As I discussed in my first installment of this seven-part series, Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson projects to have at least $35 million in cap space in 2014. That seems like a ton of money but at least $5 million of that will be spent on rookies drafted in the 2014 NFL Draft. Add in that the Packers have 20 players currently on injured reserve or The 53, (restricted and unrestricted), that are set to become free agents and all of a sudden that is not that much cap space. That means that every dollar under the salary cap must be used very wisely by Packers general manager Ted Thompson. Even if Thompson uses every salary cap dollar wisely, he might still need to create some cap space by cutting or restructuring contracts of players currently on The 53.
I broke down the five worst contracts on The 53. A number of guys off that list are strong candidates of becoming salary cap casualties before the start of the 2014 NFL season. Thompson strongly favors "pay-as-you go" contracts, which would allow him to walk away from some bad decisions he made in the last few years. The most glaring of those bad decisions involves A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones, the two current starting middle linebackers. Unless both guys are willing to take significant pay cuts, Thompson needs to replace both guys before the start of the 2015 NFL season.
I know Jones just finished the first year of the three-year, $11.25 million deal with $3 million guaranteed but I would start by cutting Jones after June 1st. Jones made $2.5 million in 2013 but his cap number jumps to $4 million next season and $4.75 million in 2015. Jones has $2 million guaranteed left on his current deal so if Thompson cuts Jones after June 1st, the Packers would have $2 million in dead salary cap space that they could spread over 2014 and 2015. It would be a rarity for Thompson to cut a guy less than a year after signing him to a three-year extension but given that Jones looks like just another guy on the field, I think it makes sense in this case.
With the plan for how to handle Jones, the next step is to sort out how to phase out Hawk. Let me be the 10,000th person to say that if Hawk was even a late first round pick that he would be celebrated as one of the best linebackers in franchise history. Since Hawk was the 5th pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, expectations overshadowed his accomplishments in his eight seasons in Green Bay.
Although Hawk put up some nice single-season stats in 2013: 118 tackles (2nd highest of his career), 5 sacks (highest of his career), 1 forced fumble (second highest of his career), and 1 interception (tied for highest of his career); it is the general lack of overall big plays that have undermined Hawk's career. Over eight NFL seasons Hawk only has 18.5 sacks, 3 fumble forced fumbles, 5 fumble recoveries, 9 interceptions, and zero defensive touchdowns.
Following the 2010 season Hawk used his leverage after becoming a free agent to get overpaid when Thompson signed Hawk to a ludicrous five-year, $33.75 million contract with $8 million guaranteed. There is no question that Hawk is durable but that is way too much money to pay a ho-hum middle linebacker. Luckily Thompson was able to renegotiated Hawk's deal last off-season, which involved Hawk taking a $7.5 million pay cut so he carries a salary cap charge of $5.1 million with $1.6 million guaranteed each of the next two seasons. If the Packers cut Hawk this off-season it would result in $3.2 million in dead money and only $1.6 million in dead money if the Packers cut Hawk before the 2015 season. Unless Jones and Hawk are willing to take pay cuts I would cut each of them after the June 1st over the next two years, Jones this year and Hawk next year.
Moving from middle linebacker to place kicker. Mason Crosby is coming off his most productive season in the NFL, which means he is a strong candidate for regression next year since many studies have shown that kicking accuracy, good or bad, does not tend to continue year-to-year. Crosby is signed through 2015 but restructured just the 2013 portion of his contract before the season to make it incentive-based. Crosby ultimately earned every dollar he was owed before the restructure. Crosby holds salary cap charges of $3.4 million in 2014 (8th highest in the NFL) and $3.55 million in 2015 (6th highest in the NFL). If the Packers cut Crosby this off-season it would result in $1.2 million in dead money and only $600,000 if the Packers cut Crosby before the 2015 season. I say draft a kicker late in the 2014 NFL Draft and cut Crosby after June 1st, which will give Thompson over $1 million more in cap space that he desperately needs.
Cornerback Tramon Williams is due $9.5 million with $2 million guaranteed in 2014. That is the final year of the four-year, $33 million with $10.9 million guaranteed that Williams signed in November of 2010 when he was in a contract year. Unless the Packers can get Williams to accept a pay cut, he will have the 8th highest average salary of all cornerbacks in the NFL, which is way too rich for Williams. I would be shocked if the Packers kept Williams past 2014 given all of their young depth at cornerback but keeping Williams in 2014 might preclude Thompson from offering cornerback Sam Shields the big money deal he earned this off-season. I would much rather have five years of Shields than one more year of Williams so unless Williams accepts a pay cut, I would treat Williams just like the Packers treated Charles Woodson last off-season.
Given all of the cuts I advised Thompson to make above, make sure to check back tomorrow for my initial thoughts on what Thompson should do in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
Showing posts with label Tramon Williams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tramon Williams. Show all posts
Monday, January 13, 2014
Monday, December 30, 2013
The 53 - Packers beat Bears to win the NFC North
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The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears met for the 188th time on Sunday, which is the most of any two teams in NFL history. That will continue to be a renewing NFL record unless the NFL makes radical changes to divisional alignment or scheduling. The official NFL game preview was cut before we knew whether Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was going to play. As it turns out, we knew by Thursday that the Packers were finally going have the services of Rodgers against the Bears for the first time since Week 9 when Rodgers was injured against the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football at Lambeau Field.The Packers were 5-2 before they lost Rodgers to a broken collarbone and went 2-5-1 using the services of three other quarterbacks (Seneca Wallace, Scot Tolzien, and Matt Flynn) in place of Rodgers. Somehow the Packers played just well enough to make their Week 17 game against the Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago meaningful. The winner of the game would win the NFC North, get the 4th seed in the NFC playoffs, and hosts a home playoff game next weekend. Here were the inactives for the Packers against the Bears: Chris Harper (WR, healthy scratch), Brad Jones (MLB, ankle), Clay Matthews (OLB, broken thumb), Jumal Rolle (CB, healthy scratch), Lane Taylor (G, healthy scratch), JC Tretter (G/C, healthy scratch), and C.J. Wilson (DE, healthy scratch).
As we we all know by now, the Packers beat the Bears in dramatic fashion. The person that likely suffered the most from the loss, besides the one Bears fan that plays for the Wisconsin Badgers football team, is Bears quarterback Jay Cutler. For his career, Cutler is now 1-9 (1-8 with the Bears & 0-1 with the Broncos) against the Packers. Both Cutler and their geriatric but possibly better backup quarterback Josh McCown are both set to become free agents this year. The sensible approach is the re-sign McCown to a short-term deal and draft a developmental quarterback in the 2014 NFL Draft. As a Packer fan that lives in Chicago, I hope the Bears resign Cutler so that even if he wins a couple games against the Packers over the next few years he will take up a ton of cap space while driving the entire city of Chicago nuts with his horrible body language that accompanies each of his interceptions.
The Packers and Bears played 186 times in the regular season, the Bears lead the series 92-88-6 but the Packers won nine of their last 11 games against Bears, including six in a row before losing to the Bears earlier this season at Lambeau. Soldier Field is turning into Lambeau Field South given that the Packers are now 23-19-0 all-time at Soldier Field winning their last four and five of the last six.
Despite playing 186 times in the regular season, the Packers and Bears only met twice in the playoff, both times in Chicago. The Bears won the first game 33–14 in 1941 at Wrigley Field. The Packers won the second game 21-14 at Soldier Field in the NFC Championship Game en route to winning Super Bowl XLV.
Their win over the Bears gave the Packers their 3rd consecutive NFC North title and fifth consecutive playoff appearance. The Packers are now 7-1 in regular season finales against Bears since 1934, wining their last five, with their most notable win in that streak being their 10-3 win at Lambeau in 2010 to start their run toward winning Super Bowl XLV. It is not just the Bears that have struggled against the Packers in regular season finales. The Packers won 18 of their last 20 regular season finales, including seven of their last eight against NFC North foes with their only lose coming in a meaningless game on the road against the Minnesota Vikings in 2012 that was quickly remedied by a playoff win the following week over the Vikings at Lambeau Field.
I am often critical of in-game decisions my Packers head coach McCarthy but give him, check that Rodgers credit, for being very impressive at the end of the regular season. The Packers are now 18-6 in regular season in December/January since 2009, which only trails the Patriots (21-4) and the Chargers (19-6). Taking a slightly longer timeline, McCarthy has a winning divisional record in all eight seasons in charge of the Packers. The Bill Belichick coached New England Patriots are the only other team in the NFL to match the Packers.
Without further adu, here are my updated player rankings following the Packers/Bears game:
| The 53 |
| 1. Aaron Rodgers (QB, LR 1) 2. Clay Matthews (OLB, LR 2) 3. Randall Cobb (WR, LR N/A) 4. Jordy Nelson (WR, LR 3) 5. Eddie Lacy (RB, LR 4) 6. Sam Shields (CB, LR 5) 7. Josh Sitton (G, LR 7) 8. T.J. Lang (G, LR 6) 9. James Jones (WR, LR 8) 10. Tramon Williams (CB, LR 12) 11. David Bakhtiari (T, LR 16) 12. Evan Dietrich-Smith (C, LR 10) 13. Morgan Burnett (S, LR 9) 14. Mike Daniels (DL, LR 11) 15. Micah Hyde (CB, LR 13) 16. B.J. Raji (DL, LR 14) 17. Jarrett Boykin (WR, LR 18) 18. Don Barclay (T, LR 15) 19. A.J. Hawk (MLB, LR 17) 20. James Starks (RB, LR 24) 21. Brad Jones (MLB, LR 19) 22. Datone Jones (DL, LR 21) 23. Nick Perry (OLB, LR 22) 24. Davon House (CB, LR 20) 25. Tim Masthay (P, LR 25) 26. Ryan Pickett (DL, LR 31) 27. Andrew Quarless (TE, LR 27) 28. John Kuhn (FB, LR 30) 29. Josh Boyd (DL, LR 26) 30. Mason Crosby (K, LR 34) 31. Mike Neal (DL/OLB, LR 28) 32. Jamari Lattimore (LB, LR 29) 33. Jarrett Bush (CB, LR 32) 34. Derek Sherrod (T, LR 33) 35. Jerel Worthy (DE, LR 37) 36. Sean Richardson (S, LR 36) 37. Brett Goode (LS, LR 35) 38. Andy Mulamba (LB, LR 38) 39. Matt Flynn (QB, LR 23) 40. M.D. Jennings (S, LR 39) 41. Ryan Taylor (TE, LR 40) 42. J.C. Tretter (C, LR 42) 43. C.J. Wilson (DL, LR 43) 44. Chris Banjo (S, LR 44) 45. Scott Tolzien (QB, LR 41) 46. Victor Aiyewa (LB, LR 45) 47. Jake Stoneburner (TE, LR 46) 48. Nate Palmer (LB, LR 50) 49. Lane Taylor (G, LR 47) 50. Chris Harper (WR, LR 48) 51. Marshall Newhouse (T, LR 49) 52. Kahlil Bell (RB, LR 51) 53. Jumal Rolle (CB, LR N/A) |
| Injured Reserve |
| 1. Jermichael Finley (TE) 2. Bryan Bulaga (T) 3. Casey Hayward (CB) 4. Johnny Jolly (DL) 5. DuJuan Harris (RB) 6. Jonathan Franklin (RB) 7. Brandon Bostick (TE) 8. Robert Francois (MLB) 9. Greg Van Roten (C/G) 10. Sam Barrington (LB) 11. Myles White (WR) 12. Seneca Wallace (QB) 13. James Nixon (CB) 14. Kevin Dorsey (WR) 15. Sederrik Cunningham (WR) |
| Cut |
| 1. Jeremy Ross (WR, Lions) 2. Jerron McMillian (S, free agent) 3. Michael Hill (RB, Buccaneers) |
3) Randall Cobb (WR, LR N/A): After breaking his leg on the road against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 6, the Packers placed Cobb on IR designated for return so he could have been added to The 53 for the Packers/Cowboys game. Unfortunately Cobb was still not healthy enough to play against the Cowboys or in the Packers/Steelers game. That meant that Cobb ultimately missed 10 games before the Packers activated him from the IR designated for return to The 53 yesterday. The Packers clearly benefited from having Cobb back in the lineup considering he caught two balls that both resulted in touchdowns. Although the second touchdown is the one that Packers fans will be talking about for many years to come, Cobb's first touchdown catch on 3rd and 4 at the Bears 7-yard line with 7 and half minutes left in the 3rd quarter down 14-13 is something the Packers been missing with Cobb out. Wide receivers James Jones and Nelson do a great job working outside while Cobb thrives in the slot. Often people say take this with a grain of salt but in this instance don't take this with a grain of salt, I think if Cobb was out this week the Packers would not have beaten the Bears.
5) Eddie Lacy (RB, LR 4): Another week, another gutty (no pun intended) performance by Lacy playing with a heavily taped sprained ankle: 21 carries for 66 yards and 1 touchdown to go along with 2 catches for 15 yards. Although that stat line does not seem that impressive given the fact that the Bears have the worst rush defense in the NFL, it is Lacy's mere presence on the field alone that gives the Packers a legitimate running threat, which opens up a number of options in the passing game. I've said many times that I am not a fan of running draws out of the shotgun but runs like Lacy's touchdown run against the Bears show that sometimes it is in fact an effective play call since it allows a patient running back like Lacy time to bounce a run outside instead of getting tackled for no gain. Lacy's touchdown run pulled the Packers within two points with just under 12 minutes to play in the game. At the time I was fine with McCarthy kicking the extra point to make it 28-27 but upon further reflection today, I think McCarthy should have gone for two in that situation to try to tie the game. Assuming McCarthy went for two, I would have run Lacy up the middle on that attempt instead of calling a passing play like McCarthy did when he actually went for two in the dying moments of the game. There is no question that Lacy had the best rookie season for a Packer that I can remember, which is why I thought he got snubbed not getting invited to the Pro Bowl.
6) Sam Shields (CB, LR 5): A little over a month ago I broke down how Packers general manager Ted Thompson should approach their impending restricted and unrestricted free agents this off-season. At that time I thought Sheilds was a long-shot to return to the Packers but my opinion has dramatically changed. Part of the reason why I thought Sheilds would not be on The 53 for the Packers in 2014 is the fact that the Packers have a number of young, talented cornerbacks on The 53 for the next few years on cheap, combined with the fact that Shields is going to demand a very large contract. At the risk of pricing Shields out Green Bay, let's not forget that he holds the distinction of coming up with a game ending interception in two of the most dramatic Packers/Bears games of all-time: 2010 NFC Champion Game & last night. I know this sounds like me being more of a fan than thinking like a general manager but at some point you need to pay players that make big plays, especially when those guys are just entering their prime like Shields is given that he just turned 26-years old. There is no question Shields is the best cornerback on The 53 right now. The real question is whether Thompson can fit a five-year, $50 million contract with at least half of that deal guaranteed into the salary cap for 2014 and beyond to keep Shields on The 53 for the Packers long-term.
8) T.J. Lang (G, LR 6): Apparently McCarthy had to be talked into going for it by his offensive line on the first of three 4th down conversions by the Packers on their final drive Just to set the stage, the Packers trailed the Bears 28-27 where they faced a 4th and 1 from their own 22-yard line with 4:41 to play and only one timeout left. Had the Packers not picked up the first down, the game would have essentially been over. I've said many times that one prism that I look through when dissecting coaching decisions is what an educated fan of the other team would not want a head coach to do. In that instance, I am sure that Bears fans would rather that the Packers punt instead of going for it. The Packers ultimately picked up the first down on a one-yard run by fullback John Kuhn but I guarantee you that a smart Bears fan, I know that seems like a non sequitur, would rather the Packers punted in that situation.
10) Tramon Williams (CB, LR 12): A gang tackle of Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey by Williams and Business HJ results in a fumble that was recovered by safety Morgan Burnett. As Burnett scampered tried to return the fumble for a touchdown, he pitched the ball to cornerback Sam Shields. Ultimately Shields was tackled after running a few more yards. That is the kind of group defensive play that we came to expect the last few years from the Packers but have not seen so far this season. The lack of big plays partially falls at the feet of the safties since they went the entire season without an interception for the first time since the 1950's. Fortunately against the Bears, the defense picked a good time to harken back to their play the last few years. Taking into account the fact that the Packers need to keep Shields long-term, I see the Packers doing everything possible to get Williams to take a pay cut next season. If Williams will not take a pay cut, as crazy as it sounds, I could see the Packers actually keeping Williams instead of cutting him like Thompson cut cornerback/safety Charles Woodson last off-season.
17) Jarrett Boykin (WR, LR 18): How many times is a ball clearly not a fumble or a pass clearly dropped but a player still picks up the ball and runs with it acting as if they have a live ball? Luckily Boykin with a little help from Rodgers and the sideline realized it was actually a live ball so he scooper it up and ran in for a touchdown. There is a lot that happened on that play so let's break it down piece-by-piece. The Packers faced a 1st and 10 on the Bears' 17-yard line down 7-3 with just over three and a half minutes left in the first half. Bears defensive end Julius Peppers knocked the ball out of Rodgers' hand. In real time it looked like Rodgers' arm might be going forward, which I presume is why Bears linebacker James Anderson didn't scoop up the ball and run. If Anderson did, the Bears would have been up 14-3. Instead Boykin recovered the fumble and ran it in for a touchdown to give the Packers a 10-7 lead. Boykin's post-game comments gave some interesting insight into what is actually happening on the field during an NFL game. Even though the fans in the stadium were screaming and the entire Packers' sideline was telling Boykin to pick up the ball, he said that the only thing he could hear was Rodgers telling him to pickup the ball and run. The emergence of Boykin as a legitimate NFL wide receiver is simultaneously a good and bad thing. It is a good thing because I could see him starting for a handful of teams in the NFL so that is a nice, cheap commodity to have on The 53 as a 3rd or 4th wide receiver. It is a bad thing because I could see the Packers letting wide receiver James Jones leave via free agency because they have to extend wide receivers Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson in the next year so having a cost-effective third wide receiver makes more sense than having three expensive wide receivers.
20) James Starks (RB, LR 24): Besides the injury to Rodgers, I will remember 2013 as the season that the Packers started being able to run for first downs on 3rd and 1 again for the first time in what felt like a decade. Whether it be fullback John Kuhn, Lacy, or Starks; it seems like the Packers finally have the physically backs on The 53 to pick up their every tricky one yard. Case and point, Starks' 41-yard run against the Bears. I would prefer the Packers use Lacy as opposed to Kuhn or Starks but the fact that we are even discussing the Packers picking up first downs on the ground is amazing. Starks is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent following this season. When healthy, Lacy is clearly the bell cow at running back. The Packers have two running backs currently on injured reserve in Jonathan Franklin and DuJuan Harris that are under contract for at least next season so they will most likely be on The 53 in 2014. I would be shocked if the Packers drafted a running back after drafting Lacy and Franklin in the 2013 NFL Draft. Since Kuhn and Starks are both set to be free agents after the season, it will be interesting to see if both return in 2014. Usually the Packers keep four or five backs on The 53. Given Kuhn's versatility in being able to play special teams and serve as a great blocking back, I see the Packers keeping Kuhn and then deciding whether they want Starks as a 4th running back on The 53 in 2014.
Speaking of the Super Bowl, the 8-7-1 Packers need to re-group because they host the 12-4 San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs next week. The 49ers are 0-2 at Lambeau Field in the playoffs and the Packers are 8-4 in NFL Wild Card games. In terms of more recent head-to-head comparisons, after the Packers dominated the 49ers for a very long-time winning eight straight, the series shifted in favor of the 49ers the last few years with the 49ers winning three consecutive games including the regular season openers the last two years (2012 & 2013) and the playoffs last year.
I do not expect a ton of turnover to The 53 this week but if there are any changes, check back for full coverage. Otherwise make sure to check back early next week for my extended thoughts on the Packers/49ers playoff game.
Friday, December 27, 2013
The 53 - 2013 Pro Bowl Thoughts
The NFL is implementing some changes for the Pro Bowl this year in hopes of somehow keeping an irrelevant game relevant. Instead of naming AFC and NFC teams, there were pools of players picked irrespective of conference. From the pools of players picked, Jerry Rice and Deion Sanders will select the teams that play in the Pro
Bowl. I am sure that ESPN loves the idea of having Rice and Sanders pick the teams because it will allow them to fill hours of airtime dissecting their meaningless draft decisions.
I hope this slight change in the Pro Bowl format serves as a bridge to a radical way to replace the Pro Bowl all together. I like the idea of recognizing the best players in the NFL and I like idea of having captain choose teams but I hate the actual game itself so here is my plan for making the Pro Bowl relevant again. Instead of using former NFL greats, make the two players that finish with the most votes the captains. Since the NFL is apparently pushing to improve player safety, instead of picking teams for a joke of a game that the Pro Bowl has become, I say pick teams for an all-day skills competition.
Sure we can have a quarterback challenge and other quasi on the field competitions but I am much more interested in the off-the-field stuff. I know each of the competitions will not get as good of television ratings as the Pro Bowl but I have solution to fill that void. The easiest off-the-field competition is an eating content that involves all the offensive and defensive lineman. Since we know the NFL loves to push any advertising it can, they can call it the BW3's Wing Eating Competition. While we are getting branding in the mix, how about an EA Sports Madden video game competition? As the Real World/Road Rules Challenge has shown us, adult spelling competitions always provide high comedy so let's add in the Dictionary.com Spelling Bee. I am sure there are ten more that we could come up with but you get the point.
I am not an advertising genius but the NFL might even be able to make more money off the Pro Bowl Skills Competition presented by Miller Lite than the actual Pro Bowl game itself currently makes depending on how much the NFL charges the advertisers for each competition. Leaving money aside for a moment, the NFL can use the downtime during the competitions to tell the back stories of the players involved in the Pro Bowl Skills Competition presented by Miller Lite, which will help them increase interest with women by making these freakish athletes seem more like regular human beings. Unfortunately since this idea makes too much sense I am sure NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will never let it see the light of day.
With my Pro Bowl Skills Competition presented by Miller Lite idea out of the way, let's take a look at the actual 2013 Pro Bowl from a Cheesehead sports perspective. The Green Bay Packers were one of five NFL teams without a player selected to the Pro Bowl. The other four teams without a Pro Bowler are the Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, and New York Jets. That marks the first time since 2005 that the Packers did not have a single player named to the Pro Bowl.
The Packers did have eight players named as Pro Bowl alternates: John Kuhn (FB), Eddie Lacy (RB), Clay Matthews (OLB), Jordy Nelson (WR), Aaron Rodgers (QB), Sam Shields (CB), Josh Sitton (G), and Tramon Williams (CB). Here are my thoughts on the three biggest Packer Pro Bowl snubs, in reverse order:
#3) Josh Sitton (LG): There were six offensive guards selected to the Pro Bowl ahead of Sitton: Jahri Evans (Saints), Ben Grubbs (Saints), Mike Iupati (49ers), Logan Mankins (Patriots), Louis Vasquez (Broncos), and Marshal Yanda (Ravens). I am fine with Iupati, Mankins, and Yanda making it ahead of Sitton. I am even fine with either Evans or Grubbs making the Pro Bowl at guard but not both given that the New Orleans Saints offensive line was not that dominate this season. I presume giving Vasquez the nod is just a tip of the cap to the Denver Bronco offensive line given that the Broncos had one of the most potent offenses in NFL history this season. In terms of Sitton's case for the Pro Bowl, not only did he seamlessly transition from right guard to left guard but he lined up next to rookie offensive tackle David Bakhtiari and blocked for a backup quarterback for almost half the regular season. Accurately comparing offensive lineman is more of an art that a science but given all that I just discussed, it would have been nice to see Sitton named to the Pro Bowl this season.
#2) Jordy Nelson (WR): There were eight wide receivers selected to the Pro Bowl ahead of Nelson: Antonio Brown (Steelers), Dez Bryant (Cowboys), Josh Gordon, (Browns), A.J. Green (Bengals), Andre Johnson (Texans), Calvin Johnson (Lions), Brandon Marshall (Bears), and Demaryius Thomas (Broncos). I honestly think if Nelson was more flashy, he would get more recognition because he made a number of highlight reel catches like his touchdown catch that helped spark the comeback against the Dallas Cowboys. Given how much the Texans have struggled this season, I probably would have given Nelson the nod over Johnson.
#1) Eddie Lacy (RB): There were the six running backs selected to the Pro Bowl ahead of Lacy: Jamaal Charles (Chiefs), Matt Forte (Bears), Frank Gore (49ers), Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks), LeSean McCoy (Eagles), and Adrian Peterson (Vikings). If I was starting a franchise tomorrow and could have any of the aforementioned group, I would have a hard time choosing between McCoy and Peterson. After that, it would be a tough choice between Lacy and Lynch when you factor in that Lynch is four years older than Lacy. I am biased in my love for Lacy so I would probably take Lacy ahead of Lynch but that is a very tough call. Oddly I am fine with Lacy getting snubbed by the Pro Bowl if that helps him win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year because I actually think that is a more important benchmark in a player's career given what a joke the Pro Bowl has become.
Let's hope no one on The 53 for the Packers can compete in the 2013 Pro Bowl because they are preparing to play in Super Bowl XLVIII. Their first step towards that goal is beating the Chicago Bears in the winner-take-all battle for the NFC North title. No matter the outcome of the game, make sure to check back early next week for my full thoughts on the Packers/Bears game.
I hope this slight change in the Pro Bowl format serves as a bridge to a radical way to replace the Pro Bowl all together. I like the idea of recognizing the best players in the NFL and I like idea of having captain choose teams but I hate the actual game itself so here is my plan for making the Pro Bowl relevant again. Instead of using former NFL greats, make the two players that finish with the most votes the captains. Since the NFL is apparently pushing to improve player safety, instead of picking teams for a joke of a game that the Pro Bowl has become, I say pick teams for an all-day skills competition.
Sure we can have a quarterback challenge and other quasi on the field competitions but I am much more interested in the off-the-field stuff. I know each of the competitions will not get as good of television ratings as the Pro Bowl but I have solution to fill that void. The easiest off-the-field competition is an eating content that involves all the offensive and defensive lineman. Since we know the NFL loves to push any advertising it can, they can call it the BW3's Wing Eating Competition. While we are getting branding in the mix, how about an EA Sports Madden video game competition? As the Real World/Road Rules Challenge has shown us, adult spelling competitions always provide high comedy so let's add in the Dictionary.com Spelling Bee. I am sure there are ten more that we could come up with but you get the point.
I am not an advertising genius but the NFL might even be able to make more money off the Pro Bowl Skills Competition presented by Miller Lite than the actual Pro Bowl game itself currently makes depending on how much the NFL charges the advertisers for each competition. Leaving money aside for a moment, the NFL can use the downtime during the competitions to tell the back stories of the players involved in the Pro Bowl Skills Competition presented by Miller Lite, which will help them increase interest with women by making these freakish athletes seem more like regular human beings. Unfortunately since this idea makes too much sense I am sure NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will never let it see the light of day.
With my Pro Bowl Skills Competition presented by Miller Lite idea out of the way, let's take a look at the actual 2013 Pro Bowl from a Cheesehead sports perspective. The Green Bay Packers were one of five NFL teams without a player selected to the Pro Bowl. The other four teams without a Pro Bowler are the Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, and New York Jets. That marks the first time since 2005 that the Packers did not have a single player named to the Pro Bowl.
The Packers did have eight players named as Pro Bowl alternates: John Kuhn (FB), Eddie Lacy (RB), Clay Matthews (OLB), Jordy Nelson (WR), Aaron Rodgers (QB), Sam Shields (CB), Josh Sitton (G), and Tramon Williams (CB). Here are my thoughts on the three biggest Packer Pro Bowl snubs, in reverse order:
#3) Josh Sitton (LG): There were six offensive guards selected to the Pro Bowl ahead of Sitton: Jahri Evans (Saints), Ben Grubbs (Saints), Mike Iupati (49ers), Logan Mankins (Patriots), Louis Vasquez (Broncos), and Marshal Yanda (Ravens). I am fine with Iupati, Mankins, and Yanda making it ahead of Sitton. I am even fine with either Evans or Grubbs making the Pro Bowl at guard but not both given that the New Orleans Saints offensive line was not that dominate this season. I presume giving Vasquez the nod is just a tip of the cap to the Denver Bronco offensive line given that the Broncos had one of the most potent offenses in NFL history this season. In terms of Sitton's case for the Pro Bowl, not only did he seamlessly transition from right guard to left guard but he lined up next to rookie offensive tackle David Bakhtiari and blocked for a backup quarterback for almost half the regular season. Accurately comparing offensive lineman is more of an art that a science but given all that I just discussed, it would have been nice to see Sitton named to the Pro Bowl this season.
#2) Jordy Nelson (WR): There were eight wide receivers selected to the Pro Bowl ahead of Nelson: Antonio Brown (Steelers), Dez Bryant (Cowboys), Josh Gordon, (Browns), A.J. Green (Bengals), Andre Johnson (Texans), Calvin Johnson (Lions), Brandon Marshall (Bears), and Demaryius Thomas (Broncos). I honestly think if Nelson was more flashy, he would get more recognition because he made a number of highlight reel catches like his touchdown catch that helped spark the comeback against the Dallas Cowboys. Given how much the Texans have struggled this season, I probably would have given Nelson the nod over Johnson.
#1) Eddie Lacy (RB): There were the six running backs selected to the Pro Bowl ahead of Lacy: Jamaal Charles (Chiefs), Matt Forte (Bears), Frank Gore (49ers), Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks), LeSean McCoy (Eagles), and Adrian Peterson (Vikings). If I was starting a franchise tomorrow and could have any of the aforementioned group, I would have a hard time choosing between McCoy and Peterson. After that, it would be a tough choice between Lacy and Lynch when you factor in that Lynch is four years older than Lacy. I am biased in my love for Lacy so I would probably take Lacy ahead of Lynch but that is a very tough call. Oddly I am fine with Lacy getting snubbed by the Pro Bowl if that helps him win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year because I actually think that is a more important benchmark in a player's career given what a joke the Pro Bowl has become.
Let's hope no one on The 53 for the Packers can compete in the 2013 Pro Bowl because they are preparing to play in Super Bowl XLVIII. Their first step towards that goal is beating the Chicago Bears in the winner-take-all battle for the NFC North title. No matter the outcome of the game, make sure to check back early next week for my full thoughts on the Packers/Bears game.
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
The 53 - Packers miracle road win over Cowboys
The Green Bay Packers knew they had to win in order to stay in the playoff hunt with a record of 6-6-1eading into their Week 15 game on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. If the playoffs implications did not add enough drama to the Packers/Cowboys game for me personally, the fact that it was most likely the last Packer game my buddy Uncle Patty (aka Dirty Nasty) was going to watch with Sug and me in Chicago before he moves to Texas for a new job only increased my pregame nerves. We watched the Packers/Cowboys at Sug's place, where I used to live as well, so we've seen many memorable games there over the last seven years. Little did I know the Packers/Cowboys game was going to be the most memorable of them all.
After the first half the Packers trailed the Cowboys 26-3 and the three points came on a 57-yard field goal from Packer place kicker Mason Croby so it looked like our last game together was going to be a bust. I made a few comments ingest at halftime that luckily Packers head coach Mike McCarthy makes great in-game adjustments. Things were looking so bleak I even asked Sug and Uncle Patty whether the Packers should replace quarterback Matt Flynn with backup Scott Tolzien despite the fact that Flynn proved me wrong marching the Packers back to a tie against the Minnesota Vikings when Tolzien was ineffective.
Instead the Packers scored five consecutive touchdowns in the second half to put together the most improbable regular season comebacks in franchise history to win 37-36. By the end of the game we were drinking whiskey on the rocks and celebrating like we were three guys on The 53 for the Packers that helped beat the Cowboys.
I have a hard time remembering a single good play for the Packers from the first half other than Crosby's field goal but there are at least a dozen from the second half that I will remember for the rest of my life. Instead of doing my traditional post about the game with updated player rankings with comments, I thought I would rank the 10 best plays from the second half in reverse order by their impact on the final result:
Honorable Mention - Crosby's 57-yard field goal: As I discussed above, the Packers trailed 26-3 going into halftime and their only points came courtesy of Crosby's foot so it does NOT qualify for the Top 10 plays of the second half since Crosby made the kick in the first half. Thanks to that make, Crosby continues his stellar season now converting 30 of his 34 attempts. Besides missing two kicks against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lambeau Field in a loss, Crosby has been consistent all season making important kicks almost every game. In college Crosby kicked for the University of Colorado but has struggled when the weather gets colder so the next two weeks will determine whether Crosby kicks for the Packers next year since he will have to kick in frigid conditions at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Soldier Field in Chicago, IL against the Chicago Bears.
#10) Williams INT Overturned (2:32 mark): With the Packers trailing 29-24, the Cowboys got the ball back with just over 12 minutes to play. On a 2nd and 5 from their own 25-yard line it looked like Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo's pass was picked off by Williams. Every turnover is reviewed by the head referee. Ultimately the refs overturned the call. Uncle Patty made a very astute comment saying that if that play happened in Green Bay the call most likely stands as an interception because refs are human so although they don't want to admit it, they might let the crowd impact their thought process ever so slightly. I initially thought that was a crazy notion but the more I think about it, the more I think Uncle Patty is correct and that the refs incorrectly overturned the called. Unfortunately the Cowboys moved the ball down the field once that drive got a second life and wide receiver Dez Bryant caught an impressive touchdown to put the Cowboys up 36-24 with just under eight minutes to play. What a swing, if the Williams interception stood the Packers most likely would have taken the lead, instead the Packers trailed the Cowboys by 12 points following that drive with just under 8 minutes to play.
#9) Nelson's One-Handed Catch (1:48 mark): Cheesehead Chick's first Packer jersey was wide receiver Donald Driver's home jersey. With Driver retired, I had to get her a jersey of a current Packer so I decided to get her wide receiver Jordy Nelson's home jersey. One-handed catches like White Lighting made against the Cowboys is just the tip of the iceberg of why that decision was a no-brainier.
#8) Quarless's TD Catch: The Packers lost tight end Jermichael Finley for the season and possibly his career Week 7 against the Cleveland Browns due to a horrific spinal cord injury, which made Andrew Quarless the nominal starter at tight end. Quarless has been fairly ho-hum all season until last week when he had a breakout performance with six catches for 66 yards and a touchdown for the Packers in their win over the Atlanta Falcons. With the Packers down 29-10, Quarless caught a 3-yard touchdown from Flynn to pull the Packers within 12 points. In one of the more random coincidences of the season, Quarless finished with the same exact stat line two weeks in a row against the Falcons and Cowboys: six catches for 66 yards and a touchdown.
#7) Starks's TD Catch: Rookie running back Eddie Lacy was out of the game when the Packers faced a 2nd and 11 at the Cowboy 11-yard line down 29-17. I hate to take anything away from running back James Starks but I think I could have scored on the screen pass to Starks given how well the offensive line blocked on that play. That play allowed the Packers to cut their lead to five points at 29-24 with 13 minutes to play.
#6) Jones's TD Catch (3:53 mark): There are very few players that quarterback Aaron Rodgers publicly called for general manager Ted Thompson to re-sign but Jones is one of those, which puts him in rarefied air. The knock on Jones throughout his career is that he has shaky hands but that has not been the case the last two seasons. Three plays at totally different points in the game by Jones were particularly impressive: his pregame catch, his first-half catch, and his second-half touchdown catch. There is a perception around the NFL that Rodgers makes his wide receiver but that perception might be changing given how well guys like Nelson, Jones, and Jarrett Boykin have performed for backup quarterbacks Flynn and Tolzien. Timing could not be more perfect for Jones because he is scheduled to become a free agent this off-season. Given that Jones is 29-years old, this will most likely be his last big payday so I expect to see him playing elsewhere in 2014 unless he takes a hometown discount.
#5) Lacy's TD Run: The Packers trailed 36-31 with the ball on first down from the Cowboy 1-yard line with 1:34 remaining in the game. The Packers lined up in a wishbone formation with defensive lineman B.J. Raji and Mike Daniels in the backfield to block for Lacy. There was no question that Lacy was going at some point. The real question was whether Lacy would score on first down or take a few attempts, which would force the Cowboys to use a timeout. With the Packers up 37-36, going for two was a no brainer. I would rather see a run play called instead of a pass play by McCarthy on the two-point conversion. If you don't believe me, since 2001 the two-point success rate via a passing play is just 44 % and while the success rate via a running play is 57 %. Let's not forget the guy that scored the touchdown either. Lacy is a freaking bowling ball that can carry defensive lineman two yards, which makes McCarthy's decision to call a pass that fell incomplete even more confounding. Luckily that decision did not matter thanks to the next play.
#4) Williams Acrobatic INT: With the Cowboys facing a 2nd and 1 on their own 29-yard line with 1:24 minutes remaining, Romo dropped back to pass and found Williams instead of his wide receiver. Originally the pass was called incomplete on the field but Williams immediately got up signaling for the Packers to challenge. Since the play occurred with less than two minutes in a half, only the booth can review the play. It looked like the booth was slow to buzz down so McCarthy took a timeout to give the refs more time. Get ready to read something that I unfortunately can only write a couple times a season. The decision to call a timeout by McCarthy was a smart in-game move because he actually thought on his feet. If we are being honest it is much more likely that McCarthy got advise from someone on his headset...see, I can still take a dig at McCarthy even when I am giving him a compliment. The refs gave the Packers the timeout back because the booth initiated the review just before the next play was run by the Cowboys. More importantly they overturned the ruling on the field so Williams sealed the victory for the Packers to them in the playoff hunt. I only ranked Williams's game ending interception as the 4th best play of the second-half, which shows you how crazy the second half was for the Packers.
#3) Nelson's TD Catch: By now we all know the Packers started the second half down down 26-3. After a nice drive thanks to a huge run by Lacy that I haven't covered yet, the Packers faced a 3rd and 3 from the Cowboy 13-yard line. When the ball left Flynn's hand, it looked like he threw a jump ball that gave Nelson a chance to make a play. Worst case scenario it is an interception and best case scenario it is a touchdown but most likely the pass falls incomplete. If the ball fell incomplete, the Packers would have settled for a field goal to make the score 26-6. Instead, Nelson plucked the ball away from the defender to pull the Packers within 16 points at 26-10. I can't understate how impressive of a play that was by Nelson. Again just another one of the 10,000 reason it made sense to get Cheesehead Chick a Nelson jersey.
#2) Shields's Athletic INT: Let me set the stage, the Packers were down 36-31 with just under three minutes to play and one timeout. The Cowboys faced a 2nd and 6 from their own 35-yard line. Instead of sticking with a run, which is what was called, Romo checked to a pass. Packers outside linebacker Clay Matthews got a free shot at Romo because of the blocking scheme called. Luckily Matthews missed Romo but hurried him enough to force a bad pass that was intercepted by cornerback Sam Shields. I've been on the fence about whether the Packers should break the bank for Shields given all the young depth they have at cornerback. Plays like the one just described are why the Packers ultimately have to back up the Brinks truck and pay Shields but make sure there are some strings attached because the Packers lucked out that somehow Shields did not get a penalty for throwing the ball into the stands following that play. That play reminded me of when Packers quarterback Seneca Wallace (since place on injured reserve) checked out of a run to a pass on Monday Night Football against the Chicago Bears shortly after he took over for injured quarterback Aaron Rodgers. I mention that play for two reasons. One, it feels like a lifetime ago that Rodgers was actually healthy and playing for the Packers. Two, you better be darn sure that you have the right defensive look if you are going to check from a run to a pass. Sure the Packers had nine in the box with no safety help over the top but I always judge those decisions on what I want the other team to do in that situation. The Cowboys were gaining 7.5 yards a carry so I would much rather see them throw than run given that an incomplete pass would stop the clock. Never in a million years did I think that play could result in an interception by Shields.
#1) Lacy's 60-yard run: The first play from scrimmage in the second half gave the Packers life they desperately needed given their struggles in the first half. Avid readers of this space know that I am critical of how much the Packers are paying fullback John Kuhn. If you watch this play again, you'll see a huge down field block by Kuhntang that turned Lacy's modest run into a game-changer. Heading into the 2013 NFL Draft I had a huge football crush on Lacy. With 141 rushing yards against the Cowboys, Lacy eclipsed 1,000 for the season to confirm my football love for Lacy. Given Lacy's injury history and physical running style he might have a short NFL career but there is no doubt that every time he touches the ball it will be fun to watch. Lacy's 60-yard spark plug run thanks to a big assist form Kuhntang is the most impressive on his NFL resume.
All of a sudden the palace to football that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones built is starting to look like Lambeau Field South given that the Packers won Super Bowl XLV over the Pittsburgh Steelers a few years ago and pulled off one of the most improbable regular season comebacks in NFL history in Jerry's Dome over the weekend. Just like Sug, UP, and I did sans all the drinks and going to a sausage-fest video game bar post-game, the Packers celebrated their improbable win in the locker room. Despite the fact that I just cherry-picked the 10 best highlights, do yourself a favor and watch the full game highlights of the Packers/Cowboys one more time.
In even better news, since the Detroit Lions lost at home to the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football, the Packers now control their playoff destiny. If the Packers beat the Steelers at home next week and the Bears on the road the follow week, they will win the NFC North and host a home playoff game for the third year in a row. For the seventh agonizing week in a row we have to play the waiting game to find out whether Rodgers is medically cleared to play. Even if Rodgers is not cleared to play this weekend, I hope to see a healthy Rodgers under center for a relevant NFL game this season.
I will miss having Uncle Patty in Chicago for sure but what a way to go out. This weekend I am traveling to Dayton, OH with Cheesehead Chick to celebrate Christmas with In-Law Cheese. We are going to see the University of Dayton play USC in basketball in the early afternoon on Sunday at UD Arena. After the game we have to high-tail it to the nearest TV, most likely BW3's, to catch the Packers/Steelers game in the afternoon. I hope to see a Flyers win followed by a Packers win. Either way, make sure to check back in this space for my extended pre-Christmas thoughts on the Flyers/Trojans and Packers/Steelers games.
After the first half the Packers trailed the Cowboys 26-3 and the three points came on a 57-yard field goal from Packer place kicker Mason Croby so it looked like our last game together was going to be a bust. I made a few comments ingest at halftime that luckily Packers head coach Mike McCarthy makes great in-game adjustments. Things were looking so bleak I even asked Sug and Uncle Patty whether the Packers should replace quarterback Matt Flynn with backup Scott Tolzien despite the fact that Flynn proved me wrong marching the Packers back to a tie against the Minnesota Vikings when Tolzien was ineffective.
Instead the Packers scored five consecutive touchdowns in the second half to put together the most improbable regular season comebacks in franchise history to win 37-36. By the end of the game we were drinking whiskey on the rocks and celebrating like we were three guys on The 53 for the Packers that helped beat the Cowboys.
I have a hard time remembering a single good play for the Packers from the first half other than Crosby's field goal but there are at least a dozen from the second half that I will remember for the rest of my life. Instead of doing my traditional post about the game with updated player rankings with comments, I thought I would rank the 10 best plays from the second half in reverse order by their impact on the final result:
Honorable Mention - Crosby's 57-yard field goal: As I discussed above, the Packers trailed 26-3 going into halftime and their only points came courtesy of Crosby's foot so it does NOT qualify for the Top 10 plays of the second half since Crosby made the kick in the first half. Thanks to that make, Crosby continues his stellar season now converting 30 of his 34 attempts. Besides missing two kicks against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lambeau Field in a loss, Crosby has been consistent all season making important kicks almost every game. In college Crosby kicked for the University of Colorado but has struggled when the weather gets colder so the next two weeks will determine whether Crosby kicks for the Packers next year since he will have to kick in frigid conditions at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Soldier Field in Chicago, IL against the Chicago Bears.
| The 53 |
| 1. Aaron Rodgers (QB, LR 1) 2. Clay Matthews (OLB, LR 2) 3. Jordy Nelson (WR, LR 3) 4. Eddie Lacy (RB, LR 4) 5. Sam Shields (CB, LR 12) 6. T.J. Lang (G, LR 6) 7. Josh Sitton (G, LR 8) 8. Morgan Burnett (S, LR 7) 9. James Jones (WR, LR 10) 10. Evan Dietrich-Smith (C, LR 9) 11. B.J. Raji (DL, LR 5) 12. David Bakhtiari (T, LR 11) 13. Mike Daniels (DL, LR 13) 14. Tramon Williams (CB, LR 14) 15. Don Barclay (T, LR 15) 16. Jarrett Boykin (WR, LR 22) 17. Nick Perry (OLB, LR 16) 18. Brad Jones (MLB, LR 17) 19. A.J. Hawk (MLB, LR 18) 20. Micah Hyde (CB, LR 20) 21. Davon House (CB, LR 19) 22. Datone Jones (DL, LR 21) 23. Matt Flynn (QB, LR 29) 24. Tim Masthay (P, LR 23) 25. Andrew Quarless (TE, LR 34) 26. Mike Neal (DL/OLB, LR 24) 27. Johnny Jolly (DL, LR 25) 28. Ryan Pickett (DL, LR 27) 29. Mason Crosby (K, LR 28) 30. Jamari Lattimore (LB, LR 30) 31. Derek Sherrod (T, LR 31) 32. Jarrett Bush (CB, LR 32) 33. John Kuhn (FB, LR 40) 34. Brett Goode (LS, LR 33) 35. Jerel Worthy (DE, LR 26) 36. Sean Richardson (S, LR 36) 37. James Starks (RB, LR 35) 38. M.D. Jennings (S, LR 38) 39. Brandon Bostick (TE, LR 39) 40. Ryan Taylor (TE, LR 41) 41. Josh Boyd (DL, LR 42) 42. J.C. Tretter (C, LR N/A) 43. Scott Tolzien (QB, LR 37) 44. C.J. Wilson (DL, LR 43) 45. Chris Banjo (S, LR 44) 46. Andy Mulamba (LB, LR 45) 47. Lane Taylor (G, LR 47) 48. Jake Stoneburner (TE, LR 48) 49. Victor Aiyewa (LB, LR 49) 50. Nate Palmer (LB, LR 51) 51. Chris Harper (WR, LR 52) 52. Marshall Newhouse (T, LR 50) 53. Kahlil Bell (RB, LR 53) |
| IR, Designated for Return |
| 1. Randall Cobb (WR) |
| Injured Reserve |
| 1. Jermichael Finley (TE) 2. Bryan Bulaga (T) 3. Casey Hayward (CB, LR 16) 4. DuJuan Harris (RB) 5. Jonathan Franklin (RB) 6. Robert Francois (MLB) 7. Greg Van Roten (C/G) 8. Sam Barrington (LB) 9. Myles White (WR, LR 46) 10. Seneca Wallace (QB) 11. James Nixon (CB, LR 53) 12. Kevin Dorsey (WR) 13. Sederrik Cunningham (WR) |
| Cut |
| 1. Jeremy Ross (WR, Lions) 2. Jerron McMillian (S, free agent) 3. Michael Hill (RB, Buccaneers) |
#9) Nelson's One-Handed Catch (1:48 mark): Cheesehead Chick's first Packer jersey was wide receiver Donald Driver's home jersey. With Driver retired, I had to get her a jersey of a current Packer so I decided to get her wide receiver Jordy Nelson's home jersey. One-handed catches like White Lighting made against the Cowboys is just the tip of the iceberg of why that decision was a no-brainier.
#8) Quarless's TD Catch: The Packers lost tight end Jermichael Finley for the season and possibly his career Week 7 against the Cleveland Browns due to a horrific spinal cord injury, which made Andrew Quarless the nominal starter at tight end. Quarless has been fairly ho-hum all season until last week when he had a breakout performance with six catches for 66 yards and a touchdown for the Packers in their win over the Atlanta Falcons. With the Packers down 29-10, Quarless caught a 3-yard touchdown from Flynn to pull the Packers within 12 points. In one of the more random coincidences of the season, Quarless finished with the same exact stat line two weeks in a row against the Falcons and Cowboys: six catches for 66 yards and a touchdown.
#7) Starks's TD Catch: Rookie running back Eddie Lacy was out of the game when the Packers faced a 2nd and 11 at the Cowboy 11-yard line down 29-17. I hate to take anything away from running back James Starks but I think I could have scored on the screen pass to Starks given how well the offensive line blocked on that play. That play allowed the Packers to cut their lead to five points at 29-24 with 13 minutes to play.
#6) Jones's TD Catch (3:53 mark): There are very few players that quarterback Aaron Rodgers publicly called for general manager Ted Thompson to re-sign but Jones is one of those, which puts him in rarefied air. The knock on Jones throughout his career is that he has shaky hands but that has not been the case the last two seasons. Three plays at totally different points in the game by Jones were particularly impressive: his pregame catch, his first-half catch, and his second-half touchdown catch. There is a perception around the NFL that Rodgers makes his wide receiver but that perception might be changing given how well guys like Nelson, Jones, and Jarrett Boykin have performed for backup quarterbacks Flynn and Tolzien. Timing could not be more perfect for Jones because he is scheduled to become a free agent this off-season. Given that Jones is 29-years old, this will most likely be his last big payday so I expect to see him playing elsewhere in 2014 unless he takes a hometown discount.
#5) Lacy's TD Run: The Packers trailed 36-31 with the ball on first down from the Cowboy 1-yard line with 1:34 remaining in the game. The Packers lined up in a wishbone formation with defensive lineman B.J. Raji and Mike Daniels in the backfield to block for Lacy. There was no question that Lacy was going at some point. The real question was whether Lacy would score on first down or take a few attempts, which would force the Cowboys to use a timeout. With the Packers up 37-36, going for two was a no brainer. I would rather see a run play called instead of a pass play by McCarthy on the two-point conversion. If you don't believe me, since 2001 the two-point success rate via a passing play is just 44 % and while the success rate via a running play is 57 %. Let's not forget the guy that scored the touchdown either. Lacy is a freaking bowling ball that can carry defensive lineman two yards, which makes McCarthy's decision to call a pass that fell incomplete even more confounding. Luckily that decision did not matter thanks to the next play.
#4) Williams Acrobatic INT: With the Cowboys facing a 2nd and 1 on their own 29-yard line with 1:24 minutes remaining, Romo dropped back to pass and found Williams instead of his wide receiver. Originally the pass was called incomplete on the field but Williams immediately got up signaling for the Packers to challenge. Since the play occurred with less than two minutes in a half, only the booth can review the play. It looked like the booth was slow to buzz down so McCarthy took a timeout to give the refs more time. Get ready to read something that I unfortunately can only write a couple times a season. The decision to call a timeout by McCarthy was a smart in-game move because he actually thought on his feet. If we are being honest it is much more likely that McCarthy got advise from someone on his headset...see, I can still take a dig at McCarthy even when I am giving him a compliment. The refs gave the Packers the timeout back because the booth initiated the review just before the next play was run by the Cowboys. More importantly they overturned the ruling on the field so Williams sealed the victory for the Packers to them in the playoff hunt. I only ranked Williams's game ending interception as the 4th best play of the second-half, which shows you how crazy the second half was for the Packers.
#3) Nelson's TD Catch: By now we all know the Packers started the second half down down 26-3. After a nice drive thanks to a huge run by Lacy that I haven't covered yet, the Packers faced a 3rd and 3 from the Cowboy 13-yard line. When the ball left Flynn's hand, it looked like he threw a jump ball that gave Nelson a chance to make a play. Worst case scenario it is an interception and best case scenario it is a touchdown but most likely the pass falls incomplete. If the ball fell incomplete, the Packers would have settled for a field goal to make the score 26-6. Instead, Nelson plucked the ball away from the defender to pull the Packers within 16 points at 26-10. I can't understate how impressive of a play that was by Nelson. Again just another one of the 10,000 reason it made sense to get Cheesehead Chick a Nelson jersey.
#2) Shields's Athletic INT: Let me set the stage, the Packers were down 36-31 with just under three minutes to play and one timeout. The Cowboys faced a 2nd and 6 from their own 35-yard line. Instead of sticking with a run, which is what was called, Romo checked to a pass. Packers outside linebacker Clay Matthews got a free shot at Romo because of the blocking scheme called. Luckily Matthews missed Romo but hurried him enough to force a bad pass that was intercepted by cornerback Sam Shields. I've been on the fence about whether the Packers should break the bank for Shields given all the young depth they have at cornerback. Plays like the one just described are why the Packers ultimately have to back up the Brinks truck and pay Shields but make sure there are some strings attached because the Packers lucked out that somehow Shields did not get a penalty for throwing the ball into the stands following that play. That play reminded me of when Packers quarterback Seneca Wallace (since place on injured reserve) checked out of a run to a pass on Monday Night Football against the Chicago Bears shortly after he took over for injured quarterback Aaron Rodgers. I mention that play for two reasons. One, it feels like a lifetime ago that Rodgers was actually healthy and playing for the Packers. Two, you better be darn sure that you have the right defensive look if you are going to check from a run to a pass. Sure the Packers had nine in the box with no safety help over the top but I always judge those decisions on what I want the other team to do in that situation. The Cowboys were gaining 7.5 yards a carry so I would much rather see them throw than run given that an incomplete pass would stop the clock. Never in a million years did I think that play could result in an interception by Shields.
#1) Lacy's 60-yard run: The first play from scrimmage in the second half gave the Packers life they desperately needed given their struggles in the first half. Avid readers of this space know that I am critical of how much the Packers are paying fullback John Kuhn. If you watch this play again, you'll see a huge down field block by Kuhntang that turned Lacy's modest run into a game-changer. Heading into the 2013 NFL Draft I had a huge football crush on Lacy. With 141 rushing yards against the Cowboys, Lacy eclipsed 1,000 for the season to confirm my football love for Lacy. Given Lacy's injury history and physical running style he might have a short NFL career but there is no doubt that every time he touches the ball it will be fun to watch. Lacy's 60-yard spark plug run thanks to a big assist form Kuhntang is the most impressive on his NFL resume.
All of a sudden the palace to football that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones built is starting to look like Lambeau Field South given that the Packers won Super Bowl XLV over the Pittsburgh Steelers a few years ago and pulled off one of the most improbable regular season comebacks in NFL history in Jerry's Dome over the weekend. Just like Sug, UP, and I did sans all the drinks and going to a sausage-fest video game bar post-game, the Packers celebrated their improbable win in the locker room. Despite the fact that I just cherry-picked the 10 best highlights, do yourself a favor and watch the full game highlights of the Packers/Cowboys one more time.
In even better news, since the Detroit Lions lost at home to the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football, the Packers now control their playoff destiny. If the Packers beat the Steelers at home next week and the Bears on the road the follow week, they will win the NFC North and host a home playoff game for the third year in a row. For the seventh agonizing week in a row we have to play the waiting game to find out whether Rodgers is medically cleared to play. Even if Rodgers is not cleared to play this weekend, I hope to see a healthy Rodgers under center for a relevant NFL game this season.
I will miss having Uncle Patty in Chicago for sure but what a way to go out. This weekend I am traveling to Dayton, OH with Cheesehead Chick to celebrate Christmas with In-Law Cheese. We are going to see the University of Dayton play USC in basketball in the early afternoon on Sunday at UD Arena. After the game we have to high-tail it to the nearest TV, most likely BW3's, to catch the Packers/Steelers game in the afternoon. I hope to see a Flyers win followed by a Packers win. Either way, make sure to check back in this space for my extended pre-Christmas thoughts on the Flyers/Trojans and Packers/Steelers games.
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
The 53 - Five Worst Contracts for 2013 GBP
Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson finalized the first incarnation of The 53 on Saturday. I say first incarnation because just two days later Thompson shook up The 53 when he cut backup quarterback B.J. Coleman and signed quarterback Seneca Wallace.
All NFL teams need to be under the $123 million salary cap, up from $120.6 million in 2012, by 3 pm today. Despite giving out two of the largest contracts in NFL history during the off-season to quarterback Aaron Rodgers and outside linebacker Clay Matthews, the Packers were still more than $9 million below the salary cap when you factor in the $900,000 minimum salary benefit so complying with the salary cap was never going to be a problem for the Packers. Keep in mind that number only accounts for the 51 most expensive players on the current roster. That cap number will go up a fair amount when you add in everyone on the 53-man roster, PUP list, injured reserve, the practice squad, injury settlements, and other dead cap charges.
Although it looks like the Packers have a fair amount of salary cap room, they will need to use it wisely because they have a number of quality starters (Evan Dietrich-Smith (C), Jermichael Finley (TE), James Jones (WR), Ryan Pickett (DL), B.J. Raji (DL), Sam Shields (CB), and C.J. Wilson (DL)) that are set to become free agents this off-season.
Last year I dealt with the five worst and five best contract together. Since these posts get long, I decided to split them up this year. I will look at the five best contracts tomorrow but first let's look at the five worst contracts on The 53:
5. Jarrett Bush (CB, $1.8 million, 19th highest cap charge on The 53): The Packers tried Bush at cornerback and safety a number of times over the past few seasons. Sure Bush had a crucial interception in Super Bowl XLV but otherwise he has struggled playing in the base defense. The same cannot be said for special teams because Bush excels on special teams. There is no doubt that Bush is one of the hardest workers on the team, unfortunately that hard work has only payed dividends on special teams as opposed to defense, which makes his salary a tad expensive for my taste. Often times teams say you can't put a price on certain things like special teams play but apparently three-year, $5.25 million is that price, which means Bush carries the 53rd highest salary cap number for cornerbacks in 2013. Bush has two years left on that deal. If the younger cornerbacks (Casey Hayward, Davon House, and Micah Hyde) can get close to Bush's level on special teams, he might be playing elsewhere in 2014.
4. Brad Jones (MLB, $2.5 million, 14th highest cap charge on The 53): The Packers handed out a bunch of smart extensions this off-season to Morgan Burnett (S), Matthews, and Rodgers. Unfortunately the three-year, $11.75 million contract they gave Jones was not a smart extension. The Packers had so many talented linebackers on the roster that they had to cut linebackers with tons of potential like Terrell Manning so the cupboard is far from bare at linebacker. Traditionally the Packers let other teams overpay players after their rookie contract unless they are potential franchise cornerstones. Sure Jones only has the 46th highest salary cap number for middle linebackers in 2013 but his cap number jumps to $4 million in 2014 and a ridiculous $4.75 million in 2015. Jones struggled in pass coverage last season, he as to improve in that phase of the game this season otherwise he might be in danger of getting cut this off-season if any of the younger linebackers (Jamari Lattimore and Sam Barrington) show they can be an every down middle linebacker.
3. Jermichael Finley (TE, $8.75 million, 2nd highest cap charge on The 53): Following the 2011 season the Packers and Finley agreed to a two-year, $14 million "prove it" contract. After paying Finley $5.25 million last season, his salary cap number jumped $3.5 million to $8.75 for this season, which means Finley carries the second highest salary cap number for tight ends in the NFL behind Zach Miller. Sure Finley is a physical freak, which makes him a match-up nightmare, but his inability to block and catch passes consistently have been his achilles heels. Look for Finley to concentrate on blocking and catching since he is a contract year because if he adds those two elements to his game, I could actually see the Packers paying top dollar to retain Finley.
2. A.J. Hawk (MLB, $5.2 million, 8th highest cap charge on The 53): Even after agreeing to cut $7.25 million off the last three years of the five-year, $33.75 million contract that Hawk signed after the 2010 season, he still has the 22nd highest salary cap number for middle linebackers in 2013. I've often referred to Hawk as the Business HJ because he gets the job done but there is nothing special about it, which is why a salary cap number of over $5 million a year through 2015 is too much for a pedestrian middle linebacker like Hawk.
1. Tramon Williams (CB, $8.5 million, 3rd highest cap charge on The 53): When the Packers signed Williams to a five-year, $38 million extension it looked like they got a steal but Williams suffered shoulder injury that limited his ability to play physical at the line of scrimmage the last two seasons, which makes him overpaid since he carries the 8th highest salary cap number of all cornerbacks in the NFL. Trust me, Williams is a much better player than Hawk but I am not sure Williams is worth $3.2 million more even thought he plays a premium position like coernerback. The Packers are going to have an interesting decision to make on Williams this off-season because Williams will is due $9.5 million in 2014 in the last year of his contract and the Packers have a ton of young talent at cornerback on the roster.
A special thanks to sportrac for their detailed NFL salary numbers, which made this post possible.
Check back tomorrow when I look at the five best contracts on The 53.
All NFL teams need to be under the $123 million salary cap, up from $120.6 million in 2012, by 3 pm today. Despite giving out two of the largest contracts in NFL history during the off-season to quarterback Aaron Rodgers and outside linebacker Clay Matthews, the Packers were still more than $9 million below the salary cap when you factor in the $900,000 minimum salary benefit so complying with the salary cap was never going to be a problem for the Packers. Keep in mind that number only accounts for the 51 most expensive players on the current roster. That cap number will go up a fair amount when you add in everyone on the 53-man roster, PUP list, injured reserve, the practice squad, injury settlements, and other dead cap charges.
Although it looks like the Packers have a fair amount of salary cap room, they will need to use it wisely because they have a number of quality starters (Evan Dietrich-Smith (C), Jermichael Finley (TE), James Jones (WR), Ryan Pickett (DL), B.J. Raji (DL), Sam Shields (CB), and C.J. Wilson (DL)) that are set to become free agents this off-season.
Last year I dealt with the five worst and five best contract together. Since these posts get long, I decided to split them up this year. I will look at the five best contracts tomorrow but first let's look at the five worst contracts on The 53:
5. Jarrett Bush (CB, $1.8 million, 19th highest cap charge on The 53): The Packers tried Bush at cornerback and safety a number of times over the past few seasons. Sure Bush had a crucial interception in Super Bowl XLV but otherwise he has struggled playing in the base defense. The same cannot be said for special teams because Bush excels on special teams. There is no doubt that Bush is one of the hardest workers on the team, unfortunately that hard work has only payed dividends on special teams as opposed to defense, which makes his salary a tad expensive for my taste. Often times teams say you can't put a price on certain things like special teams play but apparently three-year, $5.25 million is that price, which means Bush carries the 53rd highest salary cap number for cornerbacks in 2013. Bush has two years left on that deal. If the younger cornerbacks (Casey Hayward, Davon House, and Micah Hyde) can get close to Bush's level on special teams, he might be playing elsewhere in 2014.
4. Brad Jones (MLB, $2.5 million, 14th highest cap charge on The 53): The Packers handed out a bunch of smart extensions this off-season to Morgan Burnett (S), Matthews, and Rodgers. Unfortunately the three-year, $11.75 million contract they gave Jones was not a smart extension. The Packers had so many talented linebackers on the roster that they had to cut linebackers with tons of potential like Terrell Manning so the cupboard is far from bare at linebacker. Traditionally the Packers let other teams overpay players after their rookie contract unless they are potential franchise cornerstones. Sure Jones only has the 46th highest salary cap number for middle linebackers in 2013 but his cap number jumps to $4 million in 2014 and a ridiculous $4.75 million in 2015. Jones struggled in pass coverage last season, he as to improve in that phase of the game this season otherwise he might be in danger of getting cut this off-season if any of the younger linebackers (Jamari Lattimore and Sam Barrington) show they can be an every down middle linebacker.
3. Jermichael Finley (TE, $8.75 million, 2nd highest cap charge on The 53): Following the 2011 season the Packers and Finley agreed to a two-year, $14 million "prove it" contract. After paying Finley $5.25 million last season, his salary cap number jumped $3.5 million to $8.75 for this season, which means Finley carries the second highest salary cap number for tight ends in the NFL behind Zach Miller. Sure Finley is a physical freak, which makes him a match-up nightmare, but his inability to block and catch passes consistently have been his achilles heels. Look for Finley to concentrate on blocking and catching since he is a contract year because if he adds those two elements to his game, I could actually see the Packers paying top dollar to retain Finley.
2. A.J. Hawk (MLB, $5.2 million, 8th highest cap charge on The 53): Even after agreeing to cut $7.25 million off the last three years of the five-year, $33.75 million contract that Hawk signed after the 2010 season, he still has the 22nd highest salary cap number for middle linebackers in 2013. I've often referred to Hawk as the Business HJ because he gets the job done but there is nothing special about it, which is why a salary cap number of over $5 million a year through 2015 is too much for a pedestrian middle linebacker like Hawk.
1. Tramon Williams (CB, $8.5 million, 3rd highest cap charge on The 53): When the Packers signed Williams to a five-year, $38 million extension it looked like they got a steal but Williams suffered shoulder injury that limited his ability to play physical at the line of scrimmage the last two seasons, which makes him overpaid since he carries the 8th highest salary cap number of all cornerbacks in the NFL. Trust me, Williams is a much better player than Hawk but I am not sure Williams is worth $3.2 million more even thought he plays a premium position like coernerback. The Packers are going to have an interesting decision to make on Williams this off-season because Williams will is due $9.5 million in 2014 in the last year of his contract and the Packers have a ton of young talent at cornerback on the roster.
A special thanks to sportrac for their detailed NFL salary numbers, which made this post possible.
Check back tomorrow when I look at the five best contracts on The 53.
Sunday, November 11, 2012
2012 Green Bay Packers Midseason Player Rankings
I knew this was going to be a lengthy post so yesterday I dealt with the roster turnover from my initial player rankings to the current 53-man roster. Just to quickly reiterate how I cobble together my list; I factor in contract, age, position, and it runs in reverse order. For a longer explanation of my methodology check my initial rankings. Here
are my mid-season rankings of the 53-man
roster for the 2012 Green Bay Packers (initial rankings are in parenthesis):
#53 (53) Jarrett Boykin (WR) - The Packers could easily add a 6th wide receiver in place of Boykins who has seen little action despite injuries to a number of wide receivers.
#52 (51) Sean Richardson (S) - Injuries have really hampered Richardson's ability to get on the field, which is too bad because his combination of size and speed is very enticing.
#51 (NR) Johnny White (RB) - The former Buffalo Bills castoff, which is usually NOT a compliment, was claimed off waiver by the Packers to replace Brandon Saine as a special teams player. After being inactive for his first week after joining the Packers, White picked up right where Brandon Saine left off as a special teams player that happens to be classified as a running back. Trust me, if White is getting significant carries in anything other than the Packers blowing out an opponent, we've got problems.
#50 (NR) Andrew Quarless (TE) - Recovering from gruesome injuries has to be physically and mentally draining. I hope Quarless can make it through 2012 healthy while catching a few passes along the way to make all the hard work he has put into getting back onto the field worth it.
#49 (42)Terrell Manning (MLB) - I am always reticent to meet players because it clouds my ability to objectively write about them. When Cheesehead Chick, Mama Cheese, Papa Cheese, and In-Law Cheese stopped in Green Bay to buy gear from the Packer Pro Shop on the way to Door County we met Manning because he stopped to take tons of pictures with fans. Let's just say Manning is a nicer person off the field than a player on the field.
#48 (NR) Greg Van Roten (OL) - With starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga most likely headed to injured reserve, Van Roten is two injuries away from playing in a real NFL game. Add in that Van Roten really can only play guard and the Packers are in real trouble if Van Roten plays a meaningful snap in 2012.
#47 (41) Graham Harrell (QB) - At some point the Packers might want to consider signing a competent veteran backup to the 53-man roster instead of leaving Harrell one play from taking over if Rodgers gets hurt.
#46 (46) Rob Francois (MLB) - Some players can carve out a niche as a career special teams guy, which is what Francois has to continue to do if he wants to keep his roster spot.
#45 (39) D.J. Williams (TE) - With all the injuries the Packers suffered at wide receiver and fullback, it looked like Williams might be the beneficiary but shaky hands have prevented him from capitalizing on those opportunities.
#44 (44) James Starks (RB) - Might as well gives Starks his jersey number for two sets of rankings in a row right? A 17 carry, 61 yard performance against the Arizona Cardinals is hardly something to brag about but the Packers have gotten absolutely no production out of Starks for the first eight games of the season so they will take what they can get on the ground. I would like to see the Packers make Starks their every down back when they are trying to grind it out with Green as their every down back when they go no huddle. I know that tips their hand a bit but they might as well cater to each player's strengths.
#43 (50) Don Barclay (T) - I hate cliches but the Packers truly buy into the "next guy up" because there is no talk of them adding a veteran offensive lineman, so they are one injury away from undrafted rookie free agent Don Barclay being one of the five guys that protects Aaron Rodgers. I try to pick my spots where I am critical of general manager Ted Thompson because he has done a very impressive job managing the roster but Thompson needs to add a quality veteran offensive lineman to the roster sooner rather than later, especially if they put Bryan Bulaga on injured reserve.
#42 (NR) Frank Zombo (OLB) - There is only so high that I can rank a guy that was recently added to the active roster from PUP but assuming that Zombo is in fact healthy, I see Zombo finishing at least in the low 30's in my final rankings based on what Zombo can potentially do as a rush outside linebacker in the base 3-4 defense.
#41 (43) Ryan Taylor (TE) - The Packers finally identified a special team maven that doesn't even need to play snaps on offense to justify his roster spot. That is particularly important for Taylor because the Packers are again carrying five tight ends on their 53-man roster, which I've noted many times I think is excessive.
#40 (35) Jamari Lattimore (MLB) - A hybrid inside/outside linebacker is a rare commodity, which makes Lattimore very valuable commodity for the Packers in 2012, especially considering all the linebackers (Bishop, Perry, and Smith) lost for the season.
#39 (33) John Kuhn (FB) - As if playing fullback in a high octane offensive doesn't marginalize Kuhn enough, injuries have further marginalized Kuhn than playing fullback in 2012.
#38 (27) Mason Crosby (K) - When the Milwaukee Brewers were contemplating building Miller Park next to County Stadium or downtown, I got in a number of arguments with my buddy Sug. I was firmly in the downtown camp while Sug wanted the stadium built next to County Stadium to cater to suburban Brewer fans. A similar argument started when Crosby signed a five-year, $15 million contract before the 2011 season. I hated the contract while Sug agreed with paying Crosby. While the Miller Park argument took a number of years to settle in my favor, less than two years later I've won the Crosby argument as well so whenever I see Crosby I think of Miller Park being built in no man's land. Sorry Sug, you are 0-2 on those arguments, which ironically is a standard outing for Crosby theses days.
#37 (29) Alex Green (RB) - I thought Green was the perfect back for the Packers' no-huddle offense. With Benson out of the lineup, Green's play has been sub-par. Chalk some of that up to Green being less than a year removed from a serious knee injury though, so we might not know till the end of 2013 whether Crosby is the perfect back for the Packers' no huddle offense.
#36 (45) Brett Goode (LS) - The Packers wisely recently extended Goode for a few more years since Goode has been nothing short of great (funny pun right) as their long snapper.
#35 (38) Mike Daniels (DL) - The ideal third down pass rusher needs to add some strength in the off-season if he wants to see the field on 1st or 2nd down.
#34 (37) Tom Crabtree (TE) - The recipient of two of the most notable touchdown passes of the season (fake punt against the Bears on 4th & 26 and 72-yard reception against the Cardinals) deserves to be targeted more than nine times through nine games.
#33 (36) Dezman Moses (OLB) - Looks like a potentially violent situational pass rusher for the Packers in 2012 but let's not forget that Vic So'oto looked poised to fill a similar role in 2011 but flopped.
#32 (NR) Mike Neal - After serving his four game suspension, Neal has shown flashes of the dominate player the Packers thought they were drafting in the 2010 Draft.
#31 (48) Brad Jones (MLB) - I listed Jones as an outside linebacker in my original rankings, which is how the Packers viewed Jones at the start of the season. After losing both Bishop and Smith, the Packers slide Jones inside where he has preformed as well if not better than Smith so far.
#30 (23) Donald Driver (WR) - Probably the most beloved current Packer is having a disappointing season on two fronts. Not only has DD not played that much despite all the injuries to their wide receivers but when DD has been on the field, he's struggled. As much as it would pain me to see DD play for another team, if he truly wants to play for a few more years, I hope he plays for a team that can harness his leadership qualities for the betterment of their organization.
#29 (16) Jerel Worthy (DL) - After a strong start to the season, an ability to properly time his pass rush combined with a concussion stunted Worthy's impressive start to the season. Hopefully a few weeks off allowed Worthy to not only heal but watch some tape that will help him cut down on the offsides penalties.
#28 (21) Jeff Saturday (C) - So far Saturday as been a substantial downgrade from former starting center Scott Wells. At the very least the Packers need Saturday to stay healthy because they have razor thin depth along the offensive line.
#27 (34) Evan Dietrich-Smith (C) - As I said in my initial rankings: "If any of the starting five offensive lineman are hurt, EDS is the first off the bench that could have a chain reaction of moving a few players around on the offensive line since EDS could really only fill in at guard or center." Please don't blame me for Bulaga's injury, which forced the Packers to move T.J. Lang from left guard to right tackle and insert EDS is Lang's place. Let's hope that is the end of the offensive line shuffle because although EDS is a borderline NFL starter, the rest of the offensive line backups (Barclay and Van Roten) are currently below average NFL offensive lineman at best.
#26 (32) Jerron McMillian (S) - After a few games it looked like McMillian was going to be the Packers rookie of the year but a few games does not make a season since McMillian's play has leveled off as the season progresses. Usually the bye week helps players get healthy but for rookies like McMillian from small college programs, the bye week gives them a chance to relax outside the limelight of the NFL to get ready for a playoff push.
#25 (30) C.J. Wilson (DL) - There is only so many times that I can reiterate how valuable base 3-4 defensive ends are in the NFL, which Wilson continues to excel so although 24 feels high, may be it is not high enough.
#24 (40) M.D. Jennings (S) - Just when I started to forget about the Packers "losing" to the Seahawks, I ran some playoff scenarios and my disdain for that game came roaring back. The Packers better win the NFC North because if it comes down to tie-breakers, you might see all Cheesehead football fans go Postal on the NFL.
#23 (25) Tim Masthay (P) - For how horrible Crosby has been place kicking, Masthay has been the bizarro Crosby with a 44.5 yard gross punting average and 40.7 yard net punting average in 2012.
#22 (24) Sam Shields (CB) - Shields had a great 2010 and lackluster 2011, which has been a microcosm for his 2012 season because he got off to a good start but then an injury left hm inactive for the last three games. The Packers need the healthy 2010 version not the unhealthy 2011 version of Shields.
#21 (22) Jarrett Bush (CB) - As always, Bush continues to thrive on special teams and struggle when he plays defensively.
#20 (26) Davon House (CB) - Shoulder injury aside, House has shown flashes of being a poor man's Al Harris, which is great for the Packers since they most likely envision House as their 4th cornerback if everyone is healthy.
#19 (4) Jermichael Finley (TE) - Oh how the mighty have fallen. Finley has essentially turned into an expensive decoy. I still don't believe that will lead to the Packers declining what amounts to a team option for 2013 but Finley better pick-up his play if he wants to get in line behind Rodgers, Matthews, and Raji for a mega contract extension.
#18 (NR) Erik Walden (OLB) - With Perry out for the rest of 2012 look for Walden to put up big numbers for the rest of the season since it looks like he will get all the snaps opposite Claymaker instead of sharing them with Perry.
#17 (10) Bryan Bulaga (T) - I would bet Bulaga is put on injured reserve before December but with the lack of depth on the offensive line around the NFL, even a hurt Bulaga is a valuable commodity.
#16 (9) Greg Jennings (WR) - Injuries are the worst thing that can happen for both a player and their club in a contract year because it muddies their market value. With Jennings set to be a free agent this off-season, the Packers should still give the franchise tag to Jennings, despite him struggling with injuries throughout 2012 because of otherwise Jennings will leave for nothing ala Aaron Kampman.
#15 (14) Marshall Newhouse (T) - I mentioned that if Newhouse struggled in 2012: "Chad Clifton's agent might be getting a phone call" but it looks like even though Newhouse has played relatively well this season, Clifton's agent might still get a call to give the Packers an actual backup offensive tackle with some NFL experience under his belt.
#14 (28) A.J. Hawk (MLB) - Trust me, I am the last guy that wants to praise Hawk, but he has played very well in 2012. In the preseason I was calling for the Packers to cut Hawk but luckily they held onto him because without Hawk the Packers would not have even one healthy, NFL tested middle linebacker on the roster despite needing at least two.
#13 (12) Morgan Burnett (S) - With Woodson shuffling between cornerback and safety when healthy combined with McMillian and Jennings sharing snaps at safety, Burnett has been the only constant at safety for the Packers in 2012. Usually it is not a good sign when your safety is leading the team in tackles but in Burnett's case I take it as a positive because the Packers have been using Burnett like they used to use Nick Collins in the past.
#12 (18) Casey Hayward (CB) - Hands down the most pleasant surprise on the roster in 2012 is actually a candidate for defensive rookie of the year thanks to his impressive coverage that has resulted in a team leading four interceptions. Some might chalk up Hayward's play to rookie luck but I see Hayward as a long term starter at cornerback opposite Tramon Williams.
#11 (7) Charles Woodson (CB) - Lack of big plays, injuries, and the highest salary on the team means Woodson is going to have to take less money in 2013 if he wants to play for the Packers.
#10 (6) Jordy Nelson (WR) - Despite struggling with hamstring and ankle injuries, Nelson is still leading the team in receiving yardage
#9 (8) Josh Sitton (G) - A healthy Sitton in 2012 helped erase memories of his struggles in 2011 to help justify his expensive contract extension.
#8 (17) Ryan Pickett (DL) - When people talk about freak athletes in professional sports they usually talk about chiseled, muscle bound players like Jermichael Finley. Guys like Ryan Pickett are equally freakish athletes, they are just not as impressive to look at with their shirt off, but impressive nonetheless.
#7 (11) T.J. Lang (G/T) - I had to change Lang's position from G to G/T since he is filling in at right tackle for the injured Bulaga for the rest of the season unless Bulaga makes a miraculous recovery. Good for Lang that he got paid in the off-season because I see Lang struggling at right tackle, which is too bad because Lang was thriving at left guard this season.
#6 (5) Tramon Williams (CB) - Although Williams only has two interceptions so far in 2012, it has been a much better season than 2011 because Williams has almost full function of his injured shoulder, which makes him a bump-and-run corner for the first time since 2010.
#5 (19) James Jones (WR) - I.A.R.W.T. stands for In Aaron Rodgers We Trust. Some franchise quarterbacks routinely give the front office suggestions but Rodgers has been selective in making suggestions. Rodgers publicly pleaded with management to resign Jones, which looks downright prophetic now.
#4 (3) B.J. Raji (DL) - The Packers have managed Raji's snap count much better this year, thanks to the emergence of some young blood (Daniels, Neal, and Worthy) along the defensive line. Now the Packers need to focus on getting Raji signed to a long-term contract before the end of the season.
#3 (13) Randall Cobb (WR) - I compared Cobb to New Orleans Saint Darren Sproles at the start of the season. I don't want to overreact but just a few months later, every NFL team besides the New Orleans Saints would rather have Cobb than Sproles.
#2 (2) Clay Matthews (OLB) - Another pesky hamstring injury will most likely keep Mathews out at least a game or two. Although Matthews is the most valuable defensive player, rushing him back is not advisable because hamstring injuries are particularly finicky. Plus reducing stats thanks to sitting out games is the only way outside of Matthews testing positive for PED's that the Packers can gain leverage in the upcoming contract negotiations.
#1 (1) Aaron Rodgers (QB) - It looked like Rodgers started 2012 slow but it had more to do with the opposition as opposed to Rodgers because the Packers opened against three of the best defenses in football: 49ers, Bears, and Seahawks. Starting with Week 4, Rodgers caught fire and has been on a roll ever since. While it is encouraging that Rodgers has been playing better as of late, he better figure out how to beat the defenses he faced Week #1-3 because those look like three of their potential playoff opponents this January.
As always, thanks for reading and please feel free to comment if you disagree with any of my rankings.
#53 (53) Jarrett Boykin (WR) - The Packers could easily add a 6th wide receiver in place of Boykins who has seen little action despite injuries to a number of wide receivers.
#52 (51) Sean Richardson (S) - Injuries have really hampered Richardson's ability to get on the field, which is too bad because his combination of size and speed is very enticing.
#51 (NR) Johnny White (RB) - The former Buffalo Bills castoff, which is usually NOT a compliment, was claimed off waiver by the Packers to replace Brandon Saine as a special teams player. After being inactive for his first week after joining the Packers, White picked up right where Brandon Saine left off as a special teams player that happens to be classified as a running back. Trust me, if White is getting significant carries in anything other than the Packers blowing out an opponent, we've got problems.
#50 (NR) Andrew Quarless (TE) - Recovering from gruesome injuries has to be physically and mentally draining. I hope Quarless can make it through 2012 healthy while catching a few passes along the way to make all the hard work he has put into getting back onto the field worth it.
#49 (42)Terrell Manning (MLB) - I am always reticent to meet players because it clouds my ability to objectively write about them. When Cheesehead Chick, Mama Cheese, Papa Cheese, and In-Law Cheese stopped in Green Bay to buy gear from the Packer Pro Shop on the way to Door County we met Manning because he stopped to take tons of pictures with fans. Let's just say Manning is a nicer person off the field than a player on the field.
#48 (NR) Greg Van Roten (OL) - With starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga most likely headed to injured reserve, Van Roten is two injuries away from playing in a real NFL game. Add in that Van Roten really can only play guard and the Packers are in real trouble if Van Roten plays a meaningful snap in 2012.
#47 (41) Graham Harrell (QB) - At some point the Packers might want to consider signing a competent veteran backup to the 53-man roster instead of leaving Harrell one play from taking over if Rodgers gets hurt.
#46 (46) Rob Francois (MLB) - Some players can carve out a niche as a career special teams guy, which is what Francois has to continue to do if he wants to keep his roster spot.
#45 (39) D.J. Williams (TE) - With all the injuries the Packers suffered at wide receiver and fullback, it looked like Williams might be the beneficiary but shaky hands have prevented him from capitalizing on those opportunities.
#44 (44) James Starks (RB) - Might as well gives Starks his jersey number for two sets of rankings in a row right? A 17 carry, 61 yard performance against the Arizona Cardinals is hardly something to brag about but the Packers have gotten absolutely no production out of Starks for the first eight games of the season so they will take what they can get on the ground. I would like to see the Packers make Starks their every down back when they are trying to grind it out with Green as their every down back when they go no huddle. I know that tips their hand a bit but they might as well cater to each player's strengths.
#43 (50) Don Barclay (T) - I hate cliches but the Packers truly buy into the "next guy up" because there is no talk of them adding a veteran offensive lineman, so they are one injury away from undrafted rookie free agent Don Barclay being one of the five guys that protects Aaron Rodgers. I try to pick my spots where I am critical of general manager Ted Thompson because he has done a very impressive job managing the roster but Thompson needs to add a quality veteran offensive lineman to the roster sooner rather than later, especially if they put Bryan Bulaga on injured reserve.
#42 (NR) Frank Zombo (OLB) - There is only so high that I can rank a guy that was recently added to the active roster from PUP but assuming that Zombo is in fact healthy, I see Zombo finishing at least in the low 30's in my final rankings based on what Zombo can potentially do as a rush outside linebacker in the base 3-4 defense.
#41 (43) Ryan Taylor (TE) - The Packers finally identified a special team maven that doesn't even need to play snaps on offense to justify his roster spot. That is particularly important for Taylor because the Packers are again carrying five tight ends on their 53-man roster, which I've noted many times I think is excessive.
#40 (35) Jamari Lattimore (MLB) - A hybrid inside/outside linebacker is a rare commodity, which makes Lattimore very valuable commodity for the Packers in 2012, especially considering all the linebackers (Bishop, Perry, and Smith) lost for the season.
#39 (33) John Kuhn (FB) - As if playing fullback in a high octane offensive doesn't marginalize Kuhn enough, injuries have further marginalized Kuhn than playing fullback in 2012.
#38 (27) Mason Crosby (K) - When the Milwaukee Brewers were contemplating building Miller Park next to County Stadium or downtown, I got in a number of arguments with my buddy Sug. I was firmly in the downtown camp while Sug wanted the stadium built next to County Stadium to cater to suburban Brewer fans. A similar argument started when Crosby signed a five-year, $15 million contract before the 2011 season. I hated the contract while Sug agreed with paying Crosby. While the Miller Park argument took a number of years to settle in my favor, less than two years later I've won the Crosby argument as well so whenever I see Crosby I think of Miller Park being built in no man's land. Sorry Sug, you are 0-2 on those arguments, which ironically is a standard outing for Crosby theses days.
#37 (29) Alex Green (RB) - I thought Green was the perfect back for the Packers' no-huddle offense. With Benson out of the lineup, Green's play has been sub-par. Chalk some of that up to Green being less than a year removed from a serious knee injury though, so we might not know till the end of 2013 whether Crosby is the perfect back for the Packers' no huddle offense.
#36 (45) Brett Goode (LS) - The Packers wisely recently extended Goode for a few more years since Goode has been nothing short of great (funny pun right) as their long snapper.
#35 (38) Mike Daniels (DL) - The ideal third down pass rusher needs to add some strength in the off-season if he wants to see the field on 1st or 2nd down.
#34 (37) Tom Crabtree (TE) - The recipient of two of the most notable touchdown passes of the season (fake punt against the Bears on 4th & 26 and 72-yard reception against the Cardinals) deserves to be targeted more than nine times through nine games.
#33 (36) Dezman Moses (OLB) - Looks like a potentially violent situational pass rusher for the Packers in 2012 but let's not forget that Vic So'oto looked poised to fill a similar role in 2011 but flopped.
#32 (NR) Mike Neal - After serving his four game suspension, Neal has shown flashes of the dominate player the Packers thought they were drafting in the 2010 Draft.
#31 (48) Brad Jones (MLB) - I listed Jones as an outside linebacker in my original rankings, which is how the Packers viewed Jones at the start of the season. After losing both Bishop and Smith, the Packers slide Jones inside where he has preformed as well if not better than Smith so far.
#30 (23) Donald Driver (WR) - Probably the most beloved current Packer is having a disappointing season on two fronts. Not only has DD not played that much despite all the injuries to their wide receivers but when DD has been on the field, he's struggled. As much as it would pain me to see DD play for another team, if he truly wants to play for a few more years, I hope he plays for a team that can harness his leadership qualities for the betterment of their organization.
#29 (16) Jerel Worthy (DL) - After a strong start to the season, an ability to properly time his pass rush combined with a concussion stunted Worthy's impressive start to the season. Hopefully a few weeks off allowed Worthy to not only heal but watch some tape that will help him cut down on the offsides penalties.
#28 (21) Jeff Saturday (C) - So far Saturday as been a substantial downgrade from former starting center Scott Wells. At the very least the Packers need Saturday to stay healthy because they have razor thin depth along the offensive line.
#27 (34) Evan Dietrich-Smith (C) - As I said in my initial rankings: "If any of the starting five offensive lineman are hurt, EDS is the first off the bench that could have a chain reaction of moving a few players around on the offensive line since EDS could really only fill in at guard or center." Please don't blame me for Bulaga's injury, which forced the Packers to move T.J. Lang from left guard to right tackle and insert EDS is Lang's place. Let's hope that is the end of the offensive line shuffle because although EDS is a borderline NFL starter, the rest of the offensive line backups (Barclay and Van Roten) are currently below average NFL offensive lineman at best.
#26 (32) Jerron McMillian (S) - After a few games it looked like McMillian was going to be the Packers rookie of the year but a few games does not make a season since McMillian's play has leveled off as the season progresses. Usually the bye week helps players get healthy but for rookies like McMillian from small college programs, the bye week gives them a chance to relax outside the limelight of the NFL to get ready for a playoff push.
#25 (30) C.J. Wilson (DL) - There is only so many times that I can reiterate how valuable base 3-4 defensive ends are in the NFL, which Wilson continues to excel so although 24 feels high, may be it is not high enough.
#24 (40) M.D. Jennings (S) - Just when I started to forget about the Packers "losing" to the Seahawks, I ran some playoff scenarios and my disdain for that game came roaring back. The Packers better win the NFC North because if it comes down to tie-breakers, you might see all Cheesehead football fans go Postal on the NFL.
#23 (25) Tim Masthay (P) - For how horrible Crosby has been place kicking, Masthay has been the bizarro Crosby with a 44.5 yard gross punting average and 40.7 yard net punting average in 2012.
#22 (24) Sam Shields (CB) - Shields had a great 2010 and lackluster 2011, which has been a microcosm for his 2012 season because he got off to a good start but then an injury left hm inactive for the last three games. The Packers need the healthy 2010 version not the unhealthy 2011 version of Shields.
#21 (22) Jarrett Bush (CB) - As always, Bush continues to thrive on special teams and struggle when he plays defensively.
#20 (26) Davon House (CB) - Shoulder injury aside, House has shown flashes of being a poor man's Al Harris, which is great for the Packers since they most likely envision House as their 4th cornerback if everyone is healthy.
#19 (4) Jermichael Finley (TE) - Oh how the mighty have fallen. Finley has essentially turned into an expensive decoy. I still don't believe that will lead to the Packers declining what amounts to a team option for 2013 but Finley better pick-up his play if he wants to get in line behind Rodgers, Matthews, and Raji for a mega contract extension.
#18 (NR) Erik Walden (OLB) - With Perry out for the rest of 2012 look for Walden to put up big numbers for the rest of the season since it looks like he will get all the snaps opposite Claymaker instead of sharing them with Perry.
#17 (10) Bryan Bulaga (T) - I would bet Bulaga is put on injured reserve before December but with the lack of depth on the offensive line around the NFL, even a hurt Bulaga is a valuable commodity.
#16 (9) Greg Jennings (WR) - Injuries are the worst thing that can happen for both a player and their club in a contract year because it muddies their market value. With Jennings set to be a free agent this off-season, the Packers should still give the franchise tag to Jennings, despite him struggling with injuries throughout 2012 because of otherwise Jennings will leave for nothing ala Aaron Kampman.
#15 (14) Marshall Newhouse (T) - I mentioned that if Newhouse struggled in 2012: "Chad Clifton's agent might be getting a phone call" but it looks like even though Newhouse has played relatively well this season, Clifton's agent might still get a call to give the Packers an actual backup offensive tackle with some NFL experience under his belt.
#14 (28) A.J. Hawk (MLB) - Trust me, I am the last guy that wants to praise Hawk, but he has played very well in 2012. In the preseason I was calling for the Packers to cut Hawk but luckily they held onto him because without Hawk the Packers would not have even one healthy, NFL tested middle linebacker on the roster despite needing at least two.
#13 (12) Morgan Burnett (S) - With Woodson shuffling between cornerback and safety when healthy combined with McMillian and Jennings sharing snaps at safety, Burnett has been the only constant at safety for the Packers in 2012. Usually it is not a good sign when your safety is leading the team in tackles but in Burnett's case I take it as a positive because the Packers have been using Burnett like they used to use Nick Collins in the past.
#12 (18) Casey Hayward (CB) - Hands down the most pleasant surprise on the roster in 2012 is actually a candidate for defensive rookie of the year thanks to his impressive coverage that has resulted in a team leading four interceptions. Some might chalk up Hayward's play to rookie luck but I see Hayward as a long term starter at cornerback opposite Tramon Williams.
#11 (7) Charles Woodson (CB) - Lack of big plays, injuries, and the highest salary on the team means Woodson is going to have to take less money in 2013 if he wants to play for the Packers.
#10 (6) Jordy Nelson (WR) - Despite struggling with hamstring and ankle injuries, Nelson is still leading the team in receiving yardage
#9 (8) Josh Sitton (G) - A healthy Sitton in 2012 helped erase memories of his struggles in 2011 to help justify his expensive contract extension.
#8 (17) Ryan Pickett (DL) - When people talk about freak athletes in professional sports they usually talk about chiseled, muscle bound players like Jermichael Finley. Guys like Ryan Pickett are equally freakish athletes, they are just not as impressive to look at with their shirt off, but impressive nonetheless.
#7 (11) T.J. Lang (G/T) - I had to change Lang's position from G to G/T since he is filling in at right tackle for the injured Bulaga for the rest of the season unless Bulaga makes a miraculous recovery. Good for Lang that he got paid in the off-season because I see Lang struggling at right tackle, which is too bad because Lang was thriving at left guard this season.
#6 (5) Tramon Williams (CB) - Although Williams only has two interceptions so far in 2012, it has been a much better season than 2011 because Williams has almost full function of his injured shoulder, which makes him a bump-and-run corner for the first time since 2010.
#5 (19) James Jones (WR) - I.A.R.W.T. stands for In Aaron Rodgers We Trust. Some franchise quarterbacks routinely give the front office suggestions but Rodgers has been selective in making suggestions. Rodgers publicly pleaded with management to resign Jones, which looks downright prophetic now.
#4 (3) B.J. Raji (DL) - The Packers have managed Raji's snap count much better this year, thanks to the emergence of some young blood (Daniels, Neal, and Worthy) along the defensive line. Now the Packers need to focus on getting Raji signed to a long-term contract before the end of the season.
#3 (13) Randall Cobb (WR) - I compared Cobb to New Orleans Saint Darren Sproles at the start of the season. I don't want to overreact but just a few months later, every NFL team besides the New Orleans Saints would rather have Cobb than Sproles.
#2 (2) Clay Matthews (OLB) - Another pesky hamstring injury will most likely keep Mathews out at least a game or two. Although Matthews is the most valuable defensive player, rushing him back is not advisable because hamstring injuries are particularly finicky. Plus reducing stats thanks to sitting out games is the only way outside of Matthews testing positive for PED's that the Packers can gain leverage in the upcoming contract negotiations.
#1 (1) Aaron Rodgers (QB) - It looked like Rodgers started 2012 slow but it had more to do with the opposition as opposed to Rodgers because the Packers opened against three of the best defenses in football: 49ers, Bears, and Seahawks. Starting with Week 4, Rodgers caught fire and has been on a roll ever since. While it is encouraging that Rodgers has been playing better as of late, he better figure out how to beat the defenses he faced Week #1-3 because those look like three of their potential playoff opponents this January.
As always, thanks for reading and please feel free to comment if you disagree with any of my rankings.
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