Building The 25 - 2014 Milwaukee Brewers Spring Training Preview

Welcome to my fifth annual Milwaukee Brewers spring training preview (2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013).  The Brewers enter spring training with at least 58 players in contention for The 25. Absent injury, 16 roster spots on The 25 are virtual locks, which leaves nine available roster spots.  That is the most roster spots on The 25 "available" going into spring training since 2010.  Below you will find a quick analysis of the entire roster heading into spring training along with my pre-spring training thoughts on what players Brewers general manager Doug Melvin should keep on The 25.

Catcher:
- Guaranteed: Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonado
- Borderline: None
- Long-shot: Robinzon Diaz, Cameron Garfield, Matt Pagnozzi, and Adam Weisenburger
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: This is the least dramatic battle of spring training given that the Brewers seem committed to Lucroy and Maldonado for the near term.  At one point it looked like Maldonado might be a nice trade piece but he struggled last season so absent a huge change, Maldonado better bring something more to the table than quality haircuts if he wants a spot on The 25 past 2014.

Infielders:
- Guaranteed: Scooter Gennett (2B), Aramis Ramirez (1B), and Jean Segura (SS)
- Borderline: Jeff Bianchi (UTL), Taylor Green (3B), Juan Francisco (1B), Elian Herrera (UTL), Lyle Overbay (1B), Mark Reynolds (1B/3B), and Rickie Weeks (2B)
- Long-shot: Irving Falu (2B), Hector Gomez (SS), Sean Halton (1B), Hunter Morris (1B), Jason Rogers (UTL), and Eugenio Velez (UTL)
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: If healthy, I see the left side of the infield settled much like the catcher spot with Segura at shortstop and Ramirez at third base.  Unfortunately the right side of the infield is anything but settled.  The Brewers want to play Gennett at second but they have a ton of money invested in Weeks.  Thus the Brewers hope Weeks has a huge spring training and another team suffers a serious injury at second base so they can move Weeks for a low-level prospect and some salary relief, but the likelihood of both of those things happening are fairly low so the Brewers will most likely keep Gennett and Weeks on The 25.  If you think second base is unsettled, first based is even worse.  The three front-runners seem to be Francisco, Overbay, and Reynolds.  Overbay and Reynolds might help this season but are not long-term answers at first base while Francisco could be a long-term answer if he figures out some plate discipline and how to play defense.  At some point the Brewers need to see what they have in Morris, which will not happen this year given all the other left-handed hitting first basemen currently ahead of him on the depth chart.  Although I am still a long-term believer in Francisco, I would give Overbay and Reynolds the inside track on making The 25 ahead of Francisco at this point.  With all due respect to Weeks, I hope a change of scenery helps him fulfill the promise that was expected of him the last two season so at this point I would keep Bianchi, Gennett, Herrera, Ramirez, Reynolds and Segura.

Outfielders:
- Guaranteed: Ryan Braun (RF), Khris Davis (LF), and Carlos Gomez (CF)
- Borderline: Caleb Gindl (OF) and Logan Schafer (OF)
- Long-shot: Kentrail Davis (OF), Mitch Haniger (OF), and Kevin Mattison (OF)
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: The Brewers moved Ryan Braun to right field and traded outfielder Nori Aoki to the Kansas City Royals to make way for Khris Davis to start in left field.  Professional baseball players are constantly under tons of pressure to perform.  Given all the changes the Brewers made to get Davis into the starting lineup after only 136 major league at-bats in 56 games in 2013, I almost feel like the Brewers are setting him up to fail.  That doesn't even factor in that Gomez will likely regress from his 8.9 WAR performance last season given that his previous high watermark was 2.3 WAR.  Plus Braun, the unfortunate face of the franchise for the next decade, is returning for a 65-game suspension for getting caught using PED's.  I see the Brewers keeping Schafer as their fourth outfielder unless Gindl has a huge spring training but the more important thing to watch is how the starting outfielders perform to open 2014.

Starting Pitching:
- Guaranteed: Marco Estrada (R), Yovani Gallardo (R), Matt Garza (R), Kyle Lohse (R), and Wily Peralta (R)
- Borderline: None
- Long-shot: None
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: Melvin locked in the starting rotation when he drastically overpaid Garza instead of keeping the 5th spot in the rotation open for a cost-effective competition between guys like Fiers and Thornburg.  Making all five guys locks for The 25 is based on all five starting pitchers staying healthy through spring training.  If that turns out to be true, for how anticlimactic the starting rotation competition will be, the fight for the seven spots in the bullpen will be very interesting.

Relief Pitching:
- Guaranteed: Tom Gorzelanny (L), Jim Henderson (R), and Francisco Rodríguez (R)
- Borderline: Zach Duke (L), Mike Fiers (R), Brandon Kintzler (R), Will Smith (L), Tyler Thornburg (R), Wei-Chung Wang (L), and Rob Wooten (R)
- Long-shot: Michael Blazek (R), Hiram Burgos (R), Jose De La Torre (R), Alfredo Figaro (R), David Goforth (R), Brooks Hall (R), Donovan Hand (R), Johnny Hellweg (R), Dustin Molleken (R), Jimmy Nelson (R), Michael Olmsted (R), Ariel Pena (R), and Kevin Shackelford (R)
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: The Brewers will give Duke, Smith, and Wang every chance to make The 25 for different reasons.  Duke will most likely ask for his release if he does not make The 25, there will be egg on Melvin's face if Smith struggles since he gave up Aoki to get his services, and Wang must be offered back to the Pittsburgh Pirates if he doesn't make The 25.  I would personally keep Duke, Gorzelanny, Henderson, Kintzler, Rodriguez, Smith, and Wooten.  That would allow Thornburg to keep his arm stretched out as the ace of the starting rotation of their minor league AAA affiliate.

Opening Day Lineup:
1. Carlos Gomez (CF)
2. Jean Segura (SS)
3. Ryan Braun (RF)
4. Aramis Ramirez (3B)
5. Mark Reynolds (1B)
6. Jonathan Lucroy (C)
7. Scotter Gennett (2B)
8. Khris Davis (LF)
9. Matt Garza (R)

Starting Rotation:
1. Matt Garza (R)
2. Kyle Lohse (R)
3. Yovani Gallardo (R)
4. Wily Peralta (R)
5. Marco Estrada (R)

Closer:
1. Jim Henderson (R)
2. Francisco Rodríguez (R)

If Melvin makes any more big signings or trades, check back for full coverage in this space.  If Melvin proceeds with the status quo throughout spring training, make sure to check back on opening day for my initial The 25 post.

Building The 25 - K-Rod Returns, Again

In Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin's annual reconstruction of the bullpen he decided to add Francisco Rodriguez (K-Rod) to The 25 for the third time in the last four years.  K-Rod signed a one-year deal with a $3.25 million base salary and $500,000 in incentives.  Although $3.25 million feels a too rich for a player K-Rod's ability, thankfully the Brewers only inked him to a one-year deal.

For kicks let's trace the relationship between K-Rod and the Brewers.  Melvin originally traded for K-Rod following the 2011 All-Star break to bolster the bullpen for a playoff run.  K-Rod pitched well in 2011 but struggled in 2012, which kept him out of baseball to start the 2013 season.  The Brewers brought K-Rod back last season when their closer spot was in disarray due to John Axford's struggles.  K-Rod performed well, which allowed the Brewers to trade him to the Baltimore Orioles for minor league third-baseman Nick Delmonico.  K-Rod struggled for the Orioles, which is part of the reason he was still available so close to the start of spring training this season.

With K-Rod in the fold, apparently the Brewers are planning to start the season with Jim Henderson as their closer but K-Rod would most likely be the next option if Henderson struggles.  After that the Brewers do not have another viable option at closer, which shows you the lack of depth the Brewers currently have in their bullpen.  Given all the young arms the Brewers have in their farm system that project as middle to end of the rotation starters, Melvin should start looking at whether any of those guys could help in the bullpen over the next few years in preparation for starting down the road.

While I don't love the K-Rod signing, I like it much more than the Garza signing or the Aoki trade.  I presume this is Melvin's last big addition to The 25 before spring training.  If not, check back for full coverage in this space.  If things remain quiet for the next week, make sure to check back on the eve of pitchers and catchers reporting for my traditional spring training preview for the Brewers.

Building The 25 - Brewers drastically overpay Garza

Up until a few days ago the only significant moves Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin made to The 25 were two separate trades. Melvin traded away relief pitcher Burke Badenhop and outfielder Norichika Aoki for what amounted to a couple left-handed pitching lottery tickets in Luis Ortega and Will Myers respectively.  Towards the middle of last week I even discussed how proud I was of Melvin showing fiscal restraint instead of handing out huge free agent contracts this off-season as a peace offering for what the team put their fans through last season.

Well it was all too good to be true.  Late last week reports leaked that the Brewers signed free agent starting pitcher Matt Garza to a four-year, $52 million deal.  The Brewers initially refuted that report via Twitter, which gave me hope that Melvin was rethinking whether to break the first of the five rules I gave him for how to build The 25 for 2014.  Ultimately the Brewers and Garza agreed to a four-year, $50 million deal could end up being a five-year, $67 million deal.  The Brewers ultimately announced the signing at the team's annual fan fest, which was free this year as a peace offering for what the team put their fans through last season.

Before I breakdown the largest contract ever given to a starting pitcher in Brewers franchise history in more depth, I thought I would give a little background on the starting pitching situation for the Brewers before the Garza signing to show why they did not need to overpay yet another free agent starting pitcher.  Going into the off-season, four of the five spots in their starting rotation were set essentially set in stone: Kyle Lohse, Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada.  The fifth spot in the rotation looked like it was going to be a competition between guys currently in the farm system with the strongest candidates being Hiram Burgos, Mike Fiers, Johnny Hellweg, Jimmy Nelson, and Tyler Thornburg.  After the Brewers traded for Smith and signed Zach Duke to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. the Brewers had a ton of legitimate candidates fighting for the final starting spot in the rotation and the long relief role in the bullpen.

With Garza on The 25, if healthy, the starting rotation will be Garza, Lohse, Gallardo, Peralta, and Estrada in some order.  Given that the Brewers are not really in a win-now mode, I would much rather see them go into spring training with all their young guys fighting for the final spot in the rotation.  If one of the five odds on starters gets hurt in spring training, pending some drastic change in the performance in spring training, I would give Thornburg the first chance followed by Fiers, Burgos, Smith, Nelson, Hellweg, and Duke.

The first four years of Garza's deal are fairly straightforward with him earning $12.5 million in each of those years.  The only real quirks of the first four years of the deal is that Garza deferred $2 million each year that is paid annually on December 15th starting in 2018 through 2021.  Besides that, Garza can earn an extra $500,000 each time he starts 30 games or throws 190 innings in a season over the first four years of the deal.  If Garza achieves all of that, it makes the first four years of the deal worth $54 million.  The fifth year of this deal in 2018 is where this deal gets complicated.

According to Cot's on Contracts, Garza has a $13 million vesting option in 2018 if he meets three conditions in the first four years of the deal: starts 110 games, throws at least 115 innings in 2017, and does NOT end the 2017 season on the disabled list.  If Garza does NOT satisfy all three conditions, there are two other potential outcomes.  One, if Garza spends an extended period of time on the disabled list during the first four years of the deal, which is defined as 130 days over 183 day period of time, the Brewers can retain Garza's services for just $1 million in 2018.  Two, if Garza does not spend an extended period of time on the disabled list the Brewers can exercise their team option to retain his services in 2018 for $5 million.

As I discussed when I reviewed the Aoki/Smith trade, a win on the free agent market costs $6 million.  Leaving 2018 aside for now that means Garza will have to produce at least two wins above replacement (WAR) a season to justify his contract from 2014-2017.  Garza put together impressive seasons in 2008 (3.3 WAR) and 2009 (3.5 WAR).  After that, Garza's WAR numbers didn't break two besides 2011 (2.8 WAR). Last season Garza registered 1.4 WAR thanks mostly to pitching well for the Chicago Cubs following a long stint on the disabled list to the start the season.  The Cubs traded Garza to the Texas Rangers but Garza struggled for the Ranger.  Since Garza was traded mid-season last year the one silver lining is that unlike when owner Mark Attanasio signed Lohse to a three-year, $33 million deal last year, the Brewers did not forfeit their first round pick in the 2014 MLB Draft to sign Garza.

Unless Garza finds a legal fountain of youth that can also keep him healthy, the Brewers severely overpaid him each of the first four years of the deal.  Given how injury prone Garza has been throughout his career the only good part of the Garza deal is that the Brewers made the $13 million vesting option for the fifth year contingent on Garza staying healthy throughout the entire deal, which seems highly unlikely given his long injury history.

The Brewers are now paying six players on The 25 at least $10 million in 2014: Lohse ($11 million), right fielder Ryan Braun ($11 million), Gallardo ($11.5 million), second baseman Rickie Weeks ($12 million), Garza ($12.5 million), and third basemen Aramis Ramirez ($16 million).  Luckily Weeks, Ramirez, and possibly Gallaro ($13 million club option with $600,000 buyout) come off the books in 2015 so the Brewers can clean-up their bloated 2014 payroll.

I expect things to be quiet on the personal front until pitchers and catchers report on February 15th but if the Brewers decide to grossly overpay another veteran like they did with the Garza signing, make sure to check back for full coverage in this space.