The 15 - So Far, So Good

At the start of the season I was more bullish on the 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks than most given that almost everyone outside of the organization viewed the Bucks as a lock for the lottery and most thought they would be one of the five worst teams in the NBA while I viewed them as a playoff team with an outside chance at the 5th or 6th seed.  With the Bucks currently 10-8 in the underwhelming Eastern Conference you would think I would be even more confident about my preseason pick but I am not quite ready to say I told you so given that most of their wins are over lackluster teams.  Of the 10 wins so far this season, their only impressive wins were at home over the Memphis Grizzlies and on the road over the Miami Heat.  There is no doubt that long-term the Bucks will only go as far as The Greek Freak and Jabari Parker take them but the more interesting thing is that some of the guys that I had low expectations for going into this season performed much better so far than I expected.  Here are my updated rankings to The 15:

5) Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 6): I've always been a fan of Ilysova's game, which is why I've affectionately referred to him as The Poor Man's Dirk but even in my wildest dreams I would not have predicted that Ilyasova would lead the team in PER at 18.6.  What makes that number even more impressive for Ilyasova is that he is an offense first stretch power forward that doesn't pass or rebound all that well so he can't even pad his PER with cheap rebounds or assists.  The reason that Ilyasova has such a high PER is that he is actually shooting over .500 (currently .503) from the field and .333 on three-pointers so far this season.  I am under no grand illusions that Ilyasova will turn into an All-Star but we are starting to see him thrive on the offensive end as his defensive liabilities are sufficiently covered up by all the other long/athletic guys on The 15.  Given how well Ilyasova played so far this season, it might make sense to sell high on him sooner rather than later.

The 15 2.0 for 2014-15

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 1) 2. Jabari Parker (SF/PF, LR 2) 3. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 3) 4. John Henson (PF/C, LR 4) 5. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 6) 6. Larry Sanders (C, LR 5) 7. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 11) 8. Jared Dudley (SG/SF, LR 9) 9. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 7) 10. Kendall Marshall (PG, LR 12) 11. Nate Wolters (PG, LR 8) 12. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG, LR 10) 13. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 13) 14. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF, LR 14) 15. Damien Inglis (SF, LR 15)

7) O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 11): The conventional wisdom is that when professional athletes are in the last year of their contract they have an incentive to preform to earn a contract extension but once they sign that extension their incentives can go out the window so they don't perform as well in the first season of their new deal.  Last off-season Mayo signed a three-year, $24 million contract and did just that.  The season got off to a brutal start for Mayo when he showed up out of shape and barely even played himself into shape by the end of the season.  I am not sure whether Mayo is preparing for his contract year next year but this season he not only showed up in shape but it looks like he worked on his game on both ends of the floor.  Suffice to say, Mayo's improvement is the biggest surprise on The 15 so far this season given that I would have traded Mayo for a bag of balls before the start of the season. Instead Mayo started a couple games recently and is currently 4th of the team in scoring, averaging 10.8 points per game.  Much like Ilyasova, I am torn on whether the Bucks should try to trade Mayo now to sell high on him.  Given all the back court depth on The 15, I would actually be more inclined to move Mayo than Ilyasova.

15) Damien Inglis (SF, LR 15): The Bucks are currently under the salary cap so they are NOT able to use the Disable Player Exception on Inglis even though he might not play for the Bucks this season.  I mention this because I've long taken issue with the fact that NBA does NOT employ a disabled list like they do in baseball.  Inglis is a great candidate since he is out with a broken foot until at least early 2015.  Although only 12 players can dress for each game, the Bucks were recently without Zaza Pachulia's services too, which meant the Bucks only had 12 healthy guys.  If anyone else got hurt that would leave the Bucks short.  I've long thought that NBA teams should be able to temporarily go above The 15 when they suffer a number of injuries, the question is when will the NBA actually do something about it?

Monday, December 15, 2014 is an important day on the NBA calendar because that is the first day that a player signed on or before Monday, September 15, 2014 can be traded.  It should actually officially be called NBA General Manger Buyer's Remorse Day.  We might even be able to get it sponsored by Christal or some other luxury good that NBA players blow money on once they sign a lucrative contract extension.  I will do my best to cobble together a couple realistic trades for Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond for NBA General Manager Buyer's Remorse Day.  I presume that advice will be ignored but if Hammond does make any moves on or before then, make sure to check back in this space for full coverage.

The 15 - In Giannis We Trust

Welcome to the 4th and final installment of The 15 for the 2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks.  The 2013-14 season for the Milwaukee Bucks mercifully came to an end following their franchise record 67th loss of the season 111-103 to the Atlanta Hawks at home.  This season has been such a bust that I actually enjoyed my post about how Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond should approach the 2014 NBA Trade Deadline as well as a look at the trade that Hammond actually made much more than my traditional The 15 posts.  If you are a glutton for punishment and missed my first three, make sure to check them out: Walking Wounded..., Forever Young...May You Stay...Forever Young, and All-Star Break Thoughts.

Besides the end of the 2013-14 season, today marks a huge changing of the guard as Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry purchased the Bucks from long-time owner Herb Kohl.  Given that the Bucks have been stuck in neutral for almost a decade, a change in ownership was way overdue.  I am sure Kohl is a nice man but his decree that the Bucks "stay relevant", meaning teeter on the playoff/lottery bubble, is short-sided.  All sports fans but especially NBA fans want a winner, not one with a 0.00001% chance of winning an NBA title.

There are bound to be some bumps in the road over the next year as the new owners exert their influence over the franchise.  Thus if I was general manager John Hammond or head coach Larry Drew, I would make sure that I am checking around the league in case the ownership group decides to blow things up.  We will have months to speculate on how the new ownership group should proceed.  For now, I am going to do my best to put the painful 2013-14 season for the Bucks in the books.

Since I am sure most of you tuned the Bucks out a long time ago, let me quickly catch you up.  The youth movement is in full effect.  Going into the off-season last year it was clear that the Bucks were going through some type of re-build, which is why I thought it made much more sense to hire a lesser known first time head coach instead of a re-tread head coach like Larry Drew.  Thankfully by the end of the season Drew finally realized he had to play the young guys, given that the Bucks were going to lose anyways, too bad he didn't realize that months earlier so that some of the young guys could have more game in-game repetitions under their belt going into next season.

Well with all of that uplifting background out of the way, here are my final rankings of The 15 for the abysmal and injured 2013-14 Bucks:

The 15

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 1) 2. John Henson (PF/C, LR 2) 3. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 3) 4. Larry Sanders (C, LR 5) 5. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 4) 6. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 6) 7. Nate Wolters (PG, LR 7) 8. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR  10) 9. Miroslav Raduljica (C, LR 11) 10. Chris Wright (SF, N/A) 11. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 13) 12. Carlos Delfino (SG/SF, LR 15) 13. Ramon Sessions (PG, LR N/A) 14. Jeff Adrien (SF, N/A) 15. Ekpe Udoh (PF, LR 14)

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 1): Right now The Greek Freak is the only true franchise player on The 15 with a legitimate shot to make an All-NBA Team, which makes him a no-brainer for the top spot on The 15.  Sure The Greek Freak only posted a 10.8 PER in his rookie season but there were a million endearing moments in The Greek Freek's rookie year on the court (a block followed by a crafty assist & a block followed by a great dunk) and off the court (impressive soccer goal & anecdote about running to a game after sending money to his family). There is no question that the Bucks bought low on The Greek Freak when they drafted him with the 14th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft.  The question is whether the Bucks can surround The Greek Freak with another franchise player from the 2014 NBA Draft to give the Bucks a duo worth paying to watch for the first time in almost a decade.

5. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 4): The Poor Man's Dirk turned into the Homeless Man's Dirk this season.  Thankfully Ilyasova has a little fire in his belly, which was evidenced by the fact that Ilyasova punched Sacramento Kings forward Reggie Evans in the stomach.  Unfortunately an ankle injury cut Ilyasova's most forgettable season besides his rookie year with the team short.  The Bucks still owe Ilyasova $7.9 million each of the next two seasons while 2016-17 is essentially a team option since only $400,000 of his $8.4 million salary is guaranteed for that season.  I am a total Ilyasova apologist evne after last season. Sure Ilyasova struggles defensively but with the quality defenders that the Bucks are amassing, in Ilyasova the Bucks have a quality offensive option that is slightly overpaid next season that worst case turns into a great expiring contract the following season.

8. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR  10): I was not a fan of the Mayo signing last off-season, which was even before Mayo reported overweight and ambled through the season.  At times Mayo can score at will, which makes him enticing and frustrating all at once given that he only shows his upside in short spurts as opposed to sustained periods of time.  The Bucks need to decide if Mayo is redeemable, otherwise they are going to hide him all next season until he becomes an enticing expiring contract following the 2015-16 season.  The Mayo contract is just the kind of middle-class NBA contract that the Bucks need to avoid.  I know that the Bucks cannot attract marque free agents.  Instead of overpaying average players, they would be much better off playing out the string with guys signed to cheaper, non-guaranteed deals.

10. Chris Wright (SF, N/A): The Bucks gave auditions during the second half of the season to three guys (small forward Tony Mitchell, shooting guard D.J. Stephens, and small forward Chris Wright) on 10-day contracts.  At first blush, Mitchell looks like the best of the bunch given that he posted an insane 31 PER but keep in mind he only played 10 minutes for the Bucks.  Selfishly I like Wright the most because of how exciting of a player he was at the University of Dayton, which is my Father In-Law's favorite sports team.  Leaving my family bias aside, when I watched Wright in college, I thought he would be a late first round pick.  Wright ultimately went undrafted in the 2011 NBA Draft but still appeared in 24 games for the Golden State Warriors in the 2011-12 NBA season.  Wright went through training camp for both the 2012-13 and 2013-14 NBA seasons but failed to make The 15 for an NBA team to start either of those seasons.  In each of those seasons Wright excelled in the NBA D-League though.  This season the Bucks finally took notice and added Wright to The 15 on a couple 10-day contracts that helped him earn a a multi-year contract with a minuscule signing bonus.  Depending on how the off-season goes, Wright's spot on The 15 is tenuous given that his contract is essentially non-guaranteed.  I keep getting flashes on his athleticism in college as I write this so I am convinced more than ever that if the Bucks keep Write on The 15 next season they are buying low on a guy that could be the 9th or 10th guy on The 15 next season.

One final note, take the rankings of Sessions, Adrien, and Udoh with a grain of salt because their rankings are hurt by their contract situation.  Sessions and Adriens are set to become unrestricted free agents, which drops their value dramatically while Udoh is set to become a restricted free agent.  Udoh has been underwhelming the last couple seasons so no need to discuss him any further.  Unlike Udoh, on talent alone, Sessions and Adriens look like viable NBA players but my guess is that Sessions will be too expensive for the Bucks while Adriens will lose out to the glut of front-court players the Bucks already have on The 15.

Thankfully the Bucks will be able to add another potential franchise player early in the 2014 NBA Draft, which will drastically improve The 15 for the 2014-15 season, so make sure to check back for my detailed thoughts on how the Bucks should proceed to improve The 15 to make next season.

Building The 15 - Bucks Off-Season So Far...

Apparently Milwaukee Bucks owner Herb Kohl mandated that the Bucks "stay relevant" every year.  There are many definitions but being a borderline playoff team with a slim chance of contending for a divisional title is far from relevant in my mind.  Instead I was hoping with all the potential roster turnover this off-season that it would allow Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond to bottom out as I advised at the start of the off-season despite Kohl's mandate.

As I said in my review of the 2013 NBA Draft for the Bucks, I generally liked how Hammond handled the draft because it looked like he veered from his boss mandated approach of just trying to stay relevant.

Unfortunately the five moves Hammond made since the draft show that he is continuing to make short-sided, expensive moves that will not help the Bucks long-term.  I rate four of the five moves Hammond made so far this off-season as mediocre to highly questionable, let's look at each one though (worst to best):

#5) Signed center Zaza Pachulia to a three-year, $15 million deal.  The Bucks were already stacked in the front court with Ersan Ilyasova, John Henson, Larry Sanders, Ekpe Udoh, Drew Gooden, and Gustavo Ayon.  The aforementioned group gives the Bucks three NBA starters for only two spots (Ilyasova, Henson, and Sanders), two nice role players (Udoh and Ayon), and a guy that should be amnestied (Gooden).  The Bucks have some decisions to make on extending Sanders and Udoh but now they've committed $5 million a year to a nice backup center, which is 50% too much for a guy that will turn 30 years old next season.

#4) Signed shooting guard O.J. Mayo to a three-year, $24 million deal.  Last season Mayo put up huge numbers for the Dallas Mavericks (averaged 15.3 points, 4.4 assists, & 3.5 rebounds over 35.5 minutes per game) as he was potentially entering free agency.  Mayo exercised his early termination option to void his $4.2 player option.  This feels a little bit like what John Salmons did for the Bucks a few years back en route to signing a ridiculous five-year, $39 million extension with the Bucks.  Things could be worse.  Former starting shooting guard Monta Ellis turned down what amounted to a three-year, $36 million deal earlier this off-season so at least that deal is not on the books.  The Mayo contract is much more palatable than the Salmons or purported Ellis extension, but it is still an overpay by Hammond.

#3) Traded small forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute aka "The Prince" to the Sacramento Kings for two future second round draft picks.  Very few wing players are able to guard shooting guards just as well as they guard power forwards like The Prince can.  I get that The Prince is below average on the offensive end of the court (averaged just 6.9 points per game for his career) and missed a bunch of games the last two seasons (39 games in 2011-12 and 24 in 2012-13) but his defensive skills alone made The Prince my 6th most valuable player on the roster at the end of last season.  Add in that The Prince has a chance to develop a three-point shot over the next few seasons and he has a chance to be Tony Allen 2.0, which makes him a bargain at $9 million over the next two seasons.  I know it seems inconsistent for me to say that I am fine paying The Prince $4.5 million a year for the next two years after killing the Bucks for paying Pachulia and Mayo as discussed above but there should always be a roster spot for a defensive freak The Prince.  There is no question that The Prince has been one of my favorite Bucks of the last decade.  Leaving my love for The Prince aside, the fact that the Bucks could not wrestle a first rounder with some lottery protections instead of two second rounders makes me less a fan of this deal.

#2) Traded shooting guard J.J. Redick to the Los Angeles Clipper for two future second round draft picks.  The Bucks got a second round pick from the Phoenix Suns and Clippers in this deal.  Somehow a bunch of really quality players were traded (Eric Bledsoe, Jared Dudley, and Redick) but the Bucks only ended up with draft picks.  I guess getting something for Redick is better that nothing since he was not going to re-sign with the Bucks but the only way the Clippers could get Redick was via a sign-and-trade so I wish the Bucks would have held out for a first round pick from the Clippers instead of a second rounder.  People keep killing the Bucks for turning Tobias Harris into two months of Redick.  That was a bad deal for sure but not nearly as bad as The Ray Allen Heist.  Plus let me reiterate my thoughts on Harris.  Despite putting up big numbers after joining the Magic last season I still think there is a much better chance that Harris becomes a good stats/bad team guy than a franchise player.   In exchange for The Prince and Redick the Bucks added four future second round picks between 2014 and 2018.  Before we get too excited, the odds of the Bucks wasting those picks like they did in the second round of the 2010 NBA Draft are much higher than them nabbing another Micheal Redd in the second round.

#1) Signed shooting guard/small forward Carlos Delfino to a two-year, $6 million deal. I didn't rank this the best move just because this is what I specifically advised Hammond to do in my free agent shopping guide for him.  I ranked it the highest because the Bucks are much better off signing short-term deals for smaller amounts while hoarding cap space instead of overpaying average NBA players.

I felt the need to break down each deal but the NBA can be summed up pretty concisely because it is a star driven league.  It is nearly impossible to acquire a Top 20 player via free agency unless you are one of the top NBA franchises in a large media market (Heat, Knicks, or Lakers) so signing shorter, cheaper deals like the Delfino contract makes way more sense for small market teams like the Bucks than overpaying decent NBA players like Pachulia or Mayo.  I get that Kohl thinks the Bucks need to stay relevant but it is high time that he changes his definition of relevant.  Instead let the Bucks bottom out and build for the long-term so the Bucks can finally contend for an NBA title aka be relevant.