The 15 - Super Bowl Diversion Thanks to Rampant Roster Turnover

I figured I would run my monthly look at The 15 on Super Bowl Sunday as a nice diversion for Cheesehead sports fans like me that are probably still reeling from the improbable loss the Green Bay Packers suffered in the NFC Championship Game against the Seattle Seahawks.  In much more positive Cheesehead sports related developments, it is official that the 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks are not only inching towards becoming a lock for the NBA playoffs but besides the Atlanta Hawks they are arguably the best story in the NBA right now.  The Bucks won four of their last five games (only loss was a close one on the road the San Antonio Spurs) to close out the month of January with a record of 25-22.  This is all coming as The 15 is suddenly in major flux.  I thought the biggest shuffle to the minutes on The 15 was going to be filling the 29.5 minutes per game from the fallout of rookie small forward Jabari Parker's torn ACL.  It turns out that was just the start of not only a churn in the minutes on The 15 but also the members of The 15.  Keep in mind that The 15 contained 15 guaranteed contracts at the start of the season when Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond guaranteed backup point guard Kendall Marshall's contract two and a half months early than he needed to, which loomed large on the roster decisions that I am about to discuss.  Here are my updated thoughts on The 15:

2) Brandon Knight (PG, LR 3): I know this seems borderline crazy to put Knight ahead of rookie small forward Jabari Parker but I did this for two reasons.  One, Parker is out for the season with a knee injury so that hurts his trade value even though it seems like his ceiling is potentially limitless.  Two, Knight is putting up a very impressive 18.4 PER so far this season.  I know that Knight is going to be a restricted free agent this summer and could be a borderline max contract guy but the Bucks hold the cards for how they want to handle Knight going forward so the better Knight plays, the more he is going to cost the Bucks.  The real question that I do not quite know the answer to yet is whether Knight is truly evolving as a player or if Jason Kidd is really a much better NBA coach than I am thought he could ever be.  Only time will tell but so far the results are impressive.

The 15 4.0 for 2014-15

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 1) 2. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 3) 3. Jabari Parker (SF/PF, LR 2) 4. John Henson (PF/C, LR 4) 5. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 6) 6. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 7) 7. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 5) 8. Jared Dudley (SG/SF, LR 8) 9. Kendall Marshall (PG, LR 10) 10. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 11) 11. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG, LR 12) 12. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF, LR 14) 13. Damien Inglis (SF, LR 15) 14. Kenyon Martin (PF, N/R) 15. Jorge Gutierrez (PG, N/R)

Suspended

Larry Sanders

Cut

Nate Wolters (PG)

4) John Henson (PF/C, LR 4): My favorite full-time NBA writer is currently Zach Lowe from Grantland.com.  Lowe's boss Bill Simmons is close but he is NOT a full-time NBA writer, which gives Zach the nod.  Leaving my parsing of Grantland's content aside, Lowe had a great post on The Arrival of John Henson.  I am not sure I can add anything more to what Lowe wrote about Henson on the court.  Off the court though, we now officially know that Henson is a real building block for the Bucks.  The questions is how much will that building block cost.  My guess is in the $10 to $12 million per year range, which seems awfully expensive until you realize the Bucks signed currently suspended center Larry Sanders to a four-year, $44 million contract for his defense alone.  While Henson might not be quite as good defensively as Sanders yet but there is no question that Henson is much more polished offensively than Sanders, which might push Henson's price even higher when he is a restricted free agent following the 2015-15 NBA season.

14) Kenyon Martin (PF, N/R): The Bucks waived young, promising point guard Nate Wolters to clear a roster spot for over-the-hill power forward Kenyon Martin.  After the Bucks signed Martin to a couple 10-day contracts, they signed him for the rest of the season even though he has contributed just 1.6 points per game while averaging only 8.5 minutes a game in his 10 appearances.  I know Kidd and Martin are former teammates but that does NOT qualify the 37 year old Martin for a spot on The 15 over Wolters despite the lack of front-court depth.  Let's not forget that Martin played just 50 games over the last two seasons for the New York Knicks so it is not like the Bucks found this diamond in the rough.  I thought Kidd would stick to coaching and Hammond would stick to Building The 15 but this move makes me think Kidd is slowly taking over the front office too, which is what initially worried me when the Bucks traded for Kidd.

15) Jorge Gutierrez (PG, N/R): Just to add insult to injury, literally.  The Bucks lost promising backup point guard Kendall Marshall to a torn ACL when they played the Knicks on January 15th in London.  Let's not forget that the Bucks cut Wolters less than a week before that game to make way for Martin.  Since the NBA foolishly does NOT employ an injured reserve list that meant the Bucks needed to add another point guard so they added another player with ties to Kidd (played for the Nets last year when Kidd was the coach).  Again, it begs the question, is Hammond or Kidd running the front office?  Either way, it seems like Kidd didn't like Wolters very much.  I am not sure why but I can tell you that 99 our of 100 NBA personnel people would rather have Wolters than Gutierrez sadly Kidd, I mean Hammond, is that one guy.

Make sure to check back in a couple weeks for my 6th annual NBA Trade Deadline advice post for Hammond and/or Kidd depending on which one is making the roster decisions at that point.

The 15 - Even Without Parker the Bucks Continue to Win

In my first two iterations of The 15 this year I was much more bullish on the 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks than most.  At the start of the season I deemed them a playoff worthy team and I did NOT back down from that in my next look at the team I just hedged by saying that I wanted to see the Bucks beat some better teams before we made them a playoff lock.  Since that post it has been the best of times and the worst of times for the Bucks all in one month.  The worst of times was December 15, 2014 but NOT for the reasons that I mentioned in my inaugural NBA General Manager's Buyers Remorse Day post.  Instead that day rookie small forward Jabari Parker tore his ACL to end his promising rookie season in a road win over the Phoenix Suns thanks to a crazy bank shot by shooting guard/small forward Khris Middleton.  The Bucks could have packed it in for the season but they showed some heart going 4-4 over their next games to finish the calendar year 2014 with a 17-16 record, which is two more wins then they had all last season.  Here are my updated rankings to The 15:

2) Jabari Parker (SF/PF, LR 2): When Bucks general manager John Hammond drafted Parker with the second pick in the 2014 NBA Draft it seemed like the ultimate no-lose pick.  If the 1st pick in the draft Andrew Wiggins turns out to be a stud that is NOT on Hammond given that Wiggins and Parker were the consensus top two picks in the draft.  My hope is that this is NOT a Marvin Williams situation where it turns out that some of the guys taken after Parker (Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart, etc.) show that there should have been more thought about whether there were other guys worth going in the Top 2 of the draft.  When Parker got hurt he was second on the Bucks in points per game (12.3) and minutes (29.5) but that should not be a surprise since he looked like an NBA-ready scorer during his freshman season at Duke.  What was a pleasant surprise is that Parker was at least serviceable on defense, which is much more than the Bucks thought they were getting in Parker's rookie year given how much he struggled defensively during his lone college season.  I wish Parker a speedy recovery and safe recovery.  No need to rush Parker back form such a serious injury.  I would rather have Parker sit out the first part of the 2015-16 season on the off-chance that it helps him not only decrease the chances of him suffering another catastrophic knee injury but it also allows him to come back at full-speed instead of playing 20 games at 75% to start the season because the Bucks need to look at Parker as a 15 year asset even if he decides to leave after five years.  If you question that theory, ask the Chicago Bulls how they feel about Derrick Rose re-injuring his knee a second time.

The 15 3.0 for 2014-15

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 1) 2. Jabari Parker (SF/PF, LR 2) 3. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 3) 4. John Henson (PF/C, LR 4) 5. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 5) 6. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 7) 7. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 9) 8. Jared Dudley (SG/SF, LR 8) 9. Larry Sanders (C, LR 6) 10. Kendall Marshall (PG, LR 10) 11. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 13) 12. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG, LR 12) 13. Nate Wolters (PG, LR 11) 14. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF, LR 14) 15. Damien Inglis (SF, LR 15)

9) Larry Sanders (C, LR 6): The Bucks have been without Sanders's services for the last four games due to "illness".  I put that in quotes because Larry Sanders is entering the Tyson Zone (copyright Bill Simmons).  We know that off the court Sanders enjoys fighting and smoking pot.  I am not judging, in fact I think one of those two things should be legal.  Unfortunately for Sanders he plays in a league where neither are legal and there are consequences for both so it will be interesting to see if he ever plays for the Bucks again.  In my my first look at The 15 this season I said this season was going to be a crossroads for Sanders and clearly he is getting to the end of the road.  At this point I am not sure the Bucks could trade him for anything so I might have him ranked too high at 9 but whenever I try to move him further down I get flashes of him turning into a more offensively polished Ben Wallace and pound my head against the keyboard in disappointment at how wrong things have gone for Sanders over the last couple seasons.

11) Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 13): It takes a big man to admit mistakes and I might finally be coming around on Pachulia.  Don't get me wrong, I still stand by my assertion that he is overpaid and was one of the worst moves two off-seasons ago.  I am not sure how much Gustavo Ayon signed for with Real Madrid but I know it is less than Pachulia is making.  So far this doesn't sound like much of a mea culpa but I am getting there.  Certain positions in professional sports are more expensive to fill than you think they should be.  Take backup catcher, because of service time alone most backup catchers make upwards of $1 million a year for catching every 5th day.  That seems like way too much money for their contributions on the field but that doesn't take into account all the intangible things they are doing with the starting catcher and pitchers when they are not in the game.  The same might be true for backup centers too.  I don't think Hammond ever thought Pachulia would be the de facto starting center given how highly (great pun huh) they thought of Sanders but even given all of the issues with Sanders off the court but Pachulia has been very effective in that role.  It turns out that skill set costs a few million more on the open market than I thought but it is has been indispensable for the Bucks this season.

I hope everyone is having a good start to 2015.  Make sure to check back at the end of January for my thoughts on The 15, which will form the basis for my annual NBA Trade Deadline advice post for Hammond in mid-February.

The 15 - So Far, So Good

At the start of the season I was more bullish on the 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks than most given that almost everyone outside of the organization viewed the Bucks as a lock for the lottery and most thought they would be one of the five worst teams in the NBA while I viewed them as a playoff team with an outside chance at the 5th or 6th seed.  With the Bucks currently 10-8 in the underwhelming Eastern Conference you would think I would be even more confident about my preseason pick but I am not quite ready to say I told you so given that most of their wins are over lackluster teams.  Of the 10 wins so far this season, their only impressive wins were at home over the Memphis Grizzlies and on the road over the Miami Heat.  There is no doubt that long-term the Bucks will only go as far as The Greek Freak and Jabari Parker take them but the more interesting thing is that some of the guys that I had low expectations for going into this season performed much better so far than I expected.  Here are my updated rankings to The 15:

5) Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 6): I've always been a fan of Ilysova's game, which is why I've affectionately referred to him as The Poor Man's Dirk but even in my wildest dreams I would not have predicted that Ilyasova would lead the team in PER at 18.6.  What makes that number even more impressive for Ilyasova is that he is an offense first stretch power forward that doesn't pass or rebound all that well so he can't even pad his PER with cheap rebounds or assists.  The reason that Ilyasova has such a high PER is that he is actually shooting over .500 (currently .503) from the field and .333 on three-pointers so far this season.  I am under no grand illusions that Ilyasova will turn into an All-Star but we are starting to see him thrive on the offensive end as his defensive liabilities are sufficiently covered up by all the other long/athletic guys on The 15.  Given how well Ilyasova played so far this season, it might make sense to sell high on him sooner rather than later.

The 15 2.0 for 2014-15

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 1) 2. Jabari Parker (SF/PF, LR 2) 3. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 3) 4. John Henson (PF/C, LR 4) 5. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 6) 6. Larry Sanders (C, LR 5) 7. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 11) 8. Jared Dudley (SG/SF, LR 9) 9. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 7) 10. Kendall Marshall (PG, LR 12) 11. Nate Wolters (PG, LR 8) 12. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG, LR 10) 13. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 13) 14. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF, LR 14) 15. Damien Inglis (SF, LR 15)

7) O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 11): The conventional wisdom is that when professional athletes are in the last year of their contract they have an incentive to preform to earn a contract extension but once they sign that extension their incentives can go out the window so they don't perform as well in the first season of their new deal.  Last off-season Mayo signed a three-year, $24 million contract and did just that.  The season got off to a brutal start for Mayo when he showed up out of shape and barely even played himself into shape by the end of the season.  I am not sure whether Mayo is preparing for his contract year next year but this season he not only showed up in shape but it looks like he worked on his game on both ends of the floor.  Suffice to say, Mayo's improvement is the biggest surprise on The 15 so far this season given that I would have traded Mayo for a bag of balls before the start of the season. Instead Mayo started a couple games recently and is currently 4th of the team in scoring, averaging 10.8 points per game.  Much like Ilyasova, I am torn on whether the Bucks should try to trade Mayo now to sell high on him.  Given all the back court depth on The 15, I would actually be more inclined to move Mayo than Ilyasova.

15) Damien Inglis (SF, LR 15): The Bucks are currently under the salary cap so they are NOT able to use the Disable Player Exception on Inglis even though he might not play for the Bucks this season.  I mention this because I've long taken issue with the fact that NBA does NOT employ a disabled list like they do in baseball.  Inglis is a great candidate since he is out with a broken foot until at least early 2015.  Although only 12 players can dress for each game, the Bucks were recently without Zaza Pachulia's services too, which meant the Bucks only had 12 healthy guys.  If anyone else got hurt that would leave the Bucks short.  I've long thought that NBA teams should be able to temporarily go above The 15 when they suffer a number of injuries, the question is when will the NBA actually do something about it?

Monday, December 15, 2014 is an important day on the NBA calendar because that is the first day that a player signed on or before Monday, September 15, 2014 can be traded.  It should actually officially be called NBA General Manger Buyer's Remorse Day.  We might even be able to get it sponsored by Christal or some other luxury good that NBA players blow money on once they sign a lucrative contract extension.  I will do my best to cobble together a couple realistic trades for Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond for NBA General Manager Buyer's Remorse Day.  I presume that advice will be ignored but if Hammond does make any moves on or before then, make sure to check back in this space for full coverage.

The 15 - What else is there besides Jabari & The Greek Freak?

The 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks start the seasons on the road tonight against the artists formerly known as the Charlotte Bobcats.  Although it is just a season opener on the road, today could go down as one of the most important moments in franchise history given that for the first time in almost a decade there is real hope that the Bucks will actually be relevant at a national level.  With all due respect to long time former Bucks owner Herb Kohl, most of that optimism stems from the fact that the Bucks have new majority owners in Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry along with ton of local minority owners that seem to want to build a long-term NBA title contender, even if that involves some non-playoff growing pains, instead of just being an occasional fringe playoff contender.

We are less than a year into the new ownership group's tenure but the team already looks in great shape given that Bucks general manager John Hammond added two potential franchise players via the last two drafts.  Hammond drafted The Greek Freak with the 15th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft and Jabari Parker with the 2nd pick in the 2014 NBA Draft.  Sure the new ownership group stubbed their toe when they acquired Jason Kidd as their new head coach without involving general manager John Hammond in the process but if that is the biggest misstep of the new ownership group, the Bucks are in good hands.

There are nine guys on The 15 for the Bucks to start the 2014-15 season that were on The 15 at the end of the 2013-14 season: Giannis Antetokounmpo, John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova, Brandon Knight, O.J. Mayo, Khris Middleton, Zaza Pachulia, Larry Sanders, and Nate Wolters.  That means there are six guys from the final 2013-14 team that are no longer with the organization: Jeff Adrien, Carlos Delfino, Miroslav Raduljica, Ramon Sessions, Ekpe Udoh, and Chris Wright.  Hammond replaced those six guys with six other guys via trade (Jared Dudley), free agency (Jerryd Bayless), a waiver claim (Kendall Marshall) and the 2014 NBA Draft (Damien Inglis, Johnny O'Bryant III, and Jabari Parker).  I gave a detailed breakdown of my thoughts all the moves above in late August and I've seen nothing since to change my thoughts other than that I am liking the Dudley trade more and more everyday.

Sure The Greek Freak and Jabari will ultimately determine whether the Bucks actually turn into a perennial playoff contender but there are some other very talented guys on The 15 too so here is my look at a couple of other players on The 15:

3) Brandon Knight (PG): There is a school of thought that unless you have a potential Top 5 point guard (Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, John Wall, or Russell Westbrook) that you do NOT overpay point guards because the difference between the sixth and twenty sixth point guard is not that big.  I have no grand illusions that Knight will turn into the best point guard in the NBA but given his diverse sill set, I do think he is a player worth paying fairly big long-term money.  The question is how much money will Knight command.  Based on last season, it looks like Knight could be a franchise point guard with a decent chance to be a Top 10 point guard.  Worst-case scenario, Knight is a combo guard that is a 3rd or 4th option on a really good playoff team.  Knight can become a restricted free agent this off-season.  In terms of potential comps for Knight's extension, a couple of good comps on the low end are Jeff Teague's four-year, $32 million contract and Mike Conley's five-year, $40 million contract.  A couple of good comparisons on the high end are Jrue Holliday's four-year, $41 million contract and Ty Lawson's four-year, $48 million contract.  Since I am not related the Knight, I would much rather see the Bucks get Knight signed to a deal like Teague's or Conley's but if Knight performs well this season I could see him pushing for a much more expensive extension and possibly even a max deal.  Yeah, you read that correctly that Knight might be a max player, especially given the upcoming spike in NBA revenue thanks to their new national television contract, which will result in a huge jump in the salary cap.  Knight bet on himself by not agreeing to long-term extension before the season with the Bucks.  My guess is that the Bucks and Knight ultimately work out a long-term deal in the off-season, the question is whether Knight has a below average season to hurt his market value or a great season to push his value into the max stratosphere.

The 15

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF) 2. Jabari Parker (SF/PF) 3. Brandon Knight (PG) 4. John Henson (PF/C) 5. Larry Sanders (C) 6. Ersan Ilyasova (PF) 7. Khris Middleton (SF) 8. Nate Wolters (PG) 9. Jared Dudley (SG/SF) 10. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG) 11. O.J. Mayo (SG) 12. Kendall Marshall (PG) 13. Zaza Pachulia (C) 14. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF) 15. Damien Inglis (SF)

5) Larry Sanders (C): Speaking of expensive contract extensions, this is the first year of Sanders' four-year, $44 million extension.  Sanders is tied with JaVale McGee as the 16th highest paid center this season. Right now, based on how Sanders fought off the court and played on the court last season, he is no where close to being the 16th best center in the NBA yet the Bucks received a number of calls to see if Sanders was available last off-season.  I don't know what teams were offering but my guess is that teams were trying to buy low on Sanders given how far his stock fell.  Given Sanders's impressive defensive skills and his improving offensive abilities, if he can keep his head on straight he might turn into a steal at $11 million a season.  That or Sanders could continue to get into trouble off the court, which will hamper his growth on the court.  If that happens, Hammond will not only regret that he signed Sanders to an expensive extension but he will be even more disappointed that he double-down when he didn't move sanders when he had the chance.  Hey now Larry, the ball is in your court.

12) Kendall Marshall (PG): I thought it was a no brainer to claim Marshall off waivers from the Los Angeles Lakers given that he would cost the Bucks a mere $915,243 for his services this season.  That seems like a pittance by NBA standards for a backup point guard.  The Bucks decided to guarantee Marshall's contract at the start of the season despite the fact they could have held off till January 10, 2015 to guarantee his contract for this season.  Sure the odds are low that the Bucks would have cut Marshall this season but why not keep the flexibility until early 2015 in case there are a ton of injuries that would necessitate making a move since the Bucks already had 14 guaranteed contracts on The 15 before they guaranteed Marshall's contract.  I guess now The 15 should be called The (Financially) Guaranteed 15.  Given that everyone on The 15 is expendable besides The Greek Freak and Jabari Parker this move seemed borderline ridiculous.  That was until I realized that Marshall’s agent is Alex Saratsis.  I've never heard of Saratsis until today and the only reason that I learned about Saratsis is that he is The Greek Freak's agent so that move was clearly a courtesy by the Bucks to get in the good graces with Saratsis given that the Bucks are going to have potentially franchise altering negotiations with him over the next few years.

I am not a huge fan of season predictions but feel an obligation to make a quick one given that this is a season preview of The 15.  Despite the fact that almost everyone thinks the Bucks are going to be one of the worst teams in the league, I actually think they will fight for the 5th or 6th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  If Hammond makes any moves, make sure to check out my thoughts in this space, otherwise check back in a month when I have my updated rankings for The 15.

Building The 15 - A Quick Look at The 15 for John Hammond or Possibly Jason Kidd Following the 2014 NBA Draft

I planned a short post with advice for how Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond should approach free agency following my review of the 2014 NBA Draft.  With that post in the can Saturday afternoon and ready to run first thing Monday as a little diversion for the start of the work week, news broke late Saturday night that the Bucks and Brooklyn Nets were engaged in serious discussions regarding compensation for the Nets to let current head coach Jason Kidd out of the last three years of the four-year, $10.5 million contract that he signed with the Nets before last season.  Apparently this stemmed from the fact that Kidd approached Nets ownership about an expanded front-office role that included say in roster moves but was rebuffed, which lead Kidd to look for a new employer.

Kidd experienced tons of turmoil as coach of the Nets, which was his first season moving from playing to coaching.  Sure the Nets had an over-priced and older but star drive roster last season but that was a big part of the reason the Nets hired Kidd because he was supposed to handle his "peers" given that he actually played in the NBA for the New York Knicks for the 2012-13 season.  Early in the season the Nets struggled but instead of shouldering the blame, Kidd tried to place blame elsewhere starting with lead assistant coach Lawrence Frank.  Despite being Kidd's hand-picked lead assistant, a little over a month into the season, Kidd made Frank the fall guy when he removed Frank from the bench to instead focus on scouting despite being reportedly the highest paid assistant coach (six-years, $6 million) in the NBA last season.

Prior to this Kidd debacle, the new Bucks co-owners Marc Lasry and Wesley Edens have handled everything perfectly since they bought the Bucks from Herb Kohl at the end of last season their first official act was to send Mallory Edens as the team representative to the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery, which made for one of the most awkward Twitter situations of 2014 as grown men digitally drooled over Edens.  Although Edens did not deliver the first pick despite the fact that the Bucks had the worst record in the NBA, she will go down as the most memorable thing from the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery.

Even though the Bucks posted their worst record in franchise history, the new ownership group along with the second pick in the 2014 NBA Draft gave fans hope that things could turnaround fast next year.  Instead of making flashy moves, the new ownership group went on a grassroots tour where they interacted with fans in-person and online.  The new ownership group openly discussed a new arena but stressed the need to improve The 15.  Instead of replacing coaches or members of the front-office, the new ownership group said they were going to give each group a season to keep their respective jobs.  Trust me, I did not like when Hammond hired Larry Drew as head coach last off-season but do believe Drew and Hammond should have at least one more season.  It looks like Hammond will get another season but I would he shocked if Drew is employed by the Bucks at the end of the week.

Apparently second round pick(s) are being discussed as compensation for Kidd.  Let's not confuse Kidd with the second coming of Phil Jackson.  I am not sure what Kidd has done so far since shifting from playing to coaching to prove that he is a even a quality head coach let alone a guy worthy of being a coach with say over personnel decisions too.  Let's see him handle just coaching before giving him front-office responsibilities too.  Thankfully the current reports are that the Bucks envision Kidd solely as a coach.

Before the 2014 NBA Draft I advised Hammond how to approach restricted (power forward Ekpe Udoh) and unrestricted (power forward Jeff Adrien and combo guard Ramon Sessions) free agents.  Following the draft, my advice remains essentially the same, especially if Hammond and/or Kidd can somehow how get teams to take on some of the bloated contracts on The 15.  Following the 2014 NBA Draft, here is my current depth chart for The 15:

Point Guard (1): Brandon Knight

Shooting Guard (3): Nate Wolters, O.J. Mayo, and Carlos Delfino

Small Forward (4): Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Damien Inglis, and Chris Wright

Power Forward (4): John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova, Khris Middleton, and Johnny O'Bryant III

Center (3): Larry Sanders, Zaza Pachulia, and Miroslav Raduljica

As you can see above, the Bucks already have 15 guys projected to be under contract for next season once they sign their three draft picks so that leaves the Bucks without any real open roster spots.  Thankfully the Bucks have some guys currently on The 15 like Wright and Radulijca with either a low cap number or only a partially guaranteed contract so that gives the Bucks some wiggle room.  Still Hammond's roster construction flies in the face of my theory of leaving the last three spots on The 15 for low-priced, non-guaranteed contracts that that you can churn on a weekly basis, if necessary.  Given that The 15 is currently front-court heavy, I would be shocked if the Bucks did NOT add at least one ball handler given that they are light at that position despite having a number of point forwards on The 15.

In order to have real wiggle room to actually sign free agents though, the Bucks would need to offload some of their expensive contracts without giving up draft picks or taking on more long-term money.  There are four candidates to move: Mayo, Ilyasova, Sanders, and Pachulia.  Last season teams tried to buy low on Ilyasova and Sanders but I would hold onto those guys because I see them being the third or fourth best player on a playoff contender when healthy and with their head screwed on straight.  That means I would trade Mayo's or Pachulia's bloated contracts, pun in the case of Mayo, in a heartbeat.  Unfortunately I see both of those as a long-shot without taking on equally horrible contracts.

I am not sure what the Bucks would do with the salary cap space anyhow whether the Bucks have Kidd in the fold or not because marque free agents are NOT interested in signing with the Bucks since thy do not yet have a Top 10 NBA player and the team plays in Milwaukee.  Thus the Bucks need to lure free agents by drafting superstars that entice free agents.  Thankfully there is hope on that front with The Greek Freak and Parker on The 15.  Right now that is hope more than production but if The Greek Freak and Parker backup their limitless potential with production, the Bucks might actually have a shot to sign marquee free agents.

I am not a fan of giving the Nets anything more than a bag of balls for Kidd's service as a coach and/or member of the front office.  Plus it will be super awkward to keep Drew as head coach if the Bucks "miss-out" on Kidd.  There is no way that the Bucks are landing one of the marquee free agents this off-season like LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony so my advice is to pass on Kidd and let the high-end market settle out before making a single free agent contract offer.  At that point, the Bucks should bottom feed to improve the bottom third of The 15 with rotational players on the cheap.  If any of those guys turn out to be worth having long-term, great.  If not, at least the Bucks are building a cost-effective, flexible roster.  Unfortunately I am not in charge so I see Kidd becoming a member of the Bucks by the end of the week.  Either way, it will be interesting to see how the next few days play out.

Building The 15 - 2014 Milwaukee Bucks Draft Picks

This was my fourth year doing a "mock" first round NBA Draft (2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014) and my fifth year reviewing Milwaukee Bucks general manger John Hammond's performance in the actual draft (2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013).

Usually there are a ton of trades in the first round of the NBA Draft, which makes it really hard to marry pick, player, and team correctly.  True to form, there were a ton of trades in the first round of the 2014 NBA Draft.  I only nailed players and team for the first two picks out of 30 in the first round of the 2014 NBA Draft: Cleveland Cavaliers took Andrew Wiggins (SG, Kansas) and the Bucks took Jabari Parker (SF, Duke).

Although that seems like I did a horrible job, for the second year in a row I correctly predicted 24 out of 30 players* that went in the first round of the draft.  I actually should have predicted 25 but somehow inexplicably left Indiana power forward Noah Vonleh out of my first round mock draft.  I am not as high on Vonleh as others but had him as the 9th or 10th best prospect in the draft so it was merely a brain fart that I somehow forgot to include him in my mock draft.  Of the 6 guys** that I thought should go in the first round, all but two went by the 38th pick and they all were drafted by the 46th pick.

Here is a full breakdown of the four players that the Milwaukee Bucks drafted in the 2014 NBA Draft:

1st Round (2nd Overall): Jabari ("The Franchise") Parker
Position: Small Forward
Age: 19
Birth date: March 15, 1994
Birthplace: Chicago, IL
School: Duke
Class: Freshman
Height: 6'8"
Weight: 241 lbs
Reach: 8'8"
Wingspan: 7'0"
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Super skilled wing, can score from anywhere on the floor, elite basketball instincts and IQ, excellent passer, good ball handler for his size, good rebounder, high character, and great motor

Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): A good but not elite athlete, can be a liability on defense, can sometimes struggle against long athletic player, and lacks ideal conditioning

Other Possible Picks: Dante Exum (PG, Australia), Joel Embiid (C, Kansas), and Marcus Smart (PG, Oklahoma State)
Twitter: @JabariParker
Tweets:

We know he can score but hope @Bucks can cover up @JabariParker's defensive limitations. #2014nbadraft
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 26, 2014

All things considered, very happy with @JabariParker pick for @Bucks. #2014nbadraft
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 26, 2014

Analysis: My tweets immediately following the pick don't convey how excited I am about the picks for the Bucks.  Teams hope to not pick in the Top 5 regularly but getting a talent like Parker with the second pick is a rarity since he would have been the first pick in the 2013 NBA Draft if he went straight from high school to the NBA.  Plus only three players drafted in the Top 4 since the start of the NBA Lottery in 1985 won an NBA Champion with the team that drafted them.  Two are fairly easy, David Robinson and Tim Duncan as staples of the San Antonio Spurs.  The third is Darko Milicic, which is borderline comical given that the Detroit Pistons won the 2004 NBA Championship despite Darko's services even though they drafted him instead of Carmelo Antony, Chris Bosh, or Dwyane Wade with second pick in the loaded 2003 NBA Draft.

Parker's freshman season at Duke was dissected ad nausea.  There were rumors that Parker had a hurt foot going into the season, which hurt his conditioning so he played heavier than I expect him to play in the NBA.  Even playing heavy, Parker was able to score almost at will last season.  Unfortunately for how well Parker played offensively, he struggled just as much defensively.  There is one hopeful school of thought that if Parker gets in shape, he might actually improve his defense in the NBA.  Even if Parker struggles on the defensive end, let's not forget that the Bucks will most likely start him in the front-court alongside The Greek Freak and Larry Sanders, which will go a long way towards covering up his defensive limitations if he can't improve on that end of the court in the NBA.

Mark my words, if Parker stays in Milwaukee for his entire career he will have his number retired and give the Bucks a legitimate chance to win their first NBA Title since 1971.

2nd Round (31st Overall): Damien ("Musculaire") Inglis
Position: Small Forward
Age:19
Birth date: May 20, 1995
Birthplace: Cayenne, French Guiana
School: N/A
Class:N/A
Height: 6'8"
Weight: 240 lbs
Reach: 9'0"
Wingspan: 7'3"
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Long athletic forward, NBA strength, excellent defender, good rebounder, and strong finisher around the basket
Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Needs to improve his jump shot and a bit of a twiner
Other Possible Picks: K.J. Daniels (SF, Clemson), Cleanthony Early (SF, Wichita State), and Jarnell Stokes (PF, Tennessee)
Twitter: @DamienINGLIS
Tweets:

Nice pick by @spurs to get Anderson but absolutely love the Inglis pick. Will be interesting to compare both in five years. #2014nbadraft
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 27, 2014

After drafting Inglis, if @Bucks somehow still get Glenn Robinson III w/36th pick this will be a franchise changing draft. #2014nbadraft
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 27, 2014

Analysis: The Bucks added a muscular version of Parker in Inglis.  Unfortunately Inglis is currently rehabbing a broken foot.  Despite only being 19, if Inglis had a healthy foot he would be a starter on their summer league team and possibly even push for being a part of the rotation next season.  Worst case, I see Inglis as a rich man's The Prince (Luc Richard Mbah a Moute).  Best case, the Bucks bought low on the next European stud.


2nd Round (36th Overall): Johnny ("The Leprechaun") O'Bryant
Position: Power Forward
Age: 21
Birth date: June 1, 1993
Birthplace: Cleveland, MS
School: LSU
Class: Junior
Height: 6'9"
Weight: 250 lbs
Reach: N/A
Wingspan: N/A
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Traditional power forward, does most of his damage in the paint, excellent rebounder, and strong/physical player
Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Just an average athlete, lacks consistency, and has had conditioning issues in the past
Other Possible Picks: Glenn Robinson III (SF, Michigan), Nikola Jokić (PF/C, Serbia), and Walter Tavares (C, Carpe Verde)
Twitter: @OBryant_The3rd
Tweet:

Rather have Robinson III than O'Bryant. Hopefully Hammond is right and I wrong. Could Little Dog fall to 48? #2014nbadraft
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 27, 2014

Analysis: Hammond could have made the 2014 NBA Draft the draft of the small forward if he took Glenn Robinson III.  Sure that would leave the Bucks with three too many small forwards but the Bucks need to amass talent where ever possible, irrespective of position.  Plus, unless the Bucks make a few trades they have a glut of power forwards on The 15 too so its not like O'Bryant is filling a huge need anyhow.  There is no chance that Ekpe Udoh returns to The 15 now, which could be good news for his book club because I am not sure another NBA team will make him an offer this off-season.  Much like Parker, the Bucks need to do everything in their power to get O'Bryant in shape for next season, which will give him a give him an outside chance to crack the 10-man rotation.


2nd Round (48th Overall): Lamar ("Snowbird") Patterson
Position: Small Forward
Age: 22
Birth date: August 12, 1991
Birthplace: Lancaster, PA
School: Pittsburgh
Class: Senior
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 226 lbs
Reach: 8'3"
Wingspan: 6'11"
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): All-around player, good shooter with range, excellent passer for his size, solid rebounder, and very versatile
Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Doesn't do any one thing great and not an elite athlete
Other Possible Picks: Alec Brown (C, University of Wisconsin, Green Bay), Thanasis Antetokounmpo (SF, Greece), and Alessandro Gentile (SF, Italy)
Twitter: @LP21_
Tweet:

Given all the guaranteed contracts on The 15 for @Bucks, makes senses to trade @LP21_ to @ATLHawks for a future 2nd rounder. #2014NBADraft
— CheeseheadSportsNut (@CheeseheadSN) June 27, 2014

Analysis: The Bucks traded the rights to Patterson for a future second round draft pick via the Brooklyn Nets.  I am not sure what year that pick vests but my guess is that the pick will be earlier than 48th overall but that is just conjecture.  The big miss is that the Bucks could have taken The Greek Freak's older brother Thanasis.  I wholeheartedly support anything that keeps The Greek Freak in Milwaukee long-term.  Don't get me wrong, this is probably an Aaron and Jordan Rodgers situations with Thanasis playing the part of Jordan but why not keep the most physically gifted player on The 15 that was homesick all last season happy?

As I said last year, the Bucks are in desperate need of a spark for the franchise.  Besides going to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2001, the Bucks have not won a playoff series since 1989.  Last season was downright painful to be a Bucks fan on the eve of last season coming to a close, the Bucks were sold by long-term owner Herb Kohl to Marc Lasry and Wesley Edens.  Given how much the Bucks struggled on the court, they had the best odds to win the NBA Lottery.  Fortunately (you read that correctly) the Bucks "lost" the lottery so they settled for the second pick.  That marks the 6th time that the Bucks have fallen in the last 16 NBA Draft lotteries (remained in the same position eight times and improved only twice).  Once Kansas center Joel Enbiid had foot surgery to insert screws in his foot a week before the draft, the Bucks were focused solely on Wiggins and Parker.  If Wiggins turns out to be a stud and Parker is a bust, the Bucks can blame that on being unlucky in the lottery.  f the reverse turns out to be the case, the Bucks will be a relevant NBA franchise for the next decade.


Footnote:
* = I missed on Noah Vonleh (PF, Indiana) went 9th to the Hornets, Bruno Caboclo (SF, Brazil) went 20th to the Raptors, Mitch McGary (PF, Michigan) went 21st to the Thunder, Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG, Serbia) went 27th to the Suns, C.J. Wilcox (SG, Washington) went 28th to the Clippers, and Josh Huestis (SF/PF, Stanford) went 29th to the Thunder.

** = Jarnell Stokes (PF, Tennessee) rated 18th but went 35th to the Jazz, K.J. McDaniels (SF, Clemson) rated 26th but went 32nd to the 76ers, Glenn Robinson III (SF, Michigan) rated 17th but went 40 to the Timberwolves, Spencer Dinwiddie (PG, Colorado) rated 28th but went 38th to the Pistons, Jordan Clarkson (PG, Missouri) rated 29th but went 46th to Wizards, and Damien Inglis (SF, France) rated 30th but went 31st to Bucks.

Building The 15 - First Look at 2014 NBA Draft

The 2014 NBA All-Star Weekend and the 2014 NBA Trade Deadline are both now in the books.  The only participant in the 2014 NBA All-Star Weekend for the Milwaukee Bucks was Giannis Antetokounmpo, who played in the 2014 NBA Rising Stars Challenge and participated in the NBA Skills Competition.  Sadly it looks like the The Greek Freak is the only player currently on The 15 for the Bucks that has a chance to play in the actual NBA All-Star Game down the road.

Bucks general manager John Hammond did not follow my advise for how to approach the 2014 NBA Trade Deadline.  Instead, Hammond traded guards Gary Neal and Luke Ridnour to the Charlotte Bobcats for guard Ramon Sessions and power forward Jeff Adrien.  The Bucks look no better or worse on the court following the trade and Bucks owner Herb Kohl saved a little less than $4 million over the next two seasons in the trade.  Unfortunately Hammond could not flip any of the other expiring contracts on The 15 (small forward Caron Butler or power forward Ekpe Udoh) besides Ridnour for draft picks or buy-low players with high upside.

There are three ways for general managers to build The 15 in the NBA: free agency, trades, or the draft.  Since the Bucks are a small market team we know they will never be able to add a franchise player via free agency and there is a minuscule chance that the Bucks could luck into a franchise player via trade so the best way for the Bucks to land another franchise player is through the draft.

The Bucks currently have the worst record in the NBA so almost all the focus for Bucks fans will turn to the much ballyhooed 2014 NBA Draft.  The good news is that barring a drastic turnaround following the All-Star break, the Bucks will finish with the worst record in the NBA this season.  Over the last 14 seasons, only two of teams with the worst record ended up with the first pick in the NBA Draft because even if you have the worst record you still only have a 25% chance to land the top pick in the draft.  Luckily even if the Bucks don't get the top pick, if they finish with the worst record in the NBA, the latest they can pick is 4thin the 2014 NBA Draft.

The last time the Bucks picked first overall was the 2005 NBA Draft when they had the 6th best odds of getting the top pick.  The consensus going into the 2005 NBA Draft was that it was a two person draft so the Bucks had to choose between center Andrew Bogut and small forward Marvin Williams.  It turns out that the Bucks smartly choose Bogut over Williams but missed out on two stud point guards in Deron Williams and Chris Paul that went with the next two picks.

How does this all map to the 2014 NBA Draft?  The consensus going into the college basketball season was that small forwards Jabari Parker (Duke) and Andrew Wiggins (Kansas) would go in the first two picks of the 2014 NBA Draft, in some order.  As the college season started to play out, center Joel Embiid (Kansas) worked his way into consideration to go first overall as well.  Besides that, power forward Julius Randle (Kentucky) and point guard Marcus Smart (Oklahoma State) look like strong candidates to go fourth and fifth in some order.  Despite having a decent season on the court, Smart hurt his chances to stay in the Top 5 when he got into an altercation with a fan in the stands during a game that resulted in a three game suspension.  The wild card of the 2014 NBA Draft is Australian combo guard Dante Exum.  May be it is my bias towards loving all things Australia but even leaving Smart's spat with a fan aside, I still like Exum's upside much more than Smart's.

Exum is the only player that has officially declared for the draft.  Assuming the rest of the guys just discussed declare for the 2014 NBA Draft, right now I see those six guys going in the first six picks.  Assuming that everyone we expect to declare for the 2014 NBA Draft does in fact declare, right now I see Aaron Gordon (F, Arizona), Dario Saric (SF, Croatia), Noah Vonleh (PF, Indiana), and Tyler Ennis (PG, Syracuse) rounding out the Top 10 in the 2014 NBA Draft.  There will be plenty of time to break down each of these guys in more detail.  Here is how I would currently rank the ten guys (best to worst): Parker, Embiid, Wiggins, Exum, Randle, Gordon, Saric, Smart, Ennis, and Vonleh.  I was tempted to rank Embiid ahead of Parker but Embiid has been going through some injury issues and looks to have a bad temper.  I see Embiid as a more polished offensive version of Larry Sanders but not sure whether his temper will undermine his skills.

Sure the Bucks would rather choose first instead of fourth but I would be happy with the Bucks getting any of the guys I have currently ranked in my Top 4.  That means if the Bucks finish the season with the worst record in the NBA but still only get the 4th pick in the 2014 NBA Draft they would land Exum unless Parker, Embiid or Wiggins fell for some reason.  Sure picking 4th would be a huge disappointment if the Bucks ended up with the worst record in the NBA but as you can see that is not all the talent that is projected to be available at the top of the 2014 NBA Draft.