I am going to restrict my locks for The 53 to players that are currently signed through at least 2015. If healthy, here are my 31 locks listed how I think they should be on the depth chart for The 53 to open 2015 for the Packers:
Offense: 15 players
QB: Aaron Rodgers and Scott Tolzien
RB: Eddie Lacy and James Starks
FB: None
WR: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams
TE: Richard Rodgers and Andrew Quarless
T: Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari
G:Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang
C: Corey Linsley and JC Tretter
Analysis: The most controversial of the locks above is Tretter. I hate to make too much of one season but Linsley looks like he could be the starting center in Green Bay for the next decade so that hurts Tretter's stock, especially because I see backup offensive lineman Don Barclay being the 6th offensive lineman on The 53 in 2015 even though I did not list Barclay as a "lock". Let's not forget that less than a year ago that Tretter was the presumptive starter at center until he got injured again though. Sure the Packers will most likely bring back Barclay and Kuhn but that is really all that is worth discussing on offense at this point given that Bulaga and Cobb just signed long-term deals. That means that the Packers essentially return their top 15 guys on offense going into training camp last season for 2015 besides wide receiver Jarrett Boykin, which the Packers replaced with Davante Adams.
Defense: 14 players
DT: Mike Daniels and Josh Boyd
DE: Datone Jones and Khyri Thornton
OLB: Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Mike Neal, and Nick Perry
MLB: Sam Barrington
CB: Sam Shields and Casey Hayward
S: Morgan Burnett, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, and Micah Hyde
Analysis: For how much everything is settled on offense, everything is that unsettled on defense. The Packers have a ton of difficult
he was a 3rd round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. I expect that both Letroy Guion and B.J. Raji will ultimately return to the Packers in 2015 but given that they are NOT on The 53 right now, the defensive line is clearly influx. Given that Thompson already cut A.J. Hawk and Bran Jones, the only experienced middle linebackers that are locks for The 53 are Barrington and Matthews. I hope that Matthews doesn't get regular snaps at middle linebacker though given that his best skill is rushing the quarterback. Finally let's take a quick look at the defensive backs. For the first time in a long time the Packers have more locks at safety than they do at cornerback so I could see Hyde shifting back to cornerback if the Packers do NOT resign Tramon Williams and Davon House. As you can see, essentially every position on defense is in flux besides outside linebacker and safety.
Specialist: 2 players
LS: Brett Goode
K: Mason Crosby
Analysis: Thompson added punter Cody Mandell to give Tim Masthay some competition. While I see the Ginger Wolverine ultimately beating out Mandell, it will be one of the more interesting training camp battles. Although I laid out simple plan for replacing Crosby, I see him returning in 2015.
With that, my seven-part series of advice for how Thompson should approach Building The 53 for 2015 is officially in the books. It may sound crazy but I see this series as my resume if any Packer front-office positions open this off-season. I expect things to be quiet on the personnel front for the Packers for the next month but if Thompson starts making moves to The 53, check back for full coverage in this space.
Showing posts with label Melanie Marohl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Melanie Marohl. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Monday, March 9, 2015
Building The 53 - Potential Salary Cap Casualties
Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson started the revamp of the middle linebacker position this off-season when he cut former starting middle linebackers A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones. Both Hawk (five-year, $33.75 million with $8 million guaranteed) and Jones (three-year, $11.25 million with $3 million) were entering the final years of their respective contract, which is usually the most expensive year in terms of salary but carries the lowest amount of guaranteed money and thus the least cap consequences via dead money for cutting a player.
Hawk had a $5.1 million cap hit for 2015 ($2.45 million in salary, $1.6 million in pro-rated signing bonus, $0.8 million in potential roster bonuses, and $0.25 million in potential workout bonuses) but the Packers only have to carry $1.6 million in dead money when they cut Hawk so the Packers gained $3.5 million in cap space when they cut Hawk. Jones had a $4.75 million cap hit for 2015 ($3.25 million in salary, $1 million in pro-rated signing bonus, $0.3 million in potential roster bonuses, and $0.2 million in potential workout bonuses) but the Packers only have to carry $1 million in dead money when they cut Jones so the Packers gained $3.75 million in cap space when they cut Jones. All told that means the Packers gained $7.25 million in cap space for 2015 when they cut two of the most disappointing players on The 53 in 2014 so these moves were borderline no brainers.
Quick side note on the escalating contract values in general. Usually a player's performance declines as they get older with their late 20's being the peak performance years for non-quarterback NFL players. As a result, I would like to see the Packers signing more contract extensions that peak in the middle and then start to decline towards the end. I get the time-value of money and that players might want to renegotiate before the end of the deal since their salary will decrease but most back-loaded contracts get renegotiated anyhow since they contain expensive salaries right as the player's performance starts to decline. I am not sure that Thompson would have kept Hawk or Jones on The 53 for 2015 even at half their cap number in 2015 but it would at least given each of them a chance to make The 53 in 2015.
Thompson does NOT like to cut players from the 53, hence the reason that Hawk was on the roster a couple years longer that he should have been. In fact Thompson's decision to keep Hawk as long as he did lead to a ton of jokes between my buddies and I about what compromising pictures/information that Hawk had on Packer management. Although I expect the big-name bloodletting to end with Hawk and Jones, there are a couple other guys that Thompson should at least consider cutting in order to give the Packers the most possible cap space to retain as many of their top-end free agents as possible.
Given that Peppers carries a lower cap hit of $10.5 million in 2016 and would result in only $2.5 million in dead money if he was cut between the 2015 and 2016 season, I would hold onto Peppers for 2015 and possibly even 2016 if he performs as well in 2015 as he did in 2014. The one thing that gives me pause is the fact that Matthews holds a $12.7 million cap hit for 2015 so that means Matthews and Peppers have a combined $24.7 million cap hit for 2015 but that just shows you the premium that the market puts on high-end pass rushers.
Besides Matthews and Peppers, the Packers have a fair amount of money tied up in their backups pass rushers too given that Mike Neal has a $4.25 million cap hit ($2.25 million in dead money if cut) and Nick Perry has a $2.4 cap hit (~$1 million in dead money if cut) in 2015 so may be I should revise my statement above about the market for high-end pass rushers to just say pass rushers in general. There is virtually no chance that Thompson picks up Perry's 5th year option as a part of his rookie contract so that means Neal and Perry will enter 2015 in the last year of each of their contracts. Perry has been a huge disappointment relative to how disruptive I thought he would be given that Perry was one of my draft crushes heading into the 2012 NFL Draft even before Thompson drafted Perry in the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft. Unless Matthews suffers a career ending injury in 2015, there is no question that he will be on The 53 in 2016. The real question is whether Neal, Peppers, or Perry will be too. Thankfully the Packers have a ton of raw, cheap pass rushers currently on the roster that can step in opposite Matthews down the road.
The last guy that Thompson could consider cutting is placekicker Mason Crosby given that he has a cap hit of $3.55 million in 2015, which is the 7th highest place kicker salary cap hit in 2015. Here is another example of back-end loaded contracts rearing their ugly head given that Crosby is in the last year of his five-year, $14.75 million contract with $3 million guaranteed. Crosby had arguably his best season in Green Bay in 2014 but there is no correlation from season-to-season for placekickers, which means Crosby is just as likely to regress in 2015 as he is to kick as well as he did in 2014. If the Packers cut Crosby they would have to carry only $0.6 million in dead money so they would gain $2.95 million in cap space. If Thompson identifies a strong-legged, cold weather kicker in the 2015 NFL Draft then I would use a late round pick on him. A guy like that would have very little guaranteed money in his rookie contract and an annual salary around $0.6 million so that means the Packers could gain upwards of $2 million in cap space by making that move. Instead of just cutting Crosby right after the draft, I would hold an open kicking competition between Crosby and the rookie. If the rookie outperforms Crosby then I would cut Crosby in favor of the rookie, otherwise if Crosby kicks his way onto The 53 then I would eat the ~$0.1 million in dead cap space for cutting the rookie and keep Crosby.
My guess is that Thompson cuts no other big-names but as I just explained, there are a couple guys that should keep one eye over their should because their large cap hits mean they could join Hawk and Jones sooner rather than later.
Hawk had a $5.1 million cap hit for 2015 ($2.45 million in salary, $1.6 million in pro-rated signing bonus, $0.8 million in potential roster bonuses, and $0.25 million in potential workout bonuses) but the Packers only have to carry $1.6 million in dead money when they cut Hawk so the Packers gained $3.5 million in cap space when they cut Hawk. Jones had a $4.75 million cap hit for 2015 ($3.25 million in salary, $1 million in pro-rated signing bonus, $0.3 million in potential roster bonuses, and $0.2 million in potential workout bonuses) but the Packers only have to carry $1 million in dead money when they cut Jones so the Packers gained $3.75 million in cap space when they cut Jones. All told that means the Packers gained $7.25 million in cap space for 2015 when they cut two of the most disappointing players on The 53 in 2014 so these moves were borderline no brainers.
Quick side note on the escalating contract values in general. Usually a player's performance declines as they get older with their late 20's being the peak performance years for non-quarterback NFL players. As a result, I would like to see the Packers signing more contract extensions that peak in the middle and then start to decline towards the end. I get the time-value of money and that players might want to renegotiate before the end of the deal since their salary will decrease but most back-loaded contracts get renegotiated anyhow since they contain expensive salaries right as the player's performance starts to decline. I am not sure that Thompson would have kept Hawk or Jones on The 53 for 2015 even at half their cap number in 2015 but it would at least given each of them a chance to make The 53 in 2015.
Thompson does NOT like to cut players from the 53, hence the reason that Hawk was on the roster a couple years longer that he should have been. In fact Thompson's decision to keep Hawk as long as he did lead to a ton of jokes between my buddies and I about what compromising pictures/information that Hawk had on Packer management. Although I expect the big-name bloodletting to end with Hawk and Jones, there are a couple other guys that Thompson should at least consider cutting in order to give the Packers the most possible cap space to retain as many of their top-end free agents as possible.
Given that Peppers carries a lower cap hit of $10.5 million in 2016 and would result in only $2.5 million in dead money if he was cut between the 2015 and 2016 season, I would hold onto Peppers for 2015 and possibly even 2016 if he performs as well in 2015 as he did in 2014. The one thing that gives me pause is the fact that Matthews holds a $12.7 million cap hit for 2015 so that means Matthews and Peppers have a combined $24.7 million cap hit for 2015 but that just shows you the premium that the market puts on high-end pass rushers.
Besides Matthews and Peppers, the Packers have a fair amount of money tied up in their backups pass rushers too given that Mike Neal has a $4.25 million cap hit ($2.25 million in dead money if cut) and Nick Perry has a $2.4 cap hit (~$1 million in dead money if cut) in 2015 so may be I should revise my statement above about the market for high-end pass rushers to just say pass rushers in general. There is virtually no chance that Thompson picks up Perry's 5th year option as a part of his rookie contract so that means Neal and Perry will enter 2015 in the last year of each of their contracts. Perry has been a huge disappointment relative to how disruptive I thought he would be given that Perry was one of my draft crushes heading into the 2012 NFL Draft even before Thompson drafted Perry in the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft. Unless Matthews suffers a career ending injury in 2015, there is no question that he will be on The 53 in 2016. The real question is whether Neal, Peppers, or Perry will be too. Thankfully the Packers have a ton of raw, cheap pass rushers currently on the roster that can step in opposite Matthews down the road.
The last guy that Thompson could consider cutting is placekicker Mason Crosby given that he has a cap hit of $3.55 million in 2015, which is the 7th highest place kicker salary cap hit in 2015. Here is another example of back-end loaded contracts rearing their ugly head given that Crosby is in the last year of his five-year, $14.75 million contract with $3 million guaranteed. Crosby had arguably his best season in Green Bay in 2014 but there is no correlation from season-to-season for placekickers, which means Crosby is just as likely to regress in 2015 as he is to kick as well as he did in 2014. If the Packers cut Crosby they would have to carry only $0.6 million in dead money so they would gain $2.95 million in cap space. If Thompson identifies a strong-legged, cold weather kicker in the 2015 NFL Draft then I would use a late round pick on him. A guy like that would have very little guaranteed money in his rookie contract and an annual salary around $0.6 million so that means the Packers could gain upwards of $2 million in cap space by making that move. Instead of just cutting Crosby right after the draft, I would hold an open kicking competition between Crosby and the rookie. If the rookie outperforms Crosby then I would cut Crosby in favor of the rookie, otherwise if Crosby kicks his way onto The 53 then I would eat the ~$0.1 million in dead cap space for cutting the rookie and keep Crosby.
My guess is that Thompson cuts no other big-names but as I just explained, there are a couple guys that should keep one eye over their should because their large cap hits mean they could join Hawk and Jones sooner rather than later.
Friday, March 6, 2015
Building The 53 - Free Agent Shopping Guide
There are two types of players that I would target in free agency if I were Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson: unquestionable studs at their position that could be a franchise changing acquisition or quality veterans on the cheap after the market plays out. The former is NOT likely while the ladder is somewhat likely depending on how the market plays out.
Sure there are some big name like Byron Maxwell (CB, Seattle Seahawks) and Julius Thomas (TE, Denver Broncos) about to hit the free agent market but typically Thompson does NOT engage in bidding wars, which guys like Maxwell and Thomas will create so I see Thompson taking a much more measure approach. The one caveat to that is defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh. Sure Suh had a number of dust up with the Packers (remember the stomps on EDS and Rodgers) but there is truly only one game-changing free agent on the market this off-season and that man is Suh.
Given what I just said, odds are that Thompson sits back and doesn't sign any unrestricted free agent that played for another team besides the Packers for the first week of free agency. Truth be told, I am fine with that strategy. If any of the following players are left after a couple weeks of free agency, I hope that Thompson signs them to one-year deals: Tyson Alualu (DT, Jacksonville Jaguars), Akeem Ayers (OLB, New England Patriots), Jordan Cameron (TE, Cleveland Browns), Adrian Clayborn (DE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Mason Foster (MLB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Brandon Graham (OLB, Philadelphia Eagles), Terrance Knighton (DT, Denver Broncos), Zach Miller (TE, Seattle Seahawks), Jared Odrick (DL, Miami Dolphins), O'Brien Schofield (OLB, Seattle Seahawks), Malcolm Smith (LB, Seattle Seahawks), or Brandon Spikes (MLB, Buffalo Bills).
Clearly NOT all of those guys will be available in a few weeks. Even if they were, Thompson would not even have the roster spots much less the salary cap space to make it happen. You will notice that all of the players above fit into four categories: pass catching tight end, versatile defensive lineman, edge rusher, or athletic middle linebacker. If I had to prioritize any of those positions, I actually think I would put versatile defensive lineman first on the list. That is why I was tempted to throw more money at Knighton or Odrick but drafting well and showing fiscal restraint in free agency has kept the Packers a perennial playoff contender for the better part of the last decade so although it would be nice to lock down either of those guys early in free agency, I don't want Thompson to do that if it means he potentially overpays them for their services.
Let's see how the top end of the free agent market plays out over the next couple days and I will revisit with my thoughts, if necessary.
Sure there are some big name like Byron Maxwell (CB, Seattle Seahawks) and Julius Thomas (TE, Denver Broncos) about to hit the free agent market but typically Thompson does NOT engage in bidding wars, which guys like Maxwell and Thomas will create so I see Thompson taking a much more measure approach. The one caveat to that is defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh. Sure Suh had a number of dust up with the Packers (remember the stomps on EDS and Rodgers) but there is truly only one game-changing free agent on the market this off-season and that man is Suh.
Given what I just said, odds are that Thompson sits back and doesn't sign any unrestricted free agent that played for another team besides the Packers for the first week of free agency. Truth be told, I am fine with that strategy. If any of the following players are left after a couple weeks of free agency, I hope that Thompson signs them to one-year deals: Tyson Alualu (DT, Jacksonville Jaguars), Akeem Ayers (OLB, New England Patriots), Jordan Cameron (TE, Cleveland Browns), Adrian Clayborn (DE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Mason Foster (MLB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Brandon Graham (OLB, Philadelphia Eagles), Terrance Knighton (DT, Denver Broncos), Zach Miller (TE, Seattle Seahawks), Jared Odrick (DL, Miami Dolphins), O'Brien Schofield (OLB, Seattle Seahawks), Malcolm Smith (LB, Seattle Seahawks), or Brandon Spikes (MLB, Buffalo Bills).
Clearly NOT all of those guys will be available in a few weeks. Even if they were, Thompson would not even have the roster spots much less the salary cap space to make it happen. You will notice that all of the players above fit into four categories: pass catching tight end, versatile defensive lineman, edge rusher, or athletic middle linebacker. If I had to prioritize any of those positions, I actually think I would put versatile defensive lineman first on the list. That is why I was tempted to throw more money at Knighton or Odrick but drafting well and showing fiscal restraint in free agency has kept the Packers a perennial playoff contender for the better part of the last decade so although it would be nice to lock down either of those guys early in free agency, I don't want Thompson to do that if it means he potentially overpays them for their services.
Let's see how the top end of the free agent market plays out over the next couple days and I will revisit with my thoughts, if necessary.
Thursday, March 5, 2015
Building The 53 - How to Handle 2015 Unrestricted Free Agents
There are 11 players currently on the roster for the Green Bay Packers that are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents very soon, five on offense and six on defense. The five offensive players are: Bryan Bulaga (T), Randall Cobb (WR), Matt Flynn (QB), John Kuhn (FB), and Scott Tolzien (QB). The six defensive players are: Jarrett Bush (CB), Letroy Guion (DT), Davon House (CB), Jamari Lattimore (LB), B.J. Raji (DT), and Tramon Williams (CB). After reading all the names on the list, you can see that there are a number of very difficult decisions for Packers general manager Ted Thompson.
As a general matter there are four ways to deal with the aforementioned free agents: let them become free agents, sign them to one-year veteran minimum deals, sign them to reasonable long-term deals, or sign them to expensive long-term deals. The Packers have ~$33 million in salary cap space so they could theoretically sign almost all 11 guys but I am more interested in making sure that the Packers keep a balanced roster in terms of how much money is allocated to each position instead of just bringing everyone back because they have the salary cap space. The thought is that the Packers need to make sure any extension they offer makes just as much sense in 2018 as it does right now.
The no-brainers is letting Lattimore leave via free agency. Oh man have things changed for Lattimore. Early in the 2014 season when I was in full hate Brad Jones mode I thought Lattimore might actually be a long-term answer at middle linebacker. Based on how Lattimore played in 2014 before he suffered a season ending injury shows that is clearly NOT the case. This may be too much of a blast from the past for people but a couple season ago Lattimore and Terrell Manning battled for a roster spot. I favored Manning over Lattimore but Lattimore beat out Manning. While Manning has NOT been a great NFL player, I now feel vindicated that the call between Lattimore and Manning was closer than it appeared at the time.
I would tell Bush, Flynn, Guion, Kuhn, Raji, and Tolzien that they have a one-year, veteran minimum offers ready for them to sign. Originally I would have thrown some decent money over a couple years at Guion (say two years, $5 million with $1.75 million guaranteed) but Guion was recently pulled over and arrested after police found an unloaded gun, a ton of weed, and almost $200,000 in cash in his car. I am going to go out on a limb and say that arrest is going to hurt Guion's free agent value.
Clearly I see the market being soft for Bush, Flynn, Guion, Kuhn, Raji, and Tolzien so I would let them all make some free agent visits to gauge their market value because I guarantee that their actual free agent value is much less than their agents are currently telling them it is. If any of those guys can actually sign for more than the veteran minimum, I would not getting in a bidding war if I was Thompson. Instead I would wish them good luck and replenish via the draft or free agency.
That leaves Bulaga, Cobb, House, and Williams. I am going to take a somewhat controversial view at the outset and say that the Packers should NOT break the bank for Cobb. If I were Thompson, I would have put the franchise tag on Cobb, which would have secured his services for $12.823 million for 2015 in Green Bay or elsewhere if Thompson traded Cobb. The floor of what I would take for Cobb in a trade would be a second round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft given that the Packers would most likely get a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2016 NFL Draft for Cobb if he signs elsewhere this off-season. There are rumblings that Cobb wants upwards of $9 or even $10 million a year. If that is the case that would put Cobb and wide receiver Jordy Nelson in essentially the same position financially depending on how much guaranteed money that Cobb gets. That would also mean that the Packers would be committing roughly $20 million a year to their top two wide receivers, which seems a little rich, especially since they have a ton of young wide receivers on the roster in Davante Adams, Jared Abbrederis, Jeff Janis, and Myles White. Collectively all four might not be as good as Cobb yet but the Packers have NOT missed a beat when they lost Greg Jennings and James Jones so it almost seems like addition by subtraction when young wide outs are given a chance, which Thompson clearly has to factor into his decision making process for how to handle the Cobb negotiations.
The only NFL teams with a ton of cap space to make a $9 or $10 million a year deal work are the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders. I know Cobb is only 24 years old and is coming off one of his most productive season in the NFL but let's not forget that his diminutive frame makes him injury prone. In fact with the proliferation of slot guys that can also line-up in the backfield or even occasionally out wide, I see there being more and more players like Cobb available in the NFL Draft given that demand is increasing for these types of players. It might get to the point in five or ten years that slot guys are like running backs now where you need a couple but you never want to invest too much in any one guy. For that reason, I honestly think Bulaga is the most important free agent for the Packers.
I know Bulaga missed 28 games over his five seasons in Green Bay but let's not forget that he was the heir apparent at left tackle just a few years ago. I hope that David Bakhtiari turns out to be the left tackle of the future but let's not forget that is only entering his third NFL season so there is chance that he could regress. Left tackle Jermon Bushrod's five-year, $35.9 million contract with $22.5 million guaranteed that he signed with the Chicago Bears before last season is a good comp. The guaranteed money that Bushrod got will probably out pace what Bulaga gets but five-years for $35 million seems very fair for Bulaga. I know that might feel rich but the Packers have two cheap pieces at left tackle in Bakhtiari and center in Corey Linsely so they can afford to pay Bulaga. Plus with Barclay most likely coming back on a one-year, $1.5 million contract and J.C. Tretter still on his rookie contract, the Packers are in a good position to fill their backup spots along the offensive line without having to overpay in the free agent market.
That leaves House and Williams. Even if the Packers let Bush, House, and Williams leave via free agency they would still have Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, Micah Hyde (if they shift him back to cornerback), and Demetri Goodson as their top four cornerbacks. Surely that would mean the Packers would need to draft a cornerback in the 2015 NFL Draft. Inevitably positions go through a churn so this off-season might be the cornerback churn. There are reports that the Packers are offering Williams two-year deal worth $8 million but he wants a three or four year deal that averages $5 million a year. There are also reports that House wants to be paid like a starter, which I presume means upwards of $6 or $7 million a year, which is way too much for an injury prone cornerback. You could argue that Williams's on-field performance has declined slightly but there is no questioning his durability given that he only missed one game so far in his career in Green Bay. The same cannot be said for House given all of his injury issues but House's three-year ceiling is much higher than Williams but those some injury issues means House's potential floor is much lower too. Much like Nelson getting paid hurting Cobb because there is only so much money that teams can commit to each non-quarterback position, Shields getting paid hurts House and Williams given that Shields signed a four-year, $39 million contract before last season.
For what it is worth, I would be willing to hand out the following deals to keep Cobb, House, and Williams. For Cobb, I would actually sign a back-end loaded deal because of how young he is and how much the salary cap will go up in a few years that averages $7 million a year so that would make it a six-year, $42 million deal with $20 million guaranteed. For House, I don't think I would go much higher than $4 million a year so my ceiling would be a five-year, $20 million deal with $7.5 million guaranteed. Finally for Williams the highest that I would go is $3.5 million a year so I would sign him to a three-year, $10.5 million deal with $5 million guaranteed to give him more assurances that he will be on The 53 for at least two of the three years.
Thanks for sticking around for the fourth installment my off-season advice for Thompson. I know this post was by far the longest one of the off-season season but given how many players on The 53 last season that are set to become unrestricted free agents in just a couple days, clearly Thompson has some tough decisions ahead of him. I am sure that I will revisit this post after the first few weeks of free agency plays out to see if Thompson followed any of my advice. Make sure to check back tomorrow for my free agent buyers guide for Thompson that highlights guys that were not on The 53 for the Packers last year that Thompson should at least consider signing to The 53.
As a general matter there are four ways to deal with the aforementioned free agents: let them become free agents, sign them to one-year veteran minimum deals, sign them to reasonable long-term deals, or sign them to expensive long-term deals. The Packers have ~$33 million in salary cap space so they could theoretically sign almost all 11 guys but I am more interested in making sure that the Packers keep a balanced roster in terms of how much money is allocated to each position instead of just bringing everyone back because they have the salary cap space. The thought is that the Packers need to make sure any extension they offer makes just as much sense in 2018 as it does right now.
The no-brainers is letting Lattimore leave via free agency. Oh man have things changed for Lattimore. Early in the 2014 season when I was in full hate Brad Jones mode I thought Lattimore might actually be a long-term answer at middle linebacker. Based on how Lattimore played in 2014 before he suffered a season ending injury shows that is clearly NOT the case. This may be too much of a blast from the past for people but a couple season ago Lattimore and Terrell Manning battled for a roster spot. I favored Manning over Lattimore but Lattimore beat out Manning. While Manning has NOT been a great NFL player, I now feel vindicated that the call between Lattimore and Manning was closer than it appeared at the time.
I would tell Bush, Flynn, Guion, Kuhn, Raji, and Tolzien that they have a one-year, veteran minimum offers ready for them to sign. Originally I would have thrown some decent money over a couple years at Guion (say two years, $5 million with $1.75 million guaranteed) but Guion was recently pulled over and arrested after police found an unloaded gun, a ton of weed, and almost $200,000 in cash in his car. I am going to go out on a limb and say that arrest is going to hurt Guion's free agent value.
Clearly I see the market being soft for Bush, Flynn, Guion, Kuhn, Raji, and Tolzien so I would let them all make some free agent visits to gauge their market value because I guarantee that their actual free agent value is much less than their agents are currently telling them it is. If any of those guys can actually sign for more than the veteran minimum, I would not getting in a bidding war if I was Thompson. Instead I would wish them good luck and replenish via the draft or free agency.
That leaves Bulaga, Cobb, House, and Williams. I am going to take a somewhat controversial view at the outset and say that the Packers should NOT break the bank for Cobb. If I were Thompson, I would have put the franchise tag on Cobb, which would have secured his services for $12.823 million for 2015 in Green Bay or elsewhere if Thompson traded Cobb. The floor of what I would take for Cobb in a trade would be a second round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft given that the Packers would most likely get a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2016 NFL Draft for Cobb if he signs elsewhere this off-season. There are rumblings that Cobb wants upwards of $9 or even $10 million a year. If that is the case that would put Cobb and wide receiver Jordy Nelson in essentially the same position financially depending on how much guaranteed money that Cobb gets. That would also mean that the Packers would be committing roughly $20 million a year to their top two wide receivers, which seems a little rich, especially since they have a ton of young wide receivers on the roster in Davante Adams, Jared Abbrederis, Jeff Janis, and Myles White. Collectively all four might not be as good as Cobb yet but the Packers have NOT missed a beat when they lost Greg Jennings and James Jones so it almost seems like addition by subtraction when young wide outs are given a chance, which Thompson clearly has to factor into his decision making process for how to handle the Cobb negotiations.
The only NFL teams with a ton of cap space to make a $9 or $10 million a year deal work are the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders. I know Cobb is only 24 years old and is coming off one of his most productive season in the NFL but let's not forget that his diminutive frame makes him injury prone. In fact with the proliferation of slot guys that can also line-up in the backfield or even occasionally out wide, I see there being more and more players like Cobb available in the NFL Draft given that demand is increasing for these types of players. It might get to the point in five or ten years that slot guys are like running backs now where you need a couple but you never want to invest too much in any one guy. For that reason, I honestly think Bulaga is the most important free agent for the Packers.
I know Bulaga missed 28 games over his five seasons in Green Bay but let's not forget that he was the heir apparent at left tackle just a few years ago. I hope that David Bakhtiari turns out to be the left tackle of the future but let's not forget that is only entering his third NFL season so there is chance that he could regress. Left tackle Jermon Bushrod's five-year, $35.9 million contract with $22.5 million guaranteed that he signed with the Chicago Bears before last season is a good comp. The guaranteed money that Bushrod got will probably out pace what Bulaga gets but five-years for $35 million seems very fair for Bulaga. I know that might feel rich but the Packers have two cheap pieces at left tackle in Bakhtiari and center in Corey Linsely so they can afford to pay Bulaga. Plus with Barclay most likely coming back on a one-year, $1.5 million contract and J.C. Tretter still on his rookie contract, the Packers are in a good position to fill their backup spots along the offensive line without having to overpay in the free agent market.
That leaves House and Williams. Even if the Packers let Bush, House, and Williams leave via free agency they would still have Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, Micah Hyde (if they shift him back to cornerback), and Demetri Goodson as their top four cornerbacks. Surely that would mean the Packers would need to draft a cornerback in the 2015 NFL Draft. Inevitably positions go through a churn so this off-season might be the cornerback churn. There are reports that the Packers are offering Williams two-year deal worth $8 million but he wants a three or four year deal that averages $5 million a year. There are also reports that House wants to be paid like a starter, which I presume means upwards of $6 or $7 million a year, which is way too much for an injury prone cornerback. You could argue that Williams's on-field performance has declined slightly but there is no questioning his durability given that he only missed one game so far in his career in Green Bay. The same cannot be said for House given all of his injury issues but House's three-year ceiling is much higher than Williams but those some injury issues means House's potential floor is much lower too. Much like Nelson getting paid hurting Cobb because there is only so much money that teams can commit to each non-quarterback position, Shields getting paid hurts House and Williams given that Shields signed a four-year, $39 million contract before last season.
For what it is worth, I would be willing to hand out the following deals to keep Cobb, House, and Williams. For Cobb, I would actually sign a back-end loaded deal because of how young he is and how much the salary cap will go up in a few years that averages $7 million a year so that would make it a six-year, $42 million deal with $20 million guaranteed. For House, I don't think I would go much higher than $4 million a year so my ceiling would be a five-year, $20 million deal with $7.5 million guaranteed. Finally for Williams the highest that I would go is $3.5 million a year so I would sign him to a three-year, $10.5 million deal with $5 million guaranteed to give him more assurances that he will be on The 53 for at least two of the three years.
Thanks for sticking around for the fourth installment my off-season advice for Thompson. I know this post was by far the longest one of the off-season season but given how many players on The 53 last season that are set to become unrestricted free agents in just a couple days, clearly Thompson has some tough decisions ahead of him. I am sure that I will revisit this post after the first few weeks of free agency plays out to see if Thompson followed any of my advice. Make sure to check back tomorrow for my free agent buyers guide for Thompson that highlights guys that were not on The 53 for the Packers last year that Thompson should at least consider signing to The 53.
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
Building The 53 - How to Handle 2015 Exclusive Rights Free Agents
The Green Bay Packers have two exclusive rights free agents this off-season: Chris Banjo (S) and DuJuan Harris (RB). The reason that both players are exclusive rights free agents are that they each have less than three years of NFL experience, which means Packers general manager Ted Thompson can retain both for slightly more than their 2014 salary via a low-cost, one-year contract.
If tendered for 2015 by Thompson that means that Banjo would earn ~$500,000 while Harris would earn ~$650,000. Banjo appeared in three games for the Packers in 2014 and registered just one tackle. Harris provided the Packers with more production in 2014 than Banjo given that Harris appeared in 15 games but still did very little from the line of scrimmage for the Packers: 64 yards on 16 carries. Going into 2014 it looked like Harris was going to be a revelation on kick-off returns but he managed to amass just 456 ho-hum yards on 22 kick-off returns. Oh what a difference two years makes given that Banjo got much more playing time two years ago and Harris looked like a potential starting running back. This all paints a dismal picture for either player getting tendered but the economics of retaining both via a one-year deal just makes too much sense.
Make sure to check back tomorrow when I give my advice to Thompson for how to handle his three restricted free agents.
If tendered for 2015 by Thompson that means that Banjo would earn ~$500,000 while Harris would earn ~$650,000. Banjo appeared in three games for the Packers in 2014 and registered just one tackle. Harris provided the Packers with more production in 2014 than Banjo given that Harris appeared in 15 games but still did very little from the line of scrimmage for the Packers: 64 yards on 16 carries. Going into 2014 it looked like Harris was going to be a revelation on kick-off returns but he managed to amass just 456 ho-hum yards on 22 kick-off returns. Oh what a difference two years makes given that Banjo got much more playing time two years ago and Harris looked like a potential starting running back. This all paints a dismal picture for either player getting tendered but the economics of retaining both via a one-year deal just makes too much sense.
Make sure to check back tomorrow when I give my advice to Thompson for how to handle his three restricted free agents.
Monday, March 2, 2015
Building The 53 - Projections for Practice Squad Players
The 2014 NFL season has long since come to a close for the Green Bay Packers, which ended with a heartbreaking overtime loss in the NFC Championship Game on the road the Seattle Seahawks. It took me some time to process that loss because of the roller-coaster of emotions that I went through that day. If you told me right before the opening kickoff that the Packers would take the Seahawks to overtime, I would have been ecstatic given that the Seahawks were the presumptive favorites heading into the game. Unfortunately the Packers systematically self-destructed to snatch a loss from the jaws of victory. Given how well Packers general manager Ted Thompson manages The 53, I am sure he was working on The 53 for 2015 even before the start of the 2014 season. Despite that fact, I still feel the need to advise Thompson on how to handle The 53 this off-season.
In the past I wrote one long post about how Thompson should approach the off-season (2011, 2012, and 2013) but given all the moving parts, much like I did last year, I am going to breakdown my advice into a number of post. The first step in Building The 53 for 2015 is evaluating the players currently on the practice squad.
Thompson did not extend any players before the end of the regular season, which means the Packers will carry over roughly ~$8 million of cap space from 2014 to their 2015 salary cap. The Packers have their top 51 most expensive ~$110 million, which leaves them upwards of $33 million in salary cap space for 2015 given that initial reports are that the salary cap will be $143.28 million in 2015. That sounds like the Packers will have a ton of salary cap space but they have 16 players on The 53 in 2014 that are exclusive rights (2 players), restricted (3 players) or unrestricted (11 players) free agents that in less than a week will be available for any new team to sign unless the Packers sign them to a contract extension, which makes every decision about The 53 for 2015 crucial.
Thompson signed nine of the ten players from their final practice squad at the end of January to the 90-man roster: Jean Fanor (S), Tay Glover-Wright (CB), Adrian Hubbard (LB), Joe Madsen (C), Rajion Neal (RB), Joe Thomas (LB), Jeremy Vujnovich (T), Josh Walker (G), and Myles White (WR). For some reason Thompson decided not to sign Alex Gillett (WR) to a futures contract. I find that decision slightly odd given that Gillett has been with the organization off and on for the last two seasons. I don't have any grand illusion that Gillett will become the next Jordy Nelson but he seemed talented enough in his limited preseason snaps to warrant one of the 90 spots on the off-season roster.
Given that Thompson already signed the aforementioned nine guys, I thought it made sense to handicap each guy's chance of making The 53 to start the 2015 season by splitting them into three groups: long-shots, injury fill-in, or decent chance.
Technically all of these guys are long-shots since they were NOT on The 53 to end the season but among the nine guys, there are six guys that look like they are really long shots: Fanor, Glover-Wright, Madsen, Vujnovich, and Walker. Sure there are always undrafted free agents that make The 53 but those spots are becoming more and more scarce because the last few guys cut by Thompson are now routinely added to The 53 for other NFL teams. Plus Thompson does a good job of stacking depth on The 53 so I would be shocked if any of the six guys mentioned even get meaningful preseason snaps. Sadly for those guys families that makes the six guys just discussed very, very, very long shots to even make it past the first round of cuts in the off-season.
There is really only one injury fill-in guy and that is Neal. The Packers presumably like the three running backs that project to make The 53 next season in Eddie Lacy, James Starks, and DuJuan Harris. Sure Harris played sparingly down the stretch last season and was even a healthy scratch a couple games last season but part of that was due to the fact that Lacy and Starks were shockingly healthy most of last season. Given the lengthy injury history for Lacy & Starks, the odds that both of them stay healthy all of 2015 are quite low. Assuming that Thompson does NOT draft a running back in the 2015 NFL Draft, it gives Neal a real shot to make The 53 at some point in 2015.
That leaves Hubbard, Thomas, and White as decent shots to make The 53. The case for Hubbard and Thomas is the same. Both guys are versatile linebackers, which makes them intriguing prospects. That is something the Packers clearly need after they cut middle linebackers Brad Jones and A.J. Hawk. Neither Hubbard or Thomas project as surefire starters at inside or outside linebacker but their versatility reminds me a little bit of Jamari Lattimore. I give Hubbard (6'6" and 257 lbs) a slight edge over Thomas (6'1" and 227 lbs) just based on his Hubbard's size. If Hubbard could somehow legally add 10 or 15 pounds of muscles in the off-season, I would change him from a decent chance to a borderline lock to make The 53.
The final player to discuss is White. I am actually shocked that the Packers were able to keep White on their practice squad for all of 2014 given that some thought White deserved to make The 53 to start the 2014 season. White projects as a quality slot receiver with enough size to line-up outside too. With the wide receiver position in flux this off-season, I could see White making a real push to be the 5th or 6th wide receiver on The 53 next season depending on how Thompson approaches free agency and the draft. If money were no object the Packers would resign Randall Cobb to a mega extension and tender Jarrett Boykin to give the Packers seven quality receivers in Jordy Nelson, Cobb, Devante Adams, Boykin, Jared Abbrederis, Jeff Janis, and White. Fortunately for the guys on the bottom end of that list, there is a salary cap and Thompson already committed to Nelson long-term. That means both Cobb and Boykin could play elsewhere next season, which gives White a great shot at making The 53.
I know a discussion of practice squad guys is NOT very sexy but it is an important one given every couple years Thompson develops a starter off of the practice squad. Make sure to check back tomorrow for my thoughts on how Thompson should handle his two exclusive rights restricted free agents.
In the past I wrote one long post about how Thompson should approach the off-season (2011, 2012, and 2013) but given all the moving parts, much like I did last year, I am going to breakdown my advice into a number of post. The first step in Building The 53 for 2015 is evaluating the players currently on the practice squad.
Thompson did not extend any players before the end of the regular season, which means the Packers will carry over roughly ~$8 million of cap space from 2014 to their 2015 salary cap. The Packers have their top 51 most expensive ~$110 million, which leaves them upwards of $33 million in salary cap space for 2015 given that initial reports are that the salary cap will be $143.28 million in 2015. That sounds like the Packers will have a ton of salary cap space but they have 16 players on The 53 in 2014 that are exclusive rights (2 players), restricted (3 players) or unrestricted (11 players) free agents that in less than a week will be available for any new team to sign unless the Packers sign them to a contract extension, which makes every decision about The 53 for 2015 crucial.
Thompson signed nine of the ten players from their final practice squad at the end of January to the 90-man roster: Jean Fanor (S), Tay Glover-Wright (CB), Adrian Hubbard (LB), Joe Madsen (C), Rajion Neal (RB), Joe Thomas (LB), Jeremy Vujnovich (T), Josh Walker (G), and Myles White (WR). For some reason Thompson decided not to sign Alex Gillett (WR) to a futures contract. I find that decision slightly odd given that Gillett has been with the organization off and on for the last two seasons. I don't have any grand illusion that Gillett will become the next Jordy Nelson but he seemed talented enough in his limited preseason snaps to warrant one of the 90 spots on the off-season roster.
Given that Thompson already signed the aforementioned nine guys, I thought it made sense to handicap each guy's chance of making The 53 to start the 2015 season by splitting them into three groups: long-shots, injury fill-in, or decent chance.
Technically all of these guys are long-shots since they were NOT on The 53 to end the season but among the nine guys, there are six guys that look like they are really long shots: Fanor, Glover-Wright, Madsen, Vujnovich, and Walker. Sure there are always undrafted free agents that make The 53 but those spots are becoming more and more scarce because the last few guys cut by Thompson are now routinely added to The 53 for other NFL teams. Plus Thompson does a good job of stacking depth on The 53 so I would be shocked if any of the six guys mentioned even get meaningful preseason snaps. Sadly for those guys families that makes the six guys just discussed very, very, very long shots to even make it past the first round of cuts in the off-season.
There is really only one injury fill-in guy and that is Neal. The Packers presumably like the three running backs that project to make The 53 next season in Eddie Lacy, James Starks, and DuJuan Harris. Sure Harris played sparingly down the stretch last season and was even a healthy scratch a couple games last season but part of that was due to the fact that Lacy and Starks were shockingly healthy most of last season. Given the lengthy injury history for Lacy & Starks, the odds that both of them stay healthy all of 2015 are quite low. Assuming that Thompson does NOT draft a running back in the 2015 NFL Draft, it gives Neal a real shot to make The 53 at some point in 2015.
That leaves Hubbard, Thomas, and White as decent shots to make The 53. The case for Hubbard and Thomas is the same. Both guys are versatile linebackers, which makes them intriguing prospects. That is something the Packers clearly need after they cut middle linebackers Brad Jones and A.J. Hawk. Neither Hubbard or Thomas project as surefire starters at inside or outside linebacker but their versatility reminds me a little bit of Jamari Lattimore. I give Hubbard (6'6" and 257 lbs) a slight edge over Thomas (6'1" and 227 lbs) just based on his Hubbard's size. If Hubbard could somehow legally add 10 or 15 pounds of muscles in the off-season, I would change him from a decent chance to a borderline lock to make The 53.
The final player to discuss is White. I am actually shocked that the Packers were able to keep White on their practice squad for all of 2014 given that some thought White deserved to make The 53 to start the 2014 season. White projects as a quality slot receiver with enough size to line-up outside too. With the wide receiver position in flux this off-season, I could see White making a real push to be the 5th or 6th wide receiver on The 53 next season depending on how Thompson approaches free agency and the draft. If money were no object the Packers would resign Randall Cobb to a mega extension and tender Jarrett Boykin to give the Packers seven quality receivers in Jordy Nelson, Cobb, Devante Adams, Boykin, Jared Abbrederis, Jeff Janis, and White. Fortunately for the guys on the bottom end of that list, there is a salary cap and Thompson already committed to Nelson long-term. That means both Cobb and Boykin could play elsewhere next season, which gives White a great shot at making The 53.
I know a discussion of practice squad guys is NOT very sexy but it is an important one given every couple years Thompson develops a starter off of the practice squad. Make sure to check back tomorrow for my thoughts on how Thompson should handle his two exclusive rights restricted free agents.
Thursday, September 11, 2014
The 53 - Five Best Contracts for 2014 GBP
In case you missed it, yesterday I looked at the five worst contracts on The 53.
In previous seasons I've had a hard time cobbling together five "bad" contracts, unfortunately there are a number of them on The 53 right now. I hope that Thompson cleans up some of those this off-season by either cutting them or getting them to restructure their contracts to play for less money.
In this same post last year I highlighted four guys in their contract year that were finishing a non-rookie contract extension that I thought were absolute steals: Evan Dietrich-Smith (C, $1.3 million), Robert Francois (MLB, $750,000), James Jones (WR, $3.75 million), and Sam Shields (CB, $2 million). At the end of discussing those four players, I said "if I had to make a predictions today, I think it is much more likely that Dietrich-Smith and Jones will resign with the Packers than Francois or Shields." Well it turns out that Shields is the only guy left on The 53 and I am super salty that EDS is no longer with the team. Sure the Packers got good value for having three of the four guys on The 53 last season but the underlying contracts were not that great since EDS is playing for the Tampa Bay Bucaneers and Jones is play for the Oakland Raiders. Thus it looks like the expiring contracts on the cheap might not be as good as I thought so I did not include them this year.
Let's get to the five best contracts on The 53 for the Packers this season. Keep in mind that this list doesn't even factor in rookie contracts since they are exempt given that they are so advantageous for all NFL teams. Much like last year there are almost a dozen contracts that I could characterize as honorable mention but I am going to focus on the five best contracts on The 53:
5. Julius Peppers (DE/OLB, $3.5 million, 14th highest cap charge on The 53): I already gave the Peppers free agent deal two looks this off-season. First, when I thought Thompson signed Peppers to a three-year, $30 million contract with $7.5 guaranteed. I followed that up when it turns out that Thompson actually signed Peppers to a three-year, $26 million contract with $7.5 million guaranteed. I don't want to get too excited about this contract given that Peppers is 34 years old and the contract is structured in such a way that he only has a cap charge of $3.5 million this season (tied for 23rd highest with San Diego Charger Jarret Johnson at outside linebacker in the NFL) that balloons to $12.5 million next season (would be highest at outside linebacker in the NFL if it was this season) and drops to $10.5 million in 2016. Given how rarely Thompson breaks the bank in fre agency, I had to give Thompson positive encouragement.
4. Tim Masthay (P, $1.2 million, 24th highest cap charge on The 53): It may seem crazy to give a punter contract such praise, especially after all the bad things I said about paying place kickers yesterday but Thompson made up for losing punter Jon Ryan when he signed Masthay to a four-year, $5.5 million contract extension with $1.2 million guaranteed. The business of professional sports continues to become more and more sophisticated so it makes it much harder for Thompson and other smart NFL general managers to sign these types of cost-effective contract extensions. Masthay is currently in the second year of that extension and is just the 17th highest paid punter in the NFL with every punter in the Top 10 (in terms of cap hit for 2014) making more than $2 million so $1.2 million this season for Masthay almost seems cheap given the market for punters.
3. Clay Matthews (OLB, $10.9 million, 2nd highest cap charge on The 53): The upside is that it looks like Matthews finally has a legitimate pass rusher lining up opposite of him in Peppers. The downside is that odds are low that Matthews will be healthy for the entire season given that Matthews missed just two games in his first three seasons in the NFL but missed nine games over the last two seasons. Plus, the cap hit for Matthews jumped from $6.7 million in 2013 to $10.9 this season. There are even bigger cap holds for Matthews over the next few seasons so the Packers need to do everything possible to keep Matthews healthy going forward. Otherwise I could see Matthews dropping off the "best" contract list over the next few years.
2. Sam Shields (CB, $5.6 million, 6th highest cap charge on The 53): When Thompson signed cornerback Tramon Williams to a four-year, $33 million contract extension with $10.9 guaranteed, I thought it was a steal. Sadly the last year of big extensions like that are expensive unless teams can renegotiate those deals. Case and point, the Packers are paying Williams $9.5 million this season, which is the 3rd highest cap charge on The 53. Going into last season I said that Williams had the worst contract on The 53. Williams picked things up last year and is on an expiring contract, which is why he is not on either list this season. You might be asking why I had such a lengthy discussion of Williams under what was supposed to be a discussion of Shields. Well I hope the Williams contract is not a sign of things to come for Shields given that Thompson signed Shields to a four-year, $39 million contract extension with $12.5 guaranteed. This is just the first year of the extension so the Packers and Shields are still in the honeymoon stage but that honeymoon will be over soon when Shields is owed $12.1 million in each of the last two years of his contract in 2016 and 2017. One final point of comparison, Nelson and Shields are two of the five best players on The 53. Nelson and Shields both signed very similar contract extension in the last year, which might make some ask how Nelson could have the 5th worst contract on The 53 while Shields has the second best contract on The 53. Basically I just think wide receivers are more fungible than cornerbacks, which is even more evident when Aaron Rodgers is your quarterback.
1. Aaron Rodgers (QB, $17.5 million, highest cap charge on The 53): Last year when I discussed why Rodgers had the best contract on The 53 I gave a very detailed breakdown of the two contract extensions that Rodgers signed with the Packers. The Packers saw how much they struggled without Rodgers under center given that they went 2-4-1 with Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien, and Seneca Wallace at quarterback in 2013. So yes, even though the cap hit for Rodgers went from $11.6 million in 2013 to $17.5 million this season, he is still the best contract on The 53 by a mile. Oh and if you want to know how cost-effective Rodgers is for the Packers, keep in mind that he has only the 6th highest cap hit at quarterback in the NFL this season. You might think guys like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have a higher cap hit that Rodgers but that is not the case. Here are the quarterbacks that have a higher cap hit than Rodgers this year: Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, and Sam Bradford. That's right, Mr. IR himself Sam Brandford has a higher cap hit then Rodgers this year.
As the contracts discussed above show, the Packers are in pretty good financial shape this season save for a few slight overpays by Thompson, which is why the Packers won Super Bowl XLV and have been a perennial playoff team for the last half dozen years besides 2008.
Again a special thanks to Sportrac for their detailed NFL salary numbers, which made this post possible. Check back tomorrow when I finally finish my five-part season preview for the 2014 Packers with my initial rankings of The 53.
| Review of The 53 |
| Initial Review of the Roster Initial Review of the Practice Squad Five Most Overpaid Five Most Underpaid Initial Rankings of the Roster |
In this same post last year I highlighted four guys in their contract year that were finishing a non-rookie contract extension that I thought were absolute steals: Evan Dietrich-Smith (C, $1.3 million), Robert Francois (MLB, $750,000), James Jones (WR, $3.75 million), and Sam Shields (CB, $2 million). At the end of discussing those four players, I said "if I had to make a predictions today, I think it is much more likely that Dietrich-Smith and Jones will resign with the Packers than Francois or Shields." Well it turns out that Shields is the only guy left on The 53 and I am super salty that EDS is no longer with the team. Sure the Packers got good value for having three of the four guys on The 53 last season but the underlying contracts were not that great since EDS is playing for the Tampa Bay Bucaneers and Jones is play for the Oakland Raiders. Thus it looks like the expiring contracts on the cheap might not be as good as I thought so I did not include them this year.
Let's get to the five best contracts on The 53 for the Packers this season. Keep in mind that this list doesn't even factor in rookie contracts since they are exempt given that they are so advantageous for all NFL teams. Much like last year there are almost a dozen contracts that I could characterize as honorable mention but I am going to focus on the five best contracts on The 53:
5. Julius Peppers (DE/OLB, $3.5 million, 14th highest cap charge on The 53): I already gave the Peppers free agent deal two looks this off-season. First, when I thought Thompson signed Peppers to a three-year, $30 million contract with $7.5 guaranteed. I followed that up when it turns out that Thompson actually signed Peppers to a three-year, $26 million contract with $7.5 million guaranteed. I don't want to get too excited about this contract given that Peppers is 34 years old and the contract is structured in such a way that he only has a cap charge of $3.5 million this season (tied for 23rd highest with San Diego Charger Jarret Johnson at outside linebacker in the NFL) that balloons to $12.5 million next season (would be highest at outside linebacker in the NFL if it was this season) and drops to $10.5 million in 2016. Given how rarely Thompson breaks the bank in fre agency, I had to give Thompson positive encouragement.
4. Tim Masthay (P, $1.2 million, 24th highest cap charge on The 53): It may seem crazy to give a punter contract such praise, especially after all the bad things I said about paying place kickers yesterday but Thompson made up for losing punter Jon Ryan when he signed Masthay to a four-year, $5.5 million contract extension with $1.2 million guaranteed. The business of professional sports continues to become more and more sophisticated so it makes it much harder for Thompson and other smart NFL general managers to sign these types of cost-effective contract extensions. Masthay is currently in the second year of that extension and is just the 17th highest paid punter in the NFL with every punter in the Top 10 (in terms of cap hit for 2014) making more than $2 million so $1.2 million this season for Masthay almost seems cheap given the market for punters.
3. Clay Matthews (OLB, $10.9 million, 2nd highest cap charge on The 53): The upside is that it looks like Matthews finally has a legitimate pass rusher lining up opposite of him in Peppers. The downside is that odds are low that Matthews will be healthy for the entire season given that Matthews missed just two games in his first three seasons in the NFL but missed nine games over the last two seasons. Plus, the cap hit for Matthews jumped from $6.7 million in 2013 to $10.9 this season. There are even bigger cap holds for Matthews over the next few seasons so the Packers need to do everything possible to keep Matthews healthy going forward. Otherwise I could see Matthews dropping off the "best" contract list over the next few years.
2. Sam Shields (CB, $5.6 million, 6th highest cap charge on The 53): When Thompson signed cornerback Tramon Williams to a four-year, $33 million contract extension with $10.9 guaranteed, I thought it was a steal. Sadly the last year of big extensions like that are expensive unless teams can renegotiate those deals. Case and point, the Packers are paying Williams $9.5 million this season, which is the 3rd highest cap charge on The 53. Going into last season I said that Williams had the worst contract on The 53. Williams picked things up last year and is on an expiring contract, which is why he is not on either list this season. You might be asking why I had such a lengthy discussion of Williams under what was supposed to be a discussion of Shields. Well I hope the Williams contract is not a sign of things to come for Shields given that Thompson signed Shields to a four-year, $39 million contract extension with $12.5 guaranteed. This is just the first year of the extension so the Packers and Shields are still in the honeymoon stage but that honeymoon will be over soon when Shields is owed $12.1 million in each of the last two years of his contract in 2016 and 2017. One final point of comparison, Nelson and Shields are two of the five best players on The 53. Nelson and Shields both signed very similar contract extension in the last year, which might make some ask how Nelson could have the 5th worst contract on The 53 while Shields has the second best contract on The 53. Basically I just think wide receivers are more fungible than cornerbacks, which is even more evident when Aaron Rodgers is your quarterback.
1. Aaron Rodgers (QB, $17.5 million, highest cap charge on The 53): Last year when I discussed why Rodgers had the best contract on The 53 I gave a very detailed breakdown of the two contract extensions that Rodgers signed with the Packers. The Packers saw how much they struggled without Rodgers under center given that they went 2-4-1 with Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien, and Seneca Wallace at quarterback in 2013. So yes, even though the cap hit for Rodgers went from $11.6 million in 2013 to $17.5 million this season, he is still the best contract on The 53 by a mile. Oh and if you want to know how cost-effective Rodgers is for the Packers, keep in mind that he has only the 6th highest cap hit at quarterback in the NFL this season. You might think guys like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have a higher cap hit that Rodgers but that is not the case. Here are the quarterbacks that have a higher cap hit than Rodgers this year: Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, and Sam Bradford. That's right, Mr. IR himself Sam Brandford has a higher cap hit then Rodgers this year.
As the contracts discussed above show, the Packers are in pretty good financial shape this season save for a few slight overpays by Thompson, which is why the Packers won Super Bowl XLV and have been a perennial playoff team for the last half dozen years besides 2008.
Again a special thanks to Sportrac for their detailed NFL salary numbers, which made this post possible. Check back tomorrow when I finally finish my five-part season preview for the 2014 Packers with my initial rankings of The 53.
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
The 53 - Five Worst Contracts for 2014 GBP
Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson finalized the first incarnation of The 53 on Saturday. I say first incarnation because much like last year, just a few days after finalizing The 53, Thompson shook up The 53. Last year Thompson made a change at backup quarterback, this year injuries forced Thompson to make changes at center.
Thompson normally is very deliberate in how he Builds The 53 but injuries have forced Thompson to change his approach over the last few years. In what feels like a flurry of off-season signings, Thompson signed not one but two free agents that played for other NFC North teams last season. Thompson favors the draft and develop method over splashing cash in free agency but with such meager returns from the draft the last few years (2011, 2012, and 2013), Thompson was basically forced to upgrade The 53 via free agency so let's not give him too much credit.
Thompson rolled over roughly $10 million in cap space from last season, which is very important given that he has just under $9 million in cap space right now. Although it looks like the Packers have a fair amount of salary cap room, they will need to use it wisely because they have a number of quality starters* and backups** that are set to become free agents this off-season.
Two years ago I dealt with the five worst and five best contract together. Since these posts get long, I decided to split them up last year into the five worst and the five best contracts on The 53. I am going to follow that same approach again this year. Today let's look at the five worst contracts on The 53:
5. Jordy Nelson (WR, $5.9 million, 5th highest cap charge on The 53): Going into this season the top three wide receivers on The 53: Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Jarrett Boykin were set to become free agents. There is no question that Nelson is the most accomplished of the three but he is also the oldest. Thompson signed Nelson to a four-year, $39 million extension with $11.5 million guarnateed on the eve of training camp, which is much richer than the four-year, $14 million contract with $5 million guaranteed that was set to expire at the end of the 2014 season. Nelson's cap number actually goes down next season to $4.6 but then jumps up for the following three years: $8.8 million in 2016, $11.5 million in 2017, and $12.5 million in 2018. Sure the cap is set to go up in 2015 or 2016 but that does not justify back-loading this deal as much as Thompson did. Given Cobb's injury issues, if he signs an extension with the Packers I would expect that it will be slightly less expensive than Nelson's recent extension but probably only a few million less. Boykin is the tougher call given that Thompson drafted three wide receivers in the 2014 NFL Draft that are borderline locks for The 53 in 2015. Unless Boykin takes a below market deal for a player of his caliber (e.g. only averages $2 million a year with very little guaranteed), I see him play playing elsewhere in 2015. Nelson has just the 16th highest wide receiver salary in the NFL this season, which makes his contract look reasonable this season so I hope you realize that this is more of a commentary on the structure of the deal as well as the depth that the Packers have at wide receiver as opposed to a shot at Nelson.
4. Derek Sherrod (OT, $2.1 million salary, 16th highest cap charge on The 53): When the Packers lost backup offensive lineman Don Barclay for the season it meant that Sherrod became the backup at left and right tackle. When right tackle Bryan Bulaga went down with a knee injury in the regular season opener on the road against the Seattle Seahawks, the Packers were forced to play Sherrod and he struggled mightily. I know that Seattle is arguably the toughest stadium to play in and the Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl champs but Thompson certainly expected more out of Sherrod when he drafted him with the 32nd pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. Unfortunately it looks like Sherrod is the second coming of Marshall Newhouse instead of Chad Clifton, which makes the long-term diagnosis on Bulaga's knee injury very important. Thankfully Thompson can let Sherrod leave via free agency after this season while the rest of the guys on this list are signed past this season.
3. Morgan Burnett (S, $4.8 million salary, 9th highest cap charge on The 53): Oh how the mighty have fallen. I was a total Burnett supporter going into 2013. In fact I liked Burnett so much that I actually had his four-year, $24.75 million contract extension with $8.25 million guaranteed that he signed before the 2014 season ranked as the 4th best contract on The 53 last season. This might be a bit of an over reaction to one bad season since Burnett and the rest of the safeties on The 53 last year struggled but now the Packers have two much more cost-effective options at safety in Micah Hyde (moved from cornerback to safety this off-season) and rookie Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (my reasonable draft crush from the 2014 NFL Draft). Given that Burnett is just 25 years old, I don't see Thompson cutting Burnett after this season unless Ha Ha and Hyde are absolute studs while Burnett completely struggles again this year but I wonder whether it will trigger a A.J. Hawk-esque pay cut down the road for Burnett if he wants to stay in Green Bay through the end of his contract that currently expires after the 2017 season.
2. Mason Crosby (K, $3.4 million salary, 15th highest cap charge on The 53): Before the 2011 season Thompson signed Crosby to a five-years, $14.75 million contract with $3 million guaranteed. Last season Crosby agreed to forgo guaranteed money with the option to earn the money back via performance bonuses because of how close he was to getting cut. Crosby put together arguably his best season in Green Bay but let's not forget that there have been a number of studies that show there is no year-over-year correlation between kicker performance. Thus a Top 5 kicker aka 2013 Crosby is just as likely to be a bottom five kicker aka 2012 Crosby. Right now Crosby is the 4th highest paid kicker in the NFL and sadly has regression written all over him for this season. If I were Thompson, next off-season I would draft a kicker late or sign an undrafted rookie free agent to create a kicking competition in training camp. If Crosby is out-kicked by the other kicker, the Packers would only have $600,000 in dead money if they cut him but would be able to save over $2 million in salary at the kicker position given that Crosby is owed $3.5 million in 2015 because a rookie kicker would make around $500,000. As you can tell, I hope 2014 is Crosby's last season kicking for the Packers.
1. Brad Jones (MLB, $3.9 million salary, 10th highest cap charge on The 53): I had Jones pegged for the worst contract on The 53 even before he was the single worst defender on the field against the Seattle Seahawks in the regular season opener. Last year I thought Jones only had the 4th worst contract on The 53 but Jones is now clearly in a race to the bottom with each passing day the three-year, $11.75 million contract that Thompson gave Jones continues to look worse and worse. Just to add insult to the salary cap, the Packers are paying middle linebacker Jamari Lattimore $1.4 million in 2014 to backup Jones. This off-season Lattimore is an unrestricted free agent. I don't see Lattimore breaking the bank this off-season but will mostly likely command enough that Thompson will have to choose whether Jones deserves a spot on The 53 or should make way for a Lattimore extension. I clearly favor Lattimore or even rookie Carl Bradford in 2015 over Jones. If Thompson doubles down on stupid by keeping Jones around for 2015, it will most likely be at the expense of Lattimore.
A special thanks to Sportrac for their detailed NFL salary numbers, which made this post possible. With the bad contracts out of the way, make sure to check tomorrow for my look at the five best contracts on The 53.
Footnotes:
* = Bryan Bulaga (OT), Randall Cobb (WR), John Kuhn (FB), B.J. Raji (DT), and Tramon Williams (CB).
** = Don Barclay (OT), Jarrett Boykin (WR), Jarett Bush (CB), Matt Flynn (QB), Letroy Guion (DT), DuJuan Harris (RB), Davon House (CB), Jamari Lattimore (MLB), Sean Richardson (S), Derek Sherrod (OT), Ryan Taylor (TE), and Scott Tolzien (QB).
| Review of The 53 |
| Initial Review of the Roster Initial Review of the Practice Squad Five Most Overpaid Five Most Underpaid Initial Rankings of the Roster |
Thompson rolled over roughly $10 million in cap space from last season, which is very important given that he has just under $9 million in cap space right now. Although it looks like the Packers have a fair amount of salary cap room, they will need to use it wisely because they have a number of quality starters* and backups** that are set to become free agents this off-season.
Two years ago I dealt with the five worst and five best contract together. Since these posts get long, I decided to split them up last year into the five worst and the five best contracts on The 53. I am going to follow that same approach again this year. Today let's look at the five worst contracts on The 53:
5. Jordy Nelson (WR, $5.9 million, 5th highest cap charge on The 53): Going into this season the top three wide receivers on The 53: Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Jarrett Boykin were set to become free agents. There is no question that Nelson is the most accomplished of the three but he is also the oldest. Thompson signed Nelson to a four-year, $39 million extension with $11.5 million guarnateed on the eve of training camp, which is much richer than the four-year, $14 million contract with $5 million guaranteed that was set to expire at the end of the 2014 season. Nelson's cap number actually goes down next season to $4.6 but then jumps up for the following three years: $8.8 million in 2016, $11.5 million in 2017, and $12.5 million in 2018. Sure the cap is set to go up in 2015 or 2016 but that does not justify back-loading this deal as much as Thompson did. Given Cobb's injury issues, if he signs an extension with the Packers I would expect that it will be slightly less expensive than Nelson's recent extension but probably only a few million less. Boykin is the tougher call given that Thompson drafted three wide receivers in the 2014 NFL Draft that are borderline locks for The 53 in 2015. Unless Boykin takes a below market deal for a player of his caliber (e.g. only averages $2 million a year with very little guaranteed), I see him play playing elsewhere in 2015. Nelson has just the 16th highest wide receiver salary in the NFL this season, which makes his contract look reasonable this season so I hope you realize that this is more of a commentary on the structure of the deal as well as the depth that the Packers have at wide receiver as opposed to a shot at Nelson.
4. Derek Sherrod (OT, $2.1 million salary, 16th highest cap charge on The 53): When the Packers lost backup offensive lineman Don Barclay for the season it meant that Sherrod became the backup at left and right tackle. When right tackle Bryan Bulaga went down with a knee injury in the regular season opener on the road against the Seattle Seahawks, the Packers were forced to play Sherrod and he struggled mightily. I know that Seattle is arguably the toughest stadium to play in and the Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl champs but Thompson certainly expected more out of Sherrod when he drafted him with the 32nd pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. Unfortunately it looks like Sherrod is the second coming of Marshall Newhouse instead of Chad Clifton, which makes the long-term diagnosis on Bulaga's knee injury very important. Thankfully Thompson can let Sherrod leave via free agency after this season while the rest of the guys on this list are signed past this season.
3. Morgan Burnett (S, $4.8 million salary, 9th highest cap charge on The 53): Oh how the mighty have fallen. I was a total Burnett supporter going into 2013. In fact I liked Burnett so much that I actually had his four-year, $24.75 million contract extension with $8.25 million guaranteed that he signed before the 2014 season ranked as the 4th best contract on The 53 last season. This might be a bit of an over reaction to one bad season since Burnett and the rest of the safeties on The 53 last year struggled but now the Packers have two much more cost-effective options at safety in Micah Hyde (moved from cornerback to safety this off-season) and rookie Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (my reasonable draft crush from the 2014 NFL Draft). Given that Burnett is just 25 years old, I don't see Thompson cutting Burnett after this season unless Ha Ha and Hyde are absolute studs while Burnett completely struggles again this year but I wonder whether it will trigger a A.J. Hawk-esque pay cut down the road for Burnett if he wants to stay in Green Bay through the end of his contract that currently expires after the 2017 season.
2. Mason Crosby (K, $3.4 million salary, 15th highest cap charge on The 53): Before the 2011 season Thompson signed Crosby to a five-years, $14.75 million contract with $3 million guaranteed. Last season Crosby agreed to forgo guaranteed money with the option to earn the money back via performance bonuses because of how close he was to getting cut. Crosby put together arguably his best season in Green Bay but let's not forget that there have been a number of studies that show there is no year-over-year correlation between kicker performance. Thus a Top 5 kicker aka 2013 Crosby is just as likely to be a bottom five kicker aka 2012 Crosby. Right now Crosby is the 4th highest paid kicker in the NFL and sadly has regression written all over him for this season. If I were Thompson, next off-season I would draft a kicker late or sign an undrafted rookie free agent to create a kicking competition in training camp. If Crosby is out-kicked by the other kicker, the Packers would only have $600,000 in dead money if they cut him but would be able to save over $2 million in salary at the kicker position given that Crosby is owed $3.5 million in 2015 because a rookie kicker would make around $500,000. As you can tell, I hope 2014 is Crosby's last season kicking for the Packers.
1. Brad Jones (MLB, $3.9 million salary, 10th highest cap charge on The 53): I had Jones pegged for the worst contract on The 53 even before he was the single worst defender on the field against the Seattle Seahawks in the regular season opener. Last year I thought Jones only had the 4th worst contract on The 53 but Jones is now clearly in a race to the bottom with each passing day the three-year, $11.75 million contract that Thompson gave Jones continues to look worse and worse. Just to add insult to the salary cap, the Packers are paying middle linebacker Jamari Lattimore $1.4 million in 2014 to backup Jones. This off-season Lattimore is an unrestricted free agent. I don't see Lattimore breaking the bank this off-season but will mostly likely command enough that Thompson will have to choose whether Jones deserves a spot on The 53 or should make way for a Lattimore extension. I clearly favor Lattimore or even rookie Carl Bradford in 2015 over Jones. If Thompson doubles down on stupid by keeping Jones around for 2015, it will most likely be at the expense of Lattimore.
A special thanks to Sportrac for their detailed NFL salary numbers, which made this post possible. With the bad contracts out of the way, make sure to check tomorrow for my look at the five best contracts on The 53.
Footnotes:
* = Bryan Bulaga (OT), Randall Cobb (WR), John Kuhn (FB), B.J. Raji (DT), and Tramon Williams (CB).
** = Don Barclay (OT), Jarrett Boykin (WR), Jarett Bush (CB), Matt Flynn (QB), Letroy Guion (DT), DuJuan Harris (RB), Davon House (CB), Jamari Lattimore (MLB), Sean Richardson (S), Derek Sherrod (OT), Ryan Taylor (TE), and Scott Tolzien (QB).
Friday, July 25, 2014
Building The 53 - The Last Three Roster Spots
Welcome to the third and final installment of my look at the current roster for the 2014 Green Bay Packers heading into the start of training camp this weekend. As I said earlier this week there are 35 locks* and 15 players that will most likely* make The 53. That leave just three spots truly up for grabs, which is five less than last year.
Although the Packers usually keep a few undrafted rookie free agents (think Andy Mulumba), it is too hard to tell what players are going to emerge since training camp has not started. Here are my pre-training camp rankings within each position (best to worst) for the rest of the current roster:
Lots of things can change throughout the preseason but my current advice would be to keep Jeff Janis, Andy Mulumba, and Lane Taylor. Check back as the preseason plays out for my continued thoughts on Building The 53.
Although the Packers usually keep a few undrafted rookie free agents (think Andy Mulumba), it is too hard to tell what players are going to emerge since training camp has not started. Here are my pre-training camp rankings within each position (best to worst) for the rest of the current roster:
Quarterback: Chase Rettig
Running Back: Michael Hill, Rajon Neal, and LaDarius Perkins
Fullback: Ina Liaina
Wide Receiver: Jeff Janis, Kevin Dorsey, Myles White, Alex Gillett, Chris Harper, and Gerrard Sheppard
Tight End: Jake Stoneburner, Colt Lyerla, and Justin Perillo
Offensive Tackle: Aaron Adams, John Fullington, and Jeremy Vujnovich
Offensive Guard: Lane Taylor, Andrew Tiller, and Jordan McCray
Center: Garth Gerhart
Defensive End: Jerel Worthy, Luther Robinson and Carlos Gray
Defensive Tackle: Mike Pennel
Middle Linebacker: Sam Barrington, Jake Doughty, and Joe Thomas
Outside Linebacker: Andy Mulumba, Nate Palmer, Jayrone Elliott, Adrian Hubbard, and Korey Jones
Cornerback: Demetri Goodson, Jumal Rolle, Ryan White, and Antonio Dennard
Safety: Chris Banjo, Charles Clay, and Tanner Miller
Running Back: Michael Hill, Rajon Neal, and LaDarius Perkins
Fullback: Ina Liaina
Wide Receiver: Jeff Janis, Kevin Dorsey, Myles White, Alex Gillett, Chris Harper, and Gerrard Sheppard
Tight End: Jake Stoneburner, Colt Lyerla, and Justin Perillo
Offensive Tackle: Aaron Adams, John Fullington, and Jeremy Vujnovich
Offensive Guard: Lane Taylor, Andrew Tiller, and Jordan McCray
Center: Garth Gerhart
Defensive End: Jerel Worthy, Luther Robinson and Carlos Gray
Defensive Tackle: Mike Pennel
Middle Linebacker: Sam Barrington, Jake Doughty, and Joe Thomas
Outside Linebacker: Andy Mulumba, Nate Palmer, Jayrone Elliott, Adrian Hubbard, and Korey Jones
Cornerback: Demetri Goodson, Jumal Rolle, Ryan White, and Antonio Dennard
Safety: Chris Banjo, Charles Clay, and Tanner Miller
Lots of things can change throughout the preseason but my current advice would be to keep Jeff Janis, Andy Mulumba, and Lane Taylor. Check back as the preseason plays out for my continued thoughts on Building The 53.
Thursday, July 24, 2014
Building The 53 - The Most Likelies*
Yesterday I gave you my 35 locks* to make The 53. I think there are 15 guys that will most likely* make The 53, which is down from 18 last year, but that is because there are eight more locks* for The 53 this year over last season.
Just to reiterate, you may have noticed the asterisk in the title and throughout this post. I put that there because if any of the following guys suffer a season ending injury during training camp (knocking on wood as I type), the Packers will place them on injured reserve so they would not make The 53 but still would be in the team's long-term plans. Absent a season ending injury, here are the 15 most likelies* to make The 53:
Quarterback: Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien
That means absent injury, there are really only three roster spots up for grabs. Check back tomorrow for my initial thoughts on the disposition of those final three roster spots.
Just to reiterate, you may have noticed the asterisk in the title and throughout this post. I put that there because if any of the following guys suffer a season ending injury during training camp (knocking on wood as I type), the Packers will place them on injured reserve so they would not make The 53 but still would be in the team's long-term plans. Absent a season ending injury, here are the 15 most likelies* to make The 53:
Quarterback: Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien
Running Back: DuJuan Harris
Fullback: John Kuhn
Wide Receiver: Jared Abbrederis
Tight End: Ryan Taylor
Offensive Tackle: Derek Sherrod
Offensive Guard: None
Wide Receiver: Jared Abbrederis
Tight End: Ryan Taylor
Offensive Tackle: Derek Sherrod
Offensive Guard: None
Center: Corey Linsley
Defensive End: None
Defensive Tackle: Letroy Guion
Middle Linebacker: Jamari Lattimore
Outside Linebacker: Nick Perry and Carl Bradford
Cornerback: Davon House and Jarrett Bush
Safety: Sean Richardson
Specialist: NoneDefensive Tackle: Letroy Guion
Middle Linebacker: Jamari Lattimore
Outside Linebacker: Nick Perry and Carl Bradford
Cornerback: Davon House and Jarrett Bush
Safety: Sean Richardson
That means absent injury, there are really only three roster spots up for grabs. Check back tomorrow for my initial thoughts on the disposition of those final three roster spots.
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Building The 53 - The Locks*
As training camp opens this weekend for the 2014 Green Bay Packers, much like I did last year, I am going to run a three-part series of looking at how I think The 53 will shake out before the start of training camp. This marks my second in-depth look at The 53 following my first look in mid-May, which came a little more than a week after the 2014 NFL Draft.
The first installment are the locks* currently on the roster. The reason all of the guys I am about to list are are locks* stems from one of three reasons. One, they recently signed a huge contract extension (i.e. wide receiver Jordy Nelson). Two, they were recently drafted in an early round of the NFL Draft (i.e. safety Ha Ha Clinton Dix). Three, they are solid starters (i.e. middle linebacker A.J. Hawk) at an important position.
You may have noticed the asterisk following locks. I put that there because if any of the following guys suffer a season ending injury during training camp (knocking on wood as I type), the Packers will place them on injured reserve so they would not make The 53 but still would be in the team's long-term plans. Absent a season ending injury, here are the 35 locks*, up from just 27 last season, to make The 53:
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers
Tight End: Andrew Quarless, Brandon Bostick, and Richard Rodgers
That leaves 18 roster spots up for grabs. Check back tomorrow for my list of guys "most likely" to make The 53.
The first installment are the locks* currently on the roster. The reason all of the guys I am about to list are are locks* stems from one of three reasons. One, they recently signed a huge contract extension (i.e. wide receiver Jordy Nelson). Two, they were recently drafted in an early round of the NFL Draft (i.e. safety Ha Ha Clinton Dix). Three, they are solid starters (i.e. middle linebacker A.J. Hawk) at an important position.
You may have noticed the asterisk following locks. I put that there because if any of the following guys suffer a season ending injury during training camp (knocking on wood as I type), the Packers will place them on injured reserve so they would not make The 53 but still would be in the team's long-term plans. Absent a season ending injury, here are the 35 locks*, up from just 27 last season, to make The 53:
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers
Running Back: Eddie Lacy and James Starks
Fullback: None
Wide Receiver: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jarrett Boykin, and Davante AdamsTight End: Andrew Quarless, Brandon Bostick, and Richard Rodgers
Offensive Tackle: Bryan Bulaga, David Bakhtiari, and Don Barclay
Offensive Guard: Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang
Center: JC Tretter
Offensive Guard: Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang
Center: JC Tretter
Defensive End: Datone Jones, Josh Boyd, and Khyri Thornton
Defensive Tackle: B.J. Raji and Mike Daniels
Middle Linebacker: A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones
Outside Linebacker: Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, and Mike Neal
Cornerback: Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Casey Hayward
Middle Linebacker: A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones
Outside Linebacker: Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, and Mike Neal
Cornerback: Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Casey Hayward
Safety: Morgan Burnett, Micah Hyde, and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
Specialists: Mason Crosby (K), Tim Masthay (P), and Brett Goode (LS)
That leaves 18 roster spots up for grabs. Check back tomorrow for my list of guys "most likely" to make The 53.
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Building The 53 - My Locks for The 53
Welcome to the last of my seven-part series of advice for how Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson
Offense: 17 players
QB: Aaron Rodgers and Scott Tolzien
RB: Eddie Lacy, DuJuan Harris, and Johnathan Franklin
FB: None
WR: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Jarrett Boykin
TE: Ryan Taylor and Brandon Bostick
T: Bryan Bulaga, David Bakhtiari, Don Barclay, and Derek Sherrod
G:Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang
C: JC Tretter
Analysis: The most controversial of the locks above have to be the tight ends but Taylor's special teams abilities and the 10% chance that Bostick is an athletic tight end in the mold of a healthy Jermichael Finley make them cost-effective assets on The 53 in 2014 since both are still are on their rookie contracts. There is a good chance that center Evan Dietrich-Smith signs a long-term deal with the Packers this off-season, which would give the Packers eight quality offensive lineman without even factoring in guys like Lane Taylor and Greg Van Roten. I see Thompson resigning quarterback Matt Flynn and fullback John Kuhn but letting wide receiver James Jones and tight end Andrew Quarless test free agency. Even if tight end Jermichael Finley isn't on The 53 for the Packers in 2014, assuming the Packers sign EDS and Kuhn, the Packers have an impressive offense for 2014 without even taking into account free agents or the 2014 NFL Draft.
Defense: 14 players
DT: Mike Daniels and Josh Boyd
DE: Datone Jones and Jerel Worthy
OLB: Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, and Andy Mulumba
MLB: A.J. Hawk
CB: Casey Hayward, Davon House, and Jarrett Bush
S: Morgan Burnett, Micah Hyde, and Sean Richardson
Analysis: The Packers have a ton of difficult decision to make along the defensive line given that Johnny Jolly, Ryan Pickett, B.J. Raji, and C.J. Wilson are all set to become unrestricted free agents. Even if all four leave via free agency, the Packers still have four nice young defensive lineman on The 53. There is a good chance that middle linebacker Brad Jones and cornerback Tramon Williams are on The 53 to start 2014 but given that I advised Thompson to cut Jones and get Williams to re-work his deal, I can't make either of them locks. Finally, you will notice that I moved Hyde to safety. If the Packers are able to resign cornerback Sam Shields, moving Hyde to safety is a no brainer. The only thing that gives me pause is if the Packers actually draft Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
Specialist: 2 players
LS: Brett Goode
P: Tim Masthay
Analysis: Much like Jones and Williams, unfortunately I see Mason Crosby kicking for the Packers in 2014 but that doesn't mean that I agree with that decision.
With that, my seven-part series of advice for how Thompson should approach The 53 for 2014 is officially in the books. It may sound crazy but I see this series as my resume if any Packer front-office positions open this off-season. I expect things to be quiet on the personnel front for the Packers for the next month but if Thompson starts making moves to The 53, check back for full coverage.
Offense: 17 players
QB: Aaron Rodgers and Scott Tolzien
RB: Eddie Lacy, DuJuan Harris, and Johnathan Franklin
FB: None
WR: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Jarrett Boykin
TE: Ryan Taylor and Brandon Bostick
T: Bryan Bulaga, David Bakhtiari, Don Barclay, and Derek Sherrod
G:Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang
C: JC Tretter
Analysis: The most controversial of the locks above have to be the tight ends but Taylor's special teams abilities and the 10% chance that Bostick is an athletic tight end in the mold of a healthy Jermichael Finley make them cost-effective assets on The 53 in 2014 since both are still are on their rookie contracts. There is a good chance that center Evan Dietrich-Smith signs a long-term deal with the Packers this off-season, which would give the Packers eight quality offensive lineman without even factoring in guys like Lane Taylor and Greg Van Roten. I see Thompson resigning quarterback Matt Flynn and fullback John Kuhn but letting wide receiver James Jones and tight end Andrew Quarless test free agency. Even if tight end Jermichael Finley isn't on The 53 for the Packers in 2014, assuming the Packers sign EDS and Kuhn, the Packers have an impressive offense for 2014 without even taking into account free agents or the 2014 NFL Draft.
Defense: 14 players
DT: Mike Daniels and Josh Boyd
DE: Datone Jones and Jerel Worthy
OLB: Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, and Andy Mulumba
MLB: A.J. Hawk
CB: Casey Hayward, Davon House, and Jarrett Bush
S: Morgan Burnett, Micah Hyde, and Sean Richardson
Analysis: The Packers have a ton of difficult decision to make along the defensive line given that Johnny Jolly, Ryan Pickett, B.J. Raji, and C.J. Wilson are all set to become unrestricted free agents. Even if all four leave via free agency, the Packers still have four nice young defensive lineman on The 53. There is a good chance that middle linebacker Brad Jones and cornerback Tramon Williams are on The 53 to start 2014 but given that I advised Thompson to cut Jones and get Williams to re-work his deal, I can't make either of them locks. Finally, you will notice that I moved Hyde to safety. If the Packers are able to resign cornerback Sam Shields, moving Hyde to safety is a no brainer. The only thing that gives me pause is if the Packers actually draft Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
Specialist: 2 players
LS: Brett Goode
P: Tim Masthay
Analysis: Much like Jones and Williams, unfortunately I see Mason Crosby kicking for the Packers in 2014 but that doesn't mean that I agree with that decision.
With that, my seven-part series of advice for how Thompson should approach The 53 for 2014 is officially in the books. It may sound crazy but I see this series as my resume if any Packer front-office positions open this off-season. I expect things to be quiet on the personnel front for the Packers for the next month but if Thompson starts making moves to The 53, check back for full coverage.
Monday, January 13, 2014
Building The 53 - Potential Salary Cap Casualties on The 53
As I discussed in my first installment of this seven-part series, Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson projects to have at least $35 million in cap space in 2014. That seems like a ton of money but at least $5 million of that will be spent on rookies drafted in the 2014 NFL Draft. Add in that the Packers have 20 players currently on injured reserve or The 53, (restricted and unrestricted), that are set to become free agents and all of a sudden that is not that much cap space. That means that every dollar under the salary cap must be used very wisely by Packers general manager Ted Thompson. Even if Thompson uses every salary cap dollar wisely, he might still need to create some cap space by cutting or restructuring contracts of players currently on The 53.
I broke down the five worst contracts on The 53. A number of guys off that list are strong candidates of becoming salary cap casualties before the start of the 2014 NFL season. Thompson strongly favors "pay-as-you go" contracts, which would allow him to walk away from some bad decisions he made in the last few years. The most glaring of those bad decisions involves A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones, the two current starting middle linebackers. Unless both guys are willing to take significant pay cuts, Thompson needs to replace both guys before the start of the 2015 NFL season.
I know Jones just finished the first year of the three-year, $11.25 million deal with $3 million guaranteed but I would start by cutting Jones after June 1st. Jones made $2.5 million in 2013 but his cap number jumps to $4 million next season and $4.75 million in 2015. Jones has $2 million guaranteed left on his current deal so if Thompson cuts Jones after June 1st, the Packers would have $2 million in dead salary cap space that they could spread over 2014 and 2015. It would be a rarity for Thompson to cut a guy less than a year after signing him to a three-year extension but given that Jones looks like just another guy on the field, I think it makes sense in this case.
With the plan for how to handle Jones, the next step is to sort out how to phase out Hawk. Let me be the 10,000th person to say that if Hawk was even a late first round pick that he would be celebrated as one of the best linebackers in franchise history. Since Hawk was the 5th pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, expectations overshadowed his accomplishments in his eight seasons in Green Bay.
Although Hawk put up some nice single-season stats in 2013: 118 tackles (2nd highest of his career), 5 sacks (highest of his career), 1 forced fumble (second highest of his career), and 1 interception (tied for highest of his career); it is the general lack of overall big plays that have undermined Hawk's career. Over eight NFL seasons Hawk only has 18.5 sacks, 3 fumble forced fumbles, 5 fumble recoveries, 9 interceptions, and zero defensive touchdowns.
Following the 2010 season Hawk used his leverage after becoming a free agent to get overpaid when Thompson signed Hawk to a ludicrous five-year, $33.75 million contract with $8 million guaranteed. There is no question that Hawk is durable but that is way too much money to pay a ho-hum middle linebacker. Luckily Thompson was able to renegotiated Hawk's deal last off-season, which involved Hawk taking a $7.5 million pay cut so he carries a salary cap charge of $5.1 million with $1.6 million guaranteed each of the next two seasons. If the Packers cut Hawk this off-season it would result in $3.2 million in dead money and only $1.6 million in dead money if the Packers cut Hawk before the 2015 season. Unless Jones and Hawk are willing to take pay cuts I would cut each of them after the June 1st over the next two years, Jones this year and Hawk next year.
Moving from middle linebacker to place kicker. Mason Crosby is coming off his most productive season in the NFL, which means he is a strong candidate for regression next year since many studies have shown that kicking accuracy, good or bad, does not tend to continue year-to-year. Crosby is signed through 2015 but restructured just the 2013 portion of his contract before the season to make it incentive-based. Crosby ultimately earned every dollar he was owed before the restructure. Crosby holds salary cap charges of $3.4 million in 2014 (8th highest in the NFL) and $3.55 million in 2015 (6th highest in the NFL). If the Packers cut Crosby this off-season it would result in $1.2 million in dead money and only $600,000 if the Packers cut Crosby before the 2015 season. I say draft a kicker late in the 2014 NFL Draft and cut Crosby after June 1st, which will give Thompson over $1 million more in cap space that he desperately needs.
Cornerback Tramon Williams is due $9.5 million with $2 million guaranteed in 2014. That is the final year of the four-year, $33 million with $10.9 million guaranteed that Williams signed in November of 2010 when he was in a contract year. Unless the Packers can get Williams to accept a pay cut, he will have the 8th highest average salary of all cornerbacks in the NFL, which is way too rich for Williams. I would be shocked if the Packers kept Williams past 2014 given all of their young depth at cornerback but keeping Williams in 2014 might preclude Thompson from offering cornerback Sam Shields the big money deal he earned this off-season. I would much rather have five years of Shields than one more year of Williams so unless Williams accepts a pay cut, I would treat Williams just like the Packers treated Charles Woodson last off-season.
Given all of the cuts I advised Thompson to make above, make sure to check back tomorrow for my initial thoughts on what Thompson should do in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
I broke down the five worst contracts on The 53. A number of guys off that list are strong candidates of becoming salary cap casualties before the start of the 2014 NFL season. Thompson strongly favors "pay-as-you go" contracts, which would allow him to walk away from some bad decisions he made in the last few years. The most glaring of those bad decisions involves A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones, the two current starting middle linebackers. Unless both guys are willing to take significant pay cuts, Thompson needs to replace both guys before the start of the 2015 NFL season.
I know Jones just finished the first year of the three-year, $11.25 million deal with $3 million guaranteed but I would start by cutting Jones after June 1st. Jones made $2.5 million in 2013 but his cap number jumps to $4 million next season and $4.75 million in 2015. Jones has $2 million guaranteed left on his current deal so if Thompson cuts Jones after June 1st, the Packers would have $2 million in dead salary cap space that they could spread over 2014 and 2015. It would be a rarity for Thompson to cut a guy less than a year after signing him to a three-year extension but given that Jones looks like just another guy on the field, I think it makes sense in this case.
With the plan for how to handle Jones, the next step is to sort out how to phase out Hawk. Let me be the 10,000th person to say that if Hawk was even a late first round pick that he would be celebrated as one of the best linebackers in franchise history. Since Hawk was the 5th pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, expectations overshadowed his accomplishments in his eight seasons in Green Bay.
Although Hawk put up some nice single-season stats in 2013: 118 tackles (2nd highest of his career), 5 sacks (highest of his career), 1 forced fumble (second highest of his career), and 1 interception (tied for highest of his career); it is the general lack of overall big plays that have undermined Hawk's career. Over eight NFL seasons Hawk only has 18.5 sacks, 3 fumble forced fumbles, 5 fumble recoveries, 9 interceptions, and zero defensive touchdowns.
Following the 2010 season Hawk used his leverage after becoming a free agent to get overpaid when Thompson signed Hawk to a ludicrous five-year, $33.75 million contract with $8 million guaranteed. There is no question that Hawk is durable but that is way too much money to pay a ho-hum middle linebacker. Luckily Thompson was able to renegotiated Hawk's deal last off-season, which involved Hawk taking a $7.5 million pay cut so he carries a salary cap charge of $5.1 million with $1.6 million guaranteed each of the next two seasons. If the Packers cut Hawk this off-season it would result in $3.2 million in dead money and only $1.6 million in dead money if the Packers cut Hawk before the 2015 season. Unless Jones and Hawk are willing to take pay cuts I would cut each of them after the June 1st over the next two years, Jones this year and Hawk next year.
Moving from middle linebacker to place kicker. Mason Crosby is coming off his most productive season in the NFL, which means he is a strong candidate for regression next year since many studies have shown that kicking accuracy, good or bad, does not tend to continue year-to-year. Crosby is signed through 2015 but restructured just the 2013 portion of his contract before the season to make it incentive-based. Crosby ultimately earned every dollar he was owed before the restructure. Crosby holds salary cap charges of $3.4 million in 2014 (8th highest in the NFL) and $3.55 million in 2015 (6th highest in the NFL). If the Packers cut Crosby this off-season it would result in $1.2 million in dead money and only $600,000 if the Packers cut Crosby before the 2015 season. I say draft a kicker late in the 2014 NFL Draft and cut Crosby after June 1st, which will give Thompson over $1 million more in cap space that he desperately needs.
Cornerback Tramon Williams is due $9.5 million with $2 million guaranteed in 2014. That is the final year of the four-year, $33 million with $10.9 million guaranteed that Williams signed in November of 2010 when he was in a contract year. Unless the Packers can get Williams to accept a pay cut, he will have the 8th highest average salary of all cornerbacks in the NFL, which is way too rich for Williams. I would be shocked if the Packers kept Williams past 2014 given all of their young depth at cornerback but keeping Williams in 2014 might preclude Thompson from offering cornerback Sam Shields the big money deal he earned this off-season. I would much rather have five years of Shields than one more year of Williams so unless Williams accepts a pay cut, I would treat Williams just like the Packers treated Charles Woodson last off-season.
Given all of the cuts I advised Thompson to make above, make sure to check back tomorrow for my initial thoughts on what Thompson should do in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
Friday, January 10, 2014
Building The 53 - How to Handle 2014 UFA's on The 53
There are 13 players currently on The 53 for the Green Bay Packers that are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents in early March, eight play offense and five play defense. The eight offensive players are: Kahlil Bell (RB), Evan Dietrich-Smith (C), Matt Flynn (QB), James Jones (WR), John Kuhn (FB), Marshall Newhouse (OT), Andrew Quarless (TE), and James Starks (RB). The five defensive players are: Ryan Pickett (DT), Mike Neal (OLB), B.J. Raji (DT), C.J. Wilson (DE), and Sam Shields (CB). After reading all the names on the list, you can see that there are a number of very difficult decisions for Packers general manager Ted Thompson. Back in November after the Packers lost on the road to the New York Giants, I gave very specific thoughts on how Thompson should handle the free agents. My thoughts changed slightly since November. As a general matter I see four ways to deal with the aforementioned free agents: let them become free agents, sign them to one-year veteran minimum deals, sign them to reasonable long-term deals, or sign them to expensive long-term deals.
added Bell to The 53 in early December to give them some depth at running back but they have a ton of better, younger options at running back in 2014. Newhouse started every game at left tackle for the Packers in 2012 with sub par results so they moved Bryan Bulaga from right tackle to left tackle and essentially handed the starting right tackle job to Don Barclay going into 2013. When the Packers lost Bulaga for the season in the preseason, they inserted rookie David Bakhtiari instead of Newhouse so the only way Newhouse saw the field in 2013 was when the Packers suffered an injury along the offensive line. For how bad Newhouse played in 2012, I actually think he played worse in limited action in 2013. Given that the Packers have the aforementioned trio of Bakhtiari, Barclay, and Bulaga under contract along with 2011 first round draft pick Derek Sherrod, I would not even tender Newhouse a contract for 2014 because of how much Newhouse regressed the last two years.
I would tell Flynn, Quarless, Starks, and Wilson that they have a one-year, veteran minimum offer ready for them to sign. Quarless and Wilson will garnering the least interest on the free agent market, which should allow the Packers to resign them both for the veteran minimum. I would get both deals done right away to hedge in-case the Packers lose all their other free agent lineman (Jolly, Raji, and Pickett) and Finley is unable to return from the serious spinal cord injury he suffered in Week 5 against the Browns.
Flynn had the game of his life against the Detroit Lions to close out the 2011 regular season. Since then, Flynn had an interesting year and a half where he earned millions of dollars thanks to his performance for the Packers against the Lions as a backup for three NFL teams (Seattle Seahawks, Oakland Raiders, and Buffalo Bills) that each showed him the door. When I gave my thoughts on Flynn following the loss to the Giants, he had not played a meaningful snap for the Packers. Fast forward a few months and it looks like the only place Flynn can be a serviceable quarterback is for the Packers. Even though Flynn engineered a 23-point second half comeback on the road against the Dallas Cowboys, I see other NFL teams being leery that Flynn has only been successful as a member of the Packers. Bringing Flynn back on a one-year deal allows the Packers to have a nice trio at quarterback of Flynn, Rodgers, and Scott Tolzien with Flynn and Tolzien fighting for the backup spot behind Rodgers.
I really struggled with whether Thompson should offer Starks a multi-year deal. Talent has never been the issue for Starks, which was evident in the playoff run that lead the Packers to winning Super Bowl XLV. What works against giving Starks a long-term deal are his injury issues and the quality depth the Packers have at running back since they have starter Eddie Lacy to go along with Johnathan Franklin and DuJuan Harris. I would be shocked if another team didn't offer Starks a multi-year deal in free agency so I would be surprised to see him playing for the Packers in 2014.
There is no question that Kuhn had the two biggest blocks of the year for the Packers: lead block for rookie running back Eddie Lacy to start the improbable second half comeback against the Dallas Cowboys and the chip on Chicago Bears defensive end Julius Peppers to give quarterback Aaron Rodgers just enough time to find wide receiver Randall Cobb for the go-ahead score to beat the Bears and win the NFC North. Two blocks should not be the determining factor in giving Kuhn an extension but when you add in that he is a special teams maven, I totally support the Packers offering Kuhn a two-year, $3 million extension with $1 million guaranteed.
After an up-and-down start to his career with the Packers thanks to a mix of injuries and a PED suspension, it took a position change from defensive line to outside linebacker for Mike Neal to show his worth. When the Packers drafted Neal in the second round of the 2010 NFL Draft, I thought that the Packers should have taken Ben Tate (RB), Terrance Cody (DT), or Charles Brown (OT) instead. There is no question that Neal has been the least productive of the four but going forward it looks like Neal might be the best of the four over the next five years. Despite having a healthy Nick Perry penciled in as the starter opposite Claymaker at outside linebacker in 2014, I would still resign Neal to a three-year, $6 million deal with $2 million guaranteed.
Thompson would love to resign Jones to give him a quintet at wide receiver of Jarrett Boykin, Cobb, Jones, and Jordy Nelson. Unfortunately there is a salary cap and the Packers need to extend Cobb and Nelson before the end of 2014 so it looks like Jones will leave via free agency unless he accepts a below market deal like the one he just finishing. I would not go much higher than three years, $10 million with $3 million guaranteed but my guess is that Jones is looking for more years and money since this is his last real chance to break the bank in free agency. Even before the revelations that Jones played the last few games of the season, there was no question that he is a team player. The question is whether Jones is willing to sacrifice financially to stay in Green Bay.
There were reports in the middle of this season that Raji's agent turned down a long-term deal offered by Thompson that was worth $8 million a year. I get that Raji wants to test free agency but there is no way any NFL team, including the Packers, should pay Raji more than $6 million a year given his skill set. At 34-years old, there is no question that Pickett is getting up there in age but he is a perfect space eater in the 3-4 that plays through injury so Thompson needs to think long and hard about whether it is worth resigning Pickett on the cheap instead of investing big bucks in Raji.
Even if the Packers replace defensive coordinator Dom Capers before next season, I would be shocked if they shifted from a 3-4 to a 4-3 so it makes no sense to invest big dollars in the defensive line since they are all essentially large space eaters as opposed to playmakers. Sure there are outliers like Baltimore Ravens defensive tackle Haloti Ngata that are playmakers but Raji is no Ngata. Ultimately I think it makes much more sense to resign a guy like Johnny Jolly or Pickett to a cheaper deal instead of breaking the bank for Raji given that the Packers have some quality young depth along the defensive line in Josh Boyd, Mike Daniels, Datone Jones, and Jerel Worthy.
With all of that as background, let's get down to numbers for Pickett and Raji. I would offer Pickett a two-year, $5 million deal with $2 million guaranteed. I would offer Raji a four-year, $20 million deal with $5 million guaranteed. If Raji turns down that contract I would not place the franchise tag on him, instead I would let him test free agency.
After the Jeff Saturday experiment crashed and burned in 2012, luckily the Packers have EDS waiting in the wings as a long-term answer at center. The Packers have a ton of money invested in their starting guards with Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang signed through 2017. Since the Packers have all their tackles on rookie contracts they are able to save some money at those spots, which allows them to lock down EDS long-term. I know this is going to seem like a low-ball offer but I would offer EDS a three-year, $12 million deal with $6 million guaranteed. If EDS turns that down, the highest that I would go is four-years, $16 million with $8 million guaranteed.
That leaves Shields. We learned in 2013 that the Packers need a legitimate safety opposite Morgan Burnett. We know that Chris Banjo and M.D. Jennings are fine backups but not the guy to fill that spot. There is an outside chance that Sean Richardson is a legitimate NFL safety but he has been unable to stay healthy long enough to prove that on the field. Why am I discussing safties given that Shields plays cornerback? I've mentioned this at least five times in this space that I think the Packers should move Micah Hyde from cornerback to safety. With all due respect to Jarrett Bush, that leaves the Packers with Tramon Williams, Casey Hayward, and Davon House as their only legitimate NFL cornerbacks on The 53 in 2014 unless the Packers resign Shields. Given the proliferation of the passing game in the NFL, a team can never have too many cornerbacks. That is why I would offer Shields a five-year, $35 million deal with $10 million guaranteed. Make sure the first year carries a low cap number because Williams is set to earn $9.5 million in 2014. Once Williams comes off the books in 2015, even if Shields' cap number jumps, the Packers can justify that expenditure.
Thanks for sticking around for the fourth installment of my seven-part series of off-season advice for Thompson. I know this one was by far the longest one but given how many players currently on The 53 that are set to become unrestricted free agents in March, clearly Thompson has some tough decisions ahead. I am sure that I will revisit this post after the Super Bowl as the free agent market starts to form to if Thompson follows any of my advice. Make sure to check back Monday when I discuss potential salary cap casualties currently on The 53 and signed through at least 2014.
added Bell to The 53 in early December to give them some depth at running back but they have a ton of better, younger options at running back in 2014. Newhouse started every game at left tackle for the Packers in 2012 with sub par results so they moved Bryan Bulaga from right tackle to left tackle and essentially handed the starting right tackle job to Don Barclay going into 2013. When the Packers lost Bulaga for the season in the preseason, they inserted rookie David Bakhtiari instead of Newhouse so the only way Newhouse saw the field in 2013 was when the Packers suffered an injury along the offensive line. For how bad Newhouse played in 2012, I actually think he played worse in limited action in 2013. Given that the Packers have the aforementioned trio of Bakhtiari, Barclay, and Bulaga under contract along with 2011 first round draft pick Derek Sherrod, I would not even tender Newhouse a contract for 2014 because of how much Newhouse regressed the last two years.
I would tell Flynn, Quarless, Starks, and Wilson that they have a one-year, veteran minimum offer ready for them to sign. Quarless and Wilson will garnering the least interest on the free agent market, which should allow the Packers to resign them both for the veteran minimum. I would get both deals done right away to hedge in-case the Packers lose all their other free agent lineman (Jolly, Raji, and Pickett) and Finley is unable to return from the serious spinal cord injury he suffered in Week 5 against the Browns.
Flynn had the game of his life against the Detroit Lions to close out the 2011 regular season. Since then, Flynn had an interesting year and a half where he earned millions of dollars thanks to his performance for the Packers against the Lions as a backup for three NFL teams (Seattle Seahawks, Oakland Raiders, and Buffalo Bills) that each showed him the door. When I gave my thoughts on Flynn following the loss to the Giants, he had not played a meaningful snap for the Packers. Fast forward a few months and it looks like the only place Flynn can be a serviceable quarterback is for the Packers. Even though Flynn engineered a 23-point second half comeback on the road against the Dallas Cowboys, I see other NFL teams being leery that Flynn has only been successful as a member of the Packers. Bringing Flynn back on a one-year deal allows the Packers to have a nice trio at quarterback of Flynn, Rodgers, and Scott Tolzien with Flynn and Tolzien fighting for the backup spot behind Rodgers.
I really struggled with whether Thompson should offer Starks a multi-year deal. Talent has never been the issue for Starks, which was evident in the playoff run that lead the Packers to winning Super Bowl XLV. What works against giving Starks a long-term deal are his injury issues and the quality depth the Packers have at running back since they have starter Eddie Lacy to go along with Johnathan Franklin and DuJuan Harris. I would be shocked if another team didn't offer Starks a multi-year deal in free agency so I would be surprised to see him playing for the Packers in 2014.
There is no question that Kuhn had the two biggest blocks of the year for the Packers: lead block for rookie running back Eddie Lacy to start the improbable second half comeback against the Dallas Cowboys and the chip on Chicago Bears defensive end Julius Peppers to give quarterback Aaron Rodgers just enough time to find wide receiver Randall Cobb for the go-ahead score to beat the Bears and win the NFC North. Two blocks should not be the determining factor in giving Kuhn an extension but when you add in that he is a special teams maven, I totally support the Packers offering Kuhn a two-year, $3 million extension with $1 million guaranteed.
After an up-and-down start to his career with the Packers thanks to a mix of injuries and a PED suspension, it took a position change from defensive line to outside linebacker for Mike Neal to show his worth. When the Packers drafted Neal in the second round of the 2010 NFL Draft, I thought that the Packers should have taken Ben Tate (RB), Terrance Cody (DT), or Charles Brown (OT) instead. There is no question that Neal has been the least productive of the four but going forward it looks like Neal might be the best of the four over the next five years. Despite having a healthy Nick Perry penciled in as the starter opposite Claymaker at outside linebacker in 2014, I would still resign Neal to a three-year, $6 million deal with $2 million guaranteed.
Thompson would love to resign Jones to give him a quintet at wide receiver of Jarrett Boykin, Cobb, Jones, and Jordy Nelson. Unfortunately there is a salary cap and the Packers need to extend Cobb and Nelson before the end of 2014 so it looks like Jones will leave via free agency unless he accepts a below market deal like the one he just finishing. I would not go much higher than three years, $10 million with $3 million guaranteed but my guess is that Jones is looking for more years and money since this is his last real chance to break the bank in free agency. Even before the revelations that Jones played the last few games of the season, there was no question that he is a team player. The question is whether Jones is willing to sacrifice financially to stay in Green Bay.
There were reports in the middle of this season that Raji's agent turned down a long-term deal offered by Thompson that was worth $8 million a year. I get that Raji wants to test free agency but there is no way any NFL team, including the Packers, should pay Raji more than $6 million a year given his skill set. At 34-years old, there is no question that Pickett is getting up there in age but he is a perfect space eater in the 3-4 that plays through injury so Thompson needs to think long and hard about whether it is worth resigning Pickett on the cheap instead of investing big bucks in Raji.
Even if the Packers replace defensive coordinator Dom Capers before next season, I would be shocked if they shifted from a 3-4 to a 4-3 so it makes no sense to invest big dollars in the defensive line since they are all essentially large space eaters as opposed to playmakers. Sure there are outliers like Baltimore Ravens defensive tackle Haloti Ngata that are playmakers but Raji is no Ngata. Ultimately I think it makes much more sense to resign a guy like Johnny Jolly or Pickett to a cheaper deal instead of breaking the bank for Raji given that the Packers have some quality young depth along the defensive line in Josh Boyd, Mike Daniels, Datone Jones, and Jerel Worthy.
With all of that as background, let's get down to numbers for Pickett and Raji. I would offer Pickett a two-year, $5 million deal with $2 million guaranteed. I would offer Raji a four-year, $20 million deal with $5 million guaranteed. If Raji turns down that contract I would not place the franchise tag on him, instead I would let him test free agency.
After the Jeff Saturday experiment crashed and burned in 2012, luckily the Packers have EDS waiting in the wings as a long-term answer at center. The Packers have a ton of money invested in their starting guards with Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang signed through 2017. Since the Packers have all their tackles on rookie contracts they are able to save some money at those spots, which allows them to lock down EDS long-term. I know this is going to seem like a low-ball offer but I would offer EDS a three-year, $12 million deal with $6 million guaranteed. If EDS turns that down, the highest that I would go is four-years, $16 million with $8 million guaranteed.
That leaves Shields. We learned in 2013 that the Packers need a legitimate safety opposite Morgan Burnett. We know that Chris Banjo and M.D. Jennings are fine backups but not the guy to fill that spot. There is an outside chance that Sean Richardson is a legitimate NFL safety but he has been unable to stay healthy long enough to prove that on the field. Why am I discussing safties given that Shields plays cornerback? I've mentioned this at least five times in this space that I think the Packers should move Micah Hyde from cornerback to safety. With all due respect to Jarrett Bush, that leaves the Packers with Tramon Williams, Casey Hayward, and Davon House as their only legitimate NFL cornerbacks on The 53 in 2014 unless the Packers resign Shields. Given the proliferation of the passing game in the NFL, a team can never have too many cornerbacks. That is why I would offer Shields a five-year, $35 million deal with $10 million guaranteed. Make sure the first year carries a low cap number because Williams is set to earn $9.5 million in 2014. Once Williams comes off the books in 2015, even if Shields' cap number jumps, the Packers can justify that expenditure.
Thanks for sticking around for the fourth installment of my seven-part series of off-season advice for Thompson. I know this one was by far the longest one but given how many players currently on The 53 that are set to become unrestricted free agents in March, clearly Thompson has some tough decisions ahead. I am sure that I will revisit this post after the Super Bowl as the free agent market starts to form to if Thompson follows any of my advice. Make sure to check back Monday when I discuss potential salary cap casualties currently on The 53 and signed through at least 2014.
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