For some reason I have a feeling that Ted Thompson is trading back in the first round which will NOT sit well with Packer fans that watched the first three hours of the draft only to have to wait another day.
Ted Thompson could also trade up like last year when he nabbed Clay Matthews at the end of the first round but that seems highly unlikely, especially since Thompson doesn't have an extra 3rd round pick at his disposal (from the Jets in exchange for B. Favre). Quick tangent, that still boggles my mind that Brett Favre only netted the Packers a 3rd round pick, how is that possible? That trade illustrates how overvalued draft picks are in the NFL.
Back to the 2010 NFL Draft, assuming Thompson keeps the pick the Packers are in a great position to take the best player available because they do not have any glaring needs. Even though I am advocating for Thompson to take the best player available in the first round, the Packers definitely do NOT need a quarterback, fullback, tight end, or middle linebacker that early.
Besides the aforementioned positions, Thompson should take the best player available. If the Thompson stays put at 23, some household names will be long gone (Bradford, Suh, Spiller, etc) but there are always a few sleepers that go earlier than expected. Do I smell a Tebow sighting before 23? Hopefully not because the Vikings have the 30th pick in the draft.
In any case, it is reasonable to think the Packers can get a stud that can contribute next year at 23. Here are my ranking, meaning if all the guys were available I would want Thompson to select the first guy on the list and so on:
- Taylor Mays (Safety, USC): you can't teach size and strength. There is a chance Mays goes #8 to the Raiders because he is an absolute physical freak of nature at 6'3" with a 4.31 40-yard dash. Either way I see him as a hybrid linebackers/safety in Dom Capers' psycho package which is a huge upgrade over Chillar trying to play that hybrid position.
- Jerry Hughes (OLB, TCU): the guys at Football Outsiders debuted a new stat a couple of days ago called SackSEER which tries to predict how many sacks a defensive end/outside linebacker will have in their first 5 years in the NFL. The stat takes into account four factors: vertical leap, short shuttle time, sacks per game in college, and games missed in college. The stat looks very robust and Mr. Jerry Hughes is #1 on their list of 2010 draft entries ahead of much more heralded players like Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech), Everson Griffen (USC), Brandon Graham (University of Michigan), and Sergio Kindle (University of Texas).
- Charles Brown (T, USC): there are always a few guys that shoot up draft boards the week of the draft and Charles Brown is that guy this year. In all likelihood Brown will not be there at 23 but I included him for two reasons. First, because I think Brown is the Michael Oher of the 2010 NFL Draft minus Sandra Bullock as his movie step-mom. Second, to show how much I like Mays and Hughes.
- Sergio Kindle (OLB, Texas): even though he has an obscenely low SackSEER projection, Kindle would be a good value at 23. I have a few counters to drafting Kindle though. One, why not give Brad Jones a year or two to develop? Two, why not move Chillar/Poppinga opposite Matthews?
- Devin McCourty (CB, Rutgers): make Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Packer beat writer and Rutgers alum Greg A. Bedard happy and allow him to cover a Scarlet Knight that looks like a promising young cornerback.
- Jared Odrick (DE, Penn State): really hope he gets picked before 23. Would be a "good value" according to the talking heads at 23 but just not sold on him for no good reason really.
- Javhid Best (RB, Cal): has some concussion issues which is never a good thing, especially if you are a rookie running back. With that said, I am all for the Packers lighting a fire under Ryan Grant while addressing their return needs all at once.
Check back throughout draft weekend, I will react to Thompson's moves as much as possible.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
1st Round Mock Draft (April 21, 2010)
With the new format and teams desperate to improve, I expect there to be a number of trades in the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft. For simplicity sake, I filled out my mock draft making the HUGE assumption that there will be no trades, here is my first EVER mock draft:
#1) Rams - Sam Bradford
#2) Lions - Ndamukong Suh
#3) Bucs - Gerald McCoy
#4) Redskins - Russell Okung
#5) Chiefs - Eric Berry
#6) Seahawks - Trent Williams
#7) Browns - Joe Haden
#8) Raiders - Derrick Morgan
#9) Bills - Bryan Bulaga
#10) Jags - Earl Thomas
#11) Giants - Rolando McClain
#12) Miami - Dan Williams
#13) 49ers - Jimmy Clausen
#14) Seahawks - C.J. Spiller
#15) Broncos - Brandon Graham
#16) Titans - Jason Pierre-Paul
#17) 49ers - Mike Iupati
#18) Steelers - Maurkice Pouncey
#19) Falcons - Sean Weatherspoon
#20) Texans - Kyle Wilson
#21) Bengals - Jermaine Gresham
#22) Patriots - Dez Bryant
#23) Packers - Taylor Mays
#24) Eagles - Sergio Kindle
#25) Ravens - Jared Odrick
#26) Cards - Jerry Hughes
#27) Cowboys - Charles Brown
#28) Chargers - Jahvid Best
#29) Jets - Nate Allen
#30) Vikings - Tim Tebow (hopefully)
#31) Colts - Rodger Safford
#32) Saints - Devin McCourty
#1) Rams - Sam Bradford
#2) Lions - Ndamukong Suh
#3) Bucs - Gerald McCoy
#4) Redskins - Russell Okung
#5) Chiefs - Eric Berry
#6) Seahawks - Trent Williams
#7) Browns - Joe Haden
#8) Raiders - Derrick Morgan
#9) Bills - Bryan Bulaga
#10) Jags - Earl Thomas
#11) Giants - Rolando McClain
#12) Miami - Dan Williams
#13) 49ers - Jimmy Clausen
#14) Seahawks - C.J. Spiller
#15) Broncos - Brandon Graham
#16) Titans - Jason Pierre-Paul
#17) 49ers - Mike Iupati
#18) Steelers - Maurkice Pouncey
#19) Falcons - Sean Weatherspoon
#20) Texans - Kyle Wilson
#21) Bengals - Jermaine Gresham
#22) Patriots - Dez Bryant
#23) Packers - Taylor Mays
#24) Eagles - Sergio Kindle
#25) Ravens - Jared Odrick
#26) Cards - Jerry Hughes
#27) Cowboys - Charles Brown
#28) Chargers - Jahvid Best
#29) Jets - Nate Allen
#30) Vikings - Tim Tebow (hopefully)
#31) Colts - Rodger Safford
#32) Saints - Devin McCourty
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Green Bay Packers Roster heading into the 2010 NFL Draft
According to most draft experts, despite being one of the deepest drafts in recent history the top half of the draft is rather thin at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, offensive guard, center, and inside linebacker. On the other hand, the top half of the draft is very deep at offensive tackle, defensive lineman (both tackle and end), rush outside linebacker, cornerback, and safety. Luckily the Green Bay Packers' needs and the top end talent in the 2010 NFL Draft match-up.
Here is a look at the Green Bay Packers roster heading into the 2010 NFL Draft:
Quarterback (2): Aaron Rodgers and Matt Flynn. The Packers have no pressing needs at quarterback. If there is another 7th round gem like Matt Flynn sitting there at the end of the draft, snap him up. Otherwise, Ted Thompson has shown that he is content to start the season with two quarterbacks.
Running Back (3): Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson, and Kregg Lumpkin. If there is a game changing return guy available (i.e. C.J. Spiller in the 1st round or Ben Tate in the 2nd round), take him. Either Spiller or Tate would be a perfect home run hitter to pair with Ryan Grant.
Fullback (3): Korey Hall, Quinn Johnson, and John Kuhn. Ted Thompson better not draft a guy here. The Packer had to be one of the only teams in the NFL to carry more fullbacks than quarterbacks on their 53-man roster for the entire 2009 season.
Wide Receiver (6): Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Brett Swain, and Patrick Williams. Despite Donald Driver getting up there in age, the Packers are all set at wide receiver for the foreseeable future. I completely support the Packers drafting a speedy kick returner that happens to play wide receiver late on day 3.
Tight End (3): Jermichael Finley, Spencer Havner, and Donald Lee. The Packers are all set with three NFL caliber tight ends on the roster. Havner is facing some legal trouble from an alleged DUI and Donald Lee is a nothing more than a blocking tight with suspect hands BUT with emerging NFL stud Jermichael Finley the Packers do not need to draft a tight end unless a game changer falls to them in the draft.
Offensive Tackle (5): Chad Clifton, Mark Tauscher, T.J. Lang, Allen Barbre, and Breno Giacomini. Despite resigning Clifton and Tauscher, Ted Thompson needs to get the offensive tackle of the future in the 2010 NFL Draft. If Bryan Bulaga or Charles Brown are still on the board at 23, the Packers should draft one them and let him learn behind Clifton for a year. That would allow the Packers to put Lang behind Tauscher and the Packers should be set at offensive tackle for the next decade. Absent injury, Barbre and Giacomini will be hard pressed to make the 53-man roster for 2010.
Offensive Guard (3): Josh Sitton, Daryn Colledge, and Jason Spitz. The good news is that Josh Sitton looks like the second coming of Marco Rivera. The bad news is after that the Packers have huge question marks at guard. Colledge has moved around the line throughout his career. Even when he has concentrated at left guard, he has struggled. Spitz shows tons of promise but can't stay healthy. A late developmental guard might help spark competition and give the Packers a little more depth at guard.
Center (2): Scott Wells and Evan Dietrich-Smith. Wells keeps on keeping on. If the Packers think Spitz is healthy enough, there is no need to draft a center. Either way, Dietrich-Smith's days might be numbered in Green Bay.
Defensive End (5): Cullen Jenkins, Johnny Jolly, Justin Harrell, Jarius Wynn, and Ronald Talley. With Jenkins and Jolly only locked up for 2010, it might be time to look at a traditional 3-4 end in the upcoming draft as insurance. As long as Jolly's legal troubles allow him to play in 2010 it looks like Harrell, Wynn, and Talley will fight with whomever the Packers draft for the final two defensive end roster spots in 2010.
Defensive Tackle (3): Ryan Pickett, B.J. Raji, and Anthony Toribio. There is no real reason to draft a player here with Pickett and Raji on the roster, especially if the carcus of Justin Harrell can contribute anything at defensive end or defensive tackle in 2010.
Outside Linebacker (5): Clay Matthews, Brad Jones, Brady Poppinga, Cyril Obiozor, and Robert Francois. If Brandon Graham or Jerry Hughes (Sergio Kindle to a less extent) are still available at 23, take him and thank your lucky stars. Adding either Graham, Hughes, or Kindle would give the Packers two outstanding outside linebackers for the next decade. The only players that are guaranteed a roster spot are Matthews and Jones. After that, the Packers will hold an open competition for outside linebacker roster spots.
Middle Linebacker (4): Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk, Brandon Chillar, and Desmond Bishop. At middle linebacker, the Packers have one stud (Nick Barnett), two above average (Hawk and Chillar) and one high motor guy (Bishop)...suffice to say I don't think the Packers need to draft a middle linebackers.
Cornerback (9): Charles Woodson, Al Harris, Tramon Williams, Brandon Underwood, Pat Lee, Will Blackmon, Josh Bell, D.J. Clark, and Trevor Ford. If Ted Thompson is right and all the cornerbacks come back healthy, there is no reason to draft a cornerback. Unfortunately, there is a small chance that all the cornerbacks come back healthy so if the right cornerback is available, take him and be happy. The only cornerbacks assured a roster spot in 2010 are Charles Woodson, Al Harris, and Tramon Williams. After that, it will be a dog fight for Brandon Underwood, Pat Lee, Will Blackmon, Josh Bell, D.J. Clark, and Trevor Ford.
Safety (4): Nick Collins, Atari Bigby, Derrick Martin, and Khalil Jones. Bigby continues to be a head scratcher. When healthy, Bigby looks like a borderline pro bowler but we only get to see small glimpses of that because Bigby is rarely healthy. The Packers should add a safety on day two of the draft to compete with Bigby.
Special Teams (4): Chris Bryan, Mason Crosby, Brett Goode, and Tim Masthay. If there is a running back, wide receiver, or cornerback with return capabilities I completely support the Packers reaching for a guy. Besides that, the draft looks thin at punter so it looks like another season of crap punting is in our future.
The Green Bay Packers have eight selections in the 2010 NFL draft, here are rough guesses at positions Ted Thompson should look at depending on how the draft shakes out:
#23 (first round): offensive tackle or outside linebacker
#56 (second round): offensive tackle, defensive end or outside linebacker
#86 (third round): defensive back (cornerback or safety)
#122 (fourth round): outside linebacker or defensive back (cornerback or safety)
#154 (fifth round): offensive line or defensive back
#169 (compensatory selection): offensive line or defensive back
#193 (sixth round): best athlete available with return capabilities
#230 (seventh round): best athlete available with return capabilities
Here is a look at the Green Bay Packers roster heading into the 2010 NFL Draft:
Quarterback (2): Aaron Rodgers and Matt Flynn. The Packers have no pressing needs at quarterback. If there is another 7th round gem like Matt Flynn sitting there at the end of the draft, snap him up. Otherwise, Ted Thompson has shown that he is content to start the season with two quarterbacks.
Running Back (3): Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson, and Kregg Lumpkin. If there is a game changing return guy available (i.e. C.J. Spiller in the 1st round or Ben Tate in the 2nd round), take him. Either Spiller or Tate would be a perfect home run hitter to pair with Ryan Grant.
Fullback (3): Korey Hall, Quinn Johnson, and John Kuhn. Ted Thompson better not draft a guy here. The Packer had to be one of the only teams in the NFL to carry more fullbacks than quarterbacks on their 53-man roster for the entire 2009 season.
Wide Receiver (6): Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Brett Swain, and Patrick Williams. Despite Donald Driver getting up there in age, the Packers are all set at wide receiver for the foreseeable future. I completely support the Packers drafting a speedy kick returner that happens to play wide receiver late on day 3.
Tight End (3): Jermichael Finley, Spencer Havner, and Donald Lee. The Packers are all set with three NFL caliber tight ends on the roster. Havner is facing some legal trouble from an alleged DUI and Donald Lee is a nothing more than a blocking tight with suspect hands BUT with emerging NFL stud Jermichael Finley the Packers do not need to draft a tight end unless a game changer falls to them in the draft.
Offensive Tackle (5): Chad Clifton, Mark Tauscher, T.J. Lang, Allen Barbre, and Breno Giacomini. Despite resigning Clifton and Tauscher, Ted Thompson needs to get the offensive tackle of the future in the 2010 NFL Draft. If Bryan Bulaga or Charles Brown are still on the board at 23, the Packers should draft one them and let him learn behind Clifton for a year. That would allow the Packers to put Lang behind Tauscher and the Packers should be set at offensive tackle for the next decade. Absent injury, Barbre and Giacomini will be hard pressed to make the 53-man roster for 2010.
Offensive Guard (3): Josh Sitton, Daryn Colledge, and Jason Spitz. The good news is that Josh Sitton looks like the second coming of Marco Rivera. The bad news is after that the Packers have huge question marks at guard. Colledge has moved around the line throughout his career. Even when he has concentrated at left guard, he has struggled. Spitz shows tons of promise but can't stay healthy. A late developmental guard might help spark competition and give the Packers a little more depth at guard.
Center (2): Scott Wells and Evan Dietrich-Smith. Wells keeps on keeping on. If the Packers think Spitz is healthy enough, there is no need to draft a center. Either way, Dietrich-Smith's days might be numbered in Green Bay.
Defensive End (5): Cullen Jenkins, Johnny Jolly, Justin Harrell, Jarius Wynn, and Ronald Talley. With Jenkins and Jolly only locked up for 2010, it might be time to look at a traditional 3-4 end in the upcoming draft as insurance. As long as Jolly's legal troubles allow him to play in 2010 it looks like Harrell, Wynn, and Talley will fight with whomever the Packers draft for the final two defensive end roster spots in 2010.
Defensive Tackle (3): Ryan Pickett, B.J. Raji, and Anthony Toribio. There is no real reason to draft a player here with Pickett and Raji on the roster, especially if the carcus of Justin Harrell can contribute anything at defensive end or defensive tackle in 2010.
Outside Linebacker (5): Clay Matthews, Brad Jones, Brady Poppinga, Cyril Obiozor, and Robert Francois. If Brandon Graham or Jerry Hughes (Sergio Kindle to a less extent) are still available at 23, take him and thank your lucky stars. Adding either Graham, Hughes, or Kindle would give the Packers two outstanding outside linebackers for the next decade. The only players that are guaranteed a roster spot are Matthews and Jones. After that, the Packers will hold an open competition for outside linebacker roster spots.
Middle Linebacker (4): Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk, Brandon Chillar, and Desmond Bishop. At middle linebacker, the Packers have one stud (Nick Barnett), two above average (Hawk and Chillar) and one high motor guy (Bishop)...suffice to say I don't think the Packers need to draft a middle linebackers.
Cornerback (9): Charles Woodson, Al Harris, Tramon Williams, Brandon Underwood, Pat Lee, Will Blackmon, Josh Bell, D.J. Clark, and Trevor Ford. If Ted Thompson is right and all the cornerbacks come back healthy, there is no reason to draft a cornerback. Unfortunately, there is a small chance that all the cornerbacks come back healthy so if the right cornerback is available, take him and be happy. The only cornerbacks assured a roster spot in 2010 are Charles Woodson, Al Harris, and Tramon Williams. After that, it will be a dog fight for Brandon Underwood, Pat Lee, Will Blackmon, Josh Bell, D.J. Clark, and Trevor Ford.
Safety (4): Nick Collins, Atari Bigby, Derrick Martin, and Khalil Jones. Bigby continues to be a head scratcher. When healthy, Bigby looks like a borderline pro bowler but we only get to see small glimpses of that because Bigby is rarely healthy. The Packers should add a safety on day two of the draft to compete with Bigby.
Special Teams (4): Chris Bryan, Mason Crosby, Brett Goode, and Tim Masthay. If there is a running back, wide receiver, or cornerback with return capabilities I completely support the Packers reaching for a guy. Besides that, the draft looks thin at punter so it looks like another season of crap punting is in our future.
The Green Bay Packers have eight selections in the 2010 NFL draft, here are rough guesses at positions Ted Thompson should look at depending on how the draft shakes out:
#23 (first round): offensive tackle or outside linebacker
#56 (second round): offensive tackle, defensive end or outside linebacker
#86 (third round): defensive back (cornerback or safety)
#122 (fourth round): outside linebacker or defensive back (cornerback or safety)
#154 (fifth round): offensive line or defensive back
#169 (compensatory selection): offensive line or defensive back
#193 (sixth round): best athlete available with return capabilities
#230 (seventh round): best athlete available with return capabilities
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Andrew Bogut's Season Ending Injury & Review of 2005 NBA Draft
Andrew Bogut broke his right index finger, dislocated his right elbow, and broke bones in his right forearm on April 3, 2010 in Milwaukee against the Phoenix Suns. If you have a strong stomach, check out the video on YouTube.
The biggest bummer about Bogut's injury is that it happened right when the Bucks were poised to make a deep playoff run. John Salmons was firing on all cylinders since joining the Bucks at the trade deadline, Brandon Jennings continues to take the NBA by storm, Bogut was starting to cement himself as one of the best centers in the NBA, and the supporting cast (Delfino, Ilyasova, The Prince, Ridnour, and Stackhouse) was filling their complementary role perfectly.
Since the aforementioned injury ended Bogut's fifth NBA season, it is a good time to determine whether Bogut was the right choice. Let's jump in Doc Brown's Delorean and head back to 2005.
Going into the 2005 Draft Lottery the Bucks had the 6th best odds (or a 6.3% chance) of landing the 1st pick. The Bucks won the lottery and leapfrogged the Atlanta Hawks. The Bucks winning the 2005 Draft Lottery gave them the 1st pick in the NBA Draft for the fourth time in franchise history (Bucks took Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1969, Kent Benson in 1977, and Glenn Robinson in 1994).
The 2005 NBA Draft produced two of the best point guards to enter the NBA in the last decade: Deron Williams went 3rd to Utah and Chris Paul went 4th to New Orleans but going into the 2005 NBA Draft, the debate was whether to take Andrew Bogut or Marvin Williams. No matter what people like to say now, going into the 2005 NBA Draft, Deron Williams and Chris Paul were the consensus 3rd and 4th best players.
As a quick side note, the 2005 NBA Draft was one of the worst drafts in recent memory. If you take Andrew Bogut, Deron Williams, and Chris Paul out of the equation the only other players to go to an all-star game from the 2005 NBA Draft were Danny Granger (went 17th to Indiana) and David Lee (went 30th to New York).
Here is how the Milwaukee Bucks roster (at least the potential starters, I left out the scrubs) looked going into the 2005 NBA Draft:
Guard: T.J. Ford, Mo Williams, and Michael Redd (on 08/18/05 Charlie Bell signed as a free agent)
Forward: Desmond Mason, Toni Kukoc, and Joe Smith (on 08/08/05 Bobby Simmons signed as a free agent and on 10/26/05 Desmond Mason was traded along with a first round pick for Jamaal Magloire)
Center: Dan Gadzuric and Zaza Pachulia (on 08/11/05 Zaza Pachulia signed as a free agent with the Atlanta Hawks)
The Bucks thought they were set at point guard (Ford), shooting guard (Redd), small forward (Mason/Simmons), and power forward (Smith & Kukoc) which meant the only hole in the roster was the center position. As every NBA pundit knows, the hardest position to fill is center. So talent and need aligned for the Bucks heading into the 2005 NBA Draft. That said, I always support taking the best player available, especially in the NBA.
To decide whether the Bucks made the right decision taking Bogut instead of Marvin Williams, let's look at the numbers:
Andrew Bogut's season-by-season numbers:
2005-06: 82 G, 77 GS, 28.6 MIN, 9.4 PTS, 7.0 RB, 2.3 AST, 0.80 BLK
2006-07: 66 G, 66 GS, 34.2 MIN, 12.3 PTS, 8.8 RB, 3.0 AST, 0.50 BLK
2007-08: 78 G, 78 GS, 34.9 MIN, 14.3 PTS, 9.7 RB, 2.6 AST, 1.70 BLK
2008-09: 36 G, 33 GS, 31.2 MIN, 11.7 PTS, 10.3 RB, 2.0 AST, 1.00 BLK
2009-10: 69 G, 69 GS, 32.3 MIN, 15.9 PTS, 10.1 RB, 1.8 AST, 2.50 BLK
Marvin Williams' season-by-season numbers:
2005-06: 79 G, 07 GS, 24.7 MIN, 8.5 PTS, 4.8 RB, 0.8 AST, 0.30 BLK
2006-07: 64 G, 63 GS, 34.0 MIN, 13.1 PTS, 5.3 RB, 1.9 AST, 0.50 BLK
2007-08: 80 G, 80 GS, 34.6 MIN, 14.8 PTS, 5.7 RB, 1.7 AST, 0.40 BLK
2008-09: 61 G, 59 GS, 34.3 MIN, 13.9 PTS, 6.3 RB, 1.3 AST, 0.60 BLK
2009-10: 81 G, 81 GS, 30.5 MIN, 10.1 PTS, 5.1 RB, 1.1 AST, 0.60 BLK
Andrew Bogut's career averages:
331 G, 323 GS, 32.3 MIN, 12.7 PTS, 9.0 RB, 2.4 AST, 1.4 BLK, 0.7 STL
Marvin Williams' career averages:
365 G, 290 GS, 31.4 MIN, 11.9 PTS, 5.4 RB, 1.4 AST, 0.5 BLK, 0.8 STL
As the numbers show, Andrew Bogut has been more injury prone than Marvin Williams but that is not a big surprise since Bogut is a center and Williams is a small forward. Besides appearances and steals, Bogut's numbers are better than Williams' across the board. Plus, Williams’ peaked in 2007-08 while Bogut’s numbers keep improving (Bogut's 2008-09 season numbers are a little skewed because he only played 36 games). I know things are a little raw right now since Bogut just suffered a season ending injury but things could be much worse...the Bucks could have taken Marvin Williams with the 1st pick in the 2005 NBA Draft instead of Andrew Bogut.
The biggest bummer about Bogut's injury is that it happened right when the Bucks were poised to make a deep playoff run. John Salmons was firing on all cylinders since joining the Bucks at the trade deadline, Brandon Jennings continues to take the NBA by storm, Bogut was starting to cement himself as one of the best centers in the NBA, and the supporting cast (Delfino, Ilyasova, The Prince, Ridnour, and Stackhouse) was filling their complementary role perfectly.
Since the aforementioned injury ended Bogut's fifth NBA season, it is a good time to determine whether Bogut was the right choice. Let's jump in Doc Brown's Delorean and head back to 2005.
Going into the 2005 Draft Lottery the Bucks had the 6th best odds (or a 6.3% chance) of landing the 1st pick. The Bucks won the lottery and leapfrogged the Atlanta Hawks. The Bucks winning the 2005 Draft Lottery gave them the 1st pick in the NBA Draft for the fourth time in franchise history (Bucks took Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1969, Kent Benson in 1977, and Glenn Robinson in 1994).
The 2005 NBA Draft produced two of the best point guards to enter the NBA in the last decade: Deron Williams went 3rd to Utah and Chris Paul went 4th to New Orleans but going into the 2005 NBA Draft, the debate was whether to take Andrew Bogut or Marvin Williams. No matter what people like to say now, going into the 2005 NBA Draft, Deron Williams and Chris Paul were the consensus 3rd and 4th best players.
As a quick side note, the 2005 NBA Draft was one of the worst drafts in recent memory. If you take Andrew Bogut, Deron Williams, and Chris Paul out of the equation the only other players to go to an all-star game from the 2005 NBA Draft were Danny Granger (went 17th to Indiana) and David Lee (went 30th to New York).
Here is how the Milwaukee Bucks roster (at least the potential starters, I left out the scrubs) looked going into the 2005 NBA Draft:
Guard: T.J. Ford, Mo Williams, and Michael Redd (on 08/18/05 Charlie Bell signed as a free agent)
Forward: Desmond Mason, Toni Kukoc, and Joe Smith (on 08/08/05 Bobby Simmons signed as a free agent and on 10/26/05 Desmond Mason was traded along with a first round pick for Jamaal Magloire)
Center: Dan Gadzuric and Zaza Pachulia (on 08/11/05 Zaza Pachulia signed as a free agent with the Atlanta Hawks)
The Bucks thought they were set at point guard (Ford), shooting guard (Redd), small forward (Mason/Simmons), and power forward (Smith & Kukoc) which meant the only hole in the roster was the center position. As every NBA pundit knows, the hardest position to fill is center. So talent and need aligned for the Bucks heading into the 2005 NBA Draft. That said, I always support taking the best player available, especially in the NBA.
To decide whether the Bucks made the right decision taking Bogut instead of Marvin Williams, let's look at the numbers:
Andrew Bogut's season-by-season numbers:
2005-06: 82 G, 77 GS, 28.6 MIN, 9.4 PTS, 7.0 RB, 2.3 AST, 0.80 BLK
2006-07: 66 G, 66 GS, 34.2 MIN, 12.3 PTS, 8.8 RB, 3.0 AST, 0.50 BLK
2007-08: 78 G, 78 GS, 34.9 MIN, 14.3 PTS, 9.7 RB, 2.6 AST, 1.70 BLK
2008-09: 36 G, 33 GS, 31.2 MIN, 11.7 PTS, 10.3 RB, 2.0 AST, 1.00 BLK
2009-10: 69 G, 69 GS, 32.3 MIN, 15.9 PTS, 10.1 RB, 1.8 AST, 2.50 BLK
Marvin Williams' season-by-season numbers:
2005-06: 79 G, 07 GS, 24.7 MIN, 8.5 PTS, 4.8 RB, 0.8 AST, 0.30 BLK
2006-07: 64 G, 63 GS, 34.0 MIN, 13.1 PTS, 5.3 RB, 1.9 AST, 0.50 BLK
2007-08: 80 G, 80 GS, 34.6 MIN, 14.8 PTS, 5.7 RB, 1.7 AST, 0.40 BLK
2008-09: 61 G, 59 GS, 34.3 MIN, 13.9 PTS, 6.3 RB, 1.3 AST, 0.60 BLK
2009-10: 81 G, 81 GS, 30.5 MIN, 10.1 PTS, 5.1 RB, 1.1 AST, 0.60 BLK
Andrew Bogut's career averages:
331 G, 323 GS, 32.3 MIN, 12.7 PTS, 9.0 RB, 2.4 AST, 1.4 BLK, 0.7 STL
Marvin Williams' career averages:
365 G, 290 GS, 31.4 MIN, 11.9 PTS, 5.4 RB, 1.4 AST, 0.5 BLK, 0.8 STL
As the numbers show, Andrew Bogut has been more injury prone than Marvin Williams but that is not a big surprise since Bogut is a center and Williams is a small forward. Besides appearances and steals, Bogut's numbers are better than Williams' across the board. Plus, Williams’ peaked in 2007-08 while Bogut’s numbers keep improving (Bogut's 2008-09 season numbers are a little skewed because he only played 36 games). I know things are a little raw right now since Bogut just suffered a season ending injury but things could be much worse...the Bucks could have taken Marvin Williams with the 1st pick in the 2005 NBA Draft instead of Andrew Bogut.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Ranking 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster
Congrats to these 25 guys (and 4 guys on the disabled list) that made the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster...it is truly a Sunday Funday for them:
Pitchers (12): Dave Bush (R), Todd Coffey (R), Doug Davis (L), Yovani Gallardo (R), LaTroy Hawkins (R), Trevor Hoffman (R), Chris Narveson (L), Manny Parra (L), Mitch Stetter (L), Claudio Vargas (R), Carlos Villanueva (R), and Randy Wolf (L).
Catchers (2): George Kottaras and Gregg Zaun.
Infielders (6): Craig Counsell (UTIL), Alcides Escobar (SS), Prince Fielder (1B), Joe Inglett (UTIL), Casey McGehee (3B), and Rickie Weeks (2B).
Outfielders (5): Ryan Braun (LF), Jim Edmonds (CF), Jody Gerut (UTIL), Carlos Gomez (CF), and Corey Hart (RF).
Disabled List: Jeff Suppan (RHP), David Riske (RHP), Josh Butler (RHP), and Mat Gamel (3B).
Take a look back at my predictions of which players would make the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster. Keep in mind I made my predictions at the start of spring training on February 24, 2010 and I was still 23 of 24 (since Jeff Suppan started the season on the DL). I predicted the Brewers would keep Scott Schoeneweis (LHP) instead of Chris Narveson (LHP). The Brewers made the right decision keeping Narveson, he was much more impressive than Schoeneweis in spring training and rightly deserved to make the team ahead of Schoeneweis.
With the niceties out of the way, here is how I rank the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster:
#25) Joe Inglett (UTIL): much like Jose Canseco, minus the steroids and antics, I feel vindicated that Doug Melvin kept Inglett on the 25-man opening day roster. If you look back at my pre-spring training predictions from February 24, 2010 I called that Inglett would make the roster. As you can see, I don't think Inglett brings much to the table since I ranked him 25th out of 25 guys...I am just happy my prediction came true.
#24) Claudio Vargas (RHP): after coming over from the L.A. Dodgers in 2009, Vargas was almost unhittable: 1.78 ERA in 28 appearances over 30.1 innings. That performance lead the Brewers to offer Vargas a one-year, $900,000 contract but the Brewers have a number of right-handed arms in the bullpen that are better than Vargas so he better perform if he wants to stay in Milwaukee for the entire season.
#23) Jody Gerut (OF): it still blows me away that Doug Melvin traded Tony Gwynn Jr. (27 years old) to the San Diego Padres for Gerut (32 years old). Melvin said he traded Tony Gwynn Jr. because of his offensive deficiencies but Gerut hit .236 last year for the Brewers while Gwynn hit .270 for the Padres.
#22) Jim Edmonds (CF): it pains me (and my buddy Gaber even more) that Edmonds is playing for the Brewers. The fact that the Brewers have to rely on a 40 year old guy that didn't even play baseball last year does not bode well for the season...or the three guys ranked below Edmonds.
#21) Carlos Villanueva (RHP): is the Bill Hall of pitchers. The Brewers cannot decide where to pitch Villanueva (starter, long relief, set-up man, or closer) and it has adversely impacted his progression. Much like Stetter, Villanueva is one of the only relievers with minor league options so he might have a cup of coffee in Triple-A depending on how he starts the season.
#20) George Kottaras (C): may be the quietest pick-up by Melvin in the off-season could loom large since Zaun turns 75 this season. Luckily for the Brewers, Boston waived Kottaras in favor of bringing back the carcus of Jason Varitek.
#19) Mitch Stetter (LHP): has been an effective situational reliever against left-handed hitters but will have to show he can get left and right-handed hitters if he wants to stay in the majors. Stetter could get sent down to Triple-A when the injury bug hits the Brewers because he still has minor league options.
#18) Manny Parra (LHP): similar to Rickie Weeks, its time for Parra to produce. Every year Parra has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy but every year he never backs up that potential with actual production. If Parra had minor league options he would have started the season in Triple-A, unfortunately the Brewers don't have that luxury.
#17) Chris Narveson (LHP): not too sure if this is more about Narveson being out of minor league options or the Brewers thinking he can be effective out of the pen or as a starter once someone goes on the disabled list?
#16) LaTroy Hawkins (RHP): similar to my Suppan/Wolf comparison above...Hawkins reminds me of Dave Riske...oh dang.
#15) Gregg Zaun (C): not too sure why Melvin decided to "save money" on the catcher position by bringing in Zaun, who turns 39 this season, to start for the first time in his career. Why not bring back Kendall even if it costs you $1 million more than Zaun? It’s as if Melvin bought a bunch of expensive cars (Wolf, Hawkins, and Davis) but balked at filling it with premium unleaded and filled it with regular unleaded instead.
#14) Doug Davis (LHP): I feel horrible for Doug Davis and his family that Doug has battled serious health problems the last few years. That said, Doug Melvin knew about Davis' health issues, so why did he offer Davis a contract? Plus, Davis is possibly the slowest, most deliberate pitcher in baseball which means I will skip watching any of his starts live.
#13) Craig Counsell (UTIL): despite turning 40 this season, the Brewers had to bring Counsell back after he hit .285 in 130 games over 404 at-bats in 2009. Counsell filled in admirably at second base after Weeks was predictably lost for the season. Counsell reminds me of Richard Alpert from Lost...he doesn't age.
#12) Dave Bush (RHP): had his 2009 season cut short when he took a line drive off his pitching elbow. Bush looks fully recovered and should become a consistent middle of the rotation guy in a left-hand dominated starting rotation.
#11) Carlos Gomez (CF): is the player the Brewers got from the Minnesota Twins for J.J. Hardy. Gomez was the key player the Minnesota Twins received from the New York Mets for Johan Santana but has yet to produce consistently in the majors. Much like Rickie Weeks, Gomez has the potential to be a dynamic player but has not capitalized on that potential.
#10) Alcides Escobar (SS): the Brewers traded former fan favorite J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins to make way for Escobar. There is no question that Escobar is one of the best defensive shortstops in MLB, the question is whether Escobar can produce on offense?
#9) Corey Hart (RF): some guys get by on talent despite being seemingly devoid of common sense...Corey Hart is that guy. Case and point, why did Hart wait until the start of spring training to correct his vision problems? Hart somehow won his salary arbitration hearing so unless he performs, Brewers fans will make him the #2 whipping boy behind Jeff Suppan.
#8) Todd Coffey (RHP): has been a bullpen workhorse for the Brewers since Doug Melvin claimed Coffey off waivers from Cincinnati in 2008. If I were Ken Macha, Coffey would be my set-up guy for closer Trevor Hoffman.
#7) Rickie Weeks (2B): at some point Weeks has to produce on the major league level like he did in college. Weeks has an amazing skill set but in five major league seasons he has only played more than 100 games twice.
#6) Randy Wolf (LHP): I hope I am wrong but I am on record as saying that Wolf is the left-handed Jeff Suppan. Wolf is owed a little less than $30 million over the next three seasons and the Brewers do not even view Wolf as a #1 starter. Wolf is Exhibit A for how costly it can be if you do not develop pitching through the farm system.
#5) Casey McGehee (3B): was not even penciled in to start at 3rd base for the Brewers and still ended up finishing 5th in the National League Rookie of the Year Award. Will 2009 be a flash in the pan for McGehee or did the Brewers finally identify an everyday 3rd basemen?
#4) Trevor Hoffman (RHP): with the lack of pitching depth in the Brewers' farm system, every Brewer fan better hope that old age does not catch up with Hoffman this season.
#3) Yovani Gallardo (RHP): the Brewers have struggled mightily to draft pitchers but Gallardo is the exception to those struggles. Gallardo is a legitimate #1 starter in the making and Doug Melvin should lock him up long-term as long as it is not a Teddy Higuera type contract. I actually think Higuera and his progeny are still under contract with the Brewers through 2050.
#2) Prince Fielder (1B): the first half of 2010 will determine where Prince plays the next 8 seasons of his career. The two variables that will intersect throughout the first half of the season are Prince's production and the Brewers' record. If the Brewers fall out of playoff contention by the All-Star break, Doug Melvin will be forced to trade Prince since Prince's value will only diminish the closer he gets to free agency at the end of the 2011 season.
#1) Ryan Braun (LF): in case you missed it, check out my Sunday Funday - Ryan Braun's Contract from last week to see how grossly underpaid Braun is for being the best player on the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers. When the Brewers moved Braun from 3rd base to left field, Braun took his offense to another level. I know it is early in Braun's career but if he continues on his current trajectory, Braun has a chance to go down as one of the all-time Brewer greats.
If you have read this far I want to thank you for supporting my rambling thoughts. Check back throughout the season for updates to the rankings because the Brewers have not played a meaningful baseball game in 2010 yet so the rankings will probably look drastically different as the season goes on.
Pitchers (12): Dave Bush (R), Todd Coffey (R), Doug Davis (L), Yovani Gallardo (R), LaTroy Hawkins (R), Trevor Hoffman (R), Chris Narveson (L), Manny Parra (L), Mitch Stetter (L), Claudio Vargas (R), Carlos Villanueva (R), and Randy Wolf (L).
Catchers (2): George Kottaras and Gregg Zaun.
Infielders (6): Craig Counsell (UTIL), Alcides Escobar (SS), Prince Fielder (1B), Joe Inglett (UTIL), Casey McGehee (3B), and Rickie Weeks (2B).
Outfielders (5): Ryan Braun (LF), Jim Edmonds (CF), Jody Gerut (UTIL), Carlos Gomez (CF), and Corey Hart (RF).
Disabled List: Jeff Suppan (RHP), David Riske (RHP), Josh Butler (RHP), and Mat Gamel (3B).
Take a look back at my predictions of which players would make the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster. Keep in mind I made my predictions at the start of spring training on February 24, 2010 and I was still 23 of 24 (since Jeff Suppan started the season on the DL). I predicted the Brewers would keep Scott Schoeneweis (LHP) instead of Chris Narveson (LHP). The Brewers made the right decision keeping Narveson, he was much more impressive than Schoeneweis in spring training and rightly deserved to make the team ahead of Schoeneweis.
With the niceties out of the way, here is how I rank the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day Roster:
#25) Joe Inglett (UTIL): much like Jose Canseco, minus the steroids and antics, I feel vindicated that Doug Melvin kept Inglett on the 25-man opening day roster. If you look back at my pre-spring training predictions from February 24, 2010 I called that Inglett would make the roster. As you can see, I don't think Inglett brings much to the table since I ranked him 25th out of 25 guys...I am just happy my prediction came true.
#24) Claudio Vargas (RHP): after coming over from the L.A. Dodgers in 2009, Vargas was almost unhittable: 1.78 ERA in 28 appearances over 30.1 innings. That performance lead the Brewers to offer Vargas a one-year, $900,000 contract but the Brewers have a number of right-handed arms in the bullpen that are better than Vargas so he better perform if he wants to stay in Milwaukee for the entire season.
#23) Jody Gerut (OF): it still blows me away that Doug Melvin traded Tony Gwynn Jr. (27 years old) to the San Diego Padres for Gerut (32 years old). Melvin said he traded Tony Gwynn Jr. because of his offensive deficiencies but Gerut hit .236 last year for the Brewers while Gwynn hit .270 for the Padres.
#22) Jim Edmonds (CF): it pains me (and my buddy Gaber even more) that Edmonds is playing for the Brewers. The fact that the Brewers have to rely on a 40 year old guy that didn't even play baseball last year does not bode well for the season...or the three guys ranked below Edmonds.
#21) Carlos Villanueva (RHP): is the Bill Hall of pitchers. The Brewers cannot decide where to pitch Villanueva (starter, long relief, set-up man, or closer) and it has adversely impacted his progression. Much like Stetter, Villanueva is one of the only relievers with minor league options so he might have a cup of coffee in Triple-A depending on how he starts the season.
#20) George Kottaras (C): may be the quietest pick-up by Melvin in the off-season could loom large since Zaun turns 75 this season. Luckily for the Brewers, Boston waived Kottaras in favor of bringing back the carcus of Jason Varitek.
#19) Mitch Stetter (LHP): has been an effective situational reliever against left-handed hitters but will have to show he can get left and right-handed hitters if he wants to stay in the majors. Stetter could get sent down to Triple-A when the injury bug hits the Brewers because he still has minor league options.
#18) Manny Parra (LHP): similar to Rickie Weeks, its time for Parra to produce. Every year Parra has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy but every year he never backs up that potential with actual production. If Parra had minor league options he would have started the season in Triple-A, unfortunately the Brewers don't have that luxury.
#17) Chris Narveson (LHP): not too sure if this is more about Narveson being out of minor league options or the Brewers thinking he can be effective out of the pen or as a starter once someone goes on the disabled list?
#16) LaTroy Hawkins (RHP): similar to my Suppan/Wolf comparison above...Hawkins reminds me of Dave Riske...oh dang.
#15) Gregg Zaun (C): not too sure why Melvin decided to "save money" on the catcher position by bringing in Zaun, who turns 39 this season, to start for the first time in his career. Why not bring back Kendall even if it costs you $1 million more than Zaun? It’s as if Melvin bought a bunch of expensive cars (Wolf, Hawkins, and Davis) but balked at filling it with premium unleaded and filled it with regular unleaded instead.
#14) Doug Davis (LHP): I feel horrible for Doug Davis and his family that Doug has battled serious health problems the last few years. That said, Doug Melvin knew about Davis' health issues, so why did he offer Davis a contract? Plus, Davis is possibly the slowest, most deliberate pitcher in baseball which means I will skip watching any of his starts live.
#13) Craig Counsell (UTIL): despite turning 40 this season, the Brewers had to bring Counsell back after he hit .285 in 130 games over 404 at-bats in 2009. Counsell filled in admirably at second base after Weeks was predictably lost for the season. Counsell reminds me of Richard Alpert from Lost...he doesn't age.
#12) Dave Bush (RHP): had his 2009 season cut short when he took a line drive off his pitching elbow. Bush looks fully recovered and should become a consistent middle of the rotation guy in a left-hand dominated starting rotation.
#11) Carlos Gomez (CF): is the player the Brewers got from the Minnesota Twins for J.J. Hardy. Gomez was the key player the Minnesota Twins received from the New York Mets for Johan Santana but has yet to produce consistently in the majors. Much like Rickie Weeks, Gomez has the potential to be a dynamic player but has not capitalized on that potential.
#10) Alcides Escobar (SS): the Brewers traded former fan favorite J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins to make way for Escobar. There is no question that Escobar is one of the best defensive shortstops in MLB, the question is whether Escobar can produce on offense?
#9) Corey Hart (RF): some guys get by on talent despite being seemingly devoid of common sense...Corey Hart is that guy. Case and point, why did Hart wait until the start of spring training to correct his vision problems? Hart somehow won his salary arbitration hearing so unless he performs, Brewers fans will make him the #2 whipping boy behind Jeff Suppan.
#8) Todd Coffey (RHP): has been a bullpen workhorse for the Brewers since Doug Melvin claimed Coffey off waivers from Cincinnati in 2008. If I were Ken Macha, Coffey would be my set-up guy for closer Trevor Hoffman.
#7) Rickie Weeks (2B): at some point Weeks has to produce on the major league level like he did in college. Weeks has an amazing skill set but in five major league seasons he has only played more than 100 games twice.
#6) Randy Wolf (LHP): I hope I am wrong but I am on record as saying that Wolf is the left-handed Jeff Suppan. Wolf is owed a little less than $30 million over the next three seasons and the Brewers do not even view Wolf as a #1 starter. Wolf is Exhibit A for how costly it can be if you do not develop pitching through the farm system.
#5) Casey McGehee (3B): was not even penciled in to start at 3rd base for the Brewers and still ended up finishing 5th in the National League Rookie of the Year Award. Will 2009 be a flash in the pan for McGehee or did the Brewers finally identify an everyday 3rd basemen?
#4) Trevor Hoffman (RHP): with the lack of pitching depth in the Brewers' farm system, every Brewer fan better hope that old age does not catch up with Hoffman this season.
#3) Yovani Gallardo (RHP): the Brewers have struggled mightily to draft pitchers but Gallardo is the exception to those struggles. Gallardo is a legitimate #1 starter in the making and Doug Melvin should lock him up long-term as long as it is not a Teddy Higuera type contract. I actually think Higuera and his progeny are still under contract with the Brewers through 2050.
#2) Prince Fielder (1B): the first half of 2010 will determine where Prince plays the next 8 seasons of his career. The two variables that will intersect throughout the first half of the season are Prince's production and the Brewers' record. If the Brewers fall out of playoff contention by the All-Star break, Doug Melvin will be forced to trade Prince since Prince's value will only diminish the closer he gets to free agency at the end of the 2011 season.
#1) Ryan Braun (LF): in case you missed it, check out my Sunday Funday - Ryan Braun's Contract from last week to see how grossly underpaid Braun is for being the best player on the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers. When the Brewers moved Braun from 3rd base to left field, Braun took his offense to another level. I know it is early in Braun's career but if he continues on his current trajectory, Braun has a chance to go down as one of the all-time Brewer greats.
If you have read this far I want to thank you for supporting my rambling thoughts. Check back throughout the season for updates to the rankings because the Brewers have not played a meaningful baseball game in 2010 yet so the rankings will probably look drastically different as the season goes on.
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