Man City Report - On Fire Thanks to Six Wins in Six Matches

Following the third international break of the season, Man City had six matches from late November through early December: four EPL matches and two UEFA Champions League group stage matches.  Man City won two of the last three EPL titles so the next logical step for them to become one of the most successful clubs in the world is to win the Champions League, which is why the sixth of those six matches was the most important on the road against Roma in the Champions League.

The international break did some good for Man City because in the first of their six matches following the international break they beat Swansea 2-1 at home in the EPL.  Man City's Champions League chances were kept on life support thanks to a hat trick by Sergio Aguero to beat Bayern Munich 3-2 at home.  That qualify form carried over into the EPL as Man City trounced Southampton 3-0 on the road to jump leapfrog them into second place in the EPL standings.  Man City followed that up with another road victory in the EPL, this time 4-1 over Sunderland.  Man City returned home for a hard fought 1-0 victory over Everton in the EPL just hours after Chelsea lost to Newcastle to narrow Chelsea's lead in the table to just three points.  Man City not only won their sixth match in a row with a 2-0 road win over Roma in the Champions League but thanks to a CSKA loss to Bayern Munich, Man City improbably qualified for the knockout stages of the Champions League thanks to taking 6 points in their last two Champions League matches after they earned just two points in their first four matches.

Here are my updated player rankings for Man City following their best six match stretch (so far) of the 2014-15 season:

6) Samir Nasri (M, LR 7): If Man City are somehow able to win the Champions League this year, there is no doubt that Nasri's howler that put Man City up 1-0 over Roma will go down as one of the more important goals in club history.  Last year I was bummed that Man City finished second in their group to Bayern Munich because it mean that they faced Barcelona in the knockout stage.  This year, I am just happy to see Man City progress to the knockout stage.  Given Champions League knockout stage rules, since Man City finished second in their group they will face one of the eight group winners but cannot face the team from their group (Bayern Munich) or another club from their country (Chelsea), which leaves six other teams that Man City could face in the knockout stage.  Here are my rankings of the match-ups from best to worst for Man City: FC Porto, AS Monaco, Athletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Barcelona, and Real Madrid. It is all gravy in the Champions League at this point given how dire things looked just two matches ago in the group stages.  As long as Man City do NOT have to face Real Madrid or Barcelona in the knockout stages, I like their chances to move onto the quarterfinals and one step closer to a Champions League title.

2014-15 Player Rankings 3.0

1. Sergio Aguero (F, LR 1) 2. Vincent Kompany (D, LR 2) 3. Yaya Toure (M, LR 3) 4. David Silva (M, LR 4) 5. Pablo Zabaleta (D, LR 5) 6. Samir Nasri (M, LR 7) 7. Edin Dzeko (F, LR 6) 8. Joe Hart (GK, LR 8) 9. James Milner (M, LR 9) 10. Jesus Navas (M, LR 10) 11. Eliaquim Mangala (D, LR 15) 12. Stevan Jovetic (F, LR 13) 13. Aleksandar Kolarov (D, LR 11) 14. Fernandinho (M, LR 12) 15. Fernando (M, LR 14) 16. Gael Clichy (D, LR 16) 17. Martin Demichelis (D, LR 17) 18. Bacary Sagna (D, LR 18) 19. Willy Caballero (GK, LR 19) 20. José Ángel Pozo (M, LR 23) 21. Dedryck Boyata (D, LR 20) 22. Scott Sinclair (M, LR 22) 23. Matija Nastasic (D, LR 21) 24. Sinan Bytyqi (M, LR 24) 25. Frank Lampard (M, LR 25) 26. Richard Wright (GK, LR 26)

18) Bacary Sagna (D, LR 18): Given that Gareth Barry and Javi Garcia were sold this summer, I really had to stretch to find a current member of Man City besides Frank Lampard that looks likely to play for Man City's MLS "Sister" club New York City FC.  Despite the fact that Sagna joined Man City on a free transfer from Arsenal this summer, Man City signed Sagna to a three-year, $235,000 a week contract.  That weekly contract is way too rich for a striker as a designated player, let alone a right back so I would be shocked if Sagna left for New York City FC till after his contract expires after the 2016-17 season.  This is really an elaborate ruse to recap New York City FC's expansion draft results couched under a description of a current Man City player so instead of trying to continue this ruse, let's just look at New York City FC's expansion draft results.  Subject to a number of rules, Orlando and New York City FC were each able to select 10 players in the expansion draft.  Here are the players that NYCFC selected: Ned Grabavoy (M, Salt Lake), Patrick Mullins (F, New England), Jason Hernandez (D, San Jose), Daniel Lovitz (M, Toronto), Tony Taylor (F, New England), Mehdi Ballouchy (M, Vancouver), George John (D, Dallas), Thomas McNamara (M, D.C. United), Sal Zizzo (M, Kansas City), and Chris Wingert (D, Salt Lake).  I will do my best to brush up on the list above because before today I had never heard of any of those guys besides Mullins and John.  I am the same guy that gets up at the crack of dawn on the weekends to catch EPL matches so I am not sure if that is more of an indictment on me or the MLS that I only know two of the ten MLS players selected by New York City FC in the MLS expansion draft.

20) José Ángel Pozo (M, LR 23): With Sergio Aguero out until at least the start of 2015 and possibly longer, the third striker available to Pellegrini is Pozos, which seems downright crazy given that Man City is one of the richest clubs in the world.  Some referred to Pozos as "Mini Messi", in the words of Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers R-E-L-A-X.  Sure Rodgers used relax differently than I am using it here but let's keep in mind that Pozos is only 18 years old while Messi is arguably the best club striker of all-time even though he is only 27 years old.  Before you get too excited, note the use of the word "club".  I know Messi has NOT won a World Cup with Argentina, which is why I said he is the most successful club striker.  If Messi were to somehow win a World Cup in 2018 in Russia or 2022 in Qatar, with all due respect to Pele, he will go down as the best striker of all-time.  Back to Pozos, the fact that he is the third option at striker with Aguero out is exactly the reason that I did NOT support Man City's decision to loan out striker Alvaro Negredo to help comply with UEFA Financial Fair Play Regulations.  Let's hope that Pozos can grow up fast or Aguero can recover from injury sooner rather expected, otherwise Man City's title chase could be over before the start of 2015 because of Man City's packed but relatively easy EPL slate for the rest of 2014: road against Leicester, home against Crystal Palace, road against West Brom, and home against Burnley.  That does NOT mean Man City should get complacent though because anything less than 12 points will be a disappointment.

Check back following Man City's match at home against Burnley for my thoughts on how Man City manager Manuel Pellegrini should approach the January transfer window.

Man City Report - 2014 Summer Transfer Window Review

There was a ton of roster turnover for Manchester City over the 2014 summer transfer window.  Sure most of the turnover was on the younger/developmental side of the roster but the current senior roster for Man City looks slightly different than the side that won the 2013-14 Capital One Cup & more importantly the Barclay's English Premier League.  Here is a look at all the business done by Man City over the 2014 summer transfer window:

Released/Free Transfers:

Players: midfielder Thomas Agyiri (released), winger Alex Henshall (free transfer), midfielder Kieran Kennedy (released), defender Joleon Lescott (free transfer), striker Alex Nimely (released), goalkeeper Costel Pantilimon (free transfer), defender George Swan (released), and defender Reece Wabara (released).
Analysis: The fact that Nimley was released was a mild surprise given that he is only 23 years old, which is too young to give up on a striker unless there are off the pitch issues we don't know about.  Besides that, the only real notable names that made any significant appearances for the senior side are Lescott and Pantilimon.  Man City purchased Lescott in the 2009 summer transfer window from Everton for $35 million in hopes that he would be one of their two central defender for the next decade.  Unfortunately Lescott's tenure in Man City was a bit uneven given his injury issues and lack of mobility.  I am sure that Lescott would have been a great central defender in the top tier of English football in the 1980's or 1990's because of his size but size alone does NOT make a successful central defender in the current EPL.  Pantilimon was briefly the 1st string keeper last season when Joe Hart struggle but Man City are on the cusp of making a commitment to Hart so hopefully Pantilimon can get 1st team action at Sunderland.  Given that absent injury he would have seen sparse first-team action for Man City over the next few seasons.

Loaned:

Players: midfielder Bismark Adjei-Boateng (Stromsgodset for 2014), striker Devante Cole (Barnsley through January 5, 2015), defender Jason Denayer (Celtic for the season), winger Godsway Donyoh (Falkenbergs FF for 2014), midfielder Adam Drury (St Mirren for the season), striker John Guidetti (Celtic for season), goalkeeper Eirik Holmen Johansen (Sandefjord through 2014), defender Greg Leigh (Crewe through 2014), midfielder Marcos Lopes (Lille for the season), goalkeeper Billy O'Brien (Hyde for the season), defender Ellis Plummer (St Mirren for the season), defender Karim Rekik (PSV Eindhoven for the season), winger Albert Rusnak (SC Cambuur through 2014), and midfielder Bruno Zuculini (Valencia CF for the season).
Analysis: The most notable name on the list is Devante Cole because he is the son of Andy Cole.  It is way too early to tell whether Devante will be anywhere as good as his father Andy though.  One thing is for sure though, Devante would be the 5th or 6th option for Man City up front right now so hopefully he will get more playing time at Barnsley.  Besides Cole, keep an eye on Zuculini because although he is only 21 years old, I could see him blossom into a quality box-to-box central midfielder with regular playing time elsewhere for the next couple seasons.

Loaned with "Option" to Sell

Players: striker Alvaro Negredo (Valencia for the season with $40 million purchase option) and defender Micah Richards (Fiorentina for the season with $2 million purchase option).
Analysis: Bummed to see Richards go, unfortunately his unlimited athletic promise was rarely on display given all of his injury issues.  Although Negredo is often injured, it is not the reason he was "loaned" to Valencia. The reason Negredo was loaned was that Man City is doing everything in their power to comply with the UEFA Financial Fair Play rules.  When healthy, there is no doubt that Negrado gives Man City a different striker than anyone else currently on the roster.  In fact, there were various points through the first half of last season that without Negrado that Man City would NOT have been able to stay within reach of the first place in the EPL.  Man City purchased Negrado from Sevilla for $27.5 million before the start of last season and could sell him for upwards of $40 million in their loan-to-buy deal with Valencia, which will help balance their books.  Mark my words, if Man City lose Aguero or Dzeko to injury for an extended period of time, they will struggle to stay at the top of the EPL table and thus will surely miss Negredo.

Sold:

Players: midfielder Gareth Barry (sold for $3 million to Everton), midfielder Javi Garcia (sold for $19 million to FC Zenit Saint Petersburg), midfielder Emyr Huws (sold for $4 million to Wigan), and midfielder Jack Rodwell (sold for $15 million to Sunderland).
Analysis: I was never a big Barry fan.  Sure Barry is a decent holding midfielder but he does not tackle that well and gives you very little going forward so I see him as just another guy.  Seems like Huws and Rodwell were not in Man City's long-term plans even though they are both relatively young so it is nice to see them get a chance for regular minutes elsewhere.  Given how well Garcia played in place of Fernandinho in central midfield along side Yaya Toure at the end of last season, I thought Garcia was in Man City's long-term plans but clearly I was wrong because Man City sold Garcia $19 million, which means they took a slight loss on him since they purchased him from Benfica for $24 million in the 2012 summer transfer window.  With such a strong roster, turnover is inevitable and none of the players sold would get regular first team action unless Man City suffer a number of injuries.

Purchased

Players: goalkeeper Willy Caballero ($11 million from Malaga), midfielder Fernando ($20 million from Porto), midfielder Frank Lampard (on loan from MLS club NYCFC), defender Eliaquim Mangala ($50 million from Porto), defender Bacary Sagna (free transfer from Arsenal), and midfielder Bruno Zuculini ($3.5 million from Racing Club).
Analysis: Man City was only allowed to spend $82 million due to their Financial Fair Play restrictions from UEFA, which meant that every dollar that Man City spent in the summer transfer window had to be spent wisely. Time will tell how much of an impact Caballero, Fernando, and Sagna will have because there are more talented players in front of them on the current roster in Joe Hart, Fernandinho, and Pablo Zabaleta. Man City was able to take Lampard on loan from their "sister" MLS expansion franchise New York City FC because they do NOT have their first MLS match till March of 2015.  It will be odd to see Lampard in a light blue jersey as opposed to a dark blue jersey given that he played for Chelsea from 2001 to 2014. With Zuculini out on loan that leaves Mangala.  It is only fitting that Mangala joins Man City as Lescott leaves the club because Mangala looks like a much younger and athletic version of Lescott.  Given how raw Mangala is right now, it will be interesting to see how long it will take the French international to get up to speed in the EPL after playing last season in the top league in Portugal.  Long-term I would be surprised if Mangala was as much of a bust as Lescott but in the short-term I see Mangala struggling to get regular first team appearances, which is not what you would expect from a player that commanded such an expensive transfer fee.

Contract Extensions Signed

Players: striker Sergio Agüero (5 years), striker Edin Dzeko (4 years), defender Aleksandar Kolarov (3 years), defender Vincent Kompany (5 years), winger Samir Nasri (5 years), and winger David Silva (5 years).
Analysis: The players just listed are some of the most important players on the current senior roster and the core that helped Man City win two EPL titles in the last three seasons, which makes each extension look good in a vacuum but the weekly wage of each player's extension was not disclosed so I cannot comment on their dollar amounts.  I can comment on the length of their contract extensions, which is my only nitpick.  Besides Dzeko and Kolarov, the lengths of the rest of the contract extensions were five years so Man City did not stagger their lengths.  That means that the core of the roster could go through a forced turnover at the same time when those contracts are due to run out when all the players will be in their early 30's so their transfer value will be fairly low.  Given that fact, I would have signed Nasri and possibly Silva to shorter deals.

Man City's roster is now set till 2015 so it will be interesting to see how the players mesh with each other given that Man City will have a ton of matches spread over the Capital One Cup, Champions League, FA Cup, and the EPL in the last four months of 2014.  Make sure to check back during the second international break for my initial rankings of Man City's roster.

Man City Report - 2013-14 Initial Roster Finalized

As I said in my initial post about the 2013-14 campaign for Man City, there was a fair amount of turnover at the club with some big names leaving (manager Roberto Mancini and forward Carlos Tevez) and some even bigger names joining (midfielder Fernandinho, forward Stevan Jovetic, midfielder Jesus Navas, and forward Alvaro Negredo).

Just to tie up loose ends, let's look at the rest of the business done by Man City between my last post and the close of the summer transfer window:
- Loaned: midfielder Gareth Barry to Everton (source), forward Harry Bunn to Sheffield United (source), midfielder Albert Rusnak to Oldham (source), and midfielder Scott Sinclair to West Brom (source).
- Sold: midfielder Abdul Razak to Anzhi Makhachkala (source) and midfielder Denis Suarez to Barcelona (source).
- Bought: defender Martin Demichelis from Atletico Madrid (source).

With all the transfer business in the books till 2014, Man City manager Manuel Pellegrini can turn his attention to his current squad.  Feel free to comment if you disagree with my rankings or thoughts on the players highlighted below:

Initial Player Rankings

1. Yaya Toure (M) 2. David Silva (M) 3. Sergio Aguero (F) 4. Vincent Kompany (D) 5. Fernandinho (M) 6. Matija Nastasic (D) 7. Alvaro Negredo (F) 8. Gael Clichy (D) 9. Edin Dzeko (F) 10. Jesus Navas (M) 11. Joe Hart (GK) 12. Pablo Zabaleta (D) 13. Samir Nasri (M) 14. Joleon Lescott (D) 15. James Milner (M) 16. Stevan Jovetic (F) 17. Aleksandar Kolarov (D) 18. Javi Garcia (M) 19. Micah Richards (D)  20. Jack Rodwell (M) 21. Dedryck Boyata 22. Martin Demichelis (D) 23. Costel Pantilimon (GK) 24. John Guidetti (F) 25. Richard Wright (GK) 26. Alex Nimely (F) 27. Erik Johansen (GK)

1. Yaya Toure (M): With Fernandinho in the fold, some wondered if the Toure and Fernandinho could co-exist because they have such similar styles of play.  Three matches is not a large enough sample size to make any grand statements but so far so good.  How the two play together once Man City starts their Champions League campaign will go a long way towards determining whether their similar styles of play make them a long-term solution in central midfield for Man City.  It is going to be hard to knock Toure out of the top spot because he is one of best box-to-box midfielders in the world and he strikes a mean free kick too.  In case you missed it, check out Toure's fabulous free kick from the weekened to seal Man City's victory over Hull.

7. Alvaro Negredo (F): Of all of City's summer captures, Fernandinho is having more of an impact box-to-box but in the final third, Negredo has been doing his best Dzeko impression from last season with two goals in three appearances as a substitute so far this season.  Negredo's two goals ties him with Toure for the team lead in goals.  Based on early returns, Negrado looks to be the super-sub of the 2013-14 season that will get an occasional start in the EPL if Man City makes a deep run in the Champions League.  Last season Man City finished last in Group D, which was comprised of Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid, and Ajax.  This year Man City is again in Group D but looks to have a better draw: Bayern Munich (defending champion), CSKA Moscow and Viktoria Plzen.  Qualification for the knockout stage is no guarantee but the fact that players like Negredo currently can't crack the Starting XI speaks to the quality of Man City's current squad.

12. Pablo Zabaleta (D): I am an unabashed fan of all things Zabaleta but he did let the man he was supposed to be marking, Frazier Campbell, score two goals on headers en route to Cardiff City's shocking home victory over Man City.  Zabaleta took issue with man marking as opposed to zonal marking, which Man City employed under their previous manager Roberto Mancini.  Whether Man City employs man or zonal marking on corners going forward, they need to be more precise because conceding multiple goals off set-pieces is unacceptable.

22. Martin Demichelis (D): Joined Atletico Madrid this summer from Malaga on a free transfer in July and Atletico Madrid smartly flipped Demichelis for $6.5 million because despite being one of richest clubs in the world, Man City had very little depth at central defender with Kompany out  a month.  Unfortunately it looks like Demichelis will be out longer than Kompany because Demichelis suffered an injury in training that is supposed to keep him out four to six weeks.  Fortunately Nastasic returned from injury earlier than expected and Lescott is in decent form so hopefully that pair will holdup as Kompany and Demichelis heal.  That means that Atletico Madrid pocketed a cool $6.5 million for holding a free transfer for just over a month.  When I first started following Man City, $6.5 million would have been the entire summer transfer budget, now that is just an insurance deductible on central defender that might never see first team action.  Wow have things changed on the blue side of Manchester.

27. Erik Johansen (GK): If Man City had their druthers, they would have kept Wright instead of Johansen as their 3rd goalkeeper for their Champions League squad but UEFA rules preclude clubs from having more than four English players that were developed by another club.  With Hart, Lescott, Milner, and Rodwell developed by other clubs; Wright lost his Champions League roster spot to Johansen.  Since EPL rules are less stringent, Wright is the 3rd goalkeeper for Man City's EPL squad.

Man City springs back into action with two nervy road matches.  First, Man City faces Stoke on September 14th and then they open their Champions League campaign against Viktoria Plzen on September 17th.  How both of those matches go will have a big impact on my rankings.