The Bucks landed point guard George Hill from the Cavs, forward Jason Smith from the Wizards and a future second round draft pick from the Wizards.
The Wizards landed small forward Sam Dekker from the Cavs and a second round draft pick swap with the Cavs for one of their second round picks that the Cavs received in a previous trade.
The Cavs landed guard Matthew Dellavedova from the Bucks, power forward John Henson from the Bucks, a 2021 protected first round draft pick from the Bucks*, and a 2021 second round pick from the Bucks.
The Cavs landed a first round draft pick in name only because the odds that the they actually get a first round draft pick from the Bucks in 2021 are low since the Bucks still owe the Phoenix Suns a protected first round draft pick** from the trade that netted them point guard Eric Bledsoe. That means that in all likelihood the Bucks will send the Suns their first round draft pick in the 2020 NBA Draft so that means the earliest the Cavs would get the first round draft pick they traded for today is 2022 thanks to the Stephian Rule, which prohibits NBA teams from trading away first round draft picks in consecutive drafts.
The only reason that Horst made this trade is that it will likely clear $18 million off their cap for the 2019-20 NBA season since Hill's contract is for $19 million for the 2019-20 NBA season but only $1 million of that is guaranteed so that means that there is a 99.9% chance that Horst cuts Hill this off-season to free up $18 million in cap space. The Bucks will need to make that new found salary cap space go as far as possible because four of their five current starters are likely set to become free agents this off-season: Bledsoe (earns $15 million this season and is set to become an unrestricted free agent), guard Malcolm Brogdon (is still on a rookie second round contract and is set to become a restricted free agent), small forward Khris Middleton (holds a $13 million player option for the 2019-20 NBA season that he will most likely decline), and center Brook Lopez (signed for essentially the veteran minimum this season and is set to become an unrestricted free agent).
A ton can change between now and July but the Bucks will likely have to bring back all four players if they want to be competitive for the 2019-20 season since their drafts have been mostly underwhelming in recent years. If Horst does that, it means that he will effectively be locking in the core of The 15 for the next couple seasons. I am the highest on Middleton and Brogdon for slightly different reasons. Middleton because he is the perfect 3-and-D player that compliments The Greek Freak, I honestly think Middleton will end up signing a contract worth ~$30 million annually that is coincidentally more per year than The Greek Freak will make through the 2020-21 NBA season. Brogdon because he is a quality combo guard that worst case looks be the perfect second unit leader, I think he will end up signing a contract that averages $12 million annually this off-season.
That leaves Bledsoe and Lopez. I am lukewarm on Bledsoe because he will be 29 years old next season and will look to almost double his annual salary this off-season, which seems too rich to me for a short point guard that is a streaky shooter and defender. Lopez has completely re-invented his game the last couple years, transforming himself from a true back to the basket center into a stretch five that is shooting almost 40% from deep this season so I hope the Bucks can bring him back for a one-year contract for $7 million or less.
Back to the actual trade at hand, you might be wondering why this trade of a ton of injured players happened in early December. It turns out that as long as the trade got done by close of business today (12/07/18) then all the players involved in the trade could be moved at the 2019 NBA trade deadline as well so there was clearly some urgency to getting this deal done.
Given that Horst had to attach a first and second round pick to move Dellavedova and Henson, he should have tried to move Tony Snell, a wanna be 3-and-D guy aka homeless man's Kris Middleton, instead of Dellavedova. I am sure that the Cavs bulked at that because Snell's contract (three years and ~$34.2 million left with the last season a ~$12 million player option that he will no doubt pick-up since he would make so much less on the open market) is more onerous than Dellavedova's contract (two years and ~$19.2 million left) but I would have held the line, especially because if Henson can get back on the court this season then he actually transforms into a potential positive trade asset.
Finally let's not forget that former Bucks general manager John Hammond and Horst were both intimately involved in signing Dellavedova, Henson, and Snell to their contracts so let's settle down on giving Horst too many props for moving bad contracts that he helped hand those players. Also creating cap space gives the Bucks owners a better chance of staying out of the luxury tax but if they balk at paying luxury tax bills, we have serious issues in Milwaukee given that the Bucks currently have one of the best players in the NBA in The Greek Freak and those same owners just got tax payers to pick up ~$250 million of the ~$550 million that it cost to build the new (horribly named) Fiserv Forum aka the Beer Barrel that opened this season. I am not saying that every NBA team should pay the luxury tax but given the confluence of events just mentioned, Bucks ownership owes it to the team and the fan base to pay the luxury tax to fill out The 15, if necessary.
We will have plenty of time to breakdown in much more detail what Horst should do next with The 15 but notice that I haven't even made a single mention of the Bucks looking like they landed former Wisconsin Badgers standout Dekker or what Hill can actually give the Bucks this season. The initial reports were that Dekker was going to the Bucks as a part of this deal but the Wizards jumped into the fray to help reduce their luxury tax burden by taking on Dekker with the Bucks getting a second round pick for taking on the more expensive Smith instead of Dekker. I honestly see Hill as a poor man's, left-handed version of Bledsoe and Smith is effectively just a warm body. I hope to be proven wrong but that doesn't give the Bucks much help on the court other than Hill being an instant offense guy off the bench given that he plays horrible defense, shoots less than 40% from deep for his career, and averages just over 11 points a game for his career. There is no doubt that the next seven months will go a long way towards setting the trajectory of The 15 for the next seven years so make sure to check back in the coming weeks because I plan to break this down from a number of different angles.
* The protections by year are reportedly as follows: 1-14 for 2021, 1-10 for 2022, 1-10 and 25-30 for 2023, 1-8 for 2024, and converts to two second round picks in 2025 if it isn't conveyed earlier.
** The protections by year are reportedly as follows: 1-3 and 17-30 for 2019, 1-7 for 2020, and unprotected for 2021.