Up until a few days ago the only significant moves Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin made to The 25 were two separate trades. Melvin traded away relief pitcher Burke Badenhop and outfielder Norichika Aoki for what amounted to a couple left-handed pitching lottery tickets in Luis Ortega and Will Myers respectively. Towards the middle of last week I even discussed how proud I was of Melvin showing fiscal restraint instead of handing out huge free agent contracts this off-season as a peace offering for what the team put their fans through last season.
Well it was all too good to be true. Late last week reports leaked that the Brewers signed free agent starting pitcher Matt Garza to a four-year, $52 million deal. The Brewers initially refuted that report via Twitter, which gave me hope that Melvin was rethinking whether to break the first of the five rules I gave him for how to build The 25 for 2014. Ultimately the Brewers and Garza agreed to a four-year, $50 million deal could end up being a five-year, $67 million deal. The Brewers ultimately announced the signing at the team's annual fan fest, which was free this year as a peace offering for what the team put their fans through last season.
Before I breakdown the largest contract ever given to a starting pitcher in Brewers franchise history in more depth, I thought I would give a little background on the starting pitching situation for the Brewers before the Garza signing to show why they did not need to overpay yet another free agent starting pitcher. Going into the off-season, four of the five spots in their starting rotation were set essentially set in stone: Kyle Lohse, Yovani
Gallardo, Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada. The fifth spot in the rotation looked like it was going to be a competition between guys currently in the farm system with the strongest candidates being Hiram Burgos, Mike Fiers, Johnny Hellweg, Jimmy Nelson, and Tyler Thornburg. After the Brewers traded for Smith and signed Zach Duke to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. the Brewers had a ton of legitimate candidates fighting for the final starting spot in the rotation and the long relief role in the bullpen.
With Garza on The 25, if healthy, the starting rotation will be Garza, Lohse, Gallardo, Peralta, and Estrada in some order. Given that the Brewers are not really in a win-now mode, I would much
rather see them go into spring training with all their young guys
fighting for the final spot in the rotation. If one of the five odds on starters gets hurt in spring training, pending some drastic change in the performance in spring training, I would give Thornburg the first chance followed by Fiers, Burgos, Smith, Nelson, Hellweg, and Duke.
The first four years of Garza's deal are fairly straightforward with him earning $12.5 million in each of those years. The only real quirks of the first four years of the deal is that Garza deferred $2 million each year that is paid annually on December 15th starting in 2018 through 2021. Besides that, Garza can earn an extra $500,000 each time he starts 30 games or throws 190 innings in a season over the first four years of the deal. If Garza achieves all of that, it makes the first four years of the deal worth $54 million. The fifth year of this deal in 2018 is where this deal gets complicated.
According to Cot's on Contracts, Garza has a $13 million vesting option in 2018 if he meets three conditions in the first four years of the deal: starts 110 games, throws at least 115 innings in 2017, and does NOT end the 2017 season on the disabled list. If Garza does NOT satisfy all three conditions, there are two other potential outcomes. One, if Garza spends an extended period of time on the disabled list during the first four years of the deal, which is defined as 130 days over 183 day period of time, the Brewers can retain Garza's services for just $1 million in 2018. Two, if Garza does not spend an extended period of time on the disabled list the Brewers can exercise their team option to retain his services in 2018 for $5 million.
As I discussed when I reviewed the Aoki/Smith trade, a win on the free
agent market costs $6 million. Leaving 2018 aside for now that means
Garza will have to produce at least two wins above replacement (WAR) a season to
justify his contract from 2014-2017. Garza put together impressive seasons in
2008 (3.3 WAR) and 2009 (3.5 WAR). After that, Garza's WAR numbers
didn't break two besides 2011 (2.8 WAR). Last season Garza registered
1.4 WAR thanks mostly to pitching well
for the Chicago Cubs following a long stint on the disabled list to the start the
season. The Cubs traded Garza to the Texas Rangers but Garza struggled for the Ranger. Since Garza was traded mid-season last year the one silver lining is that unlike when owner Mark
Attanasio signed Lohse to a three-year, $33 million deal last year, the
Brewers did not forfeit their first round pick in the 2014 MLB Draft to sign Garza.
Unless Garza finds a legal fountain of youth that can also keep
him healthy, the Brewers severely overpaid him each of the first four
years of the deal. Given how injury prone Garza has been throughout his career the only good part of the Garza deal is that the Brewers made the $13 million vesting option for the fifth year contingent on Garza staying healthy throughout the entire deal, which seems highly unlikely given his long injury history.
The Brewers are now paying six players on The 25 at least $10 million in 2014: Lohse ($11 million), right fielder Ryan Braun ($11 million), Gallardo ($11.5 million), second baseman Rickie Weeks ($12 million), Garza ($12.5 million), and third basemen Aramis Ramirez ($16 million). Luckily Weeks, Ramirez, and possibly Gallaro ($13 million club option with $600,000 buyout) come off the books in 2015 so the Brewers can clean-up their bloated 2014 payroll.
I expect things to be quiet on the personal front until pitchers and catchers report on February 15th but if the Brewers decide to grossly overpay another veteran like they did with the Garza signing, make sure to check back for full coverage in this space.
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Building The 25 - Melvin shows fiscal restraint
Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin avoided salary arbitration with right-handed starting pitcher Marco Estrada and first/third baseman Juan Francisco when he signed both to one-year deals essentially guaranteeing each a spot on The 25 for 2014. Estrada, in his second year of salary arbitration, signed a one-year deal worth $3.3 million. Francisco, in his first year of salary arbitration, signed a one-year deal worth $1.35 million. Sure either player could have tried for slightly more money via the arbitration process but that usually only results in a slight bump for players of their stature and it comes at the expense of hearing the club rip apart your resume in the arbitration hearing.
More important than the deal just discussed, Melvin signed a ton of guys throughout the month of January to minor league contracts with an invite to spring training, which are exactly the kind of deals that I encouraged Melvin to sign in my advice to him for how to build The 25 for 2014. The three most notable names that Melvin signed to the low-risk, potentially high-reward deals are left-handed pitcher Zach Duke, first/third baseman Mark Reynolds, and first baseman Lyle Overbay.
As a rookie Duke posted a 1.81 era and 3.4 wins above replacement (WAR) in just 14 starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2005. That performance was good enough for Duke to finish fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting that season while current Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks finished tied for sixth. Duke posted a 4.47 ERA and 2.7 WAR in 34 starts the following year. Unfortunately following such a promising start to his career, Duke only posted one other season of above 2 WAR, which happened in 2009. Since then Duke battled injuries and ineffectiveness as he played for a number of teams. There is still a chance that Duke can turn things around given that he does not turn 31 till after the start of the 2014 season, which is why I am fine with Melvin taking a flyer on Duke.
After losing Corey Hart to the Seattle Mariners, the Brewers were left with Juan Francisco, Sean Halton, and Hunter Morris fighting for the starting spot at first base. If I were in charge, I would give Morris every chance to win the starting job at first base even though he struggled a bit moving from AA to AAA last season. Instead of giving Morris a chance, it looks like the Brewers are going to give a pair a guys that played first based for the New York Yankees last season in Reynolds and Overbay every chance to make The 25 this season.
Reynolds posted some impressive offensive WAR numbers early in his career but those came with severe strikeouts problems and defensive limitations that made him a little more than above average major leaguer despite his impressive offensive numbers. The upshot with Reynolds is that much like Duke, he is not going to turn 31 until after the start of the 2014 season so I like that low-risk (one-year, $2 million deal with $500,00 in incentives) signing as well.
The Brewers originally added Overbay to The 25 along with Chris Capuano, Craig Counsell, Chad Moeller, Jorge De La Rosa and Junior Spivey in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks for Shane Nance, Richie Sexson, and Noochie Varner. After two successful offensive campaigns with the Brewers in 2005 and 2006, the Brewers traded Overbay along with Ty Taubenheim to the Toronto Blue Jays for Dave Bush, Gabe Gross and Zach Jackson. I can't say this often but the Brewers went two-for-two in their Overbay related trades.
Ultimately I think Reynolds has the best shot to make The 25 even though the Brewers are more familiar with Overbay because teams rarely sign guys like Reynolds unless they are going to give them every chance to make The 25. The beauty of signing veterans to minor league contracts with an invite to spring training instead of splashing big money on free agents is that if they struggle in spring training, the Brewers can walkaway with almost zero financial ramifications. If a couple of the guys perform well in spring training, the Brewers bought themselves inexpensive veterans for 2014, which is the fiscally prudent move given that 2014 looks like it will be a transition year anyhow.
More important than the deal just discussed, Melvin signed a ton of guys throughout the month of January to minor league contracts with an invite to spring training, which are exactly the kind of deals that I encouraged Melvin to sign in my advice to him for how to build The 25 for 2014. The three most notable names that Melvin signed to the low-risk, potentially high-reward deals are left-handed pitcher Zach Duke, first/third baseman Mark Reynolds, and first baseman Lyle Overbay.
As a rookie Duke posted a 1.81 era and 3.4 wins above replacement (WAR) in just 14 starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2005. That performance was good enough for Duke to finish fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting that season while current Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks finished tied for sixth. Duke posted a 4.47 ERA and 2.7 WAR in 34 starts the following year. Unfortunately following such a promising start to his career, Duke only posted one other season of above 2 WAR, which happened in 2009. Since then Duke battled injuries and ineffectiveness as he played for a number of teams. There is still a chance that Duke can turn things around given that he does not turn 31 till after the start of the 2014 season, which is why I am fine with Melvin taking a flyer on Duke.
After losing Corey Hart to the Seattle Mariners, the Brewers were left with Juan Francisco, Sean Halton, and Hunter Morris fighting for the starting spot at first base. If I were in charge, I would give Morris every chance to win the starting job at first base even though he struggled a bit moving from AA to AAA last season. Instead of giving Morris a chance, it looks like the Brewers are going to give a pair a guys that played first based for the New York Yankees last season in Reynolds and Overbay every chance to make The 25 this season.
Reynolds posted some impressive offensive WAR numbers early in his career but those came with severe strikeouts problems and defensive limitations that made him a little more than above average major leaguer despite his impressive offensive numbers. The upshot with Reynolds is that much like Duke, he is not going to turn 31 until after the start of the 2014 season so I like that low-risk (one-year, $2 million deal with $500,00 in incentives) signing as well.
The Brewers originally added Overbay to The 25 along with Chris Capuano, Craig Counsell, Chad Moeller, Jorge De La Rosa and Junior Spivey in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks for Shane Nance, Richie Sexson, and Noochie Varner. After two successful offensive campaigns with the Brewers in 2005 and 2006, the Brewers traded Overbay along with Ty Taubenheim to the Toronto Blue Jays for Dave Bush, Gabe Gross and Zach Jackson. I can't say this often but the Brewers went two-for-two in their Overbay related trades.
Ultimately I think Reynolds has the best shot to make The 25 even though the Brewers are more familiar with Overbay because teams rarely sign guys like Reynolds unless they are going to give them every chance to make The 25. The beauty of signing veterans to minor league contracts with an invite to spring training instead of splashing big money on free agents is that if they struggle in spring training, the Brewers can walkaway with almost zero financial ramifications. If a couple of the guys perform well in spring training, the Brewers bought themselves inexpensive veterans for 2014, which is the fiscally prudent move given that 2014 looks like it will be a transition year anyhow.
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Building The 53 - My Locks for The 53
Welcome to the last of my seven-part series of advice for how Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson
Offense: 17 players
QB: Aaron Rodgers and Scott Tolzien
RB: Eddie Lacy, DuJuan Harris, and Johnathan Franklin
FB: None
WR: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Jarrett Boykin
TE: Ryan Taylor and Brandon Bostick
T: Bryan Bulaga, David Bakhtiari, Don Barclay, and Derek Sherrod
G:Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang
C: JC Tretter
Analysis: The most controversial of the locks above have to be the tight ends but Taylor's special teams abilities and the 10% chance that Bostick is an athletic tight end in the mold of a healthy Jermichael Finley make them cost-effective assets on The 53 in 2014 since both are still are on their rookie contracts. There is a good chance that center Evan Dietrich-Smith signs a long-term deal with the Packers this off-season, which would give the Packers eight quality offensive lineman without even factoring in guys like Lane Taylor and Greg Van Roten. I see Thompson resigning quarterback Matt Flynn and fullback John Kuhn but letting wide receiver James Jones and tight end Andrew Quarless test free agency. Even if tight end Jermichael Finley isn't on The 53 for the Packers in 2014, assuming the Packers sign EDS and Kuhn, the Packers have an impressive offense for 2014 without even taking into account free agents or the 2014 NFL Draft.
Defense: 14 players
DT: Mike Daniels and Josh Boyd
DE: Datone Jones and Jerel Worthy
OLB: Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, and Andy Mulumba
MLB: A.J. Hawk
CB: Casey Hayward, Davon House, and Jarrett Bush
S: Morgan Burnett, Micah Hyde, and Sean Richardson
Analysis: The Packers have a ton of difficult decision to make along the defensive line given that Johnny Jolly, Ryan Pickett, B.J. Raji, and C.J. Wilson are all set to become unrestricted free agents. Even if all four leave via free agency, the Packers still have four nice young defensive lineman on The 53. There is a good chance that middle linebacker Brad Jones and cornerback Tramon Williams are on The 53 to start 2014 but given that I advised Thompson to cut Jones and get Williams to re-work his deal, I can't make either of them locks. Finally, you will notice that I moved Hyde to safety. If the Packers are able to resign cornerback Sam Shields, moving Hyde to safety is a no brainer. The only thing that gives me pause is if the Packers actually draft Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
Specialist: 2 players
LS: Brett Goode
P: Tim Masthay
Analysis: Much like Jones and Williams, unfortunately I see Mason Crosby kicking for the Packers in 2014 but that doesn't mean that I agree with that decision.
With that, my seven-part series of advice for how Thompson should approach The 53 for 2014 is officially in the books. It may sound crazy but I see this series as my resume if any Packer front-office positions open this off-season. I expect things to be quiet on the personnel front for the Packers for the next month but if Thompson starts making moves to The 53, check back for full coverage.
Offense: 17 players
QB: Aaron Rodgers and Scott Tolzien
RB: Eddie Lacy, DuJuan Harris, and Johnathan Franklin
FB: None
WR: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Jarrett Boykin
TE: Ryan Taylor and Brandon Bostick
T: Bryan Bulaga, David Bakhtiari, Don Barclay, and Derek Sherrod
G:Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang
C: JC Tretter
Analysis: The most controversial of the locks above have to be the tight ends but Taylor's special teams abilities and the 10% chance that Bostick is an athletic tight end in the mold of a healthy Jermichael Finley make them cost-effective assets on The 53 in 2014 since both are still are on their rookie contracts. There is a good chance that center Evan Dietrich-Smith signs a long-term deal with the Packers this off-season, which would give the Packers eight quality offensive lineman without even factoring in guys like Lane Taylor and Greg Van Roten. I see Thompson resigning quarterback Matt Flynn and fullback John Kuhn but letting wide receiver James Jones and tight end Andrew Quarless test free agency. Even if tight end Jermichael Finley isn't on The 53 for the Packers in 2014, assuming the Packers sign EDS and Kuhn, the Packers have an impressive offense for 2014 without even taking into account free agents or the 2014 NFL Draft.
Defense: 14 players
DT: Mike Daniels and Josh Boyd
DE: Datone Jones and Jerel Worthy
OLB: Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, and Andy Mulumba
MLB: A.J. Hawk
CB: Casey Hayward, Davon House, and Jarrett Bush
S: Morgan Burnett, Micah Hyde, and Sean Richardson
Analysis: The Packers have a ton of difficult decision to make along the defensive line given that Johnny Jolly, Ryan Pickett, B.J. Raji, and C.J. Wilson are all set to become unrestricted free agents. Even if all four leave via free agency, the Packers still have four nice young defensive lineman on The 53. There is a good chance that middle linebacker Brad Jones and cornerback Tramon Williams are on The 53 to start 2014 but given that I advised Thompson to cut Jones and get Williams to re-work his deal, I can't make either of them locks. Finally, you will notice that I moved Hyde to safety. If the Packers are able to resign cornerback Sam Shields, moving Hyde to safety is a no brainer. The only thing that gives me pause is if the Packers actually draft Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
Specialist: 2 players
LS: Brett Goode
P: Tim Masthay
Analysis: Much like Jones and Williams, unfortunately I see Mason Crosby kicking for the Packers in 2014 but that doesn't mean that I agree with that decision.
With that, my seven-part series of advice for how Thompson should approach The 53 for 2014 is officially in the books. It may sound crazy but I see this series as my resume if any Packer front-office positions open this off-season. I expect things to be quiet on the personnel front for the Packers for the next month but if Thompson starts making moves to The 53, check back for full coverage.
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Building The 53 - First Look at the 2014 NFL Draft
Four months from today I will post my review of the 2014 NFL Draft for the Green Bay Packers. Odds are that Packers general manager Ted Thompson will add at least 10 new players in the 2014 NFL Draft given that he currently has seven draft picks even before being awarded any compensatory draft picks. Plus we know that Thompson loves to trade down to acquire more draft picks so that could mean as many as 15 new players along with a number of undrafted rookie free agents fighting for spots on The 2013 to open 2014.
I ranked the Top 25 NFL prospects that currently play for the Wisconsin Badgers irrespective of the year they will be eligible for the draft. There is no question that the biggest positional needs (greatest to least) for the Packers are safety, tight end, linebacker, defensive line, offensive line, kicker, fullback, cornerback, wide receiver, running back, punter, and quarterback. Given the Packers' current positional needs, there is a chance that Thompson actually drafts a Badger over the next few years.
Following their loss to the San Francisco 49ers, assuming Thompson doesn't trade up or down, the Packers are currently scheduled to draft 21st in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft. We know that Thompson likes to draft the best player available but given that safety, tight end, linebacker, and defensive line are the biggest needs so I am going to focus on how Thompson could address those needs with the 21st pick in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
Right now it looks like Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Calvin Pryor, or bust given the lack of quality safeties in the 2014 NFL Draft. Ha Ha is a 21-year old junior from Alabama that at 6'1" and 208 lbs is not the biggest hitter but has the skills to start at safety as a rookie in the NFL in 2014. Ha Ha reminds me a lot of Eric Reid, a standout rookie for the San Francisco 49ers. Pryor has essentially the same build as Ha Ha but playing at Louisville as opposed to Alabama didn't prove he can do it on a big stage like Ha Ha did the last three years. This feels a little bit like the the 2007 NFL Draft when the Packers desperately needed a running back so every mock draft had them taking Marshawn Lynch with the 16th pick. Ultimately Lynch went 12th to the Buffalo Bills and the Packers took defensive lineman Justin Harrell, oh dang. I obviously favor Ha Ha over Pryor at this point but we are still very early in the process so that might change by the 2014 NFL Draft. Clearly Ha Ha or Pryor would fill a huge need for the Packers, which is why I would be shocked if the Packers actually drafted either unless they traded up in the first round.
The Packers could use a versatile linebacker in the mold of Brandon Chillar. I know that seems like a weird comparison considering Chillar only had a couple good years in Green Bay but with how much trouble the Packers have covering running backs or tight ends with linebackers and considering all the nickel the Packers play on defense, a hybrid inside/outside linebacker is exactly what the Packers need. I see Anthony Barr, Khalil Mack, and C.J. Mosley all going in the Top 10. A couple of guys that project to be a rich man's Chillar are Ryan Shazier (JR, Ohio State, 6'2", 225 lbs, and 21-years old) and Vic Beasley (JR, Clemson, 6'2", 235 lbs, and 21-year old). Shazier already declared for the draft while Beasley is still undecided. Assuming both declare for the draft, I favor Shazier slightly over Beasley despite sharing a birthday with Beasley.
I ranked the Top 25 NFL prospects that currently play for the Wisconsin Badgers irrespective of the year they will be eligible for the draft. There is no question that the biggest positional needs (greatest to least) for the Packers are safety, tight end, linebacker, defensive line, offensive line, kicker, fullback, cornerback, wide receiver, running back, punter, and quarterback. Given the Packers' current positional needs, there is a chance that Thompson actually drafts a Badger over the next few years.
Following their loss to the San Francisco 49ers, assuming Thompson doesn't trade up or down, the Packers are currently scheduled to draft 21st in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft. We know that Thompson likes to draft the best player available but given that safety, tight end, linebacker, and defensive line are the biggest needs so I am going to focus on how Thompson could address those needs with the 21st pick in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
Right now it looks like Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Calvin Pryor, or bust given the lack of quality safeties in the 2014 NFL Draft. Ha Ha is a 21-year old junior from Alabama that at 6'1" and 208 lbs is not the biggest hitter but has the skills to start at safety as a rookie in the NFL in 2014. Ha Ha reminds me a lot of Eric Reid, a standout rookie for the San Francisco 49ers. Pryor has essentially the same build as Ha Ha but playing at Louisville as opposed to Alabama didn't prove he can do it on a big stage like Ha Ha did the last three years. This feels a little bit like the the 2007 NFL Draft when the Packers desperately needed a running back so every mock draft had them taking Marshawn Lynch with the 16th pick. Ultimately Lynch went 12th to the Buffalo Bills and the Packers took defensive lineman Justin Harrell, oh dang. I obviously favor Ha Ha over Pryor at this point but we are still very early in the process so that might change by the 2014 NFL Draft. Clearly Ha Ha or Pryor would fill a huge need for the Packers, which is why I would be shocked if the Packers actually drafted either unless they traded up in the first round.
The Packers could use a versatile linebacker in the mold of Brandon Chillar. I know that seems like a weird comparison considering Chillar only had a couple good years in Green Bay but with how much trouble the Packers have covering running backs or tight ends with linebackers and considering all the nickel the Packers play on defense, a hybrid inside/outside linebacker is exactly what the Packers need. I see Anthony Barr, Khalil Mack, and C.J. Mosley all going in the Top 10. A couple of guys that project to be a rich man's Chillar are Ryan Shazier (JR, Ohio State, 6'2", 225 lbs, and 21-years old) and Vic Beasley (JR, Clemson, 6'2", 235 lbs, and 21-year old). Shazier already declared for the draft while Beasley is still undecided. Assuming both declare for the draft, I favor Shazier slightly over Beasley despite sharing a birthday with Beasley.
Given that the Packers have four players set to become free agents along the defensive line, despite having a bunch of quality young guys, the Packers still might draft a defensive lineman in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft. Since the Packers drafted defensive end Datone Jones in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft, I would be shocked if they took another defensive end so I will focus on defensive tackles. I see Timmy Jernigan going in the Top 10. That leaves Louis Nix III (SR, Notre Dame, 6'3", 340 lbs, 22-years old) and Ra'Shede Hageman (SR, Minnesota, 6'6", 307 lbs, 23-years old) as options. As long as the Packers can keep Nix motivated, I see him as a long term solution as a space eater along the defensive line in place of B.J. Raji or Ryan Pickett. I got to see Hageman play in-person earlier this year. Although I like Hageman's versatility to play any spot along the defensive line, I have some reservations about him being 24-years old before the start of the 2014 NFL season. Despite Hageman's versatility, I would favor Nix ahead of Hageman.
Moving to the offensive side of the ball, even if Jermichael Finley returns to the Packers next year, you can never have too many athletic tight ends because NFL defenses continue to struggle with containing those types of players. Add in that teams are splitting tight ends out as wide receivers and having multiple athletic tight ends is almost become a necessity as opposed to a luxury. It looks like Eric Ebron will go in the Top 15. That leaves Austin Seferian-Jenkins (JR, Washington, 6'6", 266 lbs, 21-years old) and Jace Amaro (JR, Texas Tech, 6'5", 255 lbs, 21-years old) as options for the Packers. I see Seferian-Jenkins as a more athletic version of Andrew Quarless with the off-the-field issues being an unfortunate common thread between Seferian-Jenkins and Quarless. Despite the off-the-field issues, Seferian-Jenkins's athleticism makes him slightly more appetizing than Amaro.
Assuming all the players I just discussed in-depth are available when the Packers are on the clock with the 21st pick in the 2014 NFL Draft I would obviously thank my lucky starts and draft Ha Ha without thinking twice. If Ha Ha is off the board, here is the order (most to least) that I like the rest: Seferian-Jenkins, Shazier, Nix, Beasley, Pryor, Amaro, and Hageman. Make sure to check back tomorrow for the final of my seven-part series of off-season advice for Thompson where I give the guys that are currently under contract for at least 2014 that if healthy should be locks for The 53 in 2014.
Moving to the offensive side of the ball, even if Jermichael Finley returns to the Packers next year, you can never have too many athletic tight ends because NFL defenses continue to struggle with containing those types of players. Add in that teams are splitting tight ends out as wide receivers and having multiple athletic tight ends is almost become a necessity as opposed to a luxury. It looks like Eric Ebron will go in the Top 15. That leaves Austin Seferian-Jenkins (JR, Washington, 6'6", 266 lbs, 21-years old) and Jace Amaro (JR, Texas Tech, 6'5", 255 lbs, 21-years old) as options for the Packers. I see Seferian-Jenkins as a more athletic version of Andrew Quarless with the off-the-field issues being an unfortunate common thread between Seferian-Jenkins and Quarless. Despite the off-the-field issues, Seferian-Jenkins's athleticism makes him slightly more appetizing than Amaro.
Assuming all the players I just discussed in-depth are available when the Packers are on the clock with the 21st pick in the 2014 NFL Draft I would obviously thank my lucky starts and draft Ha Ha without thinking twice. If Ha Ha is off the board, here is the order (most to least) that I like the rest: Seferian-Jenkins, Shazier, Nix, Beasley, Pryor, Amaro, and Hageman. Make sure to check back tomorrow for the final of my seven-part series of off-season advice for Thompson where I give the guys that are currently under contract for at least 2014 that if healthy should be locks for The 53 in 2014.
Monday, January 13, 2014
Building The 53 - Potential Salary Cap Casualties on The 53
As I discussed in my first installment of this seven-part series, Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson projects to have at least $35 million in cap space in 2014. That seems like a ton of money but at least $5 million of that will be spent on rookies drafted in the 2014 NFL Draft. Add in that the Packers have 20 players currently on injured reserve or The 53, (restricted and unrestricted), that are set to become free agents and all of a sudden that is not that much cap space. That means that every dollar under the salary cap must be used very wisely by Packers general manager Ted Thompson. Even if Thompson uses every salary cap dollar wisely, he might still need to create some cap space by cutting or restructuring contracts of players currently on The 53.
I broke down the five worst contracts on The 53. A number of guys off that list are strong candidates of becoming salary cap casualties before the start of the 2014 NFL season. Thompson strongly favors "pay-as-you go" contracts, which would allow him to walk away from some bad decisions he made in the last few years. The most glaring of those bad decisions involves A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones, the two current starting middle linebackers. Unless both guys are willing to take significant pay cuts, Thompson needs to replace both guys before the start of the 2015 NFL season.
I know Jones just finished the first year of the three-year, $11.25 million deal with $3 million guaranteed but I would start by cutting Jones after June 1st. Jones made $2.5 million in 2013 but his cap number jumps to $4 million next season and $4.75 million in 2015. Jones has $2 million guaranteed left on his current deal so if Thompson cuts Jones after June 1st, the Packers would have $2 million in dead salary cap space that they could spread over 2014 and 2015. It would be a rarity for Thompson to cut a guy less than a year after signing him to a three-year extension but given that Jones looks like just another guy on the field, I think it makes sense in this case.
With the plan for how to handle Jones, the next step is to sort out how to phase out Hawk. Let me be the 10,000th person to say that if Hawk was even a late first round pick that he would be celebrated as one of the best linebackers in franchise history. Since Hawk was the 5th pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, expectations overshadowed his accomplishments in his eight seasons in Green Bay.
Although Hawk put up some nice single-season stats in 2013: 118 tackles (2nd highest of his career), 5 sacks (highest of his career), 1 forced fumble (second highest of his career), and 1 interception (tied for highest of his career); it is the general lack of overall big plays that have undermined Hawk's career. Over eight NFL seasons Hawk only has 18.5 sacks, 3 fumble forced fumbles, 5 fumble recoveries, 9 interceptions, and zero defensive touchdowns.
Following the 2010 season Hawk used his leverage after becoming a free agent to get overpaid when Thompson signed Hawk to a ludicrous five-year, $33.75 million contract with $8 million guaranteed. There is no question that Hawk is durable but that is way too much money to pay a ho-hum middle linebacker. Luckily Thompson was able to renegotiated Hawk's deal last off-season, which involved Hawk taking a $7.5 million pay cut so he carries a salary cap charge of $5.1 million with $1.6 million guaranteed each of the next two seasons. If the Packers cut Hawk this off-season it would result in $3.2 million in dead money and only $1.6 million in dead money if the Packers cut Hawk before the 2015 season. Unless Jones and Hawk are willing to take pay cuts I would cut each of them after the June 1st over the next two years, Jones this year and Hawk next year.
Moving from middle linebacker to place kicker. Mason Crosby is coming off his most productive season in the NFL, which means he is a strong candidate for regression next year since many studies have shown that kicking accuracy, good or bad, does not tend to continue year-to-year. Crosby is signed through 2015 but restructured just the 2013 portion of his contract before the season to make it incentive-based. Crosby ultimately earned every dollar he was owed before the restructure. Crosby holds salary cap charges of $3.4 million in 2014 (8th highest in the NFL) and $3.55 million in 2015 (6th highest in the NFL). If the Packers cut Crosby this off-season it would result in $1.2 million in dead money and only $600,000 if the Packers cut Crosby before the 2015 season. I say draft a kicker late in the 2014 NFL Draft and cut Crosby after June 1st, which will give Thompson over $1 million more in cap space that he desperately needs.
Cornerback Tramon Williams is due $9.5 million with $2 million guaranteed in 2014. That is the final year of the four-year, $33 million with $10.9 million guaranteed that Williams signed in November of 2010 when he was in a contract year. Unless the Packers can get Williams to accept a pay cut, he will have the 8th highest average salary of all cornerbacks in the NFL, which is way too rich for Williams. I would be shocked if the Packers kept Williams past 2014 given all of their young depth at cornerback but keeping Williams in 2014 might preclude Thompson from offering cornerback Sam Shields the big money deal he earned this off-season. I would much rather have five years of Shields than one more year of Williams so unless Williams accepts a pay cut, I would treat Williams just like the Packers treated Charles Woodson last off-season.
Given all of the cuts I advised Thompson to make above, make sure to check back tomorrow for my initial thoughts on what Thompson should do in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
I broke down the five worst contracts on The 53. A number of guys off that list are strong candidates of becoming salary cap casualties before the start of the 2014 NFL season. Thompson strongly favors "pay-as-you go" contracts, which would allow him to walk away from some bad decisions he made in the last few years. The most glaring of those bad decisions involves A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones, the two current starting middle linebackers. Unless both guys are willing to take significant pay cuts, Thompson needs to replace both guys before the start of the 2015 NFL season.
I know Jones just finished the first year of the three-year, $11.25 million deal with $3 million guaranteed but I would start by cutting Jones after June 1st. Jones made $2.5 million in 2013 but his cap number jumps to $4 million next season and $4.75 million in 2015. Jones has $2 million guaranteed left on his current deal so if Thompson cuts Jones after June 1st, the Packers would have $2 million in dead salary cap space that they could spread over 2014 and 2015. It would be a rarity for Thompson to cut a guy less than a year after signing him to a three-year extension but given that Jones looks like just another guy on the field, I think it makes sense in this case.
With the plan for how to handle Jones, the next step is to sort out how to phase out Hawk. Let me be the 10,000th person to say that if Hawk was even a late first round pick that he would be celebrated as one of the best linebackers in franchise history. Since Hawk was the 5th pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, expectations overshadowed his accomplishments in his eight seasons in Green Bay.
Although Hawk put up some nice single-season stats in 2013: 118 tackles (2nd highest of his career), 5 sacks (highest of his career), 1 forced fumble (second highest of his career), and 1 interception (tied for highest of his career); it is the general lack of overall big plays that have undermined Hawk's career. Over eight NFL seasons Hawk only has 18.5 sacks, 3 fumble forced fumbles, 5 fumble recoveries, 9 interceptions, and zero defensive touchdowns.
Following the 2010 season Hawk used his leverage after becoming a free agent to get overpaid when Thompson signed Hawk to a ludicrous five-year, $33.75 million contract with $8 million guaranteed. There is no question that Hawk is durable but that is way too much money to pay a ho-hum middle linebacker. Luckily Thompson was able to renegotiated Hawk's deal last off-season, which involved Hawk taking a $7.5 million pay cut so he carries a salary cap charge of $5.1 million with $1.6 million guaranteed each of the next two seasons. If the Packers cut Hawk this off-season it would result in $3.2 million in dead money and only $1.6 million in dead money if the Packers cut Hawk before the 2015 season. Unless Jones and Hawk are willing to take pay cuts I would cut each of them after the June 1st over the next two years, Jones this year and Hawk next year.
Moving from middle linebacker to place kicker. Mason Crosby is coming off his most productive season in the NFL, which means he is a strong candidate for regression next year since many studies have shown that kicking accuracy, good or bad, does not tend to continue year-to-year. Crosby is signed through 2015 but restructured just the 2013 portion of his contract before the season to make it incentive-based. Crosby ultimately earned every dollar he was owed before the restructure. Crosby holds salary cap charges of $3.4 million in 2014 (8th highest in the NFL) and $3.55 million in 2015 (6th highest in the NFL). If the Packers cut Crosby this off-season it would result in $1.2 million in dead money and only $600,000 if the Packers cut Crosby before the 2015 season. I say draft a kicker late in the 2014 NFL Draft and cut Crosby after June 1st, which will give Thompson over $1 million more in cap space that he desperately needs.
Cornerback Tramon Williams is due $9.5 million with $2 million guaranteed in 2014. That is the final year of the four-year, $33 million with $10.9 million guaranteed that Williams signed in November of 2010 when he was in a contract year. Unless the Packers can get Williams to accept a pay cut, he will have the 8th highest average salary of all cornerbacks in the NFL, which is way too rich for Williams. I would be shocked if the Packers kept Williams past 2014 given all of their young depth at cornerback but keeping Williams in 2014 might preclude Thompson from offering cornerback Sam Shields the big money deal he earned this off-season. I would much rather have five years of Shields than one more year of Williams so unless Williams accepts a pay cut, I would treat Williams just like the Packers treated Charles Woodson last off-season.
Given all of the cuts I advised Thompson to make above, make sure to check back tomorrow for my initial thoughts on what Thompson should do in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
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