The 53 - Five Worst Contracts for 2014 GBP

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson finalized the first incarnation of The 53 on Saturday.  I say first incarnation because much like last year, just a few days after finalizing The 53, Thompson shook up The 53.  Last year Thompson made a change at backup quarterback, this year injuries forced Thompson to make changes at center. 

Review of The 53

Initial Review of the Roster Initial Review of the Practice Squad Five Most Overpaid Five Most Underpaid Initial Rankings of the Roster

Thompson normally is very deliberate in how he Builds The 53 but injuries have forced Thompson to change his approach over the last few years. In what feels like a flurry of off-season signings, Thompson signed not one but two free agents that played for other NFC North teams last season.  Thompson favors the draft and develop method over splashing cash in free agency but with such meager returns from the draft the last few years (2011, 2012, and 2013), Thompson was basically forced to upgrade The 53 via free agency so let's not give him too much credit.

Thompson rolled over roughly $10 million in cap space from last season, which is very important given that he has just under $9 million in cap space right now.  Although it looks like the Packers have a fair amount of salary cap room, they will need to use it wisely because they have a number of quality starters* and backups** that are set to become free agents this off-season.

Two years ago I dealt with the five worst and five best contract together.  Since these posts get long, I decided to split them up last year into the five worst and the five best contracts on The 53.  I am going to follow that same approach again this year.  Today let's look at the five worst contracts on The 53:

5. Jordy Nelson (WR, $5.9 million, 5th highest cap charge on The 53): Going into this season the top three wide receivers on The 53: Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Jarrett Boykin were set to become free agents.  There is no question that Nelson is the most accomplished of the three but he is also the oldest.  Thompson signed Nelson to a four-year, $39 million extension with $11.5 million guarnateed on the eve of training camp, which is much richer than the four-year, $14 million contract with $5 million guaranteed that was set to expire at the end of the 2014 season. Nelson's cap number actually goes down next season to $4.6 but then jumps up for the following three years: $8.8 million in 2016, $11.5 million in 2017, and $12.5 million in 2018.  Sure the cap is set to go up in 2015 or 2016 but that does not justify back-loading this deal as much as Thompson did.  Given Cobb's injury issues, if he signs an extension with the Packers I would expect that it will be slightly less expensive than Nelson's recent extension but probably only a few million less.  Boykin is the tougher call given that Thompson drafted three wide receivers in the 2014 NFL Draft that are borderline locks for The 53 in 2015.  Unless Boykin takes a below market deal for a player of his caliber (e.g. only averages $2 million a year with very little guaranteed), I see him play playing elsewhere in 2015.  Nelson has just the 16th highest wide receiver salary in the NFL this season, which makes his contract look reasonable this season so I hope you realize that this is more of a commentary on the structure of the deal as well as the depth that the Packers have at wide receiver as opposed to a shot at Nelson.

4. Derek Sherrod (OT, $2.1 million salary, 16th highest cap charge on The 53): When the Packers lost backup offensive lineman Don Barclay for the season it meant that Sherrod became the backup at left and right tackle.  When right tackle Bryan Bulaga went down with a knee injury in the regular season opener on the road against the Seattle Seahawks, the Packers were forced to play Sherrod and he struggled mightily.  I know that Seattle is arguably the toughest stadium to play in and the Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl champs but Thompson certainly expected more out of Sherrod when he drafted him with the 32nd pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.  Unfortunately it looks like Sherrod is the second coming of Marshall Newhouse instead of Chad Clifton, which makes the long-term diagnosis on Bulaga's knee injury very important.  Thankfully Thompson can let Sherrod leave via free agency after this season while the rest of the guys on this list are signed past this season.

3. Morgan Burnett (S, $4.8 million salary, 9th highest cap charge on The 53):  Oh how the mighty have fallen.  I was a total Burnett supporter going into 2013.  In fact I liked Burnett so much that I actually had his four-year, $24.75 million contract extension with $8.25 million guaranteed that he signed before the 2014 season ranked as the 4th best contract on The 53 last season.  This might be a bit of an over reaction to one bad season since Burnett and the rest of the safeties on The 53 last year struggled but now the Packers have two much more cost-effective options at safety in Micah Hyde (moved from cornerback to safety this off-season) and rookie Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (my reasonable draft crush from the 2014 NFL Draft).  Given that Burnett is just 25 years old, I don't see Thompson cutting Burnett after this season unless Ha Ha and Hyde are absolute studs while Burnett completely struggles again this year but I wonder whether it will trigger a A.J. Hawk-esque pay cut down the road for Burnett if he wants to stay in Green Bay through the end of his contract that currently expires after the 2017 season.

2. Mason Crosby (K, $3.4 million salary, 15th highest cap charge on The 53):  Before the 2011 season Thompson signed Crosby to a five-years, $14.75 million contract with $3 million guaranteed.  Last season Crosby agreed to forgo guaranteed money with the option to earn the money back via performance bonuses because of how close he was to getting cut.  Crosby put together arguably his best season in Green Bay but let's not forget that there have been a number of studies that show there is no year-over-year correlation between kicker performance.  Thus a Top 5 kicker aka 2013 Crosby is just as likely to be a bottom five kicker aka 2012 Crosby.  Right now Crosby is the 4th highest paid kicker in the NFL and sadly has regression written all over him for this season.  If I were Thompson, next off-season I would draft a kicker late or sign an undrafted rookie free agent to create a kicking competition in training camp.  If Crosby is out-kicked by the other kicker, the Packers would only have $600,000 in dead money if they cut him but would be able to save over $2 million in salary at the kicker position given that Crosby is owed $3.5 million in 2015 because a rookie kicker would make around $500,000.  As you can tell, I hope 2014 is Crosby's last season kicking for the Packers.

1. Brad Jones (MLB, $3.9 million salary, 10th highest cap charge on The 53): I had Jones pegged for the worst contract on The 53 even before he was the single worst defender on the field against the Seattle Seahawks in the regular season opener.  Last year I thought Jones only had the 4th worst contract on The 53 but Jones is now clearly in a race to the bottom with each passing day the three-year, $11.75 million contract that Thompson gave Jones continues to look worse and worse.  Just to add insult to the salary cap, the Packers are paying middle linebacker Jamari Lattimore $1.4 million in 2014 to backup Jones.  This off-season Lattimore is an unrestricted free agent.  I don't see Lattimore breaking the bank this off-season but will mostly likely command enough that Thompson will have to choose whether Jones deserves a spot on The 53 or should make way for a Lattimore extension.  I clearly favor Lattimore or even rookie Carl Bradford in 2015 over Jones. If Thompson doubles down on stupid by keeping Jones around for 2015, it will most likely be at the expense of Lattimore.

A special thanks to Sportrac for their detailed NFL salary numbers, which made this post possible.  With the bad contracts out of the way, make sure to check tomorrow for my look at the five best contracts on The 53.


Footnotes:
* = Bryan Bulaga (OT), Randall Cobb (WR), John Kuhn (FB), B.J. Raji (DT), and Tramon Williams (CB).

** = Don Barclay (OT), Jarrett Boykin (WR), Jarett Bush (CB), Matt Flynn (QB), Letroy Guion (DT), DuJuan Harris (RB), Davon House (CB), Jamari Lattimore (MLB), Sean Richardson (S), Derek Sherrod (OT), Ryan Taylor (TE), and Scott Tolzien (QB).

Building The 53 - McMillian out, Bell in

We knew that Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson added veteran running back Kahlil Bell to The 53 almost 24 hours ago thanks to Twitter.  At 5'11 and 216 lbs, Bell is a versatile running back that amassed 148 carries for 633 rushing yards and 22 receptions for 150 receiving yards over four seasons in the NFL mostly for the Chicago Bears.  For those that don't remember, Bell gashed the Packers for 159 total yards as a member of the Bears on Christmas Day 2011 thanks to 23 carries for 121 yards and four catches for 38 yards.  Bell previously served as a kickoff returner for the New York Jets, which is a plus since rookie cornerback Micah Hyde's success returning punts has not translated to kickoff returns. Since news of Bell's addition to The 53 broke after NFL business hours, the question turned to what player was going to make way for Bell?

Starting center Even Dietrich-Smith injured his knee on Thanksgiving against the Lions so with only four games left in the season there was a chance the Packers would put EDS on injured reserve.  Apparently EDS might be healthy enough to practice this week so that meant that the Packers were going to have to cut a healthy player to add Bell to The 53.  The strongest candidates to get cut from The 53 were the following pick-six (in alphabetical order):
- Victor Aiyewa (LB): the most recent addition to The 53 made his roster spot tenuous.
- Chris Harper (WR): a healthy scratch the last five games.
- Jeron McMillian (S): can't get on the field lately despite serious needs at safety.
- Marshall Newhouse (OT): arguably the worst offensive player currently on The 53.
- Nate Palmer (LB): healthy scratch the last two weeks.
- Jake Stoneburner (TE): rookie undrafted free agent that has seen very little of the field on offense or special teams despite all the injuries the Packers suffered at tight end this season.

As it turns out, McMillian made way for Bell.  When Thompson used a 4th round draft pick to draft McMillian, some scouts thought McMillian would have a hard time adjusting to the NFL since he played college football at Maine against second-tier NCAA players. After watching McMillian as a rookie, I actually thought he could be Atari Bigby 2.0 given how physical he played as a rookie.

Thanks to a productive rookie campaign, McMillian entered training camp this season as the starter opposite Morgan Burnett at safety but struggled throughout training camp.  Despite McMillian's struggles, he actually started the first two games this season due mostly to lack of better options since Burnett was injured.  After playing 184 snaps on defense in the first five games this season, McMillian played just seven defensive snaps in the last seven games.  Thus the longer McMillian was on The 53 during his sophomore season, the less he saw the field.  Even worse, McMillian was only a part-time player on special teams so that was probably the biggest indicator that McMillian's roster spot was tenuous. Ultimately McMillian played 28 games for the Packers including the aforementioned two starts by default.  As it turns out I was wrong about McMillian's upside because he is more of a homeless man's Bigby than Bigby 2.0.

With the change to The 53 out of the way, let's turn to the most notable thing we learned from Packer head coach Mike McCarthy's press conference earlier today.  McCarthy revealed that quarterback Aaron Rodgers is still not cleared to play but did not rule him out for Sunday when the Packers host the underwhelming Atlanta Falcons.  Hopefully the Packers will have Rodgers under center against the Falcons because without his services they've gone 0-4-1 since Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone against the Bears.  Given that the Packers trail the Detroit Lions by 1.5 games for first place in the NFC North with four games to play, the Packers face a do or die stretch to finish the season.

The 53 - Packers pummeled on the road by Lions on Thanksgiving

Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford came into their Thanksgiving 2013 match up 0-6 for his career against the Green Bay Packers and the Lions lost 15 of their last 16 games against the Packers.  The Lions lost nine straight on Thanksgiving but were 11-8-1 all-time against the Packers on Thanksgiving heading into their game on Thanksgiving 2013.  The Lions lost to the Packers for the 23rd consecutive times in Wisconsin earlier this season so they were looking for payback on Thanksgiving.

The inactives for the Packers against the Lions were: Brandon Bostick (TE, concussion), Chris Harper (WR, healthy scratch), Jamari Lattimore (LB, quad), Nate Palmer (LB, healthy scratch), Aaron Rodgers (QB, broken collarbone), Jerel Worthy (DL, healthy scratch), and C.J. Wilson (DL, ankle).  I was shocked that the quintet of right tackle Don Barclay, defensive lineman Johnny Jolly, outside linebacker Nick Perry, and cornerback Sam Shields returned for the Packers.  I almost wonder if those guys could have played against the Vikings just four days ago when the Packers tied the Vikings at home but Packers head coach Mike McCarthy didn't play them because he thought he could beat the Vikings without their services.  Well the Packers had all of their services but it didn't seem to help much.

In the first half the Packers offense got just three first downs, which is the same amount of turnovers that the defense created.  Luckily the defense returned one of those for a touchdown because the Packers scored just three points on offense on a drive that started at their own 40-yard line thanks to Lions punter Sam Martin hitting the kickoff out of bounds.

Besides the turnovers, the Lions were stellar on offense en route to gaining 17 first downs thanks in part to converting 4 of 5 third downs into first downs while the Packers converted merely 1 of 6 third downs into first downs.  The Lions held the ball for 20:34 minutes while the Packers only held the ball for 9:26 in the first half. The Lions gained 340 yards while the Packers gained just 43 yards.  The Lions should have been up huge at halftime but thanks to three turnovers and a missed 31-yard field goal at the end of the half by Lions kicker David Akers, the Lions only lead 17-10.

The Packers received the ball to start the second half but unfortunately it was just more of the same sans turnovers. Ultimately the Packers lost 40-10 to the Lions.  You can read more in-depth recaps of the second half elsewhere, I am more interested in where we go from here.

The Lions scored 37 unanswered points and out-gained the Packers 561 yards to 124 yards.  The offensive yardage numbers for the Packers would have been even more lopsided without the garbage 56 yard reception by wide receiver James Jones in the waning minutes of the game with the game already out of hand.  Let that sink in for a minute, the Packers gained almost half of their total yards on offense on one play, in garbage time.

There are tons of people calling for Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers to be fired.  If the Packers make that move, I assume they would name assistant head coach/inside linebackers coach Winston Moss the interim defensive coordinator.  Given that the Packers are most likely out of playoff contention, I am not sure what they accomplish other than putting a head on a spike.  Here are my updated rankings following the Packers/Lions game:

The 53

1. Aaron Rodgers (QB, LR 1) 2. Clay Matthews (OLB, LR 2)  3. Jordy Nelson (WR, LR 3) 4. T.J. Lang (G, LR 5) 5. Morgan Burnett (S, LR 9) 6. Josh Sitton (G, LR 4) 7. Eddie Lacy (RB, LR 6) 8. B.J. Raji (DL, LR 8) 9. James Jones (WR, LR 7) 10. David Bakhtiari (T, LR 11) 11. Evan Dietrich-Smith (C, LR 10) 12. Mike Daniels (DL, LR 13) 13. Sam Shields (CB, LR 12) 14. Tramon Williams (CB, LR 14) 15. Brad Jones (MLB, LR 15) 16. Don Barclay (T, LR 20) 17. Nick Perry (OLB, LR 21) 18. A.J. Hawk (MLB, LR 16) 19. Davon House (CB, LR 17) 20. Datone Jones (DL, LR 18) 21. Micah Hyde (CB, LR 19) 22. Jarrett Boykin (WR, LR 22) 23. Tim Masthay (P, LR 24) 24. Mike Neal (DL/OLB, LR 26) 25. Johnny Jolly (DL, LR 27) 26. Ryan Pickett (DL, LR 28) 27. Mason Crosby (K, LR 33) 28. Jerel Worthy (DE, LR 25) 29. Jamari Lattimore (LB, LR 23) 30. Matt Flynn (QB, LR 29) 31. Jarrett Bush (CB, LR 32) 32. Scott Tolzien (QB, LR 31) 33. M.D. Jennings (S, LR 38) 34. James Starks (RB, LR 34) 35. Brett Goode (LS, LR 35) 36. John Kuhn (FB, LR 36) 37. Derek Sherrod (T, LR 37) 38. Andrew Quarless (TE, LR 30) 39. Chris Banjo (S, LR 44) 40. Brandon Bostick (TE, LR 40) 41. C.J. Wilson (DL, LR 41) 42. Ryan Taylor (TE, LR 42) 43. Sean Richardson (S, LR 43) 44. Andy Mulamba (LB, LR 46) 45. Jerron McMillian (S, LR 47)  46. Myles White (WR, LR 48) 47. Lane Taylor (G, LR 49) 48. Jake Stoneburner (TE, LR 50) 49. Josh Boyd (DL, LR 51) 50. Marshall Newhouse (T, LR 45) 51. Victor Aiyewa (LB, LR N/A) 52. Nate Palmer (LB, LR 52) 53. Chris Harper (WR, LR 53)

Physically Unable to Perform

1. JC Tretter (T)

IR, Designated for Return

1. Randall Cobb (WR)

Injured Reserve

1. Jermichael Finley (TE) 2. Bryan Bulaga (T) 3. Casey Hayward (CB, LR 16) 4. DuJuan Harris (RB) 5. Jonathan Franklin (RB) 6. Robert Francois (MLB) 7. Greg Van Roten (C/G) 8. Sam Barrington (LB) 9. Seneca Wallace (QB) 10. James Nixon (CB, LR 53) 11. Kevin Dorsey (WR) 12. Sederrik Cunningham (WR)

Cut

1. Jeremy Ross (WR, Lions) 2. Michael Hill (RB, Buccaneers)

1. Aaron Rodgers (QB, LR 1): With Rodgers healthy, the Packers were 5-2 after beating the Minnesota Vikings in their last visit to The Humpty and looked like a strong candidate for a first round playoff bye.  Since Rodgers went down in the first offensive series of Monday Night Football against the Bears, the Packers have gone 0-4-1.  Has a player ever been named MVP without playing?

5) Morgan Burnett (S, LR 9): After having zero big plays so far in 2013, Burnett lucked into two fumble recoveries.  The first fumble was created by outside linebacker Clay Matthews stripping Lions running back Reggie Bush.  The second fumble was created by outside linebacker Nick Perry's strip sack of Stafford that Burnett returned to a touchdown.  Burnett showed that fumble recoveries are sometimes the definition of empty calories given that Burnett was quiet otherwise against the Lions.  I was totally against cutting Charles Woodson, clearly Woodson's play for the Oakland Raiders shows that he is not worth paying him $10 million this season, but worth have on The 53 for the Packers since he would be the starter at safety opposite Burnett.  I could be wrong but if the Packers could get even decent play next to Burnett, I could see the safety position turn from a liability to a position of strength given Burnett's potential upside.

13) Sam Shields (CB, LR 12): The Packers had two interceptions and two fumbles against the Lions.  Shields accounted for one of those interceptions on the only quality defense the secondary played on Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson all game.  Shields ran stride for stride with Johnson, maintained proper defensive position, and high-pointed the ball perfectly to intercepts Stafford's pass to prevent a touchdown.  Unfortunately those plays have been few and far between for Shields this season.  I reserve the option to chance my thoughts but as of right now I would force cornerback Tramon Williams to take a significant pay cut or send him packing, pay Shields, and move cornerback Micah Hyde to safety.  Assuming Williams takes the pay cut, the depth chart at cornerback next season would be Williams, Shields, Casey Hayward, Davon House, and Jarrett Bush.  That would leave the depth chart at safety as Burnett, Hyde, Jennings, Richardson, Banjo, and McMillan.

27) Mason Crosby (K, LR 33): My two main beefs with Crosby is consistency and inability to convert kicks from length once it gets cold. Crosby has been 25 of 29 this season including makes from 57 yards against the the Giants and 54 yards against the Lions.  Unfortunately I think we are in for a stinker or two from Crosby over the next four games.  Given that Crosby is due $3.4 million in 2014 and the Packers have a ton of guys to take care of, the Packers need to consider whether it is worth biting the bullet to carry $1.2 million in dead money split over their 2014 and 2015 salary cap to go in a new direction at kicker next season because we know there is very little correlation in kicking percentage season-to-season.

30) Matt Flynn (QB, LR 29): Last week I praised Flynn for potentially saving the Packers season.  For how well Flynn was last week, he was equally horrible this week against the Lions.  In three career games against the Lions, Flynn has either been boom or bust.  On December 12, 2010 he went 15 for 26 throwing for 177 yards, and 1 interception for a 62.5 passer rating in a 7-3 loss in Detroit.  On January 1, 2012 he went 31 for 44 throwing for 480 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 1 interception for a 136.4 passer rating in a 45-41 win in Green Bay.  On November 28, 2013 he went 10 for 20 throwing for 139 yards, and 1 interception for a 51.9 passer rating in a 40-10 loss in Detroit.  In what is hopefully Flynn's last snap for the Packers at quarterback he fumbled a clean snap to ensure the offense only scored 3 points.

42) Ryan Taylor (TE, LR 42): I am shocked that Taylor returned to the game after suffering what looked like a gruesome concussion when he was tackled by two players.  It looked like the hit was legal.  Given how much an emphasis the NFL has put on head injuries twenty years too late, apparently it did not result in a concussion for Taylor.

50) Marshall Newhouse (T, LR 45): When starting center Evan Dietrich-Smith went down with a knee injury, the Packers had an interesting decision to make.  If I were in charge I would have slide starting right guard T.J. Lang to center, starting right tackle Don Barclay to right guard, and put Derek Sherrod at right tackle.  Instead McCarthy moved Lang to center and inserted Newhouse at right guard while leaving Don Barclay at right tackle.  Newhouse gave up a safety and provided about as much protection as a defective condom before getting benched for undrafted guard Lane Taylor. For the final series the Packers gave Sherrod a chance at right tackle.

51) Victor Aiyewa (LB, LR N/A): Added to The 53 in place of rookie running back Johnathan Franklin.  After a promising preseason, Franklin played sparingly in the regular season amassing 107 yards on 19 carries and 1 touchdown mostly against the Cincinnati Bengals.  It was Franklin's crucial fumble against the Bengals that will be remember as opposed to his 13 carries for 103 yards and 1 touchdown effort.  Franklin played against the Bengals because fellow rookie running back Eddie Lacy suffered a concussion against the Washington Redskins that precluded him from playing against the Bengals.  Franklin suffered a concussion last week returning the opening kickoff return against the Vikings.  It was curious that Franklin was returning kickoffs because rookie cornerback Micah Hyde claimed that spot due to Franklin's ineffectiveness.  Franklin became the 12th player that the Packers placed on injured reserve.  As you can tell, I wanted to recap Franklin's rookie contributions for the Packers.  Given that Aiyewa is the first addition to The 53 by the Packers of a guy that I know very little about, here is a quick rundown on Aiyewa: he went to the University of Washington, his height (6'1"), and weight (237 pounds).

Stafford broke his winless streak against the Packers and now the Lions are now 12-8-1 all-time on Thanksgiving against the Packers.  The Packers need to win out and get some help, Lions need to lose 2 of their next 4 and Bears need to lose 1 of their next 5, to have any chance of winning the NFC North.  With ten days off before the Packers host the Atlanta Falcons at Lambeau Field the focus will be on whether Rodgers plays. Something tells me I could be writing a fairly length obituary on the Dom Capers-era.  If the Packers make any changes to the coaching staff or The 53 between, make sure to check back for full coverage.

The 53 - Packers lose to 49ers in 2013 opener

Last year the Green Bay Packers opened the season with a home loss to the San Francisco 49ers and closed the season with a playoff road loss to the 49ers as well.  Unfortunately 2013 started just the way 2012 ended for the Packers with a road loss to the 49ers.  Here are my thoughts along with updated rankings to The 53 following the Packers/49ers season opener:

The 53

1. Aaron Rodgers (QB, 1) 2. Clay Matthews (OLB, 2) 3. Randall Cobb (WR, 6) 4. Morgan Burnett (S, 7) 5. B.J. Raji (DL, 4) 6. Jordy Nelson (WR, 11) 7. T.J. Lang (G, 8) 8. Jermichael Finley (TE, 5) 9. Josh Sitton (G, 3) 10. James Jones (WR, 9) 11. Sam Shields (CB, 10) 12. Tramon Williams (CB, 12) 13. Evan Dietrich-Smith (C, 13) 14. David Bakhtiari (T, 17) 15. Nick Perry (OLB, 15) 16. Casey Hayward (CB, 14) 17. Datone Jones (DL, 18) 18. Tim Masthay (P, 19) 19. Eddie Lacy (RB, 16) 20. Ryan Pickett (DL, 20) 21. Don Barclay (T, 21) 22. Johnny Jolly (DL, 32) 23. A.J. Hawk (MLB, 22) 24. C.J. Wilson (DL, 23) 25. Brad Jones (MLB, 24) 26. Mike Daniels (DL, 26) 27. M.D. Jennings (S, 25) 28. Jerron McMillian (S, 27) 29. Micah Hyde (CB, 28) 30. James Starks (RB, 43) 31. Mason Crosby (K, 38) 32. Brett Goode (LS, 29) 33. Jarrett Bush (CB, 30) 34. Ryan Taylor (TE, 31) 35. Jarrett Boykin (WR, 33) 36. Robert Francois (MLB, 34) 37. Jeremy Ross (WR, 35) 38. John Kuhn (FB, 37) 39. Marshall Newhouse (T, 36) 40. Greg Van Roten (G, 39) 41. Davon House (CB, 40) 42. Chris Banjo (S, 51) 43. Jonathan Franklin (RB, 41) 44. Andrew Quarless (TE, 42) 45. Seneca Wallace (QB, 44) 46. Jamari Lattimore (LB, 46) 47. Mike Neal (OLB, 47) 48. Andy Mulumba (LB, 53) 49. Sam Barrington (LB, 49) 50. Nate Palmer (LB, 50) 51. Lane Taylor (G, 52) 52. Brandon Bostick (TE, 48) 53. Josh Boyd (DL, 45)

2. Clay Matthews (OLB): Bill Barnwell of Grantland.com, one of my favorite football writers, usually reviews bad coaching decisions in a weekly article called "Thank You For Not Coaching".  I presume that Packers head coach Mike McCarthy's decision to accept a penalty that gave the 49ers a 3rd and 6 instead of a 4th and 1 at the 5 yard line with the score tied 7-7 early in the second quarter will end up in that column.  I am not sure Barnwell's thoughts yet but here are my thoughts.  Following McCarthy accepting a penalty to set-up 3rd and 6 instead of 4th and 1, Matthews committed a personal foul tackling 49ers quarterback Colin Kapernick out of bounds.  A scuffle ensued. Somehow 49ers offensive lineman Joe Staley got an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty and Matthews was not ejected despite the fact that Matthews punched (a weak attempt but a punch nonetheless) Staley.  As we know now, the officials erred in replaying the down because of the off-setting penalties occurred after the play was over so it really should have been 4th and 2 from the Packers' 6 yard-line.  Obviously if McCarthy declines the penalty none of this ever happens because the 49ers face a 4th and 1 on the Packers' 5 yard line.  Odds are the 49ers go for it and most likely pickup the first down but if the Packers stopped the 49ers in that spot, they give themselves a huge boost in confidence instead of giving the 49ers two chances to go six yards.  Obviously McCarthy is a quality NFL head coach but some of his in-game decisions continue to perplex me.

4. Morgan Burnett (S):  Despite not playing against the 49ers, Burnett moved up three spots thanks to the horrible performances of the safety tandem of M.D. Jennings and Jerron McMillian.  Even with Charles Woodson on the roster last season, Burnett was clearly the best safety on the team.  Although Jennings and McMillian showed flashes last year, they could never put together consistent performances.  When the Packers cut Woodson, I was shocked that the Packers did not bring in another veteran at safety given the uneven play of Jennings and McMillian.  Hopefully once Burnett returns that will elevate the play of the other safeties, otherwise general manager Ted Thompson is going to rue not only cutting Woodson but failing to replace him with a veteran.

9. Josh Sitton (G): The 49ers have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL but that still does not excuse the three penalties (one for illegal hands to the face and two for holding) that Sitton committed.  This off-season the Packers flipped Sitton to left guard and T.J. Lang to right guard, which still makes no sense to me since both guys were so comfortable in the positions they finished at in 2012.  Despite flipping sides, on paper the Sitton/Lang combo still forms the best pair of guards in Green Bay since Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera, now we just need to see it in live action.

37. Jeremy Ross (WR): The Packers handed Ross the return job on a platter but after week one they might be looking for another return man.  In the preseason the Packers gave rookie running back Johnathan Franklin a shot at returning kickoffs but Franklin was underwhelming.  If the Packers think Franklin can hold onto the ball, they might as well give him another shot because Ross averaged just over 13 yards on kickoff returns, which is the definition of underwhelming so Franklin can't do much worse. 

42. Chris Banjo (S): Less than a month ago the Packers brought Banjo in as essentially a camp body with an outside chance to make the practice squad.  Not only did Banjo make The 53, but if Burnett is out against the Washington Redskins next week, the Packers should consider giving Banjo some snaps on defense in place of Jennings or McMillian given how much both struggled last week.

48. Andy Mulumba (LB): Every NFL team has a 53-man roster but a silly NFL rules prevents every player form being active for each game.  Two of the seven inactive players (Morgan Burnett and Casey Hayward), when healthy, will always be active.  The other inactive players (Sam Barrington, Brandon Bostick, Josh Boyd, Nate Palmer, and Lane Taylor) will have to show something during practice each week to be active.  I highlight Mulamba because he was active this week but will battle with Barrington and Palmer on a weekly basis to be active gameday.

Make sure to check back for my full breakdown if Thompson makes any significant roster moves this week, otherwise check back next Monday for my thoughts on the Packers/Redskins game.

The 53 - Five Best Contracts for 2013 GBP

In case you missed it, yesterday I looked at the five worst contracts on The 53, which I had a hard time doing because Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson is very fiscally responsible.  For that same reason, I had a hard time winnowing down the list to just five for the best contracts.  This list doesn't even factor in rookie contracts since they are exempt given that they are so advantageous for NFL teams.  There are almost a dozen contracts that I could characterize as honorable mention so let's get to the five best contracts on The 53:

5. Expiring One Year Deals: As I discussed yesterday, the Packers have a number of quality starters set to become free agents this off-season.  Four players not on their original rookie contract that look like absolute steals in 2013 are: Evan Dietrich-Smith (C, $1.3 million), Robert Francois (MLB, $750,000), James Jones (WR, $3.75 million), and Sam Shields (CB, $2 million).  Technically some of the contracts are off-shots of rookie contracts but I included them to illustrate the point that the Packers have a number of players that are playing for the largest payday of their lifetime this off-season so as long as they stay healthy they will have every financial motivation to play their best this season.  If I had to make a predictions today, I think it is much more likely that Dietrich-Smith and Jones will resign with the Packers than Francois or Shields.

4. Morgan Burnett (S, $3.2 million, 11th highest cap charge on The 53): The Packers rewarded Burnett with a lucrative five-year, $26 million contract ($8.25 million guaranteed) after being one of only two players to play every defensive snap for their team in 2012.  People always talk about how if running backs have too many touches, they are more likely to get hurt the following year that running backs that had less touches.  As far as I know, there has never been a similar study on defensive players.  Given the fact that Burnett player every defensive snap in 2012, the odds of him playing anywhere close to as many defensive snaps in 2013 are low, let's just hope he doesn't suffer a serious injury as a result of playing all those snaps in 2012.  Although Burnett only carries the 23rd highest salary cap charge for safeties in the NFL, his cap charges increases next season ($4.9 million) but luckily Burnett's salary cap charge doesn't spike too much the following year ($5.2 million).  Burnett will not even be 30 before the end of his current contract, which is a good thing, because his 2016 ($6.1 million) and 2017 ($7 million) cap numbers are extremely high for a safety.

3. Jordy Nelson (WR, $4 million, 9th highest cap charge on The 53): The Packers and Nelson agreed to a four-year, $14 million extension ($5 million signing bonus) after the 2010 season.  I thought Nelson was a lock for a long-term extension going into last season but he starts 2013 a little banged up so I wonder if the Packers will delay getting Nelson signed to an extension.  Nelson only has the 32nd highest cap hold for wide receivers in the NFL this seasons, which is way too low for a wide receiver of Nelson's caliber even factoring in his current injury issues.  Add in that Nelson's salary cap number actually goes down roughly $100,000 next season to $3.9 million and the Packers can take a wait-and-see approach with Nelson for the first part of 2013, especially since two of their other receivers Jones and Randall Cobb are in line for lucrative extensions in the near future.

2. Clay Matthews (OLB, $6.7 million, 4th highest cap charge on The 53): The Packers and Matthews agreed to a five-year, $66 million contract extension ($20.5 million signing bonus) to make him the highest paid linebacker (by average annual salary) even though they tacked the new contract onto the end of his rookie contract that was set to expire at the end of 2013.  That means the Packers owe Matthews just under $70 million for the next six seasons.  Call this season the honeymoon season because Matthews carries a cap charge of at least $11 million through the life of the contract with the biggest year being $15.2 million in 2017.  In 2013 Matthews holds merely the 13th highest salary cap charge at outside linebacker.  Since the Packers drafted Matthews in 2009 he has consistently been one of the league leaders in sacks.  If Matthews keeps this up, I see the Packers adding guaranteed money and years onto the contract he signed in off-season sooner rather than later.

1. Aaron Rodgers (QB, $12 million, 1st highest cap charge on The 53): The Packers had Rodgers under contract through 2014 as part of the six-year, $65 million ($20 million guaranteed) deal they agreed to in 2008.  The Packers added five years and $110 million dollars ($40 million guaranteed) on the end of the 2008 deal so they owe Rodgers a little less than $131 million for the next seven years, which means the Packers have Rodgers under contract through 2019.  If the Packers had to cut Rodgers before 2016 they would have a ton of salary cap ramifications: $54 million in dead money if they cut him this season, $47 million in dead money if they cut him in 2014, $30 million in dead money if they cut him in 2015, $14 million in dead money if cut in 2016, and $7 million in dead money if they cut him in 2017.  The Packers do not have any guaranteed money left on the contract after 2017 because they extended Rodgers while he still had two years left on his current contract.  If healthy, there is no way in the world anyone besides Aaron Rodgers is starting at quarterback through at least 2016 so I am not worried about the Packers having to deal with any dead money on their salary cap because of the Rodgers contract. Despite being arguably the best quarterback in the NFL, Rodgers has only the 11th highest salary cap number for quarterbacks this season.  The Packers should enjoy having Rodgers on the cheap this year though because his salary cap number jumps to $17.9 million next seasons, which would be second highest salary cap number for quarterbacks this season behind only Eli Manning ($20.9 million).  Rodgers is going to carry a large annual salary cap charge from 2014 on, but the fact that the Packers were able to front load the guaranteed money allows them more flexibility than the "lifetime" 10-year, $101.5 million contract that Brett Favre signed with the Packers that was renegotiated almost every year to help create cap room.  If Rodgers plays out this contract that means the Packers will have only had Favre or Rodgers as their true starting quarterbacks for 27 years from 1992 through 2019.

A special thanks to sportrac for their detailed NFL salary numbers, which made this post possible.

As the contracts discussed above show, the Packers have been in good financial shape under Thompson save for a few slight overpays, which is why they won Super Bowl XLV and have been a perennial playoff team for the last half dozen years besides 2008.

Check back tomorrow when I give my initial rankings of The 53.

2012 Green Bay Packers Final Rankings

I knew this was going to be a lengthy post so yesterday I dealt with the roster turnover from my mid-season player rankings to the final 53-man roster.  It is a little odd doing the final rankings because some guys are set to become unrestricted free agents (i.e. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver) while other guys that are under contract for next season could be cut (i.e. Charles Woodson and Jeff Saturday).  I like to factor in contract, age, and position in determining each player's value but that has some flaws since the season is over so I treat the final rankings as a hybrid of a look at how they performed in 2012 combined with their trade value.  Here are my final rankings of the 53-man roster for the 2012 Green Bay Packers (mid-season and initial rankings in parenthesis):

#53 (NR, NR) Ryan Grant (RB) - Ahman Green had a second stint with the Packers after leaving that was equally forgettable as Grant's second stint.  According to a number of players, Grant is a "consummate professional" but the NFL values production much more than being a good guy so we've most likely seen Grant play for the Packers for the last time.

#52 (28, 21) Jeff Saturday (C) - The ultimate tip of the cap to Aaron Rodgers and Packer fans is that Saturday was voted onto the NFC Pro Bowl team despite not even being the starting center at the end of the season.  The Packers clearly overvalued Saturday at the expense of simply re-signing Scott Wells last off-season and the two-year, $7.75 million deal they gave Saturday will go down as the worst free agent contract of the Thompson Era.  Luckily the Packers can cut Saturday this off-season with very little salary cap ramifications. The four-year, $24 million deal Wells signed with St. Louis was obviously too rich for the Packers but I have to believe they could have retained Wells if they showed interest but much like Cullen Jenkins the previous year, the Packers didn't seem to make an effort to retain Wells.  Let this be a harbinger of things to come for DD, please do not pull a Saturday to extend your career one most uneventful season.

#51 (30, 23) Donald Driver (WR) - Speaking of DD, oh how the mighty have fallen.  DD is currently on the Mount Rushmore of Good Guy Packers in my lifetime along with LeRoy Butler, Aaron Rodgers, Reggie White (minus his speech to the Wisconsin Assembly), and Mark Chmura.  Just kidding on Chmrua.  This is Driver's last year in Green Bay as a player but he looks like the perfect candidate to takeover Rob Davis's role as Director of Player Development if the organization decides to increase Davis's responsibilities following the departure of John Dorsey.

#50 (NR, NR) Jordan Miller (DT) - The former Chicago Bear practice squad player was never given a chance to prove his worth since he was added to the 53-man roster before the last regular season game.  I would be shocked if we ever discussed Miller in this space again.

#49 (38, 27) Mason Crosby (K) - Although Crosby had a mini bout of competence at the end of the season that does not dismiss how consistently horrible he was throughout most of the 2012 season. The Packers have to use a late draft pick or sign someone before training camp to push Crosby.

#48 (53, 53) Jarrett Boykin (WR) - Of all the players that stuck on the 53-man roster for the entire season, Boykin seemed the most expendable since the Packers have at least six better receiving options but that also means if he is healthy in September there is a good chance he will be on the 53-man roster.

#47 (49, 42) Terrell Manning (MLB) - The Packers already envision Manning, when healthy, as the regular special teams contributor.  The real question is whether Manning can push for playing time on defense, which would make certain veterans (i.e. Francois, Hawk, and Jones) expendable.

#46 (47, 41) Graham Harrell (QB) - The vaunted Mike McCarthy off-season quarterback school is going to have two or three pupils with Harrell, B.J. Coleman, and possibly a 2013 draft pick competing for one roster spot backing up Aaron Rodgers.  The early money is on Coleman but if Harrell can build on his impressive showing in Week 4 of the 2012 preseason against the Kansas City Chiefs then it might come down to who performs better in preseason next year.

#45 (46, 46) Rob Francois (MLB) - Despite being a quality special teams player, Francois owes most of his roster spot to all the linebackers that were lost for the season, which means his days in Green Bay are probably numbered.

#44 (NR, NR) Jeremy Ross (WR) - In 2012, Ross was prominently involved in the two most notorious special teams fumbles.  The bigger of the two fumbles came inside the 10-yard line on a punt return with the Packers leading the 49ers 14-7 in their Divisional Round playoff game, which turned the game on its head.  Ross is a professional but I blame head coach Mike McCarthy for putting Ross in such a pressure packed situation.  Despite the fumbles, Ross showed some spark as a return guy and might even be the 4th or 5th receiver next season if the Packers lose wide receivers Greg Jennings and Donald Driver this off-season.  Ross signed a three-year, $1.44 million contract with the Packers in 2012.  According to a number of teammates (most notably quarterback Aaron Rodgers), Ross wants to learn as much as possible, so he seems like a cheap option to keep on the roster despite being responsible for the biggest gaffe by any Packer in 2012.

#43 (48, NR) Greg Van Roten (OL) - The Packers used Van Roten as a 6th offensive lineman in the U-64 formation like they did in the past with Kevin Barry in the U-71 formation.  The sample size was too small to determine whether it was very effective but just the fact that the Packers tried to get Van Roten on the field towards the end of the season makes me think the Packers have a long-term interest in Van Roten.

#42 (45, 39) D.J. Williams (TE) - After being named the best tight end in college football in 2011, Williams has been less than impressive in the NFL thanks to rather shaky hands.  The Packers have so many weapons on offense that Williams needs to show real value on special teams as well as the ability to lineup as a fullback if he wants to make the opening day roster next year.

#41 (44, 44) James Starks (RB) - The fact that Starks was the 3rd leading rusher on the team behind Alex Green and Aaron Rodgers with 255 rushing yards shows you how pathetic the Packers were at running the ball in 2012.  Since the middle of his college career Starks has battled a multitude of injuries so the Packers should operate as if Starks will never be healthy again.

#40 (42, NR) Frank Zombo (OLB) - The former collegiate defensive end turned outside linebacker showed flashes early in his career but was injured or unproductive for all of 2012.  With the emergence of some younger options, Zombo can only be counted on as positional insurance as opposed to a potential starter at outside linebacker in the base 3-4 defense.  Zombo is a restricted free agent so the Packers might as well give him a low-end tender to see if they can rent him for another season.

#39 (40, 35) Jamari Lattimore (MLB) - With all the injuries the Packers suffered at linebacker in 2012, Lattimore still never really got a chance to play in the base 3-4 defense.  Thus Lattimore better focus on being the best special teams player not named Jarrett Bush if he wants to be on the roster long-term.

#38 (41, 43) Ryan Taylor (TE) - Speaking of special teams mavens, Taylor needs to fit that bill as well because despite catching a pass for no gain against the Vikings in the playoffs, Taylor is on the roster for his special teams play.

#37 (40, 29) Alex Green (RB) - The leading rusher for the 2012 Green Bay Packers only amassed 464 yards on 135 carries for an unimpressive 3.4 yard per carry average.  Let's not forget that Green tore his ACL in 2011 and despite Adrian Peterson putting up one of the more impressive rushing season in NFL history coming off the same injury, Peterson is a freak of nature so it is unfair to compare Green to Peterson.  Injuries aside, Green does not look like an every down back based on his small body of work so far.  The Packers should get Green to focus on being a 3rd down back that can pickup the blitz but also catch some balls out of the backfield in 2013.  If Green masters that role then the Packers can look at giving him more touches on the 1st and 2nd down.

#36 (39, 33) John Kuhn (FB) - As just discussed, Green looks like a perfect candidate to takeover Kuhn's 3rd down back role.  I appreciate that Kuhntang became the 5th player in NFL playoff history to have two games with a rushing and receiving touchdown but his days could be numbered in Green Bay, especially because of his high salary cap number of $2.6 million in 2013.

#35 (18, NR) Erik Walden (OLB) - The entire Green Bay defense looked horrible in their Divisional Round playoff game against Colin Kapernick and the San Francisco 49ers but Walden was the worst of the bunch.  Almost every time Kapernick kept the ball on the read option, Walden guessed wrong and lost containment of the quarterback.  Walden showed glimpses of being a violent pass rusher in the second half of 2012 but killed his free agent value against the 49ers.  Given Walden's previous off the field problems, I wouldn't offer him anymore than the veteran minimum for 2013.

#34 (36, 45) Brett Goode (LS) - Goode performed his job well throughout 2012 but the Crosby stink spilled onto Goode a little.  Obviously Goode cannot make kicks for Crosby but as the long snapper, Goode spends lots of time with Crosby so he gets a minuscule amount of the blame since he was unable to orchestrate any breakthroughs for Crosby.

#33 (31, 48) Brad Jones (MLB) - After playing well as the starting middle linebacker alongside A.J. Hawk thanks to countless injuries the Packers suffered at the middle linebacker position, Jones looked horrible for the last month of the season.  In the middle of December it looked like Jones was going to get a nice free agent offer but now it looks like Jones is just the next Brady Poppinga or Brandon Chillar.

#32 (33, 36) Dezman Moses (OLB) - Probably more upside than Vic So'oto or Zombo but Moses still lacks the ability to be an every down outside linebacker opposite Matthews.  Oddly the best thing for Moses is if Nick Perry can return healthy in 2013 after missing most of his rookie season due to a hand injury.  A healthy Perry means the Packers will only need Moses in passing situations, which will keep Moses fresh and effective.

#31 (35, 38) Mike Daniels (DL) - Despite having a short but wide frame, a number of scouts like the "juice" Daniels brings to the table as a pass rusher.  Obviously Daniels is not going to get any taller but if he can add a little muscle in place of fat he can morph into something more than just a situational pass rusher.

#30 (34, 37) Tom Crabtree (TE) - A blocker more than a pass catcher, Crabtree could be more of a focal point of the offense in 2013 depending on what the Packers do with Jermichael Finley.  Even if the Packers keep Finley, the NFL is evolving into a tight end heavy league.  I am not saying Finley and Crabtree will be the next Mark Chmura and Keith Jackson but it is not out of the realm of possibilities.  It will be interesting to see how the Packers tender Crabtree as a restricted free agent.  I would trade Crabtree for a 3rd round pick, especially given the glut of quality tight ends on the roster, but would be shocked if anyone offered such a high draft choice for Crabtree

#29 (29, 16) Jerel Worthy (DL) - Injuries really hurt my ability to accurately evaluate Worthy.  Unfortunately Worthy will spend the off-season rehabbing a knee injury so it might not be till the middle of next season or even 2014 before the Packers get the Worthy on the field.

#28 (32, NR) Mike Neal - For a few games towards the end of the regular season the pass rush combo of Matthews and Neal was impressive but Neal could not sustain that into the playoffs.  Neal is the strongest guy on the team but this off-season the Packers need to work with Neal on converting that raw strength into production on the field otherwise Neal will join a long list of workout champions that never actually produce on the field.

#27 (26, 32) Jerron McMillian (S) - The transition from college to the NFL is big for all rookies but especially for rookies from small schools like Maine.  Guys that play in Big "12", Big "Ten", Pac 12, or SEC face potential NFL talent regularly.  Guys like McMillian rarely see that type of talent.  Hopefully with an uneven rookie campaign under his belt, McMillian can improve enough to push to be the regular starting safety opposite Morgan Burnett.

#26 (NR, NR) DuJuan Harris (RB) - I am not sure what running back story bothered me more at the end of the season, the Ryan Grant "resurgence" story or the Harris being 2010 James Starks story. I like that Harris is a violent runner but let's not get too carried away.  Harris was cut but the Jacksonville Jaguars and attempting to sell cars just a few months ago.  I hope I am wrong but it is much more likely that Harris is the next Samkon Gado than even a poor man's Maurice Jones-Drew.

#25 (27, 34) Evan Dietrich-Smith (C) - I would have ranked EDS five spots higher but he is a restricted free agent.  The Packers should take 75% of the money they were going to spend on Saturday next year and use that as a signing bonus for the three-year contract they offer EDS to see if EDS is really the center of the future in Green Bay.

#24 (20, 26) Davon House (CB) - Much like Starks, House seems to be injured more than healthy.  There is no question that House used to fit the scheme the defensive scheme the Packers play but his should injury might preclude him from fulfilling the lofty expectations the Packers have for him.

#23 (24, 40) M.D. Jennings (S) - The Packers only owe Jennings $555,000 next season before he is a restricted free agent in 2014.  I view Jennings at worst as a core special teams player and at best the starting safety opposite Morgan Burnett.  As a result, I would offer Jennings a four-year contract extension with some up front money along with roster bonuses in 2015 and 2016 that limit the salary cap ramifications if Jennings flames out.

#22 (15, 14) Marshall Newhouse (T) - Although Newhouse was the starting left tackle all of 2012, he gave up a number of sacks and pressures.  There is no question that Newhouse has been much more impressive than you would expect from a 5th round draft pick but when the Packers committed to Newhouse as a starter in the beginning of 2012, they probably expected him to play better.  Going into 2013 I would have an open competition for the starting left tackle job between Bryan Bulaga, Andrew Datko, Newhouse, and Derek Sherrod.

#21 (21, 22) Jarrett Bush (CB) - There is never a dull moment when Bush is on the field, whether it be covering punts or opening lanes for returners, Bush continues to hold the belt as the special teams ace of the Packers.

#20 (23, 25) Tim Masthay (P) - Much like Bush, Masthay does so well on special teams that I almost undervalue how important he is to the Packers.  Luckily Masthay is a man of faith because being the holder for Mason Crosby can't be easy.

#19 (14, 28) A.J. Hawk (MLB) - The "Business HJ" of the defense turned himself into the "Naughty HJ" of the defense this season.  Jones still wore the communication helmet, which meant he was on the field more than Hawk, but that is because the Packers finally stopped asking Hawk to do things that he is clearly not qualified to do (i.e. cover a running back or tight end) and focused on his strengths (i.e. being a sure tackler and occupying offensive lineman so other people can make plays).  The Packers probably have to wait till the end of next season before cutting Hawk to avoid more than a $5 million cap hit.  Plus, Hawk is expensive insurance for Desmond Bishop and D.J. Smith since there is no guarantee that both will be 100% at the start of 2013.

#18 (43, 50) Don Barclay (T) - Hands down the pleasant surprise of 2012.  Barclay played so well that the Packers have the option of moving the short-armed former starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga to left tackle depending on how they view Marshall Newhouse long term.  There are varying reports on the severity of Bulaga's hip injury, which would impact whether he is even available for training camp.  The good news is that Barclay, proved he is healthy, can be the starter at right tackle no matter how things shake out with the rest of their offensive tackles.

#17 (25, 30) C.J. Wilson (DL) - Usually when players miss an extended period of time they risk losing their job since the Packers totally subscribe to the "next guy up" mentality.  In Wilson's case, the Packers really don't have any traditional 3-4 defensive ends on the roster besides Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji so when Wilson was out of the lineup because of injury, the Packers were just bidding their time till they could plug him back in.  The Packers are only on the hook for $600,000 next season for Wilson but he is a unrestricted free agent in 2014 so they might want to extend Wilson before he prices himself out of Green Bay. 

#16 (11, 7) Charles Woodson (CB) - This kills me to put Woodson so low on the list but injuries are finally catching up to Woodson.  Two broken collar bones for Woodson in the last three years means its time the Packers force Woodson to wear larger shoulder pads, if they keep him in 2013 but with the largest cap number on the roster for next season he might have played his last snap for the Packers.

#15 (16, 9) Greg Jennings (WR) - Speaking of playing their last snap for the Packers, although Jennings is scheduled to be a free agent, the Packers should place the franchise tag on him and put him on the trade block.  I know that is not usually the way the Packers do business but after watching Aaron Kampman, Cullen Jenkins, and Scott Wells leave via free agency the last three off-seasons, it time to get something more than a compensatory pick for a stud free agent.  I am not sure that Jennings is going to break the bank on the free agent market anyhow because the salary cap is not set to go up much until 2015 but he priced himself out of Green Bay so franchising and trading Jennings is the Packer's only viable option

#14 (6, 5) Tramon Williams (CB) - This might be an emotional reaction to how horrible Williams played down the stretch for the Packers but with the emergence of other young cornerbacks, Williams is a candidate to get released this off-season.  Williams does not play physical unless it is after the play (remember the back breaking personal foul against the Vikings in the regular season finale) so with his cap number set to jump $1.6 million for next season (from $4.7 million to 6.3 million), the Packers need to decide what to do with Williams.  I think the Packers should get Williams because he had a relatively modest signing bonus ($6 million) for such a hefty contract (five-years, $38.2 million) that he signed in 2010, which would take up some much needed cap space.

#13 (19, 4) Jermichael Finley (TE) - It was nice to see Finley do some positive Finley things (make tough catches) towards the end of the season instead of negative Finely things (complain about Rodgers).  Thanks to playing well down the stretch, Finley set a team record for the most receptions by a tight end in a season with 61.  Not even a month ago I thought the Packers would cut Finley instead of paying him $8.75 million next season but this would be the perfect time to approach Finley about an extension since his market value dropped overall in 2012 despite a strong finish to the season.

#12 (8, 17) Ryan Pickett (DL) - After signing a four-year, $25 million contract that only contained a $2 million signing bonus in 2010 most observes thought Pickett would play a few more years before getting cut.  Instead, Pickett continued to improve and might actually be worth signing to a contract extension once everything is sorted out with the extensions for the "Big Three" (Rodgers, Matthews, and Raji).  Whether Pickett receives an extension has much more to do with the progression of Daniels, Neal, and Worthy than Pickett because the Packers know they have a quality defensive lineman in Pickett, the question is whether they can save some money by going young at the position along the defensive line.

#11 (10, 6) Jordy Nelson (WR) - Injuries really hampered Nelson in 2012, which really hurt his leverage with the Packers because Nelson signed what looks like a totally club friendly a four-year, $14 million contract in 2011.  The Packers owe Nelson roughly $4 million a year through 2014 so if he stayed healthy in 2012 then negotiations might have started on another extension but now I see the Packers waiting to see what Nelson does in 2013 before approaching his agent about an extension.

#10 (22, 24) Sam Shields (CB) - I know this might sound crazy but when healthy, Shields might be the best defensive back on the team.  Think back to how well Shields played during the Packers' Super Bowl run in 2010.  In understand that Shields comes from the Tramon Williams school of tackling but Shields is possibly the fastest guy on the team and actually plays fast, which allows him to chase down plays that others cannot.  With Shields set to be a restricted free agent this off-season, the Packers better give him the highest tender and decide whether they want to commit to Shields or Williams long-term.  Personally I would commit to Shields ahead of Williams.

#9 (12, 18) Casey Hayward (CB) -  It is easy to point to Hayward's team high six interceptions as a rookie in 2012 to show his worth to the Packers but it is the deeper stats that showed those interceptions were less a product of luck and more a product of quality player whenever Hayward was on the field.  Shields, the player just discussed before Hayward, had a great rookie season but lackluster second season in the NFL.  It will be interesting to see if 2012 was a flash in the pan or the start of an amazing career for Hayward.  I provide it is the start of an amazing career for Hayward but only time will tell.

#8 (13, 12) Morgan Burnett (S) - With how horribly the rest of the secondary tackled in 2012, it makes sense that Burnett lead the secondary in tackles.  The Packers should appreciate what Burnett did in 2012 but plan accordingly because usually safeties that throw their body around like Burnett did last season miss some time the following season.  Especially when you factor in that Burnett and James Laurinaitis (MLB) of the St. Louis Rams were the only players to play every defensive snap for their team in 2012, the odds of Burnett doing that again in 2013 are slim.  Either way, it was nice to see at least someone in the secondary healthy for the whole season and actually tackle players.

#7 (3, 13) Randall Cobb (WR) - There is no doubt that Cobb had a season for the ages in 2012 leading the team in receiving yards en route to besting Ahman Green's all-time single-season team record for net yards.  The all-time single-season record comes with a slight asterisk because Cobb got to include special teams yardage while Green only touched the ball on offense.  In my review of the Packers/Titans game I made the case for keeping Cobb as the return guy instead of using Ross as their returner in the playoffs.  Ross's fumble against the 49ers confirmed what I advocated, but it was too late.  Finally, some people might argue that Cobb should be in the Top 5, but let's not forget that Cobb had 10 drops this season.  Those same drops almost lead to James Jones playing elsewhere.  If Cobb can fix the drops, look for him to push for a bronze medal in the rankings.

#6 (7, 11) T.J. Lang (G) - Like any other position in the NFL, the offensive line positions have gone through a number of different evolutions.  With the advent of the hurry-up offense, athletic centers that could make adjustments on the fly became the flavor of the day.  Following that trend, the rise of the left tackle became the next trend to counteract the rise of impact defensive ends and outside linebackers.  The most recent trend is a shift to larger, athletic guards to combat the rise in the amount of mammoth, athletic defensive tackles.  Since Lang is a large athletic guard, he got paid in the off-season signing a five-year, $22.5 million contract with a $5.5 million signing bonus. 

#5 (5, 19) James Jones (WR) - In less than two years Jones went from a big play threat with shaky hands to leading the team in touchdowns (14) while making a number of highlight reel plays.  Is this a one year aberration for Jones or the new normal?  With the presumed departure of Driver and Jennings this off-season, if 2012 is the new normal for Jones then the Packers need to consider extending him this off-season since he is scheduled to make $3.75 million next season in the final year of the three-year, $9.4 million contract with a $1.5 million signing bonus.  If not, Jones will undoubtedly test the free agent market to try to sign the mega deal that never materialized in 2011 unless the Packers franchise Jones.

#4 (4, 3) B.J. Raji (DL) - Without Raji, the Packers might not have been able to make a successful transition from the 4-3 to the 3-4.  After overworking Raji to the point of making him ineffective in 2011 (played 79% of defensive snaps), the Packers dialed back Raji's snap count in 2012 (played 65% of defensive snaps) to make him much more effective.  With three quality defensive lineman (Pickett, Raji, and Wilson) in the fold, now the Packers need to identify at least one more defensive lineman (Daniels, Neal, Worthy, and a 2013 draft pick) to play along the defensive line, which will continue to increase Raji's effectiveness in 2013. 

#3 (9, 8) Josh Sitton (G) - Left tackles get paid more than right tackles but that does not seem to apply to guards.  Don't get me wrong, Sitton is a slightly better version of Lang so he justifiably earned a slight larger contract (six-year, $35 million contract with a $6 million signing bonus) than Lang (five-year, $22.5 million contract with a $5.5 million signing bonus).  Look for Sitton and Lang to be a better pair of guards than Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera were for the Packers in the late-90's and early-00's.

#2 (2, 2) Clay Matthews (OLB) - With all due respect to KGB and Aaron Kampman, Matthews has been the best past rusher in Green Bay since Reggie White.  The real question is what that will cost the Packers.  Matthews is entering 2013 in the last year of his rookie contract, which is a five-year, $10 million contract with a $800,000 signing bonus.  Matthews became the first Packer to earn a spot in the Pro Bowl in each of his first four seasons in the NFL so there is no question that the Packers have to extend Matthews at some point before the end of the 2013 season.  The real question is how much will it cost the Packers?  In 2009 the Dallas Cowboys signed outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware to a seven-year, $79 million contract with a $20 million signing bonus.  Before the 2012 season the Buffalo Bills signed defensive end/outside linebacker Mario Williams to a six-year, $96 million contract with a $19 million signing bonus.  Ware looks like he is worth every dollar while Williams struggled last season in Buffalo.  Either way, it looks like Mathews is set to best the Williams contract before the end of 2013.

#1 (1, 1) Aaron Rodgers (QB) - Keeping in mind that the NFL is a quarterback driven league, if a franchise could take any player currently in the NFL to have on their team for the next 10 years, you would be hard pressed to pick anyone besides Rodgers.  Don't get me wrong, there are other veteran quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Payton Manning that are playing as well as Rodgers but they are all in their mid-30's while Rodgers is only 29.  There are also a bunch of young quarterbacks like Robert Griffin, Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, and Russell Wilson but they've all only done it for one year.  Rodgers is in that sweet spot where he's done it for a number of years but is still young enough to build around for the next decade, which make him the hands down #1 ranked player on not only the Packers but probably the entire NFL.

Please feel free to comment if you disagree with any of my rankings.  As always, thanks for reading my extended Packer thoughts.  Check back on Wednesday for my annual advice for general manager Ted Thompson on how to deal with the players on the current roster.

2011 Preseason Week 1 - Packers/Browns Review

The Green Bay Packers flew to D.C. on Friday ahead of their Saturday night preseason game in Cleveland to finally visit the White House to celebrate winning Super Bowl XLV. President Obama is an avid Chicago Bears fan (seems like a non sequitur) so he took a fair amount of heat from Charles Woodson and Aaron Rodgers because the Packers beat the Bears in Chicago to win the NFC Championship Game to go to Super Bowl XLV but President Obama seemed to take the joking in stride. Following their visit to the White House, the Packers traveled to Cleveland to play the Browns in both team's preseason opener. Here are a few quick thoughts on the game:

#1) Player that hurt his stock most: Pat Lee had the chance to shine with some of the top cornerbacks (Woodson and Shields) held out against the Browns. Unfortunately Lee struggled and looks like a long shot to make the roster with Woodson, Williams, Shields, House, and Bush all ahead of Lee at this point.

#2) Player that helped his stock most: Clearly rookie wide receiver Randall Cobb and back-up quarterback Matt Flynn played well against the Browns so let's dig a little deeper. Morgan Burnett's rookie season was cut short when he tore his ACL in Week 4 of the 2010 season against the Lions. With Burnett lost for the season, Charlie Peprah was one of the biggest surprises of last year. Burnett is the safety of the future opposite Collins in Green Bay not Peprah but I was still skeptical how healthy Burnett would be less than a year removed from tearing his ACL. One game does not make a season but the physicality that Burnett showed against the Browns was a welcomed sight.

#3) Position to watch: Going into training camp the Packers decided not to resign former starting left guard Daryn Colledge and starting defensive end Cullen Jenkins among others. The Packers had a couple in-house candidates to fill in for Jenkins (Mike Neal, Howard Green, Jarius Wynn, and C.J. Wilson) but there was no clear-cut candidate to take over at left guard. The Packers drafted Derek Sherrod as the left tackle of the future but they are trying Sherrod at left guard along with holdover T.J. Lang. The Packers shuffled Sherrod and Lang between left tackle and left guard throughout the game. Both players did nothing against the Browns to help or hurt their stock so left guard will continue to be the position to watch when the Packers meet the Arizona Cardinals in their Week 2 preseason game at Lambeau Field on Friday, August 18, 2011.

Final Note: The NFL needs to change the pricing structure of preseason tickets. This has been mentioned in a number of places but the NFL Owners shouldn't charge regular season prices for preseason games. Cleveland Browns Stadium holds a little more than 73,000 people. The reported attendance was 57,077 but only 30,000 people actually attended the game. Here is the quick solution for preseason ticket problems. There are four preseason games. Week 1 and Week 4 games are essentially throwaway games because guys that have very little chance of making the opening 53-man roster play most of those games. Week 2 and Week 3 are the most interesting games because the starters play a good portion of the snaps. The NFL should charge $20 a ticket for the throwaway games (Week 1 and Week 4) and $40 a ticket for the more interesting games (Week 2 and Week 3).

If you enjoyed this "Quick Thoughts" post, check out my first "Quick Thoughts" post on the Cheeseheads Ruling Day 1 of the 2011 PGA Championship.

Ranking Injured Reserve List for 2010 Green Bay Packers

The 2010 Green Bay Packers suffered 16 season ending injuries on their way to Super Bowl XLV. With so many injuries, I thought it would be interesting to rank the 16 players on injured reserve as a little complimentary Super Bowl XLV coverage. Luckily the Packers suffered most of those injuries early in the season so their back-ups were able to get almost a full season under their belt. There are various accounts of how many games the 16 players on injured reserve missed but the prevailing numbers are that players missed 180 regular season games due to injury with 12 starters missing 86 regular season games. Here are my rankings for the players currently on injured reserve:

#16 - Justin Harrell (DE): Jamal Reynolds must love how much of a bust Harrell has become since it let's Reynolds off the hook. With Brian Brohm no longer on the roster, Harrell stands as general manager Ted Thompson's worst draft pick currently still associated with the Packers.

#15 - Josh Bell (CB): Gave up the touchdown to Mike Wallace as time expired to give the Steelers a 37-36 victory over the Packers the last time the two teams met in Pittsburgh in 2009. Bell didn't even make the opening day 53-man roster this year but the Packers saw enough in Bell to put him on injured reserve as opposed to reaching an injury settlement.

#14 - Anthony Levine (S): There are too many able bodied safeties (Bigby, Burnett, Bush, Collins, Martin, Peprah, and Smith) on the roster for Levine to have a realistic shot of wearing the Green and Gold on Sundays anytime soon.

#13 - Spencer Havner (TE): According to various sources, Havner thought he was the best tight end on the roster in training camp. Havner was obviously wrong because the Packer kept four other tight ends (Crabtree, Finley, Lee, and Quarless) ahead of him. If healthy, Havner has a chance to make the roster in 2011 because he is good on special teams and can fill in at linebacker in a pinch.

#12 - Anthony Smith (S): It still perplexes me why Smith was cut in favor of Aaron Rouse at the end of the 2009 training camp. The only way Smith returns to the Packers in 2011 is if Bigby, Martin, and Peprah are not on the roster.

#11 - Brady Poppinga (OLB): Much like safety, the Packers have a ton of young outside linebackers on the roster (Briggs, Francois, Jones, Walden, and Zombo) so Poppinga's time in Green Bay has most likely come to an end. Furthermore, Poppinga looks better suited to play outside linebacker in a 4-3 defense as opposed to a 3-4 defense. If Poppinga is healthy in 2011 he will be playing somewhere else in a 4-3 defense.

#10 - Marshall Newhouse (G/T): The Packers see Newhouse as a developmental prospect with a chance to be their left tackle of the future. With how well Chad Clifton played in 2010, the only way Newhouse sees the field in 2011 is if the Packers suffer a number of injuries along the offensive line. That means 2012 looks like the year for Newhouse to break into the starting lineup.

#9 - Derrick Martin (S): Much like Jarrett Bush, Martin is a special teams ace that is worth a roster spot for that reason alone despite being a liability on defense. Martin has a chance to make the roster in 2011 but it might come down to whether the Packers want to keep Bigby or Martin. If I were in charge, Martin would get the roster spot over Bigby.

#8 - Brandon Chillar (MLB): When the Packers signed Chillar to a four-year extension that runs through the 2013 season he looked like a perfect combo linebacker and special teams contributor with a secure roster spot. Chillar struggled at outside linebacker in training camp so he can only contribute at middle linebacker and on special teams. With the emergence of Desmond Bishop at middle linebacker, Chillar will have to show ability at outside linebacker in 2011 or possibly look for a new home in 2011.

#7 - Mark Tauscher (RT): The Packers asked Tauscher to rehab in Green Bay and help mentor rookie offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga. Tauscher complied but might have helped Bulaga too much because Bulaga owns the right tackle spot no matter how healthy Tauscher is at the start of 2011. With a hefty base salary in 2011, Tauscher might be informally asked to retire so the Packers are not forced to cut him.

#6 - Morgan Burnett (S): The emergence of Charlie Peprah at safety made up for the loss of promising rookie Morgan Burnett. In 2011 Burnett has to prove that he can stay healthy before the Packers hand him the starting safety spot next to Nick Collins.

#5 - Michael Neal (DE): Showed flashes of being a beast along the defensive line but injuries claimed most of Neal's rookie season. Nose tackle B.J. Raji struggled with injuries in his rookie season and flourished this year in his second season in the NFL. Hopefully Neal can follow a similar path and become a force along the defensive line in 2011.

#4 - Brad Jones (OLB): The emergence of Erik Walden and Frank Zombo shows that whoever lines up at the other outside linebacker spot opposite of Clay Matthews will most likely thrive. When healthy, Jones is a better option than Walden or Zombo but all three players struggled with injuries in 2010. Unless the Packers use an early draft choice on an outside linebacker in the 2011 NFL Draft, whoever is healthiest in 2011 deserves a chance to start opposite Matthews.

#3 - Nick Barnett (MLB): Suffering a season ending injury for the second time in three years has called into question how Barnett fits in long-term in Green Bay. Barnett is signed through the 2012 season with high base salaries of $6 million in 2011 and $6.5 million in 2012. According to various talent evaluators, Barnett does not have the right body type to contribute at outside linebacker. That may be true but the Packers play more exotic defensive packages than the standard 3-4 defense. As a result, Barnett deserves the chance to make the 2011 opening day roster.

#2 - Ryan Grant (RB): The Packers lost Grant for the season in Week 1 in Philadelphia. The Packers’ inability to generate a rushing game in 2010 after they lost Grant for the season shows how valuable Grant is to the Packers' rushing offense. The zone blocking scheme the Packers use favors a running back that makes one cut and hits the hole. Ironically it wasn't till the Packers re-visited Philadelphia in the playoffs that they put together another impressive game on the ground when rookie running back James Starks set a Packer rookie playoff rushing record. The running back depth chart going into 2011 should be: Ryan Grant, James Starks, 2011 draft pick, and John Kuhn. That would leave Brandon Jackson off the roster. I know Jackson has improved his blocking which makes him a good 3rd down back but Jackson showed this season that he is not a starting NFL running back.

#1 - Jermichael Finley (TE): Too tall to cover with a defensive back and too fast to cover with a linebacker, Finley is a physical freak that has a chance to be a real NFL superstar. The Packers geared their 2010 offense around Finley so when he was lost for the season it took the Packers a few weeks to get back in rhythm. It will be interesting to see how the Packers re-integrate Finley in their offensive scheme in 2011.

With how well the back-ups played in place of the aforementioned players, only a handful of the players currently on injured reserve will be on the 2011 Green Bay Packers opening day roster. Here are my current guesses for how likely it is that the 16 players above make the 2011 opening day roster:

No Chance: Bell, Harrell, Levine, and Poppinga

Slight Chance: Havner, Martin, Smith, and Tauscher

Great Chance: Barnett, Chillar, and Newhouse

Lock: Burnett, Finley, Grant, Jones, and Neal

Check back throughout the week for more Super Bowl XLV coverage.