Milwaukee Bucks General Manager John Hammond has shown he can wheel and deal since he joined the organization in April of 2008. Of the roster Hammond inherited, only 5 players remain: 3 untradeable contracts (Michael Redd, Dan Gadzuric and Charlie Bell), 1 up-and-comer (Ersan Ilyasova) and 1 franchise center (Andrew Bogut).
As the 2010 NBA Trade Deadline approaches (Thursday, February 18, 2010) a quick look at the Milwaukee Bucks roster shows they have very few assets to trade:
Untradeable:
- Michael Redd (SG): has torn multiple knee ligaments the last two seasons. Redd is earning $17 million this year and has a player option worth $18.3 million next year.
- Dan Gadzuric (C): plays sparingly despite earning $6.75 million this year and $7.25 million next year.
- Charlie Bell (SG): has been starting since Redd's injury but Bell's age (30) and bloated contract (3-years, $11.55 million left) makes him untradeable until the last year of his deal.
Expiring Contracts:
- Luke Ridnour (PG): has been the 6th man of the year for the Bucks. Ridnour is earning $6.5 million this season and since the Bucks are still in the playoff hunt they will most likely hold on to Ridnour unless they get a really attractive offer.
- Kurt Thomas (PF): has drawn interest from Portland and other teams looking for a dependable veteran. Thomas is earning $3.8 million this season which is relatively cheap for a veteran big man as sad as that sounds.
- Hakim Warrick (PF): I grossly overvalued Warrick's value in my pre-season Milwaukee Bucks Preview here. Warrick's athleticism and versatility might be attractive to a borderline contender since he is earning $3 million this season.
- Joe Alexander (SF): Hammond's first draft pick as Bucks GM has been an absolute bust. Hammond (like Ron Wolf) swallowed his pride and did not exercise the Bucks team option for the 3rd year of Alexander's rookie contract. Alexander is earning $2.58 million this season which is VERY expensive for someone that has yet to appear for the Bucks this season and is toiling in the NBDL.
- Francisco Elson (PF/C): is out indefinitely with an injury so despite his cheap salary ($1.7 million) for an NBA veteran big man, the Bucks cannot trade Elson.
- Jerry Stackhouse (SG/SF): is earning a prorated $680,000 veteran minimum this season and is highly unlikely to get traded since he was signed a little less than a month ago which means every other NBA team could have signed Stackhouse if they were interested in his services.
Favorable short-term deals:
- Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF): was drafted 36th overall by the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2nd Round of the 2005 NBA Draft. Ilyasova's career has been all over the map since getting drafted by the Bucks: Tulsa, OK (NBDL '05-'06), Milwaukee, WI (NBA '06-'07), and Barcelona, Spain (FC Barcelona '07-'09) before returning to the Bucks on a 3-year, $6.96 million deal this offseason. Ilyasova is a budding NBA star with a cheap contract which makes him borderline untradeable.
- Carlos Delfino (SG/SF): was drafted by the Detroit Pistons while Bucks GM John Hammond was a member of Detroit's front office. Hammond acquired Delfino this off-season in a sign-and-trade deal (3-year, $10.5 million contract with only $500,000 guaranteed in the 2nd year and the 3rd year is a team option) because of his affinity to Deflino which means Delfino is unlikely to get traded.
Prospects:
- Luc Mbah a Moute (SF/PF): The Prince (check here for an explanation of the nickname) has been a lock down defender since the Bucks drafted him in the 2nd round of the 2008 NBA Draft. Add in that The Prince's offensive game is improving and he makes next to nothing by NBA standards (2-years, $1.6 million left) and you see why The Prince is almost untradeable.
- Jodie Meeks (SG): too early to tell whether the rookie will be a good professional player. Based on his production in college at Kentucky and cheap contract (3-years, 2.3 million) the Bucks will hold onto Meeks based on potential alone.
Untouchable:
- Andrew Bogut (C): despite his expensive extension (5-year, $60.5 million) kicking in this season, franchise centers don't come along often so the Bucks would have to get an amazing offer to even entertain moving the future all-star.
- Brandon Jennings (PG): his 55 point performance put the Milwaukee Bucks on the national radar. Although the rookie has come back to earth in recent weeks, Jennings is the most untouchable player on the Bucks roster based on his potential and cheap rookie contract (5-years, $14.5 million).
Despite having few trade assets, I did my best to work the ESPN Trade Machine. Only try the trade machine if you have hours to kill but I guess if you have read this far then you must have ample discretionary time to spend on hypothetical NBA trades. All of these trades involve the Milwaukee Bucks taking on money long-term which Bucks GM John Hammond has said he will entertain since the Bucks only have $25 million committed for the 2011-12 season.
Here is the logic, teams want to dump long-term contracts for short-term contracts if at all possible. Furthermore, the Milwaukee Bucks will have a hard time enticing marquee free agents to sign in Milwaukee so they will most likely have to acquire them via trades. Finally, with a core of Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut locked up for the next 5 seasons players should be happier to play in Milwaukee then they have been in a long time. Here are my 5 trade deadline deals that the Milwaukee Bucks would do in a heart beat:
#5) Between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Golden State Warriors:
Golden State gets:
- Joe Alexander (SF): 1-year, $2.58 million
- Kurt Thomas (PF): 1-year, $3.8 million
- Luke Ridnour (PG): 1-year, $6.5 million
Milwaukee gets:
- Anthony Randolph (PF): 4-years, $10.77 million left ($1.84 million in '09-'10, $1.97 million in '10-'11, $2.91 million team option in '11'-'12 and $4.05 million qualifying offer in '12-'13)
- Monta Ellis (SG): 5-years, $55 million left (first 4 years $11 million guaranteed each season and 5th year player option for $11 million)
It is no secret that Golden State has been trying to move Monte Ellis ever since his infamous motorcycle accident. Ellis's large contract and the emergence of rookie Stephen Curry has only increased Golden State's interest in trading Ellis. The currently hurt and disgruntled Anthony Randolph is the exact type of power forward the Bucks have been searching for since Vin Baker left many moons ago. This trade allows Milwaukee to fill holes at shooting guard and power forward in one fell swoop. Basically this trade is a salary dump for Golden State.
Speaking of salary dump trades, the Bucks shipping Richard Jefferson to San Antonio for Kurt Thomas, Fabricio Oberto (who was then traded for Amir Johnson who was then part of the Carlos Delfino sign-and-trade) and Bruce Bowen (retired) is not looking like such a horrible trade with how bad Richard Jefferson is playing. The Spurs are considered one of the smartest franchises in the NBA so nice to see the Bucks fleece them in a trade. Also don't forget Jefferson is still owed $15 million next season. As the dust starts to settle, Richard Jefferson for Kurt Thomas and Carlos Delfino looks like a great trade for the Bucks.
#4) Between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Sacramento Kings:
Sacramento gets:
- Kurt Thomas (PF): 1-year, $3.8 million
- Luke Ridnour (PG): 1-year, $6.5 million
Milwaukee gets:
- Kevin Martin (SG): 4-years, $46.24 million left ($10.18 million in '09-'10, $11.1 million in '10-'11, 12.02 million in '11-'12 and $12.94 million in '12-'13)
The emergence of presumptive rookie of the year Tyreke Evans has lead to a crowded back court in Sacramento. Acquiring Ridnour would allow Evans to get some schooling under Ridnour just like Brandon Jennings has gotten in the first half of the season. This trade allows the Bucks to fill their gaping hole at shooting guard and allows Sacramento to transition from the Kevin Martin era to the Tyreke Evans era.
#3) The Milwaukee Bucks and the Portland Trailblazers:
Portland gets:
- Kurt Thomas (PF): 1-year, $3.8 million
- Milwaukee's 2010 1st round pick (top 5 protected)
Milwaukee gets:
- Rudy Fernandez (SG): 4-years, $7.79 million left ($1.17 million in '09-'10, $1.25 million in '10-'11, $2.18 million team option in '11'-12 and $3.19 qualifying offer in '12-'13)
- Travis Outlaw (SF/PF): 1-year, $4 million
Portland's GM Kevin Pritchard has been dubbed an NBA genius even though he is the guy that drafted gimpy Greg Oden (and his explicit camera phone pictures) ahead of Kevin Durant (possibly an all-time NBA great) so there is always room to snooker Pritchard in a trade. Plus, Pritchard is on record as having interest in getting bigger on the front line for a playoff run so Thomas is an attractive option. Rudy Fernandez is apparently "untouchable" at this point but the Bucks' draft pick might sweeten the deal enough for Pritchard to bite which would allow Milwaukee to get their shooting guard of the future while adding to their record number of international players all at once.
#2) The Milwaukee Bucks and the Chicago Bulls:
Chicago gets:
- Kurt Thomas (PF): 1-year, $3.8 million
- Luke Ridnour (PG): 1-year, $6.5 million
Milwaukee gets:
- Kirk Hinrich (SG): 3-years, $26.5 million left ($9.5 million in '09-'10, $9 million in '10-'11 and $8 million in '11-'12)
Chicago is in full on salary dump mode. With the best young point guard in the NBA (Derrick Rose) and a fair amount of cap space going into the most anticipated NBA off-season in a decade, the Bulls are hoping to land one if not two of the prized NBA Free agents this off-season: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh or Joe Johnson. By dumping Hinrich's contract they get one step closer to landing one or possibly two of the aforementioned studs in the off-season. Milwaukee gets to shore up their shooting guard position for the next few seasons at a fairly palatable price with a contract that actually decreases in yearly payout, which is unusual in professional sports.
#1) The Milwaukee Bucks and the Philadelphia 76ers:
Philadelphia gets:
- Hakim Warrick (PF): 1-year, $3 million
- Kurt Thomas (PF): 1-year, $3.8 million
- Luke Ridnour (PG): 1-year, $6.5 million
- Milwaukee's 2010 1st round pick (top 5 protected)
Milwaukee gets:
- Andre Iguodala (SG): 5-years, $68.7 million left ($12.2 million in '09-'10, $12.35 million in '10-'11, $13.53 million in '11-'12, $14.72 million in '12-'13 and $15.9 million player option in '13-'14).
If Philadelphia could throw an atom bomb and their roster and start over they would. Philadelphia's best player is Iguodala but $68.7 million over 5 years is a hefty sum to pay him so it wouldn't be all that surprising to see them dump his salary. You think the Bucks had it bad with Michael Redd and Danny G. Without Iduodala, Philadephia has $40.4 million committed to Elton Brand, Samuel Dalembert, Jason Kapono and Louis Williams for the 2010-11 season so anything is possible with Philadelphia.
If you read this far I want to thank you very much for spending all this time reading my random thoughts on the Milwaukee Bucks and potential trades that will never happen. Please feel free to leave a comment at the bottom or email me (bpbsports@gmail.com) your thoughts on these trades or any other trade ideas you might have as the 2010 NBA Trade Deadline approaches.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Sunday Funday - Dan Jansen
Dan Jansen and Bonnie Blair were the most compelling American speedskaters between 1984 and 1994. Bonnie Blair was compelling because of her record setting performances while Dan Jansen was compelling for his heart wrenching falls.
Bonnie Blair feels like a native Cheesehead but she was actually born in New York and raised in Champaign, Illinois so although Blair is the most decorated winter Olympian with 6 medals (5 gold medals and 1 bronze medal) going into the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics,FN1 she does not fit the Cheesehead criteria for "Sunday Funday."
Onto the real Cheesehead, Dan Jansen who is a native of West Allis, Wisconsin. Jansen was a very accomplished junior speedskater, he set junior world records which lead to his first Olympic appearance in 1984 in Sarajevo where he finished 4th in the 500 meters speedskating competition.
On the heels of a strong showing in the 1984 Olympics, Jansen was a favorite to medal in the 500 and 1,000 meter speedskating competitions in the 1988 Winter Olympics in Calgary. Unfortunately, Jansen found out that he lost his sister to leukemia during the 1988 Winter Olympics. With a heavy heart, Jansen still competed in the 500 and 1,000 meter speedskating competitions but fell in both resulting in no medals for the second straight Olympics for Jansen.
Jansen was the prohibitive favorite again in 1992 in the 500 and 1,000 meter speedskating competitions in Albertville, France. Again Jansen failed to medal in either competition.
After the 1992 Summer and Winter Olympics, the International Olympic Committee decided to stagger the events instead of having them in the same calendar year. As a result, the Winter Olympics were staged in 1994 (only two years after their last installment in Albertville, France) in Lillehammer, Norway which benefited Jansen since he probably would have been too old by speedskating standard to compete if they were held in 1996.
The 1994 Winter Olympics in Lillehammer, NorwayFN2 started out much like 1984, 1988 and 1992 when Jansen failed to medal in his best event, the 500 meter. Instead of hanging his head, Jansen competed in the 1,000 with relatively low expectations. What a competition that 1,000 meters speedskating competition was for Jansen. On February 18, 1994 Jansen set a World Record of 1:12.43 in the 1,000 meters speedskaing competition. Jansen celebrating his gold medal and world record setting performance is one of the most iconic images in Olympic history and our Sunday Funday Olympic moment to remember.
Footnotes:
FN1: Apollo Anton Ono tied Blair when he won a silver medal in 1,500 meter short-track on Saturday, February 13, 2010 to raise his all-time winter Olympic medal count to 6 medals (2 gold medals, 2 silver medals and 2 bronze medals). Ono has a chance to eclipse Blair with two events remaining in the 2010 Winter Olympic Games in Vancouver.
FN2: Jansen actually competed in Hammar, Norway where all of the skating portions of the 1994 Winter Olympics were held.
Bonnie Blair feels like a native Cheesehead but she was actually born in New York and raised in Champaign, Illinois so although Blair is the most decorated winter Olympian with 6 medals (5 gold medals and 1 bronze medal) going into the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics,FN1 she does not fit the Cheesehead criteria for "Sunday Funday."
Onto the real Cheesehead, Dan Jansen who is a native of West Allis, Wisconsin. Jansen was a very accomplished junior speedskater, he set junior world records which lead to his first Olympic appearance in 1984 in Sarajevo where he finished 4th in the 500 meters speedskating competition.
On the heels of a strong showing in the 1984 Olympics, Jansen was a favorite to medal in the 500 and 1,000 meter speedskating competitions in the 1988 Winter Olympics in Calgary. Unfortunately, Jansen found out that he lost his sister to leukemia during the 1988 Winter Olympics. With a heavy heart, Jansen still competed in the 500 and 1,000 meter speedskating competitions but fell in both resulting in no medals for the second straight Olympics for Jansen.
Jansen was the prohibitive favorite again in 1992 in the 500 and 1,000 meter speedskating competitions in Albertville, France. Again Jansen failed to medal in either competition.
After the 1992 Summer and Winter Olympics, the International Olympic Committee decided to stagger the events instead of having them in the same calendar year. As a result, the Winter Olympics were staged in 1994 (only two years after their last installment in Albertville, France) in Lillehammer, Norway which benefited Jansen since he probably would have been too old by speedskating standard to compete if they were held in 1996.
The 1994 Winter Olympics in Lillehammer, NorwayFN2 started out much like 1984, 1988 and 1992 when Jansen failed to medal in his best event, the 500 meter. Instead of hanging his head, Jansen competed in the 1,000 with relatively low expectations. What a competition that 1,000 meters speedskating competition was for Jansen. On February 18, 1994 Jansen set a World Record of 1:12.43 in the 1,000 meters speedskaing competition. Jansen celebrating his gold medal and world record setting performance is one of the most iconic images in Olympic history and our Sunday Funday Olympic moment to remember.
Footnotes:
FN1: Apollo Anton Ono tied Blair when he won a silver medal in 1,500 meter short-track on Saturday, February 13, 2010 to raise his all-time winter Olympic medal count to 6 medals (2 gold medals, 2 silver medals and 2 bronze medals). Ono has a chance to eclipse Blair with two events remaining in the 2010 Winter Olympic Games in Vancouver.
FN2: Jansen actually competed in Hammar, Norway where all of the skating portions of the 1994 Winter Olympics were held.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Wednesday What Happened - Ryan Grant's Contract Extension
Welcome to the inaugural "Wednesday What Happened" column where I look back at an organizational decision made by a Cheesehead sports team to see how that decision currently impacts the team. "Wednesday What Happened" and "Sunday Funday" will be two regular columns going forward with a smattering of other columns, chats, mailbags and other fun mixed in. If you missed the inaugural "Sunday Funday" article where I looked back at the Super Bowl XXXI, the Packers' last Super Bowl win, click here.
Onto Ryan Grant. Rewind to the Green Bay Packers' 2008 training camp. As the Packers were trying to deal with the Brett Favre saga, Ryan Grant remained unsigned. Grant was coming off an unexpectedly impressive first season with the Green Bay Packers thanks in large part to Brett Favre's impressive 2007 regular season performance (356 completions on 535 attempts for 4,155 yards, 28 touchdowns, 15 interceptions for a passer rating of 95.7) which forced teams to defend the pass and gave Grant huge running lanes over the last 9 games of the 2007 regular season.
Going into the 2008 season Grant was an "exclusive-rights free agent" but was unwilling to sign the one-year tender offered by the Packers. ESPN reported that in lieu of the one-year tender the Packers countered with a back end loaded six-year contract that paid Grant $2 million in the first year (source).
The Green Bay Packers almost never budge when players holdout for more money (think Mike McKenzie and Javon Walker) or refuse to take a pay cut (think Darren Sharper and Ryan Longwell). Grant and his agent Alan Herman knew that but tried anyway because the Packers had three things working against them.
First, the Packers did not have a viable starting running back on the roster besides Grant. The other running backs in camp at the time were Vernand Morency (released August 30, 2008), Noah Herron (released August 30, 2008), DeShawn Wynn (his injury in 2007 gave Grant the chance to star and flourish...some might argue without that injury Grant would be launching his modeling career as opposed to earning millions as an NFL running back) and Kregg Lumpkin (at the time was an undrafted rookie known for getting injured).
Second, the Packers were were preoccupied with the Favre saga. The Favre saga was such a PR nightmare that the Packers didn't want more public unrest.
Third, the Packers were handing the keys to the franchise to Aaron Rodgers, a promising but then unproven quarterback at the time. Having a quality starting running back was essential to help Rodgers flourish as a starting NFL quarterback.
In the end the Packer relented and signed Grant to a lucrative 4-year contract. I will first detail the initial terms of the contract. Then I will show how much money Grant has earned half way through the contract. Finally I will look at how much Grant stands to earn in 2010 and 2011 (spoiler alert...its a ton of money, Grant would be one of the highest paid Packers in 2011). Here are the initial contract terms:
Salary and Roster Bonus:
2008: $750,000 base salary and $3.5 million roster bonus
2009: $750,000 base salary and $2.75 million roster bonus due March of 2009
2010: $3 million base salary and $1.25 million roster bonus due March of 2010
2011: $3.5 million base salary and $1.75 million roster bonus due March of 2011
Easily Attained Incentives:
- $31,250 for every regular season game Grant appears in over the life of the contract (can earn up to $500,000 a year or $2 million over the life of the contract). This will be referred to as an "appearance bonus" throughout the rest of the article.
- $250,000 "off-season workout bonus" in the final three years of the contract.
Peer Related Incentives:
- If Grant finishes in the top 10 in the NFC in rushing in any year of the deal, he earns $150,000.
- If Grant finishes in the top 5 in the NFC in rushing in any year of the deal, he earns $500,000.
- If Grant is selected to the Pro Bowl in any year of the deal, he earns $250,000.
Yearly Rushing Yardage Contract Escalators:*
- If Grant rushes for 1,000 yards in a season, he earns an additional $500,000 in "base salary" the following season.
- If Grant rushes for 1,250 yards in a season, he earns an additional $1.5 million in "base salary" the following season.
- If Grant rushes for 1,500 yards or more in a season, he earns an additional $2.5 million in "base salary" the following season.
* = only apply to the first three years of the contract.
Final Bonus:
- If Grant rushes for between 3,600 and 4,099 yards over the life of the contract, he earns an additional $2 million incentive bonus at the end of the contract in 2011.
- If Grant rushes for 4,100 or more yards over the life of the contract, he earns an additional $4 million incentive bonus at the end of the contract in 2011.
Grant has already earned $10.15 million: $4.9 million in 2008 and $5.25 million in 2009
In 2008, Grant appeared in 16 regular season games contributing 312 rushing attempts for 1,203 rushing yards (3.9 average yards per carry), 4 touchdowns and 4 fumbles (3 lost). As a result, Grant earned $4.9 million in 2008:
- $3.5 million roster bonus
- $750,000 base salary
- $500,000 for appearing in 16 games
- $150,000 for finishing 6th in the NFC in rushing (source)
- $500,000 will be added to Grant's 2009 base salary for rushing for over 1,000 yards in 2008.
In 2009, Grant appeared in 16 regular season games contributing 282 rushing attempts for 1,253 rushing yards (4.4 average yards per carry), 11 touchdowns and 0 fumbles. As a result, Grant earned 5.25 million in 2009:
- $2.75 million roster bonus
- $750,000 base salary
- $500,000 for rushing over 1,000 yards in 2008
- $250,000 off-season workout bonus
- $500,000 for appearing in 16 games
- $500,000 for finishing 3rd in the NFC in rushing (source)
- $1.5 million will be added to Grant's 2010 base salary for rushing for over 1,250 yards in 2009.
Grant CAN earn $20.5 million more: $7.25 million in 2010 and $13.25 million in 2011
Before Grant ever takes a snap in 2010 he will be in line to earn $6 million:
- $1.25 million roster bonus
- $3 million base salary
- $1.5 million for rushing over 1,250 yards in 2009
- $250,000 off-season workout bonus.
Grant can easily earn another $1.25 million in 2010:
- $500,000 for finishing in the top 5 in rushing in the NFC in 2010
- $500,000 in appearance bonuses
- $250,000 if he makes the 2010 Pro Bowl.
That means Grant could easily earn $6.5 million and possibly $7.25 million if Grant has a Pro Bowl year. Grant can also add anywhere from $500,000 to $2.5 million to his 2011 base salary (rushing for 1,000 yards in 2010 earns him $500,000 more in 2011, rushing for 1,250 yards in 2010 earns him $1.5 million more in 2011 and rushing for over 1,500 yards in 2010 earns him $2.5 million more in 2011).
Before Grant ever takes a snap in 2011 (assuming he is still on the roster) he will be in line to earn $5.5 million:
- $1.75 million roster bonus
- $3.5 million base salary
- $250,000 in off-season workout bonus.
Grant has another $7.75 million in achievable incentives:
- $4 million incentive bonus at the end of the contract if Grant rushes for over 4,100 yards over the life of the contract
- $2.5 million if he rushes for over 1,500 yards in 2010
- $500,000 for finishing in the top 5 in rushing in the NFC in 2011
- $500,000 in appearance bonuses
- $250,000 if he makes the 2011 Pro Bowl.
Final Thoughts:
What have the Green Bay Packers gotten for their $10.15 million so far?
In 2008 Ryan Grant provided consistent output on the ground whether the Packers played a playoff team or a non-playoff team. Against playoff teams Grant rushed for 480 yards in 6 games or an average of 80 yards a game (92 yards against MIN, 83 yards against ATL, 105 yards against INDY, 86 yards @ TENN, 75 yards @ MIN and 39 yards against CAR). Against non-playoff teams Grant rushed for 723 in 10 games for an average of 73 yards a game (20 yards @ DET, 54 yards against DAL, 20 yards @ TB, 90 yards @ SEA, 145 yards against CHI, 67 yards @ NO, 104 yards against HOU, 56 yards @ JAX, 61 yards @ CHI and 106 yards against DET). To view Grant's 2008 game log click here.
That trend of balanced output against playoff and non-playoff teams came to a screeching halt in 2009. Check out Grant's rushing splits between playoff teams and non-playoff teams. Against playoff teams Grant rushed for 298 yards in 6 games or an average of 50 yards a game (46 yards against CIN, 51 yards @ MIN, 30 yards against MIN, 79 yards against DAL, 41 yards against BAL and 51 yards against AZ). Against non-playoff teams Grant rushed for 955 yards in 10 games or an average of 95.5 yards a game (61 yards against CHI, 99 yards @ STL, 90 yards against DET, 148 yards @ CLE, 96 yards @ TB, 129 yards against SF, 61 yards @ DET, 137 yards @ CHI, 37 yards @ PIT and 97 yards against SEA). To view Grant's 2009 game log click here.
That means in 2009 Grant piled up a bunch of rushing yards (and money) against non-playoff teams and didn't produce against playoff teams. Furthermore, since Grant signed his extension, the only playoff team he ran for over 100 against in the regular season was the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7 of 2008. The Packers pummeled the Colts in that game 34-14. Grant's stats weren't even that spectacular: 31 attempts for 105 yards for 1 touchdown and a long run of 14 (box score).
Ryan Grant is a good "one-cut" rusher in the zone blocking scheme that doesn't fumble that often (6 over his career, only 1 in 2009). That said, Grant is very one-dimensional. Grant provides little in the receiving game: 73 receptions for 458 yards for 1 touchdown for his three year Packer career.
Grant has shown flashes of being able to break long runs (think of his first run from scrimmage @ Chicago in 2009) but does that make him worth upwards of $13.25 million in 2011...certainly not. It will be interesting to see how Ted Thompson addresses this bloated contract he gave Ryan Grant in the next year and a half...
Onto Ryan Grant. Rewind to the Green Bay Packers' 2008 training camp. As the Packers were trying to deal with the Brett Favre saga, Ryan Grant remained unsigned. Grant was coming off an unexpectedly impressive first season with the Green Bay Packers thanks in large part to Brett Favre's impressive 2007 regular season performance (356 completions on 535 attempts for 4,155 yards, 28 touchdowns, 15 interceptions for a passer rating of 95.7) which forced teams to defend the pass and gave Grant huge running lanes over the last 9 games of the 2007 regular season.
Going into the 2008 season Grant was an "exclusive-rights free agent" but was unwilling to sign the one-year tender offered by the Packers. ESPN reported that in lieu of the one-year tender the Packers countered with a back end loaded six-year contract that paid Grant $2 million in the first year (source).
The Green Bay Packers almost never budge when players holdout for more money (think Mike McKenzie and Javon Walker) or refuse to take a pay cut (think Darren Sharper and Ryan Longwell). Grant and his agent Alan Herman knew that but tried anyway because the Packers had three things working against them.
First, the Packers did not have a viable starting running back on the roster besides Grant. The other running backs in camp at the time were Vernand Morency (released August 30, 2008), Noah Herron (released August 30, 2008), DeShawn Wynn (his injury in 2007 gave Grant the chance to star and flourish...some might argue without that injury Grant would be launching his modeling career as opposed to earning millions as an NFL running back) and Kregg Lumpkin (at the time was an undrafted rookie known for getting injured).
Second, the Packers were were preoccupied with the Favre saga. The Favre saga was such a PR nightmare that the Packers didn't want more public unrest.
Third, the Packers were handing the keys to the franchise to Aaron Rodgers, a promising but then unproven quarterback at the time. Having a quality starting running back was essential to help Rodgers flourish as a starting NFL quarterback.
In the end the Packer relented and signed Grant to a lucrative 4-year contract. I will first detail the initial terms of the contract. Then I will show how much money Grant has earned half way through the contract. Finally I will look at how much Grant stands to earn in 2010 and 2011 (spoiler alert...its a ton of money, Grant would be one of the highest paid Packers in 2011). Here are the initial contract terms:
Salary and Roster Bonus:
2008: $750,000 base salary and $3.5 million roster bonus
2009: $750,000 base salary and $2.75 million roster bonus due March of 2009
2010: $3 million base salary and $1.25 million roster bonus due March of 2010
2011: $3.5 million base salary and $1.75 million roster bonus due March of 2011
Easily Attained Incentives:
- $31,250 for every regular season game Grant appears in over the life of the contract (can earn up to $500,000 a year or $2 million over the life of the contract). This will be referred to as an "appearance bonus" throughout the rest of the article.
- $250,000 "off-season workout bonus" in the final three years of the contract.
Peer Related Incentives:
- If Grant finishes in the top 10 in the NFC in rushing in any year of the deal, he earns $150,000.
- If Grant finishes in the top 5 in the NFC in rushing in any year of the deal, he earns $500,000.
- If Grant is selected to the Pro Bowl in any year of the deal, he earns $250,000.
Yearly Rushing Yardage Contract Escalators:*
- If Grant rushes for 1,000 yards in a season, he earns an additional $500,000 in "base salary" the following season.
- If Grant rushes for 1,250 yards in a season, he earns an additional $1.5 million in "base salary" the following season.
- If Grant rushes for 1,500 yards or more in a season, he earns an additional $2.5 million in "base salary" the following season.
* = only apply to the first three years of the contract.
Final Bonus:
- If Grant rushes for between 3,600 and 4,099 yards over the life of the contract, he earns an additional $2 million incentive bonus at the end of the contract in 2011.
- If Grant rushes for 4,100 or more yards over the life of the contract, he earns an additional $4 million incentive bonus at the end of the contract in 2011.
Grant has already earned $10.15 million: $4.9 million in 2008 and $5.25 million in 2009
In 2008, Grant appeared in 16 regular season games contributing 312 rushing attempts for 1,203 rushing yards (3.9 average yards per carry), 4 touchdowns and 4 fumbles (3 lost). As a result, Grant earned $4.9 million in 2008:
- $3.5 million roster bonus
- $750,000 base salary
- $500,000 for appearing in 16 games
- $150,000 for finishing 6th in the NFC in rushing (source)
- $500,000 will be added to Grant's 2009 base salary for rushing for over 1,000 yards in 2008.
In 2009, Grant appeared in 16 regular season games contributing 282 rushing attempts for 1,253 rushing yards (4.4 average yards per carry), 11 touchdowns and 0 fumbles. As a result, Grant earned 5.25 million in 2009:
- $2.75 million roster bonus
- $750,000 base salary
- $500,000 for rushing over 1,000 yards in 2008
- $250,000 off-season workout bonus
- $500,000 for appearing in 16 games
- $500,000 for finishing 3rd in the NFC in rushing (source)
- $1.5 million will be added to Grant's 2010 base salary for rushing for over 1,250 yards in 2009.
Grant CAN earn $20.5 million more: $7.25 million in 2010 and $13.25 million in 2011
Before Grant ever takes a snap in 2010 he will be in line to earn $6 million:
- $1.25 million roster bonus
- $3 million base salary
- $1.5 million for rushing over 1,250 yards in 2009
- $250,000 off-season workout bonus.
Grant can easily earn another $1.25 million in 2010:
- $500,000 for finishing in the top 5 in rushing in the NFC in 2010
- $500,000 in appearance bonuses
- $250,000 if he makes the 2010 Pro Bowl.
That means Grant could easily earn $6.5 million and possibly $7.25 million if Grant has a Pro Bowl year. Grant can also add anywhere from $500,000 to $2.5 million to his 2011 base salary (rushing for 1,000 yards in 2010 earns him $500,000 more in 2011, rushing for 1,250 yards in 2010 earns him $1.5 million more in 2011 and rushing for over 1,500 yards in 2010 earns him $2.5 million more in 2011).
Before Grant ever takes a snap in 2011 (assuming he is still on the roster) he will be in line to earn $5.5 million:
- $1.75 million roster bonus
- $3.5 million base salary
- $250,000 in off-season workout bonus.
Grant has another $7.75 million in achievable incentives:
- $4 million incentive bonus at the end of the contract if Grant rushes for over 4,100 yards over the life of the contract
- $2.5 million if he rushes for over 1,500 yards in 2010
- $500,000 for finishing in the top 5 in rushing in the NFC in 2011
- $500,000 in appearance bonuses
- $250,000 if he makes the 2011 Pro Bowl.
Final Thoughts:
What have the Green Bay Packers gotten for their $10.15 million so far?
In 2008 Ryan Grant provided consistent output on the ground whether the Packers played a playoff team or a non-playoff team. Against playoff teams Grant rushed for 480 yards in 6 games or an average of 80 yards a game (92 yards against MIN, 83 yards against ATL, 105 yards against INDY, 86 yards @ TENN, 75 yards @ MIN and 39 yards against CAR). Against non-playoff teams Grant rushed for 723 in 10 games for an average of 73 yards a game (20 yards @ DET, 54 yards against DAL, 20 yards @ TB, 90 yards @ SEA, 145 yards against CHI, 67 yards @ NO, 104 yards against HOU, 56 yards @ JAX, 61 yards @ CHI and 106 yards against DET). To view Grant's 2008 game log click here.
That trend of balanced output against playoff and non-playoff teams came to a screeching halt in 2009. Check out Grant's rushing splits between playoff teams and non-playoff teams. Against playoff teams Grant rushed for 298 yards in 6 games or an average of 50 yards a game (46 yards against CIN, 51 yards @ MIN, 30 yards against MIN, 79 yards against DAL, 41 yards against BAL and 51 yards against AZ). Against non-playoff teams Grant rushed for 955 yards in 10 games or an average of 95.5 yards a game (61 yards against CHI, 99 yards @ STL, 90 yards against DET, 148 yards @ CLE, 96 yards @ TB, 129 yards against SF, 61 yards @ DET, 137 yards @ CHI, 37 yards @ PIT and 97 yards against SEA). To view Grant's 2009 game log click here.
That means in 2009 Grant piled up a bunch of rushing yards (and money) against non-playoff teams and didn't produce against playoff teams. Furthermore, since Grant signed his extension, the only playoff team he ran for over 100 against in the regular season was the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7 of 2008. The Packers pummeled the Colts in that game 34-14. Grant's stats weren't even that spectacular: 31 attempts for 105 yards for 1 touchdown and a long run of 14 (box score).
Ryan Grant is a good "one-cut" rusher in the zone blocking scheme that doesn't fumble that often (6 over his career, only 1 in 2009). That said, Grant is very one-dimensional. Grant provides little in the receiving game: 73 receptions for 458 yards for 1 touchdown for his three year Packer career.
Grant has shown flashes of being able to break long runs (think of his first run from scrimmage @ Chicago in 2009) but does that make him worth upwards of $13.25 million in 2011...certainly not. It will be interesting to see how Ted Thompson addresses this bloated contract he gave Ryan Grant in the next year and a half...
Sunday, February 7, 2010
Sunday Funday - Packers Win Super Bowl XXXI
Welcome to the inaugural "Sunday Funday" column where I look back at a great moment, play, game, day, season, etc in Wisconsin sports history.
For the inaugural "Sunday Funday" column I am going to take a look back at Super Bowl XXXI where the Green Bay Packers defeated the New England Patriots 35-21. There are some loose connections between the Green Bay Packers last Super Bowl victory and the New Orleans Saints (one of the participants in this year's Super Bowl). The city of New Orleans hosted Super Bowl XXXI. 72,301 people descended on the Louisiana Superdome on Sunday, January 26, 1997 for Super Bowl XXXI.
Notable Green Bay Packer "Duos": the Packers were a 14-point favorite heading into the game in part because they were two deep at almost every position:
- Running Back: Edgar Bennett & Dorsey Levens
- Wide Receiver: Antonio Freeman & Andre Rison
- Tight End: Mark Chmura & Keith Jackson
- Defensive End: Reggie White & Sean Jones
- Defensive Tackle: Gilbert Brown & Santana Dotson
- Outside Linebacker: Wayne Simmons & Brian Williams
- Cornerback: Craig Newsome & Doug Evans
- Safety: LeRoy Butler & Eugene Robinson
Notable New England Patriots:
- Quarterback: Drew Bledsoe
- Running Back: Curtis Martin & Dave Meggett (KR/PR)
- Fullback: Keith Byars
- Wide Receiver: Terry Glenn & Troy Brown (inactive)
- Tight End: Ben Coates
- Defensive End: Willie McGinest
- Middle Linebacker: Teddy Bruschi
- Cornerback: Ty Law
- Safety: Lawyer Milloy
- Kicker: Adam Vinatieri
Notable Green Bay Packers Coaches:
- Head Coach: Mike Holmgren
- O-Coordinator: Sherman Lewis
- TE Coach: Andy Reid
- QB Coach: Marty Mornhinweg
Notable New England Patriots Coaches:
- Head Coach: Bill Parcells
- WR Coach: Charlie Weis
- RB Coach: Maurice Carthon
- D-Coordinator: Al Groh
- D-Line Coach: Romeo Crennel
- Assistant Head & DBs Coach: Bill Belichick
Quick Game Summary:
The Green Bay Packers had a 29 year gap between Super Bowl appearances. It took the Green Bay Packers 3 hours and 21 minutes to emerge victorious over the New England Patriots 35-21. The Green Bay Packers were able to defeat the New England Patriots because of Green Bay's suffocating defense (5 sacks and 4 interceptions), timely passing by Brett Favre (14 for 27 for 246 yards, 2 TDs and Passer Rating of 107.9) and stellar special teams play.
Before Dante Hall, Devin Hester and Josh Cribbs there was 1996 Desmond Howard1 who was potent on special teams during the regular season2 and the post season3. As a result, it was only fitting that Howard became the first special teams player to win the Super Bowl MVP4.
Scoring Recap:
Game tied 0-0, Green Bay ball on their own 46 yard line, 2nd and 9 with 12 minutes left in the 1st quarter: Brett Favre threw to Andre Rison (caught at the New England 22 yard line) for a 54-yard touchdown. Chris Jacke kicked the extra point.
Green Bay leads 7-0, Green Bay ball on the New England 19 yard line, 4th and 1 with 9 minutes left in the 1st quarter: Chris Jacke kicked a 37-yard field goal.
Green Bay leads 10-0, New England ball on the Green Bay 1 yard line, 1st and goal with 7 minutes left in the 1st quarter: Drew Bledsoe threw to Keith Byars (in the end zone) for a touchdown. Adam Vinatieri kicked the extra point.
Green Bay leads 10-7, New England ball on the Green Bay 4 yard line, 1st and goal with 3 minutes left in the 1st quarter: Drew Bledsoe (bootleg right) threw to Ben Coates (in the end zone) for a touchdown. Adam Vinatieri kicked the extra point.
New England leads 14-10, Green Bay ball on their own 19 yard line, 1st and 10 with 14 minutes left in the 2nd quarter: Brett Favre threw to Antonio Freeman (caught at the Green Bay 45 yard line) for a 81-yard touchdown. Chris Jacke kicked the extra point.
Green Bay leads 17-14, Green Bay ball on the New England 14 yard line, 4th and 13 with 8 minutes left in the 2nd quarter: Chris Jacke kicked a 31-yard field goal.
Green Bay leads 20-14, Green Bay ball on the New England 2 yard line, 1st and goal with 2 minutes left in the 2nd quarter: Brett Favre rolled out left for a 2 yard touchdown run. Chris Jacke kicked the extra point.
Green Bay leads 27-14, New England ball on the Green Bay 18 yard line, 1st and 10 with 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter: Curtis Martin ran for an 18 yard touchdown run on a draw. Adam Vinatieri kicked the extra point.
Green Bay leads 27-21, New England kicked off to Green Bay with a little less than 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter: Adam Vinatieri kicked off to the Green Bay 1 yard line. Desmond Howard returned the kickoff up the middle, then cut to the left (at the Green Bay 35 yard line) and returned the ball for a 99-yard touchdown. Brett Favre rolled out right and threw to Mark Chmura for the 2-point conversion.
5 Green Bay Packers of the game:
#5) LeRoy Butler (SS): 7 solo tackles and 1 sack
#4) Antonio Freeman (WR): 3 catches for 105 yards and 1 touchdown
#3) Reggie White (DE): 3 tackles and 3 sacks
#2) Brett Favre (QB):
- Passing: 14 for 27 for 246 yards and 2 touchdowns (2 pt. conversion) for a quarter back rating of 107.9
- Rushing: 4 attempts for 12 yards and 1 touchdown
#1) Desmond Howard (KR/PR):
- Punt Returns: 5 returns (1 fair catch) for 90 yards (long of 34 yards)
- Kickoff Returns: 4 returns for 154 yards (long of 99 yards) and 1 touchdown
Other Resources:
- Super Bowl XXXI Box Score
- Super Bowl XXXI Play-by-play
Footnotes:
1 Howard won the 1991 Heisman Trophy at the University of Michigan. In 1992, Howard was drafted in the 1st round (4th overall) by the Washington Redskins. After flaming out in Washington (1992-1994) and Jacksonville (1995), Howard joined the Green Bay Packers on a one-year $300,000 contract.
2 In 16 regular season games in 1996 Howard had:
- 58 punt returns for 875 yards (long of 92 yards) and 3 touchdowns
- 22 kickoff returns for 460 yards (long of 40 yards) and 0 touchdowns
(source)
3 In 3 playoff games (including the Super Bowl) in 1996 Howard had:
- 9 punt returns for 210 yards (long of 71 yards) and 1 touchdown.
- 9 kickoff returns for 277 yards (long of 99 yards) and 1 touchdown.
(source)
4 Joined Roger Staubach, Jim Plunkett, and Marcus Allen as the only players in history (as of 2010) to win the Heisman Trophy and Super Bowl MVP.
For the inaugural "Sunday Funday" column I am going to take a look back at Super Bowl XXXI where the Green Bay Packers defeated the New England Patriots 35-21. There are some loose connections between the Green Bay Packers last Super Bowl victory and the New Orleans Saints (one of the participants in this year's Super Bowl). The city of New Orleans hosted Super Bowl XXXI. 72,301 people descended on the Louisiana Superdome on Sunday, January 26, 1997 for Super Bowl XXXI.
Notable Green Bay Packer "Duos": the Packers were a 14-point favorite heading into the game in part because they were two deep at almost every position:
- Running Back: Edgar Bennett & Dorsey Levens
- Wide Receiver: Antonio Freeman & Andre Rison
- Tight End: Mark Chmura & Keith Jackson
- Defensive End: Reggie White & Sean Jones
- Defensive Tackle: Gilbert Brown & Santana Dotson
- Outside Linebacker: Wayne Simmons & Brian Williams
- Cornerback: Craig Newsome & Doug Evans
- Safety: LeRoy Butler & Eugene Robinson
Notable New England Patriots:
- Quarterback: Drew Bledsoe
- Running Back: Curtis Martin & Dave Meggett (KR/PR)
- Fullback: Keith Byars
- Wide Receiver: Terry Glenn & Troy Brown (inactive)
- Tight End: Ben Coates
- Defensive End: Willie McGinest
- Middle Linebacker: Teddy Bruschi
- Cornerback: Ty Law
- Safety: Lawyer Milloy
- Kicker: Adam Vinatieri
Notable Green Bay Packers Coaches:
- Head Coach: Mike Holmgren
- O-Coordinator: Sherman Lewis
- TE Coach: Andy Reid
- QB Coach: Marty Mornhinweg
Notable New England Patriots Coaches:
- Head Coach: Bill Parcells
- WR Coach: Charlie Weis
- RB Coach: Maurice Carthon
- D-Coordinator: Al Groh
- D-Line Coach: Romeo Crennel
- Assistant Head & DBs Coach: Bill Belichick
Quick Game Summary:
The Green Bay Packers had a 29 year gap between Super Bowl appearances. It took the Green Bay Packers 3 hours and 21 minutes to emerge victorious over the New England Patriots 35-21. The Green Bay Packers were able to defeat the New England Patriots because of Green Bay's suffocating defense (5 sacks and 4 interceptions), timely passing by Brett Favre (14 for 27 for 246 yards, 2 TDs and Passer Rating of 107.9) and stellar special teams play.
Before Dante Hall, Devin Hester and Josh Cribbs there was 1996 Desmond Howard1 who was potent on special teams during the regular season2 and the post season3. As a result, it was only fitting that Howard became the first special teams player to win the Super Bowl MVP4.
Scoring Recap:
Game tied 0-0, Green Bay ball on their own 46 yard line, 2nd and 9 with 12 minutes left in the 1st quarter: Brett Favre threw to Andre Rison (caught at the New England 22 yard line) for a 54-yard touchdown. Chris Jacke kicked the extra point.
Green Bay leads 7-0, Green Bay ball on the New England 19 yard line, 4th and 1 with 9 minutes left in the 1st quarter: Chris Jacke kicked a 37-yard field goal.
Green Bay leads 10-0, New England ball on the Green Bay 1 yard line, 1st and goal with 7 minutes left in the 1st quarter: Drew Bledsoe threw to Keith Byars (in the end zone) for a touchdown. Adam Vinatieri kicked the extra point.
Green Bay leads 10-7, New England ball on the Green Bay 4 yard line, 1st and goal with 3 minutes left in the 1st quarter: Drew Bledsoe (bootleg right) threw to Ben Coates (in the end zone) for a touchdown. Adam Vinatieri kicked the extra point.
New England leads 14-10, Green Bay ball on their own 19 yard line, 1st and 10 with 14 minutes left in the 2nd quarter: Brett Favre threw to Antonio Freeman (caught at the Green Bay 45 yard line) for a 81-yard touchdown. Chris Jacke kicked the extra point.
Green Bay leads 17-14, Green Bay ball on the New England 14 yard line, 4th and 13 with 8 minutes left in the 2nd quarter: Chris Jacke kicked a 31-yard field goal.
Green Bay leads 20-14, Green Bay ball on the New England 2 yard line, 1st and goal with 2 minutes left in the 2nd quarter: Brett Favre rolled out left for a 2 yard touchdown run. Chris Jacke kicked the extra point.
Green Bay leads 27-14, New England ball on the Green Bay 18 yard line, 1st and 10 with 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter: Curtis Martin ran for an 18 yard touchdown run on a draw. Adam Vinatieri kicked the extra point.
Green Bay leads 27-21, New England kicked off to Green Bay with a little less than 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter: Adam Vinatieri kicked off to the Green Bay 1 yard line. Desmond Howard returned the kickoff up the middle, then cut to the left (at the Green Bay 35 yard line) and returned the ball for a 99-yard touchdown. Brett Favre rolled out right and threw to Mark Chmura for the 2-point conversion.
5 Green Bay Packers of the game:
#5) LeRoy Butler (SS): 7 solo tackles and 1 sack
#4) Antonio Freeman (WR): 3 catches for 105 yards and 1 touchdown
#3) Reggie White (DE): 3 tackles and 3 sacks
#2) Brett Favre (QB):
- Passing: 14 for 27 for 246 yards and 2 touchdowns (2 pt. conversion) for a quarter back rating of 107.9
- Rushing: 4 attempts for 12 yards and 1 touchdown
#1) Desmond Howard (KR/PR):
- Punt Returns: 5 returns (1 fair catch) for 90 yards (long of 34 yards)
- Kickoff Returns: 4 returns for 154 yards (long of 99 yards) and 1 touchdown
Other Resources:
- Super Bowl XXXI Box Score
- Super Bowl XXXI Play-by-play
Footnotes:
1 Howard won the 1991 Heisman Trophy at the University of Michigan. In 1992, Howard was drafted in the 1st round (4th overall) by the Washington Redskins. After flaming out in Washington (1992-1994) and Jacksonville (1995), Howard joined the Green Bay Packers on a one-year $300,000 contract.
2 In 16 regular season games in 1996 Howard had:
- 58 punt returns for 875 yards (long of 92 yards) and 3 touchdowns
- 22 kickoff returns for 460 yards (long of 40 yards) and 0 touchdowns
(source)
3 In 3 playoff games (including the Super Bowl) in 1996 Howard had:
- 9 punt returns for 210 yards (long of 71 yards) and 1 touchdown.
- 9 kickoff returns for 277 yards (long of 99 yards) and 1 touchdown.
(source)
4 Joined Roger Staubach, Jim Plunkett, and Marcus Allen as the only players in history (as of 2010) to win the Heisman Trophy and Super Bowl MVP.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Tweet Beat...Andrew Bogut Gambling Style
Milwaukee Buck Andrew Bogut continues to push the edge of the envelope via Twitter (see previous "Tweet Beat" from December 2009). Bogut tweeted at roughly 11 a.m. on Thursday, February 4, 2010: "About to fill my pockets up playing poker on this long flight to nyc. Alllllll in."
May be I am overreacting but Bogut better choose his words carefully in light of Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton getting suspended by the NBA for the rest of the season (source). The suspension stemmed from a disagreement over a gambling debt incurred on a team flight that escalated to both players bring guns to the locker room to "settle the debts".
Bogut is a fun loving guy but NBA Commissioner David Stern is not taking NBA player gambling lightly. As a result of the Arenas/Crittenton incident some teams have moved to outlaw gambling on team flights. If Bogut and the rest of the Bucks want to gamble on team flights they better do it without broadcasting it to the world.
May be I am overreacting but Bogut better choose his words carefully in light of Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton getting suspended by the NBA for the rest of the season (source). The suspension stemmed from a disagreement over a gambling debt incurred on a team flight that escalated to both players bring guns to the locker room to "settle the debts".
Bogut is a fun loving guy but NBA Commissioner David Stern is not taking NBA player gambling lightly. As a result of the Arenas/Crittenton incident some teams have moved to outlaw gambling on team flights. If Bogut and the rest of the Bucks want to gamble on team flights they better do it without broadcasting it to the world.
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