Showing posts with label Greg Monroe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Greg Monroe. Show all posts

Friday, February 17, 2017

Building The 15 - (Another) Plea to Stand Pat at the 2017 NBA Trade Deadline

This is the 8th year (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016) that I've provided NBA Trade Deadline advice to Milwaukee Bucks (nominal) general manager John Hammond.  I used "(nominal)" because Jason Kidd's fingerprints are all over The 15 and the Bucks have their future GM in assistant GM Justin Zanik so while Hammond is still technically in charge, it is hard to determine whether he actually has final say on moves and I haven't even mentioned the trio of guys that bought the Bucks from Herb Kohl.

While the Bucks won their last three games going into the 2017 NBA All-Star break, they dropped seven of their last 11 games and literally limped into the All-Star break after Jabari Parker tore the same ACL for the second time in just three NBA seasons.  I'd like to think that my advice in this column would be the same if Parker were healthy but frankly it changes things slightly now that the Bucks have what looks like a reason to tank just once more before they open their new arena for the 2018-19 NBA season that I will forever refer to as The Beer Barrel.  I say what looks like a reason because the Bucks were struggling before Parker's injury but now they can semi-couch tanking as a result of losing Parker for 12 months.

The financial ramifications of Parker's serious knee injuries could be catastrophic for not only him but frankly the Bucks too.  After Parker missed most of his rookie season in the NBA due to tearing his left ACL in mid-December of 2014, he actually started his second season in the NBA healthy and put up pretty decent numbers given that he returned to the court in less than 12 months following a serious knee injury.  This season Parker's offensive game went to the next level averaging just a nick over 20 points a game while adding a three point shot to his offensive repertoire.  NBA players can sign extensions that start after their rookie contract following their third NBA season but given that Parker will miss more than half of his fourth NBA season recovering from a second tear to his left ACL, it will be hard for the Bucks to commit a max contract before next season because there is no way to know whether Parker will ever be the same player again.  I hate to be too fatalist about Parker's career given that he is still only 21 years old but midway through this season I thought there was a chance he would push for an All-Star appearance in the next couple seasons, now I (sadly) question whether he will ever make an All-Star team.

On a more positive note, the Bucks have two members of The 15 participating this weekend in some of the 2017 NBA All-Star Weekend festivities.  Rookie Malcom Brogdon aka Right Handed Michael Redd is playing in the NBA Rising Stars Game and The Greek Freak is participating in the NBA All-Star game to give the Bucks their first All-Star since the aforementioned Michael Redd played in the 2004 NBA All-Star Game in Los Angeles.

I will do my duty and post fake trades for Hammond/Kidd/Zanik/ownership but unless the Bucks are able to off-load another one of the crap contracts they signed this off-season, I would rather they just stand pat.  Realistically The Greek Freak is the only untouchable on The 15 but despite injury concerns for both, I would classify Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker as virtually untouchable so it would take a very special package to land Middleton or Parker.

As I've said many times in the past, I would hate to see the Bucks part with any future first round picks given that is really their only way of adding transcendent talent to The 15; see Freak, The Greek and Parker, Jabari.  I am even reticent to include a second round draft pick too because although the Bucks still have extra second round picks, given some of the crap contracts the Bucks currently have on The 15, I would much rather see them focus more on drafting and developing instead of overpaying on the free agent market.

NBA trades are mostly about shuffling around expensive contracts in hopes that a change of scenery turns one team's trash into another team's treasure, which is why I wrote an NBA General Manager Buyer's Remorse Day post a couple years ago.  With the 2017 NBA Trade Deadline (Thursday, February 23rd at 2:00 PM CST) rapidly approaching, here are my favorite somewhat plausible trades (least favorite to most favorite) that I put together for Hammond's review with an assist from ESPN's NBA Trade Machine that he could float to other general manager this weekend at the 2017 NBA All-Star Weekend in New Orleans:

#5) Bucks trade Jason Terry (G) to the Atlanta Hawks for a second round pick:
Terry recently said that he wants to play two more seasons in the NBA but not sure he will have that option.  Either way, this trade would bring things full circle for Terry by taking him back to where his NBA career started.  Not sure what Terry brings to the table at this point other than a strong locker room presence for a playoff bound team that might be able to occasionally give you a spark off the bench.  Of the five trades potential trades that I am going to float, I actually think this one has a realistic change of happening but barely registers on the sexy scale.  I see the Hawks looking to do something bigger than a deal like this to help their playoff push so I don't see this deal going down unless the Hawks strike out across the board with all other bigger deals and try to pull this one off right before the trade deadline.

#4)
Bucks trade Matthew Dellavedova (G) to the Indiana Pacers for Jeff Teague (G):
Whenever a team is trying to pander to their star that could leave town, they inevitably overpay; see James, LeBron's first rodeo in Cleveland.  Indiana Pacers small forward Paul George can opt-out of his contract at the end of next season and he has yet to commit to the Pacers long-term so word is that the Pacers are willing to overpay to keep George happy.  I've admired Teague for a long time and given that he is an expiring contract, the Pacers get a worse player but more cost certainty in Dellavedova.  I love this deal for the Bucks and hate it for the Pacers so that is why it is the first one floated because Pacers president Larry Bird would be foolish to make this deal.  Then again, desperate times sometimes call for desperate measures.

#3) Bucks trade John Henson (PF/C) to the Phoenix Suns for Brandon Knight (PG):
I wanted to dangle Matthew Dellavedova instead of Henson but even though Knight has struggled this season so much that he is relegated to a reserve role, Dellavedova has had an even worse season so the Bucks need to part with a guy that seems to have a ton of promise but sadly doesn't deliver as much on the promise as much as he should.  I am talking about Henson but that last sentence describes Knight's tenure in Phoenix too so this seems like a perfect trade for both teams.  In hindsight there is no question that Hammond should have taken the Top 5 protected pick instead of MCW when he traded Knight to the Suns.  I see Henson and Knight as slightly distressed assets.  Given that the NBA has a glut of big-men and unless you can shoot a three you are becoming a dinosaur in the league, I would rather see the Bucks take a flier on Knight regaining his 2013 through 2015 form than hold onto Henson.

#2) Bucks trade Greg Monroe (C) and Jason Terry (G) to the Orlando Magic for Nikola Vucevic (C) and Mario Hezonja (SG):
I am obligated to float at least one Greg Monroe trade.  Initially I thought about Monroe to the Denver Nuggets for power forward Kenneth Faried.  I've long been a fan of the Manimal and it seems like the Nuggets are always looking to move him but don't think the potential of only a few months of Monroe is enough for Manimal even though Monroe has had a nice offensive resurgence this season after a disappointing first season in Milwaukee.  There are very few subpar GM's left in the NBA but thankfully Rob Hennigan is one of them and still in charge of the Magic.  Sure the Magic got the better end of the J.J. Redick/Tobias Harris deal but this is the same guy that in the last 12 months turned Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova, and Domantas Sabonis into a couple months of Serge Ibaka only to flip Ibaka to the Toronto Raptors for Terrence Ross and a late first round pick in the 2017 NBA Draft.  Pretty easy to say you'd rather have Oladipo/Sabonis than Ross/2017 late first rounder.  While Vucevic seems like the headliner of the deal for the Bucks given that he is a quality front court player, I actually still think Hezonja is a superstar in the making despite struggling so far in his NBA career.  While Monroe has developed into a quality offense first guy to bring off the bench at center, there is a chance that Hezonja develops into a starting shooting guard or worst case a heat check guy to bring off the bench in crunch time.  Given what I said earlier about the NBA having a glut of quality big guys and skewing towards shooting as many three as possible, I would much rather have an offense first shooting guard than an offense first center.

#1) Bucks trade Khris Middleton (SG/SF) and Jason Terry (PG/SG) to the Boston Celtics for Amir Johnson (C), Jaylen Brown (SF), and the Brooklyn Nets' 2018 first round pick:
I know this is going to make Celtics fans head explode because they always overvalue their guys but frankly the Celtics get more long-term cost certainty at the expensive of a couple super interesting lottery tickets in this deal, which is exactly what they need given all the potential flux that their roster is going to go through in the next 18 months.  Middleton is on a criminally team friendly NBA contract given that he is in the second year of a five-year, $70 million contract that actually pays him less each season starting next season.  The one caveat to that is Middleton owns a player option on the last season but if Middleton is playing so well that he is going to opt-out to sign a big money deal, better to have him plant some roots in Boston ahead of signing that extension.  While Middleton is not truly a superstar, he is a prototypical 3-and-D guy.  Besides having a Top 10 player on your team, the most valuable thing in the NBA right now is having as many 3-and-D guys as possible.  Speaking of 3-and-D guys, Brown is the wildcard.  Right now Brown is shooting 30% from three but take that with a grain of salt because he is a 20-year old NBA rookie.  Some thought the Celtics reached for Brown with the 3rd pick in the 2016 NBA Draft but there is a chance that he becomes one of the best defenders in the NBA in a couple seasons, which is the perfect guy to pair with The Greek Freak and Parker.  If Brown can develop a long-distance shot, the Celtics will be kicking themselves for trading him away but there is no guarantee that Brown can add that dimension to his game.  There is a chance that Tony Snell can give the Bucks 75% of Middleton's production at 75% of Middleton's price so that allows the Bucks to proactively push back their window of being a real Eastern Conference contender a season or two, which coincides perfectly with the opening of The Beer Barrel.  Finally, the Celtics have to cash in some of their draft picks because there are only 15 players allowed on NBA roster and it feels like they have 15 picks in the next three NBA Drafts.  Sure the 2018 Brooklyn Nets could be a Top 3 pick but a Middleton in the hand is definitely better than a Brown and a bird in the bush given that the Celtics are making a legitimate run at winning the Eastern conference this season.

If Hammond actually makes another move before the 2017 NBA Trade Deadline, which I am on records as hoping he doesn't, check back for full coverage in this space.  In the meantime, enjoy watching Right Handed Michael Redd and The Greek Freak in the 2017 NBA All-Star Weekend festivities in New Orleans.

Thursday, July 9, 2015

Building The 15 - The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly 1.0 for 2015-16 Off-Season

It has been quite a busy off-season for Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond.  Given the young, high-end talent on The 15, I actually thought Hammond would have a ho-hum off-season where he resigned restricted shoot guard/small forward Khris Middleton to a large contract, uses both of his draft picks in the 2015 NBA Draft, and chased big name free agents but only ended up with one or two lesser names.  Boy was I wrong.

All told, Hammond moved out $12.15 million in salaries for next season when he traded power forward Ersan Ilyasova ($7.9 million) to the Detroit Pistons for the non-guaranteed expiring contracts of small forward Caron Butler ($4.5 million) and small forward/power forward Shawne Williams ($1.3 million) and small forward/power forward Jared Dudley ($4.25 million) to the Washington Wizards for a future second round draft pick.  Unfortunately the Bucks added $6.6 million on the night of the 2015 NBA Draft when Hammond traded his 2015 2nd round pick (46th overall) and the L.A. Clippers lottery protected 2017 first round pick to the Toronto Raptors for point guard Greivis Vasquez.  All of that was done to give the Bucks enough salary cap space to try to chase a big-name free agent but Hammond really only saved $5.55 million in salary for next season given Vasquez's expensive salary.  Honestly, I would have just kept Dudley, Ilyasova, and the draft picks they moved for Vasquez instead of trading for Vasquez. The only draft pick the Bucks had in the 2015 NBA Draft was the 17th pick, which they used to draft freshman shooting guard Rashad Vaughn.

Although the Bucks have too many players on The 15 right now, they have six potential free agents after this season: two restricted in power forward/center John Henson and center Miles Plumlee along with four unrestricted in point guard Jared Bayless, shooting guard O.J. Mayo, center Zaza Pachulia, and point guard Greivis Vasquez.  As a result, the Bucks could really use those draft picks, especially if they used one of them on a Euro-draft-and-stash guy.  It seemed that the salary cap space created was going to be all for not given that the Bucks never lure big-name free agents so Hammond signed shooting guard/small forward Khris Middleton to a five-year, $70 million contract, which is the exact same contract that former Buck combo guard Brandon Knight signed with the Phoenix Suns.

If Hammond was being honest with himself he had to try but he always knew that he was never going to be able to lure power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, center Marc Gasol, center DeAndre Jordan, or center Brook Lopez.  With all of that long build-up out of the way, I hope that everyone is sitting down because the Bucks actually lured a big-name free agent when they signed former Detroit Pistons center Greg Monroe to a three-year, $50 million contract.

You can checkout my rankings of The 15 in the sidebar below and although I've now essentially covered every transaction that Hammond made so far this off-season, I still think it makes sense to categorize each of those six moves in The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.  So without further adu, here are my thoughts:

The Good
The Middleton and Monroe contracts mean the Bucks potentially committed ~$21 million a year to those two players (Middleton averages $14 million and Monroe averages $16.67 million) for the next three seasons.  I say potentially as I mentioned above because the third year of Monroe's contract is a player option.  According to a SI.com's Will Law's advanced metric named "Free Agent Quotient, Monroe was the 8th most attractive free agent this off-season and projects as a "Bona fide All-Star" while Middleton was the 23rd most attractive free agent and projects to be an "Above -average starter.  While Law's metric is interesting, if that is NOT easy to wrap your mind around then may be ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton's three-year projections will help determine how much value the Bucks Middleton and Monroe: Monroe is "worth" $69 million and Middleton is "worth" $62 million so the Bucks extracted ~$40 million of surplus value out of those deals given they are on the hook for $91 million for both for the next three seasons.

The 15
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF/PF)
2. Jabari Parker (SF/PF)
3. Greg Monroe (PF/C)
4. Khris Middleton (SG/SF)
5. John Henson (PF/C)
6. Michael Carter-Williams (PG)
7. O.J. Mayo (SG)
8. Rashad Vaughn (SG)
9. Greivis Vasquez (PG)
10. Damien Inglis (SF)
11. Tyler Ennis (PG)
12. Zaza Pachulia (C)
13. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG)
14. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF)
15. Miles Plumlee (C)
16. Jorge Gutierrez (PG)
17. Shawne Williams (SF/PF)
18. Caron Butler (SF)
If Monroe struggles, I am sure that he will opt-in to the third year of his contract to get paid much like fellow former Georgetown Hoya center Roy Hibbert did this off-season.  If Monroe thrives, I could see him opting out to sign a mega-extension with the Bucks or another NBA team given that he will only be 27 years old and the salary cap is projected to be skyrocket over the next two seasons since it is projected to be $67 million this season, $90 million in 2016-17, and $108 million in 2017-18.  As crazy as it sounds, Monroe could potentially double his salary on his next contract extension.  Either way, the Bucks were deemed a more attractive option by Monroe than the L.A. Lakers and New York Knicks, which makes complete on-the-court sense.  Even more interesting than "outbidding" the Lakers and Knicks is what a perfect fit Monroe seems to be for the Bucks given his ability to score down low and grab rebounds, which are two things the Bucks desperately needed last season.  Sure Monroe is NOT a great defender but he is a long, willing defender.  With Monroe in the fold the Bucks project to have an impressive starting five of MCW at point guard, Middleton at shooting guard, The Greek Freak at small forward, Jabari Parker at power forward, and Monroe at center.  If Parker and Monroe struggle too much defensively, I could see the Bucks giving John Henson minutes alongside Monroe because both guys are quality rebounders and each guy's strength (scoring for Monroe and defense for Henson) off-sets each of their weaknesses (defense for Monroe and offense for Henson).

Assuming last season was NOT an aberration, Middleton's salary could be very palatable despite the fact that he will earn $14 million a year given that he is the prototypical 3-and-D player, which seems to be the most important NBA player type right now outside of all-around superstar.  If Middleton suffers a serious injury, the Bucks and Middleton will have a very uncomfortable five-year marriage but I would be really surprised if Middleton's contract year push last year is the ceiling of his performance so as long as he stays healthy, the Bucks will NOT regret the move.  Plus if you look around at the other 3-and-D free agents that signed deals this off-season, they signed similar contracts to Middleton: DeMarre Carroll signed a four-year, $60 million deal with the Toronto Raptors and Tobias Harris signed a four-year, $64 million contract with the Orlando Magic.  If Middleton continues to shoot 40% or better from behind the three-point arc, I could actually see him averaging 20 points a game at least once over the next couple seasons if the Bucks get quality play out of The Greek Freak, Jabari Parker, and Monroe because that would make Middleton one of the most lethal fourth bananas in the NBA.  Given that the salary cap is scheduled to almost double by the 2017-18 NBA season, there is a chance that Middleton's contract looks like the Bucks got him for the mid-level exception by the third season.

Switching gears, the more I noodle on the Vaughn pick, the more I am open to the upside of the decision despite the fact that FiveThirtyEight has Vaughn ranked as the 23rd best player in the 2015 NBA Draft and Pelton has Vaughn ranked as the 48th best player in the 2015 NBA Draft based on projected wins above replacement for his first five years in the NBA.  Vaughn is a long, skilled shooter and one of the youngest players in the 2015 NBA Draft.  Worst case scenario, I see Vaughn becoming a heat-check guy off the bench for the Bucks by his second or third season in the NBA.  Best case scenario, the Bucks drafted Ray Allen 2.0.  I see Vaughn settling somewhere in between but on the off-chance he fulfills his potential upside by his second or third NBA season, he could be the 7th best player on The 15.

The Bad
The Ilyasova trade seems like the kind of deal that would be on the table at the NBA Trade Deadline, which is why I question the motives for why Hammond made the move before the NBA Draft.  What is even more puzzling to me is how Hammond was NOT even able to snag a future second round pick from the Pistons as a part of the deal.  This trade looks even worse given that the Bucks added salary just a few days later in the Vasquez trade.

The Dudley trade will be felt more off the court than on the court.  Sure Dudley is a versatile player given that he can guard essentially every position on the court beside point guard and super tall centers but Dudley's real value came via his positive locker room presence.  We are just 18 months removed from Gary Neal and Larry Sanders getting in a fight in the locker room.  That is the kind of thing that would never happen in a locker room that included Dudley.  With Dudley no longer around, the four guys set to become unrestricted free agents (Bayless, Mayo, Pachulia, and Vasquez) after this season will be expected to be the veteran voices in the locker room too, which will make for an interesting locker room dynamic.

The Ugly
I almost put the Dudley trade in this category but given that the Vasquez trade is possibly the worst trade of Hammond's tenure, I wanted to make sure that The Ugly is reserved solely for that horrible trade.  The Bucks traded away Ilyasova and Dudley in separate deals but I like both of those guys more than Vasquez.  More importantly, I hate small market teams like the Bucks giving away lottery tickets aka draft picks.  Even late first round picks are valuable commodities for NBA teams because if they can land a rotational player, it gives NBA teams a super cheap commodity.

If the Bucks kept the 46th pick, they could have landed a useful player for next season (Norman Powell, Dakari Johnson, or Tyler Harvey) or a Euro-draft-and-stash guy (Arturas Gudaitis, Marcus Eriksson, Satnam Singh Bhamara, Nikola Radicevic, Dimitrios Agravanis, or Luka Mitrovic).  If the Bucks kept the L.A. Clippers lottery protected 2017 first round pick, they again would have a chance to add another cost-effective commodity to The 15.

I continue to lobby Hammond to leave a few spots open on The 15 so that he can either sign non-guaranteed deals to undrafted free agents or bottom-feed the free agent market.  In terms of bottom feeding, if Hammond had spots on The 15, look at the some of the cost-effective player he could have added: three-year, $18 million contract the Memphis Grizzles signed with power forward Brandan Wright; two-year, $10 million contract the Toronto Raptors signed with power forward Bismack Biyombo; four-year, $16 million contract the New York Knicks signed with center Kyle O'Quinn as a part of a sign-and-trade with the Orlando Magic; or four-year, $33 million contract the Sacramento Kings signed with power forward/center Kosta Koufos.  The most earth shattering thing about two of the deals just discussed are that the Knicks and Kings actually made a prudent free agent move after questionable moves earlier in the off-season.

Finally, backup point guards are a dime a dozen.  The Bucks cut Nate Wolters last season to add power forward Kenyon Martin, I hated that move at the time and despise it now because Martin was tits on a bull for the Bucks and if Wolters was still on The 15, Hammond might NOT have traded for Vasquez.  Leaving Wolters aside, you can add guys like Vasquez via free agency for much less than $6 million a year.  Last year the Bucks did just that when they signed Jerryd Bayless to a two-year, $6 million deal.  I didn't love that signing but at least it did NOT cost the Bucks two draft picks.  This off-season, the aforementioned Gary Neal signed a one-year, $2.1 million contract with the Washington Wizards.  The Bayless and Neal deals are two of many that are much better allocation of salary cap space than Vasquez for $6 million.

Unless Hammond makes a trade, The 15 is essentially set for next season.  On paper I would say the Bucks are much better off on the top-end of The 15 now then they were at the start of the off-season but only time will tell whether that translates to on-court performance.  Our first look will be summer league.  All eyes will be on "rookie" small forward Damien Inglis (missed all of last season due to injury) and actual rookie Vaughn.

Monday, June 29, 2015

Building The 15 - 2015 Free Agent Shopping Guide for Hammond

Milwaukee Bucks general manager was active this off-season given that he already completed two trades.  I made no bones about it that I disliked the decision to trade small forward/power forward Ersan Ilyasova to the Detroit Pistons for expiring contracts and absolutely hated that Hammond traded two draft picks to the Toronto Raptors for backup point guard Greivis Vasquez.

The two trades seem to be inconsistent given that Hammond shipped out Ilyasova's $7.9 million salary for this season for non-guaranteed contracts to presumably give him enough cap space to try to lure in an expensive free agent but then Hammond swallowed up almost all of that cap space when he traded for Vasquez's bloated $6.6 million salary for next season.

Hammond drafted UNLV freshman shooting guard Rashad Vaughn with the 17th pick in the 2015 NBA Draft.  All told, assuming that Hammond resigns restricted free agent shooting guard/small forward Khris Middleton and that small forward/power forward Jared Dudley does NOT exercise his early termination option, Hammond will have 18 players under contract for the 2015-16 NBA season even though he only actually has 15 roster spots.

Here is how the depth chart currently shakes out:
- Point Guard: Michael Carter-Williams, Jerryd Bayless, Greivis Vasquez, Tyler Ennis, and Jorge Gutierrez
- Shooting Guard: Khris Middleton, O.J. Mayo, and Rashad Vaughn
- Small Forward: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damien Inglis, and Caron Butler
- Power Forward: Jabari Parker, Jared Dudley, Johnny O'Bryant III, and Shawne Williams
- Center: John Henson, Zaza Pachulia, and Miles Plumlee

Hammond has some wiggle room since at least three of the contracts (Gutierrez, Butler, and Williams) are NOT guaranteed but that also means that Hammond cannot sign more than one or possibly two free agents without trading away players.

Hammond has $12 million in salary cap space for the 2015-16 season but most, if NOT all of that, will be taken up Middleton if the Bucks are able to retain his services.  That means the Bucks will be left with almost no money to shop on the free agent market.  Hammond will most likely create $7 million in salary cap space by cutting Butler, Gutierrez, and Williams.

For better or worse even if Middleton does NOT resign with the Bucks they are all set at point guard, shooting guard, and small forward.  The same could be argued for power forward or center but there is a ton of potential turnover at those spots over the next couple season and those are the two positions of strength in free agency this off-season so the Bucks need to at least take a look.

At power forward there are some interesting expensive veterans: LaMarcus Aldridge, Tim Duncan, Kevin Love, Paul Milsap, and David West.  The same goes for center too: Omer Asik, Tyson Chandler, Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, Brook Lopez, Greg Monroe, and Amar'e Stoudemire.  There are some really enticing restricted free agent options at center too in Bismack Biyombo and Enes Kanter.

There are some more cost effective power forwards (e.g. Tyler Hansbrough and Brandan Wright) and centers (e.g. Cole Aldrich, Robin Lopez, and Greg Stiemsma) about to hit the free agent market but unless Hammond is considering signing Wright, this is NOT the season to make a move on guys like that given how precious roster spots on The 15 are for the 2015-16 season.  Hammond might beed to fill out The 15 with cost-effective backups next off-season given that the Bucks have two restricted free agents (Henson and Pumlee) and four unrestricted (Bayless, Mayo, Pachulia, and Vasquez).  Hammond should always try to balance the short-term and long-term needs of The 15, unfortunately this off-season he painted himself in a corner.

It would be easy to say that it makes sense to break the bank on a couple of sexy names listed above but a number of those free agents will NOT even consider Milwaukee (Aldridge, Duncan, Gasol, and Love) so that already narrows the field.  Of the those free agents that would realistically consider the Bucks, the three most intriguing are DeAndre Jordan, Brook Lopez, and Greg Monroe.  I am not sure if it is the pull of The Greek Freak and Parker but there are some quality players that publicly said they have the Bucks on the short list of teams that they are willing to meet with. Jordan is reportedly only meeting with four teams (Bucks, Clippers, Lakers, and Mavericks) and Monroe is reportedly only meeting with five teams (Bucks, Celtics, Lakers, Knicks, and Trailblazers).

In terms of realistic moves that Hammond could make, I would offer the max to Jordan, Lopez, or Monroe.  I would even be okay with a sign-and-trade for any of those guys as long as it does NOT involve giving up more than one future first round pick or any of the top-end talent on The 15 (The Greek Freak, Parker, or Henson).  The odds that any of the three actually come to Milwaukee are slim but it is fun to speculate because a stud center would round out The 15 nicely for the Bucks for the next couple seasons.  Plus, it will help me get over missing out on Dakari Johnson (C, Kentucky) as a part of the horrific 2015 draft day trade the Raptors that netted the Bucks an overpaid backup point guard in Vasquez.

If Hammond misses out on all of the guys above, I will given my advice for how he could bottom feed in mid-to-late July.  In the mean time, buckle up because rumors are going to start flying daily for the next two weeks until players actually start signing with teams on July 9th.  Whatever happens, make sure to check back for full coverage in this space in mid-July.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

2012 NBA Trade Deadline Advice for John Hammond

Usually I dissect the entire Milwaukee Bucks roster like a surgeon right before the NBA Trade Deadline (see 2010 & 2011) but my disdain for the 2011-12 Milwaukee Bucks is at an all-time high so I am going to forgo looking at the entire roster and focus on one man, Stephen Jackson.

When the Bucks traded for Jackson before the 2011 NBA Draft, I foolishly thought Jackson would be just the scoring threat the Bucks needed. Despite having tons of evidence to the contrary, I thought Jackson might be able to turn over a new leaf in Milwaukee. Anyone who has followed the 2011-12 Milwaukee Bucks knows that I was dead wrong. As usual, Jackson wore out his welcome in Milwaukee and become a locker room cancer, which forced me to write this "Dump Stephen Jackson" post.

We can all agree that Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond needs to do everything humanly possible to trade Jackson before the 2012 NBA Trade Deadline on Thursday, March 15, 2012. As a courtesy to all 14 people that currently comprise the entire Milwaukee Bucks fan base, I worked ESPN's NBA Trade Machine to come up with these five Stephen Jackson trades:

#5) Bucks trade Stephen Jackson (SG/SF) & Andrew Bogut (C) to the Detroit Pistons for Ben Gordon (SG), Charlie Villanueva (SF), & Greg Monroe (C):
Andrew Bogut's health problems makes this trade nearly impossible, especially when you add in that Greg Monroe will be the best NBA center in the Eastern Conference sooner rather than later with Dwight Howard most likely moving to the Western Conference next season. Much like John Hammond making the best out of a horrible situation that he created, Detroit Pistons general manager Joe Dumars would be dumping two horrible free agents that he recently signed (Gordon & Villanueva) along with a potential franchise center for a volatile shooting guard and an injured center. Dumars has to pay a slightly higher tax than Hammond in this trade so the Bucks could throw in a Top-5 protected first round pick. Both general mangers would botch the pick anyhow so if a pick that will most likely amount to nothing is all Dumars needs, add in a draft pick Hammond. Who am I kidding, even a bad general manager like Dumars is not dumb enough to say yes to this deal.

#4) Bucks trade Stephen Jackson (SG/SF) & Mike Dunleavy Jr. (SG/SF) to DAVID STERN the New Orleans Hornets for Chris Kaman (C):
NBA Commissioner David Stern notoriously rejected a much more favorable trade for the Hornets so the odds of this trade going through are very slim. Just like the last trade, the Bucks should throw in their first round pick next year if that is what David Stern needs to get this deal done. Based on who the Bucks drafted in the first round since John Hammond took over as general manager of the Milwaukee (Joe Alexander in 2008, Brandon Jennings in 2009, Larry Sanders in 2010, and Tobias Harris in 2011) there is a 50% chance Hammond will mess up the pick anyhow.

#3) Bucks trade Stephen Jackson (SG/SF) to the New Jersey Nets for Mehmet Okur (C):
For some unknown reason Dwight Howard wants, read that again, wants to play with Stephen Jackson. Call this the Pandering to Dwight Howard Special, which is really the only way the Nets can justify this trade. If the Nets don't get Howard before the trade deadline (looking less likely since Brook Lopez went down with an injury that will keep him out past the NBA Trade Deadline) Deron Williams will most likely leave the Nets this summer via free agency so the Nets need to do everything in their power to get Howard to appease Williams. If not, the Nets are going to move into their new arena in Brooklyn with Brook Lopez as their biggest star...yikes. The Magic need to realize that Dwight Howard is playing home games somewhere other than Orlando next year so they should get something for Howard instead of letting him walk away for nothing. Howard leaving Orlando will not be quite as bad as Shaq leaving Orlando or LeBron leaving Cleveland but it will be close. If Howard wanting to play with Jackson is befuddling, even more of a head scratcher is that apparently Howard would rather play for the Lakers, Mavericks, or Nets instead of teaming up with Derrick Rose for the next five years in Chicago. There are rumors that Howard and Deron Williams are both going to sign with the Mavericks next year. If that happens, I am fine with Howard not wanting to go to the Bulls. If not, Howard & Turkoglu's carcass for Noah & Deng is about as good as the Magic are going to get for Howard.

#2) Bucks trade Stephen Jackson (SG/SF) & Beno Udrih (PG/SG) to the New York Knicks for Amare Stoudemire (PF):
Before the 2002 NBA Draft I had a huge draft crush on Amare that was never fulfilled when he went 9th overall to the Phoenix Suns. To make matters worse the Bucks drafted Marcus Haslip with the 13th pick in the 2002 NBA Draft. Ten years later this trade finally fulfills my 2002 NBA Draft dreams. Quick side note, I was lucky enough to see a game at Madison Square Garden for the first time in my life when I was in New York at the end of January. Keep in mind this was pre-Linsanity. After watching the Knicks that night I realized they are an NBA team where the sum is worth less than their parts. Camerlo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, and Tyson Chandler are impressive NBA players but do not fit together on the same team. Since the Knicks foolishly already used the amnesty clause on Chauncey Billups, they are freaked out about having Amare's uninsured contract on their books through the 2014-15 season so this trade gives the Knicks some much need salary relief for the 2013-14 NBA season via the Stephen Jackson tax. If playing home games at Madison Square Garden in the middle of Linsanity can't get Jackson excited, he is officially a lost cause.

#1) Bucks trade Brandon Jennings (PG) & Stephen Jackson (SG/SF) to the Boston Celtics for Rajon Rondo (PG):
As crazy as this sounds, according to very well connected leagues sources, the Celtics are actively trying to trade Rondo. Right now Rondo is perceived as a much better player than Jennings but let's not forget that Rondo plays with Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett. Reports are that Rondo is a locker room cancer even with all those strong willed players in the locker room. What happens when those guys are no longer on the roster? Juxtapose that with what Jennings is doing with a rag-tag team compared to Rondo with a stacked team and I predict in a few years Jennings might actually be a better NBA player than Rondo. In order to get Jennings on the cheap for a few years, the Celtics have to pay the Stephen Jackson tax. Plus may be Jackson playing with Kevin Garnett will give him the kick in the arse that he needs.

My guess is that the other team in each of the trades proposed would laugh at John Hammond if he even floated any of the deals outline above but offering potentially laughable Stephen Jackson related trades is honestly the only fun thing about the Milwaukee Bucks right now.