On the eve of the 2011 season I thought I would take a look at the five most overpaid and five most underpaid Brewers in 2011.
Overpaid:
Honorable Mention: Manny Parra (LHP, $1.2 million), Carlos Gomez (CF, $1.5 million), and Takashi Saito (RHP, $1.75 million)
#5) Zack Greinke (RHP, $13.5 Million): If Greinke started his Brewer career healthy, there is no chance he makes the overpaid list. Unfortunately as I discussed in a recent chat with Gordon Edes of ESPN, the Brewers still have to pay Zack Greinke despite the fact that he is going to miss at least a month of the season, which translate into missing five or six starts. Greinke started 32, 33, and 33 games from 2008 to 2010. That means if Greinke misses 6 starts he will only make 27 starts at best in 2011. As a result Greinke will miss roughly 20% of his starts so that bumps him into the overpaid group.
#4) Corey Hart (RF, $6.833 Million): Much like Greinke, Hart is starting the 2011 season on the disabled list so that made him a prime candidate for the overpaid list as well. Even if Hart started the season healthy, he is still the 4th highest paid Brewer behind only Fielder, Greinke, and Wolf. The Brewers are already hiding Braun’s defensive deficiencies in left field. Hart does not have those same deficiencies so why not utilize his speed better in center or his length better at first base. In 2012 the Brewers need to move Hart to center field or first base if they want to get the proper bang for their buck.
#3) Randy Wolf (LHP, $9.5 million): Wolf had a horrendous start to 2010 after signing a three-year, $29.75 million contract. Fortunately Wolf buckled down towards the end of the season to help quiet the boo-birds. Unfortunately paying a middle of the rotation starter $9.5 million a year is way too much money, especially for a small market team like the Milwaukee Brewers.
#2) Yuniesky Betancourt (SS, $4.375 million): It is never a good thing when $1 million of your contract is being paid by a team that you played for (Seattle Mariners) before the team that traded you (Kansas City Royals) to the Brewers.
#1) LaTroy Hawkins (RHP, $4.25 Million): You know you are overpaid when your oft-injured reliever is making more than your left relief specialist (Stetter), primary set-up guy (Loe), and closer (Axford) combined. Hawkins was signed to stabilize the bullpen before the 2010 but Hawkins has spent more time on disabled list than pitching.
Underpaid:
Honorable Mention: Chris Narveson (LHP, $441,500), Mark Kotsay (1B/OF, $800,000), and Craig Counsell (INF, $1,400,000).
#5) Jonathan Lucroy (C, $424,000): Despite starting the season on the disable list, Lucroy is still a starting catcher that is making the league minimum at one of the hardest positions to field besides starting pitching. Lucroy looks like a franchise catcher in the making that is not even arbitration eligible till 2013 or a free agent till 2017. That salary flexibility at such a hard position to fill allows the Brewers to overpay at other positions (you're welcome overpaid list).
#4) John Axford (RHP, $442,500): Much like Lucroy, Axford plays a hard position to fill (closer) at the league minimum that is not arbitration eligible till 2013 or a free agent till 2017. Plus, Axford has the classiest stache in major league baseball so how could he possibly be overpaid?
#3) Casey McGehee (3B) - $468,000): With how great Ryan Braun has been offensively, Braun’s atrocious defense at 3rd base forced the Brewers to move Braun to left field. Luckily McGehee has flourished where Mat Gamel and a host of other “up and coming” prospects were supposed to play. With how well McGehee has played, the Brewers need to consider reaching a long-term deal with McGehee before the end of 2011 because in 2012 McGehee is salary arbitration eligible for the first time in his career meaning he will get a huge raise.
#2) Yovani Gallardo (RHP, $3.50 Million): Gallardo would be the #1 starter on most teams. With Greinke in the fold, albeit on the disabled list, Gallardo is one of the most dangerous #2 starting pitchers outside Philadelphia and San Francisco. Enjoy the low price while you can though because Gallardo is schedule to make $5.75 million in 2012, $8 million in 2013, and $11.5 million in 2014.
#1) Ryan Braun (LF, $4.287 million): As I pointed out in one of my first Sunday Funday Posts, Braun signed the most club friendly contract in major league history besides Evan Longoria. The only knock against Braun is that he plays arguably the easiest position in baseball to fill. That said, if Braun stayed at 3rd base he would have priced himself out of Milwaukee. With Braun signed through 2015 he is the face of the franchise. Furthermore, if Braun continues to perform well offensively though 2015 he has a chance to knock Paul Molitor off the Milwaukee Brewers Mount Rushmore.
Check back Sunday for my initial rankings of the 2011 Milwaukee Brewers.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
NFL Labor Update
Barring a major change of events the collective bargaining agreement between the NFL owners and players is set to expire at 11:59 EST on Thursday, March 3, 2011. If that happens, all NFL activity besides the 2011 NFL Draft would stop until a new agreement is reached.
Many NFL fans wonder how we got here. In the simplest terms, the NFL owners and players are fighting about how to split revenue. The NFL reportedly took in $9 billion in revenue in 2010. Under the current agreement, the NFL owners take roughly $1 billion of that revenue off the top and then spend 60% of the remaining revenue on the players. As employers are normally prone to think, the NFL owners think they are paying the players too much.
Besides how to split revenue here are the other main issues that the NFL owners and players are fighting about:
- Expanding the NFL regular season by two games to 18 regular season games
- Implementing a rookie wage scale
- Extending health care benefits for retired players
The owners will argue that since 2006 players costs have grown by 11% a year while revenues have only grown by 5.5%. The owners will point to the financial disclosures by the Green Bay Packers (only publicly owned team in the NFL so they are required to release certain financial information) that shows that the Packers' profits have decreased from $34 million to $10 million in four years.
The NFL players will counter that it is not really millionaires fighting with billionaires because the average NFL career only lasts 3.4 years. Furthermore, players like Aaron Rodgers have already earned tons of money but it is the borderline NFL players that can't afford to lose money and benefits. The players will further assert that it is ironic that the NFL is focusing on player safety but also trying to increase the number of regular season games thus subjecting the players to more injuries.
I have a million thoughts about how this should play out v. how this will actually play out. Check back for more coverage on this issue as things unfold.
Many NFL fans wonder how we got here. In the simplest terms, the NFL owners and players are fighting about how to split revenue. The NFL reportedly took in $9 billion in revenue in 2010. Under the current agreement, the NFL owners take roughly $1 billion of that revenue off the top and then spend 60% of the remaining revenue on the players. As employers are normally prone to think, the NFL owners think they are paying the players too much.
Besides how to split revenue here are the other main issues that the NFL owners and players are fighting about:
- Expanding the NFL regular season by two games to 18 regular season games
- Implementing a rookie wage scale
- Extending health care benefits for retired players
The owners will argue that since 2006 players costs have grown by 11% a year while revenues have only grown by 5.5%. The owners will point to the financial disclosures by the Green Bay Packers (only publicly owned team in the NFL so they are required to release certain financial information) that shows that the Packers' profits have decreased from $34 million to $10 million in four years.
The NFL players will counter that it is not really millionaires fighting with billionaires because the average NFL career only lasts 3.4 years. Furthermore, players like Aaron Rodgers have already earned tons of money but it is the borderline NFL players that can't afford to lose money and benefits. The players will further assert that it is ironic that the NFL is focusing on player safety but also trying to increase the number of regular season games thus subjecting the players to more injuries.
I have a million thoughts about how this should play out v. how this will actually play out. Check back for more coverage on this issue as things unfold.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
2011 Milwaukee Brewers Spring Training Preview
The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers enter spring training with at least 55 players in contention for 25 roster spots. Lots of things can change between now and when the Brewers open their 2011 campaign on Thursday, March 31, 2011 against the Cincinnati Reds at the Great American Ballpark. Absent injury, 20 roster spots are virtually locked down leaving five available roster spots. Below you will find a quick analysis of the Brewers’ spring training roster along with my spring training predictions of which players will make the opening day roster.
Catcher:
- Guaranteed: Jonathan Lucroy
- Borderline: George Kottaras and Wil Nieves
- Long-shot: Anderson De La Rosa, Martin Maldonado, Shawn Riggans, and Mike Rivera
Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: Last year the Brewers entered camp with the carcass of Gregg Zaun as the starting catcher. Luckily this year the Brewers enter with Jonathan Lucroy as their starting catcher, a better younger catcher than Zaun. My prediction is that the Brewers keep Lucroy and Kottaras.
Infielders:
- Guaranteed: Yuniesky Betancourt (SS), Craig Counsell (INF), Prince Fielder (1B), Casey McGehee (3B), and Rickie Weeks (2B)
- Borderline: Erick Almonte (1B/SS), Luis Cruz (SS), and Mat Gamel (3B)
- Long-shot: Eric Farris (2B), Edwin Maysonet (2B/SS), and Zelous Wheeler (SS/3B)
Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: Every year Mat Gamel enters spring training as the “next big thing” to graduate from the farm system. Every year less than a week into spring training Gamel takes those expectations and shoves them right down the toilet adjacent to the training room where he spends most of his time. I am not letting Gamel suck me in this year so my prediction is that the Brewers only keep five infielders: Betancourt, Counsell, Fielder, McGehee, and Weeks.
Outfielders:
- Guaranteed: Ryan Braun (LF), Carlos Gomez (CF), Corey Hart (RF), and Mark Kotsay (1B/OF)
- Borderline: Brandon Boggs (CF/RF), Chris Dickerson (OF), and Jeremy Reed (CF)
- Long-shot: Caleb Gindl (OF) and Logan Schafer (CF)
Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: The outfield looks set with Braun in left, Gomez in center, and Hart in right. Kotsay wouldn’t have signed without guarantees of making the roster so barring a calamity by Gomez or Kotsay, it looks like there is one spot up for grabs between Boggs, Dickerson, and Reed. My prediction is that the Brewers keep: Boggs, Braun, Gomez, Hart, and Kotsay.
Starting Pitching:
- Guaranteed: Yovani Gallardo (R), Zack Greinke (R), Shaun Marcum (R), Chris Narveson (L), and Randy Wolf (L)
- Borderline: Mark Rogers (R)
- Long-shot: Marco Estrada (R), Amaury Rivas (R), Cody Scarpetta (R)
Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: What a difference a year makes? In 2010 the Brewers started spring training with a six horse race for five starting spots between: Dave Bush, Doug Davis, Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Jeff Suppan, and Randy Wolf. In 2011, barring injury, the starting rotation will be: Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Narverson, and Wolf. As a result my prediction is that the Brewers will keep Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Narverson, and Wolf.
Relief Pitching:
- Guaranteed: John Axford (R), Zach Braddock (L), LaTroy Hawkins (R), Kameron Loe (R), and Takashi Saito (R)
- Borderline: Sean Green (R), Manny Parra (L), and Mitch Stetter (L)
- Long-shot: Mark DiFelice (R), Tim Dillard (R), Pat Egan (R), Robert Hinton (R), Justin James (R), Brandon Kintzler (R), Mike McClendon (R), Roque Mercedes (R), Dan Merklinger (L), Wily Peralta (R), and Zack Segovia (R)
Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: With the money some guys are getting paid (Hawkins and Saito) they are guaranteed a bullpen spot if healthy. Besides that, the Brewers have three really young promising arms (Axford, Braddock, and Loe) that look to form the back end of their bullpen. The wildcards are Parra and Stetter because both have been so up and down. My prediction is that the Brewers keep eight relief pitchers: Axford, Braddock, Green, Hawkins, Loe, Parra, Saito, and Stetter.
Opening Day Lineup:
1. Rickie Weeks (2B)
2. Carlos Gomez (CF)
3. Ryan Braun (LF)
4. Prince Fielder (1B)
5. Casey McGehee (3B)
6. Corey Hart (RF)
7. Yuniesky Betancourt (SS)
8. Jonathan Lucroy (C)
9. Zack Greinke (R)
Starting Rotation:
1. Zack Greinke (R)
2. Yovani Gallardo (R)
3. Randy Wolf (L)
4. Shaun Marcum (R)
5. Chris Narveson (L)
Closer:
1. John Axford (R)
2. LaTroy Hawkins (R)
3. Kameron Loe (R)
Check back for more Brewers coverage throughout spring training.
Catcher:
- Guaranteed: Jonathan Lucroy
- Borderline: George Kottaras and Wil Nieves
- Long-shot: Anderson De La Rosa, Martin Maldonado, Shawn Riggans, and Mike Rivera
Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: Last year the Brewers entered camp with the carcass of Gregg Zaun as the starting catcher. Luckily this year the Brewers enter with Jonathan Lucroy as their starting catcher, a better younger catcher than Zaun. My prediction is that the Brewers keep Lucroy and Kottaras.
Infielders:
- Guaranteed: Yuniesky Betancourt (SS), Craig Counsell (INF), Prince Fielder (1B), Casey McGehee (3B), and Rickie Weeks (2B)
- Borderline: Erick Almonte (1B/SS), Luis Cruz (SS), and Mat Gamel (3B)
- Long-shot: Eric Farris (2B), Edwin Maysonet (2B/SS), and Zelous Wheeler (SS/3B)
Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: Every year Mat Gamel enters spring training as the “next big thing” to graduate from the farm system. Every year less than a week into spring training Gamel takes those expectations and shoves them right down the toilet adjacent to the training room where he spends most of his time. I am not letting Gamel suck me in this year so my prediction is that the Brewers only keep five infielders: Betancourt, Counsell, Fielder, McGehee, and Weeks.
Outfielders:
- Guaranteed: Ryan Braun (LF), Carlos Gomez (CF), Corey Hart (RF), and Mark Kotsay (1B/OF)
- Borderline: Brandon Boggs (CF/RF), Chris Dickerson (OF), and Jeremy Reed (CF)
- Long-shot: Caleb Gindl (OF) and Logan Schafer (CF)
Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: The outfield looks set with Braun in left, Gomez in center, and Hart in right. Kotsay wouldn’t have signed without guarantees of making the roster so barring a calamity by Gomez or Kotsay, it looks like there is one spot up for grabs between Boggs, Dickerson, and Reed. My prediction is that the Brewers keep: Boggs, Braun, Gomez, Hart, and Kotsay.
Starting Pitching:
- Guaranteed: Yovani Gallardo (R), Zack Greinke (R), Shaun Marcum (R), Chris Narveson (L), and Randy Wolf (L)
- Borderline: Mark Rogers (R)
- Long-shot: Marco Estrada (R), Amaury Rivas (R), Cody Scarpetta (R)
Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: What a difference a year makes? In 2010 the Brewers started spring training with a six horse race for five starting spots between: Dave Bush, Doug Davis, Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Jeff Suppan, and Randy Wolf. In 2011, barring injury, the starting rotation will be: Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Narverson, and Wolf. As a result my prediction is that the Brewers will keep Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Narverson, and Wolf.
Relief Pitching:
- Guaranteed: John Axford (R), Zach Braddock (L), LaTroy Hawkins (R), Kameron Loe (R), and Takashi Saito (R)
- Borderline: Sean Green (R), Manny Parra (L), and Mitch Stetter (L)
- Long-shot: Mark DiFelice (R), Tim Dillard (R), Pat Egan (R), Robert Hinton (R), Justin James (R), Brandon Kintzler (R), Mike McClendon (R), Roque Mercedes (R), Dan Merklinger (L), Wily Peralta (R), and Zack Segovia (R)
Cheesehead Sports Nut's Prediction: With the money some guys are getting paid (Hawkins and Saito) they are guaranteed a bullpen spot if healthy. Besides that, the Brewers have three really young promising arms (Axford, Braddock, and Loe) that look to form the back end of their bullpen. The wildcards are Parra and Stetter because both have been so up and down. My prediction is that the Brewers keep eight relief pitchers: Axford, Braddock, Green, Hawkins, Loe, Parra, Saito, and Stetter.
Opening Day Lineup:
1. Rickie Weeks (2B)
2. Carlos Gomez (CF)
3. Ryan Braun (LF)
4. Prince Fielder (1B)
5. Casey McGehee (3B)
6. Corey Hart (RF)
7. Yuniesky Betancourt (SS)
8. Jonathan Lucroy (C)
9. Zack Greinke (R)
Starting Rotation:
1. Zack Greinke (R)
2. Yovani Gallardo (R)
3. Randy Wolf (L)
4. Shaun Marcum (R)
5. Chris Narveson (L)
Closer:
1. John Axford (R)
2. LaTroy Hawkins (R)
3. Kameron Loe (R)
Check back for more Brewers coverage throughout spring training.
2011 NBA Trade Deadline Advice for John Hammond
I hope that you enjoyed the 2011 NBA All-Star Weekend where the only Milwaukee Bucks participant was point guard Brandon Jennings in the Rookie/Sophomore Game. As evidenced by the lack of Milwaukee Bucks representation in the 2011 NBA All-Star Weekend festivities, the 2010-11 Milwaukee Bucks' season is looking like a lost season. Will a John Salmons type trade jump-start the season? Probably not but like I said last year in my possible Milwaukee Bucks trade deadline deals post, Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond has shown that he is not afraid to make bold moves, which is why only three players remain from the roster that Hammond inherited in April of 2008: Andrew Bogut, Ersan Ilyasova, and Michael Redd.
Unfortunately for how well Hammond did wheeling-and-dealing through the end of last season, all of his moves since have been downright horrible. If you want digital evidence, I questioned each one of Hammond's off-season moves:
- Corey Maggette trade
- Drew Gooden and John Salmons signings
- Milwaukee Bucks' 2010 NBA Draft
As the 2011 NBA Trade Deadline (Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 2 pm CST) approaches, a quick look at the Milwaukee Bucks roster shows that they have very few assets to trade:
Virtually Untradeable:
- Corey Maggette (SF): Earns $9.6 million this year, $10.3 million next year, and $10.9 million in 2012-13. That is a ton of money to pay a bad chemistry guy.
- John Salmons (SG): Injuries claimed most of Salmons' season so far. The Bucks are on the hook for a ton of money to Salmons through at least the 2013-14 season. Hopefully Salmons can revert back to his 2009-10 form for the rest of his contract. Otherwise, the Bucks will have a ton of money committed to an injury prone shooting guard and the sad part is the last sentence was not even about Michael Redd.
- Drew Gooden (PF): Earns $5.76 million this year, $6.2 million next year, and $6.68 million a year for 2012-13 through 2014-15. Gooden has been injured all season so not even the worst general manager in the league (Minnesota's general manager David Kahn) would consider dealing for Gooden.
Expiring Contracts:
- Michael Redd (SG): Has torn multiple knee ligaments the last two seasons and will participate in his first practice of the season this week. If that is not bad enough, Redd is the 5th highest paid player in the NBA this year earning $18.3 million.
- Earl Boykins (PG): Signed a one-year, $1.35 million deal in the off-season. Boykins earns every cent on the court since he is usually six inches shorter than the guy he is guarding.
Favorable short-term deals:
- Jon Brockman (PF): Despite being a disappointment so far, Brockman is only owed $1 million a year through the 2012-13 season. With such a favorable contract, the Bucks would have to be offered a late first round or early second round pick to make it worth their while to trade Brockman.
- Keyon Dooling (PG): Earning only $2 million this year and $2.2 million next year makes Dooling the most valuable and realistic trade option on the roster.
- Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF): Is in the second year of a three-year, $6.96 million contract. I stand by my poor man's Dirk Nowitzki comparison for Ilyasova so there is no reason to trade Ilyasova.
- Carlos Delfino (SG/SF): Is in the second year of a three-year, $10.5 million contract with the third year of the contract only a team option. Delfino has struggle with symptoms from his concussion. Although Delfino could be a sharp shooter for a playoff bound team, his contact is too favorable for Hammond to move.
Cheap Rookie Contracts:
- Larry Sanders (PF): Sending Sanders to the NBDL for "more playing time" hurt any trade value he had. With Sanders on his rookie contract through 2014-15 the Bucks have a cheap asset that they need to hold onto.
- Chris Douglas-Roberts (SG): Is earning $850,000 this year with a $1.1 million option for the 2011-12 season. At such a cheap price, the Bucks have no reason to move CDR until the next trade deadline at the earliest.
- Luc Mbah a Moute (SF/PF): Continues to be a lock down defender with limited offensive skills in the last year of his rookie contract. As long as the asking price isn't too high there will always be a place for a player like Mbah a Moute on a Scott Skiles coached team.
Virtually Untouchable:
- Andrew Bogut (C): The Bucks built their franchise around Bogut so unless they could get a quality young player plus some draft picks, there is no way the Bucks can even entertain offers for Bogut. With Bogut's injury history there is no way a team would be willing to part a with quality young player and drafts picks though so let's just move on.
- Brandon Jennings (PG): Injuries have put a damper on Jennings' sophomore NBA season but since the Bucks have Jennings on his rookie deal through the 2013-14 NBA season there is no way the Bucks part ways with Jennings anytime soon.
As you can see, the Bucks have very few legitimate trade assets. There is virtually no way the Bucks would trade Bogut, Brockman, Delfino, Douglas-Roberts, Ilyasova, Jennings, Mbah a Moute, or Sanders because they are either on cheap contracts (Brockman, Delfino, Douglas-Roberts, Ilyasova, Mbah a Moute, and Sanders) or are a potential franchise player (Bogut and Jennings). All the other guys on the roster save for Boykins and Dooling are signed to very expensive contracts.
Despite having few trade assets, I did my best to work ESPN's Trade Machine to try and realistically improve the Milwaukee Bucks. As we all know, the Milwaukee Bucks have a hard time enticing marquee free agents to sign in Milwaukee so they will most likely have to acquire them via trades. With a core of Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut for the next handful of years, players should be happier to play in Milwaukee than they have been in a long time. Here are my 5 trade deadline deals that the Milwaukee Bucks should at least consider:
#5) The Milwaukee Bucks trade Corey Maggette (SF) to the L.A. Lakers for Ron Artest (SF), Matt Barnes (SF), and a future first round pick. Call this the whack-job-swap. All three players involved are head cases that have very little trade value. Artest is a loose cannon that is signed for a year longer at a little bit less per year than Maggette. Barnes has a $1.9 million player option for next year that he would decline because he would have no interest in playing in Milwaukee any longer than he has to. Oddly enough since Artest has lost a step, acquiring Maggette would help the Lakers on the offensive end while being a neutral trade defensively. If Artest can't get along with Bogut and Jennings then he can't get along with anyone. Odds are 1,000,000 to 1 that this trade happens...so your telling me there's a chance?
#4) The Milwaukee Bucks trade Earl Boykins (PG) and a second round draft in the 2011 NBA Draft to the Atlanta Hawks for Jordan Crawford (SG). If you clicked on the trade you will see that the Bucks are projected to lose 6 more games after the trade while the Hawks' projected record does not change. This is one of the reasons that I don't completely buy into John Hollinger's player efficiency rating (PER). How can swapping a 3rd-string point guard for a 3rd-string shooting guard have such an impact on wins and losses? Oh and why would the Atlanta Hawks even consider the trade? Boykins is a legitimate backup point guard that could provide some quality veteran minutes for the Hawks in the playoffs. Odds are 1,000 to 1 that the Atlanta Hawks would even consider this trade but I have to continue to show my hypothetical general manager love for Jordan Crawford despite the fact that Crawford is having a sub par rookie season.
#3) The Milwaukee Bucks trade Michael Redd (SG) and their first round draft pick in the 2011 NBA Draft to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Antawn Jameson (PF) and Ramon Sessions (PG). I guess the Cavs could justify the trade by saying they are bringing in a former Ohio State star while saving some money down the road. The Bucks essentially get a mulligan on letting Sessions go by re-acquiring him and pairing Andrew Bogut with a versatile power forward for the next year and change. If you take the odds of the two aforementioned trades and multiple them together, that is how much of a chance this trade has of coming fruition before the trade deadline. Basically I had to include one Michael Redd trade so why not send him home to the King's former palace?
#2) The Milwaukee Bucks trade Corey Maggette (SF) to the Dallas Mavericks for Caron Butler (SF). This deal is 100% about Mark Cuban being the owner of the Dallas Mavericks. Cuban loves to tinker with his roster similar to how I like to tinker with my Madden video game roster. The only difference is that one happens in the real world with real life consequences while the other happens at my buddy Sug's house merely for bragging rights amongst two video game nerds. I appreciate that Cuban would rather make a move and be wrong (i.e. signing Brendan Haywood to a silly extension) than sit on his hands. This might be the only way that the Bucks can move Corey Maggette before the 2012-13 season.
#1) The Milwaukee Bucks trade Keyon Dooling (PG) to ANY playoff-bound team for a 2nd round pick in the 2011 NBA Draft. With all the labor uncertainty facing the NBA, the financial landscape of the NBA could dramatically change in the next six months. Although the 2011 NBA Draft is supposed to involve very little top end talent, there looks to be quality depth at each position so second round picks become very valuable.
If you read this far I want to thank you very much for spending all that time reading my random thoughts on the 2010-11 Milwaukee Bucks and the potential trades that will most likely never happen before the 2011 NBA Trade Deadline. Please feel free to leave a comment or email me (cheeseheadsportsnut@gmail.com) your thoughts on these trades or any other trade ideas you might have as the 2011 NBA Trade Deadline approaches.
Unfortunately for how well Hammond did wheeling-and-dealing through the end of last season, all of his moves since have been downright horrible. If you want digital evidence, I questioned each one of Hammond's off-season moves:
- Corey Maggette trade
- Drew Gooden and John Salmons signings
- Milwaukee Bucks' 2010 NBA Draft
As the 2011 NBA Trade Deadline (Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 2 pm CST) approaches, a quick look at the Milwaukee Bucks roster shows that they have very few assets to trade:
Virtually Untradeable:
- Corey Maggette (SF): Earns $9.6 million this year, $10.3 million next year, and $10.9 million in 2012-13. That is a ton of money to pay a bad chemistry guy.
- John Salmons (SG): Injuries claimed most of Salmons' season so far. The Bucks are on the hook for a ton of money to Salmons through at least the 2013-14 season. Hopefully Salmons can revert back to his 2009-10 form for the rest of his contract. Otherwise, the Bucks will have a ton of money committed to an injury prone shooting guard and the sad part is the last sentence was not even about Michael Redd.
- Drew Gooden (PF): Earns $5.76 million this year, $6.2 million next year, and $6.68 million a year for 2012-13 through 2014-15. Gooden has been injured all season so not even the worst general manager in the league (Minnesota's general manager David Kahn) would consider dealing for Gooden.
Expiring Contracts:
- Michael Redd (SG): Has torn multiple knee ligaments the last two seasons and will participate in his first practice of the season this week. If that is not bad enough, Redd is the 5th highest paid player in the NBA this year earning $18.3 million.
- Earl Boykins (PG): Signed a one-year, $1.35 million deal in the off-season. Boykins earns every cent on the court since he is usually six inches shorter than the guy he is guarding.
Favorable short-term deals:
- Jon Brockman (PF): Despite being a disappointment so far, Brockman is only owed $1 million a year through the 2012-13 season. With such a favorable contract, the Bucks would have to be offered a late first round or early second round pick to make it worth their while to trade Brockman.
- Keyon Dooling (PG): Earning only $2 million this year and $2.2 million next year makes Dooling the most valuable and realistic trade option on the roster.
- Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF): Is in the second year of a three-year, $6.96 million contract. I stand by my poor man's Dirk Nowitzki comparison for Ilyasova so there is no reason to trade Ilyasova.
- Carlos Delfino (SG/SF): Is in the second year of a three-year, $10.5 million contract with the third year of the contract only a team option. Delfino has struggle with symptoms from his concussion. Although Delfino could be a sharp shooter for a playoff bound team, his contact is too favorable for Hammond to move.
Cheap Rookie Contracts:
- Larry Sanders (PF): Sending Sanders to the NBDL for "more playing time" hurt any trade value he had. With Sanders on his rookie contract through 2014-15 the Bucks have a cheap asset that they need to hold onto.
- Chris Douglas-Roberts (SG): Is earning $850,000 this year with a $1.1 million option for the 2011-12 season. At such a cheap price, the Bucks have no reason to move CDR until the next trade deadline at the earliest.
- Luc Mbah a Moute (SF/PF): Continues to be a lock down defender with limited offensive skills in the last year of his rookie contract. As long as the asking price isn't too high there will always be a place for a player like Mbah a Moute on a Scott Skiles coached team.
Virtually Untouchable:
- Andrew Bogut (C): The Bucks built their franchise around Bogut so unless they could get a quality young player plus some draft picks, there is no way the Bucks can even entertain offers for Bogut. With Bogut's injury history there is no way a team would be willing to part a with quality young player and drafts picks though so let's just move on.
- Brandon Jennings (PG): Injuries have put a damper on Jennings' sophomore NBA season but since the Bucks have Jennings on his rookie deal through the 2013-14 NBA season there is no way the Bucks part ways with Jennings anytime soon.
As you can see, the Bucks have very few legitimate trade assets. There is virtually no way the Bucks would trade Bogut, Brockman, Delfino, Douglas-Roberts, Ilyasova, Jennings, Mbah a Moute, or Sanders because they are either on cheap contracts (Brockman, Delfino, Douglas-Roberts, Ilyasova, Mbah a Moute, and Sanders) or are a potential franchise player (Bogut and Jennings). All the other guys on the roster save for Boykins and Dooling are signed to very expensive contracts.
Despite having few trade assets, I did my best to work ESPN's Trade Machine to try and realistically improve the Milwaukee Bucks. As we all know, the Milwaukee Bucks have a hard time enticing marquee free agents to sign in Milwaukee so they will most likely have to acquire them via trades. With a core of Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut for the next handful of years, players should be happier to play in Milwaukee than they have been in a long time. Here are my 5 trade deadline deals that the Milwaukee Bucks should at least consider:
#5) The Milwaukee Bucks trade Corey Maggette (SF) to the L.A. Lakers for Ron Artest (SF), Matt Barnes (SF), and a future first round pick. Call this the whack-job-swap. All three players involved are head cases that have very little trade value. Artest is a loose cannon that is signed for a year longer at a little bit less per year than Maggette. Barnes has a $1.9 million player option for next year that he would decline because he would have no interest in playing in Milwaukee any longer than he has to. Oddly enough since Artest has lost a step, acquiring Maggette would help the Lakers on the offensive end while being a neutral trade defensively. If Artest can't get along with Bogut and Jennings then he can't get along with anyone. Odds are 1,000,000 to 1 that this trade happens...so your telling me there's a chance?
#4) The Milwaukee Bucks trade Earl Boykins (PG) and a second round draft in the 2011 NBA Draft to the Atlanta Hawks for Jordan Crawford (SG). If you clicked on the trade you will see that the Bucks are projected to lose 6 more games after the trade while the Hawks' projected record does not change. This is one of the reasons that I don't completely buy into John Hollinger's player efficiency rating (PER). How can swapping a 3rd-string point guard for a 3rd-string shooting guard have such an impact on wins and losses? Oh and why would the Atlanta Hawks even consider the trade? Boykins is a legitimate backup point guard that could provide some quality veteran minutes for the Hawks in the playoffs. Odds are 1,000 to 1 that the Atlanta Hawks would even consider this trade but I have to continue to show my hypothetical general manager love for Jordan Crawford despite the fact that Crawford is having a sub par rookie season.
#3) The Milwaukee Bucks trade Michael Redd (SG) and their first round draft pick in the 2011 NBA Draft to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Antawn Jameson (PF) and Ramon Sessions (PG). I guess the Cavs could justify the trade by saying they are bringing in a former Ohio State star while saving some money down the road. The Bucks essentially get a mulligan on letting Sessions go by re-acquiring him and pairing Andrew Bogut with a versatile power forward for the next year and change. If you take the odds of the two aforementioned trades and multiple them together, that is how much of a chance this trade has of coming fruition before the trade deadline. Basically I had to include one Michael Redd trade so why not send him home to the King's former palace?
#2) The Milwaukee Bucks trade Corey Maggette (SF) to the Dallas Mavericks for Caron Butler (SF). This deal is 100% about Mark Cuban being the owner of the Dallas Mavericks. Cuban loves to tinker with his roster similar to how I like to tinker with my Madden video game roster. The only difference is that one happens in the real world with real life consequences while the other happens at my buddy Sug's house merely for bragging rights amongst two video game nerds. I appreciate that Cuban would rather make a move and be wrong (i.e. signing Brendan Haywood to a silly extension) than sit on his hands. This might be the only way that the Bucks can move Corey Maggette before the 2012-13 season.
#1) The Milwaukee Bucks trade Keyon Dooling (PG) to ANY playoff-bound team for a 2nd round pick in the 2011 NBA Draft. With all the labor uncertainty facing the NBA, the financial landscape of the NBA could dramatically change in the next six months. Although the 2011 NBA Draft is supposed to involve very little top end talent, there looks to be quality depth at each position so second round picks become very valuable.
If you read this far I want to thank you very much for spending all that time reading my random thoughts on the 2010-11 Milwaukee Bucks and the potential trades that will most likely never happen before the 2011 NBA Trade Deadline. Please feel free to leave a comment or email me (cheeseheadsportsnut@gmail.com) your thoughts on these trades or any other trade ideas you might have as the 2011 NBA Trade Deadline approaches.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Advice for Ted Thompson for Building the 2011 Green Bay Packers
Unless the NFL Owners and NFL Players come to a new agreement, the Collective Bargaining Agreement between both sides is set to expire on Friday, March 3, 2011 at 11:59 p.m. EST. That means that the Green Bay Packers lose their exclusive negotiating rights with their "potential" free agents at that time. In a bit of an oddity, at the exact minute the players are set to become a free agents, each team’s ability to sign those players expires as well.
Depending on what type of agreement the owners and the players reach, some of the players below might not have enough accrued service time to become free agents (i.e. James Jones) but to make things as simple as possible, players will only be considered under contract for 2011 if they actually signed a deal with the Packers as of February 16, 2011 at 11:59 PM CST*.
Here is a blueprint for how Ted Thompson should proceed before the 2011 NFL season to help the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl XLVI:
Quarterback:
- Under Contract for 2011: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, and Graham Harrell
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: The Packers should have locked up back-up quarterback Matt Flynn to a four-year, front-end loaded long-term deal at the start of 2010 because it was an uncapped year. Even if the Packers decided to trade Flynn, having him under contract for a few years at a cap friendly amount would make him even more enticing to other NFL teams. After playing well against the New England Patriots with Rodgers out with a concussion, a number of NFL teams took notice and Flynn likely priced himself out of Green Bay. Since the Packers didn’t lock up Flynn long-term, they need to keep Graham Harrell on the roster to see if he is worthy of backing up Rodgers in 2012 when Flynn is set to become a free agent.
Running Back:
- Under Contract for 2011: Ryan Grant, James Starks, and Dimitri Nance
- Free Agent: Brandon Jackson
- Advice: Brandon Jackson never performed like a starting running back after starting running back Ryan Grant went down for the season Week #1 against the Eagles. As a result, let Jackson leave via free agency. The Packers should draft another young running back in the 2011 NFL Draft to create an open competition between Dimitri Nance and the running back taken in the draft for the 3rd running back spot.
Fullback:
- Under Contract for 2011: Quinn Johnson
- Free Agent: John Kuhn and Korey Hall
- Advice: Hall showed flashes of being a starting fullback but struggled with injuries throughout his Packer career so the Packers should let Hall leave via free agency. John Kuhn is the younger version of Craig Counsell (jack-of-all trades that plays a number of positions along the infield for the Brewers) in the backfield for the Packers so the Packers should sign Kuhn to a three-year contract extension. Finally, please do not draft another fullback.
Wide Receiver:
- Under Contract for 2011: Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, Brett Swain, Antonio Robinson, and Chastin West
- Free Agent: James Jones
- Advice: The new wide receiver pecking order in terms of production is Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Driver then Swain. Jones is set to become a free agent and ironically his shaky hands give the Packers a chance to bring Jones back in 2011. With Nelson set to become a free agent after 2012 and Driver getting older, the Packers need a long-term plan at wide receiver. Start by offering Jones a respectable four-year contract extension. No matter what Jones does, draft a wide receiver early in the 2011 NFL Draft. Finally, start negotiations with Nelson about a long-term contract extension.
Tight End:
- Under Contract for 2011: Jermichael Finley, Andrew Quarless, Tom Crabtree, Spencer Havner, and Donald Lee
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: Finley is the presumptive starter heading into 2011 despite missing most of the 2010 season with a knee injury chasing down a defender that scooped up a Donald Lee fumble. After Finley, everyone else will have to fight to earn a roster spot. Lee is getting paid too much money to be a back-up tight end so cut Lee. Take a wait and see approach with Quarless, Crabtree, and Havner. Although it is not a position of need, if the right tight end is available in the 2011 NFL Draft, take him because the Packers use tight ends all over the field.
Tackle:
- Under Contract for 2011: Chad Clifton, Bryan Bulaga, T.J. Lang, Mark Tauscher, Marshall Newhouse, and Chris Campbell
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: If healthy, Chad Clifton deserves to be the starter at left tackle in 2011. If Clifton starts at left tackle, keep Bulaga at right tackle. After that, Newhouse and Lang are still playing under their rookie contracts so they deserve to be on the team in 2011 as developmental guards/tackles. Unfortunately the odd man out is the glorious neck beard of Mark Tauscher because he is coming off another season ending injury and is owed $4.5 million in 2011. The Packers should take a quality left tackle early in the 2011 NFL Draft because Clifton is probably playing his last season in Green bay in 2011.
Guard:
- Under Contract for 2011: Josh Sitton, Nick McDonald, and Adrian Battles
- Free Agent: Daryn Colledge and Jason Spitz
- Advice: Sign Sitton to a long-term extension now. Barring a catastrophic injury, Sitton's asking price is only going up the more games he plays. After an up and down 2009, Daryn Colledge rebounded to play well in 2010. Colledge expects to be one of the highest paid guards in the NFL so let him leave via free agency unless he accepts a cheap, short-term extension. Much like Colledge, unless Spitz accepts a cheap one-year deal, let him leave via free agency too. Finally the Packers should draft a guard in the 2011 NFL Draft to make-up for potentially losing Colledge and Spitz.
Center:
- Under Contract for 2011: Scott Wells and Evan Dietrich-Smith
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: Evan Dietrich-Smith is not a long-term answer at center for the Packers or they would have kept him at the end of training camp. With Wells entrenched as the starter at center, the Packers need to groom their successor at center. The most likely candidates are McDonald or a future draft pick.
Defensive End:
- Under Contract for 2011: Ryan Pickett, Mike Neal, Howard Green, C.J. Wilson, Jarius Wynn, Curtis Young, and Justin Harrell
- Free Agent: Cullen Jenkins
- Advice: Jenkins played with a broken hand for the first half of 2010 and missed part of the second half of the season with a calf injury because he was playing during garbage time. I know Jenkins is 30 and suffered a few injuries but Ted Thompson should have used the uncapped year to sign Jenkins to a four-year, front-end loaded extension. Since Jenkins did not sign an extension, let him leave via free agency. With Pickett, Neal, Green, Wilson, and Wynn in the fold the Packers should cut Justin Harrell. Packer fans feel bad for Harrell on a personal level but why keep him on the roster year-after-year just to put him on injured reserve?
Defensive Tackle:
- Under Contract for 2011: B.J. Raji and Jay Ross
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: Pickett and Green can play defensive tackle in a pinch but the Packers need to add younger depth at defensive tackle via free agency or the draft to allow B.J. Raji to play fewer snaps in 2011.
Outside Linebacker:
- Under Contract for 2011: Clay Matthews, Brad Jones, Frank Zombo, Brady Poppinga, Erik Walden, Robert Francois, Diyral Brigs, and Cardia Jackson
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: Fans are clamoring for the Packers to use a high draft pick on an outside linebacker to pair with Clay Matthews for the next decade. I completely disagree, there are a number of good outside linebackers on the roster. Jones, Zombo, and Walden showed flashes last year but were injured too much to get a good gauge of who is the best of the three. If the right player is available in the draft, take him, but don’t use a high draft pick on an outside linebacker.
Middle Linebacker:
- Under Contract for 2011: Desmond Bishop, A.J. Hawk, Nick Barnett, Brandon Chillar, and Matt Wilhelm
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: I like the four-year contract extension the Packers gave Desmond Bishop because it gives the Packers perfect roster flexibility at middle linebacker. Once Barnett went down in 2010, Hawk took over as the main signal caller and performed admirably. Barnett is owed $6.05 million in 2011 and $6.55 million in 2012. Chillar is owed $2.6 million in 2011, $3.3 million in 2012, and $3.6 million in 2013. Hawk is owed $10 million in 2011, which is the final year of his rookie contract. The Packers need to sign Hawk to a five-year extension so they can stagger their middle linebacker contracts to come off the books yearly from 2012 through 2015. One final note, the four best linebackers on roster are: Matthews, Hawk, Bishop, and Barnett. Unfortunately three of them play middle linebacker. Since the Packers only play a traditional 3-4 defense on about 1/3rd of their defensive snaps allow Hawk, Bishop, and Barnett to be on the field at the same time. I say open camp with Hawk and Bishop as the starting middle linebackers. Let Chillar play as the primary back up at middle linebacker. Barnett is coming off an injury so it might be tough, but see if Barnett can play a hybrid middle linebacker/outside linebacker.
Cornerback:
- Under Contract for 2011: Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, Brandon Underwood, Pat Lee, Josh Gordy, and Josh Bell
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: The Packers know that their top three cornerbacks in 2011 will be Woodson, Williams, and Shields. After that the Packers have a bunch of guys that have failed to seize their opportunities. With Underwood getting in trouble off the field, Bell and Lee getting hurt all the time, and Gordy being raw the Packers need to draft a cornerback earlier rather than later in the 2011 NFL Draft. Hopefully competition for the 4th and 5th cornerback spot will bring out the best in the lower level cornerbacks on the roster.
Safety:
- Under Contract for 2011: Nick Collins, Morgan Burnett, Jarrett Bush, Derrick Martin, Anthony Smith, Michael Greco, and Anthony Levine.
- Free Agent: Charlie Peprah and Atari Bigby
- Advice: Charlie Peprah played great in place of injured rookie Morgan Burnett during the regular season and elevated his play in the playoffs. The Packers need to resign Peprah to a two-year contract extension. After that, the Packers need to decide whether Smith, Bigby, or Martin is worth keeping as a 5th safety behind Collins, Burnett, Peprah, and Bush. I say keep Smith but get rid of Bigby and Martin.
Specialists:
- Under Contract for 2011: Tim Masthay (P) and Brett Goode (LS)
- Free Agent: Mason Crosby (K)
- Advice: With Masthay and Goode signed for 2011, the Packers need to resign Crosby. Instead of creating a training camp competition for Crosby, resign him and tell him that he is the starter heading into 2011. Crosby is past competition being a source of motivation to perform better. Plus if Crosby struggles in 2011 there is always a free agent kicker available.
Footnote:
* = General manager Ted Thompson signed everyone that finished the season on the practice squad (Adrian Battles, Chris Campbell, Michael Greco, Cardia Jackson, Anthony Levine, Antonio Robinson, Jay Ross, Chastin West, and Curtis Young) to "futures" contracts. That basically means the Packers signed those players to their 80-man roster for the off-season and gives them a chance to make the 53-man roster.
Depending on what type of agreement the owners and the players reach, some of the players below might not have enough accrued service time to become free agents (i.e. James Jones) but to make things as simple as possible, players will only be considered under contract for 2011 if they actually signed a deal with the Packers as of February 16, 2011 at 11:59 PM CST*.
Here is a blueprint for how Ted Thompson should proceed before the 2011 NFL season to help the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl XLVI:
Quarterback:
- Under Contract for 2011: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, and Graham Harrell
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: The Packers should have locked up back-up quarterback Matt Flynn to a four-year, front-end loaded long-term deal at the start of 2010 because it was an uncapped year. Even if the Packers decided to trade Flynn, having him under contract for a few years at a cap friendly amount would make him even more enticing to other NFL teams. After playing well against the New England Patriots with Rodgers out with a concussion, a number of NFL teams took notice and Flynn likely priced himself out of Green Bay. Since the Packers didn’t lock up Flynn long-term, they need to keep Graham Harrell on the roster to see if he is worthy of backing up Rodgers in 2012 when Flynn is set to become a free agent.
Running Back:
- Under Contract for 2011: Ryan Grant, James Starks, and Dimitri Nance
- Free Agent: Brandon Jackson
- Advice: Brandon Jackson never performed like a starting running back after starting running back Ryan Grant went down for the season Week #1 against the Eagles. As a result, let Jackson leave via free agency. The Packers should draft another young running back in the 2011 NFL Draft to create an open competition between Dimitri Nance and the running back taken in the draft for the 3rd running back spot.
Fullback:
- Under Contract for 2011: Quinn Johnson
- Free Agent: John Kuhn and Korey Hall
- Advice: Hall showed flashes of being a starting fullback but struggled with injuries throughout his Packer career so the Packers should let Hall leave via free agency. John Kuhn is the younger version of Craig Counsell (jack-of-all trades that plays a number of positions along the infield for the Brewers) in the backfield for the Packers so the Packers should sign Kuhn to a three-year contract extension. Finally, please do not draft another fullback.
Wide Receiver:
- Under Contract for 2011: Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, Brett Swain, Antonio Robinson, and Chastin West
- Free Agent: James Jones
- Advice: The new wide receiver pecking order in terms of production is Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Driver then Swain. Jones is set to become a free agent and ironically his shaky hands give the Packers a chance to bring Jones back in 2011. With Nelson set to become a free agent after 2012 and Driver getting older, the Packers need a long-term plan at wide receiver. Start by offering Jones a respectable four-year contract extension. No matter what Jones does, draft a wide receiver early in the 2011 NFL Draft. Finally, start negotiations with Nelson about a long-term contract extension.
Tight End:
- Under Contract for 2011: Jermichael Finley, Andrew Quarless, Tom Crabtree, Spencer Havner, and Donald Lee
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: Finley is the presumptive starter heading into 2011 despite missing most of the 2010 season with a knee injury chasing down a defender that scooped up a Donald Lee fumble. After Finley, everyone else will have to fight to earn a roster spot. Lee is getting paid too much money to be a back-up tight end so cut Lee. Take a wait and see approach with Quarless, Crabtree, and Havner. Although it is not a position of need, if the right tight end is available in the 2011 NFL Draft, take him because the Packers use tight ends all over the field.
Tackle:
- Under Contract for 2011: Chad Clifton, Bryan Bulaga, T.J. Lang, Mark Tauscher, Marshall Newhouse, and Chris Campbell
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: If healthy, Chad Clifton deserves to be the starter at left tackle in 2011. If Clifton starts at left tackle, keep Bulaga at right tackle. After that, Newhouse and Lang are still playing under their rookie contracts so they deserve to be on the team in 2011 as developmental guards/tackles. Unfortunately the odd man out is the glorious neck beard of Mark Tauscher because he is coming off another season ending injury and is owed $4.5 million in 2011. The Packers should take a quality left tackle early in the 2011 NFL Draft because Clifton is probably playing his last season in Green bay in 2011.
Guard:
- Under Contract for 2011: Josh Sitton, Nick McDonald, and Adrian Battles
- Free Agent: Daryn Colledge and Jason Spitz
- Advice: Sign Sitton to a long-term extension now. Barring a catastrophic injury, Sitton's asking price is only going up the more games he plays. After an up and down 2009, Daryn Colledge rebounded to play well in 2010. Colledge expects to be one of the highest paid guards in the NFL so let him leave via free agency unless he accepts a cheap, short-term extension. Much like Colledge, unless Spitz accepts a cheap one-year deal, let him leave via free agency too. Finally the Packers should draft a guard in the 2011 NFL Draft to make-up for potentially losing Colledge and Spitz.
Center:
- Under Contract for 2011: Scott Wells and Evan Dietrich-Smith
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: Evan Dietrich-Smith is not a long-term answer at center for the Packers or they would have kept him at the end of training camp. With Wells entrenched as the starter at center, the Packers need to groom their successor at center. The most likely candidates are McDonald or a future draft pick.
Defensive End:
- Under Contract for 2011: Ryan Pickett, Mike Neal, Howard Green, C.J. Wilson, Jarius Wynn, Curtis Young, and Justin Harrell
- Free Agent: Cullen Jenkins
- Advice: Jenkins played with a broken hand for the first half of 2010 and missed part of the second half of the season with a calf injury because he was playing during garbage time. I know Jenkins is 30 and suffered a few injuries but Ted Thompson should have used the uncapped year to sign Jenkins to a four-year, front-end loaded extension. Since Jenkins did not sign an extension, let him leave via free agency. With Pickett, Neal, Green, Wilson, and Wynn in the fold the Packers should cut Justin Harrell. Packer fans feel bad for Harrell on a personal level but why keep him on the roster year-after-year just to put him on injured reserve?
Defensive Tackle:
- Under Contract for 2011: B.J. Raji and Jay Ross
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: Pickett and Green can play defensive tackle in a pinch but the Packers need to add younger depth at defensive tackle via free agency or the draft to allow B.J. Raji to play fewer snaps in 2011.
Outside Linebacker:
- Under Contract for 2011: Clay Matthews, Brad Jones, Frank Zombo, Brady Poppinga, Erik Walden, Robert Francois, Diyral Brigs, and Cardia Jackson
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: Fans are clamoring for the Packers to use a high draft pick on an outside linebacker to pair with Clay Matthews for the next decade. I completely disagree, there are a number of good outside linebackers on the roster. Jones, Zombo, and Walden showed flashes last year but were injured too much to get a good gauge of who is the best of the three. If the right player is available in the draft, take him, but don’t use a high draft pick on an outside linebacker.
Middle Linebacker:
- Under Contract for 2011: Desmond Bishop, A.J. Hawk, Nick Barnett, Brandon Chillar, and Matt Wilhelm
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: I like the four-year contract extension the Packers gave Desmond Bishop because it gives the Packers perfect roster flexibility at middle linebacker. Once Barnett went down in 2010, Hawk took over as the main signal caller and performed admirably. Barnett is owed $6.05 million in 2011 and $6.55 million in 2012. Chillar is owed $2.6 million in 2011, $3.3 million in 2012, and $3.6 million in 2013. Hawk is owed $10 million in 2011, which is the final year of his rookie contract. The Packers need to sign Hawk to a five-year extension so they can stagger their middle linebacker contracts to come off the books yearly from 2012 through 2015. One final note, the four best linebackers on roster are: Matthews, Hawk, Bishop, and Barnett. Unfortunately three of them play middle linebacker. Since the Packers only play a traditional 3-4 defense on about 1/3rd of their defensive snaps allow Hawk, Bishop, and Barnett to be on the field at the same time. I say open camp with Hawk and Bishop as the starting middle linebackers. Let Chillar play as the primary back up at middle linebacker. Barnett is coming off an injury so it might be tough, but see if Barnett can play a hybrid middle linebacker/outside linebacker.
Cornerback:
- Under Contract for 2011: Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, Brandon Underwood, Pat Lee, Josh Gordy, and Josh Bell
- Free Agent: None
- Advice: The Packers know that their top three cornerbacks in 2011 will be Woodson, Williams, and Shields. After that the Packers have a bunch of guys that have failed to seize their opportunities. With Underwood getting in trouble off the field, Bell and Lee getting hurt all the time, and Gordy being raw the Packers need to draft a cornerback earlier rather than later in the 2011 NFL Draft. Hopefully competition for the 4th and 5th cornerback spot will bring out the best in the lower level cornerbacks on the roster.
Safety:
- Under Contract for 2011: Nick Collins, Morgan Burnett, Jarrett Bush, Derrick Martin, Anthony Smith, Michael Greco, and Anthony Levine.
- Free Agent: Charlie Peprah and Atari Bigby
- Advice: Charlie Peprah played great in place of injured rookie Morgan Burnett during the regular season and elevated his play in the playoffs. The Packers need to resign Peprah to a two-year contract extension. After that, the Packers need to decide whether Smith, Bigby, or Martin is worth keeping as a 5th safety behind Collins, Burnett, Peprah, and Bush. I say keep Smith but get rid of Bigby and Martin.
Specialists:
- Under Contract for 2011: Tim Masthay (P) and Brett Goode (LS)
- Free Agent: Mason Crosby (K)
- Advice: With Masthay and Goode signed for 2011, the Packers need to resign Crosby. Instead of creating a training camp competition for Crosby, resign him and tell him that he is the starter heading into 2011. Crosby is past competition being a source of motivation to perform better. Plus if Crosby struggles in 2011 there is always a free agent kicker available.
Footnote:
* = General manager Ted Thompson signed everyone that finished the season on the practice squad (Adrian Battles, Chris Campbell, Michael Greco, Cardia Jackson, Anthony Levine, Antonio Robinson, Jay Ross, Chastin West, and Curtis Young) to "futures" contracts. That basically means the Packers signed those players to their 80-man roster for the off-season and gives them a chance to make the 53-man roster.
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