Sunday, May 3, 2015

Building The 53 - 2015 Green Bay Packer Draft Picks

Welcome to my sixth annual review of Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson's performance in the NFL Draft (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, & 2014).  The 2015 NFL Draft marked Thompson's eleventh draft of his tenure in Green Bay. As I've said a number of times in this space, there is no question that the best pick Thompson made during his tenure (so far) in Green Bay was his first in 2005 when he drafted quarterback Aaron Rodgers with the 24th pick.

The last two years Thompson put together very successful drafts after a couple of mostly forgettable drafts in 2011 and 2012.  Over the last two years Thompson struck gold early in the draft when he selected former Alabama players.  In 2013 Thompson drafted running back Eddie Lacy in the second round and in 2014 he drafted safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.  Both of those picks are sexy given that they were early picks that look like borderline franchise players but it is really Thompson's ability to add quality guys later in the draft that keeps the Packers as perennial playoff contenders.  In those two drafts Thompson added just as many borderline franchise players after the 4th (left tackle David Bakhitiari) and 5th (center Corey Linsley) rounds too.


Only time will tell if Thompson had a third consecutive successful draft or if he just started another run of two down draft.  The Packers entered the 2015 NFL Draft with nine picks but Thompson traded the 166th and 247th picks to the New England Patriots for the 147th pick, which he used to draft UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley.  According to this draft pick trade analysis website, the trade was actually a net loss for Thompson but I am willing to give Thompson a pass for four reasons.  One, for how much Thompson loves to trade down it was nice to see him actually move up in the draft.  Two, Thompson finally drafted a quarterback for the first time since he took B.J. Coleman in the 7th round of the 2012 NFL Draft.  Three, Thompson didn't give up a future pick as a part of the deal.  Four, the Packers added a player at a position of need given that the Packers have had very inconsistent play at the backup quarterback spot behind Rodgers.  The only other (mild) shocker was that Thompson added three skill position guys on offense despite the fact that the Packers looked set at those positions.

Just for fun, this year I added two new metrics for my review of each player: how Mel Kiper Jr. had him rated on his final Top 300 (ESPN Insider required) and how Scouts Inc. rated them between 1 and 340 (again, ESPN Insider required).  Take these rankings with a grain of salt though because it is really hard to parse the difference between 150 and 250.

These posts always run long so without further adu, here is my review of the eight players that Thompson drafted in the 2015 NFL Draft:


1st Round (30th): Damarious Randall, Cornerback/Safety
Twitter Handle: @RandallTime
School: Arizona State (Pac-12)
Height: .5'-10⅞"
Weight: 196 lbs
Arm Length: 30-1/4"
Hand Size: 8-5/8"
40-yard Dash: 4.46 sec
3-cone Drill: 6.83 sec
20-yard Shuttle: 4.07 sec
225-pound Bench Press: 14 reps
Vertical Leap: 38"
Broad Jump: 120"
Wonderlic: ?
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 38 of 340
Kiper's Ranking: 31 of 300
Other Possible Picks: Malcolm Brown (DL, Texas), Preston Smith (DE, Mississippi St.), Eddie Goldman (DT, Florida State), or Jalen Collins (CB, LSU)
Tweet:
Analysis: My tweet about Randall serving as a hybrid LB/CB/S was a little premature unless he is able to add some bulks to his frame.  Early word is that the Packers are going to move Randall to cornerback, which makes sense given his impressive coverage skills.  That means the top three cornerbacks on the roster right now are Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, and Randall.  It will be interesting to see if the Packers use Hayward or Randall outside opposite Shields because the other guy will presumably start in the slot.  Clearly Thompson had Randall higher on his board than some other guys that I thought would be more immediate help.  The early comparisons for Randall are to 49ers safety Jimmie Ward, a guy that I liked for the Packers last year that went 30th overall to the San Francisco 49ers after the Packers drafted Ha-Ha Clinton Dix 21st overall.  I generally trust Thompson but I am a little skeptical of how easily Randall can transition to cornerback in the NFL.  If Randall struggles at cornerback, I could see them moving Micah Hyde to cornerback and letting Randall focus on safety.  Finally, Thompson passed on some big bodied defensive lineman (Brown, Smith, and Goldman) that looked very plug-and-play options for the Packers.


2nd Round (62nd): Quinten Rollins, Cornerback
Twitter Handle: @QRollins2
School: Miami University (Mid-American Conference)
Height: 5'-11⅛"
Weight: 195 lbs
Arm Length: 30-1/4"
Hand Size: 9"
40-yard Dash: 4.57 sec
3-cone Drill: 7.10 sec
20-yard Shuttle: 4.28 sec
225-pound Bench Press: 14 reps
Vertical Leap: 36.5"
Broad Jump: 122"
Wonderlic: ?
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 71 of 340
Kiper's Ranking: 60 of 300
Other Possible Picks: Clive Walford (TE, Miami), Eli Harold (OLB, Virigina), Carl Davis (DT, Iowa), or Henry Anderson (DE, Stanford)
Tweet:
Analysis: Well you could essentially copy and paste my review of the Randall pick and insert it here given that Randall and Collins seem like very similar players so let's go a different route here. The Packers matched the one-year, $2.55 million offer sheet that the Oakland Raiders signed Sean Richardson to, which seems like a ton of money to pay for the 4th safety on the depth chart.  There is a chance that the Packers move Richardson from safety to middle linebacker if he can add 10 lbs to his 6'2" frame to play around 225 lbs.  If that happens, Richardson might actually be the Brandon Chillar-esque hybrid linebacker/defensive back in the Big Okie formation that I foolishly claimed Randall could be.  There is no question that Richardson has the speed to cover running backs/tight ends at his current weight so I presume adding 10 pounds wouldn't change that.  Given that Richardson is the 4th safety on the depth chart for the Packers right now, if they move him to linebacker then the Packers might actually give Rollins a look at safety.  Last year Thompson drafted Baylor cornerback Demetri Goodson, a converted basketball player, in the 7th round.  Rollins is cut from the same cloth given that he was a four-year basketball player and a one-year football player.  Rollins had seven picks last year, which is pretty impressive.  Despite being against 2nd tier NCAA talent in the Mid-American Conference.  It looks like Goodson, Randall and Collins will be battling for playing time as cornerbacks for the next couple years.  If one of the three turns out to be a starter in a couple years then I totally sign-off on the picks.  If all three flame out then Thompson will be forced to add talent at cornerback again in the draft or possible even dip into free agency.


3rd Round (94th): Ty Montgomery, Wide Receiver
Twitter Handle: @TyMontgomery2
School
: Stanford (Pac-12)
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 221 lbs
Arm Length: 31"
Hand Size: 10-1/8"
40-yard Dash: 4.55sec
3-cone Drill: 6.97 sec
20-yard Shuttle: 4.21 sec
225-pound Bench Press: ? reps
Vertical Leap: 40.5"
Broad Jump: 121"
Wonderlic: ?
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 107 of 340
Kiper's Ranking: 126 of 300
Other Possible Picks: Paul Dawson (LB, TCU), La'el Collins (OG, LSU), Trey Flowers (DE, Arkansas), or Tre Jackson (OG, Florida State)
Tweet:
Analysis: When I gave my preview for how Thompson should approach the draft, I said that he should use a late round pick on a return man/running back/slot wide receiver.  There is no doubt that Montgomery fits two of those three characteristics.  This might be a round too early for Montgomery but let's not forget that I felt that way about tight end Richard Rodgers last year and Rodgers turned out to be a pleasant surprise in 2014.  The guys I feel bad for are Jared Abbrederis, Jeff Janis, and Myles White.  We know that Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams will be on The 53 for at least the next three seasons.  Even if the Packers keep six wide receiver, Thompson is going to have to choose between Abbrederis, Janis, and White for the last two spots.  It is nice to see that Montgomery is excited about playing for the Packers, hopefully he is ready to compete with Adams for the3rd wide receiver spot in 2015 despite only being a rookie.  I know Nelson is 6'2" but this still leave the Packers without a really tall wide receiver, which seems borderline mandatory in terms of roster construction in the NFL in 2015.  Thompson continues to buck the trend, let's hope this results in the Packers having a dynamic return game thanks to Montgomery in 2015.


4th Round (129th): Jake Ryan, Linebacker
Twitter Handle: @JakeRyan_47
School
: Michigan (Big "Ten")
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 240 lbs
Arm Length: 31"
Hand Size: 9-3/8"
40-yard Dash: 4.65 sec
3-cone Drill: 7.11 sec
20-yard Shuttle: 4.20 sec
225-pound Bench Press: 20 reps
Vertical Leap: 34.5"
Broad Jump: 120"
Wonderlic: ?
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 137 of 340
Kiper's Ranking: 73 of 300
Other Possible Picks: Brett Hundley (QB, UCLA), Marcus Hardison (DT, Arizona State), Grady Jarrett (DT, Clemson), or David Cobb (RB, Minnesota) 
Tweet:
Analysis: Well looks like the Packers finally have another middle linebacker in the fold, it will be interesting to see how everything shakes out between Sam Barrington, Carl Bradford, and Ryan.  Clearly Barrington and Bradford have a leg up on Ryan since they've been with the organization longer. Long-term, I see Ryan playing inside but the versatility that Ryan brings with being able to play inside or outside could get him on the field in sub-packages sooner rather than later.  In fact a Michigan fan friend of mine thinks that Ryan was miscast last season when he played inside but I am not sure that I agree with that assessment given that Ryan tackles well and has the ability to cover guys down field.  Worst case even if Ryan can get on the field on defense as a rookie, I see his straight line speed making him an immediate special teams contributor.  My only worry is that based on Ryan's college tape, he had trouble shedding blockers, which was the most frustrating part about A.J. Hawk's game.  Given that Ryan is essentially expected to replace Hawk at middle linebacker in 2015, I hope the Packers can work with Ryan to help him shed blockers. For all the heat I've given Hawk in this space, he had a productive career in Green Bay on and especially off the field.  Hawk never lived up to the hype of being the 5th pick in the draft given his lack of game changing plays though, which is why he will always be remembered as the Business HJ.  Luckily for Ryan, being a 4th round pick carries much lower expectations.  Either way, Thompson replaced one long-haired Big "Ten" middle linebacker with another.  It will be interesting to look back in a decade to see how Ryan's career compares to Hawk's.


5th Round (147th): Brett Hundley, QB
Twitter Handle: @BrettHundley17
School
: UCLA (Pac-12)
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 226 lbs
Arm Length: 32-1/8"
Hand Size: 10-1/2"
40-yard Dash: 4.63 sec
3-cone Drill: 6.93 sec
20-yard Shuttle: 3.98 sec
225-pound Bench Press: ? reps
Vertical Leap: 36"
Broad Jump: 120"
Wonderlic: ?
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 142 of 340
Kiper's Ranking: 90 of 300
Other Possible Picks: Jay Ajayi (RB, Boise State), C.J. Uzomah (TE, Auburn), Jesse James (TE, Penn State), or Cameron Artis-Payne (RB, Auburn)
Tweet:
Analysis: With all due respect to recently signed quarterback Matt Blanchard, his days are now officially numbered in Green Bay since Thompson drafted Hundley. That is especially true given that NFL teams are severely restricted in how much time they have with players during official off-season workout programs.  The Packers will have a hard enough time handing out snaps to three quarterbacks, which makes having four in the fold untenable.  The reports on Hundley are that he is an athletic, mobile quarterback that shows flashes of brilliance with long stretches of inconsistent throws.  I thought that the Packers would need to spend a 3rd round pick to get Hundley so even though they had to trade up in the 5th round to get him, this pick seems like a steal.  I get it, even if Hundley develops into a serviceable NFL quarterback, odd are he will be playing elsewhere starting with his second NFL contract.  Thompson has drafted and developed essentially every spot on the roster besides backup quarterback so I think it make sense for him to invest some late-round picks in quarterbacks over the next couple seasons in hopes of either cultivating a trade asset or identifying a guy that can actually play meaningful snaps for the Packers if Rodgers (gulp) gets injured.


6th Round (206th): Aaron Ripkowski, Fullback
Twitter Handle: @AaronRipkowski
School: Oklahoma (Big 12)
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 257 lbs
Arm Length: ?"
Hand Size: ?"
40-yard Dash: 4.69 sec
3-cone Drill: 7.59 sec
20-yard Shuttle: 4.33 sec
225-pound Bench Press: ? reps
Vertical Leap: 33"
Broad Jump: 113"
Wonderlic: ?
Scouts Inc. Ranking: not in top 340
Kiper's Ranking: not in top 300
Other Possible Picks: Amarlo Herrera (ILB, Georgia), Obum Gwacham (DE, Oregon State), Anthony Chickillo (DE, University of Miami), or Kristjan Sokoli
(DE, Univerity of Buffalo)
Tweet
:

Analysis: I find this pick curious given that Thompson recently signed fullback John Kuhn to a one-year contract for 2015.  Spots on The 53 are precious so most teams would think that allocating even one of them to a fullback in the pass-happy NFL in 2015 is questionable, which makes allocating two spots on The 53 to fullbacks untenable.  Thompson has a different approach to roster construction though.  Remember that the Packers actually had three fullbacks (Korey Hall, Quinn Johnson, and John Kuhn) on The 53 when they won Super Bowl XLV.  (LINK)I am on record as saying that when healthy that Kuhn should have a spot on The 53 for the veteran minimum for the next couple years(LINK), which means that Ripkowski will have to show value on special teams to claim a spot on The 53 to open 2015.  Worst case, given how much the NFL is devaluing the fullback positions, I presume that Thompson could pass Ripkowski through waivers to the practice squad to start 2015 with a view to add him to The 53 later in 2015 if the Packers suffer injuries.


6th Round (210th): Christian Ringo, Defensive End
Twitter Handle: @TrynaBeGreat_77
School: University of Louisiana at Lafayette (Sun Belt)
Height: 6'1"
Weight:  277 lbs
Arm Length: ?"
Hand Size: ?"
40-yard Dash: 4.97 sec
3-cone Drill: ? sec
20-yard Shuttle: ? sec
225-pound Bench Press: ? reps
Vertical Leap: ?"
Broad Jump: ?"
Wonderlic: ?
Scouts Inc. Ranking: not in top 340
Kiper's Ranking: not in top 300
Other Possible Picks: see discussion in for Ripkowski given how close this pick was to the last made by Thompson
Tweet:
Analysis: Well the Packers finally added depth along the defensive line, unfortunately it was six rounds too late for my taste.  There is an outside chance that the guys currently on roster can stay healthy for 2015 but given the recent checkered injury history of Datone Jones and B.J. Raji, I would have loved to see Thompson add Malcolm Brown or Eddie Goldman at the end of the first round instead of Damarious Randall.  Instead, Thompson waited till the second of his three picks in the 6th round to add another body along the defensive line.  The scouting report on Ringo is that he is raw but has good agility, quickness, and strength.  I hesitate to get too excited about a 6th round pass rusher because last time I did that I made possibly the most ridiculous statement I've ever made in this space when I said "Mark my words, Elmore is Aaron Kampman 2.0 for the Packers" (source).  Hopefully Ringo can turn some of his athletic promise into actual production.  I would be shocked if that happened in 2015 so much like Ripkowski, Ringo could be a draft and stash guy on the practice squad for 2015.


6th Round (213th): Kennard Backman, Tight End
Twitter Handle: @kback86
School: University of Alabama at Birmingham (Conference USA)
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 258 lbs
Arm Length: ?"
Hand Size: ?"
40-yard Dash: 4.65 sec
3-cone Drill: ?sec
20-yard Shuttle: ?sec
225-pound Bench Press: ?reps
Vertical Leap: ?"
Broad Jump: ?"
Wonderlic: ?
Scouts Inc. Ranking: not in top 340
Kiper's Ranking: not in top 300
Other Possible Picks: see discussion for Ripkowski given how close this pick was to the last two made by Thompson
Tweet:
Analysis: Thompson continues to try to rebuild his special teams unit, which must be why he drafted a guy like Backman instead of a taller tight end.  On the positive side of the equation, Backman ran a 4.65 sec 40-yard dash.  On the negative side of the equation, Backman is only 6'3".  I wish Thompson could have taken a taller tight end with similar speed but that would have cost Thompson a Day 2 pick and that type of player might NOT have been a special teams contributor in 2015 so ultimately I am fine with the pick.  Plus, given that it is the last of his three 6th round picks, how worked up can I really get.  For some reason I see Backman as the most likely candidate of the three guys drafted in the sixth round of the 2015 NFL Draft to actually make The 53 to start 2015.

Well that's a wrap on Thompson's eight-man draft class for the 2015 NFL Draft.  The Packers have a rookie camp that opens next week so check back for my updated thoughts on the eight guys discussed above along with any of the undrafted free agents that turned some heads.