Building The 15 - The Good, The Mediocre, The Bad, & The Ugly 1.0

Over the last few seasons Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond has done his best to make the Bucks a playoff contender without going into full rebuild mode.  That dual approach was greatly helped when Bucks got the second pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, which Hammond used to select Duke freshman small forward/power forward Jabari Parker.  With Parker and The Greek Freak on The 15, assuming they sign extensions with the Bucks after their rookie contracts expire (knock on wood), for the first time since The Big Three left town the Bucks actually have two potential franchise pillars on The 15.  After Parker and The Greek Freak, the rest of The 15 has some interesting pieces that Hammond continues to tinker with in hopes of putting together the right mix of young guys and veterans to (barely) make the playoffs.  Here is my review of Hammond's moves since the 2014 NBA Draft.

The Good:
The Bucks claimed point guard Kendall Marshall after the LA Lakers waived him. I was not as high on Marshall as others going into the 2012 NBA Draft and so far Marshall has been a disappointment, which is probably why the Lakers waived him, but it is way too early to give up on a 23 year-old. Since the Bucks had the worst record in the league they had the first chance to claim Marshall after he was cut by the Lakers.  My guess is that a number of teams put in claims to buy low on Marshall but we will never know if that is actually true.  The move does make me wonder why the Lakers thought they could pass Marshall through waivers and resign him though. Best case scenario the Bucks get a backup point guard to groom behind Brandon Knight in hopes of turning him into a potential starter down the road. Worst case scenario the Bucks include Marshall as a salary filler in a trade or cut him with no salary cap ramifications if they find a better player.  That is a long way of saying that I see no downside in claiming Marshall.

The Mediocre:
The Bucks traded shooting guard/small forward Carlos Delfino, center Miroslav Raduljica, and a 2015 second round pick to the L.A. Clippers for small forward/power forward Jared Dudley and a 2017 first round pick.  Originally I did not think the Bucks gave up a second round pick in the deal, which is why I was higher on the trade yesterday than I am right now.  Both picks are the Clippers' picks so they fall where the Clippers select so odds are that they end up at the end of their respective rounds given the quality of The 15 for the Clippers for the foreseeable future.  A late first round draft pick is a nice assets for the Bucks given their inability to attract marque free agents.  Unfortunately the first round pick comes at the expense of a second round pick, which is not as good of an asset (obviously) but a nice asset nonetheless.  Given how many players the Bucks have under contract for next season, I understand the logic in trading two players for one and a 2015 pick for a 2017 pick.

When you add it all up, the Bucks actually save money this season with Delfino and Raduljica scheduled to earn $4.75 million while Dudley is scheduled to earn $4.3 million.  The 2015-16 season is where it gets interesting because Delfino and Raduljica are again scheduled to earn $4.75 million but both contracts are not guaranteed while Dudley holds a $4.3 million player option.  Even if Dudley picks up that option, it means the Bucks acquired a late first round pick for less than $4 million and a second round pick.  This trade would have been under "The Good" section if the second round pick was not included in the trade.

Given Delfino's injury issues (missed all last season and might miss part of this season), Raduljica might be the more useful of the two players for the Clippers.  Moving to the Bucks, Dudley played well in his last three seasons in Phoenix (2010-11 to 2012-13) averaging roughly 15 PER each season but struggled for the Clippers last season when he posted 8.91 PER.  In fact, Dudley played so bad last season that he couldn't even get on the court in the playoffs despite the Clippers being thin on the wing.  Best case scenario, Dudley plays like he did for the Suns while becoming a locker room leader next season and opts out before the 2015-16 season for one more big free agent deal. Worst case scenario, Dudley struggles and exercises his player option thus eating up $8.6 million in salaries for two seasons of lackluster play.

For those scoring at home, at the 2013 NBA Trade Deadline the Bucks turned Beno Udrih, Tobias Harris, and Doron Lamb into Redick, Gustavo Ayon, and Ish Smith.  Last off-season, the Bucks signed Raduljica to a three-year, $4.5 million contract.  The Bucks, Clippers, and Suns swung a three-team deal last off-season that allowed the Bucks to turn Redick into small forward Caron Butler and a 2015 second round draft pick from the Clippers via a sign-and-trade.  In that same trade, Dudley moved to the Clippers and the Clippers sent combo guard Eric Bledsoe to the Suns.

I presume Udrih would be playing elsewhere since his contract expired after the 2012-13 season so let's exclude him from this analysis.  The tenure for Butler and Redick was rocky to say the least, which is why neither is with the team right now.  Thus would the Bucks rather have Harris and Lamb or Dudley and a late first round pick in the 2017 NBA Draft?  I am not as big of a fan of Harris as other are so I would rather have the ladder.

The Bad:
The Bucks signed Jerryd Bayless to a two-year, $6 million guaranteed contact.  That means Bayless will play for his sixth team in seven NBA season. That feels expensive for a guy that posted low teens in PER at everyone one of his stops in the NBA besides 17.7 PER in 31 games for the Toronto Raptors in the 2011-12 NBA season.  Instead of forking over that much for Bayless, I would have offered the mini mid-level exception to combo guard Ramon Sessions.  Not only do I think Sessions is more useful than Bayless but the Bucks could have saved about $3 million over two years in the process.

Truthfully the Bucks should have kept a spot The 15 open for rotating non-guaranteed contracts instead of signing Bayless or Sessions but Sessions is clearly an asset given that the Houston Rockets are interested in acquiring him via a sign and trade so that is the only reason why I even broached the idea. The Bucks need to continue to amassing cost-effective contracts (think Kendall Marshall and Chris Wright) as opposed to overpriced contracts (think Bayless, O.J. Mayo, or Zaza Pachulia). Case and point, the Bucks were able to use Delfino and Raduljica to acquire a first round pick.  I sure don't see that being the case with Bayless.

The Ugly:
Last but certainly not least, the Bucks traded two second round picks to the Brooklyn Nets for the coaching rights of Jason Kidd.  That meant that the Bucks fired head coach Larry Drew after just one season to make way for Kidd.  Trust me, I am not a huge Drew fan but I am worried that Kidd is coming to the Bucks to become a dual head coach and general manager despite the fact that he only has one year of experience doing either job. Sure it is problematic that trading for Kidd cost the Bucks two second round picks (one in 2015 and another in 2018 or 2019) as well as an average annual salary of $4 or $5 million a year for three years but the way the transaction was handled worries me even more.  When the Kidd rumors started to swirl, I broke down in grave detail how much I was against the Bucks trading for Kidd.  I think Hammond agrees with me because the new co-owners Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry pulled off the deal behind Hammond's back.  After the fact, Edens and Lasry admitted that they made a mistake by trading for Kidd without including Hammond in the process but the damage was already done to Hammond and the franchise so I find the apology hollow.

When Herb Kohl owned the Bucks he held veto power (apparently said no to a trade that would have brought Zach Randolph to the Bucks) but I do not think he tinkered that much other than publicly stating that he did not want the Bucks to go into full rebuild mode.  Now the Bucks have new co-owners that clearly want to meddle in their new investment that resulted in them bringing in a new coach that asked for more control over front office decisions after just one season with his former employer that was turned down and is ultimately why he works for the Bucks as opposed to the Nets.  Unfortunately for Hammond the writing is on the wall so he better dust off his resume because I think it is more likely that Kidd is the general manager of the Bucks for the 2015-16 season than Hammond.

With all of the above as the backdrop, here are my current thoughts on how the 16 players stack-up for The 15 for the 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks:

Point Guard (3): Brandon Knight, Jerryd Bayless, and Kendall Marshall

Shooting Guard (2): Nate Wolters and O.J. Mayo

Small Forward (4): Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jared Dudley, Damien Inglis, and Chris Wright

Power Forward (5): Jabari Parker, John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova, Khris Middleton, and Johnny O'Bryant III

Center (2): Larry Sanders and Zaza Pachulia

The Bucks repeatedly said that they want Inglis to play in the NBA this season, which they confirmed today when they signed him to a three-year contract worth a maximum of $2.75 million.  The first two years of the contract are guaranteed (roughly $850,000 each season) while the Bucks hold a team option for the third year (a little less than $1 million).  I wish the Bucks kept Inglis in Europe one more season because that would allow Marshall and Wright to both stay on The 15 next season.  Unless the Bucks make another move that means either Marshall or Wright will have to be cut before next season.

There are rumors that the Bucks are actively shopping Ilyasova and that teams are asking about Sanders.  If the Bucks move Ilyasova or Sanders now they are selling low though so I hope they hold onto both to see if they can improve next season to turn each into a tastier trade asset.  I don't feel that way about Mayo or Pachulia though so if the Bucks can move either of those guys without taking on more long-term guaranteed money, I am fine with that.  Don't hold your breath though because I have a better chance of joining the Bucks' front office than another NBA team being that gullible.

I hope you enjoyed my first installment of "The Good, The Mediocre, The Bad, & The Ugly" for this off-season for the Bucks.  I am hoping to be able to add "The Great" to the front of the name of the post and drop "The Mediocre, The Bad, & The Ugly"; but that is up to Hammond, Kidd, Edens, Lasry, or whomever is currently in charge of the Bucks.  If the Bucks make any more moves this off-season, make sure to check back in this space for full coverage.

Building The 25 - Brewers Trade for Outfielder Gerardo Parra

There were grumblings that Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin was trying to make a C.C. Sabathia-esque splash at the trade deadline to help the Brewers push The 25 to the next level.  David Price (formerly) of the Tampa Bay Rays was the C.C. Sabathia of this trade deadline given that both are dominate left-handed starting pitchers.  The only difference between 2014 Price and 2008 Sabathia are their contractual situations.  When the Brewers acquired Sabathia from the Cleveland Indians at the 2008 trade deadline, they knew it was a rental for just that season since Sabathia was due to become a free agent at the end of the season.  Conversely, Price is signed through next season so that increases his value slightly over 2008 Sabathia.

The Brewers gave up outfielder Michael Brantley, pitcher Rob Bryson, pitcher Zach Jackson and first-baseman Matt LaPorta to get Sabathia.  At the time LaPorta was the centerpiece of the trade but Michael Brantley (actually the "player to be named later" in the trade that is usually a short-list of guys that the Indians could choose from later) ended up being the best of the bunch.  Ultimately the Rays moved Price to the Detroit Tigers in a three-team deal that also involved the Seattle Mariners. The Rays got left-handed pitcher Drew Smyly and minor league infielder Willy Adames from the Tigers as well as infielder Nick Franklin from the Mariners.  The Mariners got center-fielder Austin Jackson from the Tigers.

Just to muddy the waters a little more, the compensation rules were slightly different when the Brewers acquired Sabathia than they are now, which increased Sabathia's value despite the fact that the Brewers knew there was a 1% chance that Sabathia would re-sign with them.  All the Brewers had to do after the season was tender Sabathia a one-year, qualifying offer so they would at least get draft pick compensation for "losing" Sabathia to free agency.  There was virtually no chance that Sabathia was going to accept a one-year offer given how much he could command on the free agent market so the qualifying offer was always a farce.

Ultimately Sabathia signed an eight-year, $186 million contract with the New York Yankees and the Brewers got 39th pick in the 2009 MLB Draft as compensation, which they used to select outfielder Kentrail Davis.  Right now Davis is stuck in Double-A, which is disappointing given his draft status.  Unless Davis can pick things up in the next year, I do not see him as a part of the long-terms plans at the big league level for the Brewers.  That trick to get draft pick compensation is no longer an option under the new collective bargaining agreement.  In order to get draft pick compensation under the new CBA, a player has to be on The 25 for at least one season.  That means the Tigers will get draft pick compensation if they lose Price after next season but the Brewers would not have gotten draft pick compensation if they lost Sabathia in 2014 like they did in 2008.

Instead of making a splash, Melvin made a slight ripple when he acquired outfielder Gerardo Parra from the Arizona Diamondbacks for minor-leaguers Anthony Banda (left-handed pitcher) and Mitch Haniger (outfielder).  Although Parra has struggled offensively this season hitting just .259, he is two-time Gold Glove winner so we know he can field his position.  Parra also gives the Brewers a left-handed bat in the outfield that they desperately need since each of their starters (Kris Davis, Carlos Gomez, and Ryan Braun) hits from the right side.  In terms of Parra's contract situation, the Brewers have him under team control through 2015 if they like but if Parra declines that tender after the 2015 season and signs elsewhere, at least the Brewers can get draft pick compensation if they tender him for the next two seasons.

In terms of what the Brewers gave up, Hainger is clearly the better of the two prospects.  The Brewers drafted Hainger 38th overall in the 2012 MLB Draft and is one of the better prospects in their somewhat disappointing farm system. So far Hainger has been alright hitting .255 in Double-A this season.  This trade finally allows the Diamondbacks to get Banda.  Originally the Diamondbacks drafted Banda in the 33rd round of the 2011 MLB Draft but Banda did not sign so he entered the 2012 MLB Draft and the Brewers took Banda in the 10th round of that draft.  So far Banda has been decent in 2014 posting a 3.66 ERA in Single-A so far this season.

Hainger projects as a utility outfielder while Banda does not project as anything better than a left-handed reliever so that doesn't seem like too much to give up to get a legitimate 4th outfielder, especially since their current 4th outfielder Logan Schafer is batting a measly .183 this season.  Plus, current starting left-fielder Kris Davis is hitting just .232 against right-handers while Parra is hitting .271 against right handers so I see the Brewers platooning Davis and Parra the rest of 2014 with Davis starting against left-handers and Parra starting against right-handers.

If Melvin just held onto outfielder Nori Aoki instead of trading him for left-hander Will Smith, there would have been no need to acquire Parra.  At the time of the Aoki/Smith trade I hated it but given how well Smith has pitched this year out of the bullpen, the Aoki/Smith trade does not look as bad now as I thought it would.  Landing Parra is not a Sabathia-esque acquisition but clearly the asking price for Price (no pun intended) was too high for the Brewers given that their farm system is so devoid of high-end talent that I am not even sure they could have made the Rays a legitimate offer for Price.  Truthfully it is just nice to see the Brewers in a pennant race and thus buyers at the trade deadline instead of sellers.

Although training camp is starting for the Green Bay Packers so I will have a ton of Packers posts, I will do my best to post more on the Brewers thru the end of the season given that they are in the midst of one of the most pleasantly surprising seasons in the last decade as they make a legitimate run at winning the N.L. Central and making the playoffs for the first time since 2011.

Building The 53 - The Last Three Roster Spots

Welcome to the third and final installment of my look at the current roster for the 2014 Green Bay Packers heading into the start of training camp this weekend.  As I said earlier this week there are 35 locks* and 15 players that will most likely* make The 53.  That leave just three spots truly up for grabs, which is five less than last year.

Although the Packers usually keep a few undrafted rookie free agents (think Andy Mulumba), it is too hard to tell what players are going to emerge since training camp has not started.  Here are my pre-training camp rankings within each position (best to worst) for the rest of the current roster:

Quarterback: Chase Rettig
Running Back: Michael Hill, Rajon Neal, and LaDarius Perkins
Fullback: Ina Liaina
Wide Receiver: Jeff Janis, Kevin Dorsey, Myles White, Alex Gillett, Chris Harper, and Gerrard Sheppard
Tight End: Jake Stoneburner, Colt Lyerla, and Justin Perillo
Offensive Tackle: Aaron Adams, John Fullington, and Jeremy Vujnovich
Offensive Guard: Lane Taylor, Andrew Tiller, and Jordan McCray
Center: Garth Gerhart
Defensive End: Jerel Worthy, Luther Robinson and Carlos Gray
Defensive Tackle: Mike Pennel
Middle Linebacker: Sam Barrington, Jake Doughty, and Joe Thomas
Outside Linebacker: Andy Mulumba, Nate Palmer, Jayrone Elliott, Adrian Hubbard, and Korey Jones
Cornerback: Demetri Goodson, Jumal Rolle, Ryan White, and Antonio Dennard
Safety: Chris Banjo, Charles Clay, and Tanner Miller

Lots of things can change throughout the preseason but my current advice would be to keep Jeff Janis, Andy Mulumba, and Lane Taylor.  Check back as the preseason plays out for my continued thoughts on Building The 53.

Building The 53 - The Most Likelies*

Yesterday I gave you my 35 locks* to make The 53.  I think there are 15 guys that will most likely* make The 53, which is down from 18 last year, but that is because there are eight more locks* for The 53 this year over last season.

Just to reiterate, you may have noticed the asterisk in the title and throughout this post.  I put that there because if any of the following guys suffer a season ending injury during training camp (knocking on wood as I type), the Packers will place them on injured reserve so they would not make The 53 but still would be in the team's long-term plans.  Absent a season ending injury, here are the 15 most likelies* to make The 53:

Quarterback: Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien

Running Back: DuJuan Harris

Fullback: John Kuhn
Wide Receiver: Jared Abbrederis
Tight End: Ryan Taylor
Offensive Tackle: Derek Sherrod
Offensive Guard: None

Center: Corey Linsley

Defensive End: None
Defensive Tackle: Letroy Guion
Middle Linebacker: Jamari Lattimore
Outside Linebacker: Nick Perry and Carl Bradford
Cornerback: Davon House and Jarrett Bush
Safety: Sean Richardson

Specialist: None

That means absent injury, there are really only three roster spots up for grabs.  Check back tomorrow for my initial thoughts on the disposition of those final three roster spots.

Building The 53 - The Locks*

As training camp opens this weekend for the 2014 Green Bay Packers, much like I did last year, I am going to run a three-part series of looking at how I think The 53 will shake out before the start of training camp.  This marks my second in-depth look at The 53 following my first look in mid-May, which came a little more than a week after the 2014 NFL Draft.

The first installment are the locks* currently on the roster.  The reason all of the guys I am about to list are are locks* stems from one of three reasons.  One, they recently signed a huge contract extension (i.e. wide receiver Jordy Nelson).  Two, they were recently drafted in an early round of the NFL Draft (i.e. safety Ha Ha Clinton Dix).  Three, they are solid starters (i.e. middle linebacker A.J. Hawk) at an important position.

You may have noticed the asterisk following locks.  I put that there because if any of the following guys suffer a season ending injury during training camp (knocking on wood as I type), the Packers will place them on injured reserve so they would not make The 53 but still would be in the team's long-term plans.  Absent a season ending injury, here are the 35 locks*, up from just 27 last season, to make The 53:

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers

Running Back: Eddie Lacy and James Starks

Fullback: None

Wide Receiver: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jarrett Boykin, and Davante Adams
Tight End: Andrew Quarless, Brandon Bostick, and Richard Rodgers

Offensive Tackle: Bryan Bulaga, David Bakhtiari, and Don Barclay
Offensive Guard: Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang
Center: JC Tretter

Defensive End: Datone Jones, Josh Boyd, and Khyri Thornton

Defensive Tackle: B.J. Raji and Mike Daniels
Middle Linebacker: A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones
Outside Linebacker: Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, and Mike Neal
Cornerback: Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Casey Hayward

Safety: Morgan Burnett, Micah Hyde, and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix

Specialists: Mason Crosby (K), Tim Masthay (P), and Brett Goode (LS)

That leaves 18 roster spots up for grabs.  Check back tomorrow for my list of guys "most likely" to make The 53.