Building The 53 - Changes Galore at Center

Unfortunately work got in the way of the rest of my five-part preview of the 2014 Green Bay Packers season getting posted before the Packers open the season on the road against the Seattle Seahawks this evening.  For those that are clamoring for the rest of the series (see table below), I promise to have it all posted before the regular season home opener next weekend when the Packers host the New York Jets, which I will be attending with Gaber, Sug, and UP.

Review of The 53

Initial Review of the Roster Initial Review of the Practice Squad Five Most Overpaid Five Most Underpaid Initial Rankings of the Roster

In the meantime, I had to write a quick post because Packers general manager Ted Thompson made an interesting move to The 53 yesterday. Thompson placed center JC Tretter on injured reserve - designated for return, which opened up a spot on The 53.  Thompson filled that spot on The 53 with center Garth Gerhart off the practice squad.  That move opened up a spot on the practice squad that Thompson filled with guard Josh Allen.

Since Tretter was placed on injured reserve - designated for return, he cannot practice with the team for six weeks and cannot be placed on The 53 for eight weeks.  Given that the Packers have a bye Week 9, the earliest Tretter can return is Week 10 when the Packers host the Chicago Bears.  Also NFL teams are only allowed to use the injured reserve - designated for return once per season so that ship has already sailed for 2014 before the regular season even started.

In my off-season advice for Thompson I said that he should offer center Even Dietrich-Smith a four-year, $16 million contract with $8 million guaranteed.  As the off-season progressed, I went on record again saying that Thompson was going to regret the decision not to resign EDS.  As it turns out EDS signed a four-year, $14.25 million deal with $7.25 million guaranteed with the Tampa Bay Bucaneers not the Packers.  Clearly I value EDS more than the Bucs, which value EDS more than the Packers.

That means instead of EDS or even Tretter, the Packers are now forced to start rookie center Corey Linsley for at least half the season, which I am sure is not what Thompson had in mind when he drafted Linsley in the 5th round of the 2014 NFL Draft.  Sure you can never predict that injuries would claim backup offensive lineman Don Barclay's entire season and at least half of Tretter's season but let's not forget that Barclay was dinged up last season and that Tretter missed almost his entire rookie season due to injury so seeing them both injured again this year is by no means shocking.  If Linsley struggles this season, instead of playing Gerhart at center, my guess is that right guard T.J. Lang moves to center and the Packers insert Derek Sherrod at right guard.

This post has been a complete downer so far so let's try to find the silver lining in all of this.  The Packers used the injured reserve - designated for return last year on wide receiver Randall Cobb when Cobb was injured by Baltimore Ravens safety Matt Elam.  That worked out pretty well given that Cobb return for the regular season finale on the road against the Chicago Bears.  For those that forgot the outcome of the game, the Packers trailed the Bears 28 to 27 with 46 seconds to play and faced a 4th and 8 from the Bears' 48-yard line. Rodgers and Cobb connected on a 48-yard touchdown pass to seal not only a win but the NFC North crown and most importantly a spot in the playoffs.  Oh and that play also ended the season for the Bears, which is always nice.

Back to Tretter, even if he is able to return Week 10 against the Bears, I have no grand illusions that he is going to be the savior against the Bears this season the way Cobb was last season.  I just hope in EDS and Tretter's absence that the offensive line does not crumble due to their inexperience at center.

One more macro NFL injury thought.  Given the physicality of your average NFL game, the NFL should really consider changing their injury policy.  MLB has a 15-day disabled list, which provides a nice way for MLB teams to deal with in-season injuries.  I am not positive that is the solution for the NFL but there should be an interim injury designation that lets teams open roster spots for healthy players but allows them to do that without having to place players on injured reserve.  For those that do not understand the intricacies of injured reserve in the NFL, when a team places a player on injured reserve that means they lost that player's services for the rest of the season.  Sure there there is injured reserve - designated for return but that can only be used once a season per team.

In terms of my solution, I would allow unlimited two game and four game injured reserve - designated for return.  You can only use the two game or four game designation once a season for each player but can use it on every player on The 53.  The NFL claims to care about concussions so it seems like the two game injured reserve - designated for return would be a great way to encourage teams to hold out players that suffered a concussion.  The pitch for the four-game injured reserve could again be concussions or significant sprains (e.g. high ankle, hamstring, etc.) that necessitate time off but should not claim a player's entire season.  Without those interim designations available, teams are essentially encouraged to rush players at the bottom of The 53 back because they can threaten the specter of placing them on injured reserve.

One final pitch for my two game and four game injured reserve - designated for return.  For the seven games that quarterback Aaron Rodgers missed last season, it was a weekly discussion of will he play or not.  The Packers knew Rodgers wasn't going to play the first few weeks but would not come clean.  Please don't tell me the threat of the other team having to prepare for Rodgers is worth having him on The 53 because most NFL teams are over prepared.  They know the type of gum the 53rd guy on The 53 likes to chew. If the Packers could have placed Rodgers on the four game injured reserve - designated for return they could signed another veteran quarterback for those four weeks and it would have cut down on the rampant speculation on whether Rodgers was going to play.

My expectations for the NFL adopting the injury rules I just outlined are about as high as my expectations for the game tonight, which are very low (see me trying to reserve jinx a Packer win).  No matter the outcome, make sure to check back in this space over the next week as I finish my five-part preview of the 2014 Green Bay Packers with my look at the most overpaid on The 53, the most underpaid on The 53, and my first rankings (1-53) of The 53.

Building The 53 - The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly 1.0

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson rarely makes headlines in free agency but on the brink of free agency Thompson did exactly that when he signed cornerback Sam Shields to a four-year, $39 million contract with $12.5 million guaranteed.  The fact that Thompson made headlines even before the start of free agency might have been a harbinger of things to come because so far Thompson has been very active in free agency by his standards.  Less than a week into free agency, here are my initial thoughts.

The Good

A few days ago I gave Thompson a blueprint for how to re-build the defense via free agency. Although Thompson did not sign the specific players I highlighted, he did follow four of my five pieces of advice: did not sign an expensive safety, signed a cost-effective outside linebacker in Mike Neal, signed a cost-effective defensive lineman in B.J. Raji, and signed an expensive pass rusher in Julius Peppers.  The only piece of advice that Thompson has ignored whole cloth is failing to sign Charles Woodson, which is still a possibly given that he is still free agent.  There is no doubt that Woodson would be a welcomed addition even considering all the moves made by Thompson so far this off-season.

 

Let's start with the Neal deal.  Thompson gave Neal a two-year, $8 million contract with $2.5 million guaranteed.  I thought a three-year, $7.5 million deal with $2.5 million guaranteed seemed fair so the deal Neal signed is slightly more expensive than I would have liked but still a reasonable, cost-effective move nonetheless.  After switching from defensive line to outside linebacker last season, Neal showed the ability to rush the passer but struggled to drop into coverage.  It will be interesting to see if the Packers keep Neal at outside linebacker given the addition of Peppers and the presence of Nick Perry on The 53.

Let's move on to Raji.  In the middle of last season the Packers reportedly offered Raji a long-term deal worth $8 million a year.  In less than six months things have changed dramatically for Raji given that he settled for a one-year, $4 million "prove-it" deal with the Packers.  Although Raji was less than impressive last season, some of that had to do with the lack of big plays the players around Raji produced so he has to be excited about the Peppers signing.

According to initial reports Peppers signed a three-year, $30 million contract with $7.5 million guaranteed that pays him $8.5 million next season.  The Packers rarely sign free agents that played for other NFL teams, let along 34-year old free agents that played for a divisional rival.  The reason that the Packers signed Peppers is that he is a versatile pass rusher that can lineup at outside linebacker or defensive end in a 3-4 or as an inside pass rush in the nickel.  I've long been a fan of Peppers, which is why I advised Thompson to add Peppers back in 2009.

 

Three years, $30 million feels like a lot of money for a player in his mid-30's but let's compare that to the deal that DeMarcus Ware just signed.  Ware is a very similar player in terms of versatility and production that is just two years younger than Peppers.  Ware recently signed a three-year, $30 million contract with the Denver Broncos but $23 million of that deal is guaranteed.  If the Peppers experiment fails next season the Packers can cut Peppers with very little salary cap ramifications while the Broncos are married to Ware through 2016.  Although I like Ware slightly more than Peppers as a player at this point, when you factor in the structure of each of their contracts, I am a much bigger fan of the Peppers deal.

With Raji and Peppers in the fold, the Packers now have a ton of quality depth along the defensive line to go along with Josh Boyd, Mike Daniels, Datone Jones, and Jerel Worthy. The Packers still have the option of resigning defensive lineman Johnny Jolly and Ryan Pickett but I would be surprised if the Packers signed either player unless they accept a cheap, one-year deal.

The Bad

Besides Jolly and Pickett, the Packers still have tons of free agents that were on The 53 last season that have not signed a contract with an NFL team for 2014.  I am not going to give another detailed breakdown of what Thompson should do since I already did that for the RFA's and UFA's in early January that I updated a week ago.  The one specific piece of advice that I will mention for Thompson is that I still think it is worth signing tight end Jermichael Finley or wide receiver James Jones to a long-term deal.  Besides that, Thompson should let other teams sign the remaining free agents to big money deals.  Once those deals are done, hopefully that will allow Thompson to sign the rest of the players to cheaper, short-term contracts.

The Ugly 

The Packers had 19 players on The 53 last season that were set to become restricted or unrestricted free agents this off-season.  Once Thompson resigned Shields, I thought resigning center Evan Dietrich-Smith became the highest priority.  Earlier this off-season I advised Thompson to sign EDS to a four-year, $16 million deal with $8 million.   Ultimately EDS signed a four-year, $14.25 million deal and $7.25 million guaranteed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers so the Bucs and I clearly value EDS more than Thompson.  This marks the second year in a row that the Packers needlessly lost a free agent to the Bucs.  Last year the Packers lost tight end Tom Crabtree, which I thought was a huge loss at the time.  Unfortunately I think losing EDS is even worse than losing Crabtree.

I know center is not the sexiest position in football but the Packers struggled to replace center Scott Wells after he signed a big free agent deal in 2012 with the St. Louis Rams.  The Packers replaced Wells with Jeff Saturday, which was a huge downgrade till EDS unseated Saturday. Now the Packers have to start over again at center, which tells me they learned nothing from the Wells/Saturday debacle.  The 2014 NFL Draft doesn't look to have an immediate starter at center, which means the Packers will most likely have to fill that void via free agency or in-house.  The one silver lining is that the Packers look settled at tackle (David Bakhtiari at left tackle & Bryan Bulaga at right tackle) and guard (Josh Sitton at left guard and T.J. Lang at right guard) so they can focus on center.

If the Packers look to free agency the only top-end option left is former New Orleans Saints center Brian De La Puente.  I may be in the minority but I favor EDS over De La Puente so I am not sure it is worth breaking the bank for De La Puente.  That means Thompson will most likely have to fill the void a center in-house.  At this point it looks like a two-person battle between J.C. Tretter and Don Barclay.  Tretter tore ligaments in his ankle and fractured his fibula during an off-season workout on May 20, 2013 but thankfully recovered enough to make The 53 at the end of last season.  Barclay is sort of a wild card because he played well at right tackle last season in place of Bryan Bulaga.  When EDS was injured the Packers moved Lang to center, Barclay to right guard and inserted Marshall Newhouse at right tackle.  Barclay had mixed results at right guard, which makes me question how well he could do at center but some of that could be chalked up to how much Newhouse struggled at tackle.  Until the Packers inevitably suffer another injury along the offensive line that leaves Barclay without a job unless he can move to center so Barclay oddly looks like the front runner at center at this point despite never playing the position.

With the Peppers deal out of the way, I presume Thompson will lay low for the next week.  If Thompson makes any significant moves though, make sure to check back for full coverage in this space.

Building The 53 - Updated Advice for Thompson on Members of The 53 for Packers in 2013

I ran an extensive seven-part series in early January for how I thought Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson should approach the off-season (Practice Squad, Injured Reserve, RFA's, UFA's, Potential Cap Casualties, First Look @ 2014 NFL Draft, and Locks for The 53 in 2014).  So far Thompson has not followed very much of my advice besides re-signing cornerback Sam Shields.  We are still awaiting the final details of the contract but early reports are that it is a four-year, $39 million deal.  It will be interesting to see the structure of the contract because before that the Packers had roughly $35 million in salary cap space, my guess is that Shields will eat up at least $10 million of that salary space in 2014.

Anyone that follows the NFL knows that Thompson rarely signs free agents.  Even if Thompson does signs free agents, it is usually younger, low-priced players or guys that grew up as a Packer.  Besides Shields, the Packers have not resigned any of their impending unrestricted free agents that spent time on The 53 for the Packers in 2013.  At the very least, almost all of those players are worth resigning for next season to a one-year, veteran minimum deal (center Evan Dietrich-Smith, quarterback Matt Flynn, wide receiver James Jones, fullback John Kuhn, outside linebacker Mike Neal, defensive lineman Ryan Pickett, tight end Andrew Quarless, defensive lineman B.J. Raji, running back James Starks, and defensive lineman C.J. Wilson) besides (running back Kahlil Bell, linebacker Robert Francois, offensive tackle Marshall Newhouse, and quarterback Seneca Wallace).  Obviosuly some of those guys are worth more than just the veteran minimum so here are my updated thoughts on that front.

Last season Kuhn proved that the fullback position is still relevant given that Kuhn's block helped spring the two biggest plays of the season: Lacy's 60-yard run to spur their miracle comeback against the Cowboys and the Rodgers to Cobb touchdown pass to beat the Bears to win the NFC North.  Despite signing fullback Ina Liaina earlier this off-season, the Packers should resign Kuhn to a two-year, $2.5 million deal with $500,000 guaranteed.

Although I like quarterback Scott Tolzien more than Flynn as a long-term prospect behind Rodgers, in the short run Flynn gives the Packers a better chance to win if Rodgers is out for an extended period time next season.  I would expect the interest in Flynn to be tepid given that he has a reputation for being a 9-to-5 guy with a below average arm that was cut from two quarterback needy teams (Oakland Raiders and Buffalo Bills) last season.  Flynn already made upwards of $20 million between stints in Green Bay so his next contract has to be more about comfort than hammering paychecks.  I would offer Flynn a three-year deal worth slightly more than the veteran minimum with a $500,000 signing bonus and some performance guarantees.  Even if Flynn gets a more lucrative offer elsewhere I wonder if he would want to join his fifth NFL team in less than two years. My guess is that Flynn winds up with the Packers next season.

The Packers have to give wide receivers Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson expensive long-term extensions in the next year, which cuts against offering Jones a contract but if Jones is willing to sign an identical deal to the one he just completed (three-years, $9.7 million with $2.3 million guaranteed) the Packers might be able to keep Cobb, Jones, and Nelson for the next three years while shuffling in Jarrett Boyking-eque players as 4th and 5th wide receivers.

The Packers could have a totally revamped defensive line next season if they lose all four of their free agent defensive lineman: Johnny Jolly, Ryan Pickett, B.J. Raji, and C.J. Wilson.  If that happens it would leave the Packers with four young guys along the defensive line in Josh Boyd, Mike Daniels, Datone Jones, and Jerel Worthy.  Although Raji might have the highest upside, Jolly and Pickett have proven to be useful 3-4 defensive lineman that could be more cost-effective given that most 3-4 defensive lineman are more space eaters than playmakers.  Despite Jolly coming off a serious spinal cord injury, after Raji, I like Jollly slightly more than Pickett.  Even given the flood of quality 3-4 defensive lineman set to be on the free agent market, I would offer Jolly and Pickett identical two-year, $3 million deals with $1.5 million guaranteed.  If either of them are offered a richer contract by another NFL, I would ask them to at least check back before signing elsewhere but I would be surprised if either got a bigger contract offer on the open market.

There was some speculation a few months ago that former defensive lineman turned outside linebacker Mike Neal might get a similar deal to what outside linebacker Erik Walden signed last off-season with the Indianapolis Colts (four-years, $16 million).  That seems ridiculous to me but I would support the Packers giving Neal a three-year, $7.5 million deal with $2.5 million guaranteed that contained some sack and tackle for loss incentives.

The Packers reportedly offered Raji a long-term deal that averaged $8 million a year last season that Raji turned down.  Yikes, either Raji or his agent clearly miscalculated his value because the Packers now reportedly only have a one-year, $4 million "prove it" deal on the table.  Given that defensive lineman in a 3-4 defense do not rack up big sack or tackle for loss numbers, if Raji wants to sign a lucrative long-term deal I actually think it makes more sense for Raji to take a one-year "prove it" deal with a 4-3 team instead of returning to the Packers.  Only time will tell but $4 million for 2014 for Raji's services seems like a great deal for the Packers but a horrible deal for Raji so I expect him to test the free agent market.

Athletic hybrid tight end/wide receivers are a requirement for NFL teams as opposed to a luxury at this point and when healthy, Finley is exactly that type of player.  By all accounts it looks like Finley is rounding into playing shape.  The question is whether Pat McKenzie, the notoriously conservative Packers team doctor, will give Finley a clean bill of health.  If McKenzie signs off on Finley's health, the Packers should throw out a long-term deal (i.e. five-year, $25 million deal) with a modest signing bonus ($5 million) that contains rolling guarantees payable in each subsequent league year.  That contract structure would allow the Packers to get Finely's services long-term at a more cost-effective number.  If Finely turns out to be healthy the next few years and outplays his deals, the Packers could always re-negotiate to add money to Finley's contract.  If Finley is not healthy enough then the Packers could walk away at any point without any significant salary cap ramifications due to the structure of the rolling guarantees.

I am sure there are some Packers fans that are delusional enough to think that they can break the bank for center Alex Mack.  The Browns placed the transition tag on Mack but have so much salary cap space that even if the Packers offered Mack a severely front-end loaded deal, the Browns would most likely match it.  Even leaving aside that spending big money on centers in a zone-blocking scheme seems foolish, the Packers know that Evan Dietrich-Smith fits well in their up-tempo offensive scheme.  The four-year, $16 million deal with $8 million guaranteed that I said Thompson should offer EDS earlier this off-season still feels like a fair deal for both sides.

The Packers are usually proactive in locking up their own players long-term before they become unrestricted free agents.  Unfortunately they did not do that this year presumably in part because the salary cap was projected to be almost $10 million less than it turned out to be.  If the Packers pushed hard to get some of the guys just discussed above to sign extensions earlier this off-season, it would have allowed them to sign some of those guys to below market deals under the guise of having salary cap constraints that never actually came to fruition.  Now that $10 million more became available for each team the asking price increased for some guys, which might have priced guys like Jones and Neal out of Green Bay.  With my updated thoughts for how I think Thompson should approach members of The 53 for the Packers in 2013 out of the way, make sure to check back tomorrow for my thoughts on how Thompson can realistically re-build the defense via free agency.

Building The 53 - How to Handle 2014 UFA's on The 53

There are 13 players currently on The 53 for the Green Bay Packers that are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents in early March, eight play offense and five play defense.  The eight offensive players are: Kahlil Bell (RB), Evan Dietrich-Smith (C), Matt Flynn (QB), James Jones (WR), John Kuhn (FB), Marshall Newhouse (OT), Andrew Quarless (TE), and James Starks (RB).  The five defensive players are: Ryan Pickett (DT), Mike Neal (OLB), B.J. Raji (DT), C.J. Wilson (DE), and Sam Shields (CB).  After reading all the names on the list, you can see that there are a number of very difficult decisions for Packers general manager Ted Thompson.  Back in November after the Packers lost on the road to the New York Giants, I gave very specific thoughts on how Thompson should handle the free agents.  My thoughts changed slightly since November.  As a general matter I see four ways to deal with the aforementioned free agents: let them become free agents, sign them to one-year veteran minimum deals, sign them to reasonable long-term deals, or sign them to expensive long-term deals.

Advice for Ted Thompson

How to Handle Players on 8-Man Practice Squad How to Handle Players on Injured Reserve How to Handle 2014 RFA's on The 53 How to Handle 2014 UFA's on The 53 Potential Salary Cap Casualties on The 53 First Look at the 2014 NFL Draft Locks for The 53 for 2014

The no-brainers are letting Bell and Newhouse leave via free agency.  The Packers added Bell to The 53 in early December to give them some depth at running back but they have a ton of better, younger options at running back in 2014.  Newhouse started every game at left tackle for the Packers in 2012 with sub par results so they moved Bryan Bulaga from right tackle to left tackle and essentially handed the starting right tackle job to Don Barclay going into 2013.  When the Packers lost Bulaga for the season in the preseason, they inserted rookie David Bakhtiari instead of Newhouse so the only way Newhouse saw the field in 2013 was when the Packers suffered an injury along the offensive line.  For how bad Newhouse played in 2012, I actually think he played worse in limited action in 2013.  Given that the Packers have the aforementioned trio of Bakhtiari, Barclay, and Bulaga under contract along with 2011 first round draft pick Derek Sherrod, I would not even tender Newhouse a contract for 2014 because of how much Newhouse regressed the last two years.

I would tell Flynn, Quarless, Starks, and Wilson that they have a one-year, veteran minimum offer ready for them to sign.  Quarless and Wilson will garnering the least interest on the free agent market, which should allow the Packers to resign them both for the veteran minimum.  I would get both deals done right away to hedge in-case the Packers lose all their other free agent lineman (Jolly, Raji, and Pickett) and Finley is unable to return from the serious spinal cord injury he suffered in Week 5 against the Browns.

Flynn had the game of his life against the Detroit Lions to close out the 2011 regular season.  Since then, Flynn had an interesting year and a half where he earned millions of dollars thanks to his performance for the Packers against the Lions as a backup for three NFL teams (Seattle Seahawks, Oakland Raiders, and Buffalo Bills) that each showed him the door.  When I gave my thoughts on Flynn following the loss to the Giants, he had not played a meaningful snap for the Packers.  Fast forward a few months and it looks like the only place Flynn can be a serviceable quarterback is for the Packers.   Even though Flynn engineered a 23-point second half comeback on the road against the Dallas Cowboys, I see other NFL teams being leery that Flynn has only been successful as a member of the Packers.  Bringing Flynn back on a one-year deal allows the Packers to have a nice trio at quarterback of Flynn, Rodgers, and Scott Tolzien with Flynn and Tolzien fighting for the backup spot behind Rodgers.

I really struggled with whether Thompson should offer Starks a multi-year deal.  Talent has never been the issue for Starks, which was evident in the playoff run that lead the Packers to winning Super Bowl XLV.  What works against giving Starks a long-term deal are his injury issues and the quality depth the Packers have at running back since they have starter Eddie Lacy to go along with Johnathan Franklin and DuJuan Harris.  I would be shocked if another team didn't offer Starks a multi-year deal in free agency so I would be surprised to see him playing for the Packers in 2014.

There is no question that Kuhn had the two biggest blocks of the year for the Packers: lead block for rookie running back Eddie Lacy to start the improbable second half comeback against the Dallas Cowboys and the chip on Chicago Bears defensive end Julius Peppers to give quarterback Aaron Rodgers just enough time to find wide receiver Randall Cobb for the go-ahead score to beat the Bears and win the NFC North.  Two blocks should not be the determining factor in giving Kuhn an extension but when you add in that he is a special teams maven, I totally support the Packers offering Kuhn a two-year, $3 million extension with $1 million guaranteed.

After an up-and-down start to his career with the Packers thanks to a mix of injuries and a PED suspension, it took a position change from defensive line to outside linebacker for Mike Neal to show his worth.  When the Packers drafted Neal in the second round of the 2010 NFL Draft, I thought that the Packers should have taken Ben Tate (RB), Terrance Cody (DT), or Charles Brown (OT) instead.  There is no question that Neal has been the least productive of the four but going forward it looks like Neal might be the best of the four over the next five years.  Despite having a healthy Nick Perry penciled in as the starter opposite Claymaker at outside linebacker in 2014, I would still resign Neal to a three-year, $6 million deal with $2 million guaranteed.

Thompson would love to resign Jones to give him a quintet at wide receiver of Jarrett Boykin, Cobb, Jones, and Jordy Nelson.  Unfortunately there is a salary cap and the Packers need to extend Cobb and Nelson before the end of 2014 so it looks like Jones will leave via free agency unless he accepts a below market deal like the one he just finishing.  I would not go much higher than three years, $10 million with $3 million guaranteed but my guess is that Jones is looking for more years and money since this is his last real chance to break the bank in free agency.  Even before the revelations that Jones played the last few games of the season, there was no question that he is a team player.  The question is whether Jones is willing to sacrifice financially to stay in Green Bay.

There were reports in the middle of this season that Raji's agent turned down a long-term deal offered by Thompson that was worth $8 million a year.  I get that Raji wants to test free agency but there is no way any NFL team, including the Packers, should pay Raji more than $6 million a year given his skill set.  At 34-years old, there is no question that Pickett is getting up there in age but he is a perfect space eater in the 3-4 that plays through injury so Thompson needs to think long and hard about whether it is worth resigning Pickett on the cheap instead of investing big bucks in Raji.

Even if the Packers replace defensive coordinator Dom Capers before next season, I would be shocked if they shifted from a 3-4 to a 4-3 so it makes no sense to invest big dollars in the defensive line since they are all essentially large space eaters as opposed to playmakers.  Sure there are outliers like Baltimore Ravens defensive tackle Haloti Ngata that are playmakers but Raji is no Ngata.  Ultimately I think it makes much more sense to resign a guy like Johnny Jolly or Pickett to a cheaper deal instead of breaking the bank for Raji given that the Packers have some quality young depth along the defensive line in Josh Boyd, Mike Daniels, Datone Jones, and Jerel Worthy.

With all of that as background, let's get down to numbers for Pickett and Raji.  I would offer Pickett a two-year, $5 million deal with $2 million guaranteed.  I would offer Raji a four-year, $20 million deal with $5 million guaranteed.  If Raji turns down that contract I would not place the franchise tag on him, instead I would let him test free agency.

After the Jeff Saturday experiment crashed and burned in 2012, luckily the Packers have EDS waiting in the wings as a long-term answer at center.  The Packers have a ton of money invested in their starting guards with Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang signed through 2017.  Since the Packers have all their tackles on rookie contracts they are able to save some money at those spots, which allows them to lock down EDS long-term.  I know this is going to seem like a low-ball offer but I would offer EDS a three-year, $12 million deal with $6 million guaranteed.  If EDS turns that down, the highest that I would go is four-years, $16 million with $8 million guaranteed.

That leaves Shields.  We learned in 2013 that the Packers need a legitimate safety opposite Morgan Burnett.  We know that Chris Banjo and M.D. Jennings are fine backups but not the guy to fill that spot.  There is an outside chance that Sean Richardson is a legitimate NFL safety but he has been unable to stay healthy long enough to prove that on the field.  Why am I discussing safties given that Shields plays cornerback?  I've mentioned this at least five times in this space that I think the Packers should move Micah Hyde from cornerback to safety.  With all due respect to Jarrett Bush, that leaves the Packers with Tramon Williams, Casey Hayward, and Davon House as their only legitimate NFL cornerbacks on The 53 in 2014 unless the Packers resign Shields.  Given the proliferation of the passing game in the NFL, a team can never have too many cornerbacks.  That is why I would offer Shields a five-year, $35 million deal with $10 million guaranteed.  Make sure the first year carries a low cap number because Williams is set to earn $9.5 million in 2014.  Once Williams comes off the books in 2015, even if Shields' cap number jumps, the Packers can justify that expenditure.

Thanks for sticking around for the fourth installment of my seven-part series of off-season advice for Thompson.  I know this one was by far the longest one but given how many players currently on The 53 that are set to become unrestricted free agents in March, clearly Thompson has some tough decisions ahead.  I am sure that I will revisit this post after the Super Bowl as the free agent market starts to form to if Thompson follows any of my advice.  Make sure to check back Monday when I discuss potential salary cap casualties currently on The 53 and signed through at least 2014.

Building The 53 - White out, Tretter in

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson has been active churning the bottom third of The 53 given all of the injuries the Packers have suffered this season.  That churn continued today as Thompson placed Myles White (WR) on injured reserve and added rookie JC Tretter (G/C) to The 53 from PUP list.  There were some questions whether Tretter would be healthy enough to play this season after he torn ligaments in his ankle and fractured his fibula during an off-season workout on May 20, 2013 so it is nice to see him back healthy.  Unfortunately it comes at the expense of White getting placed on injured reserve, which leaves the Packers with only four wide receivers on The 53: Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Jarrett Boykin, and Chris Harper.

Although White made seven appearances for the Packers this season, he only caught nine passes for 66 yards so the Packers can easily replace his production.  Jones is set to be a free agent this off-season so even if he leaves via free agency, the Packers will have a quality trio of  receivers next year in Nelson, Cobb, and Boykin.  If Harper has a productive off-season, the Packers will give him every chance to make The 53 in 2014 as well.  The Packers already placed two other wide receivers on injured reserve earlier this season as well: Kevin Dorsey and Sedrrick Cunningham.  That gives the Packers six, or seven if the Packers re-sign Jones, receivers most likely ahead of White for five or six spots on The 53 in 2014.  That doesn't even factor in the 2014 NFL Draft where the Packers could add another wide receiver.  Taking that all into account, my guess is that this ends White's tenure with the Packers.

Tretter started college as a tight end at Cornell but shifted to left tackle during his junior year.  When Thompson drafted Tretter in the fourth round of the 2013 NFL Draft he projected as a tweener guard/tackle given that he is only 6'4" and 307 lbs.  As it turns out the Packers are going to give Tretter a shot at center and guard in the NFL, which would be his third position change change in just over four years.  Given all of the injury issues starting center Evan Dietrich-Smith dealt with this season, I think it makes the most sense to have Tretter focus on center position for the rest of 2013.  Hopefully Tretter could play center in a pinch, I just wonder how effective he will be given that it is a new position and he is coming back from a serious injury.

All week speculation was expected to focus on whether quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver Randall Cobb would be healthy enough to play this weekend when the Packers face the Dallas Cowboys on the road.  Rodgers is currently on The 53 while Cobb is not on The 53 because he is on injured reserve but designated for return.  The logical move seemed to be adding Cobb in place of White. Since Thompson added Tretter instead of Cobb in place of White, the Packers will have to make another change to The 53 to add Cobb.

If the Packers do in fact make any other moves to The 53 before their game against the Cowboys, make sure to check back for full coverage.  Otherwise, with both teams fighting for their playoff lives, make sure to check back Monday for my thoughts on the Packers/Cowboys game.

The 53 - Five Best Contracts for 2013 GBP

In case you missed it, yesterday I looked at the five worst contracts on The 53, which I had a hard time doing because Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson is very fiscally responsible.  For that same reason, I had a hard time winnowing down the list to just five for the best contracts.  This list doesn't even factor in rookie contracts since they are exempt given that they are so advantageous for NFL teams.  There are almost a dozen contracts that I could characterize as honorable mention so let's get to the five best contracts on The 53:

5. Expiring One Year Deals: As I discussed yesterday, the Packers have a number of quality starters set to become free agents this off-season.  Four players not on their original rookie contract that look like absolute steals in 2013 are: Evan Dietrich-Smith (C, $1.3 million), Robert Francois (MLB, $750,000), James Jones (WR, $3.75 million), and Sam Shields (CB, $2 million).  Technically some of the contracts are off-shots of rookie contracts but I included them to illustrate the point that the Packers have a number of players that are playing for the largest payday of their lifetime this off-season so as long as they stay healthy they will have every financial motivation to play their best this season.  If I had to make a predictions today, I think it is much more likely that Dietrich-Smith and Jones will resign with the Packers than Francois or Shields.

4. Morgan Burnett (S, $3.2 million, 11th highest cap charge on The 53): The Packers rewarded Burnett with a lucrative five-year, $26 million contract ($8.25 million guaranteed) after being one of only two players to play every defensive snap for their team in 2012.  People always talk about how if running backs have too many touches, they are more likely to get hurt the following year that running backs that had less touches.  As far as I know, there has never been a similar study on defensive players.  Given the fact that Burnett player every defensive snap in 2012, the odds of him playing anywhere close to as many defensive snaps in 2013 are low, let's just hope he doesn't suffer a serious injury as a result of playing all those snaps in 2012.  Although Burnett only carries the 23rd highest salary cap charge for safeties in the NFL, his cap charges increases next season ($4.9 million) but luckily Burnett's salary cap charge doesn't spike too much the following year ($5.2 million).  Burnett will not even be 30 before the end of his current contract, which is a good thing, because his 2016 ($6.1 million) and 2017 ($7 million) cap numbers are extremely high for a safety.

3. Jordy Nelson (WR, $4 million, 9th highest cap charge on The 53): The Packers and Nelson agreed to a four-year, $14 million extension ($5 million signing bonus) after the 2010 season.  I thought Nelson was a lock for a long-term extension going into last season but he starts 2013 a little banged up so I wonder if the Packers will delay getting Nelson signed to an extension.  Nelson only has the 32nd highest cap hold for wide receivers in the NFL this seasons, which is way too low for a wide receiver of Nelson's caliber even factoring in his current injury issues.  Add in that Nelson's salary cap number actually goes down roughly $100,000 next season to $3.9 million and the Packers can take a wait-and-see approach with Nelson for the first part of 2013, especially since two of their other receivers Jones and Randall Cobb are in line for lucrative extensions in the near future.

2. Clay Matthews (OLB, $6.7 million, 4th highest cap charge on The 53): The Packers and Matthews agreed to a five-year, $66 million contract extension ($20.5 million signing bonus) to make him the highest paid linebacker (by average annual salary) even though they tacked the new contract onto the end of his rookie contract that was set to expire at the end of 2013.  That means the Packers owe Matthews just under $70 million for the next six seasons.  Call this season the honeymoon season because Matthews carries a cap charge of at least $11 million through the life of the contract with the biggest year being $15.2 million in 2017.  In 2013 Matthews holds merely the 13th highest salary cap charge at outside linebacker.  Since the Packers drafted Matthews in 2009 he has consistently been one of the league leaders in sacks.  If Matthews keeps this up, I see the Packers adding guaranteed money and years onto the contract he signed in off-season sooner rather than later.

1. Aaron Rodgers (QB, $12 million, 1st highest cap charge on The 53): The Packers had Rodgers under contract through 2014 as part of the six-year, $65 million ($20 million guaranteed) deal they agreed to in 2008.  The Packers added five years and $110 million dollars ($40 million guaranteed) on the end of the 2008 deal so they owe Rodgers a little less than $131 million for the next seven years, which means the Packers have Rodgers under contract through 2019.  If the Packers had to cut Rodgers before 2016 they would have a ton of salary cap ramifications: $54 million in dead money if they cut him this season, $47 million in dead money if they cut him in 2014, $30 million in dead money if they cut him in 2015, $14 million in dead money if cut in 2016, and $7 million in dead money if they cut him in 2017.  The Packers do not have any guaranteed money left on the contract after 2017 because they extended Rodgers while he still had two years left on his current contract.  If healthy, there is no way in the world anyone besides Aaron Rodgers is starting at quarterback through at least 2016 so I am not worried about the Packers having to deal with any dead money on their salary cap because of the Rodgers contract. Despite being arguably the best quarterback in the NFL, Rodgers has only the 11th highest salary cap number for quarterbacks this season.  The Packers should enjoy having Rodgers on the cheap this year though because his salary cap number jumps to $17.9 million next seasons, which would be second highest salary cap number for quarterbacks this season behind only Eli Manning ($20.9 million).  Rodgers is going to carry a large annual salary cap charge from 2014 on, but the fact that the Packers were able to front load the guaranteed money allows them more flexibility than the "lifetime" 10-year, $101.5 million contract that Brett Favre signed with the Packers that was renegotiated almost every year to help create cap room.  If Rodgers plays out this contract that means the Packers will have only had Favre or Rodgers as their true starting quarterbacks for 27 years from 1992 through 2019.

A special thanks to sportrac for their detailed NFL salary numbers, which made this post possible.

As the contracts discussed above show, the Packers have been in good financial shape under Thompson save for a few slight overpays, which is why they won Super Bowl XLV and have been a perennial playoff team for the last half dozen years besides 2008.

Check back tomorrow when I give my initial rankings of The 53.

Building The 53 - Roster Heading Into the 2013 NFL Draft

Besides signing Clay Matthews to a mega contract extension, as usual, Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson made very few splashy moves this off-season.  Thompson made more headlines for the players from the 2012 team that he either cut (Charles Woodson) or did not re-sign (Greg Jennings, Tom Crabtree, and Erik Walden) than for the guys he actually signed (Kevin Hughes, Giorgio Tavecchio, Loyce Means, Matthew Mulligan, and Sederrik Cunningham).

As the 2013 NFL Draft approaches, I thought I would take a look at the current roster because although Thompson usually drafts the "best player available", he will have to focus on certain positions much like he did the 2012 NFL Draft when he selected defenders with the first six picks.  Here is how the roster currently looks with the players listed by position, ordered how I would order them on the depth chart, along with my analysis of the positional turnover:

Quarterback (3): Aaron Rodgers, Graham Harrell, and B.J. Coleman
Lost: None
Added: None
Analysis: There are rumors that Rodgers and the Packers are on the cusp of agreeing to the most expensive contract in NFL history but both sides are a few million dollars per year apart with the Packers reportedly offering $21 million a year and Rodgers reportedly asking for $23 million a year.  With a Super Bowl ring on his finger and an NFL MVP Award under his belt before his 30th birthday, there is no question that Rodgers deserves to be one of the highest paid players in football but there is a caveat.  Let's say the Packers and Rogers meet in the middle at $22 million per year.  The salary cap is set to be $123 million in 2013 so Rodgers would account for almost 18% of the salary cap.  Far be it for me to take money away from Rodgers but he needs to keep in mind that the difference between earning $18 million a year and $23 million a year will severely hamper the team's ability to pay other players.

Running Back (3): DuJuan Harris, Alex Green, Brandon Saine, and James Starks
Lost: Cedric Benson (free agent) and Ryan Grant (free agent)
Added: None
Analysis: We will never know how interested the Packers were in former St. Louis Rams and current Atlanta Falcons running back Steven Jackson.  What we do know is that the Falcons and Jackson agreed to a three-year, $12 million contract with $4 million in guarantees.  I hope Jackson just picked the Falcons over the Packers because the Packers desperately need a three-down running back, which is what Jackson will give the Falcons at a reasonable price.  I know Jackson is about to turn 30 but the Packers have been looking for a franchise running back ever since Ahman Green left town the first time.  A few years ago the Packers had a chance to get Marshawn Lynch reportedly for a third round pick but would only offer a fourth round pick so Thompson has a history of holding the line despite having a desperate need. The Packers have not shown any interest in re-signing Grant and will most likely wait till after the draft to determine whether to offer Benson a one-year deal for the veteran minimum.

Fullback (1): John Kuhn
Lost: None
Added: None
Analysis: I see Kuhn being phased out of the offense and not even making the opening 53-man roster for 2013 if some of the younger tight ends I will discuss below can show any ability to block.

Wide Receiver (6): James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jeremy Ross, Jarrett Boykin, and Sederrik Cunningham
Lost: Donald Driver (retired) and Greg Jennings (Vikings)
Added: Sederrik Cunningham
Analysis: A number of outlets reported that last season the Packers offered Greg Jennings a four or five year contract extension worth $11 million a year, which Jennings turned down because he thought he was worth Larry Fitzgerald/Calvin Johnson money ($15 million a year).  Ultimately Jennings signed a five-year, $47.5 million contract with $18 million guaranteed with the Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikings have a rich history of unsuccessfully (James Jones and Aaron Kampman) and successfully (Brett Favre, Robert Ferguson, Ryan Longwell, and Darren Sharper) signing a number of former Packers.  I don't blame Jennings for signing with a divisional rival because fans root much harder for laundry than players. What is lost in the shuffle is that luckily the Packers were not able to extend Jennings at $11 million a year before the 2012 season because they have three stud wide receivers (Jones, Nelson, and Cobb) due extensions in the next few years, which would have been impossible to do with Jennings earning $11 million a year.  In non-Jennings news, the Packers actually signed a free agent wide receiver but don't get too excited because Cunningham looks like nothing more than a camp body that projects as a special teams contributors at best in 2013.

Tight End (6): Jermichael Finley, D.J. Williams, Andrew Quarless, Ryan Taylor, Brandon Bostick, and Matthew Mulligan
Lost: Tom Crabtree (Buccaneers)
Added: Matthew Mulligan
Analysis: After Jennings left via free agency that allowed the Packers to pay Finley his $3 million roster bonus as a part of his $8.25 million salary in 2013.  Finley is set to become a free after the 2013 season.  With the Matthews extension in place, look for the Packers to approach Finley about an extension that drops his 2013 cap number while keeping him under contract through at least 2017.  For how much the Packers are paying Finely, for some reason they balked at matching the two-year, $1.6 million contract that Crabtree signed with the Buccaneers despite the fact that Crabtree wanted to stay in Green Bay.  Instead the Packers signed Mulligan to a one-year, $800,000 contract.  That seems like bad business since Crabtree played the second most snaps at tight end last season for the Packers while Mulligan will be lucky to make the opening 53-man roster. 

Offensive Tackle (6): Bryan Bulaga, Don Barclay, Marshall Newhouse, Derek Sherrod, Andrew Datko, and Kevin Hughes
Lost: None
Added: Kevin Hughes
Analysis: The Packers have a developmental tackle (Hughes), an average left tackle (Newhouse), two effective right tackles (Barclay and Bulaga), and two injury prone left tackles (Datko and Sherrod).  Despite having a number of tackles on the roster, the Packers are going to have some tough decision ahead on which ones to sign to expensive extensions since most of their rookie contracts are set to expire before the end of 2014.  Assuming that everyone is healthy, despite having shorter arms than most left tackles, I would give Bulaga first crack at left tackle and Barclay first crack at right tackle.  After that, let health and performance determine the final two spots between the rest of the guys currently on the roster along with whomever they draft or sign as an undrafted rookie free agent following the draft.

Offensive Guard (4): Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang, Greg Van Roten, and Joe Gibbs
Lost: None
Added: None
Analysis: The Packers have a pair of guards in Sitton and Lang signed to long-term, expensive extensions to go along with a nice developmental backup in Van Roten so they look set at guard, which means it should not be a priority in the draft unless a quality swing guard/center falls in the mid-rounds of the draft.

Center (2): Evan Dietrich-Smith and Garth Gerhart
Lost: Jeff Saturday ("retired")
Added: None
Analysis: The Packers tendered EDS the $1.3 restricted free agent tender so a team could have offered EDS a contract and if the Packers did not match it, they would not have gotten any draft pick compensation.  That seems like a pretty risky route to take for your "center of the future" but the Packers lucked out since EDS signed the tender.  I expect the Packers to approach EDS about a long-term deal before the start of 2013.  The only way that will change is if the Packers use a high draft pick on a center/guard.  In that case, EDS could be playing for a free agent contract elsewhere in 2014.

Defensive End (4): C.J. Wilson, Mike Neal, Mike Daniels, and Jerel Worthy 
Lost: None 
Added: None 
Analysis: I know the Packers rarely dabble in free agency but with their lack of quality 3-4 defensive ends it makes no sense to me that they did not chase one of the premier 3-4 defensive ends in free agency or even bring back a more cost effective option like Cullen Jenkins.  Thus the Packers enter 2013 with question marks at defensive end after Wilson for various reasons: Neal (injuries/PED suspension in 2013), Daniels (high motor but undersized), and Worthy (rehabbing a torn ACL suffered at the end of the 2012 season).  The Packers hosted Steelers restricted free agent defensive lineman Steve McLendon.  The Packers have two things working in their favor.  One, McLendon played for a 3-4 defense.  Much like the Packers did with EDS, the Steelers signed McLendon to the $1.3 million tender so the Packers would not have to sacrifice a draft pick if they tendered McLendon a contract (need to do so by Friday) that the Steelers did not match (have five days from the day a restricted free agent signs an offer sheet).  No matter what happens with McLendon, given their lack of depth, I totally support the Packers using an early draft choice on a defensive lineman.

Defensive Tackle (4): B.J. Raji, Ryan Pickett, Johnny Jolly, and Jordan Miller 
Lost: None 
Added: Johnny Jolly (re-instated by the Commissioner) 
Analysis: The Packers have a young (Raji, 26) and old (Pickett, 33) stud set to become free agents after the 2013 season.  Besides those guys the Packers have a young (Miller, 25) and old (Jolly, 30) question mark.  Jolly is the X-Factor.  After spending less than a year in jail despite being given a six-year sentence for violating the terms of his probation, the word is that Jolly is going to be in Green Bay participating in off-season activities.  The Packers usually do not given second chances like they are giving Jolly.  I am sure the only reason they are doing this is that they are hoping Jolly can return to being the disruptive space eating force he was along the defensive line in the late 2000's.

Middle Linebacker (6): Desmond Bishop, A.J. Hawk, Robert Francois, D.J. Smith, Jamari Lattimore, and Terrell Manning
Lost: None
Added: None
Analysis: After losing Bishop to a season ending injury in training camp, the Packers were clearly missing his physical presence in the middle last year.  The Packers thought they had a budding star in Smith but his uneven performances combined with the fact that he suffered a season ending knee injury makes his star not shine as bright, if at all, in 2013.  It pains me to say this but Hawk actually played well in 2012 filling in for Bishop and Smith.  Thankfully Hawk took a pay cut because he is only entering the third year of a five-year, $33.75 contract.  All told Hawk agree to forgo roughly $5 million in salary over the next three seasons but before you start feeling too bad for Hawk, remember that he is set to earn close to earn almost $11 million over that time frame, which still feels like too much money to pay the Business HJ.  The Packers must see something in Francois because despite all the injuries they suffered at middle linebacker last season, Francois did not play in the middle yet Francois signed a one-year deal for the veteran minimum reportedly in part because he was told he will be given a chance to play middle linebacker next season.  Francois is a special teams ace so I totally support signing him to a one-year deal for the veteran minimum, I guess Francois hopes the Packers give him the best chance to showcase his talent in hopes of landing a big payday next off-season.  Finally Lattimore and Manning look like long-shots to make the roster, especially if the Packers select any linebackers in the draft.

Outside Linebacker (5): Clay Matthews, Brad Jones, Nick Perry, Dezmen Moses, and Micah Johnson
Lost: Erik Walden (Colts) and Frank Zombo (Chiefs)
Added: None
Analysis: According to initial reports, Matthews signed a five-year, $66 million extension that will keep him in Green Bay through 2018.  When you factor in that Matthews is set to earn $3.73 million this season, Matthews is due $69.73 over the next six seasons.  If you ignore the last year of his rookie contract then Matthews has the highest average yearly salary of any linebacker in NFL history but various outlets have done a good job of showing how Matthews really didn't get a better deal than DeMarcus Ware or Terrell Suggs when you look at how much he is set to earn over the first three years of the deal or the amount of money guaranteed over the life of the contract.  Assuming Matthews is clean, he was way underpaid on his rookie contract (five-years, $13.1 million) and now properly paid in his second professional contract (five-years, $66 million) with a chance to get paid one last time in his early 30's.  Juxtapose that with Brad Jones who just got way overpaid by the Packers when he signed a three-year, $11.75 million contract.  That makes Jones the 11th highest paid player on the entire roster even though he will most likely not be one of the starting 11 defensive players in 2013.  I put Jones at outside linebacker despite the fact that he strictly played inside last season because the Packers already have their starters in place at middle linebacker (Bishop and Hawk).  Perry's rookie campaign was cut short by injury but the Packers are counting on him to be their starting outside linebacker opposite Matthews so that leaves Jones as the Jarrett Bush of the linebackers, a highly compensated backup/special teams player that should not play on defense if at all possible. In terms of former Packers leaving for "greener pastures", I get the Chiefs signing Zombo to a cheap, short-term deal (John Dorsey was a long-time member of Packers front office and was just named the general manger) but I do not get why the Colts gave Walden a four-year, $16 million contract.  I don't like the Jones extension for the Packers but I absolutely hate the Walden extension for the Colts.

Cornerback (7): Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, Davon House, Jarrett Bush, James Nixon, and Loyce Means
Lost: None
Added: Loyce Means
Analysis: The Packers lucked out that Sam Shields is going to play for $2 million next year since they did not offer him the highest restricted free agent tender.  Armed with the fact that no one tried to poach Shields from the Packers, both sides need to come to a long-term agreement before the season because I see Sheilds and Hayward as their long-term solutions at cornerback.  Thus if Williams wants to be on the team in 2014, he needs to agree to a pretty significant pay cut like Hawk did to make the last two years of his five-year, $38 million contract more palatable.  Leaving aside the "Big 3" cornerbacks the Packers have an often injured guy (House), a special teams maven that struggles on defense (Bush), and two unknown commodities (Nixon and Means) so as crazy as it sounds, they might be looking at a cornerback sooner rather than later in the draft.

Safety (5): Morgan Burnett, M.D. Jennings, Jeron McMillian, Sean Richardson, and Chaz Powell
Lost: Charles Woodson (free agent)
Added: None
Analysis: The Packers need to start talking with Burnett about an extension because besides Burnett they have four young unknown commodities at safety since they cut Woodson earlier this off-season.  The tepid interest in Woodson is not that surprising, what is surprising is that the Woodson re-signing with the Packers banter has not gotten any traction.  Unless the Packers use a high draft pick on a safety, look for the Packers to approach Woodson about playing as a hybrid gambler in the secondary in Green Bay in 2013.

Specialist (4): Tim Masthay (P), Brett Goode (LS), Mason Crosby (K), and Giorgio Tavecchio (K)
Lost: None
Added: Giorgio Tavecchio
Analysis: Absent injury the Packers are set at punter and longer snapper but that is not the case at kicker.  After an abysmal 2012 season for Crosby, the Packers added Tavecchio to create some much needed competition for the wildly overpaid Crosby.  May the best leg win and if it is close, cut Crosby so you can go with the cheaper leg.

All told the Packers currently have 66 players under contract heading into the 2013 NFL Draft.  Armed with 8 picks, which I am sure will increase because Thompson loves to trade down, by the end of April the Packers could have 80 players under their control when you factor in signing undrafted rookie free agents.

I plan to have a ton of Packer related draft coverage next week but make sure to check back tomorrow because the NFL is set to release their 2013 schedule so I will give my initial thoughts.

2012 Week 16 - Packers wallop Titans

I am living quite a charmed life because I got to see my second consecutive Packers game.  Last week I attended the Packers/Bears game in Chicago with Papa Cheese.  This week I attended the Packers/Titans game with Cheesehead Chick, UP, and Sam.  Luckily we all got to enjoy an old fashion butt kicking with the Packers stomping the Titans 55-7, which was the most points they've scored since October 2, 1983 against Tampa Bay and just two points short of the team record for most points scored set in 1945.

I really enjoyed using Peter King's "10 Things I Think I Think" gimmick last week so I am going to use it again this week:

#1) It took some brass balls to bench starting center Jeff Saturday in favor of Evan Dietrich-Smith.  Apparently the Packers wanted to make the move sooner but losing right tackle Bryan Bulaga for the season forced the Packers to move starting left guard T.J. Lang to right tackle and insert Dietrich-Smith at left guard.  Lang looked uncomfortable at right tackle so they moved him back to left guard and inserted undrafted rookie free agent Don Barclay at right tackle.  With Lang and Barclay settled at left guard and right tackle, the Packers felt comfortable inserting Dietrich-Smith in place of Saturday.  It is only one week so take the results with a grain of salt, but Dietrich-Smith looked much better run blocking than Saturday.  Absent an injury, it looks like the starting offensive line left to right for their Super Bowl run will be Marshall Newhouse (LT), Lang (LG), Dietrich-Smith (C), Josh Sitton (RG), and Barclay (RT).

#2) After starting 2-3, the Packers went 9-1 to control their own destiny for the #2 seed.  The Packers jumped the 49ers in the standings so they are in line for a first round bye.  I know the Packers lost last year after a bye but their last month of the season in 2011 they were barely winning shootouts thanks to their porous defense.  This year the defense is much improved thanks to an influx of young talent via the 2012 NFL Draft and some nice rookie free agent pickups.  All that separates the Packers from a #2 seed and a first round bye is a road win in Week 17 against the Vikings, which would most likely eliminate the Vikings from playoff contention too boot.

#3) Let's relax on Ryan Grant's performance against the Titans: 20 carries for 80 yards and two touchdowns along with one reception for 34 yards.  On paper that is pretty impressive but Grant only gains the yards that are blocked for him and not a yard more and fumbled last week against the Bears.

#4) The defense put up some pretty impressive stats: only gave up 180 yards (79 rushing and 101 passing), had 2 interceptions (Shields and Walden), and 7 sacks (Hawk 2, Jones 1, Matthews 1, Neal 1, Moses 1 and Shields 1).  You read that correctly, A.J. Hawk actually registered two sacks to go along with 20 times that he ran directly into the offensive line without creating any pressure.  While the state line is impressive, don't forget the Packers did that against a number of 2nd and 3rd string offensive lineman since the Titans are missing 80% of their starting offensive line due to injury.  That and Jake Locker looks like a bust just two years into his NFL career.

#5) Nice to see the Packers finally hand out a start to finish butt kicking.  Call me greedy but once the score got into the 30's I was much more interest in the shutout than pouring on more points.  Don't get me wrong, it was great to see the offense in sync but shutouts are so rare that it would have been cool to see a shutout at Lambeau.

#6) What would Chris Johnson cost to acquire via trade from the Titans?  Despite his measly output against the Packers (11 rushes for 28 yards), I still remember how explosive Johnson was when he first entered the league.  I know there is the "Curse of 30" for running backs but Johnson is only 27 and hasn't come close to 300 carries since 2010 so he has fresh legs.  The real problem is what Johnson would cost the Packers.  In 2011 Johnson signed a six-year, $56 million deal, which probably makes him to expensive to fit under the salary cap unless Johnson would be amenable to restructuring his contract for the chance to join an already potent offense like the Packers.

#7) I am going to take the wildly unpopular stance that the Packers need to keep Randall Cobb as their return guy in the playoffs, assuming he is healthy, despite the fact that he got hurt returning a punt against the Titans.  Jeremy Ross looked good returning punts after Cobb left injured but he only has a handful of returns under his belt and one of them was a dropped ball in Chicago on a ridiculous fake punt.  Is that really enough experience for a guy to be your main return-man in the playoffs? Say what you want about Cobb besting Ahman Green's all-time single-season record for net yards because Cobb got to include special teams yardage while Green only touched the ball on offense but it speaks to how well Cobb has done in the return game.  How quickly people forget that the Packers have had an absolutely putrid return game for the better part of a decade until they drafted Cobb.  Plus Cobb is a sure handed, smart football player.  Take his heads up play at the start of the second half when he stepped out of bounds before he possessed the ball on the kickoff netting the Packers almost 40 more yards.  It is one thing to know the rule, it is quite another to pull it of as seamlessly as Cobb did.  With so many quality wide receivers (Boykin, Cobb, Driver, Jennings, Jones, Nelson, and Ross) and tight ends (Crabtree, Finley, Taylor, and Williams) I hope the Packers keep Cobb as their main return guy for the stretch run to the Super Bowl.

#8) Speaking of special teams, let's relax on the Crosby is back talk.  Crosby converted from 26-yards and needed a favorable bounce off the goal post from 48-yards to have his first game since Week 6 that he did not missed at least one field goal.  Let's see him go a few weeks without any misses before we start talking about him being back.

#9) Finley is finally starting to put it together for the first time in a couple seasons.  Before the Packers/Bears game my favorite sports writer of all-time Bob McGinn wrote an article that said according to sources within the organization, absent a huge improvement in Finley's play for the rest of 2012, the Packers were going to trade or cut Finley in the off-season.  It is unclear whether Finley read McGinn's article but Finley sure has been impressive the last two weeks.  If the Packers continue to use the no huddle, I would love to see a personnel package of Randall Cobb, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and Finley.  I know that means the Packers would be without a running back but they could occasionally have Finley line-up as a blocker or Cobb line-up in the backfield as a running back.  As long as the new-look offensive line discussed above can block, quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the aforementioned quintet of skill players would be essentially unstoppable.

#10) I am sure that everyone has holiday traditions that they look forward to each year.  In my family we are starting to make new traditions because two of my cousins adopted children from Ghana.  It is amazing to see these little kids embrace the cold weather and snow in Wisconsin because the climate where they were born is the exact opposite for 365 days a year.  I am sure the holidays are rough for some people so I am not trying to rub it in but enjoying the simple pleasures of Wisconsin when we went sledding yesterday still has me smiling a million times more than any Packer victory.  Happy Holidays to everyone.

2012 Green Bay Packers Roster 3.0

With two preseason game in the books on the road v. Chargers and at home v. Browns, there are still a handful of fringe roster spots up for grabs and almost every practice squad position is far from decided, especially when you factor in that a number of guys that the Packers cut at the end of the preseason will make other team's 53-man active rosters.  Based on what I've seen so far, here are my updated thoughts on what the 53-man roster and 8-man practice squad should look for the 2012 Green Bay Packers:

Quarterback (2): Aaron Rodgers and Graham Harrell
Analysis: In limited action, Rodgers looked sharp.  In extensive action, Harrell has looked anything but sharp.  Week 4 of the preseason will be a big week for Harrell because he will play almost the entire game, which will go a long way to determining whether the Packers add a veteran quarterback to back-up Rogers or stick with Harrell.

Running Back (4): Cedric Benson, James Starks, Alex Green, and Brandon Saine
Analysis: Anxiously anticipating the start of the Cedric Benson era, which will ironically start against his former employer tomorrow night on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Fullback (1): John Kuhn
Analysis: Depending on what Green and Saine show the next few weeks, the Packers might use Kuhn as their 3rd down back because Starks is still hurt and Benson does not have a reputation for being a good blocker.

Tight End (4): Jermichael Finley, Tom Crabtree, D.J. Williams, and Ryan Taylor
PUP (1): Andrew Quarless
Keep: Analysis: Despite all the injuries at some point it might come down to choosing between Williams and Taylor because the Packers have so many needs on defense that they might not be able to keep as many tight ends as they would like.

Wide Receiver (5): Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Randall Cobb
Analysis: Discussing injuries is becoming a recurring theme of this post but it bears mention because the Packers need to get Jennings and Finley on the field to see what their offense looks like with a full compliment of offensive weapons at their disposal.

Tackle (4): Bryan Bulaga, Marshall Newhouse, Derek Sherrod, and Andrew Datko
Analysis: Nice to see Newhouse back on the field and healthy because with Sherrod still hurt and Datko a rookie, the Packers really need Newhouse to not only stay healthy but improve in 2012 to help their offense continue to perform at a high level.

Guard (3): Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang, and Reggie Wells
Analysis: Absent injuries you can write in Lang as the starter at left guard and Sitton as the starter at right guard with a sharpie so it makes sense to choose between Wells and Ray Dominguez for the "swing" backup guard spot since both are below average.  I decided to keep Wells because he is a veteran that can play tackle while Dominguez can only play guard.

Center (2): Jeff Saturday and Even Dietrich-Smith
Analysis: Look for EDS to get snaps at all three interior offensive line positions because he will be the primary backup interior lineman.

Defensive End (3): Jerel Worthy, Phillip Merling, and C.J. Wilson
Suspended (2): Anthony Hargrove and Mike Neal
Analysis: I have been less than impressed with Merling, Wilson, and Jarius Wynn so far this preseason so I couldn't bring myself to keep all three guys.  I kept Merling because despite being a disappointment, at least it gives the Packers some new blood at defensive end.  That means it came down to Wilson and Wynn, which is pretty much a coin toss at this point with Wilson winning because he has been better in the bast defense.

Defensive Tackle (4): B.J. Raji, Ryan Pickett, Mike Daniels, and Daniel Muir
Analysis: The only guaranteed defensive line roster spots are Raji, Pickett, and Worthy.  After those guys, the name of the game is versatility.  That gives a guy like Daniels and Muir a leg up because they can play any spot along the defensive line.

Outside Linebacker (5): Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, Erik Walden, Brad Jones, and Dezman Moses
PUP (1): Frank Zombo
Analysis: Keeping Moses on the active roster instead of the practice squad has less to do with production and more to do with the fact that trusted veterans like Charles Woodson said Moses has a chance to be special.

Middle Linebacker (4): D.J. Smith, A.J. Hawk, Robert Francois, and Jamari Lattimore
Analysis: No one besides Smith has stood out in a positive way at middle linebacker, which is part of the reason why I hope the Packers consider playing some 4-3 instead of 3-4.  The Packers finally have a ton of defensive lineman while they look a little thin, talent-wise, at linebacker.  If the Packers moved to the 4-3 for a few plays they could slide Hawk outside, let Matthew rush the passer and have Smith clog up the middle.

Cornerback (5): Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, Davon House, Casey Hayward, and Jarrett Bush
Analysis: Bush and Hayward both looked a little better this week than they did last week.  Since Shields and House are hurt, if I had to choose a starter opposite Williams I would actually choose Hayward so Bush could continue to focus on special teams where he has thrived.
 
Safety (4): Charles Woodson, Morgan Burnett, Jerron McMillian, and M.D. Jennings
Analysis: Last week against the Browns it looked like McMillian took a step ahead of Jennings but look for that positional battle to remain undecided till right before the start of the regular season.

Specialists (3): Mason Crosby (K), Tim Masthay (P), and Brett Goode (LS)
Analysis: Too bad that Crosby missed a long distance kick against the Browns because despite all the platitudes showered on Crosby, I am still not convinced he is worth $3 million a year, especially if he can't hit from longer than 50 yards.

Practice Squad (8): B.J. Coleman (QB), Marc Tyler (RB), Tori Gurley (WR), Shaky Smithson (WR), Sampson Genus (C), Terrell Manning (MLB), Anthony Levine (S), Sean Richardson (S)
Analysis: The chances of Gurley actually making it through waivers instead of getting claimed by another NFL team for their 53-man roster are slim but I choose to take a glass half full approach.  In terms of the rest of the practice squad, Coleman might make some noise because he looks like he has a cannon for an arm.

The Packers hit the road to play the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday.  Hopefully the Packers get in a Skyline trip because I know every time I visit my in-laws in Dayton, I make sure to have some tasty fast-food chili that is almost as good as Real Chili. Check back tomorrow to read my quick thoughts on the Packers/Bengals preseason game and Monday for my quick thoughts on the roster cut-downs from 90 players to 75 players.