Building The 15 - Dellavedova, Henson and picks for Hill, Smith and a pick with Dekker almost becoming a Buck

Milwaukee Bucks general manager Jon Horst made a three team trade with the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Washington Wizards to basically free up cap space for this off-season at the expense a future first round draft pick.

The Bucks landed point guard George Hill from the Cavs, forward Jason Smith from the Wizards and a future second round draft pick from the Wizards.

The Wizards landed small forward Sam Dekker from the Cavs and a second round draft pick swap with the Cavs for one of their second round picks that the Cavs received in a previous trade.

The Cavs landed guard Matthew Dellavedova from the Bucks, power forward John Henson from the Bucks, a 2021 protected first round draft pick from the Bucks*, and a 2021 second round pick from the Bucks.

The Cavs landed a first round draft pick in name only because the odds that the they actually get a first round draft pick from the Bucks in 2021 are low since the Bucks still owe the Phoenix Suns a protected first round draft pick** from the trade that netted them point guard Eric Bledsoe.  That means that in all likelihood the Bucks will send the Suns their first round draft pick in the 2020 NBA Draft so that means the earliest the Cavs would get the first round draft pick they traded for today is 2022 thanks to the Stephian Rule, which prohibits NBA teams from trading away first round draft picks in consecutive drafts.

The only reason that Horst made this trade is that it will likely clear $18 million off their cap for the 2019-20 NBA season since Hill's contract is for $19 million for the 2019-20 NBA season but only $1 million of that is guaranteed so that means that there is a 99.9% chance that Horst cuts Hill this off-season to free up $18 million in cap space.  The Bucks will need to make that new found salary cap space go as far as possible because four of their five current starters are likely set to become free agents this off-season: Bledsoe (earns $15 million this season and is set to become an unrestricted free agent), guard Malcolm Brogdon (is still on a rookie second round contract and is set to become a restricted free agent), small forward Khris Middleton (holds a $13 million player option for the 2019-20 NBA season that he will most likely decline), and center Brook Lopez (signed for essentially the veteran minimum this season and is set to become an unrestricted free agent).

A ton can change between now and July but the Bucks will likely have to bring back all four players if they want to be competitive for the 2019-20 season since their drafts have been mostly underwhelming in recent years.  If Horst does that, it means that he will effectively be locking in the core of The 15 for the next couple seasons.  I am the highest on Middleton and Brogdon for slightly different reasons.  Middleton because he is the perfect 3-and-D player that compliments The Greek Freak, I honestly think Middleton will end up signing a contract worth ~$30 million annually that is coincidentally more per year than The Greek Freak will make through the 2020-21 NBA season.  Brogdon because he is a quality combo guard that worst case looks be the perfect second unit leader, I think he will end up signing a contract that averages $12 million annually this off-season.

That leaves Bledsoe and Lopez.  I am lukewarm on Bledsoe because he will be 29 years old next season and will look to almost double his annual salary this off-season, which seems too rich to me for a short point guard that is a streaky shooter and defender.  Lopez has completely re-invented his game the last couple years, transforming himself from a true back to the basket center into a stretch five that is shooting almost 40% from deep this season so I hope the Bucks can bring him back for a one-year contract for $7 million or less.

Back to the actual trade at hand, you might be wondering why this trade of a ton of injured players happened in early December.  It turns out that as long as the trade got done by close of business today (12/07/18) then all the players involved in the trade could be moved at the 2019 NBA trade deadline as well so there was clearly some urgency to getting this deal done.

Given that Horst had to attach a first and second round pick to move Dellavedova and Henson, he should have tried to move Tony Snell, a wanna be 3-and-D guy aka homeless man's Kris Middleton, instead of Dellavedova.  I am sure that the Cavs bulked at that because Snell's contract (three years and ~$34.2 million left with the last season a ~$12 million player option that he will no doubt pick-up since he would make so much less on the open market) is more onerous than Dellavedova's contract (two years and ~$19.2 million left) but I would have held the line, especially because if Henson can get back on the court this season then he actually transforms into a potential positive trade asset.

Finally let's not forget that former Bucks general manager John Hammond and Horst were both intimately involved in signing Dellavedova, Henson, and Snell to their contracts so let's settle down on giving Horst too many props for moving bad contracts that he helped hand those players.  Also creating cap space gives the Bucks owners a better chance of staying out of the luxury tax but if they balk at paying luxury tax bills, we have serious issues in Milwaukee given that the Bucks currently have one of the best players in the NBA in The Greek Freak and those same owners just got tax payers to pick up ~$250 million of the ~$550 million that it cost to build the new (horribly named) Fiserv Forum aka the Beer Barrel that opened this season.  I am not saying that every NBA team should pay the luxury tax but given the confluence of events just mentioned, Bucks ownership owes it to the team and the fan base to pay the luxury tax to fill out The 15, if necessary.

We will have plenty of time to breakdown in much more detail what Horst should do next with The 15 but notice that I haven't even made a single mention of the Bucks looking like they landed former Wisconsin Badgers standout Dekker or what Hill can actually give the Bucks this season.  The initial reports were that Dekker was going to the Bucks as a part of this deal but the Wizards jumped into the fray to help reduce their luxury tax burden by taking on Dekker with the Bucks getting a second round pick for taking on the more expensive Smith instead of Dekker.  I honestly see Hill as a poor man's, left-handed version of Bledsoe and Smith is effectively just a warm body.  I hope to be proven wrong but that doesn't give the Bucks much help on the court other than Hill being an instant offense guy off the bench given that he plays horrible defense, shoots less than 40% from deep for his career, and averages just over 11 points a game for his career.  There is no doubt that the next seven months will go a long way towards setting the trajectory of The 15 for the next seven years so make sure to check back in the coming weeks because I plan to break this down from a number of different angles.

* The protections by year are reportedly as follows: 1-14 for 2021, 1-10 for 2022, 1-10 and 25-30 for 2023, 1-8 for 2024, and converts to two second round picks in 2025 if it isn't conveyed earlier.

** The protections by year are reportedly as follows: 1-3 and 17-30 for 2019, 1-7 for 2020, and unprotected for 2021.

Building The 15 - (Another) Plea to Stand Pat at the 2017 NBA Trade Deadline

This is the 8th year (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016) that I've provided NBA Trade Deadline advice to Milwaukee Bucks (nominal) general manager John Hammond.  I used "(nominal)" because Jason Kidd's fingerprints are all over The 15 and the Bucks have their future GM in assistant GM Justin Zanik so while Hammond is still technically in charge, it is hard to determine whether he actually has final say on moves and I haven't even mentioned the trio of guys that bought the Bucks from Herb Kohl.

While the Bucks won their last three games going into the 2017 NBA All-Star break, they dropped seven of their last 11 games and literally limped into the All-Star break after Jabari Parker tore the same ACL for the second time in just three NBA seasons.  I'd like to think that my advice in this column would be the same if Parker were healthy but frankly it changes things slightly now that the Bucks have what looks like a reason to tank just once more before they open their new arena for the 2018-19 NBA season that I will forever refer to as The Beer Barrel.  I say what looks like a reason because the Bucks were struggling before Parker's injury but now they can semi-couch tanking as a result of losing Parker for 12 months.

The financial ramifications of Parker's serious knee injuries could be catastrophic for not only him but frankly the Bucks too.  After Parker missed most of his rookie season in the NBA due to tearing his left ACL in mid-December of 2014, he actually started his second season in the NBA healthy and put up pretty decent numbers given that he returned to the court in less than 12 months following a serious knee injury.  This season Parker's offensive game went to the next level averaging just a nick over 20 points a game while adding a three point shot to his offensive repertoire.  NBA players can sign extensions that start after their rookie contract following their third NBA season but given that Parker will miss more than half of his fourth NBA season recovering from a second tear to his left ACL, it will be hard for the Bucks to commit a max contract before next season because there is no way to know whether Parker will ever be the same player again.  I hate to be too fatalist about Parker's career given that he is still only 21 years old but midway through this season I thought there was a chance he would push for an All-Star appearance in the next couple seasons, now I (sadly) question whether he will ever make an All-Star team.

On a more positive note, the Bucks have two members of The 15 participating this weekend in some of the 2017 NBA All-Star Weekend festivities.  Rookie Malcom Brogdon aka Right Handed Michael Redd is playing in the NBA Rising Stars Game and The Greek Freak is participating in the NBA All-Star game to give the Bucks their first All-Star since the aforementioned Michael Redd played in the 2004 NBA All-Star Game in Los Angeles.

I will do my duty and post fake trades for Hammond/Kidd/Zanik/ownership but unless the Bucks are able to off-load another one of the crap contracts they signed this off-season, I would rather they just stand pat.  Realistically The Greek Freak is the only untouchable on The 15 but despite injury concerns for both, I would classify Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker as virtually untouchable so it would take a very special package to land Middleton or Parker.

As I've said many times in the past, I would hate to see the Bucks part with any future first round picks given that is really their only way of adding transcendent talent to The 15; see Freak, The Greek and Parker, Jabari.  I am even reticent to include a second round draft pick too because although the Bucks still have extra second round picks, given some of the crap contracts the Bucks currently have on The 15, I would much rather see them focus more on drafting and developing instead of overpaying on the free agent market.

NBA trades are mostly about shuffling around expensive contracts in hopes that a change of scenery turns one team's trash into another team's treasure, which is why I wrote an NBA General Manager Buyer's Remorse Day post a couple years ago.  With the 2017 NBA Trade Deadline (Thursday, February 23rd at 2:00 PM CST) rapidly approaching, here are my favorite somewhat plausible trades (least favorite to most favorite) that I put together for Hammond's review with an assist from ESPN's NBA Trade Machine that he could float to other general manager this weekend at the 2017 NBA All-Star Weekend in New Orleans:

#5) Bucks trade Jason Terry (G) to the Atlanta Hawks for a second round pick:

Terry recently said that he wants to play two more seasons in the NBA but not sure he will have that option.  Either way, this trade would bring things full circle for Terry by taking him back to where his NBA career started.  Not sure what Terry brings to the table at this point other than a strong locker room presence for a playoff bound team that might be able to occasionally give you a spark off the bench.  Of the five trades potential trades that I am going to float, I actually think this one has a realistic change of happening but barely registers on the sexy scale.  I see the Hawks looking to do something bigger than a deal like this to help their playoff push so I don't see this deal going down unless the Hawks strike out across the board with all other bigger deals and try to pull this one off right before the trade deadline.

#4) Bucks trade Matthew Dellavedova (G) to the Indiana Pacers for Jeff Teague (G):

Whenever a team is trying to pander to their star that could leave town, they inevitably overpay; see James, LeBron's first rodeo in Cleveland.  Indiana Pacers small forward Paul George can opt-out of his contract at the end of next season and he has yet to commit to the Pacers long-term so word is that the Pacers are willing to overpay to keep George happy.  I've admired Teague for a long time and given that he is an expiring contract, the Pacers get a worse player but more cost certainty in Dellavedova.  I love this deal for the Bucks and hate it for the Pacers so that is why it is the first one floated because Pacers president Larry Bird would be foolish to make this deal.  Then again, desperate times sometimes call for desperate measures.

#3) Bucks trade John Henson (PF/C) to the Phoenix Suns for Brandon Knight (PG):

I wanted to dangle Matthew Dellavedova instead of Henson but even though Knight has struggled this season so much that he is relegated to a reserve role, Dellavedova has had an even worse season so the Bucks need to part with a guy that seems to have a ton of promise but sadly doesn't deliver as much on the promise as much as he should.  I am talking about Henson but that last sentence describes Knight's tenure in Phoenix too so this seems like a perfect trade for both teams.  In hindsight there is no question that Hammond should have taken the Top 5 protected pick instead of MCW when he traded Knight to the Suns.  I see Henson and Knight as slightly distressed assets.  Given that the NBA has a glut of big-men and unless you can shoot a three you are becoming a dinosaur in the league, I would rather see the Bucks take a flier on Knight regaining his 2013 through 2015 form than hold onto Henson.

#2) Bucks trade Greg Monroe (C) and Jason Terry (G) to the Orlando Magic for Nikola Vucevic (C) and Mario Hezonja (SG):

I am obligated to float at least one Greg Monroe trade.  Initially I thought about Monroe to the Denver Nuggets for power forward Kenneth Faried.  I've long been a fan of the Manimal and it seems like the Nuggets are always looking to move him but don't think the potential of only a few months of Monroe is enough for Manimal even though Monroe has had a nice offensive resurgence this season after a disappointing first season in Milwaukee.  There are very few subpar GM's left in the NBA but thankfully Rob Hennigan is one of them and still in charge of the Magic.  Sure the Magic got the better end of the J.J. Redick/Tobias Harris deal but this is the same guy that in the last 12 months turned Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova, and Domantas Sabonis into a couple months of Serge Ibaka only to flip Ibaka to the Toronto Raptors for Terrence Ross and a late first round pick in the 2017 NBA Draft.  Pretty easy to say you'd rather have Oladipo/Sabonis than Ross/2017 late first rounder.  While Vucevic seems like the headliner of the deal for the Bucks given that he is a quality front court player, I actually still think Hezonja is a superstar in the making despite struggling so far in his NBA career.  While Monroe has developed into a quality offense first guy to bring off the bench at center, there is a chance that Hezonja develops into a starting shooting guard or worst case a heat check guy to bring off the bench in crunch time.  Given what I said earlier about the NBA having a glut of quality big guys and skewing towards shooting as many three as possible, I would much rather have an offense first shooting guard than an offense first center.

#1) Bucks trade Khris Middleton (SG/SF) and Jason Terry (PG/SG) to the Boston Celtics for Amir Johnson (C), Jaylen Brown (SF), and the Brooklyn Nets' 2018 first round pick:

I know this is going to make Celtics fans head explode because they always overvalue their guys but frankly the Celtics get more long-term cost certainty at the expensive of a couple super interesting lottery tickets in this deal, which is exactly what they need given all the potential flux that their roster is going to go through in the next 18 months.  Middleton is on a criminally team friendly NBA contract given that he is in the second year of a five-year, $70 million contract that actually pays him less each season starting next season.  The one caveat to that is Middleton owns a player option on the last season but if Middleton is playing so well that he is going to opt-out to sign a big money deal, better to have him plant some roots in Boston ahead of signing that extension.  While Middleton is not truly a superstar, he is a prototypical 3-and-D guy.  Besides having a Top 10 player on your team, the most valuable thing in the NBA right now is having as many 3-and-D guys as possible.  Speaking of 3-and-D guys, Brown is the wildcard.  Right now Brown is shooting 30% from three but take that with a grain of salt because he is a 20-year old NBA rookie.  Some thought the Celtics reached for Brown with the 3rd pick in the 2016 NBA Draft but there is a chance that he becomes one of the best defenders in the NBA in a couple seasons, which is the perfect guy to pair with The Greek Freak and Parker.  If Brown can develop a long-distance shot, the Celtics will be kicking themselves for trading him away but there is no guarantee that Brown can add that dimension to his game.  There is a chance that Tony Snell can give the Bucks 75% of Middleton's production at 75% of Middleton's price so that allows the Bucks to proactively push back their window of being a real Eastern Conference contender a season or two, which coincides perfectly with the opening of The Beer Barrel.  Finally, the Celtics have to cash in some of their draft picks because there are only 15 players allowed on NBA roster and it feels like they have 15 picks in the next three NBA Drafts.  Sure the 2018 Brooklyn Nets could be a Top 3 pick but a Middleton in the hand is definitely better than a Brown and a bird in the bush given that the Celtics are making a legitimate run at winning the Eastern conference this season.

If Hammond actually makes another move before the 2017 NBA Trade Deadline, which I am on records as hoping he doesn't, check back for full coverage in this space.  In the meantime, enjoy watching Right Handed Michael Redd and The Greek Freak in the 2017 NBA All-Star Weekend festivities in New Orleans.

Building The 15 - The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly 1.0 for 2015-16 Off-Season

It has been quite a busy off-season for Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond.  Given the young, high-end talent on The 15, I actually thought Hammond would have a ho-hum off-season where he resigned restricted shoot guard/small forward Khris Middleton to a large contract, uses both of his draft picks in the 2015 NBA Draft, and chased big name free agents but only ended up with one or two lesser names.  Boy was I wrong.

All told, Hammond moved out $12.15 million in salaries for next season when he traded power forward Ersan Ilyasova ($7.9 million) to the Detroit Pistons for the non-guaranteed expiring contracts of small forward Caron Butler ($4.5 million) and small forward/power forward Shawne Williams ($1.3 million) and small forward/power forward Jared Dudley ($4.25 million) to the Washington Wizards for a future second round draft pick.  Unfortunately the Bucks added $6.6 million on the night of the 2015 NBA Draft when Hammond traded his 2015 2nd round pick (46th overall) and the L.A. Clippers lottery protected 2017 first round pick to the Toronto Raptors for point guard Greivis Vasquez.  All of that was done to give the Bucks enough salary cap space to try to chase a big-name free agent but Hammond really only saved $5.55 million in salary for next season given Vasquez's expensive salary.  Honestly, I would have just kept Dudley, Ilyasova, and the draft picks they moved for Vasquez instead of trading for Vasquez. The only draft pick the Bucks had in the 2015 NBA Draft was the 17th pick, which they used to draft freshman shooting guard Rashad Vaughn.

Although the Bucks have too many players on The 15 right now, they have six potential free agents after this season: two restricted in power forward/center John Henson and center Miles Plumlee along with four unrestricted in point guard Jared Bayless, shooting guard O.J. Mayo, center Zaza Pachulia, and point guard Greivis Vasquez.  As a result, the Bucks could really use those draft picks, especially if they used one of them on a Euro-draft-and-stash guy.  It seemed that the salary cap space created was going to be all for not given that the Bucks never lure big-name free agents so Hammond signed shooting guard/small forward Khris Middleton to a five-year, $70 million contract, which is the exact same contract that former Buck combo guard Brandon Knight signed with the Phoenix Suns.

If Hammond was being honest with himself he had to try but he always knew that he was never going to be able to lure power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, center Marc Gasol, center DeAndre Jordan, or center Brook Lopez.  With all of that long build-up out of the way, I hope that everyone is sitting down because the Bucks actually lured a big-name free agent when they signed former Detroit Pistons center Greg Monroe to a three-year, $50 million contract.

You can checkout my rankings of The 15 in the sidebar below and although I've now essentially covered every transaction that Hammond made so far this off-season, I still think it makes sense to categorize each of those six moves in The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.  So without further adu, here are my thoughts:

The Good

The Middleton and Monroe contracts mean the Bucks potentially committed ~$21 million a year to those two players (Middleton averages $14 million and Monroe averages $16.67 million) for the next three seasons.  I say potentially as I mentioned above because the third year of Monroe's contract is a player option.  According to a SI.com's Will Law's advanced metric named "Free Agent Quotient, Monroe was the 8th most attractive free agent this off-season and projects as a "Bona fide All-Star" while Middleton was the 23rd most attractive free agent and projects to be an "Above -average starter.  While Law's metric is interesting, if that is NOT easy to wrap your mind around then may be ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton's three-year projections will help determine how much value the Bucks Middleton and Monroe: Monroe is "worth" $69 million and Middleton is "worth" $62 million so the Bucks extracted ~$40 million of surplus value out of those deals given they are on the hook for $91 million for both for the next three seasons.

The 15

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF/PF) 2. Jabari Parker (SF/PF) 3. Greg Monroe (PF/C) 4. Khris Middleton (SG/SF) 5. John Henson (PF/C) 6. Michael Carter-Williams (PG) 7. O.J. Mayo (SG) 8. Rashad Vaughn (SG) 9. Greivis Vasquez (PG) 10. Damien Inglis (SF) 11. Tyler Ennis (PG) 12. Zaza Pachulia (C) 13. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG) 14. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF) 15. Miles Plumlee (C) 16. Jorge Gutierrez (PG) 17. Shawne Williams (SF/PF) 18. Caron Butler (SF)

If Monroe struggles, I am sure that he will opt-in to the third year of his contract to get paid much like fellow former Georgetown Hoya center Roy Hibbert did this off-season.  If Monroe thrives, I could see him opting out to sign a mega-extension with the Bucks or another NBA team given that he will only be 27 years old and the salary cap is projected to be skyrocket over the next two seasons since it is projected to be $67 million this season, $90 million in 2016-17, and $108 million in 2017-18.  As crazy as it sounds, Monroe could potentially double his salary on his next contract extension.  Either way, the Bucks were deemed a more attractive option by Monroe than the L.A. Lakers and New York Knicks, which makes complete on-the-court sense.  Even more interesting than "outbidding" the Lakers and Knicks is what a perfect fit Monroe seems to be for the Bucks given his ability to score down low and grab rebounds, which are two things the Bucks desperately needed last season.  Sure Monroe is NOT a great defender but he is a long, willing defender.  With Monroe in the fold the Bucks project to have an impressive starting five of MCW at point guard, Middleton at shooting guard, The Greek Freak at small forward, Jabari Parker at power forward, and Monroe at center.  If Parker and Monroe struggle too much defensively, I could see the Bucks giving John Henson minutes alongside Monroe because both guys are quality rebounders and each guy's strength (scoring for Monroe and defense for Henson) off-sets each of their weaknesses (defense for Monroe and offense for Henson).

Assuming last season was NOT an aberration, Middleton's salary could be very palatable despite the fact that he will earn $14 million a year given that he is the prototypical 3-and-D player, which seems to be the most important NBA player type right now outside of all-around superstar.  If Middleton suffers a serious injury, the Bucks and Middleton will have a very uncomfortable five-year marriage but I would be really surprised if Middleton's contract year push last year is the ceiling of his performance so as long as he stays healthy, the Bucks will NOT regret the move.  Plus if you look around at the other 3-and-D free agents that signed deals this off-season, they signed similar contracts to Middleton: DeMarre Carroll signed a four-year, $60 million deal with the Toronto Raptors and Tobias Harris signed a four-year, $64 million contract with the Orlando Magic.  If Middleton continues to shoot 40% or better from behind the three-point arc, I could actually see him averaging 20 points a game at least once over the next couple seasons if the Bucks get quality play out of The Greek Freak, Jabari Parker, and Monroe because that would make Middleton one of the most lethal fourth bananas in the NBA.  Given that the salary cap is scheduled to almost double by the 2017-18 NBA season, there is a chance that Middleton's contract looks like the Bucks got him for the mid-level exception by the third season.

Switching gears, the more I noodle on the Vaughn pick, the more I am open to the upside of the decision despite the fact that FiveThirtyEight has Vaughn ranked as the 23rd best player in the 2015 NBA Draft and Pelton has Vaughn ranked as the 48th best player in the 2015 NBA Draft based on projected wins above replacement for his first five years in the NBA.  Vaughn is a long, skilled shooter and one of the youngest players in the 2015 NBA Draft.  Worst case scenario, I see Vaughn becoming a heat-check guy off the bench for the Bucks by his second or third season in the NBA.  Best case scenario, the Bucks drafted Ray Allen 2.0.  I see Vaughn settling somewhere in between but on the off-chance he fulfills his potential upside by his second or third NBA season, he could be the 7th best player on The 15.

The Bad

The Ilyasova trade seems like the kind of deal that would be on the table at the NBA Trade Deadline, which is why I question the motives for why Hammond made the move before the NBA Draft.  What is even more puzzling to me is how Hammond was NOT even able to snag a future second round pick from the Pistons as a part of the deal.  This trade looks even worse given that the Bucks added salary just a few days later in the Vasquez trade.

The Dudley trade will be felt more off the court than on the court.  Sure Dudley is a versatile player given that he can guard essentially every position on the court beside point guard and super tall centers but Dudley's real value came via his positive locker room presence.  We are just 18 months removed from Gary Neal and Larry Sanders getting in a fight in the locker room.  That is the kind of thing that would never happen in a locker room that included Dudley.  With Dudley no longer around, the four guys set to become unrestricted free agents (Bayless, Mayo, Pachulia, and Vasquez) after this season will be expected to be the veteran voices in the locker room too, which will make for an interesting locker room dynamic.

The Ugly

I almost put the Dudley trade in this category but given that the Vasquez trade is possibly the worst trade of Hammond's tenure, I wanted to make sure that The Ugly is reserved solely for that horrible trade.  The Bucks traded away Ilyasova and Dudley in separate deals but I like both of those guys more than Vasquez.  More importantly, I hate small market teams like the Bucks giving away lottery tickets aka draft picks.  Even late first round picks are valuable commodities for NBA teams because if they can land a rotational player, it gives NBA teams a super cheap commodity.

If the Bucks kept the 46th pick, they could have landed a useful player for next season (Norman Powell, Dakari Johnson, or Tyler Harvey) or a Euro-draft-and-stash guy (Arturas Gudaitis, Marcus Eriksson, Satnam Singh Bhamara, Nikola Radicevic, Dimitrios Agravanis, or Luka Mitrovic).  If the Bucks kept the L.A. Clippers lottery protected 2017 first round pick, they again would have a chance to add another cost-effective commodity to The 15.

I continue to lobby Hammond to leave a few spots open on The 15 so that he can either sign non-guaranteed deals to undrafted free agents or bottom-feed the free agent market.  In terms of bottom feeding, if Hammond had spots on The 15, look at the some of the cost-effective player he could have added: three-year, $18 million contract the Memphis Grizzles signed with power forward Brandan Wright; two-year, $10 million contract the Toronto Raptors signed with power forward Bismack Biyombo; four-year, $16 million contract the New York Knicks signed with center Kyle O'Quinn as a part of a sign-and-trade with the Orlando Magic; or four-year, $33 million contract the Sacramento Kings signed with power forward/center Kosta Koufos.  The most earth shattering thing about two of the deals just discussed are that the Knicks and Kings actually made a prudent free agent move after questionable moves earlier in the off-season.

Finally, backup point guards are a dime a dozen.  The Bucks cut Nate Wolters last season to add power forward Kenyon Martin, I hated that move at the time and despise it now because Martin was tits on a bull for the Bucks and if Wolters was still on The 15, Hammond might NOT have traded for Vasquez.  Leaving Wolters aside, you can add guys like Vasquez via free agency for much less than $6 million a year.  Last year the Bucks did just that when they signed Jerryd Bayless to a two-year, $6 million deal.  I didn't love that signing but at least it did NOT cost the Bucks two draft picks.  This off-season, the aforementioned Gary Neal signed a one-year, $2.1 million contract with the Washington Wizards.  The Bayless and Neal deals are two of many that are much better allocation of salary cap space than Vasquez for $6 million.

Unless Hammond makes a trade, The 15 is essentially set for next season.  On paper I would say the Bucks are much better off on the top-end of The 15 now then they were at the start of the off-season but only time will tell whether that translates to on-court performance.  Our first look will be summer league.  All eyes will be on "rookie" small forward Damien Inglis (missed all of last season due to injury) and actual rookie Vaughn.

Building The 15 - 2015 Free Agent Shopping Guide for Hammond

Milwaukee Bucks general manager was active this off-season given that he already completed two trades.  I made no bones about it that I disliked the decision to trade small forward/power forward Ersan Ilyasova to the Detroit Pistons for expiring contracts and absolutely hated that Hammond traded two draft picks to the Toronto Raptors for backup point guard Greivis Vasquez.

The two trades seem to be inconsistent given that Hammond shipped out Ilyasova's $7.9 million salary for this season for non-guaranteed contracts to presumably give him enough cap space to try to lure in an expensive free agent but then Hammond swallowed up almost all of that cap space when he traded for Vasquez's bloated $6.6 million salary for next season.

Hammond drafted UNLV freshman shooting guard Rashad Vaughn with the 17th pick in the 2015 NBA Draft.  All told, assuming that Hammond resigns restricted free agent shooting guard/small forward Khris Middleton and that small forward/power forward Jared Dudley does NOT exercise his early termination option, Hammond will have 18 players under contract for the 2015-16 NBA season even though he only actually has 15 roster spots.

Here is how the depth chart currently shakes out:
- Point Guard: Michael Carter-Williams, Jerryd Bayless, Greivis Vasquez, Tyler Ennis, and Jorge Gutierrez
- Shooting Guard: Khris Middleton, O.J. Mayo, and Rashad Vaughn
- Small Forward: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damien Inglis, and Caron Butler
- Power Forward: Jabari Parker, Jared Dudley, Johnny O'Bryant III, and Shawne Williams
- Center: John Henson, Zaza Pachulia, and Miles Plumlee

Hammond has some wiggle room since at least three of the contracts (Gutierrez, Butler, and Williams) are NOT guaranteed but that also means that Hammond cannot sign more than one or possibly two free agents without trading away players.

Hammond has $12 million in salary cap space for the 2015-16 season but most, if NOT all of that, will be taken up Middleton if the Bucks are able to retain his services.  That means the Bucks will be left with almost no money to shop on the free agent market.  Hammond will most likely create $7 million in salary cap space by cutting Butler, Gutierrez, and Williams.

For better or worse even if Middleton does NOT resign with the Bucks they are all set at point guard, shooting guard, and small forward.  The same could be argued for power forward or center but there is a ton of potential turnover at those spots over the next couple season and those are the two positions of strength in free agency this off-season so the Bucks need to at least take a look.

At power forward there are some interesting expensive veterans: LaMarcus Aldridge, Tim Duncan, Kevin Love, Paul Milsap, and David West.  The same goes for center too: Omer Asik, Tyson Chandler, Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, Brook Lopez, Greg Monroe, and Amar'e Stoudemire.  There are some really enticing restricted free agent options at center too in Bismack Biyombo and Enes Kanter.

There are some more cost effective power forwards (e.g. Tyler Hansbrough and Brandan Wright) and centers (e.g. Cole Aldrich, Robin Lopez, and Greg Stiemsma) about to hit the free agent market but unless Hammond is considering signing Wright, this is NOT the season to make a move on guys like that given how precious roster spots on The 15 are for the 2015-16 season.  Hammond might beed to fill out The 15 with cost-effective backups next off-season given that the Bucks have two restricted free agents (Henson and Pumlee) and four unrestricted (Bayless, Mayo, Pachulia, and Vasquez).  Hammond should always try to balance the short-term and long-term needs of The 15, unfortunately this off-season he painted himself in a corner.

It would be easy to say that it makes sense to break the bank on a couple of sexy names listed above but a number of those free agents will NOT even consider Milwaukee (Aldridge, Duncan, Gasol, and Love) so that already narrows the field.  Of the those free agents that would realistically consider the Bucks, the three most intriguing are DeAndre Jordan, Brook Lopez, and Greg Monroe.  I am not sure if it is the pull of The Greek Freak and Parker but there are some quality players that publicly said they have the Bucks on the short list of teams that they are willing to meet with. Jordan is reportedly only meeting with four teams (Bucks, Clippers, Lakers, and Mavericks) and Monroe is reportedly only meeting with five teams (Bucks, Celtics, Lakers, Knicks, and Trailblazers).

In terms of realistic moves that Hammond could make, I would offer the max to Jordan, Lopez, or Monroe.  I would even be okay with a sign-and-trade for any of those guys as long as it does NOT involve giving up more than one future first round pick or any of the top-end talent on The 15 (The Greek Freak, Parker, or Henson).  The odds that any of the three actually come to Milwaukee are slim but it is fun to speculate because a stud center would round out The 15 nicely for the Bucks for the next couple seasons.  Plus, it will help me get over missing out on Dakari Johnson (C, Kentucky) as a part of the horrific 2015 draft day trade the Raptors that netted the Bucks an overpaid backup point guard in Vasquez.

If Hammond misses out on all of the guys above, I will given my advice for how he could bottom feed in mid-to-late July.  In the mean time, buckle up because rumors are going to start flying daily for the next two weeks until players actually start signing with teams on July 9th.  Whatever happens, make sure to check back for full coverage in this space in mid-July.

Building The 15 - 2015 Milwaukee Bucks Draft Pick

This was my fifth year doing a "mock" first round NBA Draft (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015) and my sixth year reviewing Milwaukee Bucks general manger John Hammond's performance in the actual draft (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014).

Usually there are a ton of trades in the first round of the NBA Draft, which makes it really hard to marry pick, player, and team correctly.  True to form, there were a ton of trades in the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft.  I only nailed players and team for two out of 30 in the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft: Karl-Anthony Towns first overall to the Minnesota Timberwolves and Jerian Grant (PG/SG, Notre Dame) 19th over all the Washington Wizards.  The Wizards ultimately traded Grant, which just illustrates my point above about how hard it is to marry pick, player, and team correctly.

Although that seems like I did a horrible job, I correctly "predicted" 26 out of 30 players* that went in the first round of the draft.  I put "predicted" in quotes because remember that my mock first round draft is what I would do if I was each team's general manager and had to make each pick without making a trade.  Of the four other guys** that I thought should go in the first round that were NOT taken in the first round, all all of them were drafted by the 36th pick.  That means I am mostly in agreement with current NBA decision makers about what guys should have been drafted by the early part of the second round of the 2015 NBA Draft.  That and the draft is covered so well that it is becoming hard to identify true diamonds in the rough.

I only have to breakdown one pick because Hammond made the worst trade of his tenure, which is really saying something since he made a number of questionable moves during his tenure.  I will give you more detailed thoughts on the trade once I cover the player that Hammond actually drafted in the 2015 NBA Draft.  With out further adu, are my thoughts on the one player that Hammond actually drafted that will be on The 15 next season:

1st Round (17th Overall): Rashad ("Greg") Vaughn
Position: Shooting Guard
Age: 18
Birth date: August 16, 1996
Birthplace: Golden Valley, MN
School: UNLV
Class: Freshman
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 199 lbs
Reach: 8'5"
Wingspan: 6'6"
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Strong/athletic wing, potential scoring machine, already possess a NBA body, attacks the basket, and solid perimeter shooter

Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Lacks elite length, inconsistent from deep, and not particularly efficient scorer

Other Possible Picks: Sam Dekker (SF, Wisconsin), Bobby Portis (PF, Arkansas), Jerian Grant (PG/SG, Notre Dame), or Delon Wright (PG/SG, Utah)

Twitter: @ShowtimeMr1
Tweets:

This sets up perfect. @bucks should end up w/either @dekker or @BPortistime w/the 17th pick in #2015nbadraft #fearthedeer #BucksDraft

— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 26, 2015

Bummed about passing on @dekker & @BPortistime but like the offensive upside of @ShowtimeMr1 #BucksDraft #2015nbadraft

— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 26, 2015

Analysis: This feels like a domestic Greek Freak-esque pick by Hammond, which is exactly what he needs to do with draft picks that he actually holds onto instead of foolishly trading them away.  There is no doubt that there are a couple other guys that were available when the Bucks were on the clock that were either more NBA ready (Portis, Grant, or Wright) or would appease the Bucks fans base in the short-term (Dekker) but much like Hammond did in 2013, he swung for the fences.

In 2013 Hammond could have taken more of a sure thing (Tony Snell or Mason Plumlee) but he rolled the dice on the youngest player in the 2013 NBA Draft and got The Greek Freak.  After just two seasons The Greek Freak looks like a franchise cornerstone and future All-Star.  Trust me, I am under no delusions that Vaughn will be as good as The Greek Freak, I just draw the comparison because Vaughn is one of the youngest players in the 2015 NBA Draft much like The Greek Freak was in 2013.  Vaughn was the 19th highest rated recruit in 2014 out of high school and lived up to that hype at UNLV averaging 17.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game over 23 games before a knee injury ended his freshman season.

Vaughn was very impressive in his pre-draft workouts, which helped him show NBA teams that his knee is fully healed.  While shooting 38% from three and 69% from the free throw line his freshman year in college is NOT great, I oddly only see those numbers improving in the NBA given that Vaughn will be the 3rd or 4th shooting option on the floor for the Bucks the next couples seasons as opposed to the focal point of the offense like he was at UNLV.


2nd Round (46th Overall): Norman Powell (SG, UCLA)
Other Possible Picks: Dakari Johnson (C, Kentucky), Michael Frazier III (SG, Florida), Alan Williams (PF, UC Santa Barbara), or Christian Wood (PF, UNLV)
Tweet:

Absolutely hate @bucks trade of 46th pick in #2015nbadraft & @LAClippers 2017 1st round pick to @Raptors for @greivisvasquez #BucksDraft

— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 26, 2015

Analysis: Despite the fact that Hammond already drafted a shooting guard when he took Vaughn with the 17th pick, I would have been much happier if he just kept Powell and called it a day.  Instead Hammond traded the 46th pick in the 2015 NBA Draft that he used to draft Powell for the Toronto Raptors and a 2017 lottery protected first round pick L.A. Clipper pick that the Bucks got in the Jared Dudley trade to the Raptors for backup point guard Greivis Vasquez.  If Hammond traded just the 46th pick for Vasquez I would have disliked this trade.  The fact that Hammond somehow included a future first round pick makes this trade an absolute heist for the Raptors.

For those unaware of much about Vasquez, he is a 6'6" backup point guard that played for four NBA teams in his five NBA seasons.  I hate this trade for so many reasons that it is going to tough to boil this down to a few coherent sentences without breaking my computer. I get that the Bucks are targeting long players so Vasquez fits the bill in that department but Vasquez is a below average defender so he does NOT even fit into the system that the Bucks are trying to play.  The biggest problem with the trade is that it cost the Bucks two cheap long-term assets for an expensive short-term asset.  Vasquez is only signed through this upcoming season and is owed $6.6 million.

If the Bucks did NOT have any backup-up point guards on The 15 then you might be able to make a case that Vasquez at least fills a need but the Bucks already have Jerryd Bayless, Tyler Ennis, and Jorge Gutierrez on The 15 so that means the Bucks already had three nice backup point guard options.  Vasquez is a career 36% three-point shooter so it is NOT even like they got a deadly long-distance threat.  If the NBA is moving towards having all 3-and-D players, Vasquez is step back NOT forward.

Obviously I would have held onto the two draft picks if I ran the Bucks.  It is way too early to speculate on a specific player that the Bucks will get in the first rounder from the Clippers in the 2017 NBA Draft.  The Clippers traded away their 2015 first rounder to the Boston Celtics to get Doc Rivers as their coach.  The Celtics took R.J. Hunter (PG/SG, Georgia State) with the pick.  There is no guarantee that a player like Hunter will be there that late in the first round of the 2017 NBA Draft but there is no question that Hunter is a more valuable long-term, cost-effective asset than Vasquez.

Turning to the 46th pick. There are a couple of guys that would have fell to the Bucks that would have been very interesting long-term assets according to FiveThirtyEight's Projected Top 50 Players in the 2015 NBA Draft.  Feel free to read the article to get more a flavor for why the Bucks missed out on some quality players that I thought Hammond should have targeted in the second round of the 2015 NBA Draft.  Some of the guys the Bucks could still sign as undrafted free agents (Cliff Alexander, Christian Wood, and Michael Frazier III) if the Bucks clear some spots on The 15 but what really bothers me is that the Bucks missed out on a useful backup center that has an outside chance of blossoming into a starter down the road in Dakari Johnson (C, Kentucky).  Let's leave Karl-Anthony Towns out of this because he went 1st overall to the Timberwolves and FiveThirtyEight projects him as the best player in the draft.  Three other guys from Kentucky were drafted in the lottery (Devin Booker, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Trey Lyles) yet FiveThirtyEight has Johnson projected to be more productive in the NBA than all three of those guys.  Unfortunately Hammond gave away his chance to draft Johnson for an expensive backup point guard in his late 20's.

NBA Free Agency starts in less than a week so make sure to check back ahead of that for my updated look at The 15 as well as my advice for Hammond for how to approach free agency since we know he has foolishly spent money like a drunken sailor in the past so he can use some sound advice.

Footnotes:
* = I "missed" on Terry Rozier (PG, Lousiville) went 16th to the Celtics, Jarell Martin (PF, LSU) went 25th to the Grizzlies, Larry Nance Jr. (PF, Wyoming) went 28th to the Lakers, and Chris McCullough (PF, Syracuse) went 29th the Nets.

** = Guillermo Hernangomez (C, Spain) rated 26th but went 35th to the 76ers, Montrezl Harrell (PF, Louisville) rated 27th but went 32nd to the Rockets, Rakeem Christmas (C, Syracuse) rated 29th but went 36th to the Timberwolves, and Anthong Brown (SG/SF, Stanford) rated 30th but went 34th to the Lakers.

Building The 15 - 2015 First Round NBA Mock Draft

I honestly believe that NBA general managers should take the best player available irrespective of position, which means that my first round mock draft is essentially my Top 30 rankings of the players available in the 2015 NBA Draft.  Much like I said the last four years (2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014) in my first round mock draft, undoubtedly there will be a ton of trades deeming this "mock" draft essentially useless but I want to get on record what I think each general manager should do with each pick if they kept it:

1. Minnesota Timberwolves - Karl-Anthony Towns (C, 6'11", 250 lbs, Kentucky, 19 years old)

2. Los Angeles Lakers - Jahlil Okafor (C, 6'11", 275 lbs, Duke, 19 years old)

3. Philadelphia 76ers - Kristaps Porzingis (PF, 7'2", 230 lbs, Latvia, 19 years old)

4. New York Knicks - D'Angelo Russell (PG/SG, 6'5", 193 lbs, Ohio State, 19 years old)

5. Orlando Magic - Justise Winslow (SF, 6'6", 222 lbs, Duke, 19 years old)

6. Sacramento Kings - Emmanuel Mudiay (PG, 6'5", 196 lbs, China, 19 years old)

7. Denver Nuggets - Mario Hezonja (SF, 6'7", 200 lbs, Croatia, 20 years old)

8. Detroit Pistons - Frank Kaminsky (C, 7'1", 231 lbs, Wisconsin, 22 years old)

9. Charlotte Hornets - Devin Booker (SG, 6'6", 206 lbs, Kentucky, 18 years old)

10. Miami Heat - Myles Turner (PF, 6'11", 239 lbs, Texas, 19 years old)

11. Indiana Pacers - Willie Cauley-Stein (C, 7'1", 242 lbs, Kentucky, 21 years old)

12. Utah Jazz - Sam Dekker (SF, 6'9", 219 lbs, Wisconsin, 21 years old)

13. Phoenix Suns - Stanley Johnson (SF, 6'6", 242 lbs, Arizona, 19 years old)

14. Oklahoma City Thunder - Bobby Portis (PF, 6'11", 246 lbs, Arkansas, 20 years old)

15. Atlanta Hawks (From Brooklyn) - Trey Lyles (PF, 6'10", 242 lbs, Kentucky, 19 years old)

16. Boston Celtics - Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (SF, 6'7", 211 lbs, Arizona, 20 years old)

17. Milwaukee Bucks - Delon Wright (PG/SG, 6'6", 181 lbs, Utah, 23 years old)

18. Houston Rockets (From New Orleans) - Cameron Payne (PG, 6'2", 183 lbs, Murray State, 20 years old)

19. Washington Wizards - Jerian Grant (PG/SG, 6'4", 198 lbs, Notre Dame, 22 years old)

20. Toronto Raptors - Rashad Vaughn (SG, 6'5", 199 lbs, UNLV, 18 years old)

21. Dallas Mavericks - R.J. Hunter (SG, 6'6", 185 lbs, Georgia State, 21 years old)

22. Chicago Bulls - Kevon Looney (PF, 6'9", 222 lbs, UCLA, 19 years old)

23. Portland Trail Blazers - Kelly Oubre (SF, 6'7", 203 lbs, Kansas, 19 years old)

24. Cleveland Cavaliers - Tyus Jones (PG, 6'2", 185 lbs, Duke, 19 years old)

25. Memphis Grizzlies - Justin Anderson (SF, 6'6", 231 lbs, Virginia, 21 years old)

26. San Antonio Spurs - Guillermo Hernangomez (C, 6'11", 255 lbs, Spain, 20 years old)

27. Los Angeles Lakers (From Houston) - Montrezl Harrell (PF, 6'8", 253 lbs, Louisville, 21 years old)

28. Boston Celtics (From L.A. Clippers) - Nikola Milutinov (C, 6'11", 220 lbs, Serbia, 20 years old)

29. Brooklyn Nets (From Atlanta) - Rakeem Christmas (C, 6'10", 243 lbs, Syracuse, 23 years old)

30. Golden State Warriors - Anthony Brown (SG/SF, 6'7", 211 lbs, Stanford, 22 years old)

Sorry that I was NOT able to add details of why I took each of the guys above but work and Lil' Cheesehead Sports Nut (again) got in the way.  Make sure to check back later tonight on Twitter @CheeseheadSN and tomorrow in this space for my thoughts on how Hammond navigated the 2015 NBA Draft for the Bucks.

Building The 15 - 2013 NBA Draft First Round Preview for John Hammond

As I said in my second round preview for the Milwaukee Bucks, the NBA Draft is covered so well that I am pretty confident the first 14 players that will come off the board in the first round of the 2014 NBA Draft (in some order) are: Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, Kristaps Porzingis, D'Angelo Russell, Justise Winslow, Emmanuel Mudiay, Mario Hezonja, Devin Booker, Frank Kaminsky, Myles Turner, Willie Cauley-Stein, Sam Dekker, Stanley Johnson, and Kelly Oubre.

I am fine with the Bucks drafting pretty much any of the 14 players mentioned above with the exception of Oubre.  I have a particularly strong affinity for the guys in the Top 5 (Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, Kristaps Porzingis, D'Angelo Russell, and Justise Winslow) because everyone besides Porzingis looks like a borderline lock to become studs in the NBA.  There is zero chance any of those guys will be available unless the Bucks trade-up, which I advise against because they would have to trade either The Greek Freak or Jabari Parker to make that happen.

I also have a particular affinity for the two Wisconsin guys (Kaminsky and Dekker) and both would actually fit in well on The 15 for the Bucks.  Assuming they are off the board, here are the 10 guys (most to least) that Hammond and Company should strongly consider if they are available with the 17th pick in the 2015 NBA Draft:

Bobby Portis (PF, 6'11", 246 lbs, Arkansas, 20 years old) - The 2014-15 SEC Player of the Year is my official reasonable draft crush given his length and outside chance to become Al Horford 2.0.

Jerian Grant (PG/SG, 6'4", 198 lbs, Notre Dame, 22 years old) - Although Grant is NOT quite as long as other guards that I am about to discuss, his ability to play both back court positions is too enticing to pass up.

Delon Wright (PG/SG, 6'6", 181 lbs, Utah, 23 years old) - I know this will get me killed in some NBA circles but I am not at all turned off by the fact that Wright is already 23.  Sure there are guys that are four years younger but I see Wright as a starter next season while some of the younger guys will need a couple seasons before they are ready for significant minutes so the Bucks would get a useful asset that could play at a high level in the NBA for 10 to 12 years.

Trey Lyles (PF, 6'10", 242 lbs, Kentucky, 19 years old) - The advanced stats are stacked against Lyles but some of that might have to do with Lyles playing out of position for such a stacked Kentucky team.

Rashad Vaughn (SG, 6'5", 199 lbs, UNLV, 18 years old) - A knee injury cut Vaughn's season short.  Reports from recent pre-draft workouts were so positive that teams are no longer worried about his knee so his draft stock is on the rise.

Kevon Looney (PF, 6'9", 222 lbs, UCLA, 19 years old) - I have visions of Looney as a rich man's Luc Richard Mbah a Moute aka The Prince.  I say rich man's The Price because Looney is much more polished offensively than The Price.  Long time readers of this space know my affinity for The Prince so assuming Looney is healthy, there is an outside chance in a couple seasons that he becomes a nice mix of The Price and Jared Dudley so yes, I like Looney's upside.

R.J. Hunter (SG, 6'6", 185 lbs, Georgia State, 21 years old) - One of the best story lines of the 2015 NCAA Tournament was the father/son, coach/player story of Ron Hunter and R.J. Hunter.  The is no question that Hunter is one of the best pure shooters in the draft but there are big questions about how much defense he can play in the NBA.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (SF, 6'7", 211 lbs, Arizona, 20 years old) - Although Hollis-Jefferson is one of the best defenders in the 2015 NBA Draft, I might be a better shooter than him right now.  Given how much the Bucks struggled offensively last year, Hollis-Jefferson might not be the best fit but given that the Bucks think they can fix MCW's offensive deficiencies, I assume they think they could do the same thing with Hollis-Jefferson.

Cameron Payne (PG, 6'2", 183 lbs, Murray State, 20 years old) - I see shades of Damian Lillard in Payne and the advanced metrics back that up.  Given that the Bucks are going for long, interchangeable parts, I am not sure that Payne is the best fit physically but his offensive upside is too impressive to pass up.

Tyus Jones (PG, 6'2", 185 lbs, Duke, 19 years old) - Much of my discussion of Payne applies to Jones too and the advanced stats are in even more love with Jones than Payne.  I see Jones as a rich man's Tyler Ennis as a rookie.

There are some names that just missed the cut that I would rather see Hammond trade back to get at the end of the first round and get another asset instead of taking with the 17th pick: Justin Anderson, Montrezl Harrell, Guillermo Hernangomez, Cedi Osman, Rakeem Christmas, or Anthony Brown.

With how I think Hammond should approach the 2015 NBA Draft documented, make sure to check back tomorrow to read my "what each GM should do" mock draft of the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft.

Building The 15 - 2015 NBA Draft Second Round Preview for John Hammond

The Milwaukee Bucks currently hold the 17th and 46th picks in the 2015 NBA Draft.  With how well the NBA is covered, I don't want to step too much on my first round preview or my "Mock" draft but you can almost be assured that the following 39 guys will NOT be available when the Bucks are on the clock with the 46th pick: Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, Kristaps Porzingis, D'Angelo Russell, Justise Winslow, Emmanuel Mudiay, Mario Hezonja, Frank Kaminsky, Devin Booker, Myles Turner, Willie Cauley-Stein, Sam Dekker, Stanley Johnson, Bobby Portis, Trey Lyles, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Jerian Grant, Cameron Payne, Delon Wright, Rashad Vaughn, R.J. Hunter, Kevon Looney, Kelly Oubre, Tyus Jones, Justin Anderson, Guillermo Hernangomez, Montrezl Harrell, Nikola Milutinov, Rakeem Christmas, Anthony Brown, Cedi Osman, Olivier Hanlan, Chris McCullough, Joseph Young, Terry Rozier, Jarell Martin, Jordan Mikey, Josh Richardson, and Larry Nance Jr.

Despite the fact that the Bucks have nabbed a few starters in the second round of the draft since 2000 (Michael Redd, Dan Gadzuric, Ersan Ilyasova, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute), it is still a crap shoot so I support the Bucks taking any of the 39 guys just mentioned.  If all those 39 guys are gone, here are the 11 guys I like (most to least) so Bucks general manager John Hammond and Company should strongly consider drafting any of them if they are available with the 46th pick:

Dakari Johnson (C, 7'0", 255 lbs, Kentucky, 19 years old) - Backup NBA centers are becoming just like backup MLB catchers, expensive despite the fact that they are borderline part-time employees.  The Bucks are scheduled to pay Zaza Pachulia $5.3 million next season and the Bucks can get the same production from Johnson for 20% of the cost.

Pat Connaughton (SG/SF, 6'5", 215 lbs, Notre Dame, 22 years old) - The surprise combine freak might be an even better baseball player than a basketball player.

Michael Frazier II (SG, 6'5", 199 lbs, Florida, 21 years old) - Projects as one of the best long-distance shooters in the entire draft.

Richaun Holmes (PF, 6'10", 243, Bowling Green, 21 years old) - Arguably the best shot-blocker in the draft helps the Bucks push to be the best defensive team in the NBA.

Alan Williams (PF, 6'8", 261 lbs, UC Santa Barbara, 22 years old) - Projects to be one of the best all-around defenders in the entire draft.

Norman Powell (SG, 6'4", 215 lbs, UCLA, 22 years old) - Although Powell struggled from long distance last season, he put together a string off impressive workouts to show he brings more to the table than being a lock down defender.

Tyler Harvey (SG, 6'4", 181 lbs, Eastern Washington, 21 years old) - I see Harvey as a small school version of Powell.

Christian Wood (PF, 6'11", 216 lbs, UNLV, 19 years old) - Has a chance to be Larry Sanders 2.0 on the court, the question is whether he is the anti-Larry Sanders off-the-court or Larry Sanders 2.0 off the court.

J.P. Tokoto (SF, 6'6", 196 lbs, University of North Carolina, 21 years old ) - The Wisconsin native might have left school a year too early but would give the Bucks a guy that can cover almost any position besides center.  A poor man's Jared Dudley, if you will.

Briante Weber (PG, 6'2", 165 lbs, VCU, 22 years old) - A knee injury makes Weber a risky pick but advanced metrics project Weber as a mid-first round talent so the downside risk is worth the gargantuan upside.

Jonathan Holmes (SF, 6'9", 242 lbs, Texas, 22 years old) - Good but NOT great in all facets of the game.  Reminds me a little of Khris Middleton, which might be too high of praise for a guy that might go undrafted.

With how I think the Bucks should approach the second round of the 2015 NBA Draft documented, make sure to check back over the next couple days to read my thoughts on how the Bucks should approach the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft and my "what each GM should do" mock draft of the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft.

Building The 15 - Ilyasova Trade and How to Handle Dudley & Middleton

I had my post in the can for how Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond should approach the players on The 15 from last season that have decision points that will impact whether they are on The 15 next season since there are only two players fit that description: shooting guard/small forward Khris Middleton is a restricted free agent and small forward/power forward Jared Dudley has a player option for next season.  Hammond threw a little but of a wrench in that when he traded power forward Ersan Ilyasova aka the Poor Man's Dirk to the Detroit Pistons for small forward Caron Bulter and small forward Shawne Williams.  Before I discuss how to handle Middleton and Dudley, let's clean-up the Ilyasova trade.

This was a salary dump that gives the Bucks essentially useless salary cap space that I hope they sit on unless they can somehow lure a top-end free agent.  I don't want to step on my free agency preview for Hammond that I plan to post early next week too much but unless the Bucks can attract a potential NBA All-Star (think DeAndre Jordan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Monroe, etc.) then I say sit on the sidelines for free agency because the last thing the Bucks need to do is overpay mediocre players to fill spots on The 15 given all the upcoming money they will presumably need to commit to Middleton, The Greek Freak, Jabari Parker, and possibly MCW.  The salary cap space is most likely useless given that mega NBA stars never sign with the Bucks as free agents unless they already play in Milwaukee (think Big Dog, Ray Allen, and Michael Redd).

In terms of the actual players involved, I still think Ilyasova is a Poor Man's Dirk so given that he is scheduled to earn $7.9 million this season and has what amounts to a team option for next season since only $400,000 of his $8.4 million contract is guaranteed, I would have much rather just kept Ilyasova, especially because the Bucks couldn't even beat a future second round pick out of the Pistons in this deal.  Bulter had a cup of stale coffee with the Bucks that lasted 34 games in the 2013-14 season before being waived, which was NOT what Butler expected to happen given that his presence on The 15 for the Bucks that season was being dubbed as a coming home party for the Racine native.  Don't get any grand illusions about Butler rectifying that in his second go round given that the Bucks will waive him before July 1st to get rid of his $4.5 million non-guaranteed salary for next season.  The Bucks can hold tight on Shawne Williams for now because his $1.4 million salary does NOT have a July 1st guaranteed date so he might be a useful, cheap bench guy depending on what happens in the 2015 NBA Draft and free agency.

With my analysis of the Ilyasova salary dump trade out of the way, let's turn to Middleton and Dudley.  The easier case is Dudley because he holds the cards since it is a $4.25 million early termination option so there is NOT much advice I can give Hammond other than to entice Dudley to NOT exercise his early termination option.  Dudley was clearly a useful locker room presence last season and occasionally provided some on-court production given that he can play and defend any position on the floor besides point guard. If Dudley opts out, my guess is that he would do that just to add a couple years at roughly the same average salary per season to his deal but it only takes one irrational team to inflate Dudley's market value.  There is no way that Dudley ever signs another mega-deal but given that the salary cap is going to skyrocket in a couple seasons, I could see a borderline playoff team overpaying Dudley.  Although I like Dudley, the Bucks should NOT get in a bidding war if he exercises his early termination option because next off-season they have a ton of potential free agents so The 15 could go through a pretty drastic makeover in the next 18 months.  Dudley would be a nice person to help smooth over the changes to The 15 but NOT if that price is over $5 million per season.  Let's see if Dudley actually terminates his contract.  If he does, the ceiling I would go on Dudley is three-years, $15 million.

That leaves the most interesting decision for Hammond this off-season, which is how to handle Middleton.  If I am Middleton's agent, I don't want to overplay my hand too much because Bill Simmons sadly formerly of Grantland.com coined the phrase "a market max player".  Feel free to read his entire take but basically it means that since the salary cap is going to skyrocket the next few seasons, there are guys that are NOT max guys that will get paid like max guys because a few years from now that contract will look reasonable given the jump in the NBA's salary structure cap thanks to the influx of cash from their new television deal.  If Middleton is willing to sign for $10 million a year or less, make the deal and move on.  If Middleton is actually holding out as "a market max player" then the decision is much more nuanced.

I assume that Middleton will be looking for between $12 and $15 million per year so let's break this down a little more.  Middleton has only played three NBA seasons but his PER has gone up each season: 11.43 in 2012-13, 12.55 in 2013-14, and 15.70 in 2014-15.  Middleton looks like the perfect 3-and-D given his body-type (6'7" and 225 lbs) and three-point shooting ability (above 40% shooter for his career).  With all the good news out the way, there are two caveats to making Middleton "a market max player".  One, I question if this year-over-year improvement is sustainable for Middleton long-term.  Two, with all the guys the Bucks might have to pay in the future, it might make sense to move Middleton for future draft picks and expiring contracts.  Given that the Bucks have such a hard time attracting free agents, I would sign Middleton to a long-term contract as long as it does NOT exceed $15 million per season.

Make sure to check back tomorrow for the start of my 2015 NBA Draft preview when I given Hammond names of guys that he should reasonably target with the 46th pick in the 2nd round of the 2015 NBA Draft.

Building The 15 - Building The 15 - Bucks Trade Knight for MCW, Ennis, and Plumlee

A few hours before the 2015 NBA Trade Deadline it looked like it would be one of the quietest NBA trade deadlines in the last decade until a flurry of moves that all emanated from the Phoenix Suns and rippled through the NBA almost broke Twitter.  As all NBA pundits besides my current favorite NBA writer Grantland's Zach Lowe since his wife just had a baby girl tried to get as much information out as possible about all of the franchise altering trades.

As a whole I ultimately think the Suns got much worse in the short term given that they traded three very interesting point guards in Goran Dragic, Isaiah Thomas, and Tyler Ennis as well as a tasty 2015 first round draft pick (L.A. Lakers pick that is Top 5 protected) for essentially combo guard Brandon Knight and three future first round picks (a 2016 first rounder from the Celtics via the Cavs with Top 10 protection as well as two first rounders from the Miami Heat one from the 2017, 2018, or 2019 draft depending on certain conditions and the other is 2021 unprotected).  Sure there are more players and details involved in those deals but if the Suns just tried to cultivate the back court of Dragic and Eric Bledsoe last off-season, they might have had the most interesting back court in the NBA besides the Golden State Warriors (Stephen Curry and Clay Thompson) for the next five years.  Instead the Suns took Ennis with the 18th pick in the 2014 NBA Draft and acquired Thomas in a sign-and-trade from the Kings, which basically guaranteed that Dragic was going to walk this off-season given that it left the Suns with a crowded back court and an unhappy Dragic.  There was no question that Dragic was going to get traded since his agent publicly said as much.  The question was where would Dragic end up.  Ultimately Dragic went to the Heat but the most interesting move the Suns made was a three-team deal that involved the Milwaukee Bucks and the Philadelphia 76ers.

The Bucks/76ers/Suns trade was the biggest surprise of the deadline because almost every one of the other big names moved at the trade deadline (Arron Afflalo, Dragic, Reggie Jackson, and Enes Kanter) were shopped for weeks leading up to the trade deadline while the two biggest pieces in the Bucks/76ers/Suns three-teamer, point guards Brandon Knight and Michael Carter-Williams ("MCW"), were NOT floated in almost any NBA trade deadline rumors.  Here are the general parameters of the Bucks/76ers/Suns trade with the former employee for each player in parenthesis:

- Bucks get MCW (76ers), Ennis (Suns), and power forward Miles Plumlee (Suns)

- 76ers get 2015 Top 5 protected L.A. Lakers first round pick (Suns)

- Suns get Knight (Bucks) and Kendall Marshall (Suns)

There is no question that Knight is the best player in the trade but he also has the most uncertain future give that he is scheduled to become a restricted agent this summer since he was the 8th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft but could NOT agree to an extension with the Bucks last off-season.  The real question is whether MCW or the draft pick is the second best player in the trade.  MCW is averaging 15 points, 7.4 assists, and 6.2 rebounds this season.  That makes MCW and Russell Westbrook the only current 15-7-6 guys but take that with a grain of salt because MCW is shooting just 26% from three-point land and 39.6% from the field.  That means MCW is a chucker on the worst team in the NBA, which is a far cry from what Westbrook is doing to keep the Oklahoma City Thunder in the playoff hunt sans Kevin Durant.

In order for the 76ers to get the pick from the Lakers it has to fall out of the Top 5, which is no guarantee given that the Lakers currently have the 4th worst record in the NBA with a fair amount of distance between the Lakers and the 5th worst team in the NBA right now the Orlando Magic given that the Magic currently have five more wins than the Lakers with less than 30 games to play in the regular season.  Given the dire cap situation for the Lakers, their only hope of being relevant for Kobe's last few years in the NBA is a Patrick Ewing-esque NBA Lottery fix.  I know the current commissioner Adam Silver seems like a much more upstanding individual than former NBA commissioner David Stern but the Lakers struggling is trouble for the NBA so I bet the Lakers keep the pick in 2015.

There are a million and one places that you can go to read in grave detail about how MCW is one of the worst three-pointer shooters in the NBA.  Given how much NBA teams besides the Phil Jackson lead New York Knicks and Byron Scott coached Lakers realize how important the three point shot is in 2015, it does perplex me a little that Hammond apparently doesn't care how damaging that is offensively that it is to downgrade from Knight to MCW.

There are really only two far fetched on-court justifications that make sense to me.  One, Hammond is trying to build a defensive oriented team with the long longest wingspan at every position in the NBA by trotting out MCW at point guard, The Greek Freak at shooting guard, Jabari at small forward, John Henson at power forward, and a warm body at center. Two, Hammond actually thinks that Bucks head coach Jason Kidd can work with MCW to improve his shot much like Kidd did with Knight.  If Kidd is going to fix MCW's shot, he should look at what the New Orleans Pelicans were able to do with Anthony Davis.  I get that MCW is no Anthony Davis but we are talking about shot fundamentals.  Save used to release the ball in front of his face but now he has a much higher release point.  According to ESPN's Kirk Goldsberry that changed Davis from Josh Smith level of efficiency into Durant level of efficiency.  The first justification is potentially believable but the second one is a couple year project.

I was very critical about new Bucks owner Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry trading for Kidd.  I am not ready to recant that entire post because my main beef was not that I thought Kidd would be a horrible coach.  My two biggest beefs were that the owners handled the process incorrectly because they made the move behind Hammond's back.  I can honestly live with that but my bigger worry was that I thought it was a precursor to turning over the general manager responsibilities to Kidd, which gave me horrible flashbacks of when Mike Sherman served as dual head coach and general manager for the Green Bay Packers.  Given how well the Bucks have played despite being without rookie small forward Jabari Parker, arguably the most talented player on The 15, I see Hammond around a long time now unless this trade submarines the franchise thanks to The 15 that Hammond built for the Bucks.

Let's assume the Lakers somehow get the 6th pick in the 2015 NBA Draft so they have to give it to the 76ers.  Right now Chad Ford has UCLA power forward Kevon Looney rated 6th and Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein rated 7th in his Top 100 players in the 2015 NBA Draft.  Although both of those players have interesting upsides, I would probably still rather have MCW over both of those guys.  If the Lakers end up with a Top 5 pick then this trade looks borderline horrible for the 76ers since they gave away a great defensive but horrible offensive point guard to get yet another draft pick.  I know 76ers general manager Sam Hinkey seems like a smart guy but two in the bush is not always better than a bird in the hand.

One way or another the Bucks are going to commit a ton of money to their young nucleus over the next three or four years so I honestly think this is more about covering up that they made a $30 million mist this summer when they failed to get Knight signed to a contract extension last off-season than adding a better player.  As I mentioned in my first look at The 15 this season, it seemed like last off-season the floor for a contract extension for Knight was four-years, $32 million while the ceiling was four-years, $48 million.  Given how Knight thrived this season, I honestly think he could sign a five-year, $90 million extension since he posses a very unique skill set and there are a ton of NBA teams with cap space this off-season.

The most interesting player in the trade is Ennis.  My 2014 and 2015 NBA Trade Deadline advice posts for Hammond show my affinity for Suns combo guard Archie Goodwin.  The Suns used to have essentially seven guards on their roster (Bledsoe, Reggie Bullock, Dragic, Zoran Dragic, Ennis, Goodwin, Gerald Green, and Thomas) before they sent the Dragic brothers to the Heat, Thomas to the Boston Celtics, and Ennis to the Bucks.  Sure the Suns got Knight and Marcus Thornton back but I would rather have Goran Dragic than Knight, Thomas than Thornton, and time will tell whether Ennis is worthy of getting regular NBA minutes given that he is only a rookie.  It looks like Goodwin will be the beneficiary of increased playing time thanks to the mass exodus at the guard position from Phoneix.  It will be interesting to see if Ennis or Goodwin blossom into a better NBA player because I would have bet on Goodwin instead of Ennis but most of that is due to my unending desire to replace Ray Allen with a quality shooting guard as opposed to adding another backup point guard when the Bucks already had a couple in the fold.

Assuming the Bucks are able to buyout with center Larry Sanders, after all of the moves above that leaves the Bucks with roughly $15 million in cap space this off-season.  As crazy as it sounds, I could see both players that Hammond traded to the Suns actually playing for the Bucks next season.  Given that Marshall is coming off a season ending knee injury, I can't see another NBA team claiming him after the Suns waive him so I could see him coming back.  It will be much trickier for Hammond to get Knight to come back.  If I were Hammond, I would throw the a huge font-loaded contract with declining yearly salaries over the life of the contract at Knight this off-season.  If the Suns match, great.  If not, the Bucks get Knight back and possibly pay the tax next season until Mayo and Pachullia become free agents after next season, which will allow the Bucks to open up another $13 million in cap space to work out an extensions for their bevy of talented players still on rookie contracts.

These is a slim chance that Knight returns to the Bucks this off-season, which second contract extension logjam given that the there are a ton of guys currently on The 15 that were taken in the first round of the the last three NBA Drafts so if they are worth anything they are due big contract extensions in the near future:

In the 2012 NBA Draft the Bucks drafted power forward/center Jon Henson with the14th pick and just added Plumlee, who was the 26th pick in that same draft.  That means Henson and Plumlee are due contract extensions following the 2015-16 NBA season, I expect Henson's to be in the $8 to $10 million per year range, which I would expect to be three or four times larger than Plumlee's on a per year basis.

In 2013 NBA Draft the 76ers drafted MCW was the 11th pick and the Bucks drafted The Greek Freak with the 15th pick.  Both players look like potential franchise players with The Greek Freak having a much higher ceiling but MCW having a much higher floor.  I say potential because both need to make big strides offensively in the next 18 months to fulfill their lofty expectations.  That means unless MCW or The Greek Freak suffer career ending injuries over the next two seasons (knocking on wood as I type), they will both most likely sign very lucrative contracts with some NBA team following the 2016-17 NBA season.

That leaves the 2014 NBA Draft when the Bucks drafted Jabari with the 2nd pick and Ennis was the 18th pick.  Injuries cut Parker's seasons short but absent that being a career ending injury, the Bucks would sign Parker long-term right now if the CBA allowed it.  The jury is still out on Ennis so luckily the Bucks have a couple seasons to see what he can do before they need to make any long-term decisions on Ennis.

The NBA's new revenue deal kicks in a few years from now, which will dramatically increase the salary cap but my hopes was that the Bucks would already have extended most of their non-max core, which would make each of those deals look even more cost-effective in a couple seasons.  One school of thought is that Hammond can continue to punt on rookies at the end of their first contract when they are on the verge of singing expensive extensions (Knight) for young guys that are NOT as talented but cost a fraction for the next few seasons (MCW, Ennis, and Plumlee).  Unfortunately those deals will become fewer and far between given that there are fewer Billy Kings still in charge of NBA teams.

The other thing that worries me about the Knight trade is that it opens up the Bucks to another silly mid-level deal for a useless veteran to help spend some of their available cap space since I find it highly unlikely that they will be able to attract a top-flight free agent this off-season.  Hopefully if The 15 continues to improve, the Bucks will be able to entice tasty free agents to sign with them down the road but I do NOT see it happening this off-season.

For the first time in a while I wanted Hammond to sit tight at the NBA Trade Deadline given how well the Bucks player recently (won 8 of 9 heading into the All-Star Break) but instead Hammond made a blockbuster deal.  Despite losing Jabari for the season in mid-December, the Bucks have continued to be a tough match-up for most teams because of how well they play defensively.  Once healthy, MCW will only add to that defensive prowess, the question is where the scoring will come from since Knight was the team's leading scorer before Hammond traded him to the Suns.  Sure MCW put up points for the 76ers but he did it as inefficiently as possible for the worst team in the NBA.  Remember, even the worst NBA teams still usually score 85 to 90 points a game so someone has to score.

It will be interesting to see how all the new pieces jell over the next few weeks.  If the Bucks can go on a nice winning streak, I could actually see them push the Bulls for the Central Division title.  The more likely scenario is that the Bucks struggle for a couple weeks to find their offensive identity and plummet to the 6th or 7th seed in the east.  Either way, it will be interesting to see how this plays out because if MCW is NOT a fit long-term, the 2015 NBA Trade Deadline will be the day Hammond NOT only traded Knight but also the day he started to process of agitating Parker and The Greek Freak to the point that they consider leaving Milwaukee for greener pastures.  If MCW learns how to shoot then the 2015 NBA Trade Deadline will go down as the day that Hammond turned water into wine...welcome to Milwaukee MCW...no pressure.