2024 Green Bay Packers Offseason Plan

The Green Bay Packers fell to the San Francisco 49ers yet again in the playoffs over the weekend.  I truly thought the Packers were going to win until Packers rookie kicker Anders Carlson missed a 41 field goal with roughly six minutes left in the game that would have put the Packers up a touchdown.  If you are going to read this post then you know what happened so let's move onto an off-season plan to help the young, feisty Packers be even better in 2024.  I am going to use the categories that ESPN came up with for their offseason guide for each team but gave my own thoughts for Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst.

Biggest offseason priority: The easy answer to say is to fix their special teams woes given that Carlson missed 13 kicks (field goals and extra points) this season including playoffs.  During the Packers/49ers game, Fox sideline reporter Tom Rinaldi relayed a truly horrible nugget that Packers head coach Matt LaFleur just pray every time that Carlson trots onto the field to attempt a kick, which is about as critical as I've ever heard LaFleur be of one of his players and likely said in jest since LaFleur is such a players first coach.  There is some debate about whether the kicking issues are on the long snapper, the kicker or whether both should shoulder some of the blame.  Either way, Carlson is likely the place kicker for the Packers in 2024 even though he shouldn't be based on how he kicked in 2023.  With that special teams preamble out of the way, I think the biggest offseason thing to figure out is whether the Packers have their offensive tackles of the future on the roster in Rasheed Walker (played left tackle this season) and Zach Tom (played right tackle this season) or whether they need to use a high draft pick on an offensive tackle.  There is no way the Packers rely on left tackle David Bakhtiari given his injury history.  Bakhtiari's contract means he is likely on The 53 in 2024 unless Gutekunst can get the New York Jets to pony up for Bakhtiari.  While it seems outlandish, almost all the players Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (still feels odd to type that) "asked" the Jets to sign won't be on their roster next year so Bakhtiari could be the literal and figurative security blanket for Rodgers given how shaky the Jets offensive line is right now.  When Tom went out with a concussion against the 49ers, the offensive line didn't look as stout with Yosh Nijman at right tackle.  Add in that Nijman is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent and the Packers might as well let him go in free agency and take the compensatory pick that they get in the 2025 NFL Draft that will be held in Green Bay.  The Packers are set at left guard with Elgton Jenkins, besides that, every position is far from set so I could honestly see Tom playing left tackle, center, right guard or right tackle for the Packers in 2024.  The Packers look to have a quality option at right guard or possibly even right tackle in Sean Rhyan already on the roster so I'd say the Packers do one of two things knowing that they will draft a few offensive lineman at some point in the 2024 NFL Draft.  One, keep Walker at left tackle and Tom at right tackle so only use late round draft picks on developmental offensive tackles.  Two, if there is a potential starting tackle available at the end of the first round then draft that player, move Tom to center in place of Josh Myers and sort out where to slot that rookie in along the offensive line.

Under-the-radar offseason priority: Running back with secondary nipping at running back's heels.  Truth be told, secondary might be an even bigger priority than offensive tackle or running back given how much turnover I expect there to be but let's put a pin in that for right now.  The Packers have to bring running back Aaron Jones back because Jones is a truly an elite running back when healthy.  The when healthy part is the biggest issue with Jones and that is even before talking about his $17.5 million cap hit in the last year of his contract that he carries if he is on The 53 for the 2024 season.  No matter what, Jones will carry a Larry Sanders-esque (shout out to former Milwaukee Buck and the NBA for allowing teams to stretch their bad financial decisions out over a number of years) hit on the Packers salary cap through the 2027 season ($6.6 million in 2025, $4.1 million in 2026, and $1.7 million in 2027) even though 2024 is technically the last year of his contract because of some accounting tricks that the Packers used to resign Jones after the 2020 NFL season.  After the stretch run that Jones put up, there is no reason that he should take a pay cut.  My heart says that I wish Jones would take a pay cut but my head says don't do it since I could see another team talking themselves into paying Jones a bunch of money for a two or three year contract given that Jones is still only 29 years old.  I know 30 years old seems to be the line of demarcation in the NFL but Jones has less tread on his tires than a workhouse 30 year old running back.  Oddly this season Jones being injured through most of the middle of the season allowed him to be healthy for the stretch run for the first time in a while and he strung together five games in a row rushing for at least 100 yards each game to close the season.  Leaving aside the raw production, the Packers offense is so much more in sync with Jones in the lineup.  Backup running back A.J. Dillion is set to be a free agent, while Dillion seems like a nice person, the Packers should let Dillon focus on being the mayor of Door Country given his lack of explosiveness and how injured he was to end the season.  The Packers have Emanuel Wilson (exclusive rights free agent so can bring him back for 2024 on the cheap) and Patrick Taylor (unrestricted free agent that they likely could being back on the cheap) to round out the running back room for 2023.  All to say, I'd approach Jones about taking a pay cut knowing that it is highly unlikely that he will so look for the Packers to use a day two draft pick (either second or third round) on their running back of the future in the upcoming NFL Draft.

Latest on whether they will re-sign safety Darnell Savage: There is no doubt that Savage has not lived up to what the Packers expected he would be when they took him with the 21st pick in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft.  When talking about under-the-radar offseason priorities, I said the secondary as opposed to just safety because three of the other four safeties on the roster (Jonathan Owens, Rudy Ford, and Zayne Anderson) are set to be free agents and their cornerback position is equally unsettled as well.  Savage is under contract with the Packers for $5.5 million for 2024 and it is fully guaranteed so I assume that means Savage will be on the roster in 2024, the bummer is that Savage has a longtail on the Packers salary cap counting $1.4 million each year from 2025 through 2028 even if he is not on The 53.  I assume that the Packers bring back a couple of the other safeties on one year deals with Anderson the most likely since he is a restricted free agent and Owens also likely because he might take another veteran minimum deal to play in Green Bay if the Packers allow him to go to Paris to root on his better half, gymnast Simone Biles at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris.  No matter what, none of those five safeties seem like foundational franchise pieces so the Packers will have to continue to look to replace the ghost of Nick Collins so look for Gutekunst to use a day one or day two pick on that position as well as a day three flyer on a height/weight/speed prospect too.  Flipping to cornerback, assuming that cornerback Jaire Alexander comes back (he is under contract but clearly has been a malcontent, which lead to him getting suspended for a must win game against the Minnesota Vikings), the Packers still might need to fill at least one starting cornerback position given that their slot corner Keisean Nixon and their 4th cornerback on the depth chart Corey Ballentine are both scheduled to be unrestricted free agents.  On the (mostly) positive side of the coin, the Packers have what looks like another Alexander in the making (I mean that both positively and negatively) in rookie Carrington Valentine.  On the negative side of the coin, the Packers can't expect anything from oft injured Eric Stokes, a guy the Packers drafted with the 29th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.  That's all to say, for what feels like the 100th draft in a row, the Packers are likely using their first round draft pick on a defensive player and likely either a cornerback or a safety.

Draft outlook: The Packers hold five draft picks in the top 100 draft picks in the upcoming draft: the 25th (their own first round pick), 41st (the Jets second round draft pick from the Aaron Rodgers trade), 58th (their own second round draft pick), 88th (their own third round draft pick), and 91st (the Bills third round draft pick from the Rasul Douglas trade).  It is borderline silly to look at the mock drafts right now since we don't have any true measurables on prospects.  I think the smarter exercise is to think about positions that the Packers need to strengthen.  The Detroit Lions were panned for how they handled the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft given that they took Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th pick and Iowa inside linebacker Jack Campbell with the 18th pick because running back and inside linebacker are not considered premium positions worthy of using a couple high draft picks on but both of those players have been instrumental in helping the Lions win the NFC North and get to the NFC Championship Game.  Gutekunst is a best player available guy but given that the Packers have glaring needs in the secondary, look for the Packers to spend early draft capital at that position and sprinkle in a running back, an offensive lineman, a defensive lineman and a pass rusher.  I know I listed almost every position but honestly for the first time in a long time the Packers look set at wide receiver and tight end, which not only sets up Love and the franchise well but must drive Rodgers crazy.

Big prediction for the offseason: Gutekunst will actually use the draft capital they amassed via the Rodgers and Douglas trades to move up in the draft.  How and what they do is truly anyone's guess but I oddly think the Packers impressive late season run puts even more urgency on Gutekunst to make this team even more in a win now mode than before given that there are a number of younger players on the offensive side of the ball on rookie contracts that are going to get mega paid in the coming years.

For those that stuck around this long, thank you.  I am running back my S.M.A.R.T. goals for 2024 with some pretty significant modifications so check back here on February 1st for more details on that.

My Goodbye to Aaron Rodgers

Depending on how you slice it, Cheesehead sport fans have been on Aaron Rodgers Watch for days, weeks or months.  As the resident Aaron Rodgers apologist with my Cheesehead sports buddies, even I am ready for Rodgers to go to the "New York" Jets.  I have become the annoying salary cap guy on the text thread we have rolling with my Cheesehead sports buddies.  I say that because despite everything that has gone down, I'd actually take Rodgers back for 2023 if the salary cap implications weren't so bad for the Green Bay Packers.  For those that don't obsess over the NFL salary cap, if Rodgers retires or the Packers trade him this off-season, the Packers will have to deal with a ~$40 million dead cap charge.  If the Packers bring back Rodgers for 2023 and then Rodgers retires or the Packers trade him next offseason, the Packers have to deal with a ~$60 million dead cap charge.  If the Packers bring Rodgers back for 2023 and 2024 then the Packers have a ~$70 million dead cap charge to contend with after the 2024 season.  Sure the Packers can spread that cap charge over two years if they move on from Rodgers after June 1st this offseason, next offseason or the offseason after that but realistically the only way that is happening is if Rodgers reties because no team wants to add Rodgers that late in the offseason

I said this in my last blog post on February 1st that if I had to bet, it is more likely that Rodgers gets traded to another team this offseason with the Jets the most likely team to keep this Favre reincarnation simulation going and the Las Vegas Raiders a close second so that Rodgers can reunite with wide receiver Davante Adams than Rodgers plays for them Packers in 2023 but no matter what, I think Rodgers will play football in 2023.  That was before Rodgers went on his darkness retreat, which as a sidebar I commend Rodgers for doing because I sadly can't be away from my cell phone for a family dinner with my wife and kids let alone in the dark for four days with just me and my thoughts.  My wife and golf buddies would argue that I treat golf trips like darkness retreats and to some extent that is actually true.  I unplug, talk with (more accurately at) my playing partners and take in the golf course.  Those golf trips truly do help keep me centered since life is stressful dealing with the demands of work and family.  In any case, Rodgers recorded a podcast with Aubrey Marcus after this darkness retreat and that affirmed what I thought about Rodgers wanting to play football.  Look for all the drama surrounding Rodgers each offseason about whether he is going to play football the following season, there is no doubt that Rodgers played through pretty serious injuries throughout his career.  So I get wanting to take some time, the part I don't like is that Rodgers us doing it to have the spotlight on him.

Anyhow, the more I learned about the contract that the Packers signed Rodgers to last offseason, the more enraged I became about it.  I honestly think it was organizational malpractice by the Packers.  I had a chance chat with Mark Murphy, the president of the Packers, last summer (his daughter lives in the same neighborhood that I do in Chicago) where we chatted for ~15 minutes.  No jive, it was one of my highlights of 2022 because I love the Packers that much.  I almost asked Murphy about the Rodgers contract but seemed out of bounds given the situation.  Plus, it would have guaranteed that Murphy wouldn't send me a return letter like he did in the fall of 2022 after I sent Murphy a note a few weeks before that, which again was another highlight of 2022.  I know, I have problems.

Following the 2021 season, Rodgers was coming off back-to-back NFL MVP seasons so there was almost no way that Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst, executive vice president/director of football operations Russ Ball and Murphy could turn to backup quarterback Jordan Love.  It is easy to look at what the Seattle Seahawks got for Russell Wilson and wish the Packers got that that but it is hard to do that if you are Gutekunst, Ball and Murphy.  In retrospect it looks like a no brainer but that is not what it looked like at the time.  Conversely, the only way this offseason worked out is if the Packers won the Super Bowl.  Sure, the Packers were one of the favorites heading into the 2022 NFL season but only one of 32 teams wins the Super Bowl.  The salary cap albatross that Tom Brady left behind with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is about the same size as the one that Rodgers will likely leave behind with the Packers when he presumably heads to the Jets later today.  That dead salary cap charge is much easier to swallow when you have a Super Bowl to show for it like Brady and the Buccaneers do, which is something the Packers and Rodgers do not have to soften the blow of the dead salary cap charge.

Some of my Chicago golf buddies and my good buddy Spliff that I grew up with inside The Cheddar Curtain went to the Packers/Detroit Lions game at Lambeau Field, which was the last regular season game of the 2022 NFL season.  Moose, Spliff and I were the only true Packer fan while Peg (long story) and ETM (Esteban the Magnificent) were rooting for the Packers because they are our good friends.  Having been at the Packers/San Francisco 49ers playoff game loss last year in the Packers luxury box thanks to my buddy Fernando, I honestly thought Rodgers was coming back to the Packers for 2022 but I did not feel that way after the Packers loss to the Lions to end last season.  Fernando also took me to Favre's last game as a member of the Packers when they lost in the NFC Championship Game to the New York Giants at Lambeau.  I say that not as a humblebrag of attending a ton of Packer season ending loses but because the loss to the Lions to end last season felt like sawn song for Rodgers in Green Bay much like the Packers/Giants felt like a sawn song for Favre.  So odd that Favre and Rodgers both likely ended their careers as a Packer with a loss thanks to a back breaking interception at Lambeau Field.  Given that Favre was turnover prone throughout his career, it felt very fitting for him but Rodgers really never was so it felt like an odd way for him to likely go out that way.  I mention those specific games because the Packers have been relevant my entire sports rooting life but they've truly had some tough season ending loses as a result. As my buddy Uncle Patty aka Dirty Nasty likes to say, the sweet ain't as sweet unless you taste the sour.  Sadly it has been much more sour than sweet lately.  Yet for some odd reason, if the salary cap implications were different, I'd still take Rodgers back for 2023.

No matter what, today truly feels like a true end of an era.  I visited my college buddies in New Jersey last weekend for an unofficial college reunion that was one of the best weekends that I've had in a long time.  I was prepared for Rodgers to get traded to the Jets while I was in New Jersey and as an only child that thinks the world revolves around me, I thought it would be perfect that I was in New Jersey for the first time in years when Rodgers got traded to the Jets.  I had prepared myself for that possibility and frankly even a few years ago it might have ruined my weekend but I was almost welcomed it to happen especially since I was in New Jersey.  My guess is that later today Rodgers goes on Pat McAfee's show and announces that he intends to play for the Jets in 2023.  A few days too late for this only child but given that is the case, it is now Jordan Love time in Green Bay.

Trust me, it is much more likely that Love is Brett Hundley than Brett Favre but it truly is time to turn the page.  I am honestly not looking forward to the stories that come out in the coming weeks/months about how hard it was to deal with Rodgers because honestly that no longer matters.  The sport romantic in me wishes Rodgers won another Super Bowl last season for the Packers and road off into the sunset as arguably the greatest Packers of all-time but that didn't happen.  The fact that didn't happen is also why fans simultaneously love and hate sports.  The beauty of rooting for The People's Team is that hope always seems to spring eternal.  I worry that Love will get way more scrutiny than he should since he is trying to become the third franchise quarterback in a row but again that is what makes sports so intoxicating.  Maybe it is because I've spent more money than I should for my kids and I to be part owners of the Packers, I mean this blog post alone tells you that my priorities are out of whack, but trust me that the minute I hear a "Go Pack Go" chant the next time that I am at Lambeau, I will root hard for whoever is under center.

A Wrap on 2020 & Preview of 2021

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead by quarterback Tom Brady (will never feel right to type that) not only became the first team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium but they also beat the Kansas City Chiefs to put a bow on the 2020 NFL season.  With a less than entertaining Super Bowl LV in books, we can thankfully put a wrap on the 2020 NFL season and look towards 2021.

Going into the 2020 NFL season if you told me that the Green Bay Packers would not only get back to the NFC Championship Game for the second year in a row but even host the game this year, I would have said that the season shaped up to be a resounding success since the Packers looked like a strong candidate to regress in 2020 after getting blown out in the 2019 NFC Championship game on the road against the San Francisco 49ers.

Given that the Packers finished the 2020 regular season 13-3 thanks to a win over the Chicago Bears on the road in Week 17 (more on that game later) and locked up the top seed in the NFC, all of a sudden hosting the NFC Championship Game felt like the absolute floor for what would be acceptable.  The NFL added a 7th playoff team so despite losing to the Packers, the Bears still got into the playoffs because the Arizona Cardinals couldn't beat the Los Angles Rams on the road.  Since the NFL added a 7th playoff team to each conference that also meant that only one team got a bye in the first round of the playoffs in each conference as opposed to two teams.  In the divisional round the Packers dispatched the Los Angeles Rams to host Brady and the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship Game.  All four previous NFC Championship Games that Rodgers was the starting quarterback for the Packers were played on the road so this was the first time that Rodgers was the starting quarterback for the Packers in an NFC Championship Game at home all be it with a much smaller home crowd due to COVID-19 restrictions.

It is almost too painful to relive that game at this point since the Packers lost to the Buccaneers in a game that they really should have won.  I know that sounds like sour grapes but man did the Packers pick some inopportune times to commit some complete brain farts (how do they give up a touchdown to end the first half?) and failed to convert on any of the three 2nd half interceptions by Brady to finish the season with a record of 14-4 and two of those four losses were to the Buccaneers.  The Packers are now 1-4 in NFC Championship Games with Rodgers as their starting quarterback: one win over the Chicago Bears 21-14 at Soldier Field, two loses were total blowouts (44-21 to the Atlanta Falcons in 2016 and 37-20 to the San Francisco 49ers in 2019) and two losses were total heartbreakers (28-22 to the Seattle Seahawks in overtime in 2014 and this year 31-26 to the Buccaneers).  It honestly stings to get that close to the Super Bowl so many times with Rodgers as the starting quarterback for the Packers but only have one Super Bowl appearance to show for it so let me see if I can mix in at least a personal silver lining that I am sure happened to thousands of other Packers fans this season too.

I like to get to at least one Packers game in-person a year since I live in Chicago and watch a handful with friends but that was not possible this year due to COVID-19.  As a result, I watched every Packer game on the couch this season with my wife Katie, ~6.5 year old son Aaron and ~3.5 year old daughter Audrey.  Sure winning games helps but I honestly have to say this might have been my favorite Packer season of my lifetime.  My son Aaron was absolutely locked in on the Packers all season.  So much so that Aaron has watched the Packers/Bears game from Week 17 almost every day for the last month.  While I am bummed that the Buccaneers as opposed to the Packers represented the NFC in Super Bowl LV, I will still look back fondly at the 2020 NFL season because it gave us a nice thing to take our minds off the fact that we are living through a global pandemic.  Plus, part of being a fan of a team of a team is to enjoy the ups and the downs, which we got to do together.  I don't want to (have to) force my kids to be Packers fans but I know that Aaron and Audrey will be Packer fans for life so I still consider this season a success.

With that, I thought I'd give some thoughts on where things stand right now got the Packers.  While the defense continues to be a mixed bag (already changed defensive coordinators this off-season), there were true signs of growth on the offensive side of the ball as Rodgers won his third NFL MVP but honestly that all feels a bit hollow since it is now 10 years since Rodgers and the Packers won Super Bowl XLV over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Jerry World.  That said, the Packers organization is at a bit of a crossroads because absent injury Rodgers will be their quarterback in 2021 but there are some lingering questions about whether that will be the case in 2022 given that Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst traded up four spots in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft to draft Utah State quarterback Jordan Love.  I wrote about the Rodgers/Love situation before the 2020 NFL season season started and have given it even more thought since then.  Despite having no inside information, I honestly think I have a handle not only on how/why it went down that way based on my reading of the tea leaves but how to proceed in the coming years.

Going into the 2020 NFL Draft, I truly believe that Gutekunst not only questioned whether Rodgers could get along with head coach Matt LaFleur but also whether Rodgers could perform as he had in the early-to-mid 2010's.  As a result, the Packers did a ton of due diligence (as they should for every draft honestly) on the quarterbacks in the 2020 NFL Draft with an eye for coming up with a succession plan to replace Rodgers sooner than almost everyone outside the Packer organization would expect.  As I said right after the 2020 NFL Draft and I still maintain now, I have no clue whether Love will ever turn out to be a good NFL quarterback but that is missing the point of this whole exercise.

Starting as far back as 2014, it started to feel like the Packers were only going to go as far as Rodgers would take them given how stale the offense got under former Packer head coach and (somehow) current Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy.  I am not breaking any news to say that having a very good quarterback is essentially required to win in the NFL playoffs at this point (looking at you Bears fans) but part of the genius of LaFleur's offense compared to McCarthy's offense is that players seems to get open based on the scheme as opposed to just talent alone.  As a result, I think that allows a serviceable quarterback like Rodgers to get results in LaFleur's scheme and a generational quarterback to take it to the next level.

The Love pick is a sunk cost so the Packers need to think about the best way to move forward and as crazy as it is to say, I think that is to bring Rodgers into the already messy decision making hierarchy at the top of the football side of the Packer organization.  Players like Rodgers and Brett Favre are bigger than the organization.  In the case of Rodgers (and to a lesser extent Favre), while money is a sign of showing how much you care about them, he already has a nine figure net worth so you need to come up with another way to "compensate" Rodgers.  Heck the Packers tried to give Favre a $20 million "services" contract to keep him retired but still a part of the organization when they transitioned from Favre to Rodgers as their starting quarterback so the organization knows there is value to keeping their stars happy by any means necessary.

Back to the actual organizational hierarchy.  Mark Murphy is the president and chief executive officer of the Packers so while Murphy has a board of directors that he has to answer to, the buck stops with Murphy.  Arguably Murphy's biggest decision of his tenure was who would replace long time general manager Ted Thompson (RIP) back in 2018.  Ultimately Murphy decided to hire Gutekunst, which meant that he didn't give the job to a couple of other internal candidates that interviewed for the position: Russ Ball and Elliot Wolf.  There was no way that Murphy could find a way to give the general manager job to Gutekunst but still retain Ball and Wolf so Murphy got creative.

Wolf left to work in the front office of the Cleveland Browns as assistant general manager under another former Packer front office executive John Dorsey, neither Dorsey (currently a senior personnel executive for the Detroit Lions) or Wolf (currently a front office consultant to the New England Patriots) are with the Browns anymore so while I appreciate what Wolf's father Ron did for the Packers (Favre would have never played for Packers without Wolf), the jury is still out on Elliot.

Murphy elevated Ball from his position as vice president of football administration/player finance to executive vice president/director of football operations and set things up on the football side of the organization so Gutekunst, Ball and the head coach all report directly to Murphy.  Different professional organizations have different reporting structures but the most common is that the head coach reports to the general manager and the general manager reports to the president.  When Murphy hired Gutekunst as general manager, McCarthy's status with the organization was shaky at best but the Packers still kept McCarthy on as head coach for most of the 2018 season.  I know it seems like I am taking unnecessary shot here but if f I were Murphy, I would have fired McCarthy after the Packers lost the NFC Championship Game to the Seahawks in January of 2015.  Instead, McCarthy remained head coach of the Packers until early December of 2018 when he was fired following a super embarrassing 20-17 home loss to the then 3-9 Arizona Cardinals.

I also know this seems silly to break this down so much but like or hate Rodgers, he (at least) seems to be a super intelligent person.  Heck Rodgers won in his only appearance on Celebrity Jeopardy and is scheduled to be one of the guest hosts of the show (RIP Alex Trebek) in 2021 as well.  I say Rodgers at least seems to be a super intelligent person because everything that he says has a purpose for him.  After the loss to the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship Game this season, people interpreted Rodgers' comments as opening the door to him leaving the Packers but I actually saw it as an opening to keep him a Packer for the rest of his career.  What Rodgers was trying to covey was his angst over the uncertainty not only of where he stands in the eyes of the organization but also where things stand for a number of his teammates.  As I said earlier, Rodgers just wants a seat at the table so given that Murphy already opened that with having Gutekunst, Ball and LaFleur report directly to him on football decisions, why not add a 5th chair?

I say that especially because the player empowerment era has gone into hyperdrive the last couple years in professional sports, especially in the NBA.  It has gotten to the point in the NBA that if a player has enough status in the league and says they want off their current team (totally their right to ask for) they can essentially force their current NBA team to trade them to their preferred team.  The contract structures and salary cap ramifications of the NBA are much different than the NFL but as you saw this off-season already, the Los Angeles Rams wanted to move on from quarterback Jared Goff even before the mega contract extension that he signed with the team kicked in so the Rams are going to have a bunch of dead money on their salary cap because they traded Goff along with a bunch of draft picks to the Detroit Lions for quarterback Matthew Stafford.  That is all to say that NFL players are going to follow the lead of NBA players and even point to the Rams as a way you can move on from onerous contracts (think Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz) so the Packers might as well get out ahead of it with Rodgers.

Plus as Brady clearly showed last night, the shelf life for NFL quarterbacks is longer than we knew even five years ago.  So much so that I think the only real franchise altering blunder that you can put at the feet of New England Patriots head coach/general manager Bill Belichick, arguably the most successful NFL coach in NFL history, is that Belichick misread the Brady situation three or four years ago because he thought that Brady wouldn't be able to play effectively into his 40's and clearly Belichick was wrong about that.  Rodgers is 37 years old and I honestly could see him playing into his early-to-mid 40's so the Packers need to do whatever they can in their power to make that a reality.  I get it, I am writing this from a fan's perspective so people will write this off as a (borderline) silly idea but locking down Rodgers for another give years means the Packers and Rodgers could realistically compete at a high level in the NFL for that entire time.  Sure injuries could derail that but I really do think the Packers need to set-up the franchise to thrive around Rodgers both on and off the field.  If it doesn't work on the field with Rodgers they are going to need to replace Rodgers anyhow so might as well go the extra mile in the hopes that it does work.  Sure people might worry this is setting a bad precedent but organizations need to stop resting on how they've traditionally done things, which ironically is what Murphy did in 2018 when he changed the reporting structure to all go through him.  Again, Murphy already has three people on the football side report to him so that is why I am advocating for a four person to have a chair at that table. I get it, that might create some tension in the locker room, but it could also help alleviate some tension too and it is clearly worth the risk at this point.

I honestly didn't think I was going to spend that much time breaking down how to keep Rodgers a Packer long-term in this post but here we are and I wanted to knock out one other thing with this post so I want to transition to where (I think) I am going to take this blog in 2021.  I made a personal commitment to write (at least) 12 blog posts in 2021 as a part of my 2021 S.M.A.R.T. goals.  For those not familiar with S.M.A.R.T. Goals, it stands for Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time bound goals.  The idea to set S.M.A.R.T. Goals was inspired by my supper witty buddy Chandler Goodman (aka Shebow) that I met via NewClub Golf Society.  There is no way that I will be able to have an annual write-up anywhere as enjoyable as Chandler's annual write-ups (2017, 2018, 2019 & 2020) but it did inspire me to at least try.

While some of my blog posts might actually be Cheesehead sports related, what I really would like to do is make them more personal about my journey to live more intentionally than reactionary, which is the whole point of most of the S.M.A.R.T. Goals that I set for myself in 2021.  Don't get me wrong, as a person that works in a support role at a law firm and has two young children, I understand that fire drills will come up that I need to react to on a daily basis but my hope is to continue to be proactive in how I handle things in my personal life so look for posts in the coming months on what I am thinking about and working on.  While this might turn some people off, I want to start challenging myself (and hopefully other) to improve in various facets of my life.  I actually purposely waited to post this until sometime in early February because by then the excitement of New Years Resolutions have worn off so while I want to challenge myself, I want them to be long-term improvements (more intentional) as opposed to short-term modifications (less reactionary) because "quick fixes" just results in me abandoning them.  Sure, I would love to wave a magic wand and lose 15 pounds (one of my other S.M.A.R.T. Goals for 2021) but in developing better habits (e.g. eating better and working out more efficiently), there is a much better chance that I sustain a healthy body weight over a longer period of time instead of just losing the weight and putting it right back on.  While I have ideas for where I want this to go, I really would like to get some feedback so please connect with me because while this is mostly a selfish endeavor, I want this to be something that others find useful too as opposed to just screaming into the void.

Building The 53 - Love and Rodgers

As I traded text messages with my 'Sconi buddies about the post-season essentially ending with a whimper for the Milwaukee Bucks as we endured an absolutely painful and borderline embarrassing 4th quarter where the Bucks scored just 13 points en route to going down 3-0 to the Miami Heat in their second round bubble playoff match-up, my buddy UP suggested that I start posting in this space again and that he might even occasionally drop a guest post so here I am again posting about 'Sconi sports.  Still to be determined how much I end up posting and what exactly I post about but does feel good to start blogging again so gonna try to ride the lightning as long as I can.

Given that the 2020 NFL regular season is (somehow) just around the corner, we can mop up what the Bucks need to do very simply, keep The Greek Freak in Milwaukee but do not follow the model that the Cleveland Cavaliers used to appease LeBron James, instead build an actual NBA roster around their superstar.  There in no doubt in my mind that the Bucks should have kept Malcolm Brogdon and paid the luxury tax instead of doing a sign-and-trade with the Indiana Pacers that ended up netting the Bucks the 24th pick in the 2020 NBA Draft but we can't undo that now and there will be plenty of time to deal with how to fix the Bucks in the coming weeks.

As a result, it seems like posting something about the Green Bay Packers is the way go so I will leave breaking down The 53 (tons of surprising cuts to be sure) and the practice squad (expanded this year to help deal with the people on The 53 that will inevitable test positive for COVID-19) to others, instead let's go back to the 1st round of the 2020 NFL Draft to see how it set the stage for the next five years for the franchise.  Like millions of other sports starved people, a bunch of buddies and I "watched the draft together" on Zoom.  When the Packers traded up in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, it was clear that I was a few seconds ahead of everyone else on the Zoom hangout so I tried to hide my reaction as the group caught up to me.  As we all know by now, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst traded the 30th and the 136th picks in the 2020 NFL Draft to move up four spots to the 26th pick to draft Utah State quarterback Jordan Love.  Less than six months later, none of us really know how Love is going to turn out as a professional.  From a process standpoint, it didn't make a ton of sense then given that the Packers signed Rodgers to a four-year, $134 million contract ($57.5 million signing bonus and $98.7 guaranteed) in August of 2018 that is scheduled to run through the 2023 NFL season.  The Packers would take on ~$31.5 million in dead cap space if they moved on from Rodgers after this season (could put ~$14.3 on their 2021 cap and ~$17.2 million on their 2022 cap if they designated it as a post-June 1st move) and ~$17.2 million in dead cap space if they moved on from Rodgers after next season (could put ~$14.4 million on their 2022 cap and ~$2.8 million on their 20212 cap if they designated it as a post-June 1st move).

Honestly if the Packers made that same decision in 2021 or 2022, I couldn't blame them but just given the cap situation with Rodgers alone, I question the move even though I know quarterback is such an important position and understand taking the best player on the board usually works out given that is how Rodgers made it to Green Bay.  Add in that there were inside linebackers (Jordyn Brooks from Texas Tech or Patrick Queen from LSU), an offensive tackle (Isaiah Wilson from Georgia) and wide receivers (Tee Higgins from Clemson or Michael Pittman Jr. from USC) that went just a few picks after the Packers traded up to take Love, I would much rather the Packers draft one of those players instead of trading up to draft Love.  Trust me, I can't with a straight face say that I know which one of the guys that went just a few picks after Love will be better than him long term, I just know any of them give the Packers a better chance to succeed in 2020 than Love.  That doesn't even factor in that the Packers could have scooped another low cost player at the end of the 4th round with the other pick they traded to move up in the first round to draft Love.  I know the NFL Draft is essentially an educated dart throwing contest given that there are tons of players that went late in the draft or undrafted that will likely go on to have a better NFL careers then some of the players taken in the first round (my friends would argue that middling is generous).  Much like I am a high volume joke teller with a middling success rate, the NFL Draft is the same thing, having more picks just gives you more chances to strike lightning in a bottle.

I've read the various analyses of Rodgers drop in play since as early as 2015 according to Ben Baldwin of The Athletic (SOURCE) or a couple years later due to his broken collarbone in 2017 or his knee injury in 2018 or somewhere in between because the offense got stale in recent years under former Packers head coach Mike McCarthy.  Let me just put my cards on the table, I am an unabashed Rodgers apologist.  Heck, my son's name is Aaron so you can take all of this with a grain of salt but there is no doubt that the Packers are worse as a team in 2020 with Love on the roster instead of an inside linebackers, offensive tackle or wide receiver.  I get it, the Packers don't draft players for just this season but watching quarterbacks recently drafted in the first round like Josh Rosen get cut in recent days, shows you that picking quarterbacks even in the first round is essentially a crap-shoot too.

I turn 40 next summer (yikes) so for almost my entire life as a Packer fan, they have had remarkable stability at the quarterback position thanks to Brett Favre and Rodgers.  I obviously hope the Packer somehow pulled off a three-peat at quarterback with Love but I just can't get over that the Packers essentially painted themselves into a corner.  Part of the benefit of rookie contracts are that they are "cheap" in NFL terms so if you can get an starting NFL quarterback on a rookie contract (think Russell Wilson when he first played for the Seattle Seahawks as the ultimate example) then you have a ton of money that would normally be allocated to the quarterback to spend on other positions (think Legion of Boom for the Seattle Seahawks) but the Packers will likely not get the benefit of that because absent a couple injuries, Love is currently 3rd on the quarterback depth chart behind Rodgers and Tim Boyle.  That means that Love will most likely not play until 2022 at the earliest so the Packers would likely only get two years of Love on a rookie contract while they are dealing with the salary cap issues associated with showing Rodgers the door so they don't even get the cheap rookie contract bump to help them allocate resources elsewhere on The 53.

The 2020 NFL Draft mirrored life with the kids of NFL coaches and general managers jumping around in the background as their parents tried to work.  That day, in their heart of hearts, coaches and general managers didn't know for sure but had to know it was very likely that they wouldn't get anywhere close to a "traditional off-season" so expecting a rookie quarterback to come in and contribute almost anything in 2020 was going to be a big ask, which means they had to know Love was likely nothing more than a 3rd string quarterback for the 2020 season.  By that same logic, you could argue that a middle linebackers, offensive tackle or wide receiver would similarly have trouble contributing in 2020 but there is a big difference between quarterback and any other position in football.

Instead of adding a wide receiver to The 53 in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Packers continued to remake their offense by adding a bruising running back in A.J. Dillon and tight end in Josiah Deguara.  There is no doubt that the Packers are trying to change the focal point of their offense under head coach Matt LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett into being a run first attack in the mold of the San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans.  The glass half full view of that is that metamorphosis could actually allow the Packers and Rodgers to thrive by not having to carry the entire offense with his arm.  The glass half empty view is that Rodgers will become frustrated and petulant, which will lead to him checking out of run plays to pass plays to piss off coaches and management.  Like everything, it will likely be somewhere in between, especially given the odd circumstance every walk of life has been dealt by COVID-19 in 2020, the question is whether we are closer to the glass half full or glass half empty metamorphosis.  Only time will tell but given the unrest on the right side of the offensive line (long-time right tackle Bryan Bulaga left via free agency and they are currently dealing with some injuries to his replacement) and the fact that the Packers outperformed their expected win total for 2019 but failed to add useful pieces on offense, I sadly tend to think it will be more of a glass half empty metamorphosis.  I can't end this post post on a completely negative note so while the Packers lack superstar depth, they do have superstars at quarterback (Rodgers), wide receiver (Davante Adams) and running back (Aaron Jones) so the hope is that they can help build on 2019 to be even better in 2020.

There is an outside chance that the Packers simultaneously added their quarterback of the future in Love while lighting a fire under Rodgers arse to bookend his career in Green Bay with a 2nd Super Bowl.  It is much more than likely that Love never plays a meaningful snap for the Packers and his presence leads Rodgers to leave Green Bay under bad terms but without a long term answer at quarterback.  More likely than not, Love takes over for Rogers in 2022 and the Packers get pennies on the dollar for Rodgers to go along with a messed up cap situation.  No matter what, management for the Packers took the hard road by drafting Love so I hope that I am wrong and the Packers pull off the three-peat.  Either way, fingers crossed that we can as safely as possible have NFL football back in our lives for the rest of 2020.

Building The 53 - How to Handle the 2019 Free Agents

The Green Bay Packers' season effectively ended before we even got to December thanks to a lifeless 24 to 17 loss on the road to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football.  In case you missed my post following the Packers' previous loss on the road to the Seattle Seahawks, I am not a fan of Packers head coach Mike McCarthy.  There is no doubt that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is at fault as well for this marriage going wrong but the Packers have a ton more invested long-term financially in Rodgers than McCarthy so now it really is time to move on from McCarthy.  Sure the Packers are dealing with a ton of injuries and I understand that it might be viewed as a classless move to fire McCarthy in-season, especially given that the Packers are essentially eliminated from playoff contention, but there are three reasons why I would do it now.  One, there is no way that you can bring McCarthy back to coach the Packers next season unless they somehow miraculously win it all so let's get a jump on it already.  Two, Rodgers' body language and play looked worse each of the last two weeks so it would be nice to start fresh with someone else in charge in hopes that it allows Rodgers to right the ship the last few weeks of this season to take some positive momentum going into the off-season.  Finally, (most) Packers fans are not stupid so they will see keeping McCarthy in charge as punting on the rest of the season (look at ticket prices on the secondary market) so moving on now gives fans at least a glimmer of hope too.

Speaking of the off-season, with the post-season very unlikely this season, it is time to take a look at what business Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst should get done to set the Packers up better for 2019 and beyond.  The Packers currently have a little under $10 million in salary cap space for the rest of the 2018 season and they project to have a little more than $38 million in salary cap space for 2019 given that 20 players are set to become some form of a free agent following the 2018 season: 11 unrestricted*, two restricted**, and seven exclusive rights***.  That gives Gutekunst almost $50 million to play with if he decides to roll all of his 2018 salary cap space into 2019.

The seven exclusive rights free agents are no brainers to bring back for a one-year qualifying offer to be a part of the 90-man off-season roster.  The real question is whether Gutekunst should look to sign any of them to a long-term extension to get them at a more reasonable long-term price if one of them has a breakout season in 2019.  There are a couple guys that look like they have the potential to be future NFL starters but it seems much better to bring each of them back at essentially the cheapest one-year NFL contract available to see how they perform in 2019 than to try to guess among those seven players where the cream is going to rise to the top.

The Packers have two restricted free agents, wide receiver Geronimo Allison and safety Kentrell Brice.  The Packers can negotiate a long-term deal with either player but typically NFL teams tender restricted free agents one of three one-year contracts: a first round tender for ~$4 million, a second round tender for ~$2.75 million, and ~$1.8 million for their original round.  Another NFL team can sign a player tendered a one-year contract to a longer term contract, which would allow Gutekunst to match that contract or receive compensation based on the tender that they signed.  Both Allison and Brice are at least worth keeping around for 2019 but both are undrafted players so the Packers wouldn't get any draft pick compensation for them unless they placed the first or second round tender on them and even the "original round" tender feels rich for either of those guys so I would approach both about coming back for less than the lowest tender on a one-year, veteran minimum prove-it deal.

Of the 11 unrestricted free agents, there are a couple pretty simple decisions so let's knock those out first.  There are two guys on the defensive side of the ball in defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson and cornerback Davon House on the wrong side of 30 that are coming off serious season ending injuries so I would just let them walk.  On the offensive side of the ball I would let tight end Mercedes Lewis, tight end Lance Kendricks, and offensive lineman Byron Bell walk too.  I considered the veteran minimum for Bell but honestly think the Packers just need to get younger at that spot.  While we are talking about veteran minimums, I would be fine giving linebacker Korey Toomer and safety Ibraheim Campbell each one-year veteran minimum deals essentially as flyers since we haven't seen enough from them this season to see if having them in the fold for the off-season will give them a chance to actually contribute on the field in 2019.  Worst case, you can cut Toomer and Campbell before the start of the 2019 season without incur any significant salary cap hit.

That leaves four unrestricted free agents that are a little trickier so it involves a little more analysis.  Of those four, the most interesting one to me is cornerback Bashaud Breeland given that this off-season he had a three-year, $24 million contract with the Carolina Panthers nullified for a freakish heel injury.  The Packers added Breeland at the end of September when they put House on injured reserve.  It took until early November for Breeland to actually see the field and so far Breeland has shown flashes of what made him an eight million dollar a year cornerback.  It feels like taking the easy way out to take a wait-and-see approach with Breeland but that is the only option at this point given his past/current injury issues.  If Breeland can get healthy to finish out 2018, I would be more than open to bringing him back in 2019 if he shows anything down the stretch in 2018.

Unfortunately for linebacker Jake Ryan, he will be coming off a serious knee injury just as he enters free agency following the expiration of his rookie contract.  Ryan tore his ACL in training camp so the only silver linking is that it gave him a few extra months to rehab his knee.  A two-year, $4 million contract with some decent sized per game roster bonuses included in the deal is the most you can offer Ryan given that he is coming off a serious knee injury and plays inside linebacker so you can't afford to overpay him, especially with decent starter and back-up options already under contract for 2019.

Absent a career threatening injury, we aren't going to learn anything new about wide receiver Randall Cobb and outside linebacker Clay Matthews that we didn't already know.  Honestly when I went to the Packers/Giants playoff game in 2017, I thought that was going to be Cobb's last game as a Packers but he turned in a playoff performance for the ages that included catching a Hail Rodgers to end the first half.  Given that the Packers are likely not going to the playoffs this year, we don't have to worry about that happening again for either (really trying for the reverse jinx here).  The Packers have a ton of young, interesting options at wide receiver given that two of their three rookie wide receivers look like future NFL starters.  That said, once the Packers finally replace head coach Mike McCarthy, I see Cobb as a versatile weapon that when healthy can be used as a punt returner, slot receiver, and even a halfback in a pinch.  A three-year, $18 million contract that is front-end loaded with $8 million guaranteed seems fair to being Cobb back for a couple more years.  Plus, Cobb is buddies with Rodgers so I think having a couple veterans is the least that you can do to keep Rodgers happy and able to run some of sandlot plays for big gains each game.

I saved the biggest name, Matthews, for last.  Matthews is on the wrong side of 30 and his impact continues to drop each season so I say let him walk unless he wants to sign a one-year contract for the veteran minimum.  Sure it seems more complicated than that and offering Matthews such a paltry deal for next season seems like a slap in the face given that he is making ~$11.4 million this season but I view Matthews this off-season much like I viewed wide receiver Jordy Nelson last off-season.  The Packers reportedly offered Nelson a one-year contract for the veteran minimum, which Nelson balked at so he signed a two-year, $14.2 million contract with the Oakland Raiders that pays him ~$7.4 million this season and the Raiders owe him nothing for 2019 if they cut him before March of 2019.  I would rather move on a year too early than a year too late, which proved to be the correct decision with Nelson given that over nine games this season he has only caught 25 passes for 353 yards and three touchdowns.  Matthews is having a similarly underwhelming season this year with 30 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and 1 forced fumble.

I wish the Packers had a bunch of pass rushers waiting in the wings behind Matthews but it looks like the Packers might be replacing both of their starting outside linebackers this off-season because outside linebacker Nick Perry was recently placed on injured reserve with a knee injury amidst having an underwhelming 2018 season.  In a contract year in 2016, Perry finally fulfilled all the promise that made him a first round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft when he posted 11 sacks that netted him a five-year, $59 million contract that contained a $18.5 million signing bonus.  Perry had a pretty good season in 2017 playing the run well and posting seven sacks but as I just mentioned, 2018 saw Perry's performance fall off a cliff given that he only registered 1.5 sacks in nine games before going on injured reserve.  Perry will have a $14.7 million cap hit for the 2019 season, which seems super rich for an under performing guy coming off a serious injury.  Plus Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine uses players in unique ways dropping defensive lineman and rush linebackers into coverage so I see guys like Matthews and Perry being less valuable, especially with cheaper options available like Kyler Fackrell, Reggie Gilbert, a high 2019 NFL draft pick, and a cost-effective 2019 free agent.

If the Packers designate Perry as a pre-June 1st release they carry $11.1 million of dead money on their 2019 salary cap but save $3.6 million in cap space in 2019.  If the Packers designate Perry as a post-June 1st release they carry $3.7 million of dead money on their 2019 salary cap and $7.4 million of dead money on their 2020 salary cap but save $11.1 million in cap space in 2019.  I would approach Perry's agent Joe Panos about re-negotiating a significantly discounted deal.  If Panos balks then I would designate Perry as a pre-June 1st cut and take your lumps this season instead of mortgaging the future.  If Panos is open to re-negotiating Perry's deal, I would look to turn it into a two-year $20 million deal with $8 million guaranteed in 2019 and nothing guaranteed in 2020 besides the pro-rated signing bonus.

While we are looking at the outside linebacker position, it is worth mentioning that failing to land outside linebacker Khalil Mack this off-season via trade from the Oakland Raiders is going to go down as one of the worst misses in franchise history.  Mack along with Rodgers are clearly two of the 10 best players irrespective of position in the NFL.  I know earlier that I said outside linebackers aren't as valuable in Pettine's scheme but there are exceptions to that rule, especially for transcendent players like Mack.  There is a chance that Gutekunst offered a deal similar to what the Chicago Bears and Raiders ultimately agreed to****.  Sure the six-year, $141 million contract that the Bears signed Mack to soon after trading for him might have been hard to fit under the cap for the Packers in 2018 given the large deal they just gave Rodgers but you have to do anything in your power to get guys like Mack since they don't become available via trade that often.  I also get that the Raiders might have passed on trading with the Packers because they thought that the Bears picks would be better that the Packers picks.  Basically that is Gutekunst's only out here but if he wasn't willing to give up what the Bears did for a player the caliber of Mack then I worry that is going to be a pall that hangs over his entire tenure as general manager that we get to see at least twice a year when the Packers face the Bears.

There are a couple other guys currently on The 53 that might be candidates to get cut and/or have their contracts re-negotiated.  I figured it made sense to discuss Perry's situation and go on my Mack rant because it is somewhat intertwined with Matthews but I will leave my thoughts on other candidates to get cut and/or have their contract re-negotiated for another post.  A special thanks to Spotrac and Over the Cap that were helpful to provide the financial stuff highlighted in this post.  Make Sure to check back soon because as the Packers nose dive, I am invigorated to help them turn things around by providing my advice via blog posts.

* Unrestrcited Free Agents (11):

- Offense (4): Randall Cobb (WR, $10 million average and will be 29), Marcedes Lewis (TE, $2.1 million and will be 35), Lance Kendricks (TE, $2.0 million and will be 31), and Byron Bell (G/T, $1.6 million, and will be 30).

- Defense (7): Muhammad Wilkerson (DE, $5 million and will be 30), Clay Matthews (OLB, $13.4 million average and will be 33), Jake Ryan (ILB,  $0.7 million average and will be 27), Korey Toomer (ILB, $0.8 million and will be 30), Davon House (CB, $1 million and will be 30), Bashaud Breeland (CB, $0.9 million and will be 27), and Ibraheim Campbell (SS, $0.7 million and will be 27).

** Restricted Free Agents (2):

- Offense (1): Geronimo Allison (WR, $0.6 million average and will be 25).

- Defense (1): Kentrell Brice (S, $0.5 million and will be 25).

*** Exclusive Rights Free Agents (7):

- Offense (5): Tre Carson (RB, $0.6 million and will be 26), Robert Tonyan Jr. (TE, $0.5 million and will be 25), Jake Kumerov (WR, $0.5 million and will be 27), Lucas Patrick (G,  $0.6 million average and will be 26), and Justin McCray (G, $0.6 million and will be 27).

- Defense (2): Reggie Gilbert (OLB, $0.5 million and will be 26) and Tyler Lancaster (DT, $0.5 million and will be 24).

**** Trade Details:
- Chicago Bears get Khalil Mack, 2020 2nd round pick, and 2020 conditional 5th round pick.
- Oakland Raiders get 2019 1st round pick, 2020 1st round pick, 2019 6th round pick, and 2020 3rd round pick.

Mike McCarthy's Swan Song

Well nothing like the Green Bay Packers effectively getting eliminated from the playoff picture before Thanksgiving to get me to post something for the first time in over a year and a half.  It only seems fitting that the Packers see that happen at CenturyLink Field against the Seattle Seahawks because that stadium has been a house of horrors for the Packers given that they haven't won there since 2008 and have gone 0-4, including the infamous Fail Mary game on Monday Night Football in 2012 that effectively put an end to the use of replacement NFL referees followed a few years later by the 2015 NFC Championship Game where the Packers snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory in one of the most painful losses in franchise history.

Honestly the crossroad that the Packers organization are at right now can be drawn directly back to that 2015 NFC Championship Game because that is the day that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, whether he will ever admit or not, lost faith in head coach Mike McCarthy because of how conservative McCarthy got with his in-game decisions when the Packers had a great chance to go to the Super Bowl.  Since then Rodgers has gotten into a number of sideline disagreements with McCarthy and taken a number of not so thinly veiled shots at McCarthy in press conferences. Don't get me wrong, Rodgers hasn't been perfect over the last few years but just look how the Packers have fared without Rodgers over that same time frame.  If McCarthy is in fact an offensive genius, he wouldn't have gone 3-6 with Brett Hundley under center in 2017.  Juxtapose that with the Philadelphia Eagles that won the Super Bowl last season without their franchise quarterback.  I understand that is not a completely fair comparison but seeing how last season played out for the Packers and Eagles shows you how dependent the Packers are on Rodgers.

With that as a backdrop, last off-season the Packers rightly moved on from general manager Ted Thompson.  The modern NFL had passed Thompson by given that he continued to rely solely on the draft as his means for building The 53.  It would be one thing if Thompson continued to nail more draft picks than not like he did earlier in his tenure but the last couple drafts have been littered with more misses than hits so the fact that Thompson continually refused to dip into free agency to add talent to The 53 meant that it was time to go in a new direction.

Packers President Mark Murphy had three very viable internal options to replace Thompson in Brian Gutekunst, Russ Ball, and Elliot Wolf.  Ultimately Murphy went with Gutekunst and "elevated" Ball to keep him in the organization despite passing him over for the job of general manager, which lead to Wolf leaving the Packers for the Cleveland Browns where he joined a number of former Packer front office folks to try to turn around the fortunes of one of the most tortured NFL franchises.  It is way too early to say that Murphy made the wrong choice in picking Gutekunst over Ball and Wolf.  That said, the day Gutekunst was named general manager, it was also announced that Gutekunst, Ball, and McCarthy would all report directly to Murphy.  If the 2015 NFC Championship Game was the beginning of the end for McCarthy and Rodgers, Murphy's decision to come up with a three-headed monster that report to him might be the beginning of the end for Murphy as well.  In almost everyone's eyes besides Murphy and Thompson, McCarthy should have been replaced years ago.  Instead of giving Gutekunst power over that decision, Murphy held onto that power and put McCarthy on the same level of the organizational chart as Gutekunst and Ball for some unknown reason.

With all of that as background, the clear next step is that McCarthy has to go and I mean before this Thanksgiving.   Yes, I know McCarthy has been with the Packers for a long time and won a Super Bowl but McCarthy's offense is Blockbuster-esque in how innovative it is and the Packers clearly need a Netflix-esque innovation on offense because the clock is ticking on Rodgers's tenure in Green Bay despite fact that he is under contract through 2023.  Don't get me wrong, Rodgers hasn't played up to his lofty standards in 2018 but one has nothing to do with the other.  While this might seem like a complicated decision on its face, the Packers committed to Rodgers with the richest contract in NFL history so I understand that the general rule is that management doesn't want players to run the team but there are exceptions to the rule and Rodgers has earned that right in more ways than one to be that exception.  When it comes down to it, if I had to choose Rodgers or McCarthy, I would choose Rodgers 100 times out of a 100 and not think twice about it.

I hate to say it but the night that the Packers won Super Bowl XLV, my mind immediately went to worrying that Rodgers would only win one Super Bowl in Green Bay just like Brett Favre did.  You can argue about where Favre and Rodgers rank all-time but there is no doubt that they are two of the ten best quarterback in NFL history so it is downright shocking that they might only have one Super Bowl each when it is all said and done.  Hell, Rodgers hasn't even gotten back to a Super Bowl since winning Super Bowl XLV.  Honestly, with how things look on The 53 right now, I am not sure that the Packers will have a chance to put the proper pieces around Rodgers to get back there but you still have to try to do everything in your power to at least get back to the Super Bow.

That is why Murphy needs to push in his chips right now to right the wrong he made this off-season to tame the three-headed monster.  Step one is to fire McCarthy and start looking for his replacement immediately.  Step two is to come to an understanding that Ball reports to Gutekunst and if Ball doesn't like that then show him the door too.  Step three is for Murphy and Gutekunst to identify the right young, offensive mind that will help the Packers get the most out of Rodgers and company.  If I had to rank the candidates right now there are three offensive minds that I would focus on: University of Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley, Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, and New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.  Sure you can nitpick each candidate but there is no doubt that each helps bring the Packers offensive out of the 20th century and into the 21st century.

The NFL is just like all other pro sports in that it is a results oriented, win-now business and it is high time that the Packers treat it like that instead of running away from making any changes by letting everyone rest on their laurels.  The Milwaukee Bucks have a once in a generation talent in The Greek Freak.  Instead of sticking with perpetually disappointing head coach Jason Kidd, they moved on to Mike Budenholzer and look like one of the best teams in the NBA despite no major changes to The 15.  Sure there is a chance that replacing McCarthy blows up in Murphy's face and the franchise goes into a tailspin but it is clear that the Packers aren't winning a Super Bowl with their current set-up and that should be their sole focus given that they have a once in a generation talent on The 53 in Rodgers.

Building The 53 - The Most Likelies*

Yesterday I gave you my 35 locks* to make The 53, here are the 9 guys that I think will most likely* make The 53:
 
Quarterback: Brett Hundley

Running Back: None
Fullback: John Kuhn and Aaron Ripkowski 

Wide Receiver: Jeff Janis
Tight End: 
Offensive Tackle: Don Barclay
Offensive Guard: None
Center: None
Defensive End: None

Defensive Tackle: None
Middle Linebacker: Nate Palmer and Jake Ryan
Outside Linebacker: None
Cornerback: None
Safety: Sean Richardson

Specialist: Tim Masthay

That means absent injury, there are really only 9 roster spots on The 53 up for grabs going into training camp.  Check back tomorrow for my initial thoughts on how those final 9 roster spots will shake out.

Building The 53 - The Locks*

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson already made some hard decisions when he moved on from 13 guys that were either on The 53 or injured reserve at the end of last season.  As training camp opens for the 2015 Green Bay Packers, Thompson still has to make a number of tough decisions to finalize The 53.  The easy decisions to make are the locks* currently on the roster.

The reason all of the guys I am about to list are are locks* stems from one of three reasons.  One, they recently signed a huge contract extension (i.e. Randall Cobb).  Two, they were recently drafted in an early round of the NFL Draft (i.e. Damarious Randall).  Three, they are solid starters (i.e. Mike Daniels) at an important position. 

You may have noticed the asterisk following locks* because if any of the following guys suffer a season ending injury during training camp (knocking on wood as I type), the Packers will place them on injured reserve so they would not make The 53 but still would be in the team's long-term plans.  Also at least two players (defensive lineman Letroy Guion and Datone Jones) look like they will at least be suspended for the first game of the season, if NOT longer, but I still think they are both locks to The 53 once they are eligible to play. 

I did this same exercise in 2013 but skipped it last season.  In anticipation of that I gave my 31 "Locks" for The 53 in 2015 almost a month and a half before the 2015 NFL Draft.  Going into the start of training camp, here are the 35 locks* to make The 53:

QB: Aaron Rodgers and Scott Tolzien
RB: Eddie Lacy and James Starks
FB: None
WR: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, and Ty Montgomery
TE: Richard Rodgers and Andrew Quarless
T: Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari
G: Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang
C: Corey Linsley and JC Tretter
DT: Mike Daniels and Josh Boyd
DE: Letroy Guion, B.J. Raji, and Datone Jones
OLB: Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Mike Neal, and Nick Perry
MLB: Sam Barrington
CB: Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, Damarious Randall, and Quinten Rollins
S: Morgan Burnett, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, and Micah Hyde
Specialist: Brett Goode (LS) and Mason Crosby (K) 

Those that read both of my 2015 "Locks" posts closely see that I've added some high 2015 NFL Draft picks (Randall, Rollins, and Montgomery), some veteran defensive lineman (Guion and Raji), and dropped Khyri Thornton from being a lock.  That is a pretty rapid decline for Thornton given that he was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2014 NFL Draft and spent the entire 2014 season on injured reserve.  That leaves 18 roster spots on The 53 up for grabs.  Check back tomorrow for my list of guys "most likely" to make The 53.

Building The 53 - Ranking Former Members of The 53

Before I take my annual look at how I think The 53 should shake out for the Green Bay Packers, the first place to start is to look at the players that are no longer with the team that were on the final 53-man roster or injured reserve when the Packers suffered their heartbreaking loss to the Seattle Seahawks in NFC Championship game last season.  While the Packers "lost" 13 guys, you will see that most of the players that have moved on were not top-end guys.  These rankings take into account age, productivity, potential cost, positional strength, and runs in reverse order:

Aaron Adams (T): While the Packers look to have bookend tackles in David Bakhtiari (LT) and Bryan Bulaga (RT), the Packers really have struggled to develop a quality backup tackle for the last few seasons.  Sure, Don Barclay looked like he would fit that void but let's not forget that Barlcay missed the entire 2014 season with a torn ACL so how well he will perform in 2015 is one of the big questions going into training camp big question.  Adam must be far from game form because the Packers kept him on injured reserve for the entire 2014 season but didn't have a spot on the 90-man off-season roster for him.

Jarrett Bush (CB): Tough off-season for Bush given that he was NOT only arrested for public intoxication but he was also suspended from the NFL for testing positive for the use of performance enhancing drugs.  Bush was always the first one at practice and the last one to leave.  Unfortunately because of the off-season incidents, Bush's reputation will forever be tainted and I would be shocked if another team took a chance on him, which (most likely) brings to a close one of the more interesting careers of a Packer from from the last decade given some of the high's (interception in Super Bowl XLV and consistent special teams player) and low's (inability to regularly play of defense because of his limited skill set, which made him a lightning rod with fans).

Matt Flynn (QB): By all account Flynn is a great locker room guy that parlayed one record-setting NFL start against the Detroit Lions thanks to the fact that the Packers already clinched a playoff birth into almost $20 million in career earnings.  Work ethic seems to be an issue for Flynn though so with three younger and more hungry quarterbacks in the fold in Scott Tolzien, Brett Hundley, or Matt Blanchard...Flynn is clearly expendable.  The only caveat to that is Flynn still might give the Packers a better chance to win a game or two this season if starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers gets hurt but the Packers need to develop Tolzien, Hundley, or Blanchard into a capable backup.  I would much rather suffer growing pains with one of the three young guys even if it costs the Packers a win or two in 2015 since it will help them much more in 2016 and beyond.

Brad Jones (MLB): There is no doubt that Jones will go down as one of the most disappointing Packers starters of the last decade because there were too many underwhelming plays out of Jones after he signed a three-year, $11.25 million contract with $3 million guaranteed.  While the Packers do NOT seem to have a ton of ready made candidates to replace Jones, it is almost addition by subtract at middle linebacker.

Jamari Lattimore (MLB): One of the guys that looked like a potential Jones replacement was Lattimore before his ho-hum performance in 2014 that was cut short by a season ending ankle injury.  There is no question that Lattimore showed flashes of being a disruptive force throughout his tenure of Green Bay, the problem was those flashes were few and far between so despite the fact that middle linebacker is a position of need the Packers decided NOT to pay Lattimore what amounts to the veteran minimum next year to see if he can show more flashes of being a violent presence in 2015 and beyond.

Luther Robinson (DT): I must be the last guy on Robinson Island that remembers Robinson's hit on Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder on Thursday Night Football that lead to a pick-six for Julius Peppers.  While the Packers look to have a number of more effective options on the roster, I wish the Packers would have kept Robinson around given that they only owed him $510,000 for 2015 so he is a very cost-effective back-up defensive lineman option.

Brandon Bostick (TE): There is no question that Bostick's Bill Buckner-esque gaffe at the end of the NFC Championship game against the Seahawks will be what he is remember for most, which is too bad because Bostick showed flashes of being a poor man's Jermichael Finley throughout his tenure in Green Bay. Sometimes the negative baggage is just too much though so the Packers cut Bostick despite tight end being a position of need.  The Vikings claimed Bostick because they take any chance they can to get their hands on a former Packer, even if he is essentially T.J. Rubley 2.0.

DuJuan Harris (RB): Same goes for Harris given that he is currently a member of the Vikings too.  I know Harris struggled in the return game but he seemed to show enough in 2013 to merit at least a look for the 3rd running back spot behind Eddie Lacy and James Starks.

Kevin Dorsey (WR): Some might be surprised to see Dorsey this high on the list given the depth the Packers have at wide receiver (Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Ty Montgomery, Jeff Janis, Jared Abbrederis, and Myles White) but given the fact that Thompson just drafted Dorsey in the 7th round of the 2013 NFL Draft and that he has a slightly larger framer than some of the wide receivers just mentioned, I thought Dorsey was at least worth keeping around for training camp.  Clearly Thompson disagrees.

A.J. Hawk (MLB): After Rodgers there is a chance that Hawk is the guy that I've written about most in this space.  Some of that has to do with the amount of time that Hawk and Rodgers have been on The 53 but mostly I've written about Hawk because he never "lived up" to the lofty expectations associated with his draft status.  While the Packers will NOT miss his play on the field, they will definitely miss his locker room presence and how good of a guy he is off the field (check out Hawk's Locks for Kids).  I know those seem like no big deal but Hawk will go down as one of the best human beings to ever play for the Packers so from this point forward I will do my best to stop killing Hawk for his ho-hum performance on the field throughout his tenure in Green Bay.

Jarrett Boykin (WR): Much of what I said about Dorsey applies to Boykin but you can point to actual NFL production in 2013 (49 receptions for 681 yards and three touchdowns) followed by a down season in 2014 (three receptions for 23 yards and no touchdowns) to back up my argument that Boykin merits at least one of the 90 off-season roster spots.

Davon House (CB): We've finally gotten to the show ponies.  House is nowhere close to American Pharoh but he clearly has the most upside of 13 former Packers on this list.  Given that the Jacksonville Jaguars gave House a four-year, $24.5 million contract with $10 million guaranteed they will need him to NOT only stay healthy, which has been a problem during his tenure in Green Bay given that he appeared in 40 of a possible 64 regular season games but will also need House to blossom into a starting cornerback, again something he never really was in Green Bay.  Bottom line, the contract House signed with the Jaguars was way too rich for me.

Tramon Williams (CB): Sad to see Ole' Faithful go.  For how much House was a question mark, Williams was the exact opposite.  Despite suffering what seemed to be a debilitating shoulder injury midway though his eight year tenure in Green Bay, Williams only missed one game.  Sure Williams never had as many highlight plays as his counter-part Charles Woodson, let's not forget that he did intercept 26 passes as a Packer.  While Williams struggled in bump-in-run coverage following his shoulder injury, he adapted his game to still merit a starting spot on defense throughout his entire tenure.  Given that Thompson drafted two of the cornerbacks of the future in Randall and Rollins with his first two picks in the 2015 NFL Draft, Williams would have been a perfect mentor for 2015 but the Cleveland Browns broke the bank for him when they offered him a three-year, $21 million contract with $10 million guaranteed.  Congrats to Williams and his family on such a lucrative deal, which feels about $6 million too rich.  It was so much of an overpay by the Browns that I would be shocked if Williams played through the 2017 NFL season under that contract for the Browns.

With my "In Memoriam" post in the books, I will turn my attention to the 88 players currently employed by the Packers and vying for one of the coveted 53 roster spots on The 53.  Check back tomorrow when I give my locks* to make The 53.