I took an in-depth look at the Green Bay Packers roster heading into the 2013 NFL Draft, following the draft, there are now a bunch of new players added to the roster. The Packers started the 2013 NFL Draft with 8 draft picks.
After general manager Ted Thompson traded back three times and up once, he added 11 new players to the roster.
Following
the draft, Thompson signed a number of undrafted free agents* and
offered open tryouts as well**. Although there is always a good chance an
undrafted free agent makes the opening day 53-man roster (think Sam Shields or
Frank Zombo), we don't have enough information on those guys yet so I am
not going to give any of them one of the coveted 53 roster spots.
I made the same predictions last year and correctly "predicted" 45 of 53 players that made the initial 53-man roster to start the 2012 season. I say "predicted" because the point of the post is for me to explain who I would keep on the 53-man roster and why. When some of those guys don't make the roster, I am not technically wrong, I just have a difference of opinion with Thompson sometimes.
Keeping that in mind, here are my thoughts on the 53 guys that I would keep today if I
were in charge of making the roster decisions for the start of the 2013 season:
Quarterback:
Cut: B.J. Coleman
Keep: Aaron Rodgers and Graham Harrell
Analysis: The Packers and Rodgers agreed to a five-year, $110 million extension right as Day 2 of the 2013 NFL Draft was about to begin. Rodgers is arguably the best player in the NFL so he deserves to be paid that way, but keep in mind since there is a salary cap in the NFL so paying Rodgers that much money will come at the expense of re-signing some quality players currently on the roster. That said, you can't win in the NFL without a top flight quarterback, so I don't begrudge Rodgers or the Packers. The real question is whether Harrell or Coleman wins the backup job. If Harrell plays this preseason like he did to end the preseason last year, he deserves the roster spot over Coleman, but I would keep it an open competition throughout training camp until one of those two guys performs remarkably better.
Running Back:
Cut: James Starks
Keep: Eddie Lacy, DuJuan Harris, Johnathan Franklin, and Alex Green
Analysis: The shocker of the 2013 NFL Draft for the Packers was Thompson drafting not one but two running backs in the first four rounds. Thompson traded back in round two so he missed out on Wisconsin running back Montee Ball but luckily still got Lacy. Despite drafting Lacy, Thompson traded up in the fourth round to draft Franklin. After having a pedestrian backfield for a number of years, all of a sudden the Packers have an impressive stable of versatile running backs. If healthy, I see Lacy, Franklin, and Green as locks to make the roster just based
on their draft position. That leaves Harris and Starks fighting for the
last running back roster spot unless Thompson does the unthinkable and keeps five
running backs. Since Harris was the starting running back to end last
season and was generally healthy last season, I gave him the last roster spot ahead of of the talented but often injured Starks. If Lacy can stay healthy, which is the reason that he fell to the end of the second round, I would give him the first chance to win the starting running back job for the Packers in 2013.
Fullback:
Cut: None
Keep: John Kuhn
Analysis: I am shocked that Kuhn is still on the roster. Given Kuhn's expensive salary, if any of the tight ends can show the ability to block as a fullback, his days in Green Bay could be numbered. Let's monitor Kuhn throughout training camp because with the influx of young guys at running back, Kuhn's days in Green Bay could be numbered.
Wide Receiver:
Cut: Jarrett Boykin, Sederrik Cunningham, and Kevin Dorsey
Keep: James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jeremy Ross, and Charles Johnson
Analysis: After Jones, Nelson, and Cobb excelled last year with Greg Jennings out injured for most of the season, the Packers knew they had a nice trio so they let Jennings leave via free agency. Ultimately Jennings signed with the Queens (Minnesota Vikings). Even with Jennings leaving the Packers, they still have some big decisions to make at wide receiver over the next two seasons because Jones is set to become a free agent after this season and Nelson is set to become a free agent after next season. Thus it might make sense to keep a 6th wide receiver this year to groom him in case the wide receiver exodus continues, but since roster spots are so scarce, I can't keep a 6th wide receiver at this point until one of the younger guys shows they are worth it during training camp.
Tight End:
Cut: Ryan Taylor and Brandon Bostick
Keep: Jermichael Finley, D.J. Williams, Andrew Quarless, and Matthew Mulligan
Analysis: The Packers are set to pay Finley $8.5 million this season. Now that Rodgers and Claymaker are extended, I know it seems crazy, but the Packers should pay Finley even more money this season as a part of long-term deal that lowers his salary cap number in subsequent seasons. After Finley, the Packers have a ton of questions marks since they let Tom Crabtree leave via free agency, so hopefully one of the younger tight ends can "make the jump" this off-season because the NFL continues to gravitate towards playing two tight ends.
Offensive Tackle:
Cut: Andrew Datko and Kevin Hughes
Keep: Bryan Bulaga, Don Barclay, Marshall Newhouse, Derek Sherrod, and David Bakhtiari
Analysis: There are mixed reviews on whether Bakhtiari fits better as a tackle or a guard so that makes me think he would struggle at left tackle, which means the Packers have a glut of right tackles whose last name starts with the letter "B" (Bulaga, Barclay, and Bakhtiari) to go along with two questions marks at left tackle: Newhouse (inconsistent play) and Sherrod (perpetually injured). Even before the Packers drafted Bakhtiari, I said they said they should open camp with Bulaga at left tackle and Barclay at right tackle. Even with Bakhtiari in the fold, I still say the Packers give Bulaga and Barclay the first chance at left and right tackles respectively then let the healthiest/most consistent guys get the reps behind them.
Offensive Guard:
Cut: None
Keep: Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang, and Greg Van Roten
Analysis: Given the quality players the Packers have at guard, I understand not making it a priority in the draft, but when a versatile player like Barrett Jones (can play guard or center) is still available in the fourth round, you have to draft him. The Packers decided not to proceed that way, instead they are going to roll with Lang at left guard, Sitton at right guard, and Van Roten as their primary backup.
Center:
Cut: Garth Gerhart
Keep: Evan Dietrich-Smith and J.C. Tretter
Analysis: Despite low-balling EDS with their restricted free agent offer, the Packers still secured his services for 2013. The question now is whether Tretter can slide all the way from tackle over to center. If not, the Packers have to consider Van Roten or someone currently not on the roster since Grehart looks like nothing more than a camp body at this point. The lack of depth at center highlights how silly it was for the Packers not to snag one of the centers available in the third or fourth round of the draft (i.e. Brian Schwenke or Barrett Jones).
Defensive End:
Cut: None
PUP: Jerel Worhty
Keep: C.J. Wilson, Datone Jones, Mike Neal, and Mike Daniels
Analysis: I would be shocked if Worthy was able to recover from the horrific knee injury that he suffered at the end of 2012 to be ready just nine months later for the start of the 2013 season. Luckily if Jones is even 75% of the player that he is advertised to be, it won't matter because early reports are that Jones is Cullen Jenkins 2.0. The interesting spot to watch is whether Neal or Daniels get cut if Worthy is healthy by mid-season.
Defensive Tackle:
Cut: Johnny Jolly and Jordan Miller
Keep: B.J. Raji, Ryan Pickett, and Josh Boyd
Analysis: The best two defensive tackles on the roster, Raji and Pickett, are set to become free agents after the season so that position has the most uncertainty following next season. Given their differences in age, I see the Packers keeping Raji even if that means using the franchise tag. The more interesting case is Pickett. Part of me thinks it makes sense to give Pickett a two-year extension now, but move all the guarnteed money into this season, so the Packers could cut Pickett in 2014 or 2015 without creating any dead money on the salary cap. After Raji and Pickett it comes down to keeping Jolly or Boyd. It pains me to cut Jolly in favor of Boyd but given all of Jolly's off
the field problems, the Packers are much more likely to give the benefit
of the doubt to a 5th round draft pick from the 2013 NFL Draft instead
of a 30-year that hasn't played football since 2009 because he was in
jail.
Middle Linebacker:
Cut: Jamari Lattimore and Sam Barrington
Keep: Desmond Bishop, A.J. Hawk, Robert Francois, and Terrell Manning
Analysis: It makes sense that Hawk took a pay cut because otherwise the Packers would have cut him, but I actually think he should have taken more of a financial haircut. In a somewhat surprising move the Packers cut former starting middle linebacker D.J. Smith before the draft. Sure Smith is coming off a serious knee injury and is undersized for the position, but given his miniscule salary by NFL standards, it seemed worth keeping Smith around. If cutting Smith was a shocker, I was even more shocked when I read reports that Bishop was being shopped during the draft. I know Bishop has a pretty significant cap number, but with him coming off a serious injury that kept him out all last season, I can't imagine the Packers would get much more than a conditional 6th or 7th round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. Thus why trade Bishop for such a small pittance? Leaving that aside, the last roster two middle linebacker roster spots will come down to Francois, Manning, Lattimore, or Barrington. Special teams ability will most likely be the determining factor since none of the four guys just mentioned should regularly play in the base defense in 2013.
Outside Linebacker:
Cut: Dezmen Moses and Micah Johnson
Keep: Clay Matthews, Brad Jones, Nick Perry, and Nathan Palmer
Analysis: I explained my reservations with the extension the Packers signed Jones to
earlier this off-season, since the Packers committed to Jones though, he is a lock to make the roster. Especially when
you look at the quality, cheap talent the Packers will have to cut
instead of Jones, it seems like bad business. The Packers continue to cycle undrafted free agents as backups at
outside linebacker. Last season Moses stuck ahead of So'oto. The early
reviews on Palmer is that he has a chance to supplant Moses, so I gave
him the roster spot ahead of Moses. Leaving all that aside, I hope to see a healthy Perry start opposite a clean (?), rich Claymaker at outside linebacker for the Packers to start 2013.
Cornerback:
Cut: Davon House, James Nixon and Loyce Means
Keep: Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, Jarrett Bush, and Micah Hyde
Analysis: The Packers have a ton of young, cheap talent at cornerback right now (Hayward, House, Hyde, Nixon, and Means) so the Packers have to decide how they want to deal with some expensive veterans (Williams and Bush) because Shields is going to get paid big money this off-seasons somewhere, so how they handle the expensive veteran cornerbacks will determine whether Shields is playing in Green Bay in 2014. Despite reports that Hyde is going to focus on playing cornerback, he will need to excel on special teams and at least show the ability to contribute at safety, otherwise House might get the roster spot ahead of Hyde.
Safety:
Cut: Chaz Powell
Keep: Morgan Burnett, M.D. Jennings, Jeron McMillian, and Sean Richardson
Analysis: I am intrigued by Richardson because he strikes me as a rich man's Aaron Rouse, which is a pretty nice player to have as your fourth safety. The problem is that the marginal talent between Richardson and the second best safety on the roster (toss up between Jennings and McMillian) is not very much. Thus the Packers still only have one stud safety followed by three guys with a ton of potential. I wish I knew who was going to emerge in 2013 opposite Burnett but I am confident that one of the trio (Jennings, McMillian, and Richardson) will have a big breakout this season.
Specialists:
Cut:Giorgio Tavecchio (K)
Keep: Tim Masthay (P), Brett Goode (LS), and Mason Crosby (K)
Analysis: Absent injury, Masthay and Goode are locks to make the team. Despite Crosby's bloated salary and horrific struggles last season, I need to see Tavecchio kick before I can give him Crosby's roster spot.
It is hard to trim the roster to 53 players and that is even without factoring in undrafted rookie free agents, which will possibly mean a few more roster spots will have to be created ,since almost every year at least one undrafted rookie free agent makes the final 53-man roster. The last five players I cut were Davon House, Ryan Taylor, Dezmen Moses, Johnny Jolly, and Jarrett Boykin but I am sure the roster churn will continue so stay tuned.
With all the Packers coverage in this space lately, I am going to switch gears to other Cheesehead sports for the next few months. The 2012-13 Milwaukee Bucks ended their season with a whimper by getting swept by the Miami Heat, so check back this Sunday for my final rankings.
Footnotes:
* = Matt Brown (QB, Illinois St.), Ben Ericksen (S, Illinois St.), Patrick Lewis (C, Texas A&M), Andy Mulumba (DE/OLB, Eastern Michigan), Angelo Pease (RB, Kansas State), Gilbert Pena (DT, Mississippi), Jake Stoneburner (TE, Ohio State), Lane Taylor (OG, Oklahoma St.), Jeremy Vujnovich (OT, Louisiana College), Myles White (WR, Louisiana Tech), Devin Willis (CB, Northern Arizona, and James Winchester (LS, Oklahoma) - (source).
** = Cedrick Moore (S, Stony Brook) and Damond Smith (CB, South Alabama) - (source).
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