing, just on the off chance that he could steal a potential franchise player in Bledsoe.  Sure Bledsoe has a checkered injury history and is signed to what looks like an expensive long-term deal (five-years, $70 million) but given the impending increase in the salary cap, Bledsoe's deal might NOT be that expensive in a couple seasons.  Hammond will get very few chances to add a player of Beldsoe's caliber so he honestly has to take it.  Plus, I have a soft spot for young shooting guards that under perform when they first get into the NBA so getting Goodwin as a part of this deal is the cherry on top that allows the Bucks to acquire another cost-effective contract.  Although I wish this trade were possible, even if the Bucks include a future first round pick, realistically they will need to give up a better player to acquire Bledsoe.

Bucks trade Brandon Knight (PG) & Ersan Ilyasova (PF) to the Phoenix Suns for Eric Bledsoe (PG/SG) and Archie Goodwin (SG):
This iteration of the trade most likely alleviates the need for Hammond to throw in a draft pick to make the deal work but it also means the Bucks give up two of the three best players in the trade.  Despite the fact that the Suns just signed the Morris twins to contract extensions, Ilyasova seems like the perfect stretch four that can shoot well from anywhere on the floor (I know he has struggled with his shot this season but I blame all the injuries he has had to with with) to round out their roster.  The problem with this working in practice is that Knight is due a huge contact extension that might be as large as Bledsoe's deal after this season so although the Suns move Bledsoe's five-year, $70 million contract, they are actually taking on even more long-term money in this deal.  Clearly the Suns would say no first to this deal, which probably makes it a non-starter but still fun to think about especially if you are a Bucks fan.

Bucks trade O.J. Mayo (SG) to the Charlotte Hornets for Lance Stephenson (SG):
The ghost of Ray Allen has hung over the franchise for nearly a decade since the artist formerly known as the Seattle Supersonics stole him from the Bucks, which is why I continually search for a franchise shooting guard for the Bucks.  My buy-low candidate the last few years was Eric Gordon but thankfully that never worked out for the Bucks since Gordon's injury issues make Bledsoe look like the healthiest player in the NBA.  With Gordon no longer in my sights, I think it makes sense to turn to Stephenson.  At one point last season there was talk that Stephenson could be a max contract guy if he hit free agency.  That was a cute thought if you were Stephenson or his agent but the rest of the NBA knows that he is an absolute head case, which ultimately lead to his departure from the Indiana Pacers via free agency.  In terms of comps, Chandler Parsons signed a three-years, $46 million deal with the Dallas Mavericks.  That felt like it was the floor for Stephenson but he ultimately signed a three-year, $27 million contract with only the first two years guaranteed so the third year is a club option.  I know this next statement makes me captain obvious but boy did the market fall out for Stephenson in the last year, I just wonder whether it was too big of a fall or a proper market correction.  Even though Mayo is playing much better this season than last season, this is essentially a $2 million gamble (Mayo earns $8 million each of the next two seasons while Stephenson earns $9 million per year) on getting a franchise shooting guard.  Don't forget the Bucks acquired the perfect veteran in Jared Dudley, which could actually help keep Stephenson in check.  I know that is a tall order for Dudley but let's not forget that Stephenson is just 24 years old too so there is an outside chance that he could still mature.  Despite all of Stephenson's issues both on and off the court, this is the kind of swing for the fences trade that I know Hammond will never do but would love to see him at least entertain.

Bucks trade Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG) to the Sacremento Kings for Ben McLemore (SG):
ESPN's NBA Trade Machine does NOT allow you to include draft picks but the Bucks would have to part with at least one of their multitude of extra second round picks from the next few draft to make this trade work.  Keep in mind that the Bucks still have all of those extra second round picks even though they threw away two when they acquired head coach Jason Kidd.  I say threw away because although Kidd has been a much better coach this season than I ever thought he could be, it was clear that the Brooklyn Nets wanted Kidd out so they might have even fired Kidd before the Bucks showed interest.  For real NBA junkies, which you clearly have to be if you are reading this post (or a member of my immediate family), Grantland.com had a great behind-the-scenes look at the 2014 NBA Draft for the Sacramento Kings.  I love their new owner, the aforementioned Vivek Ranadivé, repeatedly "asking" if Nic Stauskas was the right pick and getting the entire room to say "Nic Rocks" on their welcome conference call with him after they foolishly took him over Elfrid Payton.  That means McLemore's days in Sacramento are numbered even though he is their starting shooting guard this season.  Bayless and a second round pick may seem like a low-ball offer but NBA teams see the writing on the wall with McLemore so it might be better for the Kings to get something for McLemore if Stauskas is truly the person they envision as their long-term shooting guard.

There is less than a 1% chance that any of the trades above happen but it is still fun to speculate.  If Hammond actually does make a move, make sure to check back for full coverage in this space.  If Hammond doesn't make a move, make sure to check back in early 2015 for my updates to The 15.

Sunday, November 30, 2014

The 15 - So Far, So Good

At the start of the season I was more bullish on the 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks than most given that almost everyone outside of the organization viewed the Bucks as a lock for the lottery and most thought they would be one of the five worst teams in the NBA while I viewed them as a playoff team with an outside chance at the 5th or 6th seed.  With the Bucks currently 10-8 in the underwhelming Eastern Conference you would think I would be even more confident about my preseason pick but I am not quite ready to say I told you so given that most of their wins are over lackluster teams.  Of the 10 wins so far this season, their only impressive wins were at home over the Memphis Grizzlies and on the road over the Miami Heat.  There is no doubt that long-term the Bucks will only go as far as The Greek Freak and Jabari Parker take them but the more interesting thing is that some of the guys that I had low expectations for going into this season performed much better so far than I expected.  Here are my updated rankings to The 15:

5) Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 6): I've always been a fan of Ilysova's game, which is why I've affectionately referred to him as The Poor Man's Dirk but even in my wildest dreams I would not have predicted that Ilyasova would lead the team in PER at 18.6.  What makes that number even more impressive for Ilyasova is that he is an offense first stretch power forward that doesn't pass or rebound all that well so he can't even pad his PER with cheap rebounds or assists.  The reason that Ilyasova has such a high PER is that he is actually shooting over .500 (currently .503) from the field and .333 on three-pointers so far this season.  I am under no grand illusions that Ilyasova will turn into an All-Star but we are starting to see him thrive on the offensive end as his defensive liabilities are sufficiently covered up by all the other long/athletic guys on The 15.  Given how well Ilyasova played so far this season, it might make sense to sell high on him sooner rather than later.

The 15 2.0 for 2014-15
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 1)
2. Jabari Parker (SF/PF, LR 2)
3. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 3)
4. John Henson (PF/C, LR 4)
5. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 6)
6. Larry Sanders (C, LR 5)
7. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 11)
8. Jared Dudley (SG/SF, LR 9)
9. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 7)
10. Kendall Marshall (PG, LR 12)
11. Nate Wolters (PG, LR 8)
12. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG, LR 10)
13. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 13)
14. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF, LR 14)
15. Damien Inglis (SF, LR 15)
7) O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 11): The conventional wisdom is that when professional athletes are in the last year of their contract they have an incentive to preform to earn a contract extension but once they sign that extension their incentives can go out the window so they don't perform as well in the first season of their new deal.  Last off-season Mayo signed a three-year, $24 million contract and did just that.  The season got off to a brutal start for Mayo when he showed up out of shape and barely even played himself into shape by the end of the season.  I am not sure whether Mayo is preparing for his contract year next year but this season he not only showed up in shape but it looks like he worked on his game on both ends of the floor.  Suffice to say, Mayo's improvement is the biggest surprise on The 15 so far this season given that I would have traded Mayo for a bag of balls before the start of the season. Instead Mayo started a couple games recently and is currently 4th of the team in scoring, averaging 10.8 points per game.  Much like Ilyasova, I am torn on whether the Bucks should try to trade Mayo now to sell high on him.  Given all the back court depth on The 15, I would actually be more inclined to move Mayo than Ilyasova.

15) Damien Inglis (SF, LR 15): The Bucks are currently under the salary cap so they are NOT able to use the Disable Player Exception on Inglis even though he might not play for the Bucks this season.  I mention this because I've long taken issue with the fact that NBA does NOT employ a disabled list like they do in baseball.  Inglis is a great candidate since he is out with a broken foot until at least early 2015.  Although only 12 players can dress for each game, the Bucks were recently without Zaza Pachulia's services too, which meant the Bucks only had 12 healthy guys.  If anyone else got hurt that would leave the Bucks short.  I've long thought that NBA teams should be able to temporarily go above The 15 when they suffer a number of injuries, the question is when will the NBA actually do something about it?

Monday, December 15, 2014 is an important day on the NBA calendar because that is the first day that a player signed on or before Monday, September 15, 2014 can be traded.  It should actually officially be called NBA General Manger Buyer's Remorse Day.  We might even be able to get it sponsored by Christal or some other luxury good that NBA players blow money on once they sign a lucrative contract extension.  I will do my best to cobble together a couple realistic trades for Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond for NBA General Manager Buyer's Remorse Day.  I presume that advice will be ignored but if Hammond does make any moves on or before then, make sure to check back in this space for full coverage.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

The 15 - What else is there besides Jabari & The Greek Freak?

The 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks start the seasons on the road tonight against the artists formerly known as the Charlotte Bobcats.  Although it is just a season opener on the road, today could go down as one of the most important moments in franchise history given that for the first time in almost a decade there is real hope that the Bucks will actually be relevant at a national level.  With all due respect to long time former Bucks owner Herb Kohl, most of that optimism stems from the fact that the Bucks have new majority owners in Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry along with ton of local minority owners that seem to want to build a long-term NBA title contender, even if that involves some non-playoff growing pains, instead of just being an occasional fringe playoff contender.

We are less than a year into the new ownership group's tenure but the team already looks in great shape given that Bucks general manager John Hammond added two potential franchise players via the last two drafts.  Hammond drafted The Greek Freak with the 15th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft and Jabari Parker with the 2nd pick in the 2014 NBA Draft.  Sure the new ownership group stubbed their toe when they acquired Jason Kidd as their new head coach without involving general manager John Hammond in the process but if that is the biggest misstep of the new ownership group, the Bucks are in good hands.

There are nine guys on The 15 for the Bucks to start the 2014-15 season that were on The 15 at the end of the 2013-14 season: Giannis Antetokounmpo, John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova, Brandon Knight, O.J. Mayo, Khris Middleton, Zaza Pachulia, Larry Sanders, and Nate Wolters.  That means there are six guys from the final 2013-14 team that are no longer with the organization: Jeff Adrien, Carlos Delfino, Miroslav Raduljica, Ramon Sessions, Ekpe Udoh, and Chris Wright.  Hammond replaced those six guys with six other guys via trade (Jared Dudley), free agency (Jerryd Bayless), a waiver claim (Kendall Marshall) and the 2014 NBA Draft (Damien Inglis, Johnny O'Bryant III, and Jabari Parker).  I gave a detailed breakdown of my thoughts all the moves above in late August and I've seen nothing since to change my thoughts other than that I am liking the Dudley trade more and more everyday.

Sure The Greek Freak and Jabari will ultimately determine whether the Bucks actually turn into a perennial playoff contender but there are some other very talented guys on The 15 too so here is my look at a couple of other players on The 15:

3) Brandon Knight (PG): There is a school of thought that unless you have a potential Top 5 point guard (Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, John Wall, or Russell Westbrook) that you do NOT overpay point guards because the difference between the sixth and twenty sixth point guard is not that big.  I have no grand illusions that Knight will turn into the best point guard in the NBA but given his diverse sill set, I do think he is a player worth paying fairly big long-term money.  The question is how much money will Knight command.  Based on last season, it looks like Knight could be a franchise point guard with a decent chance to be a Top 10 point guard.  Worst-case scenario, Knight is a combo guard that is a 3rd or 4th option on a really good playoff team.  Knight can become a restricted free agent this off-season.  In terms of potential comps for Knight's extension, a couple of good comps on the low end are Jeff Teague's four-year, $32 million contract and Mike Conley's five-year, $40 million contract.  A couple of good comparisons on the high end are Jrue Holliday's four-year, $41 million contract and Ty Lawson's four-year, $48 million contract.  Since I am not related the Knight, I would much rather see the Bucks get Knight signed to a deal like Teague's or Conley's but if Knight performs well this season I could see him pushing for a much more expensive extension and possibly even a max deal.  Yeah, you read that correctly that Knight might be a max player, especially given the upcoming spike in NBA revenue thanks to their new national television contract, which will result in a huge jump in the salary cap.  Knight bet on himself by not agreeing to long-term extension before the season with the Bucks.  My guess is that the Bucks and Knight ultimately work out a long-term deal in the off-season, the question is whether Knight has a below average season to hurt his market value or a great season to push his value into the max stratosphere.

The 15
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF)
2. Jabari Parker (SF/PF)
3. Brandon Knight (PG)
4. John Henson (PF/C)
5. Larry Sanders (C)
6. Ersan Ilyasova (PF)
7. Khris Middleton (SF)
8. Nate Wolters (PG)
9. Jared Dudley (SG/SF)
10. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG)
11. O.J. Mayo (SG)
12. Kendall Marshall (PG)
13. Zaza Pachulia (C)
14. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF)
15. Damien Inglis (SF)
5) Larry Sanders (C): Speaking of expensive contract extensions, this is the first year of Sanders' four-year, $44 million extension.  Sanders is tied with JaVale McGee as the 16th highest paid center this season. Right now, based on how Sanders fought off the court and played on the court last season, he is no where close to being the 16th best center in the NBA yet the Bucks received a number of calls to see if Sanders was available last off-season.  I don't know what teams were offering but my guess is that teams were trying to buy low on Sanders given how far his stock fell.  Given Sanders's impressive defensive skills and his improving offensive abilities, if he can keep his head on straight he might turn into a steal at $11 million a season.  That or Sanders could continue to get into trouble off the court, which will hamper his growth on the court.  If that happens, Hammond will not only regret that he signed Sanders to an expensive extension but he will be even more disappointed that he double-down when he didn't move sanders when he had the chance.  Hey now Larry, the ball is in your court.

12) Kendall Marshall (PG): I thought it was a no brainer to claim Marshall off waivers from the Los Angeles Lakers given that he would cost the Bucks a mere $915,243 for his services this season.  That seems like a pittance by NBA standards for a backup point guard.  The Bucks decided to guarantee Marshall's contract at the start of the season despite the fact they could have held off till January 10, 2015 to guarantee his contract for this season.  Sure the odds are low that the Bucks would have cut Marshall this season but why not keep the flexibility until early 2015 in case there are a ton of injuries that would necessitate making a move since the Bucks already had 14 guaranteed contracts on The 15 before they guaranteed Marshall's contract.  I guess now The 15 should be called The (Financially) Guaranteed 15.  Given that everyone on The 15 is expendable besides The Greek Freak and Jabari Parker this move seemed borderline ridiculous.  That was until I realized that Marshall’s agent is Alex Saratsis.  I've never heard of Saratsis until today and the only reason that I learned about Saratsis is that he is The Greek Freak's agent so that move was clearly a courtesy by the Bucks to get in the good graces with Saratsis given that the Bucks are going to have potentially franchise altering negotiations with him over the next few years.

I am not a huge fan of season predictions but feel an obligation to make a quick one given that this is a season preview of The 15.  Despite the fact that almost everyone thinks the Bucks are going to be one of the worst teams in the league, I actually think they will fight for the 5th or 6th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  If Hammond makes any moves, make sure to check out my thoughts in this space, otherwise check back in a month when I have my updated rankings for The 15.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Building The 15 - The Good, The Mediocre, The Bad, & The Ugly 1.0

Over the last few seasons Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond has done his best to make the Bucks a playoff contender without going into full rebuild mode.  That dual approach was greatly helped when Bucks got the second pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, which Hammond used to select Duke freshman small forward/power forward Jabari Parker.  With Parker and The Greek Freak on The 15, assuming they sign extensions with the Bucks after their rookie contracts expire (knock on wood), for the first time since The Big Three left town the Bucks actually have two potential franchise pillars on The 15.  After Parker and The Greek Freak, the rest of The 15 has some interesting pieces that Hammond continues to tinker with in hopes of putting together the right mix of young guys and veterans to (barely) make the playoffs.  Here is my review of Hammond's moves since the 2014 NBA Draft.

The Good:
The Bucks claimed point guard Kendall Marshall after the LA Lakers waived him. I was not as high on Marshall as others going into the 2012 NBA Draft and so far Marshall has been a disappointment, which is probably why the Lakers waived him, but it is way too early to give up on a 23 year-old. Since the Bucks had the worst record in the league they had the first chance to claim Marshall after he was cut by the Lakers.  My guess is that a number of teams put in claims to buy low on Marshall but we will never know if that is actually true.  The move does make me wonder why the Lakers thought they could pass Marshall through waivers and resign him though. Best case scenario the Bucks get a backup point guard to groom behind Brandon Knight in hopes of turning him into a potential starter down the road. Worst case scenario the Bucks include Marshall as a salary filler in a trade or cut him with no salary cap ramifications if they find a better player.  That is a long way of saying that I see no downside in claiming Marshall.

The Mediocre:
The Bucks traded shooting guard/small forward Carlos Delfino, center Miroslav Raduljica, and a 2015 second round pick to the L.A. Clippers for small forward/power forward Jared Dudley and a 2017 first round pick.  Originally I did not think the Bucks gave up a second round pick in the deal, which is why I was higher on the trade yesterday than I am right now.  Both picks are the Clippers' picks so they fall where the Clippers select so odds are that they end up at the end of their respective rounds given the quality of The 15 for the Clippers for the foreseeable future.  A late first round draft pick is a nice assets for the Bucks given their inability to attract marque free agents.  Unfortunately the first round pick comes at the expense of a second round pick, which is not as good of an asset (obviously) but a nice asset nonetheless.  Given how many players the Bucks have under contract for next season, I understand the logic in trading two players for one and a 2015 pick for a 2017 pick.

When you add it all up, the Bucks actually save money this season with Delfino and Raduljica scheduled to earn $4.75 million while Dudley is scheduled to earn $4.3 million.  The 2015-16 season is where it gets interesting because Delfino and Raduljica are again scheduled to earn $4.75 million but both contracts are not guaranteed while Dudley holds a $4.3 million player option.  Even if Dudley picks up that option, it means the Bucks acquired a late first round pick for less than $4 million and a second round pick.  This trade would have been under "The Good" section if the second round pick was not included in the trade.

Given Delfino's injury issues (missed all last season and might miss part of this season), Raduljica might be the more useful of the two players for the Clippers.  Moving to the Bucks, Dudley played well in his last three seasons in Phoenix (2010-11 to 2012-13) averaging roughly 15 PER each season but struggled for the Clippers last season when he posted 8.91 PER.  In fact, Dudley played so bad last season that he couldn't even get on the court in the playoffs despite the Clippers being thin on the wing.  Best case scenario, Dudley plays like he did for the Suns while becoming a locker room leader next season and opts out before the 2015-16 season for one more big free agent deal. Worst case scenario, Dudley struggles and exercises his player option thus eating up $8.6 million in salaries for two seasons of lackluster play.

For those scoring at home, at the 2013 NBA Trade Deadline the Bucks turned Beno Udrih, Tobias Harris, and Doron Lamb into Redick, Gustavo Ayon, and Ish Smith.  Last off-season, the Bucks signed Raduljica to a three-year, $4.5 million contract.  The Bucks, Clippers, and Suns swung a three-team deal last off-season that allowed the Bucks to turn Redick into small forward Caron Butler and a 2015 second round draft pick from the Clippers via a sign-and-trade.  In that same trade, Dudley moved to the Clippers and the Clippers sent combo guard Eric Bledsoe to the Suns.

I presume Udrih would be playing elsewhere since his contract expired after the 2012-13 season so let's exclude him from this analysis.  The tenure for Butler and Redick was rocky to say the least, which is why neither is with the team right now.  Thus would the Bucks rather have Harris and Lamb or Dudley and a late first round pick in the 2017 NBA Draft?  I am not as big of a fan of Harris as other are so I would rather have the ladder.

The Bad:
The Bucks signed Jerryd Bayless to a two-year, $6 million guaranteed contact.  That means Bayless will play for his sixth team in seven NBA season. That feels expensive for a guy that posted low teens in PER at everyone one of his stops in the NBA besides 17.7 PER in 31 games for the Toronto Raptors in the 2011-12 NBA season.  Instead of forking over that much for Bayless, I would have offered the mini mid-level exception to combo guard Ramon Sessions.  Not only do I think Sessions is more useful than Bayless but the Bucks could have saved about $3 million over two years in the process.

Truthfully the Bucks should have kept a spot The 15 open for rotating non-guaranteed contracts instead of signing Bayless or Sessions but Sessions is clearly an asset given that the Houston Rockets are interested in acquiring him via a sign and trade so that is the only reason why I even broached the idea. The Bucks need to continue to amassing cost-effective contracts (think Kendall Marshall and Chris Wright) as opposed to overpriced contracts (think Bayless, O.J. Mayo, or Zaza Pachulia). Case and point, the Bucks were able to use Delfino and Raduljica to acquire a first round pick.  I sure don't see that being the case with Bayless.

The Ugly:
Last but certainly not least, the Bucks traded two second round picks to the Brooklyn Nets for the coaching rights of Jason Kidd.  That meant that the Bucks fired head coach Larry Drew after just one season to make way for Kidd.  Trust me, I am not a huge Drew fan but I am worried that Kidd is coming to the Bucks to become a dual head coach and general manager despite the fact that he only has one year of experience doing either job. Sure it is problematic that trading for Kidd cost the Bucks two second round picks (one in 2015 and another in 2018 or 2019) as well as an average annual salary of $4 or $5 million a year for three years but the way the transaction was handled worries me even more.  When the Kidd rumors started to swirl, I broke down in grave detail how much I was against the Bucks trading for Kidd.  I think Hammond agrees with me because the new co-owners Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry pulled off the deal behind Hammond's back.  After the fact, Edens and Lasry admitted that they made a mistake by trading for Kidd without including Hammond in the process but the damage was already done to Hammond and the franchise so I find the apology hollow.

When Herb Kohl owned the Bucks he held veto power (apparently said no to a trade that would have brought Zach Randolph to the Bucks) but I do not think he tinkered that much other than publicly stating that he did not want the Bucks to go into full rebuild mode.  Now the Bucks have new co-owners that clearly want to meddle in their new investment that resulted in them bringing in a new coach that asked for more control over front office decisions after just one season with his former employer that was turned down and is ultimately why he works for the Bucks as opposed to the Nets.  Unfortunately for Hammond the writing is on the wall so he better dust off his resume because I think it is more likely that Kidd is the general manager of the Bucks for the 2015-16 season than Hammond.

With all of the above as the backdrop, here are my current thoughts on how the 16 players stack-up for The 15 for the 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks:

Point Guard (3): Brandon Knight, Jerryd Bayless, and Kendall Marshall

Shooting Guard (2): Nate Wolters and O.J. Mayo

Small Forward (4): Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jared Dudley, Damien Inglis, and Chris Wright

Power Forward (5): Jabari Parker, John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova, Khris Middleton, and Johnny O'Bryant III

Center (2): Larry Sanders and Zaza Pachulia

The Bucks repeatedly said that they want Inglis to play in the NBA this season, which they confirmed today when they signed him to a three-year contract worth a maximum of $2.75 million.  The first two years of the contract are guaranteed (roughly $850,000 each season) while the Bucks hold a team option for the third year (a little less than $1 million).  I wish the Bucks kept Inglis in Europe one more season because that would allow Marshall and Wright to both stay on The 15 next season.  Unless the Bucks make another move that means either Marshall or Wright will have to be cut before next season.

There are rumors that the Bucks are actively shopping Ilyasova and that teams are asking about Sanders.  If the Bucks move Ilyasova or Sanders now they are selling low though so I hope they hold onto both to see if they can improve next season to turn each into a tastier trade asset.  I don't feel that way about Mayo or Pachulia though so if the Bucks can move either of those guys without taking on more long-term guaranteed money, I am fine with that.  Don't hold your breath though because I have a better chance of joining the Bucks' front office than another NBA team being that gullible.

I hope you enjoyed my first installment of "The Good, The Mediocre, The Bad, & The Ugly" for this off-season for the Bucks.  I am hoping to be able to add "The Great" to the front of the name of the post and drop "The Mediocre, The Bad, & The Ugly"; but that is up to Hammond, Kidd, Edens, Lasry, or whomever is currently in charge of the Bucks.  If the Bucks make any more moves this off-season, make sure to check back in this space for full coverage.

Monday, June 30, 2014

Building The 15 - A Quick Look at The 15 for John Hammond or Possibly Jason Kidd Following the 2014 NBA Draft

I planned a short post with advice for how Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond should approach free agency following my review of the 2014 NBA Draft.  With that post in the can Saturday afternoon and ready to run first thing Monday as a little diversion for the start of the work week, news broke late Saturday night that the Bucks and Brooklyn Nets were engaged in serious discussions regarding compensation for the Nets to let current head coach Jason Kidd out of the last three years of the four-year, $10.5 million contract that he signed with the Nets before last season.  Apparently this stemmed from the fact that Kidd approached Nets ownership about an expanded front-office role that included say in roster moves but was rebuffed, which lead Kidd to look for a new employer.

Kidd experienced tons of turmoil as coach of the Nets, which was his first season moving from playing to coaching.  Sure the Nets had an over-priced and older but star drive roster last season but that was a big part of the reason the Nets hired Kidd because he was supposed to handle his "peers" given that he actually played in the NBA for the New York Knicks for the 2012-13 season.  Early in the season the Nets struggled but instead of shouldering the blame, Kidd tried to place blame elsewhere starting with lead assistant coach Lawrence Frank.  Despite being Kidd's hand-picked lead assistant, a little over a month into the season, Kidd made Frank the fall guy when he removed Frank from the bench to instead focus on scouting despite being reportedly the highest paid assistant coach (six-years, $6 million) in the NBA last season.

Prior to this Kidd debacle, the new Bucks co-owners Marc Lasry and Wesley Edens have handled everything perfectly since they bought the Bucks from Herb Kohl at the end of last season their first official act was to send Mallory Edens as the team representative to the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery, which made for one of the most awkward Twitter situations of 2014 as grown men digitally drooled over Edens.  Although Edens did not deliver the first pick despite the fact that the Bucks had the worst record in the NBA, she will go down as the most memorable thing from the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery.

Even though the Bucks posted their worst record in franchise history, the new ownership group along with the second pick in the 2014 NBA Draft gave fans hope that things could turnaround fast next year.  Instead of making flashy moves, the new ownership group went on a grassroots tour where they interacted with fans in-person and online.  The new ownership group openly discussed a new arena but stressed the need to improve The 15.  Instead of replacing coaches or members of the front-office, the new ownership group said they were going to give each group a season to keep their respective jobs.  Trust me, I did not like when Hammond hired Larry Drew as head coach last off-season but do believe Drew and Hammond should have at least one more season.  It looks like Hammond will get another season but I would he shocked if Drew is employed by the Bucks at the end of the week.

Apparently second round pick(s) are being discussed as compensation for Kidd.  Let's not confuse Kidd with the second coming of Phil Jackson.  I am not sure what Kidd has done so far since shifting from playing to coaching to prove that he is a even a quality head coach let alone a guy worthy of being a coach with say over personnel decisions too.  Let's see him handle just coaching before giving him front-office responsibilities too.  Thankfully the current reports are that the Bucks envision Kidd solely as a coach.

Before the 2014 NBA Draft I advised Hammond how to approach restricted (power forward Ekpe Udoh) and unrestricted (power forward Jeff Adrien and combo guard Ramon Sessions) free agents.  Following the draft, my advice remains essentially the same, especially if Hammond and/or Kidd can somehow how get teams to take on some of the bloated contracts on The 15.  Following the 2014 NBA Draft, here is my current depth chart for The 15:

Point Guard (1): Brandon Knight

Shooting Guard (3): Nate Wolters, O.J. Mayo, and Carlos Delfino

Small Forward (4): Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Damien Inglis, and Chris Wright

Power Forward (4): John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova, Khris Middleton, and Johnny O'Bryant III

Center (3): Larry Sanders, Zaza Pachulia, and Miroslav Raduljica

As you can see above, the Bucks already have 15 guys projected to be under contract for next season once they sign their three draft picks so that leaves the Bucks without any real open roster spots.  Thankfully the Bucks have some guys currently on The 15 like Wright and Radulijca with either a low cap number or only a partially guaranteed contract so that gives the Bucks some wiggle room.  Still Hammond's roster construction flies in the face of my theory of leaving the last three spots on The 15 for low-priced, non-guaranteed contracts that that you can churn on a weekly basis, if necessary.  Given that The 15 is currently front-court heavy, I would be shocked if the Bucks did NOT add at least one ball handler given that they are light at that position despite having a number of point forwards on The 15.

In order to have real wiggle room to actually sign free agents though, the Bucks would need to offload some of their expensive contracts without giving up draft picks or taking on more long-term money.  There are four candidates to move: Mayo, Ilyasova, Sanders, and Pachulia.  Last season teams tried to buy low on Ilyasova and Sanders but I would hold onto those guys because I see them being the third or fourth best player on a playoff contender when healthy and with their head screwed on straight.  That means I would trade Mayo's or Pachulia's bloated contracts, pun in the case of Mayo, in a heartbeat.  Unfortunately I see both of those as a long-shot without taking on equally horrible contracts.

I am not sure what the Bucks would do with the salary cap space anyhow whether the Bucks have Kidd in the fold or not because marque free agents are NOT interested in signing with the Bucks since thy do not yet have a Top 10 NBA player and the team plays in Milwaukee.  Thus the Bucks need to lure free agents by drafting superstars that entice free agents.  Thankfully there is hope on that front with The Greek Freak and Parker on The 15.  Right now that is hope more than production but if The Greek Freak and Parker backup their limitless potential with production, the Bucks might actually have a shot to sign marquee free agents.

I am not a fan of giving the Nets anything more than a bag of balls for Kidd's service as a coach and/or member of the front office.  Plus it will be super awkward to keep Drew as head coach if the Bucks "miss-out" on Kidd.  There is no way that the Bucks are landing one of the marquee free agents this off-season like LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony so my advice is to pass on Kidd and let the high-end market settle out before making a single free agent contract offer.  At that point, the Bucks should bottom feed to improve the bottom third of The 15 with rotational players on the cheap.  If any of those guys turn out to be worth having long-term, great.  If not, at least the Bucks are building a cost-effective, flexible roster.  Unfortunately I am not in charge so I see Kidd becoming a member of the Bucks by the end of the week.  Either way, it will be interesting to see how the next few days play out.

Friday, June 27, 2014

Building The 15 - 2014 Milwaukee Bucks Draft Picks

This was my fourth year doing a "mock" first round NBA Draft (2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014) and my fifth year reviewing Milwaukee Bucks general manger John Hammond's performance in the actual draft (2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013).

Usually there are a ton of trades in the first round of the NBA Draft, which makes it really hard to marry pick, player, and team correctly.  True to form, there were a ton of trades in the first round of the 2014 NBA Draft.  I only nailed players and team for the first two picks out of 30 in the first round of the 2014 NBA Draft: Cleveland Cavaliers took Andrew Wiggins (SG, Kansas) and the Bucks took Jabari Parker (SF, Duke).

Although that seems like I did a horrible job, for the second year in a row I correctly predicted 24 out of 30 players* that went in the first round of the draft.  I actually should have predicted 25 but somehow inexplicably left Indiana power forward Noah Vonleh out of my first round mock draft.  I am not as high on Vonleh as others but had him as the 9th or 10th best prospect in the draft so it was merely a brain fart that I somehow forgot to include him in my mock draft.  Of the 6 guys** that I thought should go in the first round, all but two went by the 38th pick and they all were drafted by the 46th pick.

Here is a full breakdown of the four players that the Milwaukee Bucks drafted in the 2014 NBA Draft:

1st Round (2nd Overall): Jabari ("The Franchise") Parker
Position: Small Forward
Age: 19
Birth date: March 15, 1994
Birthplace: Chicago, IL
School: Duke
Class: Freshman
Height: 6'8"
Weight: 241 lbs
Reach: 8'8"
Wingspan
: 7'0"
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford)
: Super skilled wing, can score from anywhere on the floor, elite basketball instincts and IQ, excellent passer, good ball handler for his size, good rebounder, high character, and great motor
Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): A good but not elite athlete, can be a liability on defense, can sometimes struggle against long athletic player, and lacks ideal conditioning
Other Possible Picks: Dante Exum (PG, Australia), Joel Embiid (C, Kansas), and Marcus Smart (PG, Oklahoma State)
Twitter: @JabariParker
Tweets:

Analysis: My tweets immediately following the pick don't convey how excited I am about the picks for the Bucks.  Teams hope to not pick in the Top 5 regularly but getting a talent like Parker with the second pick is a rarity since he would have been the first pick in the 2013 NBA Draft if he went straight from high school to the NBA.  Plus only three players drafted in the Top 4 since the start of the NBA Lottery in 1985 won an NBA Champion with the team that drafted them.  Two are fairly easy, David Robinson and Tim Duncan as staples of the San Antonio Spurs.  The third is Darko Milicic, which is borderline comical given that the Detroit Pistons won the 2004 NBA Championship despite Darko's services even though they drafted him instead of Carmelo Antony, Chris Bosh, or Dwyane Wade with second pick in the loaded 2003 NBA Draft.

Parker's freshman season at Duke was dissected ad nausea.  There were rumors that Parker had a hurt foot going into the season, which hurt his conditioning so he played heavier than I expect him to play in the NBA.  Even playing heavy, Parker was able to score almost at will last season.  Unfortunately for how well Parker played offensively, he struggled just as much defensively.  There is one hopeful school of thought that if Parker gets in shape, he might actually improve his defense in the NBA.  Even if Parker struggles on the defensive end, let's not forget that the Bucks will most likely start him in the front-court alongside The Greek Freak and Larry Sanders, which will go a long way towards covering up his defensive limitations if he can't improve on that end of the court in the NBA.

Mark my words, if Parker stays in Milwaukee for his entire career he will have his number retired and give the Bucks a legitimate chance to win their first NBA Title since 1971.


2nd Round (31st Overall): Damien ("Musculaire") Inglis
Position: Small Forward
Age:19
Birth date: May 20, 1995
Birthplace: Cayenne, French Guiana
School: N/A
Class:N/A
Height: 6'8"
Weight: 240 lbs
Reach: 9'0"
Wingspan
: 7'3"
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford)
: Long athletic forward, NBA strength, excellent defender, good rebounder, and strong finisher around the basket
Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Needs to improve his jump shot and a bit of a twiner
Other Possible Picks: K.J. Daniels (SF, Clemson), Cleanthony Early (SF, Wichita State), and Jarnell Stokes (PF, Tennessee)
Twitter
: @DamienINGLIS
Tweets:

Analysis: The Bucks added a muscular version of Parker in Inglis.  Unfortunately Inglis is currently rehabbing a broken foot.  Despite only being 19, if Inglis had a healthy foot he would be a starter on their summer league team and possibly even push for being a part of the rotation next season.  Worst case, I see Inglis as a rich man's The Prince (Luc Richard Mbah a Moute).  Best case, the Bucks bought low on the next European stud.


2nd Round (36th Overall): Johnny ("The Leprechaun") O'Bryant
Position: Power Forward
Age: 21
Birth date: June 1, 1993
Birthplace: Cleveland, MS
School: LSU
Class: Junior
Height: 6'9"
Weight: 250 lbs
Reach: N/A
Wingspan
: N/A
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford)
: Traditional power forward, does most of his damage in the paint, excellent rebounder, and strong/physical player
Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Just an average athlete, lacks consistency, and has had conditioning issues in the past
Other Possible Picks: Glenn Robinson III (SF, Michigan), Nikola Jokić (PF/C, Serbia), and Walter Tavares (C, Carpe Verde)
Twitter
: @OBryant_The3rd
Tweet:
Analysis: Hammond could have made the 2014 NBA Draft the draft of the small forward if he took Glenn Robinson III.  Sure that would leave the Bucks with three too many small forwards but the Bucks need to amass talent where ever possible, irrespective of position.  Plus, unless the Bucks make a few trades they have a glut of power forwards on The 15 too so its not like O'Bryant is filling a huge need anyhow.  There is no chance that Ekpe Udoh returns to The 15 now, which could be good news for his book club because I am not sure another NBA team will make him an offer this off-season.  Much like Parker, the Bucks need to do everything in their power to get O'Bryant in shape for next season, which will give him a give him an outside chance to crack the 10-man rotation.


2nd Round (48th Overall): Lamar ("Snowbird") Patterson
Position: Small Forward
Age: 22
Birth date: August 12, 1991
Birthplace: Lancaster, PA
School: Pittsburgh
Class: Senior
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 226 lbs
Reach: 8'3"
Wingspan
: 6'11"
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford)
: All-around player, good shooter with range, excellent passer for his size, solid rebounder, and very versatile
Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Doesn't do any one thing great and not an elite athlete
Other Possible Picks: Alec Brown (C, University of Wisconsin, Green Bay), Thanasis Antetokounmpo (SF, Greece), and Alessandro Gentile (SF, Italy)
Twitter
: @LP21_
Tweet:
Analysis: The Bucks traded the rights to Patterson for a future second round draft pick via the Brooklyn Nets.  I am not sure what year that pick vests but my guess is that the pick will be earlier than 48th overall but that is just conjecture.  The big miss is that the Bucks could have taken The Greek Freak's older brother Thanasis.  I wholeheartedly support anything that keeps The Greek Freak in Milwaukee long-term.  Don't get me wrong, this is probably an Aaron and Jordan Rodgers situations with Thanasis playing the part of Jordan but why not keep the most physically gifted player on The 15 that was homesick all last season happy?

As I said last year, the Bucks are in desperate need of a spark for the franchise.  Besides going to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2001, the Bucks have not won a playoff series since 1989.  Last season was downright painful to be a Bucks fan on the eve of last season coming to a close, the Bucks were sold by long-term owner Herb Kohl to Marc Lasry and Wesley Edens.  Given how much the Bucks struggled on the court, they had the best odds to win the NBA Lottery.  Fortunately (you read that correctly) the Bucks "lost" the lottery so they settled for the second pick.  That marks the 6th time that the Bucks have fallen in the last 16 NBA Draft lotteries (remained in the same position eight times and improved only twice).  Once Kansas center Joel Enbiid had foot surgery to insert screws in his foot a week before the draft, the Bucks were focused solely on Wiggins and Parker.  If Wiggins turns out to be a stud and Parker is a bust, the Bucks can blame that on being unlucky in the lottery.  f the reverse turns out to be the case, the Bucks will be a relevant NBA franchise for the next decade.


Footnote:
* = I missed on Noah Vonleh (PF, Indiana) went 9th to the Hornets, Bruno Caboclo (SF, Brazil) went 20th to the Raptors, Mitch McGary (PF, Michigan) went 21st to the Thunder, Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG, Serbia) went 27th to the Suns, C.J. Wilcox (SG, Washington) went 28th to the Clippers, and Josh Huestis (SF/PF, Stanford) went 29th to the Thunder.

** = Jarnell Stokes (PF, Tennessee) rated 18th but went 35th to the Jazz, K.J. McDaniels (SF, Clemson) rated 26th but went 32nd to the 76ers, Glenn Robinson III (SF, Michigan) rated 17th but went 40 to the Timberwolves, Spencer Dinwiddie (PG, Colorado) rated 28th but went 38th to the Pistons, Jordan Clarkson (PG, Missouri) rated 29th but went 46th to Wizards, and Damien Inglis (SF, France) rated 30th but went 31st to Bucks.