2024 Green Bay Packers Offseason Plan

The Green Bay Packers fell to the San Francisco 49ers yet again in the playoffs over the weekend.  I truly thought the Packers were going to win until Packers rookie kicker Anders Carlson missed a 41 field goal with roughly six minutes left in the game that would have put the Packers up a touchdown.  If you are going to read this post then you know what happened so let's move onto an off-season plan to help the young, feisty Packers be even better in 2024.  I am going to use the categories that ESPN came up with for their offseason guide for each team but gave my own thoughts for Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst.

Biggest offseason priority: The easy answer to say is to fix their special teams woes given that Carlson missed 13 kicks (field goals and extra points) this season including playoffs.  During the Packers/49ers game, Fox sideline reporter Tom Rinaldi relayed a truly horrible nugget that Packers head coach Matt LaFleur just pray every time that Carlson trots onto the field to attempt a kick, which is about as critical as I've ever heard LaFleur be of one of his players and likely said in jest since LaFleur is such a players first coach.  There is some debate about whether the kicking issues are on the long snapper, the kicker or whether both should shoulder some of the blame.  Either way, Carlson is likely the place kicker for the Packers in 2024 even though he shouldn't be based on how he kicked in 2023.  With that special teams preamble out of the way, I think the biggest offseason thing to figure out is whether the Packers have their offensive tackles of the future on the roster in Rasheed Walker (played left tackle this season) and Zach Tom (played right tackle this season) or whether they need to use a high draft pick on an offensive tackle.  There is no way the Packers rely on left tackle David Bakhtiari given his injury history.  Bakhtiari's contract means he is likely on The 53 in 2024 unless Gutekunst can get the New York Jets to pony up for Bakhtiari.  While it seems outlandish, almost all the players Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (still feels odd to type that) "asked" the Jets to sign won't be on their roster next year so Bakhtiari could be the literal and figurative security blanket for Rodgers given how shaky the Jets offensive line is right now.  When Tom went out with a concussion against the 49ers, the offensive line didn't look as stout with Yosh Nijman at right tackle.  Add in that Nijman is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent and the Packers might as well let him go in free agency and take the compensatory pick that they get in the 2025 NFL Draft that will be held in Green Bay.  The Packers are set at left guard with Elgton Jenkins, besides that, every position is far from set so I could honestly see Tom playing left tackle, center, right guard or right tackle for the Packers in 2024.  The Packers look to have a quality option at right guard or possibly even right tackle in Sean Rhyan already on the roster so I'd say the Packers do one of two things knowing that they will draft a few offensive lineman at some point in the 2024 NFL Draft.  One, keep Walker at left tackle and Tom at right tackle so only use late round draft picks on developmental offensive tackles.  Two, if there is a potential starting tackle available at the end of the first round then draft that player, move Tom to center in place of Josh Myers and sort out where to slot that rookie in along the offensive line.

Under-the-radar offseason priority: Running back with secondary nipping at running back's heels.  Truth be told, secondary might be an even bigger priority than offensive tackle or running back given how much turnover I expect there to be but let's put a pin in that for right now.  The Packers have to bring running back Aaron Jones back because Jones is a truly an elite running back when healthy.  The when healthy part is the biggest issue with Jones and that is even before talking about his $17.5 million cap hit in the last year of his contract that he carries if he is on The 53 for the 2024 season.  No matter what, Jones will carry a Larry Sanders-esque (shout out to former Milwaukee Buck and the NBA for allowing teams to stretch their bad financial decisions out over a number of years) hit on the Packers salary cap through the 2027 season ($6.6 million in 2025, $4.1 million in 2026, and $1.7 million in 2027) even though 2024 is technically the last year of his contract because of some accounting tricks that the Packers used to resign Jones after the 2020 NFL season.  After the stretch run that Jones put up, there is no reason that he should take a pay cut.  My heart says that I wish Jones would take a pay cut but my head says don't do it since I could see another team talking themselves into paying Jones a bunch of money for a two or three year contract given that Jones is still only 29 years old.  I know 30 years old seems to be the line of demarcation in the NFL but Jones has less tread on his tires than a workhouse 30 year old running back.  Oddly this season Jones being injured through most of the middle of the season allowed him to be healthy for the stretch run for the first time in a while and he strung together five games in a row rushing for at least 100 yards each game to close the season.  Leaving aside the raw production, the Packers offense is so much more in sync with Jones in the lineup.  Backup running back A.J. Dillion is set to be a free agent, while Dillion seems like a nice person, the Packers should let Dillon focus on being the mayor of Door Country given his lack of explosiveness and how injured he was to end the season.  The Packers have Emanuel Wilson (exclusive rights free agent so can bring him back for 2024 on the cheap) and Patrick Taylor (unrestricted free agent that they likely could being back on the cheap) to round out the running back room for 2023.  All to say, I'd approach Jones about taking a pay cut knowing that it is highly unlikely that he will so look for the Packers to use a day two draft pick (either second or third round) on their running back of the future in the upcoming NFL Draft.

Latest on whether they will re-sign safety Darnell Savage: There is no doubt that Savage has not lived up to what the Packers expected he would be when they took him with the 21st pick in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft.  When talking about under-the-radar offseason priorities, I said the secondary as opposed to just safety because three of the other four safeties on the roster (Jonathan Owens, Rudy Ford, and Zayne Anderson) are set to be free agents and their cornerback position is equally unsettled as well.  Savage is under contract with the Packers for $5.5 million for 2024 and it is fully guaranteed so I assume that means Savage will be on the roster in 2024, the bummer is that Savage has a longtail on the Packers salary cap counting $1.4 million each year from 2025 through 2028 even if he is not on The 53.  I assume that the Packers bring back a couple of the other safeties on one year deals with Anderson the most likely since he is a restricted free agent and Owens also likely because he might take another veteran minimum deal to play in Green Bay if the Packers allow him to go to Paris to root on his better half, gymnast Simone Biles at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris.  No matter what, none of those five safeties seem like foundational franchise pieces so the Packers will have to continue to look to replace the ghost of Nick Collins so look for Gutekunst to use a day one or day two pick on that position as well as a day three flyer on a height/weight/speed prospect too.  Flipping to cornerback, assuming that cornerback Jaire Alexander comes back (he is under contract but clearly has been a malcontent, which lead to him getting suspended for a must win game against the Minnesota Vikings), the Packers still might need to fill at least one starting cornerback position given that their slot corner Keisean Nixon and their 4th cornerback on the depth chart Corey Ballentine are both scheduled to be unrestricted free agents.  On the (mostly) positive side of the coin, the Packers have what looks like another Alexander in the making (I mean that both positively and negatively) in rookie Carrington Valentine.  On the negative side of the coin, the Packers can't expect anything from oft injured Eric Stokes, a guy the Packers drafted with the 29th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.  That's all to say, for what feels like the 100th draft in a row, the Packers are likely using their first round draft pick on a defensive player and likely either a cornerback or a safety.

Draft outlook: The Packers hold five draft picks in the top 100 draft picks in the upcoming draft: the 25th (their own first round pick), 41st (the Jets second round draft pick from the Aaron Rodgers trade), 58th (their own second round draft pick), 88th (their own third round draft pick), and 91st (the Bills third round draft pick from the Rasul Douglas trade).  It is borderline silly to look at the mock drafts right now since we don't have any true measurables on prospects.  I think the smarter exercise is to think about positions that the Packers need to strengthen.  The Detroit Lions were panned for how they handled the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft given that they took Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th pick and Iowa inside linebacker Jack Campbell with the 18th pick because running back and inside linebacker are not considered premium positions worthy of using a couple high draft picks on but both of those players have been instrumental in helping the Lions win the NFC North and get to the NFC Championship Game.  Gutekunst is a best player available guy but given that the Packers have glaring needs in the secondary, look for the Packers to spend early draft capital at that position and sprinkle in a running back, an offensive lineman, a defensive lineman and a pass rusher.  I know I listed almost every position but honestly for the first time in a long time the Packers look set at wide receiver and tight end, which not only sets up Love and the franchise well but must drive Rodgers crazy.

Big prediction for the offseason: Gutekunst will actually use the draft capital they amassed via the Rodgers and Douglas trades to move up in the draft.  How and what they do is truly anyone's guess but I oddly think the Packers impressive late season run puts even more urgency on Gutekunst to make this team even more in a win now mode than before given that there are a number of younger players on the offensive side of the ball on rookie contracts that are going to get mega paid in the coming years.

For those that stuck around this long, thank you.  I am running back my S.M.A.R.T. goals for 2024 with some pretty significant modifications so check back here on February 1st for more details on that.

Building The 53 - Love and Rodgers

As I traded text messages with my 'Sconi buddies about the post-season essentially ending with a whimper for the Milwaukee Bucks as we endured an absolutely painful and borderline embarrassing 4th quarter where the Bucks scored just 13 points en route to going down 3-0 to the Miami Heat in their second round bubble playoff match-up, my buddy UP suggested that I start posting in this space again and that he might even occasionally drop a guest post so here I am again posting about 'Sconi sports.  Still to be determined how much I end up posting and what exactly I post about but does feel good to start blogging again so gonna try to ride the lightning as long as I can.

Given that the 2020 NFL regular season is (somehow) just around the corner, we can mop up what the Bucks need to do very simply, keep The Greek Freak in Milwaukee but do not follow the model that the Cleveland Cavaliers used to appease LeBron James, instead build an actual NBA roster around their superstar.  There in no doubt in my mind that the Bucks should have kept Malcolm Brogdon and paid the luxury tax instead of doing a sign-and-trade with the Indiana Pacers that ended up netting the Bucks the 24th pick in the 2020 NBA Draft but we can't undo that now and there will be plenty of time to deal with how to fix the Bucks in the coming weeks.

As a result, it seems like posting something about the Green Bay Packers is the way go so I will leave breaking down The 53 (tons of surprising cuts to be sure) and the practice squad (expanded this year to help deal with the people on The 53 that will inevitable test positive for COVID-19) to others, instead let's go back to the 1st round of the 2020 NFL Draft to see how it set the stage for the next five years for the franchise.  Like millions of other sports starved people, a bunch of buddies and I "watched the draft together" on Zoom.  When the Packers traded up in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, it was clear that I was a few seconds ahead of everyone else on the Zoom hangout so I tried to hide my reaction as the group caught up to me.  As we all know by now, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst traded the 30th and the 136th picks in the 2020 NFL Draft to move up four spots to the 26th pick to draft Utah State quarterback Jordan Love.  Less than six months later, none of us really know how Love is going to turn out as a professional.  From a process standpoint, it didn't make a ton of sense then given that the Packers signed Rodgers to a four-year, $134 million contract ($57.5 million signing bonus and $98.7 guaranteed) in August of 2018 that is scheduled to run through the 2023 NFL season.  The Packers would take on ~$31.5 million in dead cap space if they moved on from Rodgers after this season (could put ~$14.3 on their 2021 cap and ~$17.2 million on their 2022 cap if they designated it as a post-June 1st move) and ~$17.2 million in dead cap space if they moved on from Rodgers after next season (could put ~$14.4 million on their 2022 cap and ~$2.8 million on their 20212 cap if they designated it as a post-June 1st move).

Honestly if the Packers made that same decision in 2021 or 2022, I couldn't blame them but just given the cap situation with Rodgers alone, I question the move even though I know quarterback is such an important position and understand taking the best player on the board usually works out given that is how Rodgers made it to Green Bay.  Add in that there were inside linebackers (Jordyn Brooks from Texas Tech or Patrick Queen from LSU), an offensive tackle (Isaiah Wilson from Georgia) and wide receivers (Tee Higgins from Clemson or Michael Pittman Jr. from USC) that went just a few picks after the Packers traded up to take Love, I would much rather the Packers draft one of those players instead of trading up to draft Love.  Trust me, I can't with a straight face say that I know which one of the guys that went just a few picks after Love will be better than him long term, I just know any of them give the Packers a better chance to succeed in 2020 than Love.  That doesn't even factor in that the Packers could have scooped another low cost player at the end of the 4th round with the other pick they traded to move up in the first round to draft Love.  I know the NFL Draft is essentially an educated dart throwing contest given that there are tons of players that went late in the draft or undrafted that will likely go on to have a better NFL careers then some of the players taken in the first round (my friends would argue that middling is generous).  Much like I am a high volume joke teller with a middling success rate, the NFL Draft is the same thing, having more picks just gives you more chances to strike lightning in a bottle.

I've read the various analyses of Rodgers drop in play since as early as 2015 according to Ben Baldwin of The Athletic (SOURCE) or a couple years later due to his broken collarbone in 2017 or his knee injury in 2018 or somewhere in between because the offense got stale in recent years under former Packers head coach Mike McCarthy.  Let me just put my cards on the table, I am an unabashed Rodgers apologist.  Heck, my son's name is Aaron so you can take all of this with a grain of salt but there is no doubt that the Packers are worse as a team in 2020 with Love on the roster instead of an inside linebackers, offensive tackle or wide receiver.  I get it, the Packers don't draft players for just this season but watching quarterbacks recently drafted in the first round like Josh Rosen get cut in recent days, shows you that picking quarterbacks even in the first round is essentially a crap-shoot too.

I turn 40 next summer (yikes) so for almost my entire life as a Packer fan, they have had remarkable stability at the quarterback position thanks to Brett Favre and Rodgers.  I obviously hope the Packer somehow pulled off a three-peat at quarterback with Love but I just can't get over that the Packers essentially painted themselves into a corner.  Part of the benefit of rookie contracts are that they are "cheap" in NFL terms so if you can get an starting NFL quarterback on a rookie contract (think Russell Wilson when he first played for the Seattle Seahawks as the ultimate example) then you have a ton of money that would normally be allocated to the quarterback to spend on other positions (think Legion of Boom for the Seattle Seahawks) but the Packers will likely not get the benefit of that because absent a couple injuries, Love is currently 3rd on the quarterback depth chart behind Rodgers and Tim Boyle.  That means that Love will most likely not play until 2022 at the earliest so the Packers would likely only get two years of Love on a rookie contract while they are dealing with the salary cap issues associated with showing Rodgers the door so they don't even get the cheap rookie contract bump to help them allocate resources elsewhere on The 53.

The 2020 NFL Draft mirrored life with the kids of NFL coaches and general managers jumping around in the background as their parents tried to work.  That day, in their heart of hearts, coaches and general managers didn't know for sure but had to know it was very likely that they wouldn't get anywhere close to a "traditional off-season" so expecting a rookie quarterback to come in and contribute almost anything in 2020 was going to be a big ask, which means they had to know Love was likely nothing more than a 3rd string quarterback for the 2020 season.  By that same logic, you could argue that a middle linebackers, offensive tackle or wide receiver would similarly have trouble contributing in 2020 but there is a big difference between quarterback and any other position in football.

Instead of adding a wide receiver to The 53 in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Packers continued to remake their offense by adding a bruising running back in A.J. Dillon and tight end in Josiah Deguara.  There is no doubt that the Packers are trying to change the focal point of their offense under head coach Matt LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett into being a run first attack in the mold of the San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans.  The glass half full view of that is that metamorphosis could actually allow the Packers and Rodgers to thrive by not having to carry the entire offense with his arm.  The glass half empty view is that Rodgers will become frustrated and petulant, which will lead to him checking out of run plays to pass plays to piss off coaches and management.  Like everything, it will likely be somewhere in between, especially given the odd circumstance every walk of life has been dealt by COVID-19 in 2020, the question is whether we are closer to the glass half full or glass half empty metamorphosis.  Only time will tell but given the unrest on the right side of the offensive line (long-time right tackle Bryan Bulaga left via free agency and they are currently dealing with some injuries to his replacement) and the fact that the Packers outperformed their expected win total for 2019 but failed to add useful pieces on offense, I sadly tend to think it will be more of a glass half empty metamorphosis.  I can't end this post post on a completely negative note so while the Packers lack superstar depth, they do have superstars at quarterback (Rodgers), wide receiver (Davante Adams) and running back (Aaron Jones) so the hope is that they can help build on 2019 to be even better in 2020.

There is an outside chance that the Packers simultaneously added their quarterback of the future in Love while lighting a fire under Rodgers arse to bookend his career in Green Bay with a 2nd Super Bowl.  It is much more than likely that Love never plays a meaningful snap for the Packers and his presence leads Rodgers to leave Green Bay under bad terms but without a long term answer at quarterback.  More likely than not, Love takes over for Rogers in 2022 and the Packers get pennies on the dollar for Rodgers to go along with a messed up cap situation.  No matter what, management for the Packers took the hard road by drafting Love so I hope that I am wrong and the Packers pull off the three-peat.  Either way, fingers crossed that we can as safely as possible have NFL football back in our lives for the rest of 2020.