Building The 53 - How to Handle the 2019 Free Agents

The Green Bay Packers' season effectively ended before we even got to December thanks to a lifeless 24 to 17 loss on the road to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football.  In case you missed my post following the Packers' previous loss on the road to the Seattle Seahawks, I am not a fan of Packers head coach Mike McCarthy.  There is no doubt that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is at fault as well for this marriage going wrong but the Packers have a ton more invested long-term financially in Rodgers than McCarthy so now it really is time to move on from McCarthy.  Sure the Packers are dealing with a ton of injuries and I understand that it might be viewed as a classless move to fire McCarthy in-season, especially given that the Packers are essentially eliminated from playoff contention, but there are three reasons why I would do it now.  One, there is no way that you can bring McCarthy back to coach the Packers next season unless they somehow miraculously win it all so let's get a jump on it already.  Two, Rodgers' body language and play looked worse each of the last two weeks so it would be nice to start fresh with someone else in charge in hopes that it allows Rodgers to right the ship the last few weeks of this season to take some positive momentum going into the off-season.  Finally, (most) Packers fans are not stupid so they will see keeping McCarthy in charge as punting on the rest of the season (look at ticket prices on the secondary market) so moving on now gives fans at least a glimmer of hope too.

Speaking of the off-season, with the post-season very unlikely this season, it is time to take a look at what business Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst should get done to set the Packers up better for 2019 and beyond.  The Packers currently have a little under $10 million in salary cap space for the rest of the 2018 season and they project to have a little more than $38 million in salary cap space for 2019 given that 20 players are set to become some form of a free agent following the 2018 season: 11 unrestricted*, two restricted**, and seven exclusive rights***.  That gives Gutekunst almost $50 million to play with if he decides to roll all of his 2018 salary cap space into 2019.

The seven exclusive rights free agents are no brainers to bring back for a one-year qualifying offer to be a part of the 90-man off-season roster.  The real question is whether Gutekunst should look to sign any of them to a long-term extension to get them at a more reasonable long-term price if one of them has a breakout season in 2019.  There are a couple guys that look like they have the potential to be future NFL starters but it seems much better to bring each of them back at essentially the cheapest one-year NFL contract available to see how they perform in 2019 than to try to guess among those seven players where the cream is going to rise to the top.

The Packers have two restricted free agents, wide receiver Geronimo Allison and safety Kentrell Brice.  The Packers can negotiate a long-term deal with either player but typically NFL teams tender restricted free agents one of three one-year contracts: a first round tender for ~$4 million, a second round tender for ~$2.75 million, and ~$1.8 million for their original round.  Another NFL team can sign a player tendered a one-year contract to a longer term contract, which would allow Gutekunst to match that contract or receive compensation based on the tender that they signed.  Both Allison and Brice are at least worth keeping around for 2019 but both are undrafted players so the Packers wouldn't get any draft pick compensation for them unless they placed the first or second round tender on them and even the "original round" tender feels rich for either of those guys so I would approach both about coming back for less than the lowest tender on a one-year, veteran minimum prove-it deal.

Of the 11 unrestricted free agents, there are a couple pretty simple decisions so let's knock those out first.  There are two guys on the defensive side of the ball in defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson and cornerback Davon House on the wrong side of 30 that are coming off serious season ending injuries so I would just let them walk.  On the offensive side of the ball I would let tight end Mercedes Lewis, tight end Lance Kendricks, and offensive lineman Byron Bell walk too.  I considered the veteran minimum for Bell but honestly think the Packers just need to get younger at that spot.  While we are talking about veteran minimums, I would be fine giving linebacker Korey Toomer and safety Ibraheim Campbell each one-year veteran minimum deals essentially as flyers since we haven't seen enough from them this season to see if having them in the fold for the off-season will give them a chance to actually contribute on the field in 2019.  Worst case, you can cut Toomer and Campbell before the start of the 2019 season without incur any significant salary cap hit.

That leaves four unrestricted free agents that are a little trickier so it involves a little more analysis.  Of those four, the most interesting one to me is cornerback Bashaud Breeland given that this off-season he had a three-year, $24 million contract with the Carolina Panthers nullified for a freakish heel injury.  The Packers added Breeland at the end of September when they put House on injured reserve.  It took until early November for Breeland to actually see the field and so far Breeland has shown flashes of what made him an eight million dollar a year cornerback.  It feels like taking the easy way out to take a wait-and-see approach with Breeland but that is the only option at this point given his past/current injury issues.  If Breeland can get healthy to finish out 2018, I would be more than open to bringing him back in 2019 if he shows anything down the stretch in 2018.

Unfortunately for linebacker Jake Ryan, he will be coming off a serious knee injury just as he enters free agency following the expiration of his rookie contract.  Ryan tore his ACL in training camp so the only silver linking is that it gave him a few extra months to rehab his knee.  A two-year, $4 million contract with some decent sized per game roster bonuses included in the deal is the most you can offer Ryan given that he is coming off a serious knee injury and plays inside linebacker so you can't afford to overpay him, especially with decent starter and back-up options already under contract for 2019.

Absent a career threatening injury, we aren't going to learn anything new about wide receiver Randall Cobb and outside linebacker Clay Matthews that we didn't already know.  Honestly when I went to the Packers/Giants playoff game in 2017, I thought that was going to be Cobb's last game as a Packers but he turned in a playoff performance for the ages that included catching a Hail Rodgers to end the first half.  Given that the Packers are likely not going to the playoffs this year, we don't have to worry about that happening again for either (really trying for the reverse jinx here).  The Packers have a ton of young, interesting options at wide receiver given that two of their three rookie wide receivers look like future NFL starters.  That said, once the Packers finally replace head coach Mike McCarthy, I see Cobb as a versatile weapon that when healthy can be used as a punt returner, slot receiver, and even a halfback in a pinch.  A three-year, $18 million contract that is front-end loaded with $8 million guaranteed seems fair to being Cobb back for a couple more years.  Plus, Cobb is buddies with Rodgers so I think having a couple veterans is the least that you can do to keep Rodgers happy and able to run some of sandlot plays for big gains each game.

I saved the biggest name, Matthews, for last.  Matthews is on the wrong side of 30 and his impact continues to drop each season so I say let him walk unless he wants to sign a one-year contract for the veteran minimum.  Sure it seems more complicated than that and offering Matthews such a paltry deal for next season seems like a slap in the face given that he is making ~$11.4 million this season but I view Matthews this off-season much like I viewed wide receiver Jordy Nelson last off-season.  The Packers reportedly offered Nelson a one-year contract for the veteran minimum, which Nelson balked at so he signed a two-year, $14.2 million contract with the Oakland Raiders that pays him ~$7.4 million this season and the Raiders owe him nothing for 2019 if they cut him before March of 2019.  I would rather move on a year too early than a year too late, which proved to be the correct decision with Nelson given that over nine games this season he has only caught 25 passes for 353 yards and three touchdowns.  Matthews is having a similarly underwhelming season this year with 30 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and 1 forced fumble.

I wish the Packers had a bunch of pass rushers waiting in the wings behind Matthews but it looks like the Packers might be replacing both of their starting outside linebackers this off-season because outside linebacker Nick Perry was recently placed on injured reserve with a knee injury amidst having an underwhelming 2018 season.  In a contract year in 2016, Perry finally fulfilled all the promise that made him a first round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft when he posted 11 sacks that netted him a five-year, $59 million contract that contained a $18.5 million signing bonus.  Perry had a pretty good season in 2017 playing the run well and posting seven sacks but as I just mentioned, 2018 saw Perry's performance fall off a cliff given that he only registered 1.5 sacks in nine games before going on injured reserve.  Perry will have a $14.7 million cap hit for the 2019 season, which seems super rich for an under performing guy coming off a serious injury.  Plus Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine uses players in unique ways dropping defensive lineman and rush linebackers into coverage so I see guys like Matthews and Perry being less valuable, especially with cheaper options available like Kyler Fackrell, Reggie Gilbert, a high 2019 NFL draft pick, and a cost-effective 2019 free agent.

If the Packers designate Perry as a pre-June 1st release they carry $11.1 million of dead money on their 2019 salary cap but save $3.6 million in cap space in 2019.  If the Packers designate Perry as a post-June 1st release they carry $3.7 million of dead money on their 2019 salary cap and $7.4 million of dead money on their 2020 salary cap but save $11.1 million in cap space in 2019.  I would approach Perry's agent Joe Panos about re-negotiating a significantly discounted deal.  If Panos balks then I would designate Perry as a pre-June 1st cut and take your lumps this season instead of mortgaging the future.  If Panos is open to re-negotiating Perry's deal, I would look to turn it into a two-year $20 million deal with $8 million guaranteed in 2019 and nothing guaranteed in 2020 besides the pro-rated signing bonus.

While we are looking at the outside linebacker position, it is worth mentioning that failing to land outside linebacker Khalil Mack this off-season via trade from the Oakland Raiders is going to go down as one of the worst misses in franchise history.  Mack along with Rodgers are clearly two of the 10 best players irrespective of position in the NFL.  I know earlier that I said outside linebackers aren't as valuable in Pettine's scheme but there are exceptions to that rule, especially for transcendent players like Mack.  There is a chance that Gutekunst offered a deal similar to what the Chicago Bears and Raiders ultimately agreed to****.  Sure the six-year, $141 million contract that the Bears signed Mack to soon after trading for him might have been hard to fit under the cap for the Packers in 2018 given the large deal they just gave Rodgers but you have to do anything in your power to get guys like Mack since they don't become available via trade that often.  I also get that the Raiders might have passed on trading with the Packers because they thought that the Bears picks would be better that the Packers picks.  Basically that is Gutekunst's only out here but if he wasn't willing to give up what the Bears did for a player the caliber of Mack then I worry that is going to be a pall that hangs over his entire tenure as general manager that we get to see at least twice a year when the Packers face the Bears.

There are a couple other guys currently on The 53 that might be candidates to get cut and/or have their contracts re-negotiated.  I figured it made sense to discuss Perry's situation and go on my Mack rant because it is somewhat intertwined with Matthews but I will leave my thoughts on other candidates to get cut and/or have their contract re-negotiated for another post.  A special thanks to Spotrac and Over the Cap that were helpful to provide the financial stuff highlighted in this post.  Make Sure to check back soon because as the Packers nose dive, I am invigorated to help them turn things around by providing my advice via blog posts.

* Unrestrcited Free Agents (11):

- Offense (4): Randall Cobb (WR, $10 million average and will be 29), Marcedes Lewis (TE, $2.1 million and will be 35), Lance Kendricks (TE, $2.0 million and will be 31), and Byron Bell (G/T, $1.6 million, and will be 30).

- Defense (7): Muhammad Wilkerson (DE, $5 million and will be 30), Clay Matthews (OLB, $13.4 million average and will be 33), Jake Ryan (ILB,  $0.7 million average and will be 27), Korey Toomer (ILB, $0.8 million and will be 30), Davon House (CB, $1 million and will be 30), Bashaud Breeland (CB, $0.9 million and will be 27), and Ibraheim Campbell (SS, $0.7 million and will be 27).

** Restricted Free Agents (2):

- Offense (1): Geronimo Allison (WR, $0.6 million average and will be 25).

- Defense (1): Kentrell Brice (S, $0.5 million and will be 25).

*** Exclusive Rights Free Agents (7):

- Offense (5): Tre Carson (RB, $0.6 million and will be 26), Robert Tonyan Jr. (TE, $0.5 million and will be 25), Jake Kumerov (WR, $0.5 million and will be 27), Lucas Patrick (G,  $0.6 million average and will be 26), and Justin McCray (G, $0.6 million and will be 27).

- Defense (2): Reggie Gilbert (OLB, $0.5 million and will be 26) and Tyler Lancaster (DT, $0.5 million and will be 24).

**** Trade Details:
- Chicago Bears get Khalil Mack, 2020 2nd round pick, and 2020 conditional 5th round pick.
- Oakland Raiders get 2019 1st round pick, 2020 1st round pick, 2019 6th round pick, and 2020 3rd round pick.

Mike McCarthy's Swan Song

Well nothing like the Green Bay Packers effectively getting eliminated from the playoff picture before Thanksgiving to get me to post something for the first time in over a year and a half.  It only seems fitting that the Packers see that happen at CenturyLink Field against the Seattle Seahawks because that stadium has been a house of horrors for the Packers given that they haven't won there since 2008 and have gone 0-4, including the infamous Fail Mary game on Monday Night Football in 2012 that effectively put an end to the use of replacement NFL referees followed a few years later by the 2015 NFC Championship Game where the Packers snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory in one of the most painful losses in franchise history.

Honestly the crossroad that the Packers organization are at right now can be drawn directly back to that 2015 NFC Championship Game because that is the day that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, whether he will ever admit or not, lost faith in head coach Mike McCarthy because of how conservative McCarthy got with his in-game decisions when the Packers had a great chance to go to the Super Bowl.  Since then Rodgers has gotten into a number of sideline disagreements with McCarthy and taken a number of not so thinly veiled shots at McCarthy in press conferences. Don't get me wrong, Rodgers hasn't been perfect over the last few years but just look how the Packers have fared without Rodgers over that same time frame.  If McCarthy is in fact an offensive genius, he wouldn't have gone 3-6 with Brett Hundley under center in 2017.  Juxtapose that with the Philadelphia Eagles that won the Super Bowl last season without their franchise quarterback.  I understand that is not a completely fair comparison but seeing how last season played out for the Packers and Eagles shows you how dependent the Packers are on Rodgers.

With that as a backdrop, last off-season the Packers rightly moved on from general manager Ted Thompson.  The modern NFL had passed Thompson by given that he continued to rely solely on the draft as his means for building The 53.  It would be one thing if Thompson continued to nail more draft picks than not like he did earlier in his tenure but the last couple drafts have been littered with more misses than hits so the fact that Thompson continually refused to dip into free agency to add talent to The 53 meant that it was time to go in a new direction.

Packers President Mark Murphy had three very viable internal options to replace Thompson in Brian Gutekunst, Russ Ball, and Elliot Wolf.  Ultimately Murphy went with Gutekunst and "elevated" Ball to keep him in the organization despite passing him over for the job of general manager, which lead to Wolf leaving the Packers for the Cleveland Browns where he joined a number of former Packer front office folks to try to turn around the fortunes of one of the most tortured NFL franchises.  It is way too early to say that Murphy made the wrong choice in picking Gutekunst over Ball and Wolf.  That said, the day Gutekunst was named general manager, it was also announced that Gutekunst, Ball, and McCarthy would all report directly to Murphy.  If the 2015 NFC Championship Game was the beginning of the end for McCarthy and Rodgers, Murphy's decision to come up with a three-headed monster that report to him might be the beginning of the end for Murphy as well.  In almost everyone's eyes besides Murphy and Thompson, McCarthy should have been replaced years ago.  Instead of giving Gutekunst power over that decision, Murphy held onto that power and put McCarthy on the same level of the organizational chart as Gutekunst and Ball for some unknown reason.

With all of that as background, the clear next step is that McCarthy has to go and I mean before this Thanksgiving.   Yes, I know McCarthy has been with the Packers for a long time and won a Super Bowl but McCarthy's offense is Blockbuster-esque in how innovative it is and the Packers clearly need a Netflix-esque innovation on offense because the clock is ticking on Rodgers's tenure in Green Bay despite fact that he is under contract through 2023.  Don't get me wrong, Rodgers hasn't played up to his lofty standards in 2018 but one has nothing to do with the other.  While this might seem like a complicated decision on its face, the Packers committed to Rodgers with the richest contract in NFL history so I understand that the general rule is that management doesn't want players to run the team but there are exceptions to the rule and Rodgers has earned that right in more ways than one to be that exception.  When it comes down to it, if I had to choose Rodgers or McCarthy, I would choose Rodgers 100 times out of a 100 and not think twice about it.

I hate to say it but the night that the Packers won Super Bowl XLV, my mind immediately went to worrying that Rodgers would only win one Super Bowl in Green Bay just like Brett Favre did.  You can argue about where Favre and Rodgers rank all-time but there is no doubt that they are two of the ten best quarterback in NFL history so it is downright shocking that they might only have one Super Bowl each when it is all said and done.  Hell, Rodgers hasn't even gotten back to a Super Bowl since winning Super Bowl XLV.  Honestly, with how things look on The 53 right now, I am not sure that the Packers will have a chance to put the proper pieces around Rodgers to get back there but you still have to try to do everything in your power to at least get back to the Super Bow.

That is why Murphy needs to push in his chips right now to right the wrong he made this off-season to tame the three-headed monster.  Step one is to fire McCarthy and start looking for his replacement immediately.  Step two is to come to an understanding that Ball reports to Gutekunst and if Ball doesn't like that then show him the door too.  Step three is for Murphy and Gutekunst to identify the right young, offensive mind that will help the Packers get the most out of Rodgers and company.  If I had to rank the candidates right now there are three offensive minds that I would focus on: University of Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley, Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, and New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.  Sure you can nitpick each candidate but there is no doubt that each helps bring the Packers offensive out of the 20th century and into the 21st century.

The NFL is just like all other pro sports in that it is a results oriented, win-now business and it is high time that the Packers treat it like that instead of running away from making any changes by letting everyone rest on their laurels.  The Milwaukee Bucks have a once in a generation talent in The Greek Freak.  Instead of sticking with perpetually disappointing head coach Jason Kidd, they moved on to Mike Budenholzer and look like one of the best teams in the NBA despite no major changes to The 15.  Sure there is a chance that replacing McCarthy blows up in Murphy's face and the franchise goes into a tailspin but it is clear that the Packers aren't winning a Super Bowl with their current set-up and that should be their sole focus given that they have a once in a generation talent on The 53 in Rodgers.