Monday, April 7, 2014

Building The 53 - The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly 2.0

The 2014 NFL off-season is turning out to be one of the most active of Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson's tenure.  Thompson followed up the Julius Peppers signing last week by adding another former NFC North foe when he signed former Minnesota defensive tackle Letroy Guion to a one-year, $1 million contract with $100,000 guaranteed.  Slowly but surely Thompson is building the defensive portion of The 53 to be the most versatile of his tenure.  Here is my second look at Thompson's performance so far this off-season.

The Good
Despite the fact that Thompson is spending money like a drunken sailor compared to previous off-season, the Packers will always be predominately built through the NFL Draft.  The NFL recently awarded the compensatory picks for teams that lost free agents following the 2012 season for the 2014 NFL Draft.  The Packers got an extra 3rd round pick (98th overall) for losing wide receiver Greg Jennings to the Minnesota Vikings (signed a five-year, $45 million deal with $17.8 million guaranteed) and a 5th round pick (176th overall) for losing outside linebacker Erik Walden to the the Indianapolis Colts (signed a four-year, $16 million deal with $8 million guaranteed).  I would say the Packers won big-time by letting both guys leave because not only did they both sign what look like a above market deals relative to their skill sets but the Packers can use the salary cap space that would have been allocated to overpaying both guys to invest in better, younger players.  Even better, Thompson gets two extra picks in one of the deepest drafts in the last decade for showing fiscal restraint.

I seem to be in the minority with this viewpoint but as the market for pass rushers continues to shake out, I continue to think the Peppers deal looks like a steal.  The Packers only committed $7.5 million in guaranteed money to Peppers while the Bears signed former Viking Jared Allen to a four-year, $32 million deal with $15.5 million guaranteed.  The Peppers contract is worth a maximum of $26 million over three years not $30 million as was originally reported.  Given the versatility that Peppers gives the Packers to play defensive end or outside linebacker, I would much rather have Peppers than Allen despite the fact that Allen is a few years younger than Peppers.  That is even before you compare the money and years committed to each player.  Although the Packers are scheduled to pay Peppers slightly more on an annual basis ($8.67 million for three years) than the Bears are paying Allen ($8 million for four years), the Packers have much less guaranteed money invested in Peppers than the Bears do in Allen.  Clearly Peppers is not the second coming of Reggie White but he does give the Packers a defensive weapon they sorely lacked last season.

Currently the best front seven defensive players signed for 2014 are: outside linebacker Clay Matthews, Peppers, defensive lineman B.J. Raji, defensive lineman Mike Daniels, middle linebacker A.J. Hawk, defensive end/outside linebacker Mike Neal, and middle linebacker Brad Jones.  The Packers also have some interesting backups in defensive lineman Josh Boyd, Guion, defensive lineman Datone Jones, outside linebacker Nick Perry, and defensive lineman Jerel Worthy.  There is no question that the Packers have a number of versatile pass rushers, which hopefully will allow them to pressure the quarterback and create turnovers that were borderline non-existent last season.

Sometimes the deals you don't sign are the best deals of all.  The Cincinnati Bengals signed underwhelming guard/tackle Marshall Newhouse to a one-year, $805,000 contract with $50,000 guaranteed.  The Newhouse signing feels a little bit like when the Bengals signed former Packer tight end Donald Lee.  Let's just say the Packers did not miss Lee one iota, which I already know will be the same feeling for Newhouse given how much he regressed last season.

Same goes for defensive lineman C.J. Wilson.  I was very high on Wilson at the beginning of 2013 but as the season progressed, Wilson's playing time diminished.  Ultimately former Packer front-office member and current Oakland Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie signed Wilson to a one-year, $795,000 contract with $65,000 guaranteed.  It makes senses to let Wilson leave because he would have been one of the oldest defensive lineman on The 53, yet he would have been no higher than 7th or 8th on the depth chart.

Moving onto another underwhelming former Packer.  Even though safety M.D. Jennings started all 16 games for the Packers last season and was a restricted free agent, the Packers decided not to tender him.  Before the Packers signed Peppers, the Chicago Bears signed the much maligned Jennings to a one-year, $745,000 contract.  For most people Jennings will always be remembered as the guy that helped end the NFL ref lockout thanks to the Monday Night Football "Fail Mary" in Week 4 of the 2012 NFL season but I think of Jennings routinely missing tackles or getting beat deep.  You can surmise that I am actually happy Jennings signed with a divisional rival because it will allow the Packers to exploit him if he actually play meaningful snaps for the Bears  The one-year deal Jennings signed with the Bears is a pittance in NFL terms but with how much Jennings struggled last season, I would rather see the Packers draft Ha-Ha Clinton Dix or Calvin Pryor if they are available in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft.  If the Packers fail to land a quality safety in the draft, they should give Micah Hyde a look at safety but also make sure Chris Banjo and Sean Richarson are ready as well.

The Bad
Besides Wilson, McKenzie recently signed two other players with ties to the Packers.  McKenzie signed wide receiver James Jones to a three-year, $10 million contract with $3.7 guaranteed in 2014 but nothing in 2015 or 2016.  After McKenzie signed Jones, he signed cornerback/safety Charles Woodson to a one-year, $3.5 million contract.  Woodson is one of my favorite Packers of all-time and while my affinity for Jones is not as high, I do appreciate the toughness he gave the Packers despite his occasionally shaky hands.

The Packers look to have a fair amount of depth at wide receiver in Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Jarrett Boykin but all three are due new contracts sooner rather than later given that Boykin is a restricted free agent after 2014 while Nelson and Cobb are set to become unresticted free agents after 2014.  Hopefully Thompson is going to allocate the money that could have gone to Jones to locking down that trip long-term.

Following last season cornerback Tramon Williams, the only member of the secondary over the age of 30, said the defense needed to add some veterans.  That seemed very unlikely given Thompson's desire to choose younger guys ahead of older guys.  Thompson veered from his usual strategy when he signed Peppers and could have continued to improve the defense by adding Woodson.  Instead Woodson resigned with the Raiders for what could be his last season in the NFL.  Ultimately the decision not to bring back Woodson is even more curious than letting Jones go, especially given that Woodson would be a perfect mentor for the young Packers secondary.

Thompson passed on Jones and Woodson but signed oft-injured running back James Starks to a two-year, $3.25 million contract with $750,000 guaranteed.  I know that Starks was instrumental in the playoff run that resulted in the Packers winning Super Bowl XLV but the Packers did not have the running back quartet of Eddie Lacy, Jonathan Franklin, DuJuan Harris, and Michael Hill on The 53 in 2010.  Sure Franklin and Harris are coming off serious injuries but everyone besides Hill are borderline locks for The 53 so I am shocked that Thompson invested that type of money in Starks.  The Starks signing leaves the Packers with more NFL caliber running backs than wide receivers.  Instead of signing Starks, I wish Thompson would have allocated that money to Jones or Woodson.

Thankfully the Starks signing did not dissuade Thompson from resigning fullback John Kuhn.  Thompson signed Kuhn to a one-year, $1 million contract with $100,000 guaranteed.  There is no question that Kuhn brings a ton of intangibles to The 53 given that he has a such a positive locker room presence.  I've been critical of Kuhn in the past but more of that was due to the fact that the Packers overpaid Kuhn $7.6 million from 2011-13.  In terms of on-field contributions, not only is Kuhn a quality special teams contributor, but he made the two biggest blocks of the 2013 season: Lacy's 60-yard run against the Cowboys and Rodgers-to-Cobb to beat the Bears.  When you put it all together, Kuhn is finally cost-effective member of The 53 at $1 million in 2014.

The Packers did not make a strong strong push to resign 2013 starting center Evan Dietrich-Smith so it looks like they are going to give JC Tretter the first chance to win the starting center job in 2014.  Recently the Packers hosted veteran center/guard Mike McGlynn.  Ultimately McGlynn signed a modest two-year, $2.7 million contract with just $200,000 guaranteed with the Washington Redskins.  I am fine with giving Tretter a chance to winning the starting center job but given how cheap it was to sign McGlynn it seems foolish that Thompson did not sign McGynn as a cost-effective insurance policy as a backup guard/center.

The Ugly
Last week tight end Jermicahel Finley worked out for the Seattle Seahawks and apparently failed his physical.  Later reports surfaced that Finley will not be ready for football action for "months", which is after the 2014 NFL Draft.  The Packers have a number of tight ends under contract for 2014: Brandon Bostick, Andrew Quarless, Jake Stoneburner, Ryan Taylor, and Raymond Webber.  When healthy, Finley is the far and away the most dangerous receiver of the group just discussed.

The jury is still out on Stoneburner and Webber.  Taylor is a special teams standout but has not shown much on offense.  That means the Packers have high hopes for Bostick and Quarless.  Thompson just resigned Quarless to a two-year, $3 million contract with $350,000 guaranteed.  Of all the tight ends just mentioned, Bostick has the most potential to be a Finley-esque tight end but needs to stay healthy long enough to validate the so far unfulfilled promise.  Fortunately everyone besides Quarless is on essentially a rookie minimum contract so the Packers do not have that much money invested in the position.  The Packers hosted former Wisconsin Badgers tight end Owen Daniels for a visit but allowed him to sign with the Baltimore Ravens for a one-year, $1 million contract for 2014.  Despite having so many tight ends under contract and Finley's status up in the air, I expect Thompson to use a fairly high pick on a tight end in the 2014 NFL Draft.

That leaves the Packers with six unrestricted free agents that were members of The 53 in 2013: Finley, quarterback Matt Flynn, linebacker Robert Francois, defensive lineman Johnny Jolly, defensive lineman Ryan Pickett, and quarterback Seneca Wallace.  If Finley can prove that he is healthy, he is the only guy that will command an expensive long-term deal that I totally support the Packers offering.  The rest of the guys are one-year, veteran minimum guys at this point so here are my rankings for most to least important: Flynn, Jolly, Pickett, Francois, and Wallace.

Since Guion (Vikings) and Peppers (Bears) were cut by the team they played for in 2013, they will not factor into what compensatory picks the Packers receive for the 2015 NFL Draft.  As it stands right now, it looks like the Packers are in line for a few late-round compensatory picks since so far this off-season they've lost EDS, Jones, Newhouse, and Wilson.  If I had to guess right now, I see the Packers getting a fifth and seventh round compensatory pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.

No matter what happens between now and the 2014 NFL Draft, I plan to roll out a huge "preview" of how I would approach the draft if I was Thompson at the end of April and the beginning of May.  I still see a few moves on the horizon for Thompson ahead of the draft, if Thompson does in fact make any moves, make sure to check back for full coverage

Thursday, April 3, 2014

Building The 23 - USMNT 2.0 for 2014 World Cup

Yesterday the United States Men's National Team tied Mexico 2-2 in a friendly played at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.  The USMNT jumped out to a 2-0 lead as cheers of Dos a Cero Chants rang through the stadium.  Unfortunately the USMNT sputtered in second half conceding two goals so it ended up being Dos a Dos.

Although the United States and Mexico are bitter CONCACAF rivals, ultimately the scoreline is meaningless given that it is only a friendly and thus simply a means to help prepare for the 2014 World Cup.  This match could carry much more symbolic significance though.  Landon Donovan and Julian Green both got subbed into the match in the second half at the same time.  Donovan will likely go down as the most successful USMNT player of all-time while the 18-year old Green has limitless potential that could make him the next Donovan for the USMNT.  The USMNT are lucky to have Green in the fold given that he had the choice to play for Germany or the United States and choose the United States.  Since Green plays for Bayern Munich's youth team it was a bit of a surprise that he choose the United States since Green choose the United States, he has a much better chance to go to the 2014 World Cup.  If Green choose Germany he would have no chance of going to the 2014 World Cup and an outside chance of appearing for Germany in the 2016 European Championship.

I gave my first look at the 23 players I thought USMNT manager Jurgen Klinsmann would take to the 2014 World Cup in Brazil the day after the United States was drawn into the "Group of Death" with Germany, Ghana, and Portugal.  As I said in that post, Building The 23 for the USMNT is similar to what I do with Building The 53 for the Green Bay Packers, Building The 25 for the Milwaukee Brewers, and Building The 15 for the Milwaukee Bucks.

Just to reiterate, the breakdown of The 23 is usually 3 goalkeepers, 8 defenders, 8 midfielders, and 4 strikers.  Besides goalkeeper, some of the players drawn into defense or up front could also slide into the midfielder so those are not hard and fast numbers.  Here are my updated thoughts about the players Klinsmann should select for The 23.

Goalkeepers (3): Tim Howard, Brad Guzan, and Nick Rimando.
Starter: Tim Howard
Analysis: This is the most solid spot on the entire squad.  Guzan would start for at least half of the countries in the World Cup but absent injury will have to serve as Howard's understudy.

Defenders (8): DaMarcus Beasley, Matt Besler, John Brooks, Geoff Cameron, Brad Evans, Omar Gonzalez, Clarence Goodson, and Fabian Johnson
Dropped (1): Steve Cherundolo
Added (1): Fabian Johnson* (treated as midfielder last time)
Starters: DaMarcus Beasley (LB), Matt Besler (CB), Geoff Cameron (CB), Fabian Johnson (RB)
Analysis: Unfortunately Cherundolo is just not fit enough to play in the 2014 World Cup, which opens up the right back spot for the first time in essentially a decade.  Besler was a revelation a year ago but his star has faded slightly but the lack of depth at central defender for the United States, I still see Besler as a virtual lock for the starting lineup.  That leaves seven guys fighting for three spots.  I honestly could see almost any of those seven starting across the back for the USMNT, so it will be interesting to see what there can separate themselves from the group.

Midfielders (8): Kyle Beckerman, Michael Bradley, Brad Davis, Mix Diskerud, Landon Donovan, Julian Green, Jermaine Jones, and Graham Zusi
Dropped (2): Fabian Johnson* (treated as a midfielder last time but moved to defender this time) and Brek Shea
Added (2): Brad Davis and Julian Green
Starters: Kyle Beckerman (DM), Michael Bradley (CM), Jermaine Jones (CM), Graham Zusi (LW/RW)
Analysis: The USMNT is in a unique spot because Beckerman and Jones look to be redundant central midfielders that can allow Bradley to push forward.  Given Klinsman's affinity for Jones, I could see him playing all three as central midfielders since he likes to see his outside defenders push forward.  That leaves Zusi as the only true winger unless the other midfielders that I currently have on the bench can separate from the pack.

Forwards (4): Jozy Altidore, Clint Dempsey, Aaron Johnannson, and Chris Wondolowski
Dropped (1): Eddie Johnson
Added (1): Chris Wondolowski
Starters: Jozy Altidore and Clint Dempsey
Analysis: It will be interesting to watch the competition for the fourth striker spot given that Altidore, Dempsey, and Johannson look like locks.  Over the last two years Wondolowski has scored some important goals for the United States, which is why I added Wondolowski instead of Johnson.

Klinsman will announce his provisional 30-man squad in mid-May.  Those 30 players will participate in a two week training session that includes a couple exhibition matches before Klinsman must winnow his roster down to The 23 by June 2nd.  Make sure to check back in mid-May for my thoughts on Klinsman's provisional 30-man squad.

Monday, March 31, 2014

The 25 - 0 Down and 162 (& hopefully more) to Go

For those new to this space, The 25 is much like The 53 posts that I do for the Green Bay Packers or The 15 posts that I do for the Milwaukee Bucks.  For each iteration of the post throughout the season I rank the trade value of the entire active roster based on age, contract, health, and reasonable expected future performance.  Instead of writing a short blurb about each player, I will focus on a few with the most interesting changes since the last post.  Basically this post is meant to help Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin properly value his assets for potential trades while simultaneously shinning light the biggest needs on The 25.

If that seems too abstract let me go over a simple example.  Right fielder Ryan Braun is probably the most talented player on The 25 despite coming off a 65-game suspension for use of performance enhancing drugs (PED's).  When you factor in Braun's mega contract and age, there are actually other players on The 25 that are more desirable to the other 29 MLB general managers so that is why he is not ranked number one.  Without further adu, here are my initial rankings of The 25 of the Brewers in 2014:

Player Rankings
1. Jean Segura (SS)
2. Carlos Gomez (CF)
3. Jonathan Lucroy (C)
4. Ryan Braun (RF)
5. Kyle Lohse (RSP)
6. Yovani Gallardo (RSP)
7. Matt Garza (RSP)
8. Wily Peralta (RSP)
9. Tyler Thornburg (RSP)
10. Scooter Gennett (2B)
11. Marco Estrada (RSP)
12. Khris Davis (LF)
13. Jim Henderson (RRP)
14.
Will Smith (LRP)
15. Brandon Kintzler (RRP)
16. Aramis Ramirez (3B)
17. Wei-Chung Wang (RRP)
18. Logan Schafer (LF)
19. Mark Reynolds (1B)
20. Francisco Rodriguez (RRP)
21. Zach Duke (LRP)
22. Martin Maldonado (C)
23. Jeff Bianchi (3B)
24. Lyle Overbay (1B)
25. Rickie Weeks (2B)
Disabled List
1. Tom Gorzelanny (LRP, 15-DL)
#1) Jean Segura (SS): Melvin is going to look back at Opening Day 2014 as the start of the official count down to Segura's exit from Milwaukee.  Melvin and Segura's agent discussed an extension but apparently were so far off that negotiations brown down right after they started.  The Atlanta Braves recently signed shortstop Andrelton Simmons to a seven-year, $58 million contract.  That is a little rich compared to what Segura should command but is at least a relevant data point for the negotiations.  I actually don't understand Melvin's thinking given that the the first long-term contract extension for young studs (e.g. Tampa Bay Rays third basemen Evan Longoria's six-year, $17 million contract with three years and $30 million in rolling guarantees with a $3 million buyout to stretch it to a ridiculously affordable nine-year, $47 million contract or Braun's initial eight-year, $45 million contract) are NOT financially crippling. The Brewers should get Segura locked up long-term on the cheap(er) now but proceed cautiously on his second long-term extension because that one can be a back breaker (e.g. Braun's five-year, $105 million extension).

#4) Ryan Braun (RF): We know that Braun tested positive for the use of some performance enhancing drug in the same season he was voted the N.L. MVP.  Braun fought the positive results and ultimately pulled the reverse Al Capone. We know Braun was ultimately suspended but the specifics of why Braun was suspended for 65-games is still not completely flushed out given that he apparently negotiated a shorter suspension.  That worked out well for Braun since last season he was scheduled to earn $8.5 million before his 65-game suspension so he lost out on $3.4 million (65/162 * $8.5 million) but returns to the field this season when his salary jumps to $10 million before going to $12 million in 2015.

I am sure fans will cheer Braun in the home opener and sanctimonious baseball writers, the same ones that blindly covered the Bonds/Sosa/McGwire PED fueled home-run era with kid gloves, will decry Brewers fans as stupid.  I am torn on this one because if Braun wasn't so indignant when he won his PED suspension appeal, I might cut him some slack but the way he savagely attacked the sample collector is unforgivable to me.

Plus Braun roped in Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers into backing his "innocence".  Since then, Rodgers severed his personal and professional (used to co-own 8-Twelve MVP Bar & Grill) ties with Braun.  The Brewers have Braun under contract through at least 2020 so let's hope the healing process can being today.  Hopefully if Braun can put up decent numbers while clean, at least that would allow the Brewers to get some assets in return for Braun but if Braun struggles sans PED's then Melvin has a potential franchise crippling contract on The 25 for almost a decade.

#10) Scooter Gennett (2B): Hopefully we are in the infancy of another home grown youth movement for the Brewers.  In the mid-to-late 2000's the Brewers graduated the likes of Braun, Prince Fielder, and Rickie Weeks from their farm system.  Since then, they failed to graduate an everyday player from the farm system that they drafted at any position besides catcher.  Gennett is gunning to replace the much maligned and overpaid Weeks, which is one of the last everyday players Melvin drafted and developed.  Besides Gennett, Melvin is placing tons of faith in left fielder Khris Davis to give the Brewers two graduates of their farm system via the draft as opening day starters for the first time since the late 2000's.

#17) Wei-Chung Wang (RRP): The most improbable member of The 25 went from pitching in single-A for the Pittsburgh Pirates last season to the majors this season.  Melvin selected Wang in the Rule 5 Draft, which means Wang has to stay on The 25 (or disable list) for the entire 2014 season or be sent back to the Pirates for half the amount the Brewers originally paid for Wang.  That condition on Wang's contract with the associated "buy-out" for sending him back to the Pirates makes it seem like he did not earn his spot on The 25 but in spring training Wang posted a 3.86 ERA to earn his spot on The 25 irrespective of the conditions of his contract.

I am not a huge fan of making broad season predictions, especially in baseball because teams evolve throughout the lengthy season, but for some reason I have a good feeling about the Brewers this season.  I am not ready to guarantee they will make the playoffs but I think it is more likely than not that they make the post-season for just the 5th time in 46 seasons and the first time since 2011.

For those lucky enough to attend Opening Day as the Brewers host the Braves, enjoy.  Make sure to check back in this space for regular coverage of the front office moves by Melvin throughout the season.

Sunday, March 23, 2014

I Went There - "Third" Round of the 2014 NCAA Tournament in Milwaukee

With all due respect to what is now the "First Round" of the NCAA Tournament in Dayton, OH that allows Father-In-Law-Cheese to see NCAA Tournament games every year, the NCAA really bungled the nomenclature when they made the play-in games the "First Round".  Whenever the artist formerly known as the opening rounds of the NCAA Tournament are in the Midwest, my buddy Sug and I make sure to attend the games.  Normally we attend four weekday games all in one day on either Thursday or Friday with the winner of those four games meeting for two games on the weekend on either Saturday or Sunday.  This year the "Second and Third Rounds" were in Milwaukee.  Due to work commitments we were only able to attend the "Third Round" weekend session of Michigan v. Texas and Wisconsin v. Oregon.

Last time we went to the NCAA Tournament at the Bradley Center in 2010 we went with Sug's older brother David that played basketball at Wisconsin.  David brought one of his former teammates.  The guys in their late 30's that sat in front of us thought that David's friend was Ron Dayne so they started trying to take pictures on the sly.  It was high comedy when we caught those guys sending pictures messages to their friends midway through the first of four games of the day, which gave us tons of comedic fodder for the rest of the day.  Oh and that weekend is when I became convinced that Xavier's Jordan Crawford could be come an irrational confidence bench guy on an NBA playoff team.

The NCAA Tournament always has great stories lines and this year in Milwaukee was no exception.  Yesterday Marquette head basketball coach Buzz Williams resigned to take the same position at Virigina Tech so I gave Marquette my thoughts on how they should replace Buzz.  Marquette missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time under Buzz while Wisconsin was a two seed playing on Marquette's home court.  Mama Cheese, Sug, E-Dogg, E-Dogg's father Tom, David, David's wife, and Sug/David's Mom went to the game.  Unfortunately Papa Cheese was unable to join us because he is in the middle of tax season. We had seats right at mid court in the upper deck, 10 rows up.  The seats were great, I would venture to say they are better than 50% of the lower bowl seats.  The first game pitted Michigan against Texas.  I thought more Michigan fans would make the trip to Milwaukee for the games but other than their allotted seats, Michigan didn't seem to have any more fans that Texas or Oregon.

The only real notable thing from the Michigan/Texas game was how many times they showed former Milwaukee Buck Big
Dog on the jumbo tron.  Big Dog's son, Glenn Robinson III, is currently a sophomore at Michigan.  There is no doubt that Little Dog can be a scorer in the NBA but based on the few games I've seen him play, unlike his father, it looks he is actually capable of playing defense.  Big Dog seemed none to thrilled to keep getting plastered on the jumbo tron since he was there to watch his son player in the NCAA Tournament.  As I stared up at the rafters of the seven retired Bucks numbers, it got me thinking about whether Big Dog's #13 should be raised to the rafters.  I understand Kareem and Big O but would actually take Big Dog ahead of the rest.  I am not sure we will ever see #13 raised to the rafters but would support the decision given all the others numbers that the franchise retired.  Check that, let's put Junior Bridgeman ahead of Big Dog as well only because there are rumors that he is going to take some ownership interest in the Bucks soon.  Since I aspire to be the general manager of one of the three major Cheesehead professional sports teams, I might as well get a jump start on kissing up to my potential future boss.  All kidding aside, if you want to understand why the Bucks have been such a frustrating franchise to follow for most of my lifetime, look no further than their seven retired jerseys.  The last guy to have his jersey retired played for the Bucks in 1989.

Sorry for that tangent, ultimately Michigan defeated Texas in a mostly forgettable game to clear the court for the Wisconsin/Oregon nightcap.  Wisconsin was the second seed in the West regional while the Oregon "Fighting" Ducks were the 7th seed.  Oregon always has interesting uniforms since Nike founder Phil Knight is an Oregon grad.  The incarnation they wore against the Badgers was fairly tame but they had "Fighting" plastered across the top, which puzzled me the entire game because I am not sure exactly what a "Fighting" Ducks is but I know that is not threatening in the least, especially since the mascot looks drunk as opposed to menacing.  Wisconsin had an uneven first half performance that saw them somehow only trail 40-35 with two minutes to play till Oregon hit back-to-back threes en route a 49-37 lead at the half.

Badger fans headed to the concession stands to drown their sorrows in over-priced crappy food and soda.  I love that Marquette serves beer during home games at the Bradley Center but when the NCAA Tournament comes to town, unless you are in a luxury box, no drinks are legally served.  Since Sug and I were heading back to Chicago after the game, we decided not to sneak in booze to the game.  That was probably the first time since the first session we ever attended in Indianapolis in 2003 when we found out the hard way that the NCAA does not sell booze at games even in venues not on college campuses.  Ever since we've done our best to have drinks in hand despite the odd, arbitrary alcohol lines in the sand the NCAA draws.

As if not being able to drink was punishment enough, the only TV's that were showed the other tournament games were 1980's-style 14" square TV's.  A couple hundred of my closest friends huddled around those TV's squinting to try to make senses of what we thought we were watching.  Luckily for me I stumbled upon the Syracuse/Dayton game with a few minutes left.  Syracuse was a three seed while UD was an 11 seed.

As I mentioned earlier, I have a soft spot in my heart for UD given that Father-In-Law-Cheese loves them as much as I love the Packers.  It was hard to see the grainy picture since I was 20 feet from the TV's but just being around so many people blindly cheering for the underdog was amazing.  Despite UD's Jordan Sibert turning the ball over with 14 seconds to play and a couple UD players missing some crucial free throws down the stretch, UD still lead Syracuse by two points with less than 10 seconds to play.  Likely Top 10 pick in the 2014 NBA Draft Tyler Ennis got the ball for Syracuse and pushed it to get a fairly good look at a three point attempt with time running out that thankfully rimmed out to give UD an improbable win.  That lead to In-Law-Cheese, Cheesehead Chick, and me trading a ton of jubilant text messages the rest of the evening.

That good mojo carried over into Wisconsin's performance in the second half as they quickly trimmed their 12 point deficit to one just point in less than five minutes into the second half thanks to the trio of Traevon Jackson, Josh Gasser, and Frank Kaminsky.  Just a few minutes later when Wisconsin took the lead the Bradley Center was the loudest I've heard it since the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals.  At that point it looked like Wisconsin was going to cruise to an easy victory till their shooting went cold.  Wisconsin actually trailed 75-74 with just over a minute to play.  Thankfully shooting guard Ben Brust, the guy with the most made three-point shots in program history, made the biggest one of the bunch to put Wisconsin up for good at 77-75 en route to an impressive 85-77 win.

You can make an argument that even though Wisconsin only plays 7.5 guys a game, their seven regulars are the best top to bottom of head coach Bo Ryan's tenure. I know I gave an abbreviate game recap but notice I didn't mention small forward Sam Dekker or Nigel Hayes.  Neither guy had a great game but if Dekker declares for the 2014 NBA Draft I bet he goes in the first round while Hayes has a chance to be the best NBA prospect during Ryan's tenure.  Thanks to their win over the "Fighting" Ducks, the Badgers punched their ticket to the Sweet 16 where they will face the winner of 3rd seeded Creighton and 6th seeded Baylor in Anaheim, CA on Thursday night.

As Wisconsin beat Oregon, another Cheesehead college team was making headlines as well.  Wisconsin-Whitewater was down one point to Williams College with less than five second to play but still won on an impressive drive by Quardell Young to win the NCAA Division III National Championship.  Wisconsin's win over Oregon was probably the most entertaining Wisconsin game I've even seen in-person but still pales in comparison to the impressive wins by Dayton and UW-Whitewater.  I know it is cliche to say but the games just discussed all happened in one night of March, which is why so many people love March Madness.

Saturday, March 22, 2014

My Advice for How to Fill Marquette's Coaching Vacancy

Marquette Warriors head coach Buzz Williams resigned to accept the same job at Virginia Tech.  Seems like a million years ago that I broke down Buzz's last extension at Marquette that he ultimately broke to take the Virginia Tech job.  I've said many times in this space that I have a soft spot in my heart for Virginia Tech given that Sister-In-Law-Cheese will earn her PhD from Tech this spring but not sure giving Buzz a huge contract makes much senses.  Marquette missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time under Buzz.  In fact, Marquette had such an atrocious season that they even missed the NIT.  Usually coaches move onto new jobs when their program is on the up-swing not following the worst season of their tenure.

Marquette spends the most money per player of any college basketball program besides Duke, which ironically is where Sister-In-Law-Cheese is currently working on her post doctorate fellowship.  There is no argument that Buzz was very successful in his seven years in charge of Marquette.  Buzz coached in the NCAA Tournament every year besides this year, including three consecutive trips to the Sweet 16 and an Elite 8 appearance last year.  Even more impressive is how many NBA players Buzz churned our during his tenure.

Despite Buzz's success and all the money at his disposal at Marquette, there has long been tension between Buzz and the administrators.  Apparently there was a $2 million buyout clause in Buzz's contract that was reduced to $100,000 if there was no permanent athletic director in place.  Given that Bill Cords is serving as the Interim Vice President and Director of Athletics following the departure of Larry Williams, the window for Buzz to move was open.

Marquette is a basketball only school while Virginia Tech is a football school that happens to play basketball in the ACC.  Maybe Buzz will be able to make his model of supplementing big recruits with junior college transfers work at Tech but when you add it all up, I see Virginia Tech as a worse job than Marquette.  I have no inside knowledge but my only worry for Marquette is that Buzz left some potential NCAA violations behind in Milwaukee.  Whether that is true or not, I see three options for how Marquette can replace Buzz.

Early reports linked Marquette with former Pittsburgh and UCLA head coach Ben Howland and current UW-Green Bay coach Brian Wardle.  Both of those hires make senses for different reason.  Let's not forget that Kevin O'Neill, Tom Crean, and Buzz Williams were far from household names in their first year in charge of Marquette but all of those guys ultimately used the Marquette job as a stepping stone to a bigger program: O'Neill (Tennessee), Crean (Indiana), and Williams (Virginia Tech).

Unlike the guys that Marquette recently hired, Howland would give Marquette a "big name" coach right away.  Howland is 56 years old so this is most likely his last head coaching job but given that he coached at Pittsburgh and UCLA, his services will not come cheap.  The upshot of investing in Howland is that he will be able to land big-time high school recruits on day one.

With all due respect to Steve Novak and Robb Logterman, Wardle was arguably the most lethal shooter even at Marquette.  For those not familiar with the Marquette program, they have an inflated sense of where their program stands in the national landscape so they overvalue their own.  The question is whether that translates to recruiting on a national scale because Marquette's most recent success was due more to plucking useful junior college transfers than landing huge recruits.  Before Marquette hires Wardle they need to determine whether he can use his success on the court at Marquette to attract big-time high school recruits.

Door number three is a younger coach on the rise from a smaller school without a Marquette connection.  Let's leave aside guys like Shaka Smart at VCU because coaches like that could have left their current institutions for better jobs than Marquette in recent years but declined overtures to stay at their current post.  A few attainable names that come to mind are Archie Miller at the University of Dayton, Bryce Drew at Valparaiso University, Michael White at Louisiana Tech University, and Josh Pastner at the University of Memphis.  Given my love for UD because of Father-In-Law-Cheese, I hope Miller stays at UD so I will take him off the list even though he might be the most attractive option of the the four just mentioned.  If any of the other guys mentioned have a strong Roman Catholic faith, I would move them up the list since that will be enticing to Marquette alumni even though that most likely does not appeal to big-time high school recruits.

Did you see how I ended the last three paragraphs by discussing whether each coach could land big-time high school recruits? I know this sounds overly simplistic but given all the money spent on basketball by Marquette, as long as the program doesn't break any NCAA rules, they should be able to land big-time high school recruits even though some might do it sooner rather than later.

I presume Howland would be a better recruiter nationally than any of the younger coaches just discussed in the short-term but given that Marquette's program is currently in good shape, I am not sure how much that matters.  I could see Wardle coaching at Marquette for decades whereas Howland will be looking to retire in less than a decade and some of the younger names just discussed could use Marquette as stepping stone like O'Neil, Crean, and Buzz did previously.  Given that Wardle will have a cheaper price tag with the highest long-term upside, if I was in charge of hiring the next Marquette coach, I would hire Wardle.