Building The 15 - The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly 1.0 for 2015-16 Off-Season

It has been quite a busy off-season for Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond.  Given the young, high-end talent on The 15, I actually thought Hammond would have a ho-hum off-season where he resigned restricted shoot guard/small forward Khris Middleton to a large contract, uses both of his draft picks in the 2015 NBA Draft, and chased big name free agents but only ended up with one or two lesser names.  Boy was I wrong.

All told, Hammond moved out $12.15 million in salaries for next season when he traded power forward Ersan Ilyasova ($7.9 million) to the Detroit Pistons for the non-guaranteed expiring contracts of small forward Caron Butler ($4.5 million) and small forward/power forward Shawne Williams ($1.3 million) and small forward/power forward Jared Dudley ($4.25 million) to the Washington Wizards for a future second round draft pick.  Unfortunately the Bucks added $6.6 million on the night of the 2015 NBA Draft when Hammond traded his 2015 2nd round pick (46th overall) and the L.A. Clippers lottery protected 2017 first round pick to the Toronto Raptors for point guard Greivis Vasquez.  All of that was done to give the Bucks enough salary cap space to try to chase a big-name free agent but Hammond really only saved $5.55 million in salary for next season given Vasquez's expensive salary.  Honestly, I would have just kept Dudley, Ilyasova, and the draft picks they moved for Vasquez instead of trading for Vasquez. The only draft pick the Bucks had in the 2015 NBA Draft was the 17th pick, which they used to draft freshman shooting guard Rashad Vaughn.

Although the Bucks have too many players on The 15 right now, they have six potential free agents after this season: two restricted in power forward/center John Henson and center Miles Plumlee along with four unrestricted in point guard Jared Bayless, shooting guard O.J. Mayo, center Zaza Pachulia, and point guard Greivis Vasquez.  As a result, the Bucks could really use those draft picks, especially if they used one of them on a Euro-draft-and-stash guy.  It seemed that the salary cap space created was going to be all for not given that the Bucks never lure big-name free agents so Hammond signed shooting guard/small forward Khris Middleton to a five-year, $70 million contract, which is the exact same contract that former Buck combo guard Brandon Knight signed with the Phoenix Suns.

If Hammond was being honest with himself he had to try but he always knew that he was never going to be able to lure power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, center Marc Gasol, center DeAndre Jordan, or center Brook Lopez.  With all of that long build-up out of the way, I hope that everyone is sitting down because the Bucks actually lured a big-name free agent when they signed former Detroit Pistons center Greg Monroe to a three-year, $50 million contract.

You can checkout my rankings of The 15 in the sidebar below and although I've now essentially covered every transaction that Hammond made so far this off-season, I still think it makes sense to categorize each of those six moves in The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.  So without further adu, here are my thoughts:

The Good

The Middleton and Monroe contracts mean the Bucks potentially committed ~$21 million a year to those two players (Middleton averages $14 million and Monroe averages $16.67 million) for the next three seasons.  I say potentially as I mentioned above because the third year of Monroe's contract is a player option.  According to a SI.com's Will Law's advanced metric named "Free Agent Quotient, Monroe was the 8th most attractive free agent this off-season and projects as a "Bona fide All-Star" while Middleton was the 23rd most attractive free agent and projects to be an "Above -average starter.  While Law's metric is interesting, if that is NOT easy to wrap your mind around then may be ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton's three-year projections will help determine how much value the Bucks Middleton and Monroe: Monroe is "worth" $69 million and Middleton is "worth" $62 million so the Bucks extracted ~$40 million of surplus value out of those deals given they are on the hook for $91 million for both for the next three seasons.

The 15

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF/PF) 2. Jabari Parker (SF/PF) 3. Greg Monroe (PF/C) 4. Khris Middleton (SG/SF) 5. John Henson (PF/C) 6. Michael Carter-Williams (PG) 7. O.J. Mayo (SG) 8. Rashad Vaughn (SG) 9. Greivis Vasquez (PG) 10. Damien Inglis (SF) 11. Tyler Ennis (PG) 12. Zaza Pachulia (C) 13. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG) 14. Johnny O'Bryant III (PF) 15. Miles Plumlee (C) 16. Jorge Gutierrez (PG) 17. Shawne Williams (SF/PF) 18. Caron Butler (SF)

If Monroe struggles, I am sure that he will opt-in to the third year of his contract to get paid much like fellow former Georgetown Hoya center Roy Hibbert did this off-season.  If Monroe thrives, I could see him opting out to sign a mega-extension with the Bucks or another NBA team given that he will only be 27 years old and the salary cap is projected to be skyrocket over the next two seasons since it is projected to be $67 million this season, $90 million in 2016-17, and $108 million in 2017-18.  As crazy as it sounds, Monroe could potentially double his salary on his next contract extension.  Either way, the Bucks were deemed a more attractive option by Monroe than the L.A. Lakers and New York Knicks, which makes complete on-the-court sense.  Even more interesting than "outbidding" the Lakers and Knicks is what a perfect fit Monroe seems to be for the Bucks given his ability to score down low and grab rebounds, which are two things the Bucks desperately needed last season.  Sure Monroe is NOT a great defender but he is a long, willing defender.  With Monroe in the fold the Bucks project to have an impressive starting five of MCW at point guard, Middleton at shooting guard, The Greek Freak at small forward, Jabari Parker at power forward, and Monroe at center.  If Parker and Monroe struggle too much defensively, I could see the Bucks giving John Henson minutes alongside Monroe because both guys are quality rebounders and each guy's strength (scoring for Monroe and defense for Henson) off-sets each of their weaknesses (defense for Monroe and offense for Henson).

Assuming last season was NOT an aberration, Middleton's salary could be very palatable despite the fact that he will earn $14 million a year given that he is the prototypical 3-and-D player, which seems to be the most important NBA player type right now outside of all-around superstar.  If Middleton suffers a serious injury, the Bucks and Middleton will have a very uncomfortable five-year marriage but I would be really surprised if Middleton's contract year push last year is the ceiling of his performance so as long as he stays healthy, the Bucks will NOT regret the move.  Plus if you look around at the other 3-and-D free agents that signed deals this off-season, they signed similar contracts to Middleton: DeMarre Carroll signed a four-year, $60 million deal with the Toronto Raptors and Tobias Harris signed a four-year, $64 million contract with the Orlando Magic.  If Middleton continues to shoot 40% or better from behind the three-point arc, I could actually see him averaging 20 points a game at least once over the next couple seasons if the Bucks get quality play out of The Greek Freak, Jabari Parker, and Monroe because that would make Middleton one of the most lethal fourth bananas in the NBA.  Given that the salary cap is scheduled to almost double by the 2017-18 NBA season, there is a chance that Middleton's contract looks like the Bucks got him for the mid-level exception by the third season.

Switching gears, the more I noodle on the Vaughn pick, the more I am open to the upside of the decision despite the fact that FiveThirtyEight has Vaughn ranked as the 23rd best player in the 2015 NBA Draft and Pelton has Vaughn ranked as the 48th best player in the 2015 NBA Draft based on projected wins above replacement for his first five years in the NBA.  Vaughn is a long, skilled shooter and one of the youngest players in the 2015 NBA Draft.  Worst case scenario, I see Vaughn becoming a heat-check guy off the bench for the Bucks by his second or third season in the NBA.  Best case scenario, the Bucks drafted Ray Allen 2.0.  I see Vaughn settling somewhere in between but on the off-chance he fulfills his potential upside by his second or third NBA season, he could be the 7th best player on The 15.

The Bad

The Ilyasova trade seems like the kind of deal that would be on the table at the NBA Trade Deadline, which is why I question the motives for why Hammond made the move before the NBA Draft.  What is even more puzzling to me is how Hammond was NOT even able to snag a future second round pick from the Pistons as a part of the deal.  This trade looks even worse given that the Bucks added salary just a few days later in the Vasquez trade.

The Dudley trade will be felt more off the court than on the court.  Sure Dudley is a versatile player given that he can guard essentially every position on the court beside point guard and super tall centers but Dudley's real value came via his positive locker room presence.  We are just 18 months removed from Gary Neal and Larry Sanders getting in a fight in the locker room.  That is the kind of thing that would never happen in a locker room that included Dudley.  With Dudley no longer around, the four guys set to become unrestricted free agents (Bayless, Mayo, Pachulia, and Vasquez) after this season will be expected to be the veteran voices in the locker room too, which will make for an interesting locker room dynamic.

The Ugly

I almost put the Dudley trade in this category but given that the Vasquez trade is possibly the worst trade of Hammond's tenure, I wanted to make sure that The Ugly is reserved solely for that horrible trade.  The Bucks traded away Ilyasova and Dudley in separate deals but I like both of those guys more than Vasquez.  More importantly, I hate small market teams like the Bucks giving away lottery tickets aka draft picks.  Even late first round picks are valuable commodities for NBA teams because if they can land a rotational player, it gives NBA teams a super cheap commodity.

If the Bucks kept the 46th pick, they could have landed a useful player for next season (Norman Powell, Dakari Johnson, or Tyler Harvey) or a Euro-draft-and-stash guy (Arturas Gudaitis, Marcus Eriksson, Satnam Singh Bhamara, Nikola Radicevic, Dimitrios Agravanis, or Luka Mitrovic).  If the Bucks kept the L.A. Clippers lottery protected 2017 first round pick, they again would have a chance to add another cost-effective commodity to The 15.

I continue to lobby Hammond to leave a few spots open on The 15 so that he can either sign non-guaranteed deals to undrafted free agents or bottom-feed the free agent market.  In terms of bottom feeding, if Hammond had spots on The 15, look at the some of the cost-effective player he could have added: three-year, $18 million contract the Memphis Grizzles signed with power forward Brandan Wright; two-year, $10 million contract the Toronto Raptors signed with power forward Bismack Biyombo; four-year, $16 million contract the New York Knicks signed with center Kyle O'Quinn as a part of a sign-and-trade with the Orlando Magic; or four-year, $33 million contract the Sacramento Kings signed with power forward/center Kosta Koufos.  The most earth shattering thing about two of the deals just discussed are that the Knicks and Kings actually made a prudent free agent move after questionable moves earlier in the off-season.

Finally, backup point guards are a dime a dozen.  The Bucks cut Nate Wolters last season to add power forward Kenyon Martin, I hated that move at the time and despise it now because Martin was tits on a bull for the Bucks and if Wolters was still on The 15, Hammond might NOT have traded for Vasquez.  Leaving Wolters aside, you can add guys like Vasquez via free agency for much less than $6 million a year.  Last year the Bucks did just that when they signed Jerryd Bayless to a two-year, $6 million deal.  I didn't love that signing but at least it did NOT cost the Bucks two draft picks.  This off-season, the aforementioned Gary Neal signed a one-year, $2.1 million contract with the Washington Wizards.  The Bayless and Neal deals are two of many that are much better allocation of salary cap space than Vasquez for $6 million.

Unless Hammond makes a trade, The 15 is essentially set for next season.  On paper I would say the Bucks are much better off on the top-end of The 15 now then they were at the start of the off-season but only time will tell whether that translates to on-court performance.  Our first look will be summer league.  All eyes will be on "rookie" small forward Damien Inglis (missed all of last season due to injury) and actual rookie Vaughn.

Building The 15 - Ilyasova Trade and How to Handle Dudley & Middleton

I had my post in the can for how Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond should approach the players on The 15 from last season that have decision points that will impact whether they are on The 15 next season since there are only two players fit that description: shooting guard/small forward Khris Middleton is a restricted free agent and small forward/power forward Jared Dudley has a player option for next season.  Hammond threw a little but of a wrench in that when he traded power forward Ersan Ilyasova aka the Poor Man's Dirk to the Detroit Pistons for small forward Caron Bulter and small forward Shawne Williams.  Before I discuss how to handle Middleton and Dudley, let's clean-up the Ilyasova trade.

This was a salary dump that gives the Bucks essentially useless salary cap space that I hope they sit on unless they can somehow lure a top-end free agent.  I don't want to step on my free agency preview for Hammond that I plan to post early next week too much but unless the Bucks can attract a potential NBA All-Star (think DeAndre Jordan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Monroe, etc.) then I say sit on the sidelines for free agency because the last thing the Bucks need to do is overpay mediocre players to fill spots on The 15 given all the upcoming money they will presumably need to commit to Middleton, The Greek Freak, Jabari Parker, and possibly MCW.  The salary cap space is most likely useless given that mega NBA stars never sign with the Bucks as free agents unless they already play in Milwaukee (think Big Dog, Ray Allen, and Michael Redd).

In terms of the actual players involved, I still think Ilyasova is a Poor Man's Dirk so given that he is scheduled to earn $7.9 million this season and has what amounts to a team option for next season since only $400,000 of his $8.4 million contract is guaranteed, I would have much rather just kept Ilyasova, especially because the Bucks couldn't even beat a future second round pick out of the Pistons in this deal.  Bulter had a cup of stale coffee with the Bucks that lasted 34 games in the 2013-14 season before being waived, which was NOT what Butler expected to happen given that his presence on The 15 for the Bucks that season was being dubbed as a coming home party for the Racine native.  Don't get any grand illusions about Butler rectifying that in his second go round given that the Bucks will waive him before July 1st to get rid of his $4.5 million non-guaranteed salary for next season.  The Bucks can hold tight on Shawne Williams for now because his $1.4 million salary does NOT have a July 1st guaranteed date so he might be a useful, cheap bench guy depending on what happens in the 2015 NBA Draft and free agency.

With my analysis of the Ilyasova salary dump trade out of the way, let's turn to Middleton and Dudley.  The easier case is Dudley because he holds the cards since it is a $4.25 million early termination option so there is NOT much advice I can give Hammond other than to entice Dudley to NOT exercise his early termination option.  Dudley was clearly a useful locker room presence last season and occasionally provided some on-court production given that he can play and defend any position on the floor besides point guard. If Dudley opts out, my guess is that he would do that just to add a couple years at roughly the same average salary per season to his deal but it only takes one irrational team to inflate Dudley's market value.  There is no way that Dudley ever signs another mega-deal but given that the salary cap is going to skyrocket in a couple seasons, I could see a borderline playoff team overpaying Dudley.  Although I like Dudley, the Bucks should NOT get in a bidding war if he exercises his early termination option because next off-season they have a ton of potential free agents so The 15 could go through a pretty drastic makeover in the next 18 months.  Dudley would be a nice person to help smooth over the changes to The 15 but NOT if that price is over $5 million per season.  Let's see if Dudley actually terminates his contract.  If he does, the ceiling I would go on Dudley is three-years, $15 million.

That leaves the most interesting decision for Hammond this off-season, which is how to handle Middleton.  If I am Middleton's agent, I don't want to overplay my hand too much because Bill Simmons sadly formerly of Grantland.com coined the phrase "a market max player".  Feel free to read his entire take but basically it means that since the salary cap is going to skyrocket the next few seasons, there are guys that are NOT max guys that will get paid like max guys because a few years from now that contract will look reasonable given the jump in the NBA's salary structure cap thanks to the influx of cash from their new television deal.  If Middleton is willing to sign for $10 million a year or less, make the deal and move on.  If Middleton is actually holding out as "a market max player" then the decision is much more nuanced.

I assume that Middleton will be looking for between $12 and $15 million per year so let's break this down a little more.  Middleton has only played three NBA seasons but his PER has gone up each season: 11.43 in 2012-13, 12.55 in 2013-14, and 15.70 in 2014-15.  Middleton looks like the perfect 3-and-D given his body-type (6'7" and 225 lbs) and three-point shooting ability (above 40% shooter for his career).  With all the good news out the way, there are two caveats to making Middleton "a market max player".  One, I question if this year-over-year improvement is sustainable for Middleton long-term.  Two, with all the guys the Bucks might have to pay in the future, it might make sense to move Middleton for future draft picks and expiring contracts.  Given that the Bucks have such a hard time attracting free agents, I would sign Middleton to a long-term contract as long as it does NOT exceed $15 million per season.

Make sure to check back tomorrow for the start of my 2015 NBA Draft preview when I given Hammond names of guys that he should reasonably target with the 46th pick in the 2nd round of the 2015 NBA Draft.

Building The 15 - The Good, The Mediocre, The Bad, & The Ugly 1.0

Over the last few seasons Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond has done his best to make the Bucks a playoff contender without going into full rebuild mode.  That dual approach was greatly helped when Bucks got the second pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, which Hammond used to select Duke freshman small forward/power forward Jabari Parker.  With Parker and The Greek Freak on The 15, assuming they sign extensions with the Bucks after their rookie contracts expire (knock on wood), for the first time since The Big Three left town the Bucks actually have two potential franchise pillars on The 15.  After Parker and The Greek Freak, the rest of The 15 has some interesting pieces that Hammond continues to tinker with in hopes of putting together the right mix of young guys and veterans to (barely) make the playoffs.  Here is my review of Hammond's moves since the 2014 NBA Draft.

The Good:
The Bucks claimed point guard Kendall Marshall after the LA Lakers waived him. I was not as high on Marshall as others going into the 2012 NBA Draft and so far Marshall has been a disappointment, which is probably why the Lakers waived him, but it is way too early to give up on a 23 year-old. Since the Bucks had the worst record in the league they had the first chance to claim Marshall after he was cut by the Lakers.  My guess is that a number of teams put in claims to buy low on Marshall but we will never know if that is actually true.  The move does make me wonder why the Lakers thought they could pass Marshall through waivers and resign him though. Best case scenario the Bucks get a backup point guard to groom behind Brandon Knight in hopes of turning him into a potential starter down the road. Worst case scenario the Bucks include Marshall as a salary filler in a trade or cut him with no salary cap ramifications if they find a better player.  That is a long way of saying that I see no downside in claiming Marshall.

The Mediocre:
The Bucks traded shooting guard/small forward Carlos Delfino, center Miroslav Raduljica, and a 2015 second round pick to the L.A. Clippers for small forward/power forward Jared Dudley and a 2017 first round pick.  Originally I did not think the Bucks gave up a second round pick in the deal, which is why I was higher on the trade yesterday than I am right now.  Both picks are the Clippers' picks so they fall where the Clippers select so odds are that they end up at the end of their respective rounds given the quality of The 15 for the Clippers for the foreseeable future.  A late first round draft pick is a nice assets for the Bucks given their inability to attract marque free agents.  Unfortunately the first round pick comes at the expense of a second round pick, which is not as good of an asset (obviously) but a nice asset nonetheless.  Given how many players the Bucks have under contract for next season, I understand the logic in trading two players for one and a 2015 pick for a 2017 pick.

When you add it all up, the Bucks actually save money this season with Delfino and Raduljica scheduled to earn $4.75 million while Dudley is scheduled to earn $4.3 million.  The 2015-16 season is where it gets interesting because Delfino and Raduljica are again scheduled to earn $4.75 million but both contracts are not guaranteed while Dudley holds a $4.3 million player option.  Even if Dudley picks up that option, it means the Bucks acquired a late first round pick for less than $4 million and a second round pick.  This trade would have been under "The Good" section if the second round pick was not included in the trade.

Given Delfino's injury issues (missed all last season and might miss part of this season), Raduljica might be the more useful of the two players for the Clippers.  Moving to the Bucks, Dudley played well in his last three seasons in Phoenix (2010-11 to 2012-13) averaging roughly 15 PER each season but struggled for the Clippers last season when he posted 8.91 PER.  In fact, Dudley played so bad last season that he couldn't even get on the court in the playoffs despite the Clippers being thin on the wing.  Best case scenario, Dudley plays like he did for the Suns while becoming a locker room leader next season and opts out before the 2015-16 season for one more big free agent deal. Worst case scenario, Dudley struggles and exercises his player option thus eating up $8.6 million in salaries for two seasons of lackluster play.

For those scoring at home, at the 2013 NBA Trade Deadline the Bucks turned Beno Udrih, Tobias Harris, and Doron Lamb into Redick, Gustavo Ayon, and Ish Smith.  Last off-season, the Bucks signed Raduljica to a three-year, $4.5 million contract.  The Bucks, Clippers, and Suns swung a three-team deal last off-season that allowed the Bucks to turn Redick into small forward Caron Butler and a 2015 second round draft pick from the Clippers via a sign-and-trade.  In that same trade, Dudley moved to the Clippers and the Clippers sent combo guard Eric Bledsoe to the Suns.

I presume Udrih would be playing elsewhere since his contract expired after the 2012-13 season so let's exclude him from this analysis.  The tenure for Butler and Redick was rocky to say the least, which is why neither is with the team right now.  Thus would the Bucks rather have Harris and Lamb or Dudley and a late first round pick in the 2017 NBA Draft?  I am not as big of a fan of Harris as other are so I would rather have the ladder.

The Bad:
The Bucks signed Jerryd Bayless to a two-year, $6 million guaranteed contact.  That means Bayless will play for his sixth team in seven NBA season. That feels expensive for a guy that posted low teens in PER at everyone one of his stops in the NBA besides 17.7 PER in 31 games for the Toronto Raptors in the 2011-12 NBA season.  Instead of forking over that much for Bayless, I would have offered the mini mid-level exception to combo guard Ramon Sessions.  Not only do I think Sessions is more useful than Bayless but the Bucks could have saved about $3 million over two years in the process.

Truthfully the Bucks should have kept a spot The 15 open for rotating non-guaranteed contracts instead of signing Bayless or Sessions but Sessions is clearly an asset given that the Houston Rockets are interested in acquiring him via a sign and trade so that is the only reason why I even broached the idea. The Bucks need to continue to amassing cost-effective contracts (think Kendall Marshall and Chris Wright) as opposed to overpriced contracts (think Bayless, O.J. Mayo, or Zaza Pachulia). Case and point, the Bucks were able to use Delfino and Raduljica to acquire a first round pick.  I sure don't see that being the case with Bayless.

The Ugly:
Last but certainly not least, the Bucks traded two second round picks to the Brooklyn Nets for the coaching rights of Jason Kidd.  That meant that the Bucks fired head coach Larry Drew after just one season to make way for Kidd.  Trust me, I am not a huge Drew fan but I am worried that Kidd is coming to the Bucks to become a dual head coach and general manager despite the fact that he only has one year of experience doing either job. Sure it is problematic that trading for Kidd cost the Bucks two second round picks (one in 2015 and another in 2018 or 2019) as well as an average annual salary of $4 or $5 million a year for three years but the way the transaction was handled worries me even more.  When the Kidd rumors started to swirl, I broke down in grave detail how much I was against the Bucks trading for Kidd.  I think Hammond agrees with me because the new co-owners Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry pulled off the deal behind Hammond's back.  After the fact, Edens and Lasry admitted that they made a mistake by trading for Kidd without including Hammond in the process but the damage was already done to Hammond and the franchise so I find the apology hollow.

When Herb Kohl owned the Bucks he held veto power (apparently said no to a trade that would have brought Zach Randolph to the Bucks) but I do not think he tinkered that much other than publicly stating that he did not want the Bucks to go into full rebuild mode.  Now the Bucks have new co-owners that clearly want to meddle in their new investment that resulted in them bringing in a new coach that asked for more control over front office decisions after just one season with his former employer that was turned down and is ultimately why he works for the Bucks as opposed to the Nets.  Unfortunately for Hammond the writing is on the wall so he better dust off his resume because I think it is more likely that Kidd is the general manager of the Bucks for the 2015-16 season than Hammond.

With all of the above as the backdrop, here are my current thoughts on how the 16 players stack-up for The 15 for the 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks:

Point Guard (3): Brandon Knight, Jerryd Bayless, and Kendall Marshall

Shooting Guard (2): Nate Wolters and O.J. Mayo

Small Forward (4): Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jared Dudley, Damien Inglis, and Chris Wright

Power Forward (5): Jabari Parker, John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova, Khris Middleton, and Johnny O'Bryant III

Center (2): Larry Sanders and Zaza Pachulia

The Bucks repeatedly said that they want Inglis to play in the NBA this season, which they confirmed today when they signed him to a three-year contract worth a maximum of $2.75 million.  The first two years of the contract are guaranteed (roughly $850,000 each season) while the Bucks hold a team option for the third year (a little less than $1 million).  I wish the Bucks kept Inglis in Europe one more season because that would allow Marshall and Wright to both stay on The 15 next season.  Unless the Bucks make another move that means either Marshall or Wright will have to be cut before next season.

There are rumors that the Bucks are actively shopping Ilyasova and that teams are asking about Sanders.  If the Bucks move Ilyasova or Sanders now they are selling low though so I hope they hold onto both to see if they can improve next season to turn each into a tastier trade asset.  I don't feel that way about Mayo or Pachulia though so if the Bucks can move either of those guys without taking on more long-term guaranteed money, I am fine with that.  Don't hold your breath though because I have a better chance of joining the Bucks' front office than another NBA team being that gullible.

I hope you enjoyed my first installment of "The Good, The Mediocre, The Bad, & The Ugly" for this off-season for the Bucks.  I am hoping to be able to add "The Great" to the front of the name of the post and drop "The Mediocre, The Bad, & The Ugly"; but that is up to Hammond, Kidd, Edens, Lasry, or whomever is currently in charge of the Bucks.  If the Bucks make any more moves this off-season, make sure to check back in this space for full coverage.

Building The 15 - 2014 NBA Trade Deadline Advice for John Hammond

This is the fifth year that I've given Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond advice for how to approach the NBA trade deadline (2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013).  I am not sure what is more shocking, that Hammond is still running the Bucks or that I am still writing this blog.  I am sure that Hammond planted some seeds at NBA All-Star Weekend 2014 in New Orleans with the 29 other NBA general managers to see if he can swing a deal to improve The 15.

Given that the 2014 NBA Draft is shaping up to be the best draft since the 2003 NBA Draft, the Bucks should do every thing in their power to add another first round pick in this year's draft.  I know that sounds overly simplistic but there are a couple NBA teams that are in win-now mode that might be willing to part with their first round pick to add a rotational player to help them down the stretch.  If that's the case, even if that pick projects to be at the end of the first round, the Bucks should consider making that trade.

For all of Hammond's blunders, he drafted very well in the first round the last two years.  In the 2012 NBA Draft the Bucks selected power forward/center John Henson with the 14th pick.  In the 2013 NBA Draft the Bucks selected little known shooting guard/small forward Giannis Antetokounmpo with the 15th pick.  It is very early in the process but it looks like the Bucks got the best player in the 2013 NBA Draft and one of the best players in the 2012 NBA Draft, which is pretty impressive since Hammond made both picks in the middle of the first round.

Recently I took a look at The 15 for the 2013-14 Milwaukee Bucks.  The biggest takeaway is that everyone besides The Greek Freak and Henson should be available at the trade deadline for the right price.  I will not be able to include all the other members of The 15 in the five trades I propose below for Hammond to consider but here is what I think is the right price for some of those 13 players.

Clearly the Bucks need to add talent, even if those players come with some baggage. I thought of floating trades like small forward Caron Butler to the Philadelphia 76ers for small forward Evan Turner or shooting guard Gary Neal to the Cleveland Cavaliers for shooting guard Dion Waiters.  I know both of those trades look way too slanted in favor of the Bucks since they are trading a veteran for a younger asset so the Bucks would probably have to include a future first round pick to get those deals done. Turner and Waiters have been mentioned in a number of trade rumors, which makes me think their current teams do not see them as long-term building blocks but neither are talented enough for the Bucks to part with a future first or second round pick to get these deals done.

I hate to see the Bucks part with any future first round picks given that is really their best way of adding talent.  I am even reticent to include a second round draft pick at this point even though the Bucks have a ton of second round picks at their disposal since I think second round picks are becoming an undervalued lottery ticket for small market franchises.  NBA trades are mostly about shuffling around expensive contracts in hopes that a change of scenery turns one team's trash into another team's treasure.  With the 2014 NBA Trade Deadline (Thursday, February 20th at 2:00 PM CST) rapidly approaching, here are my favorite somewhat plausible trades (least favorite to most favorite) that I put together for Hammond's review with an assist from ESPN's NBA Trade Machine:

#5) Bucks trade Caron Butler (SF), Zaza Pachulia (C), and Ekpe Udoh (PF) to the Los Angeles Lakers for Pau Gasol (C):

This is the second year in a row that I tried to bring Gasol to Milwaukee.  Last year I actually gave the Lakers back an asset in small forward Ersan Ilyasova.  Given that Gasol is in a contract year his value is at an all-time low, which is why the Lakers will not get much in return.  I am sure the Lakers would be too embarrassed to make this move but given how much they overpaid shooting guard Kobe Bryant, they do not have the salary cap space to resign Gasol this off-season and still fill their roster with anything other than minimum wage players.  At 33, it looks like Gasol is in the twilight of his career but I always thought he would thrive in a smaller market where he didn't have to share the limelight with Bryant.  This trade allows the Bucks to try to convince Gasol to re-sign in Milwaukee this odd-season while the Lakers can trot out a serviceable NBA center in Pachulia at a slightly inflated price for the next two years.

#4) Bucks trade Gary Neal (SG) to the Phoenix Suns for Archie Goodwin (SG):

Clearly the Suns are going to build long-term around the back court of Eric Beldsoe and Goran Dragic.  Bledsoe is currently hurt yet the Suns are relying on the likes of Gerald Green and Leandro Barbosa instead of Goodwin.  Since the Suns are in win-now mode, they could use an instant offense guy off the bench like Neal.  Let's not forget that Neal was instrumental in giving the San Antonio Spurs a 2-1 series lead over the Miami Heat in the 2013 NBA Finals.  Sure Neal got into a very public locker room spat with Larry Sanders this season but I am sure that is because Neal is frustrated by the fact he is playing for the worst team in the NBA.  The Suns have three first round picks in the 2014 NBA Draft, which they are apparently open to including in trades.  The upside of the Neal for Goodwin deal is for the Suns can hold onto their picks without adding too much salary since Bledsoe is going sign a long-term extension this off-season while adding an instant offense guy off the bench they desperately need for their playoff run.  The upside for the Bucks is that they get a potential lottery ticket in Goodwin while extricating a locker room cancer in Neal.

#3) Bucks trade Caron Butler (SF) and Ekpe Udoh (PF) to the New Orleans Pelicans for Eric Gordon (SG):

The Pelicans have arguably the best player in the NBA under the age of 25 in center Anthony Davis.  Unfortunately besides power forward Ryan Anderson, David Stern the Pelicans put together a ton of mismatched parts to go along with Anderson and Davis.  With Anderson out a few months, Udoh gives the Pelicans a serviceable power forward without the need to make any long-term financial commitments.  Gordon is one of the biggest enigmas in the NBA because when healthy he looks like a Top 10 shooting guard.  Unfortunately Gordon has only played in 296 of a possible 461 regular season games so far in his NBA career.  This trade gives the Pelicans some clarity to their back court since they have point guard Jrue Holiday, combo guard Tyreke Evans, and Gordon but only two spots to play them.  All three are signed to expensive long-term contracts so they all expect to play.  Worst case scenario, this trade gives the Pelicans a ton of salary cap relief since Butler and Udoh are on expiring contracts while Gordon is scheduled to earn $15 million next season and holds a $15.5 million player options for the following season.  Current Bucks shooting O.J. Mayo is scheduled to earn $8 million each of the next two seasons.  That means this trade would give the Bucks the same problem that the Pelicans currently have.  Luckily the Bucks have point guards Brandon Knight and Nate Wolters signed to rookie contracts through the 2015-16 season so they can deal with committing $23 million to their shooting guard position each of the next two seasons.

#2) Bucks trade Caron Butler (SF) and Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF) to the Detroit Pistons for Josh Smith (SF/PF) and Tony Mitchell (PF):

The Pistons signed Smith to a four-year, $54 million deal this off-season thinking they could get Smith to play down low instead doing his best Antoine Walker impression as he endlessly chucks 3's just like he did for the Atlanta Hawks.  Instead Smith has continued his lazy play, which means the Pistons are paying a ton of money for Antoine Walker 2.0.  This trade gives the Pistons a do-over on the Smith deal by adding a quality basketball player in Ilyasova.  Sure Ilyasova is struggling this season but I stand by my Poor Man's Dirk comparison.  This trade also gives the Bucks a Milwaukee native in Mitchell.  I know it seems like the last thing the Bucks need is a chucker like Smith but for some reason I still think he is redeemable in the right situation.  The Bucks are currently not the right situation but if they continue to struggle they can add another piece at the top of the 2014 NBA Draft to put together a pretty intriguing team for next season. If the Bucks and Pistons made this trade it would mark their second trade in less than a year.  In the first trade the Bucks sent Brandon Jennings (PG) to the Pistons for Brandon Knight (PG), Khris Middleton (SF) and Viacheslav Kravtsov (C).  So far it looks like the Bucks got the better end of the Jennings sign-and-trade since the Pistons took on all the risk.  In this trade the Bucks are taking on all the risk but with all the talent the Bucks have down low they can deal with Smith harnessing his inner Antoine Walker sometimes, just not all the time.

#1) Bucks trade Ekpe Udoh (PF) to the Los Angeles Clippers for Jared Dudley (SF):

After Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan the Clippers are trotting out the likes of Byron Mullens, Ryan Hollins, and Antwan Jamison as their front court reserves so clearly they need to get more physical up front.  Add in that the Clippers have a ton of shooters and Dudley is clearly expendable.  Dudley is scheduled to earn $4.25 million a season through 2015-16.  The last year of Dudley's deal is a player option, which I could see him declining to get out of Milwaukee as fast as possible.  If Udoh shows that he fits in, the Clipper can extend him a $6 million qualifying offer for next season.  If not, the Clippers get more physical up front for a playoff run while shedding some long-term salary.  The Bucks committed long-term money to a number of other guys in the front-court (Ilyasova, Pachulia, and Sanders) so if they held onto Udoh through this season, I bet they would not even extend a qualifying offer to Udoh anyhow.  Add in that Dudley is a quality locker room guy so he could be a great influence on The Greek Freak, this seems like the rare win-win NBA trade.

I would be shocked if Hammond pulled off any of the deals just discussed but if Hammond makes any moves before the 2014 NBA Trade Deadline, make sure to check back for full coverage.