Monday, January 6, 2014

The 53 - Packers Lose Home Playoff Game to 49ers

The Green Bay Packers hosted the San Francisco 49ers in the first round of the 2013 NFL Playoffs in front of 77,525 spectators at Lambeau Field.  The inactives for the Packers against the 49ers were: Chris Harper (WR, healthy scratch), Clay Matthews (OLB, broken thumb), Nate Palmer (LB, healthy scratch), Jumal Rolle (CB, healthy scratch), Lane Taylor (G, healthy scratch), Scott Tolzien (QB, healthy scratch), and JC Tretter (G, healthy scratch).

As we all know by now, the Packers fell to the 49ers on a last second field goal to end their season.  Since it is the last game of the season for the Packers, I will give a more traditional game review and my final rankings to The 53 (table blow).  I will not talk too much about long-term prospects for specific players on The 53 like I've done in previous reviews because starting tomorrow I am going to have a seven-part series of very specific advice for how Packers general manager Ted Thompson should approach The 53 for 2014.

Once upon a time the Green Bay Packers were 13-0 at home in the playoffs until 2001 when the Michael Vick lead Atlanta Falcons pummeled the Packers at Lambeau Field.  Including the loss to the Falcons and their loss last night to the 49ers, the Packers have now gone 3-5 at Lambeau Field with current Packers head coach Mike McCarthy just 2-3 at home in the playoffs.

Much like their recent playoff record at Lambeau Field, the Packers had a first quarter to forget.  The offense looked horrible going three-and-out on their first three drives.  The defense looked slightly better since they were able to hold the 49ers to two field goals, which meant that the Packers were only down 6-0 when they could have been down 14-0.  As if being down 6-0 at home in the playoffs is not bad enough, the Packers lost starting cornerback Sam Shields and outside linebacker Mike Neal for the rest of the game due to injury.

For how bad things went in the first quarter, the second quarter started off well as Packers cornerback Tramon Williams picked off 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick.  The interception gave the Packers offense the kick in the butt that they needed as they put together a great drive that ended with a touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to wide receiver Jordy Nelson to put the Packers up 7-6.  On the ensuing drive the 49ers marched down the field and scored easily on a 10-yard run by running back Frank Gore.  The biggest play on that drive was a 42-yard run by Kaepernick.  The Packers got the ball back with 2:38 to play in the half and despite horrible clock management, they were able to kick a field goal to go into halftime down 13-10.

The 53
1. Aaron Rodgers (QB, LR 1)
2. Clay Matthews (OLB, LR 2)
3. Randall Cobb (WR, LR 3)
4. Jordy Nelson (WR, LR 4)
5. Eddie Lacy (RB, LR 5)
6. Josh Sitton (G, LR 7)
7. Sam Shields (CB, LR 6)
8. T.J. Lang (G, LR 8)
9. James Jones (WR, LR 9)
10. Tramon Williams (CB, LR 10)
11. David Bakhtiari (T, LR 11)
12. Evan Dietrich-Smith (C, LR 12)
13. Morgan Burnett (S, LR 13)
14. Mike Daniels (DL, LR 14)
15. Micah Hyde (CB, LR 15)
16. B.J. Raji (DL, LR 16)
17. Davon House (CB, LR 24)
18. Jarrett Boykin (WR, LR 17)
19. Don Barclay (T, LR 18)
20. Datone Jones (DL, LR 22)
21. Nick Perry (OLB, LR 23)
22. A.J. Hawk (MLB, LR 19)
23. James Starks (RB, LR 20)
24. Brad Jones (MLB, LR 21)
25. Tim Masthay (P, LR 25)
26. Ryan Pickett (DL, LR 26)
27. Josh Boyd (DL, LR 29)
28. John Kuhn (FB, LR 28)
29. Andrew Quarless (TE, LR 27)
30. Mason Crosby (K, LR 30)
31. Mike Neal (DL/OLB, LR 31)
32. Jamari Lattimore (LB, LR 32)
33. Jarrett Bush (CB, LR 33)
34. Derek Sherrod (T, LR 34)
35. Jerel Worthy (DE, LR 35)
36. Sean Richardson (S, LR 36)
37. Brett Goode (LS, LR 37)
38. Andy Mulamba (LB, LR 38)
39. Matt Flynn (QB, LR 39)
40. M.D. Jennings (S, LR 40)
41. Ryan Taylor (TE, LR 41)
42. J.C. Tretter (C, LR 42)
43. C.J. Wilson (DL, LR 43)
44. Chris Banjo (S, LR 44)
45. Scott Tolzien (QB, LR 45)
46. Victor Aiyewa (LB, LR 46)
47. Jake Stoneburner (TE, LR 47)
48. Nate Palmer (LB, LR 48)
49. Lane Taylor (G, LR 49)
50. Chris Harper (WR, LR 50)
51. Marshall Newhouse (T, LR 51)
52. Kahlil Bell (RB, LR 52)
53.
The second half started with a whimper for both teams.  The 49ers received the ball but could not move it effectively so they were forced to punt.  The Packers returned the favor followed by the 49ers and Packers trading punts on three consecutive possessions.  With just over three minutes left in the 3rd quarter the Packers got the ball for the third time in the half.  As the drive spilled into the 4th quarter, thanks to an amazing escape by Rodgers, he was able to find wide receiver Randall Cobb for a 26-yard gain.  On the next play the Packers lost rookie left tackle David Bakhtiari to a concussion.  Despite having to put in the underwhelming Marshall Newhouse on the next play, Packers fullback John Kuhn scored on a one-yard run and attempted the worst Lambeau Leap in team history.  Even though Bakhtiari was going through the concussion protocol, he forced his way back on the field for the extra point to put the Packers up 17-13.

The 49er came back down and scored a touchdown thanks to two huge plays by Kaepernick, one with his feet and one with his arm, to put the 49ers up 20-17.  That meant the Packers got the ball back with just over 10 minutes to play.  The Packers put together a nice drive and faced a first and goal from the 9-yard line thanks to a 26-yard pitch and catch between Rodgers and Cobb.  On that play 49ers rookie safety Eric Reid got just enough of Cobb to prevent him from scoring.  Those are the kind of plays that the 49ers routinely make on defense while the Packers seem to make just every now and again.  After three unsuccessful attempts, the Packers were not able to get into the end zone so they settled for a 24-yard field goal by placekicker Mason Crosby to tie the score at 20.

The 49ers got the ball back at their own 20-yard line with just over five minutes to play.  Rookie cornerback Micah Hyde barely missed a pick-six that would have put the Packers up 27-20 with less than four minutes to play.  Just like cornerback Casey Hayward in 2012, Hyde has been a very good slot cornerback this season.  Hopefully both will be healthy in 2014 to give the Packers two very promising up-and-coming defensive backs.

The most pivotal play of the game came on 3rd and 8 from the Packers 38-yard line with just over a minute to play.  Given the cold conditions the 49ers were still out of field goal range and the Packers still had two timeouts.  The Packers much maligned defensive coordinator Dom Capers brought defensive back Jarrett Bush as a part of a six-man blitz.  Unfortunately Bush did not set the edge and the 49ers picked up the blitz so Kaepernick was able to get around Bush to scamper 11 yards for a first down.  That play was essentially the game because the 49ers milked the clock and place kicker Phil Dawson made a 33-yard field goal as time expired to give the 49ers a 23-20 victory.  Packers cornerback Davon House almost blocked the game winning field goal but was offsides so the block wouldn't have counted anyway.

If you can stomach it, here are the Packers/49ers game highlights.  As those highlights show, the margin for error in the playoffs is razor thin.  I can think of at least five plays, including a few discussed above, that if they went slightly different would have resulted in a Packers win instead of a heart-breaking loss.  There were a couple of things that seemed to hang over the Packers this season that were exposed against the 49ers: feast-or-famine offense, red-zone inefficiency by the offense, and the inability to contain a rushing quarterback on defense.

Let's start with the offense.  The Packers had two long, methodical touchdown drives but they also had five drives that picked up less than 10 yards and ended with a punt.  In just his second game back after almost a two month layoff due to a broken collarbone, Rodgers was just 17 for 26 throwing for 177 yards and a touchdown.  Those are not horrible numbers but much less that we've come to expect from the former NFL MVP.  The biggest killer on offense was having a first and goal from the 9-yard line down three points with less than seven minutes to play but having to settle for a field goal.  The Packers have the quarterback (Rodgers), running back (Lacy), and wide receivers (Cobb, Nelson and Company).  Whether it be an athletic tight end (Finley or another healthy guy) or a taller receiver, the Packers need a bigger red-zone target in 2014.

Shifting to the defense.  Kaepernick's passing numbers were not all that impressive (16 for 30, 227 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception) but his rushing numbers (7 carries for 98 yards), including the 11-yard run that salted away the game, were what killed the Packers.  Sure the Packers were without their two best outside linebackers (Matthews and Neal) and cornerback (Shields) for most of the game but injuries are still no excuse for Kaepernick running all over the defense.  ESPN's stats & info broke down how Kaepernick's scrambling ability added the two highest amounts to a team's win probability in a playoff game since 2006.  When the Vikings had Randy Moss, the Packers were forced to add taller defensive backs to counter him.  Although the 49ers are not in the same division as the Packers, they've played each other four times in the last two seasons so despite drafting six consecutive players to start the 2012 NFL Draft, the Packers will most likely have to re-load on defense again.

Every NFL season starts with 32 teams excited but ends with only one team ecstatic and the other 31 teams disappointed.  Unfortunately it has been quadruple disappointment for the Packers at the hands of the 49ers to start and finish the season the last two years.  Luckily the 49ers are not on the regular season slate for the Packers next season.  Although anything less than a Super Bowl victory is disappointing for the Packers, let's not forget that 2013 was an entertaining roller-coaster ride that included two of the five most entertaining regular season road games of my lifetime when Packers beat the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15 and the Chicago Bears in Week 17.

In the past I've written one long post with advice for Packer general manager Ted Thompson.  This season I decided to spread that advice over the next week with a seven-part series starting tomorrow with how Thompson should handle the 8-man practice squad.  Make sure to check back regularly over the next week as I dispense my advice for how Thompson can improve The 53 for 2014 in hopes of winning Super Bowl XLIX.

Thursday, January 2, 2014

Building The 53 - Top 25 Wisconsin Badger NFL Prospects from 2014 Capital One Bowl

The 19th ranked Wisconsin Badgers played the 8th ranked South Carolina Gamecocks for the first time in the 2014 Capital One Bowl.  This marks the second time in three years that the Gamecocks played in the Capitol One Bowl, two years ago they beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers 30-13.  The last time the Badgers appeared in the Capitol One Bowl was 2006 when then first-year Badger head coach Bret Bielema beat the Arkansas Razorbacks 17-14.  Bielema left Wisconsin to become the head coach at Arkansas between the 2012 Big Ten Championship Game and the 2013 Rose Bowl.

Unfortunately the Badgers continued their struggles in bowl games losing their fourth in a row. The Badgers lost three consecutive Rose Bowls: 21-19 to TCU in 2011, 45-38 to Oregon in 2012, and 20-14 to Stanford in 2013.  Following their 34-24 loss to the Gamecocks in the 2014 Capital One Bowl that means the last time the Badgers won a bowl game was the 2009 Champs Sports Bowl 20-14 over Miami.

The Gamecocks have a number of players that will play in the NFL.  The headliner of that group is junior defensive end Jadeveon Clowney that declared for the 2014 NFL Draft right after the Capital One Bowl since he will most likely be the top pick. Other Gamecocks that impressed me were quarterback Connor Shaw, running back Mike Davis, defensive tackle Kelcy Quarles, and linebacker Skai Moore.

There are a number of other outlets where you can get the full recap of the 2014 Capitol One Bowl but I am much more interested in what Badgers from the 2014 Capital One Bowl will succeed in the NFL.  A college player must have been out of high school for three years in order to be eligible for the NFL Draft.  That means if a player red-shirts, he could technically enter the NFL Draft as a red-shirt ("RS") sophomore.  Any underclassmen (RS Sophomore, Junior, or RS Junior) must declare for the 2014 NFL Draft by January 15, 2014.  Here are the Top 25 NFL prospects current on the Badgers' roster:

#25) Young Non-Starting Offensive Lineman:  Seven Badger offensive lineman were taken in the NFL Draft the last three years, which is the most of any school in the country so there is a good chance that one of the following young Badger offensive lineman will be playing in the NFL in three or four years: Ray Ball (SO, G, 6'7" & 321 lbs), Hayden Biegel (FR, T, 6'6" & 281 lbs), Ben Hemer (FR, OL, 6'4" & 275 lbs), Walker Williams (FR, T, 6'7" & 322 lbs), or one of the handful of other big uglies not currently listed on the depth chart.

#24) Kenzel Doe (KR/WR, JR): Every year there is a slightly built but speedy return guy that makes a splash in the NFL.  Doe had a big return in the 2014 Capitol One Bowl to bring the Badgers within three points.  Those are the kind of game-changing plays that could catapult Doe from an undrafted rookie free agent in the 2015 NFL Draft to a spot on the practice squad or even The 53 of an NFL team in 2015.

#23) Vince Biegel (OLB, RS FR): If Biegel can improve his pass rushing moves, look for him to climb this rankings quickly and turn into a nice prospect for the 2017 NFL Draft.

#22) Pat Muldoon (DE, RS SR): This season Muldoon was named All-Big Ten honorable mention but I am not sure that is enough to get him selected in the 2014 NFL Draft.

#21) Ethan Hemer (DE/OLB, SR): Went from walk-on to finally earning a scholarship a year ago.  At 6'6" and 285 lbs, it will be interesting to see if Hemer can go through a Mike Neal-esque transition from defensive line to outside linebacker in the NFL.  Much like Muldoon, I expect Hemer to go undrafted in the 2014 NFL Draft.

#20) Derek Landisch (LB, JR): Despite being a middle-of-the-road recruit, Landisch was named Rookie of the Year in 2011.  Landisch's slight build at 6'0" and 230 lbs means he will really have to show well next season to get selected in the 2015 NFL Draft.

#19) Dan Voltz (C, RS FR): Came to Wisconsin as a tackle/guard but has seen action at center so far for the Badgers.  There is a chance that Voltz could swing to one of the guard positions but given that he is only 6'3", I would be shocked if he got a chance at tackle.  Needs to focus on one position to improve and give scours tape to judge whether he looks like a real NFL prospect.

#18) Dallas Lewallen (C, RS JR): Next season is going to be big for Lewallen because injuries really made it hard to tell whether he can play on Sundays.

#17) Kyle Costigan (RG, RS JR): Switched from defensive line to offensive line before the 2012 season.  The transition has gone better than I expected.  Hopefully with another year under his belt next season he will show enough to get drafted towards the end of the 2015 NFL Draft.

#16) Bart Houston (QB, FR):  The former De La Salle High School player had shoulder surgery on December 1, 2012 and only played in two games this season for the Badgers.  At 6'4" and 214 lbs, Houston projects as an athletic spinner with a good chance to start at quarterback for the Badgers in 2015.

#15) Derek Watt (FB, SO): The cliche description of Watt is to talk about his older brother J.J. but let's focus on Derek.  With all the spread offenses run in college and the NFL, the fullback position is continuing to be marginalized.  That means guys like Watt need to be one of the three or four best at the position along with showing that he can be a contributor on special teams in the NFL if he wants to play on Sunday.  I see Watt as a late round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.

#14) Joel Stave (QB, RS SO): I really only ranked Stave this high because he plays quarterback.  Stave commits way too many turnovers, which is unacceptable given that the Badgers have arguably the most productive two-headed running back monster in college football.  With 19 games under his belt, the Badgers expect more from Stave.

#13) Beau Allen (DT, SR): I am shocked how many big-time Minnesota recruits in basketball and football decide to go to Wisconsin over Minnesota.  Allen is the next in a long line of natives of Minnesota that chose to become a Badgers over settling for being a Gopher.  It feels like Allen has been at Wisconsin for a million years given that he has played all four years.  Not sure whether Allen will get drafted in the 2014 NFL Draft but at 6'3" and 325 lbs he looks like a big enough space eater to play in the NFL.

#12) Dezmen Southward (S, RS SR): I was tempted to move Southward much higher on this list given that he is 6'2 and 210 lbs but he did not make enough plays on the field to warrant a higher ranking.  The safety position is weak in the 2014 NFL Draft after Alabama safety Ha'Sean "Ha Ha" Clinton-Dix.  If Southward tests well at the NFL Combine and Wisconsin's Pro Day, I could see him creeping up the draft board to possibly be a late round draftee in the 2014 NFL Draft.

#11) Tanner McEvoy (QB/S, RS SO): Let me set the stage.  McEvoy red-shirted for the Gamecocks in 2011 before transferring to Arizona Western College where he excelled at quarterback.  The Badgers played McEvoy at safety even though they are going to give him a chance to win the starting quarterback job next season.  Sure McEvoy might be able to spin the ball but at 6'6" and 223 lbs, given the proliferation of all the tall tight ends and wide receivers in the NFL, I would rather see McEvoy stick at safety since there are very few safeties even 6'2" in the NFL let alone 6'6".

#10) Tyler Marz (LT, RS SO): The NFL is looking for the next Joe Thomas as opposed to Gabe Carimi to come out of Wisconsin.  Meritz clearly had the body to be Thomas but those are pretty big shoes to fill given that Thomas is the best offensive lineman in program history.

#9) Corey Clement (FR, RB): Usually the Badgers have a nice stable of running backs but last year was their high watermark in program history with Montee Ball, James White, and Melvin Gordon because there is a chance that all three of those guys will get meaningful carries in the NFL by 2015.  With Ball getting drafted in the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft by the Denver Broncos, everyone moved up one spot in the pecking order with White replacing Ball, Gordon replacing White, and Clement replacing Gordon.  In limited action this season Clement looks like the next coming of Melvin Gordon.  How healthy Clement stays will determine whether he turns into a bona fide NFL prospect by the 2016 NFL Draft.

#8) Michael Caputo (S, RS SO): One of the surest tacklers on the team gives the Badgers a real thumper at safety.  Caputo needs to put on some more muscle because I am still not sure he is strong enough to play on Sundays yet but given that he has the ball skills, two years in the weight room could turn him into a mid-round draft pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.

#7) James White (RB, SR): After an impressive freshman season, White has been under the radar as he was overshadowed by Montee Ball the last couple years and Melvin Gordon this year.  Given White's shiftiness and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, I see him as a poor man's Darren Sproles in the NFL.  I see White as a late round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft that could be a one of the steals of the draft.

#6) Rob Havenstein (RT, RS JR): At 6'8" and 327 lbs, Havenstein is almost has too big of a frame for the NFL but if Havenstein can perform well while staying healthy, look for him to be a mid-round prospect in the 2015 NFL Draft.

#5) Ryan Groy (LG, SR):  Although guard looks like his best position, Groy can play any position along the offensive line so I see him being the eighth Badger offensive lineman drafted in the last four years.

#4) Sojourn Shelton (CB, FR): Although Shelton is only 5'9" & 172 pounds, he has been the most consistent defensive back on the team while leading the Badgers in interceptions.  Shelton is a pretty good tackler as well despite his slight frame.  If Shelton continues on his current trajectory, he might even sneak into the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft. 

#3) Jared Abbrederis (WR, RS SR): Walk-on turned NFL draftee projects as a poor man's Jordy Nelson in the NFL.  I see Abbrederis as a mid-round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft unless he can put up impressive numbers at the NFL combine and his pro day to improve his draft stock.

#2) Chris Borland (LB, SR): The first Badger defender named an All American since defensive end Erasmus James in 2004 is probably the best defensive player in program history.  Given all the injuries that Borland overcame in college, there is no question that he has the mental fortitude to play in the NFL.  Borland plays middle linebacker though so at 5'11" and 246 lbs we are probably looking at the defensive Russell Wilson, which means Borland will drop a little too far in the 2014 NFL Draft and three years from now the other 31 NFL teams will ask their scouting department why they didn't advise taking Borland earlier in the 2014 NFL Draft.  After watching Borland's entire career, trust me, whatever NFL team drafts him will not regret that decision.  My guess is that Borland goes in the 3rd round of the 2014 NFL Draft.

#1) Melvin Gordon (RB, RS SO): Although Gordon is eligible for the 2014 NFL Draft, he recently announced that he is going to return to return for his junior season.  No disrespect to Ron Dayne or Montee Ball but even before the season there was talk that Gordon could be the best running back in Badger history.   If Gordon declared for the draft I would rate him as a late first or early second round pick.  Hopefully Gordon will put together a Heisman worthy season next year for the Badgers to make a push for the Top 10 in the 2015 NFL Draft.

If you enjoyed my extended thoughts on the best NFL prospects for the Badgers, make sure to check back as we get closer to the 2014 NFL Draft for even more draft coverage.

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Man City Report - City in 2nd Place in EPL as January Transfer Window Opens

There are a ton of fixtures compressed into a very short period time in the EPL from the beginning of December through New Years Day that go a long way towards determining how the table looks at the end of the season.  As such, I tried to live-tweet via @CheeseheadSN as many EPL matches for Manchester City as possible through today that I aggregated in #TweetBeat post.

I was unable to live-tweet any of City's first three matches in December: 3-0 home victory over Swansea, 3-2 road victory over West Brom, and 1-1 tie on the road versus Southampton.  I made up for that by live-tweeting City's 6-3 thumping for Arsenal at home and City's 4-2 win over Fulham on the road.  City beat Liverpool 2-1 on Boxing Day but Cheesehead Chick and I were traveling back from celebrating Christmas with In-Law Cheese so I had to catch the match on tape delay, which precluded me from live-tweeting that match.  I made up for that by live-tweeting City's 1-0 win over Crystal Palace at home and City's 3-2 win over Swansea on the road.

With all of those fixtures in the bag, City does not play a league match until January 11th when they travel to Newcastle to face my buddy Uncle Patty's favorite club.  Up until a few years ago City was not a very attractive destinations for big name players and usually did not even have the resources to make a run at quality players during the January transfer window even if players were interested in joining City.  I remember previous January transfer windows when purchasing winger Nery Castillo for $6 million from Shakhtar Donetsk felt like a huge acquisition.  Those are the kind of moves that City would not even spend a second considering this season given the quality of their roster and financial resources.

Despite the fact that Mike Tyson has never heard of City, the rest of the soccer world knows about City and many quality players would love the chance to play for a club that has gone from "the other club in Manchester" to one of the biggest clubs in the world in just a handful of years.  I do not expect City to make a ton of big moves given that they made four large acquisitions before the start of the season.  If anyone was going to leave City, the most likely candidates are midfielder Jack Rodwell and striker Edin Dzeko since both players would start for most EPL clubs but have a hard time getting regular first team action for City.

Given City's deep pockets, they have the resources to purchase almost any player in the world but with the Financial Fair Play rules coming into force in 2015, which in layman's terms means clubs will have to balance the books by 2015, City should shy away from big-money transfers.  If City are going to purchase any players they should target younger, long-term acquisitions with not a very expensive price tag such as AC Milan striker M’Baye Niang (valued at roughly $10 million) or Villarreal central defender Mateo Musacchio ($75 million out clause but is only valued at a fractions of the out clause).

With all of that background out of the way, here are my updated rankings and player thoughts for City's current roster:

Player Rankings
1. Yaya Toure (M, LR 2)
2. Sergio Aguero (F, LR 1)
3. Vincent Kompany (D, LR 4)
4. Alvaro Negredo (F, LR 3)
5. David Silva (M, LR 5)
6. Fernandinho (M, LR 9)
7. Jesus Navas (M, LR 6)
8. Samir Nasri (M, LR 7)
9. Edin Dzeko (F, LR 8)
10. Matija Nastasic (D, LR 10)
11. Joe Hart (GK, LR 12)
12. Pablo Zabaleta (D, LR 11)
13. Gael Clichy (D, LR 13)
14. Aleksandar Kolarov (D, LR 14)
15. James Milner (M, LR 17)
16. Javi Garcia (M, LR 19)
17. Stevan Jovetic (F, LR 20)
18. Joleon Lescott (D, LR 15)
19. Micah Richards (D, LR 18)
20. Jack Rodwell (M, LR 21)
21. Dedryck Boyata (D, LR 23)
22. Martin Demichelis (D, LR 22) 
23. Costel Pantilimon (GK, LR 16)
24. John Guidetti (F, LR 24)
25. Richard Wright (GK, LR 25)
26. Alex Nimely (F, LR 26)
27. Erik Johansen (GK, LR 27)
1) Yaya Toure (M, LR 2): Thanks to scoring the second goal in a 3-2 victory on the road against Swansea City, Toure became the first City midfielder to score 10 goals for the club in the EPL.  Toure was going to reclaim the top spot in my most recent rankings because striker Sergio Aguero suffered against Fulham that will keep him out at least a month but even if Aguero was healthy, unless he had a huge scoring binge, Toure would have reclaimed the top spot anyhow.


6) Fernandinho (M, LR 9): It only took four months for Fernandinho and Toure to look like they've been playing together their entire careers.  Add in that Fernandinho found the back of the net the last few matches, if this run of form continues for Fernandinho and Toure, I think we are looking at the best central midfield pairing in the EPL and possibly all of Europe.

11) Joe Hart (GK, LR 12): Once Hart got his starting job back from Pantilimon, he never looked back. Hart made a number of big saves against Liverpool to keep City in the match and had to get stitches below his left eye following City's 1-0 win over Crystal Palace after suffering a nasty kick to the face.

15) James Milner (M, LR 17): If striker Edin Dzeko is the super-sub up top, Milner is becoming the super-sub in the midfield for City.  Although it has not directly resulted in many second half goals, when Milner enters matches, he routinely works the opposing midfield that is gassed from City's potent midfield.

I hope that everyone is having a great start to 2014.  If City do in fact make any significant moves in the January transfer window, make sure to check for my full coverage in this space.

#TweetBeat - City beat Swansea on the road

Cheeshead Chick and I took it easy last night on New Year's Eve, which made it easier to get up today to catch the early EPL kickoff between Manchester City and Swansea City on New Year's Day.  Much like I did three times earlier this month (City beat Arsenal 6-3, City beat Fulham 4-2, & City beat Crystal Palace 1-0), here are my real-time thoughts via Twitter @CheeseheadSN aggregated as a #TweetBeat post on Man City's 3-2 road victory over Swansea:


























As my last Tweet explains, Man City have been great at home netting 30 of a possible 30 points but have stumbled a bit on the road netting only 14 of a possible 30 points.  Thanks to their win over Swansea, Man City temporarily go to the top of the table pending the outcome of Arsenal's match later this afternoon against Cardiff City.

Make sure to check back later today for my updated Man City player rankings and commentary as the January transfer window opens.

Monday, December 30, 2013

The 53 - Packers beat Bears to win the NFC North

The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears met for the 188th time on Sunday, which is the most of any two teams in NFL history.  That will continue to be a renewing NFL record unless the NFL makes radical changes to divisional alignment or scheduling.  The official NFL game preview was cut before we knew whether Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was going to play.  As it turns out, we knew by Thursday that the Packers were finally going have the services of Rodgers against the Bears for the first time since Week 9 when Rodgers was injured against the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football at Lambeau Field.

The Packers were 5-2 before they lost Rodgers to a broken collarbone and went 2-5-1 using the services of three other quarterbacks (Seneca Wallace, Scot Tolzien, and Matt Flynn) in place of Rodgers.  Somehow the Packers played just well enough to make their Week 17 game against the Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago meaningful.  The winner of the game would win the NFC North, get the 4th seed in the NFC playoffs, and hosts a home playoff game next weekend.  Here were the inactives for the Packers against the Bears: Chris Harper (WR, healthy scratch), Brad Jones (MLB, ankle), Clay Matthews (OLB, broken thumb), Jumal Rolle (CB, healthy scratch), Lane Taylor (G, healthy scratch), JC Tretter (G/C, healthy scratch), and C.J. Wilson (DE, healthy scratch).

As we we all know by now, the Packers beat the Bears in dramatic fashion.  The person that likely suffered the most from the loss, besides the one Bears fan that plays for the Wisconsin Badgers football team, is Bears quarterback Jay Cutler.  For his career, Cutler is now 1-9 (1-8 with the Bears & 0-1 with the Broncos) against the Packers.  Both Cutler and their geriatric but possibly better backup quarterback Josh McCown are both set to become free agents this year.  The sensible approach is the re-sign McCown to a short-term deal and draft a developmental quarterback in the 2014 NFL Draft.  As a Packer fan that lives in Chicago, I hope the Bears resign Cutler so that even if he wins a couple games against the Packers over the next few years he will take up a ton of cap space while driving the entire city of Chicago nuts with his horrible body language that accompanies each of his interceptions.

The Packers and Bears played 186 times in the regular season, the Bears lead the series 92-88-6 but the Packers won nine of their last 11 games against Bears, including six in a row before losing to the Bears earlier this season at Lambeau.  Soldier Field is turning into Lambeau Field South given that the Packers are now 23-19-0 all-time at Soldier Field winning their last four and five of the last six.

Despite playing 186 times in the regular season, the Packers and Bears only met twice in the playoff, both times in Chicago.  The Bears won the first game 33–14 in 1941 at Wrigley Field.  The Packers won the second game 21-14 at Soldier Field in the NFC Championship Game en route to winning Super Bowl XLV.

Their win over the Bears gave the Packers their 3rd consecutive NFC North title and fifth consecutive playoff appearance.  The Packers are now 7-1 in regular season finales against Bears since 1934, wining their last five, with their most notable win in that streak being their 10-3 win at Lambeau in 2010 to start their run toward winning Super Bowl XLV.  It is not just the Bears that have struggled against the Packers in regular season finales.  The Packers won 18 of their last 20 regular season finales, including seven of their last eight against NFC North foes with their only lose coming in a meaningless game on the road against the Minnesota Vikings in 2012 that was quickly remedied by a playoff win the following week over the Vikings at Lambeau Field.

I am often critical of in-game decisions my Packers head coach McCarthy but give him, check that Rodgers credit, for being very impressive at the end of the regular season.  The Packers are now 18-6 in regular season in December/January since 2009, which only trails the Patriots (21-4) and the Chargers (19-6).  Taking a slightly longer timeline, McCarthy has a winning divisional record in all eight seasons in charge of the Packers.  The Bill Belichick coached New England Patriots are the only other team in the NFL to match the Packers.

Without further adu, here are my updated player rankings following the Packers/Bears game:

The 53
1. Aaron Rodgers (QB, LR 1)
2. Clay Matthews (OLB, LR 2) 
3. Randall Cobb (WR, LR N/A)
4. Jordy Nelson (WR, LR 3)
5. Eddie Lacy (RB, LR 4)
6. Sam Shields (CB, LR 5)
7. Josh Sitton (G, LR 7)
8. T.J. Lang (G, LR 6)
9. James Jones (WR, LR 8)
10. Tramon Williams (CB, LR 12)
11. David Bakhtiari (T, LR 16)
12. Evan Dietrich-Smith (C, LR 10)
13. Morgan Burnett (S, LR 9)
14. Mike Daniels (DL, LR 11)
15. Micah Hyde (CB, LR 13)
16. B.J. Raji (DL, LR 14)
17. Jarrett Boykin (WR, LR 18)
18. Don Barclay (T, LR 15)
19. A.J. Hawk (MLB, LR 17)
20. James Starks (RB, LR 24)
21. Brad Jones (MLB, LR 19)
22. Datone Jones (DL, LR 21)
23. Nick Perry (OLB, LR 22)
24. Davon House (CB, LR 20)
25. Tim Masthay (P, LR 25)
26. Ryan Pickett (DL, LR 31)
27. Andrew Quarless (TE, LR 27)
28. John Kuhn (FB, LR 30)
29. Josh Boyd (DL, LR 26)
30. Mason Crosby (K, LR 34)
31. Mike Neal (DL/OLB, LR 28)
32. Jamari Lattimore (LB, LR 29)
33. Jarrett Bush (CB, LR 32)
34. Derek Sherrod (T, LR 33)
35. Jerel Worthy (DE, LR 37)
36. Sean Richardson (S, LR 36)
37. Brett Goode (LS, LR 35)
38. Andy Mulamba (LB, LR 38)
39. Matt Flynn (QB, LR 23)
40. M.D. Jennings (S, LR 39)
41. Ryan Taylor (TE, LR 40)
42. J.C. Tretter (C, LR 42)
43. C.J. Wilson (DL, LR 43)
44. Chris Banjo (S, LR 44)
45. Scott Tolzien (QB, LR 41)
46. Victor Aiyewa (LB, LR 45)
47. Jake Stoneburner (TE, LR 46)
48. Nate Palmer (LB, LR 50)
49. Lane Taylor (G, LR 47)
50. Chris Harper (WR, LR 48)
51. Marshall Newhouse (T, LR 49)
52. Kahlil Bell (RB, LR 51)
53.
Injured Reserve
1. Jermichael Finley (TE)
2. Bryan Bulaga (T)
3. Casey Hayward (CB)
4. Johnny Jolly (DL) 
5. DuJuan Harris (RB)
6. Jonathan Franklin (RB)
7. Brandon Bostick (TE)
8. Robert Francois (MLB)
9. Greg Van Roten (C/G)
10. Sam Barrington (LB)
11. Myles White (WR)
12. Seneca Wallace (QB)
13. James Nixon (CB)
14. Kevin Dorsey (WR)
15. Sederrik Cunningham (WR)
Cut
1. Jeremy Ross (WR, Lions)
2. Jerron McMillian (S, free agent)
3. Michael Hill (RB, Buccaneers)
1) Aaron Rodgers (QB, LR 1): Bears outside linebacker Shea McClellin was one of my former NFL draft crushes from the 2012 NFL Draft.  McClellin has been somewhat underwhelming so far in the NFL with his more notable play coming when he sacked Rodgers and broke his collarbone earlier this season.  The difference between Rodgers and the three other quarterbacks on The 53 (Flynn and Tolzien) or injured reserve (Wallace) that played meaningful snaps this season is quite dramatic.  The offense averaged almost 9 points less with Wallace, Tolzien, or Flynn under center instead of Rodgers.  The NFL picks league that I am in with my buddy Sug where we pick every game against the spread had the line at +7 for the Packers even though Rodgers was scheduled to play.  Needless to say, we loaded up on that line making it a pick of the year.  I know this sounds like piling on at this point but in case you missed it, here is the video about Rodgers returning to play the Bears, if you didn't get chills watching that video then I can safely say you are not a Packer fan.  Rodgers looked tentative at times on a handful of his incomplete passes and downright rusty on his two interceptions but take a look at his stat line against the Bears after missing essentially eight games: 25 for 39 throwing for 318 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions for a quarterback rating of 85.2 (QBR of 57.7).  I hate the "big time players make big time plays" but it applies to Rodgers against the Bears.  With the Packers down 28-27 with 46 seconds left in the game and facing a 4th and 8 from the Bears' 48-yard line, Rodgers propelled the Packers into the playoffs.  It is really hard to rank the Top 10 plays of Rodgers' career and that doesn't even factor in that I expect him to have a bunch more over the next decade, but when it is all said and done I think you would be hard pressed to keep his game winner to Cobb out of the Top 10, even if he leads the Packers to more Super Bowl win(s).

3) Randall Cobb (WR, LR N/A): After breaking his leg on the road against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 6, the Packers placed Cobb on IR designated for return so he could have been added to The 53 for the Packers/Cowboys game.  Unfortunately Cobb was still not healthy enough to play against the Cowboys or in the Packers/Steelers game. That meant that Cobb ultimately missed 10 games before the Packers activated him from the IR designated for return to The 53 yesterday.  The Packers clearly benefited from having Cobb back in the lineup considering he caught two balls that both resulted in touchdowns.  Although the second touchdown is the one that Packers fans will be talking about for many years to come, Cobb's first touchdown catch on 3rd and 4 at the Bears 7-yard line with 7 and half minutes left in the 3rd quarter down 14-13 is something the Packers been missing with Cobb out.  Wide receivers James Jones and Nelson do a great job working outside while Cobb thrives in the slot.  Often people say take this with a grain of salt but in this instance don't take this with a grain of salt, I think if Cobb was out this week the Packers would not have beaten the Bears.

5) Eddie Lacy (RB, LR 4): Another week, another gutty (no pun intended) performance by Lacy playing with a heavily taped sprained ankle: 21 carries for 66 yards and 1 touchdown to go along with 2 catches for 15 yards.  Although that stat line does not seem that impressive given the fact that the Bears have the worst rush defense in the NFL, it is Lacy's mere presence on the field alone that gives the Packers a legitimate running threat, which opens up a number of options in the passing game.  I've said many times that I am not a fan of running draws out of the shotgun but runs like Lacy's touchdown run against the Bears show that sometimes it is in fact an effective play call since it allows a patient running back like Lacy time to bounce a run outside instead of getting tackled for no gain.  Lacy's touchdown run pulled the Packers within two points with just under 12 minutes to play in the game.  At the time I was fine with McCarthy kicking the extra point to make it 28-27 but upon further reflection today, I think McCarthy should have gone for two in that situation to try to tie the game.  Assuming McCarthy went for two, I would have run Lacy up the middle on that attempt instead of calling a passing play like McCarthy did when he actually went for two in the dying moments of the game.  There is no question that Lacy had the best rookie season for a Packer that I can remember, which is why I thought he got snubbed not getting invited to the Pro Bowl.

6) Sam Shields (CB, LR 5): A little over a month ago I broke down how Packers general manager Ted Thompson should approach their impending restricted and unrestricted free agents this off-season.  At that time I thought Sheilds was a long-shot to return to the Packers but my opinion has dramatically changed.  Part of the reason why I thought Sheilds would not be on The 53 for the Packers in 2014 is the fact that the Packers have a number of young, talented cornerbacks on The 53 for the next few years on cheap, combined with the fact that Shields is going to demand a very large contract.  At the risk of pricing Shields out Green Bay, let's not forget that he holds the distinction of coming up with a game ending interception in two of the most dramatic Packers/Bears games of all-time: 2010 NFC Champion Game & last night.  I know this sounds like me being more of a fan than thinking like a general manager but at some point you need to pay players that make big plays, especially when those guys are just entering their prime like Shields is given that he just turned 26-years old.  There is no question Shields is the best cornerback on The 53 right now.  The real question is whether Thompson can fit a five-year, $50 million contract with at least half of that deal guaranteed into the salary cap for 2014 and beyond to keep Shields on The 53 for the Packers long-term.

8) T.J. Lang (G, LR 6): Apparently McCarthy had to be talked into going for it by his offensive line on the first of three 4th down conversions by the Packers on their final drive  Just to set the stage, the Packers trailed the Bears 28-27 where they faced a 4th and 1 from their own 22-yard line with 4:41 to play and only one timeout left.  Had the Packers not picked up the first down, the game would have essentially been over.  I've said many times that one prism that I look through when dissecting coaching decisions is what an educated fan of the other team would not want a head coach to do.  In that instance, I am sure that Bears fans would rather that the Packers punt instead of going for it.  The Packers ultimately picked up the first down on a one-yard run by fullback John Kuhn but I guarantee you that a smart Bears fan, I know that seems like a non sequitur, would rather the Packers punted in that situation.

10) Tramon Williams (CB, LR 12): A gang tackle of Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey by Williams and Business HJ results in a fumble that was recovered by safety Morgan Burnett.  As Burnett scampered tried to return the fumble for a touchdown, he pitched the ball to cornerback Sam Shields.  Ultimately Shields was tackled after running a few more yards.  That is the kind of group defensive play that we came to expect the last few years from the Packers but have not seen so far this season.  The lack of big plays partially falls at the feet of the safties since they went the entire season without an interception for the first time since the 1950's.  Fortunately against the Bears, the defense picked a good time to harken back to their play the last few years.  Taking into account the fact that the Packers need to keep Shields long-term, I see the Packers doing everything possible to get Williams to take a pay cut next season.  If Williams will not take a pay cut, as crazy as it sounds, I could see the Packers actually keeping Williams instead of cutting him like Thompson cut cornerback/safety Charles Woodson last off-season.

17) Jarrett Boykin (WR, LR 18): How many times is a ball clearly not a fumble or a pass clearly dropped but a player still picks up the ball and runs with it acting as if they have a live ball?  Luckily Boykin with a little help from Rodgers and the sideline realized it was actually a live ball so he scooper it up and ran in for a touchdown.  There is a lot that happened on that play so let's break it down piece-by-piece.  The Packers faced a 1st and 10 on the Bears' 17-yard line down 7-3 with just over three and a half minutes left in the first half.  Bears defensive end Julius Peppers knocked the ball out of Rodgers' hand.  In real time it looked like Rodgers' arm might be going forward, which I presume is why Bears linebacker James Anderson didn't scoop up the ball and run.  If Anderson did, the Bears would have been up 14-3.  Instead Boykin recovered the fumble and ran it in for a touchdown to give the Packers a 10-7 lead.  Boykin's post-game comments gave some interesting insight into what is actually happening on the field during an NFL game.  Even though the fans in the stadium were screaming and the entire Packers' sideline was telling Boykin to pick up the ball, he said that the only thing he could hear was Rodgers telling him to pickup the ball and run.  The emergence of Boykin as a legitimate NFL wide receiver is simultaneously a good and bad thing.  It is a good thing because I could see him starting for a handful of teams in the NFL so that is a nice, cheap commodity to have on The 53 as a 3rd or 4th wide receiver.  It is a bad thing because I could see the Packers letting wide receiver James Jones leave via free agency because they have to extend wide receivers Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson in the next year so having a cost-effective third wide receiver makes more sense than having three expensive wide receivers.

20) James Starks (RB, LR 24): Besides the injury to Rodgers, I will remember 2013 as the season that the Packers started being able to run for first downs on 3rd and 1 again for the first time in what felt like a decade. Whether it be fullback John Kuhn, Lacy, or Starks; it seems like the Packers finally have the physically backs on The 53 to pick up their every tricky one yard.  Case and point, Starks' 41-yard run against the Bears.  I would prefer the Packers use Lacy as opposed to Kuhn or Starks but the fact that we are even discussing the Packers picking up first downs on the ground is amazing.  Starks is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent following this season.  When healthy, Lacy is clearly the bell cow at running back.  The Packers have two running backs currently on injured reserve in Jonathan Franklin and DuJuan Harris that are under contract for at least next season so they will most likely be on The 53 in 2014.  I would be shocked if the Packers drafted a running back after drafting Lacy and Franklin in the 2013 NFL Draft.  Since Kuhn and Starks are both set to be free agents after the season, it will be interesting to see if both return in 2014.  Usually the Packers keep four or five backs on The 53.  Given Kuhn's versatility in being able to play special teams and serve as a great blocking back, I see the Packers keeping Kuhn and then deciding whether they want Starks as a 4th running back on The 53 in 2014.

Enjoy the full game highlights & post-game celebration from one of the five best Packers/Bears games of all-time.  As I said earlier, the Packers and Bears have played 188 times, which should put into context how special their most recent meeting was in the history of the NFL's best rivalry.  Thanks to having uncles with Bears season tickets, I've been to a ton of Packers/Bears games over the years including every game since they renovated Soldier Field.  For some reason I did not get tickets from my uncles this year but we still had a great time watching the game with Cheesehead Chick, Fernando, E-Dogg, Bryn, and James.  After the game Cheesehead Chick and I met Dre, Sug, and Tessa at Wells on Wells for some celebratory drinks.  I don't often gives Bears fans credit but at least the Bears fans at Wells on Wells deserve credit because there were still a handful of them in the bar hours after the game was done and all they did was chuckle at us as we danced around the bar like we just won the Super Bowl.

Speaking of the Super Bowl, the 8-7-1 Packers need to re-group because they host the 12-4 San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs next week. The 49ers are 0-2 at Lambeau Field in the playoffs and the Packers are 8-4 in NFL Wild Card games.  In terms of more recent head-to-head comparisons, after the Packers dominated the 49ers for a very long-time winning eight straight, the series shifted in favor of the 49ers the last few years with the 49ers winning three consecutive games including the regular season openers the last two years (2012 & 2013) and the playoffs last year.

I do not expect a ton of turnover to The 53 this week but if there are any changes, check back for full coverage.  Otherwise make sure to check back early next week for my extended thoughts on the Packers/49ers playoff game.