The 25 - 0 Down and 162 (& hopefully more) to Go

For those new to this space, The 25 is much like The 53 posts that I do for the Green Bay Packers or The 15 posts that I do for the Milwaukee Bucks.  For each iteration of the post throughout the season I rank the trade value of the entire active roster based on age, contract, health, and reasonable expected future performance.  Instead of writing a short blurb about each player, I will focus on a few with the most interesting changes since the last post.  Basically this post is meant to help Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin properly value his assets for potential trades while simultaneously shinning light the biggest needs on The 25.

If that seems too abstract let me go over a simple example.  Right fielder Ryan Braun is probably the most talented player on The 25 despite coming off a 65-game suspension for use of performance enhancing drugs (PED's).  When you factor in Braun's mega contract and age, there are actually other players on The 25 that are more desirable to the other 29 MLB general managers so that is why he is not ranked number one.  Without further adu, here are my initial rankings of The 25 of the Brewers in 2014:

Player Rankings

1. Jean Segura (SS) 2. Carlos Gomez (CF) 3. Jonathan Lucroy (C) 4. Ryan Braun (RF) 5. Kyle Lohse (RSP) 6. Yovani Gallardo (RSP) 7. Matt Garza (RSP) 8. Wily Peralta (RSP) 9. Tyler Thornburg (RSP) 10. Scooter Gennett (2B) 11. Marco Estrada (RSP) 12. Khris Davis (LF) 13. Jim Henderson (RRP) 14. Will Smith (LRP) 15. Brandon Kintzler (RRP) 16. Aramis Ramirez (3B) 17. Wei-Chung Wang (RRP) 18. Logan Schafer (LF) 19. Mark Reynolds (1B) 20. Francisco Rodriguez (RRP) 21. Zach Duke (LRP) 22. Martin Maldonado (C) 23. Jeff Bianchi (3B) 24. Lyle Overbay (1B) 25. Rickie Weeks (2B)

Disabled List

1. Tom Gorzelanny (LRP, 15-DL)

#1) Jean Segura (SS): Melvin is going to look back at Opening Day 2014 as the start of the official count down to Segura's exit from Milwaukee.  Melvin and Segura's agent discussed an extension but apparently were so far off that negotiations brown down right after they started.  The Atlanta Braves recently signed shortstop Andrelton Simmons to a seven-year, $58 million contract.  That is a little rich compared to what Segura should command but is at least a relevant data point for the negotiations.  I actually don't understand Melvin's thinking given that the the first long-term contract extension for young studs (e.g. Tampa Bay Rays third basemen Evan Longoria's six-year, $17 million contract with three years and $30 million in rolling guarantees with a $3 million buyout to stretch it to a ridiculously affordable nine-year, $47 million contract or Braun's initial eight-year, $45 million contract) are NOT financially crippling. The Brewers should get Segura locked up long-term on the cheap(er) now but proceed cautiously on his second long-term extension because that one can be a back breaker (e.g. Braun's five-year, $105 million extension).

#4) Ryan Braun (RF): We know that Braun tested positive for the use of some performance enhancing drug in the same season he was voted the N.L. MVP.  Braun fought the positive results and ultimately pulled the reverse Al Capone. We know Braun was ultimately suspended but the specifics of why Braun was suspended for 65-games is still not completely flushed out given that he apparently negotiated a shorter suspension.  That worked out well for Braun since last season he was scheduled to earn $8.5 million before his 65-game suspension so he lost out on $3.4 million (65/162 * $8.5 million) but returns to the field this season when his salary jumps to $10 million before going to $12 million in 2015.

I am sure fans will cheer Braun in the home opener and sanctimonious baseball writers, the same ones that blindly covered the Bonds/Sosa/McGwire PED fueled home-run era with kid gloves, will decry Brewers fans as stupid.  I am torn on this one because if Braun wasn't so indignant when he won his PED suspension appeal, I might cut him some slack but the way he savagely attacked the sample collector is unforgivable to me.

Plus Braun roped in Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers into backing his "innocence".  Since then, Rodgers severed his personal and professional (used to co-own 8-Twelve MVP Bar & Grill) ties with Braun.  The Brewers have Braun under contract through at least 2020 so let's hope the healing process can being today.  Hopefully if Braun can put up decent numbers while clean, at least that would allow the Brewers to get some assets in return for Braun but if Braun struggles sans PED's then Melvin has a potential franchise crippling contract on The 25 for almost a decade.

#10) Scooter Gennett (2B): Hopefully we are in the infancy of another home grown youth movement for the Brewers.  In the mid-to-late 2000's the Brewers graduated the likes of Braun, Prince Fielder, and Rickie Weeks from their farm system.  Since then, they failed to graduate an everyday player from the farm system that they drafted at any position besides catcher.  Gennett is gunning to replace the much maligned and overpaid Weeks, which is one of the last everyday players Melvin drafted and developed.  Besides Gennett, Melvin is placing tons of faith in left fielder Khris Davis to give the Brewers two graduates of their farm system via the draft as opening day starters for the first time since the late 2000's.

#17) Wei-Chung Wang (RRP): The most improbable member of The 25 went from pitching in single-A for the Pittsburgh Pirates last season to the majors this season.  Melvin selected Wang in the Rule 5 Draft, which means Wang has to stay on The 25 (or disable list) for the entire 2014 season or be sent back to the Pirates for half the amount the Brewers originally paid for Wang.  That condition on Wang's contract with the associated "buy-out" for sending him back to the Pirates makes it seem like he did not earn his spot on The 25 but in spring training Wang posted a 3.86 ERA to earn his spot on The 25 irrespective of the conditions of his contract.

I am not a huge fan of making broad season predictions, especially in baseball because teams evolve throughout the lengthy season, but for some reason I have a good feeling about the Brewers this season.  I am not ready to guarantee they will make the playoffs but I think it is more likely than not that they make the post-season for just the 5th time in 46 seasons and the first time since 2011.

For those lucky enough to attend Opening Day as the Brewers host the Braves, enjoy.  Make sure to check back in this space for regular coverage of the front office moves by Melvin throughout the season.

Building The 25 - Brewers drastically overpay Garza

Up until a few days ago the only significant moves Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin made to The 25 were two separate trades. Melvin traded away relief pitcher Burke Badenhop and outfielder Norichika Aoki for what amounted to a couple left-handed pitching lottery tickets in Luis Ortega and Will Myers respectively.  Towards the middle of last week I even discussed how proud I was of Melvin showing fiscal restraint instead of handing out huge free agent contracts this off-season as a peace offering for what the team put their fans through last season.

Well it was all too good to be true.  Late last week reports leaked that the Brewers signed free agent starting pitcher Matt Garza to a four-year, $52 million deal.  The Brewers initially refuted that report via Twitter, which gave me hope that Melvin was rethinking whether to break the first of the five rules I gave him for how to build The 25 for 2014.  Ultimately the Brewers and Garza agreed to a four-year, $50 million deal could end up being a five-year, $67 million deal.  The Brewers ultimately announced the signing at the team's annual fan fest, which was free this year as a peace offering for what the team put their fans through last season.

Before I breakdown the largest contract ever given to a starting pitcher in Brewers franchise history in more depth, I thought I would give a little background on the starting pitching situation for the Brewers before the Garza signing to show why they did not need to overpay yet another free agent starting pitcher.  Going into the off-season, four of the five spots in their starting rotation were set essentially set in stone: Kyle Lohse, Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada.  The fifth spot in the rotation looked like it was going to be a competition between guys currently in the farm system with the strongest candidates being Hiram Burgos, Mike Fiers, Johnny Hellweg, Jimmy Nelson, and Tyler Thornburg.  After the Brewers traded for Smith and signed Zach Duke to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. the Brewers had a ton of legitimate candidates fighting for the final starting spot in the rotation and the long relief role in the bullpen.

With Garza on The 25, if healthy, the starting rotation will be Garza, Lohse, Gallardo, Peralta, and Estrada in some order.  Given that the Brewers are not really in a win-now mode, I would much rather see them go into spring training with all their young guys fighting for the final spot in the rotation.  If one of the five odds on starters gets hurt in spring training, pending some drastic change in the performance in spring training, I would give Thornburg the first chance followed by Fiers, Burgos, Smith, Nelson, Hellweg, and Duke.

The first four years of Garza's deal are fairly straightforward with him earning $12.5 million in each of those years.  The only real quirks of the first four years of the deal is that Garza deferred $2 million each year that is paid annually on December 15th starting in 2018 through 2021.  Besides that, Garza can earn an extra $500,000 each time he starts 30 games or throws 190 innings in a season over the first four years of the deal.  If Garza achieves all of that, it makes the first four years of the deal worth $54 million.  The fifth year of this deal in 2018 is where this deal gets complicated.

According to Cot's on Contracts, Garza has a $13 million vesting option in 2018 if he meets three conditions in the first four years of the deal: starts 110 games, throws at least 115 innings in 2017, and does NOT end the 2017 season on the disabled list.  If Garza does NOT satisfy all three conditions, there are two other potential outcomes.  One, if Garza spends an extended period of time on the disabled list during the first four years of the deal, which is defined as 130 days over 183 day period of time, the Brewers can retain Garza's services for just $1 million in 2018.  Two, if Garza does not spend an extended period of time on the disabled list the Brewers can exercise their team option to retain his services in 2018 for $5 million.

As I discussed when I reviewed the Aoki/Smith trade, a win on the free agent market costs $6 million.  Leaving 2018 aside for now that means Garza will have to produce at least two wins above replacement (WAR) a season to justify his contract from 2014-2017.  Garza put together impressive seasons in 2008 (3.3 WAR) and 2009 (3.5 WAR).  After that, Garza's WAR numbers didn't break two besides 2011 (2.8 WAR). Last season Garza registered 1.4 WAR thanks mostly to pitching well for the Chicago Cubs following a long stint on the disabled list to the start the season.  The Cubs traded Garza to the Texas Rangers but Garza struggled for the Ranger.  Since Garza was traded mid-season last year the one silver lining is that unlike when owner Mark Attanasio signed Lohse to a three-year, $33 million deal last year, the Brewers did not forfeit their first round pick in the 2014 MLB Draft to sign Garza.

Unless Garza finds a legal fountain of youth that can also keep him healthy, the Brewers severely overpaid him each of the first four years of the deal.  Given how injury prone Garza has been throughout his career the only good part of the Garza deal is that the Brewers made the $13 million vesting option for the fifth year contingent on Garza staying healthy throughout the entire deal, which seems highly unlikely given his long injury history.

The Brewers are now paying six players on The 25 at least $10 million in 2014: Lohse ($11 million), right fielder Ryan Braun ($11 million), Gallardo ($11.5 million), second baseman Rickie Weeks ($12 million), Garza ($12.5 million), and third basemen Aramis Ramirez ($16 million).  Luckily Weeks, Ramirez, and possibly Gallaro ($13 million club option with $600,000 buyout) come off the books in 2015 so the Brewers can clean-up their bloated 2014 payroll.

I expect things to be quiet on the personal front until pitchers and catchers report on February 15th but if the Brewers decide to grossly overpay another veteran like they did with the Garza signing, make sure to check back for full coverage in this space.

2013 MLB Trade Deadline Advice for Doug Melvin

For the last four years at the NBA Trade Deadline I gave very specific advice to Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond for how to improve the roster (2010, 2011, 2012, & 2013).  This is my first year doing the same thing for Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline.  Here is my five-point-plan for how Melvin should approach the 2013 MLB Trade Deadline:

#1) Move at least one of the three "closers" for prospects.  I say "closers" because John Axford was supposed to be the closer for the Brewers this season but struggled to start the season, which opened the door for Jim Henderson and K-Rod.  When you factor in age and contract, I would much rather trade K-Rod or Axford than Henderson but I totally support the Brewers moving any of the three for future assets.

#2) Hold onto starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo unless offered a Greinke-esque return.  The Brewers have Gallardo under control through 2015.  Sure Gallardo's contract jumps from $7.75 million to $11.25 million next season and has a $13 million ($0.6 million buyout) club option for 2015 but that also means the Brewers could have a borderline ace under control through 2015.  Gallardo has pitched for the Brewers so long that people forget he is still only 27-years old, which means Gallardo still has a decade left in his career.  The velocity on Gallardo's fastball has decreased over the last few seasons and to make matters worse he was arrested earlier this season for driving under the influence of alcohol but he is still a low-end ace so the Brewers should keep strongly consider keeping Gallardo.

#3) Hold onto any and all prospects.  The Brewers have as much of a chance of making the playoffs this year as I do of leveraging the advice I dispense on this blog into becoming the next general manager of one of the Cheesehead professional sports franchises.  The Brewers need to continue to build for the future instead of making short-term trades with negative long-term consequences.

#4) Do not trade catcher Jonathan Lucroy, starting pitcher Kyle Lohse, shortstop Jean Segura, right fielder Norichika Aoki, center fielder Carlos Gomez, and left fielder Ryan Braun.  The Brewers have Lucroy, Lohse, Segura, and Aoki on team friendly deals through at least 2014 so that makes them virtually untouchable in my book.  The Brewers have larger financial commitments to Gomez and Braun but with Gomez finally fulfilling the promise that made him the centerpiece of the Johan Santana trade and PED stink hanging over Braun there is no way the Brewers would get equal value for either player at this point.  Lohse and Aoki are the most likely of the six to get traded but I would resist overtures even for them unless the Brewers get a Godfather offer.

#5) Entertain offers for Aramis Ramirez and Rickie Weeks as long as you don't have to eat more than $5 million of either of their contracts.  I know this feels like selling low on Ramirez since he is having a disappointing season this year compared to last year and is currently on the DL but he is owed $16 million next season, which is about $10 million too much.  Plus moving Ramirez will allow the Brewers to see whether Juan Francisco is a long-term answer at third base.  Weeks is on the books for $10 million this seasons, $11 million for next season, and has a $11.5 million vesting option (if healthy at end of 2014 season and has 600 PAs in 2014 or 1,200 PAs in 2013-14) for 2015.  Despite hitting well going into the All-Star break, Weeks is still a Jeff Suppan-esque lightning rod for Brewers fans. Much like Ramirez, the Brewers are on the hook for way too much money for Weeks.  The payroll relief alone of trading either Ramirez or Weeks without assuming their entire contract would make the 2013 MLB Trade Deadline a success for the Brewers.

I wish I knew more minor league players outside of the Brewers' farm system so that I could give Melvin specific players to target but unfortunately I don't at this point.  I promise in next year's incarnation of this column I will give Melvin or the new general manger of the Brewers specific minor league players to target.  Whether Melvin follows my blueprint or charts his own path, if Melvin makes any moves, check back for my full breakdown.

2012 Milwaukee Brewers Initial Player Rankings

After winning the N.L. Central in 2011 most of the national media is picking the Brewers to finish no higher than 3rd in the N.L. Central in 2012 thanks in large part to losing Prince Fielder to the Detroit.

The 2012 Milwaukee Brewers have 162 chances to prove those national pundits wrong. If they do, it will be thanks in large part to the 25 guys that made the opening day roster for the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers. Just like I did last year, here are my initial rankings of the Milwaukee Brewers opening day roster:

#25) Travis Ishikawa (1B/OF): Tough to see utility man Brooks Conrad miss out on the final roster spot to Ishikawa, especially since Conrad is a switch hitter while Ishikawa is just another left-handed bat on the bench at this point.

#24) Cesar Izturis (SS): I don't usually put too much stock in spring training numbers but with how bad Izturis played in spring training it is clear that absent suffering a serious injury Izturis had a guaranteed roster spot at the start of spring training. That's a ton of faith to put in a guy in his early 30's that missed most of 2011 with various injuries.

#23) Tim Dillard (RHP): After getting the Carlos Villanueva treatment (being shuffled between the bullpen and starting rotation based on need) the last few years, Dillard looked like a lost pitcher. In 2010 the now departed pitching coach Rick Peterson suggested that Dillard try a sidearm delivery. That's the best advice Dillard ever got because just a few years later Dillard (out of minor league options) earned his roster spot using his sidearm approach (posted a sub-3 ERA in spring training).

#22) George Kottaras (C): Although I am an unabashed fan of Martin Maldando thanks mostly to his barber skills, it makes baseball sense to keep Kottaras instead of Maldanado as the back-up catcher.

#21) Kameron Loe (RHP): Hard to say whether Loe failed to live up to expectations or got Dusty Bakered the last few years by Macha and Roenicke. If you don't understand the Baker reference, read any article about Mark Prior's injury issues. The Brewers have their 7th (Veras), 8th (K-Rod), and 9th (Axford) inning options set heading into 2012 so Loe has a chance for a breakout year because the Brewers have a ton of quality relievers and expectations are low (no pun intended) for Loe in 2012.

#20) Manny Parra (LHP): Speaking of low expectations, after an injury riddled 2011 season the fact that Parra is out of minor league options basically forced the Brewers to keep Parra over fellow lefty reliever Zach Braddock because Braddock still has minor league options. Once the regular season starts Parra will have to actually perform well because his injury history, lack of minor league options, and shaky performances even when healthy makes Parra a prime candidate to get cut in 2012.

#19) Norichika Aoki (OF): The former member of the Yakult Swallows of Japan's Central League is a three time batting champ and six time Gold Glove winner over eight seasons. Aoki looked lost at the plate at the start of spring training but after what is now being deemed a magical meeting with manager Ron Roenicke, Aoki turned things around at the plate by the end of spring training. Aoki ended up hitting just below .300 in spring training to help the Brewers feel more comfortable about bidding $2.5 million for the right to sign Aoki to what ended up being a two-year, $2.25 million contract with a $1.5 million club option ($.25 million buyout) for 2014.

#18) Jose Veras (RHP): The Brewers acquired Veras from the Pittsburgh Pirates for the under achieving Casey McGehee. I know McGehee looked lost at the end of 2011 but I still would rather platoon McGehee with Green instead of signing Ramirez. Since the Brewers made the trade, let's deal with Veras. Most avid Brewers fans know that Hawkins and Saito were the 7th inning options for the Brewers last year. Since both guys are pitching elsewhere in 2012, the Brewers are looking for Veras to be the 7th inning guy this year.

#17) Carlos Gomez (CF): The guy that was essentially the centerpiece of what the Twins acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade looks like just another guy with speeds. Luckily for Gomez the Brewers plan to be aggressive on the base-paths this year so Gomez's speed will be utilized to the fullest extent.

#16) Marco Estrada (RHP): Held up fairly well last year despite shifting between the starting rotation and long-relief. Since 3/5ths of the 2012 starting rotation (Greinke, Marcum, & Wolf) can be free agents after this season, Estrada looks like a prime candidate to move into the starting rotation in 2013.

#15) Mat Gamel (1B): Although Gamel struggled defensively at 3rd base it would be downright shocking if Gamel isn't a better defender at 1st base than Price Fielder. Keep in mind that Fielder lead the National League in errors with 15 last year. Plus Gamel will have much more range than the stout and short Fielder. Defensive improvements is the good news, the bad news is that Gamel is a shell of Fielder offensively. Fortunately if Gamel can play better defensively there might be a smaller drop-off at first than is currently expected.

#14) Shaun Marcum (RHP): The regular season road warrior of starting pitching last year (lead the league with a 2.21 ERA) absolutely collapsed in the playoffs. Marcum decided to tweak his delivery in the off-season and predictably struggled with injuries throughout spring training. I will see Marcum pitch in-person with Cheesehead Chick, UP, & Sam tomorrow night against the Cubs at Wrigley Field so hopefully Marcum picks up where he left off in the regular season as opposed to the post-season.

#13) Alex Gonzalez (SS): The Brewers had a .982 fielding percentage last year, which seems good, but they only finished 22nd out of 30 teams. Yuniesky Betancourt had the 3rd most errors at shortstop with 21 errors but much like Braun, Betancourt is so limited defensively that if he could get to more balls his error total would be even higher. The Brewers signed Gonzalez almost entirely for his glove but after he hit close to .500 in spring training, expectation are mounting for Gonzalez not only defensively but offensively as well.

#12) Chris Narveson (LHP): Performed great in 2011 and might be the best 5th starter of my lifetime following the Milwaukee Brewers. At least some of Narveson's success has to do with the fact that he faces mostly 5th starters though so its hard to tell whether Narveson could ever be a middle of the rotation guy.

#11) Francisco Rodriguez (RHP): Posted a 1.86 ERA in 31 games after joining the Brewers in a shock trade from the New York Mets. K-Rod thought that impressive performance for the Brewers last year would net him a closer job this off-season. Obviously it didn't so K-Rod came back to the Brewers as possibly the most expensive set-up guy in baseball despite voicing displeasure with that role towards the end of last season.

#10) Nyjer Morgan (CF): Other guys that remind me of Morgan are Milton Bradley, Stephen Jackson, and Metta World Peace. When things are going good guys like Bradley, Jackson, World Peace, and Morgan seem like great teammates. Once the losing streak hits though watch out, because all of the guys just mentioned turn into locker room cancers. Hopefully the Brewers challenge for the division title in 2012 but if they struggle, Morgan will turn into a locker room cancer.

#9) Randy Wolf (LHP): The rich-man's A.J. Hawk of the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers bears a striking resemblance to former Brewer Geoff Jenkins. This post is getting long so let's keep moving.

#8) Aramis Ramirez (3B): When Casey McGehee was Ramirez's backup the Chicago Cubs tried to pass McGehee through waivers but the Brewers scooped up McGehee. As late as opening day last year I thought McGehee was the long-term answer at 3rd base but after an extended slump at the plate it became apparent that McGehee is a below average defender and a streaky hitter at best. Instead of simply promoting Taylor Green the Brewers woefully overpaid for Ramirez who is a below average defender (like McGehee) but is a much better contact hitter (unlike McGehee). Ian Stewart is currently playing 3rd base for the Cubs this year so if history is out guide he better get ready to start at 3rd base for the 2015 Milwaukee Brewers.

#7) Jonathan Lucroy (C): My buddy Sug's nephew is a huge Lucroy fan. In fact he likes Lucroy so much that he dislikes Wolf because Kottaras was Wolf's person catcher. Something tells me the Jonathan Lucroy Fan Club is fairly empty but after signing a very club friendly contract I am guessing Sug's nephew will have some competition for President of the Jonathan Lucroy Fan Club.

#6) Corey Hart (RF/1B): After plodding through a second consecutive injury riddle spring training the Brewers are taking a leap of faith that Hart can stay healthy and thrive in the 5th spot in the line-up hitting behind Ramirez instead of Fielder. It may sound overly simplistic but if Hart struggles in the five hole there will be a big negative waterfall effect felt throughout the entire line-up.

#5) John Axford (RHP): It's going to be hard for Axford to best his 2011 performance after converting 46 saves of his 48 save opportunities. Odds are that Axford regresses slightly but even if Axford converts 90% of his save opportunities he will give the Brewers a good chance to challenge for the N.L. Central title again.

#4) Rickie Weeks (2B): Even after missing a month and a half of the 2011 season Weeks tied for the most errors of any 2nd baseman in the National League. Normally Weeks covers up his defensive limitations with his offensive prowess but Weeks struggled at the plate when he returned from injury in 2011. Hopefully Weeks can return to the healthy version of himself in 2012.

#3) Yovani Gallardo (RHP): In 2011 Gallardo posted his third consecutive season with 200-strikeouts, which is for the first time any pitcher did that in franchise history. Thanks in large part to those strikeouts, Gallardo notched a career best 17 wins and 3.52 ERA in 2011. As crazy as it sounds, I expect Gallardo to improve in 2012. Although FIP (fielding independent pitching) is a much better indicator of performance, wins is still how most fans measure starting pitchers so to give a prediction everyone can appreciate, I expect Gallardo to post 20 wins in 2012 for the first time in his career.

#2) Zack Greinke (RHP): Although Gallardo was the opening day starter, Greinke (and his quirky personality) is the best starting pitcher on the roster according to almost any statistical measure.

#1) Ryan Braun (LF): After pulling the Reverse Al Capone, Braun still refuses to tell the whole story about his "failed" drug test. Unless Braun shares the whole story that unearths some nuggets that have not become public knowledge if I had to bet my life I would say Braun used some form of performance enhancing drugs last season.

I hope you enjoyed the wall-to-wall Milwaukee Brewers coverage throughout the last week. Check back tomorrow for my quick thoughts on seeing the Brewers in person at Wrigley Field. Check back throughout the upcoming weeks for other Cheesehead sports coverage.


Related Posts:
- Quick Thoughts - Top 2012 Milwaukee Brewer Minor Leaguers
- Quick Thoughts - 16 Brewers made ESPN's Top 500 MLB Players
- Wednesday What Happened - Most Overpaid and Most Underpaid 2012 Milwaukee Brewers
- Quick Thoughts - 2012 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster
- Quick Thoughts - Braun pulls the Reverse Al Capone
- Wednesday What (Should) Happen - 2012 Milwaukee Brewers Spring Training Preview

16 players for 2012 Brewers made ESPN's Top 500 MLB Players

Much like ESPN did with their NFL Any Era Team, they recently announced the final members of their Top 500 Current MLB players that was cobbled together by a distinguished 34 person panel.

The 2012 Milwaukee Brewers have 16 of the 25 guys on their opening day roster on the list:

#461 - Mat Gamel (1B, 26 years old)
#458 - Carlos Gomez (CF, 26 years old)
#362 - Chris Narveson (LHP, 30 years old)
#331 - Nyjer Morgan (CF, 31 years old)
#330 - Jonathan Lucroy (C, 26 years old)
#320 - Alex Gonzalez (SS, 35 years old)
#232 - Randy Wolf (LHP, 35 years old)
#173 - Francisco Rodriguez (RHP, 30 years old)
#144 - Corey Hart (RF, 30 years old)
#133 - Aramis Ramirez (3B, 34 years old)
#130 - Shaun Marcum (RHP, 30 years old)
#90 - Rickie Weeks (2B, 29 years old)
#84 - John Axford (RHP, 29 years old)
#53 - Yovani Gallardo (RHP, 26 years old)
#42 - Zack Greinke (RHP, 29 years old)
#6 - Ryan Braun (LF, 28 years old)

I will have much more in-depth comments on each of the 25 guys that made the opening day roster but Marcum's rank felt a little high while Lucroy's ranking felt a little low.

Enjoy opening day and check back through the weekend for more Brewers coverage.


Related Posts:
- Wednesday What Happened - Most Overpaid and Most Underpaid 2012 Milwaukee Brewers
- Quick Thoughts - 2012 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster
- Quick Thoughts - Braun pulls the Reverse Al Capone
- Wednesday What (Should) Happen - 2012 Milwaukee Brewers Spring Training Preview

2012 Milwaukee Brewers - Most Overpaid and Most Underpaid

Welcome to you second annual overpaid/underpaid post. Milwaukee Brewers majority owner Mark Attanasio has consistently increased payroll since buying the team in 2005. In less than 10 years Attanasio has increased payroll from roughly $27 million in 2004 to over $100 million for the first time in franchise history in 2012. Keep in mind the Brewers will eclipse $100 million in payroll as Prince Fielder and his $15.5 million salary from 2011 comes off the books since Fielder signed a monster contract with the Detroit Tigers. As you can imagine, a fair amount of guys from 2011 made the list this season. Here is my take on the most overpaid and underpaid players on the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers opening day roster:

Overpaid:
Honorable Mention: Shaun Marcum (RHP, $7.725 million) and Cesar Izturis (SS, $875,000)

#5) Aramis Ramirez (3B, $6 million): Last year Ramirez had an uptick in his performance at the plate hitting .306 with 26 home runs and 93 RBI (flawed stat) in a contract year so 2012 has regression written all over it. It's not so much the $6 million that Ramirez will earn in 2012, its the fact that the Brewers have a more than competent option in Triple-A in Taylor Green that would only cost them $500,000 in 2012. Add in that the Brewers signed Ramirez to a back-end loaded three-year, $36 million contract and unless Ramirez gets traded he will be on this list through 2014.

#4) Corey Hart (RF, $9 million): The Brewers have a couple impressive minor league outfield prospects (Caleb Gindl and Logan Schafer) that are currently blocked at the major league level by Hart. I would much rather pay Gindl $500,000 than Hart $9 million but that doesn't sell tickets.

#3) Randy Wolf (LHP, $9.5 million): When you fail to draft quality starting pitchers you are forced to overpay for middle of the rotation starting pitchers in free agency like the Brewers did with Wolf. Thanks to some decent drafts the last few seasons the Brewers finally have a bunch of potential starting pitchers at all levels of their minor league system (Jed Bradley, Taylor Jungmann, Wily Peralta, Cody Scarpetta, and Tyler Thornburg) that project as potential major league starting pitchers. The Brewers hold a $10 million option on Wolf for 2013 with a $1.5 million buyout. The progress of some of their minor league pitchers will go a long way towards determining if the Brewers pick-up Wolf's option. Hopefully if those guys continue to develop the Brewers might not have to overpay for guys like Wolf in the future.

#2) Rickie Weeks (2B, $10 million): Injuries have derailed the two-time collegiate batting champ since he joined the Brewers. Injuries aside, Weeks is nothing more than a below average fielding 2nd baseman and an above average offensive player with speed. That previous sentence doesn't describe a guy worth $10 million. With Scooter Gennett scheduled to start at 2nd base in Double-A this year, the Brewers have a younger and cheaper option nipping at Weeks' injured riddled heels.

#1) K-Rod (RHP, $8 million): After a soft market for closers didn't get K-Rod a mega-closer-contract that his agent (Scott Boras) promised he accepted arbitration to earn $8 million in 2012, which is more money that the rest of bullpen is scheduled to earn combined (Kameron Loe owed $2.175 million, Jose Veras owed $2 million, Manny Parra owed $1.2 million, John Axford owed $525,000, Marco Estrada owed $486,000, and Tim Dillard owed $482,000). K-Rod better cash his checks and keep his mouth shut this year because last year K-Rod complained about being just a set-up guy as opposed to the closer despite the fact that closer John Axford put together arguably the best closer performance in franchise history.


Underpaid:
Honorable Mention: Chris Narveson (LHP, $500,000) and Marco Estrada (RHP, $486,000)

#5) Jonathan Lucroy (C, $500,000): The Brewers and Lucroy recently agreed to a five-year (possibly six) contract worth a minimum of $11 million and a maximum of $18 million (if the Brewers exercise their $5.25 million option for 2017). The Brewers priced in a raise if Lucroy qualifies as a "Super Two" player following 2012 because that means that Lucroy would only have two seasons at league minimum instead of three before becoming arbitration eligible for the next four seasons. In order to qualify as "Super Two" Lucroy will have to finish in the top 22% of a complicated MLB algorithm, which he projects to do just barely. If Lucroy does not qualify for Super Two status he will earn much less in 2013 ($750,000 v. $1.9 million) otherwise the rest of the base salaries are similar. Here is the breakdown of what Lucroy will earn if he does NOT qualify for "Super Two" status in 2012: $750,00 in 2013, $2 million in 2014, $3 million in 2015, and $4 million in 2016. If Lucroy does qualify for "Super Two" status in 2012 he will earn: $1.9 million in 2013, $2.3 million in 2014, $3.3 million in 2015, and $4.25 million in 2016. "Super Two" status aside, I love the contract even if Lucroy has one or two below average seasons between now and 2017 for one simple reason, veteran backup catchers make at least $1 million a year so the Brewers are getting a younger starting catcher with a much bigger upside for about the same amount for at least the next five seasons.

#4) John Axford (RHP, $525,000): The Brewers are currently talking with Axford's representatives about a long-term contract extension. Despite everything I just said about Lucroy it makes no sense to do the same thing with Axford because of how unpredictable closer performances are year-to-year besides the super human Mariano Rivera. Axford is not even salary arbitration eligible till 2013 meaning he cannot become a free agent till after the 2016 season at the earliest. The Brewers should go year-to-year with Axford. If Axford performs well for the next few years, the Brewers will pay for it. If Axford struggles, the Brewers don't have to worry about a long-term financial commitment. I guess that's a long way of saying I think its worth paying long-term for catching as opposed to saves.

#3) Zack Greinke (RHP, $13.5 million): If the Brewers did not have the reigning N.L. MVP (Ryan Braun) and their opening day starter (Yovani Gallardo) earning less than Greinke combined, I would have Greinke #1 on this list despite being the highest paid player on the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers. Greinke is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2012 season and has been without an agent all off-season as the Brewers tried to sign him long-term. In the interim the San Francisco Giants signed right handed starting pitcher Matt Cain to a six-year, $127.5 million contract. While that is great financial news for the Cain and Greinke families, it's a big blow to the Brewers. If you look at Cain's numbers (69-73 with a 3.35 ERA in 204 games) v. Greinke's numbers (76-73 with a 3.82 ERA in 238 games), Greinke still has a better resume since he pitched in the American League for a good portion of those start en route to winning the CY Young in 2009. Cain is 11 months younger that Greinke, which makes age less of a factor. Now that Greinke re-hired his old agent Casey Close that moved from Creative Artists Agency to Excel Sports Management, the Brewers better get ready to pay Greinke at least $20 million a year if they want to keep him in Milwaukee.

#2) Yovani Gallardo (RHP, $5.5 million): Only a handful of teams can truly claim to have more than one "Ace" in their starting rotation. Salary aside I would much rather have Greinke and his quirky personality than Gallardo. When you factor in that Gallardo is scheduled to earn $8 million less than Greinke in 2012 then Gallardo becomes much more valuable to me than Greinke. Even if Greinke leaves after 2012, at least the Brewers have Gallardo signed through 2014.

#1) Ryan Braun (LF, $6 million): Thanks to Braun pulling the Reverse Al Capone the Brewers will get the reigning NL MVP's services for only $6 million...enough said.

A special thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for providing all the financial data used for this post.

Check back the rest of the week and throughout the weekend for a ton of Milwaukee Brewers coverage as the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers open the defense of their 2011 N.L. Central Title against their hated rival and 2011 World Series champs the St. Louis Cardinals.


Related Posts:
- Quick Thoughts - 2012 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster
- Quick Thoughts - Braun pulls the Reverse Al Capone
- Wednesday What (Should) Happen - 2012 Milwaukee Brewers Spring Training Preview

Initial Rankings of the 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

Despite a lackluster start to the 2011 campaign, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated put together some pretty compelling reasons for why the 2011 Milwaukee Brewers look like a playoff bound team (source).

According to Verducci, 15 of the last 16 years (the last five years in a row) a team with a losing record made the playoffs the follow year. All told a shocking 31 teams over the last 16 years made the playoffs after having a losing record the previous year. Those 31 teams made the playoffs thanks to improved pitching and defense*.

The only bad news it that those teams do not get back to the playoffs that often. Only 7 of the previous 30 teams made back-to-back playoff appearances with the Cincinnati Reds trying to become the 8th in 2011. Let's not put the cart before the horse though, the 2011 Milwaukee Brewers need to make the playoffs before we worry about the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers making their second straight playoff appearance.

With the Milwaukee Brewers adding starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, the 2011 Milwaukee Brewers fit the profile of a losing team that improves pitching and defense to make the playoffs.

The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers have a fairly expensive disabled list so before I rank the 25-man opening day roster I thought I would rank the disabled list:

#5) Manny Parra (LHP): So much promise but very little payoff. Since Parra was only effective in spurts the Brewers shuttled Parra between the starting rotation and the bullpen in 2010. With a much better starting rotation in 2011, Parra has the opportunity to flourish as a left-handed reliever or look for a new team since Parra is out of minor league options.

#4) LaTroy Hawkins (RHP): Paying veterans to fill holes is always expensive but relief pitching seems especially expensive since relief pitchers can lose their mojo in no time. Hawkins was injured for most of 2010 and is picking up where he left off at the start of 2011.

#3) Corey Hart (RF): After slipping on wet grass, Hart missed most of spring training and looks set to miss the first month of the season. The Brewers do not want to rush Hart back but $6.5 million is a ton of money to pay a hurt right fielder.

#2) Jonathan Lucroy (C): The potential starting catcher for the next decade for the Brewers suffered a freakish broken pinky on his throwing hand during spring training. Luckily the injury does not look like a long-term problem. All of that is good news because the Brewers have been looking for a long-term solution at catcher since B.J Surhoff. Just to put into perspective how long that has been, when Surhoff caught for the Brewers they played their home games at County Stadium and were a member of the American League.

#1) Zack Greinke (RHP): Pretty amazing that a small market team like the Brewers pulled off blockbuster trades for C.C. Sabathia and Zack Greinke in the last few years. Unfortunately those trades have somewhat gutted the Brewers farm system. The window for major league baseball teams to win is small so I applaud general manager Doug Melvin for rolling the dice on the socially awkward Greinke.


Onto my rankings of the 25 guys that made the 2011 Milwaukee Brewers opening day roster:

#25) Erick Almonte (INF/OF): After having a cup of coffee in the majors in 2001 (4 at-bats over 8 games) and 2003 (100 at-bats over 31 games) for the New York Yankees, somehow Almonte is making another appearance in the majors after an eight year absence. Almonte making the opening day roster is less of an indictment on him and more of an indictment on the farm system.

#24) Sean Green (RHP): Older right-handed relief pitchers are a dime a dozen, which means Green’s days in Milwaukee are numbered once Hawkins is healthy.

#23) Jeremy Reed (OF): The poor man’s Scott Podsednik will meet the same fate as Green once Hart is healthy.

#22) Brandon Kintzler (RHP): Looks like a nice young arm for the Brewers after appearing in a handful of games for the Brewers in 2010 during September call-ups.

#21) Mitch Stetter (LHP): Every bullpen needs the token lefty specialist. Stetter needs to perform better in 2011 if he wants to stick on the roster for the entire season.

#20) George Kottaras (C): Lucroy’s broken pinky means Kottaras has a chance to prove he should continue as the back-up catcher in 2011 instead of Wil Nieves.

#19) Sergio Mitre (RHP): The Brewers turned the carcass of Jim Edmonds into the carcass of Sergio Mitre via Chris Dickerson. The Dickerson/Mitre trade makes no sense, especially following the Hart injury. The Brewers continue to struggle to find quality bench guys not named Craig Counsell.

#18) Takashi Saito (RHP): Gotta love paying a 41-year old relief pitcher almost $2 million, luckily Saito is only signed for 2011.

#17) Nyjer Morgan (CF): The Brewers traded minor league infielder Cutter Dykstra and $50,000 to the Washington Nationals for centerfielder Nyjer Morgan. The much-maligned Morgan put up good numbers in Pittsburgh and Washington in 2009 but regressed in 2010. With the underachieving Carlos Gomez doing his best to play his way out of his starting spot in center field, the Brewers are going to have two potential starting center fielders that will probably never figure it out.

#16) Zach Braddock (LHP): After a great 2010 season, Braddock opens the season as the top left-handed option out of the bullpen for the Brewers.

#15) Wil Nieves (C): Witch Lucroy on the disabled list, Nieves will keep the starting spot warm until Lucroy returns. Rookie manager Ron Roenicke will have to decide whether to keep the old man (Nieves) or the young buck (Kottaras) as Lucroy’s backup. If I were in charge, I would go with the young buck.

#14) Carlos Gomez (CF): The centerpiece of the Johan Santana trade a few years back was subsequently traded to the Brewers in exchange for oft-injured shortstop J.J. Hardy. Gomez shows flashes of why the Twins traded for him a few years back but can never seem to do it over a full season. As I said earlier, Morgan and Gomez will probably platoon for most of the season leaving the Brewers without an actual starting center fielder.

#13) Yuniesky Betancourt (SS): As I said in my Most Overpaid and Most Underpaid 2011 Milwaukee Brewers Post, it is never a good sign when $1 million of your contract is being paid by the Seattle Mariners but that is not the last team you played for before the Brewers. Betancourt joined the Brewers as a part of the Greinke trade and the Brewers would replace Betancourt in a heartbeat if they had a better option.

#12) Kameron Loe (RHP): The primary set-up guy for closer John Axford had an impressive 2010. In fact Loe pitched so well in 2010 that the Brewers flirted with putting Loe in the starting rotation but after acquiring Greinke and Marcum in the off-season, the Brewers had more of a need for Loe in the bullpen than the starting rotation.

#11) Craig Counsell (INF): After a great 2009, Counsell regressed a little offensively in 2010. Fortunately the Brewers have Counsell on the roster for his versatility (plays 2nd, SS, and 3rd) and leadership. No matter how Counsell performs in 2011, he has earned the right to be one of the 25-guys on the roster for as long as he wants.

#10) Chris Narveson (LHP): A quality 5th starter on almost any team has consistently out-pitched the field to earn his spot in the Brewers rotation.

#9) Mark Kotsay (OF/1B): After flirting with retirement, Kotsay went from a spot starter to the opening day starter in right field thanks to Corey Hart’s injury. If Kotsay performs well, the Brewers might want to give Hart some reps in centerfielder to see whether an outfield of Braun, Hart, and Kotsay is their best option.

#8) Randy Wolf (LHP): After a bad start to 2010, Wolf settled down to put together a decent campaign. When Greinke gets healthy the Brewers have to decide where to slot Wolf in the starting rotation. Wolf is the 4th best starter behind Greinke, Gallardo, and Marcum but slotting Wolf 4th and Narveson 5th would have the Brewers starting three right-handed pitchers followed by two left-handed pitchers. Either way things are looking up for the Brewers because Wolf goes from the #2 starter in 2010 to the #4 starter in 2011.

#7) Shaun Marcum (RHP): Acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays for Canadian minor league prospect Brett Lawrie. Although the Brewers gave up one of their best prospects, they got a middle of the rotation starter in return. Lawrie may turn out to be a great major league player or he may be another Mat Gamel. Either way the Brewers got a quality starting pitcher that is moving from the American League to the National League. Even if the Brewers didn’t make the big splash trading for Greinke, acquiring a starter like Marcum will go down as one of the best off-season moves in the last decade for the Brewers.

#6) John Axford (RHP): After Trevor Hoffman’s monumental collapse at the beginning of 2010, Axford came out of nowhere to give the Brewers a new school Rollie Fingers. Hopefully Axford can pitch in 2011 like he did in 2010.

#5) Casey McGehee (3B): Much like Counsell, McGehee regressed a little offensively in 2010 after a great 2009. McGehee still gives the Brewers some protection for Ryan Braun once Prince Fielder leaves after 2011 so expect McGehee to rebound well in 2011.

#4) Rickie Weeks (2B): It can’t be understated how high the expectations were for Rickie Weeks when the Brewers drafted him after leading college baseball in batting average for two years. After a number of freakish injuries early in his major league career, Weeks finally started to fulfill some of those expectations. As a result, Weeks signed a huge contract extension with the Brewers in the off-season. The four-year, $38.5 million contract** has an $11.5 million option for 2015 that is guaranteed if Weeks meets two conditions***. With all the injuries Weeks has suffered throughout his career, the Brewers are making a huge financial commitment to Weeks. Hopefully Weeks will stay healthy and justify the large investment.

#3) Prince Fielder (1B): The sawn song for Fielder is going to be very interesting to watch. If the Brewers struggle in 2011 they might feel compelled to trade Fielder at the trade deadline. Either way, Fielder has not showed a willingness to sign an extension despite the Brewers reportedly offering Fielder a five-year, $100 extension a few years ago. Since Fielder is represented but super-a-hole agent Scott Boras, Fielder is headed to free agency following 2011. An American League team is an ideal landing spot for Fielder because although he is decent in the field, Fielder looks like he will be a full-time DH during the second half of the mega extension he will presumably sign in the off-season. If I were in charge, no matter how the Brewers play in 2011 they should keep Fielder throughout the season and take the draft pick compensation if they can’t sign him to a contract extension.

#2) Yovani Gallardo (RHP): Gallardo is living up to his big contract extension. Once Greinke rejoins the rotation, the Brewers will have the best one-two punch in baseball outside of Philadelphia and San Francisco. If the Brewers are smart they will continue to market Gallardo and the Chorizo (#5 sausage in the sausage race) to the growing Hispanic population in Milwaukee.

#1) Ryan Braun (LF): With Fielder on the way out, Braun is the face of the franchise for the next decade. Starting pitchers like Greinke and Gallardo are great to have but they only pitch once or twice a week. Guys like Braun play everyday, which is what excites the average fan. Braun needs to continue to produce on a daily basis in 2011 and into 2012 or the Brewers will have a huge hole in the heart of their line-up.


Footnotes:
* = 19 straight and 27 of the 31 teams allowed fewer runs the season they made the playoffs compared to the previous year.

** = $7.5 million in 2011, $10 million in 2012, $10 million in 2013, and $11 million in 2014.

*** = First, Weeks must have either 600 plate appearances in 2014 or 1,200 plate appearances between 2013 and 2014. Second, Weeks must end the 2014 season healthy. If Weeks does not meet either of those conditions if he has at least 400 plate appearances in 2014 the Brewers have to pay Weeks $1 million to void the $11.5 million option for 2015.

Midseason Rankings of the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers

We are only half way through the 2010 major league baseball season and Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin has been a busy man. There are already 6 new faces on the current Milwaukee Brewers 25-man active roster. There are various reasons for the 6 new faces: one guy was released (#24-Claudio Vargas), four guys are on the disabled list (#23-Jody Gerut, #16-LaTroy Hawkins, #15-Gregg Zaun, and #14-Doug Davis), and one guy was sent to the minors (#19-Mitch Stetter).

The 6 new faces the Brewers added to the current 25-man roster are a nice blend of young pitchers (John Axford, Zach Braddock, and Kameron Loe), old pitchers (Chris Capuano and David Riske), and a potential franchise catcher (Jonathan Lucroy). The aforementioned 6 new faces will have an "NR" in parenthesis next to their name, while the other 19 players will have my initial 2010 ranking in parenthesis. As usual I ranked the player based on age, depth at each position, compensation, and clubhouse impact. Without further ado, here are the updated rankings:

#25 (NR) - David Riske (RHP): I don't put much stock in Riske's 2.70 ERA because he has only made 7 appearances and pitched 6.2 innings. I know this seems petty, but why did Doug Melvin sign a reliever named Riske?

#24 (20) - George Kottaras (C): in 35 games Kottaras has amassed a paltry .208 average over 106 at-bats. Kottaras will get his chances in the second half of 2010, which will be an audition for the back-up catcher spot for 2011 because recently promoted Jonathan Lucroy looks like the catcher of the future in Milwaukee after only 19 games.

#23 (NR) - Chris Capuano (LHP): much like Riske, I feel for Capuano on a personal level for all the injuries that he has gone through. That said, Capuano is a professional baseball player and injuries are part of the game. Capuano is 0-1 in 4 appearances (1 start) over 7 innings for a 5.14 ERA so he is going to have to produce soon or it might be time for the Brewers and Capuano to part ways for good.

#22 (25) - Joe Inglett (UTIL): is the Swiss army knife of field players for the Brewers because Inglett is able to play anywhere in the field besides catcher and first base. Inglett is batting a team-high .340 but take that with a grain of salt because it is only over 53 at-bats. Inglett is on the roster for flexibility as a pinch hitter and a spot starter so he better keep swinging the bat well or the Brewers might find a younger version of Inglett before the end of 2010.

#21 (NR) - Zach Braddock (LHP): has a fair amount of fuggly stats so far in 2010 going 1-1 in 15 appearances over 13 innings for a 5.54 ERA. I know all the stats that I cited were mediocre at best but Braddock leads the team with a 14.54 strikeouts per 9 innings. It is just a hunch, but Braddock looks like a major league reliever in the making thanks to his knack for striking hitters out.

#20 (21) - Carlos Villanueva (RHP): decent numbers, but again a guy that doesn't really have a specific role for the Brewers. Villanueva made 38 appearances pitching only 39 innings and amassing a 4.62 ERA. Villanueva better pick things up or he could be on his way out of Milwaukee soon.

#19 (22) - Jim Edmonds (CF): has been surprisingly effective for the Brewers. As I said in my initial rankings, it hurts me as a life-long Brewer fan to root for Edmonds but he has handled things very professionally in Milwaukee and produced fairly well on the field after a year out of baseball too boot.

#18 (18) - Manny Parra (LHP): much like Villanueva, since Parra has been inconsistent the Brewers have shuttled Parra between the bullpen and the starting rotation. Parra looks like he has the stuff to be an effective middle of the rotations starter but his performance so far this year has been less than impressive going 2-5 in 24 appearances (7 starts) over 59 innings leading to a 4.12 ERA. With the way things are going, Parra looks like a middle reliever in the making.

#17 (12) - Dave Bush (RHP): is a mere 3-6 over 16 appearances (15 starts) pitching 83.1 innings and amassing a 4.43 ERA. Bush has never looked the same since taking a line drive off his right arm last season. Bush can be a free agent for the first time in his career after the 2010 season so Bush needs to regain his pre-injury form if he wants a big payday in the off-season.

#16 (11) - Carlos Gomez (CF): guys like Inglett and Counsell would kill to have the talent that Gomez has but Gomez continues to sqaunder that talent with his subpar play on the field. In 50 games Gomez has 179 at-bats but is hitting a mere .235, which is the lowest batting average of any regular play field player on the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers.

#15 (8) - Todd Coffey (RHP): is 2-2 in 30 appearances over 27.1 innings, amassing a 4.28 ERA. The aforementioned numbers show that Coffey has sputtered a little bit in 2010 after being the primary set-up man for now-former closer Trevor Hoffman in 2009. Coffey is earning just over $2 million this year and has one more year of salary arbitration. If Coffey wants to pitch in Milwaukee in 2011 he will have to improve in the second half of 2011.

#14 (13) - Craig Counsell (UTIL): is invaluable because he is able to play anywhere in the infield besides first base. In 54 games Counsell has 117 at-bats but is only hitting .256. It seems cliché but Counsell is on the team for leadership more than production at this point. With a $2.1 million salary it feels like a lot to spend on leadership, but Counsell is showing the young studs another cliché "how to play the game the right way" and it is worth every penny. Trust me, if anyone is going to get through to Gomez it is Counsell.

#13 (17) - Chris Narveson (LHP): is 7-4 in 21 appearances (12 starts) over 78.1 innings while amassing a 5.17 ERA. Narveson has gotten great run support in his starts, which somewhat minimizes his 7-4 record. I know it is early in Narveson's young career but he looks like a young version of Chris Capuano, and I am not talking about the All-Star version of Capuano.

#12 (NR) - Jonathan Lucroy (C): 73 at-bats over 19 games is hardly a career but Lucroy is acquitting himself well as the starting catcher in Milwaukee. I voiced my displeasure with Gregg Zaun being the Brewers' starting catcher because of his advanced age. I hate to say it Doug Melvin, but I was right. Predictably Zaun got hurt. What could not have been predicted is who would step in. For the last few years Angel Salome was the Brewers’ top catching prospect but he recently requested to change positions to outfield. That makes two catching prospects (Angel Salome and Brett Lawrie) that have changed positions leaving the Brewers farm system lacking quality catching prospects. As a result it is Lucroy or bust for 2010.

#11 (4) - Trevor Hoffman (RHP): oh how the mighty have fallen. Hoffman entered 2010 looking to add to his all-time major league save record. Unfortunately in 25 appearances in 2010 Hoffman has gone 2-4 while surrendering a staggering 7 home runs in 24 innings leading to a bloated 8.25 ERA. Despite struggling on the field, Hoffman still goes about his business like a professional on a daily basis, which provides a great example for the young pitching staff. Hoffman's off-field work cannot be questioned. It looks like father time finally caught up to Hoffman on the field though.

#10 (10) - Alcides Escobar (SS): is half way through his first major league season after taking over for former all-star shortstop J.J. Hardy. Escobar is on the roster more for his glove than his bat so the Brewers are willing to deal with his .241 batting average as long as he still continues to flash the leather. Plus, Escobar is only a rookie so he will undoubtedly improvement at the plate.

#9 (6) - Randy Wolf (LHP): is a mere 5-7 over 16 starts eating up only 97 innings and amassing a pedestrian 4.92 ERA. This should come as no surprise though since Wolf was moving from a pitcher friendly park (Dodger Stadium) to a hitter friendly park (Miller Park). In fairness Wolf has owned up to his struggles but he does have $30 million reasons to own up to it though. Wolf needs to pick it up in the second half of 2010 so that he doesn't prove my proclamation correct that he is the left-handed Jeff Suppan.

#8 (5) - Casey McGehee (3B): with a year and half as the starting 3rd baseman for the Brewers under his belt Chicago Cubs general manager Jim Hendry must be kicking themselves for letting McGehee go. McGehee is only earning $427,500 this year and cannot become a free agent till after 2014. On the flip side, current Cubs 3rd baseman Aramis Ramirez is schedule to earn $16.75 million in 2010, has a $14.6 million player option in 2011 that he will no doubt pick-up, and a $16 million club option (with a $2 million buyout) in 2012. That means if the Cubs thought long-term they could have kept McGehee in the fold to take over at third base half way through 2011. Instead the Brewers are reaping the benefits, thank you very much Jim Hendry.

#7 (NR) - Kameron Loe (RHP): is taking over the primary set-up role with ease. Loe is 0-0 in 13 appearances over 16.2 innings with a minuscule .54 ERA. It is delusional to think that Loe can continue to pitch that well but with bullpen mainstays like Coffey and Hawkins faltering or on the disabled list, Loe has been the perfect set-up man for new closer John Axford.

#6 (7) - Rickie Weeks (2B): has 13 home runs this year, which is 3rd most on the team and slightly ahead of sluggers like Braun (11) and McGehee (12). Unfortunately Weeks is a lead off hitter that is only hitting .274 with an on base percentage of .373. Weeks has one more year of salary arbitration before he becomes a free agent after the 2011 season. That means a big second half of 2010 will likely net Weeks a healthy contract extension despite his injury history.

#5 (9) - Corey Hart (RF): after winning his salary arbitration case, Hart is earning $4.8 million this year. Hart is backing up the arbitration win much to chigrin of Brewers fans. Hart is leading the 2010 Brewers is home runs (18) and slugging percentage (.571). 2011 is Hart's last salary arbitration year before he becomes a free agent so the second half of 2010 will go a long way to determining Hart's future in Milwaukee. Much like Weeks, Hart needs to continue to improve on those power numbers if he wants an extension before the end of 2011.

#4 (NR) - John Axford (RHP): is 3-1 with 8 saves in 18 appearances over 21 innings amassing a 3.00 ERA. In my 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Spring Training Preview I grouped players by position. Within each position group I put them in one of three categories: guaranteed, borderline, and long-shots to make the opening day 25-man roster. Both Loe and Axford were long-shots to make the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster. Luckily Loe and Axford have produced despite the Brewers having low expectations for both because without them the Brewers bullpen would be in shambles.

#3 (2) Prince Fielder (1B): of course Fielder is having somewhat of a down year by his standards when the Brewers are looking to trade him. That means it is going to be a slow march towards the 2011 off-season when Fielder is scheduled to become a free agent. Fielder is earning $11 million in 2010 and will get a sizable raise through salary arbitration in 2011. Any team that acquires Fielder from now till the 2011 trade deadline will be merely renting Fielder because Fielder's agent is the often-loathed mega-agent Scott Boras. Let me reiterate the stance that I have had for over a year on what to do with Fielder. Keep Fielder until after 2011. If Fielder decides not to resign with the Brewers, take the compensatory picks. There is a slim chance that someone will offer the Brewers young pitching for Fielder, but I am not holding out too much hope. Young pitching trumps young hitting in the post-steroids era especially when the young hitter in question is overweight, short for his position, and represented by Scott Boras.

#2 (3) Yovani Gallardo (RHP): signed a hefty contract extension at the start of the season. Gallardo signed a five-year, $30.1 million contract with a $13 million club option ($.6 million buyout) that could make it a six-year contract. Gallardo can void the 6th year if he accumulates 6 points between 2010 and 2014. Gallardo earns 5 points for winning a Cy Young Award, 3 points for finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting, and 1 point for finishing 3rd the Cy Young voting. I like the contract in general but have two small critiques of the contract. One, Gallardo missed most of 2008 with a torn ACL on a freak collision at Wrigley Field so the Brewers hopefully factored that into their long-term plans for dealing with Gallardo. Two, I dislike that it is so back-loaded. I understand inflation, but Gallardo deserves more money in 2010 and less money in 2014. If I were in charge of the Brewers (consider this part of my resume), I would have evened out the contract to make it go up very little on an annual basis for team salary predictability. Gallardo is justifying the extension by going 8-3 over 17 starts eating up 109.0 innings while amassing a 2.56 ERA and nearly doubling all other Brewer starters with 120 strikeouts. For how horrible the Brewers have drafted pitchers over the last decade, Gallardo is the Hope Diamond amongst cubic zirconia in the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers starting rotation.

#1 (1) Ryan Braun (LF): it can't be reiterated enough how sweet of a deal Doug Melvin got when he extended Ryan Braun early on in his career. Take a look back at one of my first Sunday Funday posts where I dissected Braun's contract from almost every angle imaginable. If the Brewers do in fact lose Fielder soon, Braun is going to struggle unless Hart or McGehee go on a tear. Either way, Braun has been the Brewers most consistent player this year.

I will have reactions to what players Doug Melvin calls up in September when the rosters expand as well as my final player ranking at the end of the 2010 season. Check back for more Milwaukee Brewers coverage in the coming weeks when it is warranted.

Ranking 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster

Congrats to these 25 guys (and 4 guys on the disabled list) that made the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster...it is truly a Sunday Funday for them:

Pitchers (12): Dave Bush (R), Todd Coffey (R), Doug Davis (L), Yovani Gallardo (R), LaTroy Hawkins (R), Trevor Hoffman (R), Chris Narveson (L), Manny Parra (L), Mitch Stetter (L), Claudio Vargas (R), Carlos Villanueva (R), and Randy Wolf (L).

Catchers (2): George Kottaras and Gregg Zaun.

Infielders (6): Craig Counsell (UTIL), Alcides Escobar (SS), Prince Fielder (1B), Joe Inglett (UTIL), Casey McGehee (3B), and Rickie Weeks (2B).

Outfielders (5): Ryan Braun (LF), Jim Edmonds (CF), Jody Gerut (UTIL), Carlos Gomez (CF), and Corey Hart (RF).

Disabled List: Jeff Suppan (RHP), David Riske (RHP), Josh Butler (RHP), and Mat Gamel (3B).

Take a look back at my predictions of which players would make the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster. Keep in mind I made my predictions at the start of spring training on February 24, 2010 and I was still 23 of 24 (since Jeff Suppan started the season on the DL). I predicted the Brewers would keep Scott Schoeneweis (LHP) instead of Chris Narveson (LHP). The Brewers made the right decision keeping Narveson, he was much more impressive than Schoeneweis in spring training and rightly deserved to make the team ahead of Schoeneweis.

With the niceties out of the way, here is how I rank the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster:

#25) Joe Inglett (UTIL): much like Jose Canseco, minus the steroids and antics, I feel vindicated that Doug Melvin kept Inglett on the 25-man opening day roster. If you look back at my pre-spring training predictions from February 24, 2010 I called that Inglett would make the roster. As you can see, I don't think Inglett brings much to the table since I ranked him 25th out of 25 guys...I am just happy my prediction came true.

#24) Claudio Vargas (RHP): after coming over from the L.A. Dodgers in 2009, Vargas was almost unhittable: 1.78 ERA in 28 appearances over 30.1 innings. That performance lead the Brewers to offer Vargas a one-year, $900,000 contract but the Brewers have a number of right-handed arms in the bullpen that are better than Vargas so he better perform if he wants to stay in Milwaukee for the entire season.

#23) Jody Gerut (OF): it still blows me away that Doug Melvin traded Tony Gwynn Jr. (27 years old) to the San Diego Padres for Gerut (32 years old). Melvin said he traded Tony Gwynn Jr. because of his offensive deficiencies but Gerut hit .236 last year for the Brewers while Gwynn hit .270 for the Padres.

#22) Jim Edmonds (CF): it pains me (and my buddy Gaber even more) that Edmonds is playing for the Brewers. The fact that the Brewers have to rely on a 40 year old guy that didn't even play baseball last year does not bode well for the season...or the three guys ranked below Edmonds.

#21) Carlos Villanueva (RHP): is the Bill Hall of pitchers. The Brewers cannot decide where to pitch Villanueva (starter, long relief, set-up man, or closer) and it has adversely impacted his progression. Much like Stetter, Villanueva is one of the only relievers with minor league options so he might have a cup of coffee in Triple-A depending on how he starts the season.

#20) George Kottaras (C): may be the quietest pick-up by Melvin in the off-season could loom large since Zaun turns 75 this season. Luckily for the Brewers, Boston waived Kottaras in favor of bringing back the carcus of Jason Varitek.

#19) Mitch Stetter (LHP): has been an effective situational reliever against left-handed hitters but will have to show he can get left and right-handed hitters if he wants to stay in the majors. Stetter could get sent down to Triple-A when the injury bug hits the Brewers because he still has minor league options.

#18) Manny Parra (LHP): similar to Rickie Weeks, its time for Parra to produce. Every year Parra has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy but every year he never backs up that potential with actual production. If Parra had minor league options he would have started the season in Triple-A, unfortunately the Brewers don't have that luxury.

#17) Chris Narveson (LHP): not too sure if this is more about Narveson being out of minor league options or the Brewers thinking he can be effective out of the pen or as a starter once someone goes on the disabled list?

#16) LaTroy Hawkins (RHP): similar to my Suppan/Wolf comparison above...Hawkins reminds me of Dave Riske...oh dang.

#15) Gregg Zaun (C): not too sure why Melvin decided to "save money" on the catcher position by bringing in Zaun, who turns 39 this season, to start for the first time in his career. Why not bring back Kendall even if it costs you $1 million more than Zaun? It’s as if Melvin bought a bunch of expensive cars (Wolf, Hawkins, and Davis) but balked at filling it with premium unleaded and filled it with regular unleaded instead.

#14) Doug Davis (LHP): I feel horrible for Doug Davis and his family that Doug has battled serious health problems the last few years. That said, Doug Melvin knew about Davis' health issues, so why did he offer Davis a contract? Plus, Davis is possibly the slowest, most deliberate pitcher in baseball which means I will skip watching any of his starts live.

#13) Craig Counsell (UTIL): despite turning 40 this season, the Brewers had to bring Counsell back after he hit .285 in 130 games over 404 at-bats in 2009. Counsell filled in admirably at second base after Weeks was predictably lost for the season. Counsell reminds me of Richard Alpert from Lost...he doesn't age.

#12) Dave Bush (RHP): had his 2009 season cut short when he took a line drive off his pitching elbow. Bush looks fully recovered and should become a consistent middle of the rotation guy in a left-hand dominated starting rotation.

#11) Carlos Gomez (CF): is the player the Brewers got from the Minnesota Twins for J.J. Hardy. Gomez was the key player the Minnesota Twins received from the New York Mets for Johan Santana but has yet to produce consistently in the majors. Much like Rickie Weeks, Gomez has the potential to be a dynamic player but has not capitalized on that potential.

#10) Alcides Escobar (SS): the Brewers traded former fan favorite J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins to make way for Escobar. There is no question that Escobar is one of the best defensive shortstops in MLB, the question is whether Escobar can produce on offense?

#9) Corey Hart (RF): some guys get by on talent despite being seemingly devoid of common sense...Corey Hart is that guy. Case and point, why did Hart wait until the start of spring training to correct his vision problems? Hart somehow won his salary arbitration hearing so unless he performs, Brewers fans will make him the #2 whipping boy behind Jeff Suppan.

#8) Todd Coffey (RHP): has been a bullpen workhorse for the Brewers since Doug Melvin claimed Coffey off waivers from Cincinnati in 2008. If I were Ken Macha, Coffey would be my set-up guy for closer Trevor Hoffman.

#7) Rickie Weeks (2B): at some point Weeks has to produce on the major league level like he did in college. Weeks has an amazing skill set but in five major league seasons he has only played more than 100 games twice.

#6) Randy Wolf (LHP): I hope I am wrong but I am on record as saying that Wolf is the left-handed Jeff Suppan. Wolf is owed a little less than $30 million over the next three seasons and the Brewers do not even view Wolf as a #1 starter. Wolf is Exhibit A for how costly it can be if you do not develop pitching through the farm system.

#5) Casey McGehee (3B): was not even penciled in to start at 3rd base for the Brewers and still ended up finishing 5th in the National League Rookie of the Year Award. Will 2009 be a flash in the pan for McGehee or did the Brewers finally identify an everyday 3rd basemen?

#4) Trevor Hoffman (RHP): with the lack of pitching depth in the Brewers' farm system, every Brewer fan better hope that old age does not catch up with Hoffman this season.

#3) Yovani Gallardo (RHP): the Brewers have struggled mightily to draft pitchers but Gallardo is the exception to those struggles. Gallardo is a legitimate #1 starter in the making and Doug Melvin should lock him up long-term as long as it is not a Teddy Higuera type contract. I actually think Higuera and his progeny are still under contract with the Brewers through 2050.

#2) Prince Fielder (1B): the first half of 2010 will determine where Prince plays the next 8 seasons of his career. The two variables that will intersect throughout the first half of the season are Prince's production and the Brewers' record. If the Brewers fall out of playoff contention by the All-Star break, Doug Melvin will be forced to trade Prince since Prince's value will only diminish the closer he gets to free agency at the end of the 2011 season.

#1) Ryan Braun (LF): in case you missed it, check out my Sunday Funday - Ryan Braun's Contract from last week to see how grossly underpaid Braun is for being the best player on the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers. When the Brewers moved Braun from 3rd base to left field, Braun took his offense to another level. I know it is early in Braun's career but if he continues on his current trajectory, Braun has a chance to go down as one of the all-time Brewer greats.

If you have read this far I want to thank you for supporting my rambling thoughts. Check back throughout the season for updates to the rankings because the Brewers have not played a meaningful baseball game in 2010 yet so the rankings will probably look drastically different as the season goes on.

2010 Milwaukee Brewers Spring Training Preview

The 2010 Milwaukee Brewers enter spring training with 57 players in contention for 25 roster spots. Absent injury, 15 roster spots are already locked down leaving 10 available roster spots. Below you will find a quick rundown of what 57 players are competing for the 25 roster spots along with my pre-spring training predictions of which players will make the opening day roster.

Lots of things can change between now and when the Brewers open their 2010 campaign on Monday, April 5, 2010 against the Colorado Rockies at Miller Park. Check back throughout spring training for a much more in-depth look at each player and position battle. In the mean time, here is a quick look at the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers heading into spring training:

Catcher:
- Guaranteed: Gregg Zaun
- Borderline: George Kottaras, Jonathan Lucroy, and Angel Salome
- Long-shot: Martin Maldonado and Matt Treanor

Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: The Brewers will keep 2 catchers with the back-up catcher race the most wide open competition of spring training. Both Lucroy and Salome look to be in the Brewers long-term plans if they can stay healthy. That said, both would be much better served catching games in the minor leagues instead of starting once a week and occasionally pinch hitting at the major league level in 2010. As a result, my prediction is that the Brewers will keep Zaun and Kottaras.


Infielders:
- Guaranteed: Craig Counsell (UTIL), Alcides Escobar (SS), Prince Fielder (1B), Casey McGehee (3B), and Rickie Weeks (2B)
- Borderline: Mat Gamel (3B)
- Long-shot: Luis Cruz (SS), Adam Heether (UTIL), Joe Inglett (UTIL), and Hernan Iribarren (2B)

Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: Again, absent major injury, 5 of the 6 infield positions are set in stone. That leaves the debate of whether to give Mat Gamel regular playing time in the minor leagues to let him develop or keep him on the major league roster. Besides monitoring McGehee's recovery from odd-season surgery, another interesting thing to keep an eye on throughout spring training is the production of Joe Inglett. What makes Inglett intriguing is his versatility, Inglett plays can play almost anywhere on the field besides catcher. If Inglett has a really productive spring the Brewers might keep Inglett, which would allow the Brewers to carry another relief pitcher. I know it is a bold prediction but I am going out on a limb here and saying the Brewers will keep Inglett as their 6th infielder along with Counsell, Escobar, Fielder, McGehee, and Weeks.


Outfielders:
- Guaranteed: Ryan Braun (LF), Carlos Gomez (CF), and Corey Hart (RF)
- Borderline: Jody Gerut (UTIL) and Jim Edmonds (CF)
- Long-shot: Lorenzo Cain (CF), Trent Oeltjen (LF), Logan Schafer (CF), and Adam Stern (LF)

Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: Since I already went out on a limb above and said the Brewers will keep Inglett as their 5th outfielder/6th infielder that only leaves 4 outfield spots. Outside of the 3 penciled in starters (Braun, Gomez, and Hart), Jody Gerut's ability to play all three outfield positions should make him the 4th outfielder on the Brewers 25-man roster. If Jim Edmonds shows anything in the spring he will make the roster as the 5th outfielder which will be a hard pill for many Brewers fans to swallow...its Jim Edmonds, need I say more?


Starting Pitching:
- Guaranteed: Doug Davis (L), Yovani Gallardo (R), and Randy Wolf (L)
- Borderline: Dave Bush (R), Manny Parra (L), and Jeff Suppan (R)
- Long-shot: Eric Arnett (R), Josh Butler (R), Chris Capuano (L), Marco Estrada (R), Kyle Heckathorn (R), Chris Narveson (L), Alex Periard (R), Amaury Rivas (R), Mark Rogers (R), Cody Scarpetta (R)

Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: The Brewers will most likely keep 6 starting pitchers to start the season if everyone stays healthy. The reason the Brewers might keep 6 is that they are handcuffed with Suppan, Parra, and Bush. Jeff Suppan is in the last year of a huge contract that pays him $12.5 million so it will be hard to bounce him from the rotation. Manny Parra is out of minor league options so the Brewers have to keep him on the opening day roster, place him on the disabled list or grant him his outright release. Finally, Dave Bush will not take kindly to getting sent down to the minors. As a result, my prediction is that the Brewers will keep Bush, Davis, Gallardo, Parra, Suppan, and Wolf with Suppan serving in the long relief role to start the season.


Relief Pitching:
- Guaranteed: Todd Coffey (R), LaTroy Hawkins (R), Trevor Hoffman (R)
- Borderline: Scott Schoeneweis (L), Mitch Stetter (L), Claudio Vargas (R), and Carlos Villanueva (R)
- Long-shot: John Axford (R), Zach Braddock (L), Tim Dillard (R), John Halama (L), Kameron Loe (R), Chuck Lofgren (L), A.J. Murray (L), David Riske (R), Chris Smith (R)

Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: The Brewers would traditionally keep 7 relievers but since I predicted they will keep 6 starting pitchers that leaves only 7 bullpen spots (assuming my Inglett prediction comes true). As a result, my prediction is that the Brewers put Riske on the disabled list to start the season and keep Coffey, Hawkins, Hoffman, Schoeneweis, Stetter, Vargas, and Villanueva. Note this means I am going out on a limb and predicting that the Brewers will carry 13 pitchers and 12 position players.


Opening Day Lineup:
1. Rickie Weeks (2B)
2. Corey Hart (RF)
3. Ryan Braun (LF)
4. Prince Fielder (1B)
5. Casey McGehee (3B)
6. Gregg Zaun (C)
7. Carlos Gomez (CF)
8. Yovani Gallardo (P)
9. Alcides Escobar (SS)

Starting Rotation:
1. Yovani Gallardo (R)
2. Randy Wolf (L)
3. Doug Davis (L)
4. Dave Bush (R)
5. Manny Parra (L)

Closer:
1. Trevor Hoffman (R)
2. Todd Coffey (R)
3. LaTroy Hawkins (R)