Showing posts with label EPL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EPL. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Man City Report - January 2015 Transfer Window Roundup

A little over a month ago I gave Man City manager Manuel Pellegrini advice on how to approach the January transfer window.  Unfortunately Pellegirini didn't follow my advice, so I will provide my critique after I give you an update on the six competitive (seven total) matches Man City played since my last post: four EPL matches and two FA Cup match.

Man City dropped two points at home to close out 2014 when they surrendered a 2-0 lead to Burnley to tie them 2-2.  Sadly Man City almost did the same thing against Sunderland to open 2015 but thankfully midfielder Frank Lampard notched another important EPL goal for Man City to give them a 3-2 victory over Sunderland.  Man City followed that up with a 2-1 victory over Sheffield Wednesday in the FA Cup.  That form didn't carry back over to the EPL when Man City went back on the road to face Everton because they tied them 1-1.  Sadly that wasn't rock bottom as Man City lost consecutive home matches by a scoreline of 2-0.  Man City first lost to Arsenal in the EPL and then to lowly Middlesbrough to crash out of the FA Cup. In between home 2-0 loses, Man City won a friendly in Abu Dhabi against Hamburg.  I know Man City needs to expand their global brand and play in front of their oil barren owners occasionally to appease them but that came at the expense of the FA Cup given that Man City returned from Abu Dhabi less than 24 hours before their home loss to Middlesbrough.  That is hardly the form Man City wanted to be in ahead of their most important EPL match of the season when they went on the road to face EPL leaders Chelsea.  Man City trailed Chelsea by five points going into the match and that margin remained the same as Man City tied Chelsea 1-1 despite actually being the better side.

With the January transfer window closed, here are my updated thoughts and rankings to the roster:

2014-15 Player Rankings 4.0
1. Sergio Aguero (F, LR 1)2. Yaya Toure (M, LR 3)
3. Vincent Kompany (D, LR 2)
4. David Silva (M, LR 4)
5. Wilfred Bony (F, LR N/A)
6. James Milner (M, LR 9)
7. Pablo Zabaleta (D, LR 5)
8. Samir Nasri (M, LR 6)
9. Jesus Navas (M, LR 10)
10. Edin Dzeko (F, LR 7)
11. Joe Hart (GK, LR 8)

12. Fernandinho (M, LR 14)
13. Gael Clichy (D, LR 16)
14. Eliaquim Mangala (D, LR 11)  
15. Aleksandar Kolarov (D, LR 13)
16. Bacary Sagna (D, LR 18)
17. Fernando (M, LR 15)
18. Stevan Jovetic (F, LR 12)
19. Martin Demichelis (D, LR 17)
20. Willy Caballero (GK, LR 19)
21. José Ángel Pozo (M, LR 20)
22. Dedryck Boyata (D, LR 21)
23. Sinan Bytyqi (M, LR 24)
24. Frank Lampard (M, LR 25)
25. Richard Wright (GK, LR 26)
Loaned Out
1. Scott Sinclair (M)
2. Matija Nastasic (D)
5) Wilfred Bony (F, LR N/A): I am on record as saying I would rather have kept Alvaro Negredo instead of essentially selling him in a move that was called a "loan" before the season to balance the books.  That decisions was exacerbated by all the injuries Man City suffered at striker at the end of 2014, which forced Pellegrini to start midfielder James Milner at striker since he did NOT have a healthy striker available despite being arguably the richest club in the world.  Man City tried to fix that when they bought Wilfred Bony from Swansea.  There is no doubt that Bony is a quality striker given that he was the top scorer in the EPL in 2014 when he scored 24 goals.  In fact the first two of those goals came against Man City at home to open 2014 in a 3-2 loss to Man City.  I presume Pellegrini never forgot that performance, which most likely factored into his decision to buy Bony.  Whether Bony is worth a $40 million transfer fee is another matter.  To put the $40 million transfer fee in perspective, it eclipses the fee that Man City paid to Arsenal for Emmanuel Adebayor in 2009 to make Bony's transfer fee the most expensive transfer fee of all-time for an African footballer.  That is a ton of money, especially given that Man City already have three accomplished strikers on the roster that are all currently in a collective injury/scoring drought but don't forget that Bony is off at the African Cup of Nations tournament as a member of the Ivory Coast so he doesn't even provide immediate help for Man City's striker woes anyhow.  Not only did Man City pay almost $40 million for Bony's services but Man City signed him to a four-and-half year contract worth upwards of $150,000 a week and includes a clause that pays Bony an additional $30,000 per appearance for the club.  The appearance fee seems like it is gilding the lily for Bony but I presume that "bonus" was included to somehow skirt UEFA's Financial Fair Play rules.  That is great business for Swansea given that they paid $20 million for his services just a few years ago even though selling Bony will mean Swansea sold one of the most prolific goal scorers in Europe.  Bony's 56 goals (25 EPL goals since the start of the 2013-14 EPL season) are the 5th most goal scored in Europe's top six leagues since the start of the 2012-13 season behind heavyweights Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, and Graziano Pellè.  Bony has found the back of the net regularly in the Eredivisie and EPL for less glamorous clubs than Man City so I expect that to continue as long as Bony can get regular first-team action. Let's hope this deal goes better than the last time Man City purchased a player from Swansea though given that Man City purchased winger Scott Sinclair for roughly $12 million in 2012 but Sinclair only made three starts and 19 appearances total over a couple seasons for Man City.  Given the lack of regular playing time, Man City loaned Sinclair to Aston Villa with an eye towards a permanent move over the summer.

9) Jesus Navas (M, LR 10): With Nasri out injured for a few more weeks, Navas is getting regular starts at winger despite the fact that his crosses have been sub-par besides his most recent outing against Chelsea.  I know that might seem like a fairly general criticism but Navas is essentially on the field to combine with the right back to provide good service to the strikers so when his crosses are sub-par, there is not much reason to play him  Unfortunately Man City doesn't really have a better option than Navas at this point since Silva thrives as a playmaker in the middle and Milner is a nice option opposite Navas on the other wing.  I wonder whether Man City need to consider something somewhat unconventional like playing Kolarov or Zabaleta as a winger as opposed to their regular spot as an outside defender.  Kolarov has played as a winger a couple of times for Man City so moving Zabaleta or him to winger from outside back might not be all that revolutionary, especially given how much they already push forward from their outside back positions.

17) Fernando (M, LR 15): The Mangala signing is clearly the biggest disappointment of the summer transfer window for Man City but Fernando is not that far behind.  That is exacerbated by the fact that Yaya Toure is playing with new teammate Bony for the Ivory Coast in the African Cup of Nations.  Given how invisible Fernando has been in place of Toure, Man City need to consider starting Frank Lampard along side Fernandinho ahead of Fernando now that they secured Lampard's services through the end of the season.  I would even rather see James Milner play in central midfield ahead of Fernando at this point. When Toure returns, Lampard can move back to his super-sub role, which will essentially relegate Fernando to spot appearances till next season unless Toure, Fernandinho, Lampard, or Milner are injured for an extended period of time.

22) Dedryck Boyata (D, LR 21): Pellegrini loaned central defender Matija Nastasic to Schalke through the end of the season.  Much like Negredo's loan, Nastasic's loan to Schalke includes a purchase option.  Apparently Pellegrini holds Dedryck Boyata in higher esteem than Nastasic, otherwise this loan makes no sense.  The structure of the loan means the proverbial ball is in Schalke's court now for how they want to proceed with Nastasic.  Unless Man City can recoup almost all of their original $20 transfer fee they paid Fiorentina for Nastasic's services, which I think is highly unlikely, I hope Schalke passes on their purchase option for Nastasic because I still think he could be a useful defender for Man City given that he is still only 21 years old. 

With the transfer window closed till the summer, Man City will have an uphill battle in the Champions League (face Barcelona in their quarterfinal home-and-home match up) and the EPL (currently in second place, five points behind Chelsea).  Check back at the end of the next international break for my updated thoughts on the squad.

Monday, December 29, 2014

Man City Report - January 2015 Transfer Window Advice for Manuel Pellegrini

Following our last check-in, Man City played four EPL matches from mid to late December and found out their opponent for the knock-out stage of the Champions League.  Unfortunately Man City drew Barcelona in the knockout stages of the Champions League for the second year in a row.  You know that you support a club that is (almost) out of problems when the biggest complaint you have is about facing another world super power in the most prestigious club tournament in the world.  This kind of challenge for Man City, if they somehow best Barcelona in their home-and-home fixtures, is exactly what Man City needs to jump from an impressive domestic club (won two the last three EPL titles) to a a true world super power.

Man City continued their winning streak since my last recap in the first of those four EPL matches with a gritty 1-0 road victory over Leicester City. Apparently winning begets winnings because Man City followed that up with a 3-0 victory at home over Crystal Palace and a 3-1 victory on the road over West Brom.  Just two days later Man City hosted Burnley armed with the knowledge that if they won, they would join Chelsea at the top of the table since Chelsea tied Southampton 1-1 earlier in the day.  Man City went up 2-0 just over a third a way through the match but somehow conceded two goals to tie Burnley 2-2 at home to close out 2014 two points behind EPL leaders Chelsea.  10 out of a possible 12 points seems great but given the competition and the fact that Man City was up two goals on Burnley at home, they really should have taken a maximum of 12 points from those four fixtures.

Man City manager Manuel Pellegrini did a ton of business in the summer transfer window to help the club balance their books to comply with UEFA's Financial Fair Play Rules, which left Man City with only three and a half strikers with EPL experience.  I say three and half because youngster José Ángel Pozo played decent up top in his first team appearances but does not look like a threat to actually score in the EPL yet so I only count him as half a striker at this point.  Injuries to strikers Sergio Aguero and Edin Džeko forced Pellegrini to start midfielder James Milner as a "striker" since Stevan Jovetić was only available as a substitute since he is (again) rehabbing an injury.  That means Man City will need some help at striker till Aguero and Džeko return.

In Pellegrini's summer business he loaned out striker Alvaro Negrado to Valencia, which was the move that I was most skeptical about.  I know Negrado had a broken foot at the time but Negredo made 11 appearances for Valencia from late October to late December: five starts and six appearances as a substitute.  Sure Negrado only has one goal for Valencia so far this season but last season he had an amazing ability to find the back of the net as both a starter and a substitute for Man City.  Since Negredo is no longeran option, let's look a Man City's other striker options to acquire in the transfer window.

The most common striker targets linked with Man City are Christian Benteke (Aston Villa), Wilfried Bony (Swansea), Mario Mandzukic (Atletico Madrid), and Paul-Georges Ntep (Rennes).  The price tag on Ntep is reportedly $10 million while Benteke, Bony or Mandzukic would most likely be three or four times that amount.  If money were no object, Man City would have just kept Negrado and possibly still even signed Bony but money is an object because of UEFA's Financial Fair Play Rules.  The other drawback to Bony is that he will be at the African Cup of Nations, which is a bi-annual tournament between the best African countries, from mid-January to possibly as late as mid-February if Ivory Coast makes it to the final.  That is exactly when Man City would need Bony's services given the injury issues for Aguero and Dzeko.  Plus, once Aguero and Dzeko return from injury it could create a locker room issue to have Benteke, Bony, or Mandzukic as the 3rd or 4th striker option depending on how management feels about Jovetić.  As a result, I would add Ntep in the hopes of buying low on a long-term prospect that can be loaned out next season to a Championship side.  My guess is that Man City ultimately adds Bony and I have no doubt that he will perform well for Man City in the long-term, I just think that is not the most fiscally responsible move.

No matter what happens at striker, Man City definitely need to extend midfielder Frank Lampard's loan from their MLS "sister" club New York City FC because Lampard has been an absolute revelation for Man City.  When New York City FC loaned Lampard to Man City it looked like it was simply a way to keep Lampard in shape before he joined New York City FC for their inaugural season in the MLS.  Instead, Lampard went on to score an number of important EPL goals for Man City including the equalizer against his former employer Chelsea to give Man City a 1-1 tie at home and the only goal against Leicester City to give Man City a 1-0 victory.

Lampard's form is something that Liverpool should keep in mind as they are trying to decide whether the extend midfielder Steven Gerrard's contract, which is due to expire at the end of the season.  Sure some teams would rather move on a year too early than a year too late but not when you are talking about a club icon that icon goes on to thrive in the same league against you the following season.  Besides Lampard's impressive form, don't forget that Yaya Toure will be away from the club for almost a month at the start of 2015 for the aforementioned African Cup of Nations.  That leaves Man City with Fernandinho and Fernando as their only other true central midfielders.  Sure the likes of Milner and David Silva could fill-in but Lampard is the perfect offensive compliment to Fernandinho or Fernando.

The last couple years Man City has been reserved in the January transfer window but they've also been relatively healthy during the previous January transfer windows too.  Whatever young play-maker is doing well is always linked to Man City because of their deep pockets but again UEFA's Financial Fair Play Rules make it too risky to try to add a winger like Ross Barkley from Everton given that his price tag would be in the $60 to $70 million range.  The price always seems to go up whenever Man City is involved because of their deep pockets.  Sure Barkley would be nice to have given that he is a better winger than James Milner, Jesus Navas or even Samir Nasri but I am actually not sure Barkley is an upgrade over David Silva so sometimes the deals you don't make turn out to be the best ones.  Given the winger depth that Man City currently possess, I hope that Man City does not make any other expensive, borderline irrational move for a guy like Barkley or even Bony for that matter despite Man City's need for a healthy striker.

No matter what Man City actually does in the January transfer window, make sure to check back for full coverage in this space.  If Man City doesn't do any business, which would be shocking to me given their lack of depth at striker and the need to extend Lampard's loan stay, make sure to check back in the space for my thoughts at the close of the January transfer window.

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Man City Report - On Fire Thanks to Six Wins in Six Matches

Following the third international break of the season, Man City had six matches from late November through early December: four EPL matches and two UEFA Champions League group stage matches.  Man City won two of the last three EPL titles so the next logical step for them to become one of the most successful clubs in the world is to win the Champions League, which is why the sixth of those six matches was the most important on the road against Roma in the Champions League.

The international break did some good for Man City because in the first of their six matches following the international break they beat Swansea 2-1 at home in the EPL.  Man City's Champions League chances were kept on life support thanks to a hat trick by Sergio Aguero to beat Bayern Munich 3-2 at home.  That qualify form carried over into the EPL as Man City trounced Southampton 3-0 on the road to jump leapfrog them into second place in the EPL standings.  Man City followed that up with another road victory in the EPL, this time 4-1 over Sunderland.  Man City returned home for a hard fought 1-0 victory over Everton in the EPL just hours after Chelsea lost to Newcastle to narrow Chelsea's lead in the table to just three points.  Man City not only won their sixth match in a row with a 2-0 road win over Roma in the Champions League but thanks to a CSKA loss to Bayern Munich, Man City improbably qualified for the knockout stages of the Champions League thanks to taking 6 points in their last two Champions League matches after they earned just two points in their first four matches.

Here are my updated player rankings for Man City following their best six match stretch (so far) of the 2014-15 season:

6) Samir Nasri (M, LR 7): If Man City are somehow able to win the Champions League this year, there is no doubt that Nasri's howler that put Man City up 1-0 over Roma will go down as one of the more important goals in club history.  Last year I was bummed that Man City finished second in their group to Bayern Munich because it mean that they faced Barcelona in the knockout stage.  This year, I am just happy to see Man City progress to the knockout stage.  Given Champions League knockout stage rules, since Man City finished second in their group they will face one of the eight group winners but cannot face the team from their group (Bayern Munich) or another club from their country (Chelsea), which leaves six other teams that Man City could face in the knockout stage.  Here are my rankings of the match-ups from best to worst for Man City: FC Porto, AS Monaco, Athletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Barcelona, and Real Madrid. It is all gravy in the Champions League at this point given how dire things looked just two matches ago in the group stages.  As long as Man City do NOT have to face Real Madrid or Barcelona in the knockout stages, I like their chances to move onto the quarterfinals and one step closer to a Champions League title.

2014-15 Player Rankings 3.0
1. Sergio Aguero (F, LR 1)
2. Vincent Kompany (D, LR 2)
3. Yaya Toure (M, LR 3)
4. David Silva (M, LR 4)
5. Pablo Zabaleta (D, LR 5)
6. Samir Nasri (M, LR 7)
7. Edin Dzeko (F, LR 6)
8. Joe Hart (GK, LR 8)

9. James Milner (M, LR 9)
10. Jesus Navas (M, LR 10)
11. Eliaquim Mangala (D, LR 15) 12. Stevan Jovetic (F, LR 13)
13. Aleksandar Kolarov (D, LR 11)
14. Fernandinho (M, LR 12)
15. Fernando (M, LR 14)
16. Gael Clichy (D, LR 16)
17. Martin Demichelis (D, LR 17)

18. Bacary Sagna (D, LR 18)
19. Willy Caballero (GK, LR 19)
20. José Ángel Pozo (M, LR 23)
21. Dedryck Boyata (D, LR 20)
22. Scott Sinclair (M, LR 22)
23. Matija Nastasic (D, LR 21)
24. Sinan Bytyqi (M, LR 24)
25. Frank Lampard (M, LR 25)
26. Richard Wright (GK, LR 26)
18) Bacary Sagna (D, LR 18): Given that Gareth Barry and Javi Garcia were sold this summer, I really had to stretch to find a current member of Man City besides Frank Lampard that looks likely to play for Man City's MLS "Sister" club New York City FC.  Despite the fact that Sagna joined Man City on a free transfer from Arsenal this summer, Man City signed Sagna to a three-year, $235,000 a week contract.  That weekly contract is way too rich for a striker as a designated player, let alone a right back so I would be shocked if Sagna left for New York City FC till after his contract expires after the 2016-17 season.  This is really an elaborate ruse to recap New York City FC's expansion draft results couched under a description of a current Man City player so instead of trying to continue this ruse, let's just look at New York City FC's expansion draft results.  Subject to a number of rules, Orlando and New York City FC were each able to select 10 players in the expansion draft.  Here are the players that NYCFC selected: Ned Grabavoy (M, Salt Lake), Patrick Mullins (F, New England), Jason Hernandez (D, San Jose), Daniel Lovitz (M, Toronto), Tony Taylor (F, New England), Mehdi Ballouchy (M, Vancouver), George John (D, Dallas), Thomas McNamara (M, D.C. United), Sal Zizzo (M, Kansas City), and Chris Wingert (D, Salt Lake).  I will do my best to brush up on the list above because before today I had never heard of any of those guys besides Mullins and John.  I am the same guy that gets up at the crack of dawn on the weekends to catch EPL matches so I am not sure if that is more of an indictment on me or the MLS that I only know two of the ten MLS players selected by New York City FC in the MLS expansion draft.

20) José Ángel Pozo (M, LR 23): With Sergio Aguero out until at least the start of 2015 and possibly longer, the third striker available to Pellegrini is Pozos, which seems downright crazy given that Man City is one of the richest clubs in the world.  Some referred to Pozos as "Mini Messi", in the words of Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers R-E-L-A-X.  Sure Rodgers used relax differently than I am using it here but let's keep in mind that Pozos is only 18 years old while Messi is arguably the best club striker of all-time even though he is only 27 years old.  Before you get too excited, note the use of the word "club".  I know Messi has NOT won a World Cup with Argentina, which is why I said he is the most successful club striker.  If Messi were to somehow win a World Cup in 2018 in Russia or 2022 in Qatar, with all due respect to Pele, he will go down as the best striker of all-time.  Back to Pozos, the fact that he is the third option at striker with Aguero out is exactly the reason that I did NOT support Man City's decision to loan out striker Alvaro Negredo to help comply with UEFA Financial Fair Play Regulations.  Let's hope that Pozos can grow up fast or Aguero can recover from injury sooner rather expected, otherwise Man City's title chase could be over before the start of 2015 because of Man City's packed but relatively easy EPL slate for the rest of 2014: road against Leicester, home against Crystal Palace, road against West Brom, and home against Burnley.  That does NOT mean Man City should get complacent though because anything less than 12 points will be a disappointment.

Check back following Man City's match at home against Burnley for my thoughts on how Man City manager Manuel Pellegrini should approach the January transfer window.

Monday, October 6, 2014

Man City Report - So Far So Good...NOT Great...Just Good

It has been an interesting start to the 2014-15 season for Man City.  After a great start to their EPL title defense (beat Newcastle and Liverpool), Man City got a very tough draw in Group E (Bayern Munich, CSKA Moscow, and Roma) of the Champions League group stage.  A few days after my look at Man City's tough Champions League group stage draw, Man City went into the first international break of the season with a whimper thanks to a 1-0 at home loss to Stoke.

Man City didn't do much to improve their roster in the 2014 Summer Transfer Window, instead they tried to clean-up their books to comply with UEFA's Financial Fair Play Regulations.  Coming out of the first international break, Man City had seven matches in September and early October before the next international break: four EPL matches, two UEFA Champions League group stage matches, and one Capital One Cup match.

In the first of the aforementioned matches, Man City tied Arsenal 2-2 on the road in the EPL.  Man City followed that up with a loss on the road 1-0 to Bayern Munich on a goal by former Man City defender Jerome Boetang at the death in their opening Champions League match.  Man City returned home to notch a 1-1 tie against Chelsea in the EPL thanks to a strike by former Chelsea midfielder Frank Lampard.  Man City followed that up with a 7-0 home win over Sheffield Wednesday in the Capital One Cup where all seven goals were scored in the second half.  Man City righted the ship in the EPL with a 4-2 win over Hull City on the road.  Man City closed out September with a 1-1 tie at home to AS Roma in their second of six Champions League group stage matches.  Finally Man City beat Aston Villa 2-0 on the road in the EPL to head into their second international break on a high note despite a couple uneven performances in September.

Here are my initial rankings of the roster for Man City at the second international break of the 2014-15 season:

1) Yaya Toure (M): In the off-season speculation swirled that Toure might leave the club after he was less than please with how Man City recognized his 31st birthday on May 13, 2014.  Keep in mind that happened just two days after Toure helped Man City win their second EPL title in three years...so much for enjoying their EPL title.  For how well Toure played in the EPL last season when he scored 20 goals, he started the 2014-15 EPL season with a hangover.  Still Toure's ability to dictate the pace of an entire match makes him one of the most irreplaceable players in the world, which means Man City need to sort out how they are going to fill their central midfield spots when they lose Toure for almost a month for the African Cup of Nations in early 2015.

2014-15 Player Rankings 1.0
1. Yaya Toure (M)
2. Sergio Aguero (F)
3. Vincent Kompany (D)
4. David Silva (M)
5. Pablo Zabaleta (D)
6. Samir Nasri (M)
7. Edin Dzeko (F)
8. Fernandinho (M)
9. Joe Hart (GK)
10. Jesus Navas (M)
11. James Milner (M)
12. Fernando (M)
13. Stevan Jovetic (F)
14. Eliaquim Mangala (D)
15. Aleksandar Kolarov (D)
16. Gael Clichy (D)
17. Martin Demichelis (D)
18. Willy Caballero (GK)
19. Bacary Sagna (D)
20. Matija Nastasic (D)
21. Dedryck Boyata (D)
22. Scott Sinclair (M) 

23. José Ángel Pozo (M)
24. Sinan Bytyqi (M)
25. Frank Lampard (M)
26. Richard Wright (GK)
9) Joe Hart (GK): When manager Manuel Pellegrini purchased goalkeeper Willy Caballero for $10 million from Malaga before the season, Hart must have wondered how secure his spot was as Man City's starting keeper.  In just the 3rd EPL match of the season Hart conceded a horrible nutmeg goal to Stoke for Man City to lose 1-0 at home, which really put his starting spot in question.  In an odd twist, just a few days later Hart signed a five-year contract extension with Man City, which had to give Hart some security.  Needless to say, the last few months have been a roller coaster for Hart.  If I were Pellegrini I would ride Hart at all cost but given that Pellegrini spent $10 million on Caballero, he is clearly not ready to ride Hart at all cost despite signing him to a five-year contract extension so it will be interesting to see how the starting goalkeeper position plays out this season for Man City.

14) Eliaquim Mangala (D): Man City have been searching for a central defender to slot next to Vincent Kompany for almost five seasons.  In my review of the 2014 Summer Transfer Window for Man City, I wondered how long it would take Mangala to perform well in the EPL. If Mangala's performance against Hull City (conceded an own goal and fouled a player in the box to concede a penalty) is any indication of how he will perform for the club over the long haul then Mangala picked up where Jolean Lescott and Matija Nastasic left off.  Sadly at this point that means that Martin Demichelis is a better option than Mangala next to Kompany.

25) Frank Lampard (M): My ranking of Lampard is a good illustration of how these rankings work.  Clearly Lampard is much more talented than 25th on the roster but he is on loan from Man City's MLS "sister" club New York City FC, which severely decreases his value since Man City has almost zero chance of keeping him long-term.  Lampard scored a goal against Chelsea to help Man City gut out a draw against his former club.  In a touch of class, Lampard did not celebrate his goal against Chelsea, which makes sense given that he scored the most goals in club history for Chelsea despite not even being a striker.  Lampard followed up that goal with two more against Sheffield Wednesday in the Capital One Cup and scored another goal against Hull City in the EPL.  Given Lampard's age, Man City can ill afford to start him regularly.  Instead they can use Lamard as a "super-sub" of sorts so they can get him into almost every match.  Once Lampard scored against Chelsea, the rumor mill of keeping Lampard on loan past January started and went into over drive after his performances against Sheffield Wednesday and Hull City.  I would be surprised if New York City FC was so accommodating to Man City unless they could get an outlandish fee from Man City for Lampard's services through the end of the 2014-15 EPL season, which doesn't seem likely given all the pressure Man City is under to comply with UEFA's Financial Fair Play Regulations.


Unless something major happens, make sure to check back after the next international break in early November for another Man City Report.

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Man City Report - 2014 Summer Transfer Window Review

There was a ton of roster turnover for Manchester City over the 2014 summer transfer window.  Sure most of the turnover was on the younger/developmental side of the roster but the current senior roster for Man City looks slightly different than the side that won the 2013-14 Capital One Cup & more importantly the Barclay's English Premier League.  Here is a look at all the business done by Man City over the 2014 summer transfer window:


Released/Free Transfers:
Players: midfielder Thomas Agyiri (released), winger Alex Henshall (free transfer), midfielder Kieran Kennedy (released), defender Joleon Lescott (free transfer), striker Alex Nimely (released), goalkeeper Costel Pantilimon (free transfer), defender George Swan (released), and defender Reece Wabara (released).
Analysis: The fact that Nimley was released was a mild surprise given that he is only 23 years old, which is too young to give up on a striker unless there are off the pitch issues we don't know about.  Besides that, the only real notable names that made any significant appearances for the senior side are Lescott and Pantilimon.  Man City purchased Lescott in the 2009 summer transfer window from Everton for $35 million in hopes that he would be one of their two central defender for the next decade.  Unfortunately Lescott's tenure in Man City was a bit uneven given his injury issues and lack of mobility.  I am sure that Lescott would have been a great central defender in the top tier of English football in the 1980's or 1990's because of his size but size alone does NOT make a successful central defender in the current EPL.  Pantilimon was briefly the 1st string keeper last season when Joe Hart struggle but Man City are on the cusp of making a commitment to Hart so hopefully Pantilimon can get 1st team action at Sunderland.  Given that absent injury he would have seen sparse first-team action for Man City over the next few seasons.


Loaned:
Players: midfielder Bismark Adjei-Boateng (Stromsgodset for 2014), striker Devante Cole (Barnsley through January 5, 2015), defender Jason Denayer (Celtic for the season), winger Godsway Donyoh (Falkenbergs FF for 2014), midfielder Adam Drury (St Mirren for the season), striker John Guidetti (Celtic for season), goalkeeper Eirik Holmen Johansen (Sandefjord through 2014), defender Greg Leigh (Crewe through 2014), midfielder Marcos Lopes (Lille for the season), goalkeeper Billy O'Brien (Hyde for the season), defender Ellis Plummer (St Mirren for the season), defender Karim Rekik (PSV Eindhoven for the season), winger Albert Rusnak (SC Cambuur through 2014), and midfielder Bruno Zuculini (Valencia CF for the season).
Analysis: The most notable name on the list is Devante Cole because he is the son of Andy Cole.  It is way too early to tell whether Devante will be anywhere as good as his father Andy though.  One thing is for sure though, Devante would be the 5th or 6th option for Man City up front right now so hopefully he will get more playing time at Barnsley.  Besides Cole, keep an eye on Zuculini because although he is only 21 years old, I could see him blossom into a quality box-to-box central midfielder with regular playing time elsewhere for the next couple seasons.


Loaned with "Option" to Sell
Players: striker Alvaro Negredo (Valencia for the season with $40 million purchase option) and defender Micah Richards (Fiorentina for the season with $2 million purchase option).
Analysis: Bummed to see Richards go, unfortunately his unlimited athletic promise was rarely on display given all of his injury issues.  Although Negredo is often injured, it is not the reason he was "loaned" to Valencia. The reason Negredo was loaned was that Man City is doing everything in their power to comply with the UEFA Financial Fair Play rules.  When healthy, there is no doubt that Negrado gives Man City a different striker than anyone else currently on the roster.  In fact, there were various points through the first half of last season that without Negrado that Man City would NOT have been able to stay within reach of the first place in the EPL.  Man City purchased Negrado from Sevilla for $27.5 million before the start of last season and could sell him for upwards of $40 million in their loan-to-buy deal with Valencia, which will help balance their books.  Mark my words, if Man City lose Aguero or Dzeko to injury for an extended period of time, they will struggle to stay at the top of the EPL table and thus will surely miss Negredo.


Sold:
Players: midfielder Gareth Barry (sold for $3 million to Everton), midfielder Javi Garcia (sold for $19 million to FC Zenit Saint Petersburg), midfielder Emyr Huws (sold for $4 million to Wigan), and midfielder Jack Rodwell (sold for $15 million to Sunderland).
Analysis: I was never a big Barry fan.  Sure Barry is a decent holding midfielder but he does not tackle that well and gives you very little going forward so I see him as just another guy.  Seems like Huws and Rodwell were not in Man City's long-term plans even though they are both relatively young so it is nice to see them get a chance for regular minutes elsewhere.  Given how well Garcia played in place of Fernandinho in central midfield along side Yaya Toure at the end of last season, I thought Garcia was in Man City's long-term plans but clearly I was wrong because Man City sold Garcia $19 million, which means they took a slight loss on him since they purchased him from Benfica for $24 million in the 2012 summer transfer window.  With such a strong roster, turnover is inevitable and none of the players sold would get regular first team action unless Man City suffer a number of injuries.


Purchased
Players: goalkeeper Willy Caballero ($11 million from Malaga), midfielder Fernando ($20 million from Porto), midfielder Frank Lampard (on loan from MLS club NYCFC), defender Eliaquim Mangala ($50 million from Porto), defender Bacary Sagna (free transfer from Arsenal), and midfielder Bruno Zuculini ($3.5 million from Racing Club).
Analysis: Man City was only allowed to spend $82 million due to their Financial Fair Play restrictions from UEFA, which meant that every dollar that Man City spent in the summer transfer window had to be spent wisely. Time will tell how much of an impact Caballero, Fernando, and Sagna will have because there are more talented players in front of them on the current roster in Joe Hart, Fernandinho, and Pablo Zabaleta. Man City was able to take Lampard on loan from their "sister" MLS expansion franchise New York City FC because they do NOT have their first MLS match till March of 2015.  It will be odd to see Lampard in a light blue jersey as opposed to a dark blue jersey given that he played for Chelsea from 2001 to 2014. With Zuculini out on loan that leaves Mangala.  It is only fitting that Mangala joins Man City as Lescott leaves the club because Mangala looks like a much younger and athletic version of Lescott.  Given how raw Mangala is right now, it will be interesting to see how long it will take the French international to get up to speed in the EPL after playing last season in the top league in Portugal.  Long-term I would be surprised if Mangala was as much of a bust as Lescott but in the short-term I see Mangala struggling to get regular first team appearances, which is not what you would expect from a player that commanded such an expensive transfer fee.


Contract Extensions Signed
Players: striker Sergio Agüero (5 years), striker Edin Dzeko (4 years), defender Aleksandar Kolarov (3 years), defender Vincent Kompany (5 years), winger Samir Nasri (5 years), and winger David Silva (5 years).
Analysis: The players just listed are some of the most important players on the current senior roster and the core that helped Man City win two EPL titles in the last three seasons, which makes each extension look good in a vacuum but the weekly wage of each player's extension was not disclosed so I cannot comment on their dollar amounts.  I can comment on the length of their contract extensions, which is my only nitpick.  Besides Dzeko and Kolarov, the lengths of the rest of the contract extensions were five years so Man City did not stagger their lengths.  That means that the core of the roster could go through a forced turnover at the same time when those contracts are due to run out when all the players will be in their early 30's so their transfer value will be fairly low.  Given that fact, I would have signed Nasri and possibly Silva to shorter deals.

Man City's roster is now set till 2015 so it will be interesting to see how the players mesh with each other given that Man City will have a ton of matches spread over the Capital One Cup, Champions League, FA Cup, and the EPL in the last four months of 2014.  Make sure to check back during the second international break for my initial rankings of Man City's roster.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Man City Report - UEFA Champions League Draw

Manchester City stubbed their toe to start the season losing 3-0 to Arsenal in the FA Community Shield, a match that is thankfully meaningless because it merely pits last season's FA Cup Champion (Arsenal) v. the English Premier League ("EPL") Champion (Man City) in a "showcase" match.  For how poorly the FA Community Shield went for Man City, they started their 2014-15 EPL campaign well with a 2-0 road win over Newcastle and followed that up with a 3-1 home win over Liverpool in their first home EPL match of the season.

I am working on a mega review of the summer transfer window for Man City but given that today the groups were drawn for the 2014-15 UEFA Champions League, I thought I would give my quick Man City centric thoughts on the draw.  By way of background, this is the fourth season in a row (and overall) that Man City is participating in the UEFA Champions League. Much like the World Cup draw, teams are split into four groups with some rules governing (e.g. clubs from the same country cannot be drawn into the same group) how the groups are drawn. 

In 2011-12 Man City drew Bayern Munich, Napoli and Villarreal in the group stage.  Although Man City played well in all six matches, they missed getting out of their group by one point.  In 2012-13 Man City drew Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid and Ajax in the group stage.   For how well Man City played in 2011-12 Champions League group stage, they played the exact opposite in 2012-13 Champions League group stage en route to finishing last in their group.

In 2013-14 Man City drew Bayern Munich, CSKA Moscow and Viktoria Plzeň in the group stage.  Third times a charm because Man City made it out of their group in the Champions League for the first time ever.  Unfortunately since Man City finished second in their group behind Bayern Munich and they drew Barcelona in the knockout stages.  Man City played decent in their home-and-home against Barcelona but ultimately Barcelona went through ahead of Man City.

Given that Man City won two of the last three EPL tittles, expectations are much higher for the club now than just a few seasons ago.  Given their domestic league success, European success is the next box that they need to check if they want to be considered one of the elite clubs in the world that starts with the 2014-15 UEFA Champions League.

Going into the group stage selections for 2014-15 UEFA Champions League, I decided to develop some power rankings for each group.  Just to make these rankings crystal clear, the first team in each pot is the team I would least like the Man City to be drawn against, so on and so forth.  It is sort of academic for Pot Two since the Man City cannot be drawn with any of those teams but I thought it would be a nice way for me to rank the teams as they are currently constituted.  Here are the four pots with my rankings (best to worst) within each pot:

Pot One: Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Chelsea, Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, Benfica, and Porto

Pot Two: Manchester City, Paris St-Germain, Borussia Dortmund, Juventus, Zenit St Petersburg, Schalke, Shakhtar Donetsk, and Basel

Pot Three: Bayer Leverkusen, Liverpool, Ajax, CSKA Moscow, Athletic Bilbao, Sporting Lisbon, Galatasaray, and Olympiakos

Pot Four: Roma, Monaco, Anderlecht, APOEL Nicosia, BATE Borisov, Ludogorets Razgrad, Malmo, and Maribor.

This may seem redundant but that means going into the draw I thought the best possible result for Man City was Porto, Olympiakos, and Maribor while the worst possible result was Bayern Munich, Bayer Leverkusen, and Roma.  Technically that draw would not be possible because Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen are both German clubs but you get the point of the thought experiment.  Again groups matter because only the top two teams from each group qualify for the knock-out stage.  Here is the full list of the groups for the 2014-15 UEFA Champions League:

Group A: Atletico Madrid, Juventus, Olympiakos, Malmo

Group B: Real Madrid, Basel, Liverpool, Ludogorets

Group C: Benfica, Zenit, Bayer Leverkusen, AS Monaco

Group D: Arsenal, Borussia Dortmund, Galatasaray, Anderlecht

Group E: Bayern Munich, Manchester City, CSKA Moscow, Roma

Group F: FC Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, Ajax, APOEL Nicosia

Group G: Chelsea, Schalke, Sporting Lisbon, Maribor

Group H: FC Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk, Athletic Bilbao, BATE Borisov

Well as luck would have it, Man City got almost the worst draw possible.  For the second year in a row, Man City are in the same group as Bayern Munich and CSKA Moscow.  Instead of having Viktoria Plzeň as the third member of their group this year, unfortunately they drew Roma.

I don't want to sound too defeatist but given Bayern's quality that essentially relegates Man City to playing for second place in the group.  CSKA Moscow is always a tough draw and Roma was placed in Pot Four because they have a lower co-efficient according to UEFA based on their most recent results in European competition but are always a plucky team.  Of all the clubs in Pot Four UEFA coefficient aside, I honestly think Roma should at least be in Pot Three.

In the World Cup, teams play each other once.  In the Champions League, every team plays each other twice: once at home and once on the road for six matches total.  Hopefully Man City will be able to navigate the "Group of Death" as well as the USMNT did at the 2014 World Cup when they advanced out of the group in second place behind Germany but ahead of Ghana and Portugal.  For that to happen, Man City will need to take maximum points at home (three wins would mean nine points) while either winning one match or drawing two matches on the road.

The summer transfer window closes on Monday, September 1, 2014.  The business that Man City does in the last few days if the summer transfer window will go a long way to determining how they perform in the Champions League this season.  Due to running afoul of UEFA's Financial Fair Play rules, Man City was (essentially) forced to sell players in the summer transfer window than it purchased.  Make sure to check back after the summer transfer window closes for my full breakdown of all the moves that Man City made during the summer transfer window to help them chase the quadruple (Capitol One Cup, EPL, FA Cup, and UEFA Champions League) this season.

Monday, May 12, 2014

Man City Report - Two Trophies out of Four Ain't Bad

There is no question that Manchester City has gone through a meteoric rise since I started following them in the mid-2000's.  I originally started following City because they were the underdogs in their own town employed midfielder Claudio Reyna from 2003-07.  Despite Reyna's injury history and gaffe against Ghana in the 2006 World Cup, he is still my all-time favorite member of the United States Men's National Team.  I am not trying to take credit for City's rise but when I started following City they were owned by Thaksin Shinawatra, the disgraced former prime minister of Thailand that has lived in self-imposed political exile in England since 2008.  Just a few years after I started following City, Shinawatra sold City to Abu Dhabi United Group Investment and Development Limited owned by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a member of the Abu Dhabi Royal Family.  As a result money has been flowing through the blue side of Manchester since 2008, which has recently gotten them in hot water with the Financial Fair Play rules.

After City won the Capital One Cup 3-1 over Sunderland, there was an outside chance that they could win four trophies this season.  At that point I thought there was an 85% chance they won the FA Cup, 51% chance they won the EPL, & 25% chance they won the Champions League.  As it turns out, City crashed out of the F.A. Cup at the hands of Wigan, the same team that beat them in the F.A. Cup Final in 2013 even though Wigan was relegated from the EPL last season. City crashed out of the Champions League at the hands of Barcelona.  That mean the only way City could hoist another trophy this season was to win the EPL.

When City lost 3-2 to Liverpool on the road on April 13th and barely tied Sunderland 2-2 at home on April 16th, it looked like they would have to settle for only one trophy this season given the cushion that they gave Liverpool.  Thankfully less than a fortnight later on April 27th, which will forever be known as "Brace Day" on the blue side of Manchester, City defeated Crystal Palace 2-0 on the road while Liverpool lost 2-0 at home to what amounted to Chelsea's second team.  The stumble by Liverpool on "Brace Day", pun intended as a shot at Liverpool captain Steven Gerrard's gaffe to gift Chelsea a goal, allowed City to regain control of their EPL destiny.  City won their final three matches 3-2 @ Everton, 4-0 over Aston Villa, and 2-0 over West Ham to win their second EPL title in three years.  Here are my final rankings projecting their transfer value going into the summer transfer window along with my thoughts on a few of the unsung heroes of City's 2013-14 EPL Champion squad:

Player Rankings
1. Yaya Toure (M, LR 1)
2. Vincent Kompany (D, LR 3)
3. Sergio Aguero (F, LR 2) 
4. David Silva (M, LR 4)
5. Edin Dzeko (F, LR 8)
6. Samir Nasri (M, LR 6)
7. Fernandinho (M, LR 9)  
8. Joe Hart (GK, LR 11)
9
. Alvaro Negredo (F, LR 5)

10. Pablo Zabaleta (D, LR 10)
11. Jesus Navas (M, LR 7) 
12. Stevan Jovetic (F, LR 12)
13. Aleksandar Kolarov (D, LR 13)
14. Javi Garcia (M, LR 17)
15. James Milner (M, LR 14)
16. Gael Clichy (D, LR 15)
17. Matija Nastasic (D, LR 16)
18. Micah Richards (D, LR 19)
19. Jack Rodwell (M, LR 20)
20. Martin Demichelis (D, LR 21)
21. Dedryck Boyata (D, LR 22)
22. Alex Nimely (F, LR 23)
23. Marcos Lopes (M, LR 26)
24. Joleon Lescott (D, LR 18)
25. Costel Pantilimon (GK, LR 24)
26. Erik Johansen (GK, LR 25)
27. Richard Wright (GK, LR 27)
5) Edin Dzeko (F, LR 8): I talked about selling Dzeko to help balance the books in my look at the January Transfer Window.  In fairness to me, at that time Aguero and Negredo were the preferred strikers while Jovetic looked like he was going to finally be healthy.  As a result, I thought City could get by without Dzeko.  Boy was I wrong.  Dzeko ended up scoring big goal after big goal in the second half of the season, which was huge given the injuries to Aguero and cold streak that plagued Negredo. I am still not sure Dzeko deserves to wear the #10 jersey for City but without his services I don't think City would have finished any higher than 3rd or 4th in the table this season so maybe that gives him the right to wear the #10 jersey for City.

10) Pablo Zabaleta (D, LR 10): This season cemented Zabaleta's legacy as one of the best defenders in club history.  At left back this season City switched between Kolarov and Clichy to keep both players fresh since City made deep runs in the F.A. Cup, Champions League, and Capital One Cup.  The thought going into the season is that City would do the same at right back with Richards and Zabaleta but Richards continued to struggle with injuries so Zabaleta pulled what amounted to double-duty relative to his teammates at left back.  Zabaleta was one of the first players purchased in 2008, just a few years after I started following City. There is no question that Zabaleta is a member of my personal City Mount Rushmore.

14) Javi Garcia (M, LR 17): An injury to Fernandino with less than a month to go in the season thrust Garcia into the Starting XI in the central midfield for City's last few matches of the season.  Earlier in the season Garcia struggled when he played extended minutes but thankfully he learned from his struggles to serve as a perfect defensive cover to Toure, which allowed Toure to push forward to create numerous scoring chances each match.  Just six months ago I thought Garcia would be a part of a sham transfer to NYCFC to help balance the books to comply with UEFA's Financial Fair Play Regulations but if  Garcia can carry his end of the season form into next season, he could push for regular playing time in central midfield ahead of Fernandinho.

20) Martin Demichelis (D, LR 21): I guess 7th times a charm given that Demichelis won two Argentine Premera Division Championships (2001-02 & 2002-03) and four Bundesliga Championships (2004-05, 2005-06, 2007-08, & 2009-10).  I've been critical of Demichelis throughout this season but there is no question that he made amends throughout the season to become an integral partner in central defense with Kompany given that Nastasic was injured for most of the season.  I know Atlético Madrid got Demichelis from Málaga on a free transfer just a few months earlier but as crazy as it sounds, Demichelis was the most cost-effective member of the team this season since City was able to purchase his services from for £4.2 million.  I am not sure that City would fetch £4.2 million for Demichelis right now, which is why he is so low in the rankings.  Much like Dzeko, if Demichelis' form did not improve in the 2nd half of the season, City would not be the 2013-14 EPL Champions.

City has to deal with the repercussions of their alleged violations of UEFA's Financial Fair Play Regulations, which could severely impact their plans to reload their already stacked squad in the summer transfer window.  With the 2013-14 season in the rear view mirror, make sure to check back in this space over the next few weeks for my thoughts on how City can navigate this all important summer transfer window.

Man City Report - 38 Stats on 38 Matches for Man City's 2013-14 Premier League Title


Yesterday Manchester City, my favorite English Premier League club, won their second league title in three seasons.  For those less familiar with the EPL, there are 20 clubs in the league.  The club in the EPL with the most points after 38 matches, one home and one away against each of the other 19 clubs, are crowned champions of the EPL.  Sure clubs can catch breaks throughout the EPL season by facing clubs when they are short-handed due to suspension or injury but I love totaling points of an even schedule to crown a winner based on their total body of work almost the entire season.  In honor of City being the most successful club of the 20 in the EPL over their respective 38 EPL matches in the 2013-14 season, here are 38 facts from City's 38 matches in their memorable 2013-14 title winning season:

38: matches played with 27 (wins), 5 (ties), and 6 (loses).

37: number of goals conceded.

36: fouls suffered by left back Aleksandar Kolarov, 2nd most for the club.

35: matches started by midfielder Yaya Touré, most for the club.

34: points earned away from home in 19 matches.

33: appearances (29 starts and 4 as a substitute) by midfielder Fernandinho, which is 4th most for the club.

32: matches where points were earned with 27 wins (earn 3 points) and 5 ties (earn 1 point) for 86 points.

31: starts by goalkeeper Joe Hart.

30: points last place Cardiff City amassed in the EPL, including a 3-2 home victory over City, which was City's first away match of the 2013-14 EPL season.

29: total appearances by midfielder James Milner (12 starts and 19 as a substitute).

28: starts by captain and central defender Vincent Kompany.

27: shots on goal by Yaya Touré that resulted in 20 goals.

26: starts by midfielder David Silva.

25: changes at the top of the table throughout the 2013-14 EPL season.

24: goals conceded in 19 away matches, City scored 39 en route to 10 (wins), 4 (ties), and 5 (loses).

23: players that appeared in the EPL for Man City this season, the least amount of players used by any team in the EPL: Sergio Aguero (F), Dedryck Boyata (D), Gael Clichy (D), Martin Demichelis (D), Edin Dzeko (F), Fernandinho (M), Javi Garcia (M), Joe Hart (GK), Stevan Jovetic (F), Aleksandar Kolarov (D), Vincent Kompany (D), Joleon Lescott (D), James Milner (M), Samir Nasri (M), Matija Nastasic (D), Jesus Navas (M), Alvaro Negredo (F), Costel Pantilimon (GK), Micah Richards (D), Jack Rodwell (M), David Silva (M), Yaya Toure (M), and Pablo Zabaleta (D).

22: fouls committed by Vincent Kompany that resulted in six yellow cards and one red card.

21: consecutive league goals scored from November 2nd through December 4th, unfortunately the final one was an own goal by goalkeeper Costel Pantilimon.

20: goals scored by Yaya Touré, most for the club & 3rd most in the entire EPL.

19: times midfielder James Milner was used as a substitute, most for the club.

18: points dropped in six loses.

17: goals by Sergio Agüero in the EPL this season, 2nd most for the club.

16: clean sheets for City.

15: times midfielder Javi Garcia was used as a substitute, 2nd most for club.

14: days this season that City were at the top of the EPL table coming into the last day of the 2013-14 EPL season.

13: goals conceded in 19 home matches, City scored 63 en route to 17 (wins), 1 (tie), and 1 (loss).

12: points earned in four matches against Europa League bound Everton and Tottenham.

11: Joe Hart (GK), Pablo Zabaleta (RB), Vincent Kompany (CB), Martín Demichelis (CB), Aleksandar Kolarov (LB), Samir Nasri (RW), Javi Garcia (CM), Yaya Touré (CM), David Silva (LW), Edin Dzeko (S), and Sergio Agüero (S) were the starting 11 for City at home against West Ham in their final, title clinching match of the season.

10: players that started at least one match as a defender.

9: assists by David Silva and Yaya Touré, tied for most for the club.

8: appearances as a substitute by striker Edin Dzeko.

7: goals by David Silva and Samir Nasri, tied for 5th most for the club.

6: goal difference in Manchester Derbies in favor of City thanks to a 4-1 win at home and a 3-0 win on the road.

5: jersey number of right back Pablo Zabaleta, the unsung hero of the club this season because his impact doesn't usually show-up on the stat sheet.

4: top flight English league titles in club history: 1936-37, 1967-68, 2011-12, and 2013-14.

3: managers to win the EPL title in their first season in charge: Manuel Pellegrini (City 2013-14), Jose Mourinho (Chelsea for 2004-05 season), and Carlo Ancelotti (Chelsea for 2009-10 season).

2: goals scored (Nasri and Kompany) against West Ham in their final match of the season to clinch the EPL title, they second 102 total.

1: team at the top of the EPL table at the end of the season ... Manchester City.

Monday, March 3, 2014

Man City Report - One Down, Three to Go

Going into the 2013-14 season Manchester City previously won 15 major trophies: three English First Division/Premier League titles (1936-37, 1967-68, & 2011-12), five FA Cups (1904, 1934, 1956, 1969, & 2011), two League Cups (1970 & 1976), four FA Community Shields (1937, 1968, 1972, & 2012), and one European Cup Winners' Cup (1970).  This season City had lofty aspirations of winning four trophies: UEFA Champions League, English (aka Barclays) Premier League, FA Cup, and Capital One (aka League) Cup.  To put those aspirations in perspective, no English team has ever won the three major domestic trophies in the same season so City set a very ambitious goal.  Given that City beat Sunderland 3-1 in the 2014 Capital One Cup Final yesterday, I thought it was a good time to take stock of City's chances to hoist four trophies this season.

With the Capital One Cup trophy in had, let's move on to the FA Cup.  City are looking to win the title this season after they lost to Wigan in the final last season.  City knocked off Chelsea at home in the 5th round of the FA Cup less than two weeks after they lost to Chelsea at home in the EPL for their first home loss of the 2013-14 EPL season.  Ironically City now host Wigan in the quarterfinals of the FA Cup.  The other three quarterfinal matches are: Arsenal against Everton, Hull City against Sunderland, and Sheffield United against Charlton Athletic.  If City defeat Wigan, clearly the winner of the Arsenal v. Everton match posses the biggest threat.  Given that semifinal match ups will not be drawn until the field is winnowed down to four clubs, there is a chance City could avoid Arsenal or Everton altogether, which would drastically improve their chances of winning the FA Cup.

Player Rankings
1. Yaya Toure (M, LR 1)
2. Sergio Aguero (F, LR 3)
3. Vincent Kompany (D, LR 2)
4. David Silva (M, LR 4)
5. Alvaro Negredo (F, LR 5) 
6. Samir Nasri (M, LR 11)
7. Jesus Navas (M, LR 6) 
8. Edin Dzeko (F, LR 10)
9. Fernandinho (M, LR 7)
10. Pablo Zabaleta (D, LR 8)
11. Joe Hart (GK, LR 9)
12. Stevan Jovetic (F, LR 14)
13. Aleksandar Kolarov (D, LR 13)
14. James Milner (M, LR 15)
15. Gael Clichy (D, LR 12)
16. Matija Nastasic (D, LR 16)
17. Javi Garcia (M, LR 17)
18. Joleon Lescott (D, LR 18)
19. Micah Richards (D, LR 19)
20. Jack Rodwell (M, LR 20)
21. Martin Demichelis (D, LR 21)
22. Dedryck Boyata (D, LR 22)
23. Alex Nimely (F, LR 24)
24. Costel Pantilimon (GK, LR 23)
25. Erik Johansen (GK, LR 25)
26. Marcos Lopes (M, LR 26)
27. Richard Wright (GK, LR 27)
After City lost to Chelsea in the EPL at the beginning of February, they tied Norwich 0-0 on the road (beat them 7-0 at home in the corresponding fixture earlier this season).  As if a road tie against Norwich was not bad enough, I was forced to watch a grainy/choppy version of the match at Starbucks.  The connective shutouts that Chelsea and Norwich dealt City marked the first time that City failed to score in consecutive games in the EPL since January 1, 2012.  Following two lackluster performances in the EPL, City barely beat Stoke 1-0 at home thanks to a goal by midfielder Yaya Toure.  Keep in mind City had the best home record in the EPL while Stoke had the worst road record in the league.  All told that means City earned merely four points over their last three Premier League matches.  Despite their dip in form in the EPL, City still controls their own destiny even though they are currently in 4th place in the table behind Chelsea, Liverpool, and Arsenal because City have two games in hand.  Obviously every match will matter down the stretch but they have a huge four match stretch starting at the end of March: away against Manchester United (03/25), away against Arsenal (03/29), home against Southampton (04/05), and away against Liverpool (04/13).  Taking all 12 points (4 wins) would be a dream scenario but 10 points (3 wins and 1 draw) is probably the minimum if City want to win the EPL.

City finished second in their Champions League qualification group to qualify for the knockout round of the Champions League for the first time in club history.  The downside of City finishing second in their group was they they drew a club that won their group.  Unfortunately that meant City drew Barcelona, which marked the first time the clubs played each other in a competitive match.  City hosted Barcelona in the first leg of their home-and-home series, which City lost 2-0 thanks in large part to Martin Demichelis getting sent off when he took down Lionel Messi just outside the penalty box. The referee ruled that the offense occurred in the box and Messi converted the penalty kick.  Dani Alves scored in stoppage time to put City in a borderline insurmountable hole.  If City are able to overturn their 2-0 deficit, it will be without the services of their manager Manuel Pellegrini since UEFA handed him a two match ban for his seething comments about the referee's performance in City's 2-0 loss to Barcelona.

When clubs like City are spread across so many competitions, they almost need to have two full starting lineups.  City have that covered at goalkeeper (Hart & Pantilimon), right back (Zabaleta & Richards), left back (Clichy & Kolarov), winger (Silva, Navas, & Nasari), and aerial striker (Negrado & Dzeko).  Unfortunately City do not have that covered at the important positions of central defender, central midfield, and attacking midfielder/withdrawn striker.  News broke recently that City will purchase center midfielder Bruno Zuculini from Racing Club for merely £3 million.  Sadly City will not be able to use Zuculini's services until next season, which might be too late if City actually wants to win more than one trophy this season
.  With the Capital One Cup already in the trophy case I would give City a 85% chance of winning the FA Cup, 51% chance of winning the EPL, and 25% chance of winning the Champions League.