Building The 15 - Dellavedova, Henson and picks for Hill, Smith and a pick with Dekker almost becoming a Buck

Milwaukee Bucks general manager Jon Horst made a three team trade with the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Washington Wizards to basically free up cap space for this off-season at the expense a future first round draft pick.

The Bucks landed point guard George Hill from the Cavs, forward Jason Smith from the Wizards and a future second round draft pick from the Wizards.

The Wizards landed small forward Sam Dekker from the Cavs and a second round draft pick swap with the Cavs for one of their second round picks that the Cavs received in a previous trade.

The Cavs landed guard Matthew Dellavedova from the Bucks, power forward John Henson from the Bucks, a 2021 protected first round draft pick from the Bucks*, and a 2021 second round pick from the Bucks.

The Cavs landed a first round draft pick in name only because the odds that the they actually get a first round draft pick from the Bucks in 2021 are low since the Bucks still owe the Phoenix Suns a protected first round draft pick** from the trade that netted them point guard Eric Bledsoe.  That means that in all likelihood the Bucks will send the Suns their first round draft pick in the 2020 NBA Draft so that means the earliest the Cavs would get the first round draft pick they traded for today is 2022 thanks to the Stephian Rule, which prohibits NBA teams from trading away first round draft picks in consecutive drafts.

The only reason that Horst made this trade is that it will likely clear $18 million off their cap for the 2019-20 NBA season since Hill's contract is for $19 million for the 2019-20 NBA season but only $1 million of that is guaranteed so that means that there is a 99.9% chance that Horst cuts Hill this off-season to free up $18 million in cap space.  The Bucks will need to make that new found salary cap space go as far as possible because four of their five current starters are likely set to become free agents this off-season: Bledsoe (earns $15 million this season and is set to become an unrestricted free agent), guard Malcolm Brogdon (is still on a rookie second round contract and is set to become a restricted free agent), small forward Khris Middleton (holds a $13 million player option for the 2019-20 NBA season that he will most likely decline), and center Brook Lopez (signed for essentially the veteran minimum this season and is set to become an unrestricted free agent).

A ton can change between now and July but the Bucks will likely have to bring back all four players if they want to be competitive for the 2019-20 season since their drafts have been mostly underwhelming in recent years.  If Horst does that, it means that he will effectively be locking in the core of The 15 for the next couple seasons.  I am the highest on Middleton and Brogdon for slightly different reasons.  Middleton because he is the perfect 3-and-D player that compliments The Greek Freak, I honestly think Middleton will end up signing a contract worth ~$30 million annually that is coincidentally more per year than The Greek Freak will make through the 2020-21 NBA season.  Brogdon because he is a quality combo guard that worst case looks be the perfect second unit leader, I think he will end up signing a contract that averages $12 million annually this off-season.

That leaves Bledsoe and Lopez.  I am lukewarm on Bledsoe because he will be 29 years old next season and will look to almost double his annual salary this off-season, which seems too rich to me for a short point guard that is a streaky shooter and defender.  Lopez has completely re-invented his game the last couple years, transforming himself from a true back to the basket center into a stretch five that is shooting almost 40% from deep this season so I hope the Bucks can bring him back for a one-year contract for $7 million or less.

Back to the actual trade at hand, you might be wondering why this trade of a ton of injured players happened in early December.  It turns out that as long as the trade got done by close of business today (12/07/18) then all the players involved in the trade could be moved at the 2019 NBA trade deadline as well so there was clearly some urgency to getting this deal done.

Given that Horst had to attach a first and second round pick to move Dellavedova and Henson, he should have tried to move Tony Snell, a wanna be 3-and-D guy aka homeless man's Kris Middleton, instead of Dellavedova.  I am sure that the Cavs bulked at that because Snell's contract (three years and ~$34.2 million left with the last season a ~$12 million player option that he will no doubt pick-up since he would make so much less on the open market) is more onerous than Dellavedova's contract (two years and ~$19.2 million left) but I would have held the line, especially because if Henson can get back on the court this season then he actually transforms into a potential positive trade asset.

Finally let's not forget that former Bucks general manager John Hammond and Horst were both intimately involved in signing Dellavedova, Henson, and Snell to their contracts so let's settle down on giving Horst too many props for moving bad contracts that he helped hand those players.  Also creating cap space gives the Bucks owners a better chance of staying out of the luxury tax but if they balk at paying luxury tax bills, we have serious issues in Milwaukee given that the Bucks currently have one of the best players in the NBA in The Greek Freak and those same owners just got tax payers to pick up ~$250 million of the ~$550 million that it cost to build the new (horribly named) Fiserv Forum aka the Beer Barrel that opened this season.  I am not saying that every NBA team should pay the luxury tax but given the confluence of events just mentioned, Bucks ownership owes it to the team and the fan base to pay the luxury tax to fill out The 15, if necessary.

We will have plenty of time to breakdown in much more detail what Horst should do next with The 15 but notice that I haven't even made a single mention of the Bucks looking like they landed former Wisconsin Badgers standout Dekker or what Hill can actually give the Bucks this season.  The initial reports were that Dekker was going to the Bucks as a part of this deal but the Wizards jumped into the fray to help reduce their luxury tax burden by taking on Dekker with the Bucks getting a second round pick for taking on the more expensive Smith instead of Dekker.  I honestly see Hill as a poor man's, left-handed version of Bledsoe and Smith is effectively just a warm body.  I hope to be proven wrong but that doesn't give the Bucks much help on the court other than Hill being an instant offense guy off the bench given that he plays horrible defense, shoots less than 40% from deep for his career, and averages just over 11 points a game for his career.  There is no doubt that the next seven months will go a long way towards setting the trajectory of The 15 for the next seven years so make sure to check back in the coming weeks because I plan to break this down from a number of different angles.

* The protections by year are reportedly as follows: 1-14 for 2021, 1-10 for 2022, 1-10 and 25-30 for 2023, 1-8 for 2024, and converts to two second round picks in 2025 if it isn't conveyed earlier.

** The protections by year are reportedly as follows: 1-3 and 17-30 for 2019, 1-7 for 2020, and unprotected for 2021.

Building The 15 - (Another) Plea to Stand Pat at the 2017 NBA Trade Deadline

This is the 8th year (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016) that I've provided NBA Trade Deadline advice to Milwaukee Bucks (nominal) general manager John Hammond.  I used "(nominal)" because Jason Kidd's fingerprints are all over The 15 and the Bucks have their future GM in assistant GM Justin Zanik so while Hammond is still technically in charge, it is hard to determine whether he actually has final say on moves and I haven't even mentioned the trio of guys that bought the Bucks from Herb Kohl.

While the Bucks won their last three games going into the 2017 NBA All-Star break, they dropped seven of their last 11 games and literally limped into the All-Star break after Jabari Parker tore the same ACL for the second time in just three NBA seasons.  I'd like to think that my advice in this column would be the same if Parker were healthy but frankly it changes things slightly now that the Bucks have what looks like a reason to tank just once more before they open their new arena for the 2018-19 NBA season that I will forever refer to as The Beer Barrel.  I say what looks like a reason because the Bucks were struggling before Parker's injury but now they can semi-couch tanking as a result of losing Parker for 12 months.

The financial ramifications of Parker's serious knee injuries could be catastrophic for not only him but frankly the Bucks too.  After Parker missed most of his rookie season in the NBA due to tearing his left ACL in mid-December of 2014, he actually started his second season in the NBA healthy and put up pretty decent numbers given that he returned to the court in less than 12 months following a serious knee injury.  This season Parker's offensive game went to the next level averaging just a nick over 20 points a game while adding a three point shot to his offensive repertoire.  NBA players can sign extensions that start after their rookie contract following their third NBA season but given that Parker will miss more than half of his fourth NBA season recovering from a second tear to his left ACL, it will be hard for the Bucks to commit a max contract before next season because there is no way to know whether Parker will ever be the same player again.  I hate to be too fatalist about Parker's career given that he is still only 21 years old but midway through this season I thought there was a chance he would push for an All-Star appearance in the next couple seasons, now I (sadly) question whether he will ever make an All-Star team.

On a more positive note, the Bucks have two members of The 15 participating this weekend in some of the 2017 NBA All-Star Weekend festivities.  Rookie Malcom Brogdon aka Right Handed Michael Redd is playing in the NBA Rising Stars Game and The Greek Freak is participating in the NBA All-Star game to give the Bucks their first All-Star since the aforementioned Michael Redd played in the 2004 NBA All-Star Game in Los Angeles.

I will do my duty and post fake trades for Hammond/Kidd/Zanik/ownership but unless the Bucks are able to off-load another one of the crap contracts they signed this off-season, I would rather they just stand pat.  Realistically The Greek Freak is the only untouchable on The 15 but despite injury concerns for both, I would classify Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker as virtually untouchable so it would take a very special package to land Middleton or Parker.

As I've said many times in the past, I would hate to see the Bucks part with any future first round picks given that is really their only way of adding transcendent talent to The 15; see Freak, The Greek and Parker, Jabari.  I am even reticent to include a second round draft pick too because although the Bucks still have extra second round picks, given some of the crap contracts the Bucks currently have on The 15, I would much rather see them focus more on drafting and developing instead of overpaying on the free agent market.

NBA trades are mostly about shuffling around expensive contracts in hopes that a change of scenery turns one team's trash into another team's treasure, which is why I wrote an NBA General Manager Buyer's Remorse Day post a couple years ago.  With the 2017 NBA Trade Deadline (Thursday, February 23rd at 2:00 PM CST) rapidly approaching, here are my favorite somewhat plausible trades (least favorite to most favorite) that I put together for Hammond's review with an assist from ESPN's NBA Trade Machine that he could float to other general manager this weekend at the 2017 NBA All-Star Weekend in New Orleans:

#5) Bucks trade Jason Terry (G) to the Atlanta Hawks for a second round pick:

Terry recently said that he wants to play two more seasons in the NBA but not sure he will have that option.  Either way, this trade would bring things full circle for Terry by taking him back to where his NBA career started.  Not sure what Terry brings to the table at this point other than a strong locker room presence for a playoff bound team that might be able to occasionally give you a spark off the bench.  Of the five trades potential trades that I am going to float, I actually think this one has a realistic change of happening but barely registers on the sexy scale.  I see the Hawks looking to do something bigger than a deal like this to help their playoff push so I don't see this deal going down unless the Hawks strike out across the board with all other bigger deals and try to pull this one off right before the trade deadline.

#4) Bucks trade Matthew Dellavedova (G) to the Indiana Pacers for Jeff Teague (G):

Whenever a team is trying to pander to their star that could leave town, they inevitably overpay; see James, LeBron's first rodeo in Cleveland.  Indiana Pacers small forward Paul George can opt-out of his contract at the end of next season and he has yet to commit to the Pacers long-term so word is that the Pacers are willing to overpay to keep George happy.  I've admired Teague for a long time and given that he is an expiring contract, the Pacers get a worse player but more cost certainty in Dellavedova.  I love this deal for the Bucks and hate it for the Pacers so that is why it is the first one floated because Pacers president Larry Bird would be foolish to make this deal.  Then again, desperate times sometimes call for desperate measures.

#3) Bucks trade John Henson (PF/C) to the Phoenix Suns for Brandon Knight (PG):

I wanted to dangle Matthew Dellavedova instead of Henson but even though Knight has struggled this season so much that he is relegated to a reserve role, Dellavedova has had an even worse season so the Bucks need to part with a guy that seems to have a ton of promise but sadly doesn't deliver as much on the promise as much as he should.  I am talking about Henson but that last sentence describes Knight's tenure in Phoenix too so this seems like a perfect trade for both teams.  In hindsight there is no question that Hammond should have taken the Top 5 protected pick instead of MCW when he traded Knight to the Suns.  I see Henson and Knight as slightly distressed assets.  Given that the NBA has a glut of big-men and unless you can shoot a three you are becoming a dinosaur in the league, I would rather see the Bucks take a flier on Knight regaining his 2013 through 2015 form than hold onto Henson.

#2) Bucks trade Greg Monroe (C) and Jason Terry (G) to the Orlando Magic for Nikola Vucevic (C) and Mario Hezonja (SG):

I am obligated to float at least one Greg Monroe trade.  Initially I thought about Monroe to the Denver Nuggets for power forward Kenneth Faried.  I've long been a fan of the Manimal and it seems like the Nuggets are always looking to move him but don't think the potential of only a few months of Monroe is enough for Manimal even though Monroe has had a nice offensive resurgence this season after a disappointing first season in Milwaukee.  There are very few subpar GM's left in the NBA but thankfully Rob Hennigan is one of them and still in charge of the Magic.  Sure the Magic got the better end of the J.J. Redick/Tobias Harris deal but this is the same guy that in the last 12 months turned Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova, and Domantas Sabonis into a couple months of Serge Ibaka only to flip Ibaka to the Toronto Raptors for Terrence Ross and a late first round pick in the 2017 NBA Draft.  Pretty easy to say you'd rather have Oladipo/Sabonis than Ross/2017 late first rounder.  While Vucevic seems like the headliner of the deal for the Bucks given that he is a quality front court player, I actually still think Hezonja is a superstar in the making despite struggling so far in his NBA career.  While Monroe has developed into a quality offense first guy to bring off the bench at center, there is a chance that Hezonja develops into a starting shooting guard or worst case a heat check guy to bring off the bench in crunch time.  Given what I said earlier about the NBA having a glut of quality big guys and skewing towards shooting as many three as possible, I would much rather have an offense first shooting guard than an offense first center.

#1) Bucks trade Khris Middleton (SG/SF) and Jason Terry (PG/SG) to the Boston Celtics for Amir Johnson (C), Jaylen Brown (SF), and the Brooklyn Nets' 2018 first round pick:

I know this is going to make Celtics fans head explode because they always overvalue their guys but frankly the Celtics get more long-term cost certainty at the expensive of a couple super interesting lottery tickets in this deal, which is exactly what they need given all the potential flux that their roster is going to go through in the next 18 months.  Middleton is on a criminally team friendly NBA contract given that he is in the second year of a five-year, $70 million contract that actually pays him less each season starting next season.  The one caveat to that is Middleton owns a player option on the last season but if Middleton is playing so well that he is going to opt-out to sign a big money deal, better to have him plant some roots in Boston ahead of signing that extension.  While Middleton is not truly a superstar, he is a prototypical 3-and-D guy.  Besides having a Top 10 player on your team, the most valuable thing in the NBA right now is having as many 3-and-D guys as possible.  Speaking of 3-and-D guys, Brown is the wildcard.  Right now Brown is shooting 30% from three but take that with a grain of salt because he is a 20-year old NBA rookie.  Some thought the Celtics reached for Brown with the 3rd pick in the 2016 NBA Draft but there is a chance that he becomes one of the best defenders in the NBA in a couple seasons, which is the perfect guy to pair with The Greek Freak and Parker.  If Brown can develop a long-distance shot, the Celtics will be kicking themselves for trading him away but there is no guarantee that Brown can add that dimension to his game.  There is a chance that Tony Snell can give the Bucks 75% of Middleton's production at 75% of Middleton's price so that allows the Bucks to proactively push back their window of being a real Eastern Conference contender a season or two, which coincides perfectly with the opening of The Beer Barrel.  Finally, the Celtics have to cash in some of their draft picks because there are only 15 players allowed on NBA roster and it feels like they have 15 picks in the next three NBA Drafts.  Sure the 2018 Brooklyn Nets could be a Top 3 pick but a Middleton in the hand is definitely better than a Brown and a bird in the bush given that the Celtics are making a legitimate run at winning the Eastern conference this season.

If Hammond actually makes another move before the 2017 NBA Trade Deadline, which I am on records as hoping he doesn't, check back for full coverage in this space.  In the meantime, enjoy watching Right Handed Michael Redd and The Greek Freak in the 2017 NBA All-Star Weekend festivities in New Orleans.

Building The 15 - The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly 1.0 for 2015-16 Off-Season

It has been quite a busy off-season for Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond.  Given the young, high-end talent on The 15, I actually thought Hammond would have a ho-hum off-season where he resigned restricted shoot guard/small forward Khris Middleton to a large contract, uses both of his draft picks in the 2015 NBA Draft, and chased big name free agents but only ended up with one or two lesser names.  Boy was I wrong.

All told, Hammond moved out $12.15 million in salaries for next season when he traded power forward Ersan Ilyasova ($7.9 million) to the Detroit Pistons for the non-guaranteed expiring contracts of small forward Caron Butler ($4.5 million) and small forward/power forward Shawne Williams ($1.3 million) and small forward/power forward Jared Dudley ($4.25 million) to the Washington Wizards for a future second round draft pick.  Unfortunately the Bucks added $6.6 million on the night of the 2015 NBA Draft when Hammond traded his 2015 2nd round pick (46th overall) and the L.A. Clippers lottery protected 2017 first round pick to the Toronto Raptors for point guard Greivis Vasquez.  All of that was done to give the Bucks enough salary cap space to try to chase a big-name free agent but Hammond really only saved $5.55 million in salary for next season given Vasquez's expensive salary.  Honestly, I would have just kept Dudley, Ilyasova, and the draft picks they moved for Vasquez instead of trading for Vasquez. The only draft pick the Bucks had in the 2015 NBA Draft was the 17th pick, which they used to draft freshman shooting guard Rashad Vaughn.

Although the Bucks have too many players on The 15 right now, they have six potential free agents after this season: two restricted in power forward/center John Henson and center Miles Plumlee along with four unrestricted in point guard Jared Bayless, shooting guard O.J. Mayo, center Zaza Pachulia, and point guard Greivis Vasquez.  As a result, the Bucks could really use those draft picks, especially if they used one of them on a Euro-draft-and-stash guy.  It seemed that the salary cap space created was going to be all for not given that the Bucks never lure big-name free agents so Hammond signed shooting guard/small forward Khris Middleton to a five-year, $70 million contract, which is the exact same contract that former Buck combo guard Brandon Knight signed with the Phoenix Suns.

If Hammond was being honest with himself he had to try but he always knew that he was never going to be able to lure power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, center Marc Gasol, center DeAndre Jordan, or center Brook Lopez.  With all of that long build-up out of the way, I hope that everyone is sitting down because the Bucks actually lured a big-name free agent when they signed former Detroit Pistons center Greg Monroe to a three-year, $50 million contract.

You can checkout my rankings of The 15 in the sidebar below and although I've now essentially covered every transaction that Hammond made so far this off-season, I still think it makes sense to categorize each of those six moves in The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.  So without further adu, here are my thoughts:

The Good

The Middleton and Monroe contracts mean the Bucks potentially committed ~$21 million a year to those two players (Middleton averages $14 million and Monroe averages $16.67 million) for the next three seasons.  I say potentially as I mentioned above because the third year of Monroe's contract is a player option.  According to a SI.com's Will Law's advanced metric named "Free Agent Quotient, Monroe was the 8th most attractive free agent this off-season and projects as a "Bona fide All-Star" while Middleton was the 23rd most attractive free agent and projects to be an "Above -average starter.  While Law's metric is interesting, if that is NOT easy to wrap your mind around then may be ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton's three-year projections will help determine how much value the Bucks Middleton and Monroe: Monroe is "worth" $69 million and Middleton is "worth" $62 million so the Bucks extracted ~$40 million of surplus value out of those deals given they are on the hook for $91 million for both for the next three seasons.

The 15

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF/PF) 2. Jabari Parker (SF/PF) 3. Greg Monroe (PF/C) 4. Khris Middleton (SG/SF) 5. John Henson (PF/C) 6. Michael Carter-Williams (PG) 7. O.J. Mayo (SG) 8. Rashad Vaughn (SG) 9. Greivis Vasquez (PG) 10. Damien Inglis (SF) 11. Tyler Ennis (PG) 12. Zaza Pachulia (C) 13. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG) 14. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF) 15. Miles Plumlee (C) 16. Jorge Gutierrez (PG) 17. Shawne Williams (SF/PF) 18. Caron Butler (SF)

If Monroe struggles, I am sure that he will opt-in to the third year of his contract to get paid much like fellow former Georgetown Hoya center Roy Hibbert did this off-season.  If Monroe thrives, I could see him opting out to sign a mega-extension with the Bucks or another NBA team given that he will only be 27 years old and the salary cap is projected to be skyrocket over the next two seasons since it is projected to be $67 million this season, $90 million in 2016-17, and $108 million in 2017-18.  As crazy as it sounds, Monroe could potentially double his salary on his next contract extension.  Either way, the Bucks were deemed a more attractive option by Monroe than the L.A. Lakers and New York Knicks, which makes complete on-the-court sense.  Even more interesting than "outbidding" the Lakers and Knicks is what a perfect fit Monroe seems to be for the Bucks given his ability to score down low and grab rebounds, which are two things the Bucks desperately needed last season.  Sure Monroe is NOT a great defender but he is a long, willing defender.  With Monroe in the fold the Bucks project to have an impressive starting five of MCW at point guard, Middleton at shooting guard, The Greek Freak at small forward, Jabari Parker at power forward, and Monroe at center.  If Parker and Monroe struggle too much defensively, I could see the Bucks giving John Henson minutes alongside Monroe because both guys are quality rebounders and each guy's strength (scoring for Monroe and defense for Henson) off-sets each of their weaknesses (defense for Monroe and offense for Henson).

Assuming last season was NOT an aberration, Middleton's salary could be very palatable despite the fact that he will earn $14 million a year given that he is the prototypical 3-and-D player, which seems to be the most important NBA player type right now outside of all-around superstar.  If Middleton suffers a serious injury, the Bucks and Middleton will have a very uncomfortable five-year marriage but I would be really surprised if Middleton's contract year push last year is the ceiling of his performance so as long as he stays healthy, the Bucks will NOT regret the move.  Plus if you look around at the other 3-and-D free agents that signed deals this off-season, they signed similar contracts to Middleton: DeMarre Carroll signed a four-year, $60 million deal with the Toronto Raptors and Tobias Harris signed a four-year, $64 million contract with the Orlando Magic.  If Middleton continues to shoot 40% or better from behind the three-point arc, I could actually see him averaging 20 points a game at least once over the next couple seasons if the Bucks get quality play out of The Greek Freak, Jabari Parker, and Monroe because that would make Middleton one of the most lethal fourth bananas in the NBA.  Given that the salary cap is scheduled to almost double by the 2017-18 NBA season, there is a chance that Middleton's contract looks like the Bucks got him for the mid-level exception by the third season.

Switching gears, the more I noodle on the Vaughn pick, the more I am open to the upside of the decision despite the fact that FiveThirtyEight has Vaughn ranked as the 23rd best player in the 2015 NBA Draft and Pelton has Vaughn ranked as the 48th best player in the 2015 NBA Draft based on projected wins above replacement for his first five years in the NBA.  Vaughn is a long, skilled shooter and one of the youngest players in the 2015 NBA Draft.  Worst case scenario, I see Vaughn becoming a heat-check guy off the bench for the Bucks by his second or third season in the NBA.  Best case scenario, the Bucks drafted Ray Allen 2.0.  I see Vaughn settling somewhere in between but on the off-chance he fulfills his potential upside by his second or third NBA season, he could be the 7th best player on The 15.

The Bad

The Ilyasova trade seems like the kind of deal that would be on the table at the NBA Trade Deadline, which is why I question the motives for why Hammond made the move before the NBA Draft.  What is even more puzzling to me is how Hammond was NOT even able to snag a future second round pick from the Pistons as a part of the deal.  This trade looks even worse given that the Bucks added salary just a few days later in the Vasquez trade.

The Dudley trade will be felt more off the court than on the court.  Sure Dudley is a versatile player given that he can guard essentially every position on the court beside point guard and super tall centers but Dudley's real value came via his positive locker room presence.  We are just 18 months removed from Gary Neal and Larry Sanders getting in a fight in the locker room.  That is the kind of thing that would never happen in a locker room that included Dudley.  With Dudley no longer around, the four guys set to become unrestricted free agents (Bayless, Mayo, Pachulia, and Vasquez) after this season will be expected to be the veteran voices in the locker room too, which will make for an interesting locker room dynamic.

The Ugly

I almost put the Dudley trade in this category but given that the Vasquez trade is possibly the worst trade of Hammond's tenure, I wanted to make sure that The Ugly is reserved solely for that horrible trade.  The Bucks traded away Ilyasova and Dudley in separate deals but I like both of those guys more than Vasquez.  More importantly, I hate small market teams like the Bucks giving away lottery tickets aka draft picks.  Even late first round picks are valuable commodities for NBA teams because if they can land a rotational player, it gives NBA teams a super cheap commodity.

If the Bucks kept the 46th pick, they could have landed a useful player for next season (Norman Powell, Dakari Johnson, or Tyler Harvey) or a Euro-draft-and-stash guy (Arturas Gudaitis, Marcus Eriksson, Satnam Singh Bhamara, Nikola Radicevic, Dimitrios Agravanis, or Luka Mitrovic).  If the Bucks kept the L.A. Clippers lottery protected 2017 first round pick, they again would have a chance to add another cost-effective commodity to The 15.

I continue to lobby Hammond to leave a few spots open on The 15 so that he can either sign non-guaranteed deals to undrafted free agents or bottom-feed the free agent market.  In terms of bottom feeding, if Hammond had spots on The 15, look at the some of the cost-effective player he could have added: three-year, $18 million contract the Memphis Grizzles signed with power forward Brandan Wright; two-year, $10 million contract the Toronto Raptors signed with power forward Bismack Biyombo; four-year, $16 million contract the New York Knicks signed with center Kyle O'Quinn as a part of a sign-and-trade with the Orlando Magic; or four-year, $33 million contract the Sacramento Kings signed with power forward/center Kosta Koufos.  The most earth shattering thing about two of the deals just discussed are that the Knicks and Kings actually made a prudent free agent move after questionable moves earlier in the off-season.

Finally, backup point guards are a dime a dozen.  The Bucks cut Nate Wolters last season to add power forward Kenyon Martin, I hated that move at the time and despise it now because Martin was tits on a bull for the Bucks and if Wolters was still on The 15, Hammond might NOT have traded for Vasquez.  Leaving Wolters aside, you can add guys like Vasquez via free agency for much less than $6 million a year.  Last year the Bucks did just that when they signed Jerryd Bayless to a two-year, $6 million deal.  I didn't love that signing but at least it did NOT cost the Bucks two draft picks.  This off-season, the aforementioned Gary Neal signed a one-year, $2.1 million contract with the Washington Wizards.  The Bayless and Neal deals are two of many that are much better allocation of salary cap space than Vasquez for $6 million.

Unless Hammond makes a trade, The 15 is essentially set for next season.  On paper I would say the Bucks are much better off on the top-end of The 15 now then they were at the start of the off-season but only time will tell whether that translates to on-court performance.  Our first look will be summer league.  All eyes will be on "rookie" small forward Damien Inglis (missed all of last season due to injury) and actual rookie Vaughn.

Building The 15 - Ilyasova Trade and How to Handle Dudley & Middleton

I had my post in the can for how Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond should approach the players on The 15 from last season that have decision points that will impact whether they are on The 15 next season since there are only two players fit that description: shooting guard/small forward Khris Middleton is a restricted free agent and small forward/power forward Jared Dudley has a player option for next season.  Hammond threw a little but of a wrench in that when he traded power forward Ersan Ilyasova aka the Poor Man's Dirk to the Detroit Pistons for small forward Caron Bulter and small forward Shawne Williams.  Before I discuss how to handle Middleton and Dudley, let's clean-up the Ilyasova trade.

This was a salary dump that gives the Bucks essentially useless salary cap space that I hope they sit on unless they can somehow lure a top-end free agent.  I don't want to step on my free agency preview for Hammond that I plan to post early next week too much but unless the Bucks can attract a potential NBA All-Star (think DeAndre Jordan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Monroe, etc.) then I say sit on the sidelines for free agency because the last thing the Bucks need to do is overpay mediocre players to fill spots on The 15 given all the upcoming money they will presumably need to commit to Middleton, The Greek Freak, Jabari Parker, and possibly MCW.  The salary cap space is most likely useless given that mega NBA stars never sign with the Bucks as free agents unless they already play in Milwaukee (think Big Dog, Ray Allen, and Michael Redd).

In terms of the actual players involved, I still think Ilyasova is a Poor Man's Dirk so given that he is scheduled to earn $7.9 million this season and has what amounts to a team option for next season since only $400,000 of his $8.4 million contract is guaranteed, I would have much rather just kept Ilyasova, especially because the Bucks couldn't even beat a future second round pick out of the Pistons in this deal.  Bulter had a cup of stale coffee with the Bucks that lasted 34 games in the 2013-14 season before being waived, which was NOT what Butler expected to happen given that his presence on The 15 for the Bucks that season was being dubbed as a coming home party for the Racine native.  Don't get any grand illusions about Butler rectifying that in his second go round given that the Bucks will waive him before July 1st to get rid of his $4.5 million non-guaranteed salary for next season.  The Bucks can hold tight on Shawne Williams for now because his $1.4 million salary does NOT have a July 1st guaranteed date so he might be a useful, cheap bench guy depending on what happens in the 2015 NBA Draft and free agency.

With my analysis of the Ilyasova salary dump trade out of the way, let's turn to Middleton and Dudley.  The easier case is Dudley because he holds the cards since it is a $4.25 million early termination option so there is NOT much advice I can give Hammond other than to entice Dudley to NOT exercise his early termination option.  Dudley was clearly a useful locker room presence last season and occasionally provided some on-court production given that he can play and defend any position on the floor besides point guard. If Dudley opts out, my guess is that he would do that just to add a couple years at roughly the same average salary per season to his deal but it only takes one irrational team to inflate Dudley's market value.  There is no way that Dudley ever signs another mega-deal but given that the salary cap is going to skyrocket in a couple seasons, I could see a borderline playoff team overpaying Dudley.  Although I like Dudley, the Bucks should NOT get in a bidding war if he exercises his early termination option because next off-season they have a ton of potential free agents so The 15 could go through a pretty drastic makeover in the next 18 months.  Dudley would be a nice person to help smooth over the changes to The 15 but NOT if that price is over $5 million per season.  Let's see if Dudley actually terminates his contract.  If he does, the ceiling I would go on Dudley is three-years, $15 million.

That leaves the most interesting decision for Hammond this off-season, which is how to handle Middleton.  If I am Middleton's agent, I don't want to overplay my hand too much because Bill Simmons sadly formerly of Grantland.com coined the phrase "a market max player".  Feel free to read his entire take but basically it means that since the salary cap is going to skyrocket the next few seasons, there are guys that are NOT max guys that will get paid like max guys because a few years from now that contract will look reasonable given the jump in the NBA's salary structure cap thanks to the influx of cash from their new television deal.  If Middleton is willing to sign for $10 million a year or less, make the deal and move on.  If Middleton is actually holding out as "a market max player" then the decision is much more nuanced.

I assume that Middleton will be looking for between $12 and $15 million per year so let's break this down a little more.  Middleton has only played three NBA seasons but his PER has gone up each season: 11.43 in 2012-13, 12.55 in 2013-14, and 15.70 in 2014-15.  Middleton looks like the perfect 3-and-D given his body-type (6'7" and 225 lbs) and three-point shooting ability (above 40% shooter for his career).  With all the good news out the way, there are two caveats to making Middleton "a market max player".  One, I question if this year-over-year improvement is sustainable for Middleton long-term.  Two, with all the guys the Bucks might have to pay in the future, it might make sense to move Middleton for future draft picks and expiring contracts.  Given that the Bucks have such a hard time attracting free agents, I would sign Middleton to a long-term contract as long as it does NOT exceed $15 million per season.

Make sure to check back tomorrow for the start of my 2015 NBA Draft preview when I given Hammond names of guys that he should reasonably target with the 46th pick in the 2nd round of the 2015 NBA Draft.

The 15 - Even Without Parker the Bucks Continue to Win

In my first two iterations of The 15 this year I was much more bullish on the 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks than most.  At the start of the season I deemed them a playoff worthy team and I did NOT back down from that in my next look at the team I just hedged by saying that I wanted to see the Bucks beat some better teams before we made them a playoff lock.  Since that post it has been the best of times and the worst of times for the Bucks all in one month.  The worst of times was December 15, 2014 but NOT for the reasons that I mentioned in my inaugural NBA General Manager's Buyers Remorse Day post.  Instead that day rookie small forward Jabari Parker tore his ACL to end his promising rookie season in a road win over the Phoenix Suns thanks to a crazy bank shot by shooting guard/small forward Khris Middleton.  The Bucks could have packed it in for the season but they showed some heart going 4-4 over their next games to finish the calendar year 2014 with a 17-16 record, which is two more wins then they had all last season.  Here are my updated rankings to The 15:

2) Jabari Parker (SF/PF, LR 2): When Bucks general manager John Hammond drafted Parker with the second pick in the 2014 NBA Draft it seemed like the ultimate no-lose pick.  If the 1st pick in the draft Andrew Wiggins turns out to be a stud that is NOT on Hammond given that Wiggins and Parker were the consensus top two picks in the draft.  My hope is that this is NOT a Marvin Williams situation where it turns out that some of the guys taken after Parker (Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart, etc.) show that there should have been more thought about whether there were other guys worth going in the Top 2 of the draft.  When Parker got hurt he was second on the Bucks in points per game (12.3) and minutes (29.5) but that should not be a surprise since he looked like an NBA-ready scorer during his freshman season at Duke.  What was a pleasant surprise is that Parker was at least serviceable on defense, which is much more than the Bucks thought they were getting in Parker's rookie year given how much he struggled defensively during his lone college season.  I wish Parker a speedy recovery and safe recovery.  No need to rush Parker back form such a serious injury.  I would rather have Parker sit out the first part of the 2015-16 season on the off-chance that it helps him not only decrease the chances of him suffering another catastrophic knee injury but it also allows him to come back at full-speed instead of playing 20 games at 75% to start the season because the Bucks need to look at Parker as a 15 year asset even if he decides to leave after five years.  If you question that theory, ask the Chicago Bulls how they feel about Derrick Rose re-injuring his knee a second time.

The 15 3.0 for 2014-15

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 1) 2. Jabari Parker (SF/PF, LR 2) 3. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 3) 4. John Henson (PF/C, LR 4) 5. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 5) 6. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 7) 7. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 9) 8. Jared Dudley (SG/SF, LR 8) 9. Larry Sanders (C, LR 6) 10. Kendall Marshall (PG, LR 10) 11. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 13) 12. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG, LR 12) 13. Nate Wolters (PG, LR 11) 14. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF, LR 14) 15. Damien Inglis (SF, LR 15)

9) Larry Sanders (C, LR 6): The Bucks have been without Sanders's services for the last four games due to "illness".  I put that in quotes because Larry Sanders is entering the Tyson Zone (copyright Bill Simmons).  We know that off the court Sanders enjoys fighting and smoking pot.  I am not judging, in fact I think one of those two things should be legal.  Unfortunately for Sanders he plays in a league where neither are legal and there are consequences for both so it will be interesting to see if he ever plays for the Bucks again.  In my my first look at The 15 this season I said this season was going to be a crossroads for Sanders and clearly he is getting to the end of the road.  At this point I am not sure the Bucks could trade him for anything so I might have him ranked too high at 9 but whenever I try to move him further down I get flashes of him turning into a more offensively polished Ben Wallace and pound my head against the keyboard in disappointment at how wrong things have gone for Sanders over the last couple seasons.

11) Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 13): It takes a big man to admit mistakes and I might finally be coming around on Pachulia.  Don't get me wrong, I still stand by my assertion that he is overpaid and was one of the worst moves two off-seasons ago.  I am not sure how much Gustavo Ayon signed for with Real Madrid but I know it is less than Pachulia is making.  So far this doesn't sound like much of a mea culpa but I am getting there.  Certain positions in professional sports are more expensive to fill than you think they should be.  Take backup catcher, because of service time alone most backup catchers make upwards of $1 million a year for catching every 5th day.  That seems like way too much money for their contributions on the field but that doesn't take into account all the intangible things they are doing with the starting catcher and pitchers when they are not in the game.  The same might be true for backup centers too.  I don't think Hammond ever thought Pachulia would be the de facto starting center given how highly (great pun huh) they thought of Sanders but even given all of the issues with Sanders off the court but Pachulia has been very effective in that role.  It turns out that skill set costs a few million more on the open market than I thought but it is has been indispensable for the Bucks this season.

I hope everyone is having a good start to 2015.  Make sure to check back at the end of January for my thoughts on The 15, which will form the basis for my annual NBA Trade Deadline advice post for Hammond in mid-February.

The 15 - Forever Young...May You Stay...Forever Young

Sorry it has been almost a month since my last post about the 2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks but things have been crazy for the Green Bay Packers and Manchester City, which has precluded me from posting more about the underwhelming Bucks.  Later today we will know whether the Packers beat the Chicago Bears on the road, which will determine whether the Packers or Bears win the NFC North and host a home playoff game.  Since I am doing everything in my power to distract myself until kickoff of the Packers/Bears game, I decided to post something about the Bucks as a nice reprieve for Cheesehead sports fans.

The Bucks are 1-5 in overtime games so far this season.  Losing that many games in overtime can be chalked up to two different things: inability to make clutch shots or lack of depth.  Given their injury issues, I would chalk it up to lack of depth.  Following their home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, the Bucks are currently 6-24 ahead of their three game road trip out West (Lakers, Jazz, and Suns), which usually means three loses.

The Bucks have a very good chance to lose the most games in franchise history, which was set in the 1993-94 season when head coach Mike Dunleavy lead the Bucks to a 20-62 record.  The Buck suffered a myriad of injuries to almost everyone on The 15 so far this season so even though they did not want to tank this year per owner Herb Kohl's mandate, the Bucks currently have the worst record in the league and it looks like things will only get worse to close out 2013 and start 2014 on their three game West coast road trip.

Earlier this month Kohl held a press conference to say he wants to broaden ownership as a means to keep the Bucks in Milwaukee long-term.  Kohl was a United States Senator from Wisconsin from January 4, 1989 to January 3, 2013 and has owned the Bucks since 1985.  Some thought once Kohl retired from the Senate that he would have more time to focus on the Bucks and the push to get a new arena built in Milwaukee.  I am not against Kohl and his new investors building a new arena in Milwaukee as long as the tax payers of the state of Wisconsin do not have to pay for the new arena.  Presumably any new owners that Kohl would add would have deep pockets, which would allow them to foot the bill for a new arena.  If Kohl and his new investors expect the tax payers to foot the bill, I am fine with the Bucks becoming the new version of the Seattle SuperSonics.

One quick piece of advice for small market NBA general managers before we get to my updated rankings of The 15.  Small market NBA general managers are inherently at a disadvantage because even if they have cap space, they are unable to attract big-time free agents so they need to change how they approach putting together The 15 by giving themselves more roster flexibility.  Following the 2013 NBA Draft, Bucks general manager John Hammond made some questionable moves that essentially handcuffed any roster flexibility on The 15 given that Hammond filled The 15 with guaranteed contracts.  The problem with that approach is that when The 15 goes through a rash of injuries like the Bucks have to start the 2013-14 NBA season, there is no way to bring in short-term help since everyone on The 15 has a guaranteed contract.  That means Hammond cannot cut anyone without fairly significant financial ramifications but if he left a spot or two open on The 15 he could have added undrafted rookie free agents on a rotating basis where warm bodies are needed to fill out the rotation.

With than unfortunate introduction that pretty much shows you how depressing things have been for the Bucks so far this season out of the way, here are my updated thoughts on The 15:

The 15

1. John Henson (PF/C, LR 1) 2. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 3) 3. Larry Sanders (C, LR 7) 4. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 6) 5. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 8) 6. Gary Neal (SG, LR 4) 7. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 2) 8. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 5) 9. Caron Butler (SF, LR 9) 10. Nate Wolters (PG, LR 10) 11. Miroslav Raduljica (C, LR 14) 12. Ekpe Udoh (PF, LR 13) 13. Luke Ridnour (PG, LR 12) 14. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 11) 15. Carlos Delfino (SG/SF, LR 15)

2) Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 3): Bucks head coach Larry Drew is finally starting The Greek Freak, unfortunately it took a bunch of injuries to force Drew to play the most exciting player on The 15. Why do I love The Greek Freak?  Check out his drive past Kevin Garnett for an easy dunk as one of many examples from his young NBA career.  The Greek Freak was listed at 6'9" before the 2013 NBA Draft and apparently has the growth plates of a 16-year old so he already grew an inch and a half in the last six months.  Given that The Greek Freak is currently the youngest player in the NBA, there is a good chance that he will end-up growing another inch and a half to be a 7-footer with ball handling and shooting skills of a guard to go along with the defense and rebounding skills of a forward.  The Greek Freak is also making other players on the court better.  Case and point, starting point Brandon Knight doubled his scoring, rebounding, and assists since The Greek Freak joined the starting lineup. Am I excited for The Greek Freak's potential upside?  Let's have Marv Albert give my response.

5) Khris Middleton (SF, LR 8): Before the season I said that I had very low expectations for Middleton.  Most of that was due to the fact that Middleton was projected as a borderline lottery pick in the 2012 NBA Draft going into his junior season at Texas A&M.  Unfortunately Middleton struggled due to a knee injury and a coaching change but still decided to come out early.  The Detroit Pistons drafted Middleton 39th overall and buried him on the bench throughout his rookie season.  After joining the Bucks this off-season in the Jennings for Knight et al. trade, the team committed to giving Middleton regular minutes so he already appeared for the Bucks more times this season than he did for the Pistons all last season.  Early results are positive as Middleton is the only player to appear in every game for the Bucks this season and is fourth on the team in PER with 14.4.

11) Miroslav Raduljica (C, LR 14): With centers Zaza Pachulia and Larry Sanders out for extended periods of time so far this season, Drew was essentially forced to play Raduljica and he has responded well so far.  Raduljica is currently second on the team in PER with 19.1.  Take that with a grain of salt thought because Raduljica is only averaging 10 minutes per game in 17 appearances (2 starts).  I look at backup centers like backup catchers in baseball, they are necessary but you should never overpay for them.  Injuries aside, the Bucks clearly overpaid Pachulia when they signed him to a three-year, $15.6 million deal.  The Bucks properly paid Raduljica when they signed him to a three-year, $4.5 million deal. I am not saying that Raduljica is better than Pachulia right now but for a team that has no legitimate playoff aspirations, it make much more sense to pay Raduljica $1.5 million than Pachulia $5.2 million to play backup center.

Given how much the Bucks have struggled this season, the only thing to look forward to is the NBA Trade Deadline on Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 2 pm CST.  The Bucks really only have two untouchable players on The 15: John Henson and The Greek Freak.  Besides those guys, Hammond should make everyone else available even if it hurts the Bucks immensely in the short-term in the hopes of building a long-term winner.  I will do my best to work ESPN's NBA Trade Machine to construct a number of ridiculous trades for Hammond that will never happen but are fun to discuss.