Welcome to you second annual overpaid/underpaid post. Milwaukee Brewers majority owner Mark Attanasio has consistently increased payroll since buying the team in 2005. In less than 10 years Attanasio has increased payroll from roughly $27 million in 2004 to over $100 million for the first time in franchise history in 2012. Keep in mind the Brewers will eclipse $100 million in payroll as Prince Fielder and his $15.5 million salary from 2011 comes off the books since Fielder signed a monster contract with the Detroit Tigers. As you can imagine, a fair amount of guys from 2011 made the list this season. Here is my take on the most overpaid and underpaid players on the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers opening day roster:
Overpaid:
Honorable Mention: Shaun Marcum (RHP, $7.725 million) and Cesar Izturis (SS, $875,000)
#5) Aramis Ramirez (3B, $6 million): Last year Ramirez had an uptick in his performance at the plate hitting .306 with 26 home runs and 93 RBI (flawed stat) in a contract year so 2012 has regression written all over it. It's not so much the $6 million that Ramirez will earn in 2012, its the fact that the Brewers have a more than competent option in Triple-A in Taylor Green that would only cost them $500,000 in 2012. Add in that the Brewers signed Ramirez to a back-end loaded three-year, $36 million contract and unless Ramirez gets traded he will be on this list through 2014.
#4) Corey Hart (RF, $9 million): The Brewers have a couple impressive minor league outfield prospects (Caleb Gindl and Logan Schafer) that are currently blocked at the major league level by Hart. I would much rather pay Gindl $500,000 than Hart $9 million but that doesn't sell tickets.
#3) Randy Wolf (LHP, $9.5 million): When you fail to draft quality starting pitchers you are forced to overpay for middle of the rotation starting pitchers in free agency like the Brewers did with Wolf. Thanks to some decent drafts the last few seasons the Brewers finally have a bunch of potential starting pitchers at all levels of their minor league system (Jed Bradley, Taylor Jungmann, Wily Peralta, Cody Scarpetta, and Tyler Thornburg) that project as potential major league starting pitchers. The Brewers hold a $10 million option on Wolf for 2013 with a $1.5 million buyout. The progress of some of their minor league pitchers will go a long way towards determining if the Brewers pick-up Wolf's option. Hopefully if those guys continue to develop the Brewers might not have to overpay for guys like Wolf in the future.
#2) Rickie Weeks (2B, $10 million): Injuries have derailed the two-time collegiate batting champ since he joined the Brewers. Injuries aside, Weeks is nothing more than a below average fielding 2nd baseman and an above average offensive player with speed. That previous sentence doesn't describe a guy worth $10 million. With Scooter Gennett scheduled to start at 2nd base in Double-A this year, the Brewers have a younger and cheaper option nipping at Weeks' injured riddled heels.
#1) K-Rod (RHP, $8 million): After a soft market for closers didn't get K-Rod a mega-closer-contract that his agent (Scott Boras) promised he accepted arbitration to earn $8 million in 2012, which is more money that the rest of bullpen is scheduled to earn combined (Kameron Loe owed $2.175 million, Jose Veras owed $2 million, Manny Parra owed $1.2 million, John Axford owed $525,000, Marco Estrada owed $486,000, and Tim Dillard owed $482,000). K-Rod better cash his checks and keep his mouth shut this year because last year K-Rod complained about being just a set-up guy as opposed to the closer despite the fact that closer John Axford put together arguably the best closer performance in franchise history.
Underpaid:
Honorable Mention: Chris Narveson (LHP, $500,000) and Marco Estrada (RHP, $486,000)
#5) Jonathan Lucroy (C, $500,000): The Brewers and Lucroy recently agreed to a five-year (possibly six) contract worth a minimum of $11 million and a maximum of $18 million (if the Brewers exercise their $5.25 million option for 2017). The Brewers priced in a raise if Lucroy qualifies as a "Super Two" player following 2012 because that means that Lucroy would only have two seasons at league minimum instead of three before becoming arbitration eligible for the next four seasons. In order to qualify as "Super Two" Lucroy will have to finish in the top 22% of a complicated MLB algorithm, which he projects to do just barely. If Lucroy does not qualify for Super Two status he will earn much less in 2013 ($750,000 v. $1.9 million) otherwise the rest of the base salaries are similar. Here is the breakdown of what Lucroy will earn if he does NOT qualify for "Super Two" status in 2012: $750,00 in 2013, $2 million in 2014, $3 million in 2015, and $4 million in 2016. If Lucroy does qualify for "Super Two" status in 2012 he will earn: $1.9 million in 2013, $2.3 million in 2014, $3.3 million in 2015, and $4.25 million in 2016. "Super Two" status aside, I love the contract even if Lucroy has one or two below average seasons between now and 2017 for one simple reason, veteran backup catchers make at least $1 million a year so the Brewers are getting a younger starting catcher with a much bigger upside for about the same amount for at least the next five seasons.
#4) John Axford (RHP, $525,000): The Brewers are currently talking with Axford's representatives about a long-term contract extension. Despite everything I just said about Lucroy it makes no sense to do the same thing with Axford because of how unpredictable closer performances are year-to-year besides the super human Mariano Rivera. Axford is not even salary arbitration eligible till 2013 meaning he cannot become a free agent till after the 2016 season at the earliest. The Brewers should go year-to-year with Axford. If Axford performs well for the next few years, the Brewers will pay for it. If Axford struggles, the Brewers don't have to worry about a long-term financial commitment. I guess that's a long way of saying I think its worth paying long-term for catching as opposed to saves.
#3) Zack Greinke (RHP, $13.5 million): If the Brewers did not have the reigning N.L. MVP (Ryan Braun) and their opening day starter (Yovani Gallardo) earning less than Greinke combined, I would have Greinke #1 on this list despite being the highest paid player on the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers. Greinke is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2012 season and has been without an agent all off-season as the Brewers tried to sign him long-term. In the interim the San Francisco Giants signed right handed starting pitcher Matt Cain to a six-year, $127.5 million contract. While that is great financial news for the Cain and Greinke families, it's a big blow to the Brewers. If you look at Cain's numbers (69-73 with a 3.35 ERA in 204 games) v. Greinke's numbers (76-73 with a 3.82 ERA in 238 games), Greinke still has a better resume since he pitched in the American League for a good portion of those start en route to winning the CY Young in 2009. Cain is 11 months younger that Greinke, which makes age less of a factor. Now that Greinke re-hired his old agent Casey Close that moved from Creative Artists Agency to Excel Sports Management, the Brewers better get ready to pay Greinke at least $20 million a year if they want to keep him in Milwaukee.
#2) Yovani Gallardo (RHP, $5.5 million): Only a handful of teams can truly claim to have more than one "Ace" in their starting rotation. Salary aside I would much rather have Greinke and his quirky personality than Gallardo. When you factor in that Gallardo is scheduled to earn $8 million less than Greinke in 2012 then Gallardo becomes much more valuable to me than Greinke. Even if Greinke leaves after 2012, at least the Brewers have Gallardo signed through 2014.
#1) Ryan Braun (LF, $6 million): Thanks to Braun pulling the Reverse Al Capone the Brewers will get the reigning NL MVP's services for only $6 million...enough said.
A special thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for providing all the financial data used for this post.
Check back the rest of the week and throughout the weekend for a ton of Milwaukee Brewers coverage as the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers open the defense of their 2011 N.L. Central Title against their hated rival and 2011 World Series champs the St. Louis Cardinals.
Related Posts:
- Quick Thoughts - 2012 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster
- Quick Thoughts - Braun pulls the Reverse Al Capone
- Wednesday What (Should) Happen - 2012 Milwaukee Brewers Spring Training Preview
Showing posts with label Randy Wolf. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Randy Wolf. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Milwaukee Brewers Win the 2011 N.L. Central
I was going to post something earlier but my buddy Sug and I got together for our annual Madden franchise draft so I had to delay posting my thoughts till today.
Mama Cheese and Papa Cheese got to see the Milwaukee Brewers clinch their first division title in 29 years at Thriller while I watched the Brewers clinch the N.L. Central on MLB Network.
Former Brewers relief pitcher and current MLB Network analyst Dan Plesac gave his extended thoughts on how Ryan Braun could go down as one of the best Brewers of all-time along with the likes of Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, and Company. That is definitely possible, I just hope Braun continues to produce offensively because he is an average defender at best.
I hate to be negative right out of the gate but with the impeding departure of Prince Fielder after the season, fans should relish this division title for a long time. The current roster does not look like a World Series contender and next year it will be much weaker with Prince playing somewhere else.
Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin did a nice job of assembling some quality regular season starting pitchers picking up the like of Randy Wolf and Shaun Marcum but the only prime time starter the Brewers have are Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke. The Arizona Diamondbacks won a World Series with two stud starters but the duo of Randy Johnson and Curt Shilling is much better than Gallardo and Greinke.
Papa Cheese is a huge baseball fan so I'm glad that he got to see the Brewers clinch N.L. Central in-person because it might be the first and last division title for the Brewers for a very long time.
Mama Cheese and Papa Cheese got to see the Milwaukee Brewers clinch their first division title in 29 years at Thriller while I watched the Brewers clinch the N.L. Central on MLB Network.
Former Brewers relief pitcher and current MLB Network analyst Dan Plesac gave his extended thoughts on how Ryan Braun could go down as one of the best Brewers of all-time along with the likes of Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, and Company. That is definitely possible, I just hope Braun continues to produce offensively because he is an average defender at best.
I hate to be negative right out of the gate but with the impeding departure of Prince Fielder after the season, fans should relish this division title for a long time. The current roster does not look like a World Series contender and next year it will be much weaker with Prince playing somewhere else.
Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin did a nice job of assembling some quality regular season starting pitchers picking up the like of Randy Wolf and Shaun Marcum but the only prime time starter the Brewers have are Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke. The Arizona Diamondbacks won a World Series with two stud starters but the duo of Randy Johnson and Curt Shilling is much better than Gallardo and Greinke.
Papa Cheese is a huge baseball fan so I'm glad that he got to see the Brewers clinch N.L. Central in-person because it might be the first and last division title for the Brewers for a very long time.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
2011 Milwaukee Brewers - Most Overpaid and Most Underpaid
On the eve of the 2011 season I thought I would take a look at the five most overpaid and five most underpaid Brewers in 2011.
Overpaid:
Honorable Mention: Manny Parra (LHP, $1.2 million), Carlos Gomez (CF, $1.5 million), and Takashi Saito (RHP, $1.75 million)
#5) Zack Greinke (RHP, $13.5 Million): If Greinke started his Brewer career healthy, there is no chance he makes the overpaid list. Unfortunately as I discussed in a recent chat with Gordon Edes of ESPN, the Brewers still have to pay Zack Greinke despite the fact that he is going to miss at least a month of the season, which translate into missing five or six starts. Greinke started 32, 33, and 33 games from 2008 to 2010. That means if Greinke misses 6 starts he will only make 27 starts at best in 2011. As a result Greinke will miss roughly 20% of his starts so that bumps him into the overpaid group.
#4) Corey Hart (RF, $6.833 Million): Much like Greinke, Hart is starting the 2011 season on the disabled list so that made him a prime candidate for the overpaid list as well. Even if Hart started the season healthy, he is still the 4th highest paid Brewer behind only Fielder, Greinke, and Wolf. The Brewers are already hiding Braun’s defensive deficiencies in left field. Hart does not have those same deficiencies so why not utilize his speed better in center or his length better at first base. In 2012 the Brewers need to move Hart to center field or first base if they want to get the proper bang for their buck.
#3) Randy Wolf (LHP, $9.5 million): Wolf had a horrendous start to 2010 after signing a three-year, $29.75 million contract. Fortunately Wolf buckled down towards the end of the season to help quiet the boo-birds. Unfortunately paying a middle of the rotation starter $9.5 million a year is way too much money, especially for a small market team like the Milwaukee Brewers.
#2) Yuniesky Betancourt (SS, $4.375 million): It is never a good thing when $1 million of your contract is being paid by a team that you played for (Seattle Mariners) before the team that traded you (Kansas City Royals) to the Brewers.
#1) LaTroy Hawkins (RHP, $4.25 Million): You know you are overpaid when your oft-injured reliever is making more than your left relief specialist (Stetter), primary set-up guy (Loe), and closer (Axford) combined. Hawkins was signed to stabilize the bullpen before the 2010 but Hawkins has spent more time on disabled list than pitching.
Underpaid:
Honorable Mention: Chris Narveson (LHP, $441,500), Mark Kotsay (1B/OF, $800,000), and Craig Counsell (INF, $1,400,000).
#5) Jonathan Lucroy (C, $424,000): Despite starting the season on the disable list, Lucroy is still a starting catcher that is making the league minimum at one of the hardest positions to field besides starting pitching. Lucroy looks like a franchise catcher in the making that is not even arbitration eligible till 2013 or a free agent till 2017. That salary flexibility at such a hard position to fill allows the Brewers to overpay at other positions (you're welcome overpaid list).
#4) John Axford (RHP, $442,500): Much like Lucroy, Axford plays a hard position to fill (closer) at the league minimum that is not arbitration eligible till 2013 or a free agent till 2017. Plus, Axford has the classiest stache in major league baseball so how could he possibly be overpaid?
#3) Casey McGehee (3B) - $468,000): With how great Ryan Braun has been offensively, Braun’s atrocious defense at 3rd base forced the Brewers to move Braun to left field. Luckily McGehee has flourished where Mat Gamel and a host of other “up and coming” prospects were supposed to play. With how well McGehee has played, the Brewers need to consider reaching a long-term deal with McGehee before the end of 2011 because in 2012 McGehee is salary arbitration eligible for the first time in his career meaning he will get a huge raise.
#2) Yovani Gallardo (RHP, $3.50 Million): Gallardo would be the #1 starter on most teams. With Greinke in the fold, albeit on the disabled list, Gallardo is one of the most dangerous #2 starting pitchers outside Philadelphia and San Francisco. Enjoy the low price while you can though because Gallardo is schedule to make $5.75 million in 2012, $8 million in 2013, and $11.5 million in 2014.
#1) Ryan Braun (LF, $4.287 million): As I pointed out in one of my first Sunday Funday Posts, Braun signed the most club friendly contract in major league history besides Evan Longoria. The only knock against Braun is that he plays arguably the easiest position in baseball to fill. That said, if Braun stayed at 3rd base he would have priced himself out of Milwaukee. With Braun signed through 2015 he is the face of the franchise. Furthermore, if Braun continues to perform well offensively though 2015 he has a chance to knock Paul Molitor off the Milwaukee Brewers Mount Rushmore.
Check back Sunday for my initial rankings of the 2011 Milwaukee Brewers.
Overpaid:
Honorable Mention: Manny Parra (LHP, $1.2 million), Carlos Gomez (CF, $1.5 million), and Takashi Saito (RHP, $1.75 million)
#5) Zack Greinke (RHP, $13.5 Million): If Greinke started his Brewer career healthy, there is no chance he makes the overpaid list. Unfortunately as I discussed in a recent chat with Gordon Edes of ESPN, the Brewers still have to pay Zack Greinke despite the fact that he is going to miss at least a month of the season, which translate into missing five or six starts. Greinke started 32, 33, and 33 games from 2008 to 2010. That means if Greinke misses 6 starts he will only make 27 starts at best in 2011. As a result Greinke will miss roughly 20% of his starts so that bumps him into the overpaid group.
#4) Corey Hart (RF, $6.833 Million): Much like Greinke, Hart is starting the 2011 season on the disabled list so that made him a prime candidate for the overpaid list as well. Even if Hart started the season healthy, he is still the 4th highest paid Brewer behind only Fielder, Greinke, and Wolf. The Brewers are already hiding Braun’s defensive deficiencies in left field. Hart does not have those same deficiencies so why not utilize his speed better in center or his length better at first base. In 2012 the Brewers need to move Hart to center field or first base if they want to get the proper bang for their buck.
#3) Randy Wolf (LHP, $9.5 million): Wolf had a horrendous start to 2010 after signing a three-year, $29.75 million contract. Fortunately Wolf buckled down towards the end of the season to help quiet the boo-birds. Unfortunately paying a middle of the rotation starter $9.5 million a year is way too much money, especially for a small market team like the Milwaukee Brewers.
#2) Yuniesky Betancourt (SS, $4.375 million): It is never a good thing when $1 million of your contract is being paid by a team that you played for (Seattle Mariners) before the team that traded you (Kansas City Royals) to the Brewers.
#1) LaTroy Hawkins (RHP, $4.25 Million): You know you are overpaid when your oft-injured reliever is making more than your left relief specialist (Stetter), primary set-up guy (Loe), and closer (Axford) combined. Hawkins was signed to stabilize the bullpen before the 2010 but Hawkins has spent more time on disabled list than pitching.
Underpaid:
Honorable Mention: Chris Narveson (LHP, $441,500), Mark Kotsay (1B/OF, $800,000), and Craig Counsell (INF, $1,400,000).
#5) Jonathan Lucroy (C, $424,000): Despite starting the season on the disable list, Lucroy is still a starting catcher that is making the league minimum at one of the hardest positions to field besides starting pitching. Lucroy looks like a franchise catcher in the making that is not even arbitration eligible till 2013 or a free agent till 2017. That salary flexibility at such a hard position to fill allows the Brewers to overpay at other positions (you're welcome overpaid list).
#4) John Axford (RHP, $442,500): Much like Lucroy, Axford plays a hard position to fill (closer) at the league minimum that is not arbitration eligible till 2013 or a free agent till 2017. Plus, Axford has the classiest stache in major league baseball so how could he possibly be overpaid?
#3) Casey McGehee (3B) - $468,000): With how great Ryan Braun has been offensively, Braun’s atrocious defense at 3rd base forced the Brewers to move Braun to left field. Luckily McGehee has flourished where Mat Gamel and a host of other “up and coming” prospects were supposed to play. With how well McGehee has played, the Brewers need to consider reaching a long-term deal with McGehee before the end of 2011 because in 2012 McGehee is salary arbitration eligible for the first time in his career meaning he will get a huge raise.
#2) Yovani Gallardo (RHP, $3.50 Million): Gallardo would be the #1 starter on most teams. With Greinke in the fold, albeit on the disabled list, Gallardo is one of the most dangerous #2 starting pitchers outside Philadelphia and San Francisco. Enjoy the low price while you can though because Gallardo is schedule to make $5.75 million in 2012, $8 million in 2013, and $11.5 million in 2014.
#1) Ryan Braun (LF, $4.287 million): As I pointed out in one of my first Sunday Funday Posts, Braun signed the most club friendly contract in major league history besides Evan Longoria. The only knock against Braun is that he plays arguably the easiest position in baseball to fill. That said, if Braun stayed at 3rd base he would have priced himself out of Milwaukee. With Braun signed through 2015 he is the face of the franchise. Furthermore, if Braun continues to perform well offensively though 2015 he has a chance to knock Paul Molitor off the Milwaukee Brewers Mount Rushmore.
Check back Sunday for my initial rankings of the 2011 Milwaukee Brewers.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Midseason Rankings of the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers
We are only half way through the 2010 major league baseball season and Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin has been a busy man. There are already 6 new faces on the current Milwaukee Brewers 25-man active roster. There are various reasons for the 6 new faces: one guy was released (#24-Claudio Vargas), four guys are on the disabled list (#23-Jody Gerut, #16-LaTroy Hawkins, #15-Gregg Zaun, and #14-Doug Davis), and one guy was sent to the minors (#19-Mitch Stetter).
The 6 new faces the Brewers added to the current 25-man roster are a nice blend of young pitchers (John Axford, Zach Braddock, and Kameron Loe), old pitchers (Chris Capuano and David Riske), and a potential franchise catcher (Jonathan Lucroy). The aforementioned 6 new faces will have an "NR" in parenthesis next to their name, while the other 19 players will have my initial 2010 ranking in parenthesis. As usual I ranked the player based on age, depth at each position, compensation, and clubhouse impact. Without further ado, here are the updated rankings:
#25 (NR) - David Riske (RHP): I don't put much stock in Riske's 2.70 ERA because he has only made 7 appearances and pitched 6.2 innings. I know this seems petty, but why did Doug Melvin sign a reliever named Riske?
#24 (20) - George Kottaras (C): in 35 games Kottaras has amassed a paltry .208 average over 106 at-bats. Kottaras will get his chances in the second half of 2010, which will be an audition for the back-up catcher spot for 2011 because recently promoted Jonathan Lucroy looks like the catcher of the future in Milwaukee after only 19 games.
#23 (NR) - Chris Capuano (LHP): much like Riske, I feel for Capuano on a personal level for all the injuries that he has gone through. That said, Capuano is a professional baseball player and injuries are part of the game. Capuano is 0-1 in 4 appearances (1 start) over 7 innings for a 5.14 ERA so he is going to have to produce soon or it might be time for the Brewers and Capuano to part ways for good.
#22 (25) - Joe Inglett (UTIL): is the Swiss army knife of field players for the Brewers because Inglett is able to play anywhere in the field besides catcher and first base. Inglett is batting a team-high .340 but take that with a grain of salt because it is only over 53 at-bats. Inglett is on the roster for flexibility as a pinch hitter and a spot starter so he better keep swinging the bat well or the Brewers might find a younger version of Inglett before the end of 2010.
#21 (NR) - Zach Braddock (LHP): has a fair amount of fuggly stats so far in 2010 going 1-1 in 15 appearances over 13 innings for a 5.54 ERA. I know all the stats that I cited were mediocre at best but Braddock leads the team with a 14.54 strikeouts per 9 innings. It is just a hunch, but Braddock looks like a major league reliever in the making thanks to his knack for striking hitters out.
#20 (21) - Carlos Villanueva (RHP): decent numbers, but again a guy that doesn't really have a specific role for the Brewers. Villanueva made 38 appearances pitching only 39 innings and amassing a 4.62 ERA. Villanueva better pick things up or he could be on his way out of Milwaukee soon.
#19 (22) - Jim Edmonds (CF): has been surprisingly effective for the Brewers. As I said in my initial rankings, it hurts me as a life-long Brewer fan to root for Edmonds but he has handled things very professionally in Milwaukee and produced fairly well on the field after a year out of baseball too boot.
#18 (18) - Manny Parra (LHP): much like Villanueva, since Parra has been inconsistent the Brewers have shuttled Parra between the bullpen and the starting rotation. Parra looks like he has the stuff to be an effective middle of the rotations starter but his performance so far this year has been less than impressive going 2-5 in 24 appearances (7 starts) over 59 innings leading to a 4.12 ERA. With the way things are going, Parra looks like a middle reliever in the making.
#17 (12) - Dave Bush (RHP): is a mere 3-6 over 16 appearances (15 starts) pitching 83.1 innings and amassing a 4.43 ERA. Bush has never looked the same since taking a line drive off his right arm last season. Bush can be a free agent for the first time in his career after the 2010 season so Bush needs to regain his pre-injury form if he wants a big payday in the off-season.
#16 (11) - Carlos Gomez (CF): guys like Inglett and Counsell would kill to have the talent that Gomez has but Gomez continues to sqaunder that talent with his subpar play on the field. In 50 games Gomez has 179 at-bats but is hitting a mere .235, which is the lowest batting average of any regular play field player on the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers.
#15 (8) - Todd Coffey (RHP): is 2-2 in 30 appearances over 27.1 innings, amassing a 4.28 ERA. The aforementioned numbers show that Coffey has sputtered a little bit in 2010 after being the primary set-up man for now-former closer Trevor Hoffman in 2009. Coffey is earning just over $2 million this year and has one more year of salary arbitration. If Coffey wants to pitch in Milwaukee in 2011 he will have to improve in the second half of 2011.
#14 (13) - Craig Counsell (UTIL): is invaluable because he is able to play anywhere in the infield besides first base. In 54 games Counsell has 117 at-bats but is only hitting .256. It seems cliché but Counsell is on the team for leadership more than production at this point. With a $2.1 million salary it feels like a lot to spend on leadership, but Counsell is showing the young studs another cliché "how to play the game the right way" and it is worth every penny. Trust me, if anyone is going to get through to Gomez it is Counsell.
#13 (17) - Chris Narveson (LHP): is 7-4 in 21 appearances (12 starts) over 78.1 innings while amassing a 5.17 ERA. Narveson has gotten great run support in his starts, which somewhat minimizes his 7-4 record. I know it is early in Narveson's young career but he looks like a young version of Chris Capuano, and I am not talking about the All-Star version of Capuano.
#12 (NR) - Jonathan Lucroy (C): 73 at-bats over 19 games is hardly a career but Lucroy is acquitting himself well as the starting catcher in Milwaukee. I voiced my displeasure with Gregg Zaun being the Brewers' starting catcher because of his advanced age. I hate to say it Doug Melvin, but I was right. Predictably Zaun got hurt. What could not have been predicted is who would step in. For the last few years Angel Salome was the Brewers’ top catching prospect but he recently requested to change positions to outfield. That makes two catching prospects (Angel Salome and Brett Lawrie) that have changed positions leaving the Brewers farm system lacking quality catching prospects. As a result it is Lucroy or bust for 2010.
#11 (4) - Trevor Hoffman (RHP): oh how the mighty have fallen. Hoffman entered 2010 looking to add to his all-time major league save record. Unfortunately in 25 appearances in 2010 Hoffman has gone 2-4 while surrendering a staggering 7 home runs in 24 innings leading to a bloated 8.25 ERA. Despite struggling on the field, Hoffman still goes about his business like a professional on a daily basis, which provides a great example for the young pitching staff. Hoffman's off-field work cannot be questioned. It looks like father time finally caught up to Hoffman on the field though.
#10 (10) - Alcides Escobar (SS): is half way through his first major league season after taking over for former all-star shortstop J.J. Hardy. Escobar is on the roster more for his glove than his bat so the Brewers are willing to deal with his .241 batting average as long as he still continues to flash the leather. Plus, Escobar is only a rookie so he will undoubtedly improvement at the plate.
#9 (6) - Randy Wolf (LHP): is a mere 5-7 over 16 starts eating up only 97 innings and amassing a pedestrian 4.92 ERA. This should come as no surprise though since Wolf was moving from a pitcher friendly park (Dodger Stadium) to a hitter friendly park (Miller Park). In fairness Wolf has owned up to his struggles but he does have $30 million reasons to own up to it though. Wolf needs to pick it up in the second half of 2010 so that he doesn't prove my proclamation correct that he is the left-handed Jeff Suppan.
#8 (5) - Casey McGehee (3B): with a year and half as the starting 3rd baseman for the Brewers under his belt Chicago Cubs general manager Jim Hendry must be kicking themselves for letting McGehee go. McGehee is only earning $427,500 this year and cannot become a free agent till after 2014. On the flip side, current Cubs 3rd baseman Aramis Ramirez is schedule to earn $16.75 million in 2010, has a $14.6 million player option in 2011 that he will no doubt pick-up, and a $16 million club option (with a $2 million buyout) in 2012. That means if the Cubs thought long-term they could have kept McGehee in the fold to take over at third base half way through 2011. Instead the Brewers are reaping the benefits, thank you very much Jim Hendry.
#7 (NR) - Kameron Loe (RHP): is taking over the primary set-up role with ease. Loe is 0-0 in 13 appearances over 16.2 innings with a minuscule .54 ERA. It is delusional to think that Loe can continue to pitch that well but with bullpen mainstays like Coffey and Hawkins faltering or on the disabled list, Loe has been the perfect set-up man for new closer John Axford.
#6 (7) - Rickie Weeks (2B): has 13 home runs this year, which is 3rd most on the team and slightly ahead of sluggers like Braun (11) and McGehee (12). Unfortunately Weeks is a lead off hitter that is only hitting .274 with an on base percentage of .373. Weeks has one more year of salary arbitration before he becomes a free agent after the 2011 season. That means a big second half of 2010 will likely net Weeks a healthy contract extension despite his injury history.
#5 (9) - Corey Hart (RF): after winning his salary arbitration case, Hart is earning $4.8 million this year. Hart is backing up the arbitration win much to chigrin of Brewers fans. Hart is leading the 2010 Brewers is home runs (18) and slugging percentage (.571). 2011 is Hart's last salary arbitration year before he becomes a free agent so the second half of 2010 will go a long way to determining Hart's future in Milwaukee. Much like Weeks, Hart needs to continue to improve on those power numbers if he wants an extension before the end of 2011.
#4 (NR) - John Axford (RHP): is 3-1 with 8 saves in 18 appearances over 21 innings amassing a 3.00 ERA. In my 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Spring Training Preview I grouped players by position. Within each position group I put them in one of three categories: guaranteed, borderline, and long-shots to make the opening day 25-man roster. Both Loe and Axford were long-shots to make the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster. Luckily Loe and Axford have produced despite the Brewers having low expectations for both because without them the Brewers bullpen would be in shambles.
#3 (2) Prince Fielder (1B): of course Fielder is having somewhat of a down year by his standards when the Brewers are looking to trade him. That means it is going to be a slow march towards the 2011 off-season when Fielder is scheduled to become a free agent. Fielder is earning $11 million in 2010 and will get a sizable raise through salary arbitration in 2011. Any team that acquires Fielder from now till the 2011 trade deadline will be merely renting Fielder because Fielder's agent is the often-loathed mega-agent Scott Boras. Let me reiterate the stance that I have had for over a year on what to do with Fielder. Keep Fielder until after 2011. If Fielder decides not to resign with the Brewers, take the compensatory picks. There is a slim chance that someone will offer the Brewers young pitching for Fielder, but I am not holding out too much hope. Young pitching trumps young hitting in the post-steroids era especially when the young hitter in question is overweight, short for his position, and represented by Scott Boras.
#2 (3) Yovani Gallardo (RHP): signed a hefty contract extension at the start of the season. Gallardo signed a five-year, $30.1 million contract with a $13 million club option ($.6 million buyout) that could make it a six-year contract. Gallardo can void the 6th year if he accumulates 6 points between 2010 and 2014. Gallardo earns 5 points for winning a Cy Young Award, 3 points for finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting, and 1 point for finishing 3rd the Cy Young voting. I like the contract in general but have two small critiques of the contract. One, Gallardo missed most of 2008 with a torn ACL on a freak collision at Wrigley Field so the Brewers hopefully factored that into their long-term plans for dealing with Gallardo. Two, I dislike that it is so back-loaded. I understand inflation, but Gallardo deserves more money in 2010 and less money in 2014. If I were in charge of the Brewers (consider this part of my resume), I would have evened out the contract to make it go up very little on an annual basis for team salary predictability. Gallardo is justifying the extension by going 8-3 over 17 starts eating up 109.0 innings while amassing a 2.56 ERA and nearly doubling all other Brewer starters with 120 strikeouts. For how horrible the Brewers have drafted pitchers over the last decade, Gallardo is the Hope Diamond amongst cubic zirconia in the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers starting rotation.
#1 (1) Ryan Braun (LF): it can't be reiterated enough how sweet of a deal Doug Melvin got when he extended Ryan Braun early on in his career. Take a look back at one of my first Sunday Funday posts where I dissected Braun's contract from almost every angle imaginable. If the Brewers do in fact lose Fielder soon, Braun is going to struggle unless Hart or McGehee go on a tear. Either way, Braun has been the Brewers most consistent player this year.
I will have reactions to what players Doug Melvin calls up in September when the rosters expand as well as my final player ranking at the end of the 2010 season. Check back for more Milwaukee Brewers coverage in the coming weeks when it is warranted.
The 6 new faces the Brewers added to the current 25-man roster are a nice blend of young pitchers (John Axford, Zach Braddock, and Kameron Loe), old pitchers (Chris Capuano and David Riske), and a potential franchise catcher (Jonathan Lucroy). The aforementioned 6 new faces will have an "NR" in parenthesis next to their name, while the other 19 players will have my initial 2010 ranking in parenthesis. As usual I ranked the player based on age, depth at each position, compensation, and clubhouse impact. Without further ado, here are the updated rankings:
#25 (NR) - David Riske (RHP): I don't put much stock in Riske's 2.70 ERA because he has only made 7 appearances and pitched 6.2 innings. I know this seems petty, but why did Doug Melvin sign a reliever named Riske?
#24 (20) - George Kottaras (C): in 35 games Kottaras has amassed a paltry .208 average over 106 at-bats. Kottaras will get his chances in the second half of 2010, which will be an audition for the back-up catcher spot for 2011 because recently promoted Jonathan Lucroy looks like the catcher of the future in Milwaukee after only 19 games.
#23 (NR) - Chris Capuano (LHP): much like Riske, I feel for Capuano on a personal level for all the injuries that he has gone through. That said, Capuano is a professional baseball player and injuries are part of the game. Capuano is 0-1 in 4 appearances (1 start) over 7 innings for a 5.14 ERA so he is going to have to produce soon or it might be time for the Brewers and Capuano to part ways for good.
#22 (25) - Joe Inglett (UTIL): is the Swiss army knife of field players for the Brewers because Inglett is able to play anywhere in the field besides catcher and first base. Inglett is batting a team-high .340 but take that with a grain of salt because it is only over 53 at-bats. Inglett is on the roster for flexibility as a pinch hitter and a spot starter so he better keep swinging the bat well or the Brewers might find a younger version of Inglett before the end of 2010.
#21 (NR) - Zach Braddock (LHP): has a fair amount of fuggly stats so far in 2010 going 1-1 in 15 appearances over 13 innings for a 5.54 ERA. I know all the stats that I cited were mediocre at best but Braddock leads the team with a 14.54 strikeouts per 9 innings. It is just a hunch, but Braddock looks like a major league reliever in the making thanks to his knack for striking hitters out.
#20 (21) - Carlos Villanueva (RHP): decent numbers, but again a guy that doesn't really have a specific role for the Brewers. Villanueva made 38 appearances pitching only 39 innings and amassing a 4.62 ERA. Villanueva better pick things up or he could be on his way out of Milwaukee soon.
#19 (22) - Jim Edmonds (CF): has been surprisingly effective for the Brewers. As I said in my initial rankings, it hurts me as a life-long Brewer fan to root for Edmonds but he has handled things very professionally in Milwaukee and produced fairly well on the field after a year out of baseball too boot.
#18 (18) - Manny Parra (LHP): much like Villanueva, since Parra has been inconsistent the Brewers have shuttled Parra between the bullpen and the starting rotation. Parra looks like he has the stuff to be an effective middle of the rotations starter but his performance so far this year has been less than impressive going 2-5 in 24 appearances (7 starts) over 59 innings leading to a 4.12 ERA. With the way things are going, Parra looks like a middle reliever in the making.
#17 (12) - Dave Bush (RHP): is a mere 3-6 over 16 appearances (15 starts) pitching 83.1 innings and amassing a 4.43 ERA. Bush has never looked the same since taking a line drive off his right arm last season. Bush can be a free agent for the first time in his career after the 2010 season so Bush needs to regain his pre-injury form if he wants a big payday in the off-season.
#16 (11) - Carlos Gomez (CF): guys like Inglett and Counsell would kill to have the talent that Gomez has but Gomez continues to sqaunder that talent with his subpar play on the field. In 50 games Gomez has 179 at-bats but is hitting a mere .235, which is the lowest batting average of any regular play field player on the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers.
#15 (8) - Todd Coffey (RHP): is 2-2 in 30 appearances over 27.1 innings, amassing a 4.28 ERA. The aforementioned numbers show that Coffey has sputtered a little bit in 2010 after being the primary set-up man for now-former closer Trevor Hoffman in 2009. Coffey is earning just over $2 million this year and has one more year of salary arbitration. If Coffey wants to pitch in Milwaukee in 2011 he will have to improve in the second half of 2011.
#14 (13) - Craig Counsell (UTIL): is invaluable because he is able to play anywhere in the infield besides first base. In 54 games Counsell has 117 at-bats but is only hitting .256. It seems cliché but Counsell is on the team for leadership more than production at this point. With a $2.1 million salary it feels like a lot to spend on leadership, but Counsell is showing the young studs another cliché "how to play the game the right way" and it is worth every penny. Trust me, if anyone is going to get through to Gomez it is Counsell.
#13 (17) - Chris Narveson (LHP): is 7-4 in 21 appearances (12 starts) over 78.1 innings while amassing a 5.17 ERA. Narveson has gotten great run support in his starts, which somewhat minimizes his 7-4 record. I know it is early in Narveson's young career but he looks like a young version of Chris Capuano, and I am not talking about the All-Star version of Capuano.
#12 (NR) - Jonathan Lucroy (C): 73 at-bats over 19 games is hardly a career but Lucroy is acquitting himself well as the starting catcher in Milwaukee. I voiced my displeasure with Gregg Zaun being the Brewers' starting catcher because of his advanced age. I hate to say it Doug Melvin, but I was right. Predictably Zaun got hurt. What could not have been predicted is who would step in. For the last few years Angel Salome was the Brewers’ top catching prospect but he recently requested to change positions to outfield. That makes two catching prospects (Angel Salome and Brett Lawrie) that have changed positions leaving the Brewers farm system lacking quality catching prospects. As a result it is Lucroy or bust for 2010.
#11 (4) - Trevor Hoffman (RHP): oh how the mighty have fallen. Hoffman entered 2010 looking to add to his all-time major league save record. Unfortunately in 25 appearances in 2010 Hoffman has gone 2-4 while surrendering a staggering 7 home runs in 24 innings leading to a bloated 8.25 ERA. Despite struggling on the field, Hoffman still goes about his business like a professional on a daily basis, which provides a great example for the young pitching staff. Hoffman's off-field work cannot be questioned. It looks like father time finally caught up to Hoffman on the field though.
#10 (10) - Alcides Escobar (SS): is half way through his first major league season after taking over for former all-star shortstop J.J. Hardy. Escobar is on the roster more for his glove than his bat so the Brewers are willing to deal with his .241 batting average as long as he still continues to flash the leather. Plus, Escobar is only a rookie so he will undoubtedly improvement at the plate.
#9 (6) - Randy Wolf (LHP): is a mere 5-7 over 16 starts eating up only 97 innings and amassing a pedestrian 4.92 ERA. This should come as no surprise though since Wolf was moving from a pitcher friendly park (Dodger Stadium) to a hitter friendly park (Miller Park). In fairness Wolf has owned up to his struggles but he does have $30 million reasons to own up to it though. Wolf needs to pick it up in the second half of 2010 so that he doesn't prove my proclamation correct that he is the left-handed Jeff Suppan.
#8 (5) - Casey McGehee (3B): with a year and half as the starting 3rd baseman for the Brewers under his belt Chicago Cubs general manager Jim Hendry must be kicking themselves for letting McGehee go. McGehee is only earning $427,500 this year and cannot become a free agent till after 2014. On the flip side, current Cubs 3rd baseman Aramis Ramirez is schedule to earn $16.75 million in 2010, has a $14.6 million player option in 2011 that he will no doubt pick-up, and a $16 million club option (with a $2 million buyout) in 2012. That means if the Cubs thought long-term they could have kept McGehee in the fold to take over at third base half way through 2011. Instead the Brewers are reaping the benefits, thank you very much Jim Hendry.
#7 (NR) - Kameron Loe (RHP): is taking over the primary set-up role with ease. Loe is 0-0 in 13 appearances over 16.2 innings with a minuscule .54 ERA. It is delusional to think that Loe can continue to pitch that well but with bullpen mainstays like Coffey and Hawkins faltering or on the disabled list, Loe has been the perfect set-up man for new closer John Axford.
#6 (7) - Rickie Weeks (2B): has 13 home runs this year, which is 3rd most on the team and slightly ahead of sluggers like Braun (11) and McGehee (12). Unfortunately Weeks is a lead off hitter that is only hitting .274 with an on base percentage of .373. Weeks has one more year of salary arbitration before he becomes a free agent after the 2011 season. That means a big second half of 2010 will likely net Weeks a healthy contract extension despite his injury history.
#5 (9) - Corey Hart (RF): after winning his salary arbitration case, Hart is earning $4.8 million this year. Hart is backing up the arbitration win much to chigrin of Brewers fans. Hart is leading the 2010 Brewers is home runs (18) and slugging percentage (.571). 2011 is Hart's last salary arbitration year before he becomes a free agent so the second half of 2010 will go a long way to determining Hart's future in Milwaukee. Much like Weeks, Hart needs to continue to improve on those power numbers if he wants an extension before the end of 2011.
#4 (NR) - John Axford (RHP): is 3-1 with 8 saves in 18 appearances over 21 innings amassing a 3.00 ERA. In my 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Spring Training Preview I grouped players by position. Within each position group I put them in one of three categories: guaranteed, borderline, and long-shots to make the opening day 25-man roster. Both Loe and Axford were long-shots to make the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster. Luckily Loe and Axford have produced despite the Brewers having low expectations for both because without them the Brewers bullpen would be in shambles.
#3 (2) Prince Fielder (1B): of course Fielder is having somewhat of a down year by his standards when the Brewers are looking to trade him. That means it is going to be a slow march towards the 2011 off-season when Fielder is scheduled to become a free agent. Fielder is earning $11 million in 2010 and will get a sizable raise through salary arbitration in 2011. Any team that acquires Fielder from now till the 2011 trade deadline will be merely renting Fielder because Fielder's agent is the often-loathed mega-agent Scott Boras. Let me reiterate the stance that I have had for over a year on what to do with Fielder. Keep Fielder until after 2011. If Fielder decides not to resign with the Brewers, take the compensatory picks. There is a slim chance that someone will offer the Brewers young pitching for Fielder, but I am not holding out too much hope. Young pitching trumps young hitting in the post-steroids era especially when the young hitter in question is overweight, short for his position, and represented by Scott Boras.
#2 (3) Yovani Gallardo (RHP): signed a hefty contract extension at the start of the season. Gallardo signed a five-year, $30.1 million contract with a $13 million club option ($.6 million buyout) that could make it a six-year contract. Gallardo can void the 6th year if he accumulates 6 points between 2010 and 2014. Gallardo earns 5 points for winning a Cy Young Award, 3 points for finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting, and 1 point for finishing 3rd the Cy Young voting. I like the contract in general but have two small critiques of the contract. One, Gallardo missed most of 2008 with a torn ACL on a freak collision at Wrigley Field so the Brewers hopefully factored that into their long-term plans for dealing with Gallardo. Two, I dislike that it is so back-loaded. I understand inflation, but Gallardo deserves more money in 2010 and less money in 2014. If I were in charge of the Brewers (consider this part of my resume), I would have evened out the contract to make it go up very little on an annual basis for team salary predictability. Gallardo is justifying the extension by going 8-3 over 17 starts eating up 109.0 innings while amassing a 2.56 ERA and nearly doubling all other Brewer starters with 120 strikeouts. For how horrible the Brewers have drafted pitchers over the last decade, Gallardo is the Hope Diamond amongst cubic zirconia in the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers starting rotation.
#1 (1) Ryan Braun (LF): it can't be reiterated enough how sweet of a deal Doug Melvin got when he extended Ryan Braun early on in his career. Take a look back at one of my first Sunday Funday posts where I dissected Braun's contract from almost every angle imaginable. If the Brewers do in fact lose Fielder soon, Braun is going to struggle unless Hart or McGehee go on a tear. Either way, Braun has been the Brewers most consistent player this year.
I will have reactions to what players Doug Melvin calls up in September when the rosters expand as well as my final player ranking at the end of the 2010 season. Check back for more Milwaukee Brewers coverage in the coming weeks when it is warranted.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Ranking 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster
Congrats to these 25 guys (and 4 guys on the disabled list) that made the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster...it is truly a Sunday Funday for them:
Pitchers (12): Dave Bush (R), Todd Coffey (R), Doug Davis (L), Yovani Gallardo (R), LaTroy Hawkins (R), Trevor Hoffman (R), Chris Narveson (L), Manny Parra (L), Mitch Stetter (L), Claudio Vargas (R), Carlos Villanueva (R), and Randy Wolf (L).
Catchers (2): George Kottaras and Gregg Zaun.
Infielders (6): Craig Counsell (UTIL), Alcides Escobar (SS), Prince Fielder (1B), Joe Inglett (UTIL), Casey McGehee (3B), and Rickie Weeks (2B).
Outfielders (5): Ryan Braun (LF), Jim Edmonds (CF), Jody Gerut (UTIL), Carlos Gomez (CF), and Corey Hart (RF).
Disabled List: Jeff Suppan (RHP), David Riske (RHP), Josh Butler (RHP), and Mat Gamel (3B).
Take a look back at my predictions of which players would make the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster. Keep in mind I made my predictions at the start of spring training on February 24, 2010 and I was still 23 of 24 (since Jeff Suppan started the season on the DL). I predicted the Brewers would keep Scott Schoeneweis (LHP) instead of Chris Narveson (LHP). The Brewers made the right decision keeping Narveson, he was much more impressive than Schoeneweis in spring training and rightly deserved to make the team ahead of Schoeneweis.
With the niceties out of the way, here is how I rank the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster:
#25) Joe Inglett (UTIL): much like Jose Canseco, minus the steroids and antics, I feel vindicated that Doug Melvin kept Inglett on the 25-man opening day roster. If you look back at my pre-spring training predictions from February 24, 2010 I called that Inglett would make the roster. As you can see, I don't think Inglett brings much to the table since I ranked him 25th out of 25 guys...I am just happy my prediction came true.
#24) Claudio Vargas (RHP): after coming over from the L.A. Dodgers in 2009, Vargas was almost unhittable: 1.78 ERA in 28 appearances over 30.1 innings. That performance lead the Brewers to offer Vargas a one-year, $900,000 contract but the Brewers have a number of right-handed arms in the bullpen that are better than Vargas so he better perform if he wants to stay in Milwaukee for the entire season.
#23) Jody Gerut (OF): it still blows me away that Doug Melvin traded Tony Gwynn Jr. (27 years old) to the San Diego Padres for Gerut (32 years old). Melvin said he traded Tony Gwynn Jr. because of his offensive deficiencies but Gerut hit .236 last year for the Brewers while Gwynn hit .270 for the Padres.
#22) Jim Edmonds (CF): it pains me (and my buddy Gaber even more) that Edmonds is playing for the Brewers. The fact that the Brewers have to rely on a 40 year old guy that didn't even play baseball last year does not bode well for the season...or the three guys ranked below Edmonds.
#21) Carlos Villanueva (RHP): is the Bill Hall of pitchers. The Brewers cannot decide where to pitch Villanueva (starter, long relief, set-up man, or closer) and it has adversely impacted his progression. Much like Stetter, Villanueva is one of the only relievers with minor league options so he might have a cup of coffee in Triple-A depending on how he starts the season.
#20) George Kottaras (C): may be the quietest pick-up by Melvin in the off-season could loom large since Zaun turns 75 this season. Luckily for the Brewers, Boston waived Kottaras in favor of bringing back the carcus of Jason Varitek.
#19) Mitch Stetter (LHP): has been an effective situational reliever against left-handed hitters but will have to show he can get left and right-handed hitters if he wants to stay in the majors. Stetter could get sent down to Triple-A when the injury bug hits the Brewers because he still has minor league options.
#18) Manny Parra (LHP): similar to Rickie Weeks, its time for Parra to produce. Every year Parra has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy but every year he never backs up that potential with actual production. If Parra had minor league options he would have started the season in Triple-A, unfortunately the Brewers don't have that luxury.
#17) Chris Narveson (LHP): not too sure if this is more about Narveson being out of minor league options or the Brewers thinking he can be effective out of the pen or as a starter once someone goes on the disabled list?
#16) LaTroy Hawkins (RHP): similar to my Suppan/Wolf comparison above...Hawkins reminds me of Dave Riske...oh dang.
#15) Gregg Zaun (C): not too sure why Melvin decided to "save money" on the catcher position by bringing in Zaun, who turns 39 this season, to start for the first time in his career. Why not bring back Kendall even if it costs you $1 million more than Zaun? It’s as if Melvin bought a bunch of expensive cars (Wolf, Hawkins, and Davis) but balked at filling it with premium unleaded and filled it with regular unleaded instead.
#14) Doug Davis (LHP): I feel horrible for Doug Davis and his family that Doug has battled serious health problems the last few years. That said, Doug Melvin knew about Davis' health issues, so why did he offer Davis a contract? Plus, Davis is possibly the slowest, most deliberate pitcher in baseball which means I will skip watching any of his starts live.
#13) Craig Counsell (UTIL): despite turning 40 this season, the Brewers had to bring Counsell back after he hit .285 in 130 games over 404 at-bats in 2009. Counsell filled in admirably at second base after Weeks was predictably lost for the season. Counsell reminds me of Richard Alpert from Lost...he doesn't age.
#12) Dave Bush (RHP): had his 2009 season cut short when he took a line drive off his pitching elbow. Bush looks fully recovered and should become a consistent middle of the rotation guy in a left-hand dominated starting rotation.
#11) Carlos Gomez (CF): is the player the Brewers got from the Minnesota Twins for J.J. Hardy. Gomez was the key player the Minnesota Twins received from the New York Mets for Johan Santana but has yet to produce consistently in the majors. Much like Rickie Weeks, Gomez has the potential to be a dynamic player but has not capitalized on that potential.
#10) Alcides Escobar (SS): the Brewers traded former fan favorite J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins to make way for Escobar. There is no question that Escobar is one of the best defensive shortstops in MLB, the question is whether Escobar can produce on offense?
#9) Corey Hart (RF): some guys get by on talent despite being seemingly devoid of common sense...Corey Hart is that guy. Case and point, why did Hart wait until the start of spring training to correct his vision problems? Hart somehow won his salary arbitration hearing so unless he performs, Brewers fans will make him the #2 whipping boy behind Jeff Suppan.
#8) Todd Coffey (RHP): has been a bullpen workhorse for the Brewers since Doug Melvin claimed Coffey off waivers from Cincinnati in 2008. If I were Ken Macha, Coffey would be my set-up guy for closer Trevor Hoffman.
#7) Rickie Weeks (2B): at some point Weeks has to produce on the major league level like he did in college. Weeks has an amazing skill set but in five major league seasons he has only played more than 100 games twice.
#6) Randy Wolf (LHP): I hope I am wrong but I am on record as saying that Wolf is the left-handed Jeff Suppan. Wolf is owed a little less than $30 million over the next three seasons and the Brewers do not even view Wolf as a #1 starter. Wolf is Exhibit A for how costly it can be if you do not develop pitching through the farm system.
#5) Casey McGehee (3B): was not even penciled in to start at 3rd base for the Brewers and still ended up finishing 5th in the National League Rookie of the Year Award. Will 2009 be a flash in the pan for McGehee or did the Brewers finally identify an everyday 3rd basemen?
#4) Trevor Hoffman (RHP): with the lack of pitching depth in the Brewers' farm system, every Brewer fan better hope that old age does not catch up with Hoffman this season.
#3) Yovani Gallardo (RHP): the Brewers have struggled mightily to draft pitchers but Gallardo is the exception to those struggles. Gallardo is a legitimate #1 starter in the making and Doug Melvin should lock him up long-term as long as it is not a Teddy Higuera type contract. I actually think Higuera and his progeny are still under contract with the Brewers through 2050.
#2) Prince Fielder (1B): the first half of 2010 will determine where Prince plays the next 8 seasons of his career. The two variables that will intersect throughout the first half of the season are Prince's production and the Brewers' record. If the Brewers fall out of playoff contention by the All-Star break, Doug Melvin will be forced to trade Prince since Prince's value will only diminish the closer he gets to free agency at the end of the 2011 season.
#1) Ryan Braun (LF): in case you missed it, check out my Sunday Funday - Ryan Braun's Contract from last week to see how grossly underpaid Braun is for being the best player on the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers. When the Brewers moved Braun from 3rd base to left field, Braun took his offense to another level. I know it is early in Braun's career but if he continues on his current trajectory, Braun has a chance to go down as one of the all-time Brewer greats.
If you have read this far I want to thank you for supporting my rambling thoughts. Check back throughout the season for updates to the rankings because the Brewers have not played a meaningful baseball game in 2010 yet so the rankings will probably look drastically different as the season goes on.
Pitchers (12): Dave Bush (R), Todd Coffey (R), Doug Davis (L), Yovani Gallardo (R), LaTroy Hawkins (R), Trevor Hoffman (R), Chris Narveson (L), Manny Parra (L), Mitch Stetter (L), Claudio Vargas (R), Carlos Villanueva (R), and Randy Wolf (L).
Catchers (2): George Kottaras and Gregg Zaun.
Infielders (6): Craig Counsell (UTIL), Alcides Escobar (SS), Prince Fielder (1B), Joe Inglett (UTIL), Casey McGehee (3B), and Rickie Weeks (2B).
Outfielders (5): Ryan Braun (LF), Jim Edmonds (CF), Jody Gerut (UTIL), Carlos Gomez (CF), and Corey Hart (RF).
Disabled List: Jeff Suppan (RHP), David Riske (RHP), Josh Butler (RHP), and Mat Gamel (3B).
Take a look back at my predictions of which players would make the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster. Keep in mind I made my predictions at the start of spring training on February 24, 2010 and I was still 23 of 24 (since Jeff Suppan started the season on the DL). I predicted the Brewers would keep Scott Schoeneweis (LHP) instead of Chris Narveson (LHP). The Brewers made the right decision keeping Narveson, he was much more impressive than Schoeneweis in spring training and rightly deserved to make the team ahead of Schoeneweis.
With the niceties out of the way, here is how I rank the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster:
#25) Joe Inglett (UTIL): much like Jose Canseco, minus the steroids and antics, I feel vindicated that Doug Melvin kept Inglett on the 25-man opening day roster. If you look back at my pre-spring training predictions from February 24, 2010 I called that Inglett would make the roster. As you can see, I don't think Inglett brings much to the table since I ranked him 25th out of 25 guys...I am just happy my prediction came true.
#24) Claudio Vargas (RHP): after coming over from the L.A. Dodgers in 2009, Vargas was almost unhittable: 1.78 ERA in 28 appearances over 30.1 innings. That performance lead the Brewers to offer Vargas a one-year, $900,000 contract but the Brewers have a number of right-handed arms in the bullpen that are better than Vargas so he better perform if he wants to stay in Milwaukee for the entire season.
#23) Jody Gerut (OF): it still blows me away that Doug Melvin traded Tony Gwynn Jr. (27 years old) to the San Diego Padres for Gerut (32 years old). Melvin said he traded Tony Gwynn Jr. because of his offensive deficiencies but Gerut hit .236 last year for the Brewers while Gwynn hit .270 for the Padres.
#22) Jim Edmonds (CF): it pains me (and my buddy Gaber even more) that Edmonds is playing for the Brewers. The fact that the Brewers have to rely on a 40 year old guy that didn't even play baseball last year does not bode well for the season...or the three guys ranked below Edmonds.
#21) Carlos Villanueva (RHP): is the Bill Hall of pitchers. The Brewers cannot decide where to pitch Villanueva (starter, long relief, set-up man, or closer) and it has adversely impacted his progression. Much like Stetter, Villanueva is one of the only relievers with minor league options so he might have a cup of coffee in Triple-A depending on how he starts the season.
#20) George Kottaras (C): may be the quietest pick-up by Melvin in the off-season could loom large since Zaun turns 75 this season. Luckily for the Brewers, Boston waived Kottaras in favor of bringing back the carcus of Jason Varitek.
#19) Mitch Stetter (LHP): has been an effective situational reliever against left-handed hitters but will have to show he can get left and right-handed hitters if he wants to stay in the majors. Stetter could get sent down to Triple-A when the injury bug hits the Brewers because he still has minor league options.
#18) Manny Parra (LHP): similar to Rickie Weeks, its time for Parra to produce. Every year Parra has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy but every year he never backs up that potential with actual production. If Parra had minor league options he would have started the season in Triple-A, unfortunately the Brewers don't have that luxury.
#17) Chris Narveson (LHP): not too sure if this is more about Narveson being out of minor league options or the Brewers thinking he can be effective out of the pen or as a starter once someone goes on the disabled list?
#16) LaTroy Hawkins (RHP): similar to my Suppan/Wolf comparison above...Hawkins reminds me of Dave Riske...oh dang.
#15) Gregg Zaun (C): not too sure why Melvin decided to "save money" on the catcher position by bringing in Zaun, who turns 39 this season, to start for the first time in his career. Why not bring back Kendall even if it costs you $1 million more than Zaun? It’s as if Melvin bought a bunch of expensive cars (Wolf, Hawkins, and Davis) but balked at filling it with premium unleaded and filled it with regular unleaded instead.
#14) Doug Davis (LHP): I feel horrible for Doug Davis and his family that Doug has battled serious health problems the last few years. That said, Doug Melvin knew about Davis' health issues, so why did he offer Davis a contract? Plus, Davis is possibly the slowest, most deliberate pitcher in baseball which means I will skip watching any of his starts live.
#13) Craig Counsell (UTIL): despite turning 40 this season, the Brewers had to bring Counsell back after he hit .285 in 130 games over 404 at-bats in 2009. Counsell filled in admirably at second base after Weeks was predictably lost for the season. Counsell reminds me of Richard Alpert from Lost...he doesn't age.
#12) Dave Bush (RHP): had his 2009 season cut short when he took a line drive off his pitching elbow. Bush looks fully recovered and should become a consistent middle of the rotation guy in a left-hand dominated starting rotation.
#11) Carlos Gomez (CF): is the player the Brewers got from the Minnesota Twins for J.J. Hardy. Gomez was the key player the Minnesota Twins received from the New York Mets for Johan Santana but has yet to produce consistently in the majors. Much like Rickie Weeks, Gomez has the potential to be a dynamic player but has not capitalized on that potential.
#10) Alcides Escobar (SS): the Brewers traded former fan favorite J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins to make way for Escobar. There is no question that Escobar is one of the best defensive shortstops in MLB, the question is whether Escobar can produce on offense?
#9) Corey Hart (RF): some guys get by on talent despite being seemingly devoid of common sense...Corey Hart is that guy. Case and point, why did Hart wait until the start of spring training to correct his vision problems? Hart somehow won his salary arbitration hearing so unless he performs, Brewers fans will make him the #2 whipping boy behind Jeff Suppan.
#8) Todd Coffey (RHP): has been a bullpen workhorse for the Brewers since Doug Melvin claimed Coffey off waivers from Cincinnati in 2008. If I were Ken Macha, Coffey would be my set-up guy for closer Trevor Hoffman.
#7) Rickie Weeks (2B): at some point Weeks has to produce on the major league level like he did in college. Weeks has an amazing skill set but in five major league seasons he has only played more than 100 games twice.
#6) Randy Wolf (LHP): I hope I am wrong but I am on record as saying that Wolf is the left-handed Jeff Suppan. Wolf is owed a little less than $30 million over the next three seasons and the Brewers do not even view Wolf as a #1 starter. Wolf is Exhibit A for how costly it can be if you do not develop pitching through the farm system.
#5) Casey McGehee (3B): was not even penciled in to start at 3rd base for the Brewers and still ended up finishing 5th in the National League Rookie of the Year Award. Will 2009 be a flash in the pan for McGehee or did the Brewers finally identify an everyday 3rd basemen?
#4) Trevor Hoffman (RHP): with the lack of pitching depth in the Brewers' farm system, every Brewer fan better hope that old age does not catch up with Hoffman this season.
#3) Yovani Gallardo (RHP): the Brewers have struggled mightily to draft pitchers but Gallardo is the exception to those struggles. Gallardo is a legitimate #1 starter in the making and Doug Melvin should lock him up long-term as long as it is not a Teddy Higuera type contract. I actually think Higuera and his progeny are still under contract with the Brewers through 2050.
#2) Prince Fielder (1B): the first half of 2010 will determine where Prince plays the next 8 seasons of his career. The two variables that will intersect throughout the first half of the season are Prince's production and the Brewers' record. If the Brewers fall out of playoff contention by the All-Star break, Doug Melvin will be forced to trade Prince since Prince's value will only diminish the closer he gets to free agency at the end of the 2011 season.
#1) Ryan Braun (LF): in case you missed it, check out my Sunday Funday - Ryan Braun's Contract from last week to see how grossly underpaid Braun is for being the best player on the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers. When the Brewers moved Braun from 3rd base to left field, Braun took his offense to another level. I know it is early in Braun's career but if he continues on his current trajectory, Braun has a chance to go down as one of the all-time Brewer greats.
If you have read this far I want to thank you for supporting my rambling thoughts. Check back throughout the season for updates to the rankings because the Brewers have not played a meaningful baseball game in 2010 yet so the rankings will probably look drastically different as the season goes on.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Sunday Funday - Ryan Braun's Contract
On May 15, 2008 the Milwaukee Brewers and Ryan Braun agreed to an 8-year, $45 million contract. At the time, Braun had only 600 career major league at-bats but Doug Melvin saw Braun as a franchise player which lead him to offer such a long-term contract. Braun's contract contained a modest $2.3 million signing bonus and these annual salaries:
- 2008: $455,000
- 2009: $745,000
- 2010: $1.3 million
- 2011: $4.3 million
- 2012: $6.3 million
- 2013: $8.8 million
- 2014: $10.3 million
- 2015: $12 million
Braun's contract is one of the most club friendly contracts in Milwaukee Brewers' history and will forever be known as the Anti-Jeff Supppan Contract. To put into perspective how little Braun is earning this season, he is the 16th highest paid player on the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers. There are not 15 better players in baseball right now, which shows you just how underpaid Braun is at this point. Just to drive the point home, I grouped the 15 Brewers players getting paid more than Braun into 3 categories and gave each a quick accompanying comment:
Understandable: these guys are worth what they are getting paid.
- Prince Fielder ($11 million) might be his last season in Milwaukee and might be the only player more valuable than Braun on the 2010 Brewers irrespective of salary.
- Trevor Hoffman ($7.5 million) may be the greatest closer of all-time, just his influence on the bullpen alone is practically worth his salary.
- Craig Counsell ($2.1 million) even if doesn't produce this year his salary can be chalked up to back pay for his impressive 2009 campaign.
- Todd Coffey ($2 million) not only has he been a reliable reliever since joining the Brewers, he runs so fast to the mound from the bullpen that he is a blur.
Questionable:
- Randy Wolf ($9.25 million with $4 million deferred) the three-year, $29 million contract he signed in the offseason makes me think of Jeff Suppan's contract...let's move on.
- Doug Davis ($4.25 million) the Brewers 9th left-handed starting pitcher.
- Dave Bush ($4.22 million) is coming off an injury riddled season. The Brewer had to bring him back but so far this spring Bush has done nothing to earn the 4th spot in the starting rotation.
- LaTroy Hawkins ($3.5 million) hopefully something other than wine gets better with age.
- Rickie Weeks ($2.75 million) 50/50 whether he will be healthy at the all-star break, when does his "potential" turn into results?
- Gregg Zaun ($1.9 million) if he hits half of what he did in the spring Doug Melvin will look much smarter than he should for letting Jason Kendall leave via free agency in the offseason.
Laughable:
- Jeff Suppan ($12.75 million) it took a lot but passed Jeffery Hammonds last season as the worst free agent signing in Milwaukee Brewers history.
- Bill Hall ($7.15 million) not only are the Brewers playing Hall to play for the Boston Red Sox, it isn't until 2013 that Braun will have an annual salary higher than Hall's 2010 salary...yikes.
- Corey Hart ($4.8 million) is fighting daily with Suppan for most hated Brewer.
- David Riske ($4.5 million) never a good idea to sign a relief pitcher with the last name Riske.
- Jody Gerut ($2 million) would much rather have Anthony Gwynn than Gerut.
Unfortunately for Braun, the Brewers cannot tear up his contract because starting next season his salary starts to jump in line with what he should be paid. Assuming Braun stays healthy over the life of his contract the Brewers will get roughly 5,000 at-bats for $45 million. The Brewers and Braun both took a huge gamble on May 15, 2008 and right now it looks like the Brewers won the lottery.
- 2008: $455,000
- 2009: $745,000
- 2010: $1.3 million
- 2011: $4.3 million
- 2012: $6.3 million
- 2013: $8.8 million
- 2014: $10.3 million
- 2015: $12 million
Braun's contract is one of the most club friendly contracts in Milwaukee Brewers' history and will forever be known as the Anti-Jeff Supppan Contract. To put into perspective how little Braun is earning this season, he is the 16th highest paid player on the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers. There are not 15 better players in baseball right now, which shows you just how underpaid Braun is at this point. Just to drive the point home, I grouped the 15 Brewers players getting paid more than Braun into 3 categories and gave each a quick accompanying comment:
Understandable: these guys are worth what they are getting paid.
- Prince Fielder ($11 million) might be his last season in Milwaukee and might be the only player more valuable than Braun on the 2010 Brewers irrespective of salary.
- Trevor Hoffman ($7.5 million) may be the greatest closer of all-time, just his influence on the bullpen alone is practically worth his salary.
- Craig Counsell ($2.1 million) even if doesn't produce this year his salary can be chalked up to back pay for his impressive 2009 campaign.
- Todd Coffey ($2 million) not only has he been a reliable reliever since joining the Brewers, he runs so fast to the mound from the bullpen that he is a blur.
Questionable:
- Randy Wolf ($9.25 million with $4 million deferred) the three-year, $29 million contract he signed in the offseason makes me think of Jeff Suppan's contract...let's move on.
- Doug Davis ($4.25 million) the Brewers 9th left-handed starting pitcher.
- Dave Bush ($4.22 million) is coming off an injury riddled season. The Brewer had to bring him back but so far this spring Bush has done nothing to earn the 4th spot in the starting rotation.
- LaTroy Hawkins ($3.5 million) hopefully something other than wine gets better with age.
- Rickie Weeks ($2.75 million) 50/50 whether he will be healthy at the all-star break, when does his "potential" turn into results?
- Gregg Zaun ($1.9 million) if he hits half of what he did in the spring Doug Melvin will look much smarter than he should for letting Jason Kendall leave via free agency in the offseason.
Laughable:
- Jeff Suppan ($12.75 million) it took a lot but passed Jeffery Hammonds last season as the worst free agent signing in Milwaukee Brewers history.
- Bill Hall ($7.15 million) not only are the Brewers playing Hall to play for the Boston Red Sox, it isn't until 2013 that Braun will have an annual salary higher than Hall's 2010 salary...yikes.
- Corey Hart ($4.8 million) is fighting daily with Suppan for most hated Brewer.
- David Riske ($4.5 million) never a good idea to sign a relief pitcher with the last name Riske.
- Jody Gerut ($2 million) would much rather have Anthony Gwynn than Gerut.
Unfortunately for Braun, the Brewers cannot tear up his contract because starting next season his salary starts to jump in line with what he should be paid. Assuming Braun stays healthy over the life of his contract the Brewers will get roughly 5,000 at-bats for $45 million. The Brewers and Braun both took a huge gamble on May 15, 2008 and right now it looks like the Brewers won the lottery.
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