Building The 15 - Bucks Next Five Moves

Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond has been very busy reshaping the roster over the last month.  After adding two intriguing players in the 2013 NBA Draft I was hopeful that the Bucks were going to try to bottom out next season en route to building a long-term contender.  Unfortunately Hammond must have gotten an inter-office memo from owner Herb Kohl mandating that he continue to overpay mediocre free agents.  If you caught my write-up yesterday, you already know I am not a fan of the moves Hammond made since the draft.

Fortunately the Bucks still have a few moves left to make this off-season to fill their 15-man roster but this is how their 2013-14 roster currently looks:

PG: Nate Wolters and Ish Smith

SG: O.J. Mayo

SF: Carlos Delfino and Giannis Antetokounmpo

PF: Ersan Ilyasova, John Henson, Ekpe Udoh, and Drew Gooden

C: Larry Sanders, Zaza Pachulia, and Gustavo Ayon

Here is a my five-point plan for how Hammond can salvage the off-season:

#1) Amnesty Drew Gooden.  This should have happened last off-season so there is no excuse for inaction this off-season.  Gooden has a guaranteed contract so he is going to get the money one way or the other so you might as well get it over with this year.  If it doesn't happen this year, Gooden must have compromising photos of Hammond or Kohl.  That or Kohl is going through some cash flow issues so he wants to spread out the $13.5 million he owes Gooden over the next two years.  Getting rid of Gooden would leave the Bucks with four open roster spots, which I am about to help Hammond fill.

#2) Do a sign-and-trade with the Atlanta Hawks.  Almost everyone thinks the Bucks should move point guard Brandon Jennings for point guard Jeff Teague.  I still think Jennings has value so the Bucks should trade shooting guard Monta Ellis for Teague.  I would love to see Ellis as the first guy off the bench for a contender but unfortunately he still sees himself as a potential all-star.  The Bucks are lucky that Ellis turned down what amounted to a three-year, $36 million deal to stay in Milwaukee because I wouldn't even pay Ellis what the Bucks are going to pay shooting guard O.J. Mayo (three-years, $24 million) at this point.  The Hawks have an interest in Ellis and the Bucks have an interest in Teague so this looks like a match made in heaven.

#3) Get restricted free agent Brandon Jennings to sign his $4.6 million qualifying offer.  That leaves the Bucks with good salary cap flexibility.  I am not completely sure that allows the Bucks to trade Jennings at the trade deadline.  If not, it makes the qualifying offer less appetizing, but allows the Bucks to retain his "Bird Rights" next off-season to sign him to a mega-extension or move him in a sign-and-trade deal.

#4) Don't spend a dollar over the veteran minimum on any player. Part of me is intrigued with the potential upside of restricted free agent shooting guards Gerald Henderson and Gary Neal but neither of those guys would be a starter on a legitimate championship contender so no need to waste resources on continuing to overpay for mediocrity.  Instead the Bucks should see if they can get a combo back court player like Beno Udrih, Marquis Daniels, Mo Williams, or Nate Robinson to sign for the veteran minimum.

#5) Fill out the roster with undrafted rookie free agents.  In my 2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks Free Agent Shopping Guide I gave Hammond a bunch of names of players that I would target.  The key is that you would rather pay your 12th through 15th guys nothing since they are going to ride the pine next season anyhow.  Best case scenario you find the next Greg Stiemsma that lights up the NBDL to earn a spot in the rotation at some point down the road.

This may seem redundant but the key for the Bucks is to stop overpaying for mediocre talent so until the Bucks start taking a sensible approach to constructing their team I will continue to try to get #FearTheMediocreDeer trending on Twitter.

Building The 15 - Bucks Off-Season So Far...

Apparently Milwaukee Bucks owner Herb Kohl mandated that the Bucks "stay relevant" every year.  There are many definitions but being a borderline playoff team with a slim chance of contending for a divisional title is far from relevant in my mind.  Instead I was hoping with all the potential roster turnover this off-season that it would allow Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond to bottom out as I advised at the start of the off-season despite Kohl's mandate.

As I said in my review of the 2013 NBA Draft for the Bucks, I generally liked how Hammond handled the draft because it looked like he veered from his boss mandated approach of just trying to stay relevant.

Unfortunately the five moves Hammond made since the draft show that he is continuing to make short-sided, expensive moves that will not help the Bucks long-term.  I rate four of the five moves Hammond made so far this off-season as mediocre to highly questionable, let's look at each one though (worst to best):

#5) Signed center Zaza Pachulia to a three-year, $15 million deal.  The Bucks were already stacked in the front court with Ersan Ilyasova, John Henson, Larry Sanders, Ekpe Udoh, Drew Gooden, and Gustavo Ayon.  The aforementioned group gives the Bucks three NBA starters for only two spots (Ilyasova, Henson, and Sanders), two nice role players (Udoh and Ayon), and a guy that should be amnestied (Gooden).  The Bucks have some decisions to make on extending Sanders and Udoh but now they've committed $5 million a year to a nice backup center, which is 50% too much for a guy that will turn 30 years old next season.

#4) Signed shooting guard O.J. Mayo to a three-year, $24 million deal.  Last season Mayo put up huge numbers for the Dallas Mavericks (averaged 15.3 points, 4.4 assists, & 3.5 rebounds over 35.5 minutes per game) as he was potentially entering free agency.  Mayo exercised his early termination option to void his $4.2 player option.  This feels a little bit like what John Salmons did for the Bucks a few years back en route to signing a ridiculous five-year, $39 million extension with the Bucks.  Things could be worse.  Former starting shooting guard Monta Ellis turned down what amounted to a three-year, $36 million deal earlier this off-season so at least that deal is not on the books.  The Mayo contract is much more palatable than the Salmons or purported Ellis extension, but it is still an overpay by Hammond.

#3) Traded small forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute aka "The Prince" to the Sacramento Kings for two future second round draft picks.  Very few wing players are able to guard shooting guards just as well as they guard power forwards like The Prince can.  I get that The Prince is below average on the offensive end of the court (averaged just 6.9 points per game for his career) and missed a bunch of games the last two seasons (39 games in 2011-12 and 24 in 2012-13) but his defensive skills alone made The Prince my 6th most valuable player on the roster at the end of last season.  Add in that The Prince has a chance to develop a three-point shot over the next few seasons and he has a chance to be Tony Allen 2.0, which makes him a bargain at $9 million over the next two seasons.  I know it seems inconsistent for me to say that I am fine paying The Prince $4.5 million a year for the next two years after killing the Bucks for paying Pachulia and Mayo as discussed above but there should always be a roster spot for a defensive freak The Prince.  There is no question that The Prince has been one of my favorite Bucks of the last decade.  Leaving my love for The Prince aside, the fact that the Bucks could not wrestle a first rounder with some lottery protections instead of two second rounders makes me less a fan of this deal.

#2) Traded shooting guard J.J. Redick to the Los Angeles Clipper for two future second round draft picks.  The Bucks got a second round pick from the Phoenix Suns and Clippers in this deal.  Somehow a bunch of really quality players were traded (Eric Bledsoe, Jared Dudley, and Redick) but the Bucks only ended up with draft picks.  I guess getting something for Redick is better that nothing since he was not going to re-sign with the Bucks but the only way the Clippers could get Redick was via a sign-and-trade so I wish the Bucks would have held out for a first round pick from the Clippers instead of a second rounder.  People keep killing the Bucks for turning Tobias Harris into two months of Redick.  That was a bad deal for sure but not nearly as bad as The Ray Allen Heist.  Plus let me reiterate my thoughts on Harris.  Despite putting up big numbers after joining the Magic last season I still think there is a much better chance that Harris becomes a good stats/bad team guy than a franchise player.   In exchange for The Prince and Redick the Bucks added four future second round picks between 2014 and 2018.  Before we get too excited, the odds of the Bucks wasting those picks like they did in the second round of the 2010 NBA Draft are much higher than them nabbing another Micheal Redd in the second round.

#1) Signed shooting guard/small forward Carlos Delfino to a two-year, $6 million deal. I didn't rank this the best move just because this is what I specifically advised Hammond to do in my free agent shopping guide for him.  I ranked it the highest because the Bucks are much better off signing short-term deals for smaller amounts while hoarding cap space instead of overpaying average NBA players.

I felt the need to break down each deal but the NBA can be summed up pretty concisely because it is a star driven league.  It is nearly impossible to acquire a Top 20 player via free agency unless you are one of the top NBA franchises in a large media market (Heat, Knicks, or Lakers) so signing shorter, cheaper deals like the Delfino contract makes way more sense for small market teams like the Bucks than overpaying decent NBA players like Pachulia or Mayo.  I get that Kohl thinks the Bucks need to stay relevant but it is high time that he changes his definition of relevant.  Instead let the Bucks bottom out and build for the long-term so the Bucks can finally contend for an NBA title aka be relevant.

Building The 15 - 2013-14 Free Agent Shopping Guide for John Hammond

With the 2013 NBA Draft in the books for the Milwaukee Bucks, general manager John Hammond now has 10 players on his roster for the 2013-14 NBA season:
PG: Nate Wolters and Ish Smith

SG: None

SF: Luc Mbah a Moute and Giannis Antetokounmpo
PF: Ersan Ilyasova, John Henson, Ekpe Udoh, and Drew Gooden
C: Larry Sanders and Gustavo Ayon

The Bucks were swept in the first round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs by the Miami Heat, the eventual NBA Champions.  Although the Bucks made the playoffs, they approached the off-season with a ton of questions looming over the roster so I gave Hammond a plan for how to approach the off-season.

As I discussed in my preview of the first round of the 2013 NBA Draft for the Bucks, Hammond didn't follow very much of my advice so far but with five (or six if Hammond finally amnesties Gooden) roster spots left to fill I can't help but reiterate my advice for Hammond.

NBA teams are allowed to discuss contracts with players from July 1st through July 10th but nothing can be signed until July 10th.  The Bucks have four players that played big minutes that are scheduled to be unrestricted free agents: shooting guard Monta Ellis, shooting guard J.J. Redick, small forward Mike Dunleavy Jr., and shooting guard/small forward Marquis Daniels.  The Bucks also have one player that played big minutes that is a restricted free agent in point guard Brandon Jennings.  Finally, the Bucks have two centers (Samuel Dalembert and Joel Przybilla) that are unrestricted free agents but neither seems to figure into their plans for next season unless they will play for the veteran minimum.

The Bucks tendered Jennings a $4.3 million qualify offer so they can match any offer that Jennings receives as a restricted free agent this off-season.  In Hammond's press conference following the draft he said that the Bucks are going to pull out all the stops to resign Jennings.  The most another team can offer Jennings is a four-year deal while the Bucks can offer Jennings a five-year deal with higher annual raises than any other team.  The third option that Jennings has is to sign his $4.3 million qualifying offer, which means he would leave a bunch of money on the table next season, but it allows him to become an unrestricted free agent next off-season.

If the Bucks sign Jennings to a contract long-term contract that averages $11 million (or less) a year that is a great deal for the Bucks that worst case scenario becomes a valuable trade chip.  If Jennings earns any more than $11 million per year he becomes a drag on the salary cap though.

Even if the Bucks and Jennings cannot agree to a long-term deal, I am fine with the Bucks signing him to his one-year, $4.3 million qualifying offer.  That gives the Bucks a myriad of options: move him at the trade deadline, re-sign him next off-season to a long-term contract, or even move him next off-season in a sign-and-trade.

The Bucks have a gaping hole at shooting guard.  There are reports that the Bucks have strong interest in J.R. Smith.  My guess is that interest is not mutual unless the Bucks make a huge offer, which would be silly given that Smith is a volatile, high-volume shooter.  I think of J.R. Smith as the love child of Stephen Jackson and Monta Ellis so obviously the Bucks should not sign Smith.

Speaking of Ellis, the Bucks should also resist the urge to pay Ellis or Redick anything more than the mid-level exception.  I would be shocked if Ellis or Redick only signed for the mid-level exception so let them leave via free agency.

Instead of flashing big money for Ellis, Redick, and Smith it makes much more sense to offer cheaper contracts to Dunleavy (two-years for $7 million) and Daniels (bi-annual veteran minimum).  Besides that, the Bucks should follow Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson's lead by hoarding cap space, signing undrafted free agents, and selectively making big money splashes in free agency.

I am totally fine with the Bucks offering max-contracts to one of the three coveted free agents this off-season: center Dwight Howard, point guard Chris Paul, or power forward Josh Smith.  The agents for Howard and Paul probably would not even field Hammond's call so you can cross those guys off the list.  There is an outside chance that Smith's agent would at least take the call since the Bucks almost landed Smith at the trade deadline but Smith's main interest in playing with the Bucks was to team-up with Ellis so I would be shocked if Smith wanted to sign with the Bucks this off-season since it looks like Ellis will be playing elsewhere next season.

Instead of overpaying average players, think of the Drew Gooden and John Salmons deals, the Bucks should wait in the wings to let the mid-level guys get overpaid and then start bottom feeding.  The Rockets recently released former Bucks shooting guard Carlos Delfino.  Signing a guy like Delfino to a short-term deal like I proposed for Dunleavy above (two-years for $7 million) is fiscally responsible but handing out any bigger contracts to non-franchise guys is senseless.

In terms of undrafted free agents, there were a number of interesting prospects that I signed off on the Bucks taking with the 43rd pick in the 2013 NBA Draft that went undrafted so I obviously support the Bucks adding the following three players to their roster: Phil Pressey (PG), Seth Curry (SG), and Trevor Mbajwe (PF).

Besides the three undrafted free agent prospects just highlighted, here are ten other intriguing undrafted prospects that the Bucks should consider adding to their roster: D.J. Cooper (PG, 5'10", 172 lbs, Ohio, 20 years old), Myck Kabongo (PG, 6'3", 180 lbs, Texas, 20 years old), B.J. Young (PG, 6'4", 179 lbs, Arkansas, 20 years old),  Vander Blue (SG, 6'5", 197 lbs, Marquette, 20 years old), Brandon Paul (SG, 6'4", 201 lbs, Illinois, 22 years old),  Michael Snaer (SG, 6'5", 201 lbs, Florida State, 24 years old), Khalif Wyatt (SG, 6'4", 212 lbs, Temple, 22 years old), C.J. Leslie (SF, 6'9", 209 lbs, N.C. State, 22 years old), Jackie Carmichael (PF, 6'9", 241 lbs, Illinois State, 23 years old), and Vitalis Chikoko (C, 6'10", 219 lbs, Germany, 22 years old).

Although I don't hold out much hope, it will be interesting to see if Hammond follows any of my advice.  Either way, check back as free agency starts to unfold because I will have a full breakdown of Hammond's decisions.

Building The 15 - 2013 Milwaukee Bucks Draft Picks

This is my third year doing a "mock" first round NBA Draft (2011, 2012, and 2013) and my fourth year reviewing the Bucks actual draft (2010, 2011, and 2012).

Usually there are a ton of trades in the first round of the NBA Draft, which makes it really hard to marry pick, player, and team correctly.  True to form, there were a ton of trades in the first round of the 2013 NBA Draft.  I nailed the exact draft number and player for only one pick* out of 30 in the first round of the 2013 NBA Draft.

Although that seems like I did a horrible job, I correctly predicted 24 out of 30 players** that went in the first round of the 2013 NBA Draft.  Of the 6 guys*** that I incorrectly predicted would go in the first round, they all were drafted by the 43rd pick so my prognostication skills are pretty good.

Here is a full breakdown of the two players that the Milwaukee Bucks drafted in the 2013 NBA Draft:

1st Round (15th Overall): Giannis ("Bo" or "The Greek Freak") Antetokounmpo
Position: Small Forward
Age: 18
Birth date: December 16, 1994
Birthplace: Athens, Greece
School: N/A
Class: N/A
Height: 6'9"
Weight: 215 lbs
Reach: N/A
Wingspan: N/A
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Versatile point forward, great size/length for his position, and good ball handler & passer for his size
Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Needs to add strength, needs to improve consistency with his jump shot, and plays against weak competition
Other Possible Picks: Dennis Schroeder (PG, Germany), Sergey Karasev (SG, Russia), and Shane Larkin (PG, Miami)
Twitter: N/A
Tweet:

Love #Bucks taking a boom-or-bust pick like Giannis Antetokoumpo. Let the tankapalooza for next season start! #NBADraft
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 28, 2013

The only thing that worries me about the #Bucks first round pick is that I had some flashes of Yi... #NBADraft
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 28, 2013

The backcourt Larry Sanders comparisons are very appropriate. Glad that #Bucks are swinging for the fences instead trying for bunt singles.
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 28, 2013

Analysis: Early in the draft process there were two spellings of his last name: Adetokunbo and Antetokounmpo, it seems like everyone has settled on Antetokounmpo.  On ESPN's draft telecast they said his nickname should be Bo.  I prefer The Greek Freak but Bo is easier to type so let's stick with that for this post.

The youngest player in the draft is drawing comparisons to Kevin Durant. Trust me, if Bo turns out to be 75% of Durant, this will be the best pick of Hammond's tenure and possibly the highest ROI of any pick in the 2013 NBA Draft.  Just to inflate already high expectations, Bo has also been compared to Scottie Pippen and Lamar Odom as well because of his potential ability to be a point-forward.

This was a total luxury pick for the Bucks that I fully support.  Early indications are that Bo wants to play in the NBA next season despite only playing in lower divisions in Greece so far and never even traveling outside the country until a few weeks ago when he wowed scouts in Italy.

I wish the Bucks could stash Bo in Europe or the NBADL for a few years to help them bottom out but if Bo wants to play in the NBA I am fine with that decision as long as it doesn't overwhelm him to the point that it stunts his growth on the court.

There is a better chance that Bo flames out as another European prospect that never fulfills the lofty expectations than Bo is selected for an NBA All-Star game.  Even taking that into account, these are the kind of boom-or-bust picks that small market teams have to make because teams like the Bucks can rarely sign marquee free agents but if you draft a stud (think Durant), he might stay with your franchise for the next decade.

If Bo even turns out to be an NBA starter then the Bucks' new favorite number will be 15 since they drafted two quality players at that spot in four years: Larry Sanded in 2010 and Bo in 2013.


2nd Round (43rd Overall): Nate ("Lukno Udriour") Wolters
Position: Point Guard
Age: 22
Birth date: May 15, 1991
Birthplace: St. Cloud, MN
School: South Dakota State
Class: Senior
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 196 lbs
Reach: 8'2"
Wingspan: 6'4"
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Crafty point guard who can get to the rim, good shooter with range, high basketball IQ, excellent ball handler, and sees the floor well/gets teammates involved
Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Lacks lateral quickness and explosiveness and can struggle creating his own shot against athletic defenders
Other Possible Picks: Marko Todorovic (SF, Serbia), Erick Green (PG, Virginia Tech), and Lorenzo Brown (PG, N.C. State)
Twitter: @NateWolters
Tweet:

Despite the off the court issues, I love Ledo's game. Hope #Bucks keep Ledo instead of trading him for Muscala. #NBADraft
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 28, 2013

If #Bucks kept Ledo they'd have drafted two lottery tickets but trading for Wolters makes the draft a lottery ticket & bond dividend.
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 28, 2013

If #Bucks end up with Wolters, fine with trading Ledo but bummed if #Bucks end up with Muscala. #nbadraft
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 28, 2013

Analysis: The Bucks actually drafted Ricardo Ledo (PG, Providence) with the 43rd pick.  I signed off on the Bucks drafting Ledo in the first round so I thought it was a steal that they got him in the second round.  Instead of keeping Ledo, the Bucks traded for Wolters who was actually drafted 38th overall by the Washington Wizards but was traded to the Philadelphia 76ers before being ending up with the Bucks.  To get Wolters the Bucks gave up Ledo and Houston's second round pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, which they acquired last year as a part of the Jon Brockman, Jon Leuer, and Shaun Livingston for Samuel Dalembert deal.

Since 1996-97 a player has averaged 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists only eight times over an entire season. Amazingly Wolters accomplished that feat twice but that comes with the caveat that Wolters played in the Summit League as opposed to the Big "Ten" or the Big East.

Different advanced metrics that use collegiate statistics to project NBA success had Wolters as being worthy of a Top 10 pick so getting him in the second round seems like a steal.  ESPN's Kevin Pelton uses advance stats to project future production.  Since Bo is not able to be projected in Pelton's model, just based on drafting Wolters, Pelton found that the Bucks had the 5th best draft in terms of adding talent given their draft position (ESPN Insider subscription required).

Clearly Wolters is a safer pick than Ledo, I am just bummed that the Bucks gave up Houston's second round pick in next year's draft because the Bucks need to start hoarding draft picks since that is one of the only ways they can get players to come to Milwaukee.  Either way, it will be interesting to see if Wolters or Ledo has a better NBA career.

Finally in terms of NBA comparisons there are a number of Jimmer Fredette comps being made about Wolters but I have a different comparison.  For those of you that don't understand the Lukno Udriour nickname above, Wolters reminds me of a nice blend of Luke Ridnour and Beno Udrih.  Trust me, that is meant as a compliment because best cases scenario Wolters turns into an NBA starter but worst case scenario he looks like a backup that will have a long NBA career.

The Bucks are in desperate need of a spark for the franchise.  Besides going to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2001, the Bucks have not won a playoff series since 1989.  The last few years the Bucks hung around as a borderline playoff team but only made the playoffs two of the last seven seasons.  Despite my disappointment with giving up a second round pick in the 2014 NBA Draft as a part of the Ledo/Wolters trade, I like that the Bucks swung for the fences in the first round drafting Bo and added a proven commodity in the second round drafting Wolters.

I really thought ten years down the road we would look back at the 2012 NBA Draft for the Bucks as one of the best in franchise history.  Just a year later, the Bucks already traded shooting guard Jodie Meeks, their second round pick in that draft, so it is up to power forward John Henson to fulfill that promise.  I don't want to jinx the 2013 NBA Draft for the Bucks but I feel even better about this draft than I did about last year's draft so may be the Bucks finally got the spark the franchise desperate needs.



Footnote:
* Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG, Georgia) went 8th to the Detroit Pistons.

** = I missed on Mason Plumlee (PF, Duke) went 22nd to the Nets, Solomon Hill (SF, Arizona) went 23rd to the Pacers, Andre Roberson (SF, Colorado) went 26th to the T-Wolves, Livio Jean-Charles (PF, France) went 28th to the Spurs, Archie Goodwin (SG, Kentucky) went 29th to the Thunder, and Nemanja Nedovic (SG, Serbia) went 30th the Suns.

*** = Glen Rice Jr. (SF, Michigan) predicted 18th went 35th, Tony Mitchell (SF, North Texas) predicted 20th went 37th, Jamaal Franklin (SG, San Diego State) predicted 22nd went 41st, Allen Crabbe (SG, California) predicted 23rd went 31st, Ricardo Ledo (SG, Providence) predicted 29th went 43rd, and Alex Abrines (SG, Spain) predicted 30th went 32nd.

Building The 15 - 2013 First Round NBA Mock Draft

Much like I said the last two years (2011 and 2012) in my first round mock draft of the NBA Draft, undoubtedly there will be a ton of trades deeming this "mock" draft essentially useless, but I want to get on record what I think each general manager should do with each pick if they kept it:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers - Victor Oladipo (SG, 6'4", 213 lbs, Indiana, 21 years old) - My unabashed draft crush will be one of the best defensive shooting guards in the NBA as a rookie.  If Oladipo takes his offensive game to the next level in the NBA then the Cavs will rival the Golden State Warriors for the most potent back court in the NBA.

2. Orlando Magic - Otto Porter (SF, 6'9", 198 lbs, Georgetown, 20 years old) - Despite already having small forward Tobias Harris on the roster thanks to a lopsided trade with the Bucks, Porter could be the best player in the draft so talent trumps need.

3. Washington Wizards - Anthony Bennett (PF, 6'8", 240 lbs, UNLV, 20 years old) - The potential second coming of Larry Johnson has weight and injury issues, which gives me some reservations.

4. Charlotte Bobcats - Nerlens Noel (C, 7'0". 206 lbs, Kentucky 19 years old) - Will most likely go first overall despite currently rehabbing a torn ACL because of the lack of a surefire franchise player in this draft.  If Noel can add some weight/muscle, worst case I see him as legitimate defensive force in the mold of Ben Wallace.

5. Phoenix Suns - Michael Carter-Williams (PG, 6'6", 184 lbs, Syracuse, 21 years old) - Height outweighs his crude jump shot because he is done growing but can definitely improve offensively.

6. New Orleans Pelicans - C.J. McCollum (PG, 6'3", 197 lbs, Lehigh, 21 years old) - According to almost every talent evaluator, they found McCollum to be one of the most engaging players throughout the evaluation process but make no mistake about it, without Damien Lillard coming from a small school and still winning rookie of the year last season, there is no way that McCollum would have cracked the Top 6 in this draft.

7. Sacramento Kings - Alex Len (C, 7'1", 225 lbs, Maryland, 20 years old) - Injuries always worry me, especially with centers (think Andrew Bogut, Andrew Bynum, and Greg Oden).  Despite having a new ownership group, it will take a few years to scrub the Maloof stink off the franchise, which makes this boom-or-bust pick a little risky.

8. Detroit Pistons - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG, 6'6", 204 lbs, Georgia, 20 years old) - Possesses one of the best offensive skill sets in the country.  Even if you play in the SEC, when your team goes 15-17 it is hard to get national recognition even if you, which is why KCP is not getting Top 5 buzz.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves - Cody Zeller (PF, 7'0", 230 lbs, Indiana, 20 years old) - Despite not being a huge Zeller fan, pairing him with Ricky Rubio is the perfect match that serves as Kevin Love insurance. There was a rumor that the Cavs offered the first pick in the draft, Dion Waiters, and Tristan Thompson for Kevin Love.  I normally do not support trading lottery tickets for one of the 20 best players in the NBA but I would make an exception here because Love is injury prone and will most likely leave via free agency over the next few years.  Proactively moving Love would give the T-Wolves Oladipo, Waiters, and Thompson to pair with Rubio and Pekovic, which would make them a "must watch" on NBA League Pass.

10. Portland Trail Blazers - Ben McLemore (SG, 6'5", 189 lbs, Kansas, 20 years old) - Probably five spots lower than McLemore will actually go in the draft but his passive play gives me reservation about how successful he will be in the NBA even though he has the best chance to be an All-Star in the entire draft.

11. Philadelphia 76ers - Steven Adams (C, 7'0", 255 lbs, Pittsburgh, 19 years old) - Taking a center in the first round allows the new management of the 76ers to move on from the Andrew Bynum nightmare.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Toronto) - Trey Burke (PG, 6'1", 187 lbs, Michigan, 20 years old) - There is a chance Burke overcomes his diminutive stature at the next level but I continue to have T.J. Ford nightmares every time I see Burke.  Add in that Burke moved up most draft boards thanks to a productive March and Burke has too many red flags for me to take him in the Top 10.

13. Dallas Mavericks - Sergey Karasev (SG, 6'7", 197 lbs, Russia, 19 years old) - The Mavs are continue to shed salary to keep alive their slim hopes of signing Chris Paul and Dwight Howard this off-season.  Taking a high upside European player like Karasev allows them to add a nice commodity they can stash in Europe to keep their books clean.

14. Utah Jazz - Shane Larkin (PG, 6'0", 171 lbs, Miami, 20 years old) - Much like Burke, I would have taken Larkin five spots higher if he was even a few inches taller but the ghost of T.J. Ford continues to haunt my judgment.

15. Milwaukee Bucks - Dennis Schroeder (PG, 6'2", 165 lbs, Germany, 19 years old) - There is no way Brandon Jennings, J.J. Redick, and Monta Ellis all re-sign with the Bucks.  If none of the trio re-signs with the Buckjs then Schroeder starts in the NBA next year.  If any of them re-sign then the Bucks can stash Schroeder in Europe for a year or two to help him refine his game.

16. Boston Celtics - Shabazz Muhammad (SF, 6'6", 222 lbs, UCLA, 20 years old) - Unfortunately for Celtics fans it is looking more and more like Paul Pierce's days in Boston are numbered, which puts even more pressure on Muhammad.  Going into the season it looked like Muhammad might go 1st overall but attitude, offensive struggles, and the revelation that he lied about his age all hurt his draft stock.

17. Atlanta Hawks - Lucas Nogueira (C, 7'0", 220 lbs, Brazil, 20 years old) - With two consecutive picks, the Hawks will likely stash one of the two players they draft overseas.  Nogueria is a perfect candidate because with a little seasoning he could help form the perfect twin-towers tandem with Al Horford down the road.

18. Atlanta Hawks (from Houston via Brooklyn) - Glen Rice Jr. (SF, 6'6", 211 lbs, NBDL, 22 years old) - After a number of off-the-court issues dogged him a year ago, Rice tore up NBDL the second half of the season to move from a fringe second round pick to a mid-first round pick.  Rice's offensive game is too enticing to pass up at this point in the draft.

19. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Los Angeles) - Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF, 6'9", 215 lbs, Greece, 18 years old) - After drafting Oladipo 1st overal, the Cavs can trot out a pretty impressive starting five of Kyrie Irving (point guard), Oladipo (shooting guard), Waiters (small forward), Thompson (power forward), and Anderson Varejao (center).  Although that means Waiters has to play out of position, adding Antetokounmpo give the Cavs a starting small forward down the road once they decide whether Oladipo or Waiters is their long-term answer at shooting guard.

20. Chicago Bulls - Tony Mitchell (PF, 6'9", 236 lbs, North Texas, 21 years old) - Admitted to having some maturity issues in college but his physical skill set makes him the perfect player for Tom Thibodeau's system.

21. Utah Jazz (from Golden State via Brooklyn) - Kelly Olynyk (PF, 7'0", 234 lbs, Gonzaga, 22 years old) - The advanced stats say that Olynyk projects as a perfect stretch power forward in the NBA, which is not really a need given the front court depth the Jazz have (Derrick Favors and Enis Kanter) even if both Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson leave via free agency, but Olynyk feels like steal this late in the draft so talent outweighs positional need.

22. Brooklyn Nets - Jamaal Franklin (SG, 6'5", 191 lbs, San Diego State, 22 years old) - Despite having a ton of money committed to Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace, with MarShon Brooks on the way out, the Nets could use a versatile wing to come off the bench.

23. Indiana Pacers - Allen Crabbe (SG, 6'6", 197 lbs, California, 21 years old) - Projects as one of the best offensive threats in the draft but still not sure about his defensive abilities.  If Crabbe performs well defensively, he will be the steal of the draft.

24. New York Knicks - Reggie Bullock (SG, 6'7", 200 lbs, North Carolina, 22 years old) - A late bloomer makes me question whether he can develop into a consist starter at shooting guard but worst case scenario projects as a three-point assassin off the bench.

25. Los Angeles Clippers - Tim Hardaway Jr. (SG, 6'6", 199 lbs, Michigan, 21 years old) - Reminds me of Monta Ellis given the fact that he is a high volume shooter so learning under Jamal Crawford's wing will help Hardaway fulfill his destiny of becoming Jamonta Elford 2.0.

26. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis via Houston) - Tony Snell (SF, 6'7", 198 lbs, New Mexico, 21 years old) - With his long arms he looks like a versatile NBA defender but unfortunately he didn't put up big deal or block numbers in college so I am not sure he can to it in the NBA. This late in the first round, taking a gamble on the body is worth the risk.

27. Denver Nuggets - Gorgui Dieng (C, 6'11", 203 lbs, Louisville, 23 years old) - College experience used to be an asset but now teams perceive that as lost NBA seasons, which bumps the oldest player in the draft to the end of the first round.

28. San Antonio Spurs - Rudy Gobert (C, 7'2", 238 lbs, France, 20 years old) - With Tiago Splitter a restricted free agent in his late 20's, I see the Spurs tendering Splitter but adding his replace a few years down the road in Gobert.

29. Oklahoma City Thunder - Ricardo Ledo (SG, 6'6", 197 lbs, Providence, 20 years old) - Too bad Ledo had so many issues off the court because heading into college, Ledo looked like a surefire lottery pick thanks to his impressive offensive abilities.

30. Phoenix Suns (from Miami via L.A. and Cleveland) - Alex Abrines (SG, 6'5", 195 lbs, Spain, 20 years old) - I would be shocked if Mason Plumlee was not drafted in the first round, which would be a safer pick here but I would rather swing for the fences taking a high upside guy like Abrines at the end of the first round instead of legging out a bunt single with Plumlee.

Today is Cheesehead Chick and my fourth wedding anniversary, which means I will be watching the 2013 NBA Draft on delay tonight so check back later tonight on Twitter @CheeseheadSN for my quick thoughts on what the Milwaukee Bucks do and Sunday for my traditional Sunday Funday post recapping the Bucks' 2013 NBA Draft.

Building The 15 - 2013 NBA Draft First Round Preview for John Hammond

Each of the last two season Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond pulled off a trade on the eve of the draft.  In 2011, Hammond made a three-team trade giving up Corey Maggette, John Salmons, and the 10th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft in exchange for Stephen Jackson, Livingston, and the 19th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft.  The actual players exchanged in that trade are not worth discussing because it amounted to a few franchises re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  The huge bummer of that trade that is worth discussing is that by moving down from 10th to 19th, the Bucks missed out on the chance to draft Klay Thompson and Kawhi Leonard.  There is no guarantee that Hammond would have taken Thompson or Leonard, but the fact that the Bucks missed out on the chance to draft two franchise players casts a pall over the trade.

In 2012, Hammond traded Jon Brockman, Jon Leuer, Shaun Livingston, and the 12th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft to the Houston Rockets for Samuel Dalembert, the 14th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, a future second round pick, and cash considerations.  The Bucks drafted John Henson with the 14th pick.  Although I am disappointed the Bucks gave up Leuer, the disappointment is mitigated by the fact that the Bucks should have John Henson and Larry Sanders in the fold for the next decade.  By trading back from 12 to 14 the only players the Bucks missed out on drafting were Jeremy Lamb and Kendall Marshall.  I would much rather have Henson than Lamb or Marshall so this is no where close to missing out on Thompson and Leonard like they did last year.

Will Hammond make a trade for the third year in a row on the eve of the draft?  With only eight players currently under contract for next season (Gustavo Ayon, Drew Gooden, John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova, Luc Mbah a Moute, Larry Sanders, Ish Smith, Ekpe Udoh), the Bucks do not have a ton of trade chips.

There awere reports that the Boston Celtics are looking for a first round pick for Paul Pierce.  The two teams that showed interest are the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Milwaukee Bucks.  Even if the Bucks were able to dump Drew Gooden's contract, the trade makes no sense for the Bucks because Pierce is owed $15 million next season while Gooden is set to earn $6.7 million each of the next two seasons so they are not even saving money in the trade.

Normally I advocate taking the best player available but the top three back court players from last season (Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis, and J.J. Redick) could all be playing elsewhere next season so the Bucks have to consider drafting for need instead of taking the best player available.

As I said in my second round preview for the Milwaukee Bucks, the NBA Draft is covered so well that I am pretty confident the first 11 players that will come off the board in the first round of the 2013 NBA Draft, in some order, are: Nerlens Noel, Victor Oladipo, Otto Porter, Anthony Bennett, Alex Len, Ben McLemore, Michael Carter-Williams, Trey Burke, C.J. McCollum, Cody Zeller, and Kantavious Caldwell-Pope.

Take that with a grain of salt though because last year in my preview of the first round of the 2012 NBA Draft for the Milwaukee Bucks I thought I had a good feel for the nine guys that would NOT be available when the Bucks were on the clock with the 14th pick.  Much to my pleasant surprise, John Henson (one of those nine guys) fell to 14 so the Bucks smartly drafted Henson.

I am fine with the Bucks drafting any of the 11 players mentioned above.  I have a particularly strong affinity for Oladipo, Porter, Carter-Williams, McCollum, and Caldwell-Pope.  Assuming they are all drafted, here are the 10 guys (most to least) that Hammond and Company should strongly consider if they are available with the 15th pick:

Dennis Schroeder (PG, 6'2", 165 lbs, Germany, 19 years old) - Last time the Bucks drafted a point guard that played in Europe (Brandon Jennings in 2009) it worked out pretty well.  Ultimately I think Jennings is a more of a slashing shooting guard than a point guard but I still think he is salvageable as the third-best player on a championship team, which means the Bucks should not give Jennings a max-contract this off-season. If the Bucks draft Schroeder, it would allow Jennings to shift over to shooting guard.

Sergey Karasev (SG, 6'7", 197 lbs, Russia, 19 years old) - Hard to see Karasev playing in the NBA next season but his length and shooting ability makes him a potential franchise player for the next decade.

Giannis Antetokoumpo (SF, 6'9", 215 lbs, Greece, 18 years old) - My affinity for overseas players is partly because it gives the Bucks the best chance to bottom out while allowing assets to improve overseas.  Antetokoumpo has the highest ceiling and lowest floor of the three overseas players just discussed.

Shane Larkin (PG, 6'0", 171 lbs, Miami, 20 years old) - Apparently Bucks management were blown away with Larkin's workout.  I like everything about Larkin besides his height and let's not forget that a smallish guard (T.J. Ford) had a great workout before the 2003 NBA Draft for the Bucks.  On the plus side, I've heard some people compare Larkin to Kemba Walker so now we know his ceiling (Walker) and floor (Ford).

Allen Crabbe (SG, 6'6", 197 lbs, California, 21 years old) - A few pundits compared Crabbe to Klay Thompson.  That seems rather lofty but having a tall shooting guard that can actually defend for the first time since Ray Allen left town would be nice. 

Glen Rice Jr. (SF, 6'6", 211 lbs, NBDL, 22 years old) - Offensive production has a way of helping people brush over off-the-court issues.  There is no doubt that Rice has the chance to be a scoring machine in the NBA, the question is whether his off-the-court issues will get in the way. 

Reggie Bullock (SG, 6'7", 200 lbs, North Carolina, 22 years old) - It is easier to evaluate players when they have one elite skill.  Bullock is an elite shooter, which is enough for me to justify taking him 15th overall.

Shabazz Muhammad (SF, 6'6", 222 lbs, UCLA, 20 years old) - The Harrison Barnes comparisons seem way too convenient.  I wouldn't touch Muhammad in the lottery but outside the lottery, the chances of drafting a franchise player are slim, so why not swing for the fences.

Jamaal Franklin (SG, 6'5", 191 lbs, San Diego State, 22 years old) - No question Franklin is a great defender but unless he can improve his long-range shooting, I see him being a poor man's Tony Allen.

Ricardo Ledo (SG, 6'6", 197 lbs, Providence, 20 years old) - Some speculate that Ledo was a lock to go in the lottery before off the court issues precluded Ledo from playing at Providence.  Thus drafting Ledo involves taking a bit of a leap of faith but one certainly worth taking to get such a talented, big bodied shooting guard.

I would be shocked if the Bucks passed on any of the aforementioned 21 players unless they decide one of the front court players not discussed (Steven Adams, Lucas Nogueira, Kelly Olynyk, Tony Mitchell, or Mason Plumlee) is too enticing to pass up but with the potential back court turnover I find that highly unlikely.

With how I think the Milwaukee Bucks should approach the 2013 NBA Draft documented, make sure to check back tomorrow to read my "what each GM should do" mock draft of the first round of the 2013 NBA Draft.

Building The 15 - 2013 NBA Draft Second Round Preview for John Hammond

Last month I gave Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond my 10 Point Plan for how he should approach the off-season.  So far Hammond has only followed one piece of my advice when he picked up the team's $1.5 million option on center Gustavo Ayon for next season.

Of the nine remaining pieces of advice, Hammond was unable to deliver on two of them.  First, he hired Larry Drew as the next head coach instead of hiring a younger and cheaper defensive-minded coach.  Second, despite offering a two-year, $25 million extension to entice shooting guard Monta Ellis to exercise his $11 million player option for next season, Ellis opted-out of the last year of his contract with the Bucks.  Let me be clear, I wanted the Bucks to have Ellis on an $11 million expiring contract as a trade asset but paying Ellis $36 million over the next three seasons is way too much for a high-volume shooter that is a below average defender.

That leave seven pieces of advice that might or might not be followed.  Ironically my 7th piece of advice in my 10 Point Plan was to read my draft previews so let's start to break down the 2013 NBA Draft for the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Bucks currently hold the 15th and 43rd picks in the draft.  With how well the NBA Draft is covered, you can almost be assured that the following 35 guys (Nerlens Noel, Victor Oladipo, Otto Porter, Anthony Bennett, Alex Len, Ben McLemore, Michael Carter-Williams, Trey Burke, C.J. McCollum, Cody Zeller, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Steven Adams, Sergey Karasev, Lucas Nogueira, Giannis Antetolounmpo, Dennis Schroeder, Shabazz Muhammad, Shane Larkin, Kelly Olynyk, Jamaal Franklin, Tony Mitchell, Mason Plumlee, Reggie Bullock, Glen Rice Jr., Allen Crabbe, Ricardo Ledo, Gorgui Dieng, Tim Hardaway Jr., Isaiah Canaan, Tony Snell, Rudy Gobert, Jeff Withey, Mike Muscala, Alex Abrines, and Pierre Jackson) will no longer be available with the 43rd pick.

Despite the fact that the Bucks have nabbed a few starters in the second round of the draft since 2000 (Michael Redd, Dan Gadzuric, Ersan Ilyasova, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute) the 2nd round is a crap shot so I support the Bucks taking any of those 35 guys in the second round if they are still available.  Here are the 10 guys I like most to least that Hammond and Company should strongly consider if they are available with the 43rd pick:

Andre Roberson (SF, 6'7", 206 lbs, Colorado, 21 years old) - According to a number of advanced metrics (i.e. using college statistics to project success in the NBA), Roberson is one of the best players in the entire draft. 

Nate Wolters (PG, 6'5", 196 lbs, South Dakota State, 22 years old) - Although Wolters does not excel in any particular area, he is above average in almost every facet.  With all due respect to Ish Smith, the only guard currently under contract for the Bucks, Wolters is already a better player than Smith.

Erik Green (PG, 6'3", 178 lbs, Virginia Tech, 22 years old) - My sister-in-law is set to receive her PhD from Virginia Tech next season so I've developed a soft spot in my heart for the university.  Even leaving that bias aside, Green was one of the most potent scorers in college basketball last year, which makes him a great combo guard off the bench next season with the potential to start in a few season.

Archie Goodwin (SG, 6'5", 196 lbs, Kentucky, 18 years old) - Although Goodwin's shot is a work in progress at best, under the tutelage of new Milwaukee Bucks assistant coach Nick Van Exel, I see Goodwin as Jodie Meeks 2.0.

Grant Jerrett (PF, 6'10", 232 lbs, Arizona, 19 years old) - Still not sure why Jerrett entered the draft after his freshman season but the Bucks can treat next season as a red-shirt season for Jarrett to ease his transition to the NBA.

Lorenzo Brown (PG, 6'5", 189 lbs, N.C. State, 22 years old) - Although Brown is technically a point guard, his shot is so deficient right now that teams will concede anything more than a mid-range jumpers until he fixes his shot.  Even if Brown cannot develop a consistent shot in the NBA, worst case scenario his speed and passing ability mean he will be a quality backup point guard in the league for a long time.

Trevor Mbajwe (PF, 6'8", 236 lbs, Minnesota, 24 years old) - I had a well documented man-crush on Kenneth Faried heading into the 2011 NBA Draft so I was immediately sold when some scouts pegged Mbajwe as a poor man's Kenneth Faried.

Seth Curry (SG, 6'3", 179 lbs, Duke, 22 years old) - His dad (Dell) and brother (Stephen) are two of the deadliest long-range shooters in NBA history so we know Seth has the shooting gene.  Some might think 43 is too early since most pundits think he will go undrafted but I am fine with the Bucks taking Curry because of his otherworldly shooting ability.

Phil Pressey (PG, 6'0", 177 lbs, Missouri, 22 years old) - Speaking of bloodlines, Phil's father Paul was one of the best Bucks in the 80's.  Although I have lower expectations for Phil, I still see him contributing next season based on his collegiate production.

Marko Todorovic (SF, 6'11", 245 lbs, Serbia, 21 years old) - Although Todorovic will give the Bucks nothing for a few years, with the proper seasoning in Europe, we might be looking at the second coming of Ersan Illyasova.

With how I think the Bucks should approach the second round of the 2013 NBA Draft documented, make sure to read my thoughts on how the Bucks should approach the first round of the 2013 NBA Draft later today and with my "what each GM should do" mock draft of the first round tomorrow.

Building The 15 - Initial Advice for John Hammond

The 2012-13 Milwaukee Brewers were arguably the most disappointing playoff team in franchise history.  That might seem harsh but keep in mind the Bucks had their most talented roster since the "Big Three left town, but almost everyone saw the Bucks getting swept by the Heat in the opening round of the playoffs.

I don't normally include quotes in my posts but backup shooting guard J.J. Redick, despite joining the team in February from Orlando, summed up the season as succinctly as possible: "We had a losing record. We were the eighth seed and we lost, 4-0, in the first round...If you're taking positives from mediocrity, you're setting yourself up for a major fail in the future. Hopefully, every person takes it upon themselves to get better in the off-season...We'll see what the team looks like, if I'm back, and hopefully, we can be better and gain momentum for this franchise." Well said Redick because as you are about to see, it is time for the Bucks to bottom out instead of lingering as a fringe playoff team.

In case you missed my final player rankings for the 2012-13 Milwaukee Bucks, take a  quick look because it will help set the stage for how I think Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond should approach next season.  Much like I did in 2011 and 2012, get ready for my advice for Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond for how to approach this off-season.

The Bucks currently have seven guaranteed contracts totaling just $30 million next season: Ersan Ilyasova ($7.9 million), Drew Gooden ($6.7 million), Luc Mbah a Moute ($4.6 million), Ekpe Udoh ($4.5 million), Larry Sanders ($3.1), John Henson ($1.9 million), and Ish Smith ($1 million).

There are three players that are sort of guaranteed to be on the roster for next season.  Pending what happens with two options, the Bucks might be on the hook for another $12.5 million for two players: Monta Ellis holds a $11 million player option and the Bucks own a $1.5 million team option on Gustavo Ayon.  Besides that, Brandon Jennings is a restricted free agent, which means the Bucks can match any offer that Jennings receives this off-season.

That leaves fives players that are unrestricted free agents (their salary from last season in parenthesis): Samuel Dalembert ($6.7 million), J.J. Redick ($6 million), Mike Dunleavy ($3.75 million), Joel Przybilla ($1.4 million), and Marquis Daniels ($1.3 million).

With the backdrop set, here is my 10 Point Plan for Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond should approach this off-season:

#10) Pick-up Gustavo Ayon's $1.5 million team option for next season. Worst case scenario Ayon is a super cheap contract (by NBA standards) that turns into a salary inclusion in a trade next season.  Best case scenario, Ayon plays 10 minutes a game as the 4th or 5th guy off the bench.

#9) Amnesty Drew Gooden. I would love to see #AmnestyGooden trend on Twitter. The beauty of the amnesty provision for Gooden is that he would get paid every dollar that he is owed under his current contract: two-years for $13.4 million dollars. As I've said many times, I see Bucks owner Herb Kohl spacing out that bloated contract instead of making it go away, which makes no sense to me since Gooden is the only amnesty worthy player left on the roster. This would allow both sides to move on with the Bucks getting even more salary cap space that they will most likely not use but would open up one of their 15 roster spots to take a flyer on a younger guy that could actually contribute instead of having an aging veteran that will not contribute anything meaningful for the next two seasons.

#8) Offer Marquis Daniels and Joel Przybilla one-year, veteran minimum contracts. That might be a little cheap for Daniels since he started 33 games for the Bucks but paying Daniels anything more than $1.5 million doesn't make sense because there are tons of similar players (i.e. Ronnie Brewer, Daequan Cook, etc). The same cannot be said for Przybilla because he only appeared in 12 games all season, averaging a mere 5.7 minutes so just being offered a contract should be a big deal for Przybilla.

#7) As I said last year for #7, please read my preview of the players the Bucks should target in the first and second round of the 2013 NBA Draft.  No I don't have a big ego, but I do a ton of research on all professional drafts, so Hammond and Company should benefit from that love.

#6) Thank Samuel Dalembert J.J. Redick for their services. Last season Dalembert was suspended and docked pay for "conduct detrimental to the team". To add insult to injury, Dalembert said he could see himself playing for the Miami Heat next season while he was a member of the Bucks as they were getting swept by the Heat in the playoffs. This is a long way of saying I wouldn't even re-sign Dalembert for the veteran minimum, which would be over $5 million less than the Bucks paid Dalembert last season. Transitioning from Dalembert to Redick. For those that don't remember, the Bucks traded Beno Udrih, Tobias Harris, and Doron Lamb to the Orlando Magic for Redick, Gustavo Ayon, and Ish Smith.   I see Redick as more of a complimentary player than a franchise player so don't compound the short-sided trade by offering him a John Salmons-esque extension. Someone will be dumb enough to offer Redick a four or five year deal for seven or eight million dollars a year, just don't let that someone be the Bucks because that is way too much money for Steve Kerr 2.0.  If a sign and trade can get the Bucks a draft pick or an interesting expiring contracts, great.  If not, let Redick leave via free agency.

#5) Offer Mike Dunleavy the identical two-year, $7 million contract he signed before the 2011-12 season. After how well Dunleavy played the last two seasons, he might deserve to earn more but he would only get that from a non-playoff team. I think Dunleavy has three options: sign with one of the Top 5 teams for the veteran minimum to be a deadly shooter that is the 9th or 10th man in the rotation, sign the two-year $7 million deal with the Bucks (or a similarly situated borderline playoff team), or break the bank one last time by signing for what amounts to the mid-level exception with a perennial lottery team.

#4) Let Brandon Jennings test the market. I see Jennings as an entertaining player but nothing more than a third banana on a playoff team, which does not make him worth the max contract that he is seeking this off-season. Last off-season Jennings wanted a big extension like some of his other draftmates signed: Blake Griffin (five-year, $80 million), James Harden (five-year, $80 million), Stephen Curry (four-year, $44 million), DeMar DeRozan (four-year, $42 million), Jrue Holiday (four-year, $41 million extension), Ty Lawson (four-year, $48 million), and Taj Gibson (four-year, $38 million). The Bucks and Jennings never came to an agreement so I see three ways to proceed.  If an NBA team wants to pay Jennings like Griffin or Harden, let him leave via free agency.  If the Bucks can get a sign and trade similar to what I discussed above for Redick, take that for Jennings on his way out of town. If Jennings will take $10 million a year then re-sign him. If Jennings does not garner the type of interest he is expecting, sign Jennings to his one-year, $4.4 million qualifying offer.  I favor trying to get Jennings to sign his $4.4 million qualifying offer because at that price, Jennings would be woefully underpaid but that would give the Bucks a nice trade chip that could hopefully net the Bucks a draft pick at the trade deadline.

#3) Talk Monta Ellis into picking up his $11 million player option. Even before Ellis joined the Bucks I thought he was the perfect irrational confidence fourth banana volume shooter on a contender, which means $11 million a season is way too much to pay Ellis. As a result, Ellis should pick up his $11 million for next season for next season because he will never earn that much in any season for the rest of his career. The beauty of having Ellis for $11 million next season is that he becomes a valuable expiring contract at the 2014 NBA Trade Deadline. If Ellis declines his player option, let him leave via free agency if he wants to be paid more than the mid-level exception (four-year, $20 million deal). We can all agree that $5 million a year is too little to pay Ellis but $11 million is way too much so I know that seems like I am undervaluing Ellis by only authorizing paying him the mid-level exception but you can't afford to overpay for an offense-only point/shooting guard.

#2) Pass on any "marquee" free agents besides Chris Paul. The Bucks took Andrew Bogut with the 1st pick in the 2005 NBA Draft ahead of Marvin Williams (2nd), Deron Williams (3rd), and Chris Paul (4th). Although it is easy to look back and complain about passing D-Will and Paul, the consensus top two players in the 2005 NBA Draft were Bogut and Marvin Williams. Oh dang. The best "potential" free agents this off-season at each position are: Chris Paul (PG), Manu Ginobili (SG), Josh Smith (SF), David West (PF), and Dwight Howard (C).  All these guys will either re-sign with their team or never consider Milwaukee. The next best "potential" free agent this off-season at each position are: Jose Calderon (PG), Kevin Martin (SG), Andre Iguodala (SF), Paul Millsap (PF), Al Jefferson (C).  All those guys look like they are going get paid like franchise players even though none of them are even close to being one of the best 25 players in the NBA.  That is a long way of saying that unless Chris Paul will shot the world to sign with the Bucks, they should sit on the sidelines at the start of free agency. Signing cheaper, short-term deals later in free agency is what the Bucks need to do as a part of bottoming out.

#1) Hire a cheaper, defensive minded head coach as the 13th head coach in franchise history. I generally respect Michael Hunt's take on the Milwaukee Bucks but he missed the mark recently when he said the Bucks should go after former Orlando Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy and have current Houston Rockets assistant coach Kelvin Sampson as their backup plan. Van Gundy is a poor man's Phil Jackson meaning he does well meshing big personalities in the locker room but without the rings to show for it. The Bucks have very few big time players on their roster right now so hiring Van Gundy seems like overkill. In terms of Sampson, I think the NCAA rule book is arcane and out of date, but that doesn't change the fact that Sampson was under investigation for rules violations at Oklahoma when he left for Indiana. Instead of cleaning up his act at Indiana, Sampson continued to break NCAA rules thus he was precluded from coaching in the college ranks for rules violations at Oklahoma and Indiana. Leaving two of the Top 20 basketball programs in disarray because of recruiting violations is a character issue since Sampson was the head coach so the responsibility falls on his shoulders. As one of the top assistants in the NBA since 2008, there is no doubt that Sampson deserves to get a head coaching gig in the NBA this year, I just hope it is not in Milwaukee.  According to Yahoo! Sports’ Adrian Wojnarowski the Bucks narrowed their head coaching search to Los Angeles Lakers assistant Steve Clifford, Atlanta Hawks coach Larry Drew, and Sampson.  Obviously I do not support hiring Sampson and I am indifferent on hiring Clifford or Drew.  As it turns out, only two of the three will be coming back for second interviews because Clifford was already hired by Charlotte Horbobnetcats.  I haven't been involved in the interview process obviously but if I were in charge I  would hire a younger, defensive minded coach such as: J.B. Bickerstaff, Mike Budenholzer (hired by Atlanta Hawks), David Fizdale, Alex Jensen, Dave Joerger, Mike Malone, Robert Pack, or Brian Shaw.

As you can see, I want to see the Bucks bottom out for the next few seasons to build a long-term contender for the next decade so the 14th (or 15th) coach in franchise history can reap the benefits.  Check back as the 2013 NBA Draft approaches to find out my specific thoughts on what the Bucks should do with the 15th and 43rd pick in the draft to start the rebuilding process.

2012-13 Milwaukee Bucks Final Rankings

The Bucks were 16-16 under Scott Skiles to open the season before they "mutually parted ways".  Assistant coach Jim Boylan took over as interim head coach for Skiles.  The Bucks started 8-3 under Boylan but floundered after that.

I gave Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond advice for how to improve the team at the trade deadline.  Unfortunately Hammond did not listen to my advice, instead he traded for J.J. Redick, which turned out to be a bunt singles instead of the home run that the Bucks needed.  In exchange for Redick, Gustavo Ayon, and Ish Smith the Bucks gave up:

(13, 12) Doron Lamb (20, SG, 6'4", 210 lbs, Kentucky, Rookie): Really thought he had a chance to be Right-handed Michael Redd 2.0.

(10, 7) Tobias Harris (#15, SF, 6'8", 226 lbs, Tennessee, 2nd NBA Season): I will always think of Harris as the guy the Bucks got instead of Kenneth Faried.  No question Faried will have a better NBA career than Harris but since leaving Milwaukee, Harris put up great numbers in Orlando.  Let's relax on Harris being a superstar though, don't forget he put up good numbers on the worst team in the NBA. Let's see Harris do this for a few seasons on a decent team before we start annointing him the next NBA superstar.

(6, 8) Beno Udrih (#19, PG/SG, 6'3", 203 lbs, Slovenia, 8th NBA Season): Thought the Bucks could have used this expiring contract more effectively.  Udrih is a free agent this off-season and would be the perfect combo guard to add if he will play for 25% of $7.4 million he earned last season.

After a hot start under Boylan, the Bucks went 14-25 the rest of the regular season.  I got to see the Bucks play the Thunder in a luxury box thanks to Mama Cheese.  The biggest highlight of the night was Cheesehead Chick singing Ice, Ice Baby verbatim along with Vanilla Ice.  Even worse, the Bucks only won four of their last 16 games to finish the regular season with a record of 38-44, which "earned" them the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

The "good news" is that the Bucks made the playoff for the first time in three season.  I say "good news" because the Bucks held their own for short periods of time against the Miami Heat but were swept by the Heat.  The Bucks lost those four games by a combined 59 points and none of them was closer than 11 points.

The sweep of the Bucks was the first time playoff sweep for Miami's "Big Three" (LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh) since they joined forces in 2010.  I look back fondly at Milwaukee's "Big Three" of Sam Cassell, Ray Allen, and Glen Robinson but they look like a Homeless Man's "Big Three" compared to Miami's current trio of superstars.  Add in that Allen is the fourth or fifth banana on the Heat's current roster and absent injury, the Heat are destined to win their second consecutive NBA Title this season.

By virtue of making the playoffs, the Bucks are out of the NBA Lottery while giving them the minimum amount of playoff experience possible, so it is really hard to call the 2012-13 season successful.  Here are my final rankings (mid-season and initial ranking in parenthesis) of the 15-man roster for the 2012-13 Milwaukee Bucks taking into account contract, age, position, and running in reverse order:

#15 (15, 13) Drew Gooden (#0, PF/C, 6'10", 236 lbs, Kansas, 11th NBA Season):
With 53 DNP-CD and 13 inactives this season, the Bucks need to amnesty Gooden this off-season, it is officially time to get #AmnestyGooden trending on Twitter.

#14 (14, 15) Joel Przybilla (#10, C, 7'1", 245 lbs, Minnesota, 13th NBA Season):

The Vanilla Gorilla was a glorified cheerleader this season, which is a nice way to earn a million dollars.

#13 (12, 6) Samuel Dalembert (#21, C, 6'11", 250 lbs, Seton Hall, 11th NBA Season):
With 33 DNP-CD and a couple of team suspensions, Dalembert went from the starting center to barely seeing the court in the playoffs.  In the ultimate f@%k you to Bucks fans, as the Bucks were getting clobbered by the Heat in the playoffs, Dalembert talked about signing with the Heat for next season.

#12 (11, 14) Marquis Daniels (#6, SG, 6'6", 200 lbs, Auburn, 10th NBA Season):

I know this feels low for a guy that had the 6th most starts on the entire roster but Daniels is set to become a free agent this off-season.  Daniels has an interesting skill sets because he does everything adequately but does not have one elite skill.  Since Daniels does everything pretty well, if he was signed for next season, he would be pushing to break the Top 8.  Although the Bucks took a bit of a leap of faith signing Daniels last off-season, I do not see him returning the favor and re-signing with the Bucks.  Instead I see Daniels signing a veteran minimum deal to be the third or fourth guy off the bench for a contender.

#11 (NR, NR) Ish Smith (#15, PG, 6'0", 175 lbs, Wake Forest, 3rd NBA Season):

A salary inclusion in what some are calling the Harris Heist unfortunately got some playing time in the playoffs where he embarrassed Boylan and himself with how poorly he played.  At merely 6-feet tall Smtih reminds me a healthy version of T.J. Ford, which is sort of a compliment, I guess.

#10 (NR, NR) Gustavo Ayon (#19, PF, 6'10", Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla, 2nd NBA Season):

Is a great example of one of my criticisms of PER.  Ayon averages four less minutes per game than Udoh while averaging about the same stat line but somehow has a better PER than Udoh.  May be this is not the perfect example, but PER has to do a better job of factoring in minutes played.

#9 (5, 4) Mike Dunleavy Jr. (#17, SG/SF, 6'9", 230 lbs, Duke, 11th NBA Season):

Finished second on the team in three point shooting percentage (42.8%) last season, which makes him a valuable commodity because despite being a below average defender, he has one elite skill (shooting).  Much like Daniels, if Dunleavy was under contract for next season he would finish at least a few spots higher because you know exactly what you are going to get from him.

#8 (NR, NR) J.J. Redick (#5, SG, 6'4", 190 lbs, Duke, 7th NBA Season):
Since the Bucks made the playoffs, Redick has participated in the playoffs every year since he joined the NBA (first six with the Orlando Magic and this year with the Bucks).  Redick is usually a quality three-point shooter but he shot the lowest percentage for his entire NBA career (31.8%) for the Bucks.  Redick is a free agent this off-season so I see him pulling a Gary Payton and moving on to greener pastures this off-season.

#7 (9, 11) Ekpe Udoh (#13, PF, 6'10", 245 lbs, Baylor, 3rd NBA Season):

This is contract over production because Dunleavy and Daniels were more valuable to the Bucks last season than Udoh but the Bucks have Udoh under contract for next season while Dunleavy and Daniels could be playing elsewhere.  Udoh was the 6th pick in the 2010 NBA Draft by the Golden State Warriors, one pick before Greg Monroe went 7th to the Detroit Pistons.  Monroe looks like a franchise center while Udoh looks like the third or fourth guy off the bench for a decent team so Udoh needs to make some big improvements this off-season, otherwise we might be looking at the next Drew Gooden.

#6 (7, 10) Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (#12, SF/PF, 6'8", 230 lbs, UCLA, 5th NBA Season):
The Prince has one great asset, the ability to defend almost any player in the NBA, but lacks any offensive game besides a decent low post move.  The Price should spend the entire off-season working on his mid-range jumpers and corner threes because if he could develop at least one of those skills, not only would he rival Scottie Williams for my favorite SF/PF in franchise history, but he could transform into the most versatile two-way player on the roster.

#5 (8, 5) John Henson (#31, PF/C, 6'11", 220 lbs, North Carolina, Rookie):
The longest wingspan on the roster would also put up the least reps on the bench press of anyone on the team.  Still Henson is hands down my favorite player on the roster because of his potential upside.  The two-time ACC Defensive Player of the Year showed flashes of his defensive prowess mixed with some questionable shot selection during his first season in the NBA.  If Henson can focus on adding 10 pounds of muscle in the off-season, any improvements he makes on the offensive end of the court is gravy.

#4 (4, 2) Monta Ellis (#11, PG, 6'3", 185 lbs, Lanier High School, 8th NBA Season):
The scouting report on Ellis has always been that he is a high volume shooter that doesn't play any defense.  There is no question that Ellis was a high volume shooter, last season he lead the team in field goal attempts and scoring en route to some impressive individual performances.  For instance, Ellis scored 25 points in the 4th quarter against the Magic on March 17, which is the most points scored by any player in a quarter this season in the NBA.  Ellis did average 19.2 points this season to finish 11th in the league in scoring but also lead the Bucks in turnovers as well.  For may be the first time in his career though, Ellis actually improved as a defender averaging 2.1 steals a game, which was 4th best in the league.

#3 (1, 1) Brandon Jennings (#3, PG, 6'1", 169 lbs, Oak Hill Academy, 4th NBA Season):
I like that Jennings is confident, but predicting that the Bucks would beat the Heat in six and then getting swept is not a good look.  In retrospect the Bucks erred in not getting Jennings to sign a Stephen Curry-esque four-year, $44 million extension last off-season because he will end up earning at least that this off-season if he decides to sign a long-term deal. Just one season later four-years for $44 million is way too little for Curry but feels just about what Jennings should make because Jennings was a borderline all-star for the first half of the season but struggled after the all-star break.  Lost in all the potential roster turmoil is the fact that Jennings lead the Bucks in assists (6.5) this season.  That shouldn't be high praise since Jennings was the starting point guard, but it shows that Jennings has the ability to be a traditional point guard despite the fact that I ultimately see Jennings being a Rich Man's Mo Williams.

#2 (3, 3) Ersan Ilyasova (#7, SF/PF, 6'10", 235 lbs, Turkey, 5th NBA Season):
Struggled under Skiles and thrived under Boylan.  Somehow Ilyasova still averaged a career beset 13.2 points and 7.1 rebounds.  This season Ilyasova shot 44.4% from long distance, which was 4th best in the league and the second year in a row that he finished in the Top 5 in three point shooting percentage.  Ilyasova is the personification of a stretch 4 and looks like a potential franchise players.  If Ilyasova can improve on the defensive end while continuing to knock down long-range shots.

#1 (2, 9) Larry Sanders (#8, PF/C, 6'11", 235 lbs, Virginia Commonwealth, 3rd NBA Season):
If Henson is my favorite Bucks player, then Sanders is a very close second.  In my initial rankings I said Sanders needed to "make the jump", which he did en route to leading the Bucks in PER (18.8), rebounds (9.5), and blocks (2.8) last season.  Although Sanders is a volatile player (14 technical fouls and five ejections), I honestly think it is because he is such a passionate player.  After game three of the Heat playoff series, Sanders and Ellis reportedly almost got into a fight because Sanders was challenging the team to focus on the playoffs instead of what was going to happen to the roster in the off-season.  That is the kind of leadership the Bucks nee on their roster.  Unless last season was an aberration, it looks like Sanders is a sure-fire franchise player for the next decade.

And with that we can thankfully but the 2012-13 Milwaukee Bucks in our rear view mirror and look towards the 2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks.  Check back Wednesday for my third annual off-season (2011 and 2012) advice for how Hammond should approach this potentially franchise altering off-season.