I planned a short post with advice for how Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond should approach free agency following my review of the 2014 NBA Draft. With that post in the can Saturday afternoon and ready to run first thing Monday as a little diversion for the start of the work week, news broke late Saturday night that the Bucks and Brooklyn Nets were engaged in serious discussions regarding compensation for the Nets to let current head coach Jason Kidd out of the last three years of the four-year, $10.5 million contract that he signed with the Nets before last season. Apparently this stemmed from the fact that Kidd approached Nets ownership about an expanded front-office role that included say in roster moves but was rebuffed, which lead Kidd to look for a new employer.
Kidd experienced tons of turmoil as coach of the Nets, which was his first season moving from
playing to coaching. Sure the Nets had an over-priced and older but star
drive roster last season but that was a big part of the reason the Nets hired Kidd because he was supposed to handle his "peers" given that he actually played in the NBA for the New York Knicks for the 2012-13 season. Early in the season the Nets struggled but
instead of shouldering the blame, Kidd tried to place blame elsewhere starting with lead assistant coach Lawrence Frank.
Despite being Kidd's hand-picked lead assistant, a little over a month
into the season, Kidd made Frank the fall guy
when he removed Frank from the bench to instead focus on scouting
despite being reportedly the highest paid assistant coach (six-years, $6
million) in the NBA last season.
Prior to this Kidd debacle, the new Bucks co-owners Marc Lasry and Wesley Edens have handled everything perfectly since they bought the Bucks from Herb Kohl at the end of last season their first official act was to send Mallory Edens as the team representative to the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery, which made for one of the most awkward Twitter situations of 2014 as grown men digitally drooled over Edens. Although Edens did not deliver the first pick despite the fact that the Bucks had the worst record in the NBA, she will go down as the most memorable thing from the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery.
Even though the Bucks posted their worst record in franchise history, the new ownership group along with the second pick in the 2014 NBA Draft gave fans hope that things could turnaround fast next year. Instead of making flashy moves, the new ownership group went on a grassroots tour where they interacted with fans in-person and online. The new ownership group openly discussed a new arena but stressed the need to improve The 15. Instead of replacing coaches or members of the front-office, the new ownership group said they were going to give each group a season to keep their respective jobs. Trust me, I did not like when Hammond hired Larry Drew as head coach last off-season but do believe Drew and Hammond should have at least one more season. It looks like Hammond will get another season but I would he shocked if Drew is employed by the Bucks at the end of the week.
Apparently second round pick(s) are being discussed as compensation for Kidd. Let's not confuse Kidd with the second coming of Phil Jackson. I am not sure what Kidd has done so far since shifting from playing to coaching to prove that he is a even a quality head coach let alone a guy worthy of being a coach with say over personnel decisions too. Let's see him handle just coaching before giving him front-office responsibilities too. Thankfully the current reports are that the Bucks envision Kidd solely as a coach.
Before the 2014 NBA Draft I advised Hammond how to approach restricted (power forward Ekpe Udoh) and unrestricted (power forward Jeff Adrien and combo guard Ramon Sessions) free agents. Following the draft, my advice remains essentially the same, especially if Hammond and/or Kidd can somehow how get teams to take on some of the bloated contracts on The 15. Following the 2014 NBA Draft, here is my current depth chart for The 15:
Point Guard (1): Brandon Knight
Shooting Guard (3): Nate Wolters, O.J. Mayo, and Carlos Delfino
Small Forward (4): Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Damien Inglis, and Chris Wright
Power Forward (4): John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova, Khris Middleton, and Johnny O'Bryant III
Center (3): Larry Sanders, Zaza Pachulia, and Miroslav Raduljica
As you can see above, the Bucks already have 15 guys projected to be under contract for next season once they sign their three draft picks so that leaves the Bucks without any real open roster spots. Thankfully the Bucks have some guys currently on The 15 like Wright and Radulijca with either a low cap number or only a partially guaranteed contract so that gives the Bucks some wiggle room. Still Hammond's roster construction flies in the face of my theory of leaving the last three spots on The 15 for low-priced, non-guaranteed contracts that that you can churn on a weekly basis, if necessary. Given that The 15 is currently front-court heavy, I would be shocked if the Bucks did NOT add at least one ball handler given
that they are light at that position despite having a number of point
forwards on The 15.
In order to have real wiggle room to actually sign free agents though, the Bucks would need to offload some of their expensive contracts without giving up draft picks or taking on more long-term money. There are four candidates to move: Mayo, Ilyasova, Sanders, and Pachulia. Last season teams tried to buy low on Ilyasova and Sanders but I would hold onto those guys because I see them being the third or fourth best player on a playoff contender when healthy and with their head screwed on straight. That means I would trade Mayo's or Pachulia's bloated contracts, pun in the case of Mayo, in a heartbeat. Unfortunately I see both of those as a long-shot without taking on equally horrible contracts.
I am not sure what the Bucks would do with the salary cap space anyhow whether the Bucks have Kidd in the fold or not because marque free agents are NOT interested in signing with the Bucks since thy do not yet have a Top 10 NBA player and the team plays in Milwaukee. Thus the Bucks need to lure free agents by drafting superstars that entice free agents. Thankfully there is hope on that front with The Greek Freak and Parker on The 15. Right now that is hope more than production but if The Greek Freak and Parker backup their limitless potential with production, the Bucks might actually have a shot to sign marquee free agents.
I am not a fan of giving the Nets anything more than a bag of balls for
Kidd's service as a coach and/or member of the front office. Plus it will be super awkward to keep Drew as head coach if the Bucks "miss-out" on Kidd. There is no way that the Bucks are landing one of the marquee free agents this off-season like LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony so my advice is to pass on Kidd and let the high-end market settle out before making a single free agent contract offer. At that point, the Bucks should bottom feed to improve the bottom third of The 15 with rotational players on the cheap. If any of those guys turn out to be worth having long-term, great. If not, at least the Bucks are building a cost-effective, flexible roster. Unfortunately I am not in charge so I see Kidd becoming a member of the Bucks by the end of the week. Either way, it will be interesting to see how the next few days play out.
Showing posts with label Larry Drew. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Larry Drew. Show all posts
Monday, June 30, 2014
Thursday, April 17, 2014
The 15 - In Giannis We Trust
Welcome to the 4th and final installment of The 15 for the 2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks. The 2013-14 season for the Milwaukee Bucks mercifully came to an end following their franchise record 67th loss of the season 111-103 to the Atlanta Hawks at home. This season has been such a bust that I actually enjoyed my post about how Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond should approach the 2014 NBA Trade Deadline as well as a look at the trade that Hammond actually made much more than my traditional The 15 posts. If you are a glutton for punishment and missed my first three, make sure to check them out: Walking Wounded..., Forever Young...May You Stay...Forever Young, and All-Star Break Thoughts.
Besides the end of the 2013-14 season, today marks a huge changing of the guard as Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry purchased the Bucks from long-time owner Herb Kohl. Given that the Bucks have been stuck in neutral for almost a decade, a change in ownership was way overdue. I am sure Kohl is a nice man but his decree that the Bucks "stay relevant", meaning teeter on the playoff/lottery bubble, is short-sided. All sports fans but especially NBA fans want a winner, not one with a 0.00001% chance of winning an NBA title.
There are bound to be some bumps in the road over the next year as the new owners exert their influence over the franchise. Thus if I was general manager John Hammond or head coach Larry Drew, I would make sure that I am checking around the league in case the ownership group decides to blow things up. We will have months to speculate on how the new ownership group should proceed. For now, I am going to do my best to put the painful 2013-14 season for the Bucks in the books.
Since I am sure most of you tuned the Bucks out a long time ago, let me quickly catch you up. The youth movement is in full effect. Going into the off-season last year it was clear that the Bucks were going through some type of re-build, which is why I thought it made much more sense to hire a lesser known first time head coach instead of a re-tread head coach like Larry Drew. Thankfully by the end of the season Drew finally realized he had to play the young guys, given that the Bucks were going to lose anyways, too bad he didn't realize that months earlier so that some of the young guys could have more game in-game repetitions under their belt going into next season.
Well with all of that uplifting background out of the way, here are my final rankings of The 15 for the abysmal and injured 2013-14 Bucks:
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 1): Right now The Greek Freak is the only true franchise player on The 15 with a legitimate shot to make an All-NBA Team, which makes him a no-brainer for the top spot on The 15. Sure The Greek Freak only posted a 10.8 PER in his rookie season but there were a million endearing moments in The Greek Freek's rookie year on the court (a block followed by a crafty assist & a block followed by a great dunk) and off the court (impressive soccer goal & anecdote about running to a game after sending money to his family). There is no question that the Bucks bought low on The Greek Freak when they drafted him with the 14th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft. The question is whether the Bucks can surround The Greek Freak with another franchise player from the 2014 NBA Draft to give the Bucks a duo worth paying to watch for the first time in almost a decade.
5. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 4): The Poor Man's Dirk turned into the Homeless Man's Dirk this season. Thankfully Ilyasova has a little fire in his belly, which was evidenced by the fact that Ilyasova punched Sacramento Kings forward Reggie Evans in the stomach. Unfortunately an ankle injury cut Ilyasova's most forgettable season besides his rookie year with the team short. The Bucks still owe Ilyasova $7.9 million each of the next two seasons while 2016-17 is essentially a team option since only $400,000 of his $8.4 million salary is guaranteed for that season. I am a total Ilyasova apologist evne after last season. Sure Ilyasova struggles defensively but with the quality defenders that the Bucks are amassing, in Ilyasova the Bucks have a quality offensive option that is slightly overpaid next season that worst case turns into a great expiring contract the following season.
8. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 10): I was not a fan of the Mayo signing last off-season, which was even before Mayo reported overweight and ambled through the season. At times Mayo can score at will, which makes him enticing and frustrating all at once given that he only shows his upside in short spurts as opposed to sustained periods of time. The Bucks need to decide if Mayo is redeemable, otherwise they are going to hide him all next season until he becomes an enticing expiring contract following the 2015-16 season. The Mayo contract is just the kind of middle-class NBA contract that the Bucks need to avoid. I know that the Bucks cannot attract marque free agents. Instead of overpaying average players, they would be much better off playing out the string with guys signed to cheaper, non-guaranteed deals.
10. Chris Wright (SF, N/A): The Bucks gave auditions during the second half of the season to three guys (small forward Tony Mitchell, shooting guard D.J. Stephens, and small forward Chris Wright) on 10-day contracts. At first blush, Mitchell looks like the best of the bunch given that he posted an insane 31 PER but keep in mind he only played 10 minutes for the Bucks. Selfishly I like Wright the most because of how exciting of a player he was at the University of Dayton, which is my Father In-Law's favorite sports team. Leaving my family bias aside, when I watched Wright in college, I thought he would be a late first round pick. Wright ultimately went undrafted in the 2011 NBA Draft but still appeared in 24 games for the Golden State Warriors in the 2011-12 NBA season. Wright went through training camp for both the 2012-13 and 2013-14 NBA seasons but failed to make The 15 for an NBA team to start either of those seasons. In each of those seasons Wright excelled in the NBA D-League though. This season the Bucks finally took notice and added Wright to The 15 on a couple 10-day contracts that helped him earn a a multi-year contract with a minuscule signing bonus. Depending on how the off-season goes, Wright's spot on The 15 is tenuous given that his contract is essentially non-guaranteed. I keep getting flashes on his athleticism in college as I write this so I am convinced more than ever that if the Bucks keep Write on The 15 next season they are buying low on a guy that could be the 9th or 10th guy on The 15 next season.
One final note, take the rankings of Sessions, Adrien, and Udoh with a grain of salt because their rankings are hurt by their contract situation. Sessions and Adriens are set to become unrestricted free agents, which drops their value dramatically while Udoh is set to become a restricted free agent. Udoh has been underwhelming the last couple seasons so no need to discuss him any further. Unlike Udoh, on talent alone, Sessions and Adriens look like viable NBA players but my guess is that Sessions will be too expensive for the Bucks while Adriens will lose out to the glut of front-court players the Bucks already have on The 15.
Thankfully the Bucks will be able to add another potential franchise player early in the 2014 NBA Draft, which will drastically improve The 15 for the 2014-15 season, so make sure to check back for my detailed thoughts on how the Bucks should proceed to improve The 15 to make next season.
Besides the end of the 2013-14 season, today marks a huge changing of the guard as Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry purchased the Bucks from long-time owner Herb Kohl. Given that the Bucks have been stuck in neutral for almost a decade, a change in ownership was way overdue. I am sure Kohl is a nice man but his decree that the Bucks "stay relevant", meaning teeter on the playoff/lottery bubble, is short-sided. All sports fans but especially NBA fans want a winner, not one with a 0.00001% chance of winning an NBA title.
There are bound to be some bumps in the road over the next year as the new owners exert their influence over the franchise. Thus if I was general manager John Hammond or head coach Larry Drew, I would make sure that I am checking around the league in case the ownership group decides to blow things up. We will have months to speculate on how the new ownership group should proceed. For now, I am going to do my best to put the painful 2013-14 season for the Bucks in the books.
Since I am sure most of you tuned the Bucks out a long time ago, let me quickly catch you up. The youth movement is in full effect. Going into the off-season last year it was clear that the Bucks were going through some type of re-build, which is why I thought it made much more sense to hire a lesser known first time head coach instead of a re-tread head coach like Larry Drew. Thankfully by the end of the season Drew finally realized he had to play the young guys, given that the Bucks were going to lose anyways, too bad he didn't realize that months earlier so that some of the young guys could have more game in-game repetitions under their belt going into next season.
Well with all of that uplifting background out of the way, here are my final rankings of The 15 for the abysmal and injured 2013-14 Bucks:
| The 15 |
| 1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 1) 2. John Henson (PF/C, LR 2) 3. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 3) 4. Larry Sanders (C, LR 5) 5. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 4) 6. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 6) 7. Nate Wolters (PG, LR 7) 8. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 10) 9. Miroslav Raduljica (C, LR 11) 10. Chris Wright (SF, N/A) 11. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 13) 12. Carlos Delfino (SG/SF, LR 15) 13. Ramon Sessions (PG, LR N/A) 14. Jeff Adrien (SF, N/A) 15. Ekpe Udoh (PF, LR 14) |
5. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 4): The Poor Man's Dirk turned into the Homeless Man's Dirk this season. Thankfully Ilyasova has a little fire in his belly, which was evidenced by the fact that Ilyasova punched Sacramento Kings forward Reggie Evans in the stomach. Unfortunately an ankle injury cut Ilyasova's most forgettable season besides his rookie year with the team short. The Bucks still owe Ilyasova $7.9 million each of the next two seasons while 2016-17 is essentially a team option since only $400,000 of his $8.4 million salary is guaranteed for that season. I am a total Ilyasova apologist evne after last season. Sure Ilyasova struggles defensively but with the quality defenders that the Bucks are amassing, in Ilyasova the Bucks have a quality offensive option that is slightly overpaid next season that worst case turns into a great expiring contract the following season.
8. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 10): I was not a fan of the Mayo signing last off-season, which was even before Mayo reported overweight and ambled through the season. At times Mayo can score at will, which makes him enticing and frustrating all at once given that he only shows his upside in short spurts as opposed to sustained periods of time. The Bucks need to decide if Mayo is redeemable, otherwise they are going to hide him all next season until he becomes an enticing expiring contract following the 2015-16 season. The Mayo contract is just the kind of middle-class NBA contract that the Bucks need to avoid. I know that the Bucks cannot attract marque free agents. Instead of overpaying average players, they would be much better off playing out the string with guys signed to cheaper, non-guaranteed deals.
10. Chris Wright (SF, N/A): The Bucks gave auditions during the second half of the season to three guys (small forward Tony Mitchell, shooting guard D.J. Stephens, and small forward Chris Wright) on 10-day contracts. At first blush, Mitchell looks like the best of the bunch given that he posted an insane 31 PER but keep in mind he only played 10 minutes for the Bucks. Selfishly I like Wright the most because of how exciting of a player he was at the University of Dayton, which is my Father In-Law's favorite sports team. Leaving my family bias aside, when I watched Wright in college, I thought he would be a late first round pick. Wright ultimately went undrafted in the 2011 NBA Draft but still appeared in 24 games for the Golden State Warriors in the 2011-12 NBA season. Wright went through training camp for both the 2012-13 and 2013-14 NBA seasons but failed to make The 15 for an NBA team to start either of those seasons. In each of those seasons Wright excelled in the NBA D-League though. This season the Bucks finally took notice and added Wright to The 15 on a couple 10-day contracts that helped him earn a a multi-year contract with a minuscule signing bonus. Depending on how the off-season goes, Wright's spot on The 15 is tenuous given that his contract is essentially non-guaranteed. I keep getting flashes on his athleticism in college as I write this so I am convinced more than ever that if the Bucks keep Write on The 15 next season they are buying low on a guy that could be the 9th or 10th guy on The 15 next season.
One final note, take the rankings of Sessions, Adrien, and Udoh with a grain of salt because their rankings are hurt by their contract situation. Sessions and Adriens are set to become unrestricted free agents, which drops their value dramatically while Udoh is set to become a restricted free agent. Udoh has been underwhelming the last couple seasons so no need to discuss him any further. Unlike Udoh, on talent alone, Sessions and Adriens look like viable NBA players but my guess is that Sessions will be too expensive for the Bucks while Adriens will lose out to the glut of front-court players the Bucks already have on The 15.
Thankfully the Bucks will be able to add another potential franchise player early in the 2014 NBA Draft, which will drastically improve The 15 for the 2014-15 season, so make sure to check back for my detailed thoughts on how the Bucks should proceed to improve The 15 to make next season.
Sunday, December 29, 2013
The 15 - Forever Young...May You Stay...Forever Young
Sorry it has been almost a month since my last post about the 2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks but things have been crazy for the Green Bay Packers and Manchester City, which has precluded me from posting more about the underwhelming Bucks. Later today we will know whether the Packers beat the Chicago Bears on the road, which will determine whether the Packers or Bears win the NFC North and host a home playoff game. Since I am doing everything in my power to distract myself until kickoff of the Packers/Bears game, I decided to post something about the Bucks as a nice reprieve for Cheesehead sports fans.
The Bucks are 1-5 in overtime games so far this season. Losing that many games in overtime can be chalked up to two different things: inability to make clutch shots or lack of depth. Given their injury issues, I would chalk it up to lack of depth. Following their home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, the Bucks are currently 6-24 ahead of their three game road trip out West (Lakers, Jazz, and Suns), which usually means three loses.
The Bucks have a very good chance to lose the most games in franchise history, which was set in the 1993-94 season when head coach Mike Dunleavy lead the Bucks to a 20-62 record. The Buck suffered a myriad of injuries to almost everyone on The 15 so far this season so even though they did not want to tank this year per owner Herb Kohl's mandate, the Bucks currently have the worst record in the league and it looks like things will only get worse to close out 2013 and start 2014 on their three game West coast road trip.
Earlier this month Kohl held a press conference to say he wants to broaden ownership as a means to keep the Bucks in Milwaukee long-term. Kohl was a United States Senator from Wisconsin from January 4, 1989 to January 3, 2013 and has owned the Bucks since 1985. Some thought once Kohl retired from the Senate that he would have more time to focus on the Bucks and the push to get a new arena built in Milwaukee. I am not against Kohl and his new investors building a new arena in Milwaukee as long as the tax payers of the state of Wisconsin do not have to pay for the new arena. Presumably any new owners that Kohl would add would have deep pockets, which would allow them to foot the bill for a new arena. If Kohl and his new investors expect the tax payers to foot the bill, I am fine with the Bucks becoming the new version of the Seattle SuperSonics.
One quick piece of advice for small market NBA general managers before we get to my updated rankings of The 15. Small market NBA general managers are inherently at a disadvantage because even if they have cap space, they are unable to attract big-time free agents so they need to change how they approach putting together The 15 by giving themselves more roster flexibility. Following the 2013 NBA Draft, Bucks general manager John Hammond made some questionable moves that essentially handcuffed any roster flexibility on The 15 given that Hammond filled The 15 with guaranteed contracts. The problem with that approach is that when The 15 goes through a rash of injuries like the Bucks have to start the 2013-14 NBA season, there is no way to bring in short-term help since everyone on The 15 has a guaranteed contract. That means Hammond cannot cut anyone without fairly significant financial ramifications but if he left a spot or two open on The 15 he could have added undrafted rookie free agents on a rotating basis where warm bodies are needed to fill out the rotation.
With than unfortunate introduction that pretty much shows you how depressing things have been for the Bucks so far this season out of the way, here are my updated thoughts on The 15:
2) Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 3): Bucks head coach Larry Drew is finally starting The Greek Freak, unfortunately it took a bunch of injuries to force Drew to play the most exciting player on The 15. Why do I love The Greek Freak? Check out his drive past Kevin Garnett for an easy dunk as one of many examples from his young NBA career. The Greek Freak was listed at 6'9" before the 2013 NBA Draft and apparently has the growth plates of a 16-year old so he already grew an inch and a half in the last six months. Given that The Greek Freak is currently the youngest player in the NBA, there is a good chance that he will end-up growing another inch and a half to be a 7-footer with ball handling and shooting skills of a guard to go along with the defense and rebounding skills of a forward. The Greek Freak is also making other players on the court better. Case and point, starting point Brandon Knight doubled his scoring, rebounding, and assists since The Greek Freak joined the starting lineup. Am I excited for The Greek Freak's potential upside? Let's have Marv Albert give my response.
5) Khris Middleton (SF, LR 8): Before the season I said that I had very low expectations for Middleton. Most of that was due to the fact that Middleton was projected as a borderline lottery pick in the 2012 NBA Draft going into his junior season at Texas A&M. Unfortunately Middleton struggled due to a knee injury and a coaching change but still decided to come out early. The Detroit Pistons drafted Middleton 39th overall and buried him on the bench throughout his rookie season. After joining the Bucks this off-season in the Jennings for Knight et al. trade, the team committed to giving Middleton regular minutes so he already appeared for the Bucks more times this season than he did for the Pistons all last season. Early results are positive as Middleton is the only player to appear in every game for the Bucks this season and is fourth on the team in PER with 14.4.
11) Miroslav Raduljica (C, LR 14): With centers Zaza Pachulia and Larry Sanders out for extended periods of time so far this season, Drew was essentially forced to play Raduljica and he has responded well so far. Raduljica is currently second on the team in PER with 19.1. Take that with a grain of salt thought because Raduljica is only averaging 10 minutes per game in 17 appearances (2 starts). I look at backup centers like backup catchers in baseball, they are necessary but you should never overpay for them. Injuries aside, the Bucks clearly overpaid Pachulia when they signed him to a three-year, $15.6 million deal. The Bucks properly paid Raduljica when they signed him to a three-year, $4.5 million deal. I am not saying that Raduljica is better than Pachulia right now but for a team that has no legitimate playoff aspirations, it make much more sense to pay Raduljica $1.5 million than Pachulia $5.2 million to play backup center.
Given how much the Bucks have struggled this season, the only thing to look forward to is the NBA Trade Deadline on Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 2 pm CST. The Bucks really only have two untouchable players on The 15: John Henson and The Greek Freak. Besides those guys, Hammond should make everyone else available even if it hurts the Bucks immensely in the short-term in the hopes of building a long-term winner. I will do my best to work ESPN's NBA Trade Machine to construct a number of ridiculous trades for Hammond that will never happen but are fun to discuss.
The Bucks are 1-5 in overtime games so far this season. Losing that many games in overtime can be chalked up to two different things: inability to make clutch shots or lack of depth. Given their injury issues, I would chalk it up to lack of depth. Following their home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, the Bucks are currently 6-24 ahead of their three game road trip out West (Lakers, Jazz, and Suns), which usually means three loses.
The Bucks have a very good chance to lose the most games in franchise history, which was set in the 1993-94 season when head coach Mike Dunleavy lead the Bucks to a 20-62 record. The Buck suffered a myriad of injuries to almost everyone on The 15 so far this season so even though they did not want to tank this year per owner Herb Kohl's mandate, the Bucks currently have the worst record in the league and it looks like things will only get worse to close out 2013 and start 2014 on their three game West coast road trip.
Earlier this month Kohl held a press conference to say he wants to broaden ownership as a means to keep the Bucks in Milwaukee long-term. Kohl was a United States Senator from Wisconsin from January 4, 1989 to January 3, 2013 and has owned the Bucks since 1985. Some thought once Kohl retired from the Senate that he would have more time to focus on the Bucks and the push to get a new arena built in Milwaukee. I am not against Kohl and his new investors building a new arena in Milwaukee as long as the tax payers of the state of Wisconsin do not have to pay for the new arena. Presumably any new owners that Kohl would add would have deep pockets, which would allow them to foot the bill for a new arena. If Kohl and his new investors expect the tax payers to foot the bill, I am fine with the Bucks becoming the new version of the Seattle SuperSonics.
One quick piece of advice for small market NBA general managers before we get to my updated rankings of The 15. Small market NBA general managers are inherently at a disadvantage because even if they have cap space, they are unable to attract big-time free agents so they need to change how they approach putting together The 15 by giving themselves more roster flexibility. Following the 2013 NBA Draft, Bucks general manager John Hammond made some questionable moves that essentially handcuffed any roster flexibility on The 15 given that Hammond filled The 15 with guaranteed contracts. The problem with that approach is that when The 15 goes through a rash of injuries like the Bucks have to start the 2013-14 NBA season, there is no way to bring in short-term help since everyone on The 15 has a guaranteed contract. That means Hammond cannot cut anyone without fairly significant financial ramifications but if he left a spot or two open on The 15 he could have added undrafted rookie free agents on a rotating basis where warm bodies are needed to fill out the rotation.
With than unfortunate introduction that pretty much shows you how depressing things have been for the Bucks so far this season out of the way, here are my updated thoughts on The 15:
| The 15 |
| 1. John Henson (PF/C, LR 1) 2. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG/SF, LR 3) 3. Larry Sanders (C, LR 7) 4. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 6) 5. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 8) 6. Gary Neal (SG, LR 4) 7. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 2) 8. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 5) 9. Caron Butler (SF, LR 9) 10. Nate Wolters (PG, LR 10) 11. Miroslav Raduljica (C, LR 14) 12. Ekpe Udoh (PF, LR 13) 13. Luke Ridnour (PG, LR 12) 14. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 11) 15. Carlos Delfino (SG/SF, LR 15) |
5) Khris Middleton (SF, LR 8): Before the season I said that I had very low expectations for Middleton. Most of that was due to the fact that Middleton was projected as a borderline lottery pick in the 2012 NBA Draft going into his junior season at Texas A&M. Unfortunately Middleton struggled due to a knee injury and a coaching change but still decided to come out early. The Detroit Pistons drafted Middleton 39th overall and buried him on the bench throughout his rookie season. After joining the Bucks this off-season in the Jennings for Knight et al. trade, the team committed to giving Middleton regular minutes so he already appeared for the Bucks more times this season than he did for the Pistons all last season. Early results are positive as Middleton is the only player to appear in every game for the Bucks this season and is fourth on the team in PER with 14.4.
11) Miroslav Raduljica (C, LR 14): With centers Zaza Pachulia and Larry Sanders out for extended periods of time so far this season, Drew was essentially forced to play Raduljica and he has responded well so far. Raduljica is currently second on the team in PER with 19.1. Take that with a grain of salt thought because Raduljica is only averaging 10 minutes per game in 17 appearances (2 starts). I look at backup centers like backup catchers in baseball, they are necessary but you should never overpay for them. Injuries aside, the Bucks clearly overpaid Pachulia when they signed him to a three-year, $15.6 million deal. The Bucks properly paid Raduljica when they signed him to a three-year, $4.5 million deal. I am not saying that Raduljica is better than Pachulia right now but for a team that has no legitimate playoff aspirations, it make much more sense to pay Raduljica $1.5 million than Pachulia $5.2 million to play backup center.
Given how much the Bucks have struggled this season, the only thing to look forward to is the NBA Trade Deadline on Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 2 pm CST. The Bucks really only have two untouchable players on The 15: John Henson and The Greek Freak. Besides those guys, Hammond should make everyone else available even if it hurts the Bucks immensely in the short-term in the hopes of building a long-term winner. I will do my best to work ESPN's NBA Trade Machine to construct a number of ridiculous trades for Hammond that will never happen but are fun to discuss.
Thursday, November 28, 2013
The 15 - Walking Wounded...
I reviewed how Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond completely overhauled The 15 to construct the 2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks. Instead of bottoming out, Hammond was making marginal moves that "improved" the roster to be competitive this season despite the fact that it could actually hinder the development of The 15 long-term. So far the Bucks have been absolutely ravaged by injuries on and off the court. I finally got to see the Bucks in-person for for the first time this season with Papa Cheese. The Bucks dropped their 10th straight game to drop to 2-12 on the season. Their most recent loss was to the Washington Wizards in overtime despite the fact that the Wizards are coming off a back-to-back.
Remember these rankings are done factoring in age, contract, and production. A perfect example is O.J. Mayo v. Gary Neal. Mayo is a more talented shooting guard than Neal but teams would much rather pay $3 million a year for Neal than $8 million a year for Mayo. These rankings are more meaningful in the NBA than the NFL or MLB because NBA teams actually make trades, which are usually an exchange of crappy contracts in the hopes that a change in scenery will make the over paid players somehow improve. Based on how horrible the Bucks look, I would rather see them downgrade the roster for this season in hopes of builder a winner long-term. Here are my updated rankings:
1. John Henson (PF/C, LR 3): The current team leader in PER is averaging 10 points, 6 rebounds, and just less than 2 blocks per game. I thought the 2012 NBA Draft was an nine player draft. Henson was one of those nine guys so I thought there was no way the Bucks would have a chance to nab Henson with the 14th pick. Luckily teams that picked ahead of the Bucks were more enamored with Austin Rivers, Meyers Leonard,
Jeremy Lamb, and Kendall Marshall so Henson fell to the Bucks at 14. Given Henson's productivity in short spurts, Bucks head coach Larry Drew needs to get Henson 30 minutes a game or be fired.
6) Brandon Knight (PG, LR 4): I want to give Knight the benefit of the doubt because his season got off to a horrible start with him pulling his hamstring in the first few minutes on opening night in New York against the Knicks but Knight has a -.1 PER in five appearances this season, which I did NOT think was even humanly possible. Sure the sample size is low but that is a rough way to start off with your new employer. Even worse, Knight looks lost at point guard. Knight almost single-highhandedly sealed a loss against the Wizards by committing a crucial turnover with the Bucks up 84-81 with just over a minute to play. The turnover was so bad that I honestly wondered if Knight was throwing the game. Right now Knight just doesn't look like a confident point guard and I can't tell if that is due to injury or that he will never be a legitimate NBA point guard.
7) Larry Sanders (C, LR 2): Being out six weeks following thumb surgery from the fallout of a bar fight is unacceptable. Before the injury Sanders was buried on the bench due in part to foul trouble and Drew's affinity for playing guys he knows. Sanders was averaging just 2.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks to amass a putrid 1.7 PER. Sure it was only three games but clearly Drew favors re-treads like center Zaza Pachulia ahead of Sanders. Given how much the Bucks invested in Sanders this off-season, may be they should have talked to Drew about how he envisioned using Sanders because so far icy would be a friendly way of describing the relationship between Drew and Sanders. Don't get me wrong, Sanders said he had his off-the-court issues behind him but then hurt his thumb in a bar fight but when healthy, he better play regular minutes as a starting center otherwise Hammond has to cut Drew loose.
15) Carlos Delfino (SG/SF, LR 12): If Delfino was healthy to start the season he would have been in the Top 8 of my initial rankings since he had a good chance to start at small forward. Given that Delfino was supposed to miss the first month or two of the season, I saw him as the biggest potential riser on The 15. According to Delfino's personal website though, he is not recovering as well as he thought so he is most likely out for the season. That moved the signing of Delfino to a three-year, $9.75 million deal this off-season despite the fact that he was injured from a shrewd move to a potentially horrible signing. That has been compounded by Drew starting Khris Middleton at small forward even though his ceiling is being a poor man's Desmond Mason. The one bright side of Delfino being out for the season is that it certainly helps the Bucks' chances of tanking for a Top 3 pick in the loaded 2014 NBA Draft.
Although my #FearTheMediocreDeer hash tag has not caught on yet on Twitter, it is looking spot on so far since this season already looks like a lost endeavor. The Bucks probably need to go in full tank mode, which is possible given the youth on The 15. No matter how the Bucks finish in the standings this year, they need to separate young building blocks (think The Greek Freak) from young over-hyped players (think Ekpe Udoh). That is what makes Drew's lineups so puzzling. I almost feel like Drew is trying to help the Bucks tank without developing any of the young guys based on how he is currently managing playing time, which is unacceptable.
Given that Sanders is currently hurt, my starting five would be: Knight at point guard, Mayo at shooting guard, The Greek Freak at small forward, Ilyasova at power forward, and Henson at center. My first five off the bench would be Wolters, Middleton, Neal, Udoh, and Raduljica. If a foolish NBA GM will give the Bucks any long-term salary cap relief in exchange for Butler or Pachulia, as long as it does not include surrendering any draft picks, I would make that trade in a nanosecond.
Remember these rankings are done factoring in age, contract, and production. A perfect example is O.J. Mayo v. Gary Neal. Mayo is a more talented shooting guard than Neal but teams would much rather pay $3 million a year for Neal than $8 million a year for Mayo. These rankings are more meaningful in the NBA than the NFL or MLB because NBA teams actually make trades, which are usually an exchange of crappy contracts in the hopes that a change in scenery will make the over paid players somehow improve. Based on how horrible the Bucks look, I would rather see them downgrade the roster for this season in hopes of builder a winner long-term. Here are my updated rankings:
| The 15 |
| 1. John Henson (PF/C, LR 3) 2. Ersan Ilyasova (PF, LR 1) 3. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF, LR 5) 4. Gary Neal (SG, LR 6) 5. O.J. Mayo (SG, LR 7) 6. Brandon Knight (PG, LR 4) 7. Larry Sanders (C, LR 2) 8. Khris Middleton (SF, LR 10) 9. Caron Butler (SF, LR 8) 10. Nate Wolters (PG, LR 9) 11. Zaza Pachulia (C, LR 13) 12. Luke Ridnour (PG, LR 11) 13. Ekpe Udoh (PF, LR 14) 14. Miroslav Raduljica (C, LR 15) 15. Carlos Delfino (SG/SF, LR 12) |
6) Brandon Knight (PG, LR 4): I want to give Knight the benefit of the doubt because his season got off to a horrible start with him pulling his hamstring in the first few minutes on opening night in New York against the Knicks but Knight has a -.1 PER in five appearances this season, which I did NOT think was even humanly possible. Sure the sample size is low but that is a rough way to start off with your new employer. Even worse, Knight looks lost at point guard. Knight almost single-highhandedly sealed a loss against the Wizards by committing a crucial turnover with the Bucks up 84-81 with just over a minute to play. The turnover was so bad that I honestly wondered if Knight was throwing the game. Right now Knight just doesn't look like a confident point guard and I can't tell if that is due to injury or that he will never be a legitimate NBA point guard.
7) Larry Sanders (C, LR 2): Being out six weeks following thumb surgery from the fallout of a bar fight is unacceptable. Before the injury Sanders was buried on the bench due in part to foul trouble and Drew's affinity for playing guys he knows. Sanders was averaging just 2.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks to amass a putrid 1.7 PER. Sure it was only three games but clearly Drew favors re-treads like center Zaza Pachulia ahead of Sanders. Given how much the Bucks invested in Sanders this off-season, may be they should have talked to Drew about how he envisioned using Sanders because so far icy would be a friendly way of describing the relationship between Drew and Sanders. Don't get me wrong, Sanders said he had his off-the-court issues behind him but then hurt his thumb in a bar fight but when healthy, he better play regular minutes as a starting center otherwise Hammond has to cut Drew loose.
15) Carlos Delfino (SG/SF, LR 12): If Delfino was healthy to start the season he would have been in the Top 8 of my initial rankings since he had a good chance to start at small forward. Given that Delfino was supposed to miss the first month or two of the season, I saw him as the biggest potential riser on The 15. According to Delfino's personal website though, he is not recovering as well as he thought so he is most likely out for the season. That moved the signing of Delfino to a three-year, $9.75 million deal this off-season despite the fact that he was injured from a shrewd move to a potentially horrible signing. That has been compounded by Drew starting Khris Middleton at small forward even though his ceiling is being a poor man's Desmond Mason. The one bright side of Delfino being out for the season is that it certainly helps the Bucks' chances of tanking for a Top 3 pick in the loaded 2014 NBA Draft.
Although my #FearTheMediocreDeer hash tag has not caught on yet on Twitter, it is looking spot on so far since this season already looks like a lost endeavor. The Bucks probably need to go in full tank mode, which is possible given the youth on The 15. No matter how the Bucks finish in the standings this year, they need to separate young building blocks (think The Greek Freak) from young over-hyped players (think Ekpe Udoh). That is what makes Drew's lineups so puzzling. I almost feel like Drew is trying to help the Bucks tank without developing any of the young guys based on how he is currently managing playing time, which is unacceptable.
Given that Sanders is currently hurt, my starting five would be: Knight at point guard, Mayo at shooting guard, The Greek Freak at small forward, Ilyasova at power forward, and Henson at center. My first five off the bench would be Wolters, Middleton, Neal, Udoh, and Raduljica. If a foolish NBA GM will give the Bucks any long-term salary cap relief in exchange for Butler or Pachulia, as long as it does not include surrendering any draft picks, I would make that trade in a nanosecond.
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Building The 15 - How We Got Here
The 2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks open the the season on the road tonight against the New York Knicks. There are just four players left on The 15 from the 2012-13 Milwaukee Bucks so I expect there to be some chemistry issues. Despite the fact that I already looked at some of the moves Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond made earlier this off-season, I thought it made sense to take a total look at all the moves that netted the 2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks 11 new players on The 15.
It is well known by now that Milwaukee Bucks owner Herb Kohl would rather see the Bucks creep into the playoffs as an 8th seed and get swept by the Miami Heat again like they did last year than bottom out. Almost every move this off-season by Hammond looked like another middling move that caused me to try to get #FearTheMediocreDeer trending as a hash tag on Twitter.
Whether you view the moves that Hammond made as an attempt to pacify Kohl's mandate to stay relevant instead of bottom out or middling moves that will help the Bucks long-term, I find a few of the moves sensible but most of them and others downright ridiculous. Here are my rankings (worst to best) of every move made between the end of last season and the start of this season to cobble together The 15:
Hire Larry Drew as head coach: For some reason teams would rather give retread coaches another chance instead of rolling the dice on a young, hungry defensive minded coach. I gave a number of suggestions for where the Bucks should go at head coach, unfortunately Hammond ignored my suggestions.
Signed Zaza Pachulia (C ) to a three-year, $15.6 million contract: The Bucks are paying Pachulia a ton of money despite the fact that they have a bunch of young talent in the front that needs to play in order to see if their potential translates into production. Given how much the Bucks are paying Pachulia, if he sits on the bench then he is most expensive insurance policy in the NBA or will take away valuable minutes from one of the young front court players that should learn on the job this season.
Waived Gustavo Ayon (C): The Bucks could have had a decent, young backup center on the roster for $1.5 million. Instead they Bucks waived Ayon before his contract was guaranteed for the season. I know $1.5 million is a lot of money in the real world but that is a pittance in the NBA for a legitimate backup center.
Renounced the rights to Joel Przybilla (C): Waiving Ayon made even less sense with Przybilla no longer on The 15. I know Pachulia is a much better player than Ayon or Przybilla but I would rather pay Ayon or Przybilla 20% of what they are paying Pachulia since Ayon or Przybilla are are about 80% as effective as Pachulia.
Traded Viacheslav Kravtsov (C) and Ish Smith (G) to the Phoenix Suns for Caron Butler (SF): Given that Butler is a starting small forward, the Bucks got a ton of talent in return for spare parts in this trade but it came at a cost since Butler is due $8 million this season on his expiring deal. I hope the Bucks added Butler in hopes of flipping him to a contender at the trade deadline because the goal this season is to hand out playing time to younger players not guys pushing their mid-30's.
Signed O.J. Mayo (G) to a three-year, $24 million contract: For those that are unable to read between the lines, I would much rather see the Bucks sign one-year deals instead of shelling out large, multi-year deals. In this instance the Bucks took a calculated risk on a player in his mid-20's that could actually improve over the life of his contract. I think the odds are slim (not a word used to describe May's current weight) that Mayo ever turns into a superstar but I would much rather the Bucks pay Mayo instead of their other shooting guards (Monta Ellis and J.J. Redick) from last season.
Traded Luc Mbah a Moute to the Sacramento Kings for two second round draft picks: I am an unabashed lover of The Prince for the mere fact that he is a defensive stopper that can guard almost anyone in the NBA very well. Injuries have limited his effectiveness over the last few seasons but when healthy, The Prince is one of the better one-on-one defenders in the NBA. Despite The Prince's limited offensive game, two-years for $9 million feels about right. I get trying to cut costs but it is hard to reconcile the decision with how much the Bucks overpaid Mayo and Pachulia.
Renounced the rights to Marques Daniels (SG/SF): The Bucks decided to upgrade this spot by signing slightly more expensive players in place of Daniels but I would have just brought Daniels back on a one-year deal for the league minimum to save money.
Traded J.J. Redick (G) for two second round pick: I guess it is better to get something instead of nothing for Redick since he was going to leave as a free agent but when you factor in that the Bucks got two second round draft picks for Tobias Harris and Beno Udrih, the Redick for Harris and Udrih doesn't look very good.
Renounced the rights to Mike Dunleavy (SF): According to various reports, the Bucks wanted Dunleavy to return but he wanted to play for a winner so I can't blame him for signing with the Chicago Bulls.
Signed Miroslav Raduljica (C) to a veteran minimum contract: For how horribly the Bucks messed up the Pachulia instead of Ayon or Przybilla move, they saved themselves slightly with the Raduljica signing. My expectations for Raduljica are low in terms of on-court production but like the contract and extra six fouls he brings to The 15.
Renounced the rights to Samuel Dalembert (C): The Bucks traded Jon Brockman, Jon Leuer, Shaun Livingston, and the 12th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft to the Houston Rockets for Samuel Dalembert, the 14th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, a future second round pick, and cash considerations. Let's not forget that Dalembert said he wouldn't mind playing for the Miami Heat during the playoffs. Keep in mind Dalembert was a member of the Bucks as they were getting swept by the Heat when he made that comment. The Bucks fined and suspended Dalembert a number of times throughout the season so this move was a no brainer. Funny that the Heat thought so little of Dalembert that they rolled the the perpetually injured Greg Oden instead of signing Dalembert.
In a three team deal the Bucks traded the Oklahoma City Thunder the rights to Szymon Szewczyk (C) for Luke Ridnour (G) and a second round draft pick from the Minnesota Timberwolves: The Bucks facilitated a sign-and-trade between the Thunder and Timberwolves so they got a quality backup combo guard and a second round pick for their trouble. I don't mind bringing Ridnour back into the fold, especially because he is the perfect mentor for the young Bucks back court since he is the older version of rookie Nate Wolters.
Signed Carlos Delfino (SG/SF) to a three-year, $9.75 million: Much like Hammond, I've always been a fan of Delfino's game. When healthy, I would much rather pay $3 million for Delfino than $8 million for Mayo. This move would have been even higher on the list but the Bucks are without Delfino's services through at least the first month of the season, if not longer, due to a foot injury
"Drafted" Nate Wolters (G) in the second round of the 2013 NBA Draft: The Bucks actually drafted Ledo and then traded his rights along with a future second round pick for Wolters. Originally I wished the Bucks just held onto Ricardo Ledo instead of trading for Wolters because it cost them a future second round pick despite the fact that they own roughly 500 second round picks in the next dozen drafts. I can't kill the trade because as I discussed in the Ridnour trade, Wolters looks like a potential ten year veteran that could be the 7th or 8th guy on a championship team. As long as Ledo doesn't turn out to be a complete stud, I am fine with the transaction.
Signed Gary Neal (G) to a two-year, $6.5 million contract: The only player on The 15 that played meaningful minutes in the playoffs last season was Neal, which is why I was shocked the Bucks were able to get Neal for such a reasonable price. Neal's shot selection is questionable but that is also what makes him a potential instant offense guy off the bench.
Traded Brandon Jennings (PG) to the Detroit Pistons for Brandon Knight (PG), Khris Middleton (SF), and Viacheslav Kravtsov (C): Some might like the versatility of Middelton's game but I have very low expectations for him so this trade will boil down to how Jennings and Knight pan out long-term. Jennings is a shoot first point guard that did not want to be in Milwaukee so even though Knight has been underwhelming so far in the NBA, I look at this trade as getting something for nothing. If Knight flames out at least the Bucks are not sullied with a high-volume shooter like Jennings. The Bucks already exercised their option on Knight for next season. I would much rather pay Knight $12 million than Jennings $24 million through 2015/16.
Named Scott Williams assistant coach: For how much I hated hiring Larry Drew as a retread head coach, I love adding Williams to Drew's staff. Williams worked in the media at various spots for the Phoenix Suns and Bucks after retiring from the NBA. Last season Williams was an assistant coach for the Idaho Stampede in the NBDL, which was his first real taste of professional coaching. When Williams played for the Bucks he had a sweet baseline jumper that would be a great shot for Sanders to add to his offensive game. Sure guys like Jim Cleamons, Bob Bender, and Nick Van Exel are going to get more acclaim than Williams but he was my favorite Buck of all time besides Big Dog so yes, I am excited to see him on the coaching staff.
Signed Larry Sanders (C) to a four-year, $44 million contract extension: The last two off seasons the Bucks committed long-term to Ersan Ilyasova and Sanders. If the Bucks could somehow morph Ilyasova's offensive game and with Sanders' defensive game into one player, they would have the perfect two-way NBA player. The ceiling for Sanders is much higher than Ilyasova but the floor is also much lower for Sanders. For how good Sanders is defensively, unfortunately he still struggles offensively and always seems to get in trouble off the court. As long as Sanders can keep his off-the-court issues in check and improve offensively, the sky is the limit so I like the calculated risk of the contract extension.
Exercised contract option on John Henson (F): If they choose, the Bucks could have Henson under contract through the 2016/17 season on his rookie contract. I never thought the Bucks would get Henson with the 14th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft but luckily he fell into their lap. Henson has not been a stud by any means so far in the NBA but looks like a front-court starter, which is a pretty nice haul with the 14th pick in a nine player draft.
Signed Jeff Teague (G) to a four-year, $32 million offer sheet: The Jennings/Knight trade never happens if the Atlanta Hawks declined to match the Bucks offer. If you take salaries out the equation I like Teague slightly more than Knight although Teague has a lower ceiling than Knight. When you factor in contracts, I favor Knight just a little more than Teague.
Renounced the rights to Monta Ellis (G): A high-volume shooter is the last thing the Bucks need. Add in that Ellis was one of the worst three-point shooters in the entire NBA and I am happy to see the Ellis-era end in Milwaukee. Sure trading for Ellis cost the Bucks center Andrew Bogut but given Bogut's injury history and their front-court depth, the Bucks are better off long-term without Bogut and Ellis.
Amnestied Drew Gooden (F), which wiped two-years and $13.4 million off the books: Kohl still owes Gooden the money, we luckily just don't have to watch Gooden languish on the bench any longer. In what turned out to be another Dan Gadzurich-esque overpay with the mid-level exception, hopefully Gooden is the last incarnation of
Drafted Giannis Antetokunbo (SF) with the 15th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft: Despite only playing in the second division in Greece, I love that the Bucks rolled the dice by taking The Greek Freak with the 15th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft. Small market teams cannot attract free agents so taking flyers on potential studs like The Greek Freak is a no brainer in my book. With The Prince in Sacramento, if I had to buy a Bucks jersey there is no question it would be The Green Freak's jersey.
I thought Hammond was trying to follow Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey's model of amassing assets in hopes of making a bigger move down the road but there are two problems with that approach for a small market team like the Bucks. One, there is always pressure to put a winner on the court to keep fans going to the games. Two, no big-time free agent will ever sign in Milwaukee. Unless the Bucks are perfectly healthy throughout the season, I could see them severely regressing this season. That would not be the worst thing though because the Bucks need to bottom out and get a Top 3 pick this off-season to build a long-term winner.
Much like I do with The 53 for the Packers, I plan to do the same thing with The 15 for the Bucks. I probably will not update the rankings on a weekly basis unless there is a sudden string of moves over a short period of time. I want to see the Bucks play in-person before updating my rankings so look for updated rankings in late November or early December once I get to see the totally revamped roster in-person.
It is well known by now that Milwaukee Bucks owner Herb Kohl would rather see the Bucks creep into the playoffs as an 8th seed and get swept by the Miami Heat again like they did last year than bottom out. Almost every move this off-season by Hammond looked like another middling move that caused me to try to get #FearTheMediocreDeer trending as a hash tag on Twitter.
Whether you view the moves that Hammond made as an attempt to pacify Kohl's mandate to stay relevant instead of bottom out or middling moves that will help the Bucks long-term, I find a few of the moves sensible but most of them and others downright ridiculous. Here are my rankings (worst to best) of every move made between the end of last season and the start of this season to cobble together The 15:
Hire Larry Drew as head coach: For some reason teams would rather give retread coaches another chance instead of rolling the dice on a young, hungry defensive minded coach. I gave a number of suggestions for where the Bucks should go at head coach, unfortunately Hammond ignored my suggestions.
Signed Zaza Pachulia (C ) to a three-year, $15.6 million contract: The Bucks are paying Pachulia a ton of money despite the fact that they have a bunch of young talent in the front that needs to play in order to see if their potential translates into production. Given how much the Bucks are paying Pachulia, if he sits on the bench then he is most expensive insurance policy in the NBA or will take away valuable minutes from one of the young front court players that should learn on the job this season.
Waived Gustavo Ayon (C): The Bucks could have had a decent, young backup center on the roster for $1.5 million. Instead they Bucks waived Ayon before his contract was guaranteed for the season. I know $1.5 million is a lot of money in the real world but that is a pittance in the NBA for a legitimate backup center.
Renounced the rights to Joel Przybilla (C): Waiving Ayon made even less sense with Przybilla no longer on The 15. I know Pachulia is a much better player than Ayon or Przybilla but I would rather pay Ayon or Przybilla 20% of what they are paying Pachulia since Ayon or Przybilla are are about 80% as effective as Pachulia.
Traded Viacheslav Kravtsov (C) and Ish Smith (G) to the Phoenix Suns for Caron Butler (SF): Given that Butler is a starting small forward, the Bucks got a ton of talent in return for spare parts in this trade but it came at a cost since Butler is due $8 million this season on his expiring deal. I hope the Bucks added Butler in hopes of flipping him to a contender at the trade deadline because the goal this season is to hand out playing time to younger players not guys pushing their mid-30's.
| The 15 |
| 1. Ersan Ilyasova (PF) 2. Larry Sanders (C) 3. John Henson (PF/C) 4. Brandon Knight (PG) 5. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF) 6. Gary Neal (SG) 7. O.J. Mayo (SG) 8. Caron Butler (SF) 9. Nate Wolters (PG) 10. Khris Middleton (SF) 11. Luke Ridnour (PG) 12. Carlos Delfino (SG/SF) 13. Zaza Pachulia (C) 14. Ekpe Udoh (PF) 15. Miroslav Raduljica (C) |
Traded Luc Mbah a Moute to the Sacramento Kings for two second round draft picks: I am an unabashed lover of The Prince for the mere fact that he is a defensive stopper that can guard almost anyone in the NBA very well. Injuries have limited his effectiveness over the last few seasons but when healthy, The Prince is one of the better one-on-one defenders in the NBA. Despite The Prince's limited offensive game, two-years for $9 million feels about right. I get trying to cut costs but it is hard to reconcile the decision with how much the Bucks overpaid Mayo and Pachulia.
Renounced the rights to Marques Daniels (SG/SF): The Bucks decided to upgrade this spot by signing slightly more expensive players in place of Daniels but I would have just brought Daniels back on a one-year deal for the league minimum to save money.
Traded J.J. Redick (G) for two second round pick: I guess it is better to get something instead of nothing for Redick since he was going to leave as a free agent but when you factor in that the Bucks got two second round draft picks for Tobias Harris and Beno Udrih, the Redick for Harris and Udrih doesn't look very good.
Renounced the rights to Mike Dunleavy (SF): According to various reports, the Bucks wanted Dunleavy to return but he wanted to play for a winner so I can't blame him for signing with the Chicago Bulls.
Signed Miroslav Raduljica (C) to a veteran minimum contract: For how horribly the Bucks messed up the Pachulia instead of Ayon or Przybilla move, they saved themselves slightly with the Raduljica signing. My expectations for Raduljica are low in terms of on-court production but like the contract and extra six fouls he brings to The 15.
Renounced the rights to Samuel Dalembert (C): The Bucks traded Jon Brockman, Jon Leuer, Shaun Livingston, and the 12th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft to the Houston Rockets for Samuel Dalembert, the 14th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, a future second round pick, and cash considerations. Let's not forget that Dalembert said he wouldn't mind playing for the Miami Heat during the playoffs. Keep in mind Dalembert was a member of the Bucks as they were getting swept by the Heat when he made that comment. The Bucks fined and suspended Dalembert a number of times throughout the season so this move was a no brainer. Funny that the Heat thought so little of Dalembert that they rolled the the perpetually injured Greg Oden instead of signing Dalembert.
In a three team deal the Bucks traded the Oklahoma City Thunder the rights to Szymon Szewczyk (C) for Luke Ridnour (G) and a second round draft pick from the Minnesota Timberwolves: The Bucks facilitated a sign-and-trade between the Thunder and Timberwolves so they got a quality backup combo guard and a second round pick for their trouble. I don't mind bringing Ridnour back into the fold, especially because he is the perfect mentor for the young Bucks back court since he is the older version of rookie Nate Wolters.
Signed Carlos Delfino (SG/SF) to a three-year, $9.75 million: Much like Hammond, I've always been a fan of Delfino's game. When healthy, I would much rather pay $3 million for Delfino than $8 million for Mayo. This move would have been even higher on the list but the Bucks are without Delfino's services through at least the first month of the season, if not longer, due to a foot injury
"Drafted" Nate Wolters (G) in the second round of the 2013 NBA Draft: The Bucks actually drafted Ledo and then traded his rights along with a future second round pick for Wolters. Originally I wished the Bucks just held onto Ricardo Ledo instead of trading for Wolters because it cost them a future second round pick despite the fact that they own roughly 500 second round picks in the next dozen drafts. I can't kill the trade because as I discussed in the Ridnour trade, Wolters looks like a potential ten year veteran that could be the 7th or 8th guy on a championship team. As long as Ledo doesn't turn out to be a complete stud, I am fine with the transaction.
Signed Gary Neal (G) to a two-year, $6.5 million contract: The only player on The 15 that played meaningful minutes in the playoffs last season was Neal, which is why I was shocked the Bucks were able to get Neal for such a reasonable price. Neal's shot selection is questionable but that is also what makes him a potential instant offense guy off the bench.
Traded Brandon Jennings (PG) to the Detroit Pistons for Brandon Knight (PG), Khris Middleton (SF), and Viacheslav Kravtsov (C): Some might like the versatility of Middelton's game but I have very low expectations for him so this trade will boil down to how Jennings and Knight pan out long-term. Jennings is a shoot first point guard that did not want to be in Milwaukee so even though Knight has been underwhelming so far in the NBA, I look at this trade as getting something for nothing. If Knight flames out at least the Bucks are not sullied with a high-volume shooter like Jennings. The Bucks already exercised their option on Knight for next season. I would much rather pay Knight $12 million than Jennings $24 million through 2015/16.
Named Scott Williams assistant coach: For how much I hated hiring Larry Drew as a retread head coach, I love adding Williams to Drew's staff. Williams worked in the media at various spots for the Phoenix Suns and Bucks after retiring from the NBA. Last season Williams was an assistant coach for the Idaho Stampede in the NBDL, which was his first real taste of professional coaching. When Williams played for the Bucks he had a sweet baseline jumper that would be a great shot for Sanders to add to his offensive game. Sure guys like Jim Cleamons, Bob Bender, and Nick Van Exel are going to get more acclaim than Williams but he was my favorite Buck of all time besides Big Dog so yes, I am excited to see him on the coaching staff.
Signed Larry Sanders (C) to a four-year, $44 million contract extension: The last two off seasons the Bucks committed long-term to Ersan Ilyasova and Sanders. If the Bucks could somehow morph Ilyasova's offensive game and with Sanders' defensive game into one player, they would have the perfect two-way NBA player. The ceiling for Sanders is much higher than Ilyasova but the floor is also much lower for Sanders. For how good Sanders is defensively, unfortunately he still struggles offensively and always seems to get in trouble off the court. As long as Sanders can keep his off-the-court issues in check and improve offensively, the sky is the limit so I like the calculated risk of the contract extension.
Exercised contract option on John Henson (F): If they choose, the Bucks could have Henson under contract through the 2016/17 season on his rookie contract. I never thought the Bucks would get Henson with the 14th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft but luckily he fell into their lap. Henson has not been a stud by any means so far in the NBA but looks like a front-court starter, which is a pretty nice haul with the 14th pick in a nine player draft.
Signed Jeff Teague (G) to a four-year, $32 million offer sheet: The Jennings/Knight trade never happens if the Atlanta Hawks declined to match the Bucks offer. If you take salaries out the equation I like Teague slightly more than Knight although Teague has a lower ceiling than Knight. When you factor in contracts, I favor Knight just a little more than Teague.
Renounced the rights to Monta Ellis (G): A high-volume shooter is the last thing the Bucks need. Add in that Ellis was one of the worst three-point shooters in the entire NBA and I am happy to see the Ellis-era end in Milwaukee. Sure trading for Ellis cost the Bucks center Andrew Bogut but given Bogut's injury history and their front-court depth, the Bucks are better off long-term without Bogut and Ellis.
Amnestied Drew Gooden (F), which wiped two-years and $13.4 million off the books: Kohl still owes Gooden the money, we luckily just don't have to watch Gooden languish on the bench any longer. In what turned out to be another Dan Gadzurich-esque overpay with the mid-level exception, hopefully Gooden is the last incarnation of
Drafted Giannis Antetokunbo (SF) with the 15th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft: Despite only playing in the second division in Greece, I love that the Bucks rolled the dice by taking The Greek Freak with the 15th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft. Small market teams cannot attract free agents so taking flyers on potential studs like The Greek Freak is a no brainer in my book. With The Prince in Sacramento, if I had to buy a Bucks jersey there is no question it would be The Green Freak's jersey.
I thought Hammond was trying to follow Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey's model of amassing assets in hopes of making a bigger move down the road but there are two problems with that approach for a small market team like the Bucks. One, there is always pressure to put a winner on the court to keep fans going to the games. Two, no big-time free agent will ever sign in Milwaukee. Unless the Bucks are perfectly healthy throughout the season, I could see them severely regressing this season. That would not be the worst thing though because the Bucks need to bottom out and get a Top 3 pick this off-season to build a long-term winner.
Much like I do with The 53 for the Packers, I plan to do the same thing with The 15 for the Bucks. I probably will not update the rankings on a weekly basis unless there is a sudden string of moves over a short period of time. I want to see the Bucks play in-person before updating my rankings so look for updated rankings in late November or early December once I get to see the totally revamped roster in-person.
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