Mike McCarthy's Swan Song

Well nothing like the Green Bay Packers effectively getting eliminated from the playoff picture before Thanksgiving to get me to post something for the first time in over a year and a half.  It only seems fitting that the Packers see that happen at CenturyLink Field against the Seattle Seahawks because that stadium has been a house of horrors for the Packers given that they haven't won there since 2008 and have gone 0-4, including the infamous Fail Mary game on Monday Night Football in 2012 that effectively put an end to the use of replacement NFL referees followed a few years later by the 2015 NFC Championship Game where the Packers snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory in one of the most painful losses in franchise history.

Honestly the crossroad that the Packers organization are at right now can be drawn directly back to that 2015 NFC Championship Game because that is the day that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, whether he will ever admit or not, lost faith in head coach Mike McCarthy because of how conservative McCarthy got with his in-game decisions when the Packers had a great chance to go to the Super Bowl.  Since then Rodgers has gotten into a number of sideline disagreements with McCarthy and taken a number of not so thinly veiled shots at McCarthy in press conferences. Don't get me wrong, Rodgers hasn't been perfect over the last few years but just look how the Packers have fared without Rodgers over that same time frame.  If McCarthy is in fact an offensive genius, he wouldn't have gone 3-6 with Brett Hundley under center in 2017.  Juxtapose that with the Philadelphia Eagles that won the Super Bowl last season without their franchise quarterback.  I understand that is not a completely fair comparison but seeing how last season played out for the Packers and Eagles shows you how dependent the Packers are on Rodgers.

With that as a backdrop, last off-season the Packers rightly moved on from general manager Ted Thompson.  The modern NFL had passed Thompson by given that he continued to rely solely on the draft as his means for building The 53.  It would be one thing if Thompson continued to nail more draft picks than not like he did earlier in his tenure but the last couple drafts have been littered with more misses than hits so the fact that Thompson continually refused to dip into free agency to add talent to The 53 meant that it was time to go in a new direction.

Packers President Mark Murphy had three very viable internal options to replace Thompson in Brian Gutekunst, Russ Ball, and Elliot Wolf.  Ultimately Murphy went with Gutekunst and "elevated" Ball to keep him in the organization despite passing him over for the job of general manager, which lead to Wolf leaving the Packers for the Cleveland Browns where he joined a number of former Packer front office folks to try to turn around the fortunes of one of the most tortured NFL franchises.  It is way too early to say that Murphy made the wrong choice in picking Gutekunst over Ball and Wolf.  That said, the day Gutekunst was named general manager, it was also announced that Gutekunst, Ball, and McCarthy would all report directly to Murphy.  If the 2015 NFC Championship Game was the beginning of the end for McCarthy and Rodgers, Murphy's decision to come up with a three-headed monster that report to him might be the beginning of the end for Murphy as well.  In almost everyone's eyes besides Murphy and Thompson, McCarthy should have been replaced years ago.  Instead of giving Gutekunst power over that decision, Murphy held onto that power and put McCarthy on the same level of the organizational chart as Gutekunst and Ball for some unknown reason.

With all of that as background, the clear next step is that McCarthy has to go and I mean before this Thanksgiving.   Yes, I know McCarthy has been with the Packers for a long time and won a Super Bowl but McCarthy's offense is Blockbuster-esque in how innovative it is and the Packers clearly need a Netflix-esque innovation on offense because the clock is ticking on Rodgers's tenure in Green Bay despite fact that he is under contract through 2023.  Don't get me wrong, Rodgers hasn't played up to his lofty standards in 2018 but one has nothing to do with the other.  While this might seem like a complicated decision on its face, the Packers committed to Rodgers with the richest contract in NFL history so I understand that the general rule is that management doesn't want players to run the team but there are exceptions to the rule and Rodgers has earned that right in more ways than one to be that exception.  When it comes down to it, if I had to choose Rodgers or McCarthy, I would choose Rodgers 100 times out of a 100 and not think twice about it.

I hate to say it but the night that the Packers won Super Bowl XLV, my mind immediately went to worrying that Rodgers would only win one Super Bowl in Green Bay just like Brett Favre did.  You can argue about where Favre and Rodgers rank all-time but there is no doubt that they are two of the ten best quarterback in NFL history so it is downright shocking that they might only have one Super Bowl each when it is all said and done.  Hell, Rodgers hasn't even gotten back to a Super Bowl since winning Super Bowl XLV.  Honestly, with how things look on The 53 right now, I am not sure that the Packers will have a chance to put the proper pieces around Rodgers to get back there but you still have to try to do everything in your power to at least get back to the Super Bow.

That is why Murphy needs to push in his chips right now to right the wrong he made this off-season to tame the three-headed monster.  Step one is to fire McCarthy and start looking for his replacement immediately.  Step two is to come to an understanding that Ball reports to Gutekunst and if Ball doesn't like that then show him the door too.  Step three is for Murphy and Gutekunst to identify the right young, offensive mind that will help the Packers get the most out of Rodgers and company.  If I had to rank the candidates right now there are three offensive minds that I would focus on: University of Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley, Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, and New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.  Sure you can nitpick each candidate but there is no doubt that each helps bring the Packers offensive out of the 20th century and into the 21st century.

The NFL is just like all other pro sports in that it is a results oriented, win-now business and it is high time that the Packers treat it like that instead of running away from making any changes by letting everyone rest on their laurels.  The Milwaukee Bucks have a once in a generation talent in The Greek Freak.  Instead of sticking with perpetually disappointing head coach Jason Kidd, they moved on to Mike Budenholzer and look like one of the best teams in the NBA despite no major changes to The 15.  Sure there is a chance that replacing McCarthy blows up in Murphy's face and the franchise goes into a tailspin but it is clear that the Packers aren't winning a Super Bowl with their current set-up and that should be their sole focus given that they have a once in a generation talent on The 53 in Rodgers.

The 53 - Packers are 5-3 & Looking (Pretty) Good

It has been an interesting three game stretch for the 2014 Green Bay Packers since my last The 53 post.  The Packers won on the road over the Miami Dolphins thanks to a 4th quarter comeback engineered by quarterback Aaron Rodgers and followed that up with a blowout win over the Carolina Panthers.  Everything was looking good for the Packers as they went on the road to play the New Orleans Saints on Sunday Night Football before their bye week given the fact that the Saints were just 2-4 heading into the game while the Packers were 5-2.  The turning point of the game was when Rodgers pulled up gimpy with a hamstring injury.  Before that, the Packers and Saints traded offensive blows but with Rodgers hobbled, the Packers ended up losing by 21 points.  Unfortunately that sent the Packers into their bye on a sour note.

The bright side is that their bye week gives Rodgers time to let his hamstring heal.  Given that the 2014 NFL Trade Deadline came and went without any consequence, I thoughts I would drop the rankings of The 53 and just highlight a few players of note on The 53.  Without further adu, here are my thoughts on certain players on The 53 with half of the 2014 regular season in the books for the Packers:

Eddie Lacy (RB): Rodgers missed almost half the season last year in Lacy's impressive rookie season so it seemed like a healthy Rodgers and Lacy would give the Packers their best quarterback/running back combo since Brett Favre and Ahman Green. Oddly so far this season Lacy has been less effective in his second year in the NFL despite the fact that Rodgers has been healthy for the entire first half of the season.  Through eight games Lacy has just 428 rushing yards (17th in NFL) on 105 carries (tied for 29th in the NFL) for a 4.1 yard average.  Lacy only found the end zone on four carries (tied for 12th in the NFL), which is somewhat surprising given how much he can move the pile in short yardage situations.  Juxtapose that with last season when through eight games Lacy had 669 rushing yards on 158 carries for 4.2 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns.  There is no question that Lacy has earned every single one of those 428 yards this season thanks to his punishing running style and the fact that his longest run of the season is just 29 yards.  Although Lacy has not put up huge rushing stats this season, on the surface it looks like he has improved catching the ball out the backfield with 209 yards receiving on 21 catches (4th most on team) for a 10 yard average but take that total with a grain of salt because one of Lacy's receptions went for 69 yards and he has yet to catch a touchdown pass from Rodgers. Lacy's biggest improvement has been in pass blocking, which has limited the number of snaps given to backup running backs James Starks and DuJuan Harris as well as fullback John Kuhn since Lacy is no longer subbed out on third downs.  Starks has just 193 rushing yards on 44 carries for a 4.4 yard average.  I know the Packers want Lacy to be a three-down back but I would like to see Starks get some more touches.  Relax fantasy owners, I have Lacy on my fantasy team too but I like the Packers a million times more than my fantasy team, which is why I would like the Packers to keep Lacy fresh by giving Starks some more touches.  Plus, I actually think that is a good thing for Lacy and Starks given Lacy's punishing running style and how injury prone Starks has been in college and the NFL.  Starks is signed through 2015 and Lacy's rookie contracts runs through 2016.  Sharing carries might be the only way Lacy and Starks see another contract with the Packers.  If I were in charge, I would aim to get Lacy and Starks between 25 and 30 touches combined per game with Lacy getting 70% of the touches and Starks getting 30% of the touches.  For whatever reason the Packers have gotten away from using the screen for the last couples seasons.  Whether it is Lacy or Starks, I would make sure to add that back into the game plan for at least a couple plays each game.

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S): I support all things Cheesehead sports related, which makes me a Wisconsin Badger fan but Lacy and Ha Ha are trying to retroactively turn me into an Alabama fan.  Sure that would make me look like a front runner since they've won three of the last five national championships but I can't underscore how important it is that the Packers got Lacy and Ha Ha in the last two draft.  Lacy and Ha Ha not only are two of the younger and more physical players on The 53 but they help fill specific positional needs of The 53 at just the right time.  There is no question when everyone is healthy that the Packers view Morgan Burnett as their best safety.  The real question is whether Ha Ha or Micah Hyde will cement their place next to Burnett.  So far Ha Ha has played more snaps (422) than Hyde (354) this season.   Ha Ha currently has the third most total tackles on the team with 43 while Hyde is nipping at his heels with 41 tackles.  The difference is on big plays since Ha Ha has a sack, a tackle for a loss, an interception, and a fumble recovery while Hyde's only impact play is a tackle for a loss.  Ha Ha wears 21, which is Charles Woodson's old number but Ha Ha actually reminds me more of a blend of Atari Bigby and Nick Collins.  I know that seems like a pretty lofty comparison given that Ha Ha is just a rookie but I say that because so far Ha Ha looks like a thumper (Bigby) that can create turnovers (Collins).  As a result, I see the floor for Ha Ha as a very rich man's Bigby and his ceiling as a healthy Collins.

Corey Linsley (C): Offensive lineman JC Tretter was nominally named the starter at center after general manager Ted Thompson let former starting center Evan Dietrich-Smith leave via free agency.  Tretter was injured before he could even play a single regular season down so the starting center job fell to Linsley, a guy Thompson drafted in the 5th round of the 2014 NFL Draft.  Linsley has been a rock in the middle of the offensive line given that that he is the only offensive player to play every snap this season.  Its one thing to show up healthy every week, it is quite another to preform well every week too.  So far Linsley has graded out as one of the best centers in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus so even if Tretter can return healthy after the bye week, the Packers better stick with Linsley.  The center position has been a revolving door for Rodgers since he took over as the starting quarterback from Scott Wells to Jeff Saturday to EDS almost to Tretter and finally Linsley.  As crazy as it sounds, even though Linsley is just a rookie, he looks like the best of the bunch so absent injury it looks like the Packers have their starting center settled for the rest of Rodgers's tenure.

Davante Adams (WR): In two of the last three games Rodgers made a conscious effort to get Adams the ball, including targeting Adams in very important spots.  Remember Adams was the target when Rodgers pulled a Dan Marino-esque fake spike and throw in their last minute go-ahead drive on the road against the Dolphins.  Usually defense lineman and wide receivers struggle in their rookie seasons but Adams looks very comfortable lining up outside.  The Packers continue to use the same hurry up package with three wide receivers, a tight end, and a running back.  At the start of the season Jarrett Boykin was the third wide receiver behind Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb in that formation but Adams started to show more and more in practice to supplant Adams as the third option.  Adams has played 333 offensive snaps so far this season (66.7%) while Boyikn has only played 139 (27.9%).  Through eight games Adams has 263 receiving yards on 24 catches and two touchdowns.  Clearly Adams is becoming another one of Thompson's second round wide receiver gems to go along with Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb.  In fact, besides outside linebacker Clay Matthews, no one is poised for more of a breakout in the second half of the season than Adams.

Davon House (CB): When every cornerback on The 53 is healthy the depth chart is Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, House, Casey Hayward, Jarrett Bush, & Demitri Goodson.  That doesn't even account for the fact that sometimes Micah Hyde lines up as a slot cornerback instead of as a safety.  That gives the Packers six, or seven if you count Hyde, viable NFL cornerbacks.  That makes it seem like the Packers are all set at cornerback but Williams, House, and Bush are set to become unrestricted free agents at the end of the season.  Just a few weeks ago it looked like House was going to break the bank at the end of the season given that he is the youngest of the three but Williams found the fountain of youth this season and Bush continues to be the captain of special teams so if House continues to play well I could see him pricing himself out of Green Bay because he is NOT worth what Shields got (four-years, $39 million) but will most likely command something close to that in a contract worth at least $6 million a year on the open market.  Quick side note on Bush, he played the most special teams snaps (169 or 77.5%) of anyone on The 53 this season. The only other non-kicker/punter that played more than 50% of the special teams snaps is safety Sean Richardson (153 plays or 70.2%).  If Richardson can stay healthy, it will be interesting to see if he leads to the end of Bush's tenure in Green Bay given that Richardson is five and a half years younger than Bush.  Back to House, if wants to be paid like a number one or number two cornerback then the Packers should place the franchise tag on him and see if they can get a second or third round pick for his services in a trade.  If House is willing to be paid like a number three cornerback (e.g. three or four million per year) then the Packers should lock House up long-term despite having the young trio of Hayward, Hyde, and Goodson behind him.

Sam Barrington (MLB): For all the talk of the two middle linebacker spots not being very important in the 3-4, the Packers are proof that you still need at least slightly above average play.  When healthy, which is essentially all the time since Hawk has only missed two games in his nine year NFL career, his spot on the field in the base 3-4 defense is secure mostly because he lines up the defense. I've been one of Hawk's harshest critics for his on-field performance but every time a Packer defender is asked about Hawk they say how important he is to the defense.  I've come to accept that Hawk will never produce highlight reel plays that you expect out a player drafted 5th overall but his steady hand is a plus for the defense even though he routinely gets beat by running backs out of the backfield on wheel routes and fails to get home whenever he blitzes.  With Hawk lining up the defense and thus occupying one of the two MLB spots in the 3-4, now the Packers need is a disruptive force that can make big plays at the other MLB spot.  So far this seems like a review of Hawk but that is all meant as a set-up to Barrington because he is the third guy that the Packers have tried next to Hawk this season.  So far Brad Jones played 111 snaps, Jamari Lattimore played 281 snaps, and Barrington played 94 snaps.  It looks like Jones is 4th on the depth chart at middle linebacker but it is hard to tell whether Barrington or Lattimore is #2 on the depth chart given that Barrington started the last two games next to Hawk but Lattimore served as the dime linebacker last week.  If Barrington struggles, unless the Packers make a radical position change, the only other option they have on The 53 is rookie Carl Bradford.  Before you get too excited about Bradford, keep in mind that he is moving from OLB to MLB so I would be shocked if he actually plays MLB this season.  Unless Barrington or Bradford show that they can be that disruptive force, the Packers need to rebuild the MLB position this off-season because if Jones plays another defensive snap for the Packers that will be too soon and Lattimore's star has faded lately.

The Packers have a couple important games coming up following their bye: home against the Chicago Bears and the Philadelphia Eagles followed by a road game outside (you read that correctly) against the Minnesota Vikings that I will miss because of the birth of my first child.  Those are all a prelude to a potential Super Bowl XLIX preview when the Packers host the New England Patriots.

The 53 - Packers are 3-2 & Looking Good

It has been a interesting start to the season for the Green Bay Packers.  The Packers were absolutely slaughtered 36-16 on the road to open the season against the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football.  Gaber, Sug, Uncle Patty, and I had tickets to the Packers/Jets game, which we thought would be a slam dunk win for the Packers in their home opener.  Unfortunately just a few minutes into the second quarter the Packers trailed 21-3.  Thankfully the Packers stormed back to win 31-24.  I thought their comeback against the Jets would catapult the Packers into a nice winning streak.  Unfortunately the Packers looked listless on offense in their first divisional game of the season when they lost 19-7 on the road to the Detroit Lions.  Thankfully the Packers redeemed themselves within the division winning consecutive games on the road 38-17 against the Chicago Bears and 42-10 at home against the Minnesota Vikings last night on Thursday Night Football.

The only upshot of Thursday night games are that the teams essentially get a mini-bye and that is truly the only upshot of Thursday night games given that they've all been blowouts so far this season since most of the games involve less than full strength rosters because players are still recovering from the game they played the previous Sunday.  The Packers/Vikings game is a great example. The Packers luckily got to face Ponder instead of rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater because Bridgewater sprained his ankle against the Atlanta Falcons in a Sunday late afternoon game so he had less than four days to recover.  If the game was played on Sunday instead of Thursday, my guess is that Bridgewater's ankle would have been healthy enough for him to play.

Thanks to two consecutive divisional wins, the Packers are currently on an upswing but let's not get too excited given some of their uneven performances so far this season.  Here are my updated thoughts on The 53 with five regular season games in the books:

The 53 2.0 for 2014

1. Aaron Rodgers (QB, LR 1) 2. Jordy Nelson (WR, LR 6) 3. Clay Matthews (OLB, LR 2) 4. Josh Sitton (G, LR 5) 5. Sam Shields (CB, LR 4) 6. T.J. Lang (G, LR 8) 7. Micah Hyde (S, LR 9) 8. Mike Daniels (DE, LR 7) 9. Julius Peppers (DE/OLB, LR 10)  10. Randall Cobb (WR, LR 11)  11. David Bakhtiari (T, LR 12)  12. Eddie Lacy (RB, LR 3) 13. Morgan Burnett (S, LR 15) 14. Bryan Bulaga (T, LR 17) 15. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S, LR 14) 16. Tramon Williams (CB, LR 18) 17. Davante Adams (WR, LR 20) 18. A.J. Hawk (MLB, LR 25) 19. Datone Jones (DE, LR 19) 20. Corey Linsley (C, LR 26) 21. Jamari Lattimore (MLB, LR 37) 22. Josh Boyd (DT, LR 21) 23. Mike Neal (DE/OLB, LR 16) 24. Casey Hayward (CB, LR 13) 25. Tim Masthay (P, LR 23) 26. Davon House (CB, LR 30) 27. Mason Crosby (K, LR 35) 28. Letroy Guion (DT, LR 42) 29. Andrew Quarless (TE, LR 33) 30. Brett Goode (LS, LR 41) 31. Nick Perry (OLB, LR 27) 32. James Starks (RB, LR 28) 33. John Kuhn (FB, LR 29) 34. Sean Richardson (S, LR 45) 35. Richard Rodgers (TE, LR 22) 36. Jarett Boykin (WR, LR 24) 37. Jarrett Bush (CB, LR 32) 38. Matt Flynn (QB, LR 34) 39. Jeff Janis (WR, LR 38) 40. Brandon Bostick (TE, LR 31) 41. Scott Tolzien (QB, LR 39) 42. DuJuan Harris (RB, LR 40) 43. Brad Jones (MLB, LR 43) 44. Sam Barrington (OLB, LR 48) 45. Mike Pennel (DT, LR 47) 46. Luther Robinson (DL, LR N/A) 47. Ryan Taylor (TE, LR 44) 48. Jayrone Elliott (OLB, LR 49) 49. Carl Bradford (MLB, LR 36) 50. Derek Sherrod (T, LR 50) 51. Lane Taylor (G, LR 51) 52. Garth Gerhart (C, LR 52) 53. Demetri Goodson (CB, LR 53)

Injured Reserve - Designated for Return: J.C. Tretter

Injured Reserve

1. Don Barclay (T/G/C, LR 1) 2. B.J. Raji (DT, LR 2) 3. Jared Abbrederis (WR, LR 3) 4. Andy Mulumba (OLB, LR N/A)  5. Nate Plamer (LB, LR 4) 6. Khyri Thornton (DT, LR 5) 7. Aaron Adams (T, LR 6)

2) Jordy Nelson (WR, LR 6): Through fives games Nelson has 34 catches on 52 targets for 525 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns.  Wide receiver Randall Cobb is the only other player on The 53 with more than 100 yards receiving so far this season (24 catches on 34 targets for 273 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns).  Sure Nelson has been targeted on a ton more passes than any other pass catcher on The 53 but his rise in the rankings is based on what he is doing despite facing so many double-teams this season.  I ranked Nelson as having the 5th worst contract on The 53 before the season.  That was due more to the structure of Nelson's contract and all the depth that I thought the Packers had on The 53 at wide receiver.  Although Nelson's production so far this season makes me look somewhat foolish, I am not quire ready to do a 180 on that contract even though Nelson looks like he will post his most productive season yet.

9) Julius Peppers (DE/OLB, LR 10): There is no question that Pepper is the player that I wrote the most about in the off-season given how rare it is for Packers general manager Ted Thompson to sign free agents, let along free agents in their mid-30's.  So far, Peppers has lived up to the hype.  Peppers' mere presence on the field has loomed large because that has caused teams to have to focus on a pass rusher other than Clay Matthews, which freed up other defenders to make plays despite the fact that Peppers hasn't put up huge numbers: 15 tackles, 2 tackles for a loss, 1.5 sacks, 1 interception that was returned for a touchdown, 1 forced fumble, and 1 fumble recovered.  Peppers showed athleticism on most of his pick-six against the Vikings.  I say most of the pick-six because Peppers had an underwhelming Lambeau Leap.  That might not be Peppers' last Lambeau Leap because the lack of big plays from the tight end position combined with the fact that Peppers is 6'6" makes me think we will see him at tight end in the red zone this season.

21) Jamari Lattimore (MLB, LR 37): Despite playing sparingly in the season opener, Lattimore played extensively in the next four games and is currently tied for 3rd on the defense with 28 tackles.  I wonder how excited we should get about that stat though because it seems like middle linebackers in 3-4 defenses essentially fall into 80 or 90 tackles a season.  Based on how Lattimore played the last few games, he looks like a better option at middle linebacker than Brad Jones but that isn't saying much.  Lattimore is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season but that does NOT mean that the Packers should break the bank for Lattimore given that the Packers have foolishly handed out extensions to middle linebackers in the past.  That's right, I'm looking at you A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones.

27) Mason Crosby (K, LR 35): So far Crosby is 5 of 6 on field goal attempts and a perfect 15 of 15 on extra points.  Thankfully Crosby got a miss out of the way in garbage time on the road against the Chicago Bears when it was clear that the Packers were going to win.  Avid readers of this blog know I think it is waste of cap space to spend anything over the league minimum on a place kicker.  The one thing that cuts against that thinking is how well Crosby performed this year from over 50 yards.  Sure it is a small sample size given that Crosby is only 2 for 2 from over 50 yards but it is nice to see him making lengthy kicks given that he was always supposed to have a big leg but he has been very erratic from long distance so far in his NFL career.  It will be interesting to see if Crosby can continue to kick well from distance as the season wears on because that would actually provide more than replacement value at the kicker position because not only does it put points on the board but it prevents the opposition from taking over near midfield on misses.

29) Andrew Quarless (TE, LR 33): Man do the Packers miss tight end Jermichael Finley.  So far this season Quarless has just 10 catches on 13 targets for 96 receiving yards and a touchdown.  Sadly that is the most in each major category of any tight end on The 53.  In fact the only other tight end with on The 53 with even a catch is rookie Richard Rodgers with two catches on four targets for 54 yards and no touchdowns.  The Packers traditionally get much more production out of the tight end position but they also usually have much more talent at the position too.  Sure some of their lack of production at the tight end position is due to the fact that Brandon Bostick has been less than 100% for the entire season but even if Bostick gets healthy soon the trio of Bostick, Quarless, and Rodgers combined brings less to the table this season for the Packers than a healthy Finely gave them last season. In fact, I could see a healthy Finley signed to a reasonable, long-term contract as high as #2 on my rankings of The 53.  Sadly that does not seem likely so the Packers need to get more from their current trio of tight ends.

41) Scott Tolzien (QB, LR 39): I don't get why Thompson keeps Tolzien on The 53 if he is going to be inactive each week.  I know those 46 gameday spots are precious but I would plan for nightmare scenarios with the active roster, which is why I think it is better to have three quarterbacks active on the remote chance the starer and backup gets hurt instead of keeping nine linebackers active.

Following their mini-bye, the Packers head out on the road next week to play the Miami Dolphins. If Thompson makes any moves between now and next Saturday, check back in this space for my detailed thoughts.  If not, do your best to enjoy your second non-Packer NFL weekend in the first five weeks of the 2014 NFL season.

The 53 - Initial Player Rankings for 2014 GBP

Welcome to the 5th and final part of my "season preview".  I put season preview in quotes because I wanted to rank The 53

Review of The 53

Initial Review of the Roster Initial Review of the Practice Squad Five Most Overpaid Five Most Underpaid Initial Rankings of the Roster

before the Green Bay Packers played the Seattle Seahawks on the road to open their 2014 season so that I was on the record with my initial  thoughts about The 53 but work got in the way. As a result, I am going to factor in how the Packers played in their loss to the Seahawks to the rankings but that barely changed my initial thoughts.

Just as a refresher, these rankings take into account age, skill, contract, and positional depth.  Going forward, I plan to post updated rankings of The 53 as often as possible.  For each iteration of this post I will not only rank the players 1 through 53 but I will write about the players whose rankings change drastically from the previous iteration of the rankings.  Without further adu, here are my thoughts on a few players from The 53:

The Initial 53

1. Aaron Rodgers (QB) 2. Clay Matthews (OLB) 3. Eddie Lacy (RB) 4. Sam Shields (CB) 5. Josh Sitton (G) 6. Jordy Nelson (WR) 7. Mike Daniels (DE) 8. T.J. Lang (G) 9. Micah Hyde (S) 10. Julius Peppers (DE/OLB)  11. Randall Cobb (WR)  12. David Bakhtiari (T)  13. Casey Hayward (CB) 14. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S)  15. Morgan Burnett (S) 16. Mike Neal (DE/OLB) 17. Bryan Bulaga (T) 18. Tramon Williams (CB) 19. Datone Jones (DE) 20. Davante Adams (WR) 21. Josh Boyd (DT) 22. Richard Rodgers (TE) 23. Tim Masthay (P) 24. Jarett Boykin (WR) 25. A.J. Hawk (MLB) 26. Corey Linsley (C) 27. Nick Perry (OLB) 28. James Starks (RB) 29. John Kuhn (FB) 30. Davon House (CB) 31. Brandon Bostick (TE) 32. Jarrett Bush (CB) 33. Andrew Quarless (TE) 34. Matt Flynn (QB) 35. Mason Crosby (K) 36. Carl Bradford (MLB) 37. Jamari Lattimore (MLB) 38. Jeff Janis (WR) 39. Scott Tolzien (QB) 40. DuJuan Harris (RB) 41. Brett Goode (LS) 42. Letroy Guion (DT) 43. Brad Jones (MLB) 44. Ryan Taylor (TE) 45. Sean Richardson (S) 46. Andy Mulumba (OLB)  47. Mike Pennel (DT) 48. Sam Barrington (OLB) 49. Jayrone Elliott (OLB) 50. Derek Sherrod (T) 51. Lane Taylor (G) 52. Garth Gerhart (C) 53. Demetri Goodson (CB)

Injured Reserve - Designated for Return: J.C. Tretter

Injured Reserve

1. Don Barclay (T/G/C) 2. B.J. Raji (DT) 3. Jared Abbrederis (WR) 4. Nate Plamer (LB) 5. Khyri Thornton (DT) 6. Aaron Adams (T)

3. Eddie Lacy (RB): I am not sure how many concussions Lacy suffered before he joined the NFL.  We know that he suffered (at least) one last year against the Cincinnati Bengals and suffered another this season against the Seahawks.  Let me be captain obvious when I say that concussions are no laughing matter.  What worries me specifically about Lacy is that his punishing running style is what made me love him so much going into the 2013 NFL Draft but at some point you have to wonder whether the concussions will lead to Lacy changing his running style to run with less authority.

7. Mike Daniels (DE): Even before the Packers lost defensive tackle B.J. Raji for the season with a torn bicep, Daniels was the leader of the defensive line.  That is quire a rise for a guy that was drafted in the 4th round of the 2012 NFL Draft.  Although Daniels can play both the run and the pass as a defensive end in the 3-4 despite his short stature, with how little the Packers line-up in the 3-4, I actually see Daniels having the biggest impact as an inside pass rusher in passing situations this season.

11. Randall Cobb (WR): This is a good illustration of how the rankings work.  There is no question that Cobb is one of the best players on The 53 but he is only signed through this season, which decreases his trade value.  Plus, Cobb plays wide receiver, which is a deep position on The 53.  Given Cobb's injury issues, I don't blame the Packers if they have him play out the season before signing him to a contract extension.  If the Packers do that, they need to realize if Cobb stays healthy for all of 2014 that he will sign a Jordy Nelson-eque contact (four-years, $39 million with $11.5 million guaranteed).

17. Bryan Bulaga (T): Missed all last season after he tore his ACL in the preseason.  Unfortunately Bulaga left the season opener early with another knee injury.  Don Barclay started at right tackle in place of the injured Bulaga last season but tore his ACL this preseason so the Packers were forced to turn to Derek Sherrod against the Seahawks.  As expected, Sherrod was quite underwhelming in place of Bulaga so it is going to be a daily Bulaga healthy watch leading up to the home opener this Sunday against the New York Jets.

36. Carl Bradford (MLB): Now that Bradford made The 53 by the skin of his teeth, his value shoots up mostly because he was a 4th round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, thus he has one of the most favorable contract on The 53.  Following the 2013 NFL Draft I said the Packers should give Micah Hyde a look at safety but his measurables projected him more as a safety than a cornerback.  For some reason the Packers waited a year and now they have a starter at safety in Hyde, just a year later than they should have.  The same applies to Bradford, his measurables project him more as a middle linebacker than an outside linebacker.  The Packers tried Bradford at outside linebackers all preseason where he struggled.  Thankfully the Packers gave Bradford a look at MLB instead of cutting him. Keeping in mind that Bradford is getting an earlier look at middle linebacker due to injury and ineffectiveness of middle linebacker Brad Jones.  Hopefully Bradford can show something at middle linebacker because the Packers desperately need an upgrade at that spot.

38. Jeff Janis (WR): At 6'3" and 219 lbs, the Packers look like they found their next Jordy Nelson.  No this is not based on race, it is based on body type because both Janis and Nelson are sneaky big.  What I mean by that are they are both 6'3" but are never mentioned as physically imposing wide receivers in the NFC North with the likes of Alshon Jeffrey, Calvin Johnson, or Brandon Marshall.  Sure all of those other NFC North receivers are bigger guys but the Packers usually target smaller wide receivers so I am glad they took a chance on Janis because his combine and preseason performance, I think the Packers found a gem in Janis.

53. Demetri Goodson (CB): If you applied my thought process just discussed for Bradford to Goodson, you would think that Goodson would not be the last spot on The 53 given that Goodson was a 6th round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.  The difference between Goodson and Bradford is that Goodson is more of an acclaimed basketball player than football player.  Plus, Goodson is dealing with the effects of a concussion he suffered in the preseason too so I have low expectations for the Packers getting any real production out of Goodson in 2014.

I am going to the Brewers/Reds game on Saturday night and the Packers/Jets game on Sunday afternoon with Gaber, Sug, and Uncle Patty so make sure to check back next week for my thoughts on the games.

The 53 - Five Best Contracts for 2014 GBP

In case you missed it, yesterday I looked at the five worst contracts on The 53. 

Review of The 53

Initial Review of the Roster Initial Review of the Practice Squad Five Most Overpaid Five Most Underpaid Initial Rankings of the Roster

In previous seasons I've had a hard time cobbling together five "bad" contracts, unfortunately there are a number of them on The 53 right now.  I hope that Thompson cleans up some of those this off-season by either cutting them or getting them to restructure their contracts to play for less money.

In this same post last year I highlighted four guys in their contract year that were finishing a non-rookie contract extension that I thought were absolute steals: Evan Dietrich-Smith (C, $1.3 million), Robert Francois (MLB, $750,000), James Jones (WR, $3.75 million), and Sam Shields (CB, $2 million).  At the end of discussing those four players, I said "if I had to make a predictions today, I think it is much more likely that Dietrich-Smith and Jones will resign with the Packers than Francois or Shields."  Well it turns out that Shields is the only guy left on The 53 and I am super salty that EDS is no longer with the team.  Sure the Packers got good value for having three of the four guys on The 53 last season but the underlying contracts were not that great since EDS is playing for the Tampa Bay Bucaneers and Jones is play for the Oakland Raiders.  Thus it looks like the expiring contracts on the cheap might not be as good as I thought so I did not include them this year.

Let's get to the five best contracts on The 53 for the Packers this season.  Keep in mind that this list doesn't even factor in rookie contracts since they are exempt given that they are so advantageous for all NFL teams.  Much like last year there are almost a dozen contracts that I could characterize as honorable mention but I am going to focus on the five best contracts on The 53:

5. Julius Peppers (DE/OLB, $3.5 million, 14th highest cap charge on The 53): I already gave the Peppers free agent deal two looks this off-season.  First, when I thought Thompson signed Peppers to a three-year, $30 million contract with $7.5 guaranteed.  I followed that up when it turns out that Thompson actually signed Peppers to a three-year, $26 million contract with $7.5 million guaranteed.  I don't want to get too excited about this contract given that Peppers is 34 years old and the contract is structured in such a way that he only has a cap charge of $3.5 million this season (tied for 23rd highest with San Diego Charger Jarret Johnson at outside linebacker in the NFL) that balloons to $12.5 million next season (would be highest at outside linebacker in the NFL if it was this season) and drops to $10.5 million in 2016.  Given how rarely Thompson breaks the bank in fre agency, I had to give Thompson positive encouragement.

4. Tim Masthay (P, $1.2 million, 24th highest cap charge on The 53): It may seem crazy to give a punter contract such praise, especially after all the bad things I said about paying place kickers yesterday but Thompson made up for losing punter Jon Ryan when he signed Masthay to a four-year, $5.5 million contract extension with $1.2 million guaranteed.  The business of professional sports continues to become more and more sophisticated so it makes it much harder for Thompson and other smart NFL general managers to sign these types of cost-effective contract extensions.  Masthay is currently in the second year of that extension and is just the 17th highest paid punter in the NFL with every punter in the Top 10 (in terms of cap hit for 2014) making more than $2 million so $1.2 million this season for Masthay almost seems cheap given the market for punters.

3. Clay Matthews (OLB, $10.9 million, 2nd highest cap charge on The 53): The upside is that it looks like Matthews finally has a legitimate pass rusher lining up opposite of him in Peppers.  The downside is that odds are low that Matthews will be healthy for the entire season given that Matthews missed just two games in his first three seasons in the NFL but missed nine games over the last two seasons.  Plus, the cap hit for Matthews jumped from $6.7 million in 2013 to $10.9 this season.  There are even bigger cap holds for Matthews over the next few seasons so the Packers need to do everything possible to keep Matthews healthy going forward.  Otherwise I could see Matthews dropping off the "best" contract list over the next few years.

2. Sam Shields (CB, $5.6 million, 6th highest cap charge on The 53): When Thompson signed cornerback Tramon Williams to a four-year, $33 million contract extension with $10.9 guaranteed, I thought it was a steal.  Sadly the last year of big extensions like that are expensive unless teams can renegotiate those deals.  Case and point, the Packers are paying Williams $9.5 million this season, which is the 3rd highest cap charge on The 53.  Going into last season I said that Williams had the worst contract on The 53.  Williams picked things up last year and is on an expiring contract, which is why he is not on either list this season.  You might be asking why I had such a lengthy discussion of Williams under what was supposed to be a discussion of Shields.  Well I hope the Williams contract is not a sign of things to come for Shields given that Thompson signed Shields to a four-year, $39 million contract extension with $12.5 guaranteed.  This is just the first year of the extension so the Packers and Shields are still in the honeymoon stage but that honeymoon will be over soon when Shields is owed $12.1 million in each of the last two years of his contract in 2016 and 2017.  One final point of comparison, Nelson and Shields are two of the five best players on The 53.  Nelson and Shields both signed very similar contract extension in the last year, which might make some ask how Nelson could have the 5th worst contract on The 53 while Shields has the second best contract on The 53.  Basically I just think wide receivers are more fungible than cornerbacks, which is even more evident when Aaron Rodgers is your quarterback.
 
1. Aaron Rodgers (QB, $17.5 million, highest cap charge on The 53): Last year when I discussed why Rodgers had the best contract on The 53 I gave a very detailed breakdown of the two contract extensions that Rodgers signed with the Packers.  The Packers saw how much they struggled without Rodgers under center given that they went 2-4-1 with Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien, and Seneca Wallace at quarterback in 2013.  So yes, even though the cap hit for Rodgers went from $11.6 million in 2013 to $17.5 million this season, he is still the best contract on The 53 by a mile.  Oh and if you want to know how cost-effective Rodgers is for the Packers, keep in mind that he has only the 6th highest cap hit at quarterback in the NFL this season.  You might think guys like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have a higher cap hit that Rodgers but that is not the case.  Here are the quarterbacks that have a higher cap hit than Rodgers this year: Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, and Sam Bradford.  That's right, Mr. IR himself Sam Brandford has a higher cap hit then Rodgers this year.

As the contracts discussed above show, the Packers are in pretty good financial shape this season save for a few slight overpays by Thompson, which is why the Packers won Super Bowl XLV and have been a perennial playoff team for the last half dozen years besides 2008.

Again a special thanks to Sportrac for their detailed NFL salary numbers, which made this post possible.  Check back tomorrow when I finally finish my five-part season preview for the 2014 Packers with my initial rankings of The 53.

The 53 - Five Worst Contracts for 2014 GBP

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson finalized the first incarnation of The 53 on Saturday.  I say first incarnation because much like last year, just a few days after finalizing The 53, Thompson shook up The 53.  Last year Thompson made a change at backup quarterback, this year injuries forced Thompson to make changes at center. 

Review of The 53

Initial Review of the Roster Initial Review of the Practice Squad Five Most Overpaid Five Most Underpaid Initial Rankings of the Roster

Thompson normally is very deliberate in how he Builds The 53 but injuries have forced Thompson to change his approach over the last few years. In what feels like a flurry of off-season signings, Thompson signed not one but two free agents that played for other NFC North teams last season.  Thompson favors the draft and develop method over splashing cash in free agency but with such meager returns from the draft the last few years (2011, 2012, and 2013), Thompson was basically forced to upgrade The 53 via free agency so let's not give him too much credit.

Thompson rolled over roughly $10 million in cap space from last season, which is very important given that he has just under $9 million in cap space right now.  Although it looks like the Packers have a fair amount of salary cap room, they will need to use it wisely because they have a number of quality starters* and backups** that are set to become free agents this off-season.

Two years ago I dealt with the five worst and five best contract together.  Since these posts get long, I decided to split them up last year into the five worst and the five best contracts on The 53.  I am going to follow that same approach again this year.  Today let's look at the five worst contracts on The 53:

5. Jordy Nelson (WR, $5.9 million, 5th highest cap charge on The 53): Going into this season the top three wide receivers on The 53: Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Jarrett Boykin were set to become free agents.  There is no question that Nelson is the most accomplished of the three but he is also the oldest.  Thompson signed Nelson to a four-year, $39 million extension with $11.5 million guarnateed on the eve of training camp, which is much richer than the four-year, $14 million contract with $5 million guaranteed that was set to expire at the end of the 2014 season. Nelson's cap number actually goes down next season to $4.6 but then jumps up for the following three years: $8.8 million in 2016, $11.5 million in 2017, and $12.5 million in 2018.  Sure the cap is set to go up in 2015 or 2016 but that does not justify back-loading this deal as much as Thompson did.  Given Cobb's injury issues, if he signs an extension with the Packers I would expect that it will be slightly less expensive than Nelson's recent extension but probably only a few million less.  Boykin is the tougher call given that Thompson drafted three wide receivers in the 2014 NFL Draft that are borderline locks for The 53 in 2015.  Unless Boykin takes a below market deal for a player of his caliber (e.g. only averages $2 million a year with very little guaranteed), I see him play playing elsewhere in 2015.  Nelson has just the 16th highest wide receiver salary in the NFL this season, which makes his contract look reasonable this season so I hope you realize that this is more of a commentary on the structure of the deal as well as the depth that the Packers have at wide receiver as opposed to a shot at Nelson.

4. Derek Sherrod (OT, $2.1 million salary, 16th highest cap charge on The 53): When the Packers lost backup offensive lineman Don Barclay for the season it meant that Sherrod became the backup at left and right tackle.  When right tackle Bryan Bulaga went down with a knee injury in the regular season opener on the road against the Seattle Seahawks, the Packers were forced to play Sherrod and he struggled mightily.  I know that Seattle is arguably the toughest stadium to play in and the Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl champs but Thompson certainly expected more out of Sherrod when he drafted him with the 32nd pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.  Unfortunately it looks like Sherrod is the second coming of Marshall Newhouse instead of Chad Clifton, which makes the long-term diagnosis on Bulaga's knee injury very important.  Thankfully Thompson can let Sherrod leave via free agency after this season while the rest of the guys on this list are signed past this season.

3. Morgan Burnett (S, $4.8 million salary, 9th highest cap charge on The 53):  Oh how the mighty have fallen.  I was a total Burnett supporter going into 2013.  In fact I liked Burnett so much that I actually had his four-year, $24.75 million contract extension with $8.25 million guaranteed that he signed before the 2014 season ranked as the 4th best contract on The 53 last season.  This might be a bit of an over reaction to one bad season since Burnett and the rest of the safeties on The 53 last year struggled but now the Packers have two much more cost-effective options at safety in Micah Hyde (moved from cornerback to safety this off-season) and rookie Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (my reasonable draft crush from the 2014 NFL Draft).  Given that Burnett is just 25 years old, I don't see Thompson cutting Burnett after this season unless Ha Ha and Hyde are absolute studs while Burnett completely struggles again this year but I wonder whether it will trigger a A.J. Hawk-esque pay cut down the road for Burnett if he wants to stay in Green Bay through the end of his contract that currently expires after the 2017 season.

2. Mason Crosby (K, $3.4 million salary, 15th highest cap charge on The 53):  Before the 2011 season Thompson signed Crosby to a five-years, $14.75 million contract with $3 million guaranteed.  Last season Crosby agreed to forgo guaranteed money with the option to earn the money back via performance bonuses because of how close he was to getting cut.  Crosby put together arguably his best season in Green Bay but let's not forget that there have been a number of studies that show there is no year-over-year correlation between kicker performance.  Thus a Top 5 kicker aka 2013 Crosby is just as likely to be a bottom five kicker aka 2012 Crosby.  Right now Crosby is the 4th highest paid kicker in the NFL and sadly has regression written all over him for this season.  If I were Thompson, next off-season I would draft a kicker late or sign an undrafted rookie free agent to create a kicking competition in training camp.  If Crosby is out-kicked by the other kicker, the Packers would only have $600,000 in dead money if they cut him but would be able to save over $2 million in salary at the kicker position given that Crosby is owed $3.5 million in 2015 because a rookie kicker would make around $500,000.  As you can tell, I hope 2014 is Crosby's last season kicking for the Packers.

1. Brad Jones (MLB, $3.9 million salary, 10th highest cap charge on The 53): I had Jones pegged for the worst contract on The 53 even before he was the single worst defender on the field against the Seattle Seahawks in the regular season opener.  Last year I thought Jones only had the 4th worst contract on The 53 but Jones is now clearly in a race to the bottom with each passing day the three-year, $11.75 million contract that Thompson gave Jones continues to look worse and worse.  Just to add insult to the salary cap, the Packers are paying middle linebacker Jamari Lattimore $1.4 million in 2014 to backup Jones.  This off-season Lattimore is an unrestricted free agent.  I don't see Lattimore breaking the bank this off-season but will mostly likely command enough that Thompson will have to choose whether Jones deserves a spot on The 53 or should make way for a Lattimore extension.  I clearly favor Lattimore or even rookie Carl Bradford in 2015 over Jones. If Thompson doubles down on stupid by keeping Jones around for 2015, it will most likely be at the expense of Lattimore.

A special thanks to Sportrac for their detailed NFL salary numbers, which made this post possible.  With the bad contracts out of the way, make sure to check tomorrow for my look at the five best contracts on The 53.


Footnotes:
* = Bryan Bulaga (OT), Randall Cobb (WR), John Kuhn (FB), B.J. Raji (DT), and Tramon Williams (CB).

** = Don Barclay (OT), Jarrett Boykin (WR), Jarett Bush (CB), Matt Flynn (QB), Letroy Guion (DT), DuJuan Harris (RB), Davon House (CB), Jamari Lattimore (MLB), Sean Richardson (S), Derek Sherrod (OT), Ryan Taylor (TE), and Scott Tolzien (QB).