The 53 - Packers are 5-3 & Looking (Pretty) Good

It has been an interesting three game stretch for the 2014 Green Bay Packers since my last The 53 post.  The Packers won on the road over the Miami Dolphins thanks to a 4th quarter comeback engineered by quarterback Aaron Rodgers and followed that up with a blowout win over the Carolina Panthers.  Everything was looking good for the Packers as they went on the road to play the New Orleans Saints on Sunday Night Football before their bye week given the fact that the Saints were just 2-4 heading into the game while the Packers were 5-2.  The turning point of the game was when Rodgers pulled up gimpy with a hamstring injury.  Before that, the Packers and Saints traded offensive blows but with Rodgers hobbled, the Packers ended up losing by 21 points.  Unfortunately that sent the Packers into their bye on a sour note.

The bright side is that their bye week gives Rodgers time to let his hamstring heal.  Given that the 2014 NFL Trade Deadline came and went without any consequence, I thoughts I would drop the rankings of The 53 and just highlight a few players of note on The 53.  Without further adu, here are my thoughts on certain players on The 53 with half of the 2014 regular season in the books for the Packers:

Eddie Lacy (RB): Rodgers missed almost half the season last year in Lacy's impressive rookie season so it seemed like a healthy Rodgers and Lacy would give the Packers their best quarterback/running back combo since Brett Favre and Ahman Green. Oddly so far this season Lacy has been less effective in his second year in the NFL despite the fact that Rodgers has been healthy for the entire first half of the season.  Through eight games Lacy has just 428 rushing yards (17th in NFL) on 105 carries (tied for 29th in the NFL) for a 4.1 yard average.  Lacy only found the end zone on four carries (tied for 12th in the NFL), which is somewhat surprising given how much he can move the pile in short yardage situations.  Juxtapose that with last season when through eight games Lacy had 669 rushing yards on 158 carries for 4.2 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns.  There is no question that Lacy has earned every single one of those 428 yards this season thanks to his punishing running style and the fact that his longest run of the season is just 29 yards.  Although Lacy has not put up huge rushing stats this season, on the surface it looks like he has improved catching the ball out the backfield with 209 yards receiving on 21 catches (4th most on team) for a 10 yard average but take that total with a grain of salt because one of Lacy's receptions went for 69 yards and he has yet to catch a touchdown pass from Rodgers. Lacy's biggest improvement has been in pass blocking, which has limited the number of snaps given to backup running backs James Starks and DuJuan Harris as well as fullback John Kuhn since Lacy is no longer subbed out on third downs.  Starks has just 193 rushing yards on 44 carries for a 4.4 yard average.  I know the Packers want Lacy to be a three-down back but I would like to see Starks get some more touches.  Relax fantasy owners, I have Lacy on my fantasy team too but I like the Packers a million times more than my fantasy team, which is why I would like the Packers to keep Lacy fresh by giving Starks some more touches.  Plus, I actually think that is a good thing for Lacy and Starks given Lacy's punishing running style and how injury prone Starks has been in college and the NFL.  Starks is signed through 2015 and Lacy's rookie contracts runs through 2016.  Sharing carries might be the only way Lacy and Starks see another contract with the Packers.  If I were in charge, I would aim to get Lacy and Starks between 25 and 30 touches combined per game with Lacy getting 70% of the touches and Starks getting 30% of the touches.  For whatever reason the Packers have gotten away from using the screen for the last couples seasons.  Whether it is Lacy or Starks, I would make sure to add that back into the game plan for at least a couple plays each game.

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S): I support all things Cheesehead sports related, which makes me a Wisconsin Badger fan but Lacy and Ha Ha are trying to retroactively turn me into an Alabama fan.  Sure that would make me look like a front runner since they've won three of the last five national championships but I can't underscore how important it is that the Packers got Lacy and Ha Ha in the last two draft.  Lacy and Ha Ha not only are two of the younger and more physical players on The 53 but they help fill specific positional needs of The 53 at just the right time.  There is no question when everyone is healthy that the Packers view Morgan Burnett as their best safety.  The real question is whether Ha Ha or Micah Hyde will cement their place next to Burnett.  So far Ha Ha has played more snaps (422) than Hyde (354) this season.   Ha Ha currently has the third most total tackles on the team with 43 while Hyde is nipping at his heels with 41 tackles.  The difference is on big plays since Ha Ha has a sack, a tackle for a loss, an interception, and a fumble recovery while Hyde's only impact play is a tackle for a loss.  Ha Ha wears 21, which is Charles Woodson's old number but Ha Ha actually reminds me more of a blend of Atari Bigby and Nick Collins.  I know that seems like a pretty lofty comparison given that Ha Ha is just a rookie but I say that because so far Ha Ha looks like a thumper (Bigby) that can create turnovers (Collins).  As a result, I see the floor for Ha Ha as a very rich man's Bigby and his ceiling as a healthy Collins.

Corey Linsley (C): Offensive lineman JC Tretter was nominally named the starter at center after general manager Ted Thompson let former starting center Evan Dietrich-Smith leave via free agency.  Tretter was injured before he could even play a single regular season down so the starting center job fell to Linsley, a guy Thompson drafted in the 5th round of the 2014 NFL Draft.  Linsley has been a rock in the middle of the offensive line given that that he is the only offensive player to play every snap this season.  Its one thing to show up healthy every week, it is quite another to preform well every week too.  So far Linsley has graded out as one of the best centers in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus so even if Tretter can return healthy after the bye week, the Packers better stick with Linsley.  The center position has been a revolving door for Rodgers since he took over as the starting quarterback from Scott Wells to Jeff Saturday to EDS almost to Tretter and finally Linsley.  As crazy as it sounds, even though Linsley is just a rookie, he looks like the best of the bunch so absent injury it looks like the Packers have their starting center settled for the rest of Rodgers's tenure.

Davante Adams (WR): In two of the last three games Rodgers made a conscious effort to get Adams the ball, including targeting Adams in very important spots.  Remember Adams was the target when Rodgers pulled a Dan Marino-esque fake spike and throw in their last minute go-ahead drive on the road against the Dolphins.  Usually defense lineman and wide receivers struggle in their rookie seasons but Adams looks very comfortable lining up outside.  The Packers continue to use the same hurry up package with three wide receivers, a tight end, and a running back.  At the start of the season Jarrett Boykin was the third wide receiver behind Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb in that formation but Adams started to show more and more in practice to supplant Adams as the third option.  Adams has played 333 offensive snaps so far this season (66.7%) while Boyikn has only played 139 (27.9%).  Through eight games Adams has 263 receiving yards on 24 catches and two touchdowns.  Clearly Adams is becoming another one of Thompson's second round wide receiver gems to go along with Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb.  In fact, besides outside linebacker Clay Matthews, no one is poised for more of a breakout in the second half of the season than Adams.

Davon House (CB): When every cornerback on The 53 is healthy the depth chart is Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, House, Casey Hayward, Jarrett Bush, & Demitri Goodson.  That doesn't even account for the fact that sometimes Micah Hyde lines up as a slot cornerback instead of as a safety.  That gives the Packers six, or seven if you count Hyde, viable NFL cornerbacks.  That makes it seem like the Packers are all set at cornerback but Williams, House, and Bush are set to become unrestricted free agents at the end of the season.  Just a few weeks ago it looked like House was going to break the bank at the end of the season given that he is the youngest of the three but Williams found the fountain of youth this season and Bush continues to be the captain of special teams so if House continues to play well I could see him pricing himself out of Green Bay because he is NOT worth what Shields got (four-years, $39 million) but will most likely command something close to that in a contract worth at least $6 million a year on the open market.  Quick side note on Bush, he played the most special teams snaps (169 or 77.5%) of anyone on The 53 this season. The only other non-kicker/punter that played more than 50% of the special teams snaps is safety Sean Richardson (153 plays or 70.2%).  If Richardson can stay healthy, it will be interesting to see if he leads to the end of Bush's tenure in Green Bay given that Richardson is five and a half years younger than Bush.  Back to House, if wants to be paid like a number one or number two cornerback then the Packers should place the franchise tag on him and see if they can get a second or third round pick for his services in a trade.  If House is willing to be paid like a number three cornerback (e.g. three or four million per year) then the Packers should lock House up long-term despite having the young trio of Hayward, Hyde, and Goodson behind him.

Sam Barrington (MLB): For all the talk of the two middle linebacker spots not being very important in the 3-4, the Packers are proof that you still need at least slightly above average play.  When healthy, which is essentially all the time since Hawk has only missed two games in his nine year NFL career, his spot on the field in the base 3-4 defense is secure mostly because he lines up the defense. I've been one of Hawk's harshest critics for his on-field performance but every time a Packer defender is asked about Hawk they say how important he is to the defense.  I've come to accept that Hawk will never produce highlight reel plays that you expect out a player drafted 5th overall but his steady hand is a plus for the defense even though he routinely gets beat by running backs out of the backfield on wheel routes and fails to get home whenever he blitzes.  With Hawk lining up the defense and thus occupying one of the two MLB spots in the 3-4, now the Packers need is a disruptive force that can make big plays at the other MLB spot.  So far this seems like a review of Hawk but that is all meant as a set-up to Barrington because he is the third guy that the Packers have tried next to Hawk this season.  So far Brad Jones played 111 snaps, Jamari Lattimore played 281 snaps, and Barrington played 94 snaps.  It looks like Jones is 4th on the depth chart at middle linebacker but it is hard to tell whether Barrington or Lattimore is #2 on the depth chart given that Barrington started the last two games next to Hawk but Lattimore served as the dime linebacker last week.  If Barrington struggles, unless the Packers make a radical position change, the only other option they have on The 53 is rookie Carl Bradford.  Before you get too excited about Bradford, keep in mind that he is moving from OLB to MLB so I would be shocked if he actually plays MLB this season.  Unless Barrington or Bradford show that they can be that disruptive force, the Packers need to rebuild the MLB position this off-season because if Jones plays another defensive snap for the Packers that will be too soon and Lattimore's star has faded lately.

The Packers have a couple important games coming up following their bye: home against the Chicago Bears and the Philadelphia Eagles followed by a road game outside (you read that correctly) against the Minnesota Vikings that I will miss because of the birth of my first child.  Those are all a prelude to a potential Super Bowl XLIX preview when the Packers host the New England Patriots.

Building The 53 - Changes Galore at Center

Unfortunately work got in the way of the rest of my five-part preview of the 2014 Green Bay Packers season getting posted before the Packers open the season on the road against the Seattle Seahawks this evening.  For those that are clamoring for the rest of the series (see table below), I promise to have it all posted before the regular season home opener next weekend when the Packers host the New York Jets, which I will be attending with Gaber, Sug, and UP.

Review of The 53

Initial Review of the Roster Initial Review of the Practice Squad Five Most Overpaid Five Most Underpaid Initial Rankings of the Roster

In the meantime, I had to write a quick post because Packers general manager Ted Thompson made an interesting move to The 53 yesterday. Thompson placed center JC Tretter on injured reserve - designated for return, which opened up a spot on The 53.  Thompson filled that spot on The 53 with center Garth Gerhart off the practice squad.  That move opened up a spot on the practice squad that Thompson filled with guard Josh Allen.

Since Tretter was placed on injured reserve - designated for return, he cannot practice with the team for six weeks and cannot be placed on The 53 for eight weeks.  Given that the Packers have a bye Week 9, the earliest Tretter can return is Week 10 when the Packers host the Chicago Bears.  Also NFL teams are only allowed to use the injured reserve - designated for return once per season so that ship has already sailed for 2014 before the regular season even started.

In my off-season advice for Thompson I said that he should offer center Even Dietrich-Smith a four-year, $16 million contract with $8 million guaranteed.  As the off-season progressed, I went on record again saying that Thompson was going to regret the decision not to resign EDS.  As it turns out EDS signed a four-year, $14.25 million deal with $7.25 million guaranteed with the Tampa Bay Bucaneers not the Packers.  Clearly I value EDS more than the Bucs, which value EDS more than the Packers.

That means instead of EDS or even Tretter, the Packers are now forced to start rookie center Corey Linsley for at least half the season, which I am sure is not what Thompson had in mind when he drafted Linsley in the 5th round of the 2014 NFL Draft.  Sure you can never predict that injuries would claim backup offensive lineman Don Barclay's entire season and at least half of Tretter's season but let's not forget that Barclay was dinged up last season and that Tretter missed almost his entire rookie season due to injury so seeing them both injured again this year is by no means shocking.  If Linsley struggles this season, instead of playing Gerhart at center, my guess is that right guard T.J. Lang moves to center and the Packers insert Derek Sherrod at right guard.

This post has been a complete downer so far so let's try to find the silver lining in all of this.  The Packers used the injured reserve - designated for return last year on wide receiver Randall Cobb when Cobb was injured by Baltimore Ravens safety Matt Elam.  That worked out pretty well given that Cobb return for the regular season finale on the road against the Chicago Bears.  For those that forgot the outcome of the game, the Packers trailed the Bears 28 to 27 with 46 seconds to play and faced a 4th and 8 from the Bears' 48-yard line. Rodgers and Cobb connected on a 48-yard touchdown pass to seal not only a win but the NFC North crown and most importantly a spot in the playoffs.  Oh and that play also ended the season for the Bears, which is always nice.

Back to Tretter, even if he is able to return Week 10 against the Bears, I have no grand illusions that he is going to be the savior against the Bears this season the way Cobb was last season.  I just hope in EDS and Tretter's absence that the offensive line does not crumble due to their inexperience at center.

One more macro NFL injury thought.  Given the physicality of your average NFL game, the NFL should really consider changing their injury policy.  MLB has a 15-day disabled list, which provides a nice way for MLB teams to deal with in-season injuries.  I am not positive that is the solution for the NFL but there should be an interim injury designation that lets teams open roster spots for healthy players but allows them to do that without having to place players on injured reserve.  For those that do not understand the intricacies of injured reserve in the NFL, when a team places a player on injured reserve that means they lost that player's services for the rest of the season.  Sure there there is injured reserve - designated for return but that can only be used once a season per team.

In terms of my solution, I would allow unlimited two game and four game injured reserve - designated for return.  You can only use the two game or four game designation once a season for each player but can use it on every player on The 53.  The NFL claims to care about concussions so it seems like the two game injured reserve - designated for return would be a great way to encourage teams to hold out players that suffered a concussion.  The pitch for the four-game injured reserve could again be concussions or significant sprains (e.g. high ankle, hamstring, etc.) that necessitate time off but should not claim a player's entire season.  Without those interim designations available, teams are essentially encouraged to rush players at the bottom of The 53 back because they can threaten the specter of placing them on injured reserve.

One final pitch for my two game and four game injured reserve - designated for return.  For the seven games that quarterback Aaron Rodgers missed last season, it was a weekly discussion of will he play or not.  The Packers knew Rodgers wasn't going to play the first few weeks but would not come clean.  Please don't tell me the threat of the other team having to prepare for Rodgers is worth having him on The 53 because most NFL teams are over prepared.  They know the type of gum the 53rd guy on The 53 likes to chew. If the Packers could have placed Rodgers on the four game injured reserve - designated for return they could signed another veteran quarterback for those four weeks and it would have cut down on the rampant speculation on whether Rodgers was going to play.

My expectations for the NFL adopting the injury rules I just outlined are about as high as my expectations for the game tonight, which are very low (see me trying to reserve jinx a Packer win).  No matter the outcome, make sure to check back in this space over the next week as I finish my five-part preview of the 2014 Green Bay Packers with my look at the most overpaid on The 53, the most underpaid on The 53, and my first rankings (1-53) of The 53.

The 53 - 2014 Green Bay Packers Initial Practice Squad

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson finalized the first incarnation of The 53 for the 2014 NFL season. 

Review of The 53

Initial Review of the Roster Initial Review of the Practice Squad Five Most Overpaid Five Most Underpaid Initial Rankings of the Roster

As I discussed in my initial look at the practice squad last year, after Thompson picked The 53, he had to sift through all the other practice squad eligible players to put together the initial practice squad.  Those that follow the NFL closely know that the NFL increased the size of the practice squads from eight to ten this season.  The rule change is very helpful for the Packers given that I've always thought Thompson could fill three practice squads with how well he identifies undrafted rookie free agents that could play in the NFL down the road.  As a preview of how The 53 post is going look each week, whenever I rank players, I am going to only write about the most notable from the group.  Here are my thoughts on a couple of the players on the initial 10-man practice squad for the 2014 Green Bay Packers:

1. Chris Banjo: This might feel like a slap in the face to Banjo given that he was on The 53 for the Packers all last season but in just a few months the Packers went from thin to flush at safety after they moved Micah Hyde from cornerback to safety and drafted Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft. 

Practice Squad

1. Chris Banjo (S) 2. Myles White (WR) 3. Jumal Rolle (CB) 4. Michael Hill (RB) 5. Garth Gerhart (C) 6. Adrian Hubbard (LB) 7. Kevin Dorsey (WR) 8. Justin Perillo (TE) 9. Luther Robinson (DE) 10. Jeremy Vujnovich (OT)

Early this season I could see a safety needy team attempting to scoop Banjo off the practice squad, which will present a tough choice for Thompson.  Whether to add Banjo to The 53 or let him leave.

3. Jumal Rolle: What a 24 hours it has been for Rolle.  Some were surprised that cornerback rookie Demetri Goodson made The 53 over Rolle given how well Rolle played in the preseason and the fact that Goodson is dealing with a concussion.  After Rolle was cut, somehow Thompson did not sign him to the original practice squad.  Thankfully Thompson rectified that error by releasing wide receiver Alex Gillet from the practice squad after less than a day to make room for Rolle.  If Goodson is out long with a concussion, look for Thompson to place Goodson on injured reserve and promote Rolle from the practice squad.

5. Garth Gerhart (C): The Packers went into training camp with JC Tretter as their starting center and Don Barclay as their backup at all five offensive line positions.  Early in camp the Packers lost Barclay for the season with a torn ACL.  Towards the end of camp the Packers lost Tretter for up to a month.  With Tretter and Barclay out, the Packers turned to rookie center Corey Linsley.  If Linsley gets hurt, the Packers will be forced to add another center to The 53.  Since Thompson cannot travel back in time to resign center Even Dietrich-Smith, instead of letting him leave via free agency.  Gerhart is the logical choice if they are going to promote from within.  If Grehart is taking first team snaps in the regular season then the Packers in trouble.

With my initial look at The 53 and ten player practice squad out of the way, make sure to check back soon for my look at the five worst contracts on The 53.

Building The 53 - Roster Moves to 75

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson made a series of moves over the last two days to trim the roster to 75 players by 3 pm CDT on Tuesday, August 26, 2014 in order to comply with NFL rules.  Here is a breakdown of the moves made by Thompson:
- Released (7): Charles Clay (S), Antonio Dennard (CB), Chris Harper (WR), Korey Jones (LB), Ina Liaina (FB), Chase Rettig (WB), and Gerrard Sheppard (WR).

 - Placed on injured reserve (6): Jared Abbrederis (WR), Don Barclay (OT), Rajon Neal (RB), B.J. Raji (DT), Joe Thomas (LB), and Andrew Tiller (G) thus ending their 2014 season.

- Injury Settlement (1): Colt Lyerla (TE).

Much like last year when the Packers went from 90 to 75, none of the players cut were a huge surprise.  I thought Harper was a long-shot to make The 53 but thought he would at least make it past the first round of cuts.  The former 4th round draft pick has been a bit of enigma since joining the Packers last season.  Harper's size makes him an interesting prospect but his shaky hands cost him a spots on The 53 given how many other options the Packers have at wide receiver.

Of the six players placed on injured reserve, Barclay and Raji hurt (no pun intended) the most.  Sure Raji was underwhelming last season but expectations are high this year because he moves back to defensive tackle where he previously thrived.  Plus this year Raji is playing on a one-year, $4 million "prove it" contract after he turned down a long-term deal worth $8 million annually in the middle of last season.  Raji tore his bicep, which cost him the entire 2014 season.  I see Raji either playing for the veteran minimum next year for the Packers or elsewhere if he wants more money.

Losing Barclay to a torn ACL is arguably just as big of a loss as Raji given that Barclay is the preferred backup at every position along the offensive line.  That loss is exacerbated by the fact that unproven starting center JC Tretter is set to miss multiple weeks too so the Packers are forced to slide one of their guards to center or start rookie Corey Linsley.  Barclay is set to be a restricted free agent this off-season so if he recovers well throughout the season that will determine what offer the Packers should extend to Barclay.  My guess right now is that the Packers extend Barclay the lowest possible restricted free agent offer and hope teams pass so they can get him on the cheap for one more year.

The only other notable player put on injured reserve is Abbrederis.  The Packers are deep at wide receiver though so although losing Abbrederis is a bummer, it is not a huge deal because he was going to have to fight to make The 53 anyhow.  If I had to guess right now, I think the Packers will keep five wide receivers Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jarrett Boykin, Davante Adams, and Jeff Janis.  I mention that because Boykin and Cobb are set to become free agents after this season so the Packers will need to sort out what guys to pay.  If Abbrederis recovers well and looks to be able to fill the slot receiver role that could mean Boykin and/or Cobb get a low ball offer or play elsewhere next season.

Last but certainly not least, the Packers reached an injury settlement with undrafted rookie free agent tight end Colt Lyerla.  Never has more been written about an undrafted rookie free agent but it was a perfect storm of sorts given the fact that the Packers are trying to replace tight end Jermicahel Finely and that Lyerla has a chance to be the second coming of Rob Gronkownski, his presence in Green Bay has resulted in tons of coverage.  The Packers waived Lyerla with an injury exemption so once he passed through waivers, they could have placed him on injured reserve for all of 2014 and had his services for 2015.  Given all of Lyerla's off-the-field troubles, it seems like that was the logical move to keep him in a routine and out of trouble.  Apparently the Packers did not think that much of Lyerla because according to the reported terms of his injury settlement with the team, after week eight of the regular season, Lyerla can sign with another NFL team.  Lyerla cannot resign with the Packers till week 14 of the regular season because of the NFL rules that govern injury settlements.  If I was in charge, I would have just kept Lyerla on injured reserve all season in hopes of keeping an eye on him in 2014 with an eye towards adding him to The 53 in 2015 but clearly the Packers have a different view.

The decisions above were the easy one.  Thompson still needs to trim 22 more players from the roster by August 30th at 4 pm CDT.  That means that there are a number of players that need to play well tomorrow night against the Chiefs to make The 53.