Friday, July 25, 2014

Building The 53 - The Last Three Roster Spots

Welcome to the third and final installment of my look at the current roster for the 2014 Green Bay Packers heading into the start of training camp this weekend.  As I said earlier this week there are 35 locks* and 15 players that will most likely* make The 53.  That leave just three spots truly up for grabs, which is five less than last year.

Although the Packers usually keep a few undrafted rookie free agents (think Andy Mulumba), it is too hard to tell what players are going to emerge since training camp has not started.  Here are my pre-training camp rankings within each position (best to worst) for the rest of the current roster:

Quarterback: Chase Rettig
Running Back: Michael Hill, Rajon Neal, and LaDarius Perkins
Fullback: Ina Liaina
Wide Receiver: Jeff Janis, Kevin Dorsey, Myles White, Alex Gillett, Chris Harper, and Gerrard Sheppard
Tight End: Jake Stoneburner, Colt Lyerla, and Justin Perillo
Offensive Tackle: Aaron Adams, John Fullington, and Jeremy Vujnovich
Offensive Guard: Lane Taylor, Andrew Tiller, and Jordan McCray
Center: Garth Gerhart
Defensive End: Jerel Worthy, Luther Robinson and Carlos Gray
Defensive Tackle: Mike Pennel
Middle Linebacker: Sam Barrington, Jake Doughty, and Joe Thomas
Outside Linebacker: Andy Mulumba, Nate Palmer, Jayrone Elliott, Adrian Hubbard, and Korey Jones
Cornerback: Demetri Goodson, Jumal Rolle, Ryan White, and Antonio Dennard
Safety: Chris Banjo, Charles Clay, and Tanner Miller

Lots of things can change throughout the preseason but my current advice would be to keep Jeff Janis, Andy Mulumba, and Lane Taylor.  Check back as the preseason plays out for my continued thoughts on Building The 53.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Building The 53 - The Most Likelies*

Yesterday I gave you my 35 locks* to make The 53.  I think there are 15 guys that will most likely* make The 53, which is down from 18 last year, but that is because there are eight more locks* for The 53 this year over last season.

Just to reiterate, you may have noticed the asterisk in the title and throughout this post.  I put that there because if any of the following guys suffer a season ending injury during training camp (knocking on wood as I type), the Packers will place them on injured reserve so they would not make The 53 but still would be in the team's long-term plans.  Absent a season ending injury, here are the 15 most likelies* to make The 53:

Quarterback: Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien

Running BackDuJuan Harris
Fullback: John Kuhn
Wide Receiver: Jared Abbrederis

Tight End: Ryan Taylor
Offensive Tackle: Derek Sherrod
Offensive Guard: None
Center: Corey Linsley
Defensive End: None
Defensive Tackle: Letroy Guion
Middle Linebacker: Jamari Lattimore

Outside Linebacker: Nick Perry and Carl Bradford
Cornerback: Davon House and Jarrett Bush

Safety: Sean Richardson
Specialist: None

That means absent injury, there are really only three roster spots up for grabs.  Check back tomorrow for my initial thoughts on the disposition of those final three roster spots.

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Building The 53 - The Locks*

As training camp opens this weekend for the 2014 Green Bay Packers, much like I did last year, I am going to run a three-part series of looking at how I think The 53 will shake out before the start of training camp.  This marks my second in-depth look at The 53 following my first look in mid-May, which came a little more than a week after the 2014 NFL Draft.

The first installment are the locks* currently on the roster.  The reason all of the guys I am about to list are are locks* stems from one of three reasons.  One, they recently signed a huge contract extension (i.e. wide receiver Jordy Nelson).  Two, they were recently drafted in an early round of the NFL Draft (i.e. safety Ha Ha Clinton Dix).  Three, they are solid starters (i.e. middle linebacker A.J. Hawk) at an important position.

You may have noticed the asterisk following locks.  I put that there because if any of the following guys suffer a season ending injury during training camp (knocking on wood as I type), the Packers will place them on injured reserve so they would not make The 53 but still would be in the team's long-term plans.  Absent a season ending injury, here are the 35 locks*, up from just 27 last season, to make The 53:

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers
Running Back: Eddie Lacy and James Starks
Fullback: None
Wide Receiver: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jarrett Boykin, and Davante Adams
Tight End: Andrew Quarless, Brandon Bostick, and Richard Rodgers
Offensive Tackle: Bryan Bulaga, David Bakhtiari, and Don Barclay
Offensive Guard: Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang
Center: JC Tretter
Defensive End: Datone Jones, Josh Boyd, and Khyri Thornton
Defensive Tackle: B.J. Raji and Mike Daniels
Middle Linebacker: A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones
Outside Linebacker: Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, and Mike Neal
Cornerback: Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Casey Hayward
Safety: Morgan Burnett, Micah Hyde, and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
Specialists: Mason Crosby (K), Tim Masthay (P), and Brett Goode (LS)

That leaves 18 roster spots up for grabs.  Check back tomorrow for my list of guys "most likely" to make The 53.

Monday, June 30, 2014

Building The 15 - A Quick Look at The 15 for John Hammond or Possibly Jason Kidd Following the 2014 NBA Draft

I planned a short post with advice for how Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond should approach free agency following my review of the 2014 NBA Draft.  With that post in the can Saturday afternoon and ready to run first thing Monday as a little diversion for the start of the work week, news broke late Saturday night that the Bucks and Brooklyn Nets were engaged in serious discussions regarding compensation for the Nets to let current head coach Jason Kidd out of the last three years of the four-year, $10.5 million contract that he signed with the Nets before last season.  Apparently this stemmed from the fact that Kidd approached Nets ownership about an expanded front-office role that included say in roster moves but was rebuffed, which lead Kidd to look for a new employer.

Kidd experienced tons of turmoil as coach of the Nets, which was his first season moving from playing to coaching.  Sure the Nets had an over-priced and older but star drive roster last season but that was a big part of the reason the Nets hired Kidd because he was supposed to handle his "peers" given that he actually played in the NBA for the New York Knicks for the 2012-13 season.  Early in the season the Nets struggled but instead of shouldering the blame, Kidd tried to place blame elsewhere starting with lead assistant coach Lawrence Frank.  Despite being Kidd's hand-picked lead assistant, a little over a month into the season, Kidd made Frank the fall guy when he removed Frank from the bench to instead focus on scouting despite being reportedly the highest paid assistant coach (six-years, $6 million) in the NBA last season.

Prior to this Kidd debacle, the new Bucks co-owners Marc Lasry and Wesley Edens have handled everything perfectly since they bought the Bucks from Herb Kohl at the end of last season their first official act was to send Mallory Edens as the team representative to the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery, which made for one of the most awkward Twitter situations of 2014 as grown men digitally drooled over Edens.  Although Edens did not deliver the first pick despite the fact that the Bucks had the worst record in the NBA, she will go down as the most memorable thing from the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery.

Even though the Bucks posted their worst record in franchise history, the new ownership group along with the second pick in the 2014 NBA Draft gave fans hope that things could turnaround fast next year.  Instead of making flashy moves, the new ownership group went on a grassroots tour where they interacted with fans in-person and online.  The new ownership group openly discussed a new arena but stressed the need to improve The 15.  Instead of replacing coaches or members of the front-office, the new ownership group said they were going to give each group a season to keep their respective jobs.  Trust me, I did not like when Hammond hired Larry Drew as head coach last off-season but do believe Drew and Hammond should have at least one more season.  It looks like Hammond will get another season but I would he shocked if Drew is employed by the Bucks at the end of the week.

Apparently second round pick(s) are being discussed as compensation for Kidd.  Let's not confuse Kidd with the second coming of Phil Jackson.  I am not sure what Kidd has done so far since shifting from playing to coaching to prove that he is a even a quality head coach let alone a guy worthy of being a coach with say over personnel decisions too.  Let's see him handle just coaching before giving him front-office responsibilities too.  Thankfully the current reports are that the Bucks envision Kidd solely as a coach.

Before the 2014 NBA Draft I advised Hammond how to approach restricted (power forward Ekpe Udoh) and unrestricted (power forward Jeff Adrien and combo guard Ramon Sessions) free agents.  Following the draft, my advice remains essentially the same, especially if Hammond and/or Kidd can somehow how get teams to take on some of the bloated contracts on The 15.  Following the 2014 NBA Draft, here is my current depth chart for The 15:

Point Guard (1): Brandon Knight

Shooting Guard (3): Nate Wolters, O.J. Mayo, and Carlos Delfino

Small Forward (4): Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Damien Inglis, and Chris Wright

Power Forward (4): John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova, Khris Middleton, and Johnny O'Bryant III

Center (3): Larry Sanders, Zaza Pachulia, and Miroslav Raduljica

As you can see above, the Bucks already have 15 guys projected to be under contract for next season once they sign their three draft picks so that leaves the Bucks without any real open roster spots.  Thankfully the Bucks have some guys currently on The 15 like Wright and Radulijca with either a low cap number or only a partially guaranteed contract so that gives the Bucks some wiggle room.  Still Hammond's roster construction flies in the face of my theory of leaving the last three spots on The 15 for low-priced, non-guaranteed contracts that that you can churn on a weekly basis, if necessary.  Given that The 15 is currently front-court heavy, I would be shocked if the Bucks did NOT add at least one ball handler given that they are light at that position despite having a number of point forwards on The 15.

In order to have real wiggle room to actually sign free agents though, the Bucks would need to offload some of their expensive contracts without giving up draft picks or taking on more long-term money.  There are four candidates to move: Mayo, Ilyasova, Sanders, and Pachulia.  Last season teams tried to buy low on Ilyasova and Sanders but I would hold onto those guys because I see them being the third or fourth best player on a playoff contender when healthy and with their head screwed on straight.  That means I would trade Mayo's or Pachulia's bloated contracts, pun in the case of Mayo, in a heartbeat.  Unfortunately I see both of those as a long-shot without taking on equally horrible contracts.

I am not sure what the Bucks would do with the salary cap space anyhow whether the Bucks have Kidd in the fold or not because marque free agents are NOT interested in signing with the Bucks since thy do not yet have a Top 10 NBA player and the team plays in Milwaukee.  Thus the Bucks need to lure free agents by drafting superstars that entice free agents.  Thankfully there is hope on that front with The Greek Freak and Parker on The 15.  Right now that is hope more than production but if The Greek Freak and Parker backup their limitless potential with production, the Bucks might actually have a shot to sign marquee free agents.

I am not a fan of giving the Nets anything more than a bag of balls for Kidd's service as a coach and/or member of the front office.  Plus it will be super awkward to keep Drew as head coach if the Bucks "miss-out" on Kidd.  There is no way that the Bucks are landing one of the marquee free agents this off-season like LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony so my advice is to pass on Kidd and let the high-end market settle out before making a single free agent contract offer.  At that point, the Bucks should bottom feed to improve the bottom third of The 15 with rotational players on the cheap.  If any of those guys turn out to be worth having long-term, great.  If not, at least the Bucks are building a cost-effective, flexible roster.  Unfortunately I am not in charge so I see Kidd becoming a member of the Bucks by the end of the week.  Either way, it will be interesting to see how the next few days play out.

Friday, June 27, 2014

Building The 15 - 2014 Milwaukee Bucks Draft Picks

This was my fourth year doing a "mock" first round NBA Draft (2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014) and my fifth year reviewing Milwaukee Bucks general manger John Hammond's performance in the actual draft (2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013).

Usually there are a ton of trades in the first round of the NBA Draft, which makes it really hard to marry pick, player, and team correctly.  True to form, there were a ton of trades in the first round of the 2014 NBA Draft.  I only nailed players and team for the first two picks out of 30 in the first round of the 2014 NBA Draft: Cleveland Cavaliers took Andrew Wiggins (SG, Kansas) and the Bucks took Jabari Parker (SF, Duke).

Although that seems like I did a horrible job, for the second year in a row I correctly predicted 24 out of 30 players* that went in the first round of the draft.  I actually should have predicted 25 but somehow inexplicably left Indiana power forward Noah Vonleh out of my first round mock draft.  I am not as high on Vonleh as others but had him as the 9th or 10th best prospect in the draft so it was merely a brain fart that I somehow forgot to include him in my mock draft.  Of the 6 guys** that I thought should go in the first round, all but two went by the 38th pick and they all were drafted by the 46th pick.

Here is a full breakdown of the four players that the Milwaukee Bucks drafted in the 2014 NBA Draft:

1st Round (2nd Overall): Jabari ("The Franchise") Parker
Position: Small Forward
Age: 19
Birth date: March 15, 1994
Birthplace: Chicago, IL
School: Duke
Class: Freshman
Height: 6'8"
Weight: 241 lbs
Reach: 8'8"
Wingspan
: 7'0"
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford)
: Super skilled wing, can score from anywhere on the floor, elite basketball instincts and IQ, excellent passer, good ball handler for his size, good rebounder, high character, and great motor
Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): A good but not elite athlete, can be a liability on defense, can sometimes struggle against long athletic player, and lacks ideal conditioning
Other Possible Picks: Dante Exum (PG, Australia), Joel Embiid (C, Kansas), and Marcus Smart (PG, Oklahoma State)
Twitter: @JabariParker
Tweets:

Analysis: My tweets immediately following the pick don't convey how excited I am about the picks for the Bucks.  Teams hope to not pick in the Top 5 regularly but getting a talent like Parker with the second pick is a rarity since he would have been the first pick in the 2013 NBA Draft if he went straight from high school to the NBA.  Plus only three players drafted in the Top 4 since the start of the NBA Lottery in 1985 won an NBA Champion with the team that drafted them.  Two are fairly easy, David Robinson and Tim Duncan as staples of the San Antonio Spurs.  The third is Darko Milicic, which is borderline comical given that the Detroit Pistons won the 2004 NBA Championship despite Darko's services even though they drafted him instead of Carmelo Antony, Chris Bosh, or Dwyane Wade with second pick in the loaded 2003 NBA Draft.

Parker's freshman season at Duke was dissected ad nausea.  There were rumors that Parker had a hurt foot going into the season, which hurt his conditioning so he played heavier than I expect him to play in the NBA.  Even playing heavy, Parker was able to score almost at will last season.  Unfortunately for how well Parker played offensively, he struggled just as much defensively.  There is one hopeful school of thought that if Parker gets in shape, he might actually improve his defense in the NBA.  Even if Parker struggles on the defensive end, let's not forget that the Bucks will most likely start him in the front-court alongside The Greek Freak and Larry Sanders, which will go a long way towards covering up his defensive limitations if he can't improve on that end of the court in the NBA.

Mark my words, if Parker stays in Milwaukee for his entire career he will have his number retired and give the Bucks a legitimate chance to win their first NBA Title since 1971.


2nd Round (31st Overall): Damien ("Musculaire") Inglis
Position: Small Forward
Age:19
Birth date: May 20, 1995
Birthplace: Cayenne, French Guiana
School: N/A
Class:N/A
Height: 6'8"
Weight: 240 lbs
Reach: 9'0"
Wingspan
: 7'3"
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford)
: Long athletic forward, NBA strength, excellent defender, good rebounder, and strong finisher around the basket
Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Needs to improve his jump shot and a bit of a twiner
Other Possible Picks: K.J. Daniels (SF, Clemson), Cleanthony Early (SF, Wichita State), and Jarnell Stokes (PF, Tennessee)
Twitter
: @DamienINGLIS
Tweets:

Analysis: The Bucks added a muscular version of Parker in Inglis.  Unfortunately Inglis is currently rehabbing a broken foot.  Despite only being 19, if Inglis had a healthy foot he would be a starter on their summer league team and possibly even push for being a part of the rotation next season.  Worst case, I see Inglis as a rich man's The Prince (Luc Richard Mbah a Moute).  Best case, the Bucks bought low on the next European stud.


2nd Round (36th Overall): Johnny ("The Leprechaun") O'Bryant
Position: Power Forward
Age: 21
Birth date: June 1, 1993
Birthplace: Cleveland, MS
School: LSU
Class: Junior
Height: 6'9"
Weight: 250 lbs
Reach: N/A
Wingspan
: N/A
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford)
: Traditional power forward, does most of his damage in the paint, excellent rebounder, and strong/physical player
Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Just an average athlete, lacks consistency, and has had conditioning issues in the past
Other Possible Picks: Glenn Robinson III (SF, Michigan), Nikola Jokić (PF/C, Serbia), and Walter Tavares (C, Carpe Verde)
Twitter
: @OBryant_The3rd
Tweet:
Analysis: Hammond could have made the 2014 NBA Draft the draft of the small forward if he took Glenn Robinson III.  Sure that would leave the Bucks with three too many small forwards but the Bucks need to amass talent where ever possible, irrespective of position.  Plus, unless the Bucks make a few trades they have a glut of power forwards on The 15 too so its not like O'Bryant is filling a huge need anyhow.  There is no chance that Ekpe Udoh returns to The 15 now, which could be good news for his book club because I am not sure another NBA team will make him an offer this off-season.  Much like Parker, the Bucks need to do everything in their power to get O'Bryant in shape for next season, which will give him a give him an outside chance to crack the 10-man rotation.


2nd Round (48th Overall): Lamar ("Snowbird") Patterson
Position: Small Forward
Age: 22
Birth date: August 12, 1991
Birthplace: Lancaster, PA
School: Pittsburgh
Class: Senior
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 226 lbs
Reach: 8'3"
Wingspan
: 6'11"
Positive Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford)
: All-around player, good shooter with range, excellent passer for his size, solid rebounder, and very versatile
Negative Attributes (per ESPN's Chad Ford): Doesn't do any one thing great and not an elite athlete
Other Possible Picks: Alec Brown (C, University of Wisconsin, Green Bay), Thanasis Antetokounmpo (SF, Greece), and Alessandro Gentile (SF, Italy)
Twitter
: @LP21_
Tweet:
Analysis: The Bucks traded the rights to Patterson for a future second round draft pick via the Brooklyn Nets.  I am not sure what year that pick vests but my guess is that the pick will be earlier than 48th overall but that is just conjecture.  The big miss is that the Bucks could have taken The Greek Freak's older brother Thanasis.  I wholeheartedly support anything that keeps The Greek Freak in Milwaukee long-term.  Don't get me wrong, this is probably an Aaron and Jordan Rodgers situations with Thanasis playing the part of Jordan but why not keep the most physically gifted player on The 15 that was homesick all last season happy?

As I said last year, the Bucks are in desperate need of a spark for the franchise.  Besides going to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2001, the Bucks have not won a playoff series since 1989.  Last season was downright painful to be a Bucks fan on the eve of last season coming to a close, the Bucks were sold by long-term owner Herb Kohl to Marc Lasry and Wesley Edens.  Given how much the Bucks struggled on the court, they had the best odds to win the NBA Lottery.  Fortunately (you read that correctly) the Bucks "lost" the lottery so they settled for the second pick.  That marks the 6th time that the Bucks have fallen in the last 16 NBA Draft lotteries (remained in the same position eight times and improved only twice).  Once Kansas center Joel Enbiid had foot surgery to insert screws in his foot a week before the draft, the Bucks were focused solely on Wiggins and Parker.  If Wiggins turns out to be a stud and Parker is a bust, the Bucks can blame that on being unlucky in the lottery.  f the reverse turns out to be the case, the Bucks will be a relevant NBA franchise for the next decade.


Footnote:
* = I missed on Noah Vonleh (PF, Indiana) went 9th to the Hornets, Bruno Caboclo (SF, Brazil) went 20th to the Raptors, Mitch McGary (PF, Michigan) went 21st to the Thunder, Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG, Serbia) went 27th to the Suns, C.J. Wilcox (SG, Washington) went 28th to the Clippers, and Josh Huestis (SF/PF, Stanford) went 29th to the Thunder.

** = Jarnell Stokes (PF, Tennessee) rated 18th but went 35th to the Jazz, K.J. McDaniels (SF, Clemson) rated 26th but went 32nd to the 76ers, Glenn Robinson III (SF, Michigan) rated 17th but went 40 to the Timberwolves, Spencer Dinwiddie (PG, Colorado) rated 28th but went 38th to the Pistons, Jordan Clarkson (PG, Missouri) rated 29th but went 46th to Wizards, and Damien Inglis (SF, France) rated 30th but went 31st to Bucks.