Man City Report - UEFA Champions League Draw

Manchester City stubbed their toe to start the season losing 3-0 to Arsenal in the FA Community Shield, a match that is thankfully meaningless because it merely pits last season's FA Cup Champion (Arsenal) v. the English Premier League ("EPL") Champion (Man City) in a "showcase" match.  For how poorly the FA Community Shield went for Man City, they started their 2014-15 EPL campaign well with a 2-0 road win over Newcastle and followed that up with a 3-1 home win over Liverpool in their first home EPL match of the season.

I am working on a mega review of the summer transfer window for Man City but given that today the groups were drawn for the 2014-15 UEFA Champions League, I thought I would give my quick Man City centric thoughts on the draw.  By way of background, this is the fourth season in a row (and overall) that Man City is participating in the UEFA Champions League. Much like the World Cup draw, teams are split into four groups with some rules governing (e.g. clubs from the same country cannot be drawn into the same group) how the groups are drawn. 

In 2011-12 Man City drew Bayern Munich, Napoli and Villarreal in the group stage.  Although Man City played well in all six matches, they missed getting out of their group by one point.  In 2012-13 Man City drew Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid and Ajax in the group stage.   For how well Man City played in 2011-12 Champions League group stage, they played the exact opposite in 2012-13 Champions League group stage en route to finishing last in their group.

In 2013-14 Man City drew Bayern Munich, CSKA Moscow and Viktoria Plzeň in the group stage.  Third times a charm because Man City made it out of their group in the Champions League for the first time ever.  Unfortunately since Man City finished second in their group behind Bayern Munich and they drew Barcelona in the knockout stages.  Man City played decent in their home-and-home against Barcelona but ultimately Barcelona went through ahead of Man City.

Given that Man City won two of the last three EPL tittles, expectations are much higher for the club now than just a few seasons ago.  Given their domestic league success, European success is the next box that they need to check if they want to be considered one of the elite clubs in the world that starts with the 2014-15 UEFA Champions League.

Going into the group stage selections for 2014-15 UEFA Champions League, I decided to develop some power rankings for each group.  Just to make these rankings crystal clear, the first team in each pot is the team I would least like the Man City to be drawn against, so on and so forth.  It is sort of academic for Pot Two since the Man City cannot be drawn with any of those teams but I thought it would be a nice way for me to rank the teams as they are currently constituted.  Here are the four pots with my rankings (best to worst) within each pot:

Pot One: Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Chelsea, Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, Benfica, and Porto

Pot Two: Manchester City, Paris St-Germain, Borussia Dortmund, Juventus, Zenit St Petersburg, Schalke, Shakhtar Donetsk, and Basel

Pot Three: Bayer Leverkusen, Liverpool, Ajax, CSKA Moscow, Athletic Bilbao, Sporting Lisbon, Galatasaray, and Olympiakos

Pot Four: Roma, Monaco, Anderlecht, APOEL Nicosia, BATE Borisov, Ludogorets Razgrad, Malmo, and Maribor.

This may seem redundant but that means going into the draw I thought the best possible result for Man City was Porto, Olympiakos, and Maribor while the worst possible result was Bayern Munich, Bayer Leverkusen, and Roma.  Technically that draw would not be possible because Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen are both German clubs but you get the point of the thought experiment.  Again groups matter because only the top two teams from each group qualify for the knock-out stage.  Here is the full list of the groups for the 2014-15 UEFA Champions League:

Group A: Atletico Madrid, Juventus, Olympiakos, Malmo

Group B: Real Madrid, Basel, Liverpool, Ludogorets

Group C: Benfica, Zenit, Bayer Leverkusen, AS Monaco

Group D: Arsenal, Borussia Dortmund, Galatasaray, Anderlecht

Group E: Bayern Munich, Manchester City, CSKA Moscow, Roma

Group F: FC Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, Ajax, APOEL Nicosia

Group G: Chelsea, Schalke, Sporting Lisbon, Maribor

Group H: FC Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk, Athletic Bilbao, BATE Borisov

Well as luck would have it, Man City got almost the worst draw possible.  For the second year in a row, Man City are in the same group as Bayern Munich and CSKA Moscow.  Instead of having Viktoria Plzeň as the third member of their group this year, unfortunately they drew Roma.

I don't want to sound too defeatist but given Bayern's quality that essentially relegates Man City to playing for second place in the group.  CSKA Moscow is always a tough draw and Roma was placed in Pot Four because they have a lower co-efficient according to UEFA based on their most recent results in European competition but are always a plucky team.  Of all the clubs in Pot Four UEFA coefficient aside, I honestly think Roma should at least be in Pot Three.

In the World Cup, teams play each other once.  In the Champions League, every team plays each other twice: once at home and once on the road for six matches total.  Hopefully Man City will be able to navigate the "Group of Death" as well as the USMNT did at the 2014 World Cup when they advanced out of the group in second place behind Germany but ahead of Ghana and Portugal.  For that to happen, Man City will need to take maximum points at home (three wins would mean nine points) while either winning one match or drawing two matches on the road.

The summer transfer window closes on Monday, September 1, 2014.  The business that Man City does in the last few days if the summer transfer window will go a long way to determining how they perform in the Champions League this season.  Due to running afoul of UEFA's Financial Fair Play rules, Man City was (essentially) forced to sell players in the summer transfer window than it purchased.  Make sure to check back after the summer transfer window closes for my full breakdown of all the moves that Man City made during the summer transfer window to help them chase the quadruple (Capitol One Cup, EPL, FA Cup, and UEFA Champions League) this season.

Man City Report - One Down, Three to Go

Going into the 2013-14 season Manchester City previously won 15 major trophies: three English First Division/Premier League titles (1936-37, 1967-68, & 2011-12), five FA Cups (1904, 1934, 1956, 1969, & 2011), two League Cups (1970 & 1976), four FA Community Shields (1937, 1968, 1972, & 2012), and one European Cup Winners' Cup (1970).  This season City had lofty aspirations of winning four trophies: UEFA Champions League, English (aka Barclays) Premier League, FA Cup, and Capital One (aka League) Cup.  To put those aspirations in perspective, no English team has ever won the three major domestic trophies in the same season so City set a very ambitious goal.  Given that City beat Sunderland 3-1 in the 2014 Capital One Cup Final yesterday, I thought it was a good time to take stock of City's chances to hoist four trophies this season.

With the Capital One Cup trophy in had, let's move on to the FA Cup.  City are looking to win the title this season after they lost to Wigan in the final last season.  City knocked off Chelsea at home in the 5th round of the FA Cup less than two weeks after they lost to Chelsea at home in the EPL for their first home loss of the 2013-14 EPL season.  Ironically City now host Wigan in the quarterfinals of the FA Cup.  The other three quarterfinal matches are: Arsenal against Everton, Hull City against Sunderland, and Sheffield United against Charlton Athletic.  If City defeat Wigan, clearly the winner of the Arsenal v. Everton match posses the biggest threat.  Given that semifinal match ups will not be drawn until the field is winnowed down to four clubs, there is a chance City could avoid Arsenal or Everton altogether, which would drastically improve their chances of winning the FA Cup.

Player Rankings

1. Yaya Toure (M, LR 1) 2. Sergio Aguero (F, LR 3) 3. Vincent Kompany (D, LR 2) 4. David Silva (M, LR 4) 5. Alvaro Negredo (F, LR 5)  6. Samir Nasri (M, LR 11) 7. Jesus Navas (M, LR 6)  8. Edin Dzeko (F, LR 10) 9. Fernandinho (M, LR 7) 10. Pablo Zabaleta (D, LR 8) 11. Joe Hart (GK, LR 9) 12. Stevan Jovetic (F, LR 14) 13. Aleksandar Kolarov (D, LR 13) 14. James Milner (M, LR 15) 15. Gael Clichy (D, LR 12) 16. Matija Nastasic (D, LR 16) 17. Javi Garcia (M, LR 17) 18. Joleon Lescott (D, LR 18) 19. Micah Richards (D, LR 19) 20. Jack Rodwell (M, LR 20) 21. Martin Demichelis (D, LR 21) 22. Dedryck Boyata (D, LR 22) 23. Alex Nimely (F, LR 24) 24. Costel Pantilimon (GK, LR 23) 25. Erik Johansen (GK, LR 25) 26. Marcos Lopes (M, LR 26) 27. Richard Wright (GK, LR 27)

After City lost to Chelsea in the EPL at the beginning of February, they tied Norwich 0-0 on the road (beat them 7-0 at home in the corresponding fixture earlier this season).  As if a road tie against Norwich was not bad enough, I was forced to watch a grainy/choppy version of the match at Starbucks.  The connective shutouts that Chelsea and Norwich dealt City marked the first time that City failed to score in consecutive games in the EPL since January 1, 2012.  Following two lackluster performances in the EPL, City barely beat Stoke 1-0 at home thanks to a goal by midfielder Yaya Toure.  Keep in mind City had the best home record in the EPL while Stoke had the worst road record in the league.  All told that means City earned merely four points over their last three Premier League matches.  Despite their dip in form in the EPL, City still controls their own destiny even though they are currently in 4th place in the table behind Chelsea, Liverpool, and Arsenal because City have two games in hand.  Obviously every match will matter down the stretch but they have a huge four match stretch starting at the end of March: away against Manchester United (03/25), away against Arsenal (03/29), home against Southampton (04/05), and away against Liverpool (04/13).  Taking all 12 points (4 wins) would be a dream scenario but 10 points (3 wins and 1 draw) is probably the minimum if City want to win the EPL.

City finished second in their Champions League qualification group to qualify for the knockout round of the Champions League for the first time in club history.  The downside of City finishing second in their group was they they drew a club that won their group.  Unfortunately that meant City drew Barcelona, which marked the first time the clubs played each other in a competitive match.  City hosted Barcelona in the first leg of their home-and-home series, which City lost 2-0 thanks in large part to Martin Demichelis getting sent off when he took down Lionel Messi just outside the penalty box. The referee ruled that the offense occurred in the box and Messi converted the penalty kick.  Dani Alves scored in stoppage time to put City in a borderline insurmountable hole.  If City are able to overturn their 2-0 deficit, it will be without the services of their manager Manuel Pellegrini since UEFA handed him a two match ban for his seething comments about the referee's performance in City's 2-0 loss to Barcelona.

When clubs like City are spread across so many competitions, they almost need to have two full starting lineups.  City have that covered at goalkeeper (Hart & Pantilimon), right back (Zabaleta & Richards), left back (Clichy & Kolarov), winger (Silva, Navas, & Nasari), and aerial striker (Negrado & Dzeko).  Unfortunately City do not have that covered at the important positions of central defender, central midfield, and attacking midfielder/withdrawn striker.  News broke recently that City will purchase center midfielder Bruno Zuculini from Racing Club for merely £3 million.  Sadly City will not be able to use Zuculini's services until next season, which might be too late if City actually wants to win more than one trophy this season.  With the Capital One Cup already in the trophy case I would give City a 85% chance of winning the FA Cup, 51% chance of winning the EPL, and 25% chance of winning the Champions League.