Building The 53 - The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly 2.0

The 2014 NFL off-season is turning out to be one of the most active of Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson's tenure.  Thompson followed up the Julius Peppers signing last week by adding another former NFC North foe when he signed former Minnesota defensive tackle Letroy Guion to a one-year, $1 million contract with $100,000 guaranteed.  Slowly but surely Thompson is building the defensive portion of The 53 to be the most versatile of his tenure.  Here is my second look at Thompson's performance so far this off-season.

The Good
Despite the fact that Thompson is spending money like a drunken sailor compared to previous off-season, the Packers will always be predominately built through the NFL Draft.  The NFL recently awarded the compensatory picks for teams that lost free agents following the 2012 season for the 2014 NFL Draft.  The Packers got an extra 3rd round pick (98th overall) for losing wide receiver Greg Jennings to the Minnesota Vikings (signed a five-year, $45 million deal with $17.8 million guaranteed) and a 5th round pick (176th overall) for losing outside linebacker Erik Walden to the the Indianapolis Colts (signed a four-year, $16 million deal with $8 million guaranteed).  I would say the Packers won big-time by letting both guys leave because not only did they both sign what look like a above market deals relative to their skill sets but the Packers can use the salary cap space that would have been allocated to overpaying both guys to invest in better, younger players.  Even better, Thompson gets two extra picks in one of the deepest drafts in the last decade for showing fiscal restraint.

I seem to be in the minority with this viewpoint but as the market for pass rushers continues to shake out, I continue to think the Peppers deal looks like a steal.  The Packers only committed $7.5 million in guaranteed money to Peppers while the Bears signed former Viking Jared Allen to a four-year, $32 million deal with $15.5 million guaranteed.  The Peppers contract is worth a maximum of $26 million over three years not $30 million as was originally reported.  Given the versatility that Peppers gives the Packers to play defensive end or outside linebacker, I would much rather have Peppers than Allen despite the fact that Allen is a few years younger than Peppers.  That is even before you compare the money and years committed to each player.  Although the Packers are scheduled to pay Peppers slightly more on an annual basis ($8.67 million for three years) than the Bears are paying Allen ($8 million for four years), the Packers have much less guaranteed money invested in Peppers than the Bears do in Allen.  Clearly Peppers is not the second coming of Reggie White but he does give the Packers a defensive weapon they sorely lacked last season.

Currently the best front seven defensive players signed for 2014 are: outside linebacker Clay Matthews, Peppers, defensive lineman B.J. Raji, defensive lineman Mike Daniels, middle linebacker A.J. Hawk, defensive end/outside linebacker Mike Neal, and middle linebacker Brad Jones.  The Packers also have some interesting backups in defensive lineman Josh Boyd, Guion, defensive lineman Datone Jones, outside linebacker Nick Perry, and defensive lineman Jerel Worthy.  There is no question that the Packers have a number of versatile pass rushers, which hopefully will allow them to pressure the quarterback and create turnovers that were borderline non-existent last season.

Sometimes the deals you don't sign are the best deals of all.  The Cincinnati Bengals signed underwhelming guard/tackle Marshall Newhouse to a one-year, $805,000 contract with $50,000 guaranteed.  The Newhouse signing feels a little bit like when the Bengals signed former Packer tight end Donald Lee.  Let's just say the Packers did not miss Lee one iota, which I already know will be the same feeling for Newhouse given how much he regressed last season.

Same goes for defensive lineman C.J. Wilson.  I was very high on Wilson at the beginning of 2013 but as the season progressed, Wilson's playing time diminished.  Ultimately former Packer front-office member and current Oakland Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie signed Wilson to a one-year, $795,000 contract with $65,000 guaranteed.  It makes senses to let Wilson leave because he would have been one of the oldest defensive lineman on The 53, yet he would have been no higher than 7th or 8th on the depth chart.

Moving onto another underwhelming former Packer.  Even though safety M.D. Jennings started all 16 games for the Packers last season and was a restricted free agent, the Packers decided not to tender him.  Before the Packers signed Peppers, the Chicago Bears signed the much maligned Jennings to a one-year, $745,000 contract.  For most people Jennings will always be remembered as the guy that helped end the NFL ref lockout thanks to the Monday Night Football "Fail Mary" in Week 4 of the 2012 NFL season but I think of Jennings routinely missing tackles or getting beat deep.  You can surmise that I am actually happy Jennings signed with a divisional rival because it will allow the Packers to exploit him if he actually play meaningful snaps for the Bears  The one-year deal Jennings signed with the Bears is a pittance in NFL terms but with how much Jennings struggled last season, I would rather see the Packers draft Ha-Ha Clinton Dix or Calvin Pryor if they are available in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft.  If the Packers fail to land a quality safety in the draft, they should give Micah Hyde a look at safety but also make sure Chris Banjo and Sean Richarson are ready as well.

The Bad
Besides Wilson, McKenzie recently signed two other players with ties to the Packers.  McKenzie signed wide receiver James Jones to a three-year, $10 million contract with $3.7 guaranteed in 2014 but nothing in 2015 or 2016.  After McKenzie signed Jones, he signed cornerback/safety Charles Woodson to a one-year, $3.5 million contract.  Woodson is one of my favorite Packers of all-time and while my affinity for Jones is not as high, I do appreciate the toughness he gave the Packers despite his occasionally shaky hands.

The Packers look to have a fair amount of depth at wide receiver in Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Jarrett Boykin but all three are due new contracts sooner rather than later given that Boykin is a restricted free agent after 2014 while Nelson and Cobb are set to become unresticted free agents after 2014.  Hopefully Thompson is going to allocate the money that could have gone to Jones to locking down that trip long-term.

Following last season cornerback Tramon Williams, the only member of the secondary over the age of 30, said the defense needed to add some veterans.  That seemed very unlikely given Thompson's desire to choose younger guys ahead of older guys.  Thompson veered from his usual strategy when he signed Peppers and could have continued to improve the defense by adding Woodson.  Instead Woodson resigned with the Raiders for what could be his last season in the NFL.  Ultimately the decision not to bring back Woodson is even more curious than letting Jones go, especially given that Woodson would be a perfect mentor for the young Packers secondary.

Thompson passed on Jones and Woodson but signed oft-injured running back James Starks to a two-year, $3.25 million contract with $750,000 guaranteed.  I know that Starks was instrumental in the playoff run that resulted in the Packers winning Super Bowl XLV but the Packers did not have the running back quartet of Eddie Lacy, Jonathan Franklin, DuJuan Harris, and Michael Hill on The 53 in 2010.  Sure Franklin and Harris are coming off serious injuries but everyone besides Hill are borderline locks for The 53 so I am shocked that Thompson invested that type of money in Starks.  The Starks signing leaves the Packers with more NFL caliber running backs than wide receivers.  Instead of signing Starks, I wish Thompson would have allocated that money to Jones or Woodson.

Thankfully the Starks signing did not dissuade Thompson from resigning fullback John Kuhn.  Thompson signed Kuhn to a one-year, $1 million contract with $100,000 guaranteed.  There is no question that Kuhn brings a ton of intangibles to The 53 given that he has a such a positive locker room presence.  I've been critical of Kuhn in the past but more of that was due to the fact that the Packers overpaid Kuhn $7.6 million from 2011-13.  In terms of on-field contributions, not only is Kuhn a quality special teams contributor, but he made the two biggest blocks of the 2013 season: Lacy's 60-yard run against the Cowboys and Rodgers-to-Cobb to beat the Bears.  When you put it all together, Kuhn is finally cost-effective member of The 53 at $1 million in 2014.

The Packers did not make a strong strong push to resign 2013 starting center Evan Dietrich-Smith so it looks like they are going to give JC Tretter the first chance to win the starting center job in 2014.  Recently the Packers hosted veteran center/guard Mike McGlynn.  Ultimately McGlynn signed a modest two-year, $2.7 million contract with just $200,000 guaranteed with the Washington Redskins.  I am fine with giving Tretter a chance to winning the starting center job but given how cheap it was to sign McGlynn it seems foolish that Thompson did not sign McGynn as a cost-effective insurance policy as a backup guard/center.

The Ugly
Last week tight end Jermicahel Finley worked out for the Seattle Seahawks and apparently failed his physical.  Later reports surfaced that Finley will not be ready for football action for "months", which is after the 2014 NFL Draft.  The Packers have a number of tight ends under contract for 2014: Brandon Bostick, Andrew Quarless, Jake Stoneburner, Ryan Taylor, and Raymond Webber.  When healthy, Finley is the far and away the most dangerous receiver of the group just discussed.

The jury is still out on Stoneburner and Webber.  Taylor is a special teams standout but has not shown much on offense.  That means the Packers have high hopes for Bostick and Quarless.  Thompson just resigned Quarless to a two-year, $3 million contract with $350,000 guaranteed.  Of all the tight ends just mentioned, Bostick has the most potential to be a Finley-esque tight end but needs to stay healthy long enough to validate the so far unfulfilled promise.  Fortunately everyone besides Quarless is on essentially a rookie minimum contract so the Packers do not have that much money invested in the position.  The Packers hosted former Wisconsin Badgers tight end Owen Daniels for a visit but allowed him to sign with the Baltimore Ravens for a one-year, $1 million contract for 2014.  Despite having so many tight ends under contract and Finley's status up in the air, I expect Thompson to use a fairly high pick on a tight end in the 2014 NFL Draft.

That leaves the Packers with six unrestricted free agents that were members of The 53 in 2013: Finley, quarterback Matt Flynn, linebacker Robert Francois, defensive lineman Johnny Jolly, defensive lineman Ryan Pickett, and quarterback Seneca Wallace.  If Finley can prove that he is healthy, he is the only guy that will command an expensive long-term deal that I totally support the Packers offering.  The rest of the guys are one-year, veteran minimum guys at this point so here are my rankings for most to least important: Flynn, Jolly, Pickett, Francois, and Wallace.

Since Guion (Vikings) and Peppers (Bears) were cut by the team they played for in 2013, they will not factor into what compensatory picks the Packers receive for the 2015 NFL Draft.  As it stands right now, it looks like the Packers are in line for a few late-round compensatory picks since so far this off-season they've lost EDS, Jones, Newhouse, and Wilson.  If I had to guess right now, I see the Packers getting a fifth and seventh round compensatory pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.

No matter what happens between now and the 2014 NFL Draft, I plan to roll out a huge "preview" of how I would approach the draft if I was Thompson at the end of April and the beginning of May.  I still see a few moves on the horizon for Thompson ahead of the draft, if Thompson does in fact make any moves, make sure to check back for full coverage

Building The 53 - The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly 1.0

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson rarely makes headlines in free agency but on the brink of free agency Thompson did exactly that when he signed cornerback Sam Shields to a four-year, $39 million contract with $12.5 million guaranteed.  The fact that Thompson made headlines even before the start of free agency might have been a harbinger of things to come because so far Thompson has been very active in free agency by his standards.  Less than a week into free agency, here are my initial thoughts.

The Good

A few days ago I gave Thompson a blueprint for how to re-build the defense via free agency. Although Thompson did not sign the specific players I highlighted, he did follow four of my five pieces of advice: did not sign an expensive safety, signed a cost-effective outside linebacker in Mike Neal, signed a cost-effective defensive lineman in B.J. Raji, and signed an expensive pass rusher in Julius Peppers.  The only piece of advice that Thompson has ignored whole cloth is failing to sign Charles Woodson, which is still a possibly given that he is still free agent.  There is no doubt that Woodson would be a welcomed addition even considering all the moves made by Thompson so far this off-season.

 

Let's start with the Neal deal.  Thompson gave Neal a two-year, $8 million contract with $2.5 million guaranteed.  I thought a three-year, $7.5 million deal with $2.5 million guaranteed seemed fair so the deal Neal signed is slightly more expensive than I would have liked but still a reasonable, cost-effective move nonetheless.  After switching from defensive line to outside linebacker last season, Neal showed the ability to rush the passer but struggled to drop into coverage.  It will be interesting to see if the Packers keep Neal at outside linebacker given the addition of Peppers and the presence of Nick Perry on The 53.

Let's move on to Raji.  In the middle of last season the Packers reportedly offered Raji a long-term deal worth $8 million a year.  In less than six months things have changed dramatically for Raji given that he settled for a one-year, $4 million "prove-it" deal with the Packers.  Although Raji was less than impressive last season, some of that had to do with the lack of big plays the players around Raji produced so he has to be excited about the Peppers signing.

According to initial reports Peppers signed a three-year, $30 million contract with $7.5 million guaranteed that pays him $8.5 million next season.  The Packers rarely sign free agents that played for other NFL teams, let along 34-year old free agents that played for a divisional rival.  The reason that the Packers signed Peppers is that he is a versatile pass rusher that can lineup at outside linebacker or defensive end in a 3-4 or as an inside pass rush in the nickel.  I've long been a fan of Peppers, which is why I advised Thompson to add Peppers back in 2009.

 

Three years, $30 million feels like a lot of money for a player in his mid-30's but let's compare that to the deal that DeMarcus Ware just signed.  Ware is a very similar player in terms of versatility and production that is just two years younger than Peppers.  Ware recently signed a three-year, $30 million contract with the Denver Broncos but $23 million of that deal is guaranteed.  If the Peppers experiment fails next season the Packers can cut Peppers with very little salary cap ramifications while the Broncos are married to Ware through 2016.  Although I like Ware slightly more than Peppers as a player at this point, when you factor in the structure of each of their contracts, I am a much bigger fan of the Peppers deal.

With Raji and Peppers in the fold, the Packers now have a ton of quality depth along the defensive line to go along with Josh Boyd, Mike Daniels, Datone Jones, and Jerel Worthy. The Packers still have the option of resigning defensive lineman Johnny Jolly and Ryan Pickett but I would be surprised if the Packers signed either player unless they accept a cheap, one-year deal.

The Bad

Besides Jolly and Pickett, the Packers still have tons of free agents that were on The 53 last season that have not signed a contract with an NFL team for 2014.  I am not going to give another detailed breakdown of what Thompson should do since I already did that for the RFA's and UFA's in early January that I updated a week ago.  The one specific piece of advice that I will mention for Thompson is that I still think it is worth signing tight end Jermichael Finley or wide receiver James Jones to a long-term deal.  Besides that, Thompson should let other teams sign the remaining free agents to big money deals.  Once those deals are done, hopefully that will allow Thompson to sign the rest of the players to cheaper, short-term contracts.

The Ugly 

The Packers had 19 players on The 53 last season that were set to become restricted or unrestricted free agents this off-season.  Once Thompson resigned Shields, I thought resigning center Evan Dietrich-Smith became the highest priority.  Earlier this off-season I advised Thompson to sign EDS to a four-year, $16 million deal with $8 million.   Ultimately EDS signed a four-year, $14.25 million deal and $7.25 million guaranteed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers so the Bucs and I clearly value EDS more than Thompson.  This marks the second year in a row that the Packers needlessly lost a free agent to the Bucs.  Last year the Packers lost tight end Tom Crabtree, which I thought was a huge loss at the time.  Unfortunately I think losing EDS is even worse than losing Crabtree.

I know center is not the sexiest position in football but the Packers struggled to replace center Scott Wells after he signed a big free agent deal in 2012 with the St. Louis Rams.  The Packers replaced Wells with Jeff Saturday, which was a huge downgrade till EDS unseated Saturday. Now the Packers have to start over again at center, which tells me they learned nothing from the Wells/Saturday debacle.  The 2014 NFL Draft doesn't look to have an immediate starter at center, which means the Packers will most likely have to fill that void via free agency or in-house.  The one silver lining is that the Packers look settled at tackle (David Bakhtiari at left tackle & Bryan Bulaga at right tackle) and guard (Josh Sitton at left guard and T.J. Lang at right guard) so they can focus on center.

If the Packers look to free agency the only top-end option left is former New Orleans Saints center Brian De La Puente.  I may be in the minority but I favor EDS over De La Puente so I am not sure it is worth breaking the bank for De La Puente.  That means Thompson will most likely have to fill the void a center in-house.  At this point it looks like a two-person battle between J.C. Tretter and Don Barclay.  Tretter tore ligaments in his ankle and fractured his fibula during an off-season workout on May 20, 2013 but thankfully recovered enough to make The 53 at the end of last season.  Barclay is sort of a wild card because he played well at right tackle last season in place of Bryan Bulaga.  When EDS was injured the Packers moved Lang to center, Barclay to right guard and inserted Marshall Newhouse at right tackle.  Barclay had mixed results at right guard, which makes me question how well he could do at center but some of that could be chalked up to how much Newhouse struggled at tackle.  Until the Packers inevitably suffer another injury along the offensive line that leaves Barclay without a job unless he can move to center so Barclay oddly looks like the front runner at center at this point despite never playing the position.

With the Peppers deal out of the way, I presume Thompson will lay low for the next week.  If Thompson makes any significant moves though, make sure to check back for full coverage in this space.

Building The 53 - How Thompson can Rebuild the Defense via Free Agency

Yesterday I posted my updated thoughts on how Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson should approach players on The 53 for the Packers in 2013 that are set to become free agents.  Thompson rarely delves into free agency but today I wanted to give him a realistic blueprint for how to fix the defense via free agency.  I could just advise Thompson to sign the top five defensive free agents but we know that is virtually impossible for any team to do, let a long a team like the Packers that rarely dabbles in free agency, so here are the types of players that Thompson should target in the free agency to help rebuild the defense for next season.

Avoid Expensive Safeties: The free agent safety position is very deep this year and coincidentally that is currently the biggest need for the Packers.  Right now Jarius Byrd and T.J. Ward are the two most attractive free agents but there is also a second tier of free agent safeties that includes the likes of Malcom Jenkins, Donte Whitner, Antoine Bethea, Mike Mitchell, and Louis Delmas.  Given the positional need I was tempted to advise Thompson to spend heavily on a safety but for three reasons.  First, the Packers gave safety Morgan Burnett a five-year, $26 million deal with $8.25 million guaranteed last off-season and the Packers can only commit so much money to the position.  Second, since the Packers signed Sheilds to a four-year, $39 million contract they now have five potential starting cornerbacks on The 53 in Shields, Tramon Williams, Casey Hayward, Davon House, and Micah Hyde.  Instead of handing out a big free agent contract to Byrd or Ward, it makes much more senses to move Hyde to safety. Third, even if the Packers move Hyde to safety, they might be able to get Ha Ha Clinton Dix or Calvin Pryor with their first round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, which would give them a couple more cost-effective options than Byrd or Ward.  Leaving all that rational thought aside players like Byrd and Ward rarely hit free agency so if there was no salary cap I would be fine with the Packers signing either of them to a contract that is slightly more expensive than Burnett's contract but realistically it just makes more sense to move Hyde to safety, draft a safety, or sign a cheaper veteran to a short-term deal.

Cost-Effective Outside Linebacker: A week ago it looked like Brian Orakpo and Jason Worilds, the two most attractive free agents at outside linebacker, were going to get to test the free agent market.  Unfortunately their employers for 2013 used different tags to essentially take them off the market: Orakpo (Franchise Tag, Redskins) and Worilds (Transition Tag, Steelers).  If the Packers tried to sign Orakpo to an expensive long-tern deal it would cost them two first round picks on top of the expensive contract they gave Orakpo, which makes no senses. The Packers might have offered Worilds a long-term deal since it would not have cost them draft picks to do so given that the Steelers only put the transition tag on him.  The upshot of the transition tag is that it gives teams the right to match whatever offer-sheet a player signs but given that the Steelers have very little salary cap space, they most likely would not have been unable to match any front-end loaded deal another team offered Worlids.  This is all water under the bridge given that Worilds signed his tender, which prevented him from shopping around for a lucrative long-term deal elsewhere, an odd choice by Worlids to say the least.  That leaves veterans over the age of 30 like Shaun Phillips and Calvin Pace or younger players like O'Brien Schofield.  I've long been an admirer of Schofield's talents dating back to his days at Wisconsin.  Unfortunately Schofield was rehabbing a serious knee injury heading into the 2010 NFL Draft, which caused him to drop from a first round prospect to a mid-round prospect.  It seems like that injury has clouded Schofield's NFL career so far.  Given that Schofield re-negotiated his deal last season to take less money as a member of the Seattle Seahawks and just finished his rookie contract, I am sure that he is looking to get paid this off-season.  A two-year, $2.5 million deal with $750,000 guaranteed makes sense to me for Schofield.  Moving onto the older options, I favor Phillips over Pace.  The Packers rarely sign free agents, let alone guys that are in their 30's but the beauty of giving Phillips a one-year, $1.5 million deal is that he gives the Packers a proven pass rusher opposite Claymaker.  Sure that might stunt Nick Perry's grow or mean that Mike Neal signs elsewhere but the Packers need actual production at outside linebacker from someone besides Claymaker.

Expensive Pass Rusher: The Packers used first round picks in the last two drafts on pass rushers: defensive end/outside linebacker Nick Perry in 2012 and defensive lineman Datone Jones in 2013.  So far Perry and Jones have been underwhelming to say the least.  Part of that is due to the fact that the Packers are not playing both guys in their proper position.  The Packers tried to get Perry to play outside linebacker even though he played defensive end in college because the Packers are desperately seeking an outside linebackers to play opposite Clay Matthews.  Jones looked like Cullen Jenkins 2.0 going into the 2013 NFL Draft but struggled last season to live up to the hype as a rookie.  I expect Jones to have a huge sophomore season in the NFL next year given that defensive line has one the highest learning curves from college to the NFL.  I've long advocated that the Packers should occasionally line-up in a 4-3 scheme mostly because it would play to the strengths of The 53, especially Jones as an inside pass rusher and Perry from his natural position of defensive end.  If the Packers don't want to mix it up on defense then throwing big money after Michael Bennett or Michael Johnson is just throwing good money away but if they are open to playing some 4-3 then spending some serious money on Bennett or Johnson, i.e. five-years, $30 million with $12.5 million guaranteed, actually seems prudent.

Charles Woodson (S): Last season was the first year that the Packers went an entire season without an interception by one of their safeties in over 60 years.  Woodson was only a member of The 53 for the Packers for seven seasons but I don't think it is a coincidence the year that Woodson leaves the safeties fail to get an interception.  I valued Woodson so much for the Packers last year that I advocated for them to keep him at his bloated $10 million salary instead of cutting him like they ultimately did.  Woodson ultimately played for the Oakland Raiders for a fraction of $10 million last season but his presence might have been the difference last season for the Packers.  I know that seems totally impractical given that Woodson is more of a gambler at this point in his career but with how many big plays the safeties gave up last season for the Packers, at least if Woodson was on the team you know some of those plays would have been turnovers.  In honor of his number, the Packer should give Woodson a one-year, $2.1 million deal to finish out his career in Green Bay.  Assuming Woodson stays healthy, worst case scenario he plays a hybrid corner/safety for the Packers and creates a handful of turnovers in 2014.  Best cases scenario, Woodson takes Hayward and Hyde under his wing to help them turn into younger, better versions of him for the Packers for the next decade.  Plus I want to be able to wear my Charles Woodson jersey some weekends again next season to give my Eddie Lacy jersey an occasional rest.

Moderately Prices Defensive Lineman: There is a ton of depth at defensive line in free agency, which is helpful for the Packers given that they could lose all three players (Johnny Jolly, Ryan Pickett, and B.J. Raji) that started along the defensive line for them last season to free agency.  There are too many options to name but on the more expensive side I favor the likes of Linval Joseph, Lamar Houston, and Arthur Jones while on the more cost-effective side I favor the likes Tyson Jackson, Ziggy Hood, Justin Tuck, and Willie Young.  Of all the player just discussed, Joseph looks like the perfect combo defensive lineman to play all three defensive line positions for the Packers in 2014 so I hope the Packers offer Joseph a five-year, $20 million deal with $7.5 million guaranteed.

Teams can negotiate with free agent but cannot officially sign most of those players until Tuesday.  Hopefully Thompson will take some of my advice above.  Either way, make sure to check back in this space for full coverage this week as players actually start to sign.

Building The 53 - Packers release Charles Woodson

New broke this morning via Twitter when the official account for Charles Woodson Wines posted this:

Thank you Green Bay it was a great run! twitter.com/TwentyFourWine…
— Rick Ruiz (@TwentyFourWines) February 15, 2013

A few hours later, Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson released this statement:

"We are grateful for all that Charles has given to the Green Bay Packers over the past seven years.  He has been an integral part of the Packers’ success and our Super Bowl title in 2010 would not have been possible without his contributions. A once-in-a-generation talent as a player, he is also a great leader and ambassador for the organization off the field. Charles will always be a member of the Packers family and we look forward to his eventual induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. We wish him and his family all the best."

A few weeks ago I advocated for the Packers to keep Woodson in my annual off-season advice for Thompson but deep down I knew that Woodson's $10 million salary in 2013 was untenable, especially since the Packers don't have very much salary cap room for next season and they need to extend at least three franchise players (James Jones, Clay Matthews and B.J. Raji) before the end of next season.  It is really hard to succinctly summarize the career of one of the greatest defensive players in NFL history but I will try, with a focus on his years in Green Bay.

Woodson won the Heisman Trophy in 1997 en route to helping Michigan win a share of the 1997 National Championship with Nebraska.  Woodson was the first predominately defensive player to win the Heisman. I said predominately because it was Woodson's kick return ability that catapulted him over Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf, and Randy Moss not just his defensive abilities alone.  The Oakland Raiders drafted Woodson with the 4th pick in the 1998 NFL Draft.  Woodson made a splash right away in the NFL winning the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 1998.  Woodson went on to play for the Oakland Raiders from 1998 to 2005 but the end of his tenure in Oakland was marred by injury.

Woodson reluctantly signed a huge seven year, $52 million contract with the Green Bay Packers in 2006 to start the most magical seven year defensive run (note that Reggie White played for the Packers for six years from 1993 to 1998) in franchise history.  In Woodson's seven seasons in Green Bay he started 100 regular season games and 10 playoff games.  As a member of the Packers, Woodson was twice named to the AP All-Pro first-team (2009 and 2011) and a four time Pro Bowler (2008-11). Woodson finished his Packer career with 99 pass break-ups, 38 interceptions, and 11.5 sacks.  Woodson only had one interception this season because he missed nine games with a broken collarbone so that means he amassed 37 interceptions over six seasons in Green Bay. Woodson had at least seven interceptions in 2006, 2009, 2009, and 2011 to join Bobby Dillion as the only players to accomplish such a feat in franchise history.

Woodson's turnover numbers are quite impressive but it was his ability to convert those turnovers into touchdowns that sets him apart from other defensive ball hawks.  Woodson had 10 defensive touchdowns (nine INTs and one fumble return) as a member of the Packers, which is the most in franchise history.  When you add in Woodson's defensive touchdown with the Raiders, it puts him only one defensive touchdown behind Rod Woodson for most regular season defensive touchdowns in NFL history.

Woodson's 2009 and 2010 seasons in Green Bay stand out the most to me.  Statistically speaking, Woodson's best season in Green Bay was 2009 when he was named 2009 AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year thanks to amassing 65 tackles, 21 passes defended, nine interceptions, four forced fumbles, and two sacks.  Although Woodson only had two interceptions in 2010, he posted a career high in tackles (76) and forced fumbles (5) to help the Packers win their first Super Bowl since Super Bowl XXXI.

A big part of sports is commiserating with friends and family about it.  Here are two text exchanges that I had earlier today that pretty much sums up my thoughts:

Let me give you a little background on the end of that exchange.  Gaber was quoting me from one of my worst performances at a Packer game.  As I discussed in this space a few times, I've been to almost every Packers/Bears game in Chicago over the last decade.

Things have gone the Packers way for almost all of those games with their 2007 regular season match-up being an outlier.  The 12-2 Packers traveled to play the 5-9 Bears on a brutally cold day.  Fernando, Gaber, Sug, and I started the day early with some Andre champagne (later used by the Milwaukee Brewers to celebrate making the playoffs) and things went downhill from there.

We "snuck" in a number of bottles of Baileys into Soldier Field.  I say "snuck" because I was definitely over-served before we got to the game so I was dropping them left and right as we tried to enter the game.  Luckily, actually probably unluckily, we made it into the game.

The Packers ultimately lost 35-7 in a meaningless game.  Instead of taking the loss graciously, I offended both Bears and Packers fans by continually calling the Bears a horrible organization and listing off how much better the Packers have been over the last few decades.  Although everything I said that day was true, still not my finest hour.

Back to Woodson getting cut by the Packers, here is another text message exchange from later in the day:

This turned into the longest "Quick Thoughts" post ever and probably should have been a Sunday (not so) Funday post but I am going to the Hockey City Classic at Soldier Field on Sunday with Dre, Nick, Sug, and Tessa so I plan on posting my extended thoughts on seeing Wisconsin and Minnesota face-off (great pun huh) as a Sunday Funday post.

Check back soon for more of my thoughts on the business side of the Packers parting ways with Woodson, but I will leave you with this.  Earlier this year Cheesehead Chick, Dre, Gaber, Nick, Sug, Tessa, and I went to the Packers/Vikings playoff game.  I was pretty sure that would be Chuck's last home game in Green Bay and based on this picture, it looks like Chuck knew it too...

Building The 53 - Initial Advice for Ted Thompson

The Green Bay Packers usually have at least a 20% turnover of their 53-man roster from one season to the next so that means general manager Ted Thompson will have some tough decisions to make over the next month.  Just like I've done the last two off-seasons (2011 and 2012), here is my friendly advice for how to deal with the players on the current roster at the end of the 2012 season:

#1) Approach Jeff Saturday about retiring.  After a lackluster season with the Packers that ended with him being voted the starting center on the NFC Pro Bowl team despite not starting for his own team, Saturday played his last snap as a Packer.  Just to frame the decision, Saturday signed a two-year, $7.75 million contract before the 2012 season and made roughly $4 million in 2012.  If Saturday retires, the Packers save $3.8 million in cap room ($1.35 million base salary, $2.4 million roster bonus, and $50,000 potential pro bowl bonus) in 2013 and only have to count $825,000 of his pro-rated signing bonus on the 2013 salary cap instead of only saving $2.2 million when the Packers inevitably cut Saturday if he doesn't retire.

#2) Extend tenders to all restricted free agents.  There are some restricted free agents the Packers should value more than others but absent injury, all deserve a chance to earn a roster spot in 2013 so I would tender Tom Crabtree (TE), Evan Dietrich-Smith (C), Robert Francois (LB), Sam Shields (CB), and Frank Zombo (OLB).  According to Albert Breer of the NFL Network the restricted free agent tender amounts for 2013 are $2.879 Million (1st Round compensation), $2.023 Million (2nd Round compensation), and $1.323 million (original draft round). All the restricted free agents are undrafted free agents, which makes the lowest tender risky since the Packers could lose all of them without any immediate draft pick compensation but could get compensatory draft picks the following year.  I would give Shields the highest tender of $2.879 million and give Crabtree, Dietrich-Smith, Francois, and Zombo the second round tender of $2.023 million.

#3) Approach A.J. Hawk, John Kuhn, and Charles Woodson about taking a pay cut.  If all three are not interested in taking a substantial pay cut then things get interesting.  If the Packers cut Hawk after June 1st, they save $5.5 million of cap space in 2013 but that puts $3.2 million of dead money on the 2014 salary cap.  That is not usually the Packer way but delaying the hit till 2014 makes sense if Hawk will not take a paycut.  If the Packers cut Kuhn, they get almost $2.5 million in salary cap space in 2013 and the only cap charge they would take is $250,000 for the amortization of his signing bonus.  If Woodson won't take a pay cut, keep him on the roster for at least 2013 because I am convinced 2012 was an aberration as opposed to the start of his decline.  Even though Woodson will be 36 at the start of next season, he is the perfect hybrid cornerback/safety to roam the field looking for turnovers.  Don't believe me?  Aaron Rodgers agrees with me and let's not forget the last time Rodgers spoke up about a personnel decision it was for the Packers to re-sign James Jones after the 2010 season so Rodgers is both selective in speaking up and usually correct.  Plus we need to see Woodson doing Woodson things for the Packers for at least one more season.

#4) Franchise tag on Greg Jennings.  This presumes that Hawk, Kuhn, and Woodson take a pay cut while Saturday retires.  If all of those things don't happen, the Packers would not have the temporary salary cap space to franchise and trade Jennings.  The recent chatter is that Jennings will not get anywhere close to the five-year, $55,555,555 contract with $26 million guaranteed but I still see at least one wide receiver starved NFL team offering their first round pick (or second round pick at worst) in exchange for Jennings.  That or look for the Dolphins and Packers to franchise tag and trade Jake Long (LT) for Jennings straight up.  Despite Long struggling in the zone blocking scheme under former Packers coaches Joe Philbin and Mike Sherman last season that ended with him going on injured reserve, he is still one of the best left tackles in the NFL.  Don Barclay, Bryan Bulaga, Marshall Newhouse, and Derek Sherrod are all fine NFL offensive tackles but can't hold Long's jock. The Dolphins need a wide receiver and the offensive coaches in Miami worked extensively with Jennings.  This trade makes too much sense so the chances of it happening are slim but it seems like the perfect win-win deal for both teams where they can control the contract negotiation process with their now asset instead of bidding against a number of other suitors in free agency.  Even if the Long for Jennings trade is a pipe dream, losing Jennings for merely a late round compensatory draft pick like they did with Aaron Kampman and Cullen Jenkins is foolish.

#5) Sign Clay Matthews and B.J. Raji to contracts extension before the start of the 2013 season.  There is a ton of future salary cap uncertainty hanging over the Packers since Matthews and Raji are set to become free agents after the 2013 season.  Athletes First currently represents five Packers: three high profile (Matthews, Raji, and Rodgers) and two backups (Graham Harrell and Ryan Taylor).  Although Athletes First wants to maximize every dollar for their clients, they need to make sure there is enough money to go around for their three high profile clients because one way or another, all three will be wearing the green and gold well beyond 2013.  The question is how much will that cost the Packers?  Rodgers will make the most followed by Matthews and Raji.

#6) Let some, not all, unrestricted free agents leave.  The Packers should let Donald Driver, Ryan Grant, and Brad Jones leave via free agency.  The decision on Grant is the easiest since he was the 6th or 7th best running back on the roster in 2012.  The decision to let Jones leave via free agency is partially due to the glut of capable middle linebackers (Bishop, Smith, Hawk, Manning, and Lattimore) already on the roster combined with how horrible Jones looked in coverage down the stretch after a promising start.  That brings us to DD, who is currently my second favorite Packer of all-time, wedged right between Favre (#1) and Rodgers (#3).  It is sad how 2012 played out in the field for DD but that does not diminish the legacy of one of the all-time great stories in Packers and possibly NFL history.

#7) Don't extend Aaron Rodgers yet.  There is all this talk that the Packers need to extend Rodgers sooner rather than later but I disagree.  Let's not forget that the Packers signed Rodgers to a six-year, $65 million contract with $20 million guaranteed after only a few professional starts in 2008.  Rodgers knows the Packers are committed to him but if they give Rodgers too much money they will not be able to pay the protectors (offensive lineman), weapons (skill position players on offense), and defensive cogs (Matthews, Raji, et al.) to keep the team competitive.  Look for the Packers to wait till after the 2013 season unless Rodgers will sign a "club friendly" contract because absent a career ending injury, Rodgers will sign at least one more mega contract with the Packers no matter what.  The Packers might as well sign a mega deal that they don't have to keep re-negotiating like they did with Favre to create new cap room every off-season.

#8) Negotiate a long-term extension with Jermichael Finley (TE) that lowers his 2013 cap charge.  Finley signed a two-year, $14 million contact before the 2012 season.  As a part of that deal, Finley is due a $3.5 million roster bonus on the 15th day of the 2013 league year.  If Finley's agent is unwilling to discuss an extension, at least get Finley to push back his roster bonus a few months while both sides discuss a long-term deal.  Let's not forget that in the middle of December it looked like Finley was going to be a salary cap casualty thanks to the aforementioned roster bonus and an $8.75 million cap hit for 2013.  After a strong finish to the season, Finley has to be in the team's long-term plans.  Much like Matthews, Raji, and Rodgers...the question is how much will Finely cost?  The New England Patriots set the market for Finley because he probably deserves to be paid more than Aaron Hernandez (seven-year, $41 million contract with $16.4 million guaranteed) but less than Rob Gronkowski (eight-year, $55 million contract with $14 million guaranteed).  A six-year, $45 million deal with $20 million guaranteed seems fair for a guy that I predict will end up going to the NFL Hall of Fame.

#9) Play the "wait and see" approach with Cedric Benson and Erik Walden.  Both Benson and Walden are set to become unrestricted free agents.  Let both test the free agent market to see if they can get something more that a one-year deal for the veteran minimum.  If so, thank them for their services and let them leave.  If not, offer them both a one-year contract for the veteran minimum after the draft.

#10) Draft a place kicker in the 6th or 7th round of the 2013 NFL Draft and cut Mason Crosby after June 1st. Place kicker accuracy is inherently volatile, a study over a ten year period found that there is no correlation between previous and future place kicking performance.  Thus a Bottom 10 kicker in terms of accuracy is just as likely to be a Top 10 kicker the following so cycle hot kickers on the cheap.  Crosby is currently the 10th highest paid place kicker thanks to the insane five-year, $14.75 million contact with a $3 million signing bonus he signed in 2011.  The Packers would gain roughly $3 million of cap space in 2013 at the expense of a $1.8 million cap charge in 2014 if they cut Crosby after June 1st.  Presuming the kicker they draft makes $600,000 in 2013 that gives the Packers $2.4 million in cap room to spend on extensions for the plethora of players discussed above.

I obviously find all of the aforementioned moves sensible but would be shocked if even half happen.  Check back for more Cheesehead sports coverage in the next few weeks as the NBA trade deadline and spring training approach.

2012 Wildcard Round Playoff Review of Packers/Vikings

The weekend got off to a great start Friday afternoon with an unprecedented hour long conference call with Mark Murphy, the President of the Green Bay Packers.  Obviously this is catnip to a Packer fan like me but being as objective as possible, it was nice to hear Murphy field fan questions while having an open and honest discussion about the state of the organization.

Cheesehead Chick, Dre, Tessa, Nick, Sug, and me left Chicago early Saturday morning.  We snagged Gaber, The Burban (aka The Seamonster's grandpa), and some tasty sausages in Milwaukee then headed for Graceland.  After a quick stop at the Aloft Green Bay to check into the hotel and throw on a couple extra layers, we hopped back into The Burban to choose the proper tailgating spot by Lambeau Field.

Green Bay has to be one of the only towns that actually encourages parking and tailgating in yards around the stadium.  We decided not to tailgate in a yard since we were leaving our car overnight.  We had a great set-up of bags, rum apple cider, and plenty of tasty treats.  As expected, it was super cold at the tailgate but that didn't damper any of the fun.  A fellow tailgater dropped their ticket and was unable to find it until we got Dre on the case to save the day.  All of this happened as rumors spread that the Vikings were going to start Joe Webb instead of Christan Ponder at quarterback.  There was talk of Webb possibly playing because Ponder was banged up but no actually thought Ponder would be inactive.  About 90 minutes before kickoff the official word spread that Ponder was inactive so Webb started at quarterback for the Vikings.

The Vikings lost 10 of their last 12 trips to Green Bay.  If more Vikings fans were being honest, they knew that number was going to extend to 11 of their last 13 when Webb was named the starting quarterback.  Here are "10 Things I Think I Think" (trademark Peter King) about the Packers' 24 to 10 win over the Vikings:

#1) The Packers spread the ball around through the air so it is hard for any one guy to rack up a ton of rushing yards (lack of opportunities) or receiving yards (too many options).  That's why despite Rodgers throwing for more than 4,000 yards, he did not have a 1,000 yard receiver.  The Packers' leading receiver in the regular season was Randall Cobb with 954 yards and their leading rusher was Alex Green with 464 yards.  That makes the 2012 Packers the 3rd playoff team (1986 Kansas City Chiefs and 1991 New Orleans Saints) in the last 30 years without a 1,000 yard receiver or 500 yard rusher in the regular season.  Case and point, Rodgers tied an NFL playoff record by completing a pass to 10 different players against the Vikings: Randall Cobb (1 catch for 7 yards), Tom Crabtree (1 catch for 10 yards), Jermichael Finley (1 catch for 10 yards), Ryan Grant (1 catch for 16 yards), DuJuan Harris (5 catches for 53 yards), Greg Jennings (4 catches for 61 yards), James Jones (4 catches for 51 yards), John Kuhn (2 catches for 15 yards & a TD), Jordy Nelson (3 catches for 51 yards), and Ryan Taylor (1 catch for 0 yards).  Too bad tight end D.J. Williams or running back Alex Green couldn't snag a pass (wide receivers Jarrett Boykin and Donald Driver were inactive) to give Rodgers the record of completing a pass to 11 (or 12) different receivers in a playoff game.  For the day, Rodgers completed 22 of 33 passes for 274 yards and a touchdown.

#2) The captains for the game were Aaron Rodgers (QB) and James Jones (WR) on offense, Clay Matthews (LB) and Charles Woodson (CB) on defense, and Jarrett Bush (DB) and Jamari Lattimore (LB) on special teams.  All of those make sense to me, especially Jones since he was exceptional all season.  I was way off the mark when I said he was the 4th most overpaid on the roster before the season.  The Packers won the toss but decided to defer.  That was a curious decision because the Vikings scored 6 times when they received the ball to open a game in 2012, 3rd highest in the NFL.

#3) I am an unabashed Woodson fan, I wear his jersey for every game so I thought it was great to have him back in the lineup with his new scary looking face mask.  I know Woodson's cap number for next season might mean I witnessed his last home game in Green Bay unless the Packers beat the 49ers and the Seahawks beat the Falcons to set-up a Packers/Seahawks NFC Championship Game in Green Bay.  That said, the Packers need to come up with a way to keep Woodson around for next season.  Sure Woodson is a step slower and is getting handsier in coverage than a horny 13-year old boy with a chance to touch his first boob, but with how well Woodson tackles and creates turnovers (2012 excluded), the Packers can ill afford to cut Woodson.

#4) The Packers dominated the Vikings in the first half amassing 239 total yards (197 passing and 42 rushing) to merely 97 total yards (91 rushing and 6 passing) to take a 17-3 lead thanks in large part to scoring on their last possession of the half.  If there was any doubt whether the Packers were going to win, they got the ball to start the second half and lead a methodical drive that was extended by the Vikings having too many people on the field for a Mason Crosby field goal attempt that ended in a Kuhntang (trademark Pat Leo) receiving touchdown to extend their lead to 24-3.  Kuhntang became the 5th player in NFL history (Earnest Byner, Emmitt Smith, Ricky Watters, and Thurman Thomas) to score a rushing and receiving touchdown in two playoff games.  The Packers perfectly executing the "Double-Up" (scoring in the last possession of the first half and first possession of the second half) put the game out of reach.  A 21 point deficit on the road is tough to overcome with less than two quarters of football to play, especially for a team without a quarterback that can actually complete passes down field.

#5) Speaking of Webb, he joined Roger Staubach (1972 Cowboys), Gary Danielson (1983 Lions), and Frank Reich (1992 Bills) as the only quarterbacks since 1950 to start a postseason game without starting a regular season game.  What made the Webb start even more remarkable is that he is the only one of those four not to at least throw a pass in the preceding regular season (took three snaps: two hand-offs and a kneel down).  Joe Webb is clearly an athletic guy but he struggles throwing the ball, which is a deal breaker when you play quarterback.  Usually when the starting quarterback struggles, fans want to see the backup quarterback play.  Oddly with how well Ponder played towards the end of the season, Vikings fans were finally clamoring for Ponder instead of Webb.  To be fair, part of the reason Webb struggled was the presence of Clay Matthews who got a strip sack in the first half and a strip sack in the second half.  In the defense of Webb, even if Ponder was healthy and played his best, I am not sure the Vikings would have won anyhow.

#6) Sad to see wide receiver Donald Driver as a healthy scratch in a home playoff game since rookie linebacker Terrell Manning was needed to play special teams.  The Packers have an embarrassment of riches at wide receiver and tight end now but that could change this off-season with the likely departure of Driver, Jennings, and possibly Finley.  Cheesehead Chick wears a #80 jersey, which will sadly be assigned to another receiver as early as next year since this looks like Driver's last season as a player in Green Bay.  I wish the Packers would retire #80 as a joint James Lofton and Donald Driver jersey.  The Green Bay Packer Wide Receiver Mount Rushmore is currently Driver, Don Hudson, Lofton, and Sterling Sharpe.  If there is a way to simultaneously honor two of those four guys by joint retiring #80, I am totally on board.  The Packers have the option to do that with #36 as a joint LeRoy Butler and Nick Collins jersey as well.  Trust me, I know both will never happen, but something fun to think about.

#7) After gashing the Packers for 409 yards on 55 carries and 2 touchdowns in their two previous meetings, Adrian Peterson had the quietest 99 rushing yards in NFL playoff history.  The only other running back that the Packers gave up more than 100 yards rushing to this season was Week 1 to Frank Gore of the San Francisco 49ers.  If I had an MVP vote, there is no question that I would vote for Peterson over Peyton Manning.  I have so much respect for Peterson that he is my favorite non-Packer in the NFL.  In fact I admire what Peterson does so much that I would trade him straight up for any player on the roster besides Rodgers, Matthews, and Raji.  I am not sure the Vikings would trade Peterson for anyone on the Packers' roster besides Rodgers.

#8) Head coach Mike McCarthy is making his 5th playoff appearance in 7 seasons.  With a win over the Vikings, McCarthy improved his playoff record to 6-3.  My biggest gripe with McCarthy is his in-game adjustments.  There is no doubt that McCarthy has an innovative passing offense that already resulted in winning one Super Bowl, but let's not forget that he's had Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers as his quarterbacks the last seven season.  Part of the blame might be on general manager Ted Thompson but if the Packers aren't throwing the ball well, they can't run the ball.  Although running back DuJuan Harris has given the Packers a 2010 James Starks-esque spark towards the end of the season, McCarthy refuses to commit to the run, which has already hurt the Packers twice in the playoffs against the Giants and could be problematic next week against the 49ers.

#9) Hard to believe it took eight seasons (drafted by Packers on April 23, 2005 to January 5, 2013) for Aaron Rodgers to get his first home playoff win.  Rodgers has the highest all-time regular season passer rating (104.9 ahead of Steve Young @ 96.8 and Tom Brady @ 96.6), post-season passer rating (105.5 ahead of Bart Starr @ 104.8 and Drew Brees @ 104.2), a Super Bowl Ring, a Super Bowl MVP, and a league MVP that all happened before ever winning a home playoff game.  The Packers missed the playoffs in Rodgers's first season as the starting quarterback in 2008, lost @ Arizona in 2009, won the Super Bowl XLV in 2010 (won @ Philadelphia, @ Atlanta, @ Chicago, and @ Dallas beat the Steelers), lost in Green Bay to the Giants in 2011, and beat the Vikings in Green Bay so Rodgers is now 4-1 on the road and 1-1 at home in the playoffs.  I have a hard time believing that Rodgers finishes with less than a touchdown of home playoff wins for his career, but I would never have guessed it would take this long to notch his first.

#10) I can't say enough about Sug and the Aloft Green Bay.  Getting tickets actually wasn't all that cost prohibitive, we payed slightly over face value to have great seats.  Since it was a 7 pm kickoff, getting hotel accommodations was the bigger issue.  Sug stepped up in a big way using Starwood reward points to book us rooms.  When we got back to the hotel I asked the front desk what time the pool was open until.  I thought they would give the usual answer of 10 pm but was shocked when they said it is open 24 hours. Talk about a novel idea.  I get the potential liability of keeping the pool open 24 hours but there is really no better way to celebrate a playoff win than drinking beers in the hot tub.  One final kudos to Aloft Green Bay, a staff member checked in on us around 3 am.  Despite us goofing around and openly sucking down beers, he gave us no heat whatsoever.

Next up, the Packers travel to San Francisco for a Divisional Round match-up against the 49ers.  The Packers are 4-1 in playoff games played at Candlestick Park, possibly the most outdated stadium in the NFL.  Their only loss was the missed Jerry Rice fumble game aka the T.O. "Crying Catch" game.  Let's hope the Packers can avenge their embarrassing loss to the 49ers in Green Bay to start the 2012 regular season with a playoff win in San Francisco.

2012 Green Bay Packers - Most Overpaid and Most Underpaid

MLB and NBA franchises can turnaround in the blink of an eye with one big free agent acquisition, but that rarely works in the NFL.  Thus Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson rarely signs free agents unless they are undrafted rookie free agents so the Packers thankfully do not have too many horrible contracts on the books.

As of today, the Packers are $11.6 million below the $128.5 million salary cap for the 2012 season but that only accounts for the 51 most expensive players on the current roster.  That cap number will go down a fair amount when you add in everyone on the 53-man roster, injured reserve, the practice squad, injury settlements, and other dead cap charges.

Let's deal with the worst contracts before we move onto the best contracts:

#5) Charles Woodson (CB, $11.56 million) - Since Woodson carries the highest cap number of any Packer in 2012, he made the list.  Don't get me wrong, Woodson is a very versatile defensive player but he accounts for 9% of the salary cap so since Woodson doesn't play quarterback there is almost no way that accounting for such a big percentage of the team salary cap is ever going to be good business.  Trust me, it was hard to put Woodson on this list, especially since I wear a kid's XL Woodson jersey for every Packer game.

#4) James Jones (WR, $3.1 million) - If Jones had slightly better hands he would be making twice as much from another NFL franchise but since he has shaky hands, Jones signed what looked like a club friendly three-year, $9.4 million contract that is not looking so club friendly right now.  In 2013 the Packers are going to have to decide between Jones and Driver if they want to have enough left in the bank to resign impending free agent wide receiver Greg Jennings.

#3) Mason Crosby (K, $2.4 million) - This has more to do with being a place kicker in general than Crosby's actual performance.  There have been a number of studies that show field goal kicking performance is not consistent on a year-to-year basis, so paying a guy a couple million dollars for an inherently volatile rate of return doesn't feel right (sorry Sug and Sug's neighbor).

#2) John Kuhn (FB, $2.4 million) - Speaking of not feeling right, Kuhn is overpaid mostly because of positional value.  Although Kuhn occasionally lines up as a running back, he is really a fullback.  For a team that is pass happy, paying a running back a couple million dollars a year seems foolish so paying that much money to a fullback seems asinine.

#1) A.J. Hawk (MLB, $6.55 million) - Truth be told, Business HJ is the only truly ridiculous contract on the roster.  I am sure that the Business HJ is a nice guy but that doesn't mean he deserves to get paid almost $7 million to play the easiest position to fill in a 3-4 defense.  If the Packers did not lose middle linebacker Desmond Bishop for the season earlier in training camp, Business HJ would have either taken a drastic pay-cut to stay in Green Bay or would be looking for a new employer right now.

The hardest part of this post was winnowing down the list to just five for the best contracts.  There are almost a dozen contracts that I could characterize as honorable mention so let's just get to the five best contracts:

#5) Jordy Nelson (WR, $3.8 million) - When the Packers signed Nelson to a four-year, $14 million contract it looked like a fair deal.  Just a year later this contract looks like such a steal so the Packers might want to re-up Nelson before he prices himself out of Green Bay.

#4) Randall Cobb (WR, $729,414) - Usually including rookie contract is a cop-out but drafting a guy like Cobb at the end of the second round in the 2011 NFL Draft is another luxury pick in a long line of luxury picks (think Aaron Rodgers in 2005) made by Thompson that will pay huge dividends long-term for the Packers.  Although Cobb had some fumbling issues as a rookie, he still returned two kicks for touchdowns and gives the Packers a diverse weapon on offense that could soften the blow of losing Greg Jennings next year.

#3) D.J. Smith (MLB, $490,788) - Again I only include this rookie contract to illustrate a point.  In this instance it is to show that the Packers should not overpay for certain positions.  The Packers are paying Hawk more than 10 times what they are paying Smith.  There is a chance that Smith will be a flop in 2012 but that is softened by the fact that they are only paying him $500,000 while they are forced paying Hawk $6.55 million in 2012 because he is now a vested veteran on the roster.

#2) Clay Matthews (OLB, $1.98 million) - What a difference being the 9th pick (Raji) v. the 26th pick (Claymaker) in the 2009 NFL Draft.  This year Raji is scheduled to make $5.5 million while Matthews will earn a little less than $2 million that comparison is purely academic now though because those contracts are a thing of the past because they were signed under the old CBA.  Matthews will sign a much bigger second contract with the Packers than Raji so the Packers might as well enjoy underpaying Claymaker now since they are going to sign him to one of the largest contracts in NFL history in the next 18 months.

#1) Aaron Rodgers (QB, $9 million) - Before Rodgers completed a full season as a starter the Packers signed him to a six-year, $65 million contract with $20 million guaranteed.  Despite being one of the richest contracts ever signed in franchise history, it is also going to go down as one of the most cost effective of all-time because his next contract will probably be for the same length but twice the dollar amounts.

A special thanks to Spotrac, which helped me put together my most accurate "overpaid/underpaid" post yet.

Check back Sunday for my initial rankings of the entire 53-man roster for the 2012 Green Bay Packers.

2012 Free Agent Shopping Guide for Ted Thompson

The Green Bay Packers follow a similar blueprint for other successful NFL franchise by building through the draft and sitting on the sidelines for free agency. This is mostly academic because my shopping guides have been ignored in the past. It wouldn't be that fun if I just posted the last sentence and said check back for my draft coverage in a month though so I am going to push on.

The Packers are set at a number of positions (QB, WR, TE, T, and MLB) so I am going to focus my advice for Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson on other positions. Trust me, I know the chances of Thompson signing any of the players below are equal to the chance I have of leveraging this blog into a job running a professional sports team but I still hope you enjoy my 2012 Free Agent Shopping Guide for Ted Thompson:

#25 - Terrell Thomas (CB, 6'0", 191 lbs, 27 years old): There is .0001% chance that Thompson signs a borderline starter that is coming off a serious injury. The only reason I added Thomas to the list is that he might bring some of the secrets for why the Giants have dominated the Packers in the playoffs at Lambeau Field.

#24 - Nick Hardwick (C, 6'4", 305 lbs, 30 years old): Since Thompson didn't follow my advice to sign Wells there is going to be a bunch of centers on this list. Hardwick is an upper echelon center in the NFL but his age hurts his case. If Hardwick were a few years younger he would have already signed a lucrative extension with the Chargers though.

#23 - Mark Anderson (DE/OLB, 6'4", 255 lbs, 28 years old): Last year Anderson had a career renaissance as a pass rusher for the New England Patriots. After an impressive rookie season in 2006 when he registered 12 sacks, who would have thought it would take till 2011 for Anderson to registered another double digit sack season. It's hard to tell whether Anderson is going to post a bunch of sacks every five years or whether he is turning into a legitimate pass rushing threat. As always I think Anderson is somewhere in between but clearly an upgrade at the outside linebacker spot opposite Claymaker.

#22 - Israel Idonije (DE, 6'6", 275 lbs, 31 years old): This marks two former Bears in a row. It pains me to talk up one, let alone two former Bears but either Anderson or Idonije would clearly be an upgrade for the Packers.

#21 - Matt Birk (C, 6'4", 310 lbs, 35 years old): Despite being a former Viking (before playing for the Ravens) and being old, I am very happy to put Birk on the list because he is the current recipient of the Walter Payton Man of the Year Award. After hearing Birk's acceptance speech, I blocked out that Birk is 35 years old. Don't get me wrong, I would much rather have Wells on the roster than Birk in 2012 but if Wells leaves via free agency then Birk would be a fine stop gap starer for the Packers in 2012.

#20 - Andre Carter (DE/OLB, 6'4", 255 lbs, 32 years old): Much like Anderson, Carter had a career renaissance with the New England Patriots in 2011. If Thompson didn't want to keep Cullen Jenkins last year the odds of him signing Carter are slim but much like Birk, signing Carter for one year seems worth it to me.

#19 - Samson Satele (C, 6'3", 300 lbs, 27 years old): I know I am starting to sound like a broken record but if the Packers are going to let Wells leave via free agency then adding a guy like Satele would be a younger, more cost-effective version of Wells. Let me be clear, I would rather have Wells than Satele in 2012 but I am not sure if that is the case in 2014.

#18 - Manny Lawson (OLB, 6'5", 240 lbs, 27 years old): Thanks to playing Madden with my buddy Sug I have a Madden Crush on Lawson. Although Lawson's purported skills according to Madden have rarely been backed-up on the field, I am still a huge Lawson supporter.

#17 - Jeremy Mincey (DE, 6'3", 270 lbs, 28 years old): Since the Packers let Aaron Kampman leave via free agency to sign with the Jaguars, may be its time to return the favor. Unfortunately if the Jags are returning the exact favor they got when they signed Kampman then Mincey would struggle through a handful of injury riddle seasons. Even I am getting confused now, let's just move on.

#16 - Aubrayo Franklin (DT, 6'1", 317 lbs, 31 years old) & Shaun Rogers (DT, 6' 4", 350 lbs, 32 years old): Let's call this the Old Man Bounty Special. I would be downright shocked if Thompson considered either of these older defensive tackles but they both could be a decent upgrade from Howard Green at a slightly higher price.

#15 - Reggie Nelson (S, 5'11", 206 lbs, 28 years old): When the Packers took Justin Harrell 16th in the 2007 NFL Draft I had a huge draft crush on Darrelle Revis and Reggie Nelson. Revis went before the Packers picked and Nelson turned out to be better than Harrell but not the stud safety I thought he would be. I know that doesn't sound like glowing praise for Nelson but the Packers could use a guy like Nelson with the uncertainty surrounding the safety position.

#14 - Luis Castillo (DE/DT, 6'3", 290 lbs, 28 years old): Injury problems make this a long-shot at best but when healthy, Castillo is one of the better combo 3-4 defensive lineman in the entire NFL. Please re-read that sentence. Yes, Castillo is injury prone but with the lack of quality depth the Packers have along the defensive line he seems like the perfect guy to take a risk on.

#13 - Jarret Johnson (OLB, 6'3", 260 lbs, 30 years old): Might be overvalued because he played on the impressive Baltimore Ravens defense but any legitimate presence opposite Claymaker at outside linebacker is poised for a big year.

#12 - Kendall Langford (DE, 6'6", 295 lbs, 26 years old): Miami is moving from a 3-4 to a 4-3 so since Langford is a perfect fit at defensive end in a 3-4, the Packers should get on the horn ASAP because Lanford will be a hot commodity.

#11 - Red Bryant (DT, 6'4", 323 lbs, 27 years old): After being a part-time player for his first three years in Seattle, Bryant appeared in every game last season. Although Bryant has never put up a ton of stats but he has a big body that can plug up the middle of the defensive line.

#10 - Chris Myers (C, 6'4", 289 lbs, 30 years old): Thompson reportedly already kicked the tires on Myers despite the fact the he is still under contract with the Texans till March 13th. Much like all the other centers mentioned so far, I would rather the Packers just resign Wells but with only a few days left before free agency it looks like both sides are too far apart so Meyers would be a taller version of Wells with a ton of experience anchoring a zone-blocking offensive line so he is arguably the next best option besides Wells.

#9 - Jason Jones (DE/DT, 6'5", 276 lbs, 25 years old): Although Jones never put up huge stats, he looks like a big combo defensive lineman that is poised for a huge breakout. The odds are that Jones stays in Seattle with former Green Bay Packer front office member John Schneider but if there is any chance the Packers can prying Jones out of Seattle, they should do everything in their power to sign Jones.

#8 - LaRon Landry (S, 6'0", 220 lbs, 27 years old): Call this the Expensive Nick Collins Insurance Policy. Landry is dealing with his own injury problems but they are not of the career threatening variety that Collins is facing. If Collins is healthy, the Packers would be set at safety with Burnett, Collins, Jennings, and Peprah. If Collins is forced to retire because of a neck injury then "should Woodson move to safety" speculation would kick into high gear. All of that would be muted if the Packers added a guy like Landry to the roster.

#7 - Paul Soliai (DT, 6'4", 355 lbs, 28 years old): 6'4", 355 lbs. After foolishly letting Cullen Jenkins leave via free agency, making a run at Soliai would give Thompson a mulligan on that poor decision. Add in that Soliai is only 28 and Thompson would not be overpaying for an older guy.

#6 - Michael Bush (RB, 6'1", 245 lbs, 27 years old): With how little the Packers run the ball, adding a potentially expensive free agent running back seems silly but Bush is just the big, punishing running back the Packers need to add to the young three headed running back monster of Alex Green, Brandon Saine, and James Starks.

#5 - Cortland Finnegan (CB, 5'10", 188 lbs, 28 years old): Will never be mentioned in the same breath as Revis but signing Finnegan would give the Packers a ton of options in the secondary. If Nick Collins is forced to retire, adding Finnegan would allow the Packers to move Woodson to safety. If Collins returns healthy, Finnegan would lock down one side of the field while allowing Sam Shields to mature as the 4th cornerback instead of having to play almost every snap as the 3rd cornerback since the Packers play Nickel on roughly 2/3rds of their defensive snaps.

#4 - Kamerion Wimbley (OLB, 6'4", 255 lbs, 28 years old): Although Wimbley is technically still a member of the Oakland Raiders, former Packer front office member Reggie McKenzie has been cleaning house since he took over as general manager. Wimbley has a huge cap number for 2012 so he looks like the next potential salary cap casualty in Oakland. Much like Lawson discussed above I have had a huge outside linebacker crush on Wimbley for years because of his outlandish Madden ratings (speed, agility, acceleration, etc). In fact, if the Packers sign Wimbley I promise to buy a Wimbley jersey (kids XL as always) once Nike releases their new jerseys.

#3 - Brandon Carr (CB, 6'0", 207 lbs, 25 years old): As I've said many times, the odds of Thompson signing any free agents is slim but I view Carr as the best potential free agent not named Carl Nicks or Mario Williams so landing Carr would force Thompson to break the bank. Carr's potential former employer (Kansas City Chiefs) have a ton of cap space so if they let Carr walk without trying to re-sign him that is a bit of a red flag, especially since the Chiefs are run by a well respected general manger (Scott Pioli).

#2 - Carl Nicks (G, 6'5", 343 lbs, 27 years old): In the early 2000's the left tackle became the new sexy position. With the influx of dominate defensive tackles (i.e. Ngata and Suh), the need for bigger guards has become the new sexy position. The Packers seem set at guard with T.J. Lang and Josh Sitton but Sitton regressed last year after signing an extension and Lang is set to become a free agent after the season. Nicks is a very large man but still very agile for his size, which makes him the perfect antidote to dominate defensive tackles. Add in that Nicks is only 27-years old and the Packers would not be paying an over the hill guard for past performance, they would be adding a building block to their roster for the next five to seven years. If the Packers do in fact lose Scott Wells to free agency, moving Lang to center and slotting Nicks at left guard makes a ton of sense to me.

#1 - Mario Williams (DE/OLB, 6'6", 283 lbs, 27 years old): Most people argue that Super Mario's best position is at defensive end in a 4-3 as opposed to outside linebacker in a 3-4 but since the Packers play mostly Nickel anyhow the versatility of Super Mario would be utilized at both defensive end and rush outside linebacker. The only reservation most teams are having is that Super Mario is recovering from a season ending torn pectoral injury. In a weird way I actually look at the injury as a positive because if Super Mario played an entire season as a rush outside linebacker in the new 3-4 defense installed by Wade Phillips last year for the Texans, there is no way he would be a free agent. Super Mario has 53 sacks and is only 27-years old so he has a few more years of improving until he starts to decline in his early 30's. Add in that Claymaker was double teamed on almost every play last year and signing Super Mario would have such a positive waterfall effect on the entire defense. There is a 5% chance that signing Super Mario turns into Joe Johnson 2.0 while there is a 95% chance that signing Super Mario tuns into Reggie White/Charles Woodson 2.0 so open the check book TT.

If any of the players mentioned above actually play for the 2012 Green Bay Packers I would be absolutely shocked but we can always hope.

Two Packers make ESPN's NFL Any Era Team

ESPN released their NFL Any Era Team, which is their most recent scheme to make something out of nothing. Here is ESPN's description of the NFL Any Era Team: "ESPN.com and ESPN The Magazine sought a list of the 20 current players who 20 Hall of Famers (and one Hall of Fame writer) believe could play in any era of the NFL." Not the most scientific approach by the folks at ESPN.

ESPN comes up with borderline ridiculous ideas like the NFL Any Era Team and rides them into the ground by having their personalities talk and write about them across all of their platforms for as long as possible.

I guess I am perpetuating ESPN's craziness by writing about it but since two Green Bay Packers ended up on the list it is at least worth mentioning, especially since a bunch of Packers are playing in the Pro Bowl today instead of preparing for the Super Bowl. The two Green Bay Packers that made the list are: Aaron Rodgers (ranked 9th) and Charles Woodson (ranked 4th).

I am fine with both of the selections, especially since HGH would not be readily available in any era for Clay Matthews...kidding (sort of) and with the relaxed rules for receivers I am not positive Greg Jennings would be as explosive in any era. It makes senses that Charles Woodson finished in front of Rodgers although I would bet there are a bunch of guys behind both that are salty.

Patriots fans have to be pissed that Tom Brady was ranked #11 while Rodgers was ranked #9. Add in that Ben Roethlisberger was ranked #3 and luckily Patriots fans can look forward to Super Bowl XLVI instead of worrying about these stupid lists.

Speaking of Super Bowl XLVI, it is being played in Indianapolis this year where Colts fans are about to have an ugly divorce with their franchise quarterback Peyton Manning. I guess that means the least of their worries is that Manning was ranked #20 while Lefty Jesus aka Tim Tebow was ranked #19.

I already gave this ridiculous list more coverage than it deserves, you are welcome to seek out the whole list and complain if you like. If possible, enjoy the Pro Bowl since it will be the last time you will see anyone wearing Green and Gold on an NFL field for at least six months.

Check back over the next few weeks for a bunch of Packers coverage as I put the final touches on the 2011 season and look forward to the 2012 season.

Midseason Rankings of 2010 Green Bay Packers

The 2010 Green Bay Packers have suffered a ton of serious injuries so far this season, which has forced them to place 11 players on injured reserve after only 9 games. Here is a list of players placed on injured reserve between opening day and today, along with my initial ranking (53 players are on the roster) for each of them:
#46 - Justin Harrell (DE)
#43 - Derrick Martin (S)
#33 - Brady Poppinga (OLB)
#24 - Mike Neal (DE)
#23 - Morgan Burnett (S)
#18 - Brad Jones (OLB)
#17 - Mark Tauscher (T)
#9 - Nick Barnett (MLB)
#7 - Ryan Grant (RB)
#5 - Jermichael Finley (TE)

If you look back at my initial rankings of the 2010 Green Bay Packers opening day roster, a number of rankings have changed. Some players have stepped up, while others continue to wallow on the bench.

Based on losing all of the players above for the season, Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson has had to add 10 new faces to the 53-man roster between the start of the season and today. In parenthesis is my opening day ranking for each player. You will notice that 10 guys have a ranking of NR because they have been added to the roster in place of the aforementioned 10 players placed on injured reserve. Without further ado, here is the list:

#53 (53) - Nick McDonald (G):
Why not bring in a dedicated return man instead of subjecting Jordy Nelson, Tramon Williams, and Sam Shields to injury? McDonald has been inactive for every game this season, which is why I am 100% convinced that the Packers would be better off with a dedicated return man than McDonald. McDonald may be good down the road, but the Packers need a dynamic return man in 2010 much more than a potential starting guard in 2012. Remember the impact that Desmond Howard had in helping the Packers win Super Bowl XXXI?

#52 (NR) - James Starks (RB):
Starks is a big back that the coaches have been impressed with, but he has been injured for over two years. As a result, Starks has not played in a competitive football game since January of 2009. Look for the Packers to slowly incorporate Starks into the offense, which will be helpful since the Packers have been thin at running back since losing starting running back Ryan Grant for the season in week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

#51 (NR) - Spencer Havner (TE):
After getting cut at the end of training camp, Havner was picked up and subsequently cut by the Lions...ouch. With the loss of Finley, the Packers brought Havner back because no one has stepped up in place of Finley. Will Havner be the answer? Probably not, but Havner gets the Packers back to having 4 tight ends on the roster again. If Havner can stay healthy he will end up in the 30's for the final rankings, but that is a big if.

#50 (NR) - Diyral Briggs (OLB):
Biggs has only been active against the Cowboys for the Packers this year. Briggs looks to be mostly a special teams player. The Packers are in trouble if Briggs is getting regular snaps on defense in a close game as well.

#49 (NR) - Erik Walden (OLB):
Walden was active against the Jets and Cowboys. Walden looks to be just slightly better than Briggs, but much like Briggs, the Packers are in trouble if Walden gets regular snaps on defense in a close game.

#48 (NR) - Matt Wilhelm (MLB):
Thompson normally does not add a veteran like Wilhelm during the season. Instead Thompson prefers to add young players like Briggs and Walden. With all the injuries the Packers have suffered at linebacker this year, Wilhelm is a veteran middle linebacker that the Packers need to not only play but also provide veteran knowledge and leadership for the young Packers defense.

#47 (50) - Quinn Johnson (FB):
With all the talent on the Packers roster going into the 2010 campaign, Johnson looked like one of the first guys that would get cut when the Packers had to add players. Fortunately for Johnson, injuries have forced the Packers to add players at other positions. Whether the Packers suffered injuries or not this year, carrying 3 fullbacks is still a joke.

#46 (44) - Marshall Newhouse (T):
With offensive tackle Mark Tauscher (ranked #17 at the start of the season) lost for the season to a shoulder injury, Newhouse might be forced into action if the Packers suffer another injury along the offensive line. Newhouse has long arms, which makes him an ideal candidate to play left tackle down the road.

#45 (NR) - Atari Bigby (S):
After missing most of the off-season because of a contract dispute, Bigby reported to training camp with an injured ankle. As a result, the Packers had to place Bigby on the physically unable to perform list so he has only appeared in one game for the Packers this year. If things continue this way, 2010 is looking like a lost season for Bigby.

#44 (NR) - Anthony Smith (S):
The Packers sent the Jacksonville Jaguars a conditional 7th round pick to re-acquire Smith this year. It still boggles my mind why the Packers cut Smith before the 2009 season. Smith looks to be mostly a special teams player that might see some action at safety if the Packers suffer yet another injury.

#43 (51) - Brett Swain (WR):
With Donald Driver hobbled, Swain is getting more snaps on offense than expected in 2010. The Packers continue to keep Swain on the roster despite better wide receivers being on the free agent market. It must be Swain's play of special teams, because he has shown little as a wide receiver to justify his place on the roster.

#42 (NR) - Dimitri Nance (RB): the Packers signed Nance off the Atlanta Falcons practice squad. People complain about the Packers failure to trade for Marshawn Lynch or Jerome Harrison, but it was the Packers failure to add a guy like Ryan Torain (current Washington Redskin running back) that really hurts. Torain was a free agent when the Packers signed Nance so they could have gotten Torain for nothing. Nance might be good, but his lack of carries despite being on the roster for 8 games is telling.

#41 (37) - Brandon Underwood (CB):
Going into training camp Underwood looked like the odds on favorite to hold the nickel cornerback job (3rd on the depth chart). A little more than halfway through the season the Packers have him no higher than 5th on the cornerback depth. No one besides Mike McCarthy and Ted Thompson know whether it is because of the cloud surrounding his off the field issues or his play.

#40 (48) - Pat Lee (CB):
Lee showed some promise returning kickoffs, but as usual, got hurt. I feel for Lee on personal level but as a professional he needs to be on the field more often. If not, it is time to cut Lee in the uncapped year and move on without him.

#39 (NR) - Howard Green (DT):
When the Packers claimed Green off waivers from the Jets before their match-up with the Jets, it was just what the doctor ordered. The Packers sorely needed a big body to add along the defensive line. Green was one of the keys to the Packers beating the Jets. Get out your “Grave Digger” shovels because Green looks like the 2010 version of Gilbert Brown.

#38 (47) - Tom Crabtree (TE):
With the injury to Jermichael Finely, the tight end position went from a position of strength to a pedestrian group of guys. Crabtree blocks well but it is questionable whether Crabtree will become a receiving threat in the second half of the season.

#37 (45) - Jarrett Bush (S):
I might be wrong on Bush. Initially I thought it was a waste of a roster spot to keep Bush, but he has proven to be a consistent player on special teams. Bush has cut down on penalties and justified Thompson’s decision to keep him on the 53-man roster.

#36 (NR) - Jarius Wynn (DE):
After getting cut at the end of training camp, Wynn was on the street until the Packers re-signed him following the inevitable Justin Harrell season ending injury. Wynn was the 182nd pick in the 2009 NFL Draft and has sadly given the Packers more than Harrell, the 16th pick in the 2007 NFL Draft.

#35 (35) - Jason Spitz (G/C):
Going into the season, Spitz was the #1 back up at left guard, center, and right guard. Fortunately with all the injuries the Packers have suffered on both sides of the ball, one of the only places they have been healthy all season is the three interior offensive line positions.

#34 (31) - T.J. Lang (G):
Apparently Lang is not fully healthy yet because the Packers were working rookie first round draft pick Bryan Bulaga at left tackle and left guard. When starting right tackle went down, the Packers went with Bulaga instead of Lang. Lang still looks to have promise, but he will have to prove that 2009 was not a one-year flash in the pan.

#33 (40) - Donald Lee (TE):
By all accounts, Lee is a nice guy off the field but he still doesn't do enough for me on the field. Look for the newly acquired Havner to take away snaps from Lee when the Packers are looking to pass.

#32 (52) - C.J. Wilson (DE):
Wilson looked too small to play defensive end in the 3-4 and too slow to play outside linebacker. As a result, Wilson did not look like a match for the 3-4 defense. Fortunately, Wilson has put in the hard work to prove all the critics wrong and play well as a back up at defensive end in the 3-4.

#31 (49) - Andrew Quarless (TE):
This is based on potential more than production, because Quarless has yet to make a clean catch the entire season. His only touchdown "catch" stood because Minnesota Vikings head coach Brad Childress failed to challenge the play. Some people compared Quarless to Finley in terms of their physical skills. Half way through his rookie season, Quarless has shown that he has a ways to go to get compared to Finley.

#30 (26) - Matt Flynn (QB):
The Packers tried a fake against the Vikings with Flynn throwing a deep pass to Andrew Quarless that should have been caught but Quarless tripped. As a result, I stand by my assertion that Flynn should be the holder instead of Masthay. Again one of my favorite journalists Bob McGinn completely disagreed with me in his chat, but I stand by the assertion. Flynn got some garbage time snaps against the Cowboys. It is still hard to tell whether Flynn is an NFL caliber quarterback…hopefully the Packers will not have to find out in 2010.

#29 (38) - Korey Hall (FB):
Converted from linebacker to fullback. With the Packers lack of quality depth at linebacker, may be the Packers should give him a few reps at linebacker like they did with newly re-acquired tight end Spencer Havner.

#28 (42) - Brett Goode (LS):
Recently the Packer tried wide receiver James Jones and offensive lineman Josh Sitton at long snapper. I understand that long snapping is a very specific skill but I am still amazed that teams cannot teach their starting and back-up centers to be the long snapper. Not only would it save a roster spot, but it would also provide some continuity at the snapper position. That said, Goode has been almost perfect in 2010 so the Packers might not want to mess with a good thing.

#27 (20) - Brandon Chillar (MLB):
Injuries have kept Chillar on the sidelines for a good portion of the season. With Bishop thriving in a starting role at middle linebacker, the Packers might be forced to decide whether they part ways with Barnett, Hawk, or Chillar in favor of Bishop because keeping all of them would mean the Packers have way too much money invested in four middle linebackers when only two can play at a time.

#26 (34) - Tim Masthay (P):
After a rough start to the season, Masthay's performance on the road against the New York Jets in windy conditions might have saved his job for the season. Masthay doesn't look like a franchise punter yet, the real test will be how he performs in the nasty weather conditions at Lambeau Field in December.

#25 (27) - Mason Crosby (K):
Crosby has pulled a Dennis Green "being who we thought he was". Crosby missed a tough game winning field goal on the road against the Washington Redskins as time expired. If Crosby made the aforementioned kick, he probably would have been ranked 5 spots higher on the list. Unfortunately Crosby continues to be just an above average place kicker as opposed to an excellent kicker. Plus, Crosby still hasn't had to kick in horrible conditions yet, so December might be a make-or-break month for Crosby.

#24 (19) - Jordy Nelson (WR):
Nelson has not taken the opportunities presented by the absence of Donald Driver to thrive in the passing game. Nelson still does not look like a #1 or #2 wide receiver. The Packer tried Nelson on kickoff returns, but much like Kuhn being pedestrian at running back, Nelson is pedestrian at kickoff returns. After his horrible two fumble performance that almost lead to a home loss to the Lions for the first time since the Model T was invented, the Packers are trying Sam Shields on kickoff returns.

#23 (39) - Frank Zombo (OLB):
With Brad Jones and Brady Poppinga lost for the season, Zombo is the starting outside linebacker opposite of Claymaker for now. Zombo looks better than an undrafted free agent but still not talented enough to be a legitimate starting outside linebacker in the NFL yet. Zombo is the beneficiary of playing opposite Claymaker. With teams forced to double Claymaker, Zombo has been able to make some plays.

#22 (29) - John Kuhn (FB):
With starting running back Ryan Grant lost for the season, the Packers have used Kuhn as their back-up running back. Kuhn is a good blocker but does not possess the breakaway speed to break off a big run or the power to consistently pick-up a yard in short yardage situations.

#21 (28) - Brandon Jackson (RB):
Each week Jackson gets better and better in place of the injured Ryan Grant. Jackson has shown that he will never be an every down running back like Grant, but his confidence continues to increase each week. As long as Jackson holds onto the ball, the Packers will be fine for the rest of 2010 with Jackson as their starting running back.

#20 (41) - Charlie Peprah (S):
The most undervalued player on the initial rankings. Peprah has played well enough to keep Atari Bigby and Anthony Smith on the sidelines.

#19 (21) - James Jones (WR):
In a contract year, Jones was supposed to have a breakout year. Unfortunately Jones has had breakout games followed by horrible games. With Donald Driver hobbled by injury for most the season, Jones had a chance to take the #2 receiving job and run with it. Instead Jones has had huge fumbles (lead to a loss to the Bears on Monday Night Football) and games riddled with drops. Jones looks like a guy that thrives as a 3rd receiver because of the mismatch it creates as opposed to a 1st or 2nd receiver.

#18 (36) - Desmond Bishop (MLB):
In my initial rankings I talked about how Bishop was "Mr. August" because he always impresses in training camp but never plays in actual games. I went on to say the only way that Bishop would get on the field in 2010 was a catastrophic injury at middle linebacker. Well that catastrophic injury happened to starting middle linebacker Nick Barnett. Fortunately Bishop has stepped up and performed admirably in place of Barnett. Bishop has played so well that the Packers need to seriously consider extending Bishop's contract before the end of the season when he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

#17 (22) - Daryn Colledge (G):
With a little more than half the season in the books, Colledge has played above average at left guard. Unfortunately for Colledge, the Packers have quality back-ups (Spitz, Lang, Newhouse, and McDonald) on the offensive line so he still might not get the big extension he wants.

#16 (30) - Sam Shields (CB):
One of the biggest surprises and reasons why former starting cornerback Al Harris is playing for the Miami Dolphins instead of the Green Bay Packers. Coming out of the bye week the Packers are going to try Shields in the return game, something I have been calling for all season.

#15 (32) - A.J. Hawk (MLB):
Hawk has come up with a bunch of big plays this season. Although Hawk still has not justified being the #5 pick overall in the 2006 NFL Draft, he is making the Packers think twice about bringing him back in 2011 despite his $10 million salary.

#14 (25) - Bryan Bulaga (T):
With the loss of starting right tackle Mark Tauscher for the season, Bulaga has justified being a first round selection in less than one full NFL season. Whether Bulaga is the left tackle of the future in Green Bay is still up for debate. Bulaga has made a few rookie mistakes but has played well in place of Tauscher.

#13 (12) - Donald Driver (WR):
Out family hopes we didn't personally put the hex on Driver. Before the Packers/Vikings Sunday Night Game, Cheesehead Chick got her first NFL jersey...a Donald Driver jersey. I totally supported the decision because of Driver's back-story and consistent performance for the Packers over the last decade. Since then, Driver has not caught a ball…sorry DD.

#12 (15) - Scott Wells (C):
The anchor of the offensive line continues to play at a high level. Wells name has not been mentioned that often this year, which means he is doing what he is supposed to do along the offensive line.

#11 (8) - Ryan Pickett (DE):
Pickett has struggled with injuries this year. Despite Pickett being hobbled and losing up-and-coming rookie defensive lineman Mike Neal, the Packers have still been able to get a pass rush thanks to the emergence of C.J. Wilson and Jarius Wynn. That said, the Packers are much better with a healthy Pickett in the line-up

#10 (11) - Cullen Jenkins (DE):
Despite playing most of the season with a club on his hand, Jenkins has gotten the most consistent pass rush of any defensive lineman on the roster. Jenkins claims he would have had 5 more sacks without the club. That is up for debate, but what is not up for debate is that without Jenkins the Packers would be a 5-4 team, at best, as opposed to a 6-3 team.

#9 (14) - Chad Clifton (T):
When the Packers signed Clifton to a three-year contract in March, it looked like a one-year deal depending on how healthy he was at the end of the season. With Bulaga playing well at right tackle, Clifton has played even better at left tackle and deserves every chance to keep his job at left tackle in 2011 as long as he is healthy.

#8 (3) - Greg Jennings (WR):
The Packers have tried to get Jennings involved in the offense but his numbers are still down this year despite the Packers missing wide receiver Donald Driver and tight end Jermichael Finely. You would think with less people to throw the ball to, Jennings numbers might go up. In fact the exact opposite has happened. Defenses are keying on Jennings, which has lead to a down year for him so far. I expect the Packers to make some adjustments in the bye week and Jennings will have a big second half in 2010.

#7 (6) - Nick Collins (S):
Part of the reason that Charlie Peprah has looked so good filling in for injured rookie safety Morgan Burnett is Nick Collins. Safeties like Collins have so much range that they make the other players around them look better. Collins has made some spectacular plays (think of his interception of Favre on Sunday Night Football) this season. The only knock on Collins is that he dropped a few interceptions this year. Either way, Collins is carrying on the tradition of wearing jersey #36 well.

#6 (2) - Charles Woodson (CB):
As I have mentioned a few times before on the blog, I chart games for Football Outsiders. One of the things that I have to mark down when charting games for Football Outsiders is the defender targeted for each pass thrown. I have written “21-C.Woodson” much more than “38-T.Williams” this year. One theory is that Woodson covers the best receiver on the other team. Even if that is the case, Williams is shutting down his receiver more than Woodson this year. It is amazing that the NFL defensive player of the year is not the best player at his position on his own team the next year, but that shows just how well Tramon Williams is playing in 2010.

#5 (10) - Josh Sitton (G):
Sitton continues to impress and looks like the starting right guard in Green Bay for the next decade if the Packers are willing to pay Sitton. Sitton's combination of size, strength, and agility is rare at the guard position, so the Packers would be wise to extend Sitton.

#4 (16) - Tramon Williams (CB):
Despite being up-and-down in the preseason, Williams had been the best defensive back for the Packers in 2010. You read that correctly, Williams is playing better than safety Nick Collins and cornerback Charles Woodson. The Packers let former starting cornerback Al Harris go, in part, because of how well Williams has played in 2010. Williams is in a contract year so the Packers need to extend Williams soon or risk losing him to free agency in the off-season, which would be a catastrophic loss.

#3 (13) - B.J. Raji (NT):
Raji has been the playing time MVP of the defense in 2010. With all of the injuries the Packers have suffered along the defensive line, Raji has played the most snaps of any defensive lineman by a mile. Not only has Raji been healthy, but he has also played extremely well. There is no way that the Packers defense would be getting all the turnovers they are creating right now without Raji plugging up the middle so well.

#2 (1) - Aaron Rodgers (QB):
When Rodgers took over the starting job in 2008, some thought he forced the ball to wide receiver Greg Jennings. Last year Rodgers spread the ball around much better. Unfortunately this year Rodgers forced the ball into dynamic tight end Jermichael Finely much like he did with Jennings in 2008. When the Packers lost Finley for the season, Rodgers seemed to lose his rhythm with the offense. In the bye week, I hope the Packers took time to make sure everyone is incorporated in the offense so the second half can look more like the Packers/Cowboys game than the Packers/Redskins game.

#1 (4) - Clay Matthews (OLB):
I am not too sure if you have noticed lately, but I am calling Clay Matthews "Claymaker" on the blog because not only do I like the name but it succinctly describes how well he is playing. Claymaker is putting together quite an impressive resume in only a year and a half wearing the Green and Gold and quickly turning into the most dynamic defensive players in the NFL. Claymaker leads the NFL with 10.5 sacks this year, making him the only player in Packers' history to register 10 sacks in each of their first two seasons in the NFL. Claymaker was named NFC defensive player of the month for September. Claymaker also earned his 2nd defensive player of the week award this year and 3rd all-time. As a result, Claymaker joined Charles Woodson (4 times) and Reggie White (3 times) as the only Packers to be named NFC defensive player of the week at least 3 times. Something tells me Claymaker is going to break Chuck's record in short order. Let me leave you with something to ponder, 51 of the 53 NFL's most valuable players have been on the offensive side of the ball (two defensive players were: Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Alan Page in 1971 and New York Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor in 1986)…could Claymaker be the 3rd all-time in 2010?