Monday, December 9, 2013

The 53 - Packers beat the Falcons at home

The Green Bay Packers held a slight edge all-time against the Atlanta Falcons, 15-13 (including playoffs) coming into their Week 14 match-up.  Before the season it looked like this game could be an NFC Championship Game preview.  Instead heading into the game the Packers were 5-6-1 while the Falcons were 3-9.

The Packers were without the services of starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers due to a broken collarbone for essentially the sixth game in a row so the Packers started Matt Flynn ahead of Scott Tolzien in hopes of getting their first victory of 2013 sans Rodgers, so far they've gone 0-4-1.

A family friend Brother Patrick gave me four tickets to the Packers/Falcons game but I was unable to attend what would have been my fourth Packer game of this season so my cousin Jim and his family used the tickets.  I hope that my family got to enjoy some of this pregame fun.

At kickoff the weather reminded me of two previous Packers/Falcons games.  On the negative side of the coin I thought of when the Michael Vick lead Falcons dealt the Packers their first playoff loss in franchise history at Lambeau Field (previously 13-0) beating the Packers 27-7.  I watched that playoff loss at a bar in Florida with Fernando, Gaber, and Sug after we had just drove straight from Chicago to my parent's place in Punta Gorda, FL.  On the positive side of the coin I thought of the last NFL game ever played at County Stadium in Milwaukee on December 18, 1994 when Brett Favre rushed for a touchdown on the last play of the game to give the Packers a 21-17 victory over the Falcons.

The inactives for the Packers against the Falcons were: Kahlil Bell (RB, healthy scratch), Chris Harper (WR, healthy scratch), Marshall Newhouse (T, healthy scratch), Nate Palmer (LB, healthy scratch), Aaron Rodgers (QB, broken collarbone), C.J. Wilson (DL, ankle), and Jerel Worthy (DL, healthy scratch).

The Packers won the toss and elected to defer to the second half, which gave the Falcons the ball to start the game.  The Falcons put together a good drive setting up a 4th and 2 at the Green Bay 35 yard-line but for some reason Falcons head coach Mike Smith decided to punt. Given that the Falcons were 3-9, it seemed like a gutless call.  What do the Falcons have to loss in that situation?  The Packers capitalized on the following possession scoring a touchdown on an impressive 18 play, 86-yard drive that resulted in a one yard touchdown run by rookie running back Eddie Lacy.  One footnote to the opening touchdown drive for the Packers, it was kept alive by a defensive holding penalty by rookie linebackers Paul Worrilow.

The Falcons evened the score 7-7 in the second quarter on a 36-yard catch and run by wide receiver Drew Davis for a touchdown.  Packers middle linebacker Brad Jones failed to get home on a blitz on that play so Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was able to hang in the pocket and connect with Davis right in the spot where Jones would have been if he was not blitzing.  I feel like a broken record but it seems like every time the Packers blitz a middle linebacker, whether its Jones or A.J. Hawk, neither seem to get home.  Oddly both of those players struggle to cover tight ends and running backs as well.  I guess damned if you do, damned if you don't with Hawk and Jones.

Following the touchdown the Packers took over at their own 23 yard-line.  Lacy did not pick up the blitz on the first play from scrimmage and Flynn was sacked by Falcons safety William Moore.  Flynn fumbled the ball and Falcons recovered at the Green Bay 13 yard-line.  The Falcons turned that great field position into a touchdown to go up 14-7 thanks to a short touchdown catch by Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez with safety Morgan Burnett totally burned by the play fake on that play.

On the following drive the Packers put together a nice drive that resulted in field goal to make the score 14-10.  Based on a few throws on that drive Flynn still looks shaky throwing deep.  On the following series the Packers defense finally got a stop to give the Packers the ball with 2:20 left in the half.  After the Packers moved the ball fairly well on offense, it looked like their playoff hopes were flushed down the toilet when on a pick-six gave the Falcons a 21-10 lead.  The pick-six was set-up by an errant throw by Flynn looking to hit fullback John Kuhn that was kicked into the air by Worrilow.  Falcons linebacker Sean Witherspoon caught the kicked ball and returned it 71-yards for a touchdown.

The Packers got the ball back down 21-10 on their own 32-yard line with 23 seconds left in the first half.  Packers head coach Mike McCarthy actually had the offense run plays instead of kneeling.  Lacy got hurt on the third and final play called by McCarthy.  I know Lacy can get hurt on any play but I would rather see the Packers only expose Lacy when there is a remote chance that they can score, which is not an inside hand-off on 3rd and 10 from their own 32-yard line with a few seconds in the half.  Thus the Packers went into halftime on quite a sour note with the fans actually booing and me speculating that McCarthy should replace Flynn with Tolzien.

Leaving the playoff implications aside, it is too bad that the game was going so bad at halftime because the Packers honored recent NFL Hall of Fame inductee linebacker Dave Robinson.  Robinson teared up a couple times during the classy ceremony lead by former Packer center and Packer radio commentator Larry McCarren.  Robinson seemed really touched by the whole event based on his post-game interview.

Following Robinson's ceremony, the second half started with a whimper for both teams as the Packers and Falcons traded three-and-outs.  On the next drive, the Packers got into field goal range thanks to an impressive 46-yard pitch and catch between Flynn and wide receiver Jordy Nelson.  If Flynn would have hit Nelson in stride that probably would have been a touchdown. You know any time that I can get in a criticism of McCarthy, I seize the opportunity.  I would have gone for it when McCarthy decided to attempt a field goal on 4th and 3 at the Atlanta 15.  Place kicker Mason Crosby converted the 33-yard field goal to pull the Packers within eight points at 21-13 but my thinking was that the Packers would only get into the red zone a few more times given Flynn's inability to drive the ball down the field.

The Packers defense had another nice stop on the next drive but the offense was only able to muster another field goal on the next drive to cut the score to 21-16.   The Packers have struggled to convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns all season but I would bet that Rodgers converts at least one of the two field goal drives just discussed into touchdowns.

As the 4th quarter started, Fox flashed a stat that the Packers defense has given up 107 points in 4th quarter this season, which is the most in the NFL...yikes.  Luckily the Packers clamped down when outside linebacker Mike Neal stripped Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan and Packers defensive lineman Johnny Jolly recovered the fumble.

The Packers took over at the Atlanta 21 yard-line with 13:50 remaining in the game and the Packers trailed the Falcons by five points.  That drive resulted in a nice touchdown catch by tight end Andrew Quarless to make the score 22-21.  McCarthy made the right decision going for two but made the wrong play call trying to run a fade route to wide receiver James Jones that fell incomplete.  I would have liked to see a run in that situation given the fact that the Packers have a wrecking ball in the backfield in Lacy.  The touchdown and missed two-point conversion put the Packers up 22-21 with 12 minutes to play.

On the next drive the Falcons missed a 52-yard field goal by two yards.  On the play before the kick Jolly tackled running back Jason Snelling for two yard loss, which you could argue was the difference between the Packers leading 22-21 and going down 24-22 given how close the Falcons were on their field goal attempt.

On the next drive the Packers couldn't get anything going so they went three-and-out.  Following a punt by the Packers, the Falcons got the ball back at their own 17 yard-line with 4:38 left in the game.  On that drive the Packers lost Brad Jones to an injury.  On the following play the Packers lost Jolly and Jones's replacement middle linebacker Jamari Lattimore, which forced the Packers to play cornerback/safety Jarrett Bush in the dime for the rest of the game.

The Falcons moved the ball a little but coming out of the two minute warning the Falcons faced a 4th and 5 from the Green Bay 33 yard-line.  Instead of attempting a 50-yard field goal, the Falcons went for it.  Ryan found Gonzalez for a first down but Gonzalez dropped the ball with Bush covering him.  It looked like Gonzalez should have caught Ryan's pass despite Bush's blanket coverage.

That meant the Packers got the ball back with 1:55 remaining in the game up 22-21.  Following three runs by Lacy, the Packers were forced to punt with a little less than a minute remaining in the game.  After a perfect punt by Tim Mastay, the gunners for the Packers Bush and cornerback Davon House tried to get out of the way instead of attempting to down the ball on the one yard-line because their momentum most likely would pushed the ball into the end zone for a touchback.  Falcons punt returner Robert McClain picked up the ball and returned it eight yards to give the Falcons the ball with no timeouts and 46 seconds on the clock at their own 9 yard-line.

After picking up 48 yards through the air on a couple plays that could have been more if Falcons wide receiver Harry Douglas did not drop a simple catch to get the Falcons in field goal range, the Falcons faced a 3rd and 10 from their own 40 yard-line.  Ryan went to Douglas again but he was triple covered. Bush intercepted Ryan's pass to give the Packers their first win in six games, which means that the Packers have gone 363 games since their last six-game winless streak, the 4th longest in NFL history.

I've linked to as many plays above as I could from Packers.com, click here for the full highlights of the Packers/Falcons game.  Thanks to their win over the Falcons, the Packers won their 14th consecutive regular season game at Lambeau Field in December/January.  That streak started on Sunday, December 28, 2008 with a 31-21 win over the Detroit Lions to finish the 2008 regular season 6-10 in Rodgers's first season as the starter for the Packers.  That is sort of a hallow streak though because the Packers lost to the New York Giants two seasons ago at home in the playoffs.  Papa Cheese and I attended that game in-person so that sad 37-20 loss on Sunday, January 15, 2012 is seared in my memory.  I actually got to talk with McCarren for a few minutes following the Packers/Giants game and he seemed just as bummed as me, which made the loss a little more palatable for me.

The win for the Packers means they improved to 6-6-1.  The Lions lost on the road in a snow globe to the Philadelphia Eagles to drop to 7-6.  The 6-6 Chicago Bears host the 7-5 Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  Even if the Bears beat the Cowboys, the Packers will only trail the Bears and Lions by 1/2 game with three games to play.  Here are my updated rankings for The 53 following the Packers/Falcons game:

The 53
1. Aaron Rodgers (QB, LR 1)
2. Clay Matthews (OLB, LR 2) 
3. Jordy Nelson (WR, LR 3)
4. Eddie Lacy (RB, LR 7)
5. B.J. Raji (DL, LR 8)
6. T.J. Lang (G, LR 4)
7. Morgan Burnett (S, LR 5)
8. Josh Sitton (G, LR 6)
9. Evan Dietrich-Smith (C, LR 11)
10. James Jones (WR, LR 9)
11. David Bakhtiari (T, LR 10)
12. Sam Shields (CB, LR 13)
13. Mike Daniels (DL, LR 12)
14. Tramon Williams (CB, LR 14)
15. Don Barclay (T, LR 16)
16. Nick Perry (OLB, LR 17)
17. Brad Jones (MLB, LR 15)
18. A.J. Hawk (MLB, LR 18)
19. Davon House (CB, LR 19)
20. Micah Hyde (CB, LR 21)
21. Datone Jones (DL, LR 20)
22. Jarrett Boykin (WR, LR 22)
23. Tim Masthay (P, LR 23)
24. Mike Neal (DL/OLB, LR 24)
25. Johnny Jolly (DL, LR 25)
26. Jerel Worthy (DE, LR 28)
27. Ryan Pickett (DL, LR 26)
28. Mason Crosby (K, LR 27)
29. Matt Flynn (QB, LR 30)
30. Jamari Lattimore (LB, LR 29)
31. Derek Sherrod (T, LR 37)
32. Jarrett Bush (CB, LR 31)
33. Brett Goode (LS, LR 35)
34. Andrew Quarless (TE, LR 38)
35. James Starks (RB, LR 34)
36. Sean Richardson (S, LR 43)
37. Scott Tolzien (QB, LR 32)
38. M.D. Jennings (S, LR 33)
39. Brandon Bostick (TE, LR 40)
40. John Kuhn (FB, LR 36)
41. Ryan Taylor (TE, LR 42)
42. Josh Boyd (DL, LR 49)
43. C.J. Wilson (DL, LR 41)
44. Chris Banjo (S, LR 39)
45. Andy Mulamba (LB, LR 44)
46. Myles White (WR, LR 46)
47. Lane Taylor (G, LR 47)
48. Jake Stoneburner (TE, LR 48)
49. Victor Aiyewa (LB, LR 51)
50. Marshall Newhouse (T, LR 50)
51. Nate Palmer (LB, LR 52) 
52. Chris Harper (WR, LR 53)
53. Kahlil Bell (RB, LR N/A)
Physically Unable to Perform
1. JC Tretter (T)
IR, Designated for Return
1. Randall Cobb (WR)
Injured Reserve
1. Jermichael Finley (TE)
2. Bryan Bulaga (T)
3. Casey Hayward (CB, LR 16)
4. DuJuan Harris (RB)
5. Jonathan Franklin (RB)
6. Robert Francois (MLB)
7. Greg Van Roten (C/G)
8. Sam Barrington (LB)
9. Seneca Wallace (QB)
10. James Nixon (CB, LR 53)
11. Kevin Dorsey (WR)
12. Sederrik Cunningham (WR)
Cut
1. Jeremy Ross (WR, Lions)
2. Jerron McMillian (S, free agent)
3. Michael Hill (RB, Buccaneers)
3) Jordy Nelson (WR, LR 3): After wearing a green Donald Driver #80 jersey since 2010, Cheesehead Chick broke in her new jersey for the Packers/Falcons game...a green Jordy Nelson #87 jersey.  Nelson caught four passes for 85 yards, which is much better than last time Cheesehead Chick broke-in a new jersey.  I was excited for Cheesehead Chick to get a jersey so we snagged her the aforementioned Driver jersey from the Packers Pro Shop.  That game, Week 7 of the 2010 season at home against the Vikings, Driver broke his 133 game streak with at least one reception.  Luckily Cheesehead Chick was a not a cooler for Nelson like she was for Driver.

4) Eddie Lacy (RB, LR 7): Going into the game the the Falcons allowed a 100-yard rusher in nine consecutive games.  Although the Packers broke that streak, Lacy still had 20 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown.  Lacy also had three receptions for 25 yards.  Lacy has a great combination of patience and violent running style, which makes him a handful for defenses.  I wanted to get a Lacy jersey much earlier this season when I attended the Packers/Browns game but was unable to procure the jersey back in October.  I am very superstitious about what I wear for Packer games so I am happy to be 1-0 wearing the Lacy jersey.

9) Evan Dietrich-Smith (C, LR 11): A knee injury knocked EDS out of the Packers' Thanksgiving loss to the Lions, which was complicated by the fact that he sprained his ankle in practice earlier this week.  Luckily EDS was healthy enough to play against the Falcons because the Packers do not have another true center on The 53 given that right guard T.J. Lang filled in at center against the Philadelphia Eagles for the first time in his career.  The Falcons registered five sacks against the Packers but at least a few of those sacks are on Flynn's inability to get the ball out.  Given the offensive line struggles the last few weeks, can you imagine how things would have been sans EDS?

25) Johnny Jolly (DL, LR 25): Following Jolly's fumble recovery, Cheesehead Chick actually asked if Jolly lost weight.  I honestly think that is the first time in my entire life I've ever heard someone ask whether Jolly lost weight.  Leaving the weight discussion aside, it looks like Jolly is finally healthy again so he is starting to wreak havoc in the backfield again.  As I discussed a few weeks back, the Packers have four defensive lineman including Jolly that are set to be free agents this off-season.  Given Jolly's off-the-field issues, I think that makes him the most cost-effective option but I actually see Jolly getting more than the three-year, $7.5 million with $2 million guaranteed than I projected just a few weeks back.  If Jolly continues to play like he did against the Falcons.

29) Matt Flynn (QB, LR 30): The Packers ran a fair amount of no-huddle on offense against the Falcons.  As I discussed the way the Packers handled the last few minutes of the first half above, it seems like Flynn is not able to execute the no-huddle when it matters though.  Leaving aside the 46-yard hook-up between Flynn and Nelson, I still question whether Flynn can consistently drive the ball down field.  Flynn finished 24 for 32 throwing for 258 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception for a 95.6 passer rating in what I hope is Flynn's last snap for the Packers.

32) Jarrett Bush (CB, LR 31): The Falcons receivers did Ryan no favors with 5 drops but even factoring in the drops, I was nervous to see Bush playing in crunch time due to injuries to Jones and Lattimore. Bush had his best coverage of the day on the interception that sealed the victory for the Packers.  As I've said many times, it is never good to see Bush on the field on defense but he actually played fairly well when thrust into duty following all the injuries the Packers suffered on defense.

34) Andrew Quarless (TE, LR 38): Six catches for 66 yards and a touchdown is clearly Quarless's best game as a Packer but those performances have been the exception to the rule as opposed to the norm throughout his career in Green Bay.  Two other tight ends on The 53 added two catches a piece against the Falcons: Bostick for 28 yards and Taylor for seven yards.  Collectively that gave the Packers 10 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown, which is the type of production the Packers need to get out of the tight end position from one guy not three guys combined. Taylor is a core special teams player so his position is safe.  The big question is whether Bostick can become the athletic hybrid tight end/wide receiver the Packers think they have in Bostick.  If Bostick can become that guy, the Packers might low-ball Quarless this off-season or even let him walk.

36) Sean Richardson (S, LR 43): I've discussed a number of times in this space how I see Richardson's physical abilities making him a difference maker at safety.  After M.D. Jennings struggled in the first half against the Falcons, it looked like Richardson got an extended look in the second half when the defense as a whole looked much better.  My guess is that Richardson is the starter opposite Morgan Burnett at safety for the foreseeable future with Jennings and Chris Banjo serving as backups.

The Packers are 1-4-1 since Rodgers broke his collarbone on the first offensive series against the Bears on Monday Night Football on November 4, 2013.  The Packers go on the road next week to face the Dallas Cowboys on December 15, 2013 in the same stadium that Rodgers and Company won Super Bowl XLV over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The original prognosis was that Rodgers would be out four to six weeks.  The Packers/Cowboys game would be the outer edge of six weeks.  Based on Rodgers waiting till Friday to be declared out against the Falcons this week, the hope is that another week will allow his collarbone to fully heal. Given that the Packers are right in the middle of the face to win the NFC North, the speculation all week will be whether Rodgers is healthy enough to help the Packers on their stretch run to the playoffs.

Check back if there are any changes to The 53, otherwise make sure to catch Monday Night Football tonight when the Cowboys visit the Bears because those are two of the final three opponents the Packers face to close the 2013 regular season.

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Building The 23 - USMNT 1.0 for 2014 World Cup

The United States Men's National Team manager Jurgen Klinsmann can take 23 players to the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.  Yesterday I covered the United States being drawn into the toughest group in the 2014 World Cup with Germany, Ghana, and Portugal.  Much like I do with Building The 53 for the Green Bay Packers, Building The 25 for the Milwaukee Brewers, and Building The 15 for the Milwaukee Bucks...I am about to do the same for the United States with Building The 23.  Without further adu, let's turn our attention to speculating on the 23 guys Klinsmann should take to Brazil.

Traditionally the breakdown of The 23 is 3 goalkeepers, 8 defenders, 8 midfielders, and 4 strikers.  Besides goalkeeper, some of the players drawn into defense or up front could also slide into the midfielder so those are not hard and fast numbers.  Here are my initial thoughts about the players Klinsmann should select for The 23.

Goalkeeper (3): Tim Howard, Brad Guzan, and Nick Rimando.
Starter: Tim Howard
Analysis: Luckily Klinsmann has the benefit of having two legitimate starting goalkeepers in Howard and Guzan.  I think it is highly unlikely to happen but I wonder what Guzan would have to do to unseat Howard.

Defenders (8): DaMarcus Beasley, Matt Besler, John Brooks, Geoff Cameron, Steve Cherundolo, Brad Evans, Clarence Goodson, and Omar Gonzalez.
Starters: DaMarcus Beasley (LB), Matt Besler (CB), Omar Gonzalez (CB), Steve Cherundolo (RB)
Analysis: After Cherundolo held down the starting right back spot for essentially the last decade, injuries have hampered his form in 2013.  Given there are six more months until the 2014 World Cup, I see Cherundolo doing everything humanly possible to be in form by the start of the 2014 World Cup.

Midfield (8): Kyle Beckerman, Michael Bradley, Mix Diskerud, Landon Donovan, Fabian Johnson, Jermaine Jones, Brek Shea, and Graham Zusi.
Starters: Landon Donovan (LW), Michael Bradley (CM), Jermaine Jones (CM), Graham Zusi (RW)
Analysis: Absent injuries, Bradley and Donovan are locks to start in Brazil.  That leaves two spots: one in central midfield and one at outside midfielder.  Unfortunately, I see those two spots changing a dozen times in the next six months.

Striker (4): Jozy Altidore, Clint Dempsey, Aron Johnannson, and Eddie Johnson.
Starters: Jozy Altidore and Clint Dempsey
Analysis: There was never any question about Altidore's physical abilities but going into 2013 he still had not found a way to turn that promise into actual production scoring goals for the national team.  Given that Jozy Altidore has been in rare form scoring almost every time our for the national team, he deserves to be in the starting XL in Brazil.  If Klinsmann deploys Dempsey and Donovan in the midfielder, I could actually see Johnson getting a start up front next to Altidore.

Shifting gears from the futbol to football.  Make sure to check back on Monday for my thoughts on the Green Bay Packers make-or-break game at home against the Atlanta Falcons sans starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers for the sixth straight game.  Without Rodgers the Packers have gone 0-4-1 so even though the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the NFL this season.  Let's not forget that they went to the NFC Championship Game last season so a win is far from guaranteed for the Packers.  If the Packers win, their slim playoff hopes stay alive.  If the Packers lose, all the coverage of them in this space will shift towards building for 2014.
Howard
F. Johnson (Parkhurst, 46)
Goodson
Gonzalez
Beasley
Jones
Beckerman
Bedoya (Zusi, 84)
Dempsey (c)
Donovan-1
E. Johnson (Diskerud, 76) - See more at: http://www.ussoccer.com/teams/us-men/lineups/2013-lineups.aspx#sthash.OaFxfIMe.dpuf
Howard
F. Johnson (Parkhurst, 46)
Goodson
Gonzalez
Beasley
Jones
Beckerman
Bedoya (Zusi, 84)
Dempsey (c)
Donovan-1
E. Johnson (Diskerud, 76) - See more at: http://www.ussoccer.com/teams/us-men/lineups/2013-lineups.aspx#sthash.OaFxfIMe.d
Altidore, Jozy
Altidore, Jozy
Altidore, Jozy
Altidore, Jozy

Friday, December 6, 2013

2014 World Cup Draw for United States

The 2014 World Cup in Brazil starts on Thursday, June 12, 2014.  Earlier today FIFA choose the eight groups for the 32 participants with the top two teams in each group qualifying for the knock-out stages.  The first hour of the "selection show" was downright brutal to watch.  I know it is supposed to give the host country a chance to educate the world about them but having recently visited Brazil, I would say they completely missed the mark.

FIFA creates four pots and then picks the eight groups out of those four pots.  It is confusing so here is a nice breakdown.  Unfortunately for the United States, FIFA placed all the CONCACAF teams in the same pot as the Asian teams, which makes that pot by far the weakest pot.

Going into the selections, I decided to develop some power rankings for each group.  Just to make these rankings crystal clear, the first team in each pot is the team I would least like the United States to be drawn against, so on and so forth.  It is sort of academic for Pot Three since the United States cannot be drawn with any of those teams but I thought it would be a nice way for me to rank the teams as they are currently constituted.  I put each country's current FIFA ranking in parenthesis, which were updated on November 28, 2013.  Here are the four pots with my ranking (best to worst) within each pot:

Pot One: Spain (1), Brazil (10), Argentina (3), Germany (2), Uruguay (6), Belgium (11), Colombia (4), and Switzerland (8)

Pot Two: Ivory Coast (17), Chile (15), Ghana (24), Algeria (26), Ecuador (23), Nigeria (36), and Cameroon (51)

Pot Three: United States (14), Mexico (20), Costa Rica (31), Honduras (41), South Korea (54), Japan (48), Iran (45), and Australia (59) 

Pot Four: Netherlands (9), Portugal (5), Italy (7), Croatia (16), France (19), Greece (12), England (13), Russia (22), and Bosnia-Herzegovina (21)

The highest FIFA ranked country that did not qualify for the 2014 World Cup was the Ukraine, which are currently ranked 18th.  I understand that only so many teams can qualify from certain continents but it makes no sense to me that Ukraine lost a home-and-home playoff to France for a spot in the World Cup but are still somehow ranked ahead of France in the FIFA rankings.

Here is explanation of the rankings.  I get that the FIFA rankings account for more things that just World Cup qualification but the lunacy of France being ranked behind the Ukraine despite knocking them off to get into the 2014 World Cup is just one of the million problems I have with the FIFA rankings.  Since FIFA could care less about cracking down on match fixing or the fact that they awarded the next two World Cups to corrupt countries, they could at least carve out an exception to their rules for their rankings that account for oddities like the one just highlighted.

Sorry for the FIFA rankings detour, back to the draw for World Cup 2014.  Those that counted the teams in each of the pots above will notice that only seven teams are in Pot Two and nine teams are in Pot Four.  FIFA had to randomly draw one of those teams into Pot Two.  There are some restrictions for how the team that is moved to Pot Two can be drawn based on how teams are drawn from Pot One.  Basically FIFA did not want to see two European teams drawn into one group out of Pot One and Pot Two because that would mean a third European team would be drawn into that group from Pot Four.  As it turns out Italy, which was the team that I ranked third in Pot Four, got drawn into Pot Two.

Going into the draw I thought the best possible draw for the United States was Switzerland, Cameroon, and Bosnia-Herzegovina while the worst draw was Argentina, Portugal, and Netherlands.  Again groups matter because only the top two teams from each group qualify for the knock-out stage.  Here is the full list of the groups for the 2014 World Cup:

Group A: Brazil, Cameroon, Mexico, and Croatia.

Group B: Spain, Chile, Australia, and Netherlands.

Group C: Colombia, Ivory Coast, Japan, and Greece.

Group D: Uruguay, Italy, Costa Rica, and England.

Group E: Switzerland, Honduras, Ecuador, and France.

Group F: Argentina, Nigeria, Iran, and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Group G: Germany, Ghana, United States, and Portugal.

Group H: Belgium, Korean Republic, Algeria, and Russia.

As it turns out the United States got just as bad of a draw as my worst case scenario landing in Group G with Germany, Ghana, and Portugal.  It also means that United States manager Jurgen Klinsman will coach against his home country in the group stages.  Just to show how strong the members of Group G are, all four teams made it to the knockout round of the 2010 World Cup.  The only other group to even have three members make the knockout round of the 2010 World Cup was Spain, Chile, and Netherlands from Group B.

The lowest ranked team in Group G according to the FIFA rankings is Ghana at 24.  United States fans know that Ghana are no pushovers either because they knocked the United States out of the last two world World Cups (final group stage match in 2006 and in the Round of 16 in 2010).

As you can see, it would be no small feat for the United States to be one of the two qualifiers for the knockout stage out of Group G.  The first match of the 2014 World Cup for the United States is against Ghana.  Hopefully the United States will be able to avenge their last two World Cup defeats to Ghana with a win, which would mean they would most likely only need a win or tie against Portugal or Germany to reach the Round of 16.

We have over six months to speculate and let's not forget injuries play a big part in what groups actually end up being the toughest right now I would say Group G is the deepest group.  The United States were drawn into Group B or Group D then that could have been the toughest group in the 2014 World Cup.  I see Group E or H as the easiest.

Although this is a Cheesehead sports blog if you follow the United States Men's Soccer Team or the World Cup make sure to check back as the 2014 World Cup nears because I plan to write Building The 23 posts leading up to the World Cup and The 23 posts throughout the World Cup.

Building The 25 - Brewers trade Aoki to Royals for Smith

Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin violated one of the five general rules that I gave him for how to approach this off-season when he traded starting right fielder Norichika Aoki to the Kansas City Royals for left-handed pitcher Will Smith.  Let's table the fact that Aoki became a huge fan favorite in just two years in Milwaukee and evaluate the trade as objectively as possible.

Despite Aoki being 31 and Smith only being 24, they both only have two years of MLB experience because Aoki played professionally in Japan from 2004-11.  Over the last two years Aoki put up seasons of 3.5 (2012) and 3.0 (2013) wins above replacement (WAR). After starting 16 games and throwing 89.2 innings for the Royals in 2012, Smith worked almost exclusively out of the bullpen in 2013 logging just 33.1 innings. That means over the last two years Smith put up 0.0 WAR, which means Smith was nothing better than a borderline major league baseball player while Aoki added 6.5 wins over that same time frame.

According to Jonah Keri's Baseball Dictionary for Grantland.com, a win on the open market costs $6 million, which made Aoki a steal for the Brewers the last two years since he produced 6.5 wins but only cost them $7.25 million ($2.5 million posting fee and $4.75 million in salary and performance bonuses).  Yes, there is a chance that Aoki will regress in 2014 since he turns 32 before the start of the season but the Brewers only owed him a little less than $2 million.  I know that Aoki was a seasoned professional when he joined the Brewers in 2012 while Smith was a young, developing left-handed but two years later it does not look like Smith has improved very much.

Sure Aoki is set to become a free agent after 2014 while Smith is not able to become a free agent until 2020 but my guess is that the Brewers could have extended Aoki through 2015 or 2016 for an average of $2.5 million a year.  I am sure part of the reason the Brewers made the trade was that they wanted to give promising young outfielder Khris Davis a chance to start in 2014 but I am still not sure that justified trading Aoki for what amounts to a glorified lottery ticket.  There was going to be a market for Aoki all the way up to the trade deadline at the end of July so if Davis proved he was worthy of starting over Aoki in 2014, the Brewers could have moved Aoki at some point before the trade deadline for a player like Smith.  If Davis struggled, the Brewers could have kept Aoki at the trade deadline if they were in playoff contention.

Although I didn't like the Aoki for Smith deal because the Brewers traded a known commodity for what amounts to an enticing lottery ticket, I am not always against the Brewers making a trade for a lottery ticket.  Earlier this off-season Melvin traded right-handed reliever Burke Badenhop to the Boston Red Sox for left-handed minor leaguer Luis Ortega.  I didn't mind that deal since last season Badenhop was -0.3 wins above replacement while Ortega is a 20-year-older that had success in the lowest level of the minor leagues despite his slight build 5'10" and 155 lbs.  There are tons of Bradenhops (below average relief pitchers) and Ortegas (young, left-handed pitcher) so I would rather role the dice on Ortega at the expense of Badenhop because Ortega's potentially higher ceiling.

Back to the Aoki/Smith deal for my final thoughts.  Best case scenario Davis picks up in 2014 where he left off in 2013 and the Brewers bought low on a left-handed relief pitcher in Smith for 2014 that they can turn into a starter down the road.  Worst case scenario, Davis and Smith struggle while Aoki continues to be Aoki.  My best guess is that Davis is a slightly above average outfielder while Smith serves as a middle reliever in 2014, which is why I do not think Smith was enough for Melvin to get in return for Aoki.

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Building The 53 - McMillian out, Bell in

We knew that Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson added veteran running back Kahlil Bell to The 53 almost 24 hours ago thanks to Twitter.  At 5'11 and 216 lbs, Bell is a versatile running back that amassed 148 carries for 633 rushing yards and 22 receptions for 150 receiving yards over four seasons in the NFL mostly for the Chicago Bears.  For those that don't remember, Bell gashed the Packers for 159 total yards as a member of the Bears on Christmas Day 2011 thanks to 23 carries for 121 yards and four catches for 38 yards.  Bell previously served as a kickoff returner for the New York Jets, which is a plus since rookie cornerback Micah Hyde's success returning punts has not translated to kickoff returns. Since news of Bell's addition to The 53 broke after NFL business hours, the question turned to what player was going to make way for Bell?

Starting center Even Dietrich-Smith injured his knee on Thanksgiving against the Lions so with only four games left in the season there was a chance the Packers would put EDS on injured reserve.  Apparently EDS might be healthy enough to practice this week so that meant that the Packers were going to have to cut a healthy player to add Bell to The 53.  The strongest candidates to get cut from The 53 were the following pick-six (in alphabetical order):
- Victor Aiyewa (LB): the most recent addition to The 53 made his roster spot tenuous.
- Chris Harper (WR): a healthy scratch the last five games.
- Jeron McMillian (S): can't get on the field lately despite serious needs at safety.
- Marshall Newhouse (OT): arguably the worst offensive player currently on The 53.
- Nate Palmer (LB): healthy scratch the last two weeks.
- Jake Stoneburner (TE): rookie undrafted free agent that has seen very little of the field on offense or special teams despite all the injuries the Packers suffered at tight end this season.

As it turns out, McMillian made way for Bell.  When Thompson used a 4th round draft pick to draft McMillian, some scouts thought McMillian would have a hard time adjusting to the NFL since he played college football at Maine against second-tier NCAA players. After watching McMillian as a rookie, I actually thought he could be Atari Bigby 2.0 given how physical he played as a rookie.

Thanks to a productive rookie campaign, McMillian entered training camp this season as the starter opposite Morgan Burnett at safety but struggled throughout training camp.  Despite McMillian's struggles, he actually started the first two games this season due mostly to lack of better options since Burnett was injured.  After playing 184 snaps on defense in the first five games this season, McMillian played just seven defensive snaps in the last seven games.  Thus the longer McMillian was on The 53 during his sophomore season, the less he saw the field.  Even worse, McMillian was only a part-time player on special teams so that was probably the biggest indicator that McMillian's roster spot was tenuous. Ultimately McMillian played 28 games for the Packers including the aforementioned two starts by default.  As it turns out I was wrong about McMillian's upside because he is more of a homeless man's Bigby than Bigby 2.0.

With the change to The 53 out of the way, let's turn to the most notable thing we learned from Packer head coach Mike McCarthy's press conference earlier today.  McCarthy revealed that quarterback Aaron Rodgers is still not cleared to play but did not rule him out for Sunday when the Packers host the underwhelming Atlanta Falcons.  Hopefully the Packers will have Rodgers under center against the Falcons because without his services they've gone 0-4-1 since Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone against the Bears.  Given that the Packers trail the Detroit Lions by 1.5 games for first place in the NFC North with four games to play, the Packers face a do or die stretch to finish the season.