Mike McCarthy's Swan Song

Well nothing like the Green Bay Packers effectively getting eliminated from the playoff picture before Thanksgiving to get me to post something for the first time in over a year and a half.  It only seems fitting that the Packers see that happen at CenturyLink Field against the Seattle Seahawks because that stadium has been a house of horrors for the Packers given that they haven't won there since 2008 and have gone 0-4, including the infamous Fail Mary game on Monday Night Football in 2012 that effectively put an end to the use of replacement NFL referees followed a few years later by the 2015 NFC Championship Game where the Packers snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory in one of the most painful losses in franchise history.

Honestly the crossroad that the Packers organization are at right now can be drawn directly back to that 2015 NFC Championship Game because that is the day that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, whether he will ever admit or not, lost faith in head coach Mike McCarthy because of how conservative McCarthy got with his in-game decisions when the Packers had a great chance to go to the Super Bowl.  Since then Rodgers has gotten into a number of sideline disagreements with McCarthy and taken a number of not so thinly veiled shots at McCarthy in press conferences. Don't get me wrong, Rodgers hasn't been perfect over the last few years but just look how the Packers have fared without Rodgers over that same time frame.  If McCarthy is in fact an offensive genius, he wouldn't have gone 3-6 with Brett Hundley under center in 2017.  Juxtapose that with the Philadelphia Eagles that won the Super Bowl last season without their franchise quarterback.  I understand that is not a completely fair comparison but seeing how last season played out for the Packers and Eagles shows you how dependent the Packers are on Rodgers.

With that as a backdrop, last off-season the Packers rightly moved on from general manager Ted Thompson.  The modern NFL had passed Thompson by given that he continued to rely solely on the draft as his means for building The 53.  It would be one thing if Thompson continued to nail more draft picks than not like he did earlier in his tenure but the last couple drafts have been littered with more misses than hits so the fact that Thompson continually refused to dip into free agency to add talent to The 53 meant that it was time to go in a new direction.

Packers President Mark Murphy had three very viable internal options to replace Thompson in Brian Gutekunst, Russ Ball, and Elliot Wolf.  Ultimately Murphy went with Gutekunst and "elevated" Ball to keep him in the organization despite passing him over for the job of general manager, which lead to Wolf leaving the Packers for the Cleveland Browns where he joined a number of former Packer front office folks to try to turn around the fortunes of one of the most tortured NFL franchises.  It is way too early to say that Murphy made the wrong choice in picking Gutekunst over Ball and Wolf.  That said, the day Gutekunst was named general manager, it was also announced that Gutekunst, Ball, and McCarthy would all report directly to Murphy.  If the 2015 NFC Championship Game was the beginning of the end for McCarthy and Rodgers, Murphy's decision to come up with a three-headed monster that report to him might be the beginning of the end for Murphy as well.  In almost everyone's eyes besides Murphy and Thompson, McCarthy should have been replaced years ago.  Instead of giving Gutekunst power over that decision, Murphy held onto that power and put McCarthy on the same level of the organizational chart as Gutekunst and Ball for some unknown reason.

With all of that as background, the clear next step is that McCarthy has to go and I mean before this Thanksgiving.   Yes, I know McCarthy has been with the Packers for a long time and won a Super Bowl but McCarthy's offense is Blockbuster-esque in how innovative it is and the Packers clearly need a Netflix-esque innovation on offense because the clock is ticking on Rodgers's tenure in Green Bay despite fact that he is under contract through 2023.  Don't get me wrong, Rodgers hasn't played up to his lofty standards in 2018 but one has nothing to do with the other.  While this might seem like a complicated decision on its face, the Packers committed to Rodgers with the richest contract in NFL history so I understand that the general rule is that management doesn't want players to run the team but there are exceptions to the rule and Rodgers has earned that right in more ways than one to be that exception.  When it comes down to it, if I had to choose Rodgers or McCarthy, I would choose Rodgers 100 times out of a 100 and not think twice about it.

I hate to say it but the night that the Packers won Super Bowl XLV, my mind immediately went to worrying that Rodgers would only win one Super Bowl in Green Bay just like Brett Favre did.  You can argue about where Favre and Rodgers rank all-time but there is no doubt that they are two of the ten best quarterback in NFL history so it is downright shocking that they might only have one Super Bowl each when it is all said and done.  Hell, Rodgers hasn't even gotten back to a Super Bowl since winning Super Bowl XLV.  Honestly, with how things look on The 53 right now, I am not sure that the Packers will have a chance to put the proper pieces around Rodgers to get back there but you still have to try to do everything in your power to at least get back to the Super Bow.

That is why Murphy needs to push in his chips right now to right the wrong he made this off-season to tame the three-headed monster.  Step one is to fire McCarthy and start looking for his replacement immediately.  Step two is to come to an understanding that Ball reports to Gutekunst and if Ball doesn't like that then show him the door too.  Step three is for Murphy and Gutekunst to identify the right young, offensive mind that will help the Packers get the most out of Rodgers and company.  If I had to rank the candidates right now there are three offensive minds that I would focus on: University of Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley, Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, and New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.  Sure you can nitpick each candidate but there is no doubt that each helps bring the Packers offensive out of the 20th century and into the 21st century.

The NFL is just like all other pro sports in that it is a results oriented, win-now business and it is high time that the Packers treat it like that instead of running away from making any changes by letting everyone rest on their laurels.  The Milwaukee Bucks have a once in a generation talent in The Greek Freak.  Instead of sticking with perpetually disappointing head coach Jason Kidd, they moved on to Mike Budenholzer and look like one of the best teams in the NBA despite no major changes to The 15.  Sure there is a chance that replacing McCarthy blows up in Murphy's face and the franchise goes into a tailspin but it is clear that the Packers aren't winning a Super Bowl with their current set-up and that should be their sole focus given that they have a once in a generation talent on The 53 in Rodgers.

The 15 - So Far, So Good

At the start of the season I was more bullish on the 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks than most given that almost everyone outside of the organization viewed the Bucks as a lock for the lottery and most thought they would be one of the five worst teams in the NBA while I viewed them as a playoff team with an outside chance at the 5th or 6th seed.  With the Bucks currently 10-8 in the underwhelming Eastern Conference you would think I would be even more confident about my preseason pick but I am not quite ready to say I told you so given that most of their wins are over lackluster teams.  Of the 10 wins so far this season, their only impressive wins were at home over the Memphis Grizzlies and on the road over the Miami Heat.  There is no doubt that long-term the Bucks will only go as far as The Greek Freak and Jabari Parker take them but the more interesting thing is that some of the guys that I had low expectations for going into this season performed much better so far than I expected.  Here are my updated rankings to The 15:

5) Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 6): I've always been a fan of Ilysova's game, which is why I've affectionately referred to him as The Poor Man's Dirk but even in my wildest dreams I would not have predicted that Ilyasova would lead the team in PER at 18.6.  What makes that number even more impressive for Ilyasova is that he is an offense first stretch power forward that doesn't pass or rebound all that well so he can't even pad his PER with cheap rebounds or assists.  The reason that Ilyasova has such a high PER is that he is actually shooting over .500 (currently .503) from the field and .333 on three-pointers so far this season.  I am under no grand illusions that Ilyasova will turn into an All-Star but we are starting to see him thrive on the offensive end as his defensive liabilities are sufficiently covered up by all the other long/athletic guys on The 15.  Given how well Ilyasova played so far this season, it might make sense to sell high on him sooner rather than later.

The 15 2.0 for 2014-15

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 1) 2. Jabari Parker (SF/PF, LR 2) 3. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 3) 4. John Henson (PF/C, LR 4) 5. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 6) 6. Larry Sanders (C, LR 5) 7. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 11) 8. Jared Dudley (SG/SF, LR 9) 9. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 7) 10. Kendall Marshall (PG, LR 12) 11. Nate Wolters (PG, LR 8) 12. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG, LR 10) 13. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 13) 14. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF, LR 14) 15. Damien Inglis (SF, LR 15)

7) O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 11): The conventional wisdom is that when professional athletes are in the last year of their contract they have an incentive to preform to earn a contract extension but once they sign that extension their incentives can go out the window so they don't perform as well in the first season of their new deal.  Last off-season Mayo signed a three-year, $24 million contract and did just that.  The season got off to a brutal start for Mayo when he showed up out of shape and barely even played himself into shape by the end of the season.  I am not sure whether Mayo is preparing for his contract year next year but this season he not only showed up in shape but it looks like he worked on his game on both ends of the floor.  Suffice to say, Mayo's improvement is the biggest surprise on The 15 so far this season given that I would have traded Mayo for a bag of balls before the start of the season. Instead Mayo started a couple games recently and is currently 4th of the team in scoring, averaging 10.8 points per game.  Much like Ilyasova, I am torn on whether the Bucks should try to trade Mayo now to sell high on him.  Given all the back court depth on The 15, I would actually be more inclined to move Mayo than Ilyasova.

15) Damien Inglis (SF, LR 15): The Bucks are currently under the salary cap so they are NOT able to use the Disable Player Exception on Inglis even though he might not play for the Bucks this season.  I mention this because I've long taken issue with the fact that NBA does NOT employ a disabled list like they do in baseball.  Inglis is a great candidate since he is out with a broken foot until at least early 2015.  Although only 12 players can dress for each game, the Bucks were recently without Zaza Pachulia's services too, which meant the Bucks only had 12 healthy guys.  If anyone else got hurt that would leave the Bucks short.  I've long thought that NBA teams should be able to temporarily go above The 15 when they suffer a number of injuries, the question is when will the NBA actually do something about it?

Monday, December 15, 2014 is an important day on the NBA calendar because that is the first day that a player signed on or before Monday, September 15, 2014 can be traded.  It should actually officially be called NBA General Manger Buyer's Remorse Day.  We might even be able to get it sponsored by Christal or some other luxury good that NBA players blow money on once they sign a lucrative contract extension.  I will do my best to cobble together a couple realistic trades for Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond for NBA General Manager Buyer's Remorse Day.  I presume that advice will be ignored but if Hammond does make any moves on or before then, make sure to check back in this space for full coverage.

The 15 - What else is there besides Jabari & The Greek Freak?

The 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks start the seasons on the road tonight against the artists formerly known as the Charlotte Bobcats.  Although it is just a season opener on the road, today could go down as one of the most important moments in franchise history given that for the first time in almost a decade there is real hope that the Bucks will actually be relevant at a national level.  With all due respect to long time former Bucks owner Herb Kohl, most of that optimism stems from the fact that the Bucks have new majority owners in Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry along with ton of local minority owners that seem to want to build a long-term NBA title contender, even if that involves some non-playoff growing pains, instead of just being an occasional fringe playoff contender.

We are less than a year into the new ownership group's tenure but the team already looks in great shape given that Bucks general manager John Hammond added two potential franchise players via the last two drafts.  Hammond drafted The Greek Freak with the 15th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft and Jabari Parker with the 2nd pick in the 2014 NBA Draft.  Sure the new ownership group stubbed their toe when they acquired Jason Kidd as their new head coach without involving general manager John Hammond in the process but if that is the biggest misstep of the new ownership group, the Bucks are in good hands.

There are nine guys on The 15 for the Bucks to start the 2014-15 season that were on The 15 at the end of the 2013-14 season: Giannis Antetokounmpo, John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova, Brandon Knight, O.J. Mayo, Khris Middleton, Zaza Pachulia, Larry Sanders, and Nate Wolters.  That means there are six guys from the final 2013-14 team that are no longer with the organization: Jeff Adrien, Carlos Delfino, Miroslav Raduljica, Ramon Sessions, Ekpe Udoh, and Chris Wright.  Hammond replaced those six guys with six other guys via trade (Jared Dudley), free agency (Jerryd Bayless), a waiver claim (Kendall Marshall) and the 2014 NBA Draft (Damien Inglis, Johnny O'Bryant III, and Jabari Parker).  I gave a detailed breakdown of my thoughts all the moves above in late August and I've seen nothing since to change my thoughts other than that I am liking the Dudley trade more and more everyday.

Sure The Greek Freak and Jabari will ultimately determine whether the Bucks actually turn into a perennial playoff contender but there are some other very talented guys on The 15 too so here is my look at a couple of other players on The 15:

3) Brandon Knight (PG): There is a school of thought that unless you have a potential Top 5 point guard (Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, John Wall, or Russell Westbrook) that you do NOT overpay point guards because the difference between the sixth and twenty sixth point guard is not that big.  I have no grand illusions that Knight will turn into the best point guard in the NBA but given his diverse sill set, I do think he is a player worth paying fairly big long-term money.  The question is how much money will Knight command.  Based on last season, it looks like Knight could be a franchise point guard with a decent chance to be a Top 10 point guard.  Worst-case scenario, Knight is a combo guard that is a 3rd or 4th option on a really good playoff team.  Knight can become a restricted free agent this off-season.  In terms of potential comps for Knight's extension, a couple of good comps on the low end are Jeff Teague's four-year, $32 million contract and Mike Conley's five-year, $40 million contract.  A couple of good comparisons on the high end are Jrue Holliday's four-year, $41 million contract and Ty Lawson's four-year, $48 million contract.  Since I am not related the Knight, I would much rather see the Bucks get Knight signed to a deal like Teague's or Conley's but if Knight performs well this season I could see him pushing for a much more expensive extension and possibly even a max deal.  Yeah, you read that correctly that Knight might be a max player, especially given the upcoming spike in NBA revenue thanks to their new national television contract, which will result in a huge jump in the salary cap.  Knight bet on himself by not agreeing to long-term extension before the season with the Bucks.  My guess is that the Bucks and Knight ultimately work out a long-term deal in the off-season, the question is whether Knight has a below average season to hurt his market value or a great season to push his value into the max stratosphere.

The 15

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF) 2. Jabari Parker (SF/PF) 3. Brandon Knight (PG) 4. John Henson (PF/C) 5. Larry Sanders (C) 6. Ersan Ilyasova (PF) 7. Khris Middleton (SF) 8. Nate Wolters (PG) 9. Jared Dudley (SG/SF) 10. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG) 11. O.J. Mayo (SG) 12. Kendall Marshall (PG) 13. Zaza Pachulia (C) 14. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF) 15. Damien Inglis (SF)

5) Larry Sanders (C): Speaking of expensive contract extensions, this is the first year of Sanders' four-year, $44 million extension.  Sanders is tied with JaVale McGee as the 16th highest paid center this season. Right now, based on how Sanders fought off the court and played on the court last season, he is no where close to being the 16th best center in the NBA yet the Bucks received a number of calls to see if Sanders was available last off-season.  I don't know what teams were offering but my guess is that teams were trying to buy low on Sanders given how far his stock fell.  Given Sanders's impressive defensive skills and his improving offensive abilities, if he can keep his head on straight he might turn into a steal at $11 million a season.  That or Sanders could continue to get into trouble off the court, which will hamper his growth on the court.  If that happens, Hammond will not only regret that he signed Sanders to an expensive extension but he will be even more disappointed that he double-down when he didn't move sanders when he had the chance.  Hey now Larry, the ball is in your court.

12) Kendall Marshall (PG): I thought it was a no brainer to claim Marshall off waivers from the Los Angeles Lakers given that he would cost the Bucks a mere $915,243 for his services this season.  That seems like a pittance by NBA standards for a backup point guard.  The Bucks decided to guarantee Marshall's contract at the start of the season despite the fact they could have held off till January 10, 2015 to guarantee his contract for this season.  Sure the odds are low that the Bucks would have cut Marshall this season but why not keep the flexibility until early 2015 in case there are a ton of injuries that would necessitate making a move since the Bucks already had 14 guaranteed contracts on The 15 before they guaranteed Marshall's contract.  I guess now The 15 should be called The (Financially) Guaranteed 15.  Given that everyone on The 15 is expendable besides The Greek Freak and Jabari Parker this move seemed borderline ridiculous.  That was until I realized that Marshall’s agent is Alex Saratsis.  I've never heard of Saratsis until today and the only reason that I learned about Saratsis is that he is The Greek Freak's agent so that move was clearly a courtesy by the Bucks to get in the good graces with Saratsis given that the Bucks are going to have potentially franchise altering negotiations with him over the next few years.

I am not a huge fan of season predictions but feel an obligation to make a quick one given that this is a season preview of The 15.  Despite the fact that almost everyone thinks the Bucks are going to be one of the worst teams in the league, I actually think they will fight for the 5th or 6th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  If Hammond makes any moves, make sure to check out my thoughts in this space, otherwise check back in a month when I have my updated rankings for The 15.

Building The 15 - A Quick Look at The 15 for John Hammond or Possibly Jason Kidd Following the 2014 NBA Draft

I planned a short post with advice for how Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond should approach free agency following my review of the 2014 NBA Draft.  With that post in the can Saturday afternoon and ready to run first thing Monday as a little diversion for the start of the work week, news broke late Saturday night that the Bucks and Brooklyn Nets were engaged in serious discussions regarding compensation for the Nets to let current head coach Jason Kidd out of the last three years of the four-year, $10.5 million contract that he signed with the Nets before last season.  Apparently this stemmed from the fact that Kidd approached Nets ownership about an expanded front-office role that included say in roster moves but was rebuffed, which lead Kidd to look for a new employer.

Kidd experienced tons of turmoil as coach of the Nets, which was his first season moving from playing to coaching.  Sure the Nets had an over-priced and older but star drive roster last season but that was a big part of the reason the Nets hired Kidd because he was supposed to handle his "peers" given that he actually played in the NBA for the New York Knicks for the 2012-13 season.  Early in the season the Nets struggled but instead of shouldering the blame, Kidd tried to place blame elsewhere starting with lead assistant coach Lawrence Frank.  Despite being Kidd's hand-picked lead assistant, a little over a month into the season, Kidd made Frank the fall guy when he removed Frank from the bench to instead focus on scouting despite being reportedly the highest paid assistant coach (six-years, $6 million) in the NBA last season.

Prior to this Kidd debacle, the new Bucks co-owners Marc Lasry and Wesley Edens have handled everything perfectly since they bought the Bucks from Herb Kohl at the end of last season their first official act was to send Mallory Edens as the team representative to the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery, which made for one of the most awkward Twitter situations of 2014 as grown men digitally drooled over Edens.  Although Edens did not deliver the first pick despite the fact that the Bucks had the worst record in the NBA, she will go down as the most memorable thing from the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery.

Even though the Bucks posted their worst record in franchise history, the new ownership group along with the second pick in the 2014 NBA Draft gave fans hope that things could turnaround fast next year.  Instead of making flashy moves, the new ownership group went on a grassroots tour where they interacted with fans in-person and online.  The new ownership group openly discussed a new arena but stressed the need to improve The 15.  Instead of replacing coaches or members of the front-office, the new ownership group said they were going to give each group a season to keep their respective jobs.  Trust me, I did not like when Hammond hired Larry Drew as head coach last off-season but do believe Drew and Hammond should have at least one more season.  It looks like Hammond will get another season but I would he shocked if Drew is employed by the Bucks at the end of the week.

Apparently second round pick(s) are being discussed as compensation for Kidd.  Let's not confuse Kidd with the second coming of Phil Jackson.  I am not sure what Kidd has done so far since shifting from playing to coaching to prove that he is a even a quality head coach let alone a guy worthy of being a coach with say over personnel decisions too.  Let's see him handle just coaching before giving him front-office responsibilities too.  Thankfully the current reports are that the Bucks envision Kidd solely as a coach.

Before the 2014 NBA Draft I advised Hammond how to approach restricted (power forward Ekpe Udoh) and unrestricted (power forward Jeff Adrien and combo guard Ramon Sessions) free agents.  Following the draft, my advice remains essentially the same, especially if Hammond and/or Kidd can somehow how get teams to take on some of the bloated contracts on The 15.  Following the 2014 NBA Draft, here is my current depth chart for The 15:

Point Guard (1): Brandon Knight

Shooting Guard (3): Nate Wolters, O.J. Mayo, and Carlos Delfino

Small Forward (4): Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Damien Inglis, and Chris Wright

Power Forward (4): John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova, Khris Middleton, and Johnny O'Bryant III

Center (3): Larry Sanders, Zaza Pachulia, and Miroslav Raduljica

As you can see above, the Bucks already have 15 guys projected to be under contract for next season once they sign their three draft picks so that leaves the Bucks without any real open roster spots.  Thankfully the Bucks have some guys currently on The 15 like Wright and Radulijca with either a low cap number or only a partially guaranteed contract so that gives the Bucks some wiggle room.  Still Hammond's roster construction flies in the face of my theory of leaving the last three spots on The 15 for low-priced, non-guaranteed contracts that that you can churn on a weekly basis, if necessary.  Given that The 15 is currently front-court heavy, I would be shocked if the Bucks did NOT add at least one ball handler given that they are light at that position despite having a number of point forwards on The 15.

In order to have real wiggle room to actually sign free agents though, the Bucks would need to offload some of their expensive contracts without giving up draft picks or taking on more long-term money.  There are four candidates to move: Mayo, Ilyasova, Sanders, and Pachulia.  Last season teams tried to buy low on Ilyasova and Sanders but I would hold onto those guys because I see them being the third or fourth best player on a playoff contender when healthy and with their head screwed on straight.  That means I would trade Mayo's or Pachulia's bloated contracts, pun in the case of Mayo, in a heartbeat.  Unfortunately I see both of those as a long-shot without taking on equally horrible contracts.

I am not sure what the Bucks would do with the salary cap space anyhow whether the Bucks have Kidd in the fold or not because marque free agents are NOT interested in signing with the Bucks since thy do not yet have a Top 10 NBA player and the team plays in Milwaukee.  Thus the Bucks need to lure free agents by drafting superstars that entice free agents.  Thankfully there is hope on that front with The Greek Freak and Parker on The 15.  Right now that is hope more than production but if The Greek Freak and Parker backup their limitless potential with production, the Bucks might actually have a shot to sign marquee free agents.

I am not a fan of giving the Nets anything more than a bag of balls for Kidd's service as a coach and/or member of the front office.  Plus it will be super awkward to keep Drew as head coach if the Bucks "miss-out" on Kidd.  There is no way that the Bucks are landing one of the marquee free agents this off-season like LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony so my advice is to pass on Kidd and let the high-end market settle out before making a single free agent contract offer.  At that point, the Bucks should bottom feed to improve the bottom third of The 15 with rotational players on the cheap.  If any of those guys turn out to be worth having long-term, great.  If not, at least the Bucks are building a cost-effective, flexible roster.  Unfortunately I am not in charge so I see Kidd becoming a member of the Bucks by the end of the week.  Either way, it will be interesting to see how the next few days play out.

The 15 - In Giannis We Trust

Welcome to the 4th and final installment of The 15 for the 2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks.  The 2013-14 season for the Milwaukee Bucks mercifully came to an end following their franchise record 67th loss of the season 111-103 to the Atlanta Hawks at home.  This season has been such a bust that I actually enjoyed my post about how Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond should approach the 2014 NBA Trade Deadline as well as a look at the trade that Hammond actually made much more than my traditional The 15 posts.  If you are a glutton for punishment and missed my first three, make sure to check them out: Walking Wounded..., Forever Young...May You Stay...Forever Young, and All-Star Break Thoughts.

Besides the end of the 2013-14 season, today marks a huge changing of the guard as Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry purchased the Bucks from long-time owner Herb Kohl.  Given that the Bucks have been stuck in neutral for almost a decade, a change in ownership was way overdue.  I am sure Kohl is a nice man but his decree that the Bucks "stay relevant", meaning teeter on the playoff/lottery bubble, is short-sided.  All sports fans but especially NBA fans want a winner, not one with a 0.00001% chance of winning an NBA title.

There are bound to be some bumps in the road over the next year as the new owners exert their influence over the franchise.  Thus if I was general manager John Hammond or head coach Larry Drew, I would make sure that I am checking around the league in case the ownership group decides to blow things up.  We will have months to speculate on how the new ownership group should proceed.  For now, I am going to do my best to put the painful 2013-14 season for the Bucks in the books.

Since I am sure most of you tuned the Bucks out a long time ago, let me quickly catch you up.  The youth movement is in full effect.  Going into the off-season last year it was clear that the Bucks were going through some type of re-build, which is why I thought it made much more sense to hire a lesser known first time head coach instead of a re-tread head coach like Larry Drew.  Thankfully by the end of the season Drew finally realized he had to play the young guys, given that the Bucks were going to lose anyways, too bad he didn't realize that months earlier so that some of the young guys could have more game in-game repetitions under their belt going into next season.

Well with all of that uplifting background out of the way, here are my final rankings of The 15 for the abysmal and injured 2013-14 Bucks:

The 15

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 1) 2. John Henson (PF/C, LR 2) 3. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 3) 4. Larry Sanders (C, LR 5) 5. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 4) 6. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 6) 7. Nate Wolters (PG, LR 7) 8. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR  10) 9. Miroslav Raduljica (C, LR 11) 10. Chris Wright (SF, N/A) 11. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 13) 12. Carlos Delfino (SG/SF, LR 15) 13. Ramon Sessions (PG, LR N/A) 14. Jeff Adrien (SF, N/A) 15. Ekpe Udoh (PF, LR 14)

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 1): Right now The Greek Freak is the only true franchise player on The 15 with a legitimate shot to make an All-NBA Team, which makes him a no-brainer for the top spot on The 15.  Sure The Greek Freak only posted a 10.8 PER in his rookie season but there were a million endearing moments in The Greek Freek's rookie year on the court (a block followed by a crafty assist & a block followed by a great dunk) and off the court (impressive soccer goal & anecdote about running to a game after sending money to his family). There is no question that the Bucks bought low on The Greek Freak when they drafted him with the 14th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft.  The question is whether the Bucks can surround The Greek Freak with another franchise player from the 2014 NBA Draft to give the Bucks a duo worth paying to watch for the first time in almost a decade.

5. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 4): The Poor Man's Dirk turned into the Homeless Man's Dirk this season.  Thankfully Ilyasova has a little fire in his belly, which was evidenced by the fact that Ilyasova punched Sacramento Kings forward Reggie Evans in the stomach.  Unfortunately an ankle injury cut Ilyasova's most forgettable season besides his rookie year with the team short.  The Bucks still owe Ilyasova $7.9 million each of the next two seasons while 2016-17 is essentially a team option since only $400,000 of his $8.4 million salary is guaranteed for that season.  I am a total Ilyasova apologist evne after last season. Sure Ilyasova struggles defensively but with the quality defenders that the Bucks are amassing, in Ilyasova the Bucks have a quality offensive option that is slightly overpaid next season that worst case turns into a great expiring contract the following season.

8. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR  10): I was not a fan of the Mayo signing last off-season, which was even before Mayo reported overweight and ambled through the season.  At times Mayo can score at will, which makes him enticing and frustrating all at once given that he only shows his upside in short spurts as opposed to sustained periods of time.  The Bucks need to decide if Mayo is redeemable, otherwise they are going to hide him all next season until he becomes an enticing expiring contract following the 2015-16 season.  The Mayo contract is just the kind of middle-class NBA contract that the Bucks need to avoid.  I know that the Bucks cannot attract marque free agents.  Instead of overpaying average players, they would be much better off playing out the string with guys signed to cheaper, non-guaranteed deals.

10. Chris Wright (SF, N/A): The Bucks gave auditions during the second half of the season to three guys (small forward Tony Mitchell, shooting guard D.J. Stephens, and small forward Chris Wright) on 10-day contracts.  At first blush, Mitchell looks like the best of the bunch given that he posted an insane 31 PER but keep in mind he only played 10 minutes for the Bucks.  Selfishly I like Wright the most because of how exciting of a player he was at the University of Dayton, which is my Father In-Law's favorite sports team.  Leaving my family bias aside, when I watched Wright in college, I thought he would be a late first round pick.  Wright ultimately went undrafted in the 2011 NBA Draft but still appeared in 24 games for the Golden State Warriors in the 2011-12 NBA season.  Wright went through training camp for both the 2012-13 and 2013-14 NBA seasons but failed to make The 15 for an NBA team to start either of those seasons.  In each of those seasons Wright excelled in the NBA D-League though.  This season the Bucks finally took notice and added Wright to The 15 on a couple 10-day contracts that helped him earn a a multi-year contract with a minuscule signing bonus.  Depending on how the off-season goes, Wright's spot on The 15 is tenuous given that his contract is essentially non-guaranteed.  I keep getting flashes on his athleticism in college as I write this so I am convinced more than ever that if the Bucks keep Write on The 15 next season they are buying low on a guy that could be the 9th or 10th guy on The 15 next season.

One final note, take the rankings of Sessions, Adrien, and Udoh with a grain of salt because their rankings are hurt by their contract situation.  Sessions and Adriens are set to become unrestricted free agents, which drops their value dramatically while Udoh is set to become a restricted free agent.  Udoh has been underwhelming the last couple seasons so no need to discuss him any further.  Unlike Udoh, on talent alone, Sessions and Adriens look like viable NBA players but my guess is that Sessions will be too expensive for the Bucks while Adriens will lose out to the glut of front-court players the Bucks already have on The 15.

Thankfully the Bucks will be able to add another potential franchise player early in the 2014 NBA Draft, which will drastically improve The 15 for the 2014-15 season, so make sure to check back for my detailed thoughts on how the Bucks should proceed to improve The 15 to make next season.

Building The 15 - First Look at 2014 NBA Draft

The 2014 NBA All-Star Weekend and the 2014 NBA Trade Deadline are both now in the books.  The only participant in the 2014 NBA All-Star Weekend for the Milwaukee Bucks was Giannis Antetokounmpo, who played in the 2014 NBA Rising Stars Challenge and participated in the NBA Skills Competition.  Sadly it looks like the The Greek Freak is the only player currently on The 15 for the Bucks that has a chance to play in the actual NBA All-Star Game down the road.

Bucks general manager John Hammond did not follow my advise for how to approach the 2014 NBA Trade Deadline.  Instead, Hammond traded guards Gary Neal and Luke Ridnour to the Charlotte Bobcats for guard Ramon Sessions and power forward Jeff Adrien.  The Bucks look no better or worse on the court following the trade and Bucks owner Herb Kohl saved a little less than $4 million over the next two seasons in the trade.  Unfortunately Hammond could not flip any of the other expiring contracts on The 15 (small forward Caron Butler or power forward Ekpe Udoh) besides Ridnour for draft picks or buy-low players with high upside.

There are three ways for general managers to build The 15 in the NBA: free agency, trades, or the draft.  Since the Bucks are a small market team we know they will never be able to add a franchise player via free agency and there is a minuscule chance that the Bucks could luck into a franchise player via trade so the best way for the Bucks to land another franchise player is through the draft.

The Bucks currently have the worst record in the NBA so almost all the focus for Bucks fans will turn to the much ballyhooed 2014 NBA Draft.  The good news is that barring a drastic turnaround following the All-Star break, the Bucks will finish with the worst record in the NBA this season.  Over the last 14 seasons, only two of teams with the worst record ended up with the first pick in the NBA Draft because even if you have the worst record you still only have a 25% chance to land the top pick in the draft.  Luckily even if the Bucks don't get the top pick, if they finish with the worst record in the NBA, the latest they can pick is 4thin the 2014 NBA Draft.

The last time the Bucks picked first overall was the 2005 NBA Draft when they had the 6th best odds of getting the top pick.  The consensus going into the 2005 NBA Draft was that it was a two person draft so the Bucks had to choose between center Andrew Bogut and small forward Marvin Williams.  It turns out that the Bucks smartly choose Bogut over Williams but missed out on two stud point guards in Deron Williams and Chris Paul that went with the next two picks.

How does this all map to the 2014 NBA Draft?  The consensus going into the college basketball season was that small forwards Jabari Parker (Duke) and Andrew Wiggins (Kansas) would go in the first two picks of the 2014 NBA Draft, in some order.  As the college season started to play out, center Joel Embiid (Kansas) worked his way into consideration to go first overall as well.  Besides that, power forward Julius Randle (Kentucky) and point guard Marcus Smart (Oklahoma State) look like strong candidates to go fourth and fifth in some order.  Despite having a decent season on the court, Smart hurt his chances to stay in the Top 5 when he got into an altercation with a fan in the stands during a game that resulted in a three game suspension.  The wild card of the 2014 NBA Draft is Australian combo guard Dante Exum.  May be it is my bias towards loving all things Australia but even leaving Smart's spat with a fan aside, I still like Exum's upside much more than Smart's.

Exum is the only player that has officially declared for the draft.  Assuming the rest of the guys just discussed declare for the 2014 NBA Draft, right now I see those six guys going in the first six picks.  Assuming that everyone we expect to declare for the 2014 NBA Draft does in fact declare, right now I see Aaron Gordon (F, Arizona), Dario Saric (SF, Croatia), Noah Vonleh (PF, Indiana), and Tyler Ennis (PG, Syracuse) rounding out the Top 10 in the 2014 NBA Draft.  There will be plenty of time to break down each of these guys in more detail.  Here is how I would currently rank the ten guys (best to worst): Parker, Embiid, Wiggins, Exum, Randle, Gordon, Saric, Smart, Ennis, and Vonleh.  I was tempted to rank Embiid ahead of Parker but Embiid has been going through some injury issues and looks to have a bad temper.  I see Embiid as a more polished offensive version of Larry Sanders but not sure whether his temper will undermine his skills.

Sure the Bucks would rather choose first instead of fourth but I would be happy with the Bucks getting any of the guys I have currently ranked in my Top 4.  That means if the Bucks finish the season with the worst record in the NBA but still only get the 4th pick in the 2014 NBA Draft they would land Exum unless Parker, Embiid or Wiggins fell for some reason.  Sure picking 4th would be a huge disappointment if the Bucks ended up with the worst record in the NBA but as you can see that is not all the talent that is projected to be available at the top of the 2014 NBA Draft.

The 15 - All-Star Break Thoughts

The 2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks headed into the All-Star break with a whimper thanks to a league worst 9-43 record.  Bucks general manager John Hammond overhauled The 15 last off-season.  Although the Bucks have a horrible record, part of that is due to the fact that The 15 has been at full strength just a few times this season but my guess is that even if everyone on The 15 was healthy all season, the Bucks would still only be a borderline playoff team.  That is embarrassing for Hammond given how weak the Eastern Conference is this season.  I plan to write a lengthy post in the next few days for how Hammond should approach the 2014 NBA Trade Deadline. As an appetizer to that lengthy post, let's take a look at The 15 to see what assets Hammond has at his disposal.

The 15

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 2)  2. John Henson (PF/C, LR 1) 3. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 4) 4. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 7) 5. Larry Sanders (C, LR 3) 6. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 5) 7. Nate Wolters (PG, LR 10) 8. Gary Neal (SG, LR 6) 9. Caron Butler (SF, LR 9) 10. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 8) 11. Miroslav Raduljica (C, LR 11) 12. Luke Ridnour (PG, LR 13) 13. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 14) 14. Ekpe Udoh (PF, LR 12) 15. Carlos Delfino (SG/SF, LR 15)

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 2): When the Bucks drafted John Henson with the 14th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, I said that if I bough a Bucks jersey it would definitely be a Henson jersey.  Sadly for Henson that torch was officially passed to The Greek Freak early this season.  Sure The Greek Freak's PER (10.6) is not very impressive right now but he reminds me of a poor man's Kevin Durant.  You think that is hyperbole but despite the Bucks struggles this season, The Greek Freak is participating in the NBA Rising Stars Challenge and the Skill Competition.  I know The Greek Freak has not even finished his rookie season but he finally gives the Bucks their first potential franchise player since Ray Allen, which is perfect since The Greek Freak wears Allen's old number 34.

3. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 4): Currently leads the team in scoring (16.6 PPG) and assists (4.8 APG) but even horrible teams like the Bucks score at least 85 points a game so someone has to get numbers.  I can see Knight's career going one of two ways.  If Knight plays for a team that struggles offensively I see him turning into a combo scoring guard, a Rich Man's Mo Williams if you will.  If Knight ends up playing on a competitive team with better scoring options, I see him becoming more of a traditional point guard that is more selective with his shot.  Either way, the Bucks are much better off long-term with Knight running the show than Brandon Jennings.

5. Larry Sanders (C, LR 3): Earlier this season Sanders missed 25 games due to a hand injury suffered during a bar fight, which is totally on him.  Just as Sanders was getting back to full strength he suffered a broken orbital socket that will keep him out of the lineup for another six weeks.  The broken orbital socket was not Sanders' fault so I will cut him some slack.  This season is lost one for Sanders anyhow so there is no need to rush Sanders back.  Plus, next season marks the first year of the four-year, $44 million contract extension that Sanders signed in the off-season.  If I were in charge, I would chalk this season up as a lost one for Sanders with an eye (no pun intended) towards next season.  In case I wasn't clear, I would not play Sanders again this season, even if he is healthy.

I think it makes sense for Hammond to build The 15 long-term around Knight, Nate Wolters, The Greek Freak, Khris Middleton, Ersan Ilyasova, John Henson, Miroslav Raduljica, and Larry Sanders but only two of those guys are truly untouchable: Henson and The Greek Freak.  After that, the Bucks have a couple interesting expiring contracts (Butler, Ridnour, and Udoh) and long-term deals (Ilyasova, Mayo, and Sanders) that they could move at the trade deadline.  Unfortunately the Bucks would be selling low by moving any of the players currently signed to long-term deals so if I were Hammond I would be focused on leveraging the expiring contracts for long-term assets but make sure to check back for my extended thoughts on exactly how Hammond should approach the 2014 NBA Trade Deadline.

The 15 - Forever Young...May You Stay...Forever Young

Sorry it has been almost a month since my last post about the 2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks but things have been crazy for the Green Bay Packers and Manchester City, which has precluded me from posting more about the underwhelming Bucks.  Later today we will know whether the Packers beat the Chicago Bears on the road, which will determine whether the Packers or Bears win the NFC North and host a home playoff game.  Since I am doing everything in my power to distract myself until kickoff of the Packers/Bears game, I decided to post something about the Bucks as a nice reprieve for Cheesehead sports fans.

The Bucks are 1-5 in overtime games so far this season.  Losing that many games in overtime can be chalked up to two different things: inability to make clutch shots or lack of depth.  Given their injury issues, I would chalk it up to lack of depth.  Following their home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, the Bucks are currently 6-24 ahead of their three game road trip out West (Lakers, Jazz, and Suns), which usually means three loses.

The Bucks have a very good chance to lose the most games in franchise history, which was set in the 1993-94 season when head coach Mike Dunleavy lead the Bucks to a 20-62 record.  The Buck suffered a myriad of injuries to almost everyone on The 15 so far this season so even though they did not want to tank this year per owner Herb Kohl's mandate, the Bucks currently have the worst record in the league and it looks like things will only get worse to close out 2013 and start 2014 on their three game West coast road trip.

Earlier this month Kohl held a press conference to say he wants to broaden ownership as a means to keep the Bucks in Milwaukee long-term.  Kohl was a United States Senator from Wisconsin from January 4, 1989 to January 3, 2013 and has owned the Bucks since 1985.  Some thought once Kohl retired from the Senate that he would have more time to focus on the Bucks and the push to get a new arena built in Milwaukee.  I am not against Kohl and his new investors building a new arena in Milwaukee as long as the tax payers of the state of Wisconsin do not have to pay for the new arena.  Presumably any new owners that Kohl would add would have deep pockets, which would allow them to foot the bill for a new arena.  If Kohl and his new investors expect the tax payers to foot the bill, I am fine with the Bucks becoming the new version of the Seattle SuperSonics.

One quick piece of advice for small market NBA general managers before we get to my updated rankings of The 15.  Small market NBA general managers are inherently at a disadvantage because even if they have cap space, they are unable to attract big-time free agents so they need to change how they approach putting together The 15 by giving themselves more roster flexibility.  Following the 2013 NBA Draft, Bucks general manager John Hammond made some questionable moves that essentially handcuffed any roster flexibility on The 15 given that Hammond filled The 15 with guaranteed contracts.  The problem with that approach is that when The 15 goes through a rash of injuries like the Bucks have to start the 2013-14 NBA season, there is no way to bring in short-term help since everyone on The 15 has a guaranteed contract.  That means Hammond cannot cut anyone without fairly significant financial ramifications but if he left a spot or two open on The 15 he could have added undrafted rookie free agents on a rotating basis where warm bodies are needed to fill out the rotation.

With than unfortunate introduction that pretty much shows you how depressing things have been for the Bucks so far this season out of the way, here are my updated thoughts on The 15:

The 15

1. John Henson (PF/C, LR 1) 2. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 3) 3. Larry Sanders (C, LR 7) 4. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 6) 5. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 8) 6. Gary Neal (SG, LR 4) 7. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 2) 8. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 5) 9. Caron Butler (SF, LR 9) 10. Nate Wolters (PG, LR 10) 11. Miroslav Raduljica (C, LR 14) 12. Ekpe Udoh (PF, LR 13) 13. Luke Ridnour (PG, LR 12) 14. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 11) 15. Carlos Delfino (SG/SF, LR 15)

2) Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 3): Bucks head coach Larry Drew is finally starting The Greek Freak, unfortunately it took a bunch of injuries to force Drew to play the most exciting player on The 15. Why do I love The Greek Freak?  Check out his drive past Kevin Garnett for an easy dunk as one of many examples from his young NBA career.  The Greek Freak was listed at 6'9" before the 2013 NBA Draft and apparently has the growth plates of a 16-year old so he already grew an inch and a half in the last six months.  Given that The Greek Freak is currently the youngest player in the NBA, there is a good chance that he will end-up growing another inch and a half to be a 7-footer with ball handling and shooting skills of a guard to go along with the defense and rebounding skills of a forward.  The Greek Freak is also making other players on the court better.  Case and point, starting point Brandon Knight doubled his scoring, rebounding, and assists since The Greek Freak joined the starting lineup. Am I excited for The Greek Freak's potential upside?  Let's have Marv Albert give my response.

5) Khris Middleton (SF, LR 8): Before the season I said that I had very low expectations for Middleton.  Most of that was due to the fact that Middleton was projected as a borderline lottery pick in the 2012 NBA Draft going into his junior season at Texas A&M.  Unfortunately Middleton struggled due to a knee injury and a coaching change but still decided to come out early.  The Detroit Pistons drafted Middleton 39th overall and buried him on the bench throughout his rookie season.  After joining the Bucks this off-season in the Jennings for Knight et al. trade, the team committed to giving Middleton regular minutes so he already appeared for the Bucks more times this season than he did for the Pistons all last season.  Early results are positive as Middleton is the only player to appear in every game for the Bucks this season and is fourth on the team in PER with 14.4.

11) Miroslav Raduljica (C, LR 14): With centers Zaza Pachulia and Larry Sanders out for extended periods of time so far this season, Drew was essentially forced to play Raduljica and he has responded well so far.  Raduljica is currently second on the team in PER with 19.1.  Take that with a grain of salt thought because Raduljica is only averaging 10 minutes per game in 17 appearances (2 starts).  I look at backup centers like backup catchers in baseball, they are necessary but you should never overpay for them.  Injuries aside, the Bucks clearly overpaid Pachulia when they signed him to a three-year, $15.6 million deal.  The Bucks properly paid Raduljica when they signed him to a three-year, $4.5 million deal. I am not saying that Raduljica is better than Pachulia right now but for a team that has no legitimate playoff aspirations, it make much more sense to pay Raduljica $1.5 million than Pachulia $5.2 million to play backup center.

Given how much the Bucks have struggled this season, the only thing to look forward to is the NBA Trade Deadline on Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 2 pm CST.  The Bucks really only have two untouchable players on The 15: John Henson and The Greek Freak.  Besides those guys, Hammond should make everyone else available even if it hurts the Bucks immensely in the short-term in the hopes of building a long-term winner.  I will do my best to work ESPN's NBA Trade Machine to construct a number of ridiculous trades for Hammond that will never happen but are fun to discuss.

Building The 15 - How We Got Here

The 2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks open the the season on the road tonight against the New York Knicks. There are just four players left on The 15 from the 2012-13 Milwaukee Bucks so I expect there to be some chemistry issues.  Despite the fact that I already looked at some of the moves Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond made earlier this off-season, I thought it made sense to take a total look at all the moves that netted the 2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks 11 new players on The 15.

It is well known by now that Milwaukee Bucks owner Herb Kohl would rather see the Bucks creep into the playoffs as an 8th seed and get swept by the Miami Heat again like they did last year than bottom out.  Almost every move this off-season by Hammond looked like another middling move that caused me to try to get #FearTheMediocreDeer trending as a hash tag on Twitter.

Whether you view the moves that Hammond made as an attempt to pacify Kohl's mandate to stay relevant instead of bottom out or middling moves that will help the Bucks long-term, I find a few of the moves sensible but most of them and others downright ridiculous.  Here are my rankings (worst to best) of every move made between the end of last season and the start of this season to cobble together The 15:

Hire Larry Drew as head coach: For some reason teams would rather give retread coaches another chance instead of rolling the dice on a young, hungry defensive minded coach.  I gave a number of suggestions for where the Bucks should go at head coach, unfortunately Hammond ignored my suggestions.

Signed Zaza Pachulia (C ) to a three-year, $15.6 million contract: The Bucks are paying Pachulia a ton of money despite the fact that they have a bunch of young talent in the front that needs to play in order to see if their potential translates into production.  Given how much the Bucks are paying Pachulia, if he sits on the bench then he is most expensive insurance policy in the NBA or will take away valuable minutes from one of the young front court players that should learn on the job this season.

Waived Gustavo Ayon (C): The Bucks could have had a decent, young backup center on the roster for $1.5 million.  Instead they Bucks waived Ayon before his contract was guaranteed for the season.  I know $1.5 million is a lot of money in the real world but that is a pittance in the NBA for a legitimate backup center.

Renounced the rights to Joel Przybilla (C): Waiving Ayon made even less sense with Przybilla no longer on The 15.  I know Pachulia is a much better player than Ayon or Przybilla but I would rather pay Ayon or Przybilla 20% of what they are paying Pachulia since Ayon or Przybilla are are about 80% as effective as Pachulia.

Traded Viacheslav Kravtsov (C) and Ish Smith (G) to the Phoenix Suns for Caron Butler (SF): Given that Butler is a starting small forward, the Bucks got a ton of talent in return for spare parts in this trade but it came at a cost since Butler is due $8 million this season on his expiring deal.  I hope the Bucks added Butler in hopes of flipping him to a contender at the trade deadline because the goal this season is to hand out playing time to younger players not guys pushing their mid-30's.

The 15

1. Ersan Ilyasova (PF) 2. Larry Sanders (C) 3. John Henson (PF/C) 4. Brandon Knight (PG) 5. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF) 6. Gary Neal (SG) 7. O.J. Mayo (SG) 8. Caron Butler (SF) 9. Nate Wolters (PG) 10. Khris Middleton (SF) 11. Luke Ridnour (PG) 12. Carlos Delfino (SG/SF) 13. Zaza Pachulia (C) 14. Ekpe Udoh (PF) 15. Miroslav Raduljica (C)

Signed O.J. Mayo (G) to a three-year, $24 million contract: For those that are unable to read between the lines, I would much rather see the Bucks sign one-year deals instead of shelling out large, multi-year deals.  In this instance the Bucks took a calculated risk on a player in his mid-20's that could actually improve over the life of his contract.  I think the odds are slim (not a word used to describe May's current weight) that Mayo ever turns into a superstar but I would much rather the Bucks pay Mayo instead of their other shooting guards (Monta Ellis and J.J. Redick) from last season.

Traded Luc Mbah a Moute to the Sacramento Kings for two second round draft picks: I am an unabashed lover of The Prince for the mere fact that he is a defensive stopper that can guard almost anyone in the NBA very well.  Injuries have limited his effectiveness over the last few seasons but when healthy, The Prince is one of the better one-on-one defenders in the NBA.  Despite The Prince's limited offensive game, two-years for $9 million feels about right.  I get trying to cut costs but it is hard to reconcile the decision with how much the Bucks overpaid Mayo and Pachulia.

Renounced the rights to Marques Daniels (SG/SF): The Bucks decided to upgrade this spot by signing slightly more expensive players in place of Daniels but I would have just brought Daniels back on a one-year deal for the league minimum to save money.

Traded J.J. Redick (G) for two second round pick: I guess it is better to get something instead of nothing for Redick since he was going to leave as a free agent but when you factor in that the Bucks got two second round draft picks for Tobias Harris and Beno Udrih, the Redick for Harris and Udrih doesn't look very good.

Renounced the rights to Mike Dunleavy (SF): According to various reports, the Bucks wanted Dunleavy to return but he wanted to play for a winner so I can't blame him for signing with the Chicago Bulls.

Signed Miroslav Raduljica (C) to a veteran minimum contract: For how horribly the Bucks messed up the Pachulia instead of Ayon or Przybilla move, they saved themselves slightly with the Raduljica signing.  My expectations for Raduljica are low in terms of on-court production but like the contract and extra six fouls he brings to The 15.

Renounced the rights to Samuel Dalembert (C): The Bucks traded Jon Brockman, Jon Leuer, Shaun Livingston, and the 12th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft to the Houston Rockets for Samuel Dalembert, the 14th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, a future second round pick, and cash considerations.  Let's not forget that Dalembert said he wouldn't mind playing for the Miami Heat during the playoffs.  Keep in mind Dalembert was a member of the Bucks as they were getting swept by the Heat when he made that comment.  The Bucks fined and suspended Dalembert a number of times throughout the season so this move was a no brainer.  Funny that the Heat thought so little of Dalembert that they rolled the the perpetually injured Greg Oden instead of signing Dalembert.

In a three team deal the Bucks traded the Oklahoma City Thunder the rights to Szymon Szewczyk (C) for Luke Ridnour (G) and a second round draft pick from the Minnesota Timberwolves: The Bucks facilitated a sign-and-trade between the Thunder and Timberwolves so they got a quality backup combo guard and a second round pick for their trouble.  I don't mind bringing Ridnour back into the fold, especially because he is the perfect mentor for the young Bucks back court since he is the older version of rookie Nate Wolters.

Signed Carlos Delfino (SG/SF) to a three-year, $9.75 million: Much like Hammond, I've always been a fan of Delfino's game.  When healthy, I would much rather pay $3 million for Delfino than $8 million for Mayo.  This move would have been even higher on the list but the Bucks are without Delfino's services through at least the first month of the season, if not longer, due to a foot injury

"Drafted" Nate Wolters (G) in the second round of the 2013 NBA Draft: The Bucks actually drafted Ledo and then traded his rights along with a future second round pick for Wolters.  Originally I wished the Bucks just held onto Ricardo Ledo instead of trading for Wolters because it cost them a future second round pick despite the fact that they own roughly 500 second round picks in the next dozen drafts.  I can't kill the trade because as I discussed in the Ridnour trade, Wolters looks like a potential ten year veteran that could be the 7th or 8th guy on a championship team.  As long as Ledo doesn't turn out to be a complete stud, I am fine with the transaction.

Signed Gary Neal (G) to a two-year, $6.5 million contract: The only player on The 15 that played meaningful minutes in the playoffs last season was Neal, which is why I was shocked the Bucks were able to get Neal for such a reasonable price.  Neal's shot selection is questionable but that is also what makes him a potential instant offense guy off the bench.

Traded Brandon Jennings (PG) to the Detroit Pistons for Brandon Knight (PG), Khris Middleton (SF), and Viacheslav Kravtsov (C): Some might like the versatility of Middelton's game but I have very low expectations for him so this trade will boil down to how Jennings and Knight pan out long-term.  Jennings is a shoot first point guard that did not want to be in Milwaukee so even though Knight has been underwhelming so far in the NBA, I look at this trade as getting something for nothing.  If Knight flames out at least the Bucks are not sullied with a high-volume shooter like Jennings.  The Bucks already exercised their option on Knight for next season.  I would much rather pay Knight $12 million than Jennings $24 million through 2015/16.

Named Scott Williams assistant coach: For how much I hated hiring Larry Drew as a retread head coach, I love adding Williams to Drew's staff.  Williams worked in the media at various spots for the Phoenix Suns and Bucks after retiring from the NBA.  Last season Williams was an assistant coach for the Idaho Stampede in the NBDL, which was his first real taste of professional coaching.  When Williams played for the Bucks he had a sweet baseline jumper that would be a great shot for Sanders to add to his offensive game. Sure guys like Jim Cleamons, Bob Bender, and Nick Van Exel are going to get more acclaim than Williams but he was my favorite Buck of all time besides Big Dog so yes, I am excited to see him on the coaching staff.

Signed Larry Sanders (C) to a four-year, $44 million contract extension: The last two off seasons the Bucks committed long-term to Ersan Ilyasova and Sanders.  If the Bucks could somehow morph Ilyasova's offensive game and with Sanders' defensive game into one player, they would have the perfect two-way NBA player.  The ceiling for Sanders is much higher than Ilyasova but the floor is also much lower for Sanders.  For how good Sanders is defensively, unfortunately he still struggles offensively and always seems to get in trouble off the court.  As long as Sanders can keep his off-the-court issues in check and improve offensively, the sky is the limit so I like the calculated risk of the contract extension.

Exercised contract option on John Henson (F): If they choose, the Bucks could have Henson under contract through the 2016/17 season on his rookie contract.  I never thought the Bucks would get Henson with the 14th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft but luckily he fell into their lap.  Henson has not been a stud by any means so far in the NBA but looks like a front-court starter, which is a pretty nice haul with the 14th pick in a nine player draft.

Signed Jeff Teague (G) to a four-year, $32 million offer sheet: The Jennings/Knight trade never happens if the Atlanta Hawks declined to match the Bucks offer.  If you take salaries out the equation I like Teague slightly more than Knight although Teague has a lower ceiling than Knight.  When you factor in contracts, I favor Knight just a little more than Teague.

Renounced the rights to Monta Ellis (G): A high-volume shooter is the last thing the Bucks need.  Add in that Ellis was one of the worst three-point shooters in the entire NBA and I am happy to see the Ellis-era end in Milwaukee.  Sure trading for Ellis cost the Bucks center Andrew Bogut but given Bogut's injury history and their front-court depth, the Bucks are better off long-term without Bogut and Ellis.

Amnestied Drew Gooden (F), which wiped two-years and $13.4 million off the books: Kohl still owes Gooden the money, we luckily just don't have to watch Gooden languish on the bench any longer.  In what turned out to be another Dan Gadzurich-esque overpay with the mid-level exception, hopefully Gooden is the last incarnation of 

Drafted Giannis Antetokunbo (SF) with the 15th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft: Despite only playing in the second division in Greece, I love that the Bucks rolled the dice by taking The Greek Freak with the 15th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft.  Small market teams cannot attract free agents so taking flyers on potential studs like The Greek Freak is a no brainer in my book.  With The Prince in Sacramento, if I had to buy a Bucks jersey there is no question it would be The Green Freak's jersey.

I thought Hammond was trying to follow Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey's model of amassing assets in hopes of making a bigger move down the road but there are two problems with that approach for a small market team like the Bucks.  One, there is always pressure to put a winner on the court to keep fans going to the games.  Two, no big-time free agent will ever sign in Milwaukee.  Unless the Bucks are perfectly healthy throughout the season, I could see them severely regressing this season.  That would not be the worst thing though because the Bucks need to bottom out and get a Top 3 pick this off-season to build a long-term winner.

Much like I do with The 53 for the Packers, I plan to do the same thing with The 15 for the Bucks.  I probably will not update the rankings on a weekly basis unless there is a sudden string of moves over a short period of time.  I want to see the Bucks play in-person before updating my rankings so look for updated rankings in late November or early December once I get to see the totally revamped roster in-person.

Building The 15 - 2013 Milwaukee Bucks Draft Picks

This is my third year doing a "mock" first round NBA Draft (2011, 2012, and 2013) and my fourth year reviewing the Bucks actual draft (2010, 2011, and 2012).

Usually there are a ton of trades in the first round of the NBA Draft, which makes it really hard to marry pick, player, and team correctly.  True to form, there were a ton of trades in the first round of the 2013 NBA Draft.  I nailed the exact draft number and player for only one pick* out of 30 in the first round of the 2013 NBA Draft.

Although that seems like I did a horrible job, I correctly predicted 24 out of 30 players** that went in the first round of the 2013 NBA Draft.  Of the 6 guys*** that I incorrectly predicted would go in the first round, they all were drafted by the 43rd pick so my prognostication skills are pretty good.

Here is a full breakdown of the two players that the Milwaukee Bucks drafted in the 2013 NBA Draft:

1st Round (15th Overall): Giannis ("Bo" or "The Greek Freak") Antetokounmpo
Position: Small Forward
Age: 18
Birth date: December 16, 1994
Birthplace: Athens, Greece
School: N/A
Class: N/A
Height: 6'9"
Weight: 215 lbs
Reach: N/A
Wingspan: N/A
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Versatile point forward, great size/length for his position, and good ball handler & passer for his size
Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Needs to add strength, needs to improve consistency with his jump shot, and plays against weak competition
Other Possible Picks: Dennis Schroeder (PG, Germany), Sergey Karasev (SG, Russia), and Shane Larkin (PG, Miami)
Twitter: N/A
Tweet:

Love #Bucks taking a boom-or-bust pick like Giannis Antetokoumpo. Let the tankapalooza for next season start! #NBADraft
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 28, 2013

The only thing that worries me about the #Bucks first round pick is that I had some flashes of Yi... #NBADraft
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 28, 2013

The backcourt Larry Sanders comparisons are very appropriate. Glad that #Bucks are swinging for the fences instead trying for bunt singles.
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 28, 2013

Analysis: Early in the draft process there were two spellings of his last name: Adetokunbo and Antetokounmpo, it seems like everyone has settled on Antetokounmpo.  On ESPN's draft telecast they said his nickname should be Bo.  I prefer The Greek Freak but Bo is easier to type so let's stick with that for this post.

The youngest player in the draft is drawing comparisons to Kevin Durant. Trust me, if Bo turns out to be 75% of Durant, this will be the best pick of Hammond's tenure and possibly the highest ROI of any pick in the 2013 NBA Draft.  Just to inflate already high expectations, Bo has also been compared to Scottie Pippen and Lamar Odom as well because of his potential ability to be a point-forward.

This was a total luxury pick for the Bucks that I fully support.  Early indications are that Bo wants to play in the NBA next season despite only playing in lower divisions in Greece so far and never even traveling outside the country until a few weeks ago when he wowed scouts in Italy.

I wish the Bucks could stash Bo in Europe or the NBADL for a few years to help them bottom out but if Bo wants to play in the NBA I am fine with that decision as long as it doesn't overwhelm him to the point that it stunts his growth on the court.

There is a better chance that Bo flames out as another European prospect that never fulfills the lofty expectations than Bo is selected for an NBA All-Star game.  Even taking that into account, these are the kind of boom-or-bust picks that small market teams have to make because teams like the Bucks can rarely sign marquee free agents but if you draft a stud (think Durant), he might stay with your franchise for the next decade.

If Bo even turns out to be an NBA starter then the Bucks' new favorite number will be 15 since they drafted two quality players at that spot in four years: Larry Sanded in 2010 and Bo in 2013.


2nd Round (43rd Overall): Nate ("Lukno Udriour") Wolters
Position: Point Guard
Age: 22
Birth date: May 15, 1991
Birthplace: St. Cloud, MN
School: South Dakota State
Class: Senior
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 196 lbs
Reach: 8'2"
Wingspan: 6'4"
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Crafty point guard who can get to the rim, good shooter with range, high basketball IQ, excellent ball handler, and sees the floor well/gets teammates involved
Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Lacks lateral quickness and explosiveness and can struggle creating his own shot against athletic defenders
Other Possible Picks: Marko Todorovic (SF, Serbia), Erick Green (PG, Virginia Tech), and Lorenzo Brown (PG, N.C. State)
Twitter: @NateWolters
Tweet:

Despite the off the court issues, I love Ledo's game. Hope #Bucks keep Ledo instead of trading him for Muscala. #NBADraft
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 28, 2013

If #Bucks kept Ledo they'd have drafted two lottery tickets but trading for Wolters makes the draft a lottery ticket & bond dividend.
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 28, 2013

If #Bucks end up with Wolters, fine with trading Ledo but bummed if #Bucks end up with Muscala. #nbadraft
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 28, 2013

Analysis: The Bucks actually drafted Ricardo Ledo (PG, Providence) with the 43rd pick.  I signed off on the Bucks drafting Ledo in the first round so I thought it was a steal that they got him in the second round.  Instead of keeping Ledo, the Bucks traded for Wolters who was actually drafted 38th overall by the Washington Wizards but was traded to the Philadelphia 76ers before being ending up with the Bucks.  To get Wolters the Bucks gave up Ledo and Houston's second round pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, which they acquired last year as a part of the Jon Brockman, Jon Leuer, and Shaun Livingston for Samuel Dalembert deal.

Since 1996-97 a player has averaged 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists only eight times over an entire season. Amazingly Wolters accomplished that feat twice but that comes with the caveat that Wolters played in the Summit League as opposed to the Big "Ten" or the Big East.

Different advanced metrics that use collegiate statistics to project NBA success had Wolters as being worthy of a Top 10 pick so getting him in the second round seems like a steal.  ESPN's Kevin Pelton uses advance stats to project future production.  Since Bo is not able to be projected in Pelton's model, just based on drafting Wolters, Pelton found that the Bucks had the 5th best draft in terms of adding talent given their draft position (ESPN Insider subscription required).

Clearly Wolters is a safer pick than Ledo, I am just bummed that the Bucks gave up Houston's second round pick in next year's draft because the Bucks need to start hoarding draft picks since that is one of the only ways they can get players to come to Milwaukee.  Either way, it will be interesting to see if Wolters or Ledo has a better NBA career.

Finally in terms of NBA comparisons there are a number of Jimmer Fredette comps being made about Wolters but I have a different comparison.  For those of you that don't understand the Lukno Udriour nickname above, Wolters reminds me of a nice blend of Luke Ridnour and Beno Udrih.  Trust me, that is meant as a compliment because best cases scenario Wolters turns into an NBA starter but worst case scenario he looks like a backup that will have a long NBA career.

The Bucks are in desperate need of a spark for the franchise.  Besides going to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2001, the Bucks have not won a playoff series since 1989.  The last few years the Bucks hung around as a borderline playoff team but only made the playoffs two of the last seven seasons.  Despite my disappointment with giving up a second round pick in the 2014 NBA Draft as a part of the Ledo/Wolters trade, I like that the Bucks swung for the fences in the first round drafting Bo and added a proven commodity in the second round drafting Wolters.

I really thought ten years down the road we would look back at the 2012 NBA Draft for the Bucks as one of the best in franchise history.  Just a year later, the Bucks already traded shooting guard Jodie Meeks, their second round pick in that draft, so it is up to power forward John Henson to fulfill that promise.  I don't want to jinx the 2013 NBA Draft for the Bucks but I feel even better about this draft than I did about last year's draft so may be the Bucks finally got the spark the franchise desperate needs.



Footnote:
* Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG, Georgia) went 8th to the Detroit Pistons.

** = I missed on Mason Plumlee (PF, Duke) went 22nd to the Nets, Solomon Hill (SF, Arizona) went 23rd to the Pacers, Andre Roberson (SF, Colorado) went 26th to the T-Wolves, Livio Jean-Charles (PF, France) went 28th to the Spurs, Archie Goodwin (SG, Kentucky) went 29th to the Thunder, and Nemanja Nedovic (SG, Serbia) went 30th the Suns.

*** = Glen Rice Jr. (SF, Michigan) predicted 18th went 35th, Tony Mitchell (SF, North Texas) predicted 20th went 37th, Jamaal Franklin (SG, San Diego State) predicted 22nd went 41st, Allen Crabbe (SG, California) predicted 23rd went 31st, Ricardo Ledo (SG, Providence) predicted 29th went 43rd, and Alex Abrines (SG, Spain) predicted 30th went 32nd.