Man City Report - On Fire Thanks to Six Wins in Six Matches

Following the third international break of the season, Man City had six matches from late November through early December: four EPL matches and two UEFA Champions League group stage matches.  Man City won two of the last three EPL titles so the next logical step for them to become one of the most successful clubs in the world is to win the Champions League, which is why the sixth of those six matches was the most important on the road against Roma in the Champions League.

The international break did some good for Man City because in the first of their six matches following the international break they beat Swansea 2-1 at home in the EPL.  Man City's Champions League chances were kept on life support thanks to a hat trick by Sergio Aguero to beat Bayern Munich 3-2 at home.  That qualify form carried over into the EPL as Man City trounced Southampton 3-0 on the road to jump leapfrog them into second place in the EPL standings.  Man City followed that up with another road victory in the EPL, this time 4-1 over Sunderland.  Man City returned home for a hard fought 1-0 victory over Everton in the EPL just hours after Chelsea lost to Newcastle to narrow Chelsea's lead in the table to just three points.  Man City not only won their sixth match in a row with a 2-0 road win over Roma in the Champions League but thanks to a CSKA loss to Bayern Munich, Man City improbably qualified for the knockout stages of the Champions League thanks to taking 6 points in their last two Champions League matches after they earned just two points in their first four matches.

Here are my updated player rankings for Man City following their best six match stretch (so far) of the 2014-15 season:

6) Samir Nasri (M, LR 7): If Man City are somehow able to win the Champions League this year, there is no doubt that Nasri's howler that put Man City up 1-0 over Roma will go down as one of the more important goals in club history.  Last year I was bummed that Man City finished second in their group to Bayern Munich because it mean that they faced Barcelona in the knockout stage.  This year, I am just happy to see Man City progress to the knockout stage.  Given Champions League knockout stage rules, since Man City finished second in their group they will face one of the eight group winners but cannot face the team from their group (Bayern Munich) or another club from their country (Chelsea), which leaves six other teams that Man City could face in the knockout stage.  Here are my rankings of the match-ups from best to worst for Man City: FC Porto, AS Monaco, Athletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Barcelona, and Real Madrid. It is all gravy in the Champions League at this point given how dire things looked just two matches ago in the group stages.  As long as Man City do NOT have to face Real Madrid or Barcelona in the knockout stages, I like their chances to move onto the quarterfinals and one step closer to a Champions League title.

2014-15 Player Rankings 3.0

1. Sergio Aguero (F, LR 1) 2. Vincent Kompany (D, LR 2) 3. Yaya Toure (M, LR 3) 4. David Silva (M, LR 4) 5. Pablo Zabaleta (D, LR 5) 6. Samir Nasri (M, LR 7) 7. Edin Dzeko (F, LR 6) 8. Joe Hart (GK, LR 8) 9. James Milner (M, LR 9) 10. Jesus Navas (M, LR 10) 11. Eliaquim Mangala (D, LR 15) 12. Stevan Jovetic (F, LR 13) 13. Aleksandar Kolarov (D, LR 11) 14. Fernandinho (M, LR 12) 15. Fernando (M, LR 14) 16. Gael Clichy (D, LR 16) 17. Martin Demichelis (D, LR 17) 18. Bacary Sagna (D, LR 18) 19. Willy Caballero (GK, LR 19) 20. José Ángel Pozo (M, LR 23) 21. Dedryck Boyata (D, LR 20) 22. Scott Sinclair (M, LR 22) 23. Matija Nastasic (D, LR 21) 24. Sinan Bytyqi (M, LR 24) 25. Frank Lampard (M, LR 25) 26. Richard Wright (GK, LR 26)

18) Bacary Sagna (D, LR 18): Given that Gareth Barry and Javi Garcia were sold this summer, I really had to stretch to find a current member of Man City besides Frank Lampard that looks likely to play for Man City's MLS "Sister" club New York City FC.  Despite the fact that Sagna joined Man City on a free transfer from Arsenal this summer, Man City signed Sagna to a three-year, $235,000 a week contract.  That weekly contract is way too rich for a striker as a designated player, let alone a right back so I would be shocked if Sagna left for New York City FC till after his contract expires after the 2016-17 season.  This is really an elaborate ruse to recap New York City FC's expansion draft results couched under a description of a current Man City player so instead of trying to continue this ruse, let's just look at New York City FC's expansion draft results.  Subject to a number of rules, Orlando and New York City FC were each able to select 10 players in the expansion draft.  Here are the players that NYCFC selected: Ned Grabavoy (M, Salt Lake), Patrick Mullins (F, New England), Jason Hernandez (D, San Jose), Daniel Lovitz (M, Toronto), Tony Taylor (F, New England), Mehdi Ballouchy (M, Vancouver), George John (D, Dallas), Thomas McNamara (M, D.C. United), Sal Zizzo (M, Kansas City), and Chris Wingert (D, Salt Lake).  I will do my best to brush up on the list above because before today I had never heard of any of those guys besides Mullins and John.  I am the same guy that gets up at the crack of dawn on the weekends to catch EPL matches so I am not sure if that is more of an indictment on me or the MLS that I only know two of the ten MLS players selected by New York City FC in the MLS expansion draft.

20) José Ángel Pozo (M, LR 23): With Sergio Aguero out until at least the start of 2015 and possibly longer, the third striker available to Pellegrini is Pozos, which seems downright crazy given that Man City is one of the richest clubs in the world.  Some referred to Pozos as "Mini Messi", in the words of Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers R-E-L-A-X.  Sure Rodgers used relax differently than I am using it here but let's keep in mind that Pozos is only 18 years old while Messi is arguably the best club striker of all-time even though he is only 27 years old.  Before you get too excited, note the use of the word "club".  I know Messi has NOT won a World Cup with Argentina, which is why I said he is the most successful club striker.  If Messi were to somehow win a World Cup in 2018 in Russia or 2022 in Qatar, with all due respect to Pele, he will go down as the best striker of all-time.  Back to Pozos, the fact that he is the third option at striker with Aguero out is exactly the reason that I did NOT support Man City's decision to loan out striker Alvaro Negredo to help comply with UEFA Financial Fair Play Regulations.  Let's hope that Pozos can grow up fast or Aguero can recover from injury sooner rather expected, otherwise Man City's title chase could be over before the start of 2015 because of Man City's packed but relatively easy EPL slate for the rest of 2014: road against Leicester, home against Crystal Palace, road against West Brom, and home against Burnley.  That does NOT mean Man City should get complacent though because anything less than 12 points will be a disappointment.

Check back following Man City's match at home against Burnley for my thoughts on how Man City manager Manuel Pellegrini should approach the January transfer window.

Man City Report - So Far So Good...NOT Great...Just Good

It has been an interesting start to the 2014-15 season for Man City.  After a great start to their EPL title defense (beat Newcastle and Liverpool), Man City got a very tough draw in Group E (Bayern Munich, CSKA Moscow, and Roma) of the Champions League group stage.  A few days after my look at Man City's tough Champions League group stage draw, Man City went into the first international break of the season with a whimper thanks to a 1-0 at home loss to Stoke.

Man City didn't do much to improve their roster in the 2014 Summer Transfer Window, instead they tried to clean-up their books to comply with UEFA's Financial Fair Play Regulations.  Coming out of the first international break, Man City had seven matches in September and early October before the next international break: four EPL matches, two UEFA Champions League group stage matches, and one Capital One Cup match.

In the first of the aforementioned matches, Man City tied Arsenal 2-2 on the road in the EPL.  Man City followed that up with a loss on the road 1-0 to Bayern Munich on a goal by former Man City defender Jerome Boetang at the death in their opening Champions League match.  Man City returned home to notch a 1-1 tie against Chelsea in the EPL thanks to a strike by former Chelsea midfielder Frank Lampard.  Man City followed that up with a 7-0 home win over Sheffield Wednesday in the Capital One Cup where all seven goals were scored in the second half.  Man City righted the ship in the EPL with a 4-2 win over Hull City on the road.  Man City closed out September with a 1-1 tie at home to AS Roma in their second of six Champions League group stage matches.  Finally Man City beat Aston Villa 2-0 on the road in the EPL to head into their second international break on a high note despite a couple uneven performances in September.

Here are my initial rankings of the roster for Man City at the second international break of the 2014-15 season:

1) Yaya Toure (M): In the off-season speculation swirled that Toure might leave the club after he was less than please with how Man City recognized his 31st birthday on May 13, 2014.  Keep in mind that happened just two days after Toure helped Man City win their second EPL title in three years...so much for enjoying their EPL title.  For how well Toure played in the EPL last season when he scored 20 goals, he started the 2014-15 EPL season with a hangover.  Still Toure's ability to dictate the pace of an entire match makes him one of the most irreplaceable players in the world, which means Man City need to sort out how they are going to fill their central midfield spots when they lose Toure for almost a month for the African Cup of Nations in early 2015.

2014-15 Player Rankings 1.0

1. Yaya Toure (M) 2. Sergio Aguero (F) 3. Vincent Kompany (D) 4. David Silva (M) 5. Pablo Zabaleta (D) 6. Samir Nasri (M) 7. Edin Dzeko (F) 8. Fernandinho (M) 9. Joe Hart (GK) 10. Jesus Navas (M) 11. James Milner (M) 12. Fernando (M) 13. Stevan Jovetic (F) 14. Eliaquim Mangala (D) 15. Aleksandar Kolarov (D) 16. Gael Clichy (D) 17. Martin Demichelis (D) 18. Willy Caballero (GK) 19. Bacary Sagna (D) 20. Matija Nastasic (D) 21. Dedryck Boyata (D) 22. Scott Sinclair (M)  23. José Ángel Pozo (M) 24. Sinan Bytyqi (M) 25. Frank Lampard (M) 26. Richard Wright (GK)

9) Joe Hart (GK): When manager Manuel Pellegrini purchased goalkeeper Willy Caballero for $10 million from Malaga before the season, Hart must have wondered how secure his spot was as Man City's starting keeper.  In just the 3rd EPL match of the season Hart conceded a horrible nutmeg goal to Stoke for Man City to lose 1-0 at home, which really put his starting spot in question.  In an odd twist, just a few days later Hart signed a five-year contract extension with Man City, which had to give Hart some security.  Needless to say, the last few months have been a roller coaster for Hart.  If I were Pellegrini I would ride Hart at all cost but given that Pellegrini spent $10 million on Caballero, he is clearly not ready to ride Hart at all cost despite signing him to a five-year contract extension so it will be interesting to see how the starting goalkeeper position plays out this season for Man City.

14) Eliaquim Mangala (D): Man City have been searching for a central defender to slot next to Vincent Kompany for almost five seasons.  In my review of the 2014 Summer Transfer Window for Man City, I wondered how long it would take Mangala to perform well in the EPL. If Mangala's performance against Hull City (conceded an own goal and fouled a player in the box to concede a penalty) is any indication of how he will perform for the club over the long haul then Mangala picked up where Jolean Lescott and Matija Nastasic left off.  Sadly at this point that means that Martin Demichelis is a better option than Mangala next to Kompany.

25) Frank Lampard (M): My ranking of Lampard is a good illustration of how these rankings work.  Clearly Lampard is much more talented than 25th on the roster but he is on loan from Man City's MLS "sister" club New York City FC, which severely decreases his value since Man City has almost zero chance of keeping him long-term.  Lampard scored a goal against Chelsea to help Man City gut out a draw against his former club.  In a touch of class, Lampard did not celebrate his goal against Chelsea, which makes sense given that he scored the most goals in club history for Chelsea despite not even being a striker.  Lampard followed up that goal with two more against Sheffield Wednesday in the Capital One Cup and scored another goal against Hull City in the EPL.  Given Lampard's age, Man City can ill afford to start him regularly.  Instead they can use Lamard as a "super-sub" of sorts so they can get him into almost every match.  Once Lampard scored against Chelsea, the rumor mill of keeping Lampard on loan past January started and went into over drive after his performances against Sheffield Wednesday and Hull City.  I would be surprised if New York City FC was so accommodating to Man City unless they could get an outlandish fee from Man City for Lampard's services through the end of the 2014-15 EPL season, which doesn't seem likely given all the pressure Man City is under to comply with UEFA's Financial Fair Play Regulations.

Unless something major happens, make sure to check back after the next international break in early November for another Man City Report.

Man City Report - UEFA Champions League Draw

Manchester City stubbed their toe to start the season losing 3-0 to Arsenal in the FA Community Shield, a match that is thankfully meaningless because it merely pits last season's FA Cup Champion (Arsenal) v. the English Premier League ("EPL") Champion (Man City) in a "showcase" match.  For how poorly the FA Community Shield went for Man City, they started their 2014-15 EPL campaign well with a 2-0 road win over Newcastle and followed that up with a 3-1 home win over Liverpool in their first home EPL match of the season.

I am working on a mega review of the summer transfer window for Man City but given that today the groups were drawn for the 2014-15 UEFA Champions League, I thought I would give my quick Man City centric thoughts on the draw.  By way of background, this is the fourth season in a row (and overall) that Man City is participating in the UEFA Champions League. Much like the World Cup draw, teams are split into four groups with some rules governing (e.g. clubs from the same country cannot be drawn into the same group) how the groups are drawn. 

In 2011-12 Man City drew Bayern Munich, Napoli and Villarreal in the group stage.  Although Man City played well in all six matches, they missed getting out of their group by one point.  In 2012-13 Man City drew Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid and Ajax in the group stage.   For how well Man City played in 2011-12 Champions League group stage, they played the exact opposite in 2012-13 Champions League group stage en route to finishing last in their group.

In 2013-14 Man City drew Bayern Munich, CSKA Moscow and Viktoria Plzeň in the group stage.  Third times a charm because Man City made it out of their group in the Champions League for the first time ever.  Unfortunately since Man City finished second in their group behind Bayern Munich and they drew Barcelona in the knockout stages.  Man City played decent in their home-and-home against Barcelona but ultimately Barcelona went through ahead of Man City.

Given that Man City won two of the last three EPL tittles, expectations are much higher for the club now than just a few seasons ago.  Given their domestic league success, European success is the next box that they need to check if they want to be considered one of the elite clubs in the world that starts with the 2014-15 UEFA Champions League.

Going into the group stage selections for 2014-15 UEFA Champions League, I decided to develop some power rankings for each group.  Just to make these rankings crystal clear, the first team in each pot is the team I would least like the Man City to be drawn against, so on and so forth.  It is sort of academic for Pot Two since the Man City cannot be drawn with any of those teams but I thought it would be a nice way for me to rank the teams as they are currently constituted.  Here are the four pots with my rankings (best to worst) within each pot:

Pot One: Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Chelsea, Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, Benfica, and Porto

Pot Two: Manchester City, Paris St-Germain, Borussia Dortmund, Juventus, Zenit St Petersburg, Schalke, Shakhtar Donetsk, and Basel

Pot Three: Bayer Leverkusen, Liverpool, Ajax, CSKA Moscow, Athletic Bilbao, Sporting Lisbon, Galatasaray, and Olympiakos

Pot Four: Roma, Monaco, Anderlecht, APOEL Nicosia, BATE Borisov, Ludogorets Razgrad, Malmo, and Maribor.

This may seem redundant but that means going into the draw I thought the best possible result for Man City was Porto, Olympiakos, and Maribor while the worst possible result was Bayern Munich, Bayer Leverkusen, and Roma.  Technically that draw would not be possible because Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen are both German clubs but you get the point of the thought experiment.  Again groups matter because only the top two teams from each group qualify for the knock-out stage.  Here is the full list of the groups for the 2014-15 UEFA Champions League:

Group A: Atletico Madrid, Juventus, Olympiakos, Malmo

Group B: Real Madrid, Basel, Liverpool, Ludogorets

Group C: Benfica, Zenit, Bayer Leverkusen, AS Monaco

Group D: Arsenal, Borussia Dortmund, Galatasaray, Anderlecht

Group E: Bayern Munich, Manchester City, CSKA Moscow, Roma

Group F: FC Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, Ajax, APOEL Nicosia

Group G: Chelsea, Schalke, Sporting Lisbon, Maribor

Group H: FC Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk, Athletic Bilbao, BATE Borisov

Well as luck would have it, Man City got almost the worst draw possible.  For the second year in a row, Man City are in the same group as Bayern Munich and CSKA Moscow.  Instead of having Viktoria Plzeň as the third member of their group this year, unfortunately they drew Roma.

I don't want to sound too defeatist but given Bayern's quality that essentially relegates Man City to playing for second place in the group.  CSKA Moscow is always a tough draw and Roma was placed in Pot Four because they have a lower co-efficient according to UEFA based on their most recent results in European competition but are always a plucky team.  Of all the clubs in Pot Four UEFA coefficient aside, I honestly think Roma should at least be in Pot Three.

In the World Cup, teams play each other once.  In the Champions League, every team plays each other twice: once at home and once on the road for six matches total.  Hopefully Man City will be able to navigate the "Group of Death" as well as the USMNT did at the 2014 World Cup when they advanced out of the group in second place behind Germany but ahead of Ghana and Portugal.  For that to happen, Man City will need to take maximum points at home (three wins would mean nine points) while either winning one match or drawing two matches on the road.

The summer transfer window closes on Monday, September 1, 2014.  The business that Man City does in the last few days if the summer transfer window will go a long way to determining how they perform in the Champions League this season.  Due to running afoul of UEFA's Financial Fair Play rules, Man City was (essentially) forced to sell players in the summer transfer window than it purchased.  Make sure to check back after the summer transfer window closes for my full breakdown of all the moves that Man City made during the summer transfer window to help them chase the quadruple (Capitol One Cup, EPL, FA Cup, and UEFA Champions League) this season.

Man City Report - One Down, Three to Go

Going into the 2013-14 season Manchester City previously won 15 major trophies: three English First Division/Premier League titles (1936-37, 1967-68, & 2011-12), five FA Cups (1904, 1934, 1956, 1969, & 2011), two League Cups (1970 & 1976), four FA Community Shields (1937, 1968, 1972, & 2012), and one European Cup Winners' Cup (1970).  This season City had lofty aspirations of winning four trophies: UEFA Champions League, English (aka Barclays) Premier League, FA Cup, and Capital One (aka League) Cup.  To put those aspirations in perspective, no English team has ever won the three major domestic trophies in the same season so City set a very ambitious goal.  Given that City beat Sunderland 3-1 in the 2014 Capital One Cup Final yesterday, I thought it was a good time to take stock of City's chances to hoist four trophies this season.

With the Capital One Cup trophy in had, let's move on to the FA Cup.  City are looking to win the title this season after they lost to Wigan in the final last season.  City knocked off Chelsea at home in the 5th round of the FA Cup less than two weeks after they lost to Chelsea at home in the EPL for their first home loss of the 2013-14 EPL season.  Ironically City now host Wigan in the quarterfinals of the FA Cup.  The other three quarterfinal matches are: Arsenal against Everton, Hull City against Sunderland, and Sheffield United against Charlton Athletic.  If City defeat Wigan, clearly the winner of the Arsenal v. Everton match posses the biggest threat.  Given that semifinal match ups will not be drawn until the field is winnowed down to four clubs, there is a chance City could avoid Arsenal or Everton altogether, which would drastically improve their chances of winning the FA Cup.

Player Rankings

1. Yaya Toure (M, LR 1) 2. Sergio Aguero (F, LR 3) 3. Vincent Kompany (D, LR 2) 4. David Silva (M, LR 4) 5. Alvaro Negredo (F, LR 5)  6. Samir Nasri (M, LR 11) 7. Jesus Navas (M, LR 6)  8. Edin Dzeko (F, LR 10) 9. Fernandinho (M, LR 7) 10. Pablo Zabaleta (D, LR 8) 11. Joe Hart (GK, LR 9) 12. Stevan Jovetic (F, LR 14) 13. Aleksandar Kolarov (D, LR 13) 14. James Milner (M, LR 15) 15. Gael Clichy (D, LR 12) 16. Matija Nastasic (D, LR 16) 17. Javi Garcia (M, LR 17) 18. Joleon Lescott (D, LR 18) 19. Micah Richards (D, LR 19) 20. Jack Rodwell (M, LR 20) 21. Martin Demichelis (D, LR 21) 22. Dedryck Boyata (D, LR 22) 23. Alex Nimely (F, LR 24) 24. Costel Pantilimon (GK, LR 23) 25. Erik Johansen (GK, LR 25) 26. Marcos Lopes (M, LR 26) 27. Richard Wright (GK, LR 27)

After City lost to Chelsea in the EPL at the beginning of February, they tied Norwich 0-0 on the road (beat them 7-0 at home in the corresponding fixture earlier this season).  As if a road tie against Norwich was not bad enough, I was forced to watch a grainy/choppy version of the match at Starbucks.  The connective shutouts that Chelsea and Norwich dealt City marked the first time that City failed to score in consecutive games in the EPL since January 1, 2012.  Following two lackluster performances in the EPL, City barely beat Stoke 1-0 at home thanks to a goal by midfielder Yaya Toure.  Keep in mind City had the best home record in the EPL while Stoke had the worst road record in the league.  All told that means City earned merely four points over their last three Premier League matches.  Despite their dip in form in the EPL, City still controls their own destiny even though they are currently in 4th place in the table behind Chelsea, Liverpool, and Arsenal because City have two games in hand.  Obviously every match will matter down the stretch but they have a huge four match stretch starting at the end of March: away against Manchester United (03/25), away against Arsenal (03/29), home against Southampton (04/05), and away against Liverpool (04/13).  Taking all 12 points (4 wins) would be a dream scenario but 10 points (3 wins and 1 draw) is probably the minimum if City want to win the EPL.

City finished second in their Champions League qualification group to qualify for the knockout round of the Champions League for the first time in club history.  The downside of City finishing second in their group was they they drew a club that won their group.  Unfortunately that meant City drew Barcelona, which marked the first time the clubs played each other in a competitive match.  City hosted Barcelona in the first leg of their home-and-home series, which City lost 2-0 thanks in large part to Martin Demichelis getting sent off when he took down Lionel Messi just outside the penalty box. The referee ruled that the offense occurred in the box and Messi converted the penalty kick.  Dani Alves scored in stoppage time to put City in a borderline insurmountable hole.  If City are able to overturn their 2-0 deficit, it will be without the services of their manager Manuel Pellegrini since UEFA handed him a two match ban for his seething comments about the referee's performance in City's 2-0 loss to Barcelona.

When clubs like City are spread across so many competitions, they almost need to have two full starting lineups.  City have that covered at goalkeeper (Hart & Pantilimon), right back (Zabaleta & Richards), left back (Clichy & Kolarov), winger (Silva, Navas, & Nasari), and aerial striker (Negrado & Dzeko).  Unfortunately City do not have that covered at the important positions of central defender, central midfield, and attacking midfielder/withdrawn striker.  News broke recently that City will purchase center midfielder Bruno Zuculini from Racing Club for merely £3 million.  Sadly City will not be able to use Zuculini's services until next season, which might be too late if City actually wants to win more than one trophy this season.  With the Capital One Cup already in the trophy case I would give City a 85% chance of winning the FA Cup, 51% chance of winning the EPL, and 25% chance of winning the Champions League.

Man City Report - Champions League & New York FC

It is hard to complain about Manchester City handing Bayern their first loss in the Champions League in their last 10 matches but apparently City manager Manuel Pellegrini did not understand the tie breaker rules for the Champions League group stages because when teams are level on points it is their head-to-head records not goal difference that decides the group winner.  Since Bayern won 3-1 at The Etihad that meant City had to score at least three goals on the road to jump Bayern to win the group.

Thomas Müller and Mario Götze scored twice in the first half to give Bayern a 2-0 lead and put them up 5-1 on aggregate.  City could have packed it in especially given that Pellegrini named an undermanned first team of  Joe Hart (GK), Micah Richards (RB), Martín Demichelis (CB), Joleon Lescott (CB), Aleksandar Kolarov (LB), Jesus Navas (W), Javi Garcia (CM), Fernandinho (CM), James Milner (W), David Silva (S), and Edin Dzeko (S) with Jack Rodwell (CM), Vincent Kompany (CB), Dedryck Boyata (CB), Sergio Agüero (S), and Costel Pantilimon (GK) on the bench to save their legs for their home match against league leaders Arsenal at The Etihad on the weekend.

In what is becoming a recurring nightmare for Richards, he was injured early in the first half with City down 2-0 so Pellegrini inserted Pablo Zabaleta in place of Richards.  City amazingly fought back with goals from Silva (28th minute), Kolarov (p.k. in 59th minute), and Milner (62nd minute) to take a 3-2 lead.  At that point City only needed to score one more goal to win the group stage, which it looks like Pellegrini understood when he inserted Negredo in place of Silva in the 73rd minute.  That understanding became murky when Pellegrini inserted Rodwell for Dzeko with a few minutes to play to "protect" a 3-2 lead not realizing that a 4-2 victory not a 5-2 victory is what City needed to win their group.  Pellegrini's and Milner's post-game commented confirmed they did not understand the Champions League group stage tie-breaker, which is inexcusable.

Sure City ended Bayern's 27-match undefeated run but they still finished second in the group.  If City would have won the group they could have been drawn against Bayer Leverkusen, Galatasaray, Milan, Olympiacos, Schalke, or Zenit St. Peterburg.  Since City did not win the group, they could have been drawn against Atlético Madrid, Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund, Paris Saint-Germain, or Real Madrid.  Unfortunately as the graphic to the right shows, City was drawn against Barcelona so their odds of progression from the Round of 16 to the Round of 8 are low.
 

In other City related news, New York City FC has their first manager in place officially naming Jason Kreis as their manager despite the fact that New York City FC does not join the MLS until the 2015 season.  Kreis lead real Salt Lake to six consecutive playoff appearances including an MLS Cup in 2009 and a runner up this past season.  Kreis has long been rumored to be the first manager in the club's history so apparently Kreis will embark on a one-year apprenticeship of sorts under Pellegrini...pretty nice way to earn a living for a year right?

Besides the handling of the goal keeper situation and understand the rules of the Champions League group stage tie-breaker rules, I've generally agreed with how Pellegrini has handled City so far in his first season with the club.

 

City faces Leister in the Capital One Cup quarterfinal match tomorrow.  If City and United win, hopefully they will get opposite semi-final draws to set-up a Manchester Derby at Wembley for the Capital One Cup.  This weekend City heads on the road to face Fulham as the EPL kicks into high-gear.  I will have full coverage of all the action in this space over the next month.

English Premier League 2010-11 Season Review

As I said last week in my running diary of Manchester City's FA Cup win over Stoke City, I am a Man City fan so this will be a another soccer post in as many weeks. Don't worry though because this post involves at least one Cheesehead sports connection to justify posting it on my Cheesehead sports related blog.

For those of you that don't know, soccer has relegation and promotion. In England that means that every season three teams are relegated from the Premier League (top division in England) to the Championship (second division in England) while three teams from the from the Championship are promoted to the Premier League. Unlike almost all other professional sports, relegation and promotion means that the last day of the season in the Premier League is one of the most fascinating days on the entire sports calendar.

With that background on relegation and promotion out of the way, now for the Cheesehead sports connection to justify posting this on the blog. A few years ago a Cheesehead soccer player (grew up in Green Bay, WI) and United States Men's National Team player Jay DeMerit scored the first goal for Watford on a header to help Watford defeat Leeds United 3-0 and gain promotion from the Championship to the Premier League. Some media outlets claim that DeMerit scored a £30 million goal thanks to the television rights alone for playing in the Premier League as opposed to the Championship.

The conventional wisdom is that 40 points (teams get 3 points for a win and 1 point for a tie) out of 38 matches will keep you in the Premier League. That conventional wisdom held true for the 2010-11 Premier League season because the three Premier League clubs relegated: Birmingham (39 points), Blackpool (39 points), and West Ham United (33 points) amassed less than 40 points while the three clubs that narrowly avoided relegation: Blackburn Rovers (43 points), Wigan Athletic (42 points), and Wolverhampton Wanderers (40 points) all earned at least 40 points.

The other conventional wisdom in the Premier League is that 70 points will get you automatic qualification for the UEFA Champions League from the Premier League. The Premier League puts three automatic qualifiers in the UEFA Champions League with the fourth team having to go through the qualification process. The conventional wisdom held because Manchester United (80 points), Chelsea (71 points), and Manchester City (71 points) all earned at least 70 points and automatically qualified while Arsenal (68 points) has to qualify for the knock-out stages of the UEFA Champions League because they finished 4th in the Premier League.

In somewhat related news, my buddy Gaber's favorite team Arsenal finished 4th while my buddy Uncle Patty's team Newcastle finished 12th. Both Arsenal and Newcastle have to be relatively pleased with their position since Arsenal still has a chance to qualify for the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League and Newcastle was just promoted back to the Premier League this season.

As you can see the magic numbers of 40 points and 70 points held for another year in the Premier League. All of that is great but selfishly the best part for me as a Man City fan is that they qualified for the UEFA Champions League for the first time in club history. That means that Man City will continue to invest in big name players to try and improve on their best Premier League finish ever. The next goal for Man City is to win the Premier League and the UEFA Champions League for the first time in club history.

If there is one takeaway from the post, relegation and promotion is simultaneously the most nerve wracking and exhilarating thing in sports. There is no real feasible way to implement this in the the major professional sports in North America because most major professional teams own the rights to the players that make up the minor league teams (MLB, NBA, and NHL) or do not have any actual minor league teams besides a small practice squad (NFL). This should be the last soccer post for a while unless something Cheesehead soccer related happens. Please check back for more non-soccer related Cheesehead sports content on the blog.