Just a mere three weeks ago Manchester City trailed Manchester United by
eight points so the league title look settled. Unfortunately for
United's sake, the month of April has not been kind them. After
United's shock loss away to potentially relegation bound Wigan earlier
this month, United followed that up a few weeks later with a 4-4 tie at
home to Everton despite leading by two goals with less than 10 minutes
remaining.
That all meant instead of coasting to the league title, United only
lead City by three points ahead of the most anticipated Manchester Derby
of my lifetime. Heading into the match, ESPN's soccer power index
(SPI) claimed that City had a mere 27.7% chance of winning the league
title.
Luckily I was able to watch the match live with my buddy Brian at Stocks & Blondes despite the weekday kickoff at 2 pm CST from the baby blue Etihad Stadium.
After a back and forth first half, David Silva's corner kick found Vincent
Kompany's head thanks to poor marking by Chris Smalling for a powerful
finish to put City up 1-0 in stoppage time of the first half. City has a league leading 14 goals from
corner kicks, which was quite a home slump buster for City against
United since City hasn't scored a home goal against United in over four
matches.
Besides the goal, the only other real noteworthy happenstance in the
match followed Nigel de Jong aka Kung Fu Panda's slightly cynical
challenge on Danny Welbeck. United manager Sir Alex Ferguson got vocal
with City manager Roberto Mancini. City had a few other chances
throughout the match but no real on-target scares.
The five minutes of stoppage time at the end of the second half felt
like the longest fives minutes of my life, especially since I was
having flashbacks of Michel Owen's winner in the 47th minute of second
half stoppage time to give United a home win over City in the 2009-10
EPL season.
Luckily City hung on to complete the double over for United for only
the second time in 40 years. Don't get too excited yet fellow City fans
though because the last time City completed the double over United,
unfortunately United won the league title that year.
All rooting interest aside, City was the better side than United.
City out shot United 15 to 5 and none of United's shots were even on
goal. That was due in large part to the fact that City was much more
effective in the attacking third. City completed roughly 70% (101 of
147) of their passes in the attacking third while United only completed
56.7% (59 of 104) in the the attacking third.
Don't get me wrong, this obviosuly was not the 6-1 beat down
that City gave United at Old Trafford but it might be the most
significant win for City in their 131 year rivalry.
City and United both have 83 points and two
matches remaining. The good news is that City would win the league if
the season were to end today thanks to a +61 goal differential, eight
better than United.
Unfortunately City has a much tougher slate of matches since they
are away against Newcastle (currently 5th in the EPL) and home against
Queens Park Rangers (currently 17th in the EPL) while United hosts
Swansea City (currently 12th in the EPL) and away against Sunderland
(currently 11th in the EPL). Despite having a much tougher slate of matches,
SPI now claims that City has a 65.8% of winning the
EPL.
City has not won the top league in England since 1968 when
they clinched the title with a 4-3 win over Newcastle. Typical City
would be wilting against Newcastle to give away the league title but
winning a match like today over United marked a new era for City. Don't
get me wrong, City could still stumble against Newcastle and/or QPR but
they control their own destiny. That means for the first time in my
lifetime, it is City's title to lose.
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