There were grumblings that Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin was trying to make a C.C. Sabathia-esque splash at the trade deadline to help the Brewers push The 25 to the next level. David Price (formerly) of the Tampa Bay Rays was the C.C. Sabathia of this trade deadline given that both are dominate left-handed starting pitchers. The only difference between 2014 Price and 2008 Sabathia are their contractual situations. When the Brewers acquired Sabathia from the Cleveland Indians at the 2008 trade deadline, they knew it was a rental for just that season since Sabathia was due to become a free agent at the end of the season. Conversely, Price is signed through next season so that increases his value slightly over 2008 Sabathia.
The Brewers gave up outfielder Michael Brantley, pitcher Rob Bryson, pitcher Zach Jackson and first-baseman Matt LaPorta to get Sabathia. At the time LaPorta was the centerpiece of the trade but Michael Brantley (actually the "player to be named later" in the trade that is usually a short-list of guys that the Indians could choose from later) ended up being the best of the bunch. Ultimately the Rays moved Price to the Detroit Tigers in a three-team deal that also involved the Seattle Mariners. The Rays got left-handed pitcher Drew Smyly and minor league infielder Willy Adames from the Tigers as well as infielder Nick Franklin from the Mariners. The Mariners got center-fielder Austin Jackson from the Tigers.
Just to muddy the waters a little more, the compensation rules were slightly different when the Brewers acquired Sabathia than they are now, which increased Sabathia's value despite the fact that the Brewers knew there was a 1% chance that Sabathia would re-sign with them. All the Brewers had to do after the season was tender Sabathia a one-year, qualifying offer so they would at least get draft pick compensation for "losing" Sabathia to free agency. There was virtually no chance that Sabathia was going to accept a one-year offer given how much he could command on the free agent market so the qualifying offer was always a farce.
Ultimately Sabathia signed an eight-year, $186 million contract with the New York Yankees and the Brewers got 39th pick in the 2009 MLB Draft as compensation, which they used to select outfielder Kentrail Davis. Right now Davis is stuck in Double-A, which is disappointing given his draft status. Unless Davis can pick things up in the next year, I do not see him as a part of the long-terms plans at the big league level for the Brewers. That trick to get draft pick compensation is no longer an option under the new collective bargaining agreement. In order to get draft pick compensation under the new CBA, a player has to be on The 25 for at least one season. That means the Tigers will get draft pick compensation if they lose Price after next season but the Brewers would not have gotten draft pick compensation if they lost Sabathia in 2014 like they did in 2008.
Instead of making a splash, Melvin made a slight ripple when he acquired outfielder Gerardo Parra from the Arizona Diamondbacks for minor-leaguers Anthony Banda (left-handed pitcher) and Mitch Haniger (outfielder). Although Parra has struggled offensively this season hitting just .259, he is two-time Gold Glove winner so we know he can field his position. Parra also gives the Brewers a left-handed bat in the outfield that they desperately need since each of their starters (Kris Davis, Carlos Gomez, and Ryan Braun) hits from the right side. In terms of Parra's contract situation, the Brewers have him under team control through 2015 if they like but if Parra declines that tender after the 2015 season and signs elsewhere, at least the Brewers can get draft pick compensation if they tender him for the next two seasons.
In terms of what the Brewers gave up, Hainger is clearly the better of the two prospects. The Brewers drafted Hainger 38th overall in the 2012 MLB Draft and is one of the better prospects in their somewhat disappointing farm system. So far Hainger has been alright hitting .255 in Double-A this season. This trade finally allows the Diamondbacks to get Banda. Originally the Diamondbacks drafted Banda in the 33rd round of the 2011 MLB Draft but Banda did not sign so he entered the 2012 MLB Draft and the Brewers took Banda in the 10th round of that draft. So far Banda has been decent in 2014 posting a 3.66 ERA in Single-A so far this season.
Hainger projects as a utility outfielder while Banda does not project as anything better than a left-handed reliever so that doesn't seem like too much to give up to get a legitimate 4th outfielder, especially since their current 4th outfielder Logan Schafer is batting a measly .183 this season. Plus, current starting left-fielder Kris Davis is hitting just .232 against right-handers while Parra is hitting .271 against right handers so I see the Brewers platooning Davis and Parra the rest of 2014 with Davis starting against left-handers and Parra starting against right-handers.
If Melvin just held onto outfielder Nori Aoki instead of trading him for left-hander Will Smith, there would have been no need to acquire Parra. At the time of the Aoki/Smith trade I hated it but given how well Smith has pitched this year out of the bullpen, the Aoki/Smith trade does not look as bad now as I thought it would. Landing Parra is not a Sabathia-esque acquisition but clearly the asking price for Price (no pun intended) was too high for the Brewers given that their farm system is so devoid of high-end talent that I am not even sure they could have made the Rays a legitimate offer for Price. Truthfully it is just nice to see the Brewers in a pennant race and thus buyers at the trade deadline instead of sellers.
Although training camp is starting for the Green Bay Packers so I will have a ton of Packers posts, I will do my best to post more on the Brewers thru the end of the season given that they are in the midst of one of the most pleasantly surprising seasons in the last decade as they make a legitimate run at winning the N.L. Central and making the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
Showing posts with label Building The 25. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Building The 25. Show all posts
Friday, August 1, 2014
Friday, February 14, 2014
Building The 25 - 2014 Milwaukee Brewers Spring Training Preview
Welcome to my fifth annual Milwaukee Brewers spring training preview (2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013). The Brewers enter spring training with at least 58
players in contention for The 25. Absent injury, 16 roster
spots on The 25 are virtual locks, which leaves nine available roster spots. That is the most roster spots on The 25 "available" going into spring training since 2010. Below
you will find a quick analysis of the entire roster heading into spring
training along with my pre-spring training thoughts on what players Brewers general manager Doug Melvin should keep on The 25.
Catcher:
- Guaranteed: Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonado
- Borderline: None
- Long-shot: Robinzon Diaz, Cameron Garfield, Matt Pagnozzi, and Adam Weisenburger
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: This is the least dramatic battle of spring training given that the Brewers seem committed to Lucroy and Maldonado for the near term. At one point it looked like Maldonado might be a nice trade piece but he struggled last season so absent a huge change, Maldonado better bring something more to the table than quality haircuts if he wants a spot on The 25 past 2014.
Infielders:
- Guaranteed: Scooter Gennett (2B), Aramis Ramirez (1B), and Jean Segura (SS)
- Borderline: Jeff Bianchi (UTL), Taylor Green (3B), Juan Francisco (1B), Elian Herrera (UTL), Lyle Overbay (1B), Mark Reynolds (1B/3B), and Rickie Weeks (2B)
- Long-shot: Irving Falu (2B), Hector Gomez (SS), Sean Halton (1B), Hunter Morris (1B), Jason Rogers (UTL), and Eugenio Velez (UTL)
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: If healthy, I see the left side of the infield settled much like the catcher spot with Segura at shortstop and Ramirez at third base. Unfortunately the right side of the infield is anything but settled. The Brewers want to play Gennett at second but they have a ton of money invested in Weeks. Thus the Brewers hope Weeks has a huge spring training and another team suffers a serious injury at second base so they can move Weeks for a low-level prospect and some salary relief, but the likelihood of both of those things happening are fairly low so the Brewers will most likely keep Gennett and Weeks on The 25. If you think second base is unsettled, first based is even worse. The three front-runners seem to be Francisco, Overbay, and Reynolds. Overbay and Reynolds might help this season but are not long-term answers at first base while Francisco could be a long-term answer if he figures out some plate discipline and how to play defense. At some point the Brewers need to see what they have in Morris, which will not happen this year given all the other left-handed hitting first basemen currently ahead of him on the depth chart. Although I am still a long-term believer in Francisco, I would give Overbay and Reynolds the inside track on making The 25 ahead of Francisco at this point. With all due respect to Weeks, I hope a change of scenery helps him fulfill the promise that was expected of him the last two season so at this point I would keep Bianchi, Gennett, Herrera, Ramirez, Reynolds and Segura.
Outfielders:
- Guaranteed: Ryan Braun (RF), Khris Davis (LF), and Carlos Gomez (CF)
- Borderline: Caleb Gindl (OF) and Logan Schafer (OF)
- Long-shot: Kentrail Davis (OF), Mitch Haniger (OF), and Kevin Mattison (OF)
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: The Brewers moved Ryan Braun to right field and traded outfielder Nori Aoki to the Kansas City Royals to make way for Khris Davis to start in left field. Professional baseball players are constantly under tons of pressure to perform. Given all the changes the Brewers made to get Davis into the starting lineup after only 136 major league at-bats in 56 games in 2013, I almost feel like the Brewers are setting him up to fail. That doesn't even factor in that Gomez will likely regress from his 8.9 WAR performance last season given that his previous high watermark was 2.3 WAR. Plus Braun, the unfortunate face of the franchise for the next decade, is returning for a 65-game suspension for getting caught using PED's. I see the Brewers keeping Schafer as their fourth outfielder unless Gindl has a huge spring training but the more important thing to watch is how the starting outfielders perform to open 2014.
Starting Pitching:
- Guaranteed: Marco Estrada (R), Yovani Gallardo (R), Matt Garza (R), Kyle Lohse (R), and Wily Peralta (R)
- Borderline: None
- Long-shot: None
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: Melvin locked in the starting rotation when he drastically overpaid Garza instead of keeping the 5th spot in the rotation open for a cost-effective competition between guys like Fiers and Thornburg. Making all five guys locks for The 25 is based on all five starting pitchers staying healthy through spring training. If that turns out to be true, for how anticlimactic the starting rotation competition will be, the fight for the seven spots in the bullpen will be very interesting.
Relief Pitching:
- Guaranteed: Tom Gorzelanny (L), Jim Henderson (R), and Francisco RodrÃguez (R)
- Borderline: Zach Duke (L), Mike Fiers (R), Brandon Kintzler (R), Will Smith (L), Tyler Thornburg (R), Wei-Chung Wang (L), and Rob Wooten (R)
- Long-shot: Michael Blazek (R), Hiram Burgos (R), Jose De La Torre (R), Alfredo Figaro (R), David Goforth (R), Brooks Hall (R), Donovan Hand (R), Johnny Hellweg (R), Dustin Molleken (R), Jimmy Nelson (R), Michael Olmsted (R), Ariel Pena (R), and Kevin Shackelford (R)
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: The Brewers will give Duke, Smith, and Wang every chance to make The 25 for different reasons. Duke will most likely ask for his release if he does not make The 25, there will be egg on Melvin's face if Smith struggles since he gave up Aoki to get his services, and Wang must be offered back to the Pittsburgh Pirates if he doesn't make The 25. I would personally keep Duke, Gorzelanny, Henderson, Kintzler, Rodriguez, Smith, and Wooten. That would allow Thornburg to keep his arm stretched out as the ace of the starting rotation of their minor league AAA affiliate.
Opening Day Lineup:
1. Carlos Gomez (CF)
2. Jean Segura (SS)
3. Ryan Braun (RF)
4. Aramis Ramirez (3B)
5. Mark Reynolds (1B)
6. Jonathan Lucroy (C)
7. Scotter Gennett (2B)
8. Khris Davis (LF)
9. Matt Garza (R)
Starting Rotation:
1. Matt Garza (R)
2. Kyle Lohse (R)
3. Yovani Gallardo (R)
4. Wily Peralta (R)
5. Marco Estrada (R)
Closer:
1. Jim Henderson (R)
2. Francisco RodrÃguez (R)
If Melvin makes any more big signings or trades, check back for full coverage in this space. If Melvin proceeds with the status quo throughout spring training, make sure to check back on opening day for my initial The 25 post.
Catcher:
- Guaranteed: Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonado
- Borderline: None
- Long-shot: Robinzon Diaz, Cameron Garfield, Matt Pagnozzi, and Adam Weisenburger
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: This is the least dramatic battle of spring training given that the Brewers seem committed to Lucroy and Maldonado for the near term. At one point it looked like Maldonado might be a nice trade piece but he struggled last season so absent a huge change, Maldonado better bring something more to the table than quality haircuts if he wants a spot on The 25 past 2014.
Infielders:
- Guaranteed: Scooter Gennett (2B), Aramis Ramirez (1B), and Jean Segura (SS)
- Borderline: Jeff Bianchi (UTL), Taylor Green (3B), Juan Francisco (1B), Elian Herrera (UTL), Lyle Overbay (1B), Mark Reynolds (1B/3B), and Rickie Weeks (2B)
- Long-shot: Irving Falu (2B), Hector Gomez (SS), Sean Halton (1B), Hunter Morris (1B), Jason Rogers (UTL), and Eugenio Velez (UTL)
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: If healthy, I see the left side of the infield settled much like the catcher spot with Segura at shortstop and Ramirez at third base. Unfortunately the right side of the infield is anything but settled. The Brewers want to play Gennett at second but they have a ton of money invested in Weeks. Thus the Brewers hope Weeks has a huge spring training and another team suffers a serious injury at second base so they can move Weeks for a low-level prospect and some salary relief, but the likelihood of both of those things happening are fairly low so the Brewers will most likely keep Gennett and Weeks on The 25. If you think second base is unsettled, first based is even worse. The three front-runners seem to be Francisco, Overbay, and Reynolds. Overbay and Reynolds might help this season but are not long-term answers at first base while Francisco could be a long-term answer if he figures out some plate discipline and how to play defense. At some point the Brewers need to see what they have in Morris, which will not happen this year given all the other left-handed hitting first basemen currently ahead of him on the depth chart. Although I am still a long-term believer in Francisco, I would give Overbay and Reynolds the inside track on making The 25 ahead of Francisco at this point. With all due respect to Weeks, I hope a change of scenery helps him fulfill the promise that was expected of him the last two season so at this point I would keep Bianchi, Gennett, Herrera, Ramirez, Reynolds and Segura.
Outfielders:
- Guaranteed: Ryan Braun (RF), Khris Davis (LF), and Carlos Gomez (CF)
- Borderline: Caleb Gindl (OF) and Logan Schafer (OF)
- Long-shot: Kentrail Davis (OF), Mitch Haniger (OF), and Kevin Mattison (OF)
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: The Brewers moved Ryan Braun to right field and traded outfielder Nori Aoki to the Kansas City Royals to make way for Khris Davis to start in left field. Professional baseball players are constantly under tons of pressure to perform. Given all the changes the Brewers made to get Davis into the starting lineup after only 136 major league at-bats in 56 games in 2013, I almost feel like the Brewers are setting him up to fail. That doesn't even factor in that Gomez will likely regress from his 8.9 WAR performance last season given that his previous high watermark was 2.3 WAR. Plus Braun, the unfortunate face of the franchise for the next decade, is returning for a 65-game suspension for getting caught using PED's. I see the Brewers keeping Schafer as their fourth outfielder unless Gindl has a huge spring training but the more important thing to watch is how the starting outfielders perform to open 2014.
Starting Pitching:
- Guaranteed: Marco Estrada (R), Yovani Gallardo (R), Matt Garza (R), Kyle Lohse (R), and Wily Peralta (R)
- Borderline: None
- Long-shot: None
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: Melvin locked in the starting rotation when he drastically overpaid Garza instead of keeping the 5th spot in the rotation open for a cost-effective competition between guys like Fiers and Thornburg. Making all five guys locks for The 25 is based on all five starting pitchers staying healthy through spring training. If that turns out to be true, for how anticlimactic the starting rotation competition will be, the fight for the seven spots in the bullpen will be very interesting.
Relief Pitching:
- Guaranteed: Tom Gorzelanny (L), Jim Henderson (R), and Francisco RodrÃguez (R)
- Borderline: Zach Duke (L), Mike Fiers (R), Brandon Kintzler (R), Will Smith (L), Tyler Thornburg (R), Wei-Chung Wang (L), and Rob Wooten (R)
- Long-shot: Michael Blazek (R), Hiram Burgos (R), Jose De La Torre (R), Alfredo Figaro (R), David Goforth (R), Brooks Hall (R), Donovan Hand (R), Johnny Hellweg (R), Dustin Molleken (R), Jimmy Nelson (R), Michael Olmsted (R), Ariel Pena (R), and Kevin Shackelford (R)
- Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: The Brewers will give Duke, Smith, and Wang every chance to make The 25 for different reasons. Duke will most likely ask for his release if he does not make The 25, there will be egg on Melvin's face if Smith struggles since he gave up Aoki to get his services, and Wang must be offered back to the Pittsburgh Pirates if he doesn't make The 25. I would personally keep Duke, Gorzelanny, Henderson, Kintzler, Rodriguez, Smith, and Wooten. That would allow Thornburg to keep his arm stretched out as the ace of the starting rotation of their minor league AAA affiliate.
Opening Day Lineup:
1. Carlos Gomez (CF)
2. Jean Segura (SS)
3. Ryan Braun (RF)
4. Aramis Ramirez (3B)
5. Mark Reynolds (1B)
6. Jonathan Lucroy (C)
7. Scotter Gennett (2B)
8. Khris Davis (LF)
9. Matt Garza (R)
Starting Rotation:
1. Matt Garza (R)
2. Kyle Lohse (R)
3. Yovani Gallardo (R)
4. Wily Peralta (R)
5. Marco Estrada (R)
Closer:
1. Jim Henderson (R)
2. Francisco RodrÃguez (R)
If Melvin makes any more big signings or trades, check back for full coverage in this space. If Melvin proceeds with the status quo throughout spring training, make sure to check back on opening day for my initial The 25 post.
Saturday, February 8, 2014
Building The 25 - K-Rod Returns, Again
In Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin's annual reconstruction of the bullpen he decided to add Francisco Rodriguez (K-Rod) to The 25 for the third time in the last four years. K-Rod signed a one-year deal with a $3.25 million base salary and $500,000 in incentives. Although $3.25 million feels a too rich for a player K-Rod's ability, thankfully the Brewers only inked him to a one-year deal.
For kicks let's trace the relationship between K-Rod and the Brewers. Melvin originally traded for K-Rod following the 2011 All-Star break to bolster the bullpen for a playoff run. K-Rod pitched well in 2011 but struggled in 2012, which kept him out of baseball to start the 2013 season. The Brewers brought K-Rod back last season when their closer spot was in disarray due to John Axford's struggles. K-Rod performed well, which allowed the Brewers to trade him to the Baltimore Orioles for minor league third-baseman Nick Delmonico. K-Rod struggled for the Orioles, which is part of the reason he was still available so close to the start of spring training this season.
With K-Rod in the fold, apparently the Brewers are planning to start the season with Jim Henderson as their closer but K-Rod would most likely be the next option if Henderson struggles. After that the Brewers do not have another viable option at closer, which shows you the lack of depth the Brewers currently have in their bullpen. Given all the young arms the Brewers have in their farm system that project as middle to end of the rotation starters, Melvin should start looking at whether any of those guys could help in the bullpen over the next few years in preparation for starting down the road.
While I don't love the K-Rod signing, I like it much more than the Garza signing or the Aoki trade. I presume this is Melvin's last big addition to The 25 before spring training. If not, check back for full coverage in this space. If things remain quiet for the next week, make sure to check back on the eve of pitchers and catchers reporting for my traditional spring training preview for the Brewers.
For kicks let's trace the relationship between K-Rod and the Brewers. Melvin originally traded for K-Rod following the 2011 All-Star break to bolster the bullpen for a playoff run. K-Rod pitched well in 2011 but struggled in 2012, which kept him out of baseball to start the 2013 season. The Brewers brought K-Rod back last season when their closer spot was in disarray due to John Axford's struggles. K-Rod performed well, which allowed the Brewers to trade him to the Baltimore Orioles for minor league third-baseman Nick Delmonico. K-Rod struggled for the Orioles, which is part of the reason he was still available so close to the start of spring training this season.
With K-Rod in the fold, apparently the Brewers are planning to start the season with Jim Henderson as their closer but K-Rod would most likely be the next option if Henderson struggles. After that the Brewers do not have another viable option at closer, which shows you the lack of depth the Brewers currently have in their bullpen. Given all the young arms the Brewers have in their farm system that project as middle to end of the rotation starters, Melvin should start looking at whether any of those guys could help in the bullpen over the next few years in preparation for starting down the road.
While I don't love the K-Rod signing, I like it much more than the Garza signing or the Aoki trade. I presume this is Melvin's last big addition to The 25 before spring training. If not, check back for full coverage in this space. If things remain quiet for the next week, make sure to check back on the eve of pitchers and catchers reporting for my traditional spring training preview for the Brewers.
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Building The 25 - Brewers drastically overpay Garza
Up until a few days ago the only significant moves Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin made to The 25 were two separate trades. Melvin traded away relief pitcher Burke Badenhop and outfielder Norichika Aoki for what amounted to a couple left-handed pitching lottery tickets in Luis Ortega and Will Myers respectively. Towards the middle of last week I even discussed how proud I was of Melvin showing fiscal restraint instead of handing out huge free agent contracts this off-season as a peace offering for what the team put their fans through last season.
Well it was all too good to be true. Late last week reports leaked that the Brewers signed free agent starting pitcher Matt Garza to a four-year, $52 million deal. The Brewers initially refuted that report via Twitter, which gave me hope that Melvin was rethinking whether to break the first of the five rules I gave him for how to build The 25 for 2014. Ultimately the Brewers and Garza agreed to a four-year, $50 million deal could end up being a five-year, $67 million deal. The Brewers ultimately announced the signing at the team's annual fan fest, which was free this year as a peace offering for what the team put their fans through last season.
Before I breakdown the largest contract ever given to a starting pitcher in Brewers franchise history in more depth, I thought I would give a little background on the starting pitching situation for the Brewers before the Garza signing to show why they did not need to overpay yet another free agent starting pitcher. Going into the off-season, four of the five spots in their starting rotation were set essentially set in stone: Kyle Lohse, Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada. The fifth spot in the rotation looked like it was going to be a competition between guys currently in the farm system with the strongest candidates being Hiram Burgos, Mike Fiers, Johnny Hellweg, Jimmy Nelson, and Tyler Thornburg. After the Brewers traded for Smith and signed Zach Duke to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. the Brewers had a ton of legitimate candidates fighting for the final starting spot in the rotation and the long relief role in the bullpen.
With Garza on The 25, if healthy, the starting rotation will be Garza, Lohse, Gallardo, Peralta, and Estrada in some order. Given that the Brewers are not really in a win-now mode, I would much rather see them go into spring training with all their young guys fighting for the final spot in the rotation. If one of the five odds on starters gets hurt in spring training, pending some drastic change in the performance in spring training, I would give Thornburg the first chance followed by Fiers, Burgos, Smith, Nelson, Hellweg, and Duke.
The first four years of Garza's deal are fairly straightforward with him earning $12.5 million in each of those years. The only real quirks of the first four years of the deal is that Garza deferred $2 million each year that is paid annually on December 15th starting in 2018 through 2021. Besides that, Garza can earn an extra $500,000 each time he starts 30 games or throws 190 innings in a season over the first four years of the deal. If Garza achieves all of that, it makes the first four years of the deal worth $54 million. The fifth year of this deal in 2018 is where this deal gets complicated.
According to Cot's on Contracts, Garza has a $13 million vesting option in 2018 if he meets three conditions in the first four years of the deal: starts 110 games, throws at least 115 innings in 2017, and does NOT end the 2017 season on the disabled list. If Garza does NOT satisfy all three conditions, there are two other potential outcomes. One, if Garza spends an extended period of time on the disabled list during the first four years of the deal, which is defined as 130 days over 183 day period of time, the Brewers can retain Garza's services for just $1 million in 2018. Two, if Garza does not spend an extended period of time on the disabled list the Brewers can exercise their team option to retain his services in 2018 for $5 million.
As I discussed when I reviewed the Aoki/Smith trade, a win on the free agent market costs $6 million. Leaving 2018 aside for now that means Garza will have to produce at least two wins above replacement (WAR) a season to justify his contract from 2014-2017. Garza put together impressive seasons in 2008 (3.3 WAR) and 2009 (3.5 WAR). After that, Garza's WAR numbers didn't break two besides 2011 (2.8 WAR). Last season Garza registered 1.4 WAR thanks mostly to pitching well for the Chicago Cubs following a long stint on the disabled list to the start the season. The Cubs traded Garza to the Texas Rangers but Garza struggled for the Ranger. Since Garza was traded mid-season last year the one silver lining is that unlike when owner Mark Attanasio signed Lohse to a three-year, $33 million deal last year, the Brewers did not forfeit their first round pick in the 2014 MLB Draft to sign Garza.
Unless Garza finds a legal fountain of youth that can also keep him healthy, the Brewers severely overpaid him each of the first four years of the deal. Given how injury prone Garza has been throughout his career the only good part of the Garza deal is that the Brewers made the $13 million vesting option for the fifth year contingent on Garza staying healthy throughout the entire deal, which seems highly unlikely given his long injury history.
The Brewers are now paying six players on The 25 at least $10 million in 2014: Lohse ($11 million), right fielder Ryan Braun ($11 million), Gallardo ($11.5 million), second baseman Rickie Weeks ($12 million), Garza ($12.5 million), and third basemen Aramis Ramirez ($16 million). Luckily Weeks, Ramirez, and possibly Gallaro ($13 million club option with $600,000 buyout) come off the books in 2015 so the Brewers can clean-up their bloated 2014 payroll.
I expect things to be quiet on the personal front until pitchers and catchers report on February 15th but if the Brewers decide to grossly overpay another veteran like they did with the Garza signing, make sure to check back for full coverage in this space.
Well it was all too good to be true. Late last week reports leaked that the Brewers signed free agent starting pitcher Matt Garza to a four-year, $52 million deal. The Brewers initially refuted that report via Twitter, which gave me hope that Melvin was rethinking whether to break the first of the five rules I gave him for how to build The 25 for 2014. Ultimately the Brewers and Garza agreed to a four-year, $50 million deal could end up being a five-year, $67 million deal. The Brewers ultimately announced the signing at the team's annual fan fest, which was free this year as a peace offering for what the team put their fans through last season.
Before I breakdown the largest contract ever given to a starting pitcher in Brewers franchise history in more depth, I thought I would give a little background on the starting pitching situation for the Brewers before the Garza signing to show why they did not need to overpay yet another free agent starting pitcher. Going into the off-season, four of the five spots in their starting rotation were set essentially set in stone: Kyle Lohse, Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada. The fifth spot in the rotation looked like it was going to be a competition between guys currently in the farm system with the strongest candidates being Hiram Burgos, Mike Fiers, Johnny Hellweg, Jimmy Nelson, and Tyler Thornburg. After the Brewers traded for Smith and signed Zach Duke to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. the Brewers had a ton of legitimate candidates fighting for the final starting spot in the rotation and the long relief role in the bullpen.
With Garza on The 25, if healthy, the starting rotation will be Garza, Lohse, Gallardo, Peralta, and Estrada in some order. Given that the Brewers are not really in a win-now mode, I would much rather see them go into spring training with all their young guys fighting for the final spot in the rotation. If one of the five odds on starters gets hurt in spring training, pending some drastic change in the performance in spring training, I would give Thornburg the first chance followed by Fiers, Burgos, Smith, Nelson, Hellweg, and Duke.
The first four years of Garza's deal are fairly straightforward with him earning $12.5 million in each of those years. The only real quirks of the first four years of the deal is that Garza deferred $2 million each year that is paid annually on December 15th starting in 2018 through 2021. Besides that, Garza can earn an extra $500,000 each time he starts 30 games or throws 190 innings in a season over the first four years of the deal. If Garza achieves all of that, it makes the first four years of the deal worth $54 million. The fifth year of this deal in 2018 is where this deal gets complicated.
According to Cot's on Contracts, Garza has a $13 million vesting option in 2018 if he meets three conditions in the first four years of the deal: starts 110 games, throws at least 115 innings in 2017, and does NOT end the 2017 season on the disabled list. If Garza does NOT satisfy all three conditions, there are two other potential outcomes. One, if Garza spends an extended period of time on the disabled list during the first four years of the deal, which is defined as 130 days over 183 day period of time, the Brewers can retain Garza's services for just $1 million in 2018. Two, if Garza does not spend an extended period of time on the disabled list the Brewers can exercise their team option to retain his services in 2018 for $5 million.
As I discussed when I reviewed the Aoki/Smith trade, a win on the free agent market costs $6 million. Leaving 2018 aside for now that means Garza will have to produce at least two wins above replacement (WAR) a season to justify his contract from 2014-2017. Garza put together impressive seasons in 2008 (3.3 WAR) and 2009 (3.5 WAR). After that, Garza's WAR numbers didn't break two besides 2011 (2.8 WAR). Last season Garza registered 1.4 WAR thanks mostly to pitching well for the Chicago Cubs following a long stint on the disabled list to the start the season. The Cubs traded Garza to the Texas Rangers but Garza struggled for the Ranger. Since Garza was traded mid-season last year the one silver lining is that unlike when owner Mark Attanasio signed Lohse to a three-year, $33 million deal last year, the Brewers did not forfeit their first round pick in the 2014 MLB Draft to sign Garza.
Unless Garza finds a legal fountain of youth that can also keep him healthy, the Brewers severely overpaid him each of the first four years of the deal. Given how injury prone Garza has been throughout his career the only good part of the Garza deal is that the Brewers made the $13 million vesting option for the fifth year contingent on Garza staying healthy throughout the entire deal, which seems highly unlikely given his long injury history.
The Brewers are now paying six players on The 25 at least $10 million in 2014: Lohse ($11 million), right fielder Ryan Braun ($11 million), Gallardo ($11.5 million), second baseman Rickie Weeks ($12 million), Garza ($12.5 million), and third basemen Aramis Ramirez ($16 million). Luckily Weeks, Ramirez, and possibly Gallaro ($13 million club option with $600,000 buyout) come off the books in 2015 so the Brewers can clean-up their bloated 2014 payroll.
I expect things to be quiet on the personal front until pitchers and catchers report on February 15th but if the Brewers decide to grossly overpay another veteran like they did with the Garza signing, make sure to check back for full coverage in this space.
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Building The 25 - Melvin shows fiscal restraint
Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin avoided salary arbitration with right-handed starting pitcher Marco Estrada and first/third baseman Juan Francisco when he signed both to one-year deals essentially guaranteeing each a spot on The 25 for 2014. Estrada, in his second year of salary arbitration, signed a one-year deal worth $3.3 million. Francisco, in his first year of salary arbitration, signed a one-year deal worth $1.35 million. Sure either player could have tried for slightly more money via the arbitration process but that usually only results in a slight bump for players of their stature and it comes at the expense of hearing the club rip apart your resume in the arbitration hearing.
More important than the deal just discussed, Melvin signed a ton of guys throughout the month of January to minor league contracts with an invite to spring training, which are exactly the kind of deals that I encouraged Melvin to sign in my advice to him for how to build The 25 for 2014. The three most notable names that Melvin signed to the low-risk, potentially high-reward deals are left-handed pitcher Zach Duke, first/third baseman Mark Reynolds, and first baseman Lyle Overbay.
As a rookie Duke posted a 1.81 era and 3.4 wins above replacement (WAR) in just 14 starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2005. That performance was good enough for Duke to finish fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting that season while current Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks finished tied for sixth. Duke posted a 4.47 ERA and 2.7 WAR in 34 starts the following year. Unfortunately following such a promising start to his career, Duke only posted one other season of above 2 WAR, which happened in 2009. Since then Duke battled injuries and ineffectiveness as he played for a number of teams. There is still a chance that Duke can turn things around given that he does not turn 31 till after the start of the 2014 season, which is why I am fine with Melvin taking a flyer on Duke.
After losing Corey Hart to the Seattle Mariners, the Brewers were left with Juan Francisco, Sean Halton, and Hunter Morris fighting for the starting spot at first base. If I were in charge, I would give Morris every chance to win the starting job at first base even though he struggled a bit moving from AA to AAA last season. Instead of giving Morris a chance, it looks like the Brewers are going to give a pair a guys that played first based for the New York Yankees last season in Reynolds and Overbay every chance to make The 25 this season.
Reynolds posted some impressive offensive WAR numbers early in his career but those came with severe strikeouts problems and defensive limitations that made him a little more than above average major leaguer despite his impressive offensive numbers. The upshot with Reynolds is that much like Duke, he is not going to turn 31 until after the start of the 2014 season so I like that low-risk (one-year, $2 million deal with $500,00 in incentives) signing as well.
The Brewers originally added Overbay to The 25 along with Chris Capuano, Craig Counsell, Chad Moeller, Jorge De La Rosa and Junior Spivey in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks for Shane Nance, Richie Sexson, and Noochie Varner. After two successful offensive campaigns with the Brewers in 2005 and 2006, the Brewers traded Overbay along with Ty Taubenheim to the Toronto Blue Jays for Dave Bush, Gabe Gross and Zach Jackson. I can't say this often but the Brewers went two-for-two in their Overbay related trades.
Ultimately I think Reynolds has the best shot to make The 25 even though the Brewers are more familiar with Overbay because teams rarely sign guys like Reynolds unless they are going to give them every chance to make The 25. The beauty of signing veterans to minor league contracts with an invite to spring training instead of splashing big money on free agents is that if they struggle in spring training, the Brewers can walkaway with almost zero financial ramifications. If a couple of the guys perform well in spring training, the Brewers bought themselves inexpensive veterans for 2014, which is the fiscally prudent move given that 2014 looks like it will be a transition year anyhow.
More important than the deal just discussed, Melvin signed a ton of guys throughout the month of January to minor league contracts with an invite to spring training, which are exactly the kind of deals that I encouraged Melvin to sign in my advice to him for how to build The 25 for 2014. The three most notable names that Melvin signed to the low-risk, potentially high-reward deals are left-handed pitcher Zach Duke, first/third baseman Mark Reynolds, and first baseman Lyle Overbay.
As a rookie Duke posted a 1.81 era and 3.4 wins above replacement (WAR) in just 14 starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2005. That performance was good enough for Duke to finish fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting that season while current Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks finished tied for sixth. Duke posted a 4.47 ERA and 2.7 WAR in 34 starts the following year. Unfortunately following such a promising start to his career, Duke only posted one other season of above 2 WAR, which happened in 2009. Since then Duke battled injuries and ineffectiveness as he played for a number of teams. There is still a chance that Duke can turn things around given that he does not turn 31 till after the start of the 2014 season, which is why I am fine with Melvin taking a flyer on Duke.
After losing Corey Hart to the Seattle Mariners, the Brewers were left with Juan Francisco, Sean Halton, and Hunter Morris fighting for the starting spot at first base. If I were in charge, I would give Morris every chance to win the starting job at first base even though he struggled a bit moving from AA to AAA last season. Instead of giving Morris a chance, it looks like the Brewers are going to give a pair a guys that played first based for the New York Yankees last season in Reynolds and Overbay every chance to make The 25 this season.
Reynolds posted some impressive offensive WAR numbers early in his career but those came with severe strikeouts problems and defensive limitations that made him a little more than above average major leaguer despite his impressive offensive numbers. The upshot with Reynolds is that much like Duke, he is not going to turn 31 until after the start of the 2014 season so I like that low-risk (one-year, $2 million deal with $500,00 in incentives) signing as well.
The Brewers originally added Overbay to The 25 along with Chris Capuano, Craig Counsell, Chad Moeller, Jorge De La Rosa and Junior Spivey in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks for Shane Nance, Richie Sexson, and Noochie Varner. After two successful offensive campaigns with the Brewers in 2005 and 2006, the Brewers traded Overbay along with Ty Taubenheim to the Toronto Blue Jays for Dave Bush, Gabe Gross and Zach Jackson. I can't say this often but the Brewers went two-for-two in their Overbay related trades.
Ultimately I think Reynolds has the best shot to make The 25 even though the Brewers are more familiar with Overbay because teams rarely sign guys like Reynolds unless they are going to give them every chance to make The 25. The beauty of signing veterans to minor league contracts with an invite to spring training instead of splashing big money on free agents is that if they struggle in spring training, the Brewers can walkaway with almost zero financial ramifications. If a couple of the guys perform well in spring training, the Brewers bought themselves inexpensive veterans for 2014, which is the fiscally prudent move given that 2014 looks like it will be a transition year anyhow.
Friday, December 6, 2013
Building The 25 - Brewers trade Aoki to Royals for Smith
Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin violated one of the five general rules that I gave him for how to approach this off-season when he traded starting right fielder Norichika Aoki to the Kansas City Royals for left-handed pitcher Will Smith. Let's table the fact that Aoki became a huge fan favorite in just two years in Milwaukee and evaluate the trade as objectively as possible.
Despite Aoki being 31 and Smith only being 24, they both only have two years of MLB experience because Aoki played professionally in Japan from 2004-11. Over the last two years Aoki put up seasons of 3.5 (2012) and 3.0 (2013) wins above replacement (WAR). After starting 16 games and throwing 89.2 innings for the Royals in 2012, Smith worked almost exclusively out of the bullpen in 2013 logging just 33.1 innings. That means over the last two years Smith put up 0.0 WAR, which means Smith was nothing better than a borderline major league baseball player while Aoki added 6.5 wins over that same time frame.
According to Jonah Keri's Baseball Dictionary for Grantland.com, a win on the open market costs $6 million, which made Aoki a steal for the Brewers the last two years since he produced 6.5 wins but only cost them $7.25 million ($2.5 million posting fee and $4.75 million in salary and performance bonuses). Yes, there is a chance that Aoki will regress in 2014 since he turns 32 before the start of the season but the Brewers only owed him a little less than $2 million. I know that Aoki was a seasoned professional when he joined the Brewers in 2012 while Smith was a young, developing left-handed but two years later it does not look like Smith has improved very much.
Sure Aoki is set to become a free agent after 2014 while Smith is not able to become a free agent until 2020 but my guess is that the Brewers could have extended Aoki through 2015 or 2016 for an average of $2.5 million a year. I am sure part of the reason the Brewers made the trade was that they wanted to give promising young outfielder Khris Davis a chance to start in 2014 but I am still not sure that justified trading Aoki for what amounts to a glorified lottery ticket. There was going to be a market for Aoki all the way up to the trade deadline at the end of July so if Davis proved he was worthy of starting over Aoki in 2014, the Brewers could have moved Aoki at some point before the trade deadline for a player like Smith. If Davis struggled, the Brewers could have kept Aoki at the trade deadline if they were in playoff contention.
Although I didn't like the Aoki for Smith deal because the Brewers traded a known commodity for what amounts to an enticing lottery ticket, I am not always against the Brewers making a trade for a lottery ticket. Earlier this off-season Melvin traded right-handed reliever Burke Badenhop to the Boston Red Sox for left-handed minor leaguer Luis Ortega. I didn't mind that deal since last season Badenhop was -0.3 wins above replacement while Ortega is a 20-year-older that had success in the lowest level of the minor leagues despite his slight build 5'10" and 155 lbs. There are tons of Bradenhops (below average relief pitchers) and Ortegas (young, left-handed pitcher) so I would rather role the dice on Ortega at the expense of Badenhop because Ortega's potentially higher ceiling.
Back to the Aoki/Smith deal for my final thoughts. Best case scenario Davis picks up in 2014 where he left off in 2013 and the Brewers bought low on a left-handed relief pitcher in Smith for 2014 that they can turn into a starter down the road. Worst case scenario, Davis and Smith struggle while Aoki continues to be Aoki. My best guess is that Davis is a slightly above average outfielder while Smith serves as a middle reliever in 2014, which is why I do not think Smith was enough for Melvin to get in return for Aoki.
Despite Aoki being 31 and Smith only being 24, they both only have two years of MLB experience because Aoki played professionally in Japan from 2004-11. Over the last two years Aoki put up seasons of 3.5 (2012) and 3.0 (2013) wins above replacement (WAR). After starting 16 games and throwing 89.2 innings for the Royals in 2012, Smith worked almost exclusively out of the bullpen in 2013 logging just 33.1 innings. That means over the last two years Smith put up 0.0 WAR, which means Smith was nothing better than a borderline major league baseball player while Aoki added 6.5 wins over that same time frame.
According to Jonah Keri's Baseball Dictionary for Grantland.com, a win on the open market costs $6 million, which made Aoki a steal for the Brewers the last two years since he produced 6.5 wins but only cost them $7.25 million ($2.5 million posting fee and $4.75 million in salary and performance bonuses). Yes, there is a chance that Aoki will regress in 2014 since he turns 32 before the start of the season but the Brewers only owed him a little less than $2 million. I know that Aoki was a seasoned professional when he joined the Brewers in 2012 while Smith was a young, developing left-handed but two years later it does not look like Smith has improved very much.
Sure Aoki is set to become a free agent after 2014 while Smith is not able to become a free agent until 2020 but my guess is that the Brewers could have extended Aoki through 2015 or 2016 for an average of $2.5 million a year. I am sure part of the reason the Brewers made the trade was that they wanted to give promising young outfielder Khris Davis a chance to start in 2014 but I am still not sure that justified trading Aoki for what amounts to a glorified lottery ticket. There was going to be a market for Aoki all the way up to the trade deadline at the end of July so if Davis proved he was worthy of starting over Aoki in 2014, the Brewers could have moved Aoki at some point before the trade deadline for a player like Smith. If Davis struggled, the Brewers could have kept Aoki at the trade deadline if they were in playoff contention.
Although I didn't like the Aoki for Smith deal because the Brewers traded a known commodity for what amounts to an enticing lottery ticket, I am not always against the Brewers making a trade for a lottery ticket. Earlier this off-season Melvin traded right-handed reliever Burke Badenhop to the Boston Red Sox for left-handed minor leaguer Luis Ortega. I didn't mind that deal since last season Badenhop was -0.3 wins above replacement while Ortega is a 20-year-older that had success in the lowest level of the minor leagues despite his slight build 5'10" and 155 lbs. There are tons of Bradenhops (below average relief pitchers) and Ortegas (young, left-handed pitcher) so I would rather role the dice on Ortega at the expense of Badenhop because Ortega's potentially higher ceiling.
Back to the Aoki/Smith deal for my final thoughts. Best case scenario Davis picks up in 2014 where he left off in 2013 and the Brewers bought low on a left-handed relief pitcher in Smith for 2014 that they can turn into a starter down the road. Worst case scenario, Davis and Smith struggle while Aoki continues to be Aoki. My best guess is that Davis is a slightly above average outfielder while Smith serves as a middle reliever in 2014, which is why I do not think Smith was enough for Melvin to get in return for Aoki.
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Building The 25 - Advice for Doug Melvin heading into 2014
Expectations were high for the Milwaukee Brewers going into 2013 but the season ended up being the most trying season in the last decade. The 65-game suspension of left fielder Ryan
Braun, the face of the franchise, exacerbated an already hopeless season. I have to admit that even before Braun's suspension, my
interest in following the team on a daily basis waned. I did my best to
keep up but the product that Brewers general manager Doug Melvin put on
the field was less than stellar despite having huge seasons from
shortstop Jean Segura and center fielder Carlos Gomez. All of that meant
I couldn't wait for the 2013 World Series to finish so that we can
look towards 2014.
The 2013 World Series pitted the Boston Red Sox against the St. Louis Cardinals. Going into the 2013 World Series, each team won two World Series titles in the last nine years. I know New England sports fans have become downright intolerable given that they've won a championship in each of the four major sports in the last decade but at least the Red Sox are not a divisional opponent like the Cardinals. From a Cheesehead perspective, if the Cardinals would have won the 2013 World Series, it would have been their third World Series in eight years. The Brewers have only made the playoffs twice over that time-frame without even coming close to winning a World Series so that meant I actually wanted to see the Red Sox win their third World Series title in the last decade.
Thankfully the Red Sox defeated the Cardinals in six games to win the 2013 World Series. I am sure you will read glowing takes on the 2013 World Series but I was quite underwhelmed with the play on the field even though all the games besides the first and last of the series were close. That may sound like sour grapes given what a nightmare last season was for the Brewers or it may be that my interest in baseball in general is decreasing. Either way, the one thing I know for sure is that with the 2013 World Series in the books, we can finally look towards the 2014 season.
Here are five general rules for how Melvin should approach the off-season to build The 25 for 2014. When Melvin starts making moves, I will review those decisions through the lenses of my five general rules. Without further adu, here are my five general rules for Melvin.
#1) Do NOT hand out any long-term, expensive contracts this off-seasons. Fan always clamor for general managers to sign the biggest free agents thinking that will be a long-term solution. Unfortunately in baseball, given that players are under team control for seven major league seasons, most free agents are already in decline when they are available for the other 29 MLB teams to sign. Before the start of last season Brewers owner Mark Attanasio apparently went behind Melvin's back to sign former Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Lohse to a three-year, $33 million contract that also cost the Brewers their first round pick in the 2013 MLB Draft. Although the Lohse signing will most likely not turn out as bad as the four-year, $42 million contract the Brewers gave former Cardinals starting pitcher Jeff Suppan, both show how much the Brewers have to overpay in the free agent market for starting pitchers on the decline. Even when the Brewers proactively lock in players long-term like they did with Braun twice, having those guaranteed deals on the books are always a risk too. The way MLB's revenue structure is so dependent on local revenue, small market teams like the Brewers can barely afford expensive, long-term deals. When those deals go bad like they did in Suppan's case, it hampers the franchise for a number of seasons, which is why they are not worth the risk for the Brewers.
#2) Give young players every chance to start, within reason. As mentioned above, there are varying reports on whether Attansio signed Lohse without consulting Melvin. Even if that is not true, Attanasio clearly did not believe in the starting pitchers that Melvin assembled going into 2013. In 2014 the Brewers need to see if Mike Fiers, Wily Peralta or Tyler Thornburg can finally give the Brewers a legitimate starting pitcher out of their farm system for the first time since Yovanni Gallardo. In terms of positional players, the Brewers are high on outfielder Khris Davis, second baseman Scooter Gennett, and shortstop Jean Segura. Of all the players just discussed, after just one season, Segura looks like a superstar in the making. The Brewers need to approach Segura soon about an extension because he is about to price himself out of any kind of Evan Longoria-eque six-year, $17.5 million contract that contained three expensive club options at the end of the six-year deal ($7.5 million in 2014 with $3 million buyout, $11 million in 2015, and 11.5 million in 2016). If that's the case, the Brewers might as well go year-to-yea with Segura knowing he will leave a free agent following the 2018 season.
#3) Hoard all cheap contracts. The Brewers have a couple of great contracts with right fielder Norichika Aoki signed to a two-year, $2.5 million contract with a club option for 2014 and catcher Jonathan Lucroy signed to five-year, $11 million through 2016 with a club option for 2017. The Brewers picked up what turned out to be a little less than $2 million option (thanks to some performance bonuses) on Aoki for 2014. That gives the Brewers a leadoff hitter and starting right fielder on the cheap. Although the Brewers like Davis and Aoki is in his early 30's, they should approach Aoki about signing a two or three year contract extension that averages around $2 million a season since he will be a free agent after 2014. In my previous general rule I said to give young players every chance to start so even if Davis is effective in the outfield in 2014, the Brewers could use Aoki as a 4th outfielder for the next couples seasons if they pay him $2 million or less a year. Moving to Lucroy, the Brewers have him under control for a manageable number though at least 2016. Even if injuries prevent Lucroy from catching through 2016, for how much they are paying him, they could move him to first base while having him serve as a backup catcher.
#4) Sign cheap, short-term deals to reload the bullpen. Almost every season Melvin remakes the bullpen with a combination of resurrecting careers of players that were left for dead like John Axford or signing somewhat cost-effective free agents like left-hander Tom Gorzelanny (two-years, $5.7 million). Part of why Melvin has to remake the bullpen is that the lack of quality starting pitching taxes the bullpen so by the end of the season, the bullpen arms are maxed out. I know it is fairly simplistic to say a bad starting rotation leads to a bad bullpen but it is true, which is why the Brewers need to see if they can actually build a starting rotation through their farm system to help them from burning out and rebuilding their bullpen on an annual basis.
#5) If you decide to ignore #1, at least sign players to front-end loaded deals. The Brewers signed third-baseman Aramis Ramirez to a three-year, $36 million contract. As a part of that deal Ramirez earned $6 million in 2012, $10 million in 2013, and is scheduled to earn $16 million in 2014 with $6 million of his 2014 compensation deferred into the future. Ramirez and the Brewers hold an expensive mutual option with a $4 million buyout for 2015. Sadly, Ramirez doesn't have the worst contract on the books for next season since often injured second basemen Rickie Weeks is hopefully finishing the four-year, $38.5 million deal he signed in February of 2011. Weeks earned $3.5 million in 2011, $10 million in 2012, $10 million in 2013, and is scheduled to earn $11 million in 2014. There is an $11.5 million vesting option for 2015 with a $1 million buyout that the Brewers will make sure does not vest. That means the Brewers will pay Ramirez and Weeks $5 million in 2015 to play elsewhere. I understand the time value of money but that runs completely contrary to the value players as they age. Although I still think baseball players will find a way to skirt MLB's testing and use performance enhancing drugs, long gone are the days of players in their mid-30's having "career" years. The Brewers need to stop getting stuck on the back end of horrible contracts like they are right now with Ramirez and Weeks. If those deals were front-end loaded, they could flip either of those guys to an American League team looking for a designated hitter in the midst of a playoff run for a pretty good minor league prospect. Instead the Brewers are mostly stuck with both guys unless they eat almost the entire contract in a trade that nets them a low-level minor league prospect.
Make sure to check back as the off-season unfolds for my full thoughts on each move made by Attanasio and/or Melvin viewed through the prism of the five general rules provided above.
The 2013 World Series pitted the Boston Red Sox against the St. Louis Cardinals. Going into the 2013 World Series, each team won two World Series titles in the last nine years. I know New England sports fans have become downright intolerable given that they've won a championship in each of the four major sports in the last decade but at least the Red Sox are not a divisional opponent like the Cardinals. From a Cheesehead perspective, if the Cardinals would have won the 2013 World Series, it would have been their third World Series in eight years. The Brewers have only made the playoffs twice over that time-frame without even coming close to winning a World Series so that meant I actually wanted to see the Red Sox win their third World Series title in the last decade.
Thankfully the Red Sox defeated the Cardinals in six games to win the 2013 World Series. I am sure you will read glowing takes on the 2013 World Series but I was quite underwhelmed with the play on the field even though all the games besides the first and last of the series were close. That may sound like sour grapes given what a nightmare last season was for the Brewers or it may be that my interest in baseball in general is decreasing. Either way, the one thing I know for sure is that with the 2013 World Series in the books, we can finally look towards the 2014 season.
Here are five general rules for how Melvin should approach the off-season to build The 25 for 2014. When Melvin starts making moves, I will review those decisions through the lenses of my five general rules. Without further adu, here are my five general rules for Melvin.
#1) Do NOT hand out any long-term, expensive contracts this off-seasons. Fan always clamor for general managers to sign the biggest free agents thinking that will be a long-term solution. Unfortunately in baseball, given that players are under team control for seven major league seasons, most free agents are already in decline when they are available for the other 29 MLB teams to sign. Before the start of last season Brewers owner Mark Attanasio apparently went behind Melvin's back to sign former Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Lohse to a three-year, $33 million contract that also cost the Brewers their first round pick in the 2013 MLB Draft. Although the Lohse signing will most likely not turn out as bad as the four-year, $42 million contract the Brewers gave former Cardinals starting pitcher Jeff Suppan, both show how much the Brewers have to overpay in the free agent market for starting pitchers on the decline. Even when the Brewers proactively lock in players long-term like they did with Braun twice, having those guaranteed deals on the books are always a risk too. The way MLB's revenue structure is so dependent on local revenue, small market teams like the Brewers can barely afford expensive, long-term deals. When those deals go bad like they did in Suppan's case, it hampers the franchise for a number of seasons, which is why they are not worth the risk for the Brewers.
#2) Give young players every chance to start, within reason. As mentioned above, there are varying reports on whether Attansio signed Lohse without consulting Melvin. Even if that is not true, Attanasio clearly did not believe in the starting pitchers that Melvin assembled going into 2013. In 2014 the Brewers need to see if Mike Fiers, Wily Peralta or Tyler Thornburg can finally give the Brewers a legitimate starting pitcher out of their farm system for the first time since Yovanni Gallardo. In terms of positional players, the Brewers are high on outfielder Khris Davis, second baseman Scooter Gennett, and shortstop Jean Segura. Of all the players just discussed, after just one season, Segura looks like a superstar in the making. The Brewers need to approach Segura soon about an extension because he is about to price himself out of any kind of Evan Longoria-eque six-year, $17.5 million contract that contained three expensive club options at the end of the six-year deal ($7.5 million in 2014 with $3 million buyout, $11 million in 2015, and 11.5 million in 2016). If that's the case, the Brewers might as well go year-to-yea with Segura knowing he will leave a free agent following the 2018 season.
#3) Hoard all cheap contracts. The Brewers have a couple of great contracts with right fielder Norichika Aoki signed to a two-year, $2.5 million contract with a club option for 2014 and catcher Jonathan Lucroy signed to five-year, $11 million through 2016 with a club option for 2017. The Brewers picked up what turned out to be a little less than $2 million option (thanks to some performance bonuses) on Aoki for 2014. That gives the Brewers a leadoff hitter and starting right fielder on the cheap. Although the Brewers like Davis and Aoki is in his early 30's, they should approach Aoki about signing a two or three year contract extension that averages around $2 million a season since he will be a free agent after 2014. In my previous general rule I said to give young players every chance to start so even if Davis is effective in the outfield in 2014, the Brewers could use Aoki as a 4th outfielder for the next couples seasons if they pay him $2 million or less a year. Moving to Lucroy, the Brewers have him under control for a manageable number though at least 2016. Even if injuries prevent Lucroy from catching through 2016, for how much they are paying him, they could move him to first base while having him serve as a backup catcher.
#4) Sign cheap, short-term deals to reload the bullpen. Almost every season Melvin remakes the bullpen with a combination of resurrecting careers of players that were left for dead like John Axford or signing somewhat cost-effective free agents like left-hander Tom Gorzelanny (two-years, $5.7 million). Part of why Melvin has to remake the bullpen is that the lack of quality starting pitching taxes the bullpen so by the end of the season, the bullpen arms are maxed out. I know it is fairly simplistic to say a bad starting rotation leads to a bad bullpen but it is true, which is why the Brewers need to see if they can actually build a starting rotation through their farm system to help them from burning out and rebuilding their bullpen on an annual basis.
#5) If you decide to ignore #1, at least sign players to front-end loaded deals. The Brewers signed third-baseman Aramis Ramirez to a three-year, $36 million contract. As a part of that deal Ramirez earned $6 million in 2012, $10 million in 2013, and is scheduled to earn $16 million in 2014 with $6 million of his 2014 compensation deferred into the future. Ramirez and the Brewers hold an expensive mutual option with a $4 million buyout for 2015. Sadly, Ramirez doesn't have the worst contract on the books for next season since often injured second basemen Rickie Weeks is hopefully finishing the four-year, $38.5 million deal he signed in February of 2011. Weeks earned $3.5 million in 2011, $10 million in 2012, $10 million in 2013, and is scheduled to earn $11 million in 2014. There is an $11.5 million vesting option for 2015 with a $1 million buyout that the Brewers will make sure does not vest. That means the Brewers will pay Ramirez and Weeks $5 million in 2015 to play elsewhere. I understand the time value of money but that runs completely contrary to the value players as they age. Although I still think baseball players will find a way to skirt MLB's testing and use performance enhancing drugs, long gone are the days of players in their mid-30's having "career" years. The Brewers need to stop getting stuck on the back end of horrible contracts like they are right now with Ramirez and Weeks. If those deals were front-end loaded, they could flip either of those guys to an American League team looking for a designated hitter in the midst of a playoff run for a pretty good minor league prospect. Instead the Brewers are mostly stuck with both guys unless they eat almost the entire contract in a trade that nets them a low-level minor league prospect.
Make sure to check back as the off-season unfolds for my full thoughts on each move made by Attanasio and/or Melvin viewed through the prism of the five general rules provided above.
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