Mike McCarthy's Swan Song

Well nothing like the Green Bay Packers effectively getting eliminated from the playoff picture before Thanksgiving to get me to post something for the first time in over a year and a half.  It only seems fitting that the Packers see that happen at CenturyLink Field against the Seattle Seahawks because that stadium has been a house of horrors for the Packers given that they haven't won there since 2008 and have gone 0-4, including the infamous Fail Mary game on Monday Night Football in 2012 that effectively put an end to the use of replacement NFL referees followed a few years later by the 2015 NFC Championship Game where the Packers snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory in one of the most painful losses in franchise history.

Honestly the crossroad that the Packers organization are at right now can be drawn directly back to that 2015 NFC Championship Game because that is the day that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, whether he will ever admit or not, lost faith in head coach Mike McCarthy because of how conservative McCarthy got with his in-game decisions when the Packers had a great chance to go to the Super Bowl.  Since then Rodgers has gotten into a number of sideline disagreements with McCarthy and taken a number of not so thinly veiled shots at McCarthy in press conferences. Don't get me wrong, Rodgers hasn't been perfect over the last few years but just look how the Packers have fared without Rodgers over that same time frame.  If McCarthy is in fact an offensive genius, he wouldn't have gone 3-6 with Brett Hundley under center in 2017.  Juxtapose that with the Philadelphia Eagles that won the Super Bowl last season without their franchise quarterback.  I understand that is not a completely fair comparison but seeing how last season played out for the Packers and Eagles shows you how dependent the Packers are on Rodgers.

With that as a backdrop, last off-season the Packers rightly moved on from general manager Ted Thompson.  The modern NFL had passed Thompson by given that he continued to rely solely on the draft as his means for building The 53.  It would be one thing if Thompson continued to nail more draft picks than not like he did earlier in his tenure but the last couple drafts have been littered with more misses than hits so the fact that Thompson continually refused to dip into free agency to add talent to The 53 meant that it was time to go in a new direction.

Packers President Mark Murphy had three very viable internal options to replace Thompson in Brian Gutekunst, Russ Ball, and Elliot Wolf.  Ultimately Murphy went with Gutekunst and "elevated" Ball to keep him in the organization despite passing him over for the job of general manager, which lead to Wolf leaving the Packers for the Cleveland Browns where he joined a number of former Packer front office folks to try to turn around the fortunes of one of the most tortured NFL franchises.  It is way too early to say that Murphy made the wrong choice in picking Gutekunst over Ball and Wolf.  That said, the day Gutekunst was named general manager, it was also announced that Gutekunst, Ball, and McCarthy would all report directly to Murphy.  If the 2015 NFC Championship Game was the beginning of the end for McCarthy and Rodgers, Murphy's decision to come up with a three-headed monster that report to him might be the beginning of the end for Murphy as well.  In almost everyone's eyes besides Murphy and Thompson, McCarthy should have been replaced years ago.  Instead of giving Gutekunst power over that decision, Murphy held onto that power and put McCarthy on the same level of the organizational chart as Gutekunst and Ball for some unknown reason.

With all of that as background, the clear next step is that McCarthy has to go and I mean before this Thanksgiving.   Yes, I know McCarthy has been with the Packers for a long time and won a Super Bowl but McCarthy's offense is Blockbuster-esque in how innovative it is and the Packers clearly need a Netflix-esque innovation on offense because the clock is ticking on Rodgers's tenure in Green Bay despite fact that he is under contract through 2023.  Don't get me wrong, Rodgers hasn't played up to his lofty standards in 2018 but one has nothing to do with the other.  While this might seem like a complicated decision on its face, the Packers committed to Rodgers with the richest contract in NFL history so I understand that the general rule is that management doesn't want players to run the team but there are exceptions to the rule and Rodgers has earned that right in more ways than one to be that exception.  When it comes down to it, if I had to choose Rodgers or McCarthy, I would choose Rodgers 100 times out of a 100 and not think twice about it.

I hate to say it but the night that the Packers won Super Bowl XLV, my mind immediately went to worrying that Rodgers would only win one Super Bowl in Green Bay just like Brett Favre did.  You can argue about where Favre and Rodgers rank all-time but there is no doubt that they are two of the ten best quarterback in NFL history so it is downright shocking that they might only have one Super Bowl each when it is all said and done.  Hell, Rodgers hasn't even gotten back to a Super Bowl since winning Super Bowl XLV.  Honestly, with how things look on The 53 right now, I am not sure that the Packers will have a chance to put the proper pieces around Rodgers to get back there but you still have to try to do everything in your power to at least get back to the Super Bow.

That is why Murphy needs to push in his chips right now to right the wrong he made this off-season to tame the three-headed monster.  Step one is to fire McCarthy and start looking for his replacement immediately.  Step two is to come to an understanding that Ball reports to Gutekunst and if Ball doesn't like that then show him the door too.  Step three is for Murphy and Gutekunst to identify the right young, offensive mind that will help the Packers get the most out of Rodgers and company.  If I had to rank the candidates right now there are three offensive minds that I would focus on: University of Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley, Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, and New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.  Sure you can nitpick each candidate but there is no doubt that each helps bring the Packers offensive out of the 20th century and into the 21st century.

The NFL is just like all other pro sports in that it is a results oriented, win-now business and it is high time that the Packers treat it like that instead of running away from making any changes by letting everyone rest on their laurels.  The Milwaukee Bucks have a once in a generation talent in The Greek Freak.  Instead of sticking with perpetually disappointing head coach Jason Kidd, they moved on to Mike Budenholzer and look like one of the best teams in the NBA despite no major changes to The 15.  Sure there is a chance that replacing McCarthy blows up in Murphy's face and the franchise goes into a tailspin but it is clear that the Packers aren't winning a Super Bowl with their current set-up and that should be their sole focus given that they have a once in a generation talent on The 53 in Rodgers.

Building The 53 - The Most Likelies*

Yesterday I gave you my 35 locks* to make The 53, here are the 9 guys that I think will most likely* make The 53:
 
Quarterback: Brett Hundley

Running Back: None
Fullback: John Kuhn and Aaron Ripkowski 

Wide Receiver: Jeff Janis
Tight End: 
Offensive Tackle: Don Barclay
Offensive Guard: None
Center: None
Defensive End: None

Defensive Tackle: None
Middle Linebacker: Nate Palmer and Jake Ryan
Outside Linebacker: None
Cornerback: None
Safety: Sean Richardson

Specialist: Tim Masthay

That means absent injury, there are really only 9 roster spots on The 53 up for grabs going into training camp.  Check back tomorrow for my initial thoughts on how those final 9 roster spots will shake out.

Building The 53 - The Locks*

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson already made some hard decisions when he moved on from 13 guys that were either on The 53 or injured reserve at the end of last season.  As training camp opens for the 2015 Green Bay Packers, Thompson still has to make a number of tough decisions to finalize The 53.  The easy decisions to make are the locks* currently on the roster.

The reason all of the guys I am about to list are are locks* stems from one of three reasons.  One, they recently signed a huge contract extension (i.e. Randall Cobb).  Two, they were recently drafted in an early round of the NFL Draft (i.e. Damarious Randall).  Three, they are solid starters (i.e. Mike Daniels) at an important position. 

You may have noticed the asterisk following locks* because if any of the following guys suffer a season ending injury during training camp (knocking on wood as I type), the Packers will place them on injured reserve so they would not make The 53 but still would be in the team's long-term plans.  Also at least two players (defensive lineman Letroy Guion and Datone Jones) look like they will at least be suspended for the first game of the season, if NOT longer, but I still think they are both locks to The 53 once they are eligible to play. 

I did this same exercise in 2013 but skipped it last season.  In anticipation of that I gave my 31 "Locks" for The 53 in 2015 almost a month and a half before the 2015 NFL Draft.  Going into the start of training camp, here are the 35 locks* to make The 53:

QB: Aaron Rodgers and Scott Tolzien
RB: Eddie Lacy and James Starks
FB: None
WR: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, and Ty Montgomery
TE: Richard Rodgers and Andrew Quarless
T: Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari
G: Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang
C: Corey Linsley and JC Tretter
DT: Mike Daniels and Josh Boyd
DE: Letroy Guion, B.J. Raji, and Datone Jones
OLB: Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Mike Neal, and Nick Perry
MLB: Sam Barrington
CB: Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, Damarious Randall, and Quinten Rollins
S: Morgan Burnett, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, and Micah Hyde
Specialist: Brett Goode (LS) and Mason Crosby (K) 

Those that read both of my 2015 "Locks" posts closely see that I've added some high 2015 NFL Draft picks (Randall, Rollins, and Montgomery), some veteran defensive lineman (Guion and Raji), and dropped Khyri Thornton from being a lock.  That is a pretty rapid decline for Thornton given that he was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2014 NFL Draft and spent the entire 2014 season on injured reserve.  That leaves 18 roster spots on The 53 up for grabs.  Check back tomorrow for my list of guys "most likely" to make The 53.

Building The 53 - Ranking Former Members of The 53

Before I take my annual look at how I think The 53 should shake out for the Green Bay Packers, the first place to start is to look at the players that are no longer with the team that were on the final 53-man roster or injured reserve when the Packers suffered their heartbreaking loss to the Seattle Seahawks in NFC Championship game last season.  While the Packers "lost" 13 guys, you will see that most of the players that have moved on were not top-end guys.  These rankings take into account age, productivity, potential cost, positional strength, and runs in reverse order:

Aaron Adams (T): While the Packers look to have bookend tackles in David Bakhtiari (LT) and Bryan Bulaga (RT), the Packers really have struggled to develop a quality backup tackle for the last few seasons.  Sure, Don Barclay looked like he would fit that void but let's not forget that Barlcay missed the entire 2014 season with a torn ACL so how well he will perform in 2015 is one of the big questions going into training camp big question.  Adam must be far from game form because the Packers kept him on injured reserve for the entire 2014 season but didn't have a spot on the 90-man off-season roster for him.

Jarrett Bush (CB): Tough off-season for Bush given that he was NOT only arrested for public intoxication but he was also suspended from the NFL for testing positive for the use of performance enhancing drugs.  Bush was always the first one at practice and the last one to leave.  Unfortunately because of the off-season incidents, Bush's reputation will forever be tainted and I would be shocked if another team took a chance on him, which (most likely) brings to a close one of the more interesting careers of a Packer from from the last decade given some of the high's (interception in Super Bowl XLV and consistent special teams player) and low's (inability to regularly play of defense because of his limited skill set, which made him a lightning rod with fans).

Matt Flynn (QB): By all account Flynn is a great locker room guy that parlayed one record-setting NFL start against the Detroit Lions thanks to the fact that the Packers already clinched a playoff birth into almost $20 million in career earnings.  Work ethic seems to be an issue for Flynn though so with three younger and more hungry quarterbacks in the fold in Scott Tolzien, Brett Hundley, or Matt Blanchard...Flynn is clearly expendable.  The only caveat to that is Flynn still might give the Packers a better chance to win a game or two this season if starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers gets hurt but the Packers need to develop Tolzien, Hundley, or Blanchard into a capable backup.  I would much rather suffer growing pains with one of the three young guys even if it costs the Packers a win or two in 2015 since it will help them much more in 2016 and beyond.

Brad Jones (MLB): There is no doubt that Jones will go down as one of the most disappointing Packers starters of the last decade because there were too many underwhelming plays out of Jones after he signed a three-year, $11.25 million contract with $3 million guaranteed.  While the Packers do NOT seem to have a ton of ready made candidates to replace Jones, it is almost addition by subtract at middle linebacker.

Jamari Lattimore (MLB): One of the guys that looked like a potential Jones replacement was Lattimore before his ho-hum performance in 2014 that was cut short by a season ending ankle injury.  There is no question that Lattimore showed flashes of being a disruptive force throughout his tenure of Green Bay, the problem was those flashes were few and far between so despite the fact that middle linebacker is a position of need the Packers decided NOT to pay Lattimore what amounts to the veteran minimum next year to see if he can show more flashes of being a violent presence in 2015 and beyond.

Luther Robinson (DT): I must be the last guy on Robinson Island that remembers Robinson's hit on Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder on Thursday Night Football that lead to a pick-six for Julius Peppers.  While the Packers look to have a number of more effective options on the roster, I wish the Packers would have kept Robinson around given that they only owed him $510,000 for 2015 so he is a very cost-effective back-up defensive lineman option.

Brandon Bostick (TE): There is no question that Bostick's Bill Buckner-esque gaffe at the end of the NFC Championship game against the Seahawks will be what he is remember for most, which is too bad because Bostick showed flashes of being a poor man's Jermichael Finley throughout his tenure in Green Bay. Sometimes the negative baggage is just too much though so the Packers cut Bostick despite tight end being a position of need.  The Vikings claimed Bostick because they take any chance they can to get their hands on a former Packer, even if he is essentially T.J. Rubley 2.0.

DuJuan Harris (RB): Same goes for Harris given that he is currently a member of the Vikings too.  I know Harris struggled in the return game but he seemed to show enough in 2013 to merit at least a look for the 3rd running back spot behind Eddie Lacy and James Starks.

Kevin Dorsey (WR): Some might be surprised to see Dorsey this high on the list given the depth the Packers have at wide receiver (Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Ty Montgomery, Jeff Janis, Jared Abbrederis, and Myles White) but given the fact that Thompson just drafted Dorsey in the 7th round of the 2013 NFL Draft and that he has a slightly larger framer than some of the wide receivers just mentioned, I thought Dorsey was at least worth keeping around for training camp.  Clearly Thompson disagrees.

A.J. Hawk (MLB): After Rodgers there is a chance that Hawk is the guy that I've written about most in this space.  Some of that has to do with the amount of time that Hawk and Rodgers have been on The 53 but mostly I've written about Hawk because he never "lived up" to the lofty expectations associated with his draft status.  While the Packers will NOT miss his play on the field, they will definitely miss his locker room presence and how good of a guy he is off the field (check out Hawk's Locks for Kids).  I know those seem like no big deal but Hawk will go down as one of the best human beings to ever play for the Packers so from this point forward I will do my best to stop killing Hawk for his ho-hum performance on the field throughout his tenure in Green Bay.

Jarrett Boykin (WR): Much of what I said about Dorsey applies to Boykin but you can point to actual NFL production in 2013 (49 receptions for 681 yards and three touchdowns) followed by a down season in 2014 (three receptions for 23 yards and no touchdowns) to back up my argument that Boykin merits at least one of the 90 off-season roster spots.

Davon House (CB): We've finally gotten to the show ponies.  House is nowhere close to American Pharoh but he clearly has the most upside of 13 former Packers on this list.  Given that the Jacksonville Jaguars gave House a four-year, $24.5 million contract with $10 million guaranteed they will need him to NOT only stay healthy, which has been a problem during his tenure in Green Bay given that he appeared in 40 of a possible 64 regular season games but will also need House to blossom into a starting cornerback, again something he never really was in Green Bay.  Bottom line, the contract House signed with the Jaguars was way too rich for me.

Tramon Williams (CB): Sad to see Ole' Faithful go.  For how much House was a question mark, Williams was the exact opposite.  Despite suffering what seemed to be a debilitating shoulder injury midway though his eight year tenure in Green Bay, Williams only missed one game.  Sure Williams never had as many highlight plays as his counter-part Charles Woodson, let's not forget that he did intercept 26 passes as a Packer.  While Williams struggled in bump-in-run coverage following his shoulder injury, he adapted his game to still merit a starting spot on defense throughout his entire tenure.  Given that Thompson drafted two of the cornerbacks of the future in Randall and Rollins with his first two picks in the 2015 NFL Draft, Williams would have been a perfect mentor for 2015 but the Cleveland Browns broke the bank for him when they offered him a three-year, $21 million contract with $10 million guaranteed.  Congrats to Williams and his family on such a lucrative deal, which feels about $6 million too rich.  It was so much of an overpay by the Browns that I would be shocked if Williams played through the 2017 NFL season under that contract for the Browns.

With my "In Memoriam" post in the books, I will turn my attention to the 88 players currently employed by the Packers and vying for one of the coveted 53 roster spots on The 53.  Check back tomorrow when I give my locks* to make The 53.

Building The 53 - Ideal 2015 NFL Draft for the Green Bay Packers

Yesterday I took a look at The 53 for the Green Bay Packers, which helped highlight positions where the Green Bay Packers have adequate depth as well as some positions that the Packers could use some additional guys.  Thanks to Thompson and his scouting staff, the Packers have 33 players on The 53 that they drafted, which is one of the highest totals in the NFL behind the Bengals (35), 49ers (35), Ravens (34), and Falcons (34). The Packers also have a ton of undrafted free agents that have never played for another NFL franchise, which means almost 2/3rds of the 64 guys on their current roster were either drafted or signed as an undrafted free agent by Thompson.

If you were to rank the Top 20 players on The 53 on talent alone, only one of them was signed as unrestricted free agents from another NFL franchise: veteran defensive end/outside linebacker Julius Peppers.  The other 19 guys were added to The 53 via the draft by Thompson.  You have the first round picks that actually worked out (Aaron Rodgers, B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, Bryan Bulaga, Datone Jones, and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix), second round skill position guys (Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy, and Davante Adams), second or third round members of the secondary (Morgan Burnett and Casey Hayward), fourth or fifth round offensive line steals (Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang, David Bakhtiari, and Corey Linsley), late round Iowa overachievers (Mike Daniels and Micah Hyde), and an undrafted free agent (Sam Shields).  As a result, I tread lightly giving Packers general manager Ted Thompson advice on specific players to take with specific picks in the NFL Draft given his impressive track record of drafting and developing The 53 but here are my general thoughts.

Let me be the 10,000th person to state the obvious that the Packers could really use an athletic tight end, a couple versatile defensive lineman, at least one middle linebacker, and a couple cornerbacks.  The flip advice for how to have a perfect draft is to take the best player available in the first round, a skill guy in the second round, a defensive back with the next pick, an offensive lineman in the 4th round, an Iowa guy in the 5th or 6th round, and sign a speedster as an undrafted free agent.  I would actually be fine with that approach even though it would not address certain needs on The 53 but I still think it makes sense to expand slightly on that general advice.

An edge rusher or a cornerback with off-the-field issues like Randy Gregeory (OLB, Nebraska), Shane Ray (Missouri), Marcus Peters (CB, Washington), or Jalen Collins (CB, LSU) could conceivably fall to the Packers at the end of the first round (currently picking 30th).  Whether the organization wants to take that risk is another matter.  If you know that one of your defensive veterans will commit to being a mentor to one of those guys, I say make the pick because all of those guys mentioned are very talented but if you think a player with those off-the-field issues will pollute the locker room then pass on these guys even if they are available.

Unless Sam Barrington and Carl Bradford dramatically improve, the Packers will need to keep Clay Matthews inside or add a quality guy.  For how much I like the physicality that Matthews brings to the position, he is not on The 53 to cover tight ends or running backs, which is why I am totally fine with the Packers taking Eric Kendricks (UCLA) or Denzel Perryman (Miami) at the end of the first round.  If Plan A or Plan B for the first round just described does not work out for Thompson, I say trade out of the first round to pick up an extra second round pick along with some late picks or possibly even a player.  Unfortunately that might not be possible because there is not a quarterback that is worthy of going at that point so the trade market will most likely be soft.

If tight ends Maxx Williams (Minnesota) or Clive Walford (Miami) somehow last till the end of the second round, Thompson should swoop.  If both are gone, I would wait till the end of the draft to take an athletic tight end.  Given that the Packers are set at the other skill positions, I would turn to the defensive side of the ball and take the best player available at the end of the second round.  I could give you a laundry list of names but I am not sure that really helps given that Thompson has already set his board.  The point is that the Packers need to continue to add as much defensive talent to The 53 as possible if the specific tight ends discused above are no longer available.

In the third and fourth rounds I am all about adding depth at positions of need, which seems like the no shit line of this post.  I value talent over need and did not have enough time to study the mid-round guys so I defer to Thompson on the specifics of the guys he drafts at that point but again the key is that if there are a couple guys with roughly the same grade in the mid-rounds I hope that Thompson gives a little more credence to positions of need as opposed to adding the best player available irrespective of positional need.

Finally in terms of late picks in the 2015 NFL Draft, I would love to see Thompson add three types of players: a developmental quarterback, a versatile versatile return man/running back/slot wide out, and a tall cornerback.

For the quarterback, I don't even need the guy to have a rocket arm, I just need him to be coachable.  I know that sounds cliche but Rodgers is going to be the starter in Green Bay a long time so having a good sounding board for Rodgers is more important than having a cannon for an arm. Unless the Packers use a day two pick, I assume that Bryce Petty (Baylor) and Brett Hundley (UCLA) will be gone. If either of those guys fall in the draft, I would favor adding one of them.  If not, Thompson should focus on adding a different coachable.

Next, let's go over how Thompson can add a versatile return man/running back/slot wide out later in the draft.  It would be easy to say Tyler Lockett (WR, Kansas State) or Jeremy Langford (RB, Michigan State) but those guys will be long gone by the last few rounds of the 2015 NFL Draft.  Here are three guys that I have my eye on for the versatile return man/running back/slot wide out: Karlos Williams (RB, Florida State), Trey Williams (RB, Texas A&M), and Cameron Artis-Payne (RB, Auburn).  There are always durability issues with guys like this because their small stature is what makes them so versatile but it is also what leaves them one hit ways from being out of the NFL.

Finally in terms of the tall cornerbacks, three guys late in the draft that I have my eye on are: Ladarius Gunter (Miami, 6'1-1/2" and 202 lbs), Julian Wilson (Oklahoma, 6'2" and 205 lbs), and Nick Marshall (Auburn, 6'1-1/2" and 207 lbs).  The only safety that fits that criteria is Durell Eskridge (Syracuse, 6'2-7/8" and 208 lbs) but Eskridge's injury issues worry me.  I know the NFL is a copycat league and the odds that drafting a tall cornerback late in the draft will net you the next Richard Sherman are slim but given all the tall wide receivers that the Packers face in the NFC North, they are going to need to get taller at the cornerback and safety position at some point or they will continue to get torched on jump-balls.

Well with my thoughts on how Thompson should approach the 2015 NFL Draft in the books, make sure to check back tomorrow for my first round mock draft, which I believe is an unofficial Internet requirement if you have a sport blog.

Building The 53 - Locks for The 53 in 2015

I am going to restrict my locks for The 53 to players that are currently signed through at least 2015.  If healthy, here are my 31 locks listed how I think they should be on the depth chart for The 53 to open 2015 for the Packers:

Offense: 15 players
QB: Aaron Rodgers and Scott Tolzien
RB: Eddie Lacy and James Starks
FB: None
WR: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams
TE: Richard Rodgers and Andrew Quarless
T: Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari
G:Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang
C: Corey Linsley and JC Tretter
Analysis: The most controversial of the locks above is Tretter.  I hate to make too much of one season but Linsley looks like he could be the starting center in Green Bay for the next decade so that hurts Tretter's stock, especially because I see backup offensive lineman Don Barclay being the 6th offensive lineman on The 53 in 2015 even though I did not list Barclay as a "lock".  Let's not forget that less than a year ago that Tretter was the presumptive starter at center until he got injured again though. Sure the Packers will most likely bring back Barclay and Kuhn but that is really all that is worth discussing on offense at this point given that Bulaga and Cobb just signed long-term deals.  That means that the Packers essentially return their top 15 guys on offense going into training camp last season for 2015 besides wide receiver Jarrett Boykin, which the Packers replaced with Davante Adams.

Defense: 14 players
DT: Mike Daniels and Josh Boyd
DE: Datone Jones and Khyri Thornton
OLB: Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Mike Neal, and Nick Perry
MLB: Sam Barrington
CB: Sam Shields and Casey Hayward
S: Morgan Burnett, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, and Micah Hyde
Analysis: For how much everything is settled on offense, everything is that unsettled on defense.  The Packers have a ton of difficult

2015 Off-Season Advice for TT

Projections for Practice Squad How to Handle 2015 ERFA's How to Handle 2015 RFA's How to Handle 2015 UFA's Free Agent Shopping Guide Potential Salary Cap Casualties Locks for The 53 in 2015

decisions to make along the defensive line given their lack of top-end talent after Daniels, which is why I made Thornton a lock even though he missed his entire rookie season given that he was a 3rd round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.  I expect that both Letroy Guion and B.J. Raji will ultimately return to the Packers in 2015 but given that they are NOT on The 53 right now, the defensive line is clearly influx.  Given that Thompson already cut A.J. Hawk and Bran Jones, the only experienced middle linebackers that are locks for The 53 are Barrington and Matthews.  I hope that Matthews doesn't get regular snaps at middle linebacker though given that his best skill is rushing the quarterback. Finally let's take a quick look at the defensive backs.  For the first time in a long time the Packers have more locks at safety than they do at cornerback so I could see Hyde shifting back to cornerback if the Packers do NOT resign Tramon Williams and Davon House.  As you can see, essentially every position on defense is in flux besides outside linebacker and safety.

Specialist: 2 players
LS:  Brett Goode
K: Mason Crosby
Analysis: Thompson added punter Cody Mandell to give Tim Masthay some competition.  While I see the Ginger Wolverine ultimately beating out Mandell, it will be one of the more interesting training camp battles.  Although I laid out simple plan for replacing Crosby, I see him returning in 2015.

With that, my seven-part series of advice for how Thompson should approach Building The 53 for 2015 is officially in the books.  It may sound crazy but I see this series as my resume if any Packer front-office positions open this off-season.  I expect things to be quiet on the personnel front for the Packers for the next month but if Thompson starts making moves to The 53, check back for full coverage in this space.

Building The 53 - Potential Salary Cap Casualties

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson started the revamp of the middle linebacker position this off-season when he cut former starting middle linebackers A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones. Both Hawk (five-year, $33.75 million with $8 million guaranteed) and Jones (three-year, $11.25 million with $3 million) were entering the final years of their respective contract, which is usually the most expensive year in terms of salary but carries the lowest amount of guaranteed money and thus the least cap consequences via dead money for cutting a player.

Hawk had a $5.1 million cap hit for 2015 ($2.45 million in salary, $1.6 million in pro-rated signing bonus, $0.8 million in potential roster bonuses, and $0.25 million in potential workout bonuses) but the Packers only have to carry $1.6 million in dead money when they cut Hawk so the Packers gained $3.5 million in cap space when they cut Hawk.  Jones had a $4.75 million cap hit for 2015 ($3.25 million in salary, $1 million in pro-rated signing bonus, $0.3 million in potential roster bonuses, and $0.2 million in potential workout bonuses) but the Packers only have to carry $1 million in dead money when they cut Jones so the Packers gained $3.75 million in cap space when they cut Jones.  All told that means the Packers gained $7.25 million in cap space for 2015 when they cut two of the most disappointing players on The 53 in 2014 so these moves were borderline no brainers.

Quick side note on the escalating contract values in general.  Usually a player's performance declines as they get older with their late 20's being the peak performance years for non-quarterback NFL players.  As a result, I would like to see the Packers signing more contract extensions that peak in the middle and then start to decline towards the end.  I get the time-value of money and that players might want to renegotiate before the end of the deal since their salary will decrease but most back-loaded contracts get renegotiated anyhow since they contain expensive salaries right as the player's performance starts to decline.  I am not sure that Thompson would have kept Hawk or Jones on The 53 for 2015 even at half their cap number in 2015 but it would at least given each of them a chance to make The 53 in 2015.

Thompson does NOT like to cut players from the 53, hence the reason that Hawk was on the roster a couple years longer that he should have been.  In fact Thompson's decision to keep Hawk as long as he did lead to a ton of jokes between my buddies and I about what compromising pictures/information that Hawk had on Packer management.  Although I expect the big-name bloodletting to end with Hawk and Jones, there are a couple other guys that Thompson should at least consider cutting in order to give the Packers the most possible cap space to retain as many of their top-end free agents as possible.

2015 Off-Season Advice for TT

Projections for Practice Squad How to Handle 2015 ERFA's How to Handle 2015 RFA's How to Handle 2015 UFA's Free Agent Shopping Guide Potential Salary Cap Casualties Locks for The 53 in 2015

Given the huge jump in his salary cap hit from 2014 to 2015, the most obvious candidate to get cut would be outside linebacker Julius Peppers since his salary cap hit jumps from $3.5 million in 2014 to 12 million in 2015 as a part of the three-year, $26 million million contract with $7.5 million guaranteed that Peppers signed before the 2014 season.  Given the spark that Peppers gave the Packers in 2014, I would NOT cut him or even approach him about renegotiating for a few reasons.  One, Peppers gives the Packers a versatile pass rusher to line-up opposite Clay Matthews that will draw at least some attention away from Matthews.  Two, the Packers rarely sign unrestricted free agents from other NFL teams so it sends a bad message if you cut one of those guys just on year later.  Three, although Peppers carries a $12 million cap hit in 2015, the Packers would eat $5 million in dead money if they cut Peppers so it is a $7 million savings NOT a $12 million savings.

Given that Peppers carries a lower cap hit of $10.5 million in 2016 and would result in only $2.5 million in dead money if he was cut between the 2015 and 2016 season, I would hold onto Peppers for 2015 and possibly even 2016 if he performs as well in 2015 as he did in 2014.  The one thing that gives me pause is the fact that Matthews holds a $12.7 million cap hit for 2015 so that means Matthews and Peppers have a combined $24.7 million cap hit for 2015 but that just shows you the premium that the market puts on high-end pass rushers.

Besides Matthews and Peppers, the Packers have a fair amount of money tied up in their backups pass rushers too given that Mike Neal has a $4.25 million cap hit ($2.25 million in dead money if cut) and Nick Perry has a $2.4 cap hit (~$1 million in dead money if cut) in 2015 so may be I should revise my statement above about the market for high-end pass rushers to just say pass rushers in general.  There is virtually no chance that Thompson picks up Perry's 5th year option as a part of his rookie contract so that means Neal and Perry will enter 2015 in the last year of each of their contracts.  Perry has been a huge disappointment relative to how disruptive I thought he would be given that Perry was one of my draft crushes heading into the 2012 NFL Draft even before Thompson drafted Perry in the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft.  Unless Matthews suffers a career ending injury in 2015, there is no question that he will be on The 53 in 2016.  The real question is whether Neal, Peppers, or Perry will be too.  Thankfully the Packers have a ton of raw, cheap pass rushers currently on the roster that can step in opposite Matthews down the road.

The last guy that Thompson could consider cutting is placekicker Mason Crosby given that he has a cap hit of $3.55 million in 2015, which is the 7th highest place kicker salary cap hit in 2015.  Here is another example of back-end loaded contracts rearing their ugly head given that Crosby is in the last year of his five-year, $14.75 million contract with $3 million guaranteed.  Crosby had arguably his best season in Green Bay in 2014 but there is no correlation from season-to-season for placekickers, which means Crosby is just as likely to regress in 2015 as he is to kick as well as he did in 2014.  If the Packers cut Crosby they would have to carry only $0.6 million in dead money so they would gain $2.95 million in cap space.  If Thompson identifies a strong-legged, cold weather kicker in the 2015 NFL Draft then I would use a late round pick on him.  A guy like that would have very little guaranteed money in his rookie contract and an annual salary around $0.6 million so that means the Packers could gain upwards of $2 million in cap space by making that move.  Instead of just cutting Crosby right after the draft, I would hold an open kicking competition between Crosby and the rookie.  If the rookie outperforms Crosby then I would cut Crosby in favor of the rookie, otherwise if Crosby kicks his way onto The 53 then I would eat the ~$0.1 million in dead cap space for cutting the rookie and keep Crosby.

My guess is that Thompson cuts no other big-names but as I just explained, there are a couple guys that should keep one eye over their should because their large cap hits mean they could join Hawk and Jones sooner rather than later.

Building The 53 - Free Agent Shopping Guide

There are two types of players that I would target in free agency if I were Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson: unquestionable studs at their position that could be a franchise changing acquisition or quality veterans on the cheap after the market plays out.  The former is NOT likely while the ladder is somewhat likely depending on how the market plays out.

Sure there are some big name like Byron Maxwell (CB, Seattle Seahawks) and Julius Thomas (TE, Denver Broncos) about to hit the free agent market but typically Thompson does NOT engage in bidding wars, which guys like Maxwell and Thomas will create so I see Thompson taking a much more measure approach.  The one caveat to that is defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh.  Sure Suh had a number of dust up with the Packers (remember the stomps on EDS and Rodgers) but there is truly only one game-changing free agent on the market this off-season and that man is Suh.

2015 Off-Season Advice for TT

Projections for Practice Squad How to Handle 2015 ERFA's How to Handle 2015 RFA's How to Handle 2015 UFA's Free Agent Shopping Guide Potential Salary Cap Casualties Locks for The 53 in 2015

I presume that it will take an NFL record contract to land Suh that will be even bigger than Gerald McCoy's six-year, $95.2 million contract with $51.5 million guaranteed.  I am not sure how the Packers could fit a deal like that into their long-term plans given what they have committed to Rodgers and Matthews but I hope Packers vice president of football administration/player finance Russ Ball is at least running the numbers right now to see if this pipe dream of landing Suh has any chance of becoming a reality.  Suh's on the field performance speaks for itself.  In fact, the only games that Suh misses are due to suspension as opposed to injury.  The one caveat to all of this is that Suh is 28 years old, which is old by defensive lineman standards.  The more I think about, the more I think it makes sense for Thompson to pass on Suh so I actually hope you are NOT running the numbers Russ.  Onto advice that Thompson might actually follow.

Given what I just said, odds are that Thompson sits back and doesn't sign any unrestricted free agent that played for another team besides the Packers for the first week of free agency.  Truth be told, I am fine with that strategy.  If any of the following players are left after a couple weeks of free agency, I hope that Thompson signs them to one-year deals: Tyson Alualu (DT, Jacksonville Jaguars), Akeem Ayers (OLB, New England Patriots), Jordan Cameron (TE, Cleveland Browns), Adrian Clayborn (DE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Mason Foster (MLB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Brandon Graham (OLB, Philadelphia Eagles), Terrance Knighton (DT, Denver Broncos), Zach Miller (TE, Seattle Seahawks), Jared Odrick (DL, Miami Dolphins), O'Brien Schofield (OLB, Seattle Seahawks), Malcolm Smith (LB, Seattle Seahawks), or Brandon Spikes (MLB, Buffalo Bills).

Clearly NOT all of those guys will be available in a few weeks.  Even if they were, Thompson would not even have the roster spots much less the salary cap space to make it happen.  You will notice that all of the players above fit into four categories: pass catching tight end, versatile defensive lineman, edge rusher, or athletic middle linebacker.  If I had to prioritize any of those positions, I actually think I would put versatile defensive lineman first on the list.  That is why I was tempted to throw more money at Knighton or Odrick but drafting well and showing fiscal restraint in free agency has kept the Packers a perennial playoff contender for the better part of the last decade so although it would be nice to lock down either of those guys early in free agency, I don't want Thompson to do that if it means he potentially overpays them for their services.

Let's see how the top end of the free agent market plays out over the next couple days and I will revisit with my thoughts, if necessary.

Building The 53 - How to Handle 2015 Unrestricted Free Agents

There are 11 players currently on the roster for the Green Bay Packers that are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents very soon, five on offense and six on defense.  The five offensive players are: Bryan Bulaga (T), Randall Cobb (WR), Matt Flynn (QB), John Kuhn (FB), and Scott Tolzien (QB).  The six defensive players are: Jarrett Bush (CB), Letroy Guion (DT), Davon House (CB), Jamari Lattimore (LB), B.J. Raji (DT), and Tramon Williams (CB).  After reading all the names on the list, you can see that there are a number of very difficult decisions for Packers general manager Ted Thompson.

As a general matter there are four ways to deal with the aforementioned free agents: let them become free agents, sign them to one-year veteran minimum deals, sign them to reasonable long-term deals, or sign them to expensive long-term deals.  The Packers have ~$33 million in salary cap space so they could theoretically sign almost all 11 guys but I am more interested in making sure that the Packers keep a balanced roster in terms of how much money is allocated to each position instead of just bringing everyone back because they have the salary cap space. The thought is that the Packers need to make sure any extension they offer makes just as much sense in 2018 as it does right now.

The no-brainers is letting Lattimore leave via free agency.  Oh man have things changed for Lattimore.  Early in the 2014 season when I was in full hate Brad Jones mode I thought Lattimore might actually be a long-term answer at middle linebacker.  Based on how Lattimore played in 2014 before he suffered a season ending injury shows that is clearly NOT the case.  This may be too much of a blast from the past for people but a couple season ago Lattimore and Terrell Manning battled for a roster spot.  I favored Manning over Lattimore but Lattimore beat out Manning.  While Manning has NOT been a great NFL player, I now feel vindicated that the call between Lattimore and Manning was closer than it appeared at the time.

I would tell Bush, Flynn, Guion, Kuhn, Raji, and Tolzien that they have a one-year, veteran minimum offers ready for them to sign.  Originally I would have thrown some decent money over a couple years at Guion (say two years, $5 million with $1.75 million guaranteed) but Guion was recently pulled over and arrested after police found an unloaded gun, a ton of weed, and almost $200,000 in cash in his car.  I am going to go out on a limb and say that arrest is going to hurt Guion's free agent value.

2015 Off-Season Advice for TT

Projections for Practice Squad How to Handle 2015 ERFA's How to Handle 2015 RFA's How to Handle 2015 UFA's Free Agent Shopping Guide Potential Salary Cap Casualties Locks for The 53 in 2015

Besides Guinon, I honestly think Raji is the next most attractive name on the list despite the fact that puts him ahead of a 2014 All Pro (Kuhn), a special teams standout (Bush), and two serviceable backup NFL quarterbacks (Flynn and Tolzien) even though Raji missed all of 2014 with a torn bicep.  Raji signed a one-year, $4 million "prove it" contract after he turned down a big money extension in the middle of the 2013 season that reportedly was worth upwards of $8 million a year because he wanted to test the free agent market.  Although interest in Raji was tepid last off-season, I could see him garnering at least a little interest on the free agent market this off-season if he is willing to take just the league minimum.  Take that with a grain of salt though because I thought Thompson should offer Raji a four-year, $20 million deal with $5 million guaranteed last off-season when Thompson ultimately signed Raji to a one-year, $4 million deal.  Sure Raji might be able to sign for a million more elsewhere in 2015 but I think that would be a mistake because if Raji stays healthy and productive in 2015 for the Packers, I could see Thompson signing him to a lucrative extension next off-season to keep Raji in Green Bay for his entire NFL career.

Clearly I see the market being soft for Bush, Flynn, Guion, Kuhn, Raji, and Tolzien so I would let them all make some free agent visits to gauge their market value because I guarantee that their actual free agent value is much less than their agents are currently telling them it is.  If any of those guys can actually sign for more than the veteran minimum, I would not getting in a bidding war if I was Thompson.  Instead I would wish them good luck and replenish via the draft or free agency.

That leaves Bulaga, Cobb, House, and Williams.  I am going to take a somewhat controversial view at the outset and say that the Packers should NOT break the bank for Cobb.  If I were Thompson, I would have put the franchise tag on Cobb, which would have secured his services for $12.823 million for 2015 in Green Bay or elsewhere if Thompson traded Cobb.  The floor of what I would take for Cobb in a trade would be a second round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft given that the Packers would most likely get a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2016 NFL Draft for Cobb if he signs elsewhere this off-season.  There are rumblings that Cobb wants upwards of $9 or even $10 million a year.  If that is the case that would put Cobb and wide receiver Jordy Nelson in essentially the same position financially depending on how much guaranteed money that Cobb gets.  That would also mean that the Packers would be committing roughly $20 million a year to their top two wide receivers, which seems a little rich, especially since they have a ton of young wide receivers on the roster in Davante Adams, Jared Abbrederis, Jeff Janis, and Myles White.  Collectively all four might not be as good as Cobb yet but the Packers have NOT missed a beat when they lost Greg Jennings and James Jones so it almost seems like addition by subtraction when young wide outs are given a chance, which Thompson clearly has to factor into his decision making process for how to handle the Cobb negotiations.

The only NFL teams with a ton of cap space to make a $9 or $10 million a year deal work are the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders.  I know Cobb is only 24 years old and is coming off one of his most productive season in the NFL but let's not forget that his diminutive frame makes him injury prone.  In fact with the proliferation of slot guys that can also line-up in the backfield or even occasionally out wide, I see there being more and more players like Cobb available in the NFL Draft given that demand is increasing for these types of players.  It might get to the point in five or ten years that slot guys are like running backs now where you need a couple but you never want to invest too much in any one guy.  For that reason, I honestly think Bulaga is the most important free agent for the Packers.

I know Bulaga missed 28 games over his five seasons in Green Bay but let's not forget that he was the heir apparent at left tackle just a few years ago.  I hope that David Bakhtiari turns out to be the left tackle of the future but let's not forget that is only entering his third NFL season so there is chance that he could regress.  Left tackle Jermon Bushrod's five-year, $35.9 million contract with $22.5 million guaranteed that he signed with the Chicago Bears before last season is a good comp.  The guaranteed money that Bushrod got will probably out pace what Bulaga gets but five-years for $35 million seems very fair for Bulaga.  I know that might feel rich but the Packers have two cheap pieces at left tackle in Bakhtiari and center in Corey Linsely so they can afford to pay Bulaga.  Plus with Barclay most likely coming back on a one-year, $1.5 million contract and J.C. Tretter still on his rookie contract, the Packers are in a good position to fill their backup spots along the offensive line without having to overpay in the free agent market.

That leaves House and Williams.  Even if the Packers let Bush, House, and Williams leave via free agency they would still have Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, Micah Hyde (if they shift him back to cornerback), and Demetri Goodson as their top four cornerbacks.  Surely that would mean the Packers would need to draft a cornerback in the 2015 NFL Draft.  Inevitably positions go through a churn so this off-season might be the cornerback churn.  There are reports that the Packers are offering Williams two-year deal worth $8 million but he wants a three or four year deal that averages $5 million a year.  There are also reports that House wants to be paid like a starter, which I presume means upwards of $6 or $7 million a year, which is way too much for an injury prone cornerback.  You could argue that Williams's on-field performance has declined slightly but there is no questioning his durability given that he only missed one game so far in his career in Green Bay.  The same cannot be said for House given all of his injury issues but House's three-year ceiling is much higher than Williams but those some injury issues means House's potential floor is much lower too.  Much like Nelson getting paid hurting Cobb because there is only so much money that teams can commit to each non-quarterback position, Shields getting paid hurts House and Williams given that Shields signed a four-year, $39 million contract before last season.

For what it is worth, I would be willing to hand out the following deals to keep Cobb, House, and Williams.  For Cobb, I would actually sign a back-end loaded deal because of how young he is and how much the salary cap will go up in a few years that averages $7 million a year so that would make it a six-year, $42 million deal with $20 million guaranteed.  For House, I don't think I would go much higher than $4 million a year so my ceiling would be a five-year, $20 million deal with $7.5 million guaranteed.  Finally for Williams the highest that I would go is $3.5 million a year so I would sign him to a three-year, $10.5 million deal with $5 million guaranteed to give him more assurances that he will be on The 53 for at least two of the three years.

Thanks for sticking around for the fourth installment my off-season advice for Thompson.  I know this post was by far the longest one of the off-season season but given how many players on The 53 last season that are set to become unrestricted free agents in just a couple days, clearly Thompson has some tough decisions ahead of him.  I am sure that I will revisit this post after the first few weeks of free agency plays out to see if Thompson followed any of my advice.  Make sure to check back tomorrow for my free agent buyers guide for Thompson that highlights guys that were not on The 53 for the Packers last year that Thompson should at least consider signing to The 53.

Building The 53 - How to Handle 2015 Exclusive Rights Free Agents

The Green Bay Packers have two exclusive rights free agents this off-season: Chris Banjo (S) and DuJuan Harris (RB).  The reason that both players are exclusive rights free agents are that they each have less than three years of NFL experience, which means Packers general manager Ted Thompson can retain both for slightly more than their 2014 salary via a low-cost, one-year contract.

If tendered for 2015 by Thompson that means that Banjo would earn ~$500,000 while Harris would earn ~$650,000.  Banjo appeared in three games for the Packers in 2014 and registered just one tackle.  Harris provided the Packers with more production in 2014 than Banjo given that Harris appeared in 15 games but still did very little from the line of scrimmage for the Packers: 64 yards on 16 carries.  Going into 2014 it looked like Harris was going to be a revelation on kick-off returns but he managed to amass just 456 ho-hum yards on 22 kick-off returns.  Oh what a difference two years makes given that Banjo got much more playing time two years ago and Harris looked like a potential starting running back.  This all paints a dismal picture for either player getting tendered but the economics of retaining both via a one-year deal just makes too much sense.

2015 Off-Season Advice for TT

Projections for Practice Squad How to Handle 2015 ERFA's How to Handle 2015 RFA's How to Handle 2015 UFA's Free Agent Shopping Guide Potential Salary Cap Casualties Locks for The 53 in 2015

Thompson has until Tuesday, March 10th to tender Banjo and/or Harris.  Both are probably the easiest decision of the entire off-season for Thompson given that by tendering them they are signed to non-guaranteed, one-year deals for what amounts to the league minimum.  Sure Banjo is essentially the 5th safety on the depth chart behind Morgan Burnett, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Micah Hyde, and Sean Richardson and Harris is the 3rd running back on the depth chart behind Eddie Lacy and James Starks so they are both deep backups but spending essentially $1 million to fill two roster spots on The 53 in 2015 just makes too much economic sense if one or both guys can earn one of the coveted 53 spots on The 53.  Worst case, Thompson identifies better options so he cuts Banjo and/or Harris with no salary cap consequences.

Make sure to check back tomorrow when I give my advice to Thompson for how to handle his three restricted free agents.

Building The 53 - Projections for Practice Squad Players

The 2014 NFL season has long since come to a close for the Green Bay Packers, which ended with a heartbreaking overtime loss in the NFC Championship Game on the road the Seattle Seahawks.  It took me some time to process that loss because of the roller-coaster of emotions that I went through that day.  If you told me right before the opening kickoff that the Packers would take the Seahawks to overtime, I would have been ecstatic given that the Seahawks were the presumptive favorites heading into the game.  Unfortunately the Packers systematically self-destructed to snatch a loss from the jaws of victory.  Given how well Packers general manager Ted Thompson manages The 53, I am sure he was working on The 53 for 2015 even before the start of the 2014 season.  Despite that fact, I still feel the need to advise Thompson on how to handle The 53 this off-season.

In the past I wrote one long post about how Thompson should approach the off-season (2011, 2012, and 2013) but given all the moving parts, much like I did last year, I am going to breakdown my advice into a number of post.  The first step in Building The 53 for 2015 is evaluating the players currently on the practice squad.

Thompson did not extend any players before the end of the regular season, which means the Packers will carry over roughly ~$8 million of cap space from 2014 to their 2015 salary cap.  The Packers have their top 51 most expensive ~$110 million, which leaves them upwards of $33 million in salary cap space for 2015 given that initial reports are that the salary cap will be $143.28 million in 2015.  That sounds like the Packers will have a ton of salary cap space but they have 16 players on The 53 in 2014 that are exclusive rights (2 players), restricted (3 players) or unrestricted (11 players) free agents that in less than a week will be available for any new team to sign unless the Packers sign them to a contract extension, which makes every decision about The 53 for 2015 crucial.

2015 Off-Season Advice for TT

Projections for Practice Squad How to Handle 2015 ERFA's How to Handle 2015 RFA's How to Handle 2015 UFA's Free Agent Shopping Guide Potential Salary Cap Casualties Locks for The 53 in 2015

In the off-season Thompson can have a 90-man roster as he works towards The 53 to open the season.  Thompson signed nine of the ten players from their final practice squad at the end of January to the 90-man roster: Jean Fanor (S), Tay Glover-Wright (CB), Adrian Hubbard (LB), Joe Madsen (C), Rajion Neal (RB), Joe Thomas (LB), Jeremy Vujnovich (T), Josh Walker (G), and Myles White (WR). For some reason Thompson decided not to sign Alex Gillett (WR) to a futures contract.  I find that decision slightly odd given that Gillett has been with the organization off and on for the last two seasons.  I don't have any grand illusion that Gillett will become the next Jordy Nelson but he seemed talented enough in his limited preseason snaps to warrant one of the 90 spots on the off-season roster.

Given that Thompson already signed the aforementioned nine guys, I thought it made sense to handicap each guy's chance of making The 53 to start the 2015 season by splitting them into three groups: long-shots, injury fill-in, or decent chance.

Technically all of these guys are long-shots since they were NOT on The 53 to end the season but among the nine guys, there are six guys that look like they are really long shots: Fanor, Glover-Wright, Madsen, Vujnovich, and Walker.  Sure there are always undrafted free agents that make The 53 but those spots are becoming more and more scarce because the last few guys cut by Thompson are now routinely added to The 53 for other NFL teams.  Plus Thompson does a good job of stacking depth on The 53 so I would be shocked if any of the six guys mentioned even get meaningful preseason snaps.  Sadly for those guys families that makes the six guys just discussed very, very, very long shots to even make it past the first round of cuts in the off-season.

There is really only one injury fill-in guy and that is Neal.  The Packers presumably like the three running backs that project to make The 53 next season in Eddie Lacy, James Starks, and DuJuan Harris.  Sure Harris played sparingly down the stretch last season and was even a healthy scratch a couple games last season but part of that was due to the fact that Lacy and Starks were shockingly healthy most of last season.  Given the lengthy injury history for Lacy & Starks, the odds that both of them stay healthy all of 2015 are quite low.  Assuming that Thompson does NOT draft a running back in the 2015 NFL Draft, it gives Neal a real shot to make The 53 at some point in 2015.

That leaves Hubbard, Thomas, and White as decent shots to make The 53.  The case for Hubbard and Thomas is the same.  Both guys are versatile linebackers, which makes them intriguing prospects.  That is something the Packers clearly need after they cut middle linebackers Brad Jones and A.J. Hawk.  Neither Hubbard or Thomas project as surefire starters at inside or outside linebacker but their versatility reminds me a little bit of Jamari Lattimore.  I give Hubbard (6'6" and 257 lbs) a slight edge over Thomas (6'1" and 227 lbs) just based on his Hubbard's size.  If Hubbard could somehow legally add 10 or 15 pounds of muscles in the off-season, I would change him from a decent chance to a borderline lock to make The 53.

The final player to discuss is White.  I am actually shocked that the Packers were able to keep White on their practice squad for all of 2014 given that some thought White deserved to make The 53 to start the 2014 season.  White projects as a quality slot receiver with enough size to line-up outside too.  With the wide receiver position in flux this off-season, I could see White making a real push to be the 5th or 6th wide receiver on The 53 next season depending on how Thompson approaches free agency and the draft.  If money were no object the Packers would resign Randall Cobb to a mega extension and tender Jarrett Boykin to give the Packers seven quality receivers in Jordy Nelson, Cobb, Devante Adams, Boykin, Jared Abbrederis, Jeff Janis, and White.  Fortunately for the guys on the bottom end of that list, there is a salary cap and Thompson already committed to Nelson long-term.  That means both Cobb and Boykin could play elsewhere next season, which gives White a great shot at making The 53.

I know a discussion of practice squad guys is NOT very sexy but it is an important one given every couple years Thompson develops a starter off of the practice squad.  Make sure to check back tomorrow for my thoughts on how Thompson should handle his two exclusive rights restricted free agents.

The 53 - 2014 Green Bay Packers Initial Roster

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson recently trimmed the active roster to 75 players. Following the initial rounds of cuts, Packers head coach Mike McCarthy gave the backups plenty of playing time against the Kansas City Chiefs in the preseason finale to give each of the guys a chance to make The 53.  Some of the backups played well, which was evident when Thompson trimmed the active roster from 75 to 53.

In order to get down to The 53, Thompson cut 18 players and placed four players on injured reserve. 

Review of The 53

Initial Review of the Roster Initial Review of the Practice Squad Five Most Overpaid Five Most Underpaid Initial Rankings of the Roster

The players cut were: Chris Banjo (S), Kevin Dorsey (WR), Jake Doughty (LB), John Fullington (OT), Garth Gerhart (C), Alex Gillett (WR), Carlos Gray (DT), Michael Hill (RB), Adrian Hubbard (LB), Jordan McCray (OG), Tanner Miller (S), Justin Perillo (TE), LaDarius Perkins (RB), Luther Robinson (DE), Jumal Rolle (CB), Jeremy Vujnovich (OT), Myles White (WR), and Ryan White (CB).  The players placed on injured reserve were: Aaron Adams (T), Nate Palmer (LB), Jake Stoneburner (TE), and Khyri Thornton (DT). So much for cutting down on injuries this season, the Packers already lost ten players for the regular season before it even started.

Much like I did the lat four years (2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013), here is my first look at The 53 for the 2014 Green Bay Packers along with my thoughts on how each player stacks up in their position group:

QB's (3): Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, and Scott Tolzien

RB's (4): Eddie Lacy, James Starks, John Kuhn, and DuJuan Harris

WR's (5): Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jarett Boykin, Davante Adams, and Jeff Janis

TE's (4): Brandon Bostick, Richard Rodgers, Andrew Quarless, and Ryan Taylor

OL's (8): Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang, David Bakhtiari, Bryan Bulaga, JC Tretter, Derek Sherrod, Corey Linsley, and Lane Taylor

DL's (5): Mike Daniels, Josh Boyd, Datone Jones, Letroy Guion, and Mike Pennel

LB's (11): Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Mike Neal, A.J. Hawk, Brad Jones, Nick Perry, Jamari Lattimore, Andy Mulumba, Sam Barrington, Jayrone Elliott, and Carl Bradford

DB's (10): Sam Shields, Tramon Williams, Micah Hyde, Casey Hayward, Morgan Burnett, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Davon House, Jarrett Bush, Sean Richardson, and Demetri Goodson

ST's (3): Mason Crosby, Brett Goode, Tim Masthay

There were a few things that stood out to me about The 53.  First and foremost, Thompson kept just as many wide receivers as defensive lineman.  I know the Packers are essentially a 3-4 team in name only given that they lined up in the nickel almost 2/3rds of their defensive snaps last year.  Having only five defensive lineman on The 53 means that Neal, Perry, and Peppers better be ready to contribute along the defensive line if the Packers suffer an injury or two to their defensive lineman.

Besides only keeping five defensive lineman on The 53 there were no other real surprises on The 53, which is to be expected given that at the start of training camp I had 35 locks and 15 most likelies projected for The 53.  All 50 of those guys either made The 53 (46 of 50) or were placed on injured reserve (4 of 50).  That meant there were just a handful of jobs actually up for grabs.  The last three guys kept on The 53 were probably Carl Bradford, Demetri Goodson, and Lane Taylor and the last three guys cut were probably Chris Banjo, Jumal Rolle, and Myles White.

In 2010 the Packers kept 26 offensive players (including just two running backs but three fullbacks), 24 defensive players, and 3 special teams players on The 53 to start the season.  Of those 53 guys, just 19 of them (8 offensive, 8 defensive, and 3 special teams) are on The 53 right now.

In 2011 the Packers kept 24 offensive players, 26 defensive players, and 3 special teams players on The 53 to start the season.  Of those 53 guys, just 25 of them (12 offensive, 10 defensive, and 3 special teams) are on The 53 right now.

In 2012 the Packers kept 24 offensive players, 26 defensive players, and 3 special teams players on The 53 to start the season.  Of those 53 guys, just 26 of them (10 offensive, 13 defensive, and 3 special teams) are on The 53 right now.

In 2013 the Packers kept 23 offensive players, 27 defensive players, and 3 special teams players on The 53 to start the season.  Of those 53 guys, just 25 of them (14 offensive, 18 defensive, and 3 special teams) are on The 53 right now.

Much like 2011 and 2012, the Packers kept 24 offensive players, 26 defensive players, and 3 special teams players on The 53 to start the 2014 NFL season.

If I had to pick a ten player practice squad based solely on the players cut by the Packers today I would pick the following guys: Chris Banjo (S), Kevin Dorsey (WR), Garth Gerhart (C), Carlos Gray (DT), Michael Hill (RB), Adrian Hubbard (LB), Justin Perillo (TE), Luther Robinson (DE), Jumal Rolle (CB), and Myles White (WR).  Make sure to check back tomorrow for my analysis of the players that Thompson actually signs to the ten player practice squad.